Explore M&A Activity,Capital Market Conditions and Current Trends for the Agribusiness and Food Value Chain Industry1H 2024AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking&Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA&SIPC.720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 1AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT2Established in 2002,SDR Ventures has developed deep M&A and capital transaction knowledge and expertise.SDR offers transaction advisory,private capital formation and business consulting services across a wide range of industries.We serve business owners and operators of privately held companies and provide them with a professional-class experience.ABOUT SDRTransaction ActivityActive BuyersPublic BasketM&A Market ActivityAbout SDR VenturesAGRIBUSINESS CONTACTSCONTENTSThe information contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be considered all-inclusive.It is not to be construed as an offer or consultation of an offer to sell or buy any securities.Ben LuchowBen LuchowVice PresidentAgribusiness&FVC TAGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN 1H24:WHAT TO KNOW ItsIts hardhard toto imagineimagine a a sectorsector thatthat affectsaffects ourour liveslives moremore thanthan AgribusinessAgribusiness&FoodFood ValueValue ChainChain.ItsIts everythingeverything fromfrom puttingputting fertilizerfertilizer in in thethe ground,ground,toto harvesting,harvesting,toto producing,producing,packaging,packaging,andand gettinggetting foodfood intointo thethe mouthsmouths ofof hungryhungry consumersconsumers.ConsumerConsumer tastestastes areare ficklefickle.TodaysTodays hottesthottest trendtrend is is tomorrowstomorrows fonduefondue fadfad.ProducersProducers whowho cancan adaptadapt toto consumerconsumer demands,demands,fromfrom betterbetter-forfor-youyou brandsbrands toto a a renewedrenewed inflationinflation-fueledfueled interestinterest in in privateprivate-labellabel brandsbrands standstand toto gaingain.ConsumersConsumers evolveevolve andand producersproducers mustmust keepkeep upup.SustainabilitySustainability isntisnt a a passingpassing fadfad.ConsumersConsumers overwhelmingly,overwhelmingly,andand increasingly,increasingly,saysay theythey areare concernedconcerned aboutabout sustainablesustainable foodfood productionproduction.AndAnd now,now,producersproducers areare seeingseeing thethe advantagesadvantages ofof efficientefficient farmingfarming andand ranching,ranching,shavingshaving inputinput costscosts andand deliveringdelivering betterbetter yieldsyields (and(and profits)profits).ThatsThats A A BigBig SpreadSpread YouYou GotGot ThereThere.TheThe BigBig BusinessBusiness ofof FoodFoodThose who grow,package,process,and produce food and ingredients know food is all about taste.Consumer taste.And that consumer tastes change.Were always watching underlying demands that will ultimately drive a consumer to buy something.Food prices have been rising,and 2024 is not the year to expect a steep decline.So delivering what consumers want will continue to be a key to getting them to open their wallets.Plant based meats,all the rage not long ago,are seeing a customer pullback.Younger people are drinking fewer alcoholic beverages.As customers get choosier,its up to producers to deliver what they want.Its a tough market,no doubt.Established brands are being pushed by less expensive private label foods.Its a crowded,competitive environment and innovation up and down the chain continues to play a role.Producers need to keep up.1,2,3 One trend thats holding steady,maybe growing,among both consumers and producers is sustainability.Consumers are looking for sustainability from farm to packaged goods to restaurant tables.And if farmers can benefit through sustainable developments such as regenerative farming practices that improve the land or precision farming that reduces input costs,why not?4,5,6,7 Ben PaddorBen PaddorAssociateAgribusiness&FVC TEric BosveldEric BosveldSenior Advisor Agribusiness&FVC T720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 13Costs are a driving force up and down the food value chain.End consumers arent the only ones fighting food inflation.Input costs are squeezing farmers and ranchers and dont appear ready to ease.The steep runup in commodity prices may level off,but they arent expected to return to pre-pandemic levels.Some raw ingredients such as orange juice,coffee,and cocoa continue to battle natural causes such as drought,weather,and disease.8,9,10,11 From pasture to packaging,were watching closely for producers who can adapt and adopt.ConsumerConsumer TrendsTrends.TodaysTodays HotHot DishDish OrOr TomorrowsTomorrows Leftovers?Leftovers?If youre old enough,you remember when quiche was all the rage.Then consumers seemed to realize,as one old farmer noted,“Its an egg pie.”Remember Jello-O molds,fondue,and blackened everything?How about those fat-free chips made with Olestra that led to FDA required warnings about,shall we say,“intestinal distress”(no longer required)on packaging?Consumer tastes change.12,13,14 Now,were seeing a surge of interest in private-label consumer packaged goods.Some are calling it a“revolution”as large retailers promote their own brands to compete against traditional brands and consumers like the products(and love the prices).Some 70%of grocery consumers say theyve tried private labels and half say theyll continue to use the brands.More than four out of five consumers say pricing is the driving force.But grocers appear to also like the shift as private labels build customer loyalty and even boost a chains prestige.Target,Kroger,and Aldi are all playing along.When did Costcos Kirkland become as ubiquitous as Trader Joes“Two Buck Chuck?”15 Consumers also seem to be gravitating to“better-for-you”foods.They want to know whats in the stuff theyre eating.If youve ever considered reading the ingredients on a package of Twinkies,dont.You might decide to eat the wrapper instead.Increasing awareness around fitness and health is driving demand for healthier ingredients,and the global ingredients market is expecting to see nearly 10%compound annual growth rate(CAGR)with the market expected to reach$75 billion by 2027.16,17,18 Then theres 2022s darling,plant-based meats.Apparently,not so much in 2024.Consumer demand for these meatless meats has continued to drop over the past two years,down in the U.S.by 26%from 2021 to 2023.In part,its because of high costs.But,oddly,a recent consumer survey found consumers dont want a cheaper version either.It may truly come down to consumer familiarity and product availability or simply taste.Industry leaders say a switch away from our ever-growing demand for real meat to meatless alternatives is key to fighting climate change.But will consumers buy it?Well see.Consumers are,however,sticking with plant-based dairy products(soy-,nut-,and oat-based milk,cheese,ice cream)with dollar sales up 9%since 2021.In the end,maybe it is simply about taste.2,19 In business,one thing is becoming clear:Innovate and adapt to consumer demands or end up as lonely as Aunt Ednas Jell-O mold at the holiday potluck.ItsIts NotNot EasyEasy BeingBeing GreenGreen.OrOr Is Is It?It?One indicator of consumers interest,desire for,sustainably produced and packaged foods is to add money to the mix.And,surprise,the money appears to show they really are interested.According to one survey,consumers say theyre willing to pay nearly a 10%premium for sustainably produced and sourced goods.A third say theyve even changed the foods they eat with an eye toward sustainability.Another report cites survey data from food service giant Sodexo indicating more than 70%of Americans feel the need for a more sustainable food chain is“urgent.”Demand for sustainably produced goods is likely to only go up,as the most fervent generations are Millennials and Gen Z,the up-and-coming age cohorts.4,20,21 If theres demand,what about supply?A funny thing is trending in agribiz.Talk of regenerative agriculture not just using the land but preserving and improving it has grown from a small circle of pioneers to the mainstream.Investors are looking at taking exhausted,low-yielding land and restoring it.Carbon sequestration,sustainable grazing,and the industry of producing food is finding being“green”is actually profitable.Mondelez International,a giant in the food production industry,is working with farmers to help them dive into“regen ag with programs to minimize soil disturbance and tillage,diversify crops,maintain living roots throughout the year and integrate livestock with crop fields.720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 1If better care for the land leads to better outputs,and what consumers are willing to pay for,maybe this really is the future.6,22The science of greener,more sustainable farming and ranching never sleeps.Theres more to come.Scientists are trying everything to reduce the greenhouse gas methane from burping cattle,including feed supplements,breeding less gassy cows,and even vaccines.Now,a University of California Davis group is tapping into a$70 million TED Audacious Project fund to use CRISPR gene-editing techniques to alter the microbes that produce the methane inside cow stomachs with an eye toward reducing the methane by-product.Someday,perhaps calves will get an oral dose of an edited microbe that will change the way they process feed.In another biotech innovation,Israeli researchers are investing in ways to reimagine dairy production to remove antibiotics from the process,something enthusiast say will benefit consumers,farmers,and livestock.The Union of Concerned Scientists reports its understood there are costs to moving away from traditional farming,but ultimately the goal is to minimize environmental impacts,help farmers become more resilient to droughts,floods,and climate change and maximize productivity and profit.Reduce costs,cut pollution,satisfy consumers,and make more money.23,24,25 MoneyMoney Is Is WhatWhat ItsIts AboutAbout.TheThe CommoditiesCommodities SqueezeSqueeze FromFrom FarmFarm ToTo ShelfShelfIts not news that input costs affect farmers and ranchers,commodities prices impact consumer packaged goods producers,and shelf prices affect consumers and play into their choices at the cash register.Weve been watching closely as a series of unfortunate events from weather,to supply chain disruptions,to government meddling have rattled the supply chain.The war in Ukraine continues to increase the price farmers pay for fertilizer,due to Ukraines large role in fertilizer raw materials,which in turn boosts the prices farmers need to get at market for the commodities they produce.Protectionist trade barriers,droughts in many parts of the world,and disruptions at critical canals(rocket toting rebels near the Suez and low water levels at the Panama)are increasing shipping costs and are all conspiring to increase food costs.26,27,28,29 Consumers are paying the price.Cocoa and coffee prices hit record levels in 2024 as producers around the world dealt with disease and brutal weather blamed on the El Nio weather pattern.Orange prices are up for both processors and consumers who saw the price of a 12-ounce can of frozen orange juice concentrate rocket 42%compared to last year.Those prices are expected to stay high as producers in Brazil were struck by both flooding and drought and producers in Florida continue to deal with hurricane damage and a citrus“greening”disease.The situation is so dire some juice makers have mulled switching away from oranges to mandarins in response.10,11,30 Sourcing,managing,distributing,and delivering the commodities producers,and ultimately consumers,rely on will continue to challenge the sector from top to bottom,both to provide reliable supplies and control pricing.TheThe ShoppingShopping CartCart:MergersMergers&AcquisitionsAcquisitions In February,private equity firm Harwood Private Equity acquired Illinois-based dairy stabilizer maker,contract packager,and branded and private-label dry goods provider Crest from Brown Gibbons Lang&Co.Terms were not disclosed.Crest was founded in 1946.Its products include stabilizers and recipes for dairy products such as cottage cheese,cream cheese,yogurt,and plant-based drinks.The acquisition is expected to provide a spark for Crests next phase of growth.31 Stellex Capital Management,a private equity firm that operates mid-market companies both in North America and Europe,acquired artisan backed goods company J.Skinner Baking of Omaha,Nebraska in June.J.Skinner makes Danishes,muffins,cinnamon rolls,and brownies through its in-store bakeries(ISBs)as well as through co-pack partnerships.J.Skinner is one of the largest ISB providers in the U.S.,selling products in more than 30,000 retail outlets in every state.In the announcement,Stellex and J.Skinner officials said Stellex capital infusion will fuel expanded production capacity,automation,and new product development.J.Skinner CEO Audie Keaton called the companys plans“aggressive.”324720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 1 In another private equity play,global berry giant Driscolls part of a North American-based group led by Paine Schwartz Partners and British Columbia Investment Management Corp.in February acquired Australias leading fresh fruit and vegetable packer Costa Group.With a history dating back to the 1800s,Costa grows,markets,and supplies berries,tomatoes,citrus,avocados,mushrooms and grapes in Australia,China,Morocco,and southern Africa.Driscolls and Costa worked together for more than a decade before the acquisition.Driscolls provides berries in about 50 countries.The leading investors have deep holdings in the food industry.Paine Schwartz,based in New York,over the past few decades has invested$5.7 billion in agriculture and the food supply chain,and was a former investor in Costa.Canadas British Columbia Investment Management reports$233 billion in gross assets under management,including the mushroom and citrus industry.33AllAll TheThe WayWay FromFrom DirtDirt ToTo DoorDash,DoorDash,FeedFeed UsUsFrom hunter-gatherers,to drones and autonomous robotic farming,to self-driving carts that bring groceries to the doorstep,the broad Agriculture and Food Value Chain sector has always been driven by those willing to innovate and adapt.Like the weather,theres a lot that food producers,packagers,and distributors cant change,be that shifts in climate or sea changes in consumer tastes.But there are some things in their control.Its a tough space to be in,and well be watching how each subsector,each player,can use whatever tools they have available to adapt and overcome each change and challenge.33,34On the horizon?An exciting startup is using AI to better predict the prices of commodities such as cocoa,fruits,and vegetables by incorporating computer-modeled supply chains,something that may be very helpful to commodities-dependent producers and packagers.Big producers of sweets and snacks,including Hershey and Oreo cookie maker Mondelez International,are nimbly adapting to U.S.sugar tariffs by stepping across the border to open facilities in Canada.Perhaps a boon for Canadian operations.Precision livestock and agricultural management tools are evolving(even laser scarecrows to chase away corn-munching birds).All while rapidly evolving AI technologies analyze molecular structures to create new,consumer-pleasing tastes and head off food safety issues,manage consumer packaged goods quality control and distribution,and reduce waste and spoilage.35,36,37,38,39Perhaps no other sector is more important to the way the world works than Agriculture and Food Value Chain.There seem to be as many moving parts as there are challenges.But we cant think of anything more important,and potentially profitable,than overcoming those challenges.Eight billion hungry mouths are counting on it.40 5720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 165 or more transactions3-4 transactions1-2 transactions0 transactionsTRANSACTIONS BY SEGMENTTRANSACTIONS BY TYPETRANSACTIONS BY LOCATIONTRANSACTION ACTIVITYSources:S&P Global Market Intelligence;PitchBookNote:This data represents recorded transactions only,and is not all-inclusive.Nevertheless,they are typically representative of the industry.CANADAIf You Are a Business Owner Looking for Additional Transaction Activity If You Are a Business Owner Looking for Additional Transaction Activity Within Your Industry,Please Call Our Offices at 720.221.9220.Within Your Industry,Please Call Our Offices at 720.221.9220.GeoNames,Microsoft,TomTomPowered by Bing4 20 9 40 36 11 30 46 55 21 13 -10 20 30 40 50 60Strategic64%Financial36r0.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 1FIRMSELECT SUBSIDIARY BRANDSFIRMSELECT SUBSIDIARY BRANDS7ACTIVE BUYERSSources:S&P Global Market Intelligence;PitchBook;FactSet Note:This data represents recorded transactions only,and is not all-inclusive.Nevertheless,they are typically representative of the industry.MOST ACTIVE STRATEGIC BUYERSSELECT SPONSORS WITH ACTIVE PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 1-30%-20%-10%0 0%Jun-23Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24Diversified AgribusinessCrop/Turf/Onamental InputsAnimal Health&NutritionMachinery&EquipmentAgricultural Tech&Services1st Level ProcessingS&P 500PUBLIC BASKET8AGRIBUSINESS SEGMENTS VS.S&P 500Segment Market Cap Performance Running 12 MonthsSource:PitchBook Financial Data and AnalyticsFOOD VALUE CHAIN SEGMENTS VS.S&P 500Segment Market Cap Performance Running 12 Months-30%-20%-10%0 0P%Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24Co-Packers&Contract ManufacturersCPG FoodFood DistributionFood Machinery&EquipmentFood IngredientsS&P 500720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 19PUBLIC BASKET(CONTINUED)CROP,TURF&ORNAMENTAL INPUTSANIMAL HEALTH&NUTRITIONSource:PitchBook Financial Data and AnalyticsDIVERSIFIED AGRIBUSINESS Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAArcher Daniels MidlandADM29,889$60.45$(3.8%)(16.3%)69.2%(3.7%)5.5%0.4x8.1x10.6x0.5x7.9xThe AndersonsANDE1,689 49.60 (13.5%)(13.8%)80.7%(8.0%)3.0%0.2x5.4x14.0 x0.2x7.3xLimoneiraLMNR375 20.81 6.4%0.9.6.2%3.5%2.6xNMNM2.3xNMSegment Average(3.6%)(9.7%)80.5%-0.5%4.0%1.1x6.8x12.3x1.0 x7.6xSegment Median(3.8%)(13.8%)80.7%(3.7%)3.5%0.4x6.8x12.3x0.5x7.6xMarket Stats Operating Stats LTM Multiples NTM Multiples 720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 1 Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAIdexx LaboratoriesIDXX40,237$487.20$(9.8%)(12.2%)83.5.53.1.0 x33.2x47.2x9.9x28.3xIteris(Electronic Equipment and InstrumeITI186 4.33 (12.3%)(16.7%)78.9.4%4.1%1.0 x23.5x61.9x0.9x9.4xSEED Innovations(Guernsey)SEED5 0.02 (4.9%)(14.5%)43.4%NMNMNMNMNMNMNMArcadia BiosciencesRKDA4 3.15 42.5%0.6V.2%5.3%NMNMNMNM(0.6x)0.7xSegment Average3.9%(10.7%)65.5%9.7.6%6.0 x28.3x54.5x3.4x12.8xSegment Median(7.3%)(13.4%)67.6.5.6%6.0 x28.3x54.5x0.9x9.4xMarket Stats Operating Stats LTM Multiples NTM Multiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAJohn DeereDE102,961$373.63$(9.0%)(6.6%)83.0%(23.9%)29.7%2.8x9.5x11.2x3.7x15.6xCNH IndustrialCNHI12,738 10.09 (22.1%)(18.1%)64.3%NM18.7%1.6x8.3x5.9xNMNMAdvanced Drainage Systems WMS12,432 160.39 (6.9%)14.0.0%6.20.9%4.6x15.0 x24.9x4.4x13.5xThe ToroTTC9,713 93.51 2.1%(2.6%)87.7%9.5.4%2.4x21.1x37.0 x2.2x14.0 xAGCOAGCO7,304 97.88 (20.4%)(19.4%)69.7%(13.2%)10.9%0.6x5.7x6.6x0.7x7.0 xValmont IndustriesVMI5,542 274.45 20.2.5.9%1.5%9.8%1.6x16.7x36.3x1.6x11.1xAlamo GroupALG2,071 173.00 (24.2%)(17.7%)74.8%(0.8%)14.5%1.3x9.2x15.4x1.3x9.2xLindsayLNN1,338 122.88 4.4%(4.9%)89.5%7.4.5%2.1x12.2x18.7x2.0 x13.4xTitan InternationalTWI540 7.41 (40.5%)(50.2%)48.3.8%8.2%0.6x7.1x8.3x0.5x6.3xTitan MachineryTITN363 15.90 (35.9%)(44.9%)45.4%1.9%6.7%0.5x8.2x3.8x0.5x14.2xSegment Average(13.2%)(13.3%)74.3%0.5.8%1.8x11.3x16.8x1.9x11.6xSegment Median(14.7%)(12.1%)78.9%1.9.9%1.6x9.4x13.3x1.6x13.4xMarket Stats Operating Stats LTM Multiples NTM Multiples AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY&SERVICES10PUBLIC BASKET(CONTINUED)FOOD MACHINERY&EQUIPMENTSource:PitchBook Financial Data and Analytics1ST LEVEL PROCESSINGCOPACKERS&COMANUFACTURERS Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDATyson Foods(Food Products)TSN20,343$57.14$(2.7%)6.3.1%0.6%2.2%0.6x24.7xNM0.5x8.9xHormel FoodsHRL16,718 30 (12.6%)(5.0%)73.1%1.5.6%1.6x15.1x21.8x1.6x13.1xPilgrims PridePPC9,120 38.49 12.29.2.7%2.4%6.7%0.7x10.1xNM0.7x8.4xPremium Brands HoldingPBH3,055 69 5.6%(3.2%)81.4%7.7%6.8%1.1x16.0 x43.8x1.0 x10.1xSegment Average0.6%9.3.3%3.0%6.6%1.0 x16.5x32.8x0.9x10.1xSegment Median1.4%1.6.8%1.9%6.8%0.9x15.5x32.8x0.8x9.5xMarket Stats Operating Stats LTM Multiples NTM Multiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAPilgrims PridePPC9,120$38.49$(1.8%)(17.4%)77.0%2.4%6.7%5.0 x14.5x18.7x5.0 x15.7xJohn B.Sanfilippo&SonJBSS1,128 97.17 (1.0%)(13.1%)80.1%(7.5%)10.9%7.1x25.5x16.9x7.2x22.7xHerbalife NutritionHLF1,039 10.39 (3.8%)4.3.3%0.4%9.3%5.8x20.1x7.6x5.4x14.4xBridgford FoodsBRID91 10.04 (3.7%)18.8.3%NM3.7%1.6x13.3xNM1.6x7.7xRiceBran TechnologiesRIBT2 0.16 (11.3%)4.9.2%NMNM1.9x20.3xNM2.0 x16.7xSegment Average(4.3%)(0.5%)82.8%-1.6%7.7%4.3x18.7x14.4x4.2x15.4xSegment Median(3.7%)4.3.2%0.4%8.0%5.0 x20.1x16.9x5.0 x15.7xMarket Stats Operating Stats LTM Multiples NTM Multiples 720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 111PUBLIC BASKET(CONTINUED)FOOD DISTRIBUTIONSource:PitchBook Financial Data and AnalyticsFOOD MACHINERY&EQUIPMENTFOOD INGREDIENTSCPG FOOD Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAMondelez InternationalMDLZ87,779$65.44$4.4%8.7.2%3.7!.7%3.3x16.6x20.8x3.2x15.8xGeneral Mills(Food Products)GIS35,308 63.26 1.8%(22.3%)71.7%0.1 .4%2.4x12.6x14.7x2.5x12.2xKellanovaK19,720 57.68 0.1%(16.4%)82.0.1.0%1.6x15.0 x21.0 x2.1x11.5xMcCormick&CompanyMKC19,024 70.94 (9.5%)(17.5%)72.5%1.1.5%3.5x20.2x25.9x3.4x18.0 xHormel FoodsHRL16,718 30.49 (15.6%)(29.5%)68.3%1.5.6%1.7x15.2x21.8x1.7x14.3xCampbell SoupCPB13,492 45.19 5.2%(23.8%)75.5.2.0%1.9x10.8x18.3x1.8x9.2xPost HoldingsPOST6,311 104.16 2.7%(2.4%)89.1%3.1.7%1.6x10.4x20.0 x1.4x8.6xLancaster ColonyLANC5,202 188.97 0.8%(15.7%)75.4%3.0.3%2.4x22.0 x39.1x2.4x15.4xFlowers FoodsFLO4,687 22.20 1.5%(21.7%)77.0%1.4%6.6%1.2x18.1x37.6x1.2x11.4xJ&J Snack FoodsJJSF3,148 162.37 2.1.6.1%3.5.9%2.1x18.8x36.6x2.1xNMB&G FoodsBGS639 8.08 6.2%(5.8%)62.9%(3.3%)4.7%1.4x15.1xNM1.5x9.9xFarmer BrothersFARM57 2.68 18.6%(33.6%)56.8%2.3%NM0.3xNMNM0.3x15.7xRocky Mountain Chocolate FactoryRMCF14 2.20 (3.4%)(19.3%)76.8%NM(14.4%)1.0 xNMNMNMNMSegment Average1.2%(14.4%)76.5%3.1.5%1.9x15.9x25.6x2.0 x12.9xSegment Median1.8%(17.5%)75.5%2.7.7%1.7x15.2x21.4x1.9x12.2xMarket Stats Operating Stats LTM Multiples NTM Multiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDASyscoSYY35,551$71.39$21.2.6.4%5.5%5.5%0.6x15.1x17.4x0.5x6.1xUS Foods HoldingUSFD13,026 52.98 6.5%(13.7%)72.6%7.7%3.8%0.5x28.5x26.1x0.5x9.6xThe Chefs WarehouseCHEF1,555 39.11 (15.6%)(29.5%)68.3%8.6%4.6%1.7x15.2x44.4x1.7x14.3xDoleDOLE1,162 12.24 2.7%(2.4%)89.1%1.4%5.2%1.6x10.4x6.0 x1.4x8.6xUnited Natural FoodsUNFI779 13.10 11.4%(1.7%)85.8%3.2%0.8%1.5x9.7xNM1.4x7.9xSegment Average5.2%(6.1%)83.0%5.3%4.0%1.2x15.8x23.5x1.1x9.3xSegment Median6.5%(2.4%)85.8%5.5%4.6%1.5x15.1x21.8x1.4x8.6xMarket Stats Operating Stats LTM Multiples NTM Multiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAIllinois Tool WorksITW70,709$236.96$10.7%(4.3%)88.8%1.2(.6%0.6x12.7x23.4x0.6x11.1xDover(Machinery(B2B)DOV24,799 180.45 14.43.5.1%4.6&.3%0.4x12.0 x17.3x0.4x9.1xMiddlebyMIDD6,593 122.61 11.4%(1.7%)85.8%2.6.9%1.5x9.7x17.1x1.4x7.9xJohn Bean TechnologiesJBT3,024 94.97 14.8%(58.1%)36.9%5.4.4%0.1x13.9x22.8x0.1x9.1xMarel(Food Processing Company)MAREL2,657 3.52 4.3%(24.1%)70.9%4.4.2%0.2x8.3xNM0.2x6.1xSegment Average11.1%(10.9%)76.3%3.7.9%0.6x11.3x20.1x0.5x8.6xSegment Median11.4%(4.3%)85.8%4.4.9%0.4x12.0 x20.1x0.4x9.1xMarket Stats Operating Stats LTM Multiples NTM Multiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAMcCormick&CompanyMKC19,024$70.94$(9.5%)(17.5%)72.5%1.1.5%3.5x20.2x25.9x3.4x18.0 xIngredionINGR7,530 114.70 10.3.8.7%(2.2%)14.9%1.1x8.1x11.5x1.2x7.6xSensient TechnologiesSXT3,143 74.19 12.9%(9.5%)83.3%7.3.4%2.4x14.0 x34.5x2.2x13.2xSunOptaSOY626 5.37 61.7%(34.9%)56.2.1%7.7%1.6xNMNM1.5x11.8xSegment Average18.8%(12.8%)76.9%4.3.9%2.1x14.1x24.0 x2.1x12.6xSegment Median11.6%(13.5%)77.9%4.2.6%2.0 x14.0 x25.9x1.9x12.5xMarket Stats Operating Stats LTM Multiples NTM Multiples 720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 154B)B6GIEBB)0%9%8GIb67)%9%5UXab962#%7%6%6TUcq%0 0%$10-25mm$25-50mm$50-100mm$100-250mm$10-25mm$25-50mm$50-100mm$100-250mm$10-25mm$25-50mm$50-100mm$100-250mm$10-25mm$25-50mm$50-100mm$100-250mmSenior DebtSub DebtEquity12U.S.M&A ACTIVITY SNAPSHOTSource:GF DataSource:GF DataOVERALL U.S.M&A ACTIVITYNote:The most current source of GF Data is as of May 2024.LOWER MIDDLE MARKET PRIVATE EQUITY TRANSACTION MULTIPLESEBITDA Multiples By Transaction SizeCAPITAL BREAKDOWN LOWER MIDDLE MARKET PRIVATE EQUITY TRANSACTIONSSource:PitchBook Financial Data and Analytics202120232022YTD 2024$0.0M$100.0B$200.0B$300.0B$400.0B$500.0B$600.0B1,3002,3003,3004,3002023 Q22023 Q32023 Q42024 Q12024 Q2Deals ClosedDeals ClosedCapital Invested5.9x6.1x6.8x6.1x6.8x7.0 x7.3x7.5x8.0 x8.3x8.8x8.6x9.0 x9.4x10.0 x8.5x0.0 x2.0 x4.0 x6.0 x8.0 x10.0 x12.0 x202120222023YTD 2024$10-25mm$25-50mm$50-100mm$100-250mm720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 1AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORTCOMPREHENSIVE AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN EXPERTISEOur Agribusiness&Food Value Chain Team has worked on and completed numerous M&A transactions with both strategic and financial buyers and sellers across a wide range of manufacturing,distribution and service-related businesses in the agribusiness,horticultural,agrifood and green space industries.This accumulated experience and expertise will help your company approach the market with the right strategy and resources in place.Our Agribusiness&Food Value Chain Industry investment banking expertise includes the following segments:13SDR SERVICE OFFERINGSPRIVATE CAPITAL FORMATIONSELL-SIDE ADVISORYBUY-SIDE ADVISORYEXIT PREPARATIONCONTACT USSELECT TRANSACTION EXPERIENCESDR has completed numerous transactions types throughout the Agribusiness&Food Value Chain Industry,including:Diversified Agribusiness Crop/Turf/Ornamental Inputs Animal Health&Nutrition Machinery&Equipment Agriproducts Distribution Food Distribution Agricultural Technology&Services Oilseeds&Ingredients Copackers&Comanufacturers*These transactions were completed by SDR Senior Advisor Eric Bosveld during his tenure at another firm.Ben LuchowBen LuchowVice PresidentAgribusiness&FVC TEric BosveldEric BosveldSenior Advisor Agribusiness&FVC T720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 1141.“USDA:Grocery Food Prices Will Increase In Most Categories In 2024,”Supermarket News,Mar.28,2024 https:/ Meat Boomed.Here Comes The Bust,”Wired,Matt Reynolds,Apr.22,2024 https:/ Key For Growth In 2024 Is Innovation.Will More CPG Companies Embrace It?”FoodDive,Christopher Doering,Jan.16,2024 https:/ Willing To Pay 9.7%Sustainability Premium,Even As Cost-Of-Living And Inflationary Concerns Weigh:PwC 2024 Voice Of The Consumer Survey,”PwC,May 15,2024 https:/ Sustainability:Ordering Up New Green Opportunities,”Forbes,Jeff Kiesel,Jul 18,2024 https:/ 2024 Hinted At The Comon Ground Regenerative Agriculture Needs,”AFN,Louisa Burwood-Taylor,Jul.4,2024 https:/ AI And Precision Agriculture Lower Farming Costs?”Future Farming,Sep.22,2023 https:/ Says High Farm Production Costs Not Easing In 2024,”U.S.Committee on Agriculture,Nutrition&Forestry,Jul.13,2023 https:/www.agriculture.senate.gov/newsroom/minority-blog/usda-says-high-farm-production-costs-not-easing-in-2024 9.“The Commodity Markets Outlook In Eight Charts,”World Bank,John Baffes and Kaltrina Temaj,May 8,2024 https:/blogs.worldbank.org/en/developmenttalk/the-commodity-markets-outlook-in-eight-charts 10.“High Orange Juice Prices May Be On The Table For A While Due To Disease And Extreme Weather,”Associated Press,Dee-Ann Durbin and Tatiana Pollastri,Jun.14,2024 https:/ 11.“Cocoa And Coffee Prices Have Soared To Record Highs And Citi Says There May Still Be Room To Run,”CNBC,Sam Meredith,Apr.4,2024 https:/ 12.“The 45 Biggest Food Trends Of The Past 45 Years,”Food&Wine,Caitlin Petreycik,Dec.22,2022 https:/ experience,author14.“FDA Removes Olestra Warning,”NBC News via Associated Press,Aug.1,2003 https:/ 15.“Leading The Charge:How Private Brands From Target,Aldi,Costco,And Kroger Are Setting New Standards In Grocery Retail,”Grocerydoppio,Neha Ghal,Jan.23,2024 https:/ REFERENCES720.221.9220|SDRVENTURES.COMInvestment Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 115ADDITIONAL REFERENCES(CONTINUED)16.“Consumers Seeking Better-For-You Options To Drive The Food Ingredients Market:Report,”Food Dive,Elizabeth Flood,May 2,2024 https:/ In My Food?Twinkie Edition,”Sciences Meets Food,Oct.30,2019 https:/sciencemeetsfood.org/whats-in-my-food-twinkie/18.“Food Ingredients Global Market Report,”The Business Research Company,2024 https:/ 19.“Consumers Dont Want Cheap Plant-Based Meat And Dairy,”Food Navigator,Flora Southey,Jul.2,2024 https:/ Feel An Urgency To Eat More Sustainable Food,”Food Dive via National Sunflower Association,Feb.12,2024 https:/ Shopping:What Consumers Really Want,”Inc.,Nick Hawkins,Mar.18,2024 https:/ Agriculture:How Manufacturers And Farmers Are Working Together,”Food Navigator,Donna Eastlake,May 31,2024 https:/ 23.“CRISPR:A Gamechanger For Livestock Methane Reduction?Its High-Risk,High-Reward,Says UC Davis Professor,”AFN,Jun.26,2024 https:/ 24.“Ingredients In Focus:Yotvata Dairy Farm Invests In Biotech Company To Remove Antibiotics From Milk,”Food Dive,Elizabeth Flood,May 30,2024 https:/ Emerging Field Of Sustainable Agriculture,”Columbia SPS School of Professional Studies,faculty,Mar.25,2024 https:/sps.columbia.edu/news/emerging-field-sustainable-agriculture#:text=It uses state-of-the,that farmers are already seeing.26.“How The Supply Chain Impacts The Cost Of Food,”The University of British Columbia,Canada,Mar.8,2024 https:/beyond.ubc.ca/how-the-supply-chain-impacts-the-cost-of-food/27.“FTC Releases Report On Grocery Supply Chain Disruptions,”Federal Trade Commission,Mar.21,2024 https:/www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/03/ftc-releases-report-grocery-supply-chain-disruptions 28.“Global Fertilizer Market Challenged By Russias Invasion Of Ukraine,”USDA Economic Research Institute,Jennifer Kee et.al.,Sep.18,2023 https:/www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2023/september/global-fertilizer-market-challenged-by-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine/29.“Heat,War And Trade Protections Raise Uncertainty For Food Prices,”New York Times,Eshe Nelson et.al.,Aug.10,2023 https:/ 30.“Orange Juice Makers Consider Using Other Fruits After Prices Go Bananas,”Yahoo Finance via The Guardian,Sarah Butler,May 29,2024 https:/ 31.“Co-Manufacturer Crest Foods Sold To Harwood Private Equity,”Food Processing News,Andy Hanacek,Feb.22,2024 https:/ Banking and Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA and SIPC.AGRIBUSINESS&FOOD VALUE CHAIN REPORT1H 2024 1H 2024|VOL 1|ISSUE 116ADDITIONAL REFERENCES(CONTINUED)32.“J.Skinner Baking Partners With Stellex In Expansion-Focused Recapitalization,”BusinessWire via Stellex news release,Jun.20,2024 https:/ Buys Costa Group,”Progressive Grocer,Marian Zboraj,Feb.26,2024 https:/ 34.“A Leap Forward In Ag-Tech:How Autonomous Systems And Precision Agriculture Are Transforming Farming A Guide,”Advanced Navigation,Jun.7,2024 https:/ Do Food Delivery Robots Work?”StandardB,Sep.21,2023 https:/ 36.“We Predicted Increases In Cocoa Prices Months Before The Market.Helios Taps AI To Power Forecasting Platform For Soft Commodities,”AFN,Elaine Watson,May 14,2024 https:/ 37.“Costly US Sugar Tariffs Drive Candy Makers Over The Border To Canada,”Bloomberg,Ilena Peng,Jun.8,2024 https:/ 38.“20 Agricultural Technologies&Advanced Methods Of Farming,”ThomasN,Laura Ross,Feb.28,2024 https:/ Future Of Flavor:Exploring AIs Role In Food Design And Development,”C,Justin Honaman,Mar.25,2024 https:/ World Population,”Worldometer,accessed Jul.23,2024 https:/www.worldometers.info/world-population/
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1PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAIn collaboration withWhat role can financial actors play in embedding agroecological principles into the protein transition in Southeast Asia?PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIA2PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIACONTENTSPREFACEREFERENCESACKNOWLEDGEMENTSPg 3Pg 34Pg 37INTRODUCTIONPg 4Pg 5Pg 20Pg 6Pg 21Pg 9Pg 23Pg 12Pg 25Pg 14Pg 28Pg 18Pg 30Pg 19Pg 330102AGROECOLOGY IN THE CONTEXT OF SOUTHEAST ASIATHE ROLE OF FINANCIAL ACTORS IN EMBEDDING AGROECOLOGICAL PRINCIPLESWhat is agroecology?Why is it important in achieving a healthy,resilient future food system?Why is agroecology important in Southeast Asia?Barriers to embedding agroecological principles in Southeast Asias protein systemOpportunities to embed agroecological approaches into the protein system transitionAre we seeing any signals of change?Financing an agroecological transitionWhat role can financial actors play in catalysing agroecological approaches in the protein transition in Southeast Asia?To what degree is agroecology on the radar of financial actors who are financing or investing in protein transition activities?Where are there likely barriers or limitations to financial actors catalysing agroecological approaches?Where are there opportunities for financial actors to create the conditions for protein and food system actors to embed agroecological approaches?What action can be taken to create the conditions for change?Next steps towards change Forum for the Future and GROW,2024Published February 20243PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAIn the face of critical climatic,ecological and social disruptions,the need to transform the protein system in Southeast Asia has never been more acute.Protein is a vital part of everyones diets and its production provides livelihoods for millions of people.However,the current protein system is a significant driver of biodiversity loss across both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems.It perpetuates the climate crisis,whilst at the same time,is vulnerable to its effects.Current production systems are dominated by industrial-scale processes that rely on large amounts of inputsfrom fossil fuels to feed,water,and antibioticsand are financially reliant on subsidies and tax breaks.They are linked to air and water pollution,deforestation,habitat destruction and livelihoods,and can have negative impacts on peoples health.Industrial livestock systems are a driver of declining animal welfare,increasing antimicrobial resistance and catalyse the spread of zoonotic diseases.Overconsumption of protein has become normalised and usually comes in the form of livestock products,ultra processed foods and ready meals with low nutritional benefit.These systems are fundamentally unsustainable from ecological,social and financial perspectives.At the same time,there has been a rapid increase in activity in Southeast Asia around sustainable protein.Meat production companies have been pressured by investors to address Environment,Social and Governance(ESG)impacts,particularly on carbon emissions,deforestation,antimicrobial resistance and food safety.New plant-based and alternative protein innovations are making their way into the marketplace,backed by a range of financial actors and instruments.However,these new products are not holistic solutions,and need to go further to catalyse the deep and urgent transformation required for a just and regenerative protein system.A just and regenerative protein system would restore and regenerate ecosystems and create conditions for social equity,and respect for human rights.It would be adaptive,resilient and healthy for generations to come.To achieve this,we need to work with nature and reduce the pressure on ecosystems from current production focused systems.This includes looking at both technological solutions and agroecological ones,which can be mutually supportive.They will deliver diversified protein production systems that encourage the use of local traditional knowledge,and tap the potential of existing solutions in the region,alongside novel,high-tech approaches.THE PROTEIN TRANSITION CHALLENGE IN SOUTHEAST ASIAPREFACE34PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAThe Protein Challenge Southeast Asia initiative by Forum for the Future(“Forum”)focuses on sustainable protein and aims to drive a transition to a just and regenerative protein system in Southeast Asia,challenging us to create new visions for a decentralised,regenerative,adaptive and future-resilient system.Over four months in 2022,Forum convened a cohort of Protein Visionaries across the protein innovation space in Singapore through an Action Sprinta creative,interactive and time-bound process exploring what ambitious leadership in a just and regenerative future for a thriving protein ecosystem could look like.Participants explored how reshaping business models and value chains can address emerging challenges in the protein innovation landscapefrom declining soil health,to supply chain disruptions,to investment decisions that do not contribute to a deep transition towards a future-fit food system.The purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of agroecology,explore its role in Southeast Asias protein transition,and to identify the role of the financial sector in catalysing change and barriers to action.It builds on the Action Sprint and presents the financial sector with the opportunity to enable change through its financing and investment decisions,where the capital it deploys can contribute to deep transition of the current protein system to one that is future-fit.Insights presented were generated from a combination of interviews and desk research.The protein transition offers huge potential for the region to:Deliver equitable access to nutritious sources of protein for current and future generations;Restore and regenerate soil,oceans and all ecosystems;Create value-chains that deliver social justice;and,Nurture a system that is resilient to future environmental,economic and social disruptions.INTRODUCTION45PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAAGROECOLOGY IN THE CONTEXT OF SOUTHEAST ASIA016PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAAgroecology is a bottom-up,context-specific approach to food production.Foundational elements of this approach include delivering nature positive outcomes and enhancing agricultural biodiversity.The UN Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)articulates 10 elements of an agroecological framework,1 the purpose of which is to help design the different pathways that lead to agricultural and food systems transformation.It frames agroecology in an inclusive manner,placing all elements on equal footing and providing a structure that supports stakeholders in planning,managing and delivering agroecological transitions to enable future-proof food systems.THE PRINCIPLES AND ELEMENTS OF AGROECOLOGYWHAT IS AGROECOLOGY?WHY IS IT IMPORTANT IN ACHIEVING A HEALTHY,RESILIENT FUTURE FOOD SYSTEM?DiversitySynergiesCo-creation andsharing of knowledgeRecyclingEffeciencyResilienceHuman&SocialValuesCulture andFood TraditionsResponsibleSourcingCircular andSolidarity EconomyFigure 1:The 10 elements of agroecology Source:FAO6The 10 elementswhich represent both social and environmental outcomesare interlinked and interdependent,demonstrating the integrated,holistic nature of agroecology.This means it does not seek to preserve the environment or recognise human value at the expense of economic opportunities.On the contrary,it recognises these three dimensions are interlinked and aims to improve livelihoods while creating resilient food systems.7PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIATHE INTERLINKED AND INTERDEPENDENT NATURE OF THE SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ELEMENTS OF THE FAO AGROECOLOGICAL FRAMEWORKBiodiversity builds resilience in a system.Different species respond in various ways to changing climates,and as a subset of agroecology,agrobiodiversity,3 which promotes the use of a variety of crops or animals,provides insurance against change and contributes to more stable ecosystems.Instead of a dominant species in an agricultural system performing various functions,which can all be impacted by an emerging threat,having a diversity of species leverages their unique response and range of traits,thereby enabling the system to better adapt.Diversity contributes to resiliency and agrobiodiversity can therefore have a positive impact on yields,contributing to local resilient livelihoods and food security.“Agroecology is aimed at the economically responsible cultivation of crops,a fair price for farmers worldwide,and a stronger link between consumer and producer.In other words,it connects agriculture,the natural environment,fair trade relations and respect for the farmer.”Stefan Schller,policy officer for sustainable food at Both ENDS278PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIADue to its established history,holistic approach to agriculture that includes both environmental and social aspects,and clear,well-defined principles,we believe agroecology provides the most robust approach for a deep and urgent transformation of our protein and food systems.DEFINING AGROECOLOGY,REGENERATIVE AGRICULTUREAND NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONSRELATED APPROACHES:REGENERATIVE AGRICULTURE AND NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONSRegenerative agriculture and nature-based solutions are concepts that have similar goals to agroecology.Neither are the same as agroecology,but they share many values and overlapping practices.Regenerative agriculture is an approach to farming that returns more into the environment and society than it extracts.Like agroecology,regenerative agriculture practices have the potential to create more resilient supply chains,restore soil health and enable farmers and businesses to thrive.However,the concept of regenerative agriculture is still new and understanding of the term differ.For some,it is primarily an approach to farming that places emphasis on the importance of fostering soil health,and optimising the carbon sink potential of agricultural soils.For others it is a set of farming practices that entails a different way of thinking about humanitys relationship with the natural world.Compared to agroecology,regenerative agriculture remains less studied.The term focuses on environmental dimensions of sustainability while socio-economic issues including social justice and equity do not have a strong focus or are defined only generally,and lack a framework for implementation.Nature-based Solutions(NbS)are actions that“protect,sustainably manage,and restore natural or modified ecosystems that address societal challenges effectively and adaptively,simultaneously providing human wellbeing and biodiversity benefits.”4 They are simply solutions that work with nature(as compared to purely technology-based solutions,for example)to deliver real change.Ideally they are an integrated approach that can build resilience,deliver a just transition and will be key to achieving the SDGs.Despite its growing popularity,the terms breadth of use has led to confusion on what precisely constitutes a nature-based solution.At present,it is most frequently associated with natural solutions that tackle climate change or natural climate solutions such as mangrove restoration.Therefore,the concept remains vague and runs the risk of being open to widely differing interpretations.Stakeholders that we engaged as part of our research have expressed confusion over what the term actually means.There is also a concern around social justice.Sometimes the proponents of NbS do not consult with indigenous communities or recognise land or cultural rights,as solutions are advocated that work for nature but result in displacement or do not acknowledge how these groups have worked with local ecosystems for many years.89PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIASoutheast Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and faces rising sea levels,heat waves,floods,droughts and more.This will affect millions of people in densely populated areas and coastal zones.Extreme weather events will increasingly affect the regions protein and food production systems for both consumption and exports,putting its economic growth,food security,food and agricultural investments at risk,and negatively affecting the livelihoods of the regions population.According to the Asian Development Bank,Southeast Asia is likely to sustain larger economic losses from climate change than most other areas in the world,with collective losses from agriculture,tourism,energy demand,labour productivity,catastrophic risks,health,and ecosystems expected to reduce GDP by 11%by 2100 from a business-as-usual scenario from 2016.5The regions fast growing population,which the IMF projects will reach 707 million in 2028(a 9%increase from 2018)6 will have increasing impact on the climate from human activity and consumption.This means that the regional food system will need to be bolstering to meet rising demand.In meeting this demand,Southeast Asia has become a deforestation hotspot,with one of the highest rates of deforestation in the world,losing 1.2%of this natural carbon sink while adding around 10%of human-made greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions annually.7,8 While its“long coastlines,high concentration of population and economic activity in coastal areas,reliance on agriculture in providing livelihoods for a large segment of the population,especially those living in poverty,and dependence on natural resources and forestry to drive development”9 further exacerbate its vulnerabilities.Given the interconnected nature of these issues,it is clear that a holistic approach to the regions challenges is needed one that restores soil health,regenerates landscapes,enables diversification of food and energy sources,and enables producers and communities to thrive.Rapid population growth and economic development has increased demand for livestock products and cereals for both human consumption and feedstock.This has in turn put increased strain on agricultural systems and in particular the protein system,which is both a driver of,and will be negatively affected by,climate change.As a major driver of GHG emissions and natural resource degradation,the protein system contributes to its own production challenges by negatively impacting the natural ecosystems that it depends on.10These challenges do not just affect economic growth.Given it is a major net exporter of rice,vegetable oil,fish and fresh fruit,11 they also risk regional food sovereignty and threaten food access and population health.12 The production(and consumption)of staple foods is expected to fall in the coming decades due to climate change.Of note is the impact on rice and fish stocks.In 2019,Southeast Asia was responsible for 72%of the worlds aquatic food products and 90%of global rice production.Fish provided over 50%per capita average animal protein,with 72%of total aquatic foods available for human consumption on the planet being eaten in Southeast Asia,while rice provided 50%of calorie intake for its population.While per capita food and protein availability in Southeast Asia increased by 85.1%from 1961 to 2018,13 production of staple foods essential to most of the regions population is also at risk.Regional food insecurity has increased significantly in recent years,with policymakers focused on establishing food sovereignty.In 2015,when the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)were launched,food insecurity affected just over 100 million people.By 2020,this figure increased to over 125 million.14 In the same year,347 million people could not afford a healthy diet.15 As Figure 2 shows,between 2016 to 2021,despite increased focus from policymakers,regional prevalence of food insecurity has instead increased,while the prevalence of undernourishment saw only a moderate decrease.If production intensification and related natural resource depletion can result in one fifth of the population remaining food insecure,then this puts the sustainability and effectiveness of Southeast Asias food and protein systems in question.SOUTHEAST ASIAS VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE IMPACTSTHE REGIONAL PROTEIN SYSTEM AS BOTH DRIVER ANDCASUALTY OF AGRICULTURAL COLLAPSEWHY IS AGROECOLOGY IMPORTANT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA?910PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAThe adoption of industrialised approaches to help ensure food security and maintain yield growth has resulted in a shift away from traditional agroecology.These approaches have contributed to overfishing,deforestation and less healthy diets.Under business-as-usual it is possible to see further industrialisation of protein production in the region,with connected environmental and social costs.Some of these costs may not be visible or obvious,such as the loss of ecosystem services,and may not be evident until the future.For instance,the reliance on agricultural inputs to sustain yield puts financial pressure on farming communities as the price of inputs fluctuates.If agrochemicals are used,it also decreases soil quality over time,which reduces yield,in turn creating an ever-increasing dependency on inputs over time.Instead of creating a vicious cycle of dependency,applying agroecological practices can support biodiversity and soil health by reducing the reliance on external inputs,thereby reducing costs and protecting yields in the long-run.Such costs can be a significant portion of the farming incomes of many smallholder farmers within the region.The benefits of agroecology for local economies are manifold beyond the direct economic advantages to farmers and local businesses.In areas where agroecology has been embedded,communities have seen increased crop yields,higher incomes for farmers and improved local economies,lower input costs,improved social networks,improved health and reduced healthcare costs.17 Through longer-term thinking and adoption of traditional practices,an agroecological approach creates healthier communities and conserves local ecosystems,which then become more resilient to climate change.Protecting and enhancing biodiversity creates opportunities to explore new food sources and increase diet diversity,which is important in a region with a fast growing population and concerns of nutrition and food security.THE NEED FOR SOUTHEAST ASIAS PROTEIN SYSTEM TO TRANSITION TO AGROECOLOGICAL APPROACHES2016Prevalence of Severe Food Insecurity(%)2.56.716.117.043.3109.12.65.917.117.338.8113.62.65.616.916.836.9111.03.45.822.418.938.6126.44.16.328.020.742.8139.7Number of Severely Food Insecure people(millions)Number of Undernourished people(millions)Figure 2:Food Security and Undernourishment in Southeast Asia*Projected values based on the middle of the projected range,calculated by the FAO Source:FAO16Number of Moderately or Severely Food Insecure People(millions)Prevalence of Moderate or Severe Food Insecurity(%)Prevalence of Undernourishment(%)201820192020*2021*10Unlike other regions in the world,the food system in Southeast Asia is made up of mostly smallholder farms,with an estimated 100 million smallholder farmers in the region.18 The FAO defines smallholders as“small-scale farmers,pastoralists,forest keepers,fishers who manage areas varying from less than one hectare to 10 hectares.Smallholders are characterised by family-focused motives such as favouring the stability of the farm household system,using mainly family labour for production and using part of the produce for family consumption.”19The dominance of smallholder farms makes it difficult to ensure widespread policy adoption,to oversee and ensure actual implementation of policies,and support farmers where lack of implementation is due to capacity constraints or lack of education and expertise.The resource constraint of smallholders and their lack of access to enabling technologies presents an additional cost to a regional transition to agroecological practices.Shifting towards(or back to)more regenerative practices may be seen as a risk that many cannot afford,especially if the benefits cannot THE UNIQUE CONTEXT OF SMALLHOLDER FARMS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA11PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIA“Talking to them(smallholders)about climate change 10 years down the road often does not sync with them.We have to create a product that incentivises them to carry out sustainable practices,and this incentive must be commercially viable(now).”Interviewee11be seen until much later.As one interviewee shared“Once they start to see the yields from inorganic practices,(shifting towards more regenerative practices)will see a huge drop in yield that will take years to build back up.”Due to this unique context it is essential to have human and social values such as solidarity,co-creation,knowledge sharingprinciples that place the farmers at the coreincorporated into any approach or policy in the region.Many governments in the region have provided limited policy support and have let the market lead the way in determining prices.In order to shift towards a more regenerative approach and to embed agroecology into the system,regulatory changes must be more supportive of smallholders.12PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAPolicy approaches to addressing the food security challenge predominantly focus on increasing yield and less on building a healthy,resilient and regenerative protein system.With Southeast Asias expected population growth,20 coupled with climate volatility,the demand for food is expected to increase 40%by 2050.Our discussions with stakeholders suggest that actors within the protein systemcompanies,investors,civil society and policymakersare designing their sustainable protein solutions with a primary,and often only goal of meeting the food security challenge.Some governments,such as in Singapore,have published clear targets to produce 30%of its nutritional needs by 2030 in order to achieve food resilience in the future.21 As food security is etched firmly in the minds of policymakers,it is challenging to shift and diversify their thinking towards policies that focus more on the longer-term resiliency of the food system and less on increasing production yield.The latter tends to incentivise monoculture crops,increase the risk of prophylactic use of antibiotics in livestock farming(thereby contributing to antimicrobial resistance in humans),and create the negative ecological and social consequences already discussed in earlier sections.Such approaches carry real risks of being short-term solutions that do not solve the systemic challenges for the region in the long-term.22 To date,they have also yet to solve the issue of malnutrition in the region.Producing and consuming more versus better or healthier food,has also created the phenomenon of a nutrition paradoxwhere more low nutrition-value food is produced and consumedcalorie intake is increased,but health is decreased.This means that rising levels of obesity can coexist within a region that still suffers from undernutrition in some countries.As Figure 3 shows,obesity is rising in Southeast Asia while the prevalence of stunting(which the World Health Organisation(WHO)attributes most directly to inadequate nutrition)in children remains relatively high.THE FOCUS ON FOOD SECURITY EMPHASISES MORE OVER BETTERWHAT ARE THE BARRIERS TO EMBEDDING AGROECOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES INTO SOUTHEAST ASIAS PROTEIN SYSTEM?Prevalence of Stunting in Children30.555.855.41825.015-4927.47.56.727.2Prevalence of Overweight ChildrenFigure 3:Malnutrition in Southeast Asia*The collection of household survey data on child height and weight were limited in 2020 due to the physical distancing measures required to prevent the spread of COVID-19.Only four national surveys included in the database were carried out(at least partially)in 2020.These estimates are therefore based almost entirely on data collected before 2020 and do not take into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.Source:FAO23Prevalence of Anaemia in WomenPrevalence of Obesity in Adults2012AGE RANGE2020*1213PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAOther than solving for food security,current protein innovations largely orientate towards decarbonisation and limiting the need for agricultural land.24 While tackling the climate and ecological crises are critical challenges,this approach does not address other urgent environmental and social impacts of protein production,hence misses the potential for agriculture to support a socially just and equitable transition(i.e.the restoration and replenishment of planetary and human health).In a region that still requires buy-in from a large number of system actors including smallholders,there needs to be clear social benefits to incentivise producers them to take part in the protein transition.As the FAO states,agroecology has evolved to represent“a transdisciplinary field that includes the ecological,socio-cultural,technological,economic and political dimensions of food systems,from production to consumption.”25 Embedding agroecological principles into the transition ensures social elements have equal weight with ecological considerations.There has been a strong pushand arguably,an overemphasisfor alternative proteins in recent years as a response to the urgent need to decarbonise our food systems,including considerations by some to remove animal farming altogether.Alternative proteins are substitutes for conventional meat,seafood,dairy and eggs and in most cases,attempt to replicate the taste,texture,and appearance of animal products.In 2023,the alternative protein market was valued at an estimated USD 76.3 billion and is projected to reach USD 423 billion by 2033.26 Despite global private investment dropping in 2022 from the peak of 2021 as capital markets waned,global governments tripled their year-on-year(YoY)funding and global plant-based meat sales continued to rise.Countries such as Singapore have invested heavily in alternative proteins in a bid to become a global leader in the sector,bucking the global trend and increasing its private investment into the sector by 100%YoY to reach USD 170 million in 2022.27,28 Aside from producing fewer emissions,alternative proteins claim to offer a variety of other environmental benefits including using less land,energy and water,and no live animals or antibiotics in their products.While they provide a new and alternative pathway for a climate friendly protein system to emerge,alternative proteins as a protein transition are not a silver bullet solution,but a product innovation in response to deeply entrenched systemic challenges.They still run the risk of reinforcing current food system dynamics that rely on mass production,monoculture ingredients and energy intensive processes that have little positive impacts on livelihoods;nor do they shift unequal power dynamics that keep the current systems in place.29 Alternative proteins may also fit in with the existing manufacturing and retail system that align with consumer behaviour and preferences,30 and may therefore not be capable of bringing the transformative shift within the protein system that agroecology can.Consumer mindsets also need to shift as their demands have the power to drive change in the food system.The prevailing belief is that if a product is sustainable,then it is more expensive by default and consumers may not be willing to pay the premium.If a transition to sustainable protein production(at least at the beginning)results in a higher cost of production,consumers will need to pay a premium for the product in the absence of subsidies.However,ceteris paribus,demand growth should drive production growth,which in turn should bring down prices as a result of economies of scale.Until that occurs,consumers may have expectations of quality to compensate them for the higher prices paid.These expectations may be on appearance and texture rather than the sustainability credentials of the product.As one interviewee remarked,“Unfortunately when you have an organic product you dont have the huge size or beautiful look vs an inorganic product.So from a consumer standpoint,it is tough to break that mindset.”Consumers may also have limited understanding and awareness of production practices and their social and ecological implications,therefore relying on producer and manufacturer messaging and transparency.Policy therefore plays a part in educating and spreading awareness.DECARBONISATION AND CARBON MYOPIAALTERNATIVE PROTEINS CONSIDERED AS THE PANACEA FOR THE PROTEIN SYSTEMCONSUMER AWARENESS AND PERCEPTIONS1314PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAAt present,there is no evidence of any systematic and systemic application of agroecological principles across the region.However,our research has unmasked emergent regenerative solutions and models coming out of Southeast Asia.These are described in the signals of change section on page 18.Other opportunities to embed the principles into the transition are outlined here.According to the French development non-government organisation(NGO)GRET,farmers in the Mekong have historically practised subsistence-based integrated farming that combined crops,livestock,and trees.Rotational agriculture has also long been used in rice production,as has the integration of fallow periods in farming cycles to restore soil nutrients,and the use of nitrogen-fixing trees in agroforestry.Many of these practices have shifted due to a combination of government policy and agricultural modernisation across the region.31 Opportunities exist for the return and expansion of such practices,and as evidenced by the Ibis Rice case study on page 16,their application can have multiple positive outcomes.AGROECOLOGICAL APPROACHES ALIGN WITH REGIONAL TRADITIONAL FARMING PRACTICESOPPORTUNITIES TO EMBED AGROECOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES INTO THE PROTEIN TRANSITIONAGROECOLOGYAgroforestryHome garden VAC*PermacultureConservation AgricultureSystem of Rice Intensification(SRI)Organic AgricultureIntegrated Crop Management/Integrated Pest ManagementFigure 4:Main agro-ecological practices in the Mekong countries*VAC is a Vietnamese acronym that stands for Vuon(garden or orchard)Ao(fish pond)and Chuong(animal sheds).It is an integrated,traditional approach to farming.Source:GRET3214Given that many of the countries within Southeast Asia are still industrialising,this presents an opportunity to shape the trajectory of farming practice in the region.While regenerative agriculture practices are gaining interest here,stakeholders we spoke to did not believe that it is being done at scale,but rather at a small-scale farming level.Decades of growth in industrialised farming across the region have made it challenging for farmers to become profitable when operating outside of industrialised practices.15PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIA“People are being taught to use techniques where you need pesticides,fungicides based on the soil ability to generate this amount of rice,fruits etc,you need an external nutrition source.So farmers are addicted to inorganic fertilisers.Its a vicious cycle.If you get out of that cycle you destroy your soil.”Interviewee15Reverting to more traditional farming practices that work with the land instead of against it aligns with with agroecological practice.Referencing these and overlaying them with appropriate technologies that can support their scaling-up,halt the negative impacts of current farming practices,and work towards restoring and rejuvenating the regions landscapes.Agroecological approaches typically result in shorter food supply chains compared to large-scale industrial food production,which can be complementary to the fragmented nature of smallholder production in Southeast Asia(see page 10 for a discussion on the unique context of smallholder farms in the region).16PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAA shift in consumer preferences for sustainably-sourced food is also an opportunity to embed agroecology into the protein value chain.The desire for healthier and sustainable food will drive 55%of food spending in Asia by 2030,equivalent to USD 2.4 trillion.33 As income levels rise in low-and middle-income communities,there has been a transition away from plant-based proteins derived predominantly from cereals,starches and other staple crops34 towards animal protein.35 The consumption of meat alternatives such as tofu and tempeh is common in many Southeast Asian countries and has been for some time.However,protein demand is expected to increase significantly by 2050,with demand for animal-derived proteins expected to double.36 The increase is expected to intensify pressure on land and resources due to the need to produce more animal feed,with continued agricultural expansion posing serious risks to natural habitats and raising GHG emissions.37 There are social consequences too,such as the loss of access to traditional hunting grounds and loss of land rights.Leveraging off conscientious consumer behaviour and desire for healthier food,further awareness can be raised on the externalities created by current protein production.Educating consumers on alternative production pathways such as those applying agroecological principles can help shape demand for sustainable foods domestically,and in countries importing food from Southeast Asia.CHANGES IN CONSUMER PREFERENCESIBIS RICE WILDLIFE CONSERVATION SOCIETYInspired by a mission to save Cambodias critically endangered national bird,the Giant Ibis,the Wildlife Conservation Society launched the Ibis Rice initiative in 2009 to promote and market wildlife-friendly rice grown in the communities located in areas in the northern plains of Cambodia protected for their biodiversity value.Ibis Rice links wildlife conservation to improving livelihoods of villagers whose opportunities are limited by their remote location,with little opportunity to expand their farms and limited market access.Hundreds of affiliated farmers are now the guardians of 500,000 hectares of remote national park land and more than 60 threatened and endangered species in an area traditionally plied by loggers and poachers.Farmers are paid a significant premium(70ove market price)for the pure,long grain jasmine rice coming from a protected area,and a range of products at the top of the Cambodian market has been established.The Ibis Rice team in Cambodia is responsible for purchasing directly from farmers through guaranteed contracts through the processing of the rice all the way to the final pack,keeping the value in Cambodia to sustainable farmer premiums.Since the project began,the critically endangered Giant Ibis,Cambodias national bird,has made a comeback.A partnership of NGOs and government agencies,the project provides local communities with an incentive to engage in conservation,by offering farmers a premium price for their rice if they agree to abide by conservation agreements that are designed to protect the rare water birds and other species that use the protected areas.This has incentivised farmers not to engage in harmful practices such as deforestation and hunting of wildlife.1617PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAAgrobiodiversity is important for building a healthy,resilient food system(see page 6).Changing the narrative around how we address food insecurity challenges away from increasing yield to building resilient food systems could create more focus on diversification as a tangible solution,increasing awareness in value chain actors and creating the channels to amplify agroecological practices.Currently,the majority of proteins globally still come from plant sources by a significant margin,with meat,dairy,fish,shellfish and insects making up the rest,in that order.38 In Southeast Asia,historically,the majority of protein comes from rice and fish.Depending on the location,other lesser sources of protein are eaten including beans,pulses,tofu,seitan,tempeh,meat and poultry.However,poultry is on course to become a predominant source of protein with very high rates of increase forecast to occur in Asia.39 This is due to multiple factors including changing consumer preferences,production capacity,the impact of zoonotic diseases such as swine flu,and population growth.40 Intensive factory farming to meet growing demand will have environmental and health risks,including the growth of antibiotic resistance and the threat of zoonotic diseasesseen by the WHO as two of the most significant risks to humanity.41,42 The principles of agroecology can be applied in the protein system to facilitate the integration of alternative proteins to address multiple issues.An agroecological framework can be applied to provide nutrient-rich,sustainable diets for Southeast Asias rising population,because it embraces both plant and animal farming to create balanced diets and“promotes multiple streams of revenue for small producers”.43 Agroecology can also limit costs from externalities as it“optimises ecological processes,environmental and public health,and well-being while minimising socio-ecological costs from agriculture and food systems.”44The sustainable protein agenda has become highly dynamic.Animal protein producers are taking the need to improve the sustainability of production more seriously,and many are investing in or purchasing plant-based protein and/or cellular protein companies.Policymakers are exploring new economic opportunities for protein production and innovation and even starting to look at the existing tax and subsidy regimes.Innovators continue to develop new novel options,some of which are hybrids of plant and animal proteins,offering the flavour and texture consumers want combined with enhanced nutritional benefits and stronger sustainability credentials.45 These developments provide opportunities to engage with value chain actors to embed holistic,systemic approaches to solutioning and ensure the regions protein transition results in a system that responds to the needs of both planet and people.In the same way that consumers are shifting their preferences towards sustainable and more nutritious food,investors are demanding better ESG credentials from food and agriculture companies in which they invest.This shift has garnered policy support in some countries within the region,such as Singapore,which has taken pre-emptive steps to position itself as a sustainable finance hub.Both investor demand and policy development has been influenced in-part by emerging expectations from regions such as Europe and the pressure on investors from within and outside of the region to invest responsibly will ultimately shape capital allocation decisions.This presents an opportunity for the investment community to shape the food and agriculture value chain and steward food system transition towards sustainable outcomes.Further discussion on the role of financial actors can be found in section 2.DIVERSIFICATION OF PROTEIN SOURCESTHE SHIFTING PROTEIN AGENDA IN SOUTHEAST ASIASHIFTS TO SUSTAINABLE FINANCING APPROACHES 1718PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAIt is also important to consider signals of change46 or niche innovations,which point to a potential development that indicate how the Southeast Asias protein system is changing and provide clues into where the system is moving towards.Following a combination of desk research and interviews,we unearthed interesting case studies and insights that help to explain where agroecological approaches are being used in the protein transition,and give a glimpse of our future:1.RegenX47 is a Singapore-based climate technology financing platform for small agri-businesses in Southeast Asia transitioning to regenerative agriculture.Through their technology,they have become one of Southeast Asias only climate technology companies that is making“regenerative agriculture more profitable than conventional agriculture”.48 Applying what they call the RegenX Flywheel,access to their financing facility is given to small-scale producers who pledge to implement their Regen Ag protocol and track progress.Technical assistance and post-harvest guidance is given to farmers,as well as regenerative agriculture monitoring.As a result,global buyers can source directly from regenerative farms within the region,and farmers receive higher farm-gate prices.Progress towards agroforestry is measured and scored for each agri-business and farm against a Regenerative Agriculture Scale and farmers are incentivized with better financing terms for more progress made.This demonstrates how a data-driven approach can de-risk agri financing for investors while creating real economic benefits for farmers.Consequently,a virtuous cycle where better farming economics incentivizes better practices is created,which in turn raises the security of supply and attracts buyers and more investment.2.The Agroecology Learning Alliance in Southeast Asia(ALiSEA)49 aims to enable local and regional agroecology stakeholders to leverage each others expertise,produce and disseminate evidence-based case studies,and to support a regional transition towards agroecology.While there is a long way to go with embedding agroecological practices,platforms such as ALiSEA aim to catalyse this shift.ALiSEA brings together 150 members who have different backgrounds and approaches to agroecology,and provides a much needed space for knowledge exchange.They recognise the importance of sharing experiences and understanding to support incorporating regenerative practices within farmers,companies and in public policy.3.SEADLING50 is a leading seaweed biotech company that promotes regenerative agriculture.Based in Borneo,Indonesia,the company uses modern technology alongside traditional,community-based farming practices to create unique,traceable seaweed products.SEADLING trains and partners with local Bajau farming communities who use their organic seedlings to grow a steady supply of sustainably farmed seaweed in its natural marine environment.Innovative bio-manufacturing technology is then applied to transform it into nutrient-rich farm feed and food products.Working closely with partners along the entire value chain,the company can certify,trace,and verify quality and sustainability at every stage.They are an example of how leveraging local community knowledge and practice and cultivating a crop within its natural environment while combining this with advanced technology can lead to an innovative,healthy product.ARE WE SEEING ANY SIGNALS OF CHANGE?1819PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAWe believe that it is possible to feed a growing population a healthy diet through agroecological production.In the long-term,doing so can make both economic and ecological sense.A food system transition will result in a diverse protein system made up of traditional foods,as well as new forms of alternative proteins.It will involve moving back from the current trajectory and changing consumption habits and redesigning how food production systems utilise natural resources.Dietary change is a key part of this,moving away from a“Western way”of overconsuming animal-based protein,towards sustainable diets built around a range of foods produced through agroecological practices.In the next section of this paper we look at the critical role financial actors can play in enabling a protein transition that aligns with agroecological principles.Financial actors are critical players that provide the funding support necessary for any system to transition.They are therefore essential to catalysing change and accelerating and sustaining systemic transformation.FINANCING AN AGROECOLOGICAL TRANSITION1920PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIATHE ROLE OF FINANCIAL ACTORS IN EMBEDDING AGROECOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES0221PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAAlthough food systems transformation is key to achieving many of the SDGs and global climate targets,there are clear funding gaps to enable the necessary transitions.The International Food Policy Research Institute estimates this gap will reach USD 350 billion per year by 2030.51 Nowhere is this more evident than in developing regions such as Southeast Asia,where there is inadequate funding to support smallholder farmers,many of whom are already economically challenged,to transition.According to the Climateshot Investor Coalition and Climate Policy Initiative,there is a gap of approximately USD 29 billion in climate finance for small-scale agrifood systems,against estimated unmet general financing needs of smallholder farmers of USD 170 billion annually.52 Agroecological principles provide all system actorsincluding policymakers and financiersa benchmark for best practice.But agroecology requires deep transformation that results in long-term,systemic sustainability,and funding that allows agroecology to take root in national agriculture strategies has fallen short.Even in developed countries,funding has been inadequate.There has been research that shows how from 2016 to 2018,none of the funds from Europe channelled through the FAO,International Fund for Agricultural Development(IFAD)and World Food Programme(WFP)went into any projects supporting transformative agroecology.53The role of private sector financing in filling this gap is important,especially in a region such as Southeast Asia where public financing may be constrained by development challenges and public debt.Private financing is especially beneficial where domestic governance or infrastructure is less established as it can support the development of national regulation and policy across food system sectors.At full scale,including both domestic and foreign investment,private sector financial flows are significant and may also exceed public sector financial flows.It is also known to be more agile and can respond to business funding needs much faster than development or public sector financing.Despite their promising traits,the private sector has yet to close this gap and capitalise on the many opportunities that a regional protein and food system present.For example,Grow Asia estimates the untapped green investment opportunities in the region across the food,agriculture,and forestry sectors to be USD 205 billion per year.54 Instead,resisting barriers such as risk perceptions of investing in these sectors remain.The region have therefore largely remained reliant on donors,concessional funding and development financing from multilateral banks to support transformation of its food production systems.Both concessional and non-concessional funding through these channels have supported food system transition in the region either by providing lenient terms to borrowers who may otherwise be considered unbankable by commercial lenders,or through technical assistance and capacity building.CLOSING THE PROTEIN TRANSITION FUNDING GAPPRIVATE SECTOR FINANCING IS KEYWHAT ROLE CAN FINANCIAL ACTORS PLAY IN CATALYSING AGROECOLOGICAL APPROACHES IN THE PROTEIN TRANSITION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA?2122PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAGiven the fragmented nature of the food,agricultural sectors,and landscape across Southeast Asia,an integrated response is required across the protein value chain and broader food system.The actions of policymakers are thus essential to create an enabling environment that supports financial actors and other stakeholder groups to shift.The absence of significant private sector financing and investment is a barrier to the fast transformation of the protein and food system that is requisite for a just transition.System actors must therefore collectively address the challengesboth perceived and realposed by the financial sector in order to unlock its capital.Financial actors in return must engage with other stakeholders and play a stewardship role in ensuring the capital it provides is applied in a way that actually results in a transitionwhere the outcome is a future-fit protein and food system for the region.In the face of such challenges and current emphasis on efficiency and dependency on market mechanisms,what is the role of financial actors in enabling agroecological principles,which have the potential to systemically transform the protein and food system,to be embedded?POLICY SUPPORT FOR THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IS NEEDED2223PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAAs standalones,each of the 10 elements of the Agroecology Framework defined by the FAO is not new to most practitioners.Most are aware of the elements on an individual basis,applying some or several of the principles,but we have found no evidence to suggest investors are applying them in their entirety as a complete framework into their work.In speaking with financial actors,the term agroecology itself is not used and in its place regenerative agriculture was used more often and understood to be a general proxy(see page 8 for a discussion on their differences).Other terms such as organic farming were well understood.These practices incorporate some of the agroecology principles,but do not specifically require an alignment with social and community welfare,or an holistic approach that is integral to agroecology.Agroecology encompasses a broad range of practices,and it is difficult to judge the degree to which financiers and investors have it on their radar or integrate it into their investment and financing decisions,if at all.There is private sector funding and blended finance solutions that are supportive of climate-smart solutions,regenerative practices,and other elements and subsets of an agroecological approach,but there is very little funding to support a broader systemic transition towards agroecology.Furthermore,despite agroecology having the potential to be increasingly recognised by public policymakers,it currently remains untapped by public funding globally.55 Some funding support has come from the Green Climate Fund(GCF),which has allocated 10.6%of the money invested in agricultural projects into supporting transformative agroecology.Even so,79.3%of agricultural money flows from the GCF are still allocated to conventional agriculture and/or projects related to efficiency approaches.56 For the most part,private sector financing has largely focused on principles that have clear pathways to returns,such as that of efficiency and responsible governance,and look at these mainly in the context of the investee company itself,not as an evaluation of its impact on the wider community or the ecosystem within which it operates.Nevertheless,there is evidence that regenerative agriculture and agroecology are gaining momentum,given the rising number of scientific papers dealing with these topics.57 As the general excitement over alternative proteins has waned from its peak and investors are seeking the next best thing,regenerative agriculture is getting more attention and may be poised to attract the next wave of funding.One area of private funding that remains committed to positive impact is impact investing.For example,many reputable firms incorporate community engagement into their investment design and management of impact performance.However,compared to mainstream investing,impact investing within Southeast Asia remains relatively niche.Investment is still small-scale and at individual project level.GENERAL LACK OF AWARENESS OF AGROECOLOGY AS A COMPLETE FRAMEWORKPRIVATE FINANCE REMAINS FOCUSED ON RETURNSTO WHAT DEGREE IS AGROECOLOGY ON THE RADAR OF FINANCIAL ACTORS WHO ARE FINANCING OR INVESTING IN PROTEIN TRANSITION ACTIVITIES?2324PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIABut,the emergence of impact investing itself is evidence that traditional financing models that focus solely on profit have already been challenged.Taking this one step further,though new and nascent,the concept of regenerative financewhich prioritises sustainability,transparency,and community impact,and operates on principles of circular economy with the aim of creating positive impact and regenerating natural and social systems58is gaining traction.In the interim,public sector finance and policy support remains focused on ensuring food security and continued economic development,with development finance supporting the latter and the flow-on effects of it on social welfare.In the name of food sovereignty,practices such as growing crops in greenfield forests are still pervasive in many countries across the region.Meanwhile,private investment in food security is largely opportunistic,with the sector viewing it as an investment theme,giving birth to new innovations with immense growth potential and therefore inflated returns.This may not align with the principles underpinning agroecology,which prioritises the working relationship between people and the environment to obtain sustainable outcomes and long-term resilience over yield and returns.PUBLIC FINANCING REMAINS FOCUSED ON FOOD SOVEREIGNTY“At the moment,food security is fighting with nature.”Interviewee2425PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAHindering investment into regenerative practices is a general lack of awareness by system actors.Embedding agroecology into commercial farming requires more research and investment to create the awareness and conditions to scale,to prove such practices are viable and have long-term benefits to the planet and people.As more investment is deployed,this creates a feedback loop that would provide the confidence and credibility to farmers and investors alike,in turn driving greater uptake and accelerating the shift towards more regenerative practices.Without demonstrable success and proof that these practices are economically sustainable on a large scale,the investment community will be reluctant to allocate capital into this area;that is,it lacks credibility in the eyes of investors and the benefits of transitioning to them,in light of the costs,are not yet clear.One barrier faced by financial actors is the mismatch between relatively short-term investment time horizons and investment return goals of investors,and the long-term impact of applying agroecological practices,where both monetary and non-monetary returns may be evident much later than an investors time horizon.The drive for short-term gains has instead steered investment towards the benefits of chemical fertilisers,mechanised farming and genetically modified seeds.This makes it difficult for producers to transition away from the use of inputs and practices that enable scale,towards those that are ecologically sound,but where payback may be delayed.This is a significant barrier in a region such as Southeast Asia,where producers are mainly smallholders whose livelihoods are dependent on current harvest yields.Agroecology has no single definition or set of practices;therefore replication of results and scaling solutions can be challenging,and this is seen as a disincentive to investors who may view it as an additional cost factor.By necessity,agroecological approaches are designed for specific landscapes.It is therefore difficult to scale and replicate them across different geographies.This issue is especially relevant in a region where the physical landscape is diverse and existing policies in relation to the protein system are fragmented.The lack of consistency of practice increases the perceived risk of investing into agroecological approaches,given the potential wide variance of returns due to the broad suite of solutions with the whole process yielding results that may be difficult to systematically measure because of the complexity of measuring social and ecological impact.LACK OF INVESTMENT AND RESEARCH TO PROVE CREDIBILITYMISMATCH IN TIME HORIZONSISSUES OF SCALABILITY GIVEN THE CONTEXTUAL NATURE OF AGROECOLOGYWHERE ARE THERE LIKELY BARRIERS OR LIMITATIONS TO FINANCIAL ACTORS CATALYSING AGROECOLOGICAL APPROACHES?2526PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAAgroecology is also often seen to conflict with yield and returns.Because it favours a synergistic,collective,cross-sectoral approach,it is perceived to require more resources,resulting in higher costs.Financial actors fail to recognise that practices that give rise to short-term investment returns and production yields often result in negative social and ecological externalities,and therefore negatively impact returns in the long-run.In measuring impact,financiers face the following challenges:1.A lack of access to farmers in order to assess their bankability and the need for aggregation in a fragmented market(which is especially relevant in Southeast Asia);2.Difficulty in appraising and assessing farmers given lack of tools for assessment;and3.The nature of agriculture itself being a biological process that can be unpredictable and difficult to control.As previously stated,this makes risk quantification difficult and deters investors from allocating capital to the sector.As a result,those that do step in demand outsized returns to compensate them for the risk of investing.Financiers must be able to measure risk and calculate expected returns from investment.This remains difficult without a clear and generally accepted taxonomy and framework for applying agroecological principles to financing.Without the ability to incorporate this into its financial decision-making and disclosures,the sector will continue to be slow-moving in shifting capital in support of agroecology.The taxonomy must clearly differentiate between climate smart agricultural practices,regenerative agriculture,nature-based and nature-focused solutions,and agroecology.A discussion on the related approaches of regenerative agriculture and nature-based solutions can be found on page 8.The agroecological principles are a practice guidance.As such,we recognise they are not investable assets or opportunities that generate returns,but rather a guidance to operating models.However,this does not diminish their relevance or importance to the financial sector as they help identify risks which may lead to financial vulnerabilities.Their application strengthens investees operations by mitigating possible social and ecological risks,and supports a more resilient food system overall,which impacts returns for both investee and investor in the long-run.In the short-term,the questions to ask may be:which financial actor is best placed to finance and catalyse a shift towards agroecological approaches?Which financial mechanism or vehicle is best placed to support this transition?PERCEIVED CONFLICT BETWEEN AGROECOLOGY AND RETURNSLACK OF A CLEAR TAXONOMY AND FRAMEWORK TO AID APPLICATION OF THE PRINCIPLES2627PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIARobeco,together with the The University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainable Leadership(CISL)published the first nature-related financial risk use-case and call to action report in 2022.59 They analysed the impact on listed companies in the food supply chain from exposure to degraded land and quantified the valuation impact.A stress test focusing on Brazil was conducted to examine how soil degradation impacts the financial vulnerability of listed companies.Brazil was chosen because of its key role in expanding the agricultural crop markets globally and given global dependency on its agricultural output.The research explored:1.The impact of an extreme weather event from an operational and stock value perspective on those connected to(and not connected to)degrading land(the stress scenario);2.Which types of companies in the value chain were most exposed to the stress scenario;and3.The extent to which exposure to degraded land increased financial risk.Companies analysed included those in pre-production,production,distribution and consumption parts of the value chain,and were categorised as having local or globally diversified operations,so as to enable conclusions to be drawn about which part of the chain would be impacted and how this would affect both large,diversified companies and small,local operators.The results of the stress test scenario showed a materially negative impact on valuations for those connected to degraded land:The market value of those operating on degrading land declined by 13%.Those on healthy soils saw a valuation uplift of 6%mainly due to their ability to capture crop price rises.The findings have implications further down the chain,e.g.agriculture input companies linked to those operating on degrading land may experience financial loss and/or extended payment terms.There are economic tipping points even for larger companies,where the unpredictability of harvests creates a risk that capital costs exceed what they are able to cover.CASE STUDY:NATURE-RELATED FINANCIAL RISK HOW SOIL DEGRADATION CAN IMPACT ASSET VALUE2728PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAAgroecology aligns with finance sector ESG considerations because it considers wider ecosystem impacts and social issues in addition to environmental impact.As an approach,it addresses the E,S and G of ESG at a systemic level.Agroecological principles offer benefits for both ecological and social well-being that may not be addressed if looking at food systems through a purely economic lens.Agroecology is rooted in ecological processes and seeks to both balance and enhance ecosystem services,60 which aligns well with investor interest in nature-based solutions and emerging recognition of the benefits of working with nature instead of in opposition to it.In searching for bankable or investable projects and assets,if a systemic,holistic approach such as agroecology is not taken by financial actors,then the sector stands to increase the very ESG risks it seeks to mitigate and which threaten investment returns.A distinction therefore needs to be made between NbS and agroecology,as conflation of the two may risk exacerbating negative externalities.For example,if NbS with low biodiversity value is encouraged in the pursuit of climate mitigation and afforestation with non-native monocultures is pursued as an NbS,it could result in maladaptation and reduced biodiversity-based resilience of the landscape.61 Conversely,applying the agroecological principles of diversity(where natural resources are enhanced and protected),and resilience(where biodiversity-based resilience is protected because it is essential to a well-functioning natural ecosystem)would highlight such risks at the outset.SHEPHERDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ENABLING ENVIRONMENT IN SOUTHEAST ASIAEmerging markets such as those of Southeast Asia present untapped investment opportunities that can make a positive impact in sectors such as food and agriculture.The region is characterised by improving infrastructure,increasing sector-targeted policies,and developing regulatory frameworks.With what can be considered relatively small amounts of investment,financiers and investors can promote embedding systemic approaches and steward the adoption of sustainable practices across the protein and food value chain.In doing so,not only do they contribute to the regions economic,environmental,and social development;they help to ensure a food system that is more climate resilient,equitable,inclusive and works in partnership with nature instead of against it.Such a system does not undermine food security and food sovereignty but ensures it for all.To embed agroecological principles into current practices,an enabling environment for both the financial sector and real economy actors needs to be created.There is little incentive for producers,especially smallholders who may be financially constrained,to bear the cost of transitioning to alternative practices.Given that financiers and investors hold the purse strings,they must actively engage with investees and provide them with the necessary incentives and disincentives to transform their practices.Government policy can certainly support investment,but within a market mechanism,the financial sector has a strong role to play in determining which solutions and practices survive and ALIGNMENT BETWEEN AGROECOLOGY AND ESGWHERE ARE THERE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FINANCIAL ACTORS TO CREATE THE CONDITIONS FOR PROTEIN AND FOOD SYSTEM ACTORS TO EMBED AGROECOLOGICAL APPROACHES?2829PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAwhich die,thereby shaping the food system.In the same way,there must be adequate incentives for financial actors.The commercial benefits of embedding these principles into their lending and investment practices,even if not immediate,need to be clearly articulated.If this is assumed to be fair,then what counts as adequate compensation?What would be considered a reasonable hurdle rate for an investor?How can policymakers,producers and other actors in the value chain support this rate being reached in order to crowd-in private sector funding?Larger private sector companies such as agriculture input firms have piloted programmes that support smallholder farmers in crop management,provision of inputs,technical assistance and environmental impact education to enable them to transition their production methods.In return,these firms agree to buy directly from farmers,thereby providing assurance to the producer,while simultaneously helping to improve farming practices.The role that development agencies and government programmes once played is now being taken up by the private sector which can be more agile,have large resources at their disposal,and the ability to scale.These corporations recognise the structural issues in the way that farming is currently being done and the need for an inclusive business model that engages with actors in the value chain to ensure production is sustainable and thereby safeguard supply.At scale,these initiatives have the potential to change the landscape,but unless business models fundamentally change and/or other stakeholders in the value chain,such as financiers,take up their stewardship role,there remains a risk that the underlying motive of profit results in a shallow food system transition instead of deep systemic transformation.Here too lies an opportunity for financial actors to play a leading role in shepherding the behaviours of other value chain actors.SUPPORTING OTHER VALUE CHAIN ACTORS TO EMBED AGROECOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES INTO THEIR PRACTICES2930PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAIn the pursuit of profit and maximum returns,entrepreneurs,investors,and policymakers have largely focused on technological solutions to address everything from climate change to food security looking to AI,digitalisation,seed technology,plant genetics,modern irrigation systems and new industrial inputs to solve these challenges.Despite these new innovations and technological advancement,our protein and food systems remain entrenched in the industrial agriculture model birthed by the green revolution in the last century.The revolution was successful in achieving many of its goals,but there have been both social and environmental costs as a result.As we look to solve the multiple challenges in the current protein system,it pays to examine the way in which we innovate.A new mindset to assess opportunities to invest in food,agriculture and aquaculture.Investment returns from specific technological trends driveand can oftentimes biasinvestment decisions.This can work against less-obviously investible innovation that if received necessary funding,can help achieve a just and regenerative protein system in Southeast Asia.It is therefore beneficial to acquire a new reference to assess opportunities.This ensures the ability to unlock technology that can achieve the biggest positive impact in the protein system across Southeast Asia and facilitate greater adoption of agroecology across the region.Involvement of specialists or specialist investors can help navigate this,as does cross-sectoral collaboration with other system actors.Challenge and evolve the philosophy that informs the development of new innovation.The development of new solutions is underpinned by certain mental models and world views.For example,the linear mindset of“take-make-waste”has developed innovation that has benefitted us but also harmed our planet.We are seeing a burgeoning of innovators who now embrace a circular mindset when innovating.By embracing agroecological principles,entrepreneurs and investors can start to take a broader long-term view and innovate to achieve whole system benefits,instead of a narrow perspective that answers only to individual needs.Moving from pure innovation to embracing entrepreneurship.This will bridge the gap between innovators and investors.Incentivising and developing entrepreneurial capability will lead to more“investible”innovation,and lead to wider adoption by customers or users and in the long-run,generate sustainable returns.In its 2019 report titled Agroecological and other innovative approaches,the High Level of Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition(HLPE)discusses the distinction between innovation and invention.It highlights that innovation is essential to bringing about deep food system transformation,and that it“encapsulates how people will do things differently in the future than they have in the past.”62 Innovation is distinct from,not necessarily induced by,and possible without invention.63 It is“the dissemination of something new in a given context,not something new in absolute terms.”64 This distinction raises three important points that should be considered by financial and other system actors when evaluating investment opportunities:1.Because true innovation comes from behavioural change,an invention that seeks to be absorbed into existing value chains and applies existing processes and practices risks having minimal real impact.2.Dissemination is essential,but innovations that fail to scale in an ecologically safe and socially just way risk becoming irrelevant in an increasing climate of social and ecological awareness.3.Innovation is contextual and can only have real value if it is responsive to the needs of the system within which it is applied.The criteria of newness is unnecessary,but consideration of externalities created now and from future application is essential.REFRAME HOW INNOVATION IS ASSESSED,VALUED AND DEVELOPEDWHAT ACTIONS CAN BE TAKEN TO CREATE THE CONDITIONS FOR CHANGE?3031PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAWe find ourselves nearly a century after the green revolution at a different juncture and with a new understanding of the inter-relationship between the social and environmental dimensions of our food systems.We have a new set of challenges,the address of which requires a different set of actions and a different approach to innovation.“Investors are usually led by trends theyre always chasing the next big thing,but not implementing the last best thing.”Interviewee3132PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAThere exists a prevailing belief that returns are a necessary sacrifice when investing for impact.We cannot deny that there is a cost to every dislocation in the short-term,but measurement of the net return of investing needs to take account of transition costs relative to the overall reduced costs from negative externalities,costs borne by competitors as the whole system transitions,and long-run investment returns(versus short-term return targets).Not only do our business models need to change,but so do our financing models.At the root of this is the way in which investors and financiers perceive risk,measure it,and incorporate it into their financing and investment decisions.Investors need to look beyond current transition risks and costs of acting and start incorporating the risks and costs of inaction.Investors have been signalling concerns of the externalities caused by the current protein system for some time.Many have been focused on the reputational risks to food companies and their stakeholders if they fail to make measurable commitments to reducing negative supply chain impacts.Agroecological principles offer an opportunity to build a framework for protein system transition within the region that can answer some of these concerns,addressing all dimensions of risk at a systemic level.Based on the findings of this enquiry there are some clear questions that need to be discussed when seeking to identify the role financial actors play in embedding agroecological principles into the protein transition in Southeast Asia.These questions would benefit from deeper collective inquiry amongst diverse stakeholders in the protein system.Where might stakeholders and the finance community intervene to shift the trajectory of the protein transition in the region towards agroecology?What are the implications for the health and resilience of Southeast Asias future food systems if the principles continue to be absent?What will it mean for investors?What would it take for the food system in Southeast Asia to shift?How can the narrative shift from the productionist food security framing to one that delivers true food security?How can the financial community drive change?What are the short-term and long-term opportunities for them to do so?What is the role of the public sector and how can it be catalysed?SHIFT RISK PERCEPTIONS TO ALLOW STRUCTURAL CHANGE TO OCCURCOLLABORATE TO ENABLE SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION3233PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIATo apply the agroecological principles,investors need to think differently.Understanding that it is not just a set of agricultural practices,they will need to take a longer-term approach to returns and rethink their perceptions of risk.Agroecology addresses the entire food system(production to consumption)by taking the best of all innovations compatible with the principles of agroecology and combining them with traditional and farmer knowledge.It is a holistic,integrated approach to reach economic,environmental,climate,health,social and cultural objectives.As stakeholders in a common society,we need to define a just and regenerative protein and food system in Southeast Asia,built on agroecological principles.Financial actors play a critical role as their actions and behaviours are crucial to enabling the change we need.Through this whitepaper,we hope to start new conversations and build on existing ones with stakeholders who share this vision.NEXT STEPS TOWARDS CHANGE3334PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAREFERENCES1 FAO,2019.Hundred and Sixty-third Session;The Ten Elements of Agroecology.Available at:https:/www.fao.org/3/ca7173en/ca7173en.pdf2 BothEnds and Oxfam,2022.How Agroecology Can Help Realize More Inclusive and Climate-Resilient Food Systems.Available at:https:/www.bothends.org/en/Whats-new/Press/New-report-investment-in-agroecology-necessary-for-healthy-global-food-system/3 Agrobiodiversity is a subset of biodiversity.It is the variety and variability of animals,plants and microorganisms at the genetic,species and ecosystem levels that provide food and non-food agricultural products.It is central to sustainable food systems and diets.4 IUCN,2016.Nature-based Solutions to address global societal challenges.Gland,Switzerland:IUCN.p6.Available at:https:/portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/2016-036.pdf5 ADB,2016.Southeast Asia and the Economics of Global Climate Stabilization.Available at:https:/www.adb.org/publications/southeast-asia-economics-global-climate-stabilization6 IMF,2024.Population.Available at:https:/www.imf.org/external/datamapper/LPWEO/VNM/IDN/PHL/MMR/MYS/KHM/LAO/THA/SGP/BRN/SEQ7 Deforestation in Southeast Asia,2024.What is deforestation?Available at:https:/blogs.ntu.edu.sg/hp3203-1718-s2-04/hello/8 Lai,2022.Deforestation in Southeast Asia:Causes and Solutions.Available at:https:/earth.org/deforestation-in-southeast-asia/9 ADB,2009.The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia:A Regional Review(p.18)Available at:https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/29657/economics-climate-change-se-asia.pdf10 FAO.(2022).The future of food and agriculture-Drivers and triggers for transformation.The Future Agriculture,no.3.Rome.https:/doi.org/10.4060/cc0959en11 OECD-FAO,2023.Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032;Regional Outlook:South and Southeast Asia.Available 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https:/www.fao.org/documents/card/en?details=cc0639en16 Ibid.17 GIST Impact Report,2023.“Natural Farming Through a Wide-Angle Lens:True Cost Accounting Study of Community Managed Natural Farming in Andhra Pradesh,India.”GIST Impact,Switzerland and India.https:/futureoffood.org/insights/true-cost-accounting-of-community-managed-natural-farming-in-andhra-pradesh-india/18 WWF,2021.Unlocking Smallholder Finance for Sustainable Agriculture In Southeast Asia.Available at:https:/ FAO,2013.Family Farming Knowledge Platform.Available at:https:/www.fao.org/family-farming/detail/en/c/273864/#:text=Smallholders are small-scale farmers,one hectare to 10 hectares20 Von Kameke,2022.Total forecasted population in Southeast Asia in 2035,by country.Available at:https:/ Singapore food agency,2024.30 by 30.Available at:https:/www.ourfoodfuture.gov.sg/30by30/35PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIA22 Forum for the Future,2023.Creating sustainable value chains:Case for Action.Available at:https:/www.forumforthefuture.org/Handlers/Download.ashx?IDMF=90f38f19-a1c3-4c66-b31a-f32f6f98488223 AO,IFAD,UNICEF,WFP and WHO,2022.The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022.Repurposing food and agricultural policies to make healthy diets more affordable.Rome,FAO.https:/doi.org/10.4060/cc0639en24 Forum for the Future,“Protein Challenge Southeast Asia Action Sprint 1 report”.https:/www.forumforthefuture.org/Handlers/Download.ashx?IDMF=36c5ba01-37be-43bf-a60e-fee7284422df25 FAO,2024.Agroecology Knowledge Hub.Available at:https:/www.fao.org/agroecology/overview/en/#:text=Farms and ecosystems managed through, and improving communities livelihoods.26 Future Market Insights,2022.Alternative Protein Market Outlook(2023 to 2033).Available at:https:/ GFI,2023.Alternative proteins in APAC:2023 STATE OF THE INDUSTRY REPORT.Available at:https:/gfi-apac.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/GFI-2023-APAC-SOTIR_v03.pdf28 We note that according to GFI in the above report,the first half 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Green,2022.Hybrid foods“strike a balance”between sustainable eating and optimal flavor without compromise.Food ingredients first.Available at:https:/ Forum for the Future:The Futures Centre,2024.FAQ.Available at:https:/www.thefuturescentre.org/faq/#what-is-a-signal-of-change47 RegenX,2024.Home page.Available at:https:/regenx.ag/48 Asia business outlook,2023.Agri-Tech Startup RegenX Secures$500,000 In Pre-Seed Funding.Available at:https:/ 49 ALiSEA,2024.Who are we?Available at:https:/ali-sea.org/who-are-we/50 Seedling,2024.Home page.Available at:https:/ International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI).2022.2022 Global food policy report:Climate change and food systems.Washington,DC:International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI).p.48 https:/doi.org/10.2499/978089629425752 CPI Daniela Chiriac,Harsha Vishnumolakala,Paul Rosane,2023.The Climate Finance Gap for Small-Scale Agrifood systems:A growing challenge.Climate Policy Initiative.p.v Available at:https:/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/The-Climate-Finance-Gap-for-Small-Scale-Agrifood-Systems.pdf53 Julie E.Kim(Global Policy Forum),December 2022.Food sovereignty and agroecology:Policy contradictions and funding gaps,Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy(IATP).Available at:https:/www.iatp.org/food-sovereignty-agroecology-policy-contradictions54 Grow Asia,2023.Responsible Investing.Available at:https:/www.growasia.org/responsible-investing55 Both ENDS,November 2022,Factsheet:Finance for Agroecology.Available at:https:/www.bothends.org/uploaded_files/document/Factsheet_Finance_for_Agroecology.pdf56 Coopration internationale pour le dveloppement et la solidarit(CIDSE).2020.Policy Briefing September 2020.FINANCE FOR AGROECOLOGY:MORE THAN JUST A DREAM?An assessment of European and international institutions contributions to food system transformation.p.6.Available at:https:/www.cidse.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/CIDSE-Agroecology-and-Finance-Briefing-Sept-2020-1.pdf57 Giller KE,Hijbeek R,Andersson JA,et al.(2021b)Regenerative agriculture:An agronomic perspective.Outlook on Agriculture 50(1):https:/doi.org/10.1177/003072702199806358 Raj,Aditja(2023)The Next Frontier in Finance:Web3,DeFi,ReFi and Impact Investment online,LinkedIn.Accessed 17 December 2023.Available at:https:/ Robeco and University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership(Robeco&CISL),2022.How soil degradation amplifies the financial vulnerability of listed companies in the agricultural value chain.pp.4-5,pp.4-20.Available at:https:/www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/files/robeco-cisl_nature-related_financial_risk_use_case_-_land_degradation_vfinal2.pdf 60 Clara Dell,March 2023.What Is Agroecology?Sentient Media.Available at:https:/sentientmedia.org/agroecology/61 Seddon N.,Chausson A.,Berry P.,Girardin Ccile A.J.,Smith A.,Turner B.January 2020.Understanding the value and limits of nature-based solutions to climate change and other global challenges.The Royal Society.Available at:https:/royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2019.012062 HLPE.2019.Agroecological and other innovative approaches for sustainable agriculture and food systems that enhance food security and nutrition.A report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security,Rome.p.53.Available at:https:/www.fao.org/3/ca5602en/ca5602en.pdf63 Ibid.,and Schumpeter,J.A.1939.Business cycles:a theoretical,historical and statistical analysis of the capitalist process.New York,USA,McGraw-Hill.Chapter III,B.The Theory of Innovation.pp.84-100.Available at:https:/ World Bank.2010.Innovation policy:a guide for developing countries.Washington,DC.p.2.Available at:https:/openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/246037PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis report is written by Duncan Williamson,Karen Sim,Mareyah Bhatti,Sumi Dhanarajan,and Vi Nguyen,with support from Annabel Johnstone,Fern Yu and Joshua Soo.We would like to thank the experts who shared their insights with us for this paper,some of whom have been quoted in this paper anonymously.We would also like to thank Kavita Prakash-Mani of Dragonfly Advisory for her guidance in shaping the focus of the report.ABOUT FORUM FOR THE FUTUREForum for the Future is a leading international sustainability non-profit.For more than 25 years weve been working in partnership with business,governments and civil society to accelerate the shift towards a just and regenerative future in which both people and the planet thrive.As our environmental,social and economic crises intensify,the world is rapidly changing,with multiple transitions already reshaping how we all live and work.But will we go far enough,and fast enough?Forum is focused on enabling deep transformation in three game-changing areas:how we think about,produce,consume and value both food and energy,and the purpose of business in society and the economy.Were working with ambitious and diverse change-makers to shift how they feel,think,act and collaborate to drive systemic change for sustainability.www.forumforthefuture.org LinkedIn|Instagram|X|FacebookABOUT GROWGROW is an ecosystem catalyst advancing innovation,sustainability,and resilience in the food system.Were on a mission to inspire and accelerate extraordinary founders who are developing technology solutions that deliver positive impact for people,place,and planet.Through our fund and accelerator programmes we work with startups to supercharge their growth on the global stage.www.gogrow.co LinkedIn|Instagram|X|Facebook|YouTubeABOUT PROTEIN CHALLENGE SOUTHEAST ASIAOur food system needs reimagining.Protein can be a lens through which we look at food,because the protein system is a keystone element of the wider food system.The way we produce and consume protein has significant implications for our climate,biodiversity and human health.In response to the global challenges we face to ensure our food systems are sustainable,and to the specific challenges we face within the region,Forum for the Future launched the Protein Challenge Southeast Asia initiative in 2021.The initiative seeks to challenge existing models by challenging the assumptions upon which they are built and applying systems thinking to help redesign a new protein system.It does this by bringing together a broad cross-section of actors in the protein value chain in a series of Action Sprints to collectively address current and future food system challenges.Each sprint focuses on a different aspect of the protein system.Within each sprint,participants are equipped with systems tools and frameworks to be able to diagnose the current protein system and vision a new one for the future.Importantly,through this process participants realise their own role and agency,enabling them to think and act systemically as stewards of the protein system.This work has been generously supported by Singapores Economic Development Board.
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Cotton 2040 Impact ReportAccelerating systemic change towards a just and regenerative cotton sectorCotton 2040Published November 20232Cotton 2040ContentsForeword.3Executive summary.5Introduction to Cotton 2040.8Key achievements.11How we approached measurement and outreach.16Challenges.19Stakeholder engagement and outcomes 21Learning and recommendations.25What next?.Resources and tools2931FOREWORD3Cotton 2040Cotton is an indispensable part of our daily lives from the clothes we wear to the textiles within our homes and businesses.Yet,in the midst of its ubiquity,an intricate supply chain remains hidden across producing,processing,manufacturing,consuming,and end-of-life that brings this remarkable fibre to fruition.In spite of the pervasiveness of cotton in our lives,and the central importance of it to many worldwide,the cotton value chain is simultaneously at risk from the climate emergency and also afflicted with socio-economic inequalities.For a staggering 350 million people worldwide,cotton is more than a crop;it is their lifeline,a source of livelihood.Meanwhile,for the rest of us,the story behind the crop is often overlooked.Cotton 2040s impact extends far beyond its conclusion in 2023,leaving a powerful legacy in the global cotton industry through the resources and tools created,and by asking the industry to imagine and adopt transformative behaviours that are more commensurate with the needs of both people and planet.Of course,the past eight years have not been without their wins and hard lessons.Theres no panacea here,although pathways to building a far more future-fit value chain and industry are clearer.Hannah CunneenCotton 2040 Project DirectorForum for the Future4Cotton 2040The reflections in this report are insights shared in service to the many stakeholders across Cotton 2040,across all cotton-growing regions,and in the knowledge of just how much harder it will become to rely on cotton if we dont collaboratively challenge the status quo with great depth and urgency.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5Cotton 2040The systemic social,environmental and economic challenges that exist within the cotton industry were the impetus for the Cotton 2040 initiative,a multi-year collaboration convened by Forum for the Future,and involving partners and stakeholders from across the cotton value chain.This report provides the concluding updates from the Cotton 2040 initiative,sharing key findings from the three focus areas and four topline recommendations to make cotton a climate resilient,agriculturally regenerative,and socially equitable crop.The impact of Cotton 2040 is evident in the success stories of the initiatives participating brands and retailers.One participating brand,for instance,initially lacked concrete goals but,inspired by Cotton 2040,now aims to achieve 100%sustainable cotton sourcing by the end of 2023.M&S embarked on its sustainable sourcing journey in 2012 and,with the support of Cotton 2040,achieved 100%sourcing from Better Cotton,Fairtrade,or Organic and Recycled certifications by 2019.Similarly,Burberry,an active participant since 2015,has committed to sourcing 100rtified organic and traceable cotton by the 2029/30 financial year,currently sourcing 31rtified organic cotton and conducting a traceability pilot.Ramatex,another participant,has not only shaped itssustainability strategy with the help of Forum but also expanded its efforts into various sustainability strands,including innovations in other fibers and labor rights initiatives,showcasing the enduring impact and wide-reaching influence of Cotton 2040.Provided in this report is a set of tools and resources freely available to support accelerated action by those engaged in this important commodity,and particularly to enable private sector action.Understanding the current and future risks to cotton that climate change presents was focus area one.In partnership with WTW,we developed the Global Cotton Climate Risk Tool to identify key climatic hazards across cotton growing regions.With a deep-dive analysis of the relationship between socio-economic inequalities and climate vulnerability in cotton growing and producing regions in India,we clearly demonstrated the need for comprehensive future-facing approaches to climate adaptation and resilience-building in the cotton value chain in allregions worldwide.The Global Cotton Climate Risk Tool provides the basis upon which to take informed action:in building socio-economic adaptive capacity,regenerative and resilient agriculture,and in identifying where socially just transitions will need to occur.Focus area two focused on sustainable cotton standards for industry making them more comprehensible,harmonising sustainability impact metrics embedded across them through the Delta Framework,and by6Cotton 2040building brand capacity to better navigate the standards.This helps brands to align their own level of ambition and commitment with the varying levels of ambition towards just and regenerative outcomes that the different standards represent.The level of transformational change needed for the cotton value chain to be resilient in a changing climate and which supports and mainstreams sustainable production and livelihoods requires new ways of thinking,acting,and doing business.This was the focus of focus area three,in which we developed and trialled new business models.Within the context of a burgeoning ecosystem services market,we designed regenerative cotton protocols that were trialled with US cotton farmers across 2300 acres in four states.Farmers were incentivised to adopt these protocols through financing mechanisms and technical support,and participating brands committed to purchasing the cotton quantity produced through the pilot.Systemic impact can be challenging to identify,quantify and attribute,so through the Cotton 2040 initiative we developed a rubrics framework to assess impact in progressive businesses,to help them lead the charge and inspire others by better articulating progress and impact.In this report we share this impact framework as well as sharing impacts and outcomes across communications and outreach,and partnerships all critical pillars for success in a multi-stakeholder collaboration.We share7Cotton 2040some of the challenges we experienced during Cotton 2040 notably lack of alignment across the value chain,and a lack of shared clarity on what ambition for change that is commensurate with the level of the issues faced looks like in practice.Finally,we share our four key recommendations which are centred around:1.Enabling the shift from standards as an end goal to being the start of a journey to traceability,and moving towards the mass-scaling of much more sustainable ways of producing cotton.2.Raising the level of ambition around cotton standards to better enable brands and retailers to lead change.3.Calling for a shift in consumer mindsets and narratives,which in turn will enable SMEs to also lead and adopt in the face of much-needed change.4.Calling for transition finance and de-risking options which enable producers to start and scale regenerative agriculture.Cotton is at risk,and with it the livelihoods of many millions of people across the world who rely upon it.We hope that these findings,and the tools and resources that underpin them,will continue to create and accelerate change towards a resilient,regenerative and just cotton sector.INTRODUCTION TO COTTON 20408Cotton 2040Cotton,a key global commodity,spans 31%of textile fibre use and occupies 2.5%of arable land.Produced annually across 80 countries,worth$50 billion USD,it supports 350 million people.Climate change and human rights challenges threaten its future.Sustainable practices offer a solution,but oftentimes,industry-wide coordination is lacking.Cotton 2040 was an eight-year initiative(2015-2023)by international sustainability non-profit Forum for the Future which aimed to accelerate progress and maximise the impact of existing sustainable cotton initiatives,bringing together over 50 leading international brands and retailers,sustainable cotton standards,traders,over 15 processors and farmers,and other stakeholders across the value chain.Cotton 2040 envisaged a sustainable global cotton industrywhich is resilient in a changing climate;which uses business models that support sustainable production and livelihoods;andwhere sustainably produced cotton is the norm.This report provides four recommendations from the Cotton 2040 initiative to create and accelerate change towards a resilient,regenerative and just cotton sector.We extend our gratitude to all the partners,participants,and supporters who have been instrumental in making Cotton 2040 a success.A special thanks to our funders,Laudes Foundation,for their generous support and commitment to driving positive change in the cotton sector.Disclaimer:The Cotton 2040 initiative included industry stakeholders such as producers,manufacturers,brands,retailers,cotton standards,programmes,traders and textile processors.The content,impact,and insights within this report have been made possible by the generous funding provided by the Laudes Foundation.The observations and suggestions in this report solely represent the perspective of Forum for the Future,and not of its partners.9Cotton 2040INTRODUCTIONTO COTTON 204010Cotton 2040“Cotton 2040 was conceived because the story of cotton needed to change.There are too many fragmented initiatives not speaking to each other,no agreed metrics for reporting,and brands not understanding their last tierproducers.Climate change and poor returns for farmers pose risks to the future of cotton.”-Anita Chester,Head of Fashion Materials,Laudes FoundationKEY ACHIEVEMENTS11Cotton 2040Cotton 2040An overview of the initiatives key achievements.There is worryingly little climate-related information and coordination across the cotton sector on how to respond to current and forthcoming impacts to the industry.When the initiative first set out to discuss climate mitigation and adaptation needs in order to achieve resilience,it quickly became apparent that people and organisations knew climate change was impacting cotton producers and yields,but the data wasnt available to demonstrate where,what and who it was most deeply impacting.Cotton 2040 therefore set out to provide a global-first for the industry-a Global Cotton Climate Risk Tool which outlines key climatic hazards impacting cotton growing regions.The tool not only details data-backed concerns for the whole industry,but led us to important conversations with industry actors on a)the need for cross-sectoral collaboration,b)just transitions when making sourcing decisions,and c)the intersectionality and compounding impacts of cotton growing in the face of the climate emergency.We also published a Global Cotton Risk Report and one specific to India to accompany and give depth to our analysis.How to use these tools:There is no longer a question of how badly the cotton sector will continue to fare as the climate emergency is further realised.Instead,we can now focus on what we do with that information to protect and promote ecological replenishment and equity.As an industry actor,you can use the Global Cotton Climate Risk Tool to see climate risk scores for twelve climate indicators.The Global Cotton Risk Report,and the India Analysis Report,provide research findings on the relationships between physical climate risks and socio-economic vulnerabilities.ACHIEVEMENTS IN FOCUS AREA 1:Climate adaptation and resilience 13Cotton 204014Cotton 2040We saw considerable impact in demystifying the burgeoning industry of sustainable cotton standards to increase uptake of sustainable cotton,primarily through three main interventions.1.The CottonUp guide-A digital resource signposting key information from leading global standards and codes,case studies of pioneering brands,and detailed guidance on terminology and producing regions.The website was translated into German and Japanese,and receives 50,000 visitors annually from countries from across the world,including India,Japan,Australia and the US.How to use this tool:If you work in the apparel industry,you can use the guide to develop and implement sourcing strategies,in particular across multiple sustainable cotton standards such as organic,Fairtrade or the Better Cotton Initiative.2.Harmonising sustainability impact metrics through the Delta Framework-The first standardised way for commodity sectors to collect farm-level data,monitor and report progress on sustainability in the cotton industry,which was proposed to the ISEAL Innovations Fund by Better Cotton.The project was developed together with the Global Coffee Platform(GCP),the International Cotton Advisory Committee(ICAC)and the International Coffee Association(ICO).How to use this framework:Read the framework for best practices,methodologies and tools on how private or public entities can effectively measure and communicate sustainability information to their stakeholders.3.Building the capacity of 11 brands at various stages of maturity in sustainable cotton procurement-In partnership with Anthesis,this resulted in the participating brands making commitments to increasing the volumes of sustainable cotton as well as implementing procurement.ACHIEVEMENTS IN FOCUS AREA 2:Increasing uptake of sustainable cotton 15Cotton 2040Forum worked closely with industry actors to identify the characteristics that uphold cottons current value chain and business model,and readily discussed whether these characteristics drive just and regenerative outcomes for all stakeholders.It was agreed that the cotton industry must operate in new ways in order to better protect people working within the industry,as well as the planet.The emergence of ecosystem services markets is one possible model that could offer both ecological replenishment and drive social equity,and was therefore chosen as a model to pilot out and learn from in Cotton 2040s final year of implementation.Forum partnered with key technical providers and networks to design the first“regenerative”cotton protocols for the burgeoning US ecosystem services market and launched a pilot aiming to enable US cotton farmers to adopt regenerative practices through offering financing and technical support.Not only did our consortia design scope-three level protocols for regenerative cotton,this pilot initiative aims to(a)better understand the motivations,benefits and improvements required by these new market models and marketplaces,(b)engage with and track the financial flows of such models,(c)build stronger collaboration,dialogue and regenerative commitments across the somewhat disparate cotton value chain.The pilot works with cotton producers across Alabama,Arkansas,Texas,and Tennessee to trial the protocols on 2,300 acres by implementing regenerative practices,per the new protocols,such as water reduction methods,nutrient management,reduced tillage,and cover crops.Upon the conclusion of Cotton 2040,the initiative is now being further managed and monitored by private sector partners.The pilots cotton is being grown in the 2023 season,with outcomes being assessed in the late 2023 harvest,verified in 2024.Corporate buyers can purchase these verified credits to help meet their supply chain sustainability targets,and-critically-must commit to purchasing the cotton quantity produced through the cotton pilot.Ongoing lessons are being gleaned throughout 2023 and 2024,with further ambitions for scaling and replication in the 2024 growing season.To learn more about the pilots,read our infographic providing key insights,or get in touch with Hannah Cunneen.ACHIEVEMENTS IN FOCUS AREA 3:Business models HOW WE APPROACHED MEASUREMENT AND OUTREACH16Cotton 2040Forum worked with the Laudes Foundation through an iterative design process to put in place a robust framework for Monitoring,Evaluation and Learning(MEL)for Cotton 2040.The co-designed rubrics framework supported progress towards outcomes,put impact front and centre throughout the programme,and focused on two areas in particular:1.Progressive businesses lead the change,which encourages others to follow and lays the foundation for systemic change:Cotton 2040 worked towards aligning key players in the cotton system on the change needed,catalysing collaborative action to adapt to the changing climate,and empowering brands to embrace sustainable cotton.2.Redefined value to refocus the system on what really matters:Cotton 2040 aimed at a shift towards industry-wide consensus on the data and approaches needed to inform strategy,alongside new business models and practices that demonstrate a shift in how value is defined.17Cotton 2040Such a strong impact and MEL framework is a useful way for the industry to think about impact:it moves the dial for market transformation beyond the widespread assumption that engaging internal stakeholders and communicating success alone bring sufficient value.That being said,external communications and outreach,as well as partnerships and collaborations,played a critical role in the Cotton 2040 initiative.Communications and outreachHaving a skilled communications team based in the UK,India and Singapore helped extend the reach of insights and tools to support changemakers even beyond Cotton 2040.Since 2016,we have showcased Cotton 2040 at at least one major industry conference each year,excluding the gap due to COVID-19 restrictions.Webinars,roundtables and masterclasses have been attended by at least 780 people since 2020,mostly around climate adaptation.Media coverage and reach,most notably on the climate risks analysis report and toolkit,has been strong across mainstream,trade,business,insurance and sustainability titles in key cotton-producing regions,including China,India,Pakistan and the US.Partnerships and collaborations have extended our reach further.18Cotton 2040Partnerships and collaborationWe fostered strong partnerships with Anthesis,WTW,Ecosystem Services Markets Consortium,the US Cotton Trust Protocol and Textile Exchange.Our delivery partners had a high level of ambition,were collaborative on design,delivery and problem solving,and have been highly communicative.They brought different perspectives,provided complementary technical expertise,and unlocked conversations.We also had strong reciprocal relationships with steering group and working group members,who engaged on multiple levels(e.g.one-to-one discussions,conferences,communities of practice,initiatives).This supported cross-learning and reach.Lastly,Forums unique approach to change-making was a major success factor for Cotton 2040.Forum applies two core approaches:system change and futures.The use of both futures and system change in design and delivery directly contributed to Cotton 2040s progress towards outcomes.At the project-inception stage,Cotton 2040 was designed using insights from Fashion Futures and Cotton 2040 scenarios in addition to systems diagnosis and stakeholder engagement.This enabled a strong vision grounded in evidence and understanding of the current system and likely scenarios.Meanwhile,system change is another important part of Forums approach.Feedback from Cotton 2040s working groups and participants in activities such as the climate adaptation roundtables highlighted that system-change tools and frameworks supported thinking on how change happens.The rubrics impact framework above was well-suited to system-change initiatives such as Cotton 2040.CHALLENGES19Cotton 2040The main challenges experienced by the Cotton 2040 initiative stem from working within a cotton sector that is unconducive to change.Various systemic and external challenges also presented themselves during this time period.Piloting business models is challenging when there is no alignment between brands,retailers,standards or civil society organisation on how to define regenerative in relation to cotton production.In addition,established standards are important to brands and retailers to report on how they are meeting their commitments,but these do not include regenerative definitions or requirements.The standards that do include regenerative criteria-Regenerative Organic Certified and RegenAgri-are expensive.The Xinjiang human rights crisis was a major external factor in the progress towards sourcing sustainable cotton.Our response was to design a capacity building programme to teach participants that sustainable sourcing is a continual improvement process,of which certification is a minimum entry point.However,the crisis meant that the time was not right to engage investors and we missed the opportunity for outreach to this key stakeholder group as a result.Economic headwinds and disruption due to COVID-19,inflation and cost of living increases have made fundraising difficult.One example of how this affected progress is that,while traceability and transparency became a priority over the lifetime of Cotton 2040,and there was interest in a traceability pilot from participating brands,Forum did not have the resources to capitalise on this,or to adapt content of the existing programme to cover traceability substantively.The financial difficulties within the cotton industry itself.Retailers through to cotton producers,alike,were and continue to be realised as Cotton 2040 came to a close.Many businesses and cotton actors look to secure as much financial resilience as possible,rather than looking to rise to the much-needed challenge of experimenting and innovating,when really the climate emergency requires bolder and more intentional commitment and action.Navigating the intricate landscape of context,language,and cultural differences poses a significant hurdle for international initiatives like Cotton 2040.While we had strong participation across several countries,Forum is a predominantly English-speaking organisation and this created challenges in engaging some stakeholders,for example,in Turkey,Pakistan,India,and Brazil.There are also cultural differences,for example,in India and Pakistan you need to work through the public sector to achieve systemic transformation,rather than Forums usual audiences of the investment community or the private sector.“The system right now is unconducive.Individual grants are making small contributions.The system is moving in fashion but still unconducive.”-Litul Baruah,Senior Programme Manager,Laudes Foundation20Protein Challenge Southeast AsiaSTAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AND OUTCOMES21Cotton 2040Stakeholders and their rolesThe initiative aimed to convene cotton industry actors together to drive impact through collaboration,knowledge exchange and collective action on common challenges.As such,the design of the project involved a wide range of stakeholders that evolved as the programme did.The programme identified several stakeholder groups that would be critical to engendering transformation.These included:1.Pioneering fashion brands and retailers both multinationals operating globally and those in key regions such as North America and Asia(predominantly Japan and India)that have a higher proportion of power and opportunity to change,acting as catalysts and influencers on the rest of the industry.2.Cotton standards,industry organisations(Textile Exchange,CEEW)and NGOs/non-profits that often act as the conduit between the consumer-facing brands and the cotton-producing farmer communities.3.Representatives from farmer groups and producer organisations providing the perspective of on-farm challenges and on the frontline of climate challenges.4.Supply chain actors such as cotton processors and manufacturers,commodity traders and financial actors including investors and development institutions.The initiative had multiple routes for engagement with stakeholders:1.Working groups the structure of the later stages of the project brought together diverse industry actors into working groups that provided oversight,advice and support to focus areas that included aligning on sustainability metrics,building awareness of the need for and convening around potential pathways in which to employ climate adaptation action,and conceptualising future-fit business models befitting of the industrys needs.These working groups also built capacity and dialogue in systems thinking(which underpins Cotton 2040),and critique approaches and assumptions.2.Participation in roundtables and sessions Forums roundtables on climate adaptation in 2021-2022 saw stakeholders take part in discursive and collaborative meetings that were global and spanned each segment value chain.The roundtables were designed to be participatory in order to gain insight from the industry on the impacts of climate change within the industry,from farming communities to processing facilities and beyond.3.Attending masterclasses and capacity building opportunities Industry facing webinars and interactive sessions that brought together stakeholders to present and discuss challenges and opportunities relating to climate resilience and adaptation across a variety of broader topics.22Cotton 2040Success stories from participating brands and retailersExamples showcase efforts that will continue beyond Cotton 2040 both relating to cotton and to adjacent issues such as regenerative agriculture and labour rights:M&S started its sustainable sourcing journey in 2012.They provided 25,000 in match funding to Cotton 2040 in 2017-18 as part of their ongoing partnership with Forum across a range of sustainability issues.They achieved 100%sourcing from Better Cotton,Fairtrade,or Organic and Recycled certifications in 2019.They are members of Textile Exchange.They recently completed a regenerative agriculture pilot with Forum and their UK potato farmers which they are now expanding more widely across their supply chains.Burberry was an active participant during scoping and early phases of Cotton 2040(from 2015)as well as being a working group member for FA2 and FA3.They are members of Textile Exchange.The company has partnered with Forum since 2013,and Forum CEO,Sally Uren,was a member of Burberrys Responsibility Advisory Committee from 2016-2021.In 2017,Burberry made a commitment to source all its cotton sustainably by 2025.They have since shifted and expanded that commitment to have 100%of cotton certified organic and traceable by the 2029/30 financial year.The company currently sources 31rtified organic cotton and has started a traceability pilot.More details,and reference to their involvement in Cotton 2040,can be found in their 2022/23 annual report.Ramatex worked with Forum to shape its sustainability strategy in 2018 and continues to work on both strands(people and planet)through innovation in other fibres(Circular Leap Asia and Tackling Microfibres at Source),and labour rights(Through their Eyes).Ramatex also funded the scoping phase of Forums Future of Responsible Recruitment in Malaysia initiative,which focuses on migrant workers,and they are now a member of the employers cohort in the programme.23Cotton 2040“When we first started,we had no goals,now we have a target of 100%sustainable cotton by the end of 2023.Cotton 2040 gave us confidence to set targets and work out how to achieve it,including which cottons to consider sustainable.”-Participating brand“It was great to hear the common challenges,and where the industry was moving to,it enabled strategic decisions and really brought home the understanding of where the cotton was coming from”-Participating brand“I always valued the meeting up and the conversations,the exchange of ideas,and that leading to alignment in language and approach-the Cotton 2040 provided that space and opportunity for personal interactions,sharing challenges and opportunities”-Steering group memberPrivate sector actorsIncluding the Ecosystems Services Market Consortium,US Cotton Trust Protocol and luxury apparel brands remain engaged with one another in the ecosystem services market pilot.The ongoing relationship and discussion bodes well for continued learning,refinement and eventual replication and duplication of regenerative and equity-focused work in cotton in the US and abroad.The pilot continues to generate a lot of interest with other apparel companies,actors working in the regenerative agriculture sector(across food and fibre),and the media.24Cotton 2040LEARNING AND RECOMMENDATIONS25Cotton 2040Too often the focus is largely on behaviour change at farm level,with little to no understanding of what is required to enable that change in each context from the rest of the value chain.This means that there are limited levels of engagement and support for action across value chain actors.This is an important point for the industry to consider.We need to find ways to evolve adaptation conversations and resulting actions so they support just and regenerative outcomes,and avoid siloed responses that are likely to create unintended consequences that are not just or regenerative.The Cotton 2040 masterclasses were a first response to this need,but additional support is required to continue progress.You can watch the masterclasses to learn more about practical insights-on supply chain risk,transition risk and decarbonisation,liability risk,governance and people,and insurance-on the cotton and wider apparel sector.1Value chain actors need to enable the shift from standards as an end goal to being the start of a journey to traceability,and move towards the mass-scaling of much more sustainable ways of producing cotton.Landscape initiatives enabling restoration and adaptationOver the course of Cotton 2040,several organisations involved in the initiative,such as Better Cotton and Laudes Foundation,developed a focus on landscape-based approaches.In place of narrowing the focus on improved on-farm practices or certification,for example,“landscape”or“jurisdictional”approaches de-silo sustainability issues to instead focus on a range of critical sustainability issues across a production landscape,combining ecological regeneration with livelihood projects and other developments.In addition,initiatives taking this approach will often aim to look beyond a single supply chain,work with existing interventions in the region and work closely with communities,civil society and local government active in the area.Private sector involvement has been historically very low at the landscape-level,however they merit investigation from progressive businesses looking to achieve sustainability and commercial goals.Potential benefits include improving reputation and building a license to operate,building far greater traceability of raw materials,reduce resource scarcity or community risk disruption,and meet regulatory requirements.I can also assist in achieving commensurate climate adaptation and social justice needs within your value chain.There is a need for companies to think holistically about adaptation and their sustainability goals,aligning that with business benefits and working with their supply chain partners to ensure effective delivery.26Cotton 2040Learnings from Cotton 2040 have informed four key recommendations for wider change efforts in the cotton industry.Raising the level of ambition for standardsIn earlier phases of Cotton 2040 we didnt have the data or research we do now-data that shows the extent of a)the negative social impacts of cotton production;and b)the impacts of climate change.Standards are just the starting point in this journey.Availability,pricing and credibility of standards remains a question and fast fashion or larger multinational brands are most likely to commit to Better Cotton-which operated in Xinjiang until 2020-as it is the cheapest and easiest standard to implement.Metrics are improving and Better Cotton has a key role to play as it is often the only standard in new markets e.g.Nigeria and Uzbekistan.Only attaining the minimum requirements offered by standards such as BCI will not get us to a just and regenerative cotton industry.It would be good to update the Delta Framework based on new data,both to increase dialogue and understanding on how standards differ,and to shift business thinking away from being standards agnostic.This would include building regenerative definitions into their protocols,and to align on a standardised view not only between themselves but also with brands,retailers and civil society.Updating the framework could also support a deeper shift for brands and retailers to see standards as just the starting point for deeper work on traceability.2We need to raise the level of ambition around cotton standards to better enable brands and retailers to lead change.Enabling the shift from standards as an end goal to being the start of a journey to traceabilityVerification of removal of forced labour/human rights abuses and use of agronomic practices is reliant on traceability.Whilst the importance of supply chain transparency is increasingly recognised,little progress is happening.In part this is due to the complexities of supply chains,verification issues and costs.Many brands and retailers also have small sustainable teams(e.g.1-2 people),driving a focus on regulation and standards rather than addressing more complex traceability needs.Traceability and supply chain resilience is also likely to be a five to ten year journey.At a time when brands are facing more pressing short term challenges there is a need to:build the business case for traceability;offer businesses pragmatic advice on how to make that happen across the sector;join the dots to support transparency objectives.Brands and retailers are still siloed.They need to have the capacity to talk across their value chain(not just to one tier);provide better,affordable technology to support traceability;enable civil society to convene and support cross-sector collaboration;incentivise prioritisation of traceability(e.g.government and regulation such as the upcoming changes to EU directives);identify interventions that enable brands to address more than one issue e.g.ecosystem services approaches if they are done well.27Cotton 2040While SMEs are ambitious and agile,they do not have the same economies of scale and cost can be a barrier to change.There needs to be consumer buy-in to pay for the better practices and contributions that they make to uphold sustainability.This is not about expecting consumers to pay more in a cost of living crisis.Buying more and“bad”apparel is part of the problem that has got us to where we are in the first place degenerating landscapes,fragile supply chains,sustaining power inequities and social deprivation for workers.There is a need to shift to a narrative around buying local,and buying less but better good quality and longer-lasting with minimised eco footprints.One route to changing consumer values and thinking is through new marketing that supports this new narrative and mindset to emerge.3We need to call for a shift in consumer mindsets and narratives,which in turn will enable SMEs to also lead and adopt in the face of much-needed change.Farmers need new forms of finance to enable new types of investment because time horizons,risks and expected outputs and outcomes for regenerative agriculture are different when compared with conventional agriculture.This report outlines key insights and recommendations for further action for ecosystem services markets providers,purchasers and the organisations that support them.Brands also either need a way to buy accredited regenerative cotton through the mass balance approach,or we need to develop or develop a marketplace/supply chain that supports regenerative cotton i.e.that can enable buying of regenerative cotton outside of the mass balance approach.4We need to call for transition finance and de-risking options which enable producers to start and scale regenerative agriculture.28Cotton 2040WHAT NEXT?29Cotton 204030Cotton 2040For further details on Forum,including more information on our Value Chains work,please reach out to Hannah CunneenThe legacy of Cotton 2040 serves as a testament to the power of collaborative action and strategic insight in reshaping industries for the better.While Cotton 2040 has ended,the urgency to create a resilient,regenerative,and equitable cotton sector has never been more evident.The initiatives findings,tools,and resources are poised to accelerate industry-wide transformation.By embracing the recommendations and adopting a holistic approach,the cotton industry can transition toward a more sustainable future,safeguarding the livelihoods of millions while mitigating and reversing environmental impacts.Forum will take many key elements of Cotton 2040s learning forward into its Reconfiguring Value Chains work across its three strategic areas of focus:the Purpose of Business,Food and Energy.Current trends outline the critical need for reimagining and restructuring how we do business and relate to suppliers and consumers across value chains-including food,fibre,critical minerals,pharmaceuticals,transport,technology industries,and beyond.Forum has developed a series of visionary and practical pathways for businesses to adopt a just and regenerative mindset,whatever its starting point.RESOURCES AND TOOLS31Cotton 204032Cotton 2040Reports,tools and guidesA snapshot of our thought leadership VideosA snapshot of extensive coverage secured across mainstream sustainability and trade pressReport:The first-ever Global Analysis of Climate Risks to cotton growing regions:A high-level analysis of physical climate risks across global cotton-growing regions for the 2040s.Blog:From system shock to systems change:Why we need to transform commodity value chains(and what this means for cotton)Video:Cotton 2040-Collaborative action for a sustainable industryEcotextile News:Cotton 2040 aims to take mission to next levelTool:Planning for Climate Adaptation:Resources and interactive risk explorer tool to understand the physical climate risk to cotton growing regionsPodcast:With a narrow window for innovation,will our food systems transform or unravel?Webinar:Introduction to Cotton 2040Sustainable Brands:How a practical guide to sourcing sustainable cotton could help transform the industry Guide:CottonUP Guide to sourcing sustainable cottonBlog:Reflections on World Cotton Day:Lessons learned from building uptake of sustainable cottonWebinar:CottonUP:how a new guide can help fast-track your sustainable cotton sourcingSouth China Morning Post:Threat of heatflation looms large as climate change shrinks farm and seafood output,experts sayReport:Creating sustainable value chains:A case for action for piloting and scaling alternative business modelsBlog:Climate adaptation and mitigation needs in the cotton sector:Five trends shaping the future of cottonMasterclasses:“Insights to Action”masterclasses on climate risk co-hosted with WTWNew York Times:How climate change is making tampons(and lots of other stuff)more expensivePaper:Innovative business models that can transform cotton supply chains:An outline of what a more resilient,regenerative,and just cotton supply chain can look likeBlog:The cotton industry is changing.But will it be viable in 2040?Working group meeting:Cotton 2040s final working group meetingMongabay:Blue jeans:An iconic fashion item thats costing the planet dearlyAbout Forum for the FutureForum for the Future is a leading international sustainability non-profit.For more than 25 years weve been working in partnership with business,governments and civil society to accelerate the shift towards a just and regenerative future in which both people and the planet thrive.As our environmental,social and economic crises intensify,the world is rapidly changing,with multiple transitions already reshaping how we all live and work.But will we go far enough,and fast enough?Forum is focused on enabling deep transformation in three game-changing areas:how we think about,produce,consume and value both food and energy,and the purpose of business in society and the economy.Were working with ambitious and diverse change-makers to shift how they feel,think,act and collaborate to drive systemic change for sustainability.About Cotton 2040Cotton 2040 was a multi-stakeholder initiative with a mission to facilitate the shift to a sustainable global cotton industry which is resilient in a changing climate;which uses business models that support sustainable production and livelihoods;and where sustainably produced cotton is the norm.It ran from 2015 to 2023.The initiative was convened by Forum for the Future,with expert partners WTW,Anthesis and the World Resources Institute(WRI).Cotton 2040 aimed to accelerate progress and maximise the impact of existing sustainability initiatives across the global cotton industry,by bringing together leading international brands and retailers,sustainable cotton standards,existing industry initiatives and other stakeholders across the value chain.Learn more here.33Cotton 2040CreditsThis report was written by Hannah Cunneen,Neil Walker,Hannah Pathak,Martin Koehring,and designed by Tanya Grueneberger at Forum for the Future.For more information on Forums value chains work,please contact Hannah Cunneen h.cunneenforumforthefuture.org Forum for the Future,November 2023forumforthefutureForum for the FutureForum for the FutureforumforthefutureForum4theFuture34Cotton 2040
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