全球化研究报告-PDF版

全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）：2021年商业地产市场趋势与展望（英文版）（16页）.pdf

根据NAR商业成员对2021年第一季度商业地产季度市场调查和行业数据的回应，商业地产市场正在复苏，但与COVID-19大流行前的情况相比仍然疲软。2021年第一季度，大型商业房地产(至少250万美元的.

2021-05-19 16页 5星级

全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）：2021年全球联盟国际住宅房地产业务调查（英文版）（41页）.pdf

全国房地产经纪人协会与全球75个不同国家的100多个有组织的房地产协会保持正式关系。这个全球联盟网络给房地产经纪人与遵守NAR严格道德规范的专业人士合作的信心，是NAR 140万会员发展国际业务的强大.

2021-05-07 41页 5星级

全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）：首付预期和购房障碍（英文版）（28页）.pdf

2019年7月，NAR向159750名近期购房者寄出了一份125个问题的调查报告，该报告使用了一个随机样本加权，以代表地理位置上的销售情况。近期购房者必须在2018年7月至2019年6月期间购买一套一.

2021-05-05 28页 5星级

全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）：商业地产c商业趋势（英文版）（19页）.pdf

COVID-19大流行导致了自大萧条以来最严重的经济崩溃，全球经济萎缩了4.4%。全国房地产经纪人协会只有7%的会员主要专注于商业房地产，报告称，与过去几年的12%相比，他们在2020年与国际客户进行.

2021-05-05 19页 5星级

全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）：商业地产地铁市场报告（英文版）（54页）.pdf

亚特兰大桑迪斯普林斯罗斯韦尔，佐治亚州商业房地产市场是温和的相比，整体市场。NAR商业市场状况指数：公寓业的租金增长速度快于全国。写字楼入住率下降，写字楼租金增幅低于全国。在工业部门，工业空置率高于全.

2021-05-05 54页 5星级

Altos Research：利用房地产市场数据建立业务指南（英文版）（42页）.pdf

我总是喜欢说，对于房地产消费者来说，只有三个大问题：“卖什么?”，“我的房子值多少钱?”和“市场怎么样?”每个房地产经纪人都有各种工具来谈论什么是要卖的，客户的房子可能值多少钱。这里所有代理都可以访问MLS，并且每个客户列表演示都包含一个CMA。当然，购房者都有自己喜欢的搜房应用程序!但是，很少有解决方案能帮助房地产经纪人了解市场上的实际情况无论是购买的好时机、机会在哪里，还是如何在紧张的市场中战胜竞争对手。在Altos Research，我们开发了一个系统，用于收集有关市场当前情况的本地数据。我们每周跟踪超过1亿处房产，并使用先进的软件解释数千个市场变量并将其转化为见解。我们每周都会在设计精美、互动、移动优化的市场报告中提供这些实时市场洞察。成千上万的房地产经纪人、团队和经纪公司使用我们的实时市场报告来吸引和吸引潜在的买家和卖家，使自己成为市场专家，并通过销售漏斗自动转移客户。他们还依靠我们的数据来了解不断变化、常常令人惊讶的房地产市场的真实情况。解读和讨论市场数据可能会令人生畏。我们创建这本电子书是为了解开数据的神秘面纱，给你你需要知道的一切，以便自信地谈论统计数据，预测未来，并为你的买家和卖家提供专家咨询。

2021-05-04 42页 5星级

全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）：从性别、种族和性取向看房地产行业的职业选择（英文版）（224页）.pdf

2017年，全国房地产经纪人协会 首次从性别和种族的角度看待会员业务。该报告深入分析了会员进入该领域的原因、对房地产领域重要的技能、会员工作领域、典型交易数量、销售额和收入差异等方面的差异。2021年.

2021-04-30 224页 5星级

Cushman：2021年全球建筑及房地产（CRE）投资指南（英文版）（31页）.pdf

全球房地产市场将在下半年反弹，投资者将领跑：1.共识是，到2021年中期，大多数发达国家和一些新兴市场将有一种广泛分布的疫苗。2.2021年的经济前景已被上调，许多人呼吁H2活动激增。亚太地区仍然是全球的领跑者。3.资本市场的复苏速度快于租赁市场，随着巨大的资本和被压抑的资产需求，进一步加速的条件已经成熟。同时，与COVID-19之前相比，我们将继续看到更加多样化的交易结构。4.工棚、床位、药品和利基资产仍然具有吸引力，但只有这么多的产品可用。5.一个同步增长的情景正在形成，将推动多个行业、市场和产品类型进入2022年。6.虽然周期和流行病往往主导着人们的思维，但企业和社会行为的结构性转变必须在战略中加以考虑而且越来越多地将由ESG主导。全球概要：与2020年一样，全球经济、租赁市场和资本市场将顺应大流行形势的发展，从而在投资市场的不同驱动因素之间实现高度同步。与之前的全球经济衰退不同，我们预计投资活动将主导租赁市场，主要原因是全球金融状况强劲。亚太地区的情况一直比较乐观，不过随着疫苗的推广，预计到2021年底，所有地区都将有强劲的势头。

2021-03-24 31页 5星级

莱坊国际（Knight Frank）：2021年亚太地区房地产展望（英文版）（24页）.pdf

我们带着谨慎的乐观情绪进入2020年，因为亚太地区房地产市场仍相对健康，而且中美两国签署了第一阶段交易协议。然后，新型冠状病毒肺炎来袭，市场陷入动荡，我们之前的许多预测都出现了偏差。正如这份报告强调的.

2021-02-05 24页 5星级

2021 英国房地产展望报告 - 年利达（英文版）.pdf

Horizon Scanning UK Real Estate 2021 Introduction In this, our annual Horizon Scanning publication,.

2020-12-08 11页 5星级

2020年房地产科技报告：房地产的未来 - Saïd Business School（112页英文版）.pdf

University of Oxford Research PropTech 2020: the future of real estate WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FOREPROPTECH 2020: THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 1 PROPTECH 2020: THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE This report is the successor to our 2017 report PropTech 3.0: the Future of Real Estate. It has been compiled using data from Unissu and Crunchbase, while additional data has been compiled from interviews and other external sources mentioned in the acknowledgements and references. We thank all who have contributed to this report; any stated opinions, and any remaining errors, are our own. The Oxford Future of Real Estate Initiative at the Sad Business School is led by Professor Andrew Baum and is a collaboration between Oxford academics and industry-leading organisations that aims to advance knowledge in real estate: Arcadis, BCLP, CBRE, EY, Grosvenor, Nuveen, Redevco, The Crown Estate and UBS. Our research is grounded in real- world business questions. To find out more about the Initiative, or to read our other research, please visit our website at: https:/www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/research/oxford-future-real-estate- initiative. Any reference to specific companies or organisations does not constitute a recommendation and is included solely for illustrative or case study purposes. We welcome reader feedback and comments, which can be sent to us via e-mail at realestate.reportssbs.ox.ac.uk Acknowledgements We would like to express sincere thanks to all interviewees, collaborators and contributors. These include all those acknowledged in the predecessor report, PropTech 3.0 The Future of Real Estate, plus, in particular: Unissu Crunchbase We would also like to thank the founding donors to the Oxford Real Estate Initiative (Forbes Elworthy of Craigmore and The Centre for Studies in Property Valuation and Management Trust) plus Arcadis, BCLP, CBRE, EY, Grosvenor, Nuveen, Redevco, The Crown Estate and UBS for their financial support. Notes Material from interviews is quoted verbatim in the text. Verbatim quotes and materials taken from websites are set in italics. Where interview materials are unattributed, this is at the request of the interviewee. The views are of the interviewees and should not be assumed to be the views of the companies they work for. Andrew Baum acknowledges his personal interest in tech businesses referred to in this report (Proda, Unissu and Reneza). His view of these businesses may not be objective. Andrew Baum, Andrew Saull and Fabian Braesemann Sad Business School February 2020 FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 2 Overview Chapter 1 Introduction In this chapter we explain our definition of PropTech, the industry verticals which explain different PropTech activity and the history of PropTech growth Chapter 2 The market In this chapter we measure the size of the PropTech market, trace the sources and scale of the investment which has powered this sector and describe geographical variations in ProptTech activity Chapter 3 Technologies In this chapter we describe the broad or exogenous technologies which have made the PropTech revolution possible Chapter 4 Innovations: smart real estate In this chapter we describe PropTech innovations in the Smart Real Estate sector, which facilitates the operation of real estate assets Chapter 5 Innovations: real estate fintech In this chapter we describe Real Estate FinTech, meaning the enterprise sector which supports (sale or leasing) transactions of real estate assets Chapter 6 Innovations: The sharing economy In this chapter we describe the sharing economy, which is a term used to describe the common use of assets supported by apps, websites and technology platforms Chapter 7 Futures In this chapter, we examine the difficulties currently facing many PropTech start-ups and investors, consider how innovation is accommodated and speculate about what PropTech 2020 will mean for the future of real estate. Chapter 8 Summary and conclusions In this chapter we summarise our findings and identify five key areas of future activity: smart real estate, real estate FinTech, the real estate shared economy, data digitalisation and smart cities FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 3 Contents 1. Introduction 1.1 The fourth industrial revolution 1.2 What is PropTech? 1.3 PropTech waves 2. The market 2.1 Sizing the market 2.2 Investment activity 2.3 Geographic dispersion 3. Technologies 3.1 Websites and smartphone apps 3.2 APIs 3.3 Data analysis and visualisation 3.4 The Internet of Things (IoT) 3.5 Artificial intelligence and Machine Learning 3.6 Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) 3.7 Sensors 3.8 Virtual and augmented reality 3.9 Geospatial and 5G technologies 3.10 Cloud computing 3.11 Transportation tech: drones, autonomous vehicles and hyperloop 3.12 Other technologies 3.13 Applications 4. Innovations: smart real estate 4.1 Introduction: ConTech and smart real estate 4.2 Smart Buildings 4.3 Building Information Modelling (BIM) and digital twins 4.4 Modular construction 4.5 3D printing and robotics 4.6 Smart materials 4.7 Green buildings 4.8 Increasing occupant wellbeing 4.9 Increasing space utilisation 4.10 Smart retail 4.11 Smart logistics 4.12 Smart residential 4.13 Emerging sectors 4.14 Smart city applications 5. Innovations: real estate FinTech 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Online residential brokers FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 4 5.3 Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) and iBuyers 5.4 Instant mortgages 5.5 Commercial real estate data 5.6 Legal processes and PropTech 5.7 Real estate transactions 5.8 Crowdfunding and peer-to-peer lending 5.9 Real estate tokenisation 6. Innovations: the shared economy 6.1 Introduction 6.2 The office sector 6.3 Residential real estate 6.4 Other sectors 6.5 The shared economy 3.0 7. Futures 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Technology adoption-diffusion theories 7.3 Barriers to PropTech adoption 7.4 Predicting PropTech adoption 7.5 The entrance of tech giants 7.6 Resisting monopoly 7.7 Tomorrows technology 7.8 Employment 7.9 Global mega forces and sustainability 8. Summary and conclusions References FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 5 1. Introduction In this chapter we explain our definition of PropTech, the industry verticals which explain different PropTech activity and the history of PropTech growth 1.1 The fourth industrial revolution The internet and mobile telephony have enabled a boom in technology platforms applied to nearly all areas of our lives jobs, homes, education, health, leisure, finance and even romance. The global shift towards the use of digital technology or the fourth industrial revolution (Schwab, 2017) has facilitated innovation in three different activities. These are as follows. Information provision Wikipedia, the BBC website and on-line newspapers are examples of on-line information engines. Initially, the internet, mobile telephony, social networking and e-mail were all about information, hence the previously ubiquitous use of the term infotech. Transactions Information is the key input into the due diligence phase of a transaction. Shopping on-line was therefore the natural next phase of technology development. PayPal, Amazon and on- line banking are examples of internet and mobile telephony being used as a medium for the exchange of money, goods and services. Management and control PCs, tablets and smartphones are potential dashboards for controlling electronic functions. The Internet of Things (IoT) allows objects to be measured (information provision) but also sensed and/or controlled remotely across the existing network infrastructure, creating opportunities to adjust or turn systems on or off remotely. As an example, Googles 2014 acquisition of Nest to create a Google IoT division was seen at the time as a significant moment. Also, the remote control of driverless cars and delivery vehicles, plus bots offering a range of services, are setting in motion many thought processes imagineering the likely future of logistics and retail real estate. 1.2 What is PropTech? Real estate as an asset and as an industry is not immune to the innovations made possible by the fourth industrial revolution. What has become widely known as PropTech describes the digital transformation that is currently taking place within the real estate industry. “PropTech is one small part of the wider digital transformation of the property industry. It describes a movement driving a mentality change within the real estate industry and its consumers regarding technology-driven innovation in data assembly, transactions, and the design of buildings and cities” (Andrew Baum and James Dearsley, reported in Davenport, 2019). In our 2017 report, we suggested that the roots of PropTech lay in three independent movements or impacts. These were Fintech; Smart Building technologies; and the Shared Economy (see Figure 1). FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 6 Figure 1: PropTech roots, 2017 Source: Baum (2017) Smart Buildings describes technology-based platforms which facilitate the operation and management of real estate assets. The assets can be single property units or entire cities. The platforms may simply provide information about building or urban centre performance, or they may directly facilitate or control building services. This sector supports real estate asset, property and facilities management. We exclude technology which supports the design and/or construction of buildings or infrastructure from our definition of PropTech (this is usually known as ConTech) and discuss this vertical in Chapter 4. Real Estate FinTech describes technology-based platforms which facilitate the trading of real estate asset ownership. The assets can be buildings, shares or funds, debt or equity. The platforms may simply provide information for prospective buyers and sellers, or they may more directly facilitate or effect transactions of asset ownership or leases with a (negative or positive) capital value. This sector supports the real estate capital markets. We discuss this vertical in Chapter 5. The Shared Economy describes technology-based platforms which facilitate the use of real estate assets. The assets can be land or buildings, including offices, shops, storage, housing and other property types. The platforms may simply provide information for prospective users and sellers of space, or they may more directly facilitate or effect rent- or fee-based transactions. This sector supports the real estate occupier markets. We discuss this vertical in Chapter 6. We can add further influences to this schematic. ConTech, whose origins lie in computer- aided design or CAD, is a strong driver of smart building tech. LegalTech (characterised by smart contracts) is a facilitator of many real estate FinTech applications. Figure 2 is our updated schematic. In addition to our three initial drivers, we now include ConTech and LegalTech. FinTech Shared economy Smart buildings PropTech Real estate FinTech FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 7 Figure 2: PropTech roots, 2020 Source: FoRE There is also a world of transport technology which will change the way cities work. Smart Cities are somewhat beyond the scope of this report, but will be referred to in several places. Finally, there are many unpretentious digital transformations underway focussed on the storage, analysis and visualisation of data. These data digitalisation activities will have a significant impact on the real estate industry, and the effect will be seen in all areas of PropTech application, including the use of buildings, the operation and management of buildings, and the capital markets. 1.3 PropTech waves Real estate is not known as an industry which readily embraces change. The nature of the asset class, which comprises large heterogeneous assets traded in a largely private market, is perhaps a good reason for this. Homes may be too important a part of a private portfolio to take any risks with the process whereby it is traded, held or valued. It may also be the case that there is an agency problem: the professional advisors that dominate the transaction process clearly have an interest in protecting their income sources, so chartered surveyors, brokers and lawyers might all be expected to resist tech-driven innovations designed to disrupt their work. Nevertheless, the real estate industry has undergone two periods of major technological change. In current times we are witnessing a battle for market share between traditional advisors and a discernible second wave of technology-based innovation. The first wave (PropTech 1.0) took place in the mid-1980s. This was all to do with data and computing power. The invention of computing in the 1930s and 1940s and the subsequent 40 years of development made little or no impact on property markets. The key driver of change was the introduction of the personal computer in the late 1970s/early1980s. The Apple II and the twin floppy disc IBM PC XT (introduced in 1983) both supported spreadsheet applications (VisiCalc and Supercalc) before Lotus 1-2-3 and, later, Excel became industry FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 8 standard platforms for the organisation and analysis of data. Alongside the development of the personal computer (PC), the mainframe computer was becoming more and more efficient and affordable. In the mid-1980s this started to have an impact on property practice. These waves are likely to correspond to movements in the global financial markets. Frick (2019) describes how a recession encourages the adoption of new technologies. Employers are able to recruit workers with better computer-related skills due to increased unemployment; technology brings transparency into how and where businesses are affected by turmoil; and the opportunity cost of investing in new technologies reduces as the returns from funding regular operations are reduced. The same is suggested by Block and Aarons (2019: 51) who note that the 2008 downturn in global markets led to a boost in PropTech due to the need for real estate companies to find a competitive advantage and maximise savings. The growth of indirect private fund vehicles with different styles, debt and asset-backed securitisation, the arrival of REITs, the growth of a d

2020-09-22 112页 5星级

哈佛大学：中国房地产业或已触顶（45页）（英文版）.pdf

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES PEAK CHINA HOUSING Kenneth S. Rogoff Yuanchen Yang Working Paper 27697 htt.

2020-08-26 45页 5星级

：亚太地区-房地产行业-亚洲地产业：在家办公是一个新的挑战（英文版）（65页）.pdf

MM Mapping the New Normal Asia Property: Working from Home, a New Challenge for Asias Office Landlords WFH is a cost saving opportunity for businesses. We expect tenants across Asia to surrender 3-9% of existing office space permanently, resulting in a rent decline of 10-15% over the next three years. Prefer office stocks in Hong Kong and India over Australia and Japan. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. = Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. July 27, 2020 08:00 PM GMT MM MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED Praveen K Choudhary Equity Analyst 852 2848-5068 Praveen.C Contributors MORGAN STANLEY ASIA (SINGAPORE) PTE. Wilson W Ng, CFA Equity Analyst 65 6834-6345 Wilson.W.N MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED Hildy Ling Equity Analyst 852 2239-7834 Hildy.L MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED Dan Xu Equity Analyst 852 2239-1227 Dan.Xd.X MORGAN STANLEY ASIA (SINGAPORE) PTE. Derek Chang Equity Analyst 65 6834-6512 Derek.C MORGAN STANLEY MUFG SECURITIES CO., LTD. Atsuro Takemura Equity Analyst 81 3 6836-5429 Atsuro.T MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED Simon Chan Equity Analyst 61 2 9770-1316 Simon.C MORGAN STANLEY INDIA COMPANY PRIVATE LIMITED Sameer Baisiwala, CFA Equity Analyst 91 22 6118-2214 Sameer.B MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED Elly Chen Equity Analyst 852 3963-0122 Elly.C MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED Lauren A Berry Equity Analyst 61 2 9770-1359 Lauren.B MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED Chloe Liu Equity Analyst 852 2848-5497 Chloe.L MORGAN STANLEY INDIA COMPANY PRIVATE LIMITED Pooja Bhatia Research Associate 91 22 6118-2217 Pooja.B MM Mapping the New Normal Asia Property: Working from Home, a New Challenge for Asias Office Landlords WFH impact on demand and rental 3-9% lower demand and 10-15% lower rental: We expect big tenants (financial institutions, IT) with well established BCP/WFH infrastructure to return 10% of their existing office space to landlords over the next three years. This will be achieved by asking certain functions to work from home per- manently (HR, some parts of IT, back office), offshoring to cheaper locations (India, Vietnam, and desk sharing. However, we believe the intangible benefits of social connection, collaboration, and social dis- tancing will keep the number from rising further. WFH is rapidly changing the trend and will benefit re-centraliza- tion and more flexible workspaces, in our view. Regional comparison: We prefer HK and India over Japan and Australia, driven by four factors. (1) Tenants are expected to return space in financial centers in developed economies, but we see limited impact in China and India. (2) Tokyo is the only city where rental increased in 1H20; thus, we expect more rental downside from here. (3) Hong Kong showed the worst decline (-13%) in rental in 1H20, implying that a lot of bad news is in the price. (4) Sydney and Tokyo have the highest supply addition over the next three years, putting cyclical pressure on rents. (5) HK and Indian stocks are trading at 55% discounts to NAV and more importantly, 30% deeper than the long- term average. Stock picks: We see more downside to Suntec REIT, GPT and Mitsui Fudosan. On the other hand, SHKP, HK Land and DLF are pricing in worst-case scenarios with regard to WFH. W FH is a cost saving opportunity for businesses. We expect tenants across Asia to surrender 3-9% of existing office space permanently, resulting in a rent decline of 10-15% over the next three years. Prefer office stocks in Hong Kong and India over Australia and Japan. Analysing the long-term impact of WFH: Office rentals across Asia declined 2-13% in 1H20 owing to weaker demand (negative GDP, higher unemployment), and we expect this to continue in 2H20. The bigger concern for landlords, however, is that a portion of existing employees continue to work from home (WFH). This report, a collab- orative work across the Asian region, is an attempt to quantify the rental impact on six key financial capitals over the next three years. We also identify the winners and losers based on what is already in the price. Office spaces are important for tenants and landlords (and thus stocks): The top 6 cities in Asia account for US$0.8 trillion worth of Grade A office space as of December 2019, by our estimate. For ten- ants, we estimate that office rental could be as high as 15-20% of fixed operating costs. AlphaWise survey of office workers in HK, Australia, the UK, and the US four key revelations: (1) The majority of employees would like the flexibility to work from home. (2) Most dont want to work from home every day (except in Australia). In HK, the majority would like WFH 40% of Australians would like to work from home every day. (3) Most HK-based respon- dents dont want to share desks. (4) Respondents cited the biggest challenge with WFH as infrastructure issues (57%), not space con- straints (25%). M 4 M Contents 5Key Charts 6Investment Conclusion 10Asia Office Stocks Comps Table 11Mapping the New Normal 13Flexibility Is Still Valued 15Hong Kong Office Pricing in Too Much Downside? 23Singapore: Concerns Appear Overdone 29Japan Office: Market Conditions Could Worsen Further, Not in the Price 38Australia: Office Rents Could Decline By 10-20% 46 India - Resilience in Office Demand 51China: Shanghai Office Less Impacted by WFH 54Appendix M MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH5 M Key Charts Exhibit 1: Major cities office market value 345 160 129 99 49 37 Hong Kong Singapore Tokyo Shanghai Sydney Mumbai Premium/Grade A office market value (US$bn) Source: Total market value is estimated using office stock from respective government sources, JLL/ CBRE estimates multiplied by ASP estimated by respective regional property analysts from Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 3: Next three years office supply 15% 8% 8% 6% 5% India- Seven Metros SydneyTokyoSingaporeHong Kong Next 3 year office addition as % of current stock Source: JLL, CBRE, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 5: Office demand net impact of WFH 0%0%0% 3% 5% 9% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% IndiaChinaSingaporeHong KongTokyoAustralia WFH net impact on office by 2022E Source: WFH impact is estimated by regional Morgan Stanley Research property team based on results from AlphaWise survey Exhibit 2: Changes in vacancy and spot rent in 1H20 6.0% 10.5% 5.0% 1.6% 13% 7.6% 11.0% 7.5% 2.0% 12% -13% -3% -2% 3% -2% Hong KongSingaporeSydneyTokyoIndia- Seven Metros Dec-19 VacancyJun-20 Vacancy1H20 spot rent chg % Source: JLL, CBRE, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 4: Real GDP growth between 2019 and 2022E 13% 3.8% 2.0% 0.1% -1.7% IndiaSingaporeAustraliaHong KongJapan 2022E over 2019 real GDP chg% Source: Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates Exhibit 6: Grade A office rent forecast bull and bear cases (Jun-20 to Dec-22) -30% -20% -30% -20% -5% 15% 5% 20% 10% 13% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% SingaporeTokyoHong KongSydneyIndia- Seven Metros Grade-A office rent forcast by 2022E -7% -10% -5% -9% 5% Bull Bear Base Source: Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates M 6 M (3) AlphaWise survey in Hong Kong, Australia, the UK, and the US We conducted a flash survey in HK (sample size 698), Australia (sample size 937), the UK (sample size 4,500,) and the US (sample size 2,000) from April to July. Our conclusions: 1. The Majority of employees (75-90%) would like the flexibility to work from home in future even when COVID-19 is past. 2. However, most of them would not like to work from home every day (except in Australia). In HK, the majority would like to work less than three days (mostly one day) per week from home. More than 46% of Australians would like to work from home every day. 3. Most HK respondents (more than 50%) do not want to share desks. 4. The biggest complaint against WFH is infrastructure issues (57%) and not space constraints (25%). 5. During the early stages of COVID-19, 70-80% of employees were working from home, but in the US, only 54% were working from home. This may be because the survey was across the US and not just in New York City. Investment Conclusion (1) Why write this report now? In the early waves of the COVID-19 crisis across Asia, roughly 80% of employees were working from home without apparent productivity loss, based on our AlphaWise survey. More importantly, a majority of employees have stated they would like to continue working from home even after COVID-19 normalizes. This report is a collaborative work by research analysts across the region to answer this key ques- tion: l What permanent impact will WFH have on vacancy and rental for key cities in Asia and how much is in the price of various stocks (we identified 15 stocks in five countries)? (2) Importance of office for the real estate industry In Asia, the top six Grade-A offices in the major cities (Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, Sydney, Shanghai, Mumbai) are worth US$0.8 trillion as of December 2019, by our estimate: This is calculated by multiplying the gross floor area by rental and dividing by the cap rate for each region. We highlight 15 stocks in Asia whose share prices move with the office outlook, owing to their GAV exposure to office of more than 50%: For tenants, office rental accounts for roughly 15-20% of their fixed operating costs and thus is worth their attention. Exhibit 7: Total percentage of respondents WFH during COVID 81% 73% 69% 54% LondonHKEuropeUS Total of WFH during covid Source: AlphaWise Note: Surveys were conducted as follows: Europe/UK: 15-21 June; HK: 20-23 July; US: 4 April to 14 July. Exhibit 8: Intention to WFH in the future 92% 83% 77% 76% 73% SingaporeHKLondonAustraliaEurope % of workers want to WFH in the future Source: AlphaWise, Singapore data from Engagerock.co M MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH7 M Exhibit 9: Intention to WFH every day 46% 23% 22% 18% 17% AustraliaHKLondonSingaporeEurope Of those office worker would like to WFH, % would like to WFH everyday Source: Australia/HK/London/Europe data from AlphaWise, Singapore data from Engagerock.co Note: Australia data is prefer WFH 4days/week. Singapore data -% saying based on my current experi- ence working from home, I can see myself 100% WFH effectively after COVID 19. Exhibit 10: Preference to WFH once/week 10% 5% 4% 3% HKAustraliaEuropeLondon Of those office worker would like to WFH, % would like to WFH 40%, which is overly bearish, in our view. (3) Gearing ratio should be stable as the company switches to land-replenishment mode. DLF (DLF.NS)OWINR211 ( 52%)1.32 1.4% DLF is our top pick in the industry given its diversified business model, which includes both office and residential business, new asset creation cycle, steadily improving balance sheet, and inexpensive valuation. The companys plans to focus on middle-income housing and sell as you build should help improve near-term cash flows. Source: Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 15: Key Underweight stocks PTP/BV (x) Div YieldWhy UW? StockRating(Upside)FY0FY1 Suntec REIT (SUNT.SI)UWS$1.4 ( 0.7%)0.66 5.1% While SUNs dividend yield is higher than its office-REIT peers in Singapore, we think it offers the least attractive dividend growth outlook. We see headwinds to dividends from the negative impacts from the pandemic on its retail mall and convention centre busi- nesses, and as the stock weans itself off capital distributions that have been supple- menting dividends. GPT (GPT.AX)UWA$4.2 ( 1.9%)0.72 4.9% (1) Its active office development business (A$1bn) is likely to be dormant, as vacancies rise across Sydney and Melbourne. (2) Close to 30% of its office portfolio has maturity in 2020/21 (vs. peers with lower expo- sure; c.25% for DXS and c.15% for MGR). (3) Around 40% of GPTs exposure is in Retail, with a large presence in Melbourne, which is going through a second lockdown. Mitsui Fudosan (8801.T) UW1,700 (-7%)0.67 2.4% Among real estate developers in Japan, the company has an economically sensitive busi- ness portfolio relative to peers and its discount to NAV looks less appealing at around 40% vs. 60% for other developers. Also, the stocks dividend yield is lower than peers in the region. Source: Morgan Stanley Research (6) What is priced in and stock picks We prefer HK Land, SHKP, and DLF among regional real estate companies with high office exposure. The least preferred stocks are Suntec REIT, GPT and Mitsui Fudosan. What is priced into property stocks? Among the 15 big-cap stocks we have identified, Swire Properties, HK Land, Mirvac, Mitsui Fudosan and DLF have declined the most, while SHKP, CACT and Embassy REIT have been more resilient in 1H20. We compare the cur- rent P/BV or discount to NAV to the long-term average for each and find that HK Land and Swire Properties have factored in as much as a 40% decline in rental from the current level, which is unlikely, in our view. On the other hand, current rental in Japan is at an all time high ( 3% YoY), and stocks have declined 24% in 1H20 and are currently trading at a 20% discount to the long-term average. Thus, we see more downside from here. M 10 M Asia Office Stocks: Comps Table Exhibit 16: Regional office comps table US$mnLoCLoC%P/BV (x)P/E (x)Div Yield Net Gearing 24-Jul-20TickerYr. EndFXRatingMkt CapClosing PxPTUpsideFY0FY1FY1FY0 Sun Hung Kai Properties0016.HKJunHKD OW 34,56492.5131 42%0.67135.4% Swire Properties1972.HKDecHKD OW 13,22317.523 31%0.47195.0%5% HK LandHKLD.SIDecUSD OW 9,0563.95.3 37%0.32125.7%9% Keppel REITKASA.SIDecSGD OW 2,6911.11.25 14%0.92225.2D% CACTCACT.SIDecSGD EW 4,7941.71.80 5%0.97234.56% Suntec REITSUNT.SIDecSGD UW 2,8321.41.40 1%0.66195.1X% DexusDXS.AXJunAUD OW 6,9549.011.0 22%0.96175.64% MirvacMGR.AXJunAUD EW 5,8362.12.6 24%1.03165.34% GPTGPT.AXDecAUD UW 5,6964.14.2 2%0.72164.93% Mitsubishi Estate8802.TMarJPY EW 20,7541,5931,700 7%1.26211.6P% Sumitomo R 2. Identifying functions that can be permanently done from home (like editing, HR, back office); and 3. Desk sharing, where everyone works from home one day a week, which itself can save 20% of office space. As an example, JLL, a real estate consultancy firm in Hong Kong , man- aged with desk space for only 80% of its employees for the last few years because, prior to COVID-19, at any given time 20% of its employees were out of the of

2020-08-11 65页 5星级

Houzz：2016年爱尔兰庭院设计趋势研究报告（英文版）（23页）.pdf

低维护性是一个关键的功能考虑，其次是面向家庭的便利和娱乐能力。户外功能的最重要方面*百分比反映已经完成、正在进行或计划进行户外项目的业主比例。回答仅限于前三个方面其他结构客房/奶奶附件树屋避暑小屋车库.

2016-02-09 23页 5星级