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REvived REshaped REinforcedIndia Retail Real EstateTable of ContentsForeword 01 Indian Retail Real Estate 02 An Overview 02 Key Trends 08Malls Overview 14 Tier-I Cities 14 Tier-II Cities 20Way Forward 40AhmedabadJaipurBhubaneswarKochiChandigarhLucknowCoimbatoreThiruvananthapuramIndoreVisakhapatnamAnuj KejriwalCEO&MD,ANAROCK RetailMajor disruptions are often the reason to catalyse business transformations.The Indian retail sector has successfully steered clear of the rough waters post its sub-par performance in recent past due to the unprecedented crisis.The resurgence observed in 2022 stands as testimony to the sectors spirit and vitality.This was mainly driven by the rising consumption and the propensity to spend as the nation was freed from the confinements.The festive season,devoid of restrictions and any fear of the contagion,was exemplary with record high sales volumes and value.Retail credit in India grew to INR 37.7 Tn in October 2022,recording a growth of 20%y-o-y,despite the rise in interest rates.2022 recorded 74 Bn UPI transactions of INR 125.94 Tn,compared to 38 Bn transactions valued at INR 71.54 Tn a year ago.This revival of consumer sentiments and penchant for consumption was promptly acted upon by majority of the brands,retailers,and mall developers.Several national and global retailers quickly re-assessed their portfolios and charted ambitious expansion plans across the country.Tier-II and III also gained much prominence due to the large-scale reverse migration and opening up of employment centres in these cities.The established retail real estate assets have also witnessed heightened activities as patrons were seen to be thronging again.This is evident from the significant rise in footfalls and improved occupancy of 94%in established Grade A malls across the major cities.This has caused rental values in malls to appreciate predominantly in cities like Bengaluru,Kolkata,and MMR.The retail market size is expected to touch USD 2 Tn by 2032,growing from USD 690 Bn in 2021,facilitating 25GR for the organised retail sector.E-commerce is likely to gain further momentum,triggered by convenience and acceptance across the country.Being cognisant of this fact,new malls admeasuring 25 Mn sq ft are likely to be added across the top 7 cities in the coming years.Major supply is likely to be added in NCR and Hyderabad which accounts for nearly 46%.Private equity investments in the retail real estate segment also recovered with total investment in 2022 estimated to be USD 267 Mn,significantly higher than the previous year and accounted for 5%of the total private equity investments in the real estate sector during the year.The average ticket size of USD 134 Mn is similar to that of 2019.This confirms the investors continued faith in the potential of the retail sector in India.I hope you find this report insightful.Always happy to hear your views.Foreword India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|1Indian Retail Real Estate:An OverviewMalls:Introduction and Evolution in IndiaThe mall culture kicked off in India just before the turn of the 21st century with a few places operational in select cities of India.However,the reach and scale were nothing compared to what it is today.In fact,pre-2006 when the retail market was not open to Foreign Direct Investment(FDI),the growth of malls in India was extremely limited.As soon as FDI was allowed in single-brand retail in 2006 and multi-brand in 2012,mall development in India grew by leaps and bounds and the populace at large,began spending a lot of time in these places for shopping,dining,and having a good time with family and friends.2|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedNo FDI allowedPre-20062006-20122012 and beyondSingle storeSingle brand51I for single-brand retailShopping centres with multiple storesShopping from a select set of brandsMALL EVOLUTION TIMELINE IN INDIAREGULATIONSDOMINANT RETAIL FORMATPRODUCT OFFERINGSBUYER PROFILEMALL MARKETING100I for single-brand retail51I for multi-brand retailLoyalty programsSMS campaignsE-mail marketingBillboards and hoardingsPrice consciousBrand inconsiderateNon-impulsiveWord of mouthFlyersDriven by discountsNeed-basedLow brand loyaltyBrand-owned storesStores-in-storeFranchise storesMultiple brandsDining optionsFamily entertainment centresBrand consciousImpulsiveConvenience drivenLimited price consciousSocial media Customer engagement channelsBrand and mall marketing integrationBillboards and hoardings India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|3Malls:Demand-Supply DynamicsThe Indian mall story that kicked off around two decades ago has seen several peaks and troughs.Many disturbances came along the way,but the retail real estate sector has been resilient and made a strong comeback after each disruption.The resilience was built along as the sector kept on changing its shape and form to adapt to the changing market conditions.GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS(GFC)WRONGLY BUILT MALLSE-COMMERCE BOOMCOVID-19 PANDEMICFour key catastrophes that disturbed the Indian retail real estate sectors growth momentum.1.GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS(GFC)The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 is widely referred to as The Great Recession.It began with the housing market bubble,created by an overwhelming load of mortgage-backed securities that bundled high-risk loans.India was and continues to be closely knit in the global economy and so had to face the brunt of the crisis.The mall story which had kicked off in India,also faced issues as the GFC impacted the consumption pattern.From the World Bank database,a quick look at the Households and NPISHs(Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households)final consumption expenditure(%of GDP)for India indicates that consumption during the GFC days had gone down significantly and then,took a while to recover.4|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced2.WRONGLY BUILT MALLSAs the Government of India relaxed the FDI norms,retailers rushed to make the most out of Indias booming story.Concurrently,many new malls popped up across Indias metros and tier-I cities.Unfortunately,a lot of these were wrongly built in terms of location or layout.Due to these reasons,Indias mall story paused temporarily until the demand-supply equilibrium was established.3.E-COMMERCE BOOMIn India,e-commerce was introduced in the true sense in 2002 when IRCTC launched an online reservation system.It was then that the people at large realised the true potential of the internet and e-commerce.Post 2002,e-commerce started proliferating in India step by step.Subsequently,Flipkart,Amazon,and many other platforms made a mark.Online retail started flourishing in India a couple of years ago only.Yet,it continues to be a smaller pie of the entire retail market.However,as per industry estimates,the online retail market in India is around 25%of the total organised retail market but is likely to be around 37%by 2030.19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202148505254565860626466Households and NPISHs Final Consumption Expenditure(%of India GDP)%of GDPSource:World Bank,ANAROCK ResearchWrong LocationOversupply in Certain Cities or AreasLimited CashflowsLow Footfalls&Trading DensityFailed to Attract TenantsNon-profitable ExistenceIll-Planned LayoutWrongly Built Malls India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|5Despite the rising penetration of online retail in the total organised market,it continues to command a very small pie of the overall business as India continues to be a dominant offline retail market,the reason being dearth of community and open spaces.Nonetheless,the e-commerce boom in India certainly made the retailers aware of the pros and cons of this segment and so rearranged their offline businesses to ensure that the dependence on physical retail does not jeopardise their existence.Retailers ensured product availability on their websites,marketplaces as well as physical stores.Source:India Brand Equity Foundation(IBEF),Compiled by ANAROCK ResearchShares of Various Segments in E-commerce Retail by Value(2020)Consumer Electronics 40%Food and Grocery 7%Others 2%Apparels 40%Furniture 4%Jewellery 7%Source:India Brand Equity Foundation(IBEF),Compiled by ANAROCK ResearchOnline Retail out of TotalRetail in India(2019)Offline Retail 95.3%Online Retail 4.7%Online Retail Out of TotalRetail in India(2024F)Offline Retail 89.3%Online Retail 10.7%6|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced4.COVID-19 PANDEMICThis was an unprecedented crisis that impacted the world,leading to a large-scale loss of life and livelihoods.First time in the history of mankind,people were confined to their homes,and businesses were shut.The pandemic derailed many businesses,and the retail sector was no different.Both supply and demand were curtailed as construction activities halted and shopping was no longer a priority.As per Confederation of All India Traders(CAIT)estimates,eight Crore retail and wholesale traders incurred a loss of INR 6.25 Lakh Crore due to the Covid-19 lockdown and restrictions.As the pandemic ebbed and markets reopened,the retail sector made a significant comeback.Retailers and mall owners realised the power of technology as during the pandemic,shoppers resorted to the online mode.Consequently,retailers have adopted the omnichannel strategy as a way of life and have made several changes to their procurement,supply chain,and deliveries to ensure that no stone is unturned.Malls also changed their business strategies and ensured that the patrons get a safe experiential shopping environment.India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|7Indias economic potential lies in the growth of smaller cities that have been witnessing transformation on all fronts urban housing,infrastructure,offices,and retail real estate.In recognition of the opportunity in these smaller towns and cities,the retail sector has furthered its penetration to newer markets.The transformation of the buying behaviour in tier-II and III cities have compelled brands and developers to revisit their portfolio.The rising consumption fuelled by the increase in earnings led to increased discretionary spending.Most of these cities have established main streets and bazaars but discerning buyers today look for an experience where shopping is clubbed with leisure,entertainment,and food.This paradigm shift in the mindset and requirements has led to the thriving demand for retail real estate in these new markets.Emerging new catchments and increased real estate developments across major asset classes in tier-II and III cities have been triggered due to the rise in commercial and business activities.The availability of large land parcels and lower rentals compared to the larger cities have also been instrumental in attracting many brands.Major developers are also looking to expand their asset footprint in these new locations.Deeper mobile penetration and an increase in per capita earnings have also enabled the growth of retail in smaller cities.It is observed that the aspirational class is seen to patronise and demand high-end brands.The spending in this category in tier-II cities has increased to over 50%compared to the pre-pandemic period.The Rise of Tier-II and Tier-III citiesIndian Retail Real Estate:Key Trends8|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedThe retail sector in India is largely unorganised.However,the share of organised retail is seen to be growing at a rapid pace and accounts for over 18%presently from 9%in FY19.The segment has grown at a CAGR of over 20%and promises a stronger growth in the future,as per IBEF.The festive season for the current fiscal also witnessed increased volumes and values as reported by the stakeholders.The sales volume of the organised retail segment in FY22 was estimated to be USD 52 Bn and is estimated to grow to USD 136 Bn by 2028 with a CAGR of 17%.Entry of new brands into the market,changing demographic profiles,and evolving consumer tastes and preferences are expected to sustain this growth in consumption.The long-term outlook of organised retail in India continues to remain promising.Growth of Organised Retail India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|9Mall operators have started to reverse the concessions offered to the occupiers during the pandemic and the renewals are as per the prevailing trends.There has been a rise in rentals in the malls by nearly 15%which is higher than the pre-pandemic levels.This has also led to the churn among the occupiers.There has been a churning of brands and categories in existing shopping malls to keep up with changing customer demands and accommodate newer global businesses.Brands and tenants that could not sustain the aftermath of the pandemic were replaced by new brands who are now looking for larger spaces as the stores are also used as last mile fulfilment centres,for those who are operating in the omni channel.Currently,a high degree of integration of physical and digital is taking place to provide an interactive and all-inclusive experience.So clearly,phygital is the way forward for the retail sector.Globally,retail REITs have been in practice for decades and is a sought-after investment avenue.The combined market cap of top 10 retail REITs traded in NASDAQ is estimated to over USD 200 Bn.After the success of REITs in office parks,India is awaiting its maiden retail REIT.Nexus Select Trust plans to raise USD 500 Mn from their portfolio,spanning 17 malls with a leasable area admeasuring 9.8 Mn sq ft,two complementary hotels assets with 354 keys,and three office assets with a leasable area of approximately 1.3 Mn sq ft.While this may just be the beginning of a new era in retail investments,other developers may follow the suit after seeing the success of the maiden REIT.Retail REIT in the OffingRental Revision and Occupier Churn10|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedIndian retail sector has grown multi-fold over the past decade amid rapid socio-economic developments and a conducive environment.E-commerce platforms worked as a catalyst for this precipitous growth of the sector.The sector had taken a momentary pause during the pandemic,diverting from its growth path.However,it recovered and witnessed a 19%rise in sales over pre-pandemic levels during April-November 2022,as per RAI(Retailers Association of India).The sector has immense upside potential.As per BCG,India is anticipated to become the worlds third-largest consumer economy by reaching USD 400 Bn in consumption by 2025.Some of the major factors listed below which enable consumption-driven retail growth in India.Retail Consumption Saga India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|11Number of Households&their Income Around 30 Crore households as of 2021;increased by 21%compared to 20111.Per capita income more than doubled to INR 1.97 Lakh in 2022 compared to 20142.Rising Prominence of E-commerce Platforms Innovative platforms emerged such as e-pharmacy,quick e-commerce,online grocery,and wellness marketplaces.Government initiatives to boost e-commerce across the country ONDC(Open Network for Digital Commerce)enabling,millions of small retailers to participate in digital commerce.The pandemic catalysed the sectors growth as the physical movement of goods and services was restricted.As per industry estimates,the e-retail market is anticipated to reach USD 120-140 Bn by FY26,increasing at 25%-30%annually over the next five years.Innovative Financing&Convenience of Digital Payments Credit became easy with no-cost EMI options.The rise of digital payments such as UPI and plastic money supported retail growth in India.UPI processed a record of 8.03 Bn transactions in January 2023(2.7%higher compared to the previous month),worth INR 12.99 Lakh Crore.1Global Data.2Union Budget 202312|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedPrivate Equity(PE)Investments Started Recovering Post-Covid-19 Outbreak 201900%1,20020%1,000150600400200202020212022(USD Mn)PE Investments in Retail10%5%Total PE Investments in Retail%Share of Total PE Investment in Real Estate(2019-2022)City-wise PE Investments 23%|Hyderabad 17%|MMR 10%|NCR 50%|Other Source:ANAROCK Research The sector attracted around USD 1,473 Mn between 2019 and 2022.The year 2019 alone accounted for 76%of the total investments during the same period stated above.Post-pandemic,the PE investments started recovering but still could not reach the pre-pandemic levels.The share of PE investments in retail of the total PE investments in real estate has decreased to 6%in 2022 from 16%in 2019.However,the average ticket size of USD 134 Mn is almost equal to the average ticket size in 2019,establishing the fact that larger sized deals have been registered during 2022.Equity investment is a preferred choice of investors,accounted for 99%of the total investments between 2019 and 2022.Hyderabad and MMR accounted for nearly 40%of the total PE investments in the sector.COVID-19 India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|13Malls Overview:Tier-I CitiesStock 51.0 Mn sq ft NCR&MMR:43%share3Vacancy 6%Avg.Rent 260(INR/sq ft/month)Annual change:13%Note:Details for Grade A malls;Supply for 2022;under-construction,vacancy&avg.rent are as of Q4 2022;Avg.rent is on a chargeable area basis for ground-floor vanilla stores in top mallsSource:ANAROCK Research3 Top 7 Tier-I cities included for the analysis are Bengaluru,Chennai,Hyderabad,Kolkata,MMR,NCR,and Pune across all sizes of mall spaces.Under Construction 25.0 Mn sq ft To be completed by 2026Supply 2.6 Mn sq ft Annual change:27|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedStockSource:ANAROCK ResearchNCR 22ngaluru 19%Pune 10%MMR 21%Chennai 10%Hyderabad 11%Kolkata 7%City-wise Split51 Mn sq ft stock across the country;NCR,MMR,and Bengaluru account for 62%of the total stock.India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|150Yearly Supply(Mn sq ft)City-wise Split(2022)20223.020211.02.51.52.00.5Source:ANAROCK ResearchBengaluru 71%Hyderabad 2961048Delivery Timeline(Mn sq ft)City-wise Split12Source:ANAROCK ResearchNCR 24ngaluru 19%Pune 5%MMR 13%Chennai 6%Hyderabad 22%Kolkata 11 232026&Beyond20252024SupplyUnder Construction SupplyTop 7 cities added 2.6 Mn sq ft of mall space during 2022,which increased by 27%over the previous year.Nearly 25 Mn sq ft mall space is likely to be added in the next 4-5 years.Bengaluru and Hyderabad were the only cities which reported the supply addition during 2022.NCR and Hyderabad account for 46%of the total upcoming supply,closely followed by Bengaluru at 19%.16|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedSource:ANAROCK ResearchSize-wise(No.of Deals)Category-wise SplitAbsorptionLeases admeasuring less than 2,000 sq ft continued to dominate across Tier-I cities with 59%share in 2022;However,it has decreased from 64%in 2021.The share of entertainment in absorption increased from 2%in 2021 to 28%in 2022 as COVID-19 receded and consumers started to flock to malls more often.The share of transactions sized between 2,000 sq ft to 5,000 sq ft increased from 24%in 2021 to 28%in 2022.Apparel,Entertainment,and F&B together accounted for 70%of the total absorption in 2022.15,000 sq ft10,000 sq ft-15,000 sq ft59d%6%5($%5%4%2%3%Inner Circle:2021Outer Circle:2022ApparelF&BEntertainmentHome&LifestyleFootwear28(%2%5C%6%6%Inner Circle:2021Outer Circle:2022Others India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|1718|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced0100200300City-wise Rent(INR/sq ft/month)400Note:Avg.rents are as of Q4 2022 and on a chargeable area basis for ground-floor vanilla stores in top mallsSource:ANAROCK ResearchBengaluruMMRNCRHyderabadPuneChennaiKolkata20212022RentalsRentals increased by 9%in MMR during 2022 over the previous year the lowest hike among the Tier-I cities.For all the cities,rentals moved northward as demand for mall space increased significantly.Bengaluru registered the highest uptick in rentals,around 27%,followed by Kolkata at 20%in 2022 over the previous year.India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|19AHMEDABADEmerged as an important economic and industrial hub in IndiaMalls Overview:Tier-II Cities20|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedGrowth DriversMalls OverviewPopulation 5.6 Mn The Most Populous City of GujaratWorking Population 67-59 Age GroupInternational Airport Yes 7th Busiest in IndiaDistance from Capital City 25 KM Known as the Twin City of GandhinagarDistance from Mundra Port 350 KM Largest Private Port in IndiaEconomic Activities Textile&Garments Industry Major Growth Drivers of the EconomySmart Cities Mission One of the Hundred Cities Infused GrowthMetro Rail 38 KM long Stretch of Phase-1 OperationalEase of Living Index 3rd Rank Within the Cities with Mn PopulationSource:Census 2011,Gujarat Metro Rail,Compiled by ANAROCK ResearchCulture Kite Flying&Navratri Attract Tourists from the WorldStock 2.4 Mn sq ft 11%of Tier-II Cities4Avg.Rent 230(INR/sq ft/month)Annual Change:15%Vacancy 9%Supply Nil Annual Change:NAUnder Construction 0.8 Mn sq ft To be Completed by 2023Mall Space per Capita 0.4 sq ftNote:Details for all grade malls;Supply for 2022;under-construction,vacancy&avg.rent are as of Q4 2022;Avg.rent is on a chargeable area basis for ground-floor vanilla stores in top mallsSource:ANAROCK Research4 Top 10 Tier-II cities included for the analysis are Ahmedabad,Bhubaneswar,Chandigarh,Coimbatore,Indore,Jaipur,Kochi,Lucknow,Thiruvananthapuram,and Visakhapatnam India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|21BHUBANESWARA regional gateway to the Golden Tourist Triangle of Puri,Konark and Chilika Lake22|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedPopulation 0.8 Mn The Largest City of OdishaStock 1.7 Mn sq ft 7%of Tier-II Cities6Supply Nil Annual Change:NAUnder Construction NilWorking Population 70-59 Age GroupGrowth DriversMalls OverviewInternational Airport Yes 1.9 Mn Passengers Handled5Distance from Nearest Metro City 450 KM Connected via Air,Road,Rail,&SeaSmart Cities Mission One of the Hundred Cities Infused GrowthDistance from Nearest Port Dhamra Port Boost to the Economy Through EXIMEconomic Activities Tourism Known as the City of TemplesEase of Living Index 2nd Rank Within the Cities with Mn PopulationSource:Smart City,Census 2011,Compiled by ANAROCK Research5FY22Note:Details for all grade malls;Supply for 2022;under-construction,vacancy&avg.rent are as of Q4 2022;Avg.rent is on a chargeable area basis for ground-floor vanilla stores in top mallsSource:ANAROCK Research6Top 10 Tier-II cities included for the analysis are Ahmedabad,Bhubaneswar,Chandigarh,Coimbatore,Indore,Jaipur,Kochi,Lucknow,Thiruvananthapuram,and VisakhapatnamVacancy 8%Mall Space per Capita 2.1 sq ftAvg.Rent 145(INR/sq ft/month)Annual Change:Nil India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|23CHANDIGARHAmong the finest examples of urban planning and modern architecture in a city24|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedPopulation 1.1 Population Density of 9,258 Almost Equal to DelhisStock 1.7 Mn sq ft 7%of Tier-II Cities10Working Population 68-59 Age GroupAvg.Rent 175(INR/sq ft/month)Annual Change:17%Growth DriversMalls OverviewDistance from National Capital 245 KM Connected via Air,Rail,and RoadPer Capita GSDP(FY20)USD 5,220 Higher than Indias USD 1,9838 Proposed Metro Rail 64 KM Long To Decongest the Tricity9Economic Activities Government Administrative Jobs Known as the Pensioners ParadiseSmart Cities Mission One of the Hundred Cities Infused GrowthEase of Living Index 29th Rank Within the Cities with Mn PopulationSource:Census 2011,IBEF,Compiled by ANAROCK Research7FY22|8Data for FY19|9Tricity includes Chandigarh,Mohali,&PanchkulaNote:Details for all grade malls;Supply for 2022;under-construction,vacancy&avg.rent are as of Q4 2022;Avg.rent is on a chargeable area basis for ground-floor vanilla stores in top mallsSource:ANAROCK Research10Top 10 Tier-II cities included for the analysis are Ahmedabad,Bhubaneswar,Chandigarh,Coimbatore,Indore,Jaipur,Kochi,Lucknow,Thiruvananthapuram,and VisakhapatnamSupply Nil Annual Change:NAVacancy 11%Under Construction NilMall Space per Capita 1.5 sq ftInternational Airport Yes 2.0 Mn Passengers Handled7Well-Planned City Joint Capital of Punjab&Haryana And a Union Territory(UT)India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|25COIMBATOREOne of the most industrialised cities in Tamil Nadu26|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedPopulation 1.1 Mn 2nd Largest in Tamil Nadu(TN)Stock 1.3 Mn sq ft 6%of Tier-II Cities12Supply Nil Annual Change:NA Under Construction 0.4 Mn sq ftTo be Completed by 2023Working Population 68-59 Age GroupAvg.Rent 90(INR/sq ft/month)Annual Change:13%Vacancy 9%Mall Space per Capita 1.2 sq ftGrowth DriversMalls OverviewEase of Living Index 7th Rank Within the Cities with Mn PopulationDistance from Nearest Port(Kochi)190 Km Handles 13.5 Mn tons of CargoSource:Government of Tamil Nadu,Census 2011,Compiled by ANAROCK Research11FY22Note:Details for all grade malls;Supply for 2022;under-construction,vacancy&avg.rent are as of Q4 2022;Avg.rent is on a chargeable area basis for ground-floor vanilla stores in top mallsSource:ANAROCK Research12Top 10 Tier-II cities included for the analysis are Ahmedabad,Bhubaneswar,Chandigarh,Coimbatore,Indore,Jaipur,Kochi,Lucknow,Thiruvananthapuram,and VisakhapatnamInternational Airport Yes 1.1 Mn Passengers Handled11Contribution to TNs GSDP 7%2nd Largest City After ChennaiEconomic Activities Textile&Tourism Known as the Manchester of South IndiaSmart Cities Mission One of the Hundred Cities Infused GrowthProposed Metro Rail 139 KM long DPR Completed India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|27INDOREKnown as Mini Bombay due to its rapid economic growth28|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedPopulation 2.0 Mn Largest by Population in Madhya Pradesh(MP)Supply 1.1 Mn sq ft Annual Change:NAUnder Construction 0.5 Mn sq ft To be Completed by 2024Working Population 65-59 Age GroupVacancy 20%Mall Space per Capita 1.2 sq ftGrowth DriversMalls OverviewInternational Airport Yes 1.4 Mn Passengers Handled14Cleanest City 1st Rank13 For the 6th Consecutive YearCulture Street Food&Multi-Religious Night Food Markets(Sarafa Bazaar)Distance from Economic Capital(Mumbai)583 Km Provides a Large Consumption MarketEconomic Activities Pithampur Industrial Area Known as the Detroit of MPUnder Construction Metro Rail 32 KM Long(Phase-1)Expected to be Completed by Sept.2023Smart Cities Mission One of the Hundred Cities Infused GrowthEase of Living Index 9th Rank Within the Cities with Mn PopulationSource:MP Metro Rail Corporation,Census 2011,Compiled by ANAROCK Research13In Swachh Survekshan Awards 2022|14FY22Note:Details for all grade malls;Supply for 2022;under-construction,vacancy&avg.rent are as of Q4 2022;Avg.rent is on a chargeable area basis for ground-floor vanilla stores in top mallsSource:ANAROCK Research15Top 10 Tier-II cities included for the analysis are Ahmedabad,Bhubaneswar,Chandigarh,Coimbatore,Indore,Jaipur,Kochi,Lucknow,Thiruvananthapuram,and VisakhapatnamStock 2.4 Mn sq ft 11%of Tier-II Cities15Avg.Rent 150(INR/sq ft/month)Annual Change:25%India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|29JAIPURPart of the golden triangle(tourist circuit)of India30|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedPopulation 3.0 Mn Estimated to Reach 8.1 Mn by 2031 Stock 2.3 Mn sq ft 10%of Tier-II Cities18Supply 0.3 Mn sq ft Annual Change:NAUnder Construction 2.0 Mn sq ftTo be Completed by 2028Culture Multi-Religious&Multi-Lingual Known as the Pink CityAvg.Rent 180(INR/sq ft/month)Annual Change:NilVacancy 13%Mall Space per Capita 0.8 sq ftGrowth DriversMalls OverviewDistance from National Capital 274 Km Connected via Air,Rail,and Road Distance from Mundra Port 900 Km Largest Private Port in IndiaSource:Census 2011,IBEF,Rajasthan Transport Department,Compiled by ANAROCK Research16FY22|17Data for RajasthanNote:Details for all grade malls;Supply for 2022;under-construction,vacancy&avg.rent are as of Q4 2022;Avg.rent is on a chargeable area basis for ground-floor vanilla stores in top mallsSource:ANAROCK Research18Top 10 Tier-II cities included for the analysis are Ahmedabad,Bhubaneswar,Chandigarh,Coimbatore,Indore,Jaipur,Kochi,Lucknow,Thiruvananthapuram,and VisakhapatnamInternational Airport Yes 2.5 Mn Passengers Handled16Capital City Capital of Rajasthan Included Under DMIC ProjectEconomic Activities Tourism&Handicrafts 220 Mn Tourists in 202117;Jaipur is a Major AttractionSmart Cities Mission One of the Hundred Cities Infused GrowthMetro Rail 12 KM long 23 KM Stretch Proposed Under Phase-2Ease of Living Index 23rd Rank Within the Cities with Mn Population India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|31KOCHIKnown as the financial,commercial&industrial capital of Kerala32|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedPopulation 0.6 Mn Likely to Reach 1 Mn by 2031Supply Nil Annual Change:NAUnder Construction 0.6 Mn sq ft To be Completed by 2023Working Population 66-59 Age GroupVacancy 12%Mall Space per Capita 3.2 sq ftGrowth DriversMalls OverviewInternational Airport Yes 31 Countries ConnectedDistance from Capital City(Thiruvananthapuram)200 KmConnected via Air,Road,Rail,and SeaCulture Blend of Traditional&Modern Cosmopolitan Culture is EvolvingPort City Kochi Port Boost to the Economy by EXIMEconomic Activities Tourism&EXIM Known as the Queen of the Arabian SeaMetro Rail 27 Km LongPhase 1(B)&2 are Under ConstructionSmart Cities Mission One of the Hundred Cities Infused GrowthEase of Living Index 39th Rank Within the Cities with Mn PopulationSource:Kochi Metro,Census 2011,Compiled by ANAROCK ResearchNote:Details for all grade malls;Supply for 2022;under-construction,vacancy&avg.rent are as of Q4 2022;Avg.rent is on a chargeable area basis for ground-floor vanilla stores in top mallsSource:ANAROCK Research19Top 10 Tier-II cities included for the analysis are Ahmedabad,Bhubaneswar,Chandigarh,Coimbatore,Indore,Jaipur,Kochi,Lucknow,Thiruvananthapuram,and VisakhapatnamStock 1.9 Mn sq ft 8%of Tier-II Cities19Avg.Rent 270(INR/sq ft/month)Annual Change:13%India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|33LUCKNOWA seamless blend of medieval and modern architecture34|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedPopulation 2.8 Mn 2nd Largest in Uttar Pradesh(UP)Stock 6.3 Mn sq ft 28%of Tier-II Cities20Supply 1.6 Mn sq ft Annual Change:NAUnder Construction NilCulture Multi-Cultural&Multi-Lingual Amalgamation of Hindu and Muslim RulersAvg.Rent 160(INR/sq ft/month)Annual Change:14%Vacancy 7%Mall Space per Capita 2.2 sq ftGrowth DriversMalls OverviewDistance from National Capital 500 Km 8 Hours Far via Yamuna ExpresswayGSDP(Lucknow District)INR 44,206 Crore 4%of UPSource:Government of UP,Census 2011,Uttar Pradesh Metro Rail Corporation,Compiled by ANAROCK ResearchNote:Details for all grade malls;Supply for 2022;under-construction,vacancy&avg.rent are as of Q4 2022;Avg.rent is on a chargeable area basis for ground-floor vanilla stores in top mallsSource:ANAROCK Research20Top 10 Tier-II cities included for the analysis are Ahmedabad,Bhubaneswar,Chandigarh,Coimbatore,Indore,Jaipur,Kochi,Lucknow,Thiruvananthapuram,and VisakhapatnamInternational Airport Yes USD 1.2 Bn to be Invested for ExpansionCapital City Capital of UP Largest City by Area in UPEconomic Activities Agriculture&SMEs(Handicrafts,Embroidery)Known for Embroidery Work Chikankari&ZardoziSmart Cities Mission One of the Hundred Cities Infused GrowthMetro Rail 23 KM long Daily Ridership Crossed 91,000 as of Oct22Ease of Living Index 26th Rank Within the Cities with Mn Population India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|35THIRUVANANTHAPURAMThe capital city of Kerala possesses inherent demand due to the large consumer base36|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedPopulation 0.7 Mn Highest Population in KeralaSupply Nil Annual Change:NAUnder Construction NilWorking Population 66-59 Age GroupVacancy 11%Mall Space per Capita 3.6 sq ftGrowth DriversMalls OverviewInternational Airport Yes 1.4 Mn Passengers Handled21Largest City by Area215 sq kmCapital City of KeralaCulture Multi-CulturalKnown as the Evergreen City of IndiaPort City Vizhinjam Port Transhipment Deepwater Multipurpose PortEconomic Activities Tourism&Aerospace Vikram Sarabhai Space CentreProposed Light Metro Rail 22 Km LongDPR ApprovedSmart Cities Mission One of the hundred cities Infused GrowthDistance from Economic Capital(Kochi)200 Km Connected via Air,Road,Rail,and SeaSource:Census 2011,Compiled by ANAROCK Research21FY22Note:Details for all grade malls;Supply for 2022;under-construction,vacancy&avg.rent are as of Q4 2022;Avg.rent is on a chargeable area basis for ground-floor vanilla stores in top mallsSource:ANAROCK Research22Top 10 Tier-II cities included for the analysis are Ahmedabad,Bhubaneswar,Chandigarh,Coimbatore,Indore,Jaipur,Kochi,Lucknow,Thiruvananthapuram,and VisakhapatnamStock 2.5 Mn sq ft 8%of Tier-II Cities22Avg.Rent 80(INR/sq ft/month)Annual Change:7%India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|37VISAKHAPATNAMLargest and most populous city of Andhra Pradesh38|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedPopulation 1.7 Mn Largest City in Andhra PradeshStock 0.3 Mn sq ft 2%of Tier-II Cities24Supply Nil Annual Change:NAUnder Construction 0.7 Mn sq ftTo be Completed by 2026Working Population 68-59 Age GroupAvg.Rent 125(INR/sq ft/month)Annual Change:14%Vacancy 13%Mall Space per Capita 0.2 sq ftGrowth DriversMalls OverviewEase of Living Index 15th Rank Within the Cities with Mn PopulationPort City Visakhapatnam Port One of the 12 Major Ports of IndiaSource:Government of Andhra Pradesh,Greater Visakhapatnam Municipal Corporation,Census 2011,Compiled by ANAROCK Research23FY22Note:Details for all grade malls;Supply for 2022;under-construction,vacancy&avg.rent are as of Q4 2022;Avg.rent is on a chargeable area basis for ground-floor vanilla stores in top mallsSource:ANAROCK Research24Top 10 Tier-II cities included for the analysis are Ahmedabad,Bhubaneswar,Chandigarh,Coimbatore,Indore,Jaipur,Kochi,Lucknow,Thiruvananthapuram,and VisakhapatnamInternational Airport Yes 1.4 Mn Passengers Handled23Distance from Capital City(Hyderabad)618 KM Connected via Air,Road,and RailEconomic Activities Manufacturing&Tourism Ship Building and Steel Plants;Pristine BeachesSmart Cities Mission One of the Hundred Cities Infused GrowthProposed Metro Rail 80 KM Long Yet to Submit DPR for Approval India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforced|39Way ForwardThe retail sector has yet again proved its resilience and dynamism to recover from the disruption.The rebound has been exemplary,driven by the rising consumption.This had a favourable impact on retail real estate across the country.The rapid growth in organised retail is expected to continue in the future since India is the fastest-growing major economy in the world,at present.Rising consumption is likely to continue fuelling demand for the retail sector across geographies,thereby creating opportunities for further improvement in real estate-related activities.It is anticipated that,as technological advancement and adaption gain momentum in the retail sector,the need for real estate space is also likely to undergo some alteration.The stores are likely to evolve and double up as warehouses for the last-mile connectivity will require larger spaces.Omnichannel is seriously on the mind of every retail brand.Despite new supply addition admeasuring 25 Mn sq ft of malls across tier I cities,the prevailing low vacancy levels will be the primary driver of rental values.It is anticipated that the established malls and major high streets will witness rental appreciation in the range of 10%to 20%.As the retailers and brands are seen to be aggressively expanding their footprint in newer geographies,developers are also expanding their retail portfolio across the country.Owing to this trend,it is expected that new retail catchments will emerge across tier-II and III cities.The countrys maiden retail focussed REIT is expected to open new opportunities for investors.It is expected to be a game changer as evidenced by the improving leasing patterns leading to high occupancy across the established malls in the country.While the future of the retail sector looks bright,one needs to be mindful of a few factors.The threat of untamed inflation and the fear of a global recession could have an unfavourable impact.The recurrence of the pandemic,leading to the momentary imposition of restrictions,if any,may also pose a challenge.40|India Retail Real Estate:REvived,REshaped,&REinforcedANAROCK is Indias leading independent real estate services company with a presence across India and the Middle East.The Company has diversified interests across the real estate lifecycle and deploys its proprietary technology platform to accelerate marketing and sales.The ANAROCK services suite includes Residential Broking&Technology,Retail(in partnership with Vindico),Commercial,Investment Banking,Hospitality(in partnership with HVS),Land Services,Industrial and Logistics(in partnership with Binswanger),Investment Management,Research,Strategic Advisory&Valuations and Project Management Services(in partnership with Mace),Flexi Spaces(in partnership with myHQ&Upflex)and Society Management Services(acquisition of ApnaComplex-India/ANACITY-EMEA).ANAROCK has a team of over 2200 certified and experienced real estate professionals who operate across all major Indian and Middle East markets.ANAROCK also manages over 80,000 established channel partners to ensure global business coverage.Please visit .AuthorsVirendra Joshi Senior Vice President Research Ravindra Kumar Kumawat Senior Manager Research Ashim Bhanja Chowdhury Vice President Research Retailers Association of India(RAI)is the unified voice of Indian retailers.RAI works with all the stakeholders for creating the right environment for the growth of the modern retail industry in India.It is a strong advocate for retailing in India and works with all levels of government and stakeholders to support employment growth and career opportunities in retail,promote and sustain retail investments in communities from coast to coast,and enhance consumer choice and industry competitiveness.For bespoke research requirements,please connect withPrashant Thakur Senior Director&Head of Research Disclaimer:2023 ANAROCK Property Consultants Pvt.Ltd.All rights reserved.This publication is the sole property of ANAROCK Group,and must not be copied,reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,either in whole or in part,without the prior written consent of ANAROCK Group.The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable.However,no representation is made,or warranty given,in respect of the accuracy of this information.We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that we may correct them.ANAROCK does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.

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