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Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trendsAuthors Arun Panemangalore Padiyar,1 Sourabh Kumar Dubey,1 Baban Bayan,1 Vishnumurthy Mohan Chadag,2 Ben Belton,3,4 Joykrushna Jena,5 Suseela Mathew,6 Lakshmi Narasimha Murthy,7 Muthusamy Karthikeyan8 and Chandra Krishna Murthy.9Affiliations1 WorldFish India,New Delhi-110008,India2 WorldFish Headquarters,Jalan Batu Maung,11960 Bayan Lepas,Penang,Malaysia3 International Food Policy Research Institute,South Asia Region,Dhaka,Bangladesh 4 Department of Agricultural,Food and Resource Economics,Michigan State University,East Lansing,US5 Indian Council of Agricultural Research,Pusa,New Delhi-110 012,India6 ICAR-Central Institute of Fisheries Technology,Cochin-682 029,Kerala,India7 National Fisheries Development Board,Department of Fisheries,Ministry of Fisheries,Animal Husbandry and Dairying,Government of India,Telangana 500052,India8 Marine Products Export Development Authority,Kochi,Kerala 682036,India 9 Aquaculture consultant,Mysore 570023,Karnataka,India CitationThis publication should be cited as:Padiyar PA,Dubey SK,Bayan B,Mohan CV,Belton B,Jena J,Susheela M,Murthy LN,Karthikeyan M and Murthy CK.2024.Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends.New Delhi,India:WorldFish.AcknowledgmentsThis work was undertaken as part of the CGIAR Initiative on Aquatic Foods,funded by CGIAR Trust Fund donors and the ICAR-CGIAR collaboration.Design and productionChua Seong Lee,Thavamaler Ramanathan,Sabrina Chong and Rajita Majumdar,WorldFish.Photo creditsFront cover,pages 11,14,19,32,38,Sourabh Kumar Dubey,WorldFish;page 9,Divya Padiyar.ContentsLists of abbreviations 4Executive summary 7Population and economy 7Fish production 7Per capita fish consumption 7Fish-consuming population 7Spatial distribution of fish consumption 71.Background and introduction 82.Data source and methodology 113.Findings of the study 123.1.Key findings for India from 2005 to 2021 123.2.Fish consumption patterns in India 153.3.Pattern of fish consumption by state 233.4.Fish production and per capita fish consumption in India 313.5.Fish consumption in India vs.other countries 343.6.Fish consumption by income group 363.7.Future of fish consumption and fish demand in India 37Conclusion 40References 41Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 3Lists of abbreviations CAGR compound annual growth rate GDP gross domestic product GNI gross national income LMICs lower-and middle-income countries MER market exchange rate NFHS National Family Health SurveyNNI net national income OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentPFCE private final consumption expenditure Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 4Dr.Himanshu PathakSecretary(DARE)&Director General(ICAR),110 001GOVERNMENT OF INDIADEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH&EDUCATION(DARE)ANDINDIAN COUNCIL OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH(ICAR)MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE KRISHI BHAVAN,NEW DELHI 110001Tel.:23382629;23386711 Fax:91-11-23384773 E-mail:dg.icarnic.in(Himanshu Pathak)November 13,2023New DelhiForewordI am truly delighted to announce the collaborative effort of WorldFish,the Indian Council of Agriculture Research(ICAR)under the ICAR-CGIAR research collaboration framework,and other national institutes in unveiling the monograph titled“Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends.”Driven by comprehensive data and illustrious research,this publication endeavors to explore and elucidate the dynamic landscape of fish consumption in India.India,blessed with abundant aquatic resources and favorable climatic conditions,has long been a pivotal contributor to global fisheries.The aquatic food production sector in India,encompassing marine and inland capture fisheries and aquaculture,stands as a vibrant pillar that sustains the nation,providing nutrition and livelihoods to the teeming millions.In India,fish stands as a beacon of nourishment,nutrition and affordability for over 70%of the population.It holds a profound cultural,religious and traditional significance within the local food ecosystem,particularly in coastal and riverine regions.Remarkably,fish consumption is surging faster than the global population growth rate,attributed to rising incomes,heightened awareness of its health benefits and the expanding urban footprint.Simultaneously,domestic demand for fish in India is on the rise,positioning the nation as the third-largest consumer of fish in the world by volume.However,per capita fish consumption in India continues to lag behind the global average.In this context,this document delves into various facets of fish consumption behavior and establishes explicit links between fish consumption and societal and economic indicators.The monograph also projects per capita fish consumption,the demand-supply gap and other critical aspects,offering insights into the future trajectory of the fisheries sector in the country.I am confident that this monograph will prove invaluable to students,researchers,government organizations,policymakers,fisher cooperatives,private sector players and various stakeholders,facilitating a deeper comprehension of fish consumption patterns in India.It serves as a roadmap to bolster fish consumption in tandem with fish production,fostering the well-being of our nation.I extend my heartfelt congratulations and best wishes to all the authors for their exceptional contribution to this publication.Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 5ForewordIt is my immense pleasure to announce the publication,“Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends”a collaborative endeavor among WorldFish,the International Food Policy Research Institute,and esteemed Government of India institutions,including the Indian Council of Agricultural Research(ICAR),the National Fisheries Development Board of Ministry of Fisheries,Animal Husbandry&Dairying,and the Marine Products Export Development Authority,as well as other leading organizations.ICAR and its affiliated institutes have long been committed partners of WorldFish,and this publication stands as a testament to the unwavering commitment and innovative spirit that define our collaborative work in the fisheries and aquaculture sector.For centuries,fish has played a pivotal role in the Indian diet.India,a megadiverse nation blessed with an array of aquatic resources,holds the key to unlocking immense potential for transformative growth within the fisheries sector.Fish consumption in India is a nuanced tapestry influenced by geography,climate,culture,religion,and household traditions.It represents a complex interplay of factors that shape consumer choices,behaviors,and the availability and accessibility of fish.This monograph seeks to unravel the dynamics,patterns and trends in fish consumption,recognizing the diversity across India.The findings of this study underscore the substantial room for growth in fish consumption while shedding light on regional disparities.These insights offer valuable guidance for informed policy formulation and effective intervention strategies.I believe that this pioneering document will serve as an indispensable resource for researchers and policymakers,empowering them to design well-informed policies and interventions aimed at enhancing the fish consumption landscape in India,particularly in addressing critical challenges such as undernutrition.As we embark on our journey forward,WorldFish and CGIAR remain steadfast in their commitment to collaboration and the pursuit of scientific innovation in partnership with ICAR under the ICAR-CGIAR research collaboration and One CGIAR global initiatives,especially the Aquatic Foods initiative.Together,we aspire to create sustainable and equitable aquatic food systems in India.I extend my heartfelt congratulations and best wishes to all the authors for their outstanding contributions to this publication.Essam Yassin Mohammed Director General&CGIAR Senior Director of Aquatic Food Systems Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 6Executive summaryIndia is endowed with rich aquatic resources and favorable conditions that have long made it a significant contributor to global fisheries.The consumption of fish has deep historical roots in the country,with archaeological evidence tracing back to 2500 BCE.Beyond its role as food,fish held considerable trade value in antiquity.Today,fish remains a cornerstone of the Indian diet,embodying the countrys culinary heritage and offering a nutritious and affordable source of food for the people.Apart from being a vital protein source,fish also provides essential omega-3 fatty acids and unique bioavailable micronutrients.This study investigates the dynamics of fish consumption in India from 2005 to 2021,using comprehensive,nationally representative surveys conducted by the Government of India.It reveals significant growth in fish consumption in India,driven by population growth,increased wealth and shifting consumption patterns.The findings suggest potential for further growth and highlight regional disparities that could inform policy and intervention strategies.The following results stem from the timeframe under consideration for this study:20052006 to 20192021.Population and economy Indias population grew 20.7%,from 1.11 billion to 1.34 billion,an increase of 230 million people.Indias gross domestic product(GDP)doubled from Indias per capita gross domestic product(GDP)doubled from INR 53,478 to INR 1,08,645,while private final consumption expenditure(PFCE)tripled,reflecting increased purchasing power.Fish production Fish production in India surged 115%,reaching 14.164 million metric tons,with a compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of 5.63%.Domestic consumption of fish accounted for 82.36%of total production in 20052006,86.2%in 20152016 and 83.65%in 20192020.The rest was used for exports to foreign countries and for non-food purposes within the country.Imports of fish and fishery products within India increased 543%,from 14,000 t to 76,000 t.Total domestic fish consumption grew 120%,from 5.428 million metric tons to 11.924 million metric tons.Per capita fish consumption According to the FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheet1 for the year 2020,India holds the global ranking of 129 out of 183 nations in terms of per capita fish food supply2.Additionally,in terms of per capita protein supply through fish consumption,India is positioned at 123 worldwide.Notably,India stands out as a noteworthy global contributor to total quantity of protein through fish,securing the 3rd highest position globally.Per capita fish consumption increased 81.43%,from 4.9 kg to 8.89 kg,with a 4.05%annual growth rate.Among fish-eating populations,annual per capita consumption grew 66%.India outperformed the World Banks lower-middle income country group,with a 60%increase in per capita fish consumption compared to the groups 45%average.However,Indias consumption remained lower(8.89 kg)than the groups average(14.94 kg)in 2020.Fish-consuming population Indias fish-eating population increased 32.34%(or 6.1 percentage points),from 66%to 72.1%.Egg consumers increased 7.35 percentage points,followed by fish(6.1 percentage points),and chicken or meat(5.45 percentage points).By the end of the surveys,5.95%of the population ate fish daily,34.8%weekly and 31.35%occasionally.Occasional fish consumption decreased while weekly fish consumption increased.Fish consumption increased among both genders,with a shift toward weekly consumption.Men(78.6%)had a higher fish consumption rate than women(65.6%).Urban areas(42.7%)had a higher proportion of weekly fish consumption compared to rural areas(39.8%).However,fish consumption increased more rapidly in rural areas than in urban areas,narrowing the gap.Spatial distribution of fish consumption By the end of the surveys,Tripura had the highest proportion of fish consumers(99.35%)among various Indian states,while Haryana had the lowest(20.55%).The eastern and northeastern states,Tamil Nadu,Kerala and Goa had the highest fish-eating populations(90%),while northern states such as Punjab,Haryana and Rajasthan had the lowest(95%)and eastern states of Tamil Nadu,Kerala and Goa(90%)had the highest percentages of people eating fish.Northern states such as Punjab(26.45%),Haryana(20.55%)and Rajasthan(22.5%)had lowest.3.The proportion of the population who ate fish daily was highest in Kerala(53.5%),followed by Goa(36.20%),West Bengal(21.90%),Manipur(19.70%),Assam(13.10%)and Tripura(11.50%).Among those eating fish at least once a week,however,the proportion was highest in Assam and Tripura(69ch)followed by Odisha(66.8%),West Bengal(65.75%),Arunachal Pradesh(65.25%)and Tamil Nadu(58.2%).4.There was a remarkable increase in the proportion of people eating fish in most of the states,led by Jammu and Kashmir(20.9 percentage points),with the exception of Punjab where it decreased(3.9 percentage points).5.The gender gap between men and women was wide in states with a lower proportion of people eating fish.6.The gap was also wide between those eating fish and all non-vegetarian consumers.Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 13Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 143.2.Fish consumption patterns in India The following results cover the timeframe of NFHS-3,4 and 5(from 2005 to 2021).3.2.1.Fish vs.other non-vegetarian foodsThe NFHS-5 revealed that nearly three-quarters of the population ate fish(Figure 1).However,the most popular non-vegetarian food was eggs,followed by the fish or chicken or meat category,and then just chicken or meat.Over the three surveys,the percentage of people eating all kinds of non-vegetarian food increased for all four food categories.3.2.2.Frequency of consumptionBy the end of the three surveys,over one-third of the population was eating fish weekly,followed by those who ate it occasionally and then those daily(Figure 2).Overall,more people are eating fish in India,mostly those eating it weekly,while those eating fish daily or occasionally both decreased.This pattern was similar in other non-vegetarian food groups,though at higher magnitudes.There was a substantial increase in the weekly category for those eating from the chicken or meat,fish or chicken or meat,and eggs categories.There was a significant drop in the occasional category among those eating chicken or meat,fish or chicken or meat,or eggs(Figure 3).Figure 1.Non-vegetarian food consumption(%of population).6669.6571.7570.9568.8072.6074.2575.7572.1075.1077.0078.30FishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meatEggs200520062015201620192021Sources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).Figure 2.Frequency of non-vegetarian food consumption(%of population).66.0069.6571.7570.956.251.056.854.3523.5024.4531.3032.4536.2544.1033.5534.1068.8072.6074.2575.555.201.455.904.4531.1035.2039.9041.0532.5536.0028.4030.0572.1075.1077.0078.305.951.906.956.1534.8039.5044.3045.3031.3533.7025.7526.90FishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meatEggsFishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meatEggsFishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meatEggsFishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meatEggsYes,consumed DailyWeeklyOccassionally200520062015201620192021Sources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 153.2.3.Fish consumption by genderIn India,fish consumption was more popular among men than women(Figures 4-5).The largest percentage of men ate fish at least once a week,while about one-third ate it occasionally.The percentages were slightly lower across all categories for women.Over the three surveys,there was a much higher spike in men eating fish than among women.Overall,the pattern reveals a shift toward weekly fish consumption and a decline in occasional fish consumption in both genders,as fish has become a popular commodity in India.Still,there was not much change in both genders for those eating fish daily.In the case of the chicken or meat category and the egg category,there was a notable rise for both men and women in daily and weekly consumption(Figures 67).Figure 3.Frequency of non-vegetarian food consumption(percentage points)from 2005-2006 to 2019-2021.6.105.455.257.35(0.30)0.850.101.8011.3015.0513.0012.85(4.90)(10.40)(7.80)(7.20)FishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meatEggsFishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meatEggsFishChicken or meatFish or chicken/meatEggsFishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meatEggsYes,consumedDailyWeeklyOccassionallySources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).Figure 4.Frequency of fish consumption by gender(%of population).69.5062.50200520062015201620192021200520062015201620192021200520062015201620192021200520062015201620192021Yes,consumedDailyWeeklyOccasionallyMenWomen72.7064.9078.6065.606.206.304.805.606.805.1025.1021.9033.8028.4039.0030.6038.2034.3034.2030.9032.8029.90Sources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 16Figure 5.Frequency of fish consumption by gender(percentage points)from 2005-2006 to 2019-2021.9.10.613.93.18.7Yes,consumed Daily Weekly OccasionallyMenWomen-1.2-5.4-4.4Sources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).Figure 6.Frequency of non-vegetarian food consumption by gender(%of population).69.5062.5074.4064.9076.1067.4076.7065.2072.7064.9077.0068.2078.4070.1080.4070.7078.6065.6081.7068.5083.4070.6084.6072.006.206.301.200.906.906.805.203.504.805.601.801.105.706.104.904.006.805.102.401.408.005.907.105.2025.1021.9027.1021.8034.1028.5036.1028.8033.8028.4038.9031.5043.2036.6044.7037.4039.0030.6044.5034.5049.3039.3050.7039.9038.2034.3046.0042.2035.1032.0035.3032.9034.2030.9036.3035.7029.5027.3030.7029.4032.8029.9034.8032.6026.1025.4026.9026.90MenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenFishChicken or meat Fish or chicken or meatEggsYes,consumed 20052006Yes,consumed 20152016Yes,consumed 20192021Daily 20052006Daily 20152016Daily 20192021Weekly 20052006Weekly 20152016Weekly 20192021Occasionally 20052006Occasionally 20152016Occasionally 20192021Sources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 17Figure 7.Frequency of non-vegetarian food consumption by gender(percentage points)from 2005-2006 to 2019-2021.9.10.613.97.31.217.4-11.27.31.115.2-9.07.91.914.6-8.43.1-1.28.73.60.512.73.210.8-6.66.81.711.1-6.0Yes,consumedDailyWeeklyOccasionallyYes,consumedDailyWeeklyOccasionallyYes,consumedDailyWeeklyOccasionallyYes,consumedDailyWeeklyOccasionallyFishChicken or meat Fish or chicken or meat EggsMenWomen-5.4-4.4-9.6-0.9Sources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).3.2.4.Pattern of fish consumption by age groupOver the three surveys,there was a considerable increase in the percentage of the population eating fish and different non-vegetarian foods at least once a week(Figure 8).Across all age groups,those eating chicken or meat increased slightly more than those eating fish.Interestingly,non-vegetarian foods were more popular in the older age groups.The reason for this could be a lower acceptance of non-vegetarian food until people reach 40 years of age.In NFHS-5,weekly fish consumption was highest in people 3039 years old,followed by the 4049,2029 and 1519 age groups.Figure 8.Weekly non-vegetarian food consumption by age group(%of population).27.331.030.229.524.128.025.223.335.640.338.237.036.039.536.433.833.336.437.437.434.237.737.236.142.8 46.546.746.543.546.846.144.537.340.942.041.639.142.742.240.548.251.652.251.849.352.552.150.81519 2029 3039 40491519 2029 3039 40491519 2029 3039 40491519 2029 3039 4049FishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meatEggs200520062015201620192021Sources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 18Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 19Figure 9.Frequency of non-vegetarian food consumption in rural and urban areas(%of population).28.033.120.934.234.944.333.044.034.839.032.943.237.551.042.550.839.842.738.846.649.155.448.956.5RuralUrbanRuralUrbanRuralUrbanRuralUrbanFishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meat Eggs200520062015201620192021Sources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).3.2.5.Pattern of fish consumption in rural and urban areasAs expected,people from urban areas eat more non-vegetarian food than their rural counterparts(Figure 9),and most of them do so at least once in a week.In NFHS-5,Indias urban population consumed more of every non-vegetarian food category in the survey.In both urban and rural areas,the number of people eating fish or chicken or meat was higher than those eating only fish(Figure 10).This shows that there is scope to popularize fish in both urban and rural areas if efforts are aimed at changing the status quo by making diversified varieties of fish more available and accessible to get them onto the plates of consumers across different socioeconomic categories.Over the three surveys,the percentage of people who ate all kinds of non-vegetarian food at least once a week significantly increased in both urban and rural areas,though the rate of increase was higher in rural areas.The proportion of people eating fish at least once a week also increased in both areas.Interestingly,the proportion of people chicken or meat increased much more than for fish,which could mean that chicken and meat are more available and accessible for people in rural areas.Urban residents,in general,prefer processed,ready-to-cook or ready-to-eat foods than do rural residents.As such,the rate of increase in non-vegetarian food is lower,leaving scope for raising demand for fish in urban areas if fish processing industries proliferate in the country.The difference in the proportion of people eating non-vegetarian food between rural and urban areas narrowed over the three surveys(Figure 11).In the case of fish consumers,it almost halved.A similar trend was also observed for consumers of chicken or meat.This reveals the“demonstration effect”that the non-vegetarian consumption habits of urban people had on those living in rural areas.Additionally,this could also be a result of the increased availability,accessibility and affordability of non-vegetarian food items in rural markets.Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 20Figure 10.Change in the frequency of weekly non-vegetarian food consumption in rural and urban areas(percentage points)from 2005-2006 to 2019-2021.11.8517.8514.215.99.5512.411.1512.5FishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meatEggsRuralUrbanSources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).Figure 11.Difference in non-vegetarian food consumption in rural and urban areas(percentage points).5.1513.309.3510.954.1510.3513.558.302.857.856.307.55FishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meatEggs2005200620152016 20192021Sources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 213.2.6.Pattern of fish consumption by wealth statusIn India,the percentage of the population that eats fish at least once a week rose consistently across all wealth quintiles5(Figures 12 and 13).In the lower quintiles,the jump in the proportion of people eating fish and those eating chicken or meat was higher compared to those falling under higher wealth quintiles.However,more people chose to eat chicken or meat instead of fish at least once a week under all wealth categories.During each survey period,in general,as the wealth of people increased,the percentage of people eating non-vegetarian food at least once a week also increased.For fish,there was a linear increase in the lowest,second,middle and fourth wealth quintiles for both NFHS-3 and NFHS-4.In NFHS-5,however,the trend reversed(though this was not the case for those eating chicken or meat).One potential reason for this recent reversal in the fish-consuming population could be that wealthier people might prefer to eat different varieties of fresh fish or processed fish,such as single-bone or live fish.When these options are unavailable,they might tend to shift toward eating chicken or meat,which are freshly slaughtered and readily available.Figure 12.Weekly non-vegetarian food consumption by wealth status(%of population).25.329.133.336.533.019.323.629.134.431.829.234.340.445.339.226.732.539.343.239.333.737.638.039.332.727.334.040.042.936.438.445.849.651.342.737.445.149.450.643.345.443.041.340.534.437.141.244.044.939.051.552.253.553.345.648.551.454.454.048.4LowestSecondMiddleFourthHighestLowestSecondMiddleFourthHighestLowestSecondMiddleFourthHighestLowestSecondMiddleFourthHighestFishChicken or meatFish or chicken or meat Eggs200520062015201620192021Sources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).Figure 13.Changes in non-vegetarian food consumption by wealth status(percentage points)from 2005-2006 to 2019-2021.20.1513.958.003.951.4017.7517.6014.8510.457.2522.3017.9013.107.956.4521.8518.8515.0510.759.10LowestSecondMiddleFourthHighestLowestSecondMiddleFourthHighestLowestSecondMiddleFourthHighestLowestSecondMiddleFourthHighestFishChicken or meat Fish or chicken or meat EggsSources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).5TheNFHScalculatesthewealthindexbasedonhouseholdassetsrangingfromatelevisiontoabicycleorcar,andhousingcharacteristicssuchassourceofdrinkingwater,toiletfacilitiesandflooringmaterials.Thewealthquintilesarederivedthroughaprincipalcomponentanalysis,andeachhouseholdisassignedascore.Thescorehasbeendividedintofiveequalcategories,eachwith20%.Thequalitativerangesarehighest,fourth,middle,secondandlowest.Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 223.3.Pattern of fish consumption by stateIn NFHS-5,Tripura had the highest proportion of people eating fish among Indian states,while Haryana had the lowest(Figures 14 and 15).In general,the proportion of people eating fish was highest in Indias northeastern states,followed by its eastern states,and Tamil Nadu,Kerala and Goa.It was lowest in Punjab,Haryana and Rajasthan.6 States with more than 10 million people(West Bengal,Kerala,Odisha,Tamil Nadu,Jharkhand,Andhra Pradesh,Telangana,Bihar,Chhattisgarh and Jammu and Kashmir)also had higher percentages of people of eating fish.Kerala had the highest proportion of people eating fish on a daily basis,followed by Goa,West Bengal,Manipur,Assam and Tripura,while those eating fish weekly was highest in Assam and Tripura,followed by Odisha,West Bengal,Arunachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.Figure 14.Fish consumption by state during 20192021(%of population).20.5522.5026.4537.6538.4046.9055.4055.7062.6069.0073.6581.6084.6087.3588.3589.3091.6093.5594.1094.7595.4596.9597.3598.5098.6098.8599.0599.1099.2599.3572.10HaryanaRajasthanPunjabGujaratNCT New DelhiUttarakhandMaharashtraKarnatakaChhattisgarhBiharTelanganaSikkimJharkhandOdishaGoaMizoramKeralaMeghalayaNagalandAssamManipurTripuraIndiaHimachal PradeshMadhya PradeshUttar PradeshJammu and KashmirAndhra PradeshTamil NaduWest BengalArunachal PradeshSource:IIPS(2021).6State-wisereportsofNFHS-5arenotavailableforfiveUnionTerritories,sowewereunabletoincludethoseinthisreport.Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 23Figure 15.Fish consumption by state from 2005 to 2021(%of population).18.1019.8030.3531.5031.5045.7052.8047.2557.1064.5063.5060.7078.9582.2082.6084.0590.3585.4594.2593.3095.3095.5597.6597.4598.3584.0597.5598.5598.9066.0017.9522.2520.6535.8531.7048.4054.3563.3567.2575.9572.3079.0586.8084.6090.1589.5090.4593.7094.4095.2096.2097.8598.6098.9598.5097.7098.6099.5599.4068.8020.5522.5026.4537.6538.4046.9055.4055.7062.6069.0073.6581.6084.6087.3588.3589.3091.6093.5594.1094.7595.4596.9597.3598.5098.6098.8599.0599.1099.2599.3572.10HaryanaRajasthanPunjabHimachal PradeshGujaratMadhya PradeshUttar PradeshNCT New DelhiUttarakhandMaharashtraKarnatakaJammu and KashmirChhattisgarhBiharTelanganaSikkimAndhra PradeshJharkhandTamil NaduOdishaGoaMizoramKeralaMeghalayaWest BengalNagalandArunachal PradeshAssamManipurTripuraIndia2005200620152016 20192021Sources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 243.3.1.Variation in fish consumption by state Led by Jammu and Kashmir,there was a remarkable increase in the proportion of people eating fish in every state over the three surveys(Figure 16).The only exception was Punjab,where there was a decline in consumption.3.3.2.Frequency of fish consumption by stateFish consumption varied across the states(Figure 17).In the northern and central regions of India,where the percentage of people eating fish is lower than the national average of 72%,less than a quarter of the people ate fish at least once a week.However,in the northeastern and eastern regions of the country,as well as in the coastal states of Goa,Andhra Pradesh,Tamil Nadu and Kerala,where the percentage of fish consumers is greater than 90%,the proportion of people who ate fish at least once a week was more than 40%.It is worth noting that only a few states had a considerable proportion of their population who ate fish daily,such as Kerala,Goa,West Bengal,Manipur,Assam and Tripura.Figure 16.Change in fish consumption by state(percentage points)from 2005-2006 to 2019-2021.(3.90)0.450.500.500.700.851.151.201.551.651.802.152.452.602.703.204.505.155.505.656.156.706.907.558.458.6510.1515.0020.906.10PunjabTripuraOdishaNagalandManipurMeghalayaWest BengalMadhya PradeshAssamMizoramKeralaGoaHaryanaUttar PradeshRajasthanJharkhandMaharashtraBiharUttarakhandChhattisgarhHimachal PradeshSikkimGujaratAndhra PradeshNCT New DelhiTamil NaduKarnatakaArunachal PradeshJammu and KashmirIndiaSources:IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021).Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 25Figure 17.Frequency of fish consumption by state(%of population).7.0511.4015.0015.2019.2022.1524.1525.2033.0534.1034.1534.6534.8037.5038.3540.2542.5046.6553.3554.2554.5555.9558.2065.2565.7566.8069.0069.000.450.501.600.900.850.951.351.501.350.9053.506.355.3536.2011.5013.1014.5016.4019.0530.0525.3546.7030.8035.2532.2562.8055.0550.6535.1532.009.1531.3548.4556.7052.4554.9032.9036.8037.9529.353.3032.2029.6011.0026.0518.8017.050102030405060708090100HaryanaRajasthanPunjabHimachal PradeshGujaratUttarakhandMadhya PradeshUttar PradeshNCT New DelhiTelanganaJammu and KashmirChhattisgarhKarnatakaMaharashtraKeralaIndiaBiharMizoramJharkhandNagalandManipurAndhra PradeshMeghalayaSikkimGoaTamil NaduArunachal PradeshWest BengalOdishaTripuraAssamWeeklyDaily Occassionally7.005.850.305.400.654.452.855.951.451.950.951.4019.701.453.704.2021.901.90Source:IIPS(2021).Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 26Figure 18.Fish consumption landscape in India.Weekly fish-consuming population(%)2.230.5258.85Occassionally fish-consuming population(%)4.7541.5578.350.0533.2766.518.158.598.9Fish-consuming population(%)NFHS3(20052006)NFHS4(20152016)NFHS5(20192021)9.9254.9199.910.0947.2494.391.6134.1766.741.0338.7976.550.4945.8391.186.6235.7970.572.5532.8663.1827.2763.64100.00Daily fish-consuming population(%)Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 273.3.3.Gendered differences in fish consumption by stateAs the proportion of people eating fish increased overall in India,the countrys gender gap for fish consumption closed.In states where 90%of the population ate fish,the gap between male and female fish consumers was lower(Figures 19 and 20).This trend was particularly acute in the northeastern states and in states like West Bengal,Jharkhand,Odisha,Tamil Nadu,Kerala,Andhra Pradesh and Goa.In states where less than 90%of the population ate fish,the gender gap was higher.This pattern was specifically seen in Bihar,Telangana,Karnataka,Maharashtra and Gujarat,as well as the northern and central states.Figure 19.Gender gap in fish consumption by state(%).65.6098.9099.1098.3098.7098.8097.7098.2096.1097.3091.7093.2092.2096.0089.2084.2088.6084.8073.4079.4068.8062.5056.3047.8049.8038.1030.2033.2013.6013.0018.5078.6099.6099.6099.4099.4099.4099.3099.0097.8097.4096.5096.3094.9094.9094.0092.5090.0089.9089.8089.8078.5075.5068.9063.6061.0055.7045.1043.6039.3028.1026.50IndiaManipurTripuraNagalandArunachal PradeshAssamMeghalayaWest BengalMizoramKeralaTamil NaduOdishaJharkhandGoaAndhra PradeshTelanganaSikkimBiharJammu and KashmirChhattishgarhKarnatakaMaharashtraUttarakhandNCT New DelhiUttar PradeshMadhya PradeshHimachal PradeshGujaratPunjabHaryanaRajasthanWomenMenSource:IIPS(2021).Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 283.3.4.Gap in consumption of fish vs.other non-vegetarian foods7The gap in the percentage of people eating fish compared to other non-vegetarian food was smaller in states where the proportion of the population consuming fish was higher than 80%(Figure 21).This gap was less than 2 percentage points in the northeastern and eastern states,as well as Goa and Kerala(Figure 22).In Jammu and Kashmir,Andhra Pradesh and Telangana,however,the gap ranged from 5 to 7 percentage points.The gap was even higher among the rest of the states,in northern,central and western India,including Karnataka,where the proportion of people eating fish was lower and so the gap between the two groups of consumers was larger.Figure 20.Gender difference in fish consumption by state(percentage points).0.700.501.100.700.601.600.801.700.104.803.102.70(1.10)4.808.301.405.1016.4010.4013.009.7013.0012.6015.8011.2017.6014.9010.4025.7015.108.00(5.00)05.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.00020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00WomenMen GapManipurTripuraNagalandArunachal PradeshAssamMeghalayaWest BengalMizoramKeralaTamil NaduOdishaJharkhandGoaAndhra PradeshTelanganaSikkimBiharJammu and KashmirChhattishgarhIndiaKarnatakaMaharashtraUttarakhandNCT New DelhiUttar PradeshMadhya PradeshHimachal PradeshGujaratPunjabHaryanaRajasthanSource:IIPS(2021).Figure 21.Gap in consumption of fish and non-vegetarian foods,excluding eggs(%of population).72.1099.3599.1099.2599.0598.6095.4598.5098.8594.7597.3593.5584.6087.3589.3094.1096.9555.4046.9091.6081.6038.4088.3573.6569.0022.5020.5562.6055.7026.4537.6577.0099.5599.4599.7099.7099.2596.2099.4599.8595.8598.4594.8086.1088.9590.9596.6099.7559.8051.4096.2088.0544.9095.8581.5077.5031.3032.1074.7568.4044.6056.500102030405060708090100IndiaTripuraAssamManipurArunachal PradeshWest BengalGoaMeghalayaNagalandOdishaKeralaJharkhandChhattisgarhBiharSikkimTamil NaduMizoramUttar PradeshMadhya PradeshAndhra PradeshJammu and KashmirGujaratTelanganaKarnatakaMaharashtraRajasthanHaryanaUttarakhandNCT New DelhiPunjabHimachal PradeshFishNon-vegeterian excluding eggsSource:IIPS(2021).7Theanalysisexcluded“egg”consumption.Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 29Figure 22.Gap between non-vegetarian and fish consumers(percentage points).4.9018.8518.1512.7012.1511.558.808.507.857.506.506.454.604.504.402.802.501.651.601.501.251.101.101.000.950.750.650.650.450.350.20IndiaHimachal PradeshPunjabNCT New DelhiUttarakhandHaryanaRajasthanMaharashtraKarnatakaTelanganaGujaratJammu and KashmirAndhra PradeshMadhya PradeshUttar PradeshMizoramTamil NaduSikkimBiharChhattisgarhJharkhandKeralaOdishaNagalandMeghalayaGoaWest BengalArunachal PradeshManipurAssamTripuraSource:IIPS(2021).Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 30Table 1.Fish production and exports in India(million metric tons).2005200620152016 20192020PurposeUseInlandMarineTotal%InlandMarineTotal%InlandMarineTotal%DomesticFood3.541 1.874 5.415 82.366.665 2.612 9.277 86.209.680 2.168 11.848 83.65Non-food-0.445 4.45 6.77-0.211 0.211 1.96-0.190 0.190 1.34Sub-total3.541 2.319 5.860 89.136.665 2.823 9.488 88.169.680 2.357 12.038 84.99ExportFood0.186 0.433 0.619 9.420.497 0.625 1.122 10.430.757 1.179 1.936 13.67Non-food-0.095 0.095 1.45-0.152 0.152 1.41-0.190 0.190 1.34Sub-total0.186 0.528 0.714 10.870.497 0.777 1.274 11.840.757 1.370 2.126 15.01TOTAL 3.727 2.847 6.574 7.162 3.600 10.762 10.437 3.727 14.164 Sources:GOI(2009,2019 and 2020b).Note:The authors analyzed the raw data from these sources to derive the pre-processing weight of various processed items based on certain presumptions.Table 2.Per capita fish consumption in India.YearTotal population*(billion)Total fish production*(million metric tons)Domestic fish consumption from domestic production(million metric tons)Domestic fish consumption from imports,at pre-processing weight(t)Total fish consumed(million metric tons)Annual per capita fish consumption(kg)200520061.1076.5775.41514,0005.4284.9201520161.28310.7629.27752,0009.3287.27201920201.34114.16411.84876,00011.9248.89 Sources:RBI(2023)*;GOI(2009,2019 and 2020b)*Note:The authors analyzed the raw data from these sources to derive the pre-processing weight of various processed items based on certain presumptions.Table 3.Per capita fish consumption among people eating fish in India.YearTotal population*(billion)Fish-consuming population(%)*Fish-consuming population(million)Total fish consumed in domestic market(million metric tons)*Annual per capita fish consumption among fish-consuming population(kg)200520061.10766s0.65.4287.43201520161.28368.82.79.32810.57201920201.34172.16.911.92412.33Sources:RBI(2023)*;IIPS(2007,2017 and 2021)*;GOI(2009,2019 and 2020b)*Note:The authors analyzed the raw data from these sources to derive the pre-processing weight of various processed items based on certain presumptions.The finding of this analysis suggests that lower levels of fish consumption among non-vegetarian populations could be a result of lower availability,accessibility and preference for fish.3.4.Fish production and per capita fish consumption in India 3.4.1.Domestic fish dispositionDuring the three surveys under consideration,fish production in India experienced a remarkable surge of 115%(5.63GR),from 6.577 million metric tons to 14.164 million metric tons(Table 1).This implies that an additional 7.587 million metric tons of fish were added to the Indian fish basket over that period.Of total fish production,most of it was used for domestic consumption,and the rest for non-food purposes and exports,which saw a slight increase.Regarding imports,there was a significant increase for every survey in the quantity of imported fish and fishery products from the international market for consumption.Fish imports into India registered a CAGR of 12.84%.Over the three surveys,the volume of imported unprocessed whole round fish and fishery products rose from approximately 14,000 t,to 52,000 and finally to 76,000 t.Overall,there was a massive 120%jump in fish consumption by Indias population.This increased consumption is attributable to both domestic production and imports.Specifically,the amount of fish consumed in the domestic market increased from 5.428 million metric tons to 11.924 million metric tons,registering a CAGR of 5.78%,with an additional 6.496 million metric tons of fish consumption in NFHS-5.3.4.2.Per capita fish consumption in IndiaAnnual per capita fish consumption rose from 4.9 kg in 2005 to 8.89 kg in 2020(Figure 23).Over the three surveys,the population of India increased by 23 billion people,at a CAGR of 1.29%,from 1.11 billion to 1.34 billion(RBI 2022).Over that time,annual per capita fish consumption increased 81.43%,revealing the growing demand for fish in the country,including among those who were already eating fish(Table 2).When considering the fish-consuming population alone,per capita annual fish consumption increased from 7.43 kg in 20052006 to 12.33 kg in 20192021 with a CAGR of 3.43%(Table 3).Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 31Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 32Box 2.The Indian economy at a glance.Over the three surveys,Indias per capita GDP(at constant prices)doubled from INR 53,478 to INR 108,645,and its PFCE tripled from INR 18,584 to INR 61,594(Table 4).According to the Economic Survey 2022-23 published by the Ministry of Finance,Indias nominal GDP touched INR 273.09 trillion(USD 3.5 trillion)in the 20222023 financial year.As per the OECDs baseline projections,India will reach USD 5,10,20 and 30 trillion GDP in MER terms by the 2027,2034,2043 and 2048 financial years,respectively.In the context of fish being an income-elastic commodity,growth in the GDP means more disposable income in the hands of people,giving rise to the growing demand for high value food commodities like fish.As such,it can be inferred that the future growth potential of the fisheries sector in India is tremendous.Table 4.Indian population and economy.Financial yearTotal population(billion)At constant 20112012 prices(INR)At current prices(INR)GDP per capitaNNI*per capitaPFCEGDP per capitaNNI per capitaPFCE200520061.10753,478 48,387 18,584 32,841 29,169 15,422 201520161.28388,617 77,659 49,738 107,341 94,797 63,065 201920201.341108,645 94,566 61,594 149,701132,115 91,254 Source:RBI(2023).*NNI=Net national incomeFigure 23.Annual per capita fish consumption in India(kg).4.907.278.897.4310.5712.3320052006 2015201620192020Among total populationAmong fish-consuming populationFish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 333.5.Fish consumption in India vs.other countriesAs per data from the Food and Agriculture Organization,global per capita fish consumption from 2005 to 2020 increased 3.54 kg or 21%(FAO 2022)(Figures 24 and 25).In India,although per capita consumption increased 60%,the CAGR was 4.05%,which was significantly higher than all Asian countries,except Indonesia.Interestingly,per capita fish consumption marginally decreased 1%in Malaysia and 16%in Thailand during the same period.As these countries are predominantly non-vegetarian,including fish and fishery products,it is possible that the frequency of fish consumption and quantity of fish consumed per meal is higher than for Indias population.According to the FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheet for the year 2020,the per capita fish food supply in India stood at 8.04 kg/capita/year,earning the country a global ranking of 129 among 183 nations.In the same year,India provided a daily protein intake of 2.44 g per capita through fish consumption,securing the 123th position worldwide in terms of per capita protein supply.Remarkably,India emerged as a significant global contributor to protein through fish,supplying a substantial 1,241,327.09 tons in 2020.This impressive figure positioned India as the 3rd highest contributor globally,highlighting the countrys substantial role in meeting global protein demands through its fish production.Figure 24.Per capita fish consumption around the world(kg/year).16.71162.4390.7760.7354.6354.2453.852.3941.1234.833.7728.8827.6227.4827.4623.4121.6420.9818.6616.7215.2914.7711.18.386.024.9420.2587.384.346.6559.3654.6653.3350.5740.333.6428.4845.8539.8446.6540.3322.4544.7118.1321.7628.5726.2725.86.686.528.067.8902040608010012014016018020052020WorldMaldivesIcelandJapanPortugalSouth KoreaMalaysiaNorwaySpainFranceThailandMyanmarVietnamCambodiaChinaUnited StatesIndonesiaUnited KingdomRussiaSri LankaBangladeshEgyptNigeriaSouth AfricaBrazilIndiaNote:Data is inclusive of all fish species and major seafood commodities,including crustaceans,cephalopods and other mollusks.Data is based on per capita food supply at the consumer level but does not account for food waste at consumer level.Source:FAO.Figure 25.Change in frequency of per capita fish consumption around the world(percentage)from 2005 to 2020.21-2391-1-3-2-3-1659447047-4107-1417717275-40-223460-60-40-20020406080100120WorldMaldivesIcelandJapanPortugalSouth KoreaMalaysiaNorwaySpainFranceThailandVietnamCambodiaChinaUnited StatesIndonesiaUnited KingdomRussiaSri LankaBangladeshEgyptNigeriaSouth AfricaBrazilIndiaMyanmar46-7Source:FAO(2022).Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 34Figure 26.Per capita fish food and protein supply:Global scenario in 2020.Per capita fish food supply(kg/capita/year)0.3644.4788.58Daily protein supply through fish consumption(g/capita/day)0.112.99525.89Total quantity of protein supplied through fish food(t)64.595282260.92Source:FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheet 2020 https:/www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBSFish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 353.6.Fish consumption by income groupThe World Bank classifies nations into four income groups based on their gross national income(GNI)per capita for the fiscal year 20208:1.low income:USD 1035 or less2.lower-middle income:USD 1036 to 40453.upper-middle income:USD 4046 to 12,5354.high income:USD 12,536 or more.As of July 2020,India fell into the lower-middle income category,with a GNI per capita of USD 1890.Remarkably,average per capita fish consumption exceeded the global average of 20.25 kg for only the higher income(26.93 kg)and upper-middle income(28.47 kg)countries(Figure 27).Intriguingly,per capita fish consumption declined 8%in high-income countries,but increased in the other income categories,with a 35%rise in upper-middle income countries,a 45%surge in lower-middle income countries,and a 14%growth in low-income countries(Figure 28).India outperformed many lower-middle income countries when it came to changes in per capita fish consumption over that time,experiencing a substantial 60%increase compared Figure 27.Per capita fish consumption by income group(kg/year).16.7129.2421.0810.294.639.746.29.553.1613.1922.4220.2526.9328.4714.945.2612.249.929.554.812.6523.60 5101520253035World2005 2020HighincomecountriesUpper-middleincomecountriesLower-middleincomecountriesLowincomecountriesLeastdevelopedcountriesLowincomefood deficitcountriesNet foodimportingdevelopingcountriesLand lockeddevelopingcountriesSmallIslandDevelopingStatesEuropeanUnionSource:FAO(2022).Figure 28.Change in frequency of per capita fish consumption by income group(percentage)from 2005 to 2020.21-835451426602752-45-20-10010203040506070WorldHighincomecountriesUpper-middleincomecountriesLower-middleincomecountriesLowincomecountriesLeastdevelopedcountriesLowincomefood deficitcountriesNet foodimportingdevelopingcountriesLand lockeddevelopingcountriesSmallIslandDevelopingStatesEuropeanUnionSource:FAO(2022).8 https:/blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/new-world-bank-country-classifications-income-level-2021-2022 Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 36Table 5.Link between the projected Indian population and future fish demand in three per capita fish consumption growth rate scenarios.YearPopulation(billion)Estimates for the actual case scenario(considering the constant arithmetic growth rate in India from 2005 to 2020)Estimates for the average case scenario pegged at a yearly growth of 780 g of per capita fish consumption considering the average growth in Bangladesh,Sri Lanka,China and Egypt from 2005 to 2020Estimates for the case scenario pegged at a yearly growth of 1.2 kg of per capita fish consumption considering the average growth in Cambodia and Myanmar from 2005 to 2020Estimated annual per capita fish consumption(kg)as per the annual per capita growth rate of 1.53 kg observed over the three surveysEstimated fish consumption(million metric tons)as per the annual growth rate of 4.33 million metric tons observed over the three surveysAdditional fish required for domestic consumption from 20192021(million metric tons)Estimated annual per capita fish consumption(kg)Estimated fish consumption in the domestic market(million metric tons)Additional fish required for domestic consumption from 20192021(million metric tons)Estimated annual per capita fish consumption(kg)Estimated fish consumption in the domestic market(million metric tons)Additional fish required for domestic consumption from 20192021(million metric tons)200520061.114.95.4-4.95.4-4.95.4-201920211.348.8911.9Base year8.8911.9Base year8.8911.9Base year202920301.5*11.2816.9515.9123.91219.7329.617.7203920401.61*13.9422.410.523.7138.226.331.695139.1204720481.65*16.0726.514.629.9549.237.541.2968.156.2*Estimates from the UN Population Division Data Portal.Our own projected estimates are based on an arithmetic average growth formula(Pt=P0 KtPt=P0 Kt),where dP/dt=Constant=kdP/dt=Constant=k arrived from the rate of change from 2005 to 2020.to the average 45%increase for that income category.Nevertheless,Indias per capita fish consumption in 2020 stood at 7.89 kg(GOI 2022),nearly half that of low income countries(14.94 kg).This highlights Indias significant potential to bridge the gap and catch up with other low income countries in terms of per capita fish consumption.3.7.Future of fish consumption and fish demand in India Over the three surveys under consideration for this study,the growth rate of per capita fish consumption within India increased.Based on the average arithmetic growth rate achieved and maintaining the same rate over next 25 years,both fish consumption and per capita fish consumption in India are expected to continue to increase right up to 2048,the centenary year of the countrys independence(Table 5).This means an additional 5 million metric tons will be needed to meet the domestic fish demand by 20292030,10.5 million metric tons by 20392040 and 14.6 million metric tons by 20472048(Figure 29).This rate of growth and these production targets are,however,not satisfiable for India to excel in production and consumption.In this regard,a better consumption and production target is the most pressing need,complemented with required policy changes and support interventions.Some countries are expected to achieve a much higher growth rate during the same time period.India should benchmark those countries to enhance its growth rate so that the per capita consumption and production situations improve.In this case,we postulated two case scenarios:an 11.68%average growth rate for Bangladesh,Egypt,Sri Lanka and China,and an 18.07%average growth rate for Cambodia and Myanmar.If India is able to maintain the growth rate of the countries in the first scenario,along with its future growth of population as projected by the UN,the country will reach per capita consumption levels of 15.91 kg by 20292030,23.71 kg by 20392040 and 29.95 kg by 20472048(Figure 30).This will further make the country surmount a production of 23.9,38.2 and 49.2 million metric tons,respectively,during those three projection periods.In the second scenario,if India champions to change its policy and is able to achieve the same pace of growth as Cambodia and Myanmar,it will reach a per capita consumption level of 19.73 kg in 20292030 compared to 8.89 kg during the same period if it maintains the current growth level.Although this is a lofty target,the concerned countries have demonstrated their ability to achieve such milestones.This also indicates that India is left with enough scope for intervention in the fisheries subsector and support for its population partly in achieving nutritional security in the coming years by augmenting production and consumption(Table 5).Additionally,this kind of rapid increase in demand for fish in the domestic market will not only see a spike in aquaculture production in India but would also fuel a considerable growth in fish imports from international markets in the near future.Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 37Figure 29.Estimated fish demand in the domestic market for human consumption in different growth scenarios.16.922.426.523.938.249.229.65168.1010203040506070802005200620192021 202920302039204020472048Million metric tonsActual case scenarioModerate growth scenario High growth scenario11.95.4Note:The forecasting of domestic fish consumption growth is computed based on the average growth rate of per capita fish consumption in India from 2005-2006 to 2019-2021 and the corresponding projected population for India by the UN.Figure 30.Estimated annual per capita fish consumption(kg)in different growth scenarios.4.98.8911.2813.9416.074.98.8915.9123.7129.954.98.8919.7331.6941.290510152025303540452005200620192021202920302039204020472048Per capita fish consumption(kg)Actual case scenarioModerate growth scenarioHigh growth scenario Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 38Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 39ConclusionIndia,a megadiverse nation that spans the towering Himalayas to lush coastal plains,the vast Peninsular Plateau to the arid Thar Desert,displays a multifaceted fish consumption pattern with a varying degree of heterogeneity.This pattern,influenced by geography,climate,culture,religion and household customs,presents a complex interplay of factors shaping consumer choices,behaviors,and the availability and accessibility of fish.In this monograph,we have provided an encompassing overview of the dynamics of fish consumption in India and its spatiotemporal variations within the countrys political boundaries.The study unveils significant growth in fish consumption in India,propelled by population expansion,rising affluence and evolving dietary preferences.Despite the impressive contributions to global fisheries and aquaculture,per capita fish consumption in India tends to be lower when compared to other countries in the lower-middle income bracket.These findings underscore the potential for further growth in fish consumption and illuminate regional disparities,offering valuable insights for crafting informed policy and intervention strategies.Notably,there exists an opportunity to promote fish consumption among non-vegetarians,as fish currently lags behind other non-vegetarian food choices in popularity.The data collection associated with fisheries and aquatic foods often reveals a disconcerting degree of fragmentation and disjointedness.Notably,discrepancies emerge between the data gathered by Indian government agencies and the information presented by global organizations.This disjointedness and fragmentation introduce anomalies,hindering precise calculations and a nuanced comprehension of per capita fish consumption and daily protein intake from aquatic foods.It is crucial to address these gaps by prioritizing Indian nationally representative surveys that encompass aspects such as human foods,livelihoods,economy,and health.Considering that 72%of Indias population partakes in fish consumption,adopting a holistic approach during disaggregated data collection is imperative.Providing paramount importance to fish and other aquatic food sources within such surveys can substantially aid scientists and policymakers in refining strategies and crafting more effective policies.Recognizing the existing data gaps and fragmented information within Indias aquatic food value chain,more meticulous research is required to comprehensively understand the relationship between fish consumption and various sociodemographic and economic indicators at the household level.This research will be instrumental in developing well-informed policies and fostering a more robust understanding of this pivotal facet of Indias dietary landscape.In light of the persistent challenge of undernutrition in India,it is important to acknowledge the pivotal role that fish plays as a highly nutritious food.Consequently,public health and nutrition policies in India should,where applicable,integrate fish consumption as a strategic component to combat undernutrition.Addressing these multifaceted and interconnected issues necessitates the implementation of holistic and adaptable approaches to upgrade the value chains,ensuring the social,economic and environmental sustainability of aquatic food systems while simultaneously securing positive nutritional outcomes.Such endeavors should actively engage both public and private stakeholders,including consumers and market players.Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 40ReferencesAhern M,Thilsted SH and Oenema S.2021.The role of aquatic foods in sustainable healthy diets.Rome:UN Nutrition Secretariat.Barik NK.2017.Freshwater fish for nutrition security in India:Evidence from FAO data.Aquaculture Reports 7:16.doi:10.1016/j.aqrep.2017.04.001FAO Food and Agriculture Organization.2022.The state of world fisheries and aquaculture 2022:Towards blue transformation.Rome:FAO.doi:10.4060/cc0461enGOI Government of India.2009.Handbook on fisheries statistics 2008.New Delhi:Department of Animal Husbandry,Dairying and Fisheries,Ministry of Agriculture,Government of India.GOI Government of India.2019.Handbook on fisheries statistics 2018.New Delhi:Department of Animal Husbandry,Dairying and Fisheries,Ministry of Agriculture,Government of India.GOI Government of India.2020a.Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana:Operational guidelines.New Delhi:Department of Fisheries,Ministry of Fisheries,Animal Husbandry and Dairying,Government of India.GOI Government of India.2020b.Handbook on fisheries statistics 2020.New Delhi:Department of Fisheries,Ministry of Fisheries,Animal Husbandry and Dairying,Government of India.GOI Government of India.2022.Handbook on fisheries statistics 2022.New Delhi:Department of Fisheries,Ministry of Fisheries,Animal Husbandry and Dairying,Government of India.GOI Government of India.2023.Economic Survey 2022-23.New Delhi:Economic Division,Department of Economic Affairs,Ministry of Finance,Government of India.IIPS International Institute for Population Sciences;Macro International.2007.National Family Health Survey(NFHS-3),200506:India:Volume I.Mumbai:IIPS.IIPS International Institute for Population Sciences;ICF.2017.National Family Health Survey(NFHS-4),2015-16:India.Mumbai:IIPS.IIPS International Institute for Population Sciences;ICF.2021.National Family Health Survey(NFHS-5),2019-21:India.Mumbai:IIPS.Jyotishi A,Scholtens J,Viswanathan G,Gupta P and Bavinck M.2021.A tale of fish in two cities:Consumption patterns of low-income households in South India.Journal of Social and Economic Development 23(2):24057.doi:10.1007/s40847-020-00141-xKent G.1987.Fish and nutrition in India.Food Policy 12(2):16175.Paramasivam R and Malaiarasan U.2021.Fish consumption in India:Probability and demand.Agricultural Economics Research Review 34(1):10310.doi:10.5958/0974-0279.2021.00008.2Ravikanth L and Kavi Kumar KS.2015.Caught in the net:Fish consumption patterns of coastal regions in India.Working paper 110/2015.Chennai,India:Madras School Of Economics.Reeves P.2003.The cultural significance of fish in India:First steps in coming to terms with the contradictory positions of some key materials.ARI Working Paper Series No.5.Singapore:Asia Research Institute,National University of Singapore.RBI Reserve Bank of India.2023.Handbook of statistics on the Indian economy.Mumbai:Department of Statistics and Information Management,RBI.Fish consumption in India:Patterns and trends 41CGIAR is a global research partnership for a food-secure future.CGIAR science is dedicated to transforming food,land,and water systems in a climate crisis.Its research is carried out by 13 CGIAR Centers/Alliances in close collaboration with hundreds of partners,including national and regional research institutes,civil society organizations,academia,development organizations and the private sector.www.cgiar.org We would like to thank all funders who support this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund:www.cgiar.org/funders To learn more about this Initiative,please visit www.cgiar.org/initiative/aquatic-foods/To learn more about this and other Initiatives in the CGIAR Research Portfolio,please visit www.cgiar.org/cgiar-portfolio 2024 CGIAR System Organization.Some rights reserved.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 International Licence(CCBY-NC4.0).|
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Report|October 2023 12023年8月THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITYAN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS2 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYSCover：Wolfgang Hasselmann on Unsplash/Marta Markes on UnsplashACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWe are grateful to the experts who provided their time and expertise to the development and improvement of this report:Patty Fong,Project Director for Climate and Health&Well-being at the Global Alliance for the Future of FoodTeng Fei,Deputy Director of the Institute of Energy and Environmental Economics at Tsinghua UniversityNiu Kunyu,Associate Researcher of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesWe would also like to thank the Wilson Centers China Environment Forum(CEF)for partnering with us to do the translation of this report.See more of the Wilson Centers Food and Climate work on their Cool Agriculture website.Thanks to Wang Yanhui for support on the field work for the case studies in this report,and to consultant Yu Yang Jinqi for the preparation of some of these cases studies.Thanks to Zhang Ye for the report layout design.AUTHORS Disclaimer:Chen Meian,Project Director/Senior Analyst,Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress(iGDP),email: Hu Min,Director of iGDP,email: Yang Li,Research Director/Senior Analyst,iGDP,email: Ma Zhong,Professor,School of Environment,Renmin University of China,email: Zhu Tongxin,Assistant Analyst,iGDP,email: Copy editor:Diego Montero,Strategy Director,iGDP,email:The content of this report is based on publicly available and reliable sources of information and is intended to enhance discussion in the relevant fields.The contents and opinions contained in the report represent the authors knowledge and judgment to date,and do not reflect the positions of the authors affiliated organizations or supporting organizations.While we have tried to be accurate and complete,there may be occasional omissions.Please contact us if you have any questions.Suggested citation:Chen Meian,Hu Min,Yang Li,Ma Zhong and Zhu Tongxin.(2023).The Agri-Food System and Carbon Neutrality:An Analysis of Chinas Agriculture-and Food-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Emission Reduction Pathways.Beijing.Institute for Global Decarbonization ProgressReport|October 2023 iTHE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITYAN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYSOctober 2023Report|October 2023 iiiEXECUTIVE SUMMARY .iv1.BACKGROUND .11.1.Climate change and the agri-food system .22.CURRENT STATUS AND CHALLENGES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM.32.1.Main agri-food system emissions sources .42.2.The current emissions status of Chinas agri-food system .52.3.Challenges facing Chinas agri-food system emissions .63.SUMMARY OF CHINAS POLICIES TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM .83.1.Policy actions leading to GHG emission reductions in the agri-food system .93.2.Agri-food system emission reduction actions and synergies .114.EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS FOR CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM .134.1.Agricultural production .144.2.Mitigation opportunities:Farm-to-table .214.3.Food consumption emission reduction opportunities .235.GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION SCENARIOS FOR CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM .275.1.Three scenario settings .285.2.Key findings .291.GHG emissions from Chinas agri-food system will continue to grow in the reference scenario .292.Carbon neutrality challenges in Chinas agri-food system .303.GHG emissions reduction for the agri-food system calls for systematic change .334.Chinas existing green development actions could unlock two-thirds of its mitigation potential .345.Mitigation potential of major measures .355.3.Major mitigation actions in Chinas agri-food system .356.POLICY SUGGESTIONS .37REFERENCES .39CONTENTSiv THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS?：Zhao Yangjun on UnsplashEXECUTIVE SUMMARY Report|October 2023 vThe agri-food system which emcompasses activities ranging from agricultural production and food transport,to food consumption and food waste disposal is tightly linked to climate change.On the one hand,changes in temperature and precipitation from global warming,as well as extreme weather events,can exacerbate the volatility of agricultural production.On the other hand,many agri-food system activities are major sources of greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions:the preparation of arable land and pasture,crop cultivation and livestock farming,food processing,packaging,transportation,retail,and cooking and the disposal of kitchen waste are all associated with GHG emissions of varying magnitude.Globally,agriculture and food-related GHG emissions already account for about one-third of carbon emissions.Climate researchers have tended to split emissions from the agri-food system between its various stages,making emissions from each individual stage seem insignificant.Furthermore,emissions from each stage are often calculated within different industry categories,which means that total emissions from the agri-food system are often overlooked.But emissions from the different stages of the production and consumption sides of the agri-food system influence each other,and are subject to common drivers,including population growth,economic development,income levels and dietary habits.An effective agri-food system emissions reduction plan must view food production,transport,consumption and disposal as an organic whole.To strengthen Chinas response to global climate change and achieve the long-term goal of carbon neutrality,it is necessary to have a clear understanding of its agri-food systems emissions and reduction possibilities.This report estimates Chinas agri-food system GHG emissions by source and type,examines existing and new potential reduction efforts,and outlines key pathways and priority measures to achieve carbon neutrality in the agri-food system.Key FindingsGHG emissions from Chinas agri-food system will continue to grow in a business-as-usual scenarioGHG emissions from Chinas agri-food system would continue to grow under a scenario in which there is a continuation of existing mitigation measures,with total GHG emissions 30 percent higher in 2060 compared to the 2019 level.GHG emissions from agricultural production would continue to grow,while emissions from food processing,transportation,retail,cooking,and waste disposal would exhibit a slow downward trend after peaking,due in large part to energy efficiency improvements.GHG growth would mainly come from methane and nitrous oxide emissions.F-gases emissions would continue to grow until around 2040 and then slowly decline,while CO2 emissions would begin to gradually decrease after 2030.Deep-decarbonization would put agri-food emissions on a downward trend from 2020Under a deep decarbonization scenario,with the adoption of all feasible mitigation actions based on international and domestic mitigation practices,GHG emissions from Chinas agri-food system would be on a gradual downward trend from 2020.They would decrease to 1.408 billion tons of CO2e and 651 million tons of CO2e by 2030 and 2060,respectively,which in 2060 would be 70 percent less than under the reference(business-as-usual)scenario.However,deep-decarbonization would still fail to achieve near-zero emissions.GHG emissions reduction for the agri-food system calls for systematic change Focusing only on reducing emissions from agricultural production will not achieve carbon neutrality in Chinas agri-food system.In 2050,only 37 percent of the mitigation potential in the agri-food system will come from agricultural production.New efforts should target the large mitigation potential in other stages of the agri-food system.Chinas existing green development actions could unlock two-thirds of the mitigation potential in the agri-food systemSixty-nine and sixty percent of mitigation potential in 2030 and 2050,respectively,will come from enhancing existing green development actions,including actions in green agriculture,clean energy promotion and the circular economy that are designed to address environmental pollution and protect public health.The remaining one-third will come from strengthening low-carbon actions,including low-carbon agricultural actions and incentivizing behavioral change in food consumption patterns.vi THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYSMajor mitigation actions in Chinas agri-food systemBased on the 2050 GHG reduction potential under the deep decarbonization scenario,we identify the following ten priority actions and the main obstacles they are facing.Policy Suggestions Develop an integrated carbon neutrality strategy for the agri-food systemSince food production and consumption involve multiple sectors agriculture,transportation,industry and waste an integrated carbon neutrality strategy for the agri-food system as a whole can provide a comprehensive approach to reduce GHG emissions,help coordinate cross-sector mitigation actions and promote stakeholder participation.TABLE ES-1.Major mitigation actions in the agri-food systemNote:*Dietary shift mainly refers to reducing animal-based food consumption and encouraging local food consumption,which can reduce emissions in agricultural production and food transportation.Considering the large uncertainty surrounding behavior change,quantitative analysis is not performed here.Numerous studies have shown that reducing animal food consumption has large emissions reduction potential,a dynamic that deserves greater attention.PRIORITY ACTIONSMAJOR MEASURESMITIGATION POTENTIAL IN 2050MAIN OBSTACLESAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONNitrogen fertilizer use reductionUse of nitrification inhibitor and slow-release fertilizer,conservation tillage,knowledge-based nitrogen management10%Lack of strong economic incentivesManure managementBiogas recovery11%Lack of economic incentivesMethane mitigation in rice fieldsIrrigation management,dry direct seeding6.6%Lack of low-cost technology Implementation difficultyEmissions mitigation in enteric fermentationAnimal breeding,Feed additives3%Lack of low-cost technologyAgricultural machinery energy-saving and electrificationAgricultural machinery energy efficiency improvement and electrification5.8%Lack of policy and standards guidance for agricultural machinery electrificationFARM TO TABLEClean energy application in food processingEnergy efficiency improvements5%Lack of policy guidanceLow-carbon transportationTransportation energy efficiency improvements,freight electrification,low-GWP refrigerants7%Lack of policy guidancePlastic reduction and recyclingRecyclable packaging,biodegradable packaging materials2.8%Implementation difficultyFOOD CONSUMPTIONCooking energy saving and electrificationCooking energy saving and electrification12.8%Lack of economic incentivesKitchen waste resource utilizationWaste sorting and kitchen waste resource utilization 5%Lack of economic incentives for the scale development of waste recycling Dietary shift and behavior change*Plant-rich diets-Implementation difficultyReport|October 2023 vii Establish a GHG emissions database for the agri-food system to support scientific decision-making and behavioral changeThe database should include data on GHG emissions from the agri-food system classified by stage and by gas,as well as environmental data on associated activities.Reliable GHG emissions data can provide support for mitigation policies in the agri-food system,and environmental and carbon data labelling can facilitate behavioral change.Chinas 2021 Updated National Determined Contribution(NDC),which proposes gradually establishing a non-CO2 GHG emissions inventory system,as well as a policy framework and management system for non-CO2 GHG emissions,can also provide policy support for agri-food emissions data collection and analysis.Chinas work on product carbon labeling could also extend to the agri-food system and include carbon information in the existing labelling systems for ecological food and green food.Strengthen existing green and low-carbon actions in the agri-food system to achieve further GHG mitigation,especially methane reduction Numerous policies have been created to promote green agricultural development both in Chinas NDC and domestic policy documents,such as reduction of chemical fertilizer and pesticide use,collection and biogas recovery,promotion of organic fertilizers,and promotion of knowledge-based N management and green agricultural machinery.Optimizing existing policies and measures,especially by strengthening methane reduction in existing actions,can not only mitigate agricultural pollution,protect agricultural resources,and improve the quality of agricultural products,but also reduce GHG emissions with cost-effective measures.Promote energy efficiency and low-carbon transformation in the agri-food systemGHG emissions from energy consumption at different stages of the agri-food system,such as farm machinery,food processing,transportation and cooking,cannot be ignored.It is recommended to enact relevant policies to accelerate the electrification of agricultural machinery,including market-driven adoption of electric tractors,mini-tillers,and lawnmowers.Priority should be given to the use of renewable energy sources,particularly in the replacement of clean cookstoves in rural areas,with government subsidies and incentives to encourage the widespread adoption of high-efficiency household appliances.Transitioning to green and electric transportation in the food cold chain and freight logistics can also effectively reduce carbon emissions from conventional energy consumption.Promote innovative agricultural practices such as community-supported and regenerative agricultureDifferent types of sustainable agriculture should be explored to improve the resilience of the agri-food system in the face of resource scarcity,environmental pollution and climate change.For example,in addition to industrial agricultural production,given Chinas smallholding farmer dominated agriculture,policymakers should promote community-supported agriculture,which can provide healthy food for consumers and financial support for producers.Another example is promotion of regenerative agricultural practices such as conservation tillage and cover crops to improve soil health.In addition,development of mitigation technologies in the food sector requires more private capital to promote technology adoption at scale,while commercialized mitigation technologies and practices require government support to reduce the cost of technology adoption.Consumers,as the end users of food,have a decisive influence on the scale and structure of food production and the way food is served,making changes in consumer behavior an important part of the equation.The promotion of initiatives such as food waste reduction and dietary shift,for example,can mitigate emissions in the agri-food system.Importantly,policy design needs to consider the impact on disadvantaged groups,ensure consumer access to affortable,safe and healthy food,and make the transformation of the agri-food system more inclusive.1 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS?：Jed Owen on Unsplash1.BACKGROUNDReport|October 2023 2This section provides a general overview of the connection between climate change and agri-food systems,noting that agri-food systems are at the same time vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases(GHG).The green and low-carbon transformation of agri-food systems can lead to GHG emission reductions,while also pushing forward other sustainable development goals.1.1.Climate change and the agri-food systemThe agri-food system,ranging from agricultural production,food processing,packaging,transportation,and retail to food consumption,is closely linked to climate change(Crippa et al.,2021;Niles et al.,2017;Poore&Nemecek,2018;Rosenzweig et al.,2020;Tubiello et al.,2021;Vermeulen et al.,2012).On the one hand,agricultural activities such as crop production and livestock farming are at enormous risk from the effects of climate change.Changes in temperature and precipitation from global warming,as well as extreme weather events,exacerbate the volatility of agricultural production and can impact the overall production potential(Y.Li et al.,1997;Woetzel et al.,2020).On the other hand,many activities in the agri-food system are major sources of GHG emissions,from the preparation of arable land and pastures,crop cultivation and livestock farming,to food processing,packaging,transportation,and retail,and including cooking and the disposal of kitchen waste(Niles et al.,2017;Vermeulen et al.,2012).However,because total emissions from the agri-food system are split between its various stages,the emissions from each individual stage become insignificant when compared with those from other major emitting sectors.Furthermore,emissions from each stage are often calculated within different industry categories,which means that too often the total emissions from the agri-food system are overlooked(Clark et al.,2020;Tubiello et al.,2021).Since emissions from the different stages of the production and consumer sides of the agri-food system mutually influence each other,and are subject to common drivers,including population growth,economic development,income levels and dietary habits,splitting emission control measures between different sectors,such as agriculture,transportation and industry,is not an effective way to establish an agri-food system emissions reduction plan(Niles et al.,2017;Rosenzweig et al.,2020).Therefore,to maximize the systems contribution to climate mitigation efforts,it is necessary to view agriculture,food production and consumption as an organic whole.According to the IPCCs Sixth Assessment Report,in the 2010-2019 period global GHG emissions from the agricultural sector,including those arising from land use,accounted for between 13 percent and 21 percent of total global emissions(IPCC,2022).However,if agriculture as well as food production and consumption are taken as a whole,with indirect emissions from food production,processing and consumption included,then globally,agriculture and food-related GHG emissions already account for about one-third of global carbon emissions(Crippa et al.,2021).This makes the proper management of the agri-food system crucial to global climate security.The green and low-carbon transformation of agri-food systems can also push forward sustainable development goals like biodiversity protection,social equity and public health.Reducing the overuse of fertilizers and pesticides in agricultural production and changing production methods,such as monoculture and intensive farming,can reduce their damage to ecosystems(Benton et al.,2021).Community-supported agriculture allows consumers to connect directly with agricultural producers,improving food safety and contributing to social equity.The promotion of low-sugar,low-fat dietary guidelines is not only beneficial to public health,but also reduces GHG emissions by reducing animal-based food consumption(Tilman&Clark,2014;Zang et al.,2018).3 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS?：Hans Isaacson on Unsplash2.CURRENT STATUS AND CHALLENGES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMReport|October 2023 4This section reviews previous analyses of GHG emissions from agri-food systems,describes iGDPs assessment of GHG emissions from Chinas agri-food system,and makes note of the ongoing socio-economic changes in China that are helping to drive agri-food system emissions.2.1.Main agri-food system emissions sources There have been numerous analyses of GHG emissions from agri-food system activities(Crippa et al.,2021;H.Li et al.,2016;Niles et al.,2017;Poore&Nemecek,2018;Tubiello et al.,2021).Vermeulen et al.divide food-related GHG emissions into three stages:1)food production preparation,such as the manufacture of fertilizers,pesticides and feed;2)food production,which includes direct emissions from agricultural production,such as nitrous oxide from the use of nitrogen fertilizers,methane emissions from livestock and poultry farming,and indirect emissions during production,including GHG emissions from the conversion of forest land to arable land or grassland for food production;and 3)post-food production,which covers emissions generated during food processing,packaging,transportation,retail and consumption(Vermeulen et al.,2012).Based on data from the EDGAR-Food database,Crippa et al.divide GHG emissions from the food sector into eight stages,from food production to consumption,analyzing emission sources in each stage.The stages in order are:change in land use type,food production,processing,packaging,transportation,retail,consumption and food end-of-life processing.(Crippa et al.,2021).The Poore and Nemecek study takes a similar approach,but due to limited data availability,it excludes cooking and food waste from its analysis of GHGs caused by food production and consumption(Poore&Nemecek,2018).Tubiello et al.divide food system emissions into changes of land use,farm production,and those emitted by the energy,industry and waste sectors associated with the production and consumption of food(Tubiello et al.,2021).Li and Niles et al.analyze greenhouse gas emissions from farm production to end-user food consumption and disposal as the main GHG emissions from the food system(H.Li et al.,2016;Niles et al.,2017).Based on these analyses and data availability,the GHG emissions from the agri-food system discussed in this report largely cover the main emission sources from agricultural production,processing,packaging,transportation,and retail to consumption.Major GHGs covered include carbon dioxide,methane,nitrous oxide and fluorinated greenhouse gases(F-gases)(mainly hydrofluorocarbons HFCs used in refrigeration equipment).The Global Warming Potential(GWP)is used to calculate the various greenhouse gases in terms of their carbon dioxide equivalent(CO2e).This report broadly classifies the main GHG emissions from the agri-food system into the following seven stages(as shown in Table 1):Agricultural production:o GHGs emitted during the production,processing and transportation of agricultural inputs,such as fertilizers,pesticides and agricultural films,as well as from energy consumption by agricultural machinery,o Methane and nitrous oxide emitted during the cultivation of crops(rice,wheat,etc.),o GHGs emitted during animal-based food production,such as methane emissions from intestinal fermentation in livestock and poultry farming,and methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and poultry manure.Food processing:Mostly energy consumption from processing and GHG emissions from wastewater treatment.Food packaging:Energy consumption and GHG emissions from the production of packaging materials such as plastics,aluminium,steel and glass.Food transportation:Energy consumption during transportation and storage and F-gases emissions from refrigerants in the cold chain transportation of fresh food.Retail:Energy consumption from retail and F-gases emissions from refrigerants.5 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS Cooking:Energy consumption and emissions from cooking food in restaurants and homes.Kitchen waste disposal:Energy consumption from the transportation and disposal of food waste from restaurants and home kitchens,as well as methane and carbon dioxide emissions from waste disposal.2.2.The current emissions status of Chinas agri-food systemBased on publicly available data and research on agri-food systems(see Table 1),this report estimates that in 2019 GHG emissions from Chinas agri-food system reached 1.65 billion tonnes of CO2e,accounting for about 14 percent of the countrys total GHG emissions that year.When comparing the different stages of the agri-food system,agricultural production has the highest emissions,accounting for approximately 59 percent of GHG emissions from the entire agri-food system,followed by food consumption at 22 percent and farm to table at 19 percent.TABLE 1.Scope of research on agri-food system GHG emissionsKEY STAGES IN THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMMAIN GREENHOUSE GASESCO2CH4N2OF-gasesAgricultural productionFarm to table:food processingFarm to table:food packagingFarm to table:food transportationFarm to table:retailFood consumption:cookingFood consumption:kitchen waste disposalFIGURE 1.Percentage of GHG emissions in the agri-food system by stage in China(2019)Data source:iGDP estimateAgricultural productionFood processingFarm to Table，19%Food consumption，22%Food packagingFood transportFood retailCookingWaste disposal59.11%9.68%5.16%3.39%0.39.57%8.69%Report|October 2023 6When categorized into different types of GHG,CO2 accounts for 51 percent of emissions from Chinas agri-food system,while the remaining 49 percent of non-carbon dioxide GHGs are mostly methane(CH4),nitrous oxide(N2O)and F-gases.Among these,methane accounts for the highest proportion,the majority coming from the rice cultivation and livestock and poultry farming within the agricultural production component of the agri-food system.FIGURE 2.Chinas agri-food system GHG emissions by gas(2019)The main emission sources and gases from the agricultural production component of the agri-food system are shown in Figure 3 and Figure 4 below.This report estimates that in 2019 greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production came to around 970 million tonnes of CO2e,of which emissions from livestock and poultry intestinal fermentation accounted for the largest share at 24 percent.Next was energy consumption,mainly from the use of nitrogen fertilizer(23%)and agricultural machinery(20%).When categorized by different types of GHGs,the greatest share comes from methane,accounting for about half of all agricultural production emissions.CH4,32%N2O,17%F-gases,0.38%CO2,51ta source:iGDP estimateFIGURE 4.Agricultural GHG emissions in China by gas(2019)Data source:iGDP estimateCH4,47%N2O,27%CO2,26%Enteric fermentation,24%On-farm energy use,20%Manure management,9%Agricultural inputs,8%Rice cultivation,16%Agricultural soil,23%FIGURE 3.Agricultural GHG emissions in China by source(2019)Data source:iGDP estimate2.3.Challenges facing Chinas agri-food system emissionsChanges in population,economic development and dietary structure in China have led to changes in the scale,types and style of food consumption.These changes have also had an impact on the scale and structure of agricultural production and the food supply mode.Chinas agri-food systems GHG emissions are changing alongside these adjustments,and may see further increases going forward.7 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYSUsing comparable estimation methods,Chinas 2015 per capita agri-food system GHG emissions were close to those from major developed countries such as the United Kingdom,Japan and Germany,while Chinas per capita GDP was close to,but yet to reach,the lower limit of developed countries(Figure 5).Along with economic development,Chinese consumption levels are rising and there is growing demand for more varieties and better quality of food.For example,Chinas per capita protein intake is still at a low level compared to some developed countries(Figure 5).If higher protein intake in the future comes from animal-based food consumption,this could greatly increase greenhouse gas emissions,posing a challenge to the effort to achieve carbon neutrality within the agri-food system and for food safety(Bai et al.,2018;H.Li et al.,2016;L.Ma et al.,2019).Data source:FAO,2018Data source:EDGAR Food Database and the World BankPlant originAnimal origin70.00United States72.7China40.3Japan47.7Germany6360.0050.0040.0030.0020.0010.000200120180102030405060708040.362.8027.255.90.002.004.006.00Food-related GHG emissions per person,2015ChinaJapanFranceGDP/caplta（USD）8.0010.0012.00030,00060,00050,00040,00020,00010,000United KingdownGermanyUnited StatesAustraliaCanadaKoreaFIGURE 5.Daily protein supply in China and comparison of animal protein supply(g/person/day)between China and other countries(2018)FIGURE 6.Per capita agri-food system GHG emissions:China vs.major developed countries(2015)SingaporeReport|October 2023 83.SUMMARY OF CHINAS POLICIES TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM?：nrd on Unsplash9 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYSThis section describes policies that indirectly promote GHG emission mitigation in Chinas agri-food system,existing efforts that directly target these emissions,and identifies new emission reduction opportunities.3.1.Policy actions leading to GHG emission reductions in the agri-food systemAgricultural production and food security are long-standing policy priorities in China.Policymakers have promoted sustainability in Chinas agricultural industry and rural areas with strategies and policies for green agricultural development,soil conservation,rural revitalization and food security.They have also introduced emission reduction measures targeting food processing,transportation and consumption,including industrial energy conservation,green low-carbon transportation and waste management.Since 2004,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council have issued the annual No.1 Central Document,which prioritizes agriculture,rural areas and farmers,laying out agricultural and rural work arrangements.The 18th No.1 Central Document,issued in 2021 and titled“Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Comprehensively Promoting Rural Revitalization and Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization,identified green agricultural development as one of the key measures to further agricultural modernization.It proposed maintaining a red line of 1.8 billion acres of arable land,as well as measures such as encouraging conservation tillage,reducing the use and improving the effectiveness of fertilizers and pesticides,making use of livestock and poultry manure,and improving oversight of agricultural product quality and food safety1.Chinas large population and limited arable land have put food production at the core of its policy agenda,and food security is seen as critical to national security.The 2019 China Food Security White Paper emphasized that China should adhere to the principle of ensuring basic self-sufficiency in food and implement the strictest measures to protect its arable land2.Policies such as the National Sustainable Agricultural Development Plan(2015-2030)and the National Rural Revitalization Strategic Plan(2018-2022)encourage sustainable agricultural development from different angles.TABLE 2.Overview of main emission reduction actions in the agri-food systemEMISSION REDUCTION ACTIONSPOLICY INSTRUMENTSAgricultural production Encourage more effective and reduced use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides,and replacement with organic fertilizers;build a long-term effective mechanism to replace chemical fertilizers with organic fertilizers for the cultivation of fruit,vegetables and tea;and provide subsidies for the purchase and use of organic fertilizers.Encourage the recycling of agricultural films and the use of environmental-friendly biodegradable films.Propose farmland methane emissions control;breed high-yield,low-emission crop varieties,and improve water and fertilizer management.Improve agricultural carbon sequestration capacity through sound farmland management practices.Improve the use of livestock and poultry manure.Encourage low-protein daily feed,whole plant-silage,and high-yield,low-emission livestock and poultry breeds.Farmland carbon sink initiatives.Encourage the digitalization of and smart technology use with crop and livestock farming and fisheries.Encourage the use of green agricultural machinery,support the inclusion of agricultural green development machinery and smart equipment into agricultural machinery purchase subsidies.National Agricultural Sustainable Development Plan(2015-2030)Opinions on Accelerating the Prevention and Control of Pollution from Agricultural Films13th Five-Year Plan for the Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions14th Five-Year National Agricultural Green Development PlanImprovement and Protection Plan for Farmland QualityOpinions on Comprehensively Promoting Rural Revitalisation and Accelerating Agricultural and Rural ModernisationDevelopment Plan for Digital Agriculture and Rural Areas(2019-2025)Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Fully,Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Achieving Peak Carbon and Carbon NeutralityAction Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030Implementation Plan for Emissions Reduction and Carbon Sequestration in Agriculture and Rural Areas1.No.1 Central Document(2021).http:/ 2.“Food Security in China”White Paper.http:/ Report|October 2023 10TABLE 2.Overview of main emission reduction actions in the agri-food systemEMISSION REDUCTION ACTIONSPOLICY INSTRUMENTSFarm to Table Encourage green packaging,aiming for the discontinuation of secondary packaging for all e-commerce express shipments by 2025,with the application scale of recyclable courier packaging reaching 10 million units.Develop the green and low-carbon transportation of agricultural products.Improve the energy efficiency of the food processing industry.Cut the production and consumption of HFCs.Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Transformation and Development of Chinas Packaging Industry14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy DevelopmentOpinions on Accelerating the Development of Cold Chain Logistics to Ensure Food Safety and Promote Consumption Upgrading14th Five-Year National Agricultural Green Development PlanKigali Amendment14th Five-Year Plan for the Modern Energy SystemFood consumption Sort household waste and use kitchen waste as a resource.Reduce food waste,and draw up and revise relevant national,industry and local standards to minimize and prevent waste to the maximum extent possible.Adjust peoples diets by encouraging healthy eating habits with a diverse range of foods.Action Plan for Household Waste Separation SystemLaw of the Peoples Republic of China on Prevention and Control of Environmental Pollution by Solid WasteLaw of the Peoples Republic of China on Countering Food WasteChina Food and Nutrition Development Outline(20142020)Dietary Guidelines for Chinese ResidentsBOX 1.Implementation plan for emissions reduction and carbon sequestration in agriculture and rural areasEmissions reduction and carbon sequestration in agriculture and rural areas are important measures and hold great potential for helping China achieve its dual-carbon goal.The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Implementation Plan for Emissions Reduction and Carbon Sequestration in Agriculture and Rural Areas in June 2022 as an important part of Chinas 1 N policy system.This was Chinas first comprehensive strategy to address climate change in the agricultural sector.The Plan proposes six tasks and ten actions to implement the dual-carbon strategy within the agricultural sector.The six tasks are:energy saving and emissions reduction in crop farming;emissions and carbon reduction in livestock farming;emissions reduction and increasing the carbon sink potential in fisheries;expansion of the carbon sequestration of farmland;energy saving and emissions reduction for agricultural machinery;and substitution with renewable energy.The ten actions are:reducing methane emissions from paddy fields;reducing use and increasing efficiency of fertilizers;reducing emissions from livestock and poultry farming;reducing emissions in,and increasing the carbon sink potential of,the fisheries sector;using green and energy-saving agricultural equipment;improving the carbon sequestration capacity of farmland;reusing and recycling straw;substituting with renewable energy;support from technological innovation;and building monitoring mechanisms.The goal is to accelerate the development of resource-saving and environmentally-friendly agricultural and rural industrial structures,production methods,lifestyles and spatial patterns,and to support the national carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.China has also issued policies and measures in industrial sectors related to food production and consumption,such as agriculture,transportation and waste management.Although the primary goals of these actions have not been to reduce GHG emissions,they are making a positive contribution to carbon reduction in the agri-food system.The table below summarizes these policies,organized by the main emission sources for different components of the agri-food system.11 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS3.2.Agri-food system emission reduction actions and synergiesAs previously mentioned,not all actions that help in reducing greenhouse gas emissions within the agri-food system have the primary goal of combating climate change much emission reduction comes from their synergistic effects.For ease of analysis,this report divides the mitigation actions in Table 1 into two broad categories based on their overarching policy objectives:green development actions and low-carbon agriculture actions.Green development actions:these encompass measures and actions where primary policy objectives prioritize other socio-economic and sustainable development goals,in particular agricultural security,environmental protection,energy conservation,low-carbon transformation and public health,while also including the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.While the initial policy objective was not to tackle climate change,these actions have been intensified under efforts to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Green development actions mainly cover such actions as environment-friendly agriculture,green and low-carbon energy systems,and the circular economy.Specific actions include:o Environment-friendly agriculture:this mainly includes actions with the primary objectives of reducing air,water and soil pollution arising from agricultural production and ensuring food security.o Green low-carbon energy systems:this mostly includes actions taken by China to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy system that are synergistic with efforts to improve energy efficiency and the decarbonization of the agri-food system.o Circular economy:the main focus is on actions with the primary objective of conserving resources,recycling and reusing,which also help to reduce emissions within the agri-food system.BOX 2.Anti-Food Waste LawThe Anti-Food Waste Law of the Peoples Republic of China was formally implemented on 29 April 2021,with the aim to prevent food waste,ensure national food security and promote sustainable socio-economic development.The 32 Articles of this law outline definitions,principles and requirements for countering food waste,the responsibilities of government and other entities such as food production/operations and food and beverage service operations,incentives and restrictive measures,and legal liabilities.The key points are:Food producers and operators:improve the conditions of food storage,transportation and processing,reduce storage and transportation losses;apply stricter daily inspections,categorized management and special handling of near end-of-shelf life food products.Food and beverage service operators:establish sound food procurement,storage and processing management systems;proactively issue food waste prevention tips;do not mislead consumers into ordering excessive amounts of food;provide small portions,etc.Industry associations and the public:promote and popularize ways to prevent food waste,including the“Clean Plate Campaign;individuals should adopt socially responsible,healthy,sensible and green consumption habits.Few countries have used legislation to reduce food waste.This law highlights Chinas determination to reduce food waste and ensure food safety.It supports healthy traditional lifestyles during a period of social transformation in China and aims to curb waste.Report|October 2023 12 Advanced low-carbon actions:this refers to measures and actions to reduce GHG emissions in the agri-food system whose primary objective is to combat climate change and which take into account carbon neutrality requirements that is,controlling GHG emissions.For example,China has proposed actions and measures related to emissions reduction in the agri-food system in its response to climate change,which were published in Chinas Achievements,New goals and New Measures for Nationally Determined Contributions and Implementation Plan for Emissions Reduction and Carbon Sequestration in Agriculture and Rural Areas.The table below summarizes the above policies with respect to actions that reduce greenhouse gases and lists their primary policy objectives.TABLE 3.Overview of actions that have reduced GHG emissions in the agri-food system,categorized by objectiveEMISSIONS REDUCTION ACTION CLASSIFICATIONKEY MEASURESPRIMARY OBJECTIVESTAGE IN AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONFARM TO TABLEFOOD CONSUMPTIONADVANCED LOW-CARBON ACTIONSLow-carbon agricultural productionEmissions reduction in rice cultivationGreenhouse gas emissions reductionLow-carbon,emissions reduction in livestock and poultry farmingGreenhouse gas emissions reductionFarmland carbon sinksCarbon sequestrationGreen refrigerationRefrigerant emissions reduction in the food cold chainGreenhouse gas emissions reductionGREEN DEVELOPMENT ACTIONSEnvironment-friendly agricultureResource utilization of livestock and poultry manureWater pollution reductionImproved efficiency and reduction in chemical fertilizer and pesticide use,replacement with organic fertilizer Soil conservation,food securityRecycling of agricultural filmsSolid waste pollution reductionClean and modern energy systemsReducing energy consumption and emissions in agriculture and rural areasAir pollution reductionReducing energy consumption and emissions from food processingIndustrial energy saving,air pollution reduction,greenhouse gas emissions reductionReducing energy consumption in food transportation and retailTransportation energy saving,air pollution reduction,greenhouse gas emissions reductionReducing energy consumption in cookingAir pollution reductionCircular economyRecycling and reusing of food packagingSolid waste pollution reductionKitchen waste management,cutting food wasteSolid waste pollution and air pollution reduction13 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS?：PhotographyCourse on Unsplash4.EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS FOR CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM Report|October 2023 14BOX 3.Climate-friendly rice cultivation in ChinaAs one of Chinas main food crops,rice is widely grown in different regions of the country.During rice cultivation,methane is produced from the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in flooded soil,which is a major source of GHG emissions in Chinas agricultural sector.In a village in the Jianyang region of Sichuan Province,farmers are growing rice using covering,no-tillage and furrow flooding.Before planting the rice,farmers employ no-tillage to minimize disturbing the soil.During planting,they employ furrow flooding to reduce the time the paddy field is flooded,while using rapeseed cake as a substitute for chemical fertilizer and a layer of local rapeseed hulls to help increase the temperature and maintain moisture levels.In addition to reducing methane emissions from rice farming by changing sowing and irrigation methods,scientific and technological improvements are also being explored.The smart farming system built by the China National Rice Research Institute(CNRRI)and Alibaba Cloud is based on CNRRIs rice growth model.Digital technologies,such as cloud computing and the Internet of Things,allow farmers to connect to water level sensors to precisely manage irrigation and drainage.Studies have found that this type of smart farmland management reduces water use by 30 to 50 percent and methane emissions by 30 percent compared with traditional models3.This section identifies mitigation opportunities that can be further promoted based on existing domestic policies,and both domestic and international mitigation practices and technologies.4.1.Agricultural productionMethane emissions reduction from rice farming Water management in paddy fields:Since the moisture status of paddy fields affects greenhouse gas emissions,the overall greenhouse gas emissions of paddy fields can be lowered by improving water management(Zhang et al.,2012).Methane emissions can be significantly reduced by draining water one or more times during the rice growing season,compared to conventional irrigation which requires maintaining a certain depth of water.Changing from flooding irrigation to wetting or intermittent irrigation can reduce methane emissions by 47%and 39%,respectively(Mi et al.,2016).In addition,the use of alternate wetting and drying irrigation with slow-release fertilizers,nitrification inhibitors,and other measures can cut methane emissions by 28%to 49%(Zhou et al.,2020).Adjust tillage practices to reduce tillage intensity:Compared to minimum tillage or no tillage,tilling leads to greater decomposition of organic matter and facilitates methane production and emission(E.Ma et al.,2011).Replacing deep tillage with shallow rotary tillage can lower methane emissions by 32%.Adjust rice farming practices and promote dry direct rice seeding:Since the direct seeding of rice means less time that the paddy field needs to be in contact with water,it avoids methane emissions from the decomposition of organic matter in flooded soil conditions by methanogenic bacteria.Since this also means a reduced need for water resources and manpower,it is also a cost-effective emissions reduction measure(Ahmed et al.,2020).Studies that have looked into encouraging the move to dry rice from flooded rice cultivation in China have shown that in addition to saving water,it can also reduce GHG emissions(W.Wang&Nie,2018).However,compared with traditional rice cultivation,dry direct seeding of rice faces problems including susceptibility to lodging,poor growth and overgrown weeds.Therefore,when recommending it,it is also important to promote the use of suitable dry rice varieties and provide guidelines on how to nourish the plants and manage weeds as well as appropriate sowing instructions(H.Liu et al.,2014;W.Wang&Nie,2018).Select suitable rice varieties:Selecting rice varieties with a low infiltration rate and efficient nitrogen utilization can reduce emissions.Selecting suitable rice varieties can reduce methane emissions by 20 to 50 percent(Zou et al.,2011).1.“Rice Can Also Reduce Carbon Emissions!A Low-Carbon Experiment in the Fields:How to Build a Closed Loop of Technology,Cost,and Carbon Trading?”Daily Economic News.15 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYSReduce chemical fertilizer use and promote organic fertilizers Soil-testing formula fertilization:The appropriate application of fertilizers based on soil nutrient requirements avoids the overuse or underuse of fertilizers,thereby reducing nitrous oxide emissions from nitrogen fertilizer application.China started its soil-testing formula fertilization program in 2005 and has promoted it as a key technology to reduce chemical fertilizer use while increasing its efficiency.Various studies have also demonstrated its significant potential in reducing nitrous oxide emissions from farmland(Luo et al.,2019;Nayak et al.,2015).Use of slow-release fertilizers and nitrification inhibitors:The nitrogen in nitrogen fertilizers is used by microorganisms in the soil in the processes of nitrification and denitrification,generating nitrous oxide emissions.By using slow-release fertilizers,nitrogenous gases are released more gradually,reducing nitrous oxide emissions by 20 to 40 percent,while the use of nitrification inhibitors cuts nitrous oxide emissions by 11 to 60 percent(Zou et al.,2011).In addition,technical training,and management programs for farmers on fertilizer application can also enhance emissions mitigation.In a training program to improve agricultural management and technology involving more than 20 million farmers in China from 2005-2015,the development of locally tailored farmland improvement programs not only reduced fertilizer use and increased yields,but also mitigated GHG emissions,for example by about 14 percent and 21 percent for rice and wheat,respectively(Z.Cui et al.,2018).Promote use of organic fertilizers:Organic fertilizer application can regulate microbial activity in the soil and reduce nitrous oxide emissions from farmland by 14 to 30 percent(Zou et al.,2011).Existing measures for using livestock and poultry manure also offer room to encourage the development of organic fertilizers.BOX 4.Technology-assisted soil testingExcessive fertilizer use leads to a range of environmental problems,including water pollution and the release of N2O emissions from farmland soils;it also leads to a decline in soil organic matter,soil acidification and soil hardening,thereby reducing soil fertility.Responding to the overuse of chemical fertilizer,China launched it soil-testing formula fertilization initiative in 2005,which involves the appropriate use of fertilizers based on soil nutrient requirements to avoid the overuse of fertilizers and low fertilizer utilization rates.With the support of the Ministry of Agriculture,in 2014 Sinofert launched smart fertilizer service stations nationwide to carry out accurate soil testing and fertilizer distribution,through smart fertilizer dispensers4.Both large and small-scale growers can use the application software connected to internet-enabled smart fertilizer terminals.After entering planting data and providing soil samples,the fertilizer dispenser can perform a quick soil assessment and send the results to the cloud.Based on the results of the soil assessment,the cloud server calculates a plan for planting,the required fertilizer formula and price,ultimately generating an order which is sent to the farmers phone5.The order goes directly from the factory to the farmer,saving costs by avoiding any distribution mark-up.Calculations show that smart fertilizer distribution systems can directly reduce fertilizer usage and cost by 10 to 30 percent,while increasing crop yields by more than 5 percent and helping farmers boost incomes by more than 10 percent.64.“Joint Efforts to Reduce Waste and Create an Efficient New Chapter”,Farmers Daily(2016).http:/ Farming:Smart Fertilization via Mobile Control”,China Business Network(2016).https:/ Testing and Fertilization:One-Click Ordering for Precision Fertilization via Mobile Control”.Farmers Daily.http:/ 2023 16Enhance carbon sequestration of farmlandIncrease soil organic carbon(SOC)content:On-farm SOC is the foundation of agricultural soil fertility,and it is also a carbon pool that can be adjusted over a relatively short time period(Zhao et al.,2018;Zou et al.,2011).A number of farmland management measures,including conservation tillage,straw return and nitrogen fertilizer management,can reduce disturbance of the soils physical properties,minimize SOC loss and improve organic carbon stability,thus increasing carbon stock in farmland(Shi et al.,2012).Experimental studies on Chinese farmland show that 1)conventional tillage straw returning to field,2)no-tillage and 3)no-tillage straw returning to field could increase SOC content of farmland with annual carbon sequestration rates of 0.22 g/kg,0.35 g/kg and 0.52 g/kg,respectively(Zhao et al.,2018).With further promotion of reasonable farm management practices including straw returning to field,organic fertilizer and no-tillage,the organic carbon stock of Chinese farmland can increase from 0.48 to 0.63 percent per year(Tao et al.,2019).If these farmland management measures are promoted under reasonable economic and technological conditions,the carbon sequestration potential may reach 30-50 million tonnes per year,or 0.25-0.4 t/hm2 per year (Cheng&Pan,2016).BOX 5.Conservation tillage promotionThe black soil region in Northeast China produces one quarter of the countrys total food,making it critical to national food security.However,unsound farming practices have drastically reduced the organic matter and productivity of the black soil.The 2005 No.1 Central Document elevated conservation tillage development to a national policy.In 2007,the Chinese Academy of Sciences set up the“Conservation Tillage Research and Development Base of the Chinese Academy of Sciences”in conjunction with the Agricultural Technology Promotion Station and the Soil Fertilizer Work Station in Lishu county,Jilin Province.Over the course of fifteen years of research and observation,researchers explored a set of technical models and support equipment,called the Lishu Model.Conservation tillage can be effective in preventing soil degradation.The Lishu pilot project found that soil organic matter increased from 22.5g/kg to 24g/kg between 2007 and 2018.Straw mulching also increases the accumulation and activity of nutrients such as nitrogen,phosphorus and potassium in the cultivated layer,and increases the capacity to supply soil nutrients.Improvements were found in soil structure and soil biodiversity and increased the soils ability to retain water and resist drought7.In 2020,the area of black soil under conservation tillage in Northeast China reached 2.69 million hectares(40 million mu).As well as reducing emissions and bringing environmental benefits,conservation tillage can also increase yields and incomes.In 2017,the Lishu pilot site produced an increase in yields of about 1,000kg/ha,increasing revenues by about 1,400 yuan.Conservation tillage also increased the nitrogen fertilizer utilization rate by 4.7 percent.Reductions in chemical fertilizer use,frequency of farm machinery use,fuel consumption and labor costs resulted in an average saving of 1,650 yuan per hectare8.7.“Ao Man,Zhang Xudong,Guan Yixin(2021).Research and Practice of Protective Tillage Technology in Northeast Black Soil,Journal of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,36(10):1203-1215.8.Ibid.17 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYSResource utilization of livestock and poultry manure:fertilizer production and biogas recovery Optimize management of livestock and poultry manure:Sound management can effectively reduce greenhouse gases emitted during the storage of livestock and poultry manure.For example,adding 10 percent biochar or bentonite clay to pig manure in storage can reduce nitrous oxide emissions by 19.8 and 37.6 percent,respectively(Lei et al.,2019).Use livestock and poultry manure as fertilizer:One of the main practices in managing Chinas livestock and poultry manure is simple composting and direct application to farmland.Studies have shown that turning and forced aeration during aerobic composting can reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions.In addition,by adding biochar to pig manure compost,methane and nitrous oxide emissions were reduced by 19 and 37.5 percent,respectively(Zhu et al.,2020).Using livestock and poultry manure as an energy source:Biogas produced from the anaerobic fermentation of livestock and poultry manure can be recovered by building a biogas plant.By connecting this biogas up to the energy grid or converting it into biofuel for energy generation,methane emissions can be reduced.Various studies have shown that if biogas is collected from the anaerobic fermentation of livestock and poultry manure,GHG emissions can be significantly reduced(Yu et al.,2015;Zhu et al.,2020).For example,a biogas project in one pig farm in Southern China with an annual output of 10,000 animals can reduce approximately 781 tonnes CO2e(Yu et al.,2015).BOX 6.Resource utilization of livestock and poultry manureChina has been actively promoting policies and regulations that encourage resource utilization of livestock and poultry manure.With the development of large-scale and intensive livestock and poultry farming,there is now the need for a model of centralized collection and resource utilization of manure and other agricultural waste by third-party companies.The Zhenghe Environmental Protection Group,a manure management company in Jiangxi Province,has set up the“N2N”green environmental circular agriculture model.By collecting and treating manure from“N”upstream livestock farms,it can then provide biogas for power generation and supply“N”downstream crop farms with organic fertilizers,thus helping to build a green circular industry chain,while solving the environmental problem associated with manure contamination.The companys facility is located in the Ecological Agricultural Science and Technology Park in Liuhu town,Nanchang city,the facility collects and transports manure from 229 large-scale livestock farms and toilets in the nearby area.Annually,it handles 300,000 tonnes of manure,generating 5 million cubic metres of biogas and generating 10 million kWh of electricity.It produces 20,000 tonnes of various solid organic fertilizers,260,000 tons of biogas slurry and 1,000 tonnes of soil conditioners.In one year,the amount of biogas it generates can save 7,400 tonnes of standard coal and 18,000 tonnes of carbon emissions9.9.Expert InterviewReport|October 2023 18Feed management:adjust feed structure and feed additives Adjust feed structure:The use of good feed varieties can improve livestock digestion while reducing methane emissions(Sun et al.,2018;Yu et al.,2015;Zhang et al.,2012;Zou et al.,2011).For example,processing coarse feed materials through methods such as silaging,microstorage or ammoniation can reduce methane production(Na et al.,2011;Sun et al.,2018).Silage treatment of coarse feedstuffs can reduce methane emissions by 6-8%(Na et al.,2011).Appropriate addition of protein feeds can reduce the rate of rumen nutrient degradation,improve intestinal absorption of nutrients and inhibit rumen fermentation,thereby reducing methane emissions(Sun et al.,2018).Changing the concentrate-to-forage ratio of an animals diet can affect methane emissions.A diet with a 60:40 concentrate-to-forage ratio produced 21 percent less methane than a diet with a 40:60 concentrate-to-forage ratio when the fodder all comes from maize stover silage(Na et al.,2011).Add feed additives:Adding allicin or tea saponin to feed can inhibit microbial fermentation in the rumen,reducing methane emissions by over 70 and 16 percent,respectively(Zou et al.,2011).The use of methane inhibitors can reduce methane production by about 25 percent(Zhang et al.,2012).Recent studies and experiments have shown that adding small amounts of red seaweed to beef cattle feed not only improves feed conversion,but also reduces methane emissions from enteric fermentation by 69.8 to 80 percent without compromising beef quality(Roque et al.,2021).Mitigation is therefore promising if applications are made going forward.BOX 7.Change dairy cattle diets to reduce methane emissionsPlanting a salt-tolerant crop,such as sweet sorghum,in saline soil and mixing it with corn to make silage for livestock farming,can improve land use and alleviate pasture shortages while boosting the feed absorption rate and reducing methane emissions.This method is being applied on 5,000 mu of saline soil in northern Jiangsu Province.Dairy cattle feed is mostly made up of silage maize,but due to poor yields of maize from the local saline soil,in the past livestock farmers used to face grass shortages.Now,farmers intercrop sweet sorghum and silage maize,which are suitable for the varied levels of salinity found on local coastal land.After mixed harvesting,the crops are combined and ensiled,then sent to breeding farms.After the required nutritional supplements are added,this becomes the daily feed for dairy cattle.Silage handled this way is high in digestible nutrients and can improve milk quality10.Data show that using this intercropping sweet sorghum and silage maize model can give farmers an income of about 3,000 yuan per mu,an increase of 24 percent profit per mu,11 percent higher milk production and all with lower methane emissions11.10.Zhang Ye(2022).Sweet Sorghum Paired with Green Corn:How to Build a Closed Loop of Technology,Cost,and Carbon Trading on Salt-Alkali Land?Science and Technology Daily,http:/ THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYSBOX 8.Use of precision farming for chemical fertilizers and pesticides use reductionWith the rise of smart agriculture,information technologies such as big data and remote sensing drones have been adopted by farmers to help with precision planting and management of farmland and crops.For example,sensors can be used to collect soil and crop information as well as environmental data such as weather and temperature.These data are processed via big data analysis,yielding recommendations on tasks such as planting,irrigation and fertilization to improve yields and save energy.One example of smart fertilization is a high-standard unmanned planting demonstration farm in Bufeng town,Yancheng,Jiangsu Province12.The 5,000-mu farm uses XAGs smart agricultural equipment,and is run by a three-person management team.Prior to planting,a remote sensing drone is used to map the farmland on a horizontal plane to obtain high-resolution maps.Based on these maps,farmland profiles are created in the system to carry out precision management of land plots.Remote sensing drones can be used in conjunction with AI models to analyze rice plant growth,identify seedlings,and monitor pests and diseases during the growth period13.In addition,drones can replace manual labor for precision fertilizer and pesticide application in the paddy fields.In Bufeng,smart agriculture has led to a 10 percent reduction in pesticide and fertilizer use per unit area on the farm compared to traditional farming models,while yields have risen by about 10 percent14.Agriculture digitalization:encourage precision in agricultural production and management Promote precision agricultural technology:The use of information and smart technologies to determine accurate data on factors that impact crop growth,such as weather and demand for crops as well as the sound use of resources,can improve agricultural production efficiency and reduce greenhouse gases(Balafoutis et al.,2017).One example is the use of variable rate fertilizer application,which can reduce emissions by 5 percent through precision fertilization(Balafoutis et al.,2017).An additional 10 percent reduction in GHG emissions can be achieved through the use of an automatic steering system with no-tillage or minimum tillage practices(Cillis et al.,2018).Precision farming is widely used in countries that have large-scale farms,such as the United States and Canada,but it is also popular in areas with scattered farm plots such as Japan.In China,precision farming pilots have mostly taken place in regions that have large-scale farms,such as Xinjiang,Heilongjiang and Jilin(Fang&Li,2018).In the future,with technological improvements and research and development,it can be introduced to more regions.12.Sen Ning(2023).The Three Post-90s Generation Farmers Manage 5,000 Acres of Farmland in Jiangsu:Cultivating,Managing,and Harvesting Using Smart Agriculture Systems,The Paper.https:/ 13.Ibid.14.XAG(2022),Extreme Vision Technology Corporate Social Responsibility Report 2022.Report|October 2023 20Energy saving and emission reduction in agricultural machinery Improve energy efficiency of agricultural machinery:The energy consumption of agricultural machinery,such as that used in crop planting or livestock production,is a major source of carbon emissions from farming.Approximately 30 to 40 percent of Chinas total diesel consumption comes from the agricultural sector.Studies have shown that a 10 percent increase in the efficiency of agricultural machinery can reduce 9 to 10 million tonnes of carbon emissions annually(Zou et al.,2011).Emissions reduction in agricultural machinery relies on existing purchase subsidy policies to enhance machinery efficiency by measures including phasing out energy-intensive equipment and optimizing agricultural machinery(Dou,2018;X.Liu et al.,2012).Electrification of agricultural machinery:Promoting the development of new-energy agricultural machinery can reduce emissions from the fossil fuel combustion.Despite the late domestic start,there is significant room for the application and promotion of electric agricultural machinery,including electric tractors,micro tillers,and lawn mowers in China,where there is limited land and a large population.In the future,as costs come down and pollution from batteries can be better controlled,the electrification of small and medium-sized agricultural machinery shows great potential for replacing traditional machinery(J.Wang et al.,2019).BOX 9.Electrification of agricultural machinery in ChinaWith the increasing mechanization of agriculture,the use of diesel fuel in farming machinery is on the rise.The shift towards electrification of agricultural machinery offers the potential to reduce diesel consumption and,in turn,lower carbon emissions and environmental pollution.As China advances its goals of green and low-carbon development and modernizing agriculture and rural areas,the exploration of electrifying farm machinery is accelerating.In recent years,numerous domestic enterprises have initiated research and development efforts for electric tractors.In 2020,the National Agricultural Machinery Equipment Innovation Center introduced the countrys first hydrogen fuel cell electric autonomous tractor15.Huanghe Jinma Tractor Factory,a subsidiary of Jiangsu Yueda Group,introduced two electric tractors in 2021:the YL254ET,suitable for light-duty operations in greenhouses and orchards,and the YU1004,designed specifically for paddy field plowing,sowing,and field management.Both of these electric tractors have entered small-scale production and are being used in practical applications16.Another company involved in the development of electric tractors is the Gansu-based Zhulong Machinery Manufacturing Co.,Ltd.This company has developed a range of electric agricultural implements for the hilly and mountainous terrain in Gansu,including electric wheat seeders,electric cultivators,and electric fertilizer spreaders.They have established testing and demonstration sites in areas such as Dingxi and Linxia to carry out trials and demonstrations17.The electric soybean-corn integrated seeder,produced by the company in 2022,has received positive feedback in the market18.14.Tian Yilong&Chen Hui.(2020).5G Hydrogen Fuel Electric Tractor Unveiled in Henan Province.Henan Daily.http:/ Qi.(2022).Hybrid tractor from National Agricultural Equipment Innovation Center rolls off the production line,Chinas tractors enter the electric era ahead of schedule.35 Dou.https:/ Zhengrui&Zhao Lan.(2022).Analysis of the technical advantages of electric agricultural machinery and suggestions for future work.Agricultural Mechanization Information Network of China.http:/ THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS4.2.Mitigation opportunities:Farm-to-tableGreen packaging:reduce food packaging and improve recyclingReducing emissions from food packaging requires the simplification of packaging,using environment-friendly materials and improving the recycling of packaging(X.Yang&Cao,2012).Chinas existing policies,including the New Plastic Ban and green packaging,have identified green packaging as the development direction for the packaging industry.Simplify packaging and use biodegradable bio-based materials:A study of GHG emissions from food packaging materials showed that cartons emit significantly less than plastic and glass on a per-serving basis,and single-serve food packaging emits significantly more than multi-serve packaging(Fresn et al.,2019).Cartons cannot completely substitute for other food packaging,and their wide-use also leads to more carton production and associated energy and water consumption and GHG emissions.Using pulping made from agricultural waste such as rice straw and wheat straw as packaging material can reduce CO2 emissions by about 50 percent while preserving forests(X.Yang&Cao,2012).Recycle and reuse packaging materials:For beverage packaging materials,mainly glass and aluminum cans,GHG emissions come primarily from the production stage,but through recycling management and reuse,the emissions of the material production can be reduced by 70 to 80 percent(Simon et al.,2016).With the prevalence of take-out food in China,an analysis of the environmental impact of take-out food packaging shows that while replacing plastic food containers with paper ones can reduce carbon emissions by 49 percent,it also generates a large amount of carton waste.The adoption of a shared container model,where reusable and recyclable containers are employed to replace traditional ones and all tableware is returned by consumers to a specified collection point for cleaning,would result in a 97 percent reduction in carbon emissions and a 67 to 93 percent reduction in other environmental pollutants(Y.Zhou et al.,2020).BOX 10.Plastics food packaging reduction actionThe production and consumption of plastics,as well as its end disposal,exacerbate plastic pollution and emit significant amounts of GHGs.Some companies have started to take action to reduce and reuse plastic packaging.A firm called Shuangti has come up with a way to reuse food containers in colleges and universities to tackle disposable plastic waste generated by takeout food.They have set up on-and off-campus takeout platforms to collect and clean reusable food containers.As of December 2021,Shuangti reusable food containers had been used an average of 63 times.Studies found that when compared with a disposable container,the environmental load from the production and use(i.e.,reusing,washing and sterilization)of an individual reusable container is higher.However,if the number of recycling times can reach 6-8 times,it can be comparable to the performance of disposable plastic lunch boxes with the same function or specification in terms of the overall environmental impact due to the reduction of waste generation.In the scenario of 63 uses,each use of a reusable container can save 91g CO2e19.Shuangti estimates that each reusable food container can be used for one and a half to two years,and can be reused at least 150 times20.19.“Breaking Free from Plastic Restraints:Research Report on Circular Economy and Environmental Benefits of Takeout Food Containers.”http:/ Challenges of Reducing Plastic Use in Takeout:Discoveries in 35 Million Takeout Orders”,Southern Weekend(2022).https:/ 2023 22Green cold chain:promote low GWP refrigerants and light freight electrificationAlthough the expansion of cold chain logistics can extend the shelf life of perishable food and therefore reduce food waste caused by food spoilage,the use of high GWP HFCs refrigerants(e.g.HFC-134a,HFC-404A,HFC-407C,HFC-507A,etc.)brings about significant F-gases emissions.A study focused on replicating the cold chain development models of North America and Europe in sub-Saharan Africa shows that when additional cold chains still use high GWP refrigerants,emissions from refrigerant leakage remain even higher than those from the food waste avoided by cold chain use(Heard&Miller,2018).Therefore,it is still necessary to promote low GWP refrigerants in cold chain logistics.Furthermore,control of HFC production and consumption under the Kigali Amendment,which has been ratified by China,will also advance the promotion and application of environmental-friendly low GWP refrigerants.HFC refrigerants currently still predominate in the refrigeration equipment used in cold storage,cold cabinets and refrigerated trucks in Chinas fresh food cold chain logistics.In the future,the R&D and promotion of low GWP refrigerants,represented by ammonia(R717),carbon dioxide(R744),propane(R290),and HFOs synthetic refrigerants,will provide an alternative to HFC refrigerants.Promote ammonia refrigerant R717 in large-scale cold storage:Although different refrigeration systems and refrigerants are adopted in cold storages under different temperatures,the main refrigerants used in Chinese cold storage are R22,R404A,R507A and R717,the first three of which are HFCs.About half of the newly-built cold storage units in China after 2013 are still using R507A,another 30 percent use refrigerants blended with R744,and 15 percent use R717(Gao et al.,2021).Although R717 has leakage risk,it can be rapidly applied and promoted after technical measures are taken to reduce the charging amount of the refrigerating system and to ensure its safe operation(Y.Yang&Fan,2020).Promote clean energy and low GWP refrigerants in refrigerated transportation:The increasing demand for fresh food has led to the rapid development of cold chain logistics,with the number of refrigerated trucks rising from 75,000 in 2014 to 180,000 in 2018,and sustaining an upward trend as the market expands(Dong et al.,2021).Currently 90 percent of refrigerated trucks rely on mechanical refrigeration systems,mainly diesel(Wu,2020).Among refrigerants for refrigerated trucks,R134a is dominant for medium temperature refrigeration and R404A for low temperature refrigeration,both of which belong to high GWP HFCs refrigerants(Gao et al.,2021).If a low GWP refrigerant,such as R744,is used in refrigerated vehicles,the fuel consumption and direct carbon footprint are significantly reduced compared to R134a under the same cooling capacity(Wu,2020).Research has also shown that the use of energy-efficient and environment-friendly refrigerants can reduce the carbon emissions of refrigeration systems in refrigerated vehicles by 48 to 100 percent,and that reducing the running time and weight of the refrigeration system,and employing clean energy,can reduce the total carbon footprint of refrigerated vehicles by 16.5 to 63.4 percent(Wu,2020).Promote CO2(R744)refrigerants in supermarket refrigerators:R22 and R404A are the main refrigerants used in Chinas supermarkets,accounting for 51 and 32 percent,respectively(Gao et al.,2021).The future alternative refrigerants are mainly CO2 refrigerants(R744),which have been adopted by 29,000 supermarkets in Europe and 5,000 supermarkets in Japan(Gao et al.,2021).The disadvantage of this refrigerant is that energy efficiency will be reduced at high temperatures.Studies of CO2-based refrigerants in Chinese supermarkets have shown an emissions reduction potential of 13 to 53 percent by replacing conventional refrigerants.Their promotion in northern Chinese cities appears to be more cost effective regarding technical factors(Cui et al.,2020).However,with technological improvements,there is still potential for replication in other regions of China.23 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS4.3.Food consumption emission reduction opportunitiesResource utilization of kitchen waste:biogas recovery from anaerobic digestion Methane produced from catering and food waste disposal is the main greenhouse gas emitted during food consumption.Existing policies and technologies provide opportunities for emissions reduction from kitchen waste.Household waste sorting promotes kitchen waste recycling:Under Chinas ongoing policy measures to separate household waste and recycle kitchen waste,the amount of mixed waste that ends up in landfill or incineration,as well as the resulting methane emissions,can be reduced if kitchen waste is sorted separately for treatment and disposal.Also,resource utilization of kitchen waste can reduce GHG emissions if the sorted kitchen waste can be treated by conversion to feed,anaerobic digestion or aerobic composting.Taking the ongoing food waste separation as an example,research shows that every 20 percent increase in the food waste sorting rate leads to an additional 5 to 7 percent reduction of carbon emissions from household waste(H.Li et al.,2021).Biogas recovery through anaerobic digestion of kitchen waste:For different food waste treatment modes,anaerobic digestion and aerobic composting have shown greater potential for recycling and have been promoted in Europe and the BOX 11.The first mile to keep agricultural products fresh mobile cold storageDevelopment of cold chain transportation can reduce losses and waste from not promptly preserving freshly-harvested produce.Therefore,the development of cold chain infrastructure should be the first step in handling agricultural products.The development of cold-chain transportation of agricultural products can reduce the loss and waste of freshly harvested agricultural products that are not preserved in a timely manner.Therefore,developing cold-chain infrastructure for the first mile of agricultural production should not be overlooked.Chinas largest asparagus farming complex is located in Lianshui,a county-level city in Jiangsu province,which produces 30 percent of domestic asparagus.To preserve the freshness of asparagus,which is not easy to store,the local power supply department has set up a mobile cold storage for pre-cooling the asparagus after it is picked but before it can be delivered to cold storage21.In order to avoid the aging of asparagus after picking under high temperature,State Grid Lianshui County Power Supply Company provided mobile cold storage for asparagus growers22.The mobile cold storage units can be driven directly to the farm to quickly lock in the freshness of the newly picked asparagus.Placing asparagus in the mobile cold storage within 10 minutes of harvesting can reduce losses by 20 to 30 percent and extend the freshness period of pre-cooled asparagus by about three days23.The area of the mobile cold storage is about 10 square meters,which is installed on a pure electric flatbed truck and powered by a set of UPS(Uninterruptible Power Supply)power supply.The UPS power supply can be used to cool a two hp compressor in the refrigerated compartment for about one hour,and there are one or two sets of backup battery packs at the same time.The vehicle and batteries can be recharged on a daily basis using a 200-volt power supply24.21.“Asparagus is Grown Fresh in the Fields with Mobile Refrigeration Units”.Lianshui News(2022).http:/ Refrigeration Units Arrive in the Fields to Keep Asparagus Fresh During Hot Weather”.Renminhao(2022).https:/ 23.“A Refrigerator in the Fields!Asparagus is Harvested Ahead of Time in Hot Weather”.Hubei News(2022).http:/ Refrigeration Units Arrive in the Fields to Keep Asparagus Fresh During Hot Weather”.Renminhao(2022).Report|October 2023 24U.S.(K.Wang et al.,2020).In the carbon emission analysis of food waste in these two treatment modes,the carbon reduction effect of anaerobic digestion is more significant,ranging from 65 to 209 kg CO2e/t.The net carbon emissions from aerobic composting of food waste are 165 kg CO2e/t due to more GHG leakage during aerobic composting(H.Li et al.,2021).In China,many currently operating kitchen waste treatment projects have been using anaerobic digestion.However,due to the complex composition of kitchen waste,the application of anaerobic digestion for kitchen waste still faces problems such as low biogas production and high operating costs(K.Wang et al.,2020).Nevertheless,there is potential for market application if efficient and stable operation can be achieved.There is still a large gap in Chinas kitchen waste treatment.Even if the kitchen waste treatment projects in the 13th Five-Year Plan are completed and put into operation as scheduled,the kitchen waste treatment rate will only be 20 percent.Therefore,there is considerable mitigation potential with the improvement of kitchen waste treatment capacity and anaerobic digestion technology.BOX 12.Biogas recovery from kitchen waste 25There are multiple ways for biogas to be recovered from kitchen waste treatment,including power generation,cogeneration,or purification and upgrading as vehicle fuel.But given the complex composition of kitchen waste,there are limited options for using solid or liquid digestates.Therefore,the newly built treatment projects need to consider the treatment costs and the application scenarios of these digestates.A kitchen waste treatment project located in the village of Dongnanshe in Taiyuan,Shanxi Province,covers an area of 11.4 acres and has a treatment plant with a daily treatment capacity of 500 tons.The first phase of project,which was put into trial operation in 2017,collected kitchen waste in six districts of Taiyuan and Qingxu counties with daily treatment capacity of 200 tons.The project was built under a BOT(Build-Own-Transfer)model,with a franchising period of 30 years.Operated by Taiyuan Tianrun Bioenergy Company,the total project investment is RMB 311 million yuan.According to the franchise agreement,the local government pays RMB 309 yuan per ton for kitchen collection and treatment.The project is currently in operation with a daily restaurant waste collection and treatment capacity of over 200 tons and annual biogas output of over 6 million m,which is upgraded to bio natural gas.Another major product is raw oil from oil-water separation.The liquid digestates from kitchen waste treatment are transported to a wastewater treatment plant and solid digestates are transported to an incineration plant in an industrial park.25.“Good Practices for Urban Solid Waste and Municipal Sludge Treatment in China”,iGDP(2021)25 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYSDietary shift:promote dietary guidelines A well-balanced diet is not only good for public health,it also helps with reducing GHG emissions(Jarmul et al.,2020;Tilman&Clark,2014).For example,a diet rich in vegetables,grains,and fruits with a reasonable control of meat consumption can reduce the risk of diabetes,cancer,and cardiovascular disease,and mitigate GHG emissions by 30 to 55 percent(Tilman&Clark,2014)Promote dietary guidelines:China has published the China Food and Nutrition Development Outline(2014-2020)and regularly updates the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents,both of which promote healthy diets for the public.The Outline shows that appropriate control of meat consumption based on the promotion of a diversified dietary structure has a mitigation potential of 0.53-222 million tons of CO2e per year(Song et al.,2017).A 2021 report published by AGFEP shows that in a baseline scenario without any dietary recommendations,trends in Chinas dietary structure will lead agricultural GHG emissions to increase by 85.44 million tons or 12 percent in 2030 compared to 2020(AGFEP,2021).If the Chinese Food Pagoda and the EAT-Lancet healthy diets were followed,in contrast,dietary restructuring would reduce agricultural GHG emissions by 146-202 million tons,or 18 to 25 percent,in 2030 compared to the baseline scenario(AGFEP,2021).It is important to note that any dietary restructuring to reduce GHG emissions must also maintain nutritional health.BOX 13.East Asian healthy diet model the Jiangnan dietDietary patterns vary across China due to geography,climate and culture.To promote better nutrition and prevent chronic diseases through balanced diets,the Chinese Nutrition Society regularly publishes dietary guidelines for the public.In the 2022 edition of the guidelines,the diets of the Jiangnan region of China,represented by Zhejiang,Shanghai and Jiangsu,are promoted as one of the East Asian Healthy Dietary Patterns.The Scientific Research Report on Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents(2021)describes the Jiangnan diet as one that is based on rice,with a higher intake of fish and shrimp,a lower intake of pork,and lightly cooked with less oil and salt.People who follow this diet have a greater life expectancy and a lower risk of diseases such as obesity,type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome26.The Jiangnan diet has also been described as the“five more and three less”diet:specifically,more white meat(such as chicken,duck,goose and fish),more nuts,more whole grains,more fruits and vegetables and more steaming;less deep frying,less sugary and rich food,and less refined rice27.26.“Scientific Research Report on the Chinese Resident Dietary Guidelines.”China Nutrition Society(2021).27.“Why is Jiangnan Cuisine Known as Chinas Healthiest Diet”?The Paper(2021).https:/ 2023 26Food waste reduction:promote green consumptionReducing consumer food waste not only reduces GHG emissions from disposing of food waste,but also reduces the demand for food production and resulting emissions.An analysis of food loss and waste in China showed that between 2014 and 2018 the countrys average annual GHG emissions due to food loss and waste came to about 464 million tonnes of CO2e,with more than 200 million tonnes of CO2e coming from food waste at the consumption level(Xue et al.,2021).The analysis also shows that a 50 percent reduction in food waste at the consumption level is equivalent to a 50 percent reduction in food loss and waste at the retail level of food production and transportation.Greenhouse gas emissions based on different dining scenarios also show that that the highest GHG emissions per person per meal are wasted in restaurants,followed by cafeterias,takeaways,and then dining at home(Tsinghua University School of Environment et al.,2023).Therefore,actively promoting anti-food waste practices among individuals and food service sector can sustainably reduce the resulting emissions.Efforts in this direction include the Clean Plate Campaign,which has been running since 2013,as well as restaurants and takeaway platforms beginning to include smaller portion options in recent years.BOX 14.Business innovation to reduce food wasteShelf life was created along with the food industry,and near-expired food is food that is about to reach the expiration date but has yet to expire.In principle,the quality of food is guaranteed as long as it is within its expiration date,but near-expired food is nevertheless difficult to sell and often ends up being discarded.With the rise of sustainable consumption,Hotmaxx is one of several companies and supermarkets that are reducing food waste from near-expired food products.Since its establishment,Hotmaxx has been helping consumers develop sustainable consumption concepts and lifestyles by leveraging the turnover of surplus resources.In 2021,more than 400 Hotmaxx outlets across the country served a total of more than 13 million customers and circulated more than 300 million items,directly reducing more than 70,000 tonnes of food waste,equivalent to saving about 140,000 tonnes of carbon emissions28.In August and September 2022,Hotmaxx partnered with DBS Bank in holding a Zero Waste Month,when they connected offline stores with social media platforms,and invited seven bloggers with 5 million followers and 100 Key Opinion Consumers(KOCs)to promote the idea of“No Food Waste”to consumers.More than 40,000 people participated in the event,saving more than 122 tons of food from being wasted,equivalent to reducing 243.8 tons of GHG emissions29.28.“HotMaxx Leading Low-Carbon Consumption,Creating a Better Life”.Qilu Evening News(2022).29.Ibid.27 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS?：Marta Markes on Unsplash5.GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION SCENARIOS FOR CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMReport|October 2023 28TABLE 4.Key assumptions for GHG emission scenarios for Chinas agri-food systemEMISSIONS SOURCE REFERENCE SCENARIOASSUMPTIONS FOR EASASSUMPTIONS FOR DDSEMISSIONS UNDER RS IN 2030(%)EMISSIONS UNDER RS IN 2060Agricultural production57.2h.7%Emission reduction from livestock farming:promote biogas recovery from livestock and poultry manure and large-scale livestock farming;promote animal breeding,and use of feed supplements including tea saponins and probiotics.Emission reduction from rice cultivation:improve irrigation management,i.e.,alternate wetting and drying irrigation.Emission reduction from farmland:advance soil testing-based fertilizer use and conservation tillage.Emission reduction from agricultural inputs:promote biodegradable agricultural films and adjust nitrogen fertilizer production in response to the decline in nitrogen fertilizer use.Emission reduction from agricultural energy consumption:improve the energy efficiency of agricultural machinery.Emission reduction from livestock farming:consider dietary shift based on the EAS;adopt supplement feed with tea saponin,probiotics and lipids.Emission reduction from rice farming:improve irrigation management and promote dry direct seeding of rice.Emission reduction from farmland:promote the use of slow-release fertilizers and fertilizer enhancers based on the EAS.Emission reduction from agricultural inputs:increase efforts to promote biodegradable agricultural films,further improve the energy efficiency of pesticide and fertilizer use per unit.Emission reduction from agricultural energy consumption:improve the energy efficiency and promote the electrification of agricultural machinery.Food processing8.7%5.2%Improve energy efficiency in food processing.Improve energy efficiency and energy substitution in food processing.Food packaging5.8%5.6%Use biodegradable materials for plastic packaging.Encourage the replacement of plastic food containers with paper cartons.Improve the recycling of paper cartons.Advance the use of biodegradable materials in plastic packaging,encourage the use of recycled plastics for food containers.Improve recycling rates for cardboard boxes and use a higher proportion of wastepaper for packaging.This section describes three scenarios that illustrate alternative emissions and mitigation trajectories for Chinas agri-food system.The three scenarios vary in terms of policy ambition and mitigation practices.5.1.Three scenario settings Reference Scenario(RS):In this scenario,GHG emissions from the agri-food system are estimated based on Chinas current pathway for economic and social development and green low-carbon transition.Enhanced Action Scenario(EAS):This scenario maps out a mitigation pathway with the continuation and enhancement of green and low-carbon actions that have already been implemented,as well as cost-effective mitigation actions that have not yet been adopted.Deep Decarbonization Scenario(DDS):This scenario describes a deep decarbonization pathway with the adoption of all feasible mitigation actions based on international and domestic mitigation practices.It includes actions that go beyond ones in EAS and includes,1)higher-cost mitigation practices,2)low-cost mitigation actions at a greater speed and coverage,and,3)mitigation actions from behavioral changes on the consumption side.29 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS5.2.Key findings1.GHG emissions from Chinas agri-food system will continue to grow in the reference scenarioIn the reference scenario,GHG emissions from Chinas agri-food system continue to grow under existing mitigation measures,and total GHG emissions are 30%higher in 2060 compared to the 2019 level.GHG emissions from agricultural production continue to grow,while emissions from food processing,transportation,retail,cooking,and waste disposal show a slow downward trend after peaking,due in large part to energy efficiency improvements.GHG growth mainly comes from methane and nitrous oxide emissions,which continue to grow in this scenario.Between 2019 and 2060,CH4 emissions increase from 519 million tons of CO2e to 1 billion tons,while N2O emissions increase slowly from 273 million tons of CO2e to 330 million tons.In addition,F-gases emissions continue to grow until around 2040 and then slowly decline.CO2 emissions,however,begin to gradually decrease after 2030.EMISSIONS SOURCE REFERENCE SCENARIOASSUMPTIONS FOR EASASSUMPTIONS FOR DDSEMISSIONS UNDER RS IN 2030(%)EMISSIONS UNDER RS IN 2060Food transport5.7%4.5%Improve the energy efficiency of transportation.Promote low GWP refrigerants in cold chain.Increase the proportion of food transportation that is electrified,improve energy efficiency and promote the electrification of light freight transport.Continue to promote low GWP refrigerants in the cold chain.Food retail0.4%0.3%N/AN/AFood cooking13.7%Improve the energy efficiency of cooking.Further optimize the energy use structure for cooking.Kitchen waste disposal8.5%5.7%Promote a higher waste sorting rate and resource utilization of food waste.Incinerate food waste to generate energy.Further improve resource utilization of food waste based on the EAS.Incinerate food waste to generate energy.TABLE 4.Key assumptions for GHG emission scenarios for Chinas agri-food systemTABLE 7.Projected GHG emissions by agri-food system component under the reference scenario(Mt CO2e)Waste disposalCookingFood retailFood transportFood packagingFood processingAgricultural production2500.002000.001500.001000.00500.000.0020192040203020502060Report|October 2023 302.Carbon neutrality challenges in Chinas agri-food systemFigure 9 shows GHG emissions pathways for Chinas agri-food system under different scenarios.Under the reference scenario,GHG emissions are 1.646 billion tons of CO2e in 2019,increasing to 1.789 billion tons of CO2e in 2030 and 2.162 billion tons of CO2e in 2060.Under the enhanced action scenario,GHG emissions from Chinas agri-food system start to gently decline from around 2025 to 1.614 billion tons of CO2e in 2030 and to 1.58 billion tons of CO2e in 2060,a 36 percent reduction compared to the 2060 level under the reference scenario.GHG emissions under this scenario maintain a small increase up to about 2048,mainly attributed to GHG emissions from livestock management.Under the deep decarbonization scenario,GHG emissions from Chinas agri-food system are already on a gradual downward trend from 2020.They decrease to 1.408 billion tons of CO2e and 651 million tons of CO2e by 2030 and 2060,respectively,which in 2060 is 70 percent less than under the reference scenario.However,this scenario still fails to achieve near-zero emissions.The GHG emissions pathways under the three different scenarios are shown below:TABLE 8.Projected GHG emissions by gas in Chinas agri-food system under the reference scenario(Mt CO2e)TABLE 9.Projected GHG emissions in Chinas agri-food system under three scenarios(Mt CO2e)CH4F-gasesN2OCO22500.002000.001500.001000.00500.000.0020192040203020502060Reference ScenarioEnhanced Action ScenarioDeep Decarbonization Scenario2500.002000.001500.001000.00500.000.00202020222024202620282050203020322034203620382040204220442046204831 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYSMitigation potential by agri-food system component under the three scenarios:FIGURE 10.Mitigation potential by agri-food system component in the enhanced action and deep decarbonization scenarios(Mt CO2e)Food waste disposalFood cookingFood retailFood transportFood packagingFood processingAgricultural productionEnhanced action scenarioReference scenarioDeep decarbonization scenario2500.002000.00MtCO2e1500.001000.00500.000.0020202050203020402500.002000.00MtCO2e1500.001000.00500.000.002020205020302040Report|October 2023 32Mitigation potential by gas under the three scenarios:FIGURE 11.Mitigation potential by gas in Chinas agri-food system under the enhanced action scenario and deep decarbonization scenario(Mt CO2e)CH4F-gasesN2OCO2Enhanced Action ScenarioDeep Decarbonization Scenario-Reference Scenario2500.002500.002000.002000.00MtCO2eMtCO2e1500.001500.001000.001000.00500.00500.000.000.002020202020502050203020302040204033 THE AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM AND CARBON NEUTRALITY AN ANALYSIS OF CHINAS AGRICULTURE-AND FOOD-RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYSTABLE 5.GHG emissions mitigation by gas under enhanced action and deep decarbonization scenariosENHANCED ACTION SCENARIO 2050 VS.2019DEEP DECARBONIZATION SCENARIO 2050 VS.2019CH4Increase by 40crease by 43%N2ODecrease by 14crease by 50%F-gasesPeak around 2030 and then slowly decrease to 2020 levelPeak around 2030 and then slowly decrease to 2020 levelCO2Decrease by 34crease by 50%FIGURE 12.Mitigation potential of major reduction actions under the deep decarbonization scenarioRS 2019RS 2050Enteric fermentationCooking energy saving and electrificationLow-carbon transportBehavior changeDDS 2050Fertilizer use reductionAgricultural machinery energy-saving and electrificationResource utilization of kitchen wastePlastic reduction&recyclingManure managementRice cultivationClean engergy in food processing020040060080010001200140016001800200037%3.GHG emissions reduction for the agri-food system calls for systematic change As illustrated below,focusing only on reducing emissions from agricultural production will not achieve carbon neutrality in Chinas agri-food system.In 2050,only 37 percent of the mitigation potential in the agri-food system will come from agricultural production.A great effort will have to be made to unlock the large mitigation potential in other stages of the agri-food system.Report|October 2023 344.Chinas existing green development actions could unlock two-thirds of its mitigation potentialAs shown in Figure 13,69 and 60 percent of mitigation potential in 2030 and 2050,respectively,will come from enhancing existing green development actions,including actions in green agriculture,clean energy promotion and the circular economy designed to address environmental pollution and protect public health.The remaining one-third comes from strengthening low-carbon actions,including low-carbon agricultural actions and behavioral change at the food consumption end.The green development actions can be categorized as shown in Table 6:MITIGATION ACTIONSENHANCE EXISTING GREEN DEVELOPMENT ACTIONSGreen development actionsGreen agricultureResource utilization of livestock and poultry manureSoil testing and conservation tillagePromote the use of enviro
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Report|Nov 2023 1BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIES2 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWe are grateful to the following experts who provided their support and insights on the field work and development of this case study report(listed alphabetically by last name):CHEN Qinglong Jiangxi Zhenghe Carbon Neutrality Institute for Agriculture and Rural DevelopmentCHU Yu PDT Food CollectiveHE Qijing Climate-Friendly Rice Farming ProjectHU Xiaoping Chengdu Action for Home Public Service CenterJIANG Nanqing Qinghe New Carbon(Beijing)Environmental Technology Co.LI Ying The Nature ConservancyLIU Shangwen Climate-Friendly Rice Farming ProjectZUO Zhi Pesticide Eco-Alternatives Center(PEAC)Thanks to Wang Yanhui for support on the field work for the case studies,to Yang Li,Chen Simin and Yao Zhe for suggestions and feedback on this report,and to Yuan Yating for coordination on report design.Thanks to Zhang Ye for the report layout design.AUTHORS Chen Meian,Project Director/Senior Analyst,Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress(iGDP)ZhuTongxin,Assistant Analyst,iGDPYuYang Jinqi,consultant,iGDPHu Min,Director of iGDPTranslators:He Jun,Yu Nan,Phillip Neel,Kerry AllenDisclaimer:Copy editor:Diego Montero,Strategy Director,iGDPThe content of this report is based on publicly available and reliable sources of information and is intended to enhance discussion in the relevant fields.The contents and opinions contained in the report represent the authors knowledge and judgment to date,and do not reflect the positions of the authors affiliated organizations or supporting organizations.While we have tried to be accurate and complete,there may be occasional omissions.Please contact us if you have any questions.Suggested citation:Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress.(2023).Building Sustainability into Chinas Agri-food System Fourteen Case Studies.Beijing.Institute for Global Decarbonization ProgressReport|Nov 2023 3November 2023BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESReport|Nov 2023 1TABLE OF CONTENTSBackground .21.TheAgri-foodSystemandClimateChange.22.ProgressinPolicyActionsDrivingAgri-foodSystemTransition.33.CaseStudies.5Actions and Cases .7Action:NitrogenFertilizerReduction.8Case1:Technology-AssistedPrecisionFertilizationReducingtheUseofChemicalFertilizers.8Case2:TurningBarrenLandintoFertileSoilPromotingConservationTillage.10Action:MethaneReductioninEntericFermentation.12Case3:CulinaryArtsforRuminantsReducingLivestockEntericFermentation.12Action:MethaneReductioninRiceCultivation.14Case4:Climate-FriendlyRiceCultivation.14Action:LivestockandPoultryManureManagement.16Case5:ManureMattersLivestockandPoultryManureasaResource.16Action:EnergyEfficiencyandElectrificationinAgriculturalMachinery.18Case6:APreliminaryExplorationofAgriculturalMachineryElectrification.18Action:EnergyEfficiencyandEmissionReductioninFoodProcessing.21Case7:EnergyEfficiencyImprovementandEnergySubstitutioninFoodProcessingandManufacturing.21Action:Low-carbonTransportation.23Case8:SolvingtheFirstMileMobileColdStorageintheField.23Case9:CarbonReductioninFoodTransportationElectrificationofLightFreightTransport.25Action:PlasticsReductionandRecycling.27Case10:ANewDawnforSurplusFoodInnovatingBusinessPracticestoReduceFoodWaste.27Case11:ReducingFoodPackagingtoCutDownonPlastics.29Action:Energy-EfficiencyandElectrificationinCooking.31Case12:ElectrificationEmpowersLow-CarbonandSafeChineseCooking.31Action:ResourceUtilizationofKitchenWaste.33Case13:LeftoverFoodAHotCommodityinTermsofPowerandCompost.33Action:DietaryShiftandBehavioralChange.35Case14:AdvocatingEnvironmentally-FriendlyDietsinthePearlRiverDeltaRegionHowRestaurantOrdersCanReduceFoodEmissions.352 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESBACKGROUNDReport|Nov 2023 31.The Agri-food System and Climate Change The agri-food system is a holistic system that encompasses the set of actors and their activities in agricultural production,food processing,packaging,transportation,retail,and consumption.This system includes stakeholders such as farmers,businesses and policymakers,as well as the different social,economic,and natural environments in which these actors operate.1 The agri-food system is closely linked to climate change.Many agri-food system activities,such as crop production,livestock farming,use of agricultural machinery,food processing,utilization of packaging materials,cold chain transportation,and cooking,contribute to greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.Globally,the agri-food system generates approximately one-third of the total GHG emissions annually.2 In 2019,Chinas agri-food system emissions reached around 1.65 billion tons of CO2e,accounting for 14%of that years total GHG emissions.3 Meanwhile,the increased frequency of extreme events due to climate change can exacerbate the volatility of agricultural production,posing a challenge to agricultural productivity.Between 2008 and 2018,63%of global losses and damages caused by extreme weather occurred in the agricultural sector.4 Studies indicate that,influenced by climate change,Chinas rice,wheat,and corn yields face significant risks of substantial decline.5 Climate change also affects livestock productivity in terms of animal health,growth environment,and feed quality,and has implications for Chinas food security.6 The variability in grain production due to climate change has reached around 10%in certain years.Potential increases in the demand for agricultural irrigation water may lead to a decrease in grain yield per unit area.7 This impact of climate change is more pronounced on low-income food producers and consumers,who face greater challenges in coping with climate disasters and ensuring access to safe and healthy food.A sustainable agri-food transition not only enhances the resilience of the agri-food system to climate change,but also promotes food security,biodiversity conservation,and public health.It can reduce damage to the ecosystem caused by monoculture and intensive farming,and enhanced food security and balanced diets can reduce the incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease due to dietary shift.82.Progress in Policy Actions Driving Agri-food System Transition The mitigation pathway for the agri-food system is becoming clear.Actions such as fertilizer recommendations,irrigation management,resource utilization of livestock and poultry manure,kitchen waste recycling,and waste sorting,as well as mitigation technologies such as green logistics and precision agriculture,are shaping GHG emissions in the agri-food system and providing opportunities for emission reduction.Given Chinas large population and limited arable land,attention to agricultural production and food security has always been at the core of Chinas policy agenda.The country has formulated and implemented multiple actions for sustainable development in agriculture and rural areas,including strategies and policies for agricultural green development,soil 1.Nguyen,H.(2018).Sustainable food systems:Concept and framework.Food and Agriculture Organization.https:/www.fao.org/3/ca2079en/CA2079EN.pdf 2.Crippa,M.,Solazzo,E.,Guizzardi,D.,Monforti-Ferrario,F.,Tubiello,F.N.,&Leip,A.(2021).Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions.Nature Food,112.3.Chen Meian,Hu Min,Yang Li&Ma Zhong(2022).Agri-food Systems and Carbon Neutrality:An Analysis of Agriculture and Food-related Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathways in China.Working paper.Beijing:Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress(iGDP).4.FAO.(2021).The Impact of Disaster and Crisis on Agriculture and Food Security.Food and Agriculture Organization.5.Ahmed,J.,Almeida,E.,Aminetzah,D.,Denis,N.,Henderson,K.,Katz,J.,Kitchel,H.,&Mannion,P.(2020).Agriculture and climate change:Reducing emissions through improved farming practices.McKingsey&Company.6.Liang Hong,Chen Meian,Hu Min,Wu Wanyi&Geng Haomiao.(2022).Envisioning Agricultural Carbon NeutralityA New Green Revolution.Hillhouse Group,Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress,and Institute of Finance and Sustainability.7.Liu Litao,Liu Xiaojie,Lun Fei,Wu Liang,Lu Chunxia,Guo Jinhua,Qu Tingting,Liu Gang,Shen Lei&Cheng Shengkui(2018).Research on Chinas Food Security Issues Under Global Climate Change.Journal of Natural Resources,33(6),927939.8.Tilman,D.,&Clark,M.(2014).Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health.Nature,515(7528),518522.4 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESconservation,rural revitalization,and ensuring food security.Since 2004,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council have annually released the No.1 Document,outlining work arrangements for agriculture and rural areas.The 2017 No.1 Document proposed a shift from over-reliance on resource consumption and meeting quantity demands to pursuing green,ecologically sustainable development and focusing on meeting qualitative demands.9 In the 2021 No.1 Document,agricultural green development is identified as an important part of advancing agricultural modernization,emphasizing the need to protect a red line of 1.8 billion mu of arable land.The 2019 White Paper Food Security in China emphasizes the necessity of not only protecting the red line of arable land but also improving land quality and protecting the natural environment to increase grain production capacity,with the widespread application of agricultural technology expected to contribute to food growth.11 To address GHG emissions from food processing,transportation,and consumption,China has implemented mitigation measures such as industrial energy conservation,green low-carbon transportation,and waste management.Although the primary goals of these actions are not necessarily carbon mitigation,they lead to GHG emission reduction co-benefits in the agri-food system.Table 1 summarizes policies that can reduce GHG emissions in the agri-food system by stage.9.2017 CPC“No.1 Document”http:/ 10.2021 CPC”No.1 Document”http:/ 11.The State Council Information Office of the Peoples Republic of China.(2019).White Paper on Food Security in China.http:/ TABLE 1.Policy Actions Driving GHG Emission Reduction in the Agri-food SystemMAJOR EMISSION SOURCESPOLICY ACTIONSKEY POLICY DOCUMENTSAgricultural ProductionNitrogen Fertilizer Promote the reduction of chemical fertilizer and pesticide use and substituting with organic fertilizer.Establish a long-term mechanism for replacing organic fertilizer with chemical fertilizer in the cultivation of fruits,vegetables,and tea.Provide subsidies for the purchase and use of organic fertilizer.Opinions on Accelerating the Prevention and Control of Agricultural Plastic Film Pollution Action Plan for Controlling Greenhouse Gas Emissions during the 13th Five-Year Plan National Green Development Plan for Agriculture during the 14th Five-Year Plan Scheme for Improving Soil Quality and Protection Opinions on Comprehensively Promoting Rural Revitalization and Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization Digital Agriculture and Rural Development Plan(2019-2025)Working Guidance for Carbon Dioxide Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in Full and Faithful Implementation of the New Development Philosophy Action Plan for Peak Carbon Emissions by 2030 Implementation Plan for Agricultural and Rural Emission Reduction and Carbon SequestrationRice Cultivation Select high-yielding and low-emission varieties.Improve water and fertilizer management.Increase carbon sequestration capacity through rational farmland management practices.Livestock Farming Enhance the resource utilization of livestock and poultry manure.Promote low-protein feed,whole-plant silage,and technologies for high-yield,low-emission livestock and poultry breeds.Agricultural Machinery Promote smart agriculture.Promote the adoption of green agricultural machinery,support the inclusion of intelligent equipment in agricultural machinery purchase subsidies.Agricultural Input(Pesticides,Fertilizers,Agricultural Film)Promote the recycling of agricultural films and the use of environmentally friendly biodegradable films.Implement a zero-growth policy for chemical fertilizers and pesticides.Report|Nov 2023 53.Case StudiesThis report presents fourteen case studies on actions being taken to drive Chinas sustainable agri-food transition.The selection of cases is based on key mitigation actions that have been identified in previous research(Table 2).They explore local practices under specific abatement actions and briefly analyze the key elements needed for replication.The cases show how different stakeholders in the agri-food system can help achieve emissions reduction through mechanism design and innovation,leading to economic,environmental,and social benefits.TABLE 1.Policy Actions Driving GHG Emission Reduction in the Agri-food SystemMAJOR EMISSION SOURCESPOLICY ACTIONSKEY POLICY DOCUMENTSFarm to TableFood Processing Energy efficiency improvement in the food processing industry.Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Transformation and Development of the Packaging Industry in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan The 14th Five-Year Plan for the Circular Economy Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Cold Chain Logistics to Ensure Food Safety and Promote Consumption Upgrading The 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Green Economy Kigali Amendment Green and Efficient Refrigeration Solutions The 14th Five-Year Plan for the Energy System The 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Cold Chain LogisticsFood Packaging Promote green packaging,and apply recyclable packaging for express delivery packaging up to 10 million units.Food Transportation Develop green and low-carbon transportation for agricultural products.Food Retail Improve the energy efficiency of commercial refrigerators and display cabinets.Promote the use of low global warming potential(GWP)refrigerants.Food ConsumptionCooking Guide cooking electrification.The 14th Five-Year Plan for Building Energy Efficiency and Green Building Development Implementation Plan for Coordinated Reduction of Pollution and Carbon Emissions Promote the use of renewable energy in rural cooking,agricultural product processing facilities,etc.Kitchen Waste Disposal Promote waste sorting and resource utilization of household waste and restaurant waste.Implementation Plan for the Classification of Household Garbage Law of the Peoples Republic of China on the Prevention and Control of Environmental Pollution by Solid Waste Outline of Chinas Food and Nutrition Development(2014-2020)Chinas Anti-Food Waste Law Chinas Residents Dietary Guidelines Reduce food waste,formulate and revise relevant national standards,industry standards,and local standards to prevent and reduce waste.Behavioral Changes Adjust residents dietary structure.6 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESTABLE 2.Key Mitigation Actions in the Agri-food System and Associated Case StudiesPRIORITY ACTIONSMAIN MEASURESMITIGATION POTENTIAL IN 2050CASE STUDIESAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONNitrogen Fertilizer ReductionAdoption of nitrogen fertilizer enhancers,slow-release fertilizers,continued promotion of soil testing and conservation tillage.10se 1:Technology-Assisted Precision Fertilization Reducing the Use of Chemical FertilizersCase 2:Turning Barren Land into Fertile Soil Promoting Conservation TillageEmission Reduction in Enteric FermentationSelective breeding,feeding strategy adjustment,feed additives.Case 3:Culinary Arts for Ruminants Reducing Livestock Enteric Fermentation Methane Emission Reduction in Rice CultivationAdjust irrigation management,adopting dry-wet alternate irrigation,and promote dry direct seeding.Case 4:Climate-Friendly Rice CultivationLivestock and Poultry Manure ManagementBiogas recovery:biogas generated by anaerobic fermentation of livestock and poultry manure.Case 5:Manure Matters Livestock and Poultry Manure as a ResourceEnergy Efficiency and Electrification in Agricultural MachineryImprove the efficiency of agricultural machinery and promote the electrification of medium and small-scale farm machinery.Case 6:3%6.6%5.8%A Preliminary Exploration of Agricultural Machinery ElectrificationFARM TO TABLEEnergy Efficiency and Emission Reduction in Food ProcessingImprove energy efficiency and promote renewable energy use in food processing.5se 7:Energy Efficiency Improvement and Energy Substitution in Food Processing and ManufacturingLow Carbon TransportationImprove transportation efficiency and promote the electrification of light-duty freight and the use of low-GWP refrigerants.7se 8:Solving the First Mile-Mobile Cold Storage in the Field Case 9:Carbon Reduction in Food Transportation-Electrification of Light Freight TransportPlastics Reduction and RecyclingSimplify packaging,using recyclable and biodegradable packaging materials.2.8se 10:A New Dawn for Surplus Food Innovating Business Practices to Reduce Food WasteCase 11:Reducing Food Packaging to Cut Down on PlasticsFOOD CONSUMPTIONEnergy Efficiency and Electrification in CookingPromote energy-efficient cooking and electrification of cooking.12.8se 12:Electrification Empowering Low-Carbon and Safe Chinese Cooking Resource Utilization of Kitchen Waste Promote waste sorting and kitchen waste resource utilization.5se 13:Leftover Food-A Hot Commodity in Terms of Power and CompostDietary Shift and Behavioral Change*Promote dietary guidelines for residents and advocate for local food consumption.-Case 14:Advocating Environmentally-Friendly Diets in the Pearl River Delta Region-How Restaurant Orders Can Reduce Food Emissions*Note:Dietary shift mainly refers to reducing animal-based food consumption and encouraging local food consumption,which can reduce emissions in agricultural production and food transportation.Considering the large uncertainty surrounding behavior change,quantitative analysis is not performed here.Numerous studies have shown that reducing animal food consumption has large emissions reduction potential,a dynamic that deserves greater attention.7 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESACTIONS AND CASESReport|Nov 2023 8Action:Nitrogen Fertilizer ReductionMitigation Potential:Specific Practices:Promoting the reduction of nitrogen fertilizer usage,enhancing efficiency,and improving soil health.10%Emissions mitigation in manure managementLow-carbon transportationPlastic reduction&recyclingClean engergy use in food processingResource utilization of kitchen wasteEmissions mitigation in enteric fermentationCooking energy saving and electrificationFertilizer use reductionEmissions mitigation in rice cultivationAgricultural machinery energy-saving and electrificationCase 1:Technology-Assisted Precision Fertilization Reducing the Use of Chemical FertilizersProblemsAlthough fertilizers play a crucial role in promoting crop production and increasing agricultural yields,their excessive use has led to a series of environmental problems.While Chinas fertilizer use decreased from 602.2 million tons in 2015 to 519.1 million tons in 202112,its fertilizer use intensity was around 307 kg/hectare,still far beyond the internationally accepted limit of 225 kg/hectare.ApproachWith the rise of smart agriculture,information technologies such as big data,remote sensing,and unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)have been applied and promoted in crop cultivation and management.For example,using sensors on UAVs to collect information on soil,crops,as well as environmental data like weather and temperature,and then employing big data analysis to provide farmers with suggestions on planting,irrigation,and fertilization,can increase yield and conserve resources.9 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESSmart Fertilizer Blending Machine:Sinofert,one of the largest fertilizer producers in China,has introduced smart fertilizer blending service stations nationwide since 2014,using smart fertilizer blending machines for soil testing and fertilization.13 Farmers can use the corresponding application software on the internet-connected smart fertilizer blending terminal to input planting information and provide soil samples.The fertilizer blending machine conducts a rapid soil test and transmits the results to the cloud.The cloud server calculates planting schemes,required fertilizer formulas,and prices based on the soil test results.It eventually generates a fertilizer blending order and sends it to the farmers smartphone.14 Calculations show that the smart fertilizer blending system can directly reduce fertilizer application and cost by 10%to 30%,while increasing crop yield by 5%and farmers income by 10%.15Smart Farm:In a small town in Jiangsu Province,farmers have established an unmanned planting demonstration farm with the help of smart agriculture equipment.16 The 5000 acres of farmland are operated by a three-person management team.Before planting,remote sensing drones are used to survey the fields,obtaining high-resolution maps,including information on the area and topography of the farmland.Based on this information,precision management of the plots is carried out.During the growth of rice,remote sensing drones,combined with AI models,analyze the growth of the rice and monitor for diseases and pests.Meanwhile,smart cameras with sensors installed on the field embankments provide data on soil moisture and temperature,reminding farmers to perform various tasks.17 Moreover,the drone can carry out precise fertilization and pesticide spraying when needed in the rice field.18 Under the management of smart agriculture,the use of pesticides and fertilizers per unit area of crops in the farm has been reduced by 10%,and crop yields have increased by 10%,compared with traditional production.19 Key takeaways The collection and updating of soil data on farmland is the basis for precise fertilization,so regular soil nutrient testing and analysis and data updating are needed to select fertilizers with the right nutrients.As a technology-and knowledge-intensive industry,smart agriculture requires the participation of farmers who master modern agricultural production skills and operate modern agricultural equipment,so it is crucial to provide technical training to farmers and attract young farmers to join the industry.Given the high cost of intelligent monitoring and remote sensing equipment and Chinas smallholder farming-dominated agriculture,the promotion of industrialized management in agriculture can help reduce per-unit costs.12.National Statistical Yearbook.13.Farmers Daily.(2016).Building a New Situation of Reduction and Writing a New Chapter of Efficiency http:/ 14.Yicai.(2016).Chinese Farmers Experience Precision Agriculture,Completing Smart Fertilization on Mobile Phones.https:/ 15.Farmers Daily.(2016).Soil Testing and Fertilization,One-Click Ordering,Precision Fertilization with Mobile Operation.http:/ 16.Senning.(2022).Three Post-90s Individuals Manage 5,000 Acres of Farmland in Jiangsu:Cultivating,Managing,and Harvesting with Smart Agriculture Systems.The Paper.https:/ 17.Zhang Ye,Wu Ting.(2022).Flying Agricultural Activities with Drones Digital Technology Makes Agriculture Smarter.Science and Technology Daily.(2022).http:/ 18.Same as above.19.XAG.(2023).XAG Corporate Social Responsibility Report 2022.https:/ FIGURE 1.A drone flying above a rice paddyPhoto credit:viya0414 on PixabayReport|Nov 2023 10Case 2:Turning Barren Land into Fertile Soil Promoting Conservation TillageIn enhancing agricultures resilience to climate change,restoring soil fertility and improving soil health can reduce the use of pesticides and fertilizers while increasing the carbon sequestration capacity of soil.Globally,a systematic agricultural production management model based on sustainable land use,with the main goal of realizing regenerative agriculture is beginning to be promoted.Although China has not explicitly applied the concept of regenerative agriculture to manage agricultural production,some existing agricultural practices are in line with its principles.Taking the adoption of conservation tillage,a key technique in regenerative agriculture featuring no-tillage,less tillage and the use of straw cover,as an example,China has been experimenting with no-tillage in wheat cultivation in Heilongjiang Province since the 1960s.In 2005,the No.1 Document elevated the development of conservation tillage to a national policy.20 ProblemNortheast Chinas black soil is one of the most fertile soil types in the world,and it accounts for a quarter of Chinas grain production,which is critical to national food security.However,since its cultivation began,the black soil layer has decreased from 50 centimeters to 30 centimeters,and organic matter content has declined by one-third,with a 20%reduction in productivity.21 ApproachIn 2007,the Chinese Academy of Sciences,in collaboration with the Agricultural Technology Extension Center of Lishu County and the Soil and Fertilizer Workstation of Jilin Province,established the Chinese Academy of Sciences Conservation Tillage Research and Development Base.Local pilot projects conducted between 2007 and 2018 revealed significant improvements,with soil organic matter increasing from 22.5g/kg to 24g/kg.The practice of straw returning to the field not only enhanced the accumulation and activity of nutrients like nitrogen,phosphorus,and potassium in the plow layer but also increased the soils nutrient supply capacity.Moreover,there were improvements in soil structure,enhanced soil biodiversity,and increased resistance to drought.22 Beyond emission reduction and environmental benefits,conservation can also improve yields and incomes.In 2017,the experimental base in Lishu achieved an increase in yield of approximately 1000 kg/ha.Conservation tillage also raised nitrogen fertilizer utilization by 4.7%,and reduced fertilizer use,the number of times farm machinery entered the field,fuel consumption,and labor costs,saving an average cost saving of 1650 yuan($226)per hectare.23 ProblemIn the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,Chinas main grain-producing area,despite the winter wheat yield in this region having increased from around 2.6 tons per hectare to 5.7 tons per hectare,over the past 40 years the intensive cultivation of winter wheat-summer maize has brought a decline in land quality and water scarcity.ApproachIn May 2020,the Run Tian project was jointly initiated by the Agricultural Mechanization Institute of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Syngenta China,China Agricultural University,and The Nature Conservancy.The project conducted trials and demonstrations of conservation tillage techniques for winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai region.The key technical points of conservation tillage involve completing sowing,fertilization,and compaction operations in one go under 20.Ao Man,Zhang Xudong,Guan Yixin.(2021).Research and Practice of Conservation Tillage Technology in Northeast Black Soil.Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,36(10),1203-1215.21.Chongqing Morning Post.(2022).Experts Say Productivity of Northeast Black Soil Decreased by 20%.The Black Soil Becomes Thinner,Leaner,and Harder.http:/ 22.Ao Man,Zhang Xudong,Guan Yixin.(2021).Research and Practice of Conservation Tillage Technology in Northeast Black Soil.Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,36(10),1203-1215.23.Ibid.11 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESthe straw cover of crop residues.Compared with traditional cultivation methods,this method saves the number of agricultural machinery operations and reduces farmers costs and time for planting grain.24 Through the promotion of conservation tillage,both water and nutrient use efficiency have been improved in the wheat-maize zone of this region.Data from the 2020 to 2022 trials indicate that conservation tillage can improve soil fertility compared to local conventional tillage.25 In the 0-40 cm soil layer,the total nitrogen and phosphorus content increased by approximately 13%and 10%,respectively,and soil organic carbon content increased by about 7%.It also increased soil water storage by about 7%.The demonstration project also showed that conservation tillage yielded the same or slightly higher wheat yields than conventional tillage,resulting in lower production costs and higher net benefits for farmers.Reducing the frequency of agricultural machinery operations can simultaneously reduce fossil fuel usage by around 58%and greenhouse gas emissions by 60%.Key takeaways The joint participation of governments,research institutions and enterprises can support the demonstration and promotion of conservation tillage from different dimensions.Conservation tillage requires the combination of agricultural machinery and technology,including variety selection,planting density,fertilization plans,plant protection plans,harvest methods,etc.It especially requires interdisciplinary experts to provide locally adapted solutions.Capacity building for farmers to change their traditional concepts of intensive farming;information sharing on the concepts,practices and effects of regenerative agriculture can facilitate farmers participation.Implementing conservation tillage practices requires a high level of machinery and equipment,and accelerated research and development of specialized equipment can facilitate greater dissemination of the practice.24.Traditional winter wheat cultivation in the Huang-Huai-Hai region involves three to five agricultural operations,including crushing straw,rotary tillage with straw incorporation,fertilization,seedbed preparation,sowing,and post-sowing compaction.25.Experimental data were collected from small-scale control fields(5 mu)in Gao County and Ren County of Hebei Province,Linying County of Henan Province,and Funan County of Anhui Province.The experimental design,data collection,and analysis were conducted by China Agricultural University.FIGURE 2.TNC staff and local farmers on a fieldtrip observing demonstrations of conservation tillage techniques for winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai regionPhoto credit:TNCReport|Nov 2023 12Action:Methane Reduction in Enteric FermentationMitigation Potential:Specific Practices:Adjusting the feed composition for ruminant animals.3%Emissions mitigation in manure managementLow-carbon transportationPlastic reduction&recyclingClean engergy use in food processingResource utilization of kitchen wasteEmissions mitigation in enteric fermentationCooking energy saving and electrificationFertilizer use reductionEmissions mitigation in rice cultivationAgricultural machinery energy-saving and electrificationCase 3:Culinary Arts for Ruminants Reducing Livestock Enteric FermentationProblemsRuminants such as beef cattle,dairy cows,and goats can emit large amounts of methane through belching.In 2020,global methane emissions from ruminant animals reached 2.8 billion tons of CO2e,accounting for 17.5%of global agri-food system GHG emissions in that year.26 ApproachCultivating salt-tolerant crops,such as sweet sorghum,on saline-alkali land,and mixing it with corn to produce silage for livestock farming improves land utilization and alleviates the shortage of forage,while also increasing forage uptake and reducing methane 26.FAO.(2022).Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems:Global,regional and country trends,20002020.Food and Argriculture Organization.https:/www.fao.org/3/cc2672en/cc2672en.pdf 13 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESemissions.This planting and feeding method is being tested and promoted on 5000 acres of saline-alkali land in northern Jiangsu Province.With the increasing demand for meat and dairy consumption,some large dairy production enterprises have set up large farms along the Jiangsu coast.Since the local saline-alkali land has low corn yield,livestock enterprises used to face a shortage of local forage.Now,by mixing sweet sorghum and corn silage,which are suitable for different salinity levels on the local coastal saline-alkali land,the silage is processed after mixed harvesting,and is then sent to the farms,where necessary nutritional supplements are added to make it into the dairy cows diet.The processed silage is highly digestible and improves milk quality.27 Data shows that the mixed planting model of sweet sorghum and silage corn generates around 3000 yuan per acre,increasing overall efficiency by 24%.This mixed diet led dairy cow milk yield to increase by 11%,with methane decreasing.28 Methane abatement is a synergistic effect of saline sorghum cultivation-a practice that has a methane abatement effect while improving the utilization of saline-alkali land and forage quality.However,it is important to note that there are challenges to utilizing sweet sorghum as a forage,such as the lower starch content compared to corn,as well as the impact of high tannin and dry matter content on feeding,which remains to be explored.29 Key takeaways Consider similar planting methods based on local geographical conditions and the scale of livestock farming.In areas with abundant saline-alkali land and a sizable scale of livestock farming,planting sweet sorghum,which is adapted to drought conditions,and making silage to replace maize silage and supplying it to local livestock farms,can generate both environmental and economic benefits.FIGURE 3.Farmers in Chifeng City,Inner Mongolia producing silagePhoto credit:Yao Zhe27.Zhang Ye.(2022).Sweet Sorghum Mixed with Silage Corn:Growing High-Quality Silage Feed on Saline-Alkali Land.Liberation Daily.http:/ same as above.29.Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences.(2019).Sweet Sorghum Plus Ruminants:A New Model for Modern Efficient and Sustainable Agriculture.http:/ Report|Nov 2023 14Mitigation Potential:Specific Practices:Adjusting irrigation management and developing climate-friendly rice varieties.7tion:Methane Reduction in Rice CultivationEmissions mitigation in manure managementLow-carbon transportationPlastic reduction&recyclingClean engergy use in food processingResource utilization of kitchen wasteEmissions mitigation in enteric fermentationCooking energy saving and electrificationFertilizer use reductionEmissions mitigation in rice cultivationAgricultural machinery energy-saving and electrificationCase 4:Climate-Friendly Rice CultivationProblemsRice,one of Chinas main staple crops,is widely cultivated in different regions.During rice cultivation,methane emissions from the decomposition of organic matter in flooded rice fields is one of the major sources of agricultural GHGs in China.ApproachSelecting suitable rice varieties for direct dry seeding involves planting directly on well-prepared land and adopting regular irrigation.This method can reduce methane emissions from flooded soil conditions and the amount of water needed to grow rice by reducing the area and duration of flooding of rice paddies.It also eliminates the need for labor-intensive activities in seedling raising and transplanting.15 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESIn the mountainous regions of Yunnan,where drought frequency and severity are increasing due to climate change,a local team dedicated to monitoring agricultural climate change has experimented with direct dry seeding of rice,exploring climate-friendly rice cultivation methods adapted to drought conditions.In cooperation with local agricultural technology extension centers and farmers,they selected high-yield,low-emission rice varieties for testing direct dry seeding.In some villages in the mountainous regions of Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces,a local approach to rice cultivation involves creating raised beds by digging trenches in well-leveled fields.Rice is then planted on top of these raised beds(known as ridges),and irrigation is conducted in the lower areas between the ridges(known as furrows).This method significantly reduces the contact time between rice fields and water,thereby decreasing methane emissions.30 In a village in Jianyang,Sichuan,farmers are adopting a combination of no-till and ridge-furrow planting for rice cultivation.They minimize soil disturbance with no-tillage,reduce the duration of flooding with furrowing,use rapeseed cake as fertilizer instead of chemical fertilizers,and employ local rapeseed husks as mulch to increase temperature and moisture.With most of the farmers interviewed for ths case study growing rice for their own consumption,the scale of rice cultivation is around 1-2 acres.Xitang,a county in Zhejiang Province,has a Low-Carbon Smart Farm Demonstration Project which uses a low-carbon rice cultivation technique developed by the China Rice Research Institute and Aliyun.The project covers an area of about 400 acres,employing various IoT sensors,high-precision positioning,and unmanned operations to manage the farmland.This includes precise irrigation and drainage for each rice field.The system automatically adjusts the water inflow and outflow based on the rice growth stage and sets corresponding water level standards.After adopting the new technological solution,the average water consumption of the farmland has been reduced from around 400 cubic meters to 230 cubic meters,and methane emission has been reduced.31 Key takeaways Farmer acceptance and adoption of climate-friendly rice field cultivation practices is key.The promotion of such practices needs to take into account and address farmers actual needs,including the impact on crop yield,labor inputs,pest and disease control,and the overall cost-benefit balance.On this basis,developing capacity building programs for interested farmers based on these considerations can encourage broader participation.Moderate-scale land consolidation will facilitate the expansion of smart farming.Implementing these technologies on large fields formed through land transfer will reduce unit costs and is more likely to generate economies of scale.30.Xia Zhijian.(2023).Methane Reduction in Rice Fields:Changes in Chinese Rice Cultivation.China Dialogue.https:/ Mei(2022).Demonstration in a 400-Mu Farmland in Jiashan Proves Smart Rice Fields Can Reduce Carbon Emissions by 20%.Zhejiang Daily.https:/ 4.Rice field with raised beds in Zhangzi Village,Tashui Town,Jianyang,SichuanPhoto credit:iGDPReport|Nov 2023 16Action:Livestock and Poultry Manure ManagementMitigation Potential:Specific Practices:Resource utilization of livestock and poultry manure.11%Emissions mitigation in manure managementLow-carbon transportationPlastic reduction&recyclingClean engergy use in food processingResource utilization of kitchen wasteEmissions mitigation in enteric fermentationCooking energy saving and electrificationFertilizer use reductionEmissions mitigation in rice cultivationAgricultural machinery energy-saving and electrificationCase 5:Manure Matters Livestock and Poultry Manure as a ResourceProblemsWith the growth in demand for animal protein due to the improvement of living standards,the utilization of waste from livestock and poultry farming has faced challenges.The outdated technology and equipment for managing manure in traditional models lead to excessive waste production on farms.This results in a large amount of agricultural waste and contributes to environmental pollution.ApproachIn Jiangxi Province,a local enterprise called Zhenghe Enviromental Protection Group has pioneered the“N2N”ecological circular agriculture model.This model focuses on an agricultural waste harmless treatment center and an organic fertilizer 17 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESproduction center.It involves the comprehensive collection and processing of manure from N upstream livestock farms,generates biogas for power generation on the production end,provides biogas for domestic use on the living end,and supplies organic fertilizer to N downstream planting fields.This innovative approach constructs a green circular industry chain,contributing to the governments efforts to address a comprehensive set of agricultural non-point source pollution issues.Zhenghe Group has implemented ecological transformation in 229 large-scale farms in Nanchang City,Jiangxi Province.They have coordinated the treatment of human and livestock manure,involving waste from rural and public toilets.The entirety of human and livestock manure is collected and transported in sealed vehicles to the processing center for anaerobic fermentation.This process generates biogas used for on-site electricity,and the resulting slurry and residue are used to produce commercial organic fertilizer for sale.The park processes 300,000 tons of manure annually,producing 5 million cubic meters of biogas,generating 10 million kilowatt-hours of electricity,and producing 20,000 tons of organic fertilizer and 1,000 tons of soil conditioner.The annual biogas production can replace 7,400 tons of standard coal,reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 18,000 tons.The use of biogas fertilizer is equivalent to reducing the application of chemical fertilizer by 10,000 tons.32 Zhenghe Group operates more than ten projects in Jiangxi Province under the N2N model.In accordance with local conditions,they use biogas slurry to help restore abandoned tailings areas by planting pennisetum.This plant serves as both fodder and a raw material for biogas production,contributing to the gradual recovery of the soil ecosystem over time.Key takeaways The comprehensive promotion of the utilization of livestock and poultry manure resources at the county level involves numerous processes and stakeholders,requiring government integration of resources and policy support.Tailor strategies to the specific industrial layout characteristics of different counties,emphasizing resource conservation,tiered utilization,and collaborative processing of agricultural and household waste to enhance facility and equipment utilization rates and resource efficiency.Shift investment patterns towards asset-light investments to alleviate financial pressures on enterprises,thereby increasing the likelihood of widespread adoption.Facilitate close collaboration between upstream and downstream livestock and poultry farming and cultivation enterprises within the county,ensuring a stable supply of manure and efficient utilization of organic fertilizers.32.Data and information are provided by interviewees.FIGURE 5.Organic fertilzer in the ecological agriculture park in Nanchang,JiangxiPhoto credit:iGDPReport|Nov 2023 18Action:Energy Efficiency and Electrification in Agricultural MachineryMitigation Potential:Specific Practices:Promoting electrification of small and medium-sized agricultural machinery6%Emissions mitigation in manure managementLow-carbon transportationPlastic reduction&recyclingClean engergy use in food processingResource utilization of kitchen wasteEmissions mitigation in enteric fermentationCooking energy saving and electrificationFertilizer use reductionEmissions mitigation in rice cultivationAgricultural machinery energy-saving and electrificationCase 6:A Preliminary Exploration of Agricultural Machinery ElectrificationProblemsThe dispersed nature of arable land and the abundance of hilly and mountainous areas in China pose challenges to the mechanization and electrification of agriculture.As green and low-carbon development and rural modernization advance in the country,the exploration of challenges in promoting the electrification of agricultural machinery will continue.ApproachElectronic crop protection drones are steadily finding applications and seeing expanded use in Chinese agriculture.33 These drones,controlled from the ground or through navigation flight control,perform tasks such as seed pollination and 33.Zhang Xiying&Hu Rui.(2018).An Overview of the Development of Agricultural Drone Technology in China with Reference to the Experiences of the United States and Japan.Practice in Foreign Economic Relations and Trade,2:26-29.19 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESthe application of pesticide and fertilizer.They can also make use of specialized equipment to monitor crop health,pest infestations,and growth.34 Crop protection drone operators in Baoqing County,Heilongjiang employ privately purchased electronic crop protection drones to offer pesticide spraying services to local farmers.The service is priced at 6-8 yuan per mu(a Chinese measurement unit for area).Since electronic drones have a limited flight time,operators also bring along generators for battery recharging.35 However,many of these generators run on diesel,which can contribute to environmental pollution.To address this issue,State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power has developed an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)charging station that is now offering recharging services for crop protection drones used in rice field operations in Lianyungang,Jiangsu.The cost of using this charging station is less than 0.1 yuan per mu,in stark contrast to the 0.3 yuan per mu cost of diesel generators.36 The charging station is a mobile energy storage pod,comprising 56 battery packs with a total capacity of 56.3 kilowatt-hours,equivalent to the capacity of 2,253 smartphone batteries.It has four ports,which can simultaneously meet the outdoor charging needs of four crop protection drones and other agricultural electric machinery.37Electronic crop protection drones are not cheap,typically costing between 50,000 to 100,000 yuan.As a result,drone manufacturers have partnered with agricultural input dealers and cooperatives to facilitate crop protection services.Drone manufacturers supply the drones,handle maintenance,and train professional crop protection drone operators.Agricultural service providers carry out crop protection operations,and pesticide distributors provide the necessary chemicals and technical guidance.38 Farmers can also access these services by booking crop protection drone services through various platforms.39Electric Tractors:In 2020,the National Agricultural Machinery Equipment Innovation Center unveiled Chinas first hydrogen-fuel-cell-powered unmanned electric tractor.40 In 2021,a tractor manufacturer within the Jiangsu Yueda Group introduced two electric tractors,the YL254ET,designed for light-duty work in greenhouses and orchards,and the YU1004,a paddy field tractor specialized for plowing,seeding,and field management in wet fields.Both electric tractors have now entered small-scale production and are in practical use.41 Another enterprise actively involved in electric tractor development is Zhulong Machinery Manufacturing Co.,Ltd.,located in Jiuquan,Gansu Province.The company has developed a series of electric machines,including electric 34.Ibid.35.ThePaper News.(2021).Northeast Chinas Heilongjiang Province:The New Generation of Farmers Operating the XAG Agricultural Drones.https:/ Jiangsu Network.(2022).State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power:Innovative Electric Power Technologies Support Agricultural and Rural Economic Development.http:/ Yan&Ding Taohong.(2022).Mobile Power Bank for Agricultural Drones in the Fields.WoSu Network.http:/ Qianqian.(2019).With Only 5%Market Penetration,DJI and XAG Take Different Paths to Explore the Blue Ocean of Agricultural UAVs.C.https:/ Xi.(2016).Farmers in Jiangsu Can Now Book Drone Pesticide Spraying Services via Alipay.Southern Daily News.https:/ Daily.(2020).5G Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Tractors Debut in Henan.http:/ Dou.(2022).National Team Introduces Hybrid Tractors,Advancing Chinese Tractors into the Electric Era.https:/ 6.An electric crop protection drone flying over a fruit plantationPhoto credit:DJI-Agras on PixabayReport|Nov 2023 20wheat seeders,electric weeders,and electric fertilizer applicators,to meet the needs of the hilly and mountainous terrain in Gansu.They have also established trial and demonstration sites in Gansu.42 The companys electric handheld soybean-corn integrated seeder,developed and produced in 2022,has also been well-received in the market.43Key takeaways Given the limits to the operational range of large electric agricultural machinery imposed by charging infrastructure and technological constraints,as well as Chinas unique challenges of land scarcity,high population density,and an aging rural population,small and medium-sized electric agricultural machinery is poised for widespread adoption in the future.The high price tag of electric agricultural machinery is a barrier to its adoption.Subsidizing the purchase or operation of electric farming machinery can help to promote its use.Achieving a moderate level of land consolidation can help reduce the per-unit cost of promoting and using electric agricultural machinery.42.China Agricultural Machinery Information Network.(2022).Analysis of the Technological Advantages of Electric Agricultural Machinery and Future Recommendations.http:/ BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESAction:Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction in Food ProcessingMitigation Potential:Specific Practices:Enhancing the efficiency of food processing5%Emissions mitigation in manure managementLow-carbon transportationPlastic reduction&recyclingClean engergy use in food processingResource utilization of kitchen wasteEmissions mitigation in enteric fermentationCooking energy saving and electrificationFertilizer use reductionEmissions mitigation in rice cultivationAgricultural machinery energy-saving and electrificationCase 7:Energy Efficiency Improvement and Energy Substitution in Food Processing and ManufacturingProblemsThe energy consumption of food processing is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions in the food system.For example,drying and shelling grains,freezing meat,pasteurizing dairy products,and refining animal and vegetable oils all require energy,and these processes are essential for many of the foods we eat.ApproachCompanies in the food processing and manufacturing sector are exploring various methods to reduce energy consumption and enhance the efficiency of resource utilization.Yihai Kerry(Kunming)Food Industry Co.,Ltd.,based in Kunming,is involved in flour processing,which consumes substantial quantities of energy during wheat cleaning and milling.In 2019,the company began building a green factory in accordance with the National Green Factory Assessment System.To reduce its reliance on traditional energy sources,the company installed distributed photovoltaic panels on the roof,taking advantage of Kunmings Report|Nov 2023 22favorable sunlight conditions.The rooftop photovoltaic panels are projected to generate 980,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity annually.The factory is planning to build a second phase of the project in 2023 with a capacity of 2 megawatts,which is expected to generate an additional 4.07 million kilowatt-hours of electricity once completed.44 In addition to solar photovoltaic power generation,the factory also procures a significant share of its electricity from green sources and uses new technologies and equipment,such as microwave lighting,to conserve energy and reduce carbon emissions.As a consequence,the facility has successfully earned recognition as a National Green Factory.45 Hubei Danone Food and Beverage Co.,Ltd.,the producer of the Mizone Vitamin drink brand,has implemented several initiatives to enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions.The company has transitioned from using natural gas boilers to generate steam to harnessing waste heat steam,investing more than 2 million yuan in refurbishing the steam pipeline to utilize waste heat from the Hanchuan Power Plant.This transition is anticipated to reduce carbon emissions by about 7,000 tons in 2021.The company has also installed a 4.1-megawatt photovoltaic system on the roof of its main factory building for electricity generation and signed a waterpower renewable energy supply contract with a local hydropower development company.This is expected to reduce carbon emissions by 13,000 tons per year.46 In addition,the company has implemented heat recovery and other eco-friendly projects during factory operation.47 These measures helped Hubei Danone Factory to be designated a National Green Factory in 2019.48 Key takeaways Policy support will play a significant role in driving energy efficiency and emissions reduction efforts in the food processing and manufacturing industry.Initiatives such as green factory certifications,with their corresponding guidelines,economic incentives,and other policy benefits,can encourage companies to adopt sustainable practices and enhance their brand image.Enhancing energy efficiency in the production and processing stages can simultaneously reduce energy consumption and operational costs for businesses.FIGURE 7.Yihai Kerry Kunming factory buildings with roof-top solar panelsPhoto credit:Yihai Kerry news center44.YiHai Kerry Group.(2023).The Zeroing Code for Carbon Neutrality Factories|Understanding ESG Reports through 6 Stories.https:/ Ecological and Environmental Bureau.(2022).Compilation of Low-Carbon Pilot Cases in Wuhan.http:/ Channel.(2022).Green ManufacturingGold and Silver Mountains:How Manufacturing Factories Achieve Carbon Neutrality.They Did It.http:/ BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESAction:Low-carbon TransportationMitigation Potential:Specific Practices:Green cold chain and electrification of light food freight7%Emissions mitigation in manure managementLow-carbon transportationPlastic reduction&recyclingClean engergy use in food processingResource utilization of kitchen wasteEmissions mitigation in enteric fermentationCooking energy saving and electrificationFertilizer use reductionEmissions mitigation in rice cultivationAgricultural machinery energy-saving and electrificationCase 8:Solving the First Mile Mobile Cold Storage in the FieldProblemsThe development of cold chain transportation for agricultural products can reduce losses and waste of freshly harvested produce that is not preserved in a timely manner.Research shows that,between 2014 and 2018,China saw approximately 350 million tons of food lost and wasted each year,accounting for 27%of total annual food production.Nearly half(45%)of this food loss and waste occurred during the harvesting and storage stages,which is significantly higher than the percentages in developed countries such as the United Kingdom(4.8%)and Japan(10.5%).49 Therefore,building cold chain infrastructure for the first mile of agricultural product production is essential.49.Xue,L.,Liu,X.,Lu,S.,Cheng,G.,Hu,Y.,Liu,J.,Dou,Z.,Cheng,S.,&Liu,G.(2021).Chinas food loss and waste embodies increasing environmental impacts.Nature Food,2(7),519-528.Report|Nov 2023 2450.Zhang Zhounan,Xu Chao.(2023).Building Refrigerators in the Fields,Doubling the Value of Vegetables.Xinhua Daily.http:/ 51.Sun Xin,Jiang Qihui.(2022).Contribution Rate of Agricultural Scientific and Technological Progress Reaches 70.9%in Jiangsu Province.Jiangsu News Network.https:/ Net.(2022).Refrigerators in the Fields!Asparagus Comes to Market Fresh Despite High Temperatures.http:/ Evening News.(2022).Huaian,Jiangsu:Mobile Cold Storage Arrives in the Fields to Keep Asparagus Fresh.https:/ Cold Storage:In 2021,Haimen,a district in Nantong City,Jiangsu Province,was designated as part of a county-wide pilot project for the cold storage and preservation of agricultural products.Following its selection,Haimen successively established 20 field cold storage units.As an illustration,Puming Village in Haimen used local investment to construct a cold storage facility with a capacity of 4,600 cubic meters for fruits and vegetables.This facility enables the early harvest and storage of locally grown produce,reducing post-harvest spoilage and preserving fruits and vegetables through refrigeration.The village collective also generates rental income from the use of these cold storage facilities.50 Mobile Cold Storage:In Lianshui County,Jiangsu Province,which contributes 30%of the countrys total asparagus production,the need for maintaining high asparagus freshness is paramount.To counteract post-harvest aging,which is exacerbated by high temperatures,the State Grid Lianshui County Power Supply Company has collaborated with agricultural and rural departments to set up four small mobile cold storage units.These units can be conveniently transported to the fields for the immediate preservation of freshly harvested asparagus.51 Asparagus,harvested in under 10 minutes,is swiftly placed into the mobile cold storage units,reducing field losses by 20%to 30%and prolonging the freshness period by approximately 3 days.52 Each mobile cold storage unit covers an area of around 10 square meters and is mounted on all-electric flatbed vehicles powered by a UPS power system.These units receive daily charging via a 200-volt power source for both the vehicles and their batteries.53 Key takeaways Policy support is crucial for the development of field cold storage.This includes both guiding documents for agricultural cold chain construction and financial support for county-wide initiatives focused on cold storage and preservation in agricultural product storage and logistics facilities.Local collaboration between various departments is also beneficial for the development of mobile cold storage.For example,the local power supply company and agricultural and rural departments in Lianshui County,Jiangsu,collaborated to support asparagus preservation efforts by constructing mobile cold storage units.FIGURE 8.Mobile cold storage facilities for asparagusPhoto credit:Luo Jiabao from Jiangsu Now25 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESCase 9:Carbon Reduction in Food Transportation Electrification of Light Freight TransportProblemsAs economies grow and living standards improve,the transportation of food over long distances between regions increases,leading to a rise in greenhouse gas emissions.Globally,food miles,or the transportation of food from production sites to consumption areas,contribute nearly 20%of total agricultural and food-systems emissions,totaling approximately 3 billion tons of CO2e.54 To mitigate emissions from food transportation,a variety of entities,ranging from large food companies to logistics firms to food delivery services,are exploring solutions.ApproachElectrification of Logistics:Nestl,a multinational food supplier,has laid out its Net-Zero Roadmap,which sets forth ambitious emissions reduction targets.By 2025,they aim to reduce emissions by 20%compared to their 2018 levels.By 2030,the goal is a 50%reduction and,by 2050,they aim to achieve a 100%reduction.To achieve these targets,one crucial strategy involves the adoption of new energy vehicles within their logistics and supply chain operations.This includes promoting more efficient transportation methods,optimizing vehicle loading,introducing biogas-powered trucks,and increasing the use of railway transport.55 Nestl has already begun deploying new energy vehicles in cities of all sizes.These vehicles are mostly replacing conventional ones for transportation distances within 150 kilometers,as heavy-duty truck battery range is currently limited.56 Prominent logistics companies,including SF Express,Cainiao,and JD Logistics,are embracing new energy vehicles in their operations.In 2018,SF Express initiated a nationwide shift toward electric logistics vehicles for last-mile deliveries,especially through the introduction of fully electric compact vans.57 By 2022,JD Logistics had rolled out a novel battery-swapping solution for its new energy vehicles.This strategic move is projected to significantly boost energy storage utilization at JD Logistics facilities by over 25%,reduce the number of deployed vehicles by more than 20%,and further enhance the carbon emissions reduction achieved per vehicle by more than 15%.In total,it aims to deliver a comprehensive carbon emissions reduction rate exceeding 35%.58 FIGURE 9.Shared battery sawpping station for two-wheel electric vehicles in BeijingPhoto credit:iGDP54.Li,M.,Jia,N.,Lenzen,M.et al.(2022).Global food-miles account for nearly 20%of total food-systems emissions.Nature Food(3),445453.55.Nestle Group.(2020).Accelerate,Transform,Regenerate:Nestles Net Zero Carbon Emission Roadmap.https:/ Yi.(2023).Nestle:Sustainable Supply Chain Practices for the Future.https:/ Network Radio and Television Station.(2020).KSTAR Partners with SF Express to Create a New Benchmark for Green Urban Distribution.China Daily.https:/ Logistics First Batch of Battery-Swapping Electric Cars Put into Operation,Plans to Deploy 1,000 Battery-Swapping Light Trucks by the End of the Year.Sina Technology.https:/ 2023 26In addition,nearly all delivery riders in urban areas have switched to two-wheel electric vehicles for order deliveries.However,the limited battery range of these electric scooters has encouraged energy and internet companies to promote battery swapping services.For instance,Alibabas Xiaoha Battery Swapping has set up battery swapping stations in several cities across the nation.Delivery riders can access these stations using the Xiaoha Battery Swapping mini-program within the Ha Luo app or Alipay to conveniently scan and exchange batteries.According to data published by Xiaoha Battery Swapping,its service in Shenzhen has collectively recorded over 120 million kilometers ridden using the battery-swapping method,resulting in emissions reductions equivalent to 6,000 tons.59Food suppliers,logistics firms,and internet companies are exploring and experimenting with the electrification of food transportation.However,it is important to note that success in achieving a significant reduction in carbon emissions depends on the availability of clean energy.Key takeaways The widespread adoption of new energy vehicles provides a foundation for the electrification of food transportation,especially in short-distance intercity delivery.Future advancements in heavy-duty electric freight vehicles and battery storage could drive further electrification in long-distance cargo transport.Electric bicycles lack uniformity in battery size and interface standards,which can cause problems with interoperability in battery swapping systems.Therefore,the implementation of unified technical standards60 for electric bicycle battery swapping is essential for the successful promotion of battery sharing services.59.Dai Xiaorong.(2022).Shenzhen Releases the First Report on the New Trend of Two-Wheel Electric Shared Energy:Citizens Replace Charging,Reducing Carbon Emissions by Nearly 6,000 Tons.Shenzhen Special Zone Daily.https:/ Haijun.(2023).Smart Battery Swap Cabinets:Standards Should Not Fall Behind.Minseng Weekly.http:/ BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESMitigation Potential:3tion:Plastics Reduction and RecyclingSpecific Practices:Reducing food waste,simplifying packaging,and improving recycling resourcesEmissions mitigation in manure managementLow-carbon transportationPlastic reduction&recyclingClean engergy use in food processingResource utilization of kitchen wasteEmissions mitigation in enteric fermentationCooking energy saving and electrificationFertilizer use reductionEmissions mitigation in rice cultivationAgricultural machinery energy-saving and electrificationCase 10:A New Dawn for Surplus Food Innovating Business Practices to Reduce Food WasteProblemsWithin the food industry,there is a concept of food having a shelf life,and“near-expired”products are items that are approaching their expiry date but have not yet passed it.In principle,food is still of good quality as long as it is within its shelf life.However,selling near-expired food still remains a challenge in society.Food waste not only represents a loss of food;it also signals that resources(i.e.water,soil,and energy)are being inefficiently used to produce such food.Many companies and supermarkets are increasingly adopting sustainable consumption practices,and actively reducing food waste by minimizing the disposal of near-expired food.ApproachSelling Near-Expired Food:There have been news reports that HotMaxx served over 13 million customers in 2021 across its 400 stores nationwide.It circulated over 300 million items,and directly reduced food waste by over 70,000 tons,cutting approximately 140,000 tons Report|Nov 2023 2861.Qilu Evening News.(2022).HotMaxx Leads Low-Carbon Consumption,Creating a Beautiful Life.https:/ Evening News.(2022).HotMaxxs Low-Carbon Activities,Star Series Green Life.https:/ Magic Bags,Green,Low-Carbon,and Cost-Effective!https:/ Longfei.(2023).Why Are Leftover Box Meals Popular Among Young People?Whats Inside?China News Network.http:/ Huiying.(2022).Why Dont Young People Like Near-Expired Food Anymore?DoNews.https:/ Xiaoyue.(2023).Leftover Box Opens Up New Ideas for Combating Food Waste.China Consumer News.https:/ carbon emissions.61 In August and September 2022,HotMaxx conducted its Zero Food Waste campaign as part of a Waste-Free Month initiative.According to HotMaxx data,some 100,000 people participated both online and offline in this campaign.They saved over 122 tons of food from being wasted,and this lead to a reduction of approximately 243.8 tons of greenhouse gas emissions.62 In 2021,China launched a pioneering scheme called the Food-Saving Magic Bag to curb food waste.It connected businesses and consumers,and provided solutions for handling surplus food products.The Food-Saving Magic Bag involved baked goods,light meals,and a limited selection of fruits,vegetables,and beverages.It was carried out in over 30 cities nationwide and has partnered with more than 200 food brands.63 Approximately 4,000 stores nationwide have now joined the Food-Saving Magic Bag scheme,and on average,they collectively reduce food waste by five tons daily.That equates to around 12.5 tons of reduced carbon emissions.64 Many supermarkets and retail stores have adopted the practice of offering discounts on near-expired food.In October 2021,Hema Fresh opened a Fresh Outlet store in Shanghai,which was primarily focused on offering perishable items and near-expired food products.Suning subsequently established its first discount supermarket in Maanshan,and has plans to expand into Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and Shanghai in the near future.65 According to iiMedia Research,the close-to-expiry goods market is poised to grow from a niche demand into a booming industry.66 However,the emerging market for near-expired food also necessitates strict food safety standards and regulatory oversight.Key takeaways Social media and online platforms are essential channels for promoting close-to-expiration foods.By leveraging these platforms effectively,businesses can significantly boost their consumer engagement and promote thriftiness.Some blind-box food items,like in-house packaged bread,might lack ingredient details and production dates,which could pose certain food safety concerns.Clear policies and regulations are needed to address this issue.Traditional supermarkets and food retailers often have sections dedicated to near-expiration products.However,there are often insufficient communication channels on this for consumers.Retailers should consider providing information about their near-expiration foods,or create a section for it on their online platforms to better engage with customers.FIGURE 10.Main page of“Food-Saving Magic Bag”mini program and a detailed page about food productsPhoto credit:iGDP29 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIES67.Ellen MacArthur Foundation,Tsinghua University.(2022).Strategic Research Report on the Circular Economy Development of Chinas Plastic Packaging Industry.https:/ of the Scale of Chinas Takeout Users,Market Size,and Major Platforms in 2022.https:/ Report on the Economic and Environmental Benefits of Takeout Circular Lunch Boxes.http:/ Fangzhou,Huang Jiayu.(2022).The Challenge of Reducing Plastic in Takeout:Discoveries in 35 Million Takeout Orders.Southern Weekend.https:/ 11:Reducing Food Packaging to Cut Down on PlasticsProblemsPlastic is commonly used in food packaging and takeaway containers because it is lightweight and waterproof.However,the plastic economy is currently very linear:plastic is produced,used,and then disposed of.Ninety-five percent of the value of plastic packaging is wasted worldwide,meaning annual economic losses of US$800-1,200 billion.67 Significant amounts of greenhouse gases are also emitted during each stage of the plastic lifecycle:from extracting and transporting fossil fuels to refining and producing plastic,to managing and disposing of plastic waste.ApproachReducing Plastic Sources:According to the Qinghe Circular Economy and Carbon Neutrality Research Institute,in 2022,Mengniu introduced“Light Bottle Youyi C”materials(see Figure 3).These reduced the weight of the companys bottles from 7g to 6.5g,and meant an annual reduction of 270 tons of plastic.Mengniu also got rid of bottle labels;instead,they have engraved product information on its bottle,which reduced plastic by a further 523.8 tons per year.The thickness of the aluminum foil seals on bottles was also reduced from 40um to 30um,meaning 21.6 tons of aluminum foil were saved annually.Additionally,the technology used to engrave product information directly onto bottles,instead of using labels,meant that steam consumption was reduced by 85 tons per year.As a result of innovative packaging,each pack of Youyi C(containing five bottles,each 100g)meant reduced carbon emissions of 84.31g of CO2e per pack,or 46.62%compared to the original packaging.By the end of 2021,China had 544 million online users of food delivery services.68 In order to address the significant amount of single-use plastics being wasted,a company named Shuangti developed a dedicated online food delivery platform for both on-and off-campus use.Shuangti collects,cleans,and reuses food containers,preventing the mass-production of disposable meal boxes.As of December 2021,Shuangtis reusable meal boxes have been used 63 times on average.Every time a reusable meal box is used,91g of CO2e emissions are reduced,and 2 terajoules of primary energy resources are saved.69 Shuangti estimates that every reusable meal box can be used at least 150 times.70FIGURE 11.A comparison between PS Youyi C packaging and PP Light Bottle Youyi C packaging(left),along with a promotional poster for“Light Bottle Youyi C”Photo credit:Institute of Carbon Neutrality and Circular EconomyReport|Nov 2023 30Key takeaways Businesses should strive to minimize unnecessary packaging and explore designs that support reusability.They should ensure that packaging materials and designs are recyclable.Local governments could encourage more coordination and standardization along the supply chain.They could promote ecological design principles,and establish certification and labeling systems for recyclable packaging.These measures could help more companies adopt low-carbon practices.Collecting plastic waste from consumers is a complex challenge due to their widespread distribution,and the diverse range of materials used in plastic packaging.It is also challenging to collect and sort plastic waste.Reusable food containers are suitable options for closed environments e.g.campuses,business parks,hospitals,and government facilities,but there are logistical challenges extending their use to more open environments such as residential areas.31 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESMitigation Potential:13tion:Energy-Efficiency and Electrification in Cooking Specific Practices:Promoting electrification in cookingEmissions mitigation in manure managementLow-carbon transportationPlastic reduction&recyclingClean engergy use in food processingResource utilization of kitchen wasteEmissions mitigation in enteric fermentationCooking energy saving and electrificationFertilizer use reductionEmissions mitigation in rice cultivationAgricultural machinery energy-saving and electrificationCase 12:Electrification Empowers Low-Carbon and Safe Chinese CookingProblemsCarbon emissions linked to food consumption can be subdivided into three parts:direct food carbon emissions,indirect carbon emissions from households,and indirect carbon emissions from industry.Direct food carbon emissions refer to the carbon emissions from the food itself,while indirect carbon emissions from households refer to the carbon emissions from cooking and storing food.Indirect carbon emissions from industry refer to the carbon emissions generated by different links in the food consumption process,such as production,processing,and distribution,as well as transfers between different industries.Research shows that per capita indirect carbon emissions in 30 provinces(including autonomous regions,and centrally-administered municipalities)in China have been rising from 1990 to 2018.71 71.Huang Heping,Li Yaili&Yang Siling.(2021)Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Emissions from ood Consumption of Urban Residents in China.Chinese Journal of Environmental Management,13(1),112-120.Report|Nov 2023 32ApproachElectrification in Dining Establishments:As more urban residents choose to dine out,energy consumption for cooking has shifted from residential areas to public buildings.72 Therefore,promoting cooking electrification in dining establishments and other businesses is a more effective way to reduce emissions.In June 2021,Jiangsu Province released the first provincial-level policy supporting the switch from bottled gas to electricity for dining establishments.By the end of 2021,Jiangsu had established 4,023 commercial-grade all-electric kitchens across various cities and counties in the province.These kitchens can significantly improve kitchen safety and reduce energy costs by 20%to 45%.On average,they can reduce carbon emissions by over 30%.73 Residential Electrification:A study by the Xiamen Construction Bureau found that,for residential units smaller than 168 square meters,the construction cost and annual operating cost of electric stoves are lower than those of gas stoves.At present,Xiamen has already implemented residential building electrification at the Haicang Ecological Garden residential project.This project consists of high-rise residential buildings and,due to fire safety concerns,traditional natural gas service is not provided to households.Instead,the developer has equipped each household with electric induction stoves,achieving a fully electrified kitchen.By using clean electrical energy,electric cooking appliances reduce carbon emissions to zero.74Key takeaways The slow transition to electrical cooking is partly due to the long-standing tradition of cooking over an open flame.Nevertheless,modern kitchen appliances are fully capable of satisfying traditional cooking requirements,necessitating increased promotion and awareness.Research shows75 that relevant policies and funding incentives76 are essential for driving the adoption of electrification in public buildings,especially for cooking purposes.72.Hao Bin,Li Yemao,Feng Wei,Xu Xiaolong,Peng Chen,Lu Yuanyuan,Li Yutong,Pan Wenyu,&Kang Jing.(2020).Summary of the Report on the Urban Energy Transition Path Driven by Building Electrification.Energy Foundation(China)&Shenzhen Institute of Building Science Co.,Ltd.73.Dong Ying,Sun Mengru.(2022).Jiangsu Promotes Green Transformation of Back Kitchens with Over 4000 All-Electric Kitchens.Yangzi Evening News.https:/ Shuqi.(2021).Continuing to Select Newly Built Residential Areas as Pilot Projects for Electrification,Xiamen Will Have More Communities Cooking and Stir-Frying with Electricity.Xiamen Daily.http:/ Jin,Huang Peikun,Zhou Yan,et al.(2022).Research Report on Low-Carbon Action Guidelines for Catering Businesses.China Environmental Protection Foundation.http:/ Xixi.(2021).All-Electric Kitchen:The Green and Low-Carbon New Trend in the Rise of the Jiangsu Catering Industry.Jiangnan Times.http:/ 12.Electrified kitchen in a primary school in Jianhu county,Jiangsu ProvincePhoto credit:Jianghu county peoples government33 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESMitigation Potential:5%Emissions mitigation in manure managementLow-carbon transportationPlastic reduction&recyclingClean engergy use in food processingResource utilization of kitchen wasteEmissions mitigation in enteric fermentationCooking energy saving and electrificationFertilizer use reductionEmissions mitigation in rice cultivationAgricultural machinery energy-saving and electrificationAction:Resource Utilization of Kitchen WasteSpecific Practices:Promoting waste sorting and kitchen waste resource utilization Case 13:Leftover Food A Hot Commodity in Terms of Power and CompostProblemsAs China has urbanized and industrialized,greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste systems have increased steadily,harming the environment.In 2020,the volume of urban waste collected in China reached 235 million tons,77 an increase of nearly 49%since 2010.Kitchen waste makes up a significant portion of urban waste in China.More effective kitchen waste management can mean more valuable products,more fuel,and more energy.ApproachUtilizing Kitchen Waste Resources:In December 2018,the city of Xian in Shaanxi Province launched the first phase of a project to harmlessly treat and utilize 77.Report|Nov 2023 34kitchen waste.Xian established a facility that became the citys first kitchen waste processing plant.It had capacity to handle 200 tons of kitchen waste and 20 tons of used cooking oil per day.The project was built,owned,and operated(BOO)under a 30-year franchise period.The total investment of the project was 192 million yuan.Under the franchise agreement,the local government paid for kitchen waste collection and set a processing fee at 274 yuan per ton.Since its trial phase,this project has consistently been operational,processing more than 200 tons of kitchen waste per day;some days this figure exceeds 250 tons.More than 80,000 tons of kitchen waste are processed in total per year.Operational data linked to the project indicates that one ton of kitchen waste can produce about 80 cubic meters of biogas,50 kilograms of waste cooking oil,or generate 160 kWh of electricity.Plans are in place to integrate the electricity generated into the grid;it will also be used to further the projects own needs.The effluent generated meets the discharge standards for Class II water bodies in the Yellow River Basin,and so once it is processed,solid residue will be transported to a landfill for disposal.The kitchen waste treatment project in Taiyuan,Shanxi Province,has overall capacity to treat 500 tons per day and it was constructed in two phases.The first phase,which began trial operations in 2017,has a kitchen waste processing capacity of 200 tons per day.It covers the six urban districts of Taiyuan and Qingxu County.This project was built,operated,and transferred(BOT)under a 30-year franchise period.The total invested in the project was 311 million yuan.Under the franchise agreement,the local government pays a fee of 309 yuan per ton to collect and process kitchen waste.This project is now operating smoothly,and over 200 tons of kitchen waste are processed per day.More than six million cubic meters of biogas are produced annually,and there are plans to purify this and turn it into biomethane.Additionally,measures to separate oil and water result in a significant amount of crude oil as a primary byproduct.The digestate generated from kitchen waste is transported to a wastewater treatment plant,while residue is taken to an on-site incineration plant within the park,meaning transportation costs are effectively reduced.Key takeaways Effective planning and coordination are essential when it comes to kitchen waste treatment projects.Money can be saved on transportation,meaning projects are more economically viable.Kitchen waste has a complex composition;after processing,it contains high concentrations of organic contaminants,grease,and inorganic salts.The resulting digestate is typically transported to wastewater treatment facilities.However,projects are advised to explore different chemical agents that might mean more efficient treatment outcomes.Different technologies might be required to treat kitchen waste.Local authorities should consider the quality of waste materials,and the technical and economic feasibility when treating them.They should also factor in any unique circumstances when selecting the most suitable treatment methods.FIGURE 13.Kitchen waste treatment equipment in Xian city,Shaanxi ProvincePhoto credit:iGDP35 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIESAction:Dietary Shift and Behavioral ChangeMitigation Potential:Specific Practices:Promoting environmentally-friendly dietary habits*Case 14:Advocating Environmentally-Friendly Diets in the Pearl River Delta Region How Restaurant Orders Can Reduce Food EmissionsProblemsEncouraging the adjustment of consumer diets is an important and effective way of reducing emissions.78 There is potential to transform dietary structures,reduce food waste,and enhance food education,all of which are effective intervention strategies.A scientific approach could be applied;the carbon emissions associated with different food items(as part of their lifecycle)could be calculated,and then displayed on a menu.This would not only raise awareness about the environmental impact of consumers dietary choices,it would also help individuals who prefer low-carbon consumption to make informed decisions.Research79 has shown that frequent reminders can influence people to choose more environmentally-friendly consumption options.ApproachClimate Menu:The PDT Food Collective(PDT)is an organization dedicated to promoting the transition to sustainable food systems.The PDT has conducted field visits and research at 20 restaurants in the Pearl River Delta region.It has assessed the operational status of these establishments,their understandings of sustainable dining,and the feasibility of taking action.PDT is collaborating with five restaurants that have already made attempts to switch towards more sustainable dining.PDT has selected one item off the menu at each restaurant,and has re-engineered it to make it more environmentally-friendly.Methods have included increasing the proportion of vegetables over meat(e.g.substituting leeks for pork in Hakka Stuffed Tofu),using locally sourced ingredients(e.g.locally-caught fish instead of high-carbon meats),and reducing the amount of heavily processed foods by substituting wholegrains for refined ones.PDT assessed relevant carbon emissions data before and after transforming these dishes and found that emissions were reduced 15%to 88%.During the Guangdong Dining,Low Carbon campaign on Earth Day,3,061 servings of these revamped dishes were sold.These dishes resulted in a reduction of 2964 kg of CO2e.80In order to promote the guiding principles of Environmentally-Friendly Dining to Pearl River Delta consumers,PDT introduced professional terminology into texts that resonated with the local culture of the region.For example,it used the promotional slogan 不时不食(“eat in season”or“seasonal eating”)to encourage consumers to explore seasonal local ingredients.The slogan helped strengthen the connection between local culture and low-carbon food.78.Valentine Graveleau.(2022).On the menu at a UK restaurant:carbon footprint.https:/phys.org/news/2022-08-menu-uk-restaurant-carbon-footprint.html79.Isabelle Gerretsen.(2022).The menu tweaks that lower diners emissions.https:/ and information were provided by the interviewees.Report|Nov 2023 36FIGURE 15.Posters designed by PDT to promote the guiding principles of Environmentally-Friendly Dining to Pearl River Delta consumersPhoto credit:PDTPDTs“foodservice transformation program,”which was originally a pilot,assessed the reasons the industry might be motivated to change,and looked at companies business feasibility to do so,and their brand images.The PDT also collaborated with media to promote businesses and green dishes within the foodservice alliance.These activities helped improve businesses understanding of environmentally-friendly dining and raised awareness of the benefits of participating in an environmental scheme.Some restaurants have responded by saying:When we update our menus now,we consider carbon emissions,and choose more seasonal ingredients.Key takeaways When proposing solutions,its crucial to listen to businesses feedback,consider the cost-effectiveness of carbon reduction measures,and assess how consumers might respond so as to ensure their sustainability in the business context.Recognize and play to local experiences and wisdom.For restaurant and consumer education,highlight and preserve existing sustainable culinary traditions and practices,and avoiding simply importing foreign concepts.Empower frontline staff in the food industry,including chefs,waitressing staff,and restaurant managers.Place a strong emphasis on cultivating a mindset shift among service personnel who directly interact with consumers.Given Chinas vast geography and varying restaurant locations,brand identities,and customer demographics,the increased interest in sustainable dining opens the door for more non-profit organizations and associations to participate.They can offer tailored guidance to restaurants as they transform.Report|Nov 2023 3738 BUILDING SUSTAINABILITY INTO CHINAS AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM FOURTEEN CASE STUDIES6-2-62,Jianguomenwai Diplomatic Residence Compound,1 Xiushui Street,Chaoyang District,Beijing,100600 P.R.ChinaEmail:Tel:86-10-8532-3096ABOUT iGDPThe Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress(iGDP)is an international non-profit think tank focusing on green and low-carbon development with offices in China and Europe.Established in Beijing in 2014,iGDP is dedicated to supporting Chinas green and low-carbon practices,contributing to the global effort to address climate change,and providing decision-makers,investors and local communities with forward-thinking solutions.Through interdisciplinary,systematic,and empirical policy research,iGDP promotes robust energy and climate solutions with high implementation and investment feasibility.iGDP works with its partners to promote a zero emissions future and tell the story of Chinas green and low-carbon
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2023 State of the Industry ReportPlant-based meat,seafood,eggs,anddairyTable of contentsEditors note.4About the Good Food Institute.7Executive summary.9Commercial landscape.9Sales.10Investments.10Science and technology.10Government and regulation.10Commercial landscape.14Facilities.14Company landscape.16Involvement by diversified companies.18Partnerships.19Product launches.21Activity in blended meat.24Consumer insights.26Conventional meat consumption,reduction,and substitution.26Consumer awareness and use.29Consumer motivations.31Sales.36U.S.retail sales overview.36Categories.38U.S.consumer dynamics and research.40Global retail sales overview.41U.S.foodservice sales overview.44Investments.49Liquidity events.55Other financing.55Science and technology.58Research across the technology value chain.59Environmental and social impact.67Health and nutrition.69Scientific ecosystem growth.70Government and regulation.74Global public funding.74Regulation by country/region.76Global cooperation and coordination.80Outlook.832024 outlook.83Long-term outlook.84External projections.85Acknowledgements.922023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy2Editors noteOver the past decade,the global plant-based foodmarket has grown substantially.This has beenlargely driven by companies launching products thatappeal to mainstream consumers by mimicking thetaste,texture,and functionality of conventionalanimal products.In 2023,new distribution aroundthe world led to pockets of regional sales growth,particularly in markets where plant-based categoriesare still emerging.Yet a number of challengespersisted in more mature markets,including theUnited States,where retail dollar and unit sales forplant-based foods declined from 2022.In the United States,plant-based price increasescoincided with elevated inflation and tightenedconsumer budgets,and purchase dynamicsindicated weakening consumer engagement in manyplant-based categories.Plant-based meat salesdeclined more sharply than plant-based food salesoverall,and surveys of lapsed consumers showedthat plant-based meat products are largely notmeeting consumer expectations,particularly inregard to taste,texture,and price.Fundingconstraints,scaling complexities,and a rise inmisinformation and disinformation all posedadditional obstacles to growth.Yet U.S.consumers say theyd be more willing to eatplant-based meat if it tasted better,became moreaffordable,and overall provided a clear value.Therealso remain strong consumer tailwinds supporting ashift toward increasing consumption of plant-basedfoods.None of the challenges facing plant-basedfoods are insurmountable,but they do requiresignificant increases in government and privatesector support,with an eye toward meetingconsumer needs.Companies can innovate toimprove the eating experience of their products andoptimize production to deliver better affordability.The industry can collaborate to better communicatethe benefits of plant-based meat and the uniquevalue of their products to consumers.The past year saw progress made up and down thesupply chain.New products with improved healthpropositions hit the shelves.Large companiesreleased plant-based alternatives to popularbranded products,leveraging those brands equities.Research continued to optimize plant proteincultivation,take advantage of agriculturalby-products,and create processes and ingredientsthat more closely match the sensory attributes ofconventional meat,seafood,egg,and dairy products.Despite tough market conditions,the stark realities ofour food system remain:Global meat consumption isprojected to rise significantly by 2050,and animalagriculture alone accounts for between 11 and 20percent of greenhouse gas emissions.Taken together,these projections point to the urgent need for thekinds of solutions provided by alternative proteins.If the world is to achieve our climate,biodiversity,public health,and food security goals,reimagining theway meat is made will be as essential as the globaltransition to renewable energy.When compared toconventional meat,alternative proteins dramaticallyreduce emissions,feed more people with fewerresources,reduce pandemic and antibiotic-resistancerisks,and free up lands and waters around the worldfor restoration and recovery.GFIs annual State of the Industry Reports equipfood system stakeholders with an in-depthunderstanding of the alternative protein market andits challenges and opportunities.These reports alsoserve as a global call to action:Alternative proteins are agriculturalinnovations that,with proper levelsof government and private support,will help ensure planetary and publichealth,transforming our global foodsystem for the better.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy3Plant-based meat is a powerful tool for tackling suchchallenges.At scale,alternative proteins includingplant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy couldenable a shift toward less resource-intensive ways ofproducing protein.But first,the industry mustovercome challenges like distorted nutritionnarratives and premium pricing compared toconventional meat,and must continue to improvetaste and sensory attributes so that plant-basedproducts more closely resemble meat.The nextgeneration of consumers is signaling enthusiasm forplant-based meat as a solution to food made withfewer resources and less harm to the environment.With additional funding and support,the industry ispoised to satisfy that growing interest.This report details the innovations and developmentsthat moved the field forward in 2023.But there is stillmuch to be done.As a nonprofit and internationalnetwork of organizations,GFI is acceleratingalternative protein innovation and bringing morepeople into the field.Policymakers and governments,scientists and students,industry leaders and globalcitizens can all ensure that the sector ofnature-positive proteins continues to progress,offering the world a far more sustainable food future.With gratitude and deep respect to all those on thisjourney,we invite you to dig deep into this 2023State of the Industry Report.Best,Caroline BushnellSVP of Corporate EngagementLiz Specht,PhDSVP of Science and TechnologyJessica AlmySVP of Policy andGovernment Relations2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy4About GFIs State of the Industry Report seriesGFIs State of the Industry Report series serves as our annual alternative protein sector deep-dive.Theseries compiles business developments,key technologies,policy updates,and scientific breakthroughsfrom around the world that are advancing the entire field.This years reports include:Cultivated meat and seafoodPlant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairyFermentation:Meat,seafood,eggs,and dairyGlobal policy:Public support,regulation,and labelingThe Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy report synthesizes 2023 updates across the globalindustry focused on plant-based alternatives to conventional animal products.For a primer on the latestscience and technological developments of plant-based alternative proteins,please visit GFIs science ofplant-based meat deep dive page.Symbols to look forThroughout the 2023 State of the Industry Report series,look for symbols highlighting how developments in thepast year advanced the alternative protein sector in the areas of health and nutrition,sustainability,andpath-to-market progress.Dig deeper and Opportunity icons are calls to action for researchers,investors,andothers seeking to learn more and advance the field.HealthSustainabilityOpportunityPath-to-marketDig deeperPlease note that The Good Food Institute is not a licensed investment or financial advisor,and nothing in this reportis intended or should be construed as investment advice.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy5About the Good Food InstituteAs a nonprofit think tank and international network of organizations powered by philanthropy,GFI works alongsidescientists,businesses,and policymakers to make alternative proteins as delicious,affordable,and accessible asconventional meat.In Asia Pacific,Brazil,Europe,India,Israel,and the United States,our teams are mobilizingthe international community to use markets and technology to replace harmful practices with ones that are betterfor the climate and biodiversity,food security,and global health.We focus on three programmatic priorities:1.Cultivating a strong scientific ecosystemGFIs science and technology teams map out the most neglected areas that will allow alternativeproteins to compete on taste and price.We produce open-access analyses and resources,educate andconnect the next generation of scientists and entrepreneurs,and fund research that benefits alternativeprotein development across the sector.2.Influencing policy and securing government investmentGFIs policy teams ensure that alternative proteins are a part of the policy discussion around climatechange mitigation and global health.In every region where we have a presence,we advocate forgovernment investment in alternative proteins and educate regulators on novel proteins such ascultivated meat.3.Supporting industry to advance alternative proteinsGFIs corporate teams are replicating past market transformations and partnering with companies andinvestors across the globe to drive investment,accelerate innovation,and scale the supply chainallfaster than market forces alone would allow.Stay connectedNewsletters|GFIs suite of expertly curated newsletters puts timely news,insights,and opportunities rightin your inbox.Check out gfi.org/newsletters to find the ones most suitable for your interests.Monthly seminar series|Each month,we host online seminars with leading experts from around the world:The Business of Alt Protein series is geared toward a commercially focused audience on topics related tostarting and scaling a good food business.The Science of Alt Protein series addresses a technical audienceand focuses on cutting-edge research developments that enable alternative protein innovation.This State of the Industry Report series,as well as all of GFIs open-access insights and data,are made possible bygifts and grants from our global community of donors.If you are interested in learning more about giving to GFI,please visit here or contact philanthropygfi.org.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy6Executive summaryExecutive summaryThe plant-based meat,seafood,egg,and dairysectors experienced both headwinds and tailwinds in2023.While some regions,especially those withemerging plant-based markets,saw growth inproduct distribution,U.S.sales of plant-based foodsdeclined as inflation continued and many consumerssignaled that products werent yet meeting theirexpectations on taste,texture,and affordability.Governments such as Canada,Denmark,and Germanyincreasingly committed significant public funding toplant-based research,while private investment into thesector fellalbeit at a slower rate than global venturefunding across all sectors.Plant-based meat products,on average,continued to be sold at significant pricepremiums compared to conventional meat,andsensory gaps to conventional meat remained.All thewhile,consumersespecially in the United States andEuropecontended with high interest rates andelevated inflation,limiting consumers willingness tospend on higher-priced protein products.Amid these conditions,the industry continued tomature.New scientific and technical groundworkwas laid.Companies conducted analyses that provedout sustainability benefits of plant-based products.Governments and investors financed researchersand companies.And manufacturers introduced newproducts,developed strategic partnerships,and builtnew production facilities.However,although pocketsof progress across categories and geographies areclear,plant-based meat is facing significantchallenges.The sector needs more progress on priceparity,taste parity,manufacturing capacity,andconsumer understanding,especially in nutrition,if itis to deliver on its promise of serving as acommonplace center-of-plate protein formainstream consumers.Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy,part ofour 2023 State of the Industry Report series,takes afield-wide,global view of the progress made over thepast year.Commercial landscapeNew products and categoriesHundreds of new plant-based meat,seafood,egg,and dairy products hit retail shelves in the U.S.market in 2023,including plant-based steak,sushi,boiled eggs,Wagyu-style beef,ribs,and more.Retail and foodservice trendsLarge companies continued to engage in thesector,including the release of plant-basedversions of popular branded products likeTyson plant-based nuggets,Nestlplant-based mince meat and plant-basedHagen-Dazs products,and Kraft Heinzplant-based cheese slices and a plant-basedversion of Kraft Mac&Cheese product.Plant-based meat continued to launch on menusat major chains globally including Burger King inScandinavia,Subway in Europe,Taco Bell in theUnited Kingdom,and Starbucks in Malaysia.Impossible Foods launched a lower-fat versionof their signature plant-based beef,ImpossibleBeef Lite,with 75 percent less saturated fat.New partnershipsCompanies continued to collaborate to develop newproducts,scale production,and leveragemainstream distribution channels.Notable strategicpartnerships in 2023 included Modern Plant-BasedFoods and Carbone Restaurant Group developingplant-based pizzas;JUST Egg and Cheryls Cookiesdeveloping plant-based cookies;and MorningStarFarms and Pringles developing a new line ofplant-based chicken fingers.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy8Manufacturing capacityContinuing to expand manufacturing capacity andfurther develop supply chain infrastructure will becritical to the success of plant-based proteins.Newfacilities opened in 2023,including SunOptas285,000-square-foot facility in Texas,which willmanufacture plant-based milk and creamer.Manymore facilities broke ground,such as one for Germanplant-based food company Planteneers in Illinois,orwere announced,such as agricultural companyBunge committing$550 million to build a newfacility in Indiana.SalesTotal U.S.retail plant-based food dollar sales were$8.1 billion in 2023,a slight decline from$8.2 billionin 2022.Plant-based meat and seafood salesdeclined,which indicates that opportunities exist tobetter meet consumer needs on key productcharacteristics like taste and price.Eighty-one percent of households thatpurchased plant-based foods in 2023 purchasedmore than once throughout the year.Plant-based milk held nearly 15 percent marketshare of total milk dollar sales in 2023.Across the majority of plant-based categories,repeat purchase rates held relatively steady yearover year.InvestmentsAccording to GFIs analysis of data from the Net ZeroInsights platform,plant-based meat,seafood,egg,and dairy companies raised$907.7 million in 2023(representing 11 percent of all-time investment),bringing total private investments in the sector to$8.5 billion.The number of unique investors inplant-based companies grew by 10 percent to morethan 1,293 unique investors.Science and technologyNew sources of plant-based ingredients,new waysto cultivate these plants,and novel processes tooptimize taste,texture,and nutrition were keytechnological themes driving research forplant-based foods in 2023.Advances were made iningredient development,from new animal-free fatsand emulsifiers to novel aquatic,leguminous,andupcycled protein sources.Improved scalability oftraditional texturization methods like extrusion wasachieved,and promising newer bottom-up methodslike fiber spinning and a patent-pending“process-controlled microstructure design”expanded available technologies for scalableplant-protein texturization.In 2023,Beyond Meatreleased their second ISO-reviewed Life CycleAssessment(LCA)which showed the Beyond Burger3.0 patty generates 90 percent fewer greenhousegas emissions,uses 97 percent less water and land,and requires 37 percent less non-renewable energythan an average conventional beef patty.Government and regulationMilestones in 2023 government support ofplant-based alternative proteins spanned the globe.In the Americas,Canada continued its investmentleadership with CAD 150 million($110 million)inpublic funding that will support plant-based proteinmarket growth,while in Europe,the United Kingdomand Germany both announced large commitments toalternative protein R&D and commercialization.Government support of alternative protein startupsand product development was announced in Brazil,Japan,Singapore,South Korea,and more.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy9Table 1:Invested capital in plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairyCategory202320062023HighlightsTotal investedcapital$908MM$8.5B2023 invested capital represented 11%of all-timeinvestment.Invested capitaldeal count1251,2112023s largest investment was the$300 millionconvertible note raised by Oatly.Uniqueinvestors1871,293The number of all-time unique investors grew by10%in 2023.Liquidity eventcapital$389MM$25.7BAbove Food,a plant-based ingredient and endproducts company,announced plans to merge withBite Acquisition Corp.,a publicly traded specialpurpose acquisition company(or SPAC).Above Foodwas valued at$319 million in the announced deal.Source:GFI analysis of data obtained from Net Zero Insights platform2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy10Figure 1:Timeline of key plant-based updates in 20232023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy11CommerciallandscapeCommercial landscapeOverviewThe global plant-based meat,seafood,egg,and dairyindustry continued to grow and evolve in 2023.Euromonitors estimate for the total global retailsales of plant-based meat,seafood,milk,yogurt,icecream,and cheese was$29 billion in 2023(Euromonitor does not report on plant-based eggs).Despite a 34-percent increase over 2019 sales($21.6 billion),the global market for alternativeproteins remains small compared to conventionalanimal products.Advancements in productinnovation,affordability,accessibility,and more areneeded to grow this industry.New activity in 2023included the announcement and/or completion ofnew facilities,the launch of new products,and theformation of strategic partnerships.Some key trendsthat emerged include:Large food and meat companies continued toengage in the sector including Tyson,Nestle,and Kraft Heinz.Products continued to be added to menus atmajor chains such as Burger King,Subway,Taco Bell,and Starbucks.Companies expanded distribution into newmarkets and new channels such asnoncommercial foodservice environments likeairlines,hospitals,and schools.New formats,product types,formulations,and line extensions launched in the globalmarket including plant-based steak,sushi,and boiled eggs.Companies and organizations formed newpartnerships to advance current and futureproducts and grow the sector as a whole.These events from 2023 all contributed to anever-evolving global market for plant-basedalternatives.Continued activity such as the examplesdescribed in this section will be key to deliveringproducts that meet consumer needs across regionsand allow these products to compete withconventional foods.Check out our monthly Alternative ProteinOpportunity newsletter for updatesAcross the globe,plant-based productslaunch or expand distribution every week.GFIs monthly Alternative Protein Opportunitynewsletter tags and categorizes notableplant-based distribution updates,newproduct launches,partnerships,facilityopenings,and more,helping you keep up withthe fast-moving plant-based landscape.Sign up here.FacilitiesContinuing to build manufacturing capacity and furtherdevelop supply chain infrastructure for plant-basedproteins will be critical to the success of the industry inthe short and long term.GFIs latest analysisunderscores the opportunities that exist to optimizethe manufacturing landscape for plant-based meat.Retrofitting existing facilities,developing strategiccontract manufacturing partnerships,and building newfacilities will be important in the growth of the industryacross the globe.In 2023,a variety of companies and organizationsannounced,broke ground on,and opened facilitiesthroughout the world.Opened in 2023Food and beverage producer SunOpta opened a$125 million,285,000 square-foot plant-basedbeverage production facility in Texas,whichcreated 175 jobs and will allow the company todouble their plant-based beverage business by2025 over 2020 levels.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy13Plant protein manufacturer Ojah,whichspecializes in high-moisture extrusiontechnology,expanded their Netherlands facilityfrom 6,500 square meters to 10,000 squaremeters,more than doubling their currentproduction capacity.Plant-based baby formula brand Else Nutritionadded a second U.S.powder production facilityand began manufacturing at a new plant inEurope as the company aims to triple theirproduction capacity.United Arab Emirates-based food producer TheIFFCO Group opened their first 100-percentplant-based meat factory in the Middle East.TheDubai facility is producing The IFFCO GroupsTHRYVE brand of products made from fava beans.Plant-based oils and food producer AAKofficially opened their Innovation Center ofExcellence in Zaandijk,the Netherlands,whichaims to improve the taste and functionality ofplant-based products.Sweden-based Lantmnnen Biorefineriesopened a$77 million wheat protein extractionfacility in Norrkping,Sweden to broaden theirproduction capacity.Spain-based Mommus Foods opened a newfactory that has the capacity to produce 100,000units per month of plant-based cheese.France-based ingredients company Roquetteopened a new 4.5-million innovation centerthat provides technical and R&D support,equipment,labs,and scale-up testing for theplant-based ingredients market.Chicago-based food and commodities companyADM opened an 800-square-meter plant-basedinnovation center in the United Kingdom thatincludes a kitchen,chefs presentation theater,and flavor development lab.ADM also purchased Canadian pulse processorPrairie Pulse,adding another facility to theirplant protein operations.Broke ground in 2023The University of British Columbia brokeground on a 9,500-square-foot Food&BeverageInnovation Centre intended for both teachingand product development.The facility isexpected to be complete by 2024,and one of itsresearch projects will include the developmentof a plant-based Wagyu-style beef product.German plant-based food company Planteneershas started construction on a plant-based meatproduction facility in Illinois that is expected toopen in summer 2024.Announced in 2023French plant-based meat producer Umiamiannounced their acquisition of a14,000-square-meter Unilever factory inDuppigheim.Large agricultural company Bunge committed toinvest around$550 million in a new Indianafacility for soy protein concentrate for use inplant-based foods and other products.Climax Foods,a Berkeley-based alternativedairy company,announced the construction oftheir first production facilities,timed with theintroduction of their first artisanal plant-basedcheeses in Los Angeles,New York,and SanFrancisco.Danone North America announced a plan toinvest$65 million over the next two years tobuild a new bottle production line in Florida thatwill help expand production of key U.S.brands,including Silk coffee creamers.ADM and Marel are partnering on an alternativeprotein taste and texture innovation center in theNetherlands,which is expected to open in thesecond half of 2024.Plant-based food supplier Finnebrogue invested2.8 million to upgrade their plant-based meatfacility in Northern Ireland.The upgrade willreduce carbon dioxide emissions and increasecapacity.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy14New Zealand beverage manufacturer Free FlowManufacturing announced plans to open thecountrys first dedicated plant-based milk facilityin 2023.Canadian plant-based company No MeatFactory announced plans to open their first U.S.facility in Stanwood,Washington,producing aline of plant-based meat products.A few trends emerge from the facility news above.Many companies,including AAK,Roquette,andADM opened innovation-focused facilities.Othercompanies expanded current facilities or enterednew markets for the first time.Continuing toprioritize research and development to create tastyand affordable products while growing productionto improve accessibility are crucial actions neededto address industry barriers and challenges.Company landscapeTables 2 and 3 provide alphabetized lists of the top plant-based meat and milk brands by Euromonitors globalretail dollar sales estimates in 2023.Table 2:Brands with the most total plant-based meat&seafood retail dollar sales globally(alphabetized)BrandParent companyHeadquartersYear foundedBeyond MeatBeyond Meat Inc.United States2009Field RoastMaple Leaf FoodsCanada1991GardeinConagraUnited States1919Garden Gourmet/Hlsans KkNestl SASwitzerland1866ImpossibleImpossible Foods Inc.United States2011LightlifeMaple Leaf FoodsCanada1991MorningstarKellanovaUnited States1906QuornMonde Nissin Corp.United Kingdom1985Rgenwalder MhleRgenwalder Wurstfabrik CarlMuller GmbH&Co KGGermany1834Yves Veggie CuisineThe Hain Celestial Group Inc.United States1993Source:Euromonitor International Limited 2023 All rights reserved.Data displayed is from Staple Foods 2023,retail value RSP,Meat&Seafood substitutes top global brands,listed in alphabetical order.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy15Table 3:Brands with the most total plant-based milk retail dollar sales globally(alphabetized)BrandParent companyHeadquartersYear foundedAlmond BreezeBlue Diamond GrowersUnited States1910AlproDanone GroupFrance1919Coconut PalmCoconut Palm Group Co Ltd.China1956Dou Ben DouFujian Dali Food Co Ltd.China1989KikkomanKikkoman Corp.Japan1917LoloWanxiang Sannong Co Ltd.China1969OatlyOatlySweden1994SilkDanone GroupFrance1919VitasoyVitasoy International Holdings Ltd.China1940YangyuanHebei Yangyuan Zhihui Beverage Co Ltd.China1997Source:Euromonitor International Limited 2023 All rights reserved.Data displayed is from Dairy Products and Alternatives 2023,retailvalue RSP,Plant-based milk,top global brands,listed in alphabetical order.More information on these and other companies is available in GFIs company database.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy16Involvement by diversified companiesMany of the global leaders in consumer packaged goods(CPG)and meat production have some level ofinvolvement in the alternative protein industry.Whether through investment,acquisitions,partnerships,orproduction,this engagement can and has played an impactful role in supporting the growth of the sector.Table 4:Conventional companies with involvement in plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairySource:GFI analysis of publicly reported industry news and eventsTable 5:Conventional companies with involvement in alternative proteinsSource:GFI analysis of publicly reported industry news and events2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy17PartnershipsPartnerships in the plant-based sector play a major role in the growth and success of the industry.Companies andorganizations can share knowledge and expertise to develop new products,optimize inputs,conduct research,scale production,and share distribution channels to make these products more accessible across markets.While not comprehensive,the list below highlights some notable partnerships from 2023.Table 6:Partnerships tableProduct development partnershipsMany of the partnerships happening in the plant-based industry are centered around product development ascompanies collaborate to leverage each others product knowledge,infrastructure,and brand equity.Companies/organizationsDetailsModern Plant-Based Foods&CarboneRestaurant GroupDeveloping plant-based pizzasCP Kelco&Chr.HansenDeveloping shelf-stable plant-based yogurtSimpliiGood&Haifa GroupDeveloping spirulina productsNepra Foods&a U.S.bread companyDeveloping gluten-free bread with plant-based eggsSchouten Europe&GrassaDeveloping alternative protein products from grass proteinMore Foods&TivolDeveloping plant-based meat products from pumpkin seedsVly&KWSDeveloping plant-based foods from pea proteinPlant Based Seafood Co.&ICL Group Ltd.Developing technologies for plant-based seafoodJUST Egg&Cheryls CookiesDeveloping plant-based cookies with plant-based eggsMorningStar Farms&PringlesDeveloping a new line of plant-based chicken fingersPlant Based Foods&ViolifeDeveloping plant-based ready-to-eat mealsAlpha Foods&The EVERY CompanyDeveloping a range of plant-based foodsFoodys&CocuusDeveloping 3D printed plant-based baconDayDayCook&NestleDeveloping a range of plant-based meal productsHunger Brands,Heura Foods,&VckaDeveloping a plant-based meat brandAlpha Foods&Eat JUSTExpanding Alpha Foods plant-based breakfast itemsGreen Rebel&AirAsiaProviding plant-based meat on inflight menusWunderkern&BauerDeveloping alternative dairy products2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy18Ingredient-focused partnershipsOne key to developing and improving products is optimizing ingredients.In 2023,a variety of partnershipsfocused on plant-based ingredients.Companies/organizationsDetailsReady Burger&GivaudanWorking to improve fat used in burgersNepra Foods&ScoularDevelop and market specialized plant-based ingredientsMegmilk Snow Brand Co.&AgrocorpInternationalMaking plant-based ingredients for alternative meat and dairyproductsAmfora&McClintock LLCImproving protein content and yields of soy varietiesRoquette&DaizProducing texturized,pea-based protein ingredientCargill&Cubiq FoodsIncorporating plant-based fats into ingredient offeringsR&D partnershipsOrganizations are coming together to tackle major research needs and uncover opportunities across theplant-based sector.Companies/organizationsDetailsHunch Ventures&Earth First Food VenturesBuild Net-Zero Food Innovation projectGroup of public and private Netherlands entitiesIdentify food safety and quality risks in plant-based productsProtein Industries Canada&WageningenUniversitySupport alternative protein research and developmentFood Systems Innovations&Noa WeissLaunching an AI tool to optimize plant-based proteinsScaling and distribution partnershipsGrowing scale and increasing the distribution of products is a significant barrier in alternative proteins.Partnershipsin this area can allow companies to access existing infrastructure to reach more markets and consumers.Companies/organizationsDetailsFresh Del Monte&VertageScale production of plant-based cheese productsDUG&HaofoodExpanding plant-based milk brand to ChinaVgarden&MCT DairiesExpanding plant-based products to the United StatesPURIS&Palmer HollandExpanding PURIS distribution of pea ingredients2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy19Product launchesNew plant-based products are hitting groceryshelves every year,and distribution on currentproducts is expanding.While not a comprehensivelist of every launch in 2023,below are some notablelaunches that demonstrate the ever-changingplant-based landscape.RetailLarge food and meat companies continue to getinvolved in the plant-based sector.A variety ofcompanies announced plant-based productlaunches in retail in 2023.Tyson Foods,a leading U.S.meat company,introduced plant-based nuggets under theirflagship brand.The decision marked the firsttime plant-based products are available underthe Tyson brand rather than the Tyson-ownedRaised and Rooted brand.The nuggets areavailable in both retail and foodservice in theUnited States.Nestl,the worlds largest food and beveragecompany,announced the launch of shelf-stableplant-based meat brand Maggi Veg in Chile.TheMaggi Veg line includes plant-based mincedmeat made from soy.The company also debutedtheir first plant-based line of Hagen-Dazsproducts set to appear first in Canada.Kraft Heinz launched Kraft Heinz Not Companyplant-based cheese slices in retail stores acrossthe United States and their NotMayo product inU.S.Target locations.The partnership with NotCoalso produced a plant-based version of theclassic Kraft Mac&Cheese product.They alsodebuted three new flavors of their plant-basedPhiladelphia Cream Cheese line across theUnited States after a successful trial.Retailers are also getting involved.Whether it bethrough developing their own private label line ofplant-based products or making commitments toexpand store sets,retailers are demonstrating theircommitment to plant-based foods.Albertsons,the U.S.grocery chain,is expandingtheir private-label Open Nature brand with 12new plant-based products,including shreddedcheese,yogurt,and ice cream.Spain-based supermarket chain Eroski revealeda private-label range of plant-based products,including milks,burgers,and chicken nuggets,and more products were added in 2023.German budget retailer Aldi announced thatthey will expand their plant-based offerings toover 1,000 plant-based products by the end of2024,including a variety of plant-based meatand dairy products.Plant-based categories,particularly plant-basedmeat,continued to evolve in 2023 with innovation inthe form of new product types,formats,formulations,and line extensions hitting retail shelves.Canadian plant-based seafood brand KonsciousFoods announced that their plant-based frozensushi range will now be available in Whole FoodsMarket locations across North America.South Koreas UNLIMEAT announced the launchof plant-based tuna made from soy.UNLIMEATsexisting plant-based pulled pork product line isdistributed at Albertsons stores across theUnited States.Plant-based brand Daring announced they arereleasing their first line of frozen entrees,whichwill be available in several varieties and willfeature Darings signature plant-based chicken,along with new teriyaki pieces and buffalo wingsproducts.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy20Impossible Foods launched a lower-fat version oftheir signature plant-based beef.Impossible BeefLite has 75 percent less saturated fat and 45percent less total fat than 90/10 conventional beef.Beyond Meat introduced Beyond BurgerChicken-Style,Beyond Schnitzel,and BeyondTenders at supermarkets across theNetherlands.The company also expandeddistribution on their Beyond Steak,the firstplant-based steak to be certified by theAmerican Heart Association,and PopcornChicken products in the United States.Whole-cut plant-based meat producer JuicyMarbles launched their plant-based filet steak atthe Austrian supermarkets BILLA PLUS andBILLA PFLANZILLA.They also reached along-term distribution agreement with Britishretailer Waitrose for Juicy Marbles plant-basedfilet mignon and announced the development ofthe first plant-based rib with edible bones.Plant-based company Crafty Counter islaunching their egg-free hard-boiledWunderEggs made with cashews,almonds,andcoconuts into Whole Foods Market stores in theUnited States.Israel-based Redefine Meat is now offering theirplant-based products at Shufersal,the largestsupermarket chain in Israel.Spanish food tech companies Foodys andCocuus launched 3D-printed plant-based baconin Carrefour supermarkets across Spain.FoodserviceIn 2023,the foodservice sector rebounded fromhistoric traffic declines in 2020 due to the COVID-19pandemic.People are returning to their favoriterestaurants and in turn,plant-based companies arecontinuing to lean into this unique channel.Foodservice environments can be pivotal indelivering a unique,oftentimes first,experiencewith plant-based alternative products,setting thestage for future encounters.Convenience plays a major factor in consumerbehavior,and no operators do it better than quickservice and fast-casual restaurants.Below areexamples of how chains are incorporatingplant-based alternatives into their menus.Starbucks Malaysia launched sandwichescontaining plant-based chicken and beef inpartnership with Green Rebel Foods.Jackfruit-based meat producer Jack&Annies ispartnering with fast-casual chain Smashburger tooffer a jackfruit burger at select Smashburgerlocations in Colorado,New York,and New Jersey.Subway locations across Northern Europe willnow feature The Vegetarian Butchersplant-based beef slices as part of the newPlant-Based Steak Sub.Burger King restaurants in three NordiccitiesOslo,Stockholm,and Copenhagenwententirely plant-based for a month with burgersmade from The Vegetarian Butcher patties.Chile-based NotCo launched new NotCheeseproducts at JUMBO,one of the largest retailersin Chile,and partnered with Burger King Peru toprovide plant-based cheese products for theirplant-based Whopper.Californian plant-based seafood companyImpact Food entered a strategic distributionagreement with fast-casual chain Pokeworks.Fast-casual chain TGI Fridays UK announcedthat Brazilian company Future Farm will supplyTGI Fridays plant-based burger patties for theirplant-based menu offerings.Taco Bell UK launched a plant-based seasonedbeef product at 132 locations.NotCos plant-based milk and cheese productsare now available at Starbucks locations acrossMexico and Argentina.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy21Fast food chain Shake Shack launched newplant-based custard and shake products at all oftheir 260 locations across the United States.The ice cream treats are made with theplant-based company NotCos NotMilk product.Shake Shack also introduced a plant-basedburger to their national menu.Caribou Coffee and Eat Just announced thatCaribous JUST Egg Roasted Tomato&PestoFlatbread is now a permanent menu option at400 locations in the United States afteroutperforming the chains existing vegetarianbreakfast option by 45 percent.Oatly partnered with Insomnia Cookies to makeavailable Oatlys original and chocolate-flavoredoat milk at more than 250 Insomnia Cookieslocations in North America.Full-service restaurants offer plant-based companiesthe perfect place to deliver their product in anelevated setting.In 2023,young brands debuted at avariety of specialty restaurants.Redefine Meat,the Israel-based maker of3D-printed plant-based meat products,saidtheir products are now on menus at nearly adozen restaurants across Italy.Israeli startup Chunk Foods launched theirwhole cut plant-based steak at Talk of the TownRestaurant Groups Charleys Steak House inOrlando,Florida.This launch represents the firsttime a steakhouse chain has featured aplant-based steak option.Israels Yo Egg,which produces runny-yolk eggsfrom chickpeas and soy,debuted at six LosAngeles restaurants:Real Food Daily,JunkyardDog,Flore,Swingers Diner,Coyote Grill,andLoma Lindas Vegan District Asian Eatery.Plant-based egg company Zero Egg will launchtheir Zero Egg Breakfast Sandwich at all TheFriendly Toast restaurant locations in the UnitedStates.Sometimes overlooked but ever-present arenoncommercial foodservice locations such asschools,businesses,airports,hospitals,entertainment,and more.Below are a few examplesof plant-based alternatives showing up in ubiquitous,everyday locations that reach significant numbers ofconsumers.After a successful pilot program,New YorkCitys public hospitals began servingplant-based meals as the primary dinner optionfor inpatients at all of their 11 public hospitals.Movie theater chain AMC Theaters will nowfeature a plant-based grilled chicken sandwich,patty melt,and gourmet tenders made with Dr.Praegers plant-based products.German airline Eurowings Discover isintegrating Beyond Meats meatballs into theirin-flight menu,becoming the first German airlineto incorporate plant-based meats on flights.Germanys national train service,DeutscheBahn,continued their plant-forward approachwith a plant-based currywurst.Heura,a plant-based meat producer based inSpain,has collaborated with over 450 schools inthe region to bring their plant-based meat toschool lunch menus.U.S.plant-based chicken company RebellyousFoods secured a distribution agreement withVizient,a purchasing organization for healthcareand educational institutions in the United States.E-commerceE-commerce is another channel where products andbrands can get their foot in the door by sellingproducts directly to consumers.This platform isimportant in a companys distribution strategy,allowing them to reach consumers quickly andacross regions while limiting upfront time and costsneeded to get products on shelves and menus.E-commerce developments in 2023 include:2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy22Following a successful trial in the eastern andmidwestern United States,the Plant BasedSeafood Companys Mind Blown Crab Cakes arenow available nationwide through online retailerHungryroot.Singaporean plant-based seafood companyGrowthwell launched the HAPPIEE!brand inthe United Kingdom via Ocados and Tescose-commerce websites.Beyond Meat launched five new products inChina,including new varieties of burgers anddumplings.The products are available atMETRO,Ole,and Sams Club in addition toe-commerce platforms Tmall and Pinduoduo.South Korean plant-based cheese brandArmored Fresh is launching a U.S.-widee-commerce platform for their plant-basedsliced,cubed,and spreadable cheeses.Oatly and Amazon announced a distributionagreement that will make Oatly productsavailable on Amazons marketplaces in Germany,France,Italy,Spain,the Netherlands,andBelgium.Romil Ratra,a hotelier and restaurateur basedin India,partnered with Graviss Good Foods tofound Plantaway,a brand offering plant-basedmeat,milk,cheese,dips,and dressings.Thebrand will launch via its online store and othere-commerce platforms such as Amazon,VeganDukan,and Big Basket.Indias Wakao Foods launched a newContinental Burger Patty made from jackfruit,pea protein,and spices,which is now availableon Wakaos website and select e-commerceplatforms.Activity in blended meatBlended meat is another area with involvement frommajor conventional meat companies,recent productlaunches,and new start-ups.Blended meat isdefined here as products that combine plant proteinor mycoprotein(and sometimes vegetables)withconventional meat components to form an endproduct.Hybrid meat refers to alternative proteinproducts made from multiple production platformssuch as cultivated fat and plant-based proteins.More research and industry alignment are neededaround the nomenclature used to describe theseemerging product formulations.Hormel produces their Applegate Well Carved line ofburgers and meatballs combining whole vegetableswith conventional meat.Perdue,in partnership withthe Better Meat Co.,owns the brand PerduesChicken Plus,a line of kid-focused chicken productsmixing in a quarter cup of chickpeas and cauliflowerper serving.One recently announced start-up,Momentum Foods,launched products under thebrand name Pauls Table that feature 90 percentplant-based ingredients and 10 percentanimal-based ingredients such as collagen and fat.Other examples of blended meat companies includeRebel Meat,Grateful Market,Phils Finest,MushFoods,and Nanka.Despite recent activity in blended meat,thiscategory remains relatively small and discrete.These companies and brands,as with any emergingcategory,will not only have to create products thatsuccessfully meet consumers needs but will alsohave to craft and hone clear messaging that driveshome the benefits of these foods to consumers.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy23Consumer insightsConsumer insightsThis section focuses on U.S.consumer perceptions,behaviors,and needs for plant-based meatComparisons to global consumers and specificregions are noted,and additional consumer insightsfor other regions can be found in reports by GFIsaffiliates and partners in Brazil,Europe,Israel,Asia-Pacific,and China.OverviewIn the United States,36 percent of consumersreported eating plant-based meat in 2023,with 25percent eating it monthly or more frequently,according to research conducted by Morning Consulton behalf of GFI in December 2023.This researchalso showed that 95 percent of plant-based meateaters also reported eating conventional meat,whichparallels panel data showing that 95 percent ofhouseholds that bought plant-based meat alsobought conventional meat(based on GFI and PlantBased Foods Association(PBFA)analysis of datacommissioned from SPINS).This underscores thatomnivore shoppers are a significant market forplant-based proteins,and suggests the foods broadappeal.While plant-based meat sales were down in2023,25 percent of Americans reported continuingto eat plant-based meat products at least once permonth and former consumers who have not eatenplant-based meat in the past year say they are likelyto repurchase products as taste and texture improveand costs decline.Research conducted by MorningConsult on behalf of GFIPolling firm Morning Consult conductedmultiple surveys of the U.S.population onbehalf of GFI throughout 2023 to understandtheir evolving perceptions of and behaviorstoward alternative proteins.Results from ourDecember research are summarizedthroughout this section.Conventional meatconsumption,reduction,andsubstitutionMeat consumption and the role ofprotein:Conventional meat sales in the United States haverisen every year for the past decade,according toUSDA estimates.In recent years,protein has become an increasinglyimportant driver of food choice,likely contributing toincreases in meat consumption.In 2023,“highprotein”overtook“low-fat”and“low-carb”inGoogle search trends for the first time(see figure 2).2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy25Figure 2:Google searches for protein overtake other nutrition topics,2019-2023Source:Google Trends:Nutrition Topics in U.S.,2019-2023;numbers are indexed to maximum value of any included search during periodAccording to research conducted by MorningConsult on behalf of GFI,66 percent of U.S.consumers claim it is important to them to eat ahigh-protein diet.For most,this is due to theassociation between protein and health:a 2022Euromonitor poll of global consumers found thatmore than 57 percent of consumers sought toincrease their protein intake because it is“better forthem”or“makes them feel healthier.”Many plant-based meat brands communicate proteincontent on the front and back of their packaging.Including this metric connects with consumers whoare seeking to increase protein intake.Continuing todevelop products that contain protein contentsimilar to conventional meat,and communicating thepresence of that protein content on packaging,willbe important for plant-based meat companies as theindustry grows.Meat reduction:Despite Americans high meat consumption anddesire for protein,a significant number expressinterest in reducing meat consumption,primarily dueto health concerns.A total of 59 percent of U.S.adults claim to consider“negative health effects”when choosing whether to consume conventionalmeat.But rates of vegetarianism and veganism in theUnited States are low.Morning Consults polling onbehalf of GFI found three percent followingvegetarian and three percent following vegan diets;a2023 Gallup poll and a 2022 McKinsey poll foundcomparable rates.While few Americans are eliminating meat entirely,asignificant minority report reducing meatconsumption.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy26In a 2023 survey by AP-NORC,43 percent of consumersreported eating less meat than they used to.MorningConsults polling on behalf of GFI found 11 percent ofconsumers report reducing their consumption of allmajor non-seafood meat types(beef,pork,and poultry)in the past year,with 18 percent reporting eating lessbeef and 18 percent less pork.Health and social factors:Consumers reducing meat consumption consistentlycite health as a reason,with 57 percent claiming thiscontributes“a lot”or“some”to their meat reduction(GFI/Morning Consult,Dec.2023).An AP-NORCsurvey similarly found that 50 percent of consumersclaim health as their top reason for reducing meatconsumption when asked to choose between health,money,the environment,and taste.The experience of the COVID-19 pandemic seemedto influence much of consumers health concernsabout meat.A total of 55 percent of Americans saythey consider the use of antibiotics in meat whenchoosing whether to eat meat,and 55 percent saythey consider the risk of foodborne illness(GFI/Morning Consult,Dec.2023).While these arehigher than the number of consumers who reportactually reducing their meat consumption,they pointto public health concerns as a tension manyconsumers face.Many consumers also say theyworry about the individual health effects of meatconsumption.A 2021 study found eight to 28percent of those surveyed were aware of increasedrisks of various conditions including heart disease,cancer,and diabetes from red meat consumption,with heart disease awareness highest at 28 percent.Plant-based meat is uniquely positioned as analternative to conventional meat that can offerconsumers the protein they want while allowingthem to reduce their meat consumption,which manyconsumers say they aspire to do for a variety ofreasons:personal health benefits like lowercholesterol and lower risk for heart disease;publichealth benefits like not contributing to antibioticresistance:and environmental benefits like lesswater and land use and fewer greenhouse gasemissions.These aspirational benefits,if messagedeffectively and balanced with core consumer driversof taste,texture,and price parity with conventionalmeat,are opportunities to tap into consumer driversthat can grow the category.Om Noms are plant-based protein stripsPhoto credit:YUMASOY FOODS LTD.Consumer awareness and useWhile U.S.plant-based meat retail sales decreasedin 2023,usage patterns suggest that plant-basedmeat enjoys a strong core of loyal consumers,hasroom to grow with a large number of still-unawareconsumers,and that even lapsed and holdoutconsumers remain open to plant-based meat ifcompanies continue to innovate and improve thetaste and price of their products(see figure 3).Awareness,familiarity,and appeal:A December 2023 poll conducted by MorningConsult on behalf of GFI found that 58 percent ofU.S.adults claim awareness of plant-based meat and47 percent say they are“very”or“somewhat”familiar.While 41 percent claimed to have seen,read,or heard“a lot”or“some”about plant-basedmeat in the past year,only 10 percent claimed tohave heard“a lot,”suggesting many remain unawareof recent coverage of the category,giving companiesroom to shape perceptions(see figure 3).The moreconsumers hear about plant-based meat,the morelikely they are to express an interest in purchasing it(see figure 4).Trial:Only 43 percent of U.S.adults report having evertried a plant-based meat product(GFI/MorningConsult,Dec.2023).This leaves almost 6 in 10Americans completely untapped for the plant-basedmeat market.Ensuring these potential consumersconsider trying it,and that their taste,affordability,and other product needs are met,will help set up thecategory for deeper consumer engagement past aninitial trial.Purchase and eating frequency:While most Americans have not yet tried plant-basedmeat,most who have continue to enjoy it regularly:13 percent of Americans eat plant-based meatonce a week or more frequently.12 percent eat it less than weekly but at leastonce a month.11 percent report eating it a few times or at leastonce per year.This points to a loyal core of consumers who arelikely to continue using the category in the future,despite overall sales declines in 2023(GFI/MorningConsult,Dec.2023).Consumers increasing anddecreasing consumption ofplant-based meat:A total of 51 percent of Americans have not yet triedplant-based meat(GFI/Morning Consult,Dec.2023).Of those who havent tried it,about half dont expectto purchase plant-based meat in the future,whilethe other half do.Meanwhile,lapsed users whohave not purchased it in the past year remain veryopen to repurchasing if products more closelymatch the taste and texture of meat.Many consumers reported increasing theirconsumption of plant-based meat in 2023.MorningConsult found that 29 percent of consumersreported eating“significantly”or“somewhat”moreplant-based meat,42 percent ate a“comparable”amount,and only 21 percent ate“somewhat”or“much”less.Mintel saw even higher numbers ofconsumers intending to purchase plant-based meatproducts in the coming year,at 32 percent.Overall,these usage rates align with householdpenetration rates seen in retail data and suggest acore of loyal users and further room for plant-basedmeat to grow.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy28Figure 3:Plant-based meat consumer metricsSource:Poll by Morning Consult on behalf of GFI,n=2,228 US adults,December 2023Figure 4:How likely are you,if at all,to purchase plant-based meat products?Source:Poll by Morning Consult on behalf of GFI,n=2,228 US adults,December 20232023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy29Consumer motivationsLapsed consumers of plant-based meat tend to pointto taste and price as reasons they stoppedpurchasing.Looking ahead,products more closelymimicking the sensory experience of conventionalmeat will be important to acquire new consumers(see figure 5).Meanwhile,most consumers seeplant-based meat as healthy and believe it is ashealthy as or healthier than conventional meat.Health as a reason to tryplant-based meat:A 2021 survey by Consumer Reports found that 51percent of consumers eating plant-based meatclaimed it was healthier than conventional animalmeat.And a 2023 survey by Mintel saw 55 percentof consumers who reported increasing theirplant-based meat consumption cite health as theirtop reason.Taste and environmental concernsconsistently rank as additional drivers of statedpurchase intent(see figure 6).Perceptions and comparisons toconventional meat:U.S.adults rate plant-based meat positively on mostof the key factors driving their decision-making:safe,healthy,good for the environment,and nutritious.However,a slight minority of consumers describe theproducts as tasty,affordable,and good value,suggesting gaps remain around sensory quality andprice.A total of 45 percent of U.S.adults alsodescribe the products as processed,which signalsan opportunity to gain a deeper understanding ofhealth-related motivators and barriers(GFI/MorningConsult,Dec.23).Consumers are more likely to rate conventional meatas tasty,high-protein,affordable,good value,easy tofind,and easy to cook,and they are more likely torate plant-based meat as healthy,good for theenvironment,and low in saturated fat andcholesterol.This suggests many consumers alreadysee the unique benefits of these products,but thereis also a need for product innovation,cost reduction,and consumer education to maximize plant-basedmeats appeal(see figure 7).Perceptions of plant-based meat as processed:In2023,processed foods gained media attention.Some coverage mentioned deliberatemisinformation and disinformation campaignsfocused on plant-based meat,as documented by a2023 social media analysis by Changing MarketsFoundation and Ripple Research.However,mostconsumers do not appear to be aware of orconcerned by these claims:a majority of consumersin 2023 who reported hearing media coverage ofplant-based meats said the coverage was primarilypositive(47 percent)or neutral(45 percent)(GFI/Morning Consult,Dec.23).Consumers report seeking out healthy andhigh-protein foods.U.S.adults are most likely torate plant-based meat as“better”(in the case ofoverall healthiness)or“equal to”(in the case ofprotein)animal-based meat(see figure 7).A majority of Americans claim it is“somewhat”or“very”important for them to avoid eating processedfoods,and also claim to avoid foods for otherreasons,including nutritional components likesaturated fat and cholesterol where a majority rateplant-based meat as equal to or better thanconventional meat.Plant-based meat companieshave explored marketing about or featuring on-packhealth benefits,including low cholesterol and lowsaturated fat content.While the 2022 McKinsey survey found that 43percent of consumers want to reduce their intake ofprocessed food,2023 saw few changes in consumerbehaviors around plant-based meats.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy30Consumer opportunitiesin Southeast AsiaA study conducted in late 2023 by the Good GrowthCo.and released by GFI APAC revealed that mostconsumers in Southeast Asia intend to continueeating animal meat and nearly a quarter want toincrease their consumption.Interestingly,enthusiasm for plant-based meat was highest notamong vegetarians or even flexitarians,but amongconsumers who eat the most conventional meat andare most likely to consume more of it.The study showed that Southeast Asian consumersbroadly view plant-based meat as a healthy anddelicious product,but that cost remains a majorbarrier.If plant-based meat manages to achieve a 20percent lower price than conventional meat,morethan 80 percent of Southeast Asian consumers saythey would buy it,including about half of those whowould otherwise reject it.Conversely,if plant-basedmeat is priced 20 percent higher than conventionalmeat,there are large drop-offs in potential interestamong everyone except the most enthusiasticconsumers.With the average plant-based meatproduct price 35 percent higher than its conventionalcounterpart,there is an enormous opportunity tobring consumers into the category.Since Southeast Asian consumers primarily viewplant-based meat as an opportunity to diversify theirprotein consumption,interest in trying blended meatproductswhich mix plant-based meat andconventional meat within a single productwasnearly unanimously positive,even garnering supportamong consumer segments uninterested in fullyplant-based products.The vast majority(93 percent)of surveyed consumers expressed interest in tryingblended meat,including more than 75 percent ofpeople who were skeptical of trying fully plant-basedmeat and 80 percent of those who have eatenplant-based meat but dont intend to again.Thisresearch indicates strong market opportunities fornovel protein products and innovation that can meetconsumer needs on taste and affordability.Appealing to lapsed consumers:Around 50 percent of lapsed consumers claim theywould buy a new plant-based meat product if theywere offered a sample and found its taste andtexture were exactly like conventional meat,and 43percent would consider purchasing if it cost less thanconventional meat(GFI/Morning Consult,Dec.23).Improving taste and texture and exposingconsumers to new products should be a top priorityfor plant-based meat companies as they continue toinnovate with new products,improve existing ones,and continue working to lower prices.Tender Foods plant-based meat.Photo credit:Tender Food2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy31Figure 5:Which of the following reasons,if any,would convince you to buy a new plant-based meat product?Select all that applySource:Poll by Morning Consult on behalf of GFI,n=2,228 US adults,December 2023Figure 6:How well do each of the following attributes describe plant-based meat products?“Very”or“somewhat”well(top 2 box)Source:Poll by Morning Consult on behalf of GFI,n=2,228 US adults,December 20232023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy32Figure 7:Do each of the following attributes describe plant-based meat or conventional meat better?Source:Poll by Morning Consult on behalf of GFI,n=2,228 US adults,December 2023Figure 8:Which of the following reasons,if any,would convince you to buy a new plant-based meat product?Select all that apply.Source:Poll by Morning Consult on behalf of GFI,n=2,228 US adults,December 20232023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy33SalesSalesU.S.retail sales overviewOver the past decade,the U.S.plant-based foodretail market has grown substantially.When GFIbegan tracking plant-based food sales in U.S.retail,we sized the 2017 market at$3.9 billion,accordingto SPINS data.In 2023,the market was worth$8.1billion.This growth has been driven by products thatappeal to mainstream consumers by mimicking thetaste,texture,and functionality of conventionalanimal products.Companies ranging from startups to large foodmanufacturers generated growth through significantinnovation and investment in their plant-basedportfolios.Across categories,consumers have moreoptions than ever when selecting plant-based meat,seafood,egg,and dairy products that can beswapped in for their conventional counterparts,andmany plant-based categories increasingly make upnotable shares of their overall categories.Againstthis backdrop of long-term progress,2023 wascharacterized by a challenging market environment.Insights released by GFI and PBFA based on retailsales data commissioned from SPINS show that the2023 U.S.retail plant-based food market was worth$8.1 billion.Plant-based unit sales were down ninepercent from 2022,while dollar sales were downtwo percent.Plant-based food unit sales fell acrossmost categories tracked in this dataset in 2023,while dollar sales increased for some.Inflationcontinued to impact retail food sales as prices roseacross most categories in 2023.Key insightsDespite most plant-based categoriesexperiencing unit sales declines,plant-basedcreamers,protein powders and liquids,andbaked goods and other desserts saw both unitand dollar sales increase in 2023.Plant-based milk remains the largest category.The category reached$2.9 billion in sales in 2023managing to grow in dollar sales by one percentwhile units declined eight percent in 2023.Plant-based meat and seafood sales declinescontinued.Both dollar and unit sales fell for thesecond consecutive year indicating thatopportunities exist to better meet consumerneeds on key product characteristics like tasteand affordability.Six in 10 U.S.households purchased plant-basedfoods in 2023.The majority of U.S.householdspurchased in the sector and 81 percent did somore than once throughout the year.Evergrains plant-based protein powder made with upcycledbarley protein.Photo credit:The Hut Group2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy35Figure 9:Plant-based foods market,U.S.retail(20212023)Sales data note:The data presented in this graph is based on custom GFI and PBFA plant-based categories that were created by refiningstandard SPINS categories.Due to the custom nature of these categories,the presented data will not align with standard SPINS categories.Source:Total market=SPINS Natural Grocery Channel SPINS Conventional Multi Outlet Channel SPINS Convenience Channel(powered byCircana,formerly IRI&NPD)|52 Weeks Ending 12-3-2023Box 1:U.S.retail market data collectionPoint-of-sale(POS)dataTo size the U.S.retail market for plant-based foods,GFI and PBFA commissioned retail sales data from the market research firm SPINS.The firm built the dataset by first pulling in all products with the SPINS“plant-based positioned”product attribute.The dataset wasfurther edited by adding plant-based private-label products.Inherently plant-based foods,such as chickpeas and kale,are notincluded.Due to the custom nature of these categories,the retail data presented on this page may not align with standard SPINScategories.Additionally,SPINS pulled in relevant mainstream subcategories(excluding plant-based positioned products)to create theconventional categories discussed above.Finally,the total edibles category was pulled to bring in all grocery,frozen,and refrigeratededible items across the retail grocery landscape as well as protein powders and bars.SPINS obtained the data over the 52-week,104-week,156-week,and 208-week periods ending December 3,2023,from the SPINS Natural Supermarket Channel,SPINSConventional Multi-Outlet Channel,and SPINS Convenience Channel(powered by Circana).SPINS defines these channels as follows:Conventional Multi Outlet(MULO):More than 110,000 retail locations spanning the grocery outlet,the drug outlet,and selectedretailers across mass merchandisers,including Walmart,club,dollar,and military.Natural Supermarket Channel:More than 1,900 full-format stores with$2 million in annual sales and 40%or more ofUPC-coded sales from natural/organic/specialty products.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy36Convenience Channel:More than 147,000 convenience locations that are less than 5,000 square feet,have extended hours,stock at least 500 SKUs,and provide a mix of grocery items like beverages,snacks and confections,and tobacco.This is generally considered the broadest available view of retail food sales,although not all retailers are represented.Somecompanies,such as Whole Foods Market,Trader Joes,and Costco,do not report their scan data to Circana but are represented viaprojections.Please note that this methodology has changed compared to that used in previous reporting by GFI.We do not recommendcomparing data released in prior years to the data included here.Consumer panel dataTo understand consumer purchasing dynamics and demographics,GFI and PBFA also commissioned consumer panel data from SPINS.The process for pulling the panel data was separate from that for the POS data,which may result in minor category differences.SPINScombines Circana Scan Panel with proprietary Product Intelligence to provide a unique view into shopper incrementality,loyalty,cross-purchase,demographics,and more.SPINS obtained the data over the 52-week,104-week,156-week,and 208-week periodsending December 3,2023,from all U.S.outlets.CategoriesPlant-based food categories exist in various stages ofdevelopment,and unit sales declined across mostcategories in 2023.Plant-based milk remains thelargest category with nearly 15 percent market shareof total milk dollar sales.Emerging categories suchas plant-based eggs also experienced declines in2023 after unit sales grew 25 percent in 2022.Closing the price gapIn 2023,every plant-based and conventional foodcategory GFI has data onas well as the total foodand beverage retail categorysaw average prices perunit grow.Consumers continue to see higher pricesat the shelf,making the price gap betweenplant-based and their conventional counterparts arelevant challenge to plant-based brands hoping toreach a broader swath of consumers.Plant-based manufacturers can drive appeal andestablish their products as everyday options byclosing this price gap.In 2023,pound for pound,theaverage price premium was 77 percent forplant-based meat and seafood.Per dozen,theaverage price premium for plant-based eggs was317 percent,and gallon for gallon,the premium forplant-based milk was 104 percent.For a comprehensive overview of U.S.retail sales data,including coverage of all plant-based categoriesand additional detail on the plant-based meat and plant-based milk categories,as well as consumerpurchase dynamics,check out GFIs market data page.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy37Figure 10:Plant-based food category dollar sales,dollar sales growth,unit sales,and unit sales growth 2023Sales data note:The data presented in this graph is based on custom GFI and PBFA plant-based categories that were created by refiningstandard SPINS categories.Due to the custom nature of these categories,the presented data will not align with standard SPINS categories.Source:Total market=SPINS Natural Grocery Channel SPINS Conventional Multi Outlet Channel SPINS Convenience Channel(powered byCircana,formerly IRI&NPD)|52 Weeks Ending 12-3-2023Figure 11:Plant-based versus animal-based price per weight comparison,2023Source:Plant-based meat prices per pound are based on frozen and refrigerated plant-based meat subcategories from SPINS year ending12/3/23.Animal-based meat prices per pound are based on data for fresh meat subcategories from the Circana year ending Dec 2023.Plant-based milk prices per gallon and plant-based egg prices per dozen are based on the custom plant-based categories created by GFI&PBFA from SPINS data year ending 12/3/23.Animal-based milk and egg prices from US BLS statistics December 2023 value.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy38U.S.consumer dynamicsand researchFamiliarity,awareness,and trial of plant-based foodshave grown dramatically over the last decade.Inrecent years,however,the number of householdspurchasing has leveled off or declined for someplant-based categories.There is still progress to be made on importantcharacteristics like taste,price,nutrition,andconvenience for plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy to compete with the larger conventionalmarket.Strides forward on these characteristics willbe paramount to reaching more consumers anddriving loyalty in the long run.Consumer demographics for overallplant-based foodsPlant-based food category purchases resonate withselect consumer demographics.Relative to theaverage household,purchasers of plant-based foodstend to be younger,be from higher-incomehouseholds,and have graduate degrees.AsianAmerican consumers are also more likely to buyplant-based foods.In addition to sales data,other key metrics includinghousehold penetration and repeat purchase ratedemonstrate growth opportunities for plant-basedcategories.Six in 10 households purchased plant-basedfoods in 2023.The majority of U.S.householdspurchased plant-based products,similar to 2022.Plant-based milk had the largest share ofhouseholds purchasing among plant-basedcategories.Nearly half of U.S.householdspurchased plant-based milk at least one time in2023.Additionally,nearly 80 percent of thosehouseholds were repeat purchasers.Plant-based meat and seafood werepurchased by 15 percent of households.Among those households,62 percent purchasedmultiple times in the category.Plant-based creamers reached as manyhouseholds as plant-based meat and seafooddid.In the United States,15 percent ofhouseholds purchased plant-based creamers in2023,up from 11 percent in 2020.Many plant-based categories saw householdpenetration rates fall somewhat or slightly in2023.All plant-based categories tracked in thedataset saw household penetration rates declineor stay flat versus 2022 levels.Notably,plant-based meat and seafood fell from 19percent in 2022 to 15 percent in 2023,indicating a need to reengage consumers.Most repeat buying rates held steady in 2023.Across the majority of plant-based categories,repeat rates held relatively steady year over year.Households that purchased in one plant-basedcategory were much more likely to bepurchasers of other plant-based categories.For example,25 percent of householdspurchasing plant-based milk also purchasedplant-based meat and seafood,compared to 15percent of total households.And 67 percent ofhouseholds purchasing plant-based meat andseafood also purchased plant-based milk,compared to 44 percent of total households.Households that purchased both plant-basedand conventional meat are high-valueconsumers.Households buying bothplant-based and conventional meat spent 20percent more by dollars(and 17 percent more byunits)on total food purchases than the averagehousehold and 21 percent more by dollars(and18 percent more by units)than households onlybuying conventional meat in 2023.Price pointsand household sizes likely play a role in thisincreased spending.Nonetheless,consumerspurchasing plant-based meat and seafood arevaluable shoppers.Source:Unless otherwise cited,all U.S.retail salesand U.S.consumer dynamics data reported abovewere derived from GFIs analysis of SPINS data.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy39Figure 12:Purchase dynamics of plant-based foods 2023Household data note:SPINS uses a separate process from the sales data to pull household panel data which may result in minorcategory differences.Source:National Consumer Panel(powered by Circana),All Outlets,52 weeks ending 12-3-23Global retail sales overviewThe plant-based categories discussed previously inthis chapter are not just established in the UnitedStates but all over the globe.Global retail sales dataestimates from Euromonitor International provide alook at how major plant-based segments fare aroundthe world.Euromonitors estimate for the total globalretail sales of plant-based meat,seafood,milk,yogurt,ice cream,and cheese was$29 billion in 2023(Euromonitor does not report on plant-based eggs).Plant-based meatGlobal retail dollar sales of plant-based meat andseafood were estimated to reach$6.4 billion in2023.The majority of those sales are concentratedin Europe and North America.Plant-based meat sales remain small compared toconventional meat sales.For context,Euromonitorestimates total conventional meat retail andfoodservice volume sales in tons to have reached410 million in 2023 compared to plant-based meatachieving just 656,000 tons globally.Plant-based milkGlobal retail dollar sales of plant-based milk wereestimated to reach$18.7 billion in 2023.APAC ledthe way with more than double the estimated salesof the next closest region,North America.Plant-based yogurtLed by Europe,global retail dollar sales estimates ofplant-based yogurt hit$1.6 billion in 2023.Plant-based ice creamGlobal retail dollar sales estimates of plant-basedice cream were$1.4 billion in 2023.Estimated saleswere concentrated primarily in North America andEurope.Plant-based cheeseEstimated global retail dollar sales of plant-basedcheese reached$896 million in 2023,led by NorthAmerica and Europe.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy40Figure 13:Global 2023 plant-based meat andseafood retail dollar sales estimatesSource:Euromonitor International Limited,Staple Foods 2023,Meat&seafood substitutes,retail value RSP incl.sales tax,US$.Figure 14:Global 2023 plant-based milk retaildollar sales estimatesSource:Euromonitor International Limited,Dairy Products andAlternatives 2023,Plant-based milk,retail value RSP incl.salestax,US$.Figure 15:Global 2023 plant-based yogurt retaildollar sales estimatesSource:Euromonitor International Limited,Dairy Products andAlternatives 2023,Plant-based yogurt,retail value RSP incl.salestax,US$.Figure 16:Global 2023 plant-based ice creamretail dollar sales estimatesSource:Euromonitor International Limited,Snacks 2023,Plant-based ice cream,retail value RSP incl.sales tax,US$.Figure 17:Global 2023 plant-based cheese retaildollar sales estimatesSource:Euromonitor International Limited,Dairy Products andAlternatives 2023,Plant-based cheese,retail value RSP incl.salestax,US$.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy41Box 2:Global retail market data collectionEuromonitor is one of a few providers of standardized retail sales data across global regions.The company assembles data through acombination of desk research,store checks,trade surveys,and company analysis.Desk research relies on data and insights from a variety of sources:EuromonitorGovernmental and official sourcesNational and international trade pressNational and international trade associationsIndustry study groups and other semi-official sourcesCompany financials and annual reportsBroker reportsOnline databasesFinancial,business,and mainstream pressIn-store checks and web scraping of e-commerce retailer sites are used to gather data on these key factors:Place:products tracked in all relevant channelsselective and mass,store and non-store.Product:innovations in products,product attributes,pack sizes,and formats.Price:brand price variations across channels and comparison with private-label pricing.Promotion:marketing and merchandising trends,offers,discounts,and tie-ins.Trade surveys supply additional or missing data:Fill gaps in available published data per company.Generate a consensus view of the size,structure,and strategic direction of a category.Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date.Evaluate expert views on current trends and market developments.Company analysis:At a global level,Euromonitors research combines a mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts,broker reports,financial press,and databases.From a data perspective,the aim is to build“top-down”estimates of major playerstotal global and regional sales.At a country level,in line with local reporting requirements,Euromonitor accesses annual accounts,nation-specific company databases,and local company websites.These are all invaluable sources in building a view of each domesticplayers size and position within very specific categories of the industry.Combined,these methods enable Euromonitor to assemble a rigorous dataset that provides a global perspective on sales for variousplant-based categories.Data validation:All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process,at country,regional,and global levels.The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs form a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and countryresearchers.Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thoroughevaluation of data sense and integrity.Upon completion of the country review phase,data is reviewed on a comparative basis atregional and then global levels.Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels,growth rates,patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns,and distribution of sales by channel.Top-down estimates are reviewed againstbottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.Where marked differences are seen between proximate countrymarkets or ones at similar developmental levels,supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/oramend those findings.This process ensures international comparability across the database,that consistent category and subcategorydefinitions have been used,and that all data has been correctly tested.Euromonitor makes sure that possible discrepancies betweendifferent published sources have been reconciled and that their interpretation of opinion and expectation from each countrys tradesources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.Note:Data is based on Euromonitors“meat and seafood substitutes”category,which includes chilled,frozen,and shelf-stable products.Note that data may differ from previous reports.In previous reports,this Euromonitor category also included tofu(now a standalonesubcategory),and previous reports refined graphs to display only estimated plant-based meat sales.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy42U.S.foodservice sales overviewA little over a decade ago,food expenditures comingfrom away-from-home purchases surpassedfood-at-home purchases in the United States.Thistrend continued as consumers shifted their foodspend to foodservice environments,until 2020 whenthe COVID-19 pandemic hit and individuals turnedprimarily to retail environments for food purchases.Fast forward to 2022 and away-from-home foodpurchases recovered to pre-pandemic levels of 2019but the landscape had,nonetheless,changeddramatically.Circanas data on total food operator purchases frombroadline distributors showed that in 2023,bothdollar and pound sales increased 4 percent from2022,a third consecutive year of growth sincedeclines in 2020.When compared to pre-pandemic levels of 2019,dollar sales have grown 28 percent while poundsales are just one percent above previous highs.Thisgap between dollar and pound sales growthrepresents the impact of price increases in thesector over the last four years.According to the U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,inDecember 2022,food-away-from-home prices wereeight percent higher than the same month in 2021.In December of 2023,prices were five percenthigher than 2022 levels.Price increases across food sectors have affectedconsumer behavior in the foodservice channel.In thefirst month of 2023,73 percent of U.S.adults reportednoticing that dining at restaurants cost more than ithad in the past,according to Morning Consult.Foodservice sales,overall,have worked their wayback from 2020 losses but face new challenges.Thetrend of consumers increasingly turning towardout-of-home eating occasions over the long termappears strong,making this channel one toprioritize.U.S.plant-based proteinfoodservice salesIn 2023,the plant-based proteins category infoodservice saw modest dollar and pound salesdeclines,from broadline distributors to operators.These declines follow two years of strong growthafter the major decline in 2020.Conventional meaton the other hand saw dollar sales fall three percentwhile pound sales increased by four percent,a signof price decreases in the latest year.Conversely,dollar sales outpacing pound sales is a sign ofincreased prices.Despite conventional meat prices falling in 2023versus 2022,over the last five years(20192023),average prices per pound for conventional meat haverisen 18 percent while prices for plant-basedproteins are up just 10 percent.In sales by weight,the top product types withinthe plant-based proteins category are tofu(31percent),beef(29 percent),grain/nut/veggieitems(17 percent),chicken(11 percent),andpork(nine percent).Since 2019,analogsproducts meant to replicatethe taste,texture,and experience of conventionalmeathave outpaced more vegetable-forwardplant-based proteins.In 2023,analogs made up50 percent of the total category pound sales,upfrom 39 percent in 2019.Three emerging analog product types includepork patties,chicken nuggets,and chickentenders.All three grew both dollar and poundsales in the double digits in 2023 and now makeup 10 percent of category pound sales,up fromsix percent in 2019.Despite conventional meat dollar sales rising 21percent from 2019 to 2023,pound sales grewjust three percent from 2019 highs,representingprice increases of 18 percent.Price growth hasimpacted on categories across the foodservicechannel over the last five years,particularlyconventional meat.This has resulted in dollarsales often well surpassing previous highs of2019 while pound sales remain relatively flat.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy43U.S.plant-based milk and cheesefoodservice salesIn 2023,GFI commissioned data on plant-basedmilk and plant-based cheese in the foodservicechannel.Plant-based milk has seen impressive growth infoodservice since 2019 with dollar sales up 81percent and pound sales up 55 percent.Meanwhile,conventional milk dollar sales grew 34 percent andpound sales grew eight percent over the sametimeframe.Notably,plant-based milk made up a 12percent share of the total milk market in broadlinedistributor sales in 2023.Plant-based cheese experienced similar trends toplant-based proteins in 2023 with dollars downthree percent and pounds down six percent.Since2019,dollar sales have grown 26 percent whilepound sales have declined nine percent,a sign ofsignificant price increases.Meanwhile,conventionalcheese saw dollars grow 18 percent and poundsthree percent since 2019.Data reveals that U.S.consumers are shifting moreof their food expenditures to foodserviceenvironments.This,in turn,makes the channel ahigh priority for companies to engage with early andoften.Additionally,the industry offers theopportunity to deliver curated experiences around aproduct or brand that can play an important role inbringing consumers in and driving loyalty.Figure 18:Total food market,U.S.broadline distributor foodservice sales,20192023Source:Circana/SupplyTrack,Product Class:Total food.Dollar and pound sales are 12 months ending December 2023 vs 4 prior years2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy44Figure 19:Plant-based proteins market,U.S.broadline distributor foodservice sales,20192023Source:Circana/SupplyTrack,Product Class:Plant-based proteins(analogous meat alternatives,grain/nut/veggie alternatives,tofu/tempeh).Dollar and pound sales are 12 months ending December 2023 vs 4 prior years.Figure 20:Plant-based milk market,U.S.broadline distributor foodservice sales,20192023Source:Circana/SupplyTrack,Product Class:Milk alternatives.Dollar and pound sales are 12 months ending December 2023 vs 4 prior years.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy45Figure 21:Plant-based cheese,U.S.broadline distributor foodservice sales,20192023Source:Circana/SupplyTrack,Product Class:Cheese alternatives.Dollar and pound sales are 12 months ending December 2023 vs 4 prior years.Box 3:U.S.foodservice data collectionDistributor to operator sales dataGFI,in partnership with PBFA,commissioned foodservice sales data from Circana,formerly IRI&NPD,focusing on variousplant-based and conventional categories.Circana collects point-of-sale data from selected broadline distributors for their SupplyTrackTracking Service.This data reflects itemized sales from broadline distributors shipped to foodservice operators.The SupplyTrackservice currently tracks 17 participating broadline distributors,data from 280 categories,and collects 700,000 operator purchasesmonthly.SupplyTrack covers 41 percent of the total foodservice landscape(86 percent of all broadline distribution).Broadlinedistributor sales generally skew toward small-/medium-sized chains and noncommercial operators and away from large chains,however the data reaches both commercial and noncommercial operators across sizes and the following segment types:Commercial:QSR,FSR,Convenience Stores,Food Stores,and Other Retail.Noncommercial:Education,Government,Health Care,Business&Industry,Lodging/Casino,Recreation,and othernoncommercial environments.The SupplyTrack data obtained from Circana covers sales across the U.S.market for the five years 2019,2020,2021,2022,and 2023,all 12 months ending in December.Read GFIs latest deep dive on foodservice sales and consumer insights in the United States.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy46InvestmentsInvestmentsOverviewCompanies primarily involved in plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,or dairy have raised$8.5 billion since2006,with over half of investments coming in thelast three years alone.While 2023 fundraising totals marked a decline from2022 levels for plant-based food companies,otherprimarily venture-backed sectors like fintech alsoexperienced funding declines of around 50 percentyear-over-year(YOY),reflecting the challenges offundraising in a subdued private capitalenvironment.Various industries contended with a tepid privatefunding landscape in 2023,driven by rising interestrates,elevated inflation,and a mixed economicoutlook.As a result,global venture funding across all sectorsfell 42 percent YOY in 2023 to its lowest levels since2017.Climate tech equity investments decreased byas much as 40 percent YOY,despite the sectorreceiving significant government support through theInflation Reduction Act and other policies thathelped to de-risk and fuel investment.Investmentsin food tech startups declined by 61 percent YOY.Plant-based companies raised$907.7 million in2023,representing a 28 percent decrease from the$1.3 billion raised in 2022a lower rate of declinethan overall global venture funding.Not all regions saw decreases in plant-basedinvestments.Plant-based funding in Europe rose forthe second consecutive year to$584 million in 2023,a 74 percent increase from 2022,marking thehighest annual total for the region to date.For thefirst time,European investments comprised morethan half of all invested capital in the plant-basedindustry for the year.The wider alternative protein industry(inclusive ofplant-based,cultivated,and fermentation-enabledproteins)also saw private funding fall in 2023.Whilealternative protein companies raised$15.7 billionfrom 2014 to 2023over half of which was raised in2020 and 2021investments dipped from$2.9billion in 2022 to$1.6 billion in 2023.That said,these totals(and those for plant-based companies)are likely underestimated.Some companies raisedfunds that were not publicly reported under simpleagreements for future equity(SAFE)or bridge roundsto increase financial runway.While certain deals,ingeneral,are not publicly disclosed,we suspect anincreased frequency of under-reporting this yearbased on the larger number of SAFE and bridgerounds and our conversations with marketparticipants.Some of these investments mayeventually be reported as investments in 2024.Even in the face of fundraising challenges,theplant-based industry continued to advance in 2023,with companies around the world hitting key productdevelopment,distribution,and scaling milestones.All the while,companies continued to innovate theirprocesses and products.The challenging private funding environment forplant-based and alternative protein companies maycontinue in the year ahead,especially as interestrates in the United States,Europe,and elsewhere arelikely to remain elevated in 2024.At the same time,alternative proteins and plant-based meat continueto be critical tools in shifting toward more efficientand sustainable methods of meat production.Thisalso makes plant-based meat,seafood,egg,anddairy production an important ESG opportunity,providing potential upside for investors and theindustry.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy48With this backdrop,we expect alternative proteinand plant-based investments to evolve in the comingyears.A major transition took place in 2023 as theoverall venture funding environment moderated afteryears of heightened activity,and the industry is likelyto settle on an adjusted,more realistic path in 2024.In light of the tighter private funding environmentthat is expected to persist into 2024,we expect thealternative protein companies best positioned toattract equity investment will be those that candemonstrate clear pathways to revenue andprofitability.At the same time,long-term debt,grants,andgovernment incentives are essential for companiesto lower their production costs and achieve priceparity as they scale production.To enable alternativeprotein companies to access such funding,they willneed creative solutions in areas such as productoff-take and leveraging government andphilanthropic funding.Fortunately,there are replicable solutions alreadybeing implemented(e.g.,school districts procuringalternative proteins for lunch menus)as well asthose that have been successfully used in otherindustries(e.g.,government loan guarantees andblended philanthropic financing for renewableenergy).Through multi-stakeholder collaboration,these solutions can facilitate the flow of capital intoalternative proteins.Regardless of external market forces,if governmentsand companies are serious about improving foodsecurity,reducing emissions,and achieving theirclimate goals,more alternative protein funding isneeded to help companies scale,improve theirproducts,and reduce their costs.Figure 22:Cumulative and annual investment in plant-based companies(2014-2023)Source:GFI analysis of data from Net Zero Insights.Note:Data has not been reviewed by Net Zero Insights analysts.The total deal count includes deals with undisclosed amounts.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy49Figure 23:Investments in plant-based companies by region(20142023)Source:GFI analysis of data from Net Zero Insights.Note:Data has not been reviewed by Net Zero Insights analysts.The total deal count includes deals with undisclosed amounts.Figure 24:Investments in plant-based meat and seafood:Top 10 countries(20142023)Source:GFI analysis of data from Net Zero Insights.Note:Data has not been reviewed by Net Zero Insights analysts.The total deal count includes deals with undisclosed amounts.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy50Table 7:Deal type summary statisticsSource:GFI analysis of data from Net Zero Insights.Note:Data has not been reviewed by Net Zero Insights analysts.These figures represent summary statistics of invested capital rounds withdisclosed deal amounts.Deal count includes rounds with undisclosed amounts.Due to their limited number and size,this table excludesgeneral crowdfunding,equity,and private equity rounds.It also excludes uncategorized rounds.The total deal count includes deals withundisclosed amounts.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy51Figure 25:2023 key funding roundsSource:GFI analysis of data from Net Zero Insights.Note:Data has not been reviewed by Net Zero Insights analysts.“2023 key funding rounds”includes investments in the 75th percentile orhigher by dollar amount for each funding round category that includes more than three deals.For funding round categories that include threedeals or fewer,all deals are included.For a list of investors who have expressed interest in funding plant-based food,companies canrequest access to GFIs investor directory.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy52MethodologyGFI conducted a global analysis of plant-basedmeat,seafood,egg,and dairy investments usingdata from Net Zero Insights.Our analysis uses a listwe custom-built in Net Zero Insights platform ofcompanies that focus primarily on plant-basedproducts or on providing services to those whoproduce them.Types of companies includedand excludedOur analysis excludes companies involved inplant-based products that are not their corebusinesses as well as companies usingplant-based ingredients other than to create orenable alternative meat,seafood,egg,anddairy products.Some companies included inour list may also offer products or services thatapply to another protein category.For example,the$200 million that Eat Justraised in March 2021 for use across theirproduct lines and the$267 million raised fortheir GOOD Meat division in the funding roundcompleted in September 2021 are categorizedunder cultivated meat.All other Eat Just fundsraised are categorized under plant-based.Cocuus,who produces both cultivated andplant-based meat,was included in theplant-based meat dataset.Companiesfocused primarily on plant molecular farmingare excluded(they are included underfermentation).The Net Zero Insights platform contained 1,009plant-based companies,504 of which have discloseddeals.Of these,363 have deals with publiclydisclosed amounts.Net Zero Insights primarilytracks deals from publicly disclosed sources unlesscompanies claim their profiles on the platform andprovide their own investment information.Becauseour aggregate calculations include only companieswith deals and deal sizes available to Net ZeroInsights,they are conservative estimates.Types of funding includedFor this report,invested capital/investment comprisesaccelerator and incubator funding,angel funding,bridge funding,convertible debt,corporate venture,equity and product crowdfunding,general debtcompleted deals,debt crowdfunding,seed funding,early-stage venture capital,late-stage venture capital,private equity growth/expansion,capitalization,jointventure,and private placements.Liquidity eventscomprise completed mergers,acquisitions,reversemergers,buyouts,leveraged buyouts,spinoffs,andIPOs,while other financing comprises completedsubsequent public share offerings and privateinvestment in public equity.We do not include capitalraised through a SPAC IPO until the entity has mergedwith or acquired a target company.Data providerPlease note that the figures published in this reportmay differ from prior figures published by GFI as weare now using Net Zero Insights as our investmentdata provider and are continually working to improveour dataset.To verify your companys data on theNet Zero Insights platform,claim your companysprofile here and help us ensure we have access tothe fullest,most up-to-date information.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy53Liquidity eventsLiquidity events represent the sale of an equityowners interest in a company typically through amerger,acquisition,buyout,or IPO.Liquidity eventsare common components of industry development,as mergers and acquisitions(M&A)allow companieswith stronger financial footing to acquire firms withvaluable technologies,manufacturing processes,andtalent.That said,liquidity event activity is also highlydependent on the broader economic context.Sixteen liquidity events,also known as exits,tookplace in 2023.The most notable event was MorinagaNutritional Foods acquisition of plant-basedmeat company Tofurky for an estimated$50million.This acquisition enabled Tofurkysbrand,Moocho,to strengthen their integratedsupply chain and for Tofurky to enter their nextstage of growth.Additionally,Above Food,a plant-basedingredient and end-products companyannounced plans to merge with Bite AcquisitionCorp.,a publicly traded special purposeacquisition company(or SPAC).Above Food wasvalued at$319 million in the announced deal.Once complete,the combined entity will tradeon the NYSE under the ticker symbol ABVE.In a year when global M&A activity fell to its lowestlevel in over a decade,the relatively slow pace ofnotable plant-based liquidity events wasrepresentative of the larger funding and M&Aenvironment.The same conditions that led tofundraising difficultieslike economic concerns anda tight financing environmentalso contributed tolimited M&A activity.While we expect plant-based liquidity event activityto accelerate in the coming years,as seen in thetrajectories of other transformative innovations likeelectric vehicles,the rate at which it does so will alsohinge on conditions like interest rates,economicsentiment,and views of the sector.Other financingSome public companies pursue financing paths suchas subsequent public share offerings and privateinvestment in public equity(PIPE)deals.Four such deals took place in 2023.The two mostnotable were by plant-based companiesBettermoo(d)and Sensible Hot Dogs,who raised$7.4 million and$12 million in post-IPO equityfinancing,respectively.As more plant-basedcompanies begin trading publicly,we expect to see ahigher number of other financing rounds.Note:Unless otherwise cited,all of the informationpresented in this Investments section is from GFIsanalysis of data from the Net Zero Insights platform.Please note that aggregated data has not beenreviewed by Net Zero analysts.Disclaimer:The Good Food Institute is not a licensedinvestment or financial advisor,and nothing in theState of the Industry Report series is intended orshould be construed as investment advice.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy54Figure 26:Plant-based companies global liquidity events(20142023)Source:GFI analysis of data from Net Zero Insights.Note:Data has not been reviewed by Net Zero Insights analysts.2023 State of the Industry Report/Plant-based meat,seafood,eggs,and dairy55Science andtechnologyScience and technologyOverviewEstablishing taste and price parity for plant-basedfoods compared to their conventional animal-basedcounterparts remained top priorities for researchersand manufacturers in 2023.Among the many ways the industry advanced towardthose goals included:impressive gains in new farmingtechniques that optimize plant protein cultivation,innovative uses of agricultural by-products,andresearch to create processes and ingredients thatmore closely mimic the sensory attributes ofconventional meat,seafood,egg,and dairy products.Additional challenges that continue to affect theplant-based protein industry include manufacturingcapacity and scale.Workforce development,supplychain bottlenecks,and limited production capacityhave affected the industrys ability to scale.Theindustry relies heavily on science and technology tohelp solve these and other hurdles to bringplant-based proteins to the table.In 2023companies focused on:Adapting diverse crop cultivation stra
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Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality1Modelling greenhouse gas fluxes from Chinas agriculture,forestry and land-use sector:Gaps and recommendations4Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutralityMarch 2023May 2023Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality2Acknowledgements Abstract1.Introduction2.The role for Chinas food and land use systems in achieving its carbon neutrality ambition2.1.Understanding emissions from Chinas food and land use systems2.2.Tackling emissions from Chinas food and land use systems3.Chinas food and land use policy landscape and carbon neutrality3.1.Institutional barriers3.2.Policy barriers4.Way forward:Towards a systemic approach to reducing emissions from Chinas food and land use systems 4.1.Actions for Chinese policymakers4.2.Actions for research institutes4.3.Actions for NGOsAnnex I:Estimated GHG contributions by Chinas food and land use systemsReferences3457 7 12 15 151719 19202122 23ContentsTapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality3AuthorsZhaohai BaiCenter for Agricultural Resources ResearchInstitute of Genetic and Developmental BiologyChinese Academy of SciencesClara DouzalSustainable Development Solutions Network(SDSN)Shenggen FanAcademy of Global Food Economics and PolicyChina Agricultural UniversityHelen DingWorld Resources Institute(WRI)Aline MosnierSustainable Development Solutions Network(SDSN)Seth CookFood and Land Use Coalition(FOLU)Haijun ZhaoFood and Land Use Coalition(FOLU)FOLU is grateful to Norways International Climate and Forest Initiative(NICFI),which funded this publication.The authors acknowledge the comments provided by Min Hu(Innovative Green Development Program,China),Patty Fong(Global Alliance for the Future of Food),Dedy Mahardika(CDP&SBTi),Jingfeng Chang(Zhejiang University,China),Scarlett Benson(SBTi)and Olaf Erenstein(WRI).This paper also benefited from the several stakeholder consultation meetings since October 2020 that FOLU China held with leading experts,including Guido Schmidt-Traub(Systemiq),Jordan Poncet(SDSN),Jixi Gao(ECRL,Ministry of Ecology and Environment),Shuo Li(Greenpeace),Lin Li(WWF),and Melissa Pinfield(Meridian Institute).Thanks also to Fiona Hinchcliffe for excellent editing,and to Regency Creatives for superb design work.The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funders or associated institutions.The usual disclaimers apply.AcknowledgementsSuggested citation:Helen Ding,Aline Mosnier,Clara Douzal,Zhaohai Bai,Haijun Zhao,Seth Cook and Shenggen Fan,2023.Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality.The Food and Land Use Coalition,London.AbstractChinas current long-term decarbonization pathways towards its 2060 carbon neutrality target primarily focus on energy and energy-related sectors.The climate mitigation potential in food and land use systems is largely overlooked owing to a dearth of scientific evidence and lack of a holistic policy framework.Based on a review of the literature and databases,this report shows that between 2005 and 2015,on-farm agricultural production was by far the largest source of emissions from Chinas food and land use systems(44%),followed by post-production and consumption(31%).The report identifies supply-and demand-oriented mitigation measures and associated co-benefits in Chinas food and land use systems,and also explores Chinas food and land use policy landscape to identify several institutional and policy barriers to carbon neutrality.China needs to develop coherent policies that will address food and land use emissions in a holistic manner while taking into consideration food security,health,environment protection,biodiversity,and climate targets.Actions towards these targets in turn will contribute to greater climate resilience,improved local livelihoods and human health,and long-term economic prosperity.To assist and facilitate Chinas transition from its current sector-focused approach to a holistic,systems approach,we propose actions for policymakers,researchers,and NGOs.Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality4Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality51.IntroductionThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes special report of August 2021(IPCC,2021)presents new evidence suggesting that the 1.5C target limit set out in the Paris Agreement will likely be reached or exceeded between 2030 and early 2050 unless concerted action is taken to significantly reduce greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions in the next decade(Levin et al.,2021).The first round of global commitments made in the Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)are not enough to limit global warming to 1.5C(Climate Watch,2021),and are more likely to contribute to 2.5C to 3C of warming by 2100(Rogelj,et al.,2018).To stay on track for the 1.5C target,countries will need to reduce the predicted 2030 GHG emissions by 55%(UNEP,2021).However,the revised NDC commitments made prior to the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties(COP26)in November 2021 would only amount to a 7.5%reduction.The agriculture and land use sector,commonly referred to as agriculture,forestry,and other land uses(AFOLU),was responsible for 1012 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent(GtCO2e),about 25%of the annual total GHG flux(net emissions),between 2007 and 2016(IPCC,2019).Approximately half of these come from agriculture and half from land use,land use change and forestry(LULUCF)(IPCC,2019).If emissions associated with the global food system are included,the food and land use system is responsible for one-third of global GHG emissions(IPCC,2019;Roe et al.,2019;Tubiello et al.,2021;see also Box 1).It is estimated that transforming the land use sector and deploying measures in agriculture,forestry,wetlands and bioenergy could deliver over 30%(or 15 GtCO2e per year)of the global mitigation needed in 2050(Roe et al.,2019).More specifically,these measures would include:(1)reducing GHG emissions by avoiding deforestation and degradation,improving agricultural practices,shifting to more plant-based diets and reducing food loss and waste;and(2)removing carbon through restoration,improving forest management and agroforestry,enhancing soil carbon sequestration,and deploying bioenergy and carbon capture and storage(BECCS).Despite their large share of GHG emissions and their potential to sequester carbon,food and land use systems have not received sufficient attention from national policymakers(FOLU and SDSN,2021).Few countries have provided clarity on their anticipated land-based mitigation(Fyson and Jeffery,2019),and the full potential of forests for addressing climate change is largely untapped(WWF et al.,2020).1 On 28 October 2021,China released its revised NDC(UNFCCC,2021).It aims to reach peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.The carbon neutrality goal was a political commitment of the central government,which shows the countrys ambition on climate mitigation.To achieve this ambitious goal,it is essential that Chinas emissions from all sectors peak quickly.If this does not happen,Chinas cumulative emissions will be higher,creating substantial challenges for achieving carbon neutrality before 2060(Energy Foundation China,2020).Consequently,in the coming years,climate mitigation targets must be determined for all economic sectors based on sector specific research,including for food and land use systems.The significance of emissions from this sector is historically overshadowed by other key industry sectors such as energy,transport,1 However,the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties(COP26)in Glasgow could be a turning point,as forests were front and center throughout the conference.Among the significant announcements made at COP26 was the Glasgow Leaders Declaration on Forests and Land Use,in which 137 countries committed to collectively end forest loss and land degradation by 2030(Masood and Tollefson,2021).Such actions relevant to food and land-use systems should be an integral part of NDCs and contribute to the carbon neutrality goal.manufacturing,and construction.Hence,pursuing the national carbon neutrality goal presents a unique opportunity for China to develop an integrated approach by incorporating the food and land use system into its decarbonization pathways.In this regard,this paper highlights the climate mitigation potential of the food and land use system and outlines concrete actions that can be taken to achieve it,focusing on Chinas domestic climate footprint.2 The paper draws from secondary data,the literature and workshops with the Food and Land Use Coalitions(FOLU)China network of academics and civil society working in food and land use systems during the course of the research period(between 2020 and 2021).The paper first explores the role for Chinas food and land use systems in achieving its carbon neutrality ambition,including GHG accounting and mitigation options.It then goes on to explore Chinas food and land use policy landscape in relation to its carbon neutrality ambition.Based on the analysis and the feedback provided by workshop participants,the paper ends with specific actions for various stakeholders,including policymakers,researchers,and NGOs.2 While it can be argued that the trade dimension and international climate footprint is also critical,this paper maintains a narrower focus on domestic emissions in order to illustrate how to account for AFOLU emissions vs other sectoral emissions.Transboundary emissions are complex and deserve a separate treatment,supported by modelling results.It is also important to note that emission reductions in other countries through decreased trade with China are not counted towards Chinas carbon neutrality goal,or towards any other countries goals for that matter.Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality6Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality7Globally by 2050,the agriculture sector is likely to have the largest residual emissions(i.e.,emissions remaining to be tackled)of any sector(IPCC,2014).This is also the case for China(AGFEP et al.,2021).A recent study has suggested that even after accounting for a low-carbon transition in the energy system,plus the potential of carbon capture technology,there would remain between 0.3 billion and 3.1 billion tons of carbon to be sequestered in China every year to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060(Yu et al.,2021).To this end,an integrated approach is needed to significantly cut emissions and increase carbon sinks in food and land use systems(Roe et al.,2019).The Food and Land Use Coalition has put forward ten critical transitions needed to transform food systems(from production to consumption)in order to systemically address major global challenges such as GHG emissions,biodiversity and natural habitat loss,and malnutrition(FOLU,2019).Such an approach will also be important to set China on course for carbon neutrality by 2060,while meeting other key objectives such as food security,environmental health,human health,biodiversity conservation,and building more resilient food systems in the face of climate change and other disasters.However,a clear definition of system boundaries is lacking in China.To address GHG emissions in Chinas food and land use systems,an essential first step is to clearly define the system boundaries and ensure all emissions within the system are properly accounted for.In this section,we put forward a definition of the boundaries of Chinas food and land use systems for total emission accounting,following the IPCC guidelines.We also explore the potential for reducing emissions linked to consumption by tackling food loss,waste and unsustainable diets,as these measures can help China to peak emissions in its food and land use systems sooner and bring the countrys carbon neutral goal within reach.2.1.Understanding emissions from Chinas food and land use systems The term food and land use systems covers“every factor in the ways land is used and food is produced,stored,packed,processed,traded,distributed,marketed,consumed and disposed of”(FOLU,2019).As such,emissions from these systems should not only encompass AFOLU emissions and sequestration related to food and non-food production,but also GHG emissions from energy,industry,transportation,and waste sectors related to food and agricultural production,processing,packaging,retail,transportation and the end of life of food products(Figure 1 and Box 1).2.The role for Chinas food and land use systems in achieving its carbon neutrality ambitionTapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality8Box 1.Food and land use systems are responsible for one third of global anthropogenic GHG emissionsOf all the emission sources from food and land use systems,AFOLU activities such as agriculture,deforestation and land use change contribute the most,accounting for 71%of total system emissions at the global level(Crippa et al.,2021).The large majority of the AFOLU emissions are related to food production(agriculture)and related land use and land use change(LULUC).In comparison,non-food crops-related emissions only represent 2%of AFOLU emissions.Non-food crops refer to crops that are grown to produce goods for manufacturing,for example fiber for clothing,rather than food for consumption.Of the estimated 18 GtCO2e attributable to the global food and land use system(about 30%of global total GHG emissions),about one-third comes from agriculture,one-third from LULUCF,and one-third from energy use in the food system,including the food production stages,input production,distribution,processing(Crippa et al.,2021).In other words,while AFOLU3 emissions are fully encompassed in food and land use systems,other IPCC GHG inventory categories(IPCC,2006)also partly contribute to food and land use systems emissions.This makes it challenging to account for them all accurately.Based on the IPCC guidelines for GHG inventories,in this study we include the following(sub-)categories:LULUCF:all GHG emissions and sequestration from land use,land use change,and forestry.Agriculture:all GHG emissions and removals from agriculture within the farm gate.Energy:primarily GHG emissions related to energy use for food production and transportation along the entire food value chain,including on-farm energy use,as well as food consumption,packaging,processing,retail and transport.Emission savings from fossil energy substitution by bioenergy also fall under this category.Industry:only GHG emissions related to ammonia for fertilizer production.Waste:only GHG emissions from decomposition of food waste in landfill.The advantages of using the IPCC guidelines for GHG inventories are that we ensure that there is no omission or double counting of GHG emissions,and that this is comparable with other countries.However,access to sufficient information to isolate the emissions from energy,industry and waste disposal related to food and land use systems can be challenging.3 According to the UNFCCC classification,emissions from the AFOLU sector consist of two components:(1)emissions from agriculture,i.e.methane(CH4)and nitrous oxide(N2O),emissions from agricultural soils and livestock(Appendix Table),but excluding emissions already accounted for in other reporting categories,such as on-farm energy use;and(2)emissions from and sequestration related to land use,land-use change and forestry(LULUCF).Reporting categories for LULUCF differ between Annex 1 and Non-Annex 1 parties of the UNFCCC(Appendix Table 1).China is a non-Annex 1 country,but uses the Annex 1 categories for its historical GHG emissions reporting to the UNFCCC.Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality9Finally,food demand is an external driver of total GHG emissions in the food and land use system(Figure 1),as changes in demand can directly influence the inputs and outputs of the food production system and associated emissions.For instance,lower overall food demand reduces agricultural production and associated GHG emissions.Similarly,dietary shifts towards more plant-based diets will reduce foods carbon footprint.Figure 1.System boundaries for accounting for GHG emissions and sequestration from food and land use Note:The intersection of the various circles shows overlaps between different definitions:for example,the intersection of the yellow AFOLU circle and the green food system circle corresponds to the GHG sources from AFOLU that are considered in the food system total accounting.Thus,emissions from forest removals in remaining forest land are excluded from the food systems accounting(but included in the land use systems accounting as part of LULUCF),as these are not typically related to crop and livestock production.Food and land use systems encompass all emissions and sequestration from AFOLU plus GHG emissions related to the food supply chain activities in the energy,industry,and waste categories.AFOLU:agriculture,forestry,and other land uses;Emission savings from fossil energy substitution by bioenergy;IPPU:industrial processes and product use including processing,refrigeration and solid fuel cookstoves;LULUCF:land use,land use change and forestrySource:Authors,based on Crippa et al.,(2021)and the IPCC Guidelines for GHG Inventories(IPCC,2006)LULUCFFood systemAFOLUDriven by food demandIndustry(IPPU)WasteFood and land-use systemsChanges in carbon in non-agricultural land;land conversion to cities;Harvested wood productsAgriculture Energy used to produce and transport food Food waste decomposition on landfills;wastewater treatment due to fecesAmmonia productionNon-food and non-land related energy useConsumption,packaging,processing,production,retail,and transportMineral,metal,high-value chemicals and methanol productionOther solid waste disposal on land,wastewater treatment,waste incinerationLand use,land use change and soil CO2 removals related to agricultural landNon-food cropsFood crops and livestockEnteric fermentation;manure management;agricultural soils;agricultural waste burning residues;indirect N2O emissions;otherEnergyBioenergyTapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality10Building on this accounting method and the latest FAOSTAT data(FAOSTAT,2022),FOLUs partners in China have estimated the GHG emissions from Chinas food and land use system.The food and land use system emissions and removals are classified into six main categories(Figure 2):1)Emissions from agricultural production(methane-CH4,nitrous oxide-N2O),such as from rice production,livestock enteric fermentation,and fertilizer use;as well as emissions(CO2)from direct on-farm energy use(including diesel for tractors and transport,etc.);2)CO2 emissions from land conversion;3)CO2 emissions from agricultural pre-production activities,such as manufacturing of fertilizers and on-farm electricity use;4)CO2 emissions from the post-harvest food supply chain,including food packaging,processing,transport and storage,consumption and food wholesale and retail;5)CO2 emissions from the food system waste disposal;6)CO2 net removals from forest ecosystems in China.Our analysis revealed that total net GHG emissions from Chinas food and land use system(including net removals from forests)averaged 1,164 MtCO2e every year between 2005 and 2015,or 10%of total emissions in China.4 Figure 2 shows that 52%of the GHG emissions from Chinas food and land use systems are CH4 and N2O emissions.On-farm CH4 and N2O emissions largely come from enteric fermentation,rice cultivation and synthetic fertilizer applications.Taken together,on-farm agricultural production represented the largest portion(44%)of all GHG emissions from Chinas food and land use system.Post-production(food packaging,processing,delivering)and consumption represent the second largest share,at 31%.Pre-production activities were responsible for 14%of emissions.When disaggregating these into component subcategories,the food consumption sector was by far the largest emitter,followed by food waste disposal,enteric fermentation,synthetic nitrogen fertilizer application,fertilizer manufacture and rice cultivation(FAOSTAT,2022).Finally,carbon removals(or sequestration)from forests(mainly from major afforestation efforts undertaken in the past two decades)play a significant role in mitigating GHG emissions from food and land use systems.Without forest carbon sinks,the annual combined gross emissions from the food and land use systems would have been 1,875 MtCO2e,or 17%of Chinas total GHG emissions.4 Total net GHG emissions from China(incl.LULUCF)are estimated at 11.11 GtCO2e in 2015(https:/www.climatewatchdata.org/).Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality11Figure 2.Estimated GHG emissions and removals by Chinas food and land use systems in 2015 Source:FAOSTAT,2022.(See Annex 1 in this report for detailed emission data)GHG Emissions in 2015(1000kt)Food system waste disposalPost-production&consumptionPre-productionAgricultural productionN2OCH4CO211D1H2 A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11B1C1C2D1D2D3D4D5F1E1GHG removals viaforest in China5004003002001000-100-200-400-300-600-500-800-700GHG emissions generated in Chinas food and land-use systemsShare of aggregate foodand land use emissionsGHG Emissions in 2015(1000kt)Food system waste disposalPost-production&consumptionPre-productionAgricultural productionN2OCH4CO211D1H2 %SubsectorsA1Crop residuesRice cultivationBurning crop-residuesEnteric fermentationManure managementManure left on pastureManure applied to soilsA2A3A4A5A6A7Synthetic fertilizersDrained organic soilsOn-farm energy useSavanna firesFertilizers manufacturingOn-farm electricity useA8A9A10A11C1C2Food packagingFood retailFood household consumptionFood transportFood systems waste disposalD2D3D4D5E1Forest carbon sequestration(excl.emissions from forest fires)F1Food processingD1Land conversionB1Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality122.2.Tackling emissions from Chinas food and land use systemsThe analysis above provides a critical foundation for better understanding emissions from Chinas food and land use systems by disaggregating and accounting for the various categories.It highlights that even when taking into account removals from afforestation,the residual net emissions from food and land use systems are still substantial.This suggests that China must strengthen its efforts to cut emissions from its food and land use systems while continuing to explore options that will enlarge its carbon sequestration capacity to counterbalance the residual emissions.Available mitigation options may include the following:Reducing GHG emissions.China could accelerate investment in new techniques and practices that can significantly cut emissions from agricultural production,from the value chains for food supply and consumption,and from total agricultural energy use.Increasing carbon removals.China could continue to explore solutions for increasing carbon sinks in forests,croplands and grazing lands to neutralize the residual net emissions from agriculture.Despite the clear policy target to increase forest stocks by 6 billion m3 by 2030(UNFCCC,2021),expanding forest cover to sequester more carbon is limited by land suitability and other competing land uses,such as food production and urban sprawl.Therefore,more research is needed into the potential for increasing soil carbon content in croplands and grazing lands through climate smart agricultural practices,such as no-till/minimum tillage,agroforestry,silvopasture,rotational grazing,etc.Reducing GHG emissions and increasing carbon removals in food and land use systems are critical for Chinas carbon neutrality ambition.But such supply-oriented measures can only go so far and need to be complemented by demand-oriented measures.Food demand in terms of quantity and quality is the key driver of GHG emissions from food and land use systems.Managing dietary shifts and tackling excess and wasteful food consumption are therefore critical for Chinas carbon neutrality ambition.This includes tackling food loss and waste(FLW)and unhealthy diets.Globally,FLW generates 4.4 GtCO2e annually,or about 8%of total anthropogenic GHG emissions(EC,JRC/PBL,2012).This means that the contribution of food waste emissions to global warming is nearly equivalent to 87%of global road transport emissions(IPCC,2014).In China,FLW is becoming a major sustainability challenge.A recent study found that 27%of food produced for human consumption in the country(3494Mt)is lost or wasted annually;45%of this is associated with post-harvest handling and storage and 13%with out-of-home consumption activities(Xue et al.,2021).At the same time,China is facing shrinking arable land for growing food,largely driven by land degradation about 40%of its soil is already moderately or severely degraded(Patton,2014).This means China must address FLW to increase food security and reduce pressure on nature through agricultural expansion(CCICED SPS,2021).The Chinese Government has already made agricultural production and food security a top priority in recent years.With increasingly limited resources,an agricultural policy approach focused on reducing waste and more efficient use of food is necessary to restrain growing GHG emissions(Hawkins et al.,2017).Substantial changes in dietary patterns have occurred in China over the past decades,with increased consumption of animal-sourced foods;refined grains;and highly processed,high-sugar,and high-fat foods.For example,pork consumption per capita has quadrupled since 1971 and beef consumption has expanded fivefold(He,et al.,2018),generating multiple environmental and health consequences.First,animal-based diets are associated with higher GHG emissions(Figure 3).In China,CH4 and N2O emissions from the agricultural sectors increased by 24tween 1996 and 2010(Li,et al.,2015.);the Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality13water footprint tripled from 1961 to 2003(Liu,et al.,2008);and agricultural land use increased by 50tween 1961 and 2014(FAOSTAT,2015).Rising demand for livestock products is projected to require between 3 and 12 million hectares(MHa)of additional pastureland in China between 2020 and 2050,resulting in 2%to 16%in agricultural GHG emissions depending on the scenario(Zhao et al.,2021).Figure 3.Global GHG emissions from food across the supply chainSource:Poore and Nemecek(2018)kgCO2e per kilogram of foodBeef(beef herd)Beef(dairy herd)Shrimps(farmed)Pig meatPoultry meatFish(farmed)EggsRiceMilkWheat&ryeMaizeBananasPeasTofuLamb&muttonCheese50kg40kg30kg20kg10kg0kg252121127.26.15.14.5432.81.41.10.80.860FarmProcessingLand use changeAnimal feedRetailTransportPackagingSecondly,dietary shifts can aggravate nutritional and health issues,especially those linked to overweight and obesity.Recent national survey data suggest that more than half of Chinese adults are now overweight or obese,with obesity rates likely to increase further(Pan,et al.,2021)leading also to greater rates of diabetes.On the other hand,increasing plant-based food intake is associated with a reduced risk of diabetes.A recent study examined 37,985 participants from the Henan rural areas and found that diets higher in plant foods and lower in animal foods were associated with a 4%lower risk of type 2 diabetes(Yang,et al.,2021).Another study has shown that replacing red meat with soy could avoid 57,000 premature deaths annually related to small particulate matter(PM2.5),with the adoption of the Chinese Dietary Guideline(CDG)and EAT-Lancet diets even preventing over one million PM2.5-related premature deaths annually(Guo et al.,2022).Clearly,reducing the overall amount of animal-based food consumption and shifting towards healthy dietary patterns could potentially generate important environmental and health co-benefits in China.But experts also flag potential trade-offs related to dietary shifts:for instance,replacing red meat with soy may be associated with increased water use and GHGs(Guo et al.,2022).Hence,the adoption of a holistic approach to managing food and land use systems could help enable larger health-environment co-benefits.Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality14Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality15Since the announcement of the 2060 carbon neutrality goal,various Chinese ministries have started to explore decarbonization pathways in their sectors.By April 2021,the National Energy Administration,Ministry of Housing and Urban and Rural Development and Ministry of Ecology and Environment had issued several documents and guidelines on how energy,housing and construction,transportation,financing and other relevant departments should incorporate the carbon neutrality target into their development processes.However,the role of food and land use systems in climate mitigation has not yet received as much attention as these sectors from Chinese policymakers in recent years.This is perhaps partially because of the complexity and dearth of scientific evidence on the topic,and partially because food and land use related GHG emissions are often attributed to agricultural activities alone.While the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs(MARA)has started to develop Chinas first action plan(in early 2021)to guide the agricultural sector to achieve carbon neutrality(MARA,2021),there is no systemic approach to assessing the GHG emissions from the entire food and land use system.While some discussions have been held on food,agriculture and carbon neutrality,no detailed plans have been made.The root causes of the current situation lie in the system barriers at institutional level and the lack of policy coherence between different ministries involved in food production and the management of food distribution and consumption.3.1 Institutional barriers China lacks a single institution that can take the lead in coordinating emission mitigation work within the agricultural sector,and more broadly in the entire food and land use system.Despite the presence of several cross-sectoral co-ordination mechanisms on agriculture,climate change,and carbon neutrality,GHG mitigation in the agricultural sector has been largely overlooked in the past.To bridge this gap,the Agriculture and Rural Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Research Institute was established under the Chinese Academy of Agriculture Science(CAAS)on 29 September 2021.The new institute,composed of 24 teams,will explore GHG emission reduction and removal potential in planting and breeding techniques,soil carbon,renewable energy,etc.;develop strategic,forward-looking,systemic and innovative research;and facilitate domestic and international collaboration(CAAS,2021).This will hopefully lead to broader collaborations between agriculture and other sectors in the food and land use system.China also lacks a holistic system that treats food and land use systems as a part of the governance structure connecting food production,distribution,and consumption.For instance,MARA manages all issues related to agricultural land and farmers welfare,but not food consumption or diets.Consequently,food security and production are given more attention than consumption.At the same time,environment and climate change impacts of food and land use systems are not adequately handled,since the Ministry of Ecology and Environment(MEE)which took charge of both issues 3.Chinas food and land use policy landscape and carbon neutralityTapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality16between 2018-2021(Box 2)lacks capacity on agriculture and food issues.One potential long-term solution to fill these institutional gaps would be to expand MARAs remit to include food and diet related issues,similar to the UKs Department for Environment,Food&Rural Affairs.This would allow China to develop more holistic policies and plans that tackle GHG emission reductions right through from food production to distribution and consumption.To make this happen,an effective first step would be to bring MARA and the State Administration for Market Regulation(SAMR)together to develop a coordinated decarbonization roadmap for food supply and market development.To achieve its ambitious carbon neutrality target,Chinas most powerful agency,the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC),has regained its power over climate policies since early 2021(Box 2).However,this agency is also responsible for energy and industrial policies(Bloomberg News,2021),leading to institutional bias towards energy and industry and the underrepresentation of MARA and food and land use systems as a whole.Consequently,although many research institutions in China have begun to shift their focus towards carbon neutrality strategies,and numerous research reports have been published,most of the work is focused on energy,industry,and the environment(such as air and water pollution control,and ecology).Carbon neutrality pathways for food and land use systems are still to be developed.Box 2.The shifting mandates of NDRC and MEEThe National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC)had overseen Chinas climate policies until 2018,when the government transferred its climate change department and related responsibilities to the organization now known as the Ministry of Ecology and Environment(MEE),which is less powerful than NDRC.Since President Xis announcement of the carbon neutrality goal,some functionalities of the climate change department have been transferred back to NDRC.NDRC is believed to be better placed than MEE to induce the type of structural change needed to achieve the 2060 goal,as it sets energy and industrial policies including approving power projects and deciding on subsidies.Under the new arrangement,NDRC will take the lead in charting the broad plan for cutting emissions,as well as roadmaps for cleaning up carbon-intensive sectors such as power generation and metals production.Meanwhile,MEE will oversee the carbon market,emissions reporting,and international cooperation.In addition,current research on transforming Chinas food systems primarily focuses on food security.Despite Chinas success in reducing the total undernourished population to less than 2.5%by 2020(FAO,et al.,2021),hunger still prevails among the poor(Si and Scott,2019).Understanding the synergies and trade-offs between these two policy goals food security and carbon neutrality in food and land use systems is therefore extremely important for proposed food system transformations in China.This will require relevant research institutes to break down silos and institutional barriers to foster multidisciplinary collaboration which can spark more innovation in research and affect policy implementation at the local level.Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality17The final institutional issue is the lack of bottom-up mechanisms to engage the private sector effectively,especially the small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)along the food value chains.To date few companies in China have made solid commitments and actions on carbon neutrality.This is partly because the top-down approach imposed by the Chinese Government has excluded the small agricultural and food companies that collectively could play a significant role in reducing GHG emissions.These SMEs have very limited capacity to invest in their own climate and sustainability strategies.Hence,government policy and fiscal support to these SMEs will be essential not only to help remove the institutional barriers to their participation in the sustainable transition,but also to accelerate innovations within these companies to significantly cut emissions and increase profit margins.3.2.Policy barriersIn the absence of a holistic approach,agricultural policies in China will not be able to adequately address GHG emissions from the whole food and land use system.The supply side of the food and land use system has dominated Chinas agricultural policies,which primarily focus on agricultural productivity and food quality and safety.GHG emissions on the supply side can be addressed together with other policies that deal with food production efficiency or chemical inputs that negatively affect food quality.However,China lacks effective governance and coherent policies on the consumption side to address the drivers of food production expansion and intensification that could undermine the carbon neutrality goal if not managed properly,such as food loss and waste and unhealthy dietary patterns.Although the new Anti-Food Waste Law has entered into force and a new National Plan for Food and Nutrition Development has also been developed,their primary goals are not to achieve carbon neutrality.The climate mitigation potential of dietary shifts,and reducing food waste in households,hotels,and restaurants,is still not well captured in current climate policies.Therefore,a priority action for researchers in China is to promote demand-side policy research to address food security,food loss and waste,healthy diets and carbon neutrality in a more coherent way.Second,there is also a lack of specific policies and national plans to address non-CO2 GHG emissions in the food and land use system.Most of the GHG emissions from agricultural production in China consist of CH4(from livestock and rice production)and N2O(from intensive use of nitrogen fertilizer to boost crop productivity and concentrate feed to intensify livestock production)(FAOSTAT,2022).In 2012,although crop farming and animal husbandry only contributed 7.9%of all Chinas GHG emissions,they contributed over 50%of total non-CO2 emissions(MEE,2020).The Chinese Government has shown it intends to strengthen control over non-CO2 emissions,beginning with gradually phasing out HFCs(hydrofluorocarbons)ahead of the 2029 deadline set for developing countries to reduce or eliminate HFCs(Eco.gov.,2021).HFCs are super greenhouse gases,manufactured for use in refrigeration,air conditioning,foam blowing,aerosols,fire protection and solvents.Stronger policy control over HFCs will have direct impacts on many sectors involved in food supply,from post-harvest storage to food distribution and retail.A third gap is the lack of an entry point to integrate a food and land use system approach into the current climate policy system.China has adopted a 1 N climate policy system(Carbon Brief,2021),in which 1 refers to the overarching plan for all sectors and N refers to the specific sectoral plans,such as energy,manufacturing,construction,etc.Recently,the Ministry of Agriculture has issued an“Agricultural emission reduction and sequestration plan”as one N of the 1 N overarching plan,which may offer a new opportunity for developing an integrated climate policy to reduce emissions from food and land use systems.Finally,evolving international trade relations and policies for agricultural commodities will directly affect Chinas domestic food production and related GHG emissions.Chinas food demand is projected to keep growing in the coming decades,increasing its reliance further on food and feed imports(OECD,2019).However,trade interruptions during the recent China-US trade war,and new Chinese policies for imported soft commodities since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21(OECD,2021),have increased pressure for domestic food production in China and will likely push the country to grow more soybeans for livestock feed.On the other hand,in its recently revised NDC submitted to the UNFCCC at COP26,China included a clear target for increasing its forest stock,effectively limiting agricultural expansion in the future(UNFCCC,2021).As such,total production gains will have to be achieved by further intensifying agricultural production,including increasing input use efficiency in already high-input farming systems and managing associated GHG emissions.Therefore,as Chinese researchers adapt and roll out solutions to satisfy Chinas current and future food demand,it is important to prioritize low-carbon solutions(e.g.transition to renewable energy,increase input use efficiency and reduce fertilizer inputs,etc.)and explore alternative options that can increase agricultural carbon sinks.Farming practices such as agroforestry,silvopasture,no-till,crop diversification,rotational grazing,etc.are often referred to as regenerative agricultural practices.If implemented well,they can help regenerate soil health,increase soil carbon content,and protect farm biodiversity,but their important role has not yet attracted sufficient attention(GAFF,2021).Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality18Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality19This paper has explored the role for Chinas food and land use systems in achieving its carbon neutrality ambition.It calls for more to be done to understand the associated sources of GHG emissions,as well as to identify supply-and demand-oriented mitigation measures and associated co-benefits.The paper has also explored Chinas food and land use policy landscape and identified several institutional and policy barriers to achieving carbon neutrality.There is thus still a lot to be done,in both the research and policy domains,to systemically address GHG emissions from Chinas food and land use systems.A priority is to provide science-based evidence for the potential of a holistic food and land use system approach to addressing climate mitigation needs.Further investment in research in this area could help Chinese national and local governments to develop better informed policies.It would also accelerate the adoption of an integrated food and land use approach in China as an important strategy to reduce emissions from agriculture and offset carbon emissions from other sectors.To assist and facilitate the transition from the current agriculture-focused approach to a holistic food and land use system approach,and based on our analysis and associated workshops,we conclude here with specific actions for various stakeholders,including policymakers,researchers,and NGOs.Together,these recommendations will help create the enabling environment for all stakeholders,including the private and public sectors,to deliver emission reductions targets at the system level.4.1.Actions for Chinese policymakersClimate policies in China have historically been led by two government agencies:NDRC,which focuses on economic development;and MEE,whose remit is environmental improvement(Box 2).Although these departments may consult each other during policy-making processes,there is often a lack of clear intragovernmental collaboration and policy coherence when developing climate strategies and policy actions across different ministries.China is not alone in this problem,which is a common issue in almost all countries around the world,especially Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia,Malaysia,and Thailand.Sometimes there can even be potential conflicts of interest between several important institutional players(e.g.MEE and NDRC)that can influence climate policies and strategies.4.Way forward:Towards a systemic approach to reducing emissions from Chinas food and land use systemsTapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality20Therefore,China can:Ensure alignment of policy goals across different sectors.Improve collaboration among different government agencies,for instance by bringing MARA and SAMR together to develop a coordinated decarbonization roadmap for food supply and market development.Develop policies to ensure that the pursuit of carbon neutrality targets does not overshadow equally important goals such as food security,nutrition,human health,soil health,water quality and availability,rural livelihoods,etc.This requires systemic thinking to consider all possible solutions and their impacts,including potential trade-offs both within and between different sectors.Identify common goals among different ministries and deepen analyses on the synergies and trade-offs between different agricultural policy goals.These policy goals may include carbon neutrality,food security,addressing soil degradation,reducing soil and water pollution,curbing water use for irrigation,farm biodiversity improvement,building farms climate resilience,etc.Adopt a holistic approach,such as FOLUs 10 critical transitions(FOLU,2019),to systemically address GHG emissions in the entire food and land use system,and promote sustainable food system transitions in all their various facets.Promote nature-based solutions(e.g.agroforestry and other regenerative agricultural practices)in agriculture and forestry sectors as cost-effective approaches to increasing carbon sinks.These are essential for carbon neutrality as they can neutralize or offset emissions and other sources of non-point source pollution from the agriculture sector,as well as the energy sector and other industries.Develop pathways towards carbon peaking and neutrality at subnational levels and identify options to mitigate the trade-offs between different sectors and regions.4.2.Actions for research institutesThere is a dearth of research and peer-reviewed evidence in China that quantifies the total emission reduction potential of food and land use systems.Additionally,carbon emissions and emissions reduction in food and land use systems often involve complex ecological processes,making them more difficult to model than processes associated with the energy sector,and carbon capture and sequestration technologies.The Chinese Government and research institutes can increase investment in climate research that tackles GHG emissions from food and land use systems,explores the mitigation potential of different systems,and develops systemic approaches for moving forward.Knowledge exchange and international collaboration should be promoted to learn from other countries that are more advanced in agriculture GHG emission research.In particular,more research is needed on:Methods to better account for GHG emissions and sinks in the AFOLU sector,explore the best options for emission mitigation in the agriculture sector,and analyze when carbon peaking can be achieved for food and land use systems.Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality21 Decarbonization pathways for the agricultural and food sectors along value chains and estimating the costs associated with proposed food system transitions.Methods to address food demand-side drivers of emissions and investigate low-carbon and healthy diet options for Chinese citizens.Equity impacts of food system transitions towards a low emission future.Changes in agriculture and food policies to reduce GHG emissions may have unequal impacts across different income and gender groups and in rural and urban areas.It is therefore strongly recommended that ex-ante research of the potential socioeconomic impacts is conducted before any policy implementation.The impacts of trade policy changes for international soft commodities on Chinas domestic land use and related emissions from food and land use systems.4.3.Actions for NGOs Although NGOs in China are subject to strict laws,they can still play an important role in developing engagement and communication strategies that will support the implementation of food and land use policies and system transition towards the carbon neutrality goal.For instance,NGOs can:Support relevant government campaigns,such as the“clean plate”against food waste.Emphasize the importance of nature-based solutions5(such as agroforestry,regenerative agricultural practices)in agriculture and forestry and the need to prioritize other objectives alongside climate neutrality,such as rural livelihoods,soil health,human health and nutrition,biodiversity conservation,etc.Organize dialogues between research institutes and help break down the disciplinary silos that exist in climate research between different sectors.Support and engage with research institutes to better communicate research findings to the public and raise awareness.Help connect China with other countries to prioritize GHG mitigation in global agriculture and food systems.Support consumer engagement and farmer capacity building.5 Nature-based solutions in agriculture seek to improve the ecosystem functions of environments and landscapes affected by agricultural practices and land degradation,while enhancing livelihoods and other social and cultural functions(Miralles-Wilhelm,2021).Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality22Emissions/removalsActivityBy subcategoryEmissions in 2015(000 ton)GHG emissions generated in Chinas food and land use systemsAgricultural productionCrop residues33,261.0Rice cultivation152,668.1Burning-crop residues6,860.8Enteric fermentation191,551.9Manure management65,906.8Manure left on pasture54,272.8Manure applied to soils28,766.4Synthetic fertilizers170,763.1Drained organic soils2,248.7On-farm energy use131,113.3Savanna fires251.2Land Use changeLand conversion2.4Pre-productionFertilizers manufacturing166,749.5On-farm electricity use88,799.6Post-production&consumptionFood processing8,547.8Food packaging103,896.0Food retail19,525.8Food household consumption397,275.0Food transport43,166.9WasteFood systems waste disposal210,203.0GHG removals via forest in ChinaForestForest carbon sequestration(excl.emissions from forest fires)-711,273.9Annex 1:Estimated GHG contributions by Chinas food and land use systems(Background data for Figure 2 in the text)Source:FAOSTAT,2022Tapping the emissions reduction potential of Chinas food and land use systems to achieve carbon neutrality23AGFEP et al.,(2021)China and Global Food Policy Report 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