美国畜牧业和家禽业展望.pdf

1、Office of the Chief EconomistOutlook for the U.S.Livestock and PoultryPresented ByMichael McConnellWorld Agricultural Outlook Board,USDAOffice of the Chief EconomistAssumptions of the WASDE Policies in Place No Additional Animal Disease Outbreaks Normal Weather Conditions2Office of the Chief Economi

2、stFeed Costs Continue to Fall From Relative Highs in 20232021/2022 MY2022/23 MY2023/24 MY2024/25 MYCorn(per bushel)$6.00$6.54$4.55$4.35Soybean Meal(per short ton)$439.81$451.91$384.11$310Alfalfa hay(per short ton)$216$273$225$179(May-Dec.average)3Office of the Chief EconomistTotal Red Meat and Poult

3、ry Production Increasing In 20252022202320242025YOY ChangeBillion PoundsPercentBeef28.29126.96726.98826.565-1.6Pork26.99627.30227.79028.5302.7Broiler46.20746.38746.98847.6251.4Turkey5.2225.4575.1214.970-2.9Total Red Meat55.47254.44854.95155.2660.6Total Poultry52.00152.43152.66953.1650.9Total Meat107

4、.472106.880107.620108.4310.8Eggs(Million Dozen)9.1179.1429.0278.960-0.74Office of the Chief EconomistTight Beef Supplies Expected to Reduce Exports,Raise Imports2022202320242025YOY ChangeBillion PoundsPercentExportsBeef3.5443.0383.0032.795-6.9Pork6.3466.8247.1157.2952.5Broiler7.2877.2606.7246.605-1.

5、8ImportsBeef3.3903.7254.6354.7702.9Pork1.3441.1421.1481.1702.05Office of the Chief EconomistIncreased Higher Broiler and Pork Per Capita Disappearance Drive Higher Total Domestic Use2022202320242025YOY ChangePounds Per CapitaPercentBeef59.158.159.759.1-0.9Pork51.150.250.451.42.0Broiler98.999.5101.91

6、03.11.1Turkey14.514.813.913.4-3.5Total Meat226.7225.4228.9230.10.5Eggs(number)280.6279.3273.8270.7-1.16Office of the Chief EconomistHigher Livestock and Poultry Prices Expected for 20252022202320242025YOY ChangePercentFed Steers($/cwt)144.40175.54187.122017.3Feeder Steers($/cwt)165.94218.69251.96274