管理动荡市场中的风险.pdf

1、Presented byandThe Importance of a Marketing Plan in Good Times&Bad February 28,2025Main Points to Consider at a Critical Time What has changed?What are we planting in 25?Risk-management is more than corn/bean pricesWithout a commitment to renewable fuels,US farmer could face rough waters ahead 3456

2、7March Intentions can pull either way in relation to Ag Outlook acreage estimate,but strong bias towards 1M acre deviation or less3 times in 12 years for corn,once for beans8For corn,Outlook Forum ending stocks have exceeded the following January final stocks 5 of the last 5 times and 9 of the last

3、12 years.Beans OF#has exceeded January final 8 of 12 years.Corn 10Producer attempt at profitability in 2024 1112Corn S&D 1495?15MM Net long 343k contracts.Corn futures were well above$5 in past instances of large MM net long1617Yield Reductions for Corn and Soybeans were the biggest surprise of the

4、report 2ndlargest cut for both in the last 20+years1819Trend of higher stocks and stocks/usage has stalled with this years big export program Global stocks/use continues to decline under 25%for first time since 20132021 is the only year in the last eight we have seen a year over year improvement in

5、world stocks/use9%increasefor US production since 201583%increase for South America20*Production estimated to be up 4.3%from LY21Ending war in Ukraine has potential to bring 5 Mha back into production22Avg corn production 2018-2021 was 36 mmt,which is 10 mmt above this year What if Ukraine war ended

6、 and US farmers plant 95M+corn acres?23No doubt the balance sheet will look different when Ukraine gets going again?*Lots of assumptions,but leaving everything else constant and only accounting for increases in US&Ukraine production and usage pulls stocks/use back up to 10%2425Drop in ending stocks