2025年农业经济与对外贸易展望：首席经济学家Seth Meyer.pdf

1、Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief EconomistCommodity prices appeared to bottom out over the last yearnearby corn,soybean and wheat(HRW)futures20246810121416182/24/20002/24/20012/24/20022/24/20032/24/20042/24/20052/24/20062/24/20072/24/20082/24/20092/24/20102/24/20112/24/20122/24/20132

2、/24/20142/24/20152/24/20162/24/20172/24/20182/24/20192/24/20202/24/20212/24/20222/24/20232/24/20242/24/2025$/buCornSoybeanWheatData:BloombergOffice of the Chief EconomistCorn and soybeans driving the forecast decrease in crop cash receipts in 2025Vegetable/melon and cotton receipts expected to incre

3、ase.Change from 2024FCorn-6.6%Soybeans-8.8%Fruits/Nuts-2.0%Veg/Melons+2.1%Wheat-5.7%Cotton+7.6%Bil.Real$F=forecast.Values are adjusted for inflation using the U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis Gross Domestic Product Price Index(BEA API series code:A191RG)rebased to 2025 by USDA,Economic Research Servi

4、ce.Source:USDA,Economic Research Service,Farm Income and Wealth Statistics.Data as of February 6,2025.614430291160102030405060708090100CornSoybeansFruits&nutsVegetables&melonsWheatCotton2021202220232024F2025FOffice of the Chief Economist0501001502002500102030405060708090World Trade,MMTExporter Stock

5、s,MMTU.S.Stocks(Left axis)Other Exporter Stocks(Left axis)World Trade(Right axis)Corn stocks in exporting countries decline,boosting pricesSource:USDA.Other exporters are Argentina,Brazil,Ukraine,and Russia.Trade Year basis.Office of the Chief EconomistHigher corn prices support area expansion in Br

6、azil;critical phase of growing season ahead Cash Prices in Sorriso,Mato GrossoSource:Refinitiv,IMEA.Slow start to planting of the safrina corn crop0102030405060708090Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Re