Research insights into an autonomous futureInvestigating the potential and merits of Connected and A.
2024-12-29
36页
5星级
THE FUTURE OF URBAN AIR MOBILITYThe integration of air taxis into urban airspace:Findings from HorizonUAM,a research project of the German Aerospace Center(DLR)TABLE OF CONTENTSOverall System Analysis In Chapter 1,urban air mobility is introduced as a system of systems.Use cases and market scenarios are analysed.Safety&SecurityChapter 4 covers the topics of safety of the vehicles,as well as security of the technology involved in the system.Future Perspectives In Chapter 7,a view for the future of the research area,as well as the potential of the industry are discussed.Vertidrome In Chapter 3,the topic of Vertidromes is examined with the focus on integrating them into existing city infrastructure.DemonstrationsChapter 6 covers demonstrations and evaluation of the research.VehicleIn Chapter 2,the design of vehicles is explored,and concepts for the interior as well as the rotor system are discussed.Social AcceptanceIn Chapter 5,the societal acceptance of air taxis is discussed,focusing on sustainability,accessibility and affordability.SUPPORTED BY Photo chapter 1:iS Photo chapter 7:iS Air Mobility(UAM)as part of Innovative Air Mobility(IAM)is a new air transportation system for passengers and cargo in urban environments.It is enabled by new technologies in the fields of aircraft technology,electric propulsion and air traffic management.A core idea is to integrate UAM into existing multimodal transport systems.The vision of UAM is to achieve safe,secure and sustainable air transport in urban and suburban environments,complementing existing transportation systems and contributing to the decarbonisation of the transport sector.UAM is expected to benefit users and to also have a positive impact on the economy by creating new markets,employment opportunities for manufacturing and operation of UAM vehicles,and the construction of related ground infrastructure.However,there are also concerns about noise,safety and security,privacy and environmental impacts.Therefore,the UAM system needs to be designed carefully to become safe,affordable,accessible,environmentally friendly,economically viable and thus sustainable.The German Aerospace Center(Deutsches Zentrum fr Luft und Raumfahrt,DLR)combined its competencies in the areas of UAM vehicles,related infrastructure,operation of UAM services,and public acceptance of future urban air transport into a single project:“HorizonUAM Urban Air Mobility Research at the German Aerospace Center(DLR)”.This document outlines key research topics related to UAM.DLR as the Federal Republic of Germanys research centre for aeronautics and space has the unique ability to investigate UAM holistically,from idea and conception right through to simulation and flight testing.The HorizonUAM project ran from July 2020 to August 2023,with a financial investment of 9.1 Million Euro.Ten DLR institutes across Germany worked together along with cooperation partners NASA and Bauhaus Luftfahrt.Intro|3Overall System AnalysisCan Urban Air Mobility become a reality?Is there a demand for this new type of transportation service?How should a UAM system be designed to be economically promising?Answering these key questions requires a deep understanding of the complex interactions between UAM system components and their impact on system behaviour.The success of UAM is judged by its impact on relevant stakeholders,such as users,operators,and society in general,as well as its impact on the environment.Because air taxis are not yet in operation,models and simulations had to be developed to gather information about the potential pricing of UAM services,assess the global demand,and find out how UAM systems could be optimised.USE CASES UAM comprises various potential use cases in passenger and cargo transport.As one of the starting points of the research,the most interesting use cases were selected with regard to prospects of success and technological challenges.The team analysed the characteristics of these use cases in detail:user requirements were compiled,the resulting consequences for the UAM transport system were derived,and scenarios of the technological development up to the year 2050 were derived.The results are incorporated into the vehicle and cabin design and into the development of a systemofsystems simulation.INTRACITY USE CASETransport range:up to 50 km Speed:up to 100 km/h Seats:up to 4 Flights ondemand within core areas and builtup urban areas of cities in Germany High traffic density and flights in urban environments over short distances Flight mission with up to two intermediate stops without need for rechargingMEGACITY USE CASETransport range:up to 100 km Speed:up to 150 km/h Seats:up to 6 Flights ondemand within core areas and builtup urban areas of global megacities High traffic density and flights in urban environments over large distances Flight mission with no or one intermediate stop without need for recharging iS System AnalysisAIRPORT SHUTTLE USE CASETransport range:up to 30 km Speed:up to 150 km/h Seats:up to 6 Scheduled flights between airports and selected locations(e.g.city centre,central business district,CBD)Vehicle with higher payload capacity and space to store luggage Flight mission between two vertiports with charging capability after each flightSUBURBANCOMMUTER USE CASETransport range:up to 70 km Speed:up to 150 km/h Seats:up to 4 Scheduled flights between suburbs or surrounding satellite cities and the city centre Economically challenging due to high peak demand and low offpeak demand Flight mission between two vertiports with charging capability after each flightINTERCITY USE CASETransport range:over 70 km Speed:over 100 km/h Seats:up to 10 Scheduled flights between two cities Vehicle for long distance flights with high comfort for passengers Flight mission between two vertiports with charging capability after each flight20252050Propulsion technologyFully electric or hybrid electric based on conventional fuelsFully electric or hybrid electric,also hydrogenbasedLevel of autonomyOnboardPilot/RemotePilot*Highly automated autonomousU-Space Service LevelUspace Service Level U1(first Uspace services)Uspace Service Level U2 U3(advanced Uspace services)CommunicationMultilink communications approach relying on existing comm.infrastructureMultilink communications approach with specific datalinkNavigationCertified multisensor navigation including GNSSGlobal Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)and supporting multisensor navigationTECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS*For the intracity and megacity use cases an onboard pilot is assumed,and for the use cases airport shuttle,suburban and intra city a remote pilot.GLOBAL DEMANDA preliminary estimate of the potential global demand for UAM,the associated aircraft movements and the required vehicles is essential for the UAM industry for their longterm planning,but also of interest to other stakeholders such as governments and transportation planners to develop appropriate strategies and actions to implement UAM.There is a general lack of empirical data on the demand for UAM.Furthermore,cities around the world differ in many ways,including size,economic strength,population,geography,etc.Overall System Analysis|5Considering different development paths for air taxi ticket prices and vertiport densities,four potential market development scenarios(S1S4)were outlined.A low vertiport density in a scenario reflects the fact that due to political,environmental,or social reasons,only a few vertiports can be placed.Lower ticket prices may be the result of technological advances in vehicle and infrastructure automation.The results show that significant UAM markets are not expected by 2040,regardless of the cost of ticket prices.The results indicate that a low ticket price is more important than a high vertiport density for higher demands.In the bestcase scenario,a low ticket price and a high density of vertiports could result in a market potential for UAM of 19 million daily trips in over 200 cities worldwide by 2050.UAM demand varies regionally,with high market shares in larger cities,particularly in North America,Oceania,Europe and Asia,influenced by local market conditions.Vertiport DensityAir Taxi PricesScenario 1HighOptimisticScenario 2LowConservativeScenario 3HighConservativeScenario 4LowOptimisticUse CaseIntra CityAirport ShuttleRegionalVehicle nameEhang 216Archer MidnightLilium JetVehicle seats (pas sengers pilot)2(2 0)6(5 1)8(7 1)Flight distance km12.1315.11186.35DOC per FC/km62.07231.30700.83Fare optimistic /km4.16.11.0Fare conservative/km5.78.51.4The team took a modelbased citycentric forecasting approach to estimate global UAM demand,flight movements,and fleet size,and created a schematic urban transport model.The model was applied to 990 international urban areas,each comprising more than 500,000 inhabitants.OPERATING COST AND TICKET FARESThe ticket price remains one of the most critical metrics for the success of UAM.As the ticket price is directly linked to the operating costs of UAM,a model for the estimation and forecast of direct operating costs becomes one of the key models that a UAM operator needs to develop.However,many components of the UAM system that contribute to the direct operating cost are not yet known.Therefore,the team created a model of Direct Operation Cost(DOC).This considers the costs involved in landing,terminal usage,air traffic service charges,maintenance and overhaul,capital cost and depreciation,energy,crew,and flight cycles(FC).The parameters for the DOC estimation were based on existing literature,known prices of general aviation,and conclusions by analogies.Ticket fares were determined by prescribing the share of Indirect Operating Cost(IOC)and profit margin.Cities with viable UAM services in 2050Air Taxi Shareu 50 2502550750,00,51,01,52,02,53,06|Overall System AnalysisThree applications were taken into account for calculating these price estimates:intra city,airport shuttle and regional trips.For each type of flight,an optimistic and a conservative fee per kilometre were calculated.For intra city trips,the optimistic rate is 4.10/km,and the conservative rate is 5.70/km.For airport shuttle trips,the optimistic rate calculated is 6.10/km,and the conservative rate is 8.50/km.For regional trips,the optimistic rate is 1.00/km,and the conservative rate is 1.40/km.The results demonstrate that both mission design and vehicle configuration have a significant impact on the total operating cost per flight.UAM operators need to carefully consider different vehicle configurations,particularly when the demand is low and larger vehicles are operating with lower load factors,as reducing operating costs,and thus fares,is critical to generating sufficient demand to be profitable.OVERALL SYSTEM MODELLING:SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS SIMULATIONSince UAM is a complex system of systems(SoS),with various technical,operational,regulatory,and social components interacting with one another,a holistic approach is essential.The complexity results from the necessary integration of the constituent systems such as aircraft,infrastructure,air traffic management and flight operations into the urban transportation system.In order to create a viable urban transportation system,it is necessary to harmonise the individual system components.To understand and evaluate the systems of a UAM SoS and their interdependencies,a collaborative agentbased simulation of urban air mobility was developed.The integration of the individual modules(or constituent systems)into the agentbased simulation was achieved through the use of the Remote Component Environment(RCE).RCE served the crucial function of seamlessly connecting the models hosted across several institutes.The developed collaborative simulation allows studies in any of the participating domains to be performed while capturing crossdomain effects without compromising the modeling fidelity of the other domains.Furthermore,such an approach can also allow the combined optimization of the individual constituent systems and the overall system of systems.UAM is a highly complex system of systems interacting with each other in intricate ways,some of these potential system interactions are still unknown.Thus,there is significant potential for future research.In order to create a viable urban transportation system,it is necessary to harmonise the individual system components such as vehicles,infrastructure,and the operational framework,including the various air traffic management systems.Reducing operating costs,and therefore fares,and building a sufficiently dense vertiport network are critical to generating enough demand for UAM to be profitable.Battery=MLife CycleUAM SoSArchitectingAircraft,Fleet Design&ManagementPropulsion&Onboard SystemsCabin&AcceptanceMarket,Demand,Concept of Operations&ScenariosUspace,Safety&TrajectoriesVertidromeMeteorologyAirTraffic ManagementEnergy&LifeCycle Analysis Overall System Analysis|7speeds and covering longer distances.Aside from the conceptual design,a more sophisticated level of design and analysis was performed on the multirotor concept.Here,a flightmechanical model was created,through which the aeromechanical rotor analysis and optimisation using blade elements were conducted.An investigation of the initial design limits was also completed.The quadrotor model is suited to intra-city or airport shuttle transfers,and offers space for four passengers including luggage.The design mission should cover a distance of 50 km,up to a speed of 120 km/h,and include two stopovers.The tiltrotor model is suited for sub-urban or megacity trips,and offers seating capacity for four passengers including hand luggage.The average trip would cover a distance of 100 km,with a speed of 200 km/h,and include one stopover.The maximum take-off mass is dependent on payload,range and speed requirements,as well as developments of battery technologies,and will meet EASA Special Condition for small-category VTOL aircraft(SC-VTOL)with a maximum certified take-off mass of 3,175 kg(7,000 lbs)or less.VehicleThe vehicle design was developed collaboratively in accordance with the previously introduced system ofsystems approach.Depending on the use case,different requirements for the vehicle design arise.Comfort requirements of users were identified and taken into consideration for the creation of various vehicle and cabin design concepts.The cabin and the interior design form the interface between air taxi and passenger.As such,they play a crucial role in shaping the passengers perception.These aspects are thought to have a substantial impact on public acceptance of future air taxis.CONCEPTUAL CONFIGURATIONSThe researchers examined various configurations of rotor and wing orientation and evaluated configurational characteristics,such as flight performance and flight stability in various weather conditions.Wherever possible,the design process followed the principles of lownoise design.Based on these investigations,two main vehicle concepts for multiple use cases were proposed:a pusher integrated multirotor configuration and a tiltrotor configuration.The former concept is suitable for shorter distances,whereas the latter is equipped with six tilting rotors mounted on fixed wings to produce thrust in the flight direction,thus achieving higher 28|VehicleCABIN LAYOUT DEFINITION AND OVERALL PARAMETERS While defining potential designs for a cabin,in addition to safety and privacy,ergonomic considerations play an important role.Central requirements have been defined:Payload weight:90 kg( 20 kg optional and additional luggage weight)Piloted vehicle with autonomous flight option Four seats Usability for persons with restricted mobility (storage of wheelchair)Comfort parameters related to seat spacing and width were derived from dimensions found in business class cabins in commercial aviation.The necessary storage space was defined based on average carryon luggage dimensions and dimensions for standard wheelchairs.A cabin layout was designed that meets the requirements of different passengers with the smallest and largest possible physical dimensions.Due to the use case of an airport shuttle,it was determined that at least four pieces of luggage should be carried in the cabin.A seat layout with two rows and two seats per row has been specified.INTERIOR DESIGN CONCEPTSResearch on existing Urban Air Mobility(UAM)vehicles shows that this industry has learned from innovations in the automotive sector.The interiors are based on strong colour contrasts and minimalistic design,conveying a sense of connection to the automotive sector.The cabins are given a light and airy feel through large windows,meant to enhance the flight experience.Seats are most often arranged according to the automotive standard,which assists in creating a familiar experience for passengers.SEATSVarious seating concepts were evaluated by conducting an online survey in Germany in 2021.In the survey,proximity to fellow travellers,eye contact and level of perceived safety and privacy were investigated.Various seat designs were also evaluated in the survey,with inspiration for the seat designs being taken from the aviation industry(business class seat and firstclass seat)and automotive industry,as well as novel seat design concepts.Seat designs inspired by higherclass airline seats were well received by survey participants.Reasons included expected seating comfort,the presence of armrests,and especially the rotated seating position with U shaped headrests for increased privacy.Less familiar seat models with novel shapes and no armrests were negatively received.Vehicle|9LUGGAGE AND STORAGE Survey participants were also provided with different images of luggage storage concepts.The key factors that gained a positive rating among survey participants included sufficient storage space,easy accessibility of luggage during the journey,individual storage options,and secure attachment of the luggage.To ensure sufficient headroom at a cabin height of 1.60m,no storage compartments or displays are envisioned for above the seating areas.To achieve a barrierfree cabin design,storage of wheelchairs has also been taken into consideration.The storage space in the rear area has been defined for this purpose,and upon landing could be reached via a side flap from outside the vehicle.Furthermore,different methods of securing the baggage in the cabin have been explored.It was important to ensure that bags do not move during the flight,while allowing simple storage and removal of luggage when passengers embark and disembark the vehicle.Securing suitcases and bags in front of the passengers was preferred so that travellers can access their belongings during the flight.The following image shows a 3D model of the overall view of the concept.In this concept,three seats have been rotated in the direction of the windows to encourage passengers to look out the window,while the seat in the front part on the righthand side remains unchanged.In this scenario,a pilot is included,but this concept should already be usable for autonomous operation cabin designs.In addition to seating comfort,optimised storage compartments,minimalist design and customisable privacy features,the cabin design incorporates various comfort parameters based on feedback from potential user groups.The deliberate combination of minimalist and easily understandable functions with futuristic and complex design elements enhances the overall comfort and user experience.The passengers influence on the design can have a positive impact on acceptance and the perception of safety,leading to a higher willingness to use air taxis among the general population.Moreover,by addressing fears,desires,and concerns directly and incorporating them into the design concept in collaboration with user groups,the development process of autonomously operated air taxis can lead to increased acceptance in society.10|Vehicle Vehicle|11VertidromeThe functional design and the technical equipment of vertidromes and vertidrome networks are both a challenge and a key driver for the operational deployment of air taxis,as well as the provision of UAM services.In the HorizonUAM project,the generic term“vertidrome”was introduced to describe UAM ground infrastructure used by Vertical Takeoff and Landing(VTOL)aircraft.Vertidrome categories can be further distinguished between a vertiport,which is a fully equipped vertidrome with parking and charging spots,and a vertistop,which solely provides safe takeoff and landing capabilities.A vertiport might additionally offer maintenance,repair and overhaul services.It can also act as a central“hub”in a hubandspoke network with smaller vertistops being located at the outer ends of the“spokes”.This image shows an example layout of a vertidrome and explains its surface features.PadTLOFFATOSafety AreaTaxiwayVertiport(landside)Vertiport(airside)Stand/GateProtection AreaTowing CartThe research on vertidromes included the design and operation of individual vertidromes on a microlevel(1),but also extended to the macrolevel by addressing vertidrome airspace network management(2)and network optimisation(3).Moreover,the opportunities and challenges of integrating air taxi services and vertidrome operations into an airport environment,thus controlled airspace were studied(4),and the approach of developing a UAM model city(5)in order to validate our concepts in scaled flight trials was introduced.The number and arrangement of pads,stands and taxi ways can vary.To evaluate the airside performance of a specific vertidrome layout,an assessment framework,named Vertidrome Airside Level of Service(VALoS),was developed.VALoS considers different stakeholder perspectives(e.g.air taxi operator,passenger,and vertidrome operator)and offers the opportunity to quantify a qualitative vertidrome design in strategic planning phases.The VALoS rating can be used to evaluate the performance of a specific vertidrome configuration for a given performance target and demand distribution.TLOF TouchDown and LiftOff AreaFATO Final Approach and TakeOff Area12|VertidromePotential management concepts and procedures for conflictfree airspace operations were also investigated.One of the concepts was based on direct routes between vertidromes represented as four dimensional trajectories.A second concept made use of a rigid route structure and timeslot management.Exemplarily,20 vertidromes within the city of Hamburg were considered in the networks.Average travel time savings of up to 43%compared to groundbased transportation could be reached.In addition to urban airspace,vertidrome network capacity is a critical resource of the UAM network that,if optimised,can reduce the required vertidrome infrastructure and fleet size to a minimum.For the exemplary Hamburg network,a commuter scenario with 2,800 missions per day was set up.For efficient fleet management,the number of covered passenger kilometres is used as an optimisation parameter for sequence generation,effectively maximising the total distance traveled by passengers per day,and implicitly rewarding sequences with fewer empty seat kilometres.Simulation results showed that a fleet of 275 vehicles is required to operate all 2,800 missions.When assuming that batteries are swapped instead of recharged,the required fleet size could be reduced to 225 vehicles(19%),also resulting in 24%less parking positions required.Integrating a vertidrome at an existing airport poses a challenge to air traffic control(ATC).At the airport,controllers responsibilities include the control and coordination of landing and departing traffic,as well as supervising traffic in the control zone.Adding air taxis to the traffic flow results in additional airspace users with performance characteristics rather different from conventional fixedwing traffic.Hence,the goal should be to provide them with takeoff and landing spaces independent of the runway system,and with favourable independent arrival and departure routes.The control task itself should be designed in a way that the responsible air traffic controllers can maintain their situation Within the simulation trials,it proved to be feasible to integrate air taxis as well as wildlife information into current airport operations.Even though the introduction of UAM traffic led to an increase in reported workload by 44%while situation awareness reduced by 18%,all controllers reported that the changes were all within tolerable limits.Moreover,there was a training effect observed with increasing the number of scenarios,indicating that any negative impact on controllers will decline with additional training.All controllers agreed that a working position dedicated to the handling of UAM traffic should be added in case of increasing UAM traffic.This should facilitate feasibility in higher traffic densities as well.awareness,and that the potential increase in workload remains feasible.The tactical part of the defined processes for the integration of air taxis was tested for feasibility in realtime humanintheloop simulations in DLRs Apron and Tower Simulator with ten air traffic controllers for the reference use case Hamburg airport.In addition to conventional traffic in a peak hour including 44 movements per hour,fifteen air taxis were added per onehour simulation run.Air taxi routes were visualised and active routes were highlighted on the radar screen in order to support controllers in their tasks.In addition,since air taxis are strongly exposed to the risk of wildlife strike due to the flight and performance characteristics of air taxis,information about critical bird movement in the area was displayed on the screen.Vertidrome|13Safety&SecuritySAFETY Safety is the main concern in aviation in regards to public acceptance and regulatory approval for new vehicles and use cases for UAM.Other airspace participants and persons on the ground must remain at the same level of safety that has been established today.This is a challenge for upcoming UAM systems.UAM will need to fit into the existing aviation system which has been established and is supported by a large number of regulations and standards.Integrating UAM into this system is expected to be a considerable challenge for many years to come.SAFE AUTONOMYWith a growing number of air taxis,there will be an increased need for automation and autonomy.Machine learning(ML)technology has seen an immense of growth over the last years,with demand even in safetycritical areas.One example,the detection of persons at a vertidrome during the landing approach.During the HorizonUAM project,this use case of ML technology was developed and demonstrated in flight tests.The detection is performed on board the drone during flight.This would help to ensure that no person on the ground is endangered during landing procedures.This in itself can make the future operations safer.This ML model was developed as one example use case to address the main research:the safe integration of autonomy and specifically ML technology into the safetycritical aviation domain.The challenge is that ML technology is often considered a blackbox system with complete lack of transparency about how they work,and how they calculate results and outcomes.Traditional software is developed based on rules and sequences of commands.On the other hand,ML algorithms are trained by given data,with out explicit rules.This is a huge contrast to traditional software.Therefore,it is difficult to comply to existing standards as The picture shows the landing approach of a simulated air taxi at a vertidrome.There are two persons detected by the onboard autonomy and the landing approach is aborted.14|Safety&Securityestablished in aviation for safetycritical software.Standardisation organisations and authorities are currently developing and establishing new guidelines for the safe use of Machine Learning(ML)in the aviation domain.The European Union Aviation Safety Agency(EASA)has introduced an Artifical Intelligence(AI)roadmap,including first guidance material on how to certify ML systems.Within the project,this process of regulation and standardization of ML was closely monitored and DLR participated in several standardization activities and working groups.SAFE OPERATION MONITORINGOne important finding of this research is the importance of the supervision of the automation functions by an independent safety monitor.When an automation function is carried out by an autonomous algorithm,it is important to verify that the results make sense in the context.The same task is performed by a human pilot,he constantly monitors the situation and checks for any anomalous behaviour.With the Safe Operation Monitoring,DLR developed an automated version of this important supervision task.One important aspect for the utilization of ML is its Operational Design Domain(ODD).This concept describes operating conditions and environmental constraints in which the ML component is expected to operate safely.By supervising the ODD during the flight,the trustworthiness of the ML component can be assessed.FLIGHT TESTSSeveral flight tests were performed during the project.The goal was to generate sets of images that are within and outside the ODD,as well as to investigate the impact of ODD supervision.The test area includes two vertidromes and a container cluster of six units to represent a scaled down model city.The humans to be detected were represented by mannequins which look very similar to real humans on aerial images.In total,twelve flights have been completed during the flight tests at different times of the day.The altitude,flight speed,camera angle and positioning of the mannequins have been changed between flights.Across all flights,6993 images have been recorded with the onboard camera.Visualization of the Safe Operation Monitor(SOM)This picture shows a video stream of the SOM.It gives the remote pilot or safety pilot all necessary information to assess the situation and assess the status of the onboard autonomy.In this case the autonomy is detecting two persons on the vertidrome.High-level architecture for safe ML operation Safety&Security|15COMMUNICATIONFor the realisation of future UAM,reliable information exchange based on robust and efficient communication between all airspace participants will be one of the key factors to ensure safe operations.Due to the high density of piloted and new remotely piloted and autonomous aircraft,air traffic management in urban airspace will be fundamentally different from today.Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management(UTM)will rely on preplanned and conflictfree trajectories,continuous monitoring,and existing communications infrastructure to connect drones to the UTM.However,to mitigate collisions and increase overall reliability,unmanned aircraft still lack a redundant,higherlevel safety net to coordinate and monitor traffic,as is common in todays civil aviation.In addition,direct and fast information exchange based on adhoc communication is needed to cope with the very short reaction times required to avoid collisions and the high traffic density.Therefore,DLR developed a dronetodrone(D2D)communication and surveillance system,called DroneCAST(Drone Communication and Surveillance Technology),which is specifically tailored to the requirements of a future urban airspace and will be part of a multilink approach.As a first step towards an implementation,DLR equipped two drones with hardware prototypes of the experimental communication system and performed several flights around the model city to evaluate the performance of the hardware and to demonstrate different applications that will rely on robust and efficient communication.Furthermore,DLR presented a multilink approach with a focus on an adhoc communication concept that will help to reduce the probability of midair collisions and thus increase social acceptance of urban air mobility.MULTISENSOR NAVIGATIONReliable navigation systems play an essential role in the safe operation of UAM.As a safetycritical application,the passengers expect the vehicles to guarantee safety by not only knowing where they are in order to make operational decisions,but also by ensuring how accurate and reliable this position information is.As a result,the navigation system is required to provide both high accuracy and high integrity.In the urban environments,multisensor navigation is required,since global navigation satellite systems(GNSS)face challenges like low number of satellites in view,multipath propagation due to surrounding buildings as well as radio interferences.However,there are technical and standardisation gaps in certification for multisensor navigation,as there are still no standardised navigation performance requirements for UAM operations,and the quantification of integrity remains a technical challenge for some sensors.Therefore,DLR designed a multisensor navigation architecture for reliable vertiport operations.The architecture includes both an onboard multisensor navigation unit including GNSS receiver,inertial sensors,cameras and barometers,and local reference infrastructures for the sensors.Additionally,progress is being made on requirements analysis,developments and initial validation of the integrity description for the multisensor system towards future standards and certifiable navigation systems for the safe UAM operations.CYBER SECURITYUAM vehicles heavily rely on interconnected systems,which increases vulnerability to cyber threats.Thus,vehicles require robust cybersecurity to protect passengers,infrastructure,and data integrity.16|Safety&SecurityAdditionally,the interconnected UAM system creates numerous vulnerabilities,with each connection point serving as a potential entry for cyberattacks.Securing communication channels via encryption,secure protocols,and regular audits is vital to mitigate risks of data breaches and system compromise.Moreover,the collection and transmission of sensitive data by UAM vehicles raise privacy concerns.Protecting passenger information and ensuring compliance with privacy regulations is essential.Employing data encryption,access controls,and minimisation techniques can mitigate privacy risks and build passenger trust.Additionally,integrating UAM into urban infrastructure creates new attack surfaces,demanding securement of charging stations and air traffic management systems.This entails applying securitybydesign principles and collaborating among UAM developers,regulatory bodies,and cybersecurity experts to set industrywide standards and best practices.HorizonUAM addressed the first development steps of a security perimeter for UAM to already consider security in a holistic and systemwide manner during the design phase and beyond.The main success of the security investigations was an extensive list of primary and supporting assets,as well as listing the threats on these assets,and the possible vulnerabilities which could be exploited by the threats.These lists provide an overview of the main security concerns in UAM.CONCLUSIONThe goal is to retain the high level of safety in aviation,while enabling new types of UAM operation.This is a challenge as UAM sets new requirements in autonomy,communication,navigation,and security.The research done by DLR facilitates the use of new concepts and technology to establish safe and secure UAM operations.Safety&Security|17Social AcceptancePublic acceptance is seen as the key to a successful im ple mentation of UAM.In order to assess current social acceptance levels,and to help people to imagine a future where urban air mobility is part of everyday life,a largescale telephone survey and immersive air taxi simulator experiments were conducted.At the end of 2022,computerassisted telephone interviews were conducted within the German population.A total of 1001 interviews took place,each lasting on average 21 minutes(carried out by BIK Aschpurwis Behrens GmbH).Survey participants were asked about their attitudes towards civilian drones in general and air taxis in particular.Overall,civil drones tended to be evaluated rather positively,while no such trend was evident for air taxis in the survey.Answers regarding the attitude towards air taxis ranged from very negative to very positive.46%of participants had a positive attitude towards air taxis,46%would be willing to use an air taxi within a rural area,and 46%would be willing to travel with it between a rural area and a big city.Furthermore,a virtual reality study on the wellbeing of passengers in an autonomous air taxi was conducted.30 participants experienced an airport shuttle flight in the city of Hamburg in a mixedreality air taxi simulator.The influences of a flight attendant on board and a rerouting of the flight on perceived wellbeing were assessed.The results show that the presence of a flight attendant had no statistically significant influence on the wellbeing of participants.16 out of 30 participants stated that an attendant on board is not necessary.Nevertheless,eight found it reasonable for the introduction phase and nine remarked an increase in per ceived safety due to the flight attendant.Furthermore,the results show that with an attendant on board,the rerouting scenario was rated better compared to the scenario without an additional crew member on board.With respect to information needs,the three most relevant pieces of information were travel time,changes of flight route due to obstacles or other traffic,and flight route.A second virtual reality study focused on the wellbeing of passersby when air taxis were simulated in the airspace.47 participants experienced civil drones flying above Braunschweig,as well as an air taxi landing from the perspective of a pedestrian walking through the city.8383519very positiverather positiverather negativevery negative80FF%Airport Center of a big cityResidential areas Center of a big cityWithin a big cityBetween two big citiesWithin a rural areaRural area Big cityAttitudes towards air taxisWillingness to use an air taxi18|Social AcceptanceACCESSIBILITYThis refers to the ability to quickly reach the departure vertidrome from the origin of a trip,and to reach the destination of a trip from the arrival vertidrome.Analyses have shown,that access and egress times to and from the vertidromes(as well as processing times to change modes of transport)strongly influence the attractiveness and,thus,the demand for UAM.Accessibility can be improved by locating the vertidromes closer to centres of high demand or by reducing travel time to the vertidromes.The placement of vertidromes is an optimisation task:a balance must be found between site requirements,costs and other issues,such as nuisance to neighbours from noise and visual pollution to avoid threatening social acceptance.ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY MOBILITYThe goal of environmentally friendly mobility is to maintain and ensure the mobility of people and goods without placing excessive burdens on people and the environment in terms of greenhouse gas emissions,air pollutants,noise,land use,wildlife,and resource consumption.Noise is perceived as a risk of UAM.This includes the noise generated by the vehicles during takeoff,landing,and flight.A smartphone app,called DroNoise,has been developed and trialled.This app makes it possible to measure and assess the noise and subjective annoyance levels of unmanned aerial vehicles.This app was tested during live drone flight demonstrations in Cochstedt in 2023.This app could serve as the basis for creating noise pollution maps.Based on such maps,it would be possible to adapt flight routes and profiles such that drone noise could be distributed as equally as possible among residents.Our flight tests have shown that the smartphone app can be a way of involving the public in the design processes for unmanned drone traffic.The study showed that well-being was at a higher level when fewer drones were visible and when they were flying at higher altitudes.Well-being was slightly reduced when drones or an air taxi were visible as compared to conventional traffic only.Further important factors for social acceptance will likely be safety and security,affordability,accessibility,how environmentally friendly the mode of transport is,and the noise levels it creates.SAFETY AND SECURITYConcerns about safety and security may be an initial barrier to the adoption of UAM.There are concerns that UAM users,other airspace users,and persons on the ground may be endangered.Regulations and standards need to be tailored towards the safe and secure implementation of UAM.AFFORDABILITYThere are concerns that UAM may not be affordable for lower and middleincome households.As part of the drive to increase social acceptance,UAM services should not be limited to the“wealthy few”.Since operating costs and ticket prices are closely linked,the challenge is to reduce operating costs.Failure to achieve significantly lower operating costs compared to helicopters will jeopardise the affordability and,thus,market acceptance.CONCLUSIONWithin the German population,the perception of air taxis is balanced between positive and negative ratings.Thus,crucial to the future of the potential UAM market are thoughtful approaches to the design of the vehicles and vertidromes,the configuration of the transport system,and integrating it into existing systems.To achieve a positive reception,it is necessary to consider the farreaching impacts of a new transport system on citizens.Social Acceptance|19DemonstrationWHAT IS USPACE?Uspace as defined by the European Commission is a set of new services relying on a high level of digitalisation and automation of functions and specific procedures,designed to provide safe,efficient and secure access to airspace for large numbers of unmanned aircraft,operating automatically and beyond visual line of sight.Thus,Uspace,also called UTM(Unmanned aircraft system Traffic Management),is the future of airspace integration for drones and air taxis in Europe.Uspace services are under development,but are not yet commercially available.For demonstration in the project HorizonUAM,a central Uspace cloud service was simulated through a local messaging server.VERTIDROME MANAGEMENT A prototypical vertidrome management tool was created to demonstrate the scheduling and sequencing of air taxi flights.The vertidrome manager is fully integrated within Uspace and receives realtime information on flight plans,including requests for start and landing and emergency notifications.Additional information coming from other Uspace services(e.g.weather information)can be accessed on request.The Uspace cloud services were simulated through a local messaging server using the protocol MQTT(Message Queuing Telemetry Transport).The integration was demonstrated in a scaled flight test environment with multicopters(15 kg)representing passengercarrying air taxis.THE POWER OF AUTOMATION The demonstrated vertidrome management tool relies on a human controller to manage incoming requests.Future developments envision a higher degree of automation on the vehicle side,but also on the controller side.In future research,the integration at existing airports and the interface to conventional air traffic management will be investigated as well.20|DemonstrationHamburgA 7010110010011010110010011010110010011010110010011HamburgErstel l t mi t MapO SMati c/O Ci tysMap am 26.Mrz 2024.Map styl e:Bl ossom styl e by Steffen KuehneD ata source:Kartendaten 2024 O penStreetMap.org und Mi tw i rkende(si ehe http:/osm.org/copyri ght)SCALING DOWN A HAMBURG USE CASE The vertidrome manager and its integration into a prototypical Uspace environment were successfully tested in live demonstrations conducted between May and July 2023 at the National Experimental Test Center for Unmanned Aircraft Systems located near Cochstedt,Germany.A model city on a scale of 1:4 was erected from shipping containers,and vertidrome landing pads were built on the ground.An airport shuttle usecase was selected for demonstration,similar to a scenario that previously had been evaluated in a virtual reality passenger study.The demonstration also included a scenario where a flight was rerouted to an alternative landing site due to a blocked landing pad at the destination vertidrome.Another aircraft detects a passenger on the landing pad,aided by a runtime monitored machine learning algorithm for the detection of persons in image data.Multisensor navigation algorithms were in use for navigating in urban canyons.The demonstrations successfully proved the prototypical vertidrome manager to be functional.VVVHCONCLUSIONA limited number of air taxis could be managed by conventional air traffic controllers.However,the use of Uspace for vertidrome management,as shown above,has the advantage of being scalable for highdensity air taxi operations.The advantage of Uspace is the high degree of digitalisation inherent in the system.VVHVertidrome Main StationVertidrome AirportHospitalGround ControlVertidrome AirportVertidrome Main StationVertidrome Binnenalster OpenStreetMap Demonstration|217Future PerspectivesThe DLR project HorizonUAM has contributed to two aspects of UAM research,the development of individual components as well as their harmonisation for use in an optimised overall system.Expertise on UAM vehicles,related infrastructure,operation of UAM services,and public acceptance of future urban air transport was drawn together.In particular,the complexity of Urban Air Mobility with its interdependencies has been addressed by the project.The results of HorizonUAM indicate that UAM could become technically feasible in the near future.However,the following key challenges need to be addressed before UAM can be widely implemented:Profitability:For their widespread adoption and acceptance by users,manufacturers and investors,it is essential to ensure that air taxi services are economically viable even with low ticket prices.The requirement,therefore,is to minimise direct and indirect operating costs of the UAM transportation system.Suitable business models need to evolve to enable UAM to appeal to more than a niche market.The evolving regulatory framework for UAM needs to be matured and harmonised internationally in order to ensure safety,security,and environmental sustainability,but also scalability in order to make UAM financially feasible.Complexity of the UAM system:Managing complexity and filling existing knowledge gaps to remove uncertainties is necessary to achieve a highly efficient UAM system.This results in a complicated distribution of responsibilities among UAM stakeholders including users,industry,governments,public institutions,regulators and communities.All of these stakeholders must work together to shape the transportation system of the future.In particular,the interactions of the individual UAM system components,its interdependencies and the effects on the feasibility of the overall transportation system need to be further investigated to develop an economically viable and scalable UAM system that maximises the benefits not only for the users,but for society in general.iS Perspectives7Social acceptance,particularly community acceptance:Acceptance may be one of the critical factors in UAM implementation in many societies.Appropriate measures will need to be taken to address the key concerns of noise,actual and perceived safety and security,high energy consumption,visual pollution and land use.In order to offer seamless transportation,the integration of UAM into existing transportation networks is essential and can improve the efficiency of the overall transportation system with benefits for users and society.It is of highest importance to keep the general public informed about urban air mobility and its implications.Communities have to be actively engaged in the design of a potential future transportation system to make it a success.Therefore,information based on scientific analysis,but tailored towards a nonscientific audience,should be provided by the UAM community.Reallife demonstrations are recommended to increase the familiarity with UAM in the general public.THIS PROJECT IS THE RESULT OF THE COLLABORATION OF THE 10 DLR INSTITUTES:DLR Institute of Flight Guidance(Coordinator)DLR Institute of Combustion Technology DLR Institute of Flight Systems DLR Institute of Air Transport DLR Institute of Communications and Navigation DLR Institute of Aerospace Medicine DLR Institute of System Architectures in Aeronautics DLR Institute of Atmospheric Physics DLR Institute of Maintenance,Repair and Overhaul National Experimental Test Center for Unmanned Aircraft SystemsTo find out more about HorizonUAM and its scientific publications,please visit HORIZONUAM.DLR.DEIn conclusion,it has been shown that UAM might complement existing transportation systems in the future.Ultimately,it is a matter of the constituent systems working together in a way that the overall system is both economically feasible and socially acceptable.DLR will continue to work on the idea of Urban Air Mobility.Future research will be extended by considering new multimodal and regional use cases.Thus,the initial urban scope will be extended to evolve from Urban Air Mobility to Advanced Air Mobility,and furthermore to Innovative Air Mobility,with the overall goal of integrating drone and air taxi services into existing transportation systems.Future Perspectives|23PUBLISHER:Deutsches Zentrum fr Luft-und Raumfahrt e.V.German Aerospace Center(DLR)ADDRESS:Linder Hhe,51147 Kln(Cologne)phone: 49 2203 6010 email:contactdlrDLR.dewww.dlr.de/enAll images are property of DLR(CCBY 3.0)unless otherwise stated.Cover image:DLRVersion:09/2024
2024-12-29
24页
5星级
Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook IATA Sustainability and Economics Q3 2024 2 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Table of contents Table of contents.2 Glossary.3 Route areas abbreviations.4 Table of charts.5 1.The business cycle.8 2.Aviation fuel.11 2.1.Conventional aviation fuel.11 2.2.Sustainable aviation fuel.11 3.Passenger and cargo traffic.13 3.1.Passenger traffic.13 3.2.Air connectivity.15 3.3.Cargo traffic.17 4.Regional performance.19 4.1.Africa.19 4.2.Americas.21 4.3.Asia Pacific.23 4.4.Europe.25 4.5.Middle East.27 3 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Glossary ACTK Available Cargo Tonne-Kilometers ASKs Available Seat-Kilometers ATJ Alcohol-to-Jet ATKs Available Tonne-Kilometers BBL Barrel BLF Breakeven Load Factor CLF Cargo Load Factor CORSIA carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international aviation CTK Cargo Tonne-Kilometers EBIT Earnings before interest and taxes FT Fischer-Tropsch GDP Gross Domestic Product HEFA-Hydro-processed Esters and Fatty Acids LF Load Factor MoM Month-on-month MoUs Memoranda of understanding OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries O-D Origin-Destination PLF Passenger Load Factor PMI Purchasing Managers Index PtL Power-to-Liquid PPP Purchasing power parity RPK Revenue Passenger-Kilometers RTK Revenue Tonne-Kilometers SA Seasonally adjusted SAF Sustainable Aviation Fuel QoQ Quarter-on-quarter USD United States Dollar YoY Year-on-year 4 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Route areas abbreviations AE Africa-Europe AF Africa-Far East AM Africa-Middle East CS Central America/Caribbean-South America EC Europe-Central America/Caribbean EF Europe-Far East EM Europe-Middle East EN Europe-North America ES Europe-South America FN Far East-North America FP Far East-Southwest Pacific MF Middle East-Far East MN Middle East-North America NC North America-Central America/Caribbean NS North America-South America PS North/South America-Southwest Pacific WC Within Central America WE Within Europe WF With Far East WS Within South America Notes:North America:Bermuda,Canada,St.Pierre and Miquelon,United States including Alaska and Hawaii,but excluding Puerto Rico and United States Virgin Islands Central America/Caribbean:Anguilla,Antigua and Barbuda,Aruba,Bahamas,Barbados,Belize,British Virgin Islands,Cayman Islands,Costa Rica,Cuba,Dominica,Dominican Republic,El Salvador,Granada,Guadeloupe,Guatemala,Haiti,Honduras,Jamaica,Martinique,Mexico,Monserrat,Netherlands Antilles,Nicaragua,Panama,Puerto Rico,St.Kitts-Nevis,Saint Lucia,Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,Trinidad&Tobago,Turks and Caicos Islands,United States Virgin Islands South America:Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Ecuador,French Guiana,Guyana,Paraguay,Peru,Suriname,Uruguay,Venezuela Europe:Albania,Andorra,Armenia,Austria,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Belgium,Bosnia Herzegovina,Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,Czech Republic,Denmark,Estonia,Faeroe Islands,Finland,France,Georgia,Germany,Greece,Greenland,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland(Republic of),Italy,Latvia,Liechtenstein,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Macedonia(former Republic of Yugoslavia),Malta,Moldova,Monaco,Netherlands,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Russian Federation,San Marino,Serbia and Montenegro,Slovakia,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Turkey,Ukraine,United Kingdom Middle East:Bahrain,Iran,Iraq,Israel,Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,Saudi Arabia,Syrian Arab Republic,United Arab Emirates,Yemen Northern Africa:Algeria,Egypt,Libya,Morocco,Sudan,Tunisia Southern Africa:Angola,Benin,Botswana,Burkina Faso,Burundi,Cameroon,Cape Verde,Central African Republic,Chad,Comoros,Congo,Cote dIvoire,Democratic Republic of the Congo,Djibouti,Eritrea,Equatorial Guinea,Ethiopia,Gabon,Gambia,Ghana,Guinea,Guinea-Bissau,Kenya,Lesotho,Liberia,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Mauritius,Mayotte,Mozambique,Namibia,Niger,Nigeria,Reunion,Rwanda,Sao Tome&Principe,Senegal,Seychelles,Sierra Leone,Somalia,South Africa,South Sudan,Swaziland,Tanzania,Togo,Uganda,Zambia,Zimbabwe Far East:Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,Brunei Darussalam,Cambodia,Peoples Republic of China,Hong Kong(SAR,China),India,Indonesia,Japan,Kazakhstan,Korea(Democratic Peoples Republic of),Korea(Republic of),Kyrgyzstan,Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,Macao(SAR,China),Malaysia,Maldives,Mongolia,Myanmar,Nepal,Pakistan,Philippines,Singapore,Sri Lanka,Chinese Taipei,Tajikistan,Thailand,Timor Leste,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,Vietnam Southwest Pacific:American Samoa,Australia,Cook Islands,Fiji,French Polynesia,Guam,Kiribati,Marshall Islands,Micronesia,Nauru,New Caledonia,New Zealand,Niue,Northern Mariana Islands,Palau,Papua New Guinea,Samoa,Solomon Islands,Tonga,Tuvalu,United States Minor Outlying Islands,Vanuatu,Wallis&Futuna Islands 5 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Table of charts Chart 1:Global GDP(right)and RPK(left),%YoY.9 Chart 2:Real GDP growth rate in major economies,%YoY.9 Chart 3:Job vacancy rates in major economies,%of labor force.9 Chart 4:Consumer price inflation in major economies,%YoY.9 Chart 5:Central Bank policy rates for the US,Euro area,UK,Switzerland,and Japan,%.9 Chart 6:General government deficit,%of GDP.9 Chart 7:Current account and international investment positions,%of global GDP.10 Chart 8:Crude oil(Brent),jet fuel,and crack spread,USD per barrel.12 Chart 9:Jet fuel crack spread(global jet fuel price minus dated brent),USD/barrel.12 Chart 10:Number of SAF offtake agreements,as of September 2024.12 Chart 11:Cumulative total renewable fuel capacity,million tons.12 Chart 12:Total renewable fuel production by technology by 2030,%of total capacity.12 Chart 13:Industry total RPK,billion.14 Chart 14:Passenger load factor by airline region of registration,%of ASK.14 Chart 15:Total RPK and ASK by airline region of registration,%YoY.14 Chart 16:Regional contribution to industry annual RPK growth.14 Chart 17:Domestic RPK by country market,%YoY.14 Chart 18:International RPK by airline region of registration,%YoY.14 Chart 19:IATA Global Air Connectivity Index.16 Chart 20:Global airport pairs,thousand.16 Chart 21:IATA Domestic Air Connectivity Index,selected countries,2014=100.16 Chart 22:IATA Interregional Air Connectivity Index.16 Chart 23:IATA Intraregional Air Connectivity Index,2014=100.16 Chart 24:Industry CTK,billion.18 Chart 25:Industry CTK,year-to-date,billion.18 Chart 26:International CTK by airline region of registration,%YoY.18 Chart 27:Industry ACTK,billion.18 6 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 28:Global air cargo yield(with surcharges),USD/kg(LHS),and industry cargo load factor,seasonally adjusted,%(RHS).18 Chart 29:International cargo load factor by major route area,%of ACTK.18 Chart 30:Africa,international air passenger traffic by route area,%YoY.20 Chart 31:Africa,air passenger load factor by route area,%of ASK.20 Chart 32:Africa,international air cargo traffic by route area,%YoY.20 Chart 33:Traffic from Africa and its top 10 destinations,%YoY.20 Chart 34:Africa,Q4 travels purchased during Q3 by market of destination,%YoY.20 Chart 35:Africa,aircraft deliveries,2015-2023(delivered),2024-2025(scheduled).20 Chart 36:Americas,international air passenger traffic growth by route area,%YoY.22 Chart 37:Americas,international air cargo traffic by route area,%YoY.22 Chart 38:Traffic from North America and its top 10 destinations,%YoY.22 Chart 39:Traffic from Latin America and its top 10 destinations,%YoY.22 Chart 40:Americas,Q4 travels purchased during Q3 by market of destination,%YoY.22 Chart 41:Americas,aircraft deliveries,2015-2023(delivered),2024-2025(scheduled).22 Chart 42:Asia Pacific,international air passenger traffic by route area,%YoY.24 Chart 43:Asia Pacific,international air cargo traffic by route area,%YoY.24 Chart 44:Traffic from Asia Pacific and its top 10 destinations,%YoY.24 Chart 45:Air passengers from China to other regions,Q3 each year,index.24 Chart 46:Asia Pacific,Q4 travels purchased during Q3 by market of destination,%YoY.24 Chart 47:Asia Pacific,aircraft deliveries,2015-2023(delivered),2024-2025(scheduled).24 Chart 48:Europe,international air passenger traffic by route area,%YoY.26 Chart 49:Europe,air passenger load factor by route area,%of ASK.26 Chart 50:Europe,international air cargo traffic by route area,%YoY.26 Chart 51:Traffic from Europe and its top 10 destinations,%YoY.26 Chart 52:Europe,Q4 travels purchased during Q3 by market of destination,%YoY.26 Chart 53:Europe,aircraft deliveries,2015-2023(delivered),2024-2025(scheduled).26 Chart 54:Middle East,international air passenger traffic by route area,%YoY.28 Chart 55:Middle East,air passenger load factor by route area,%of ASK.28 7 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 56:Middle East,international air cargo traffic by route area,%YoY.28 Chart 57:Traffic from the Middle East and its top 10 destinations,%YoY.28 Chart 58:Middle East,Q4 travels purchased during Q3 by market of destination,%YoY.28 Chart 59:Middle East,aircraft deliveries,2015-2023(delivered),2024-2025(scheduled).28 8 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 1.The business cycle The global business cycle is still favorable and supportive of the airline industry in general.Real GDP growth is showing unusual stability at likely 3.2%in each of the years 2023,2024,and 2025(Chart 1).The US economy advanced at the rather stellar pace of 2.8%annualized(=the quarterly evolution multiplied by four)in the third quarter of this year(Q3),which equates to 1.8%from the previous quarter(QoQ)and 2.7%from the same quarter in 2023(YoY).Chinas economy expanded by 0.9%QoQ and 4.6%YoY in Q3.With both industrial production and retail sales surprising on the upside,Chinas Q3 release belies most expectations of a slowing business cycle.However,the risks to the downside are still severe,as property investments continued to fall at the rather disconcerting rate of 10.1%YoY in the third quarter.Europes economy is growing more tepidly,with the eurozone expanding by 0.4%QoQ(0.3%in the European Union),and both gaining 0.9%on a YoY basis(Chart 2).Indias next GDP estimates will be available on 29 November for July September,the second quarter of Indias Fiscal Year 2024-25.In Q1(April June),Indias economic growth slowed to 6.7%YoY.This was below expectations,and a decline in government spending during the national elections impacted the number.Labor markets are still tight,although becoming less so.Most of the world enjoyed unemployment rates at or close to historic lows.Another measure of tightness in the labor market is the vacancy ratio,i.e.,the number of job openings available per working population(Chart 3).The ratio has come down from the highs in 2022 in Europe and in the US but still runs significantly above the trend.This points to upward pressure on wages and to pockets of labor shortages,both likely to impact the airline industry.Inflation is decelerating thanks to falling oil prices and to some falling goods prices.Service price inflation is slower to moderate.The all-items September(the latest available)Consumer Price Index(CPI)in the US gained 0.2%on the month and 2.4%YoY(Chart 4).Excluding food and energy,the index increased 0.3%from August and 3.3%YoY.The US Federal Reserve(Fed)has a dual mandate to stabilize prices and maximize employment.The Fed has clearly stated that it is currently more focused on the labor market.Euro area CPI accelerated to 2%in October 2024,YoY,up from 1.7%in September,the lowest level since April 2021.2%is also the European Central Banks target for inflation.Nevertheless,services inflation remains high at 3.9%YoY.Core inflation,excluding food and energy,was unchanged at 2.7%,the lowest since February 2022.The monthly gain in CPI was 0.3%,following a 0.1ll in September.In China,the economy is still rather deflationary.October CPI gained 0.3%YoY,a touch lower than the 0.4%in September.Producer prices are in outright deflation,falling 2.9%YoY in October.Chinas latest stimulus package of CNY 10 trillion(USD 1.4 trillion),which aims to ease local government hidden debt burdens instead of injecting money directly into the economy,has not impacted price evolutions at this stage.The global economy is exiting a period of contradictory policies when fiscal policy was loose and monetary policy tight,as inflation now allows for easing on the monetary side.Lower interest rates in the US are helpful to most countries and particularly to those with their currencies tied in some way to the US dollar.These countries will now find it easier to lower their interest rates with reduced concerns about their currencies value against the dollar(Chart 5).However,anticipations regarding the size and pace of monetary policy easing have been greatly exaggerated this year.Sticky core inflation will exert a limit on rate cuts,as will the large fiscal deficits that countries are still trailing since the covid-era stimulus(Chart 6).With Donald Trump winning the US Presidential election,trade will come to the fore,with the threat of tariffs now representing the greatest risk to the global business cycle.The US has run persistent trade and current account deficits almost without exception since the early 1980s.Hence,the US is uniquely vulnerable to higher tariffs on its imports.Imports subtracted 1.5 percentage points(ppt)from US GDP in Q3,with exports only adding 0.95 percentage points.This negative contribution of net trade could worsen with higher tariffs.On the other hand,oil-importing countries current accounts look set to improve thanks to the lower oil prices,while the oil exporters would see their surpluses reduced(Chart 7).This should lessen the risk of balance-of-payments crises in a number of vulnerable oil-importing developing economies.9 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 1:Global GDP(right)and RPK(left),%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics and the IMF.Chart 2:Real GDP growth rate in major economies,%YoY Source:IMF World Economic Outlook Chart 3:Job vacancy rates in major economies,%of labor force Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,calculated as job openings per labor force population,using data from Eurostat and US BLS.Chart 4:Consumer price inflation in major economies,%YoY Source:IMF World Economic Outlook Chart 5:Central Bank policy rates for the US,Euro area,UK,Switzerland,and Japan,%Source:Macrobond Chart 6:General government deficit,%of GDP Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,using data from IMF.-8-4048-80-40040801980198519901995200020052010201520202025Global RPK(LHS)Global GDP(RHS)234567820142015201620172018201920202021202220232024%USGermanySpainFranceSwitzerland 10 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 7:Current account and international investment positions,%of global GDP Source:IMF -3-2-1012320052010201520202025%European creditorsChinaJapanOil exportersUnited StatesEuropean debtorsOthersDiscrepancy 11 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 2.Aviation fuel 2.1.Conventional aviation fuel The global jet fuel price fell below USD 100 per barrel in Q3 2024,averaging USD 94 per barrel for the quarter(Chart 8).This decrease was helped by lower crude oil prices in an over-supplied market.Global petroleum consumption growth slowed to 0.9 million barrels per day in Q3 2024,down from 2 million barrels per day in 2022 and 2023.The average jet fuel crack spread for the quarter narrowed to USD 14 per barrel,bringing it within the 3-year(2017-2019)pre-pandemic range of USD 10 to 21 per barrel(Chart 9)for the first time since 2020.This signaled a return to pre-pandemic refinery margins as demand for diesel has fallen,freeing up capacity at the refinery for increased jet fuel production.2.2.Sustainable aviation fuel Sustainable Aviation Fuel(SAF)is essential for reaching aviations net zero carbon emissions target.The SAF ecosystem is continuously developing on both the supply and demand side.Over the past two years,the aviation industry has signed 96 SAF offtake agreements(Chart 10).Of these,70 are binding purchase commitments,and 26 are non-binding.As of September 2024,70 airlines,three aircraft manufacturers,and one airport publicly announced at least one SAF purchase agreement globally.In Q3 2024,68 agreements were signed with Hydro-processed Esters and Fatty Acids(HEFA)SAF standalone and co-processing facilities,accounting for 71%of all supply deals.Offtakes for E-fuel SAF from various Power-to-Liquid(PtL)producers trailed behind with 13 agreements(14%).The remaining deals refer to purchasing Alcohol-to-Jet(AtJ)and Syngas Fischer-Tropsch(FT)SAF,which comprised 8%and 7%,respectively.To maximize on all available opportunities,it is essential to diversify feedstocks and technologies beyond HEFA.We continue to track SAF facilities that have been announced globally and that are at different stages of advancement.This tracking is based on publicly announced renewable fuel projects until 2030,aiming to assess SAF availability on the ground.About 140 identified projects are progressing across 30 countries with a projected renewable fuel capacity of more than 50 Mt by 2030(Chart 11).However,the commercial advancement of these projects has been sluggish due to underdeveloped feedstock supply chains,lack of financing and policy guidance,and weak project economics.It is expected that about 80%of total global renewable fuel capacity by 2030,including SAF,will be based on the HEFA pathway(Chart 12).Post-2030 projects show more technological diversity in SAF production,but most are still at the demonstration or pilot stage.The success of SAF will depend on the commercial-scale deployment of diverse feedstocks,and the industry must leverage the potential of all globally available feedstock resources to satisfy the growth in demand.The global supply of SAF will also depend on production pathways,the ability of the biorefineries to optimize SAF production within the product mix,and the incentives provided to make the shift toward SAF.The American Society for Testing and Materials(ASTM)has approved new pathways,but introducing new pathways in a refinery can come at the expense of overall product yields.Policies can influence the refiners choice of product mix,and policy support is essential to encourage SAF production,as well as the diversification of technologies and of feedstock production all necessary for a successful energy transition.12 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 8:Crude oil(Brent),jet fuel,and crack spread,USD per barrel Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,using data from S&P Global Commodity Insight Chart 9:Jet fuel crack spread(global jet fuel price minus dated brent),USD/barrel Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,using data from S&P Global Commodity Insights Chart 10:Number of SAF offtake agreements,as of September 2024 Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics Chart 11:Cumulative total renewable fuel capacity,million tonne Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics Chart 12:Total renewable fuel production by technology by 2030,%of total capacity Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics 050100150200201920202021202220232024CrackJet fuel priceDated BrentUSD/bbl0204060JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecUSD/bbl3-yr range(2017-2019)20232024AtJ7.1%Co-Process9.5%HEFA78.2%Others0.3%PtL1.3%Syngas FT3.60406080100120012345678910JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJul202220232024Cumulative no.of agreementsNo.of agreementsAgreementsCumulative010203040506020202021202220232024202520262027202820292030MtHEFACo-ProcessAtJSyngas FTPtLOthers 13 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 3.Passenger and cargo traffic 3.1.Passenger traffic The third quarter is traditionally the peak season for air traffic,with all regions experiencing a significant increase in passengers.In Q3 2024,the industry-wide Revenue Passenger-Kilometer(RPK)grew by 7.8%YoY.This performance brought the industry to an all-time high for air passenger traffic,with total traffic up 4.0%compared to the same period in 2019(Chart 13).The passenger load factor(PLF),a key measure of airline efficiency,increased by 1.0 percentage points YoY,reaching an industry-wide average of 85.2%.This figure is 0.8 percentage points above the previous peak(Chart 14).Airlines in Asia Pacific and Africa saw load factors increase the most,rising 2.8 percentage points YoY.On the other hand,Latin American carriers load factors declined by 0.9 percentage points.This decrease was caused by the growth in seat capacity,measured in Available Seat-Kilometers(ASK),outpacing that in passenger demand in Q3(Chart 15).Europe and North America were the only regions where load factors remained below pre-pandemic levels,though relatively high compared to other regions.Delays in new aircraft deliveries,caused by supply chain issues and structural challenges among manufacturers,may lead to a shortfall in seat capacity growth compared to long-term averages.Nevertheless,passenger demand is expected to rise,and load factors could continue to increase in the near future.The Asia Pacific region continued to lead in terms of growth in RPK,with passenger traffic and seat capacity increasing by 12.6%and 8.9%YoY,respectively(Chart 15).This region accounted for over half of the industrys total RPK growth during the quarter(Chart 16).European airlines made the second-largest contribution to the industrys overall growth in RPK,with a 7.0%YoY rise.Industry-wide growth has decelerated since the start of the year because of the base effect provided by the solid performance in 2023,and growth rates are now more closely aligned with the long-term growth trend observed before the pandemic.Domestic traffic,which accounts for nearly 40%of total passenger flows,grew by 4.4%YoY in Q3,maintaining a pace similar to the previous quarter.Notably,PR China and India saw YoY increases in RPK of 8.6%and 6.4%,respectively(Chart 17).Industry-wide international RPK rose by 9.9%YoY,maintaining strong growth from a high base(Chart 18).Carriers in Asia Pacific and Latin America led with RPK growth of 19.2%and 13.1%YoY,respectively.While Latin American carriers have exceeded their pre-pandemic levels significantly,Asia Pacifics international RPK remain below 2019 levels.This shortfall is largely due to curtailed travel to and from China,along with ongoing US-China tensions,which continue to limit airline capacity.Meanwhile,growth in emerging markets drives steady industry expansion despite the operational challenges posed by the war in Ukraine and the escalating conflict in the Middle East.14 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 13:Industry total RPK,billion Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics Chart 14:Passenger load factor by airline region of registration,%of ASK Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics Chart 15:Total RPK and ASK by airline region of registration,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics Chart 16:Regional contribution to industry annual RPK growth Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics Chart 17:Domestic RPK by country market,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics Chart 18:International RPK by airline region of registration,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3201920202021202220232024ActualSeasonally AdjustedRPK,billion60708090IndustryAfricaAsia/PacificEuropeLatin America andCaribbeanMiddle EastNorth AmericaQ3-2019Q3-2023Q3-202481216IndustryAfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatinAmerica&CaribbeanMiddle EastNorthAmericaRPKASK040Q3Q2Q1Q4Q320242023AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaIndustry%-3036912IndustryAustraliaBrazilIndiaJapanUnitedStatesPR ChinaQ2-2024Q3-2024040IndustryAfricaEuropeMiddle EastNorthAmericaAsia PacificLatinAmerica&CaribbeanQ2-2024Q3-2024 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 3.2.Air connectivity IATAs Air Connectivity Index measures how well countries worldwide are interconnected via air transportation.The index is calculated using the seat capacity of direct flights to each destination at the airport level,weighted by the destinations size(measured by seat capacity handled).In Q3 2024,global domestic air connectivity grew by 6.3%YoY,while international air connectivity increased by 17.9%YoY(Chart 19).The number of airports connected by direct flights increased by 2.1%YoY in Q3 2024 to 25.6 thousand airport pairs globally.This growth was driven by a 5.2%YoY increase in international airport pairs,while domestic airport pairs decreased by 0.9%YoY(Chart 20).Domestic air connectivity grew unevenly across countries in Q3(Chart 21).The strongest performance was seen in China and India where connectivity grew by 12.5%and 10.7%YoY,respectively.The United States,Japan,and Australia saw more moderate increases of 4.1%,2.7%,and 1.7%YoY,respectively.At the other end of the spectrum,Brazils domestic air connectivity decreased by 5.4%YoY.Interregional connectivity,the index that measures flight connectivity between different regions,improved across the board(Chart 22).Strong growth occurred in Asia Pacific,North America,Europe,and Africa,increasing 18.2%,14.1%,12.9%,and 12.7%YoY,respectively.This is partially supported by increased travel to and from the Asia Pacific region.Notably,Europe and Asia Pacific maintain the highest levels of interregional air connectivity.Interregional connectivity also advanced for Latin America&the Caribbean and the Middle East,rising by 7.8%and 5.2%YoY,respectively.Considering international flights within the same region,intraregional air connectivity increased further in Q3 2024 across all regions(Chart 23).Intraregional connectivity in the Asia Pacific increased by 45.5%YoY,supported by a strong rebound in traffic to and from China.Latin America&Caribbeans intraregional connectivity also saw an impressive 34.3%increase YoY.Africa,Europe,the Middle East,and North America experienced more moderate but still significant growth of 14.3%,12.7%,8.9%,and 4.7%YoY,respectively.16 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 19:IATA Global Air Connectivity Index Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics Chart 20:Global airport pairs,thousand Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics Chart 21:IATA Domestic Air Connectivity Index,selected countries,2014=100 Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics Chart 22:IATA Interregional Air Connectivity Index Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics Chart 23:IATA Intraregional Air Connectivity Index,2014=100 Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics 050100150200250300Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q320152016201720182019202020212022202324DomesticInternationalIndex02468101214Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q320152016201720182019202020212022202324DomesticInternationalAirport Pairs,thousands050100150200250300Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q214 20152016201720182019202020212022202324AustraliaBrazilChinaIndiaJapanUnited StatesIndex0510152025Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q320152016201720182019202020212022202324AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatin America&CaribbeanMiddle EastNorth AmericaIndex020406080100120140160180Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q214 20152016201720182019202020212022202324AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatin America&CaribbeanMiddle EastNorth AmericaIndex 17 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 3.3.Cargo traffic The airline industry saw record third-quarter cargo volumes in 2024 and the second-highest level of quarterly cargo tonne-kilometers(CTK)ever,topped only during the pandemic in Q4 2021(Chart 24).These extraordinary traffic levels marked a 1.7%increase in CTK compared to Q2(after seasonal adjustment)and a powerful 11.0%annual surge.As such,Q3 2024 was the third straight quarter exhibiting double-digit annual growth,although the latest numbers signal a potential slowdown in the remarkable growth momentum of the preceding quarters.Strong air cargo demand was not just a feature of Q3 but of the full year,as evidenced by the record volumes in year-to-date(YTD)terms(Chart 25).The exceptional traffic volumes are helped by booming e-commerce demand in the US and Europe,and by continued disruptions in global maritime shipping,the latter of which radically improved air cargos competitiveness relative to sea transport.Even if growth continues to decelerate,the industry is poised for an incredibly strong peak season in 2024.The global surge in demand in Q3 continued to be driven by international routes,where CTK grew by an impressive 11.9%YoY.All regions supported this expansion to various extents(Chart 26).Airlines registered in Asia Pacific added 13.9%YoY to their international air cargo volume.These carriers alone accounted for 41%of the industry-wide expansion.Carriers from Latin America,the Middle East,and Europe also experienced double-digit annual surges in Q3 with 13.6%,13.3%,and 12.5%,respectively.Traffic growth by North American and African airlines stayed in the single digits,with 7.6%YoY and 4.2%YoY,in that order.Overall,growth slowed in Q3 compared to Q2 in all regions except Latin America,where the corresponding figure rose by 2.4 percentage points,up from 11.2%in Q2.Lagging all other regions,Africa saw the largest reduction in YoY growth in Q3,falling by 10.5 percentage points.The total number of available cargo tonne-kilometers(ACTK)reached record levels in Q3 2024,both overall and YTD(Chart 27).This extraordinary global level of capacity was reached although the pace of capacity expansion is slowing.Growth in ACTK pulled back to 6.7%YoY in Q3,a relatively modest figure in the recent historical context.Passenger belly-hold capacity continued to be the primary growth driver,with an annual increase of 10.8%YoY,while dedicated freighter capacity rose by 5.6%.However,the contribution of belly capacity to the expansion of international ACTK has been declining since Q1 2023.In Q3 2024,the global air cargo yield(with surcharges)rose by 3.0%QoQ and a very healthy 9.8%YoY,the first positive annual evolution since late 2022(Chart 28).Presently,e-commerce companies and shippers that shift from sea to air transport compete for capacity with the more traditional air cargo clientele,which supports yields.Meanwhile,the seasonally adjusted air cargo load factor(CLF)grew by 1.9 percentage points on average compared to Q3 2023.This reflects the third consecutive quarter with positive annual growth after a streak of negative YoY evolutions that started in Q3 2021.Strong demand has helped load factors recover from the post-pandemic influx of belly capacity.The highest load factors1 in Q3 2024 were seen on the Asia-Europe and North America-Asia trade lanes,with 67.5%and 61.4%,respectively(Chart 29).These two route areas also handle the largest air cargo volumes worldwide(measured in CTK)and have benefited from thriving e-commerce.However,among the major routes displayed in the chart,North America-Asia was the only one that experienced a lower load factor in Q3 2024 than the year before due to expanding freighter capacity.The Transatlantic route area the third largest in the world registered a comparatively modest average load factor of 38.8%in Q3.This is typical for the season,as the Europe-North America trade lane is marked by high passenger belly-hold capacity during the Northern Hemispheres summer months against the backdrop of retail cycles that peak during wintertime.1 Air cargo load factors are defined as the percentage of ACTK that was utilized,as indicated by CTK flown(CLF=CTK/ACTK).Cargo load factors are not comparable with passenger load factors,given the directional nature of cargo operations and the resulting underutilization of capacity on the backhaul leg of the journey.18 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 24:Industry CTK,billion Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics Chart 25:Industry CTK,year-to-date,billion Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics Chart 26:International CTK by airline region of registration,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics Chart 27:Industry ACTK,billion Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics Chart 28:Global air cargo yield(with surcharges),USD/kg(LHS),and industry cargo load factor,seasonally adjusted,%(RHS)Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics,IATA CargoIS Chart 29:International cargo load factor by major route area,%of ACTK Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data 404550556065707580Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q320172018201920202021202220232024BillionActualSeasonally adjusted050100150200250300Q1Q2Q3Q4Billion2022202320240%2%4%6%8%IndustryAsia PacificLatinAmericaMiddle EastEuropeNorthAmericaAfricaQ2 2024Q3 202490100110120130140150160Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q320172018201920202021202220232024Billion ActualSeasonally adjusted40BDFHPRTVX%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3201920202021202220232024Air cargo yield(LHS)CLF(RHS)USD/kg0Pp%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3201920202021202220232024%Asia-EuropeEurope-Middle EastEurope-North AmericaNorth America-AsiaIndustry averageMiddle East-AsiaWithin Asia 19 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 4.Regional performance 4.1.Africa African airlines achieved a 10.5%YoY increase in passenger traffic in Q3 2024,outperforming the industrys average growth rate by over two percentage points.The Africa-Europe route set a new record at 56.4 billion RPK for the quarter,looking at all airlines serving the region,underscoring the ongoing demand for intercontinental travel across Africas busiest air traffic corridor.The Africa-Asia route also reached unprecedented activity following a 29%YoY increase.Passenger traffic between Africa and the Middle East rose by a more modest 3%YoY,a slower pace than in the previous quarter(Chart 30).Seat capacity provided by African airlines expanded by 6.6%YoY,in line with the industrys average growth.The average PLF achieved by African airlines stood at 77.2%in Q3,an improvement from the previous quarter,yet lower than other carriers serving the region.Among all airlines making connections from Africa,the Africa-Europe route saw the highest average PLF at 85%,followed by Africa-Middle East at 81%,and Africa-Asia at 80%.All three corridors showed an increase in PLF compared to the prior quarter(Chart 31).Cargo traffic on the Africa-Asia route has grown consistently,more than tripling over the past decadeoutpacing all other trade lanes globally.Since 2020,this route has surpassed the Africa-Middle East route,becoming Africas second-largest trade lane in CTK,just behind Africa-Europe.This trade lane saw cargo volumes increase by 14%YoY among all airlines carrying cargo between Africa and Asia.Africa-Europe follows with a 12%YoY rise in volumes,while the Africa-Middle East route grew by 6%(Chart 32).Air cargo traffic carried by African airlines expanded by less than other airlines on these routes,at a modest 4.3%YoY.Passenger traffic from Africa is primarily directed toward the Middle East and Europe.Saudi Arabia,in particular,strengthened its position as the leading destination,seeing a 19%YoY increase in passengers from Africa in Q3(Chart 33).Most destinations,such as the US and UAE,saw single-digit YoY growth from Africa,while passengers from Africa to France and the UK declined slightly.China recorded a remarkable 43%YoY rise in African arrivals,the highest among Africas key destinations,supported by relaxed travel restrictions and growing business ties.Passenger volumes to African destinations are expected to rise in Q4,based on ticket purchase data from Q3(Chart 34).Morocco,Mauritius,and Ethiopia,in particular,anticipate over 10%YoY growth in incoming passenger numbers for the holiday season.Other high-traffic markets such as Egypt,South Africa,Kenya,and Nigeria also expect higher visitor numbers than last year.However,Tanzania is expected to see a 4%YoY decline,likely due to an exceptionally high base from 2023 when passenger numbers surged 27%YoY.In response to this rising demand,African airlines are expanding their fleets significantly.Plans include the delivery of 20 new aircraft in 2024,followed by an additional 40 in 2025,marking the highest number of scheduled deliveries since 2019(Chart 35).This fleet growth reflects optimism in sustained demand for both regional and international air travel.20 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 30:Africa,international air passenger traffic by route area,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Notes:AE=Africa and Europe;AF=Africa and Far East;AM=Africa and Middle East.Chart 31:Africa,air passenger load factor by route area,%of ASK Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Notes:AE=Africa and Europe;AF=Africa and Far East;AM=Africa and Middle East.Chart 32:Africa,international air cargo traffic by route area,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Notes:AE=Africa and Europe;AF=Africa and Far East;AM=Africa and Middle East.Chart 33:Traffic from Africa and its top 10 destinations,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from DDS.Chart 34:Africa,Q4 travels purchased during Q3 by market of destination,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from DDS.Chart 35:Africa,aircraft deliveries,2015-2023(delivered),2024-2025(scheduled)Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using Cirium 1 Percent of industry RPK in 2023 Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics.Note:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the carrier is registered;it should not be considered regional traffic.0102030405060AEAFAM%Q2 2024Q3 202468707274767880828486AEAFAM%Q2 2024Q3 20240510152025303540AEAFAM%Q2 2024Q3 2024-1001020304050%-6-4-2024681012140203040506020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Africa(Delivered)ScheduledNumber of commercial aircraftShare of total,%1RPKASKCTKACTKTOTAL MARKET1007.86.511.06.785.244.6 Africa2.110.56.64.311.877.238.7Q3 2024,%YoYPLFCLF 21 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 4.2.Americas Air passenger traffic carried by North American and Latin American airlines grew by 3.3%and 6.3%YoY,respectively,lower than the industry average growth rate measured in RPK.The strongest annual growth is seen in routes within South America,which increased by 30%,up 3 percentage points from the previous quarter(Chart 36).Except for this route,deceleration is observed across the board as seen in the rest of the world.The transatlantic route,the busiest international pathway serving the Americas,saw a modest 4%YoY growth,three percentage points lower than in Q2.On a brighter note,air passenger traffic on this route is already 5ove 2019 levels.The most significant growth compared to 2019 has been seen on the Middle East-North America route,which expanded by more than 30%during this period.In contrast,the transpacific route,the second largest corridor serving the Americas,remains 20low 2019 traffic levels despite a 17%YoY increase in Q3.International air cargo traffic grew by 5.5%and 15.3%YoY for North American and Latin American airlines,respectively.The largest annual growth is recorded within South America,with an impressive 37%expansion YoY.The transatlantic trade lane grew by 5%YoY,marking its highest air cargo volume since 2021.Meanwhile,the transpacific trade lane continued to be the busiest serving the Americas and it recorded a 9%increase YoY,boosted by surging e-commerce from Asian exporters(Chart 37).Europe,Latin America,and the Caribbean are typical destinations for North American travelers.The UK,as the main entry point to Europe,saw 7%growth compared to Q3 2023,while Spain and Italy achieved a 15%and 10%YoY increase,respectively.Latin American destinations also experienced growth,with Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic at 6%,and Mexico at 3%.However,nontraditional markets such as Japan and India were the fastest-growing destinations in Q3 2024,expanding by 17%and 16%YoY,respectively(Chart 38).The US,Latin Americas top travel destination,recorded a 7%YoY traffic increase from the region in Q3,and Canada rose by 6%(Chart 39).The connection between Latin America and Europe has also tightened in the past decade,resulting in eight of the top 10 destinations being European countries.Notably,passengers traveling from Latin America to Italy saw 19%YoY growth in Q3 2024,followed by a 13%increase in Spain.France and the UK received 6%more passengers from the region than a year before.On the other hand,the Netherlands experienced a 4%YoY drop in traffic,and Portugal was unchanged in the same quarter.Ticket bookings for travel in Q4 showed a positive short-term outlook for most countries in the region.In Latin America,Chile expects an impressive 28%increase in Q4 travel compared to the previous year,followed by Peru at 14%YoY(Chart 40).This positive trend can be attributed to these countries late recovery following the pandemic.The coming busy travel season in the Caribbean will also benefit Puerto Rico with 11%growth and the Dominican Republics expected 10%increase YoY.In North America,Canada can anticipate a notable 9%growth in incoming passengers in the coming season,while a more modest 4%YoY is expected for the US.Aircraft deliveries have faced delays and cancellations due to technical issues and production constraints,resulting in over 100 fewer aircraft deliveries scheduled in 2024 than in 2023(Chart 41).465 new aircraft are expected to be delivered in 2025,which would be a record number,though this is unlikely to materialize.Latin American airlines too are restocking their fleets to reach optimal capacity,and deliveries are scheduled to increase to 111 aircraft in 2025,with high uncertainty applying to this number as well.22 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 36:Americas,international air passenger traffic growth by route area,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Notes:CS=Central America/Caribbean and South America;EC=Europe and Central America/Caribbean;EN=Europe and North America;ES=Europe and South America;FN=Far East and North America;MN=Middle East and North America;NC=North America and Central America/Caribbean;NS=North America and South America;PS=North/South America and Southwest Pacific;WC=Within Central America;WS=Within South America.Chart 37:Americas,international air cargo traffic by route area,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Notes:CS=Central America/Caribbean and South America;EC=Europe and Central America/Caribbean;EN=Europe and North America;ES=Europe and South America;FN=Far East and North America;MN=Middle East and North America;NC=North America and Central America/Caribbean;NS=North America and South America;PS=North/South America and Southwest Pacific;WC=Within Central America;WS=Within South America.Chart 38:Traffic from North America and its top 10 destinations,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from DDS.Chart 39:Traffic from Latin America and its top 10 destinations,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from DDS.Chart 40:Americas,Q4 travels purchased during Q3 by market of destination,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from DDS.Chart 41:Americas,aircraft deliveries,2015-2023(delivered),2024-2025(scheduled)Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using Cirium 1 Percent of industry RPK in 2023 Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics.Note:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the carrier is registered;it should not be considered regional traffic.-505101520253035CSECENESFNMNNCNSPSWCWS%Q2Q3-50510152025303540CSECENESFNMNNCNSPSWCWS%Q2Q3024681012141618%-10-505101520%-100102030010015020025030035040045050020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025North America(Delivered)ScheduledLatin America(Delivered)ScheduledNumber of commercial aircraftShare of total,%1RPKASKCTKACTKTOTAL MARKET1007.86.511.06.785.244.6North America24.23.33.25.54.386.038.6Latin America5.56.37.415.38.284.535.5Q3 2024,%YoYPLFCLF 23 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 4.3.Asia Pacific Asia Pacific airlines passenger traffic grew by 12.6%YoY in Q3.This rate surpassed the industry average growth of 7.8%and was the highest among all regions.Momentum slowed slightly from Q2 across major international route areas following the tremendous post-pandemic rebound,reflecting growth from a higher base(Chart 42).Approximately a third of international traffic originating from Asia Pacific remains within the region.This traffic has reached 89%of 2019 levels after growing by 25%YoY in Q3.Likewise,the second largest route area,Asia-Europe,saw a 21%year-over-year growth,slowing down from 29%in Q2.Growth in passenger traffic between the Southwest Pacific and the Americas turned negative,dropping by eight percentage points as mainly US travelers stayed away.Air cargo traffic carried by Asia Pacific airlines grew by 13.8%in Q3,the highest among all regions,despite slowing down from the previous quarter but also growing from an elevated base(Chart 43).Strong exports from key markets such as China,Japan,Thailand,Malaysia,and Vietnam continued to support growth in CTK for airlines in the region,by 9%for the Asia-North America trade lane and by 16%for Asia-Europe.North America,Europe,and the Middle East remain important destinations for Asia Pacific travelers(Chart 44).The US and the UK,as top destinations,saw traffic from Asia Pacific grow 13%and 7%YoY,respectively.Traffic between Asia Pacific and Spain surged by a massive 33%YoY in Q3,propelling Spain to a top 10 market for the region.Traffic between Asia Pacific and other European markets such as Germany,France,Italy,and Trkiye all experienced growth of 14%or more,driven by strong travel demand from China,India,Japan,and Thailand.International air passenger traffic from China has yet to fully return to 2019 levels,though recovery continues across major destinations(Chart 45).Most international traffic from China stays within the Asia-Pacific region.This traffic grew by 55%YoY but was still 18low 2019 levels in Q3.The Europe-China route is also recovering and reached more than 80%of pre-pandemic figures.China-Middle East traffic rebounded strongly,reaching 95%of pre-pandemic volumes.The Africa-China route has shown the most robust rebound,with traffic up 37%YoY in Q3,surpassing 2019 levels by 4%.In contrast,traffic between China and North America lags significantly,hindered by political tensions and capacity constraints.Passenger volumes from China to North America stood at only 55%of 2019 levels in Q3,despite a 62%YoY increase.Travel demand is expected to remain strong heading into Q4(Chart 46),with growth foreseen in all key destinations.Tickets sold for flights to China in Q4 increased 25%YoY,bolstered by a more liberal visa regime in China,adding more European and Asian countries to its visa-free list.Thailands expanded visa-free entry program also supports strong travel demand,with tickets sold for flights to the country increasing 27%YoY for Q4.Travel demand for Japan remains robust,with a 17%increase in tickets sold,benefiting from the weak Japanese yen against many other currencies,and from social media successfully promoting Japans tourist attractions.Australia,India,and Korea will see single-digit growth in incoming passengers in the coming holiday season.The strong performance of the Asia-Pacific region is reflected in aircraft orders,with 614 commercial aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2025,up from 445 deliveries in 2024(Chart 47).It is,however,likely to see further delays in deliveries into 2026.24 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 42:Asia Pacific,international air passenger traffic by route area,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Notes:AF=Africa and Far East;EF=Europe and Far East;FN=Far East and North America;FP=Far East and Southwest Pacific;MF=Middle East and Far East;PS=North/South America and Southwest Pacific;WF=Within Far East.Chart 43:Asia Pacific,international air cargo traffic by route area,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Notes:AF=Africa and Far East;EF=Europe and Far East;FN=Far East and North America;FP=Far East and Southwest Pacific;MF=Middle East and Far East;PS=North/South America and Southwest Pacific;WF=Within Far East.Chart 44:Traffic from Asia Pacific and its top 10 destinations,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from DDS.Chart 45:Air passengers from China to other regions,Q3 each year,index Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from DDS.Chart 46:Asia Pacific,Q4 travels purchased during Q3 by market of destination,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from DDS.Chart 47:Asia Pacific,aircraft deliveries,2015-2023(delivered),2024-2025(scheduled)Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using Cirium 1 Percent of industry RPK in 2023 Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics.Note:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the carrier is registered;it should not be considered regional traffic.-100102030405060AFEFFNFPMFPSWF%Q2 2024Q3 20240510152025303540AFEFFNFPMFPSWF%Q2 2024Q3 2024-5051015202530350406080100120Asia PacificEuropeNorth America Middle EastAfricaLatin America201920202021202220232024Index,2019=1000510152025300020030040050060070080090020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Asia Pacific(Delivered)ScheduledNumber of commercial aircraftShare of total,%1RPKASKCTKACTKTOTAL MARKET1007.86.511.06.785.244.6Asia Pacific31.612.68.913.89.084.247.5Q3 2024,%YoYPLFCLF 25 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 4.4.Europe European airlines reported a 7%YoY increase in passenger traffic in Q3 2024 despite continued airspace closures in Russia and Ukraine that severely impacted operational efficiency.The largest route area for the region remains intra-European travel,reaching an all-time high of 337 billion RPK and growing 7%YoY.This demonstrates high connectivity and demand within the region.The Europe-North America corridor ranks second.On this route,RPK grew by 4%YoY,reaching new highs in air passenger traffic.The Europe-Asia route,despite leading in YoY growth with a 21%increase in Q3,ranks as the third-largest route in terms of overall traffic volume and remains 10low 2019 levels(Chart 48).European seat capacity expanded by 6.7%YoY,with the region achieving an impressive PLF of 87.6%-the highest among all regions.The Europe-Central America route recorded the top PLF at 91%,closely followed by Europe-South America and Europe-North America,both reaching 89%,underscoring strong demand across key segments(Chart 49).Flights within Europe also recorded high PLF at 88%.Notably,all route areas serving Europe saw higher PLF than the previous quarter,reflecting seasonal trends and strong demand across key segments.Air cargo traffic carried by European airlines increased by 12.4%YoY measured in CTK,1.4 percentage points higher than the industry average.In the meantime,cargo capacity provided by European airlines increased by 7.9%YoY,resulting in a CLF of 50.6%,the highest among all regions.The EuropeAsia trade lane remains the second largest in the world regarding cargo traffic volumes and achieved a CLF of 67%,the highest among all trade lanes.The fastest annual growth serving Europe is seen at the Europe-Middle East route,with an increase of 26%YoY,followed by Europe-Asia and Within-Europe,both grew by 16%YoY(Chart 50).The Europe-Africa route is the only trade lane serving the region where growth has actually accelerated over the past year,to a 12%annual growth rate in Q3.Top destinations for European travelers extend across North America,Latin America,the Middle East,and Asia.The US remains the top destination for European travelers,with traffic between Europe and the US rising by a solid 11%YoY(Chart 51).Asian destinations received the highest growth in passengers in Q3.Among them,traffic from Europe to China led the growth with a 56%YoY increase,followed by Japan at 29%,and India and Thailand both at 18%.The only decline was seen in travel to Israel,which dropped by over 20%due to the conflict in the region.European destinations are expected to see higher passenger volumes in Q4 than last year,based on Q3 ticket sales data.Key destinations such as UK and Southern Europe,including Spain and Italy,can anticipate YoY growth of 5-10%during the upcoming holiday season(Chart 52).Greece is set to lead with a 17%YoY increase in Q4,the highest in Europe.Conversely,Trkiye is the only destination expected to see a decline in passenger traffic,decreasing by 6%compared to a year before.European airlines continue to ramp up fleet expansion,with 328 aircraft deliveries planned for 2024 and an additional 403 scheduled for 2025(Chart 53),though much uncertainty surrounds actual deliveries.Nevertheless,a steady increase in deliveries since 2021 reflects confidence in sustained growth and the need to modernize fleets to support evolving demand across Europes network.26 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 48:Europe,international air passenger traffic by route area,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Note:AE=Africa and Europe;EC=Europe and Central America/Caribbean;EF=Europe and Far East;EM=Europe and Middle East;EN=Europe and North America;ES=Europe and South America;WE=Within Europe.Chart 49:Europe,air passenger load factor by route area,%of ASK Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Note:AE=Africa and Europe;EC=Europe and Central America/Caribbean;EF=Europe and Far East;EM=Europe and Middle East;EN=Europe and North America;ES=Europe and South America;WE=Within Europe.Chart 50:Europe,international air cargo traffic by route area,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Note:AE=Africa and Europe;EC=Europe and Central America/Caribbean;EF=Europe and Far East;EM=Europe and Middle East;EN=Europe and North America;ES=Europe and South America;WE=Within Europe.Chart 51:Traffic from Europe and its top 10 destinations,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from DDS.Chart 52:Europe,Q4 travels purchased during Q3 by market of destination,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from DDS.Chart 53:Europe,aircraft deliveries,2015-2023(delivered),2024-2025(scheduled)Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using Cirium.1 Percent of industry RPK in 2023 Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics.Note:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the carrier is registered;it should not be considered regional traffic.05101520253035AEECEFEMENESWE%Q2 2024Q3 202474767880828486889092AEECEFEMENESWE%Q2 2024Q3 202405101520253035AEECEFEMENESWE%Q2 2024Q3 2024-30-20-100102030405060%-10-505101520010015020025030035040045050020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Europe(Delivered)ScheduledNumber of commercial aircraftShare of total,%1RPKASKCTKACTKTOTAL MARKET1007.86.511.06.785.244.6Europe27.17.06.712.47.987.650.6Q3 2024,%YoYPLFCLF 27 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 4.5.Middle East Passenger traffic for Middle East airlines increased by 5.3%YoY in Q3 2024,measured by RPK.While this growth was positive,it was over two percentage points below the industry average and a six-percentage point drop from Q2.This deceleration is observed across all major routes from the region,while traffic largely surpassed 2019 levels this quarter.Routes between the Middle East and Asia,the regions largest passenger route,led with a 7%increase YoY in Q3,down from 13%in Q2.Following this,routes between the Middle East and North America grew by 5%YoY,while Middle East Europe and Middle East Africa routes saw more modest increases of 3%YoY each(Chart 54).Much of the deceleration can be attributed to the high base provided by the stellar 2023 for the region.Seat capacity among Middle East airlines rose 5.4%YoY,measured by ASK,trailing the global average by just over one percentage point and reflecting a slight slowdown from the previous quarter.Nonetheless,new record-high ASKs were recorded in two routes:Middle EastNorth America and Middle East Asia.Routes between the Middle East and North America achieved the highest PLF at 85.4%,followed by the Middle East-Europe at 83.2%and the Middle East-Africa at 81.4%(Chart 55).Middle East-Asia route,representing the regions largest route area,posted a relatively lower PLF of 77.3%in Q3 following seasonal dynamics.On average,PLF for Middle East airlines stood at 82.6%,over two percentage points below the industry average.Cargo traffic for Middle East carriers rose substantially by 13.2%YoY in Q3,outperforming the industry average.This growth in demand,coupled with a moderate 3.8%YoY increase in capacity measured in ACTK,raised the CLF to 46.1%,which is more than one percentage point above the global average.The Middle East-Asia trade lane is among the fastest growing corridors in the last decade,second only to the Africa-Asia trade lane,though with a market size five times as large.This route expanded by 15%YoY in Q3,benefiting from the rapid growth of e-commerce,which has driven significant demand for express and high-value shipments.Meanwhile,the Middle East-Europe route grew most in Q3 by 26%YoY.Other trade lanes connected to the Middle East also experienced over 5%YoY growth,reinforcing the regions role as a critical link in global supply chains(Chart 56).Passenger traffic from the Middle East to key destinations displayed varied patterns(Chart 57).Q3 traffic to Egypt and Thailand rose by over 10%YoY,followed by traffic to the UK,growing by 8%.Passenger numbers to Western Europe,including France and Germany,remained broadly unchanged with Q3 2023 levels.Passengers from the Middle East to South Asia countries saw diverging developments:travelers to India rose by 4%,while to Pakistan and Bangladesh dropped by 6%and 3%,respectively.Meanwhile,some key destinations recorded notable declines.Travel to Trkiye dropped by 28%YoY,and passenger traffic to the US decreased by 15%YoY.Looking forward to Q4,ticket sales data from Q3 suggests an uneven outlook for passenger arrivals across Middle Eastern destinations.Saudi Arabia and the UAE,major tourism hubs,are expected to increase 17%and 5%YoY,respectively,in Q4(Chart 58).Qatar,Bahrain,and Iraq will also likely see more than 10%YoY growth in passenger arrivals.Conversely,passenger arrivals in Israel,Jordan,and Lebanon are anticipated to decrease as ongoing regional conflicts deter tourism while also causing reduced air services.In response to growing demand,Middle Eastern airlines are actively expanding their fleets(Chart 59).By the end of 2024,they expect to add 42 new aircraft,with 108 new ones planned for 2025,marking the largest increase since 2018,though delays will likely persist into 2026.This fleet expansion reflects the airlines confidence in sustained demand growth across passenger and cargo segments.28 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook-Q3 2024 Chart 54:Middle East,international air passenger traffic by route area,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Notes:AM=Africa and Middle East;EM=Europe and Middle East;MF=Middle East and Far East;MN=Middle East and North America.Chart 55:Middle East,air passenger load factor by route area,%of ASK Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Note:AM=Africa and Middle East;EM=Europe and Middle East;MF=Middle East and Far East;MN=Middle East and North America.Chart 56:Middle East,international air cargo traffic by route area,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data.Note:AM=Africa and Middle East;EM=Europe and Middle East;MF=Middle East and Far East;MN=Middle East and North America.Chart 57:Traffic from the Middle East and its top 10 destinations,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from DDS.Chart 58:Middle East,Q4 travels purchased during Q3 by market of destination,%YoY Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from DDS.Chart 59:Middle East,aircraft deliveries,2015-2023(delivered),2024-2025(scheduled)Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using Cirium.1 Percent of industry RPK in 2023 Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics using data from IATA Information and Data-Monthly Statistics.Note:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the carrier is registered;it should not be considered regional traffic.0246810121416AMEMMFMN%Q2 2024Q3 20246870727476788082848688AMEMMFMN%Q2 2024Q3 2024-505101520253035AMEMMFMN%Q2 2024Q3 2024-35-30-25-20-15-10-5051015%-50-40-30-20-1001020040608010012014020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Middle East(Delivered)ScheduledNumber of commercial aircraftShare of total,%1RPKASKCTKACTKTOTAL MARKET1007.86.511.06.785.244.6Middle East9.45.35.413.23.882.646.1Q3 2024,%YoYPLFCLF Iata.org/economics economicsiata.org
2024-12-29
29页
5星级
Promoting the Utilization of Transport Big Data with SmartTransport Systems for Sustainable Transpor.
2024-12-29
61页
5星级
Greater China Logistics Market Q3 2024Greater China Logistics Market Q3 2024Greater China Logistics .
2024-12-29
27页
5星级
1-2 1.Community Guidebook and Toolkit A new era of aviation is emerging that promises to transform .
2024-12-29
23页
5星级
1 Eric Schiff by Chris Sherwood Abstract A broad overview of the advanced air mobility industry to support understanding by the public and relevant stakeholders.It may be useful prior to the upcoming certification and entry into service of advanced air mobility products.DEMYSTIFYING ADVANCED AIR MOBILITY(AAM)WHITE PAPER JULY 15,2024 V1.1 REVISED AUGUST 7,2024 2 i Table of contents Prologue.iii Chapter 1:Introduction to advanced air mobility.1 Why should I care about advanced air mobility?.1 Will advanced air mobility aircraft and air taxi services save people time?.3 Wont advanced air mobility aircraft be loud?.4 Will advanced air mobility aircraft benefit people like me?.5 If advanced air mobility aircraft are so great,why dont I know anything about them?.6 Will advanced air mobility aircraft be good for the environment and public health?.7 How safe are advanced air mobility aircraft?.12 Advanced air mobility aircraft certifications.12 Advanced air mobility pilot certifications.15 Certification considerations for non-commercial advanced air mobility aircraft.18 Chapter 2:Advanced air mobility ecosystem.19 Product.19 Component Suppliers.19 Infrastructure Providers.22 Charging.22 Facilities Providers.26 Labor.30 Operators.31 Commercial.34 Finance.34 Investors.34 Lessors.34 Insurance.34 Government.35 Certification Authorities and Regulators.35 Air Traffic Controllers.36 Other Government Agencies.36 Consumers.36 Chapter 3:Advanced air mobility passenger aircraft market.40 Chapter 4:Cargo market for advanced air mobility.59 Chapter 5:The military market for advanced air mobility.64 Chapter 6:Personal eVTOL market.69 Chapter 7:Public service market.75 Chapter 8:Innovations in control,design,and energy.80 Control.80 Economics.81 Operations.81 Safety.81 Design.82 eCTOL.83 ii eSTOL.84 eVTOL.85 Electric Propulsion System Elements.92 Batteries.93 Electric motors.95 Fans,propellers,or rotors.96 Energy.96 Chapter 9:Conclusion.99 Chapter 10:Supplemental Information.101 Websites of Relevant or Mentioned Organizations and Publications.102 Websites of Companies Mentioned.102 Glossary.105 About the Author.108 Acknowledgements.108 Note on white paper title.109 Disclaimer.109 iii Prologue During my nearly 30-year career in entertainment technology(semiconductors,including turnkey reference designs with both hardware and full software,and intellectual property licensing for immersive audio and video),Ive focused on product management and ecosystem partnerships.I was drawn to apply my skills in the entirely new(to me),highly disruptive advanced air mobility industry to help address climate change.I found the advanced air mobility industry,the Vertical Flight Societys Transformative Vertical Flight conference,and other members of the Vertical Flight Society.They share my passion-and have also selflessly shared their hard-earned knowledge.I have enjoyed learning and researching this industry as I have before with semiconductors and audio and video technology for a wide range of consumer products.My business background and extensive product management experience in technology provided me a unique perspective in assessing the advanced air mobility market.As a product manager,I solicited inputs from a broad group of internal and external stakeholders and applied my judgment to find the right balance between features,resources,risks,and schedules.I studied product-market fit,created products that delivered compelling experiences,and communicated value propositions to colleagues,customers,and partners around the globe.I collaborated closely with critical ecosystem partners.I collaborated with teams of account managers,application engineers,business owners,hardware and software engineers,program managers,and technical writers.I wrote thousands of pages of documentation.I worked closely with many teams to create and grow businesses based on these products.Ive applied these skills to understand some of the competitors,customers,partners,and stakeholders in the advanced air mobility industry.In highly complex and technical industries,industry participants are often highly risk-averse and highly interdependent for success.Success for the advanced air mobility industry requires deep collaboration among the various ecosystem participants and a great deal of public education.This white paper summarizes these challenges.I received helpful input from a range of subject matter experts and companies(see Acknowledgements).I loved the message in the film Field of Dreams that if you build it,they will come.This white paper was a passion project and I hope that others find it useful and that it supports the success of the advanced air mobility industry.1 Chapter 1:Introduction to advanced air mobility While flying cars are no longer in the distant future if you have$300,000 or so to spare,the same underlying technology can be applied to reach an average consumer through other forms of advanced air mobility(AAM)aircraft.The AAM Institute defines AAM as“the emerging aviation ecosystem that leverages revolutionary new aircraft and a broad array of innovative technologies to safely,quickly,affordably,and sustainably move people and goods among local destinations to connect communities underserved by existing modes of transportation.”1 This white paper describes the advanced air mobility industry,associated benefits,the overall ecosystem and its participants,market segments,use cases and manufacturers and the new technologies that advanced air mobility brings.Based on public statements from the advanced air mobility industry,service launches are starting this year with others following soon(2024 2026 for 1st group;2026-2030 for others).This white paper focuses on advanced air mobility in terms of fundamental new approaches compared with existing airplanes and helicopters in one or more areas including:Control(for example,autonomous,semi-autonomous flight and piloted)Design(for example,lift-plus-cruise,multicopter,and vectored thrust)Energy(for example,non-CO2 emitting power sources)This white paper is broad in scope rather than highly technical or comprehensive.See the resources referenced under Additional Information for further details.Why should I care about advanced air mobility?1)Advanced air mobility aircraft are coming to market relatively soon.For example,the EHang EH216-S aircraft has already received its Type Certificate,its Standard Airworthiness Certificate,and its Production Certificate,and its Air Operator Certificate for entities operating in Guandong and Heifei from the Civil Aviation Administration of China(CAAC).2,3 EHang claims it is now actively preparing for commercial passenger operations for the aerial sightseeing use case in China adhering to the conventional principle for the introduction of new aircraft of 1 https:/aaminstitute.org/mission 2 EHang Press Release,“EHang Secures Production Certificate from CAAC,Clearing Path for Mass Production of EH216-S Pilotless eVTOL Aircraft,”April 7,2024,See.3 EHang Press Release,“EHangs Pilotless eVTOL Air Operator Certificate Application Accepted by CAAC,July 22,2024.See.2 imposing prudent restrictions first and progressively lifting applicable restrictions(such as limitations on defining flight routes,scheduling,operational assurances for commercial operations of airliners,etc.).As EHang announced,it will gradually lift these operational limitations with the ultimate goal to realize comprehensive autonomous commercial operations across urban areas.4 Among other advanced air mobility aircraft manufacturers,Archer,BETA,Joby,Lilium,and Volocopter appear to be the most advanced in the certification process.These manufacturers are projecting to be type certified and enter into service in the range of 2024 to 2026.However,as advanced air mobility aircraft include significant technical innovations,and certification requirements are still new or being updated,delays relative to company certification targets are quite possible.Similarly,service launches involve a broad range of dependencies beyond aircraft airworthiness certification dates including operating and training certification,access to vertiports in suitable locations,permitting to build vertiports,manufacturing ramp-ups,creation of maintenance facilities,and pilot training,etc.2)The advanced air mobility aircraft ecosystem will generate jobs and provide investment opportunities as aircraft and associated companies enter the market.For reference,a Morgan Stanley report projects a$1 trillion total addressable market opportunity for 2040 growing to a$9 trillion in 20505.Another example that suggests the potential for this market is the order backlogs which some publicly traded,early advanced air mobility aircraft manufacturers have reported.Table 1:AAM aircraft order backlog for selected companies(as of Q1 2024 or Q4 CY23 based on latest reporting)6 Company Aircraft orders(firm and options)Order value(at list prices)Eve Air Mobility 2,850$14.5 billion Electra.aero 2,000$8.0 billion 4 EHang press release,“EHang Continues to Promote Operations and Commercial Deployment of EH216-S Passenger-Carrying Unmanned Aerial Vehicle System”,October 30,2023.See.5 Morgan Stanley,“eVTOL/Urban Air Mobility TAM Update:A Slow Take-Off,But Skys the Limit”,May 6,2021.See.6 Published information from ;www.electra.aero,;and www.vertical- and public filings on ;www.electra.aero/news,;www.https:/;and www.investor.vertical-.3 Vertical Aerospace 1,500$6.0 billion Lilium 780 Not announced Archer Aviation 700 $3.5 billion Will advanced air mobility aircraft and air taxi services save people time?Air taxi services using advanced air mobility aircraft are expected to enable significant time savings compared with ground transportation by avoiding roadway congestion and faster inherent speed of these aircraft(anywhere from 100 to 200 mph for a number of models and as high as 280 mph in some cases)7.As an added benefit,use of advanced air mobility aircraft can potentially mitigate the need for some additional investments in roadways.Depending on the local level of traffic,distance traveled,and time for any connecting ride shares and entering and exiting advanced air mobility aircraft,reductions in total travel time of 50 to 75%could be realized.Figure 1:Lilium examples of time savings in different markets8 7 Published information on company websites and public filings for companies mentioned in this white paper.8 Slide 11 of Lilium Equity Story v2.0 Investor Presentation Jan 4,2024.4 The Joby Aviation website provides an example for New York City showing a seven-minute Joby flight compared to a circuitous 49-minute car drive.9 Wont advanced air mobility aircraft be loud?In fact,advanced air mobility aircraft are quiet,and much quieter than helicopters.For example,advanced air mobility aircraft include design features related to their propellers(number,size and speed)that result in dramatically lower noise levels than a helicopter.An air mobility aircraft has the potential to produce as little as 1/100th of the noise of a helicopter.The noise level of an advanced air mobility aircraft during liftoff is approximately 60dB10(comparable to a conversation)and during hover of approximately 45dB11(less than the sound of a refrigerator).A helicopter generates approximately 100dB of peak take-off noise and approximately 78dB of noise at cruising altitude of 1,000 feet12.Joby Aviation has created some very clear videos on this topic13.Loudness is measured in Decibels(denoted dB)using a logarithmic scale so every 10dB increase represents a 10 x increase in sound energy(for example,40dB is 10 times as loud as 30dB).This image from AAAudioLab shows sound levels for a range of common activities where over 80dB is considered to be very loud.9 Published information from and public filings on .10 Published information on company websites and public filings for companies mentioned in this white paper 11 Published information on company websites and public filings for companies mentioned in this white paper 12 New Atlas,Loz Blain,NASA acoustic testing puts real numbers on Joby EVTOL noise signature”,May 10,2022.See.13 See here and here.5 Figure 2:AAA AudioLab Decibel Scale14 Will advanced air mobility aircraft benefit people like me?Advanced air mobility aircraft providers have discussed expected pricing after launches in the range of ride-sharing services from a cost per mile/kilometer perspective.This would position air taxi services for mass market adoption.However,as is typical with other technical innovations,it is expected that companies may charge premium prices in the initial 5-10 years of service so that they can recover their very large investments while they scale.The CEO of Joby Aviation,JoeBen Bevirt in a recent interview15 said“We want a price thats comparable to what you would pay for a taxi or Uber.”Given the broad adoption of ride-sharing services,this sets a clear expectation that travel involving advanced air mobility aircraft will be able to reach a mass market within a reasonable time from their launch(for example,within a decade,if not earlier).He continued“Were building vertiport infrastructure at JFK and LaGuardia and LAX to give that really fantastic customer experience of a tight integration between your Delta flight and your Joby flight.”It is important to ensure smooth integration of travel between advanced air 14 https:/ Axios,Shauneen Miranda,“Exclusive:This electric aircraft CEO wants you to fly for the price of an Uber”,March 19,2024 See.6 mobility aircraft and airline flights so this close planned coordination with Delta will further the development of a mass market for travel involving advanced air mobility aircraft.Advanced air mobility aircraft can also serve a variety of other important,non-passenger markets for instance,cargo,military,and public service missions(where faster response time can save lives).These other markets add to the important public benefits that advanced air mobility aircraft bring.If advanced air mobility aircraft are so great,why dont I know anything about them?It is not surprising that the public is not aware of advanced air mobility aircraft as,with the exception of the EHang EH216-S aircraft,aircraft are still in the certification process and associated services have not yet launched.One purpose of this white paper is to provide more information and understanding about and acceptance of the advanced air mobility industry.Recent studies suggest that awareness and understanding lead to acceptance.Beginning in October 2021,Maven conducted a 90-day study that investigated public awareness of advanced air mobility in Los Angeles and Ohio16.Their findings related to awareness of advanced air mobility indicate a need for more public education about advanced air mobility to describe the benefits which advanced air mobility may bring to passengers and communities,and to clarify the expected noise advanced air mobility aircraft produce:Approximately 45%of respondents“had never heard of this concept before”(“advanced air mobility”)and an additional approximately 30%of respondents had“heard of this concept before but knew very little about it”17 Advanced air mobility acceptance increased by 14 to 22 percentage points with additional information.18 “About 20%of survey respondents said they would never fly in an eVTOL.”19 Additional research on consumer willingness to travel on advanced air mobility aircraft found that“Approximately half of the respondents were willing to travel on AAM 16 Maven,Optimal Locations for Air Mobility Vertiports,January 2022.Page 6.See.17 Maven,Page 66.18 Maven,page 21.19 Maven page 23.7 aircraft,while one-third indicated they might be willing.”20 For more details,see the following article on this topic.Will advanced air mobility aircraft be good for the environment and public health?AAM aircraft can offer significant environmental and public health benefits,especially compared to hydrocarbon-based airplanes,automobiles,and helicopters.Overall,transportation is the second largest source of greenhouse gasses by industry(20.7%of total)after the power industry(38%of total)21.Fortunately,progress is being made to decarbonize both of these sectors,most prominently through electric vehicles,solar energy,and wind energy which will result in greenhouse gas emission declines.Within the transportation industry,aviation represents 11%of the total22 making decarbonizing aviation an especially important focus area for further progress in greenhouse gas emissions.20 Ison,D.C.(2023).Public Opinion Concerning the Siting of Vertiports.International Journal of Aviation,Aeronautics,and Aerospace,10(4).See DOI,Page 5.21 Source IEA Statista,2024.See.22 Source:IEA Statista,2022.See.8 Figure 3:CO2 emissions by transportation sector23 A recent New York Times article indicates that the environmental impact of aviation is more than its top-line percentage of global CO2 emissions:Air travel is responsible for 3 percent of global carbon emissions,and those emissions are growing faster than those of rail,cars and trucks,or ships.Finding a way to lower that number is one of the most difficult pieces of the energy 23 Source:IEA Statista,2022.See.9 transition,in part because the technology isnt quite there yet to provide a solution on the scale we need.Airplanes,Hiroko told me,also emit other pollution like nitrogen oxide and soot,and form contrails,all of which warm the planet further.Scientists estimate that the net warming effect of these may be up to three times as great as the warming caused by aviations carbon dioxide emissions alone.24 Fortunately,most advanced air mobility aircraft referenced in this white paper use either batteries or hydrogen fuel cells in addition to their batteries(referred to as hydrogen-electric)as their energy sources so they do not emit any greenhouse gasses during their operation.As advanced air mobility aircraft are deployed and displace travel by cars using internal combustion engines and traditional aircraft,greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced.In addition,these advanced air mobility aircraft do not generate other pollution including smog or other particulate matter during operations.Some of the advanced air mobility aircraft mentioned in this white paper are hybrid aircraft which might include electric batteries and motors along with a fossil fuel-based internal combustion or turbine engine in order to meet their critical missions.However,these hybrid aircraft still incorporate innovations in control and design that may make them more environmentally friendly than traditional aircraft,or that may make them more effective in their public service missions.For instance,in the case of a public service advanced air mobility aircraft for fire-fighting or air ambulance service the benefit of the supplemental energy source may outweigh the environmental benefits of a non-carbon emitting energy source.That is,more effective fire-fighting using a hybrid aircraft may enable fires to be contained more quickly thereby reducing carbon emissions from the fire that far offset the carbon emissions from the aircraft.Similarly,more effective urgent air ambulance care using a hybrid aircraft may enable more lives to be saved,which is prioritized over reducing carbon emissions.While displacing hydrocarbon-based travel can reduce risks to health associated with breathing this pollution,there are some other potential environmental impacts for electric advanced air mobility aircraft compared with those using hydrogen fuel cells.For electric or hydrogen fuel advanced air mobility aircraft,if the supporting electricity generation and distribution infrastructure used to charge these aircraft or create the hydrogen is renewable(for example,hydropower,solar or wind)then recharging or refueling electric conventional take off and landing aircraft(eCTOLs)and electric vertical 24 New York Times,Manuela Andreoni,“Making flying cleaner”,May 2,2024.See.10 take off and landing aircraft(eVTOLs)also does not emit greenhouse gasses.Conversely,if other electricity generation sources(for example,coal,natural gas,or oil)are used then those generation facilities generate greenhouse gas emissions.The International Energy Agency projects that renewable energy sources will become the largest source of global energy generation in 2025 overtaking coal and generating roughly one third of global electricity.25 Figure 4:Global Electricity Generation Sources26 Other IEA studies also project that renewables will grow from“just under 30%of electricity supply in 2020 to nearly 70%in 2025,while coal-fired generation steadily decreases.”27 25 International Energy Agency(“IEA”)“Net-Zero by 2050:A Roadmap For the Global Energy Sector”Updated October,2021,Page 46.(Used under CC By 4.0 License see https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0.)26 Ibid 27 Ibid 11 Figure 5:Global electricity generation by source28 In 2022,approximately 60%of U.S.and global electricity was generated using fossil fuels.29 However,the global trend in electricity generation is moving heavily toward renewables in new electric generation capacity.In the US approximately 86%of U.S.utility additional capacity in 2023(56.1GW)was either solar(52%),batteries(17%),wind(13%),or nuclear(4%)while all of U.S utility retired capacity in 2023(14.5GW)was carbon-based30.In addition,”The United States has set a goal to reach 100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035”31 Hydrogen fuel can be produced using a number of methods-including using renewable energy or natural gas.28 Ibid 29 New York Times,Nadja Popovich,“How Electricity Is Changing,Country by Country”,November 20,2023.See.30 U.S.Department of Energy(“DOE”),“FOTW#1304,August 21,2023:In 2023,Non-Fossil Fuel Sources Will Account for 86%of New Electric Utility Generation Capacity in the United States”.See.31 The White House,April 22,2021,“FACT SHEET:President Biden Sets 2030 Greenhouse Gas Pollution Reduction Target Aimed at Creating Good-Paying Union Jobs and Securing U.S.Leadership on Clean Energy Technologies”.See.12 Figure 6:Hydrogen production methods32 How safe are advanced air mobility aircraft?AAM aircraft designs provide enhanced safety in a number of areas.For instance,redundancies in batteries,motors,fans,propellers,and rotors enable AAM aircraft to operate safely even if there is a failure with a component of one of those electric propulsion subsystems.Electric propulsion systems refer to any energy source(battery electric,hybrid electric,or hydrogen fuel cell electric)which uses electric motors to transmit power to the propulsion system.Formal government certifications exist for commercial aircraft.The overall system of certifications governs the aircraft itself(covering type,production,and airworthiness),operating the aircraft(for instance,by an airline),and piloting the aircraft.These certifications are expected to achieve comparable safety levels as with other commercial aircraft.The certification portion of this white paper primarily focuses on commercial markets(for example,advanced air mobility aircraft for commercial use with passengers).Advanced air mobility aircraft certifications In general,the certification process for commercial aircraft by the U.S.Federal Aviation Administration(FAA)involves five broad stages:32 World Economic Forum,“Grey,blue,green why are there so many colours of hydrogen?”,July 27,2021.See.Note that there are other hydrogen color schemes which involve even greater complexity including the use of nuclear energy as an energy source for creating hydrogen fuel.13 Figure 7:Aircraft Certification Process Summary Stage 1(Certification Basis):An agreed set of airworthiness requirements to be met for the certification of the advanced air mobility aircraft.Stage 2(Means of Compliance):A design standard for the airworthiness requirements to be met for the advanced air mobility aircraft.Stage 3(Certification Plans):Approve plan to conduct certification testing for entire advanced air mobility aircraft.Stage 4(Testing&Analysis):Tests and analysis to confirm that certification plans have been met for the various systems of the advanced air mobility aircraft.Stage 5(Show&Verify):Flight tests to confirm overall performance of the advanced air mobility aircraft.With the outcome of success through these stages being the following aircraft certifications-listed below in their customary sequence:Type Certification:Confirmation by the certification authority that a specific aircraft and all of its component parts have been verified to be compliant with the regulatory certification Basis.Production Certificate:Authorization by certification authority to produce a specific aircraft for commercial use.Airworthiness Certificate:Authorization by certification authority for an aircraft to be operated in flight.Repair Certificate:Authorization by certification authority for an aircraft operator to perform specialized repair services on an aircraft.14 Once an aircraft has achieved these milestones,specific air service certifications are possible.The most relevant of these is currently Part 135 Operation which permits scheduled commuter and non-scheduled air-taxi(on demand)flights using the advanced air mobility aircraft effectively“Entry into Service”.Note that the term“Part 135 Operation”above is somewhat of a simplification related to commercial air service operations issued by the FAA,which will be the example regulator used in this section.The FAA actually grants a number of distinct operating licenses for different purposes and with different authorizations.For instance,large airlines typically operate under Part 121 licenses while regional airlines typically operate under Part 135 licenses.At this point,the operating certificate for eVTOL aircraft for hire is not yet determined but it is possible they may be governed under Part 135 licenses.This is suggested by the fact that Archer Aviation33 and Joby Aviation34 have both received Part 135 licenses to operate aircraft commercially from the FAA.However,it is also possible that some other categories of aircraft for smaller cargo operators,or corporate air operators may instead operate under Part 91 licenses,for instance,private or personal aircraft.The FAA also requires additional certifications that are pertinent for maintenance and repair and also for pilot training.For instance,Part 145 certificates are for maintaining and repairing aircraft as approved under type certification.Both Archer Aviation35 and Joby Aviation36 have received Part 145 certifications from the FAA.Part 60 certificates are for approved simulators to train pilots for certification.While the U.S.FAA is specifically referenced above,the same process broadly applies for other major regional certification authorities.A reasonable question is how commercial aircraft which are shipped in multiple regions handle certification by these various regulatory authorities.In general,a certification by one major regional certification authority serves as a reference for consideration by other regional certification authorities though each will take an independent determination of their own certifications.The U.S.FAA and the European EASA have recently tried to collaborate related to advanced air mobility-related certifications.Sergio Cecutta,partner of SMG Consulting and author of the AAM Reality Index has noted that collaboration between 33 Archer Aviation press release,“Archer Receives FAA Certification to Begin Operating Commercial Airline”,June 5,2024.See.34 Joby Aviation press release,“Joby Receives Part 135 Certification from the FAA”,March 26,2022.See.35 Archer Aviation press release,“Archer Receives Part 145 Certification From The Federal Aviation Administration”,February 8,2024.See.36 Joby Aviation press release,”Joby Receives Part 145 Maintenance Certificate from FAA”,February 8,2024.See.15 EASA and the FAA is looking less likely to be a common approach than an agreement for each to certify aircraft which have been certified by the other certification entity.37 On June 10,2024 both EASA and the FAA introduced updated guidance related to their plans for certification of eVTOL aircraft.38,39,40 In general,both agencies are now moving forward with their certification plans and some coordination has occurred between them.41 However,this process may be subject to changes due to:Large numbers of advanced air mobility aircraft which are already in the Type Certification process or expected to enter that process during the next 24 months.Significant changes that advanced air mobility aircraft represent versus existing airplanes and helicopters.Modification of Type Certification process given any recent product and program-related field issues.Advanced air mobility pilot certifications The complexity of completing pilot certification can be illustrated by comparing the number of flight hours needed for the certification.However,a number of supplemental requirements exist in some cases so any prospective pilot needs to review official certification documentation and consult with the authorized pilot trainer.Table 2:Aircraft pilot licensing certification summary42 Pilot License Category Total Flight Hours Comments Airline Transport 1500 hours Incl.250 hours in command Commercial 250 hours Incl.10 hours in command (Same for helicopters&fly for hire)37 Future of Flight Investor Podcast,Jaafar Asri,“Air Taxis:Discussion with Sergio Cecutta”,May 10,2024.See.38 Flying,Jack Daleo,“FAA,EASA Release New Certification Criteria for Air Taxis”,June 11,2024.See.39 EASA,“Special Condition for VTOL and Means of Compliance”,June 10,2024.See.40 FAA,“DRAFT Advisory Circular:Type Certification-Powered Lift”,June 10,2024.See.41 FAA,“FAA and EASA Pledge Strong Cooperation to Address Aviation Challenges of the Next Decade”,June 13,2024.See.42 Wikipedia.See.This table is intended to capture the FAA pilot license certifications but regional differences in pilot license certifications likely exist.16 Pilot License Category Total Flight Hours Comments Private 40 hours Incl.10 hours in command Recreational 30 hours Incl.3 hours in command Sport 20 hours Incl.5 hours in command Student None Prerequisite for other pilot licenses and limited to specific makes and models of aircraft Commercial eVTOL-related pilot requirements are not yet finalized by the FAA but those may be issued by the end of 202443.However,at this point the authors expectation is that any commercial passenger services involving advanced air mobility aircraft would require pilots who have been licensed as commercial pilots.By comparison,the Part 103“Ultralight Aircraft category does not require any pilot certification or approval because the FAA does not consider them to be“aircraft”and they have even more significant use restrictions.The FAAs proposed MOSAIC(Modernization of Special Airworthiness Certification)Light Sport Aircraft category once finalized will allow electric aircraft up to four seats to be operated with an LSA Pilot or Private Pilot License,but may not be used to carry commercial passengers,and other restrictions apply.In addition to being licensed by pilot category,pilots are also licensed by type of aircraft.43 Under Industry review with FAA rules expected to be finalized by the end of 2024.See.17 Table 3:Categories of aircraft pilots(per FAA44)Aircraft Pilot Category Classes Powered Lift None Rotorcraft Gyroplane Helicopter Airplane Single-engine land(ASEL)Multi-engine land(AMEL)Single-engine sea(ASES)Multi-engine sea(AMES)Glider None Lighter-than-air Airship Balloon Powered Parachute Parachute land Powered parachute sea Weight-shift-control Weight-shift-control land Weight-shift-control sea 44 Wikipedia.See.18 Certification considerations for non-commercial advanced air mobility aircraft Some segments of the advanced air mobility industry(for example,personal eVTOLs)involve AAM aircraft which are not permitted for commercial use.These non-commercial personal AAM aircraft have a different certification process.Some personal eVTOL manufacturers plan to sell personal eVTOLs as light sport aircraft with an electric propulsion system under the new MOSAIC regulations.Light sport aircraft can be approved by the Light Aircraft Manufacturing Association(LAMA),or another recognized organization,rather than by a government certification authority.Light sport aircraft involve significant restrictions on their flight to offset risks from these aircraft not being certified.The FAA recently closed their second round of comments from the industry on MOSAIC and is reviewing feedback.See the initial FAA proposal information and a summary of the status and feedback.Also for an excellent summary of the current status and a summary of feedback for various industry stakeholders like the General Aviation Manufacturers Association.19 Chapter 2:Advanced air mobility ecosystem Successfully developing and launching advanced air mobility aircraft requires a complex ecosystem of companies and government stakeholders.Figure 8:Advanced air mobility ecosystem Product There are two primary sub-categories of product companies:component suppliers and advanced air mobility aircraft developers.Component Suppliers Suppliers of critical components to advanced air mobility aircraft perform a fundamental role in maintaining a strict level of safety.These suppliers help ensure quality and safety,which makes it easier for aircraft to be certified.In addition,they share the large investments needed to develop,test,and launch new advanced air mobility aircraft.A number of advanced air mobility aircraft companies have partnered with established automotive and aerospace companies to help with manufacturing and investment.Automotive companies bring deep manufacturing expertise to Archer with Stellantis,Joby with Toyota,SkyDrive with Suzuki,and Supernal which is owned by Hyundai.The worlds largest aerospace companies are either owners or key partners for other 20 advanced air mobility aircraft companies,including Airbus,Bell,Boeing,Embraer,Leonardo and Lockheed.Component suppliers provide materials for airframe and wings,avionics and control systems,batteries,fuel cells,electric motors,and propellers Highly specialized materials are used for airframe and wings(for example,Hexcel and Toray make carbon fiber and composite engineered materials),which provide high strength at a lower weight than most metals.Weight is a critical parameter for aircraft including advanced air mobility aircraft,as higher weight either reduces payload,range,and speed or triggers a need for more battery capacity to offset thereby further adding to cost and weight.Avionics and critical flight control systems(for example,those made by Garmin,Honeywell,L3Harris,Parker Aerospace,Raytheon,Safran,and Thales)are widely used in already certificated aircraft.Utilizing these proven components reduces advanced air mobility aircraft development and certification risk and thereby accelerates time for those advanced air mobility aircraft to enter into service.Battery suppliers provide the core energy used to power electric advanced air mobility aircraft.Most advanced air mobility aircraft providers are using traditional chemistry lithium-ion batteries or more advanced variations.These traditional chemistry batteries use liquid electrolytes to store the batteries energy for transfer to the advanced air mobility aircraft.For instance,Archer45 and Vertical46 both use lithium-Ion batteries sourced from Molicel.By comparison,Lilium is using newer lithium batteries with silicon components developed by a company called Ionblox47.Solid state batteries are another emerging technology which shows great promise for advanced air mobility aircraft in the future once they scale to volume manufacturing and lower costs.Solid state batteries appear to offer many benefits for advanced air mobility aircraft including higher energy density,faster charging and discharging speed,greater longevity,and lower fire risks.Hybrid-electric battery suppliers like VerdeGo Aero develop hybrid-electric power plants for aviation.45 Published information from and public filings on .See 46 Vertical Aerospace website.See 47 The New Atlas,“The extraordinary batteries Lilium will use for its odd EVTOL approach”,February 13,2023.See 21 Hydrogen fuel cells produce electricity in an electrochemical cell using hydrogen which is stored in tanks as an input.Some hydrogen fuel cell suppliers for advanced air mobility aircraft include:48 o Doosan Mobility Innovation(South Korea)o H3 Dynamics(Singapore)o Intelligent Energy Limited(UK)o ZeroAvia Inc.(US)For instance,ZeroAvia is developing hydrogen-electric powertrains and shows a roadmap on their website for the following49:o ZA600:“600kW hydrogen-electric powertrain for 10-20 seat regional turboprops by 2025”o ZA2000:“2-5MW modular hydrogen-electric powertrain for 40-80 seat regional turboprops by 2027”o ZA2000 RJ:“5MW hydrogen-electric powertrain for up to 90 seat regional jets by 2029”Can ZeroAvia successfully develop and deploy their hydrogen-electric powertrains in regional commercial aircraft which are certified and enter into service in roughly these timeframes?If they succeed,those aircraft can progressively displace existing fossil fuel-based regional aircraft and have a larger impact on greenhouse gas emissions from aviation.Electric motors sometimes referred to as electric engines or electric propulsion units(EPUs)translate the energy from batteries,generators or hydrogen fuel cells to the kinetic energy which drives the rotors or propellers.Electric motors which deliver more power to weight(more kW/kg)increase the overall throughput of the electric propulsion system thereby resulting in more power when needed or better overall energy delivery which increases payload,range,and speed.Alternatively,the same amount of power can be generated with a lower weight motor.For instance,Lilium has stated they achieved 100kW from a 4kg motor(so 25kW/kg)50,while Archer has claimed to achieve a higher output of 125kW but using heavier 25kg motors(so 5kW/kg)51.Advanced air mobility aircraft electric motor suppliers include Denso,H3X,Honeywell,mMagniXx,and 48 Marketsandmarkets,“Aircraft Fuel Cell Companies Zero Avia(US)and Intelligent Energy(UK)are the key suppliers”.See 49 ZeroAvia Website.See.50 Lilium Press Release,“Lilium Gears Up for Production of the Lilium Jets Revolutionary Electric Propulsion Units”,Feb 26,2024.See 51 Aviation International News,Hanneke Weitering,“Archer Details Motor and Battery Design for the Midnight eVTOL Air Taxi“,November 18,2022.See 22 Rolls-Royce.For instance,Denso and Honeywell have announced they are jointly developing e-motors for electric aircraft and Lilium has announced it will use this electric motor in the Lilium Jet.52 In the future,electric motors using superconductors may provide a significant boost to the electric propulsion system.Propellers,fans and rotors may be manufactured by the advanced air mobility aircraft providers,or they may be provided by traditional suppliers.Infrastructure Providers There are three primary sub-categories of infrastructure providers:charging,facilities and maintenance.Charging The advanced air mobility industry currently offers three primary charging solutions:SAE International ARP6968(based on the Chinese GB/T automotive connector),Combined Charging System(CCS)and Global Electric Aviation Charging System(GEACS).However,other charging solutions like the proposed SAE AIR7357 based on the in-work megawatt charging system(MCS)standard for heavy-duty electric buses and trucks are also possible options for use with advanced air mobility aircraft-in particular to charge those vehicles(aircraft and commercial trucks which have larger payload capacity and larger batteries).For instance,Sora plans to adopt megawatt level charging solutions,such as MCS or a derivative like SAE AIR7357,for the S-1 eVTOL bus53 and Joby has developed its own megawatt-level charging solution,GEACS(see below).CCS CCS is a standardized solution which has been used for EV charging stations;CCS1 is used in North America,while the incompatible CCS2 is used in the European Union.This solution has been endorsed by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association(GAMA)for use in the advanced air mobility industry,at least for the first generation of electric aircraft54.The solution is supported by the following companies as of the publication date of this white paper:Archer Autoflight 52 Denso,Honeywell,Lilium Press Release,“DENSO,Honeywell Co-Develop E-Motor For Liliums All-Electric Jet”,May 24,2022.See.53 Sora Aviation,direct communications,June 5,2024.54 General Aviation Manufacturers Association(GAMA),“Interoperability of Electric Charging Infrastructure”,2023.See.23 BETA55 Embraer Eve Eviation Lilium56 Overair Pipistrel Skyports Textron Volocopter Wisk Additionally,AIR has confirmed that the AIR AIR ONE Personal eVTOL will also support CCS or equivalent charging.Benefits of a CCS charging solution include interoperability,broad adoption,and functional separation.Interoperability:A CCS charger can also charge ground electric vehicles parked at the same locations.Broad adoption:The broad number of advanced air mobility partners which have adopted CCS make it likely to be the de facto solution offered by charging and facilities providers and may enable lower costs through greater economies of scale.Functional separation:Battery charging can be separated from other systems like battery thermal management and cabin air.This may reduce some cost for the charging-only device that can be used by charging and facilities providers for either EVs or advanced air mobility aircraft.For instance,BETA will provide three independent ground support systems:a CCS1 charger cube,a battery thermal management system,and a cabin air cube.57 55 In addition,BETA manufactures and sells two charging solutions:BETAs Charge Cube which is UL Certified and BETAs Mini Cube which both support CCS1.For details,see.56 Lilium press release,“Lilium partners with Star Charge to develop best-in-class charging system for eVTOL operations”,February 20,2024.See.57 Image courtesy of BETA Technologies.24 Figure 9:A BETA CCS1 charger cube Figure 10 BETAs modular approach58 58 Image courtesy of BETA Technologies.25 GEACS GEACS is a solution developed by Joby to be optimized for use with electric aircraft.It combines one cable with electric charging(two channels),cooling and communications and is available for licensing by other advanced air mobility industry participants.This design may offer some additional benefits such as a more compact infrastructure for advanced air mobility aircraft and facilities providers who only provide service for a single landing and take-off.Another advantage of GEACS vs CCS1 is the higher charging capability as summarized below.Table 4:CCS1 vs GEACS Charging Capability59 CCS1 GEACS DC Voltage(V)Up to 1000 150 to 1000 Current(A)350 Up to 600(300 per channel)Joby provides more information on the GEACS solution including its key inputs and outputs on its website60.GEACS is essential for Joby S4 advanced air mobility aircraft flight,and Joby is expected to deploy it in conjunction with its Facilities Providers(for example,Atlantic Aviation and US Air Forces Edwards Air Force Base).61 GEACS was announced to the public on November 7,2023 but as of the publishing date,no other AAM aircraft manufacturers have publicly stated that they have adopted it.North American Charging Standard(NACS)and other solutions:This solution was originally created by Tesla for Tesla EVs and the Tesla Supercharger Network.It has since become formally standardized as SAE J3400 with broad adoption among EVs,residential chargers,and commercial EV chargers for the North American market.One benefit of adopting this solution for advanced air mobility aircraft is leveraging the broad range of NACS chargers used for EVs.For instance,Personal eVTOLs and public service eVTOLs may be well-served by the relative ubiquity of NACS charging infrastructure.It is possible that some companies,especially for Personal eVTOLs and public service eVTOLs,may design their advanced air mobility aircraft to be able to utilize NACS infrastructure for their charging.59 Electric VTOL News,Mike Hirschberg,“Competing Standards”,December 18,2023.See.Note CCS references are for BETA Charge Cube as per BETA Research website,See.60 Published information from and public filings on .See 61 Published information from and public filings on .see links embedded in text 26 AS6968 is a SAE International charging standard that other companies are considering.Electro Aero in Australia have shipped numerous portable chargers worldwide that have the AS6968,GB/T and CCS charging connectors.Dr.Carl Dietrich,Jump Aero CEO,noted that Jump Aero expects to use the SAE charging standard AS6968 as Jump Aero feels it is better suited for public service aircraft and they do not expect to be flying into the same locations as eVTOL air taxis.As a result,Jump Aero doesnt see this incompatibility as a problem for our business.62 As mentioned above,MCS is a standard being developed for heavy duty electric trucks and buses.The SAE AIR7357 standard is exploring leveraging the MCS coupler and this may be used for some advanced air mobility aircraft models.For instance,Sora Aviation plans to adopt for its Sora S-1 eVTOL bus.63,64 Jetson provided the following response related to the charging approach for their Jetson ONE aircraft:“Jetson has removable batteries,which you can charge during two hours at home using any standard 110V outlet.”65 Nalwa Aero provided the following response related to their charging solution:“Nalwa Aero is currently evaluating various charging standards,including CCS and GEACS,to ensure compatibility and interoperability with the global eVTOL charging infrastructure.The company is committed to aligning with a standard that promotes efficiency,safety,and standardization within the AAM industry.Nalwa Aero recognizes the importance of adopting the most widely accepted standard in the market to ensure seamless integration”66 Facilities Providers Advanced air mobility aircraft require facilities(often leased from airports or other locations)provided by fixed base operators(FBOs)from which to take off and land as well as re-charge(or refuel in the case of Hybrid-Electric or Hydrogen Fuel Cell advanced air mobility aircraft).Depending on the aircraft design and circumstances involved,this might occur at any of the following:Helicopter heliports Vertiports Emergency use locations 62 Jump Aero,direct communications,March 11,2024.63 Sora Aviation,direct communications,June 5,2024.64 eVTOL News,Mike Hirschberg,“Competing Standards”,December 18,2023.See.65 Jetson,direct communications,May 1,2024.66 Nalwa Aero,direct communications,April 15,2024.27 Fixed base operators or infrastructure companies which have announced partnerships with a variety of advanced air mobility aircraft companies for vertiports include Atlantic Aviation,Falcon Aviation,Ferrovial,Reef,Signature Aviation,and Skyports.Other fixed base operators include Jet Aviation,Jetex,Swissport,and Universal Aviation.Table 5:Selected fixed base operators67 Company Headquarters Count Geographic Coverage Atlantic Aviation U.S.A.100 U.S.Falcon Aviation U.A.E.9 Middle East Ferrovial Spain 6 U.K.Groupe ADP France 23 Europe and Middle East Jet Aviation Switzerland 11=U.S.Jetex U.A.E.45 Asia,Europe,Latin America,Middle East Luxaviation Group(ExecuJet Parent)Belgium 141 Africa,Asia Pacific,Europe,Latin America,Middle East Signature Aviation U.S.A.200 Most continents Skyports U.K.1 London68 Swissport Switzerland 285 Most continents Universal Aviation U.S.A.50 Most continents Many of these companies have made announcements with leading advanced air mobility aircraft companies for specific locations.67 Published information on company websites and public filings for companies in Table 68 Published information on Skyports websites and public filings indicate they also have developments ongoing in the following sites which are not yet commercially deployed:Dubai(U.A.E.);Marina,California(U.S.A.);Paris,France(E.U),28 Table 6:Selected partnerships between fixed base operators and advanced air mobility aircraft companies Fixed Base Operator Announced Advanced Air Mobility Aircraft Partner Announced Partnership Location(s)Atlantic Aviation Archer Aviation69 Various-see press releases BETA Technologies70 Joby Aviation71 Lilium72 Falcon Aviation Archer Aviation73 U.A.E.(both Abu Dhabi&Dubai)Group ADP Lilium74 France,India,Saudia Arabia,and Turkey Luxaviation Group(ExecuJet Parent)Lilium75“Key markets across Europe initially,with further sites in the Middle East planned.”76(see previous footnote)Signature Aviation Archer Aviation Los Angeles,New York,San Francisco Bay Area and 69 Press release on Atlantic Aviation public website.See here.70 Press release on Atlantic Aviation public website.See here.71 Press release on Atlantic Aviation public website.See here.72 Press release on Atlantic Aviation public website.See here.73 Falcon Aviation Press Release,“ARCHER AVIATION AND FALCON AVIATION ARE TO JOINTLY DEVELOP A VERTIPORT NETWORK IN DUBAI AND ABU DHABI“,March 12,2024.See.74 Group ADP and Lilium Joint Press Release,“Lilium partners with leading global airport operator Groupe ADP to expand infrastructure network for the Lilium Jet”,July 24,2024.See.75 Lilium Press Release,“Lilium and Luxaviation Take Partnership to Next Phase Focused on Operations and Ground Infrastructure”,May 29,2024.See.76 Lilium Press Release,“Lilium and Luxaviation Take Partnership to Next Phase Focused on Operations and Ground Infrastructure”,May 29,2024.See.29 Texas77 BETA Technologies U.S.East Coast78 Skyports Joby Aviation,U.A.E.79 Vertical Aerospace U.K.80 Volocopter Paris81 Wisk Aero South East Queensland,Australia82 Beyond the partnerships mentioned in the table shown above,VPorts is also targeting to deploy a large network of vertiports(1,500 across five continents by 2045)83.Another interesting company,though not formally a fixed base operator today,is Reef Technologies,which owns over 4,800 parking garages in North America.Reef Technologies is exploring creating vertiports on some of their rooftop locations.Reef has announced collaborations with both Archer Aviation(initially focused on Los Angeles and Miami markets)84 and Joby Aviation(initially focused on Los Angeles,77 Archer Aviation Press Release,“Archer Announces Landmark Infrastructure Deal With Signature Aviation;Gains Access To Largest Network Of Private Aviation Terminals In The World”,June 17,2024.See.78 Signature Aviation Press Release,“Signature Aviation Partners with Beta Technologies to Install Electric Chargers“,March 7,2024.See.79 Skyports Infrastructure Press Release,“Skyports,RTA and Joby to launch air taxi service in Dubai”,February 11,2024.See.80 Skyports Infrastructure Press Release,“Skyports and Bicester Motion unveil plans for UKs first vertiport testbed for air taxi industry“,March 5,2024.See.81 Skyports Infrastructure Press Release,“Mobility testing inaugurated in Paris,November 10,2022.See.82 Skyports and Wisk Aero Joint Press Release,“Wisk and Skyports Expand Partnership to Bring Wisks Autonomous Generation 6 Aircraft to South East Queensland,Australia”,July 22,2024.See.83 Vports company website 84 Archer Press Release,“Archer And REEF Team Up To Tackle Urban Congestion With Vertiports And Urban Air Mobility Networks“,August 24,2021.See.30 Miami,New York City,and San Francisco Bay area markets)85 which are expected to utilize some of these locations as vertiports.In addition to charging and fueling,some larger facilities may also support advanced air mobility aircraft maintenance,public restrooms,along with public WiFi and charging for electronic devices.Access to convenient,ubiquitous facilities providers is a critical enabler to the success of the broader advanced air mobility industry.For example,various studies mention the importance of building vertiports close to homes:“To be considered a practical alternative to other forms of transportation,most respondents would like vertiports to be located within 20 minutes of their homes,although Urbanites expressed willingness to spend longer(average 27 minutes)getting to one.”86 “Respondents stated that they want a location that is convenient to their home,perhaps within 20 minutes,yet not in their neighborhood or near schools or parks.”87 Labor Labor in this industry broadly falls into two key categories:pilots and maintenance.All advanced air mobility markets will require trained pilots and the advanced air mobility industry will need to take measures to substantially increase the number of suitably trained pilots.Semi-autonomous advanced air mobility aircraft will still require pilots.Only fully autonomous advanced air mobility aircraft will not require pilots onboard,though operators on the ground may remotely support multiple simultaneous flights.Given that the number of pilots needed in the future as advanced air mobility aircraft broadly enter the market may represent a very significant increase,pilots are a critical resource for the growth of the advanced air mobility market.Conversely,without sufficient pilot training and capacity,advanced air mobility market growth may be significantly limited.Some personal-use eVTOL aircraft are designed to be flown without a pilots license(under FAA Part 103 Ultralight category)and are subject to some limits on flight.As a 85 Joby Press Release,“Joby Aviation Announces Infrastructure Partnership With Largest Mobility Hub Operator in North America“,June 2,2021.See.86 Maven,page 11 87 Ison,D.C.,Page 6.31 result,they are likely to involve less training than other aircraft markets which require formal pilots licenses with strict certification requirements.Advanced air mobility aircraft require periodic maintenance so advanced air mobility aircraft providers,and service providers will need to ensure there are locations where maintenance can be performed efficiently and safely.It is also important that the advanced air mobility industry hires and trains sufficient maintenance staff to support its growth.While some of these will be at advanced air mobility aircraft provider facilities,in some cases,for convenience,this may be co-hosted with facilities providers.Operators Broadly speaking,advanced air mobility aircraft have critical dependencies on air service operators including air taxi services,traditional airlines and ride-share operators.Apps:A passenger would ideally book and manage the travel shown for regional air mobility,and urban air mobility using a single app.Creating such apps is a complex effort as they will require a number of separate,interconnected elements.These include the consumer app,a back-end marketplace system,and interfaces to partner systems(for instance airlines and rideshare services).The consumer app will order and book air taxi flights and show the status.The back-end marketplace system would provide a database tracking availability of aircraft,pilots,and vertiports so those can be efficiently matched to consumer demand and assets can be optimized.The interfaces to partner systems enable ordering air taxis through airline or rideshare partners-or to book airline flights or rideshares to enable an end-to-end trip.Doing so would maximize convenience(and potential travel benefits associated with any loyalty programs),minimize cost,and synchronize all travel legs(for example,in the case of flight delays,ride share drivers would not be sent prematurely).For instance,Joby recently announced their ElevateOS software suite which is an optimized software solution to address this need.88 Two examples of operators are airlines and air taxi services.Airlines:Airlines can operate routes,and partner with other services:o buying advanced air mobility aircraft for some routes as advanced air mobility aircraft may be or become more cost effective compared with other small aircraft operated by airline partners(for example,on lower demand rural routes)88 Joby Press Release,“Joby Announces ElevateOS Software Suite for Air Taxi Operations“,June 20,2024.See.32 o collaborating to offer combined services for passengers who will have flights involving both air taxi services and traditional airlines.o A large number of partnerships have been announced between advanced air mobility aircraft manufacturers and major airlines which provide a guide to what may be expected once the relevant aircraft complete type certification and are able to enter service.Some of these will involve aircraft purchases while others will involve more strategic coordination between airline and air taxi flights.As one recent example,on July 12,2024,Archer announced a partnership with Southwest Airlines to pursue longer distances via a multi flight journey between two California destinations,Santa Monica and Napa(roughly 400 miles),which could be flown in less than three hours combined but broken into three separate flights:Santa Monica to Burbank(via Archer),Burbank to Oakland(via Southwest Airlines)and Oakland to Napa(via Archer).89 Table 7:Selected partnerships between advanced air mobility aircraft manufacturers and major airlines Advanced Air Mobility Aircraft Company Announced Major Airline Partner Archer Etihad90 IndiGo(InterGlobe parent)91 Southwest Airlines92 United Airlines93 89 Archer Aviation and Southwest Airlines Joint Press Release,“Southwest Airlines Signs Memorandum Of Understanding With Archer Aviation To Develop Operational Concepts For Air Taxi Network”,July 12,2024.See.90Archer Press Release,“Archer Aviation Partners With Etihad Aviation Training For eVTOL Pilot Training Operations Based In Abu Dhabi”,May 20,2024.See.91 Archer and InterGlobe Enterprises Joint Press Release,“InterGlobe Enterprises and Archer Aviation Announce Plans to Launch All-Electric Air Taxi Service Across India in 2026”,November 9,2023.See.92 Archer and Southwest Airlines Joint Press Release,“Southwest Airlines Signs Memorandum Of Understanding With Archer Aviation To Develop Operational Concepts For Air Taxi Network”,July 12,2024.See.93 Archer and United Airlines Joint Press Release,“United Airlines and Archer Announce First Commercial Electric Air Taxi Route in Chicago”,March 23,2023.See.33 Joby Delta Airlines94 Lilium Lufthansa95 Saudia96,97 Vertical Aerospace American Airlines98 Air taxi services:There is now an official designation for services involving short distance(less than 100 miles)and small passenger count(4 or less)for instance between suburbs and cities,or across congested cities.99 Air taxis might disrupt short-distance travel similarly to how ride-sharing disrupted the legacy taxi market by offering greater convenience and transparency via mobile phone apps,air taxi services provide a parallel.For instance,Blade has placed an order for up to 20 eVTOL aircraft from BETA Technologies100 and Helijet has also placed orders for eVTOL aircraft from BETA Technologies101.Other:Other categories of operators might provide service for targeted vertical markets(such as eco-tourism,oil and gas,and public service).For instance,Bristow Group serves the offshore energy and government service markets and has announced that it is evaluating AAM aircraft from BETA Technologies,Electra.aero,Elroy Air,Embraers Eve(88%owned by Embraer),Lilium,Overair,Vertical,and 94 Delta Airlines and Joby Joint Press Release,“Delta,Joby Aviation Partner to Pioneer Home-to-Airport Transportation to Customers“,October 11,2022.See.95 Lilium Press Release,“Lufthansa Group and Lilium sign Memorandum of Understanding for strategic partnership”,December 7,2023.See.96 Lilium and Saudia Joint Press Release,“Lilium and SAUDIA announce plan to bring Electric Air Mobility to Saudi Arabia”,October 26,2022.See.97 Lilium and Saudia Joint Press Release,“Saudia Group Signs Industry-Leading Sales Agreement With Lilium to Acquire Up to 100 eVTOL Jets“,July 18,2024.See.98 American Airlines Press Release,“American Airlines Invests in the Future of Urban Air Mobility”,June 10,2021.See.99 Aviation International News,Colleen Mondor,“The Not-so-New Vision of Air Taxis”,September 5,2023.See.100 Blade press release,“Blade Air Mobility and BETA Technologies complete historic Electric Vertical Aircraft flight in New York”,February 14,2023.See.101 Helijet press release,“Helijet Places Order With BETA Technologies For First Passenger Service eVTOL Aircraft in Canada”,October 21,2023.See.34 Volocopter102.Bristow has placed a firm order with BETA Technologies for 5 eVTOL aircraft with the option to purchase 50 additional aircraft103.Commercial Commercial partners play an essential though behind-the-scenes role in the AAM industry by providing capital and mitigating risk in a similar manner as with the existing air transportation industry.These financial participants may benefit from the background into the advanced air mobility industry which is provided in this document.Finance The advanced air mobility industry needs a number of forms of financing which is provided by various 3rd parties(investors and lessors)as described below.Investors The advanced air mobility industry is a new industry involving new aircraft and infrastructure which must be designed,certified,manufactured,launched,and maintained.This will require up to tens of billions of dollars of investment.Investors in advanced air mobility industry company debt and equity are taking long-term risk in exchange for longer-term returns and this risk capital is foundational.Lessors Many of the aircraft used by airlines today are not owned by the airlines but rather by airline leasing companies(lessors)such as AerCap(the largest company which acquired the previous leader,GE Capital Aviation Services)and Avolon.These and other lessors own hundreds of airplanes and lease them for use by airlines in exchange for lease payments under contract.Insurance Naturally,even when well-designed,extensively certified,and properly maintained operating aircraft involves risk,for instance,various degrees of equipment failures and associated commercial and/or human loss.In the worst case,such failures could trigger extremely large overall claims(for example,hundreds of millions of dollars).Just as consumers purchase insurance to cover potential losses for their automobiles against accidents and for their homes against earthquakes,fires,and other risks,airlines purchase insurance to apply capital across large numbers of aircraft and flights to 102 Mandy Nelson,Bristow Director of Strategic Relations,Presentation to Vertical Flight Societys Transformative Vertical Flight Conference in Santa Clara,February 8,2024.103 Vertical Magazine,“Bristow places firm order for Betas ALIA eVTOL aircraft”,August 9,2022.See.35 manage this risk.Insurers do this using actuarial tables to assess risk and charge their customers insurance to profitably cover these risks.For established industries,Insurers are able to utilize historical data to characterize this risk.As the advanced air mobility industry is a new industry its risk profile is less certain(for example,risks associated with electrical propulsion systems,and new aircraft designs)so Insurers need to undertake more risk until it is established by doing so they enable the advanced air mobility industry to become established and grow.Some insurers which appear to be focusing resources on insuring the advanced air mobility industry include Global Aerospace,Newfront Insurance,and Skyrisks104.For additional information,see a recent podcast with Alistair Bundy,CEO of Skyrisks,on insuring the advanced air mobility industry.Of course,over time as the advanced air mobility market grows and its risk profile becomes more clear,large historic Insurers for the aviation industry are likely to become prominent insurers for the advanced air mobility industry.These include:AIG,Allianz,Chubb,Lloyds of London,and Starr.Government A variety of government entities play an essential role in existing aviation markets and are expected to do the same for the advanced air mobility industry.In general,two broad categories of government entities will be described briefly:certification authorities(including regulators),and air traffic controllers.Certification Authorities and Regulators These government organizations ensure safety by defining processes and rules to certify,inspect,regulate,and supervise aircraft,engines,and pilots.They will do the same for the advanced air mobility industry through a combination of existing and new processes and rules.There is not a single global certification authority but instead a number of national and regional entities though some degree of collaboration exists.Certification authorities include:Civil Aviation Administration of China(CAAC,China)Civil Aviation Authority(CAA,U.K.)Directorate General of Civil Aviation(DGCA,India)European Union Aviation Safety Agency(EASA,European Union)Federal Aviation Administration(FAA,U.S.)General Civil Aviation Authority(GCAA,U.A.E.)104 Presentations at the Vertical Flight Societys Transformative Vertical Flight conference in Santa Clara on February 8,2024 from the named representatives of Global Aerospace(Connor Haarhuls,Senior Underwriter),Newfront Insurance(Scott Gault,Senior VP)and Skyrisks(Allistair Blundy,CEO).36 Japan Civil Aviation Board(JCAB,Japan)Korean Office of Civil Aviation(KOCA,Korea)National Civil Aviation Agency(ANAC,Brazil)Air Traffic Controllers Air traffic controllers monitor the airspace and flight paths of aircraft in controlled airspace(for example,near airports).Air traffic controllers use radar,visual observation from air traffic control towers and other tools to provide route guidance via radio to ensure smooth and safe movement of the various aircraft.Air traffic controllers enforce traffic separation rules to maintain safe distances between the aircraft they are monitoring.Globally this responsibility is managed by the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO,a U.N.entity which coordinates safe navigation through the air)in cooperation with the International Air Transport Association(IATA,an airline trade organization)and other organizations.Other Government Agencies Other government agencies can also play a very important role in the current stage of the advanced air mobility industry.For instance,in the U.S.the National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA)has been very proactive in working with the advanced air mobility industry.NASA has developed highly complex tools for modeling and simulation(for example,noise,flow dynamics,wind tunnels,electric propulsion,and crash dynamics).These tools are provided to U.S.-based advanced air mobility aircraft companies to assist with their development105.For instance,NASAs OVERFLOW simulation program“predicts aircraft noise and aerodynamic performance”.106 NASA also innovates in future areas of air traffic control.107 Consumers When consumers(or aircraft passengers)purchase tickets,they create demand for air transportation,thereby supporting the economic viability of the broader air transportation industry including the advanced air mobility industry.Without consumers generating significant demand for advanced air mobility flights,the advanced air mobility industry will not achieve significant scale.A few key criteria which are expected 105 Christopher Silva,“Updates to NASA Urban Air Mobility Reference Vehicles:Incorporating Recent Technology,Policy and Economic Developments”,Presented at the Vertical Flight Societys Transformative Vertical Flight Conference in Santa Clara,California on February 7,2024),106 FlyingM,Jack Dalio,“Electric Air Taxi Manufacturers Turn to NASA to Model Noise”,April 9,2024.See.107 Dr.Parimal Kopardekar,Advanced Air Mobility Mission Integration Manager,NASA,Presented at the Vertical Flight Societys Transformative Vertical Flight Conference in Santa Clara,California on February 7,2024)37 to impact consumer demand for advanced air mobility flights include awareness,safety,price,convenience,and comfort.Awareness:Consumer awareness of the advanced air mobility industry and related aspects of it are fairly minimal today.This is a fairly fundamental problem as consumers dont purchase what they arent aware of or dont understand.Addressing this problem will require industry outreach through explanation(for example,this white paper),live demonstrations of advanced air mobility aircraft,local community outreach,and advertising.Once consumers begin to use advanced air mobility aircraft,if their experience is good then they are likely to provide“free advertising”by telling their friends and colleagues about their experiences.Safety:Until consumers are confident that advanced air mobility aircraft are safe to fly in,they will not use them.The various government agencies must ensure that procedures and rules governing safety for advanced air mobility aircraft and pilots of advanced air mobility aircraft meet rigorous safety levels.Then the advanced air mobility Industry and various government agencies must communicate this effectively so consumers have confidence.Without getting into details,consumers perception of safety may also be affected by the advanced air mobility aircraft design and they may prefer some advanced air mobility aircraft over others.As with other industries,there will be consumers who are both technology enthusiasts and skeptics.Geoffrey Moore describes these groups of consumers and their behavior in his insightful 1992 book Crossing the Chasm108.A figure from that book details the stages of new technology adoption.108 Geoffrey Moore,Crossing the Chasm(New York:HarperCollins,1991)38 Figure 11:Crossing the Chasm109 Pricing:Consumer purchase intent is strong when the benefit is compelling and weak when the benefit is modest.Price is one highly visible indicator of the perceived consumer benefit.In simple terms,low pricing attracts demand and high pricing deters it.The advanced air mobility industry has been referencing future pricing that relates to the cost of taking a ride share service for that same ride but with a significant reduction in travel time.If this is realized,that will likely be attractive to enable the advanced air mobility market to start with early adopters and migrate to a potentially large market if the“chasm”is successfully crossed.However,if actual launch pricing is a significant premium versus the price to use a ride share service,then the demand will likely be limited to a far smaller market of affluent consumers.Convenience:Integration and infrastructure are key convenience elements for consumers.Integration between the air taxi service and associated ride sharing services ensures convenience for the consumer.If a single booking can be easily managed and synchronized(for example,rides to and from the air taxi flight)that will encourage demand.However,if a consumer needs to book three separate reservations(rideshare 1,air taxi service,and rideshare 2)that triggers some purchase friction.Suitable advanced air mobility infrastructure(for example,109 www.images.app.goo.gl/zbtLZA2F2U5BcckV6 39 vertiports)located near both the origin and destination both maximizes the benefit of the air taxi service and the convenience for the consumer.Overall time savings:The consumer is likely to compare the travel time for their various options.If the time savings for using an air taxi is significant then the air taxi option will be attractive.However,if the savings is marginal then the familiar option of using the rideshare will likely be selected instead.For instance,some consumers may consider a 50-75%time savings to be significant and a 10-25%time savings to be marginal but this assessment will vary by consumer.Comfort:Some consumers will be enticed by a comfortable air taxi experience,particularly more affluent consumers.Less affluent consumers may be willing to compromise comfort for lower prices.Comfort in this context is multi-faceted and includes perceptions of seating,environment(climate and noise),storage,and connectivity.In-cabin experience designs for advanced air mobility aircraft should keep consumer comfort in mind though the design decisions related to comfort will vary depending on the consumer segmentation they are targeting.Accessibility:A broad range of accessibility needs and levels of accessibility need to be considered in AAM aircraft products include auditory,language,mobility,and visual.Ideally these can be addressed to maximize the number of consumers who will be able to access advanced air mobility aircraft.However,it may not be feasible to address all of these in initial advanced air mobility aircraft product offerings due to other critical certification and business priorities.Potential solutions include:o Auditory:sign language videos and closed captioning o Language:range of languages in menus prioritized based on markets o Mobile:ramps and door width o Visual:braille signs and larger font sizes Passenger information:Passenger air services will likely need to provide safety information to reassure passengers and comply with any applicable regulations.It may also be helpful to provide expected arrival times,and other information about their route.Other design considerations:Advanced air mobility aircraft which are designed for longer missions of greater than one hour,for instance the regional air mobility market,may need to include other considerations in their design including toilets,audio and video entertainment options,and WiFi access.Cost,space and weight implications may make some of these challenging,especially in advanced air mobility aircraft which are smaller or more cost-constrained.40 Chapter 3:Advanced air mobility passenger aircraft market The passenger market serves passengers using commercial advanced air mobility aircraft.Broadly,there are two current markets which have been commonly targeted:urban air mobility,and regional air mobility.The urban air mobility market may be served by air taxis and air shuttle buses.Air taxis provide passengers with a customized experience in terms of their arrival and departure locations,departure time,and reserving the aircraft for an individual or known group of people traveling together.By comparison,air shuttle buses provide a standardized experience in terms of fixed arrival and departure locations,fixed departure times,and travel involving unknown passengers.Air shuttle buses are expected to use aircraft which can carry more passengers thus benefit from economies of scale,lower costs per passenger seat mile,and thus potentially serve a more mass-market demographic.For instance,Sora Aviation is targeting the airport shuttle segment of the urban air mobility market.110 The U.K.government has funded an excellent report on the eVTOL airport shuttle market which provides additional context on the market opportunity,benefits and operations.111 Urban air mobility targets shorter-range(for example,10 to 100 miles)travel.This short travel might be trunk routes with known demand and infrastructure like airports to city centers thereby crossing heavily congested urban traffic areas.These trunk routes might be followed by branch routes between suburban areas and city centers.Archer,EHang,Joby,SkyDrive,Supernal,Volocopter,and Wisk are companies that appear to be targeting urban air mobility.110 Published information on website 111 Frazer-Nash Consultancy,“Scaling Advanced Air Mobility in the UK”,November 2023.See.41 Figure 12:Urban Air Mobility Air Taxi Use Case112 Figure 13:Urban Air Mobility Air Shuttle Bus Use Case113 Urban air mobility is expected to become a significant market in the future based on the large populations living in urban areas.Nikhil Goel,Archer Aviations Chief Commercial 112 Air taxi examples:Top image:Archer,courtesy of Archer;Bottom image:Joby,courtesy of Joby.113 Air taxi example:Sora,courtesy of Sora.42 Officer,elaborated on the March 8,2024 episode of the“Fix This”podcast.He described a number of key points related to urban air mobility114:o Today roughly half of the worlds population lives in cities but in 2045 this will proportion will increase to roughly two-third(approximately 6 billion people)o Three dimensional travel(via air)can scale exponentially at low cost versus expanding our ground transportation network o eVTOL aircraft provide many benefits versus helicopters:o roughly 1/100 the noise o roughly 1/10 the cost and roughly comparable to price of an Uber ride o much greater levels of component redundancy to enhance safety.o Archer Midnight eVTOL design is optimized for the urban air mobility market in terms of range and speed.Regional air mobility involves medium length flights,likely in the range of 50 to 500 miles,thereby covering flights between cities.The greater range of regional air mobility flights enables more passenger transportation to be addressed using advanced air mobility aircraft.Currently lift-plus-cruise or hydrogen fuel cell aircraft seem better able to meet the higher end of the regional air mobility range but other advanced air mobility aircraft may be able to achieve this range over time with greater battery density and more efficient electric motors.Alakai,BETA115,Electra.aero,Eviation,Joby,and Lilium116 are companies with announced plans to pursue regional air mobility either initially or as a secondary market though BETA is expected to pursue urban air mobility markets for both passengers and cargo.On July 11,2024 Joby announced that they have demonstrated a hydrogen fuel cell version of their S4 eVTOL aircraft,leveraging technology from H2FLY,a Joby subsidiary.They have test flown a technology demonstrator aircraft using this technology over 500 miles.A future product with this range would enable flights between San Francisco and San Diego or Boston and Baltimore.117,118 Lilium has also publicly stated recently that they expect that the 114 Fix This Podcast#81,Annie Evans,“Elevating Urban Transportation with Archer Aviation”,March 8,2024.See 115 Published information on www.beta.team and public filings(See which references Victoria Harbor to Vancouver Harbor flights of approximately 73 miles).116 Electrek,Scooter Doll,“Lilium(LILM)signs partnership to bring its unique EVTOL jets to Asia beginning in the Philippines”,February 20,2024.See.117 Joby Aviation Press Release,“Joby demonstrates potential for emissions-free regional journeys with landmark 523-mile hydrogen-electric flight”,July 11,2024.See.118 Vertical Magazine,Jen Nevans,“Joby completes landmark 523-mile hydrogen-electric VTOL flight”,July 11,2024.See.43“premium”market will be prioritized for early deliveries119,120.BETA has indicated publicly that both the BETA ALIA eCTOL(CX300)and the BETA ALIA eVTOL(A250)will initially enter the market in a cargo capacity,but will enter into the passenger market as a“fast follow”.Nalwa Aero advises that“Nalwa Aeros 5X tilt-fan AAM aircraft is designed to serve both the urban air mobility and short-range regional air mobility markets.With a maximum range of 280 miles(450 km)and a top speed of 249 mph(400 kph),the aircraft is capable of efficiently transporting passengers within urban areas and between nearby cities and regions,offering greater flexibility and accessibility for various use cases.121 Figure 14:Regional Air Mobility Advanced Air Mobility Use Case122 Depending on the distances involved,this journey may instead be completed using a single advanced air mobility flight.Another regional air mobility use case,involves travel between islands(for example,in Hawaii,Indonesia,and the Philippines).These inter-island trips are excellent candidates for service using cleaner advanced air mobility aircraft to replace existing fossil fuel based aircraft.Companies are pursuing the advanced air mobility air taxi market using a range of design approaches.119 Published information on and public filings on 120 eVTOL News,“Joby Aviation SHy4(technology demonstrator)”,July 12,2024.See.121 Nalwa Aero,direct communications,April 15,2024.122 Air taxi example courtesy of Lilium 44 Figure 15:Archer Midnight123 Figure 16:Joby S4124 123 Image Courtesy of Archer Aviation 124 Image Courtesy of Joby Aviation 45 Figure 17:Supernal S-A2125 Figure 18:Wisk Generation 6126 125 Image Courtesy of Supernal 126 Image Courtesy of Wisk Aero 46 Table 8 Select tilt-propeller vectored-thrust air taxis127 Archer Midnight Joby S4 Supernal S-A2 Wisk Generation 6 Headquarters San Jose,CA(U.S.A.)Santa Cruz,CA(U.S.A.)Washington,D.C.(U.S.A.)Mountain View,CA(U.S.A.)Aircraft design type Tilt-propeller Vectored-thrust eVTOL Autonomous or piloted Piloted Autonomous Seating capacity(passengers)4 Max Range with reserves(miles/km)128 100/161 150/241 40/64 90/145 Max speed(mph/kph)150/241 200/322 120/193 138/222 Max noise(cruising dB)45 45129 65 Not Reported Max noise(hover dB)Not Reported 65130 Not Reported Number of Propellers or Fans 6 tilting(front)6 fixed(rear)6 tilting 8 tilting 6 tilting(front)6 fixed(rear)127 Published information on company websites and public filings unless noted otherwise(for example,battery and motor details).128 These reported numbers may involve some discrepancy depending on how the various companies calculate reserve numbers since the methodology for that is not broadly standardized.129 Joby Website,“Joby Confirms Revolutionary Low Noise Footprint Following NASA Testing”,May 10,2022.See.130 Joby Website,“Joby Confirms Revolutionary Low Noise Footprint Following NASA Testing”,May 10,2022.See.47 Archer Midnight Joby S4 Supernal S-A2 Wisk Generation 6 Number of electric motors 12 6 8 12 Battery capacity(kWH)142 Not Reported Not Reported Not Reported Charger type CCS GEACS CCS Charger time (80%,Level 2,minutes)12 10 15 Payload(pounds/kg)1000/454 1000/454 1000/454 Target Certification year 2024131 2024 Within this decade Target Entry into Service Year 2025132 2025 131 Archer target certification year as of November 2022(https:/ Archer target entry into service year as of February 2024(https:/ Figure 19:BETA ALIA CX300133 Figure 20:Eviation Alice134 133 Image from https:/www.beta.team/timeline.134 Image courtesy of Eviation.49 Figure 21:Electra.aero135 Table 9:Select eCTOL and eSTOL aircraft136 BETA Technologies ALIA CX300 Eviation Alice Electra.aero Headquarters South Burlington,VT(U.S.A.)Arlington,WA(U.S.A.)Manassas,VA(U.S.A.)Aircraft design type eCTOL Hybrid-electric eSTOL Autonomous or piloted Piloted Piloted(2 pilots)Piloted 135 Image courtesy of Electra.aero.136 Published information on company websites and public filings unless noted otherwise(for example,battery and motor details).50 BETA Technologies ALIA CX300 Eviation Alice Electra.aero Seating capacity(passengers)=5 50 mile)between cities.Type Certification:Confirmation by the certification authority that a specific aircraft and all of its component parts have been verified to be compliant with the regulatory certification Basis.UAM:Abbreviation for Urban Air Mobility.UAM involves an advanced air mobility aircraft which targets shorter-range(for example,20 to 50 miles)travel that may move between suburban areas and city centers or crossing heavily congested urban traffic areas.Vertiport:A facility containing one or more take-off and landing pads for helicopters or eVTOLs along with charging facilities for eVTOLs.252 eVTOL News,Mike Hirschberg,“Competing Standards”,December 18,2023.See.108 About the Author Eric Schiff has held a range of product management,product line management and partnership roles in the technology industry since 1995.Mr.Schiff worked at Dolby Labs,National Semiconductor,Trident Microsystems and Zoran where he worked with industry leaders on products used in Airplanes(in-flight entertainment),Automobiles,PCs,Set-top Boxes,Streaming Media Players,and Televisions.Mr.Schiff holds a Bachelors degree in Business Economics from Brown University and an MBA from the University of Virginia.Mr.Schiff believes in the Advanced Air Mobility industrys potential,attended the Vertical Flight Societys Transformative Vertical Flight Conference in February 2024 and is a member of the Vertical Flight Society.For more information,see I would like to thank my wife,Julia,and my daughters,Bailey and Lily,for supporting me during this journey.I also thank several for their thoughtful review,clarifications and insights.My editor,Chris Sherwood,for his detailed review and dedication to clarity.Angelo Collins and Mike Hirschberg of the Vertical Flight Society for helping me distribute and promote this white paper.The following industry reviewers for sharing their seasoned perspectives and invaluable comments to ensure I captured accurately the complexities and subtleties of a range of topics covered in this white paper:Andrew Mearns,Johnny Doo,Mike Hirschberg,and Rex Alexander.While I have made a genuine effort to contact the companies which are prominently mentioned in this white paper to confirm the accuracy of specific company and product-related content,unfortunately,not all companies responded.However,it is with sincere thanks that Id like to recognize the following companies for their review and feedback to ensure the accuracy of information contained here related to their companies and their advanced air mobility-related products:Alakai Technologies,EHang,Electra.aero,Jetson,Jump Aero,Nalwa Aero,Skyports Infrastructure,Sora Aviation,and Wisk Aero.I would also like to thank the other companies which shared their feedback though I respect their desire to remain anonymous due to their corporate policies.109 Note on white paper title While the use of“Demystifying”as part of the title came to the author independently,the author subsequently became aware of Brian Yutko(Wisk CEO)s excellent,informative podcast“Demystifying Autonomy”which is available for reference here.Disclaimer The information provided here is an opinion piece based on the authors current understanding of available information.The author has made efforts to review this information and images for accuracy with companies mentioned but apologizes for any unintentional inaccuracies of data or perspective that readers may observe.Copyrights This document is copyrighted by Eric T.Schiff but distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 4.0 International license(CC BY-SA 4.0),meaning it may be shared as long as attribution is given to the author and the source.Images provided in this document may be protected by their original creators and are included here under“Fair Use.”
2024-12-29
114页
5星级
Nordic InnovationReinventing aviation in the Nordics2024Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.November 2024Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.20242“Policymakers can accelerate the uptake of battery-electric and hydrogen aircraft through framing strategic goals and forward-looking policies.”1The urgent need to reduce the climate impact of aviation is beyond dispute,demanding swift and extensive action.The global airline industry has already committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions from their operations by 2050.However,achieving this goal demands action on many fronts,including the development of new aircraft and propulsion technology.The Nordic region is uniquely positioned to lead the global transition,particularly in regional electric aviation where the Nordic region is already a global leader.The Nordic Network for Electric Aviation(NEA)is committed to driving this transformation,enhancing Nordic competitiveness,and securing regional jobs,in collaboration with the Nordic governments.The solutions needed are within reach,and the electric aviation ecosystem is set to commercialise by the end of this decade.Nordic governments and policymakers are important parts of the puzzle,i.e.in the ongoing systems change,and must play their part in supporting and enabling the transition to regional electric aviation.NEA,an industry-driven collaboration and innovation project supported and co-funded by Nordic Innovation since its launch in 2019,was in 2024 tasked with assessing progress and identifying obstacles to the realisation of electric aviation in the Nordics.In response to a mandate from the Nordic Ministers for Transport and Infrastructure,NEA embarked on a Nordic Policy Tour starting in Denmark in April and ending in Iceland in May 2024.This tour brought together over 100 representatives from the aviation industry,policymakers,experts,and stakeholders in mobility and transport across all five Nordic countries.The goal was clear:to align industry and governmental actions to expedite the implementation of electric aviation in the Nordics,including cross-border flights.The“Target True Zero:Government Policy Toolkit to Accelerate Uptake of Electric and Hydrogen Aircraft”,prepared by the World Economic Forum with input from NEA and others,has been used as guidance in connection with the Policy Tour and as a structural basis for this report.Executive summaryAccelerating the Uptake of Electric Aviation in the Nordics:A call to Action to align industry and governmental actions in the Nordics1 https:/www.weforum.org/publications/target-true-zero-govern-ment-policy-toolkit-o-accelerate-uptake-of-electric-and-hydrogen-aircraft/Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.20243The purpose of this report is to share the insights from the NEA Policy Tour 2024.The short-term goals of the tour were as follows:Map the current state of electric aviationEstablishing a baseline for joint action moving forward.This included country-specific reports and assessments as well as joint Nordic recommendations and activities.Identify obstacles and opportunitiesIdentifying obstacles to the realisation and commercialisation of Nordic electric aviation from 2028 onwards.Opportunities at societal,regional,and industry levels were explored,including benefits for the public.Provide grounds for decision-makingThe tour,and hence this report,aimed to provide the Nordic governments with sufficient grounds for decision-making regarding the next steps at the Nordic and at the national level.1.2.3.The Nordic region includes all the partners needed in the ecosystem to pioneer new technologies for electric and hybrid-electric aviation.This presents a significant opportunity to lead in the drive to net-zero aviation,fostering both the net-zero transition and economic growth.To realise the potential,it is necessary to overcome engineering challenges,to develop new business models,and to implement policies that encourage adoption.In short,a collaborative effort among industry,governments,and politicians is urgently needed.2 https:/www.iata.org/en/programs/sustainability/flynetzero/Reinventing aviation in the Nordics through Electric AviationNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.20244Although the Nordic countries are small,collectively they form the worlds 11 largest economy,capable of making a significant impact.By integrating aviation,energy,and industrial strategies,the Nordics can establish themselves as leaders in sustainable aviation also in a long-term perspective.“Not so long ago,the perceived wisdom suggested that demand for sub-50-seat regional airliners would remain limited for a foreseeable future.But the pressure to bring reduced or zero carbon propulsion technology to market is changing the outlook and opening new possibilities to connect thousands of smaller communities that benefit from little or no scheduled airline service.”Quote from Charles Alcock,Farnborough Airshow 2024 Electric aviation will shape a new form of transportation,in between the commercial aviation of today and public transportation.It will increase availability,not only with new routes,but also with increased frequency.As noted in the NEA report,“Business models for Nordic electric aviation”3:“Businesses that are located in rural areas can get much better connections to regional and national markets and capitals,as well as the rest of the world,which can be translated into economic growth for these businesses”.Regional and national governments may see themselves at the centre of a new and blooming global industry.When electric aviation becomes available to customers,the increased flexibility may shift the trend of urbanisation by offering ways of commuting that are flexible,affordable and sustainable.Regions may become more attractive to young people,and they may be seen as more lucrative places to establish business.Greater connectivity will result in increased welfare for many by providing better access to essential services and opportunities.This report shares findings and provides recommendations that aim to deliver a technology transition where the Nordics are setting the global standard.3 https:/www.nordicinnovation.org/2022/business-models-nordic-electric-aviationNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.20245Nordic GoalsThere is already a Nordic framework in place upon which targeted,joint Nordic goals and priorities for electric aviation and the way forward can be built:The Nordic Prime Ministers vision(Nordic Vision 2030)says that the Nordic region will become the most sustainable and integrated region in the world by 2030.One of three innovation missions under the Nordic Vision 2030 states that the Nordic region should become a pioneering region for green mobility.The Fredrikstad declaration concretises this ambition.A study commissioned by Nordic Innovation,“The next stages of Nordic Innovation and Cooperation for sustainable mobility and transport|Nordic Innovation”,concluded that the transition to green aviation should be a top priority for collaboration in mobility and transport going forward.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.20246Net-zero Aviation StrategyAll Nordic countries are committed to achieving net-zero aviation by 2050,in line with ICAO and EU goals.However,the national goals vary in terms of scale,timeline,and terminology-such as“net-zero”,“CO2 neutral”,“fossil-free”,“green”and“carbon neutrality”.Accelerate the transition towards zero and low emission aviationAligned with ICAOAll departing domestic flightsAll departing international flightsAligned with ICAOAs soon as technologically possible205020502030205020252050 Aligned with ICAO All domestic routes Aligned with ICAO One domestic route Aligned with ICAO Net-zeroNet-zeroGreen routeGreen routeNet-zero2030(domestic)2045(all aviation)2050Zero and low emissionNet-zeroFossil-freeFossil-freeNet-zero Key FindingsTask 1ScopeYeartargetDenmarkFinlandIcelandNorwaySwedenNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.20247Create Enabling EnvironmentWhile there is support for innovation,research and development in place,more is needed to accelerate progress.Electric aviation often competes with other mobility solutions for grants.In many cases the selection criteria are not relevant or targeted enough for electric aviation.Furthermore,electric aviation bridges public and commercial transport,offering unique benefits that current frameworks sometimes overlook.The Policy Tour confirms that regulatory bodies appreciate the opportunity to discuss aviation at a systemic level,recognising its potential for transformative impact.Nordic regulatory bodies face challenges in developing and deploying updated regulatory frameworks through ICAO,the EU,and EASA before the technology exists and is available in the market.This is a chicken and egg dilemma.It is vital to avoid delays in the innovation and implementation process to reach the 2030 climate targets and to foster a viable new aviation industry.Cross-border support and collaboration within the Nordic region can accelerate the realisation of electric aviation.On the Policy Tour country meetings were held,and all reported back that clarifications are needed as regards which laws and regulations apply to electric aviation.Only road and water transportation can be regarded as public transportation,according to EU-legislation.This is a barrier to the development of electric aviation and to the development of multimodality and new business models.Accelerate Uptake with Incentives and Targets Currently no Nordic country has specific incentives or targets for electric or hybrid-electric aviation in place.However,Norway and Denmark have published plans that include electric aviation.Norways National Transport Plan allocates NOK 1 billion to support zero and low-emission aviation from 2025 to 2036.Denmark has agreed to establish a public fund to support the transition through tenders for green domestic routes,as well as funding to support smaller regional airports,and other initiatives-in total 2.85 billion between 2027 to 2033.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.20248 Allocate more state funding:There should be a joint Nordic investment strategy to help fund the agreed goals.This should cover all parts of the ecosystem,including airports(grid,charging,energy storage,loans),airlines(routes,pilot training,loans),OEMs(innovation,R&D,testing,scaling,loans,production investment),government(CAA empowered).Delivering a new generation of electric aircraft will require considerable state financial support.All the incumbent OEMs are the global leaders they are because they have the support and backing of host states that provide bridging loans and other financial mechanisms to compensate for the long R&D lead times that the private sector cannot support.It is a fact that no modern-day aircraft programme has come to market without some form of government funding,up to and including the most recent airframe and engines we see flying today.In the Nordics,there is also precedent.The Swedish government supported the development of the SF340 and 2000 programmes in the 1980s with funding solutions.Unless the Nordic countries,individually or collectively,are prepared to do the same with Nordic OEMs,there is a risk that the technology will scale in other countries and regions that are prepared to invest.This is not a question of providing direct state aid in the form of grants,but rather financial instruments(loans,guarantees)that are more favourable than what is available in the open market.Agree key policy priority areas:The Nordic states should identify and establish priority areas for policy development and create blueprints for implementation.An example could be to prioritise infrastructure development in good time before aircraft enter into service.Ensure infrastructure is delivered in parallel:All Nordic airports are currently working on their implementation plans.However,without the timely development of infrastructure(charging infrastructure,grid capacity,energy forecasts),there is a risk that new electric aircraft technology will not be able to be fully utilised when ready for take-off.Collaboration within the ecosystem is crucial.Identifying obstacles and opportunitiesDuring the Policy Tour the NEA ecosystem identified the obstacles that may prevent a technology transition,and turned them into recommendations:Set Nordic Goals:The Nordic countries should define a set of goals for 2040 with subgoals and intermediate milestones to attract investors and spur governmental and industry action.These goals should also be supported with state funding mechanisms.A first goal could be to agree,on the Nordic level,on where the first electric routes should be and support the realisation with funding.Task 2Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.20249 Strengthen regulatory agency collaboration:The cooperation between the CAAs in the Nordics and the entire ecosystem of electric aviation should be strengthened.This would ensure that preparatory work on new laws and regulations are ready and in step with the timelines of new aircraft delivery.There is a need for closer cooperation and focus on electric aviation within EASA,the EU and ICAO to set international standards in Europe and globally.The Swedish Minister of Infrastructure emphasised the importance of preparatory work on future laws and regulations to avoid regulatory conflicts once the aircrafts are ready.(First meeting in February 2024 between NEA and the Nordic ministers)The Nordic states should collaborate to maintain their leading position,accelerate the implementation of international and EU regulatory frameworks,support the scaling up the industry,and position the Nordics as a test arena for electric/hybrid-electric aviation.Avinor and the Norwegian Civil Aviation Authority have entered into a cooperation agreement on the establishment of Norway as an international test arena for zero-and low-emission aircraft.There is also test arenas in Sweden and Finland.We should assure that they learn from each other and collaborate to enhance the work even more.Airports need comprehensive forecasts to start planning,to set up grid for an airport takes time.There is also a need for a stronger electric grid in the Nordics with more capacity/production to support airports with the electricity needed.Review EU PSO rules to drive technology uptake:The Nordic region is a pioneer and significant user of PSO networks.The current EU level rules on PSO could be adapted to drive a faster uptake of new electric technology by prioritising new technology and driving funding to ground infrastructure.In making these recommendations,NEA partners emphasise the importance of supporting all technologies and pathways that contribute to sustainable aviation.Electric and hybrid-electric technologies offer clear pathways to decarbonisation for regional flights,and they can alleviate the demand for sustainable aviation fuels(SAF)which is urgently needed for longer flights.Overall,it is essential that all aviation actors,industry and government must focus on both SAF and new technologies,ensuring a comprehensive strategy for sustainable aviation.The industry will only achieve its net-zero targets using a basket of measures and no industry roadmap to net-zero gets beyond 70%with SAF alone.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202410Providing ground for decision-makingNext Steps for Accelerating Electric Aviation in the NordicsTo build on the momentum generated by the Nordic Policy Tour and the findings from the recent assessment,the following next steps are recommended to further accelerate the adoption of electric aircraft in the Nordics:Proposal:Establish a Nordic Working GroupTo debate,develop and implement these findings and recommendations,it is crucial that a forum is urgently established that will allow a holistic approach,but also that the fine details can be discussed and agreed.As an example,it should be agreed what could be done collectively at the Nordic level and what should be done at the national level.Even if the overall goals are shared,there may be differences as regards the approach to implementation.A Nordic working group could provide a platform for sharing best practices,harmonising regulations,and coordinating infrastructure development and preparations for the implementation of electric aviation before the end of the decade.Moreover,it would give the Nordics a united front when working with global partners,such as EU,EASA and ICAO.Task 3The findings in this report of the NEA Policy tour 2024 was presented at the Nordic Transport Ministers meeting in Gothenburg,August 14th,2024.At the meeting a declaration for electric aviation was signed.“When we,the Nordic transport ministers,convened in Fredrikstad on 8 November 2022,we agreed to pave the way for the establishment of Nordic fossil-free air routes by 2030.This commitment involves promoting a fossil-free aviation sector worldwide and encouraging future collaboration between the Nordic countries.Electric aviation is pivotal in the shift towards a fossil-free aviation sector,not least in the more sparsely populated parts of the Nordic regions.The Nordic countries have the potential to become pioneers for the establishment of commercial electric aviation on a larger scale.However,to fulfil the goals set forth in the Fredrikstad declaration,we must intensify our efforts.Possible tasks of the Nordic Working groupNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202411We will do so by:-COLLABORATING on the requisite regulatory frameworks and permit processes to introduce electric aviation,while ENCOURAGING close dialogue between the Nordic authorities concerned.-ADVOCATING COLLECTIVELY in global platforms such as the European Union and the International Civil Aviation Organization for a seamless and harmonized introduction of electric aviation.-PROMOTING and ACCELERATING the establishment of commercial electric aviation in the Nordic countries,while SUPPORTING opportunities for our industries to become world leaders in important technologies related to electric aviation.”The Nordic Network for Electric Aviation(NEA)invites the Nordic ministers to embrace a collaborative approach that aligns with the goals of fostering electric aviation within the region,as expressed by the declaration.The summery of our work,so far,outlines how our shared efforts can not only meet your objectives but also position the Nordics as a global hub for electric aviation technology.1.Collaborating on Regulatory Frameworks:There is a need for coherent regulatory frameworks to facilitate the introduction of electric aviation.Collaboration can enable streamlined permit processes,ensuring a supportive environment for innovation.By establishing a Nordic Working Group,we can create a platform for close dialogue between Nordic authorities,industry stakeholders,and policymakers to discuss the unique regulatory needs of electric aviation,thus enabling faster adoption and implementation.2.Advocating Collectively on Global Platforms:Together we can be advocating for harmonised regulations and standards in international forums,including the European Union and the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO).Through a united Nordic front,we can push for policies that recognise electric aviation as a critical pathway to achieving net-zero emissions,enhancing our influence in shaping global standards.3.Promoting and Accelerating Commercial Electric Aviation:Our initiative aims to accelerate the establishment of commercial electric aviation in the Nordics.By setting joint Nordic goals for electric aviation,we can create a cohesive strategy that includes necessary funding mechanisms and infrastructure development.Establishing,on a Nordic level,where the first electric routes could be and support it with funding,will not only demonstrate feasibility but also attract investment and bolster public confidence in electric aviation.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202412More recommendations can be found in chapter 7.The Nordic region stands at the forefront of electric aviation innovation,with the potential to set global standards in sustainable aviation.By collaborating closely,we can overcome obstacles,harness opportunities and ensure that the Nordic countries not only meet their climate commitments but also secure a prosperous future in electric aviation.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202413Table of contentsIntroduction02303236404248434745495657596067797118131419152117Executive summary Chapter 1:Introducing NEA and the outlook for electric aviation in the Nordic regionClimate,cost and connectivity-the 3CsThe Nordic Network for Electric Aviation(NEA)Aviation in the Nordic countries towards 2030 BackgroundTable of contents List of AbbreviationsChapter 2:Technical developmentChapter 3:Market DevelopmentChapter 4:Net-zero Aviation StrategyMega TrendsSummaryInfrastructure to support electric aviationNordic RoutesGlobal and Nordic goalsNordic DeclarationsR&D and innovation to accelerate battery-electric and hybrid-electric aviationAirport infrastructure considerationsTechnical advancements in aircraft developmentSummaryMarket commitments from regions in the NordicsChapter 5:Creating and Enabling EnvironmentChapter 6:Accelerate Uptake with Incentives and TargetsChapter 7:The way forwardAcknowledgements for participating in NEA Policy Tour 20248069889110097 949910110710210310911192Nordic regulatory reviewCollaboration beyond the NordicsSummaryMeasures to encourage consumer awarenessGovernment financial measuresCountry contribution to accelerate uptake with incentives and targetsMandates,targets and restrictionsProviding grounds fordecision makingEstablish a Nordic Working groupContributorsReferencesWhat is important for a system change?Efforts for Sustainable Aviation Across Nordic CountriesSummaryNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202414List of AbbreviationsACI:Airports Council InternationalAFIR:Alternative Fuels Infrastructure RegulationBESS:Battery energy storageBEV:Battery electricCAA:Civil aviation authorityEASA:European Union Aviation Safety AgencyEVSE:Electric vehicle supply equipmentFAA:Federal Aviation AdministrationIATA:The International Air Transport AssociationICAO:International Civil Aviation Organization MCS:Megawatt charging systemNEA:Nordic Network for Electric AviationNISA:Nordic Initiative for Sustainable AviationPHEV:Plug-in hybrid vehiclePSO:Public Service Obligations AF:Sustainable Aviation Fuel WEF:World Economic Forum Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202415Chapter 1:Introducing NEA and the outlook for electric aviation in the Nordic regionNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202416Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202417The overall aim of the Nordic Network for Electric Aviation,NEA,is to speed up the transition to a sustainable future where Nordic citizens can benefit from innovative mobility and connectivity solutions.The Nordic countries are frontrunners when it comes to electric aviation.However,before NEA these were stand-alone efforts.The idea behind NEA was that by combining and coordinating individual efforts,the Nordic countries could take a leading position in the transition to electric regional air travel worldwide.This development presents an important opportunity for Nordic business and innovation.Individually,the Nordic countries are small,and to have a truly global impact NEA plays a vital role,bringing the countries and aviation industry together in a cross-border ecosystem collaboration.When working together,the Nordic countries represent the worlds 11th largest economy,which significantly strengthens the regions influence and capabilities.The Nordic countries have all set ambitious sustainability goals.In January 2019,the Nordic Prime ministers signed the“Declaration on Nordic Carbon Neutrality”,committing their countries to strengthening cooperation to attain carbon neutrality domestically.The declaration emphasises the importance of decarbonisation of the transport sector.NEA is a contribution to this work.NEAs mission:To accelerate the shift to electric regional aviation through collaboration.NEAs vision:A connected and vibrant Nordic region empowered by electric aviation.The Nordic Network for Electric Aviation(NEA)Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202418Electric aviation is one of many important contributions to the transition toward zero and low-emission aviation.During the NEA project,the Nordic region has witnessed the emergence of an entirely new aviation industry.The ball started rolling in 2018 when Avinor shared the vision that all domestic short-haul flights should be electric by 2040.Around the same time,the start-up companies Heart Aerospace(Sweden)and Elfly Group(Norway)were founded.The Nordics have been trailblazers in setting national targets for sustainable development.Several specific conditions have made the Nordic countries attractive to the growing electric aviation industry.These conditions include:1.Geography:The geography encourages the development of air transport,as it presents natural obstacles to the construction of road and rail networks.Notable geographic features include the long coastlines of Norway,the abundance of lakes in Finland and Sweden,and the long-stretched archipelagos,mountains,and harsh winter climate in the Northern region,including the islands of Iceland,land,Greenland and the Faroe Islands.2.Energy Infrastructure:The existing energy infrastructure includes access to hydropower,geothermal energy,wind,and solar power plants,creating the cleanest energy mix in the world.Benefitting from this,electric aviation will leave close to zero climate footprint from use in the Nordics.3.Innovative Industries:Nordic industries are innovative,focused on export markets,and able to attract highly skilled talent for research,development and innovation.4.Shared Values:The shared Nordic values encompass openness and willingness to share,as well as traditions for collaboration and progress,making the Nordics a shared platform for innovation.All these circumstances have propelled the Nordic Network for Electric Aviation and have provided the Nordics with a uniqueindustry collaboration.1Norsk luftfart skal bli elektrisk i 2040 NRK Norge Oversikt over nyheter fra ulike deler av landetBackgroundNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202419From the very start,in the first project description submitted to Nordic Innovation,NEA used the 3Cs as explanatory model.The 3 Cs describe both the reasoning behind electric and hybrid-electric aviation,as well as the solutions that electric and hybrid-electric aviation can bring.Let us start with the reasoning behind the need for a change in regional aviation.Climate:Aviation accounts for 2,7%of the global CO2 emissions today,but emissions will grow exponentially if nothing is done(see more details in the table below).Cost:Both regional airliners and airports in the Nordics are burdened by high costs that give low profitability.Airliners also have high maintenance costs,and in some parts of the Nordics there is a decreasing number of travellers.Connectivity:Aviation is growing in major hubs,which leads to underuse of regional airports.NEA believes that electrification can positively impact the 3 Cs.Not only in bringing down emissions,alongside SAF and hydrogen,but also in making flying and sustainable mobility accessible to more people.Electric planes are cheaper to operate and can therefore unlock convenient and effective regional travelling,and help regional airliners and airports make a sustainable profit.A value proposition for regional aviation can be based on the 3 Cs:1.Climate relates to the climate footprint of electric aviation.Operations with close to true zero carbon emissions are possible due to the clean Nordic energy mix.2.Cost relates to the reduced direct operating cost made possible due to the lower maintenance requirements and increased energy efficiency.3.Connectivity relates to benefits for people and businesses from a distributed aviation route system.It includes the rebirth of old regional routes and new regional routes,while enabling faster door-to-door travel times.The world looks different today than in 2019.A fourth bullet point should be added in our reasoning:Resilience.One example of ensuring resilience could be to produce electricity by solar and wind close to the airport instead of using fossil aviation fuel imported from other countries.We have seen evidence that Nordic airliners are struggling.Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA have bought Wider,and Braathens Regional Airlines will fly on contract for Scandinavian Airlines,which in turn was recently bought by KLM and Air France.Climate,Cost and Connectivity the 3 CsNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202420Aviation,with the engines and energy it runs on today,is a threat to a sustainable future.Aviation accounts for 2,7%of the CO2 emissions globally.One could argue that there are other areas we should start with to stay on the path towards 1,5-2 degrees warming,according to the carbon law that was behind the Paris agreement.As can be seen from the table above,air travel has grown in the last decades.Consequently,emissions have increased,even though aircraft themselves have become more fuel efficient.The development came to an abrupt stop during the lockdown,but today the emissions are back to where they were before the pandemic.By 2050,the emissions from aviation are expected to triple.Today only 20%of the worlds population has set foot on an airplane.This will increase as more people can afford flying,as have already started happening in China and India.As other industries are decarbonising,the share of emissions from aviation will increase even more rapidly.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202421This section gives an overview of the state of play in Nordic aviation,highlighting recent developments in each country and trends towards 2030 relevant for electric aviation.Number of airports 2023DenmarkFinlandACInetzero14a 20b20 42030202536.900.00026 000 00033.500.00018 300 000070,1%*Passengers 2019Passengers 2023PSOrouters 2023SAF 2023Pipistrels 20240(airforce 2 2021-23)1IcelandNorwaySweden1 1243 510 322030203020208.000.00054 099 00051 870 000*8.500.00049 015 00034 474 000*625(route areas)1100.5%1,8%*145Aviation in the Nordic countries towards 2030Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202422*Fueling options are provided by fuel companies in Finland.*All Swedish Airports*SAF used on all Swedish airports as proportion of total Jet-A1a Commercial airportsb Airfields(private)Note on Norwegian numbers:Avinor operates 43 airports in Norway.In addition,there are five other airports with commercial flights.The number of passengers reported is passengers in Avinors airports.SAF 2023 shows the percentage of sold fuel at Avinors airports which is SAF.PSO routes:https:/transport.ec.europa.eu/document/download/9168af3e-67c7-430f-b46c-61b76236d8cb_en?filename=pso_inventory_table_2023-02.pdf(17/2-23 for EU countries)Note on Danish numbers:SAF 2023 shows the approx.percentage of sold SAF in CPH Airport and AAL(Aalborg lufthavn).Note on Swedish numbers:Swedavia operates ten airports and 32 are operated by municipalities and regions(two additional privately owned airports exist,not included here).Figures for flown passengers include the 42(10 32)airports mentioned.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202423Overview of Aviation in Denmark 2024-Airports and InfrastructureDenmarks aviation sector consists of 14 commercial airports and 20 private airfields,which include helicopter landing sites for various purposes.Copenhagen Airport(CPH),the largest,is co-owned by private investors and the Danish state and manages Roskilde Airport.Many public airports are operated by municipalities or regions,while smaller airports are privately owned.Major Airports:Copenhagen Airport(CPH),Roskilde Airport(RKE),Billund Airport(BLL),Aarhus Airport(AAR),Aalborg Airport(AAL),Odense Airport(ODE),Snderborg Airport(SGD).Regional Airports:Esbjerg Airport(EBJ),Karup Airport(KRP),Bornholm Airport(RNN).Private Airports:Sindal Airport(CNL),Skive Airport(SQW),Lolland Falster Airport(MRW).Military Use:Airports like Karup and Aalborg serve both civil and military purposes.Airlines Scandinavian Airlines(SAS)is the largest Danish airline,offering both domestic and international routes.Low-cost carriers such as Ryanair and Norwegian are also prominent,alongside regional airlines like DAT and Alsie Express,which serve Denmarks internal connections.Nordic Seaplanes offers seaplane services between Copenhagen and Aarhus ports.Passenger Traffic and TrendsAs the aviation industry recovers from the pandemic,both leisure and business travel are seeing a steady increase.The government and industry players are focusing on reducing the environmental impact of air travel through investments in sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)and the development of electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft.Environmental and Regulatory Initiatives Denmark has set ambitious targets to reduce aviation emissions,with Copenhagen Airport leading efforts towards energy-efficient operations,renewable energy use,and becoming CO2-neutral.In line with national policy,the focus is on promoting safe,efficient,and environmentally sustainable air travel.The government has committed to achieving green domestic flights by 2030,and a passenger tax will be introduced in 2025,starting at DKK 70 per trip and rising to DKK 100 by 2030.Revenue from this tax will support social initiatives and fund sustainable aviation solutions,such as establishing green domestic routes.DenmarkNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202424Technological Advancements and Infrastructure Development The Danish aviation sector is advancing on several fronts:Expansion Projects:Copenhagen Airport is undergoing expansion to accommodate future growth and further strengthen its position as a European hub.Sustainable Aviation Projects:There are multiple projects focused on integrating SAF and preparing for electric aviation.Copenhagen Airport is leading the EU-funded Smart Airport project,ALIGHT,to promote sustainable aviation.Economic Contributions:Aviation plays a vital role in Denmarks economy,supporting employment,tourism,and trade,and serving as a crucial enabler for global business connections.Electric Aviation Denmark is preparing for the introduction of electric aircraft,with projects such as the collaboration between Vridion and Copenhagen Helicopter to establish an electric route between Roskilde and Ls.Nordic Seaplanes is also exploring opportunities to introduce electric aircraft on its routes between Copenhagen and Aarhus.Overview of Aviation in Finland 2024-Airports and InfrastructureFinlands aviation network consists of 24 airports,with 20 managed by the state-owned company Finavia.Helsinki-Vantaa Airport is the countrys largest hub,with Finavia also operating regional airports across Finland,including key locations in Lapland which are vital for tourism.As tourism in Lapland continues to grow,Finavia has invested heavily in upgrading the regions airports.Major Airports Major Airports Helsinki-Vantaa Airport(HEL):Finlands central hub for both domestic and international flights.Regional Airports:Airports in Lapland,including Rovaniemi,Ivalo,and Kittil,play an increasingly important role in Finlands growing tourism sector.Sustainability InitiativesFinavia is at the forefront of sustainability efforts,having achieved net-zero emissions at its airports in Lapland in 2023.It aims to achieve carbon neutrality across all Finnish airports by 2025,ahead of the global target of 2030 set by the Airports Council International(ACI).FinlandNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202425Airlines and Geopolitical Challenges Finnair,Finlands national airline,has historically focused on routes to Asia via Russian airspace.Due to geopolitical tensions,these routes have been restructured,leading to longer flight times and higher fuel consumption.Nonetheless,Finnair is committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2045 and is investing in SAF,research,and new technologies to reduce emissions.Electric and Sustainable Aviation While Finland has no commercial electric flights currently,electric and hybrid aviation could offer a sustainable alternative for short domestic routes.Routes connecting Laplands regional airports or the Helsinki-Tallinn route(approx.90 km)are under consideration for future electric aviation.Hydrogen is also seen as a potential solution for long-haul flights,and Finlands government is positioning the country to become a leader in the hydrogen economy.EU Regulations and National Infrastructure Finland is aligning with the EUs AFIR Regulation,which requires the exploration of electricity and hydrogen in aviation.A national programme to develop the necessary infrastructure for alternative fuels and technologies,including electric aviation,is being prepared and will be submitted to the European Commission in 2024.Overview of Aviation in Iceland 2024-Airports and InfrastructureIcelands aviation sector consists of 13 airports,with Keflavik Airport(KEF)serving as the primary international gateway.In 2023,KEF handled 7.8 million passengers,reinforcing its importance as a central hub for international connections and transcontinental flights.KEF is operated by Isavia ohf.,a public limited liability company owned by the Icelandic state.The airport is committed to the ACI Net Zero 2030 target.A study on Future Fuel Readiness was conducted at KEF to evaluate the steps necessary to prepare the airport for future energy needs.While electric flights will have limited use at KEF,the long-term focus is on hydrogen as a sustainable solution,with sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)acting as a bridge in the short term.Significant expansion of the electric grid will be required to support the energy transition for ground operations.Isavia Regional Airports,a subsidiary of Isavia ohf.,operates under a service agreement with the state and does not receive funding from the parent company.It manages 12 regional airports,including three international airports in Reykjavk,Akureyri,and Egilsstair.In 2023,there were six Public Service Obligation(PSO)IcelandNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202426routes,with two additional PSO routes funded during winter months.Passenger numbers on these routes represent 3-4%of total passengers,with pre-pandemic levels near 800,000 passengers,now reduced to below 700,000 post-2019.Electric Aviation PreparationsBy 2025,Iceland expects the arrival of its first electric training aircraft,which will use small portable charging stations.The country is preparing to establish electric charging infrastructure,starting with sites near Reykjavik.Over the next five years,airport development projects will focus on collaborating with airlines to assess energy needs and update staff training for the changing aircraft fleet.Infrastructure DevelopmentCurrently,electric infrastructure for aircraft is limited to Reykjavk Airport,where a charging station is used for Pipistrel aircraft.This small electric aircraft can reach Selfoss airfield(49 km)and requires about 30 minutes to recharge.Expanding charging infrastructure at domestic airports is essential,especially outside Reykjavk.Isavia Regional Airports will conduct an analysis to assess the energy infrastructure and distribution grids capacity to meet the needs of both small and large aircraft.This development will be crucial for both operational and potential future airports likely to serve electric aviation near urban centres.Icelandair and Future PlansIn 2021,Icelandair signed a Letter of Intent(LOI)with Heart Aerospace for the hybrid-electric 30-seater ES-30.Icelands National Transportation Plan(2024-2038)emphasizes the importance of using advanced technology to connect communities and link Iceland to the rest of the world in an environmentally sustainable way.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202427New Airport DevelopmentNorway is constructing its first new airport since Oslo Gardermoen opened in 1998.The new Mo i Rana Airport is scheduled to open in 2027.In addition,a new airport in Bod,replacing the existing facility,is expected to be completed by 2029/2030.This project is a collaboration between Avinor,Bod Municipality,and the Norwegian Armed Forces.Transition to Fossil-Free FuelsNorway is committed to phasing in fossil-free fuels for aviation,requiring significant infrastructure updates at airports.This includes ensuring the availability of electricity,hydrogen,and other alternative energy carriers.Establishing this infrastructure will demand substantial investment,and Avinor has already begun assessing the power needs at its airports to support future electrification.Avinors traffic light map identifies the costs and timeline for grid connections at different airports,with some projects requiring up to eight years from request to completion.National Transport Plan(2025-2036)The Norwegian Ministry of Transport has established a collaborative forum with the Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise(NHO)and the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions(LO)to guide the green transition in aviation.The development of infrastructure is key to ensuring Norway becomes a test arena for low-emission aviation technologies.Overview of Aviation in Norway 2024-Airports and InfrastructureNorways aviation network comprises 43 airports,managed by Avinor,with additional privately owned airports supporting domestic route traffic.The countrys domestic air traffic is primarily served by SAS,Norwegian,Widere,and Danish Air Transport(DAT).SAS and Norwegian operate routes between major Norwegian airports,while Widere and DAT serve smaller airports,including PSO routes subsidized by the Ministry of Transport.There are 25 PSO route areas in Norway,some covering multiple routes,contributing to a higher total number of PSO routes.In 2023,these PSO routes served close to 1.2 million passengers,representing 8%of all domestic air travel in Norway.Wideres fleet consists primarily of Dash8 aircraft with capacities ranging between 39 and 78 seats.NorwayNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202428Avinor estimates that investments in charging infrastructure and network connection for new aircraft could total NOK 1.6 to 2 billion by 2040,with NOK 740 million required by 2030.Piloting hydrogen technology will incur additional costs,estimated at NOK 250 to 400 million for testing and developing hydrogen refuelling at selected airports.Overview of Aviation in Sweden 2024-Airports and InfrastructureSwedens aviation network includes 42 airports,of which 10 are state-owned and managed by Swedavia,while the remaining 32 are owned by municipalities and regions.The state-owned airports do not cover all of Swedens geographical needs,making municipally owned airports crucial for the countrys crisis preparedness,defence,and ensuring regional growth.National Transport Plan(2026-2037)The Swedish Transport Administrati on is currently working on the National Transport Plan for the 2026-2037 period.This plan will guide the development and management of Swedens aviation infrastructure.Early indications suggest that electric aviation will play a key role in improving the profitability and availability of short-range routes,though airport design and charging infrastructure challenges remain to be addressed.Airlines and SustainabilityIn 2024,Scandinavian Airlines(SAS)and Braathens Regional Airways(BRA)entered into a wet lease agreement,with BRA operating aircraft on key domestic routes in Sweden on behalf of SAS.Both airlines are committed to reducing the environmental impact of air travel and working towards sustainability goals.Fossil-Free Aviation OutlookSwedavia is heavily involved in electric aviation projects,exploring battery and fuel cell-driven aircraft,as well as using hydrogen as a sustainable fuel for jets.These initiatives are part of a broader strategy to promote fossil-free aviation.Swedavia is also assessing the infrastructure needs for future electrification,including ground equipment,vehicles,and hydrogen production on-site.Infrastructure DevelopmentSwedish Regional Airports(SRF)is studying the power needs for their airports and has begun planning to increase capacity through the installation of solar panels.SRF has organized electric flight tours,together with NEA,across Sweden(southern,central,and northern regions)to demonstrate the feasibility of electric aviation.Skellefte Airport is a leader in this space,with a 1MW power supply for charging electric aircraft and plans for a fuel cell hydrogen-powered flight system.SwedenNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202429 Airbus,Vattenfall,Swedavia,Avinor,Stakraft and SAS,have signed cooperation agreements which include mapping of value chains and prerequisites for the introduction of zero-emission aircraft,based on hydrogen in Norway and Sweden.The Nordic Network for Electric Aviation(NEA)is accelerating the transition to sustainable aviation across Denmark,Finland,Iceland,Norway,and Sweden.By focusing on electric and hybrid-electric aviation,each country is contributing to the regions leadership in carbon-neutral transport,driving both technological innovation and regional connectivity.Policymakers should continue to support these initiatives to ensure that the Nordics remain at the forefront of global green aviation.Heart Aerospace:A Swedish PioneerSwedens Heart Aerospace is pioneering the development of hybrid-electric regional aircraft,having raised$145 million to develop the ES-30,a 30-seat hybrid aircraft capable of all-electric flight up to 200 km.With over 550 orders,options,and Letters of Intent(LOIs)from major airlines such as United,Air Canada,SAS,and Braathens,the demand for the ES-30 highlights Swedens potential leadership in the field of sustainable aviation.Nordic initiativesNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202430 Chapter 2:Technical development Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202431The transition to fossil-free aviation affects several areas within aviation,both on the airport and aircraft side.Reduced climate impact and increased sustainability efforts are crucial drivers.New technical solutions are needed.Infrastructure developmentThis transition also includes climate adaptation for infrastructure,such as:More efficient airspace and air traffic services Operations and maintenance of airportsThe development of new types of fuels,including electricity,may mean that airports will take on a new role as energy hubs for the management and distribution of fossil-free fuels.This evolution is evident as airports begin to establish facilities such as solar parks and battery storage.Future airports may thus be energy self-sufficient and also serve as energy suppliers to other sectors,such as transportation.In Sweden Borlnge and rnskldsvik are planning the establishment of battery storage near the airports,and solar energy facilities are under planning at many other airports.However,it is crucial that this development is carried out without disrupting vital technical equipment at the airports.This report is focusing on electric and hybrid electric aviation but in the future it is clear that there is a huge transition of the infrastructure surrounding airports,both physically and digitally.New fuel types,such as electricity and hydrogen,require changes to be delivered to airports safely and efficiently.Additionally,planning is beginning for smaller airports,known as vertiports,to facilitate future transportation with drones and eVTOL.Measures being implemented at airports include:Expansion of electric infrastructure(charging stations)to enable the charging of future electric and hybrid aircraft.Hydrogen infrastructure at airports.Electrification of airport operations.ntegration of eVTOL at airports.Batteries and electric aviation developmentElectric aviation began to take shape in the late 20th century,primarily with small aircraft and drones.The 2000s saw the emergence of experimental electric aircraft,like the Pipistrel Alpha Electro,which demonstrated the feasibility of electric flight on a small scale.2The Swedish aviation authority(Luftfartsverket)states that approximately 6%of aviation emissions can be influenced by the design of the airspace,i.e.,the ATM system.You can divide electric aviation into:Electric aircraftThese include light aircraft like the Pipistrel Alpha Electro,which are powered entirely by electric motors and are primarily used for training and leisure flying.Electric SeaplanesAre usually smaller aircraft.They can be amphibious,landing both on water and land.Examples include NOEMI by Elfly.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202432 Hybrid Electric aircraftThese aircraft combine electric motors with conventional engines,enhancing fuel efficiency and reducing emissions.Examples include the Heart ES-30.Usually used for bigger aircraft for regional aviation.Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing(eVTOL)eVTOL aircraft are designed for urban air mobility,allowing for short,efficient flights in congested areas.In this report we will cover electric,hybrid-electric and electric seaplanes.Resilience in Future AviationA clear trend affecting aviation is the occurrence of disruptions that directly or indirectly impact the system,such as cyberattacks,terorist threats,natural disasters,and pandemics.The development of resilience,the ability to withstand external disturbances,becomes increasingly important and is prioritised moving forward.This is affecting both the airports,but also the need to be self-efficient when it comes to fuel/energy of the aircraft.Battery-electric aircrafts will demand new types of standardised infrastructure on airports.Design regulations are based on international standards owned by the UN division ICAO(International Civil Aviation Organization).Regulations should be incorporated in the national regulations owned by a Civil Aviation Authority.In Sweden,for example,it is Transportstyrelsen(the Swedish Transport Authority).National regulations need to be according to the base line in the ICAO regulation but can also be stricter.In the European Union there exists EU-standards for airport regulations that is common for all EU-member states.National authorities need to adhere to these regulations but can have more strict interpretations than the EU directive.1.Charging development:To sustain profitability,airlines need to keep their quick turn-around times at the airport.With large batteries needing charging,this puts high requirements on the charging infrastructure.Some significant milestones have been achieved for the charging of electric aviation.The Megawatt Charging System(MCS)standard being developed,there will be a cross-sector standard for high power charging,catering to heavy duty vehicles,off-road work vehicles,ships,and aeroplanes.As airports scale up their charging infrastructure,several solutions are made available,from mobile charging trucks with batteries,to fixed charging stations at the stands.Developments show that even airports with low power grid connections can scale up their infrastructure by installing Battery Energy Storage Systems(BESS)and sustainable energy production at the airport to accommodate the increased demand from electric busses,electric trucks and electric aeroplanes with one harmonised solution,without the need for expensive grid connections.Airport infrastructure considerationsNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202433The fast-charging systems for electric cars are a good benchmark for the rapid growth of charging infrastructure.The publicly available fast charging points has seen an exponential growth since 2015.Public charging grew by over 40%in 2023,with fast chargers growing 55%,surpassing slow chargers.By the end of 2023,fast chargers made up over 35%of public charging stock.China leads in EV charging infrastructure,with more than 85%of the worlds fast chargers and around 60%of slow chargers.With over 35%of electric car sales,China focuses on full urban and highway coverage by 2030,including rural areas,aiming for 60%off-peak charging by 2025 in five pilot cities.The European Unions AFIR will mandate public fast chargers every 60 km along main transport routes,ensuring sufficient charging capacity for registered BEVs and PHEVs.Other developed markets,like the UK and Korea,also enhance EVSE support while reducing vehicle incentives,with significant installations and private investment bolstering the sector.EVSE targets are set alongside vehicle targets elsewhere.New Zealand aims for a charging hub every 150-200 km on highways and 600 rural stations by 2028.The United States announced funding to achieve 500,000 chargers by 2030 and ensure existing chargers maintenance.Canada is on track for 33,500 ports by 2026,while India funded over 7,000 fast chargers in 2023.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202434Megawatt Charging at AirportsThe MCS charging standard will be released for commercial use no later than 2025.The standard is developed by Charging Interface Initiative(CharIN),which is an organisation consisting of representatives from manufacturers of charging stations,the automobile industry,grid operators and energy providers.(CharIN,CharIN Whitepaper Megawatt Charging System,2022)CharIN has previously developed the Combined Charging System(CCS)standard,which is the fast-charging standard for electric vehicles,capable of delivering charging power up to 350 kilowatts(kW).This is now the charging standard in Europe.Owing to increased requirements for extended vehicle range,faster charging times,and the adoption of electric buses and trucks,the need for a new high-power charging standard has emerged.Consequently,in 2018,CharIN established a working group dedicated to developing a cutting-edge Megawatt charging standardThe MCS-standard will consist of three different power levels,see table below:For regional electric aircraft,MCS-level 3 will be necessary to enable a turnaround time of 30 minutes.Figure 1:Publicly installed accessible light-duty vehicle charging points by fast chargers and region.Source:https:/www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/trends-in-electric-vehicle-charging MCS LevelCurrent AmperePower MWCooling of handle13500.35No210001Yes330003.75YesNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202435Electrical hardware-Fixed charging stationMegawatt charging can be carried out using either a fixed or mobile charging station.The more extensively investigated approach within the EV industry is the fixed charging solution,which is commonly deployed at gas stations,truck stops,and supermarket parking lots.Fixed MCS charging will be similar to todays EV-charging stations.On the airport premises,the essential equipment consists of a transformer,strategically positioned on the land or airside,designed to handle anticipated peak power demands for charging purposes.This transformer is linked to a switchgear,serving the dual purposes of safeguarding the electrical system against surges and facilitating maintenance of downstream equipment(ASCO Power Technologies,2023).The equipment closest to or on the apron consists of MCS supply equipment and a dispenser.MCS supply equipment are power cabinets that convert AC power from the grid to DC power needed for fast charging.The supply equipment also regulates charging voltage DC/DC.To make power cabinets suitable for Megawatt charging,in comparison to EV fast charging cabinets,it is a matter of scaling power cabinets linearly by size,and dimension cables according to anticipated electrical currents.The dispenser will house the connector and communication system,necessitating its placement near the apron to facilitate efficient charging.Mobile ChargingA mobile charger equipped with batteries may accommodate the MCS supply equipment,dispenser,and stored charging energy in the form of batteries.Given the substantial space required for all these components,a truck serves as the most practical and convenient platform for this purpose.A mobile charger with batteries will charge its onboard batteries slower than it will discharge.This means that the grid connection will be less affected by peak power demands compared to a fixed charging station.An additional advantage is that this charging solution provides flexibility to airports,allowing both conventional and battery electric aircraft to coexist on the same apron.Challenges associated with this solution includes the requirement for a substantial battery capacity installed in the truck to charge the aircraft,the overall weight of the truck,and the certification of the charger dispenser and power cabinets.Another concept for mobile charging involves using a movable truck without onboard batteries.Instead of batteries,this concept relies on a direct connection to the grid via an underground AC or DC supply.In this case,the truck would house the charging dispenser,power cabinets,and,for AC systems,a transformer that converts medium voltage to low voltage inside the truck.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202436Figure 2:Conceptual visualisation of a fixed,semi-mobile and mobile charging solutions,with energy storage(Source:Swedavia)Electric motors:Over the past decade,the development of electric motors has seen a remarkable transformation,transitioning from lower power outputs to the ability to produce over 2 megawatts(MW)of power for electric aviation.Initially,electric motors were limited by their power output and efficiency,making them viable mostly for small-scale applications and short-distance travel.However,continuous research and development efforts have led to substantial breakthroughs in materials,design,and cooling technologies.These advancements have enabled the creation of high-power electric motors capable of supporting larger aircraft and longer flight durations.Notably,cutting-edge programmes such as those funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy(ARPA-E)have been instrumental in pushing the boundaries of electric motor capabilities,paving the way for their implementation in the burgeoning field of electric aviation.Electric motors and batteries have shown considerable promise in terms of efficiency when compared to combustion engines.The efficiency of fossil fuel combustion engines typically ranges from 30%to 40%,while electric motors boast a much higher efficiency range of 90%.In terms of actual propulsion power,this means an increase by almost 4 times.This significant difference underscores the potential for electric aviation to outperform traditional methods in terms of energy utilization.One of the notable advantages of electric aviation is the substantial reduction in noise levels.Electric motors operate much more quietly than combustion engines,leading to a quieter cabin environment and reduced noise pollution around airports and flight paths.Electric motors provide superior torque control,which translates into smoother and more precise handling of aircraft.This enhanced control can improve safety andTechnical advancements in Aircraft Development3 https:/arpa-e.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2023-02/3. Debock_ASCEND PHASE II Program Kickoff and Tech2market meeting feb2nd_public.pdfNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202437performance,making electric aviation a more attractive option for both pilots and passengers.Electric motors are inherently simpler in design compared to complex combustion engines,resulting in fewer moving parts.This simplicity means less wear and tear,leading to lower maintenance requirements and costs over the aircrafts operational life.Modern advancements in battery technology have led to batteries that are not only lightweight,reducing the aircrafts weight by approximately 20%,but also highly efficient,increasing flight ranges by up to 30%and reducing charging cycles to just 1-2 hours.One of the key factors driving these improvements is the significant increase in gravimetric energy density.Historic Battery Evolution:Over the past 20 years,gravimetric energy density has seen remarkable progress,increasing from around 100 Wh/kg in the early 2000s to over 300 Wh/kg today.This tripling of energy density means that modern batteries can store three times more energy per unit of mass than their predecessors.Consequently,this efficiency makes electric aviation more practical and convenient for regular use,enabling longer flights.Looking ahead to 2050,experts predict that continued innovations in materials science and battery design could push gravimetric energy densities beyond 600 Wh/kg.Such advancements would further revolutionize electric aviation,extending flight ranges by an additional 50%to 100%,working towards fully electric routes up to 1500 km by 2050.This future outlook underscores the transformative potential of ongoing research and development in battery technology.Figure 3 shows the historical evolution of cell level energy density from the major battery cell manufacturers.For reference,the targets from different national initiatives are also presented.The data demonstrates the recent trend of a substantial increase in the battery energy density improvement rate as a result of the increased demand for improved battery technology for electric transportation.From 1990 to 2010 the gravimetric energy density improved approximately 5%per year.Since 2010 and the scaling of EVs,there has been a significant acceleration in this trend,with energy density improving more than 10%per year.Figure 4 shows the historical trend of lithium-ion battery annual cost reductions across the period 2010-2018 was-18%.Battery manufacturers and battery pricing are highly dependent on commodity material prices and in 2022,due to global events such as the Russia-Ukraine war,metal commodities including lithium and nickel increased by 20%.Together with supply chain disruptions,this resulted in a 7%increase in battery pricing in 2022(Figure 5).4 Sources:https:/pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2021/ee/d0ee02681f before 2018;BNEF Long-term Electric Vehicle outlook after 2018;https:/rmi.org/the-rise-of-batteries-in-six-charts-and-not-too-many-numbers/#:text=RMI forecasts that in 2030,5.58 TWh per year.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202438Figure 3-Battery gravimetric performance,1990-2030Figure 4:Lithium-ion battery price outlook,2010-2030Lithium-ion battery price outlook indicating technology improvement and significant price reduction over time.Source:BloombergNEF(https:/ Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202439Figure 5:Historical volume-weighted average battery pack prices,2010-2022 Forecast Battery Evolution:Bloomberg New Energy Finance(BNEF)expects battery prices to start falling again in 2024,when lithium prices are expected to ease as more extraction and refining capacity comes online.Based on the updated observed learning rate,BNEFs 2022 Battery Price Survey predicts that average pack prices for automotive and stationary storage applications should fall below$100/kWh by 2026.Although cost drivers,including cell costs will follow the same trend,aerospace packs will include a premium to account for certification costs and lower production volume.Figure 6 presents a summary of the gravimetric energy density(Wh/kg)of the current and next generation battery technologies in production or development,as well as targets set by Japan and China for similar programs as those supported by the European Commission.The horizontal axis plots the fundamental battery cell energy density,and the vertical axis plots the battery pack energy density which accounts for the additional weight required to create a functioning pack,such as the BMS,cooling system,mechanical and electrical integration.The energy density at the pack level is strongly linked to the cells selected,with the battery packing efficiency typically between 60%to 80%by mass.Although some of the programs differ in the expected time to market,they are rather consistent in the achievable performance.Considering 60%to 80%packing efficiency:Current technology(blue column)cells vary between energy densities of 160 to 360 Wh/kg,which achieves 128 to 288 Wh/kg at the pack level.Next Gen 1MW)for battery-electric aircraft.Gathering relevant stakeholders under a common umbrella is a fundamental prerequisite for success.This means that we need to collectively examine the current conditions,potential ways forward,and determine what is required to create a functional and scalable system from a variety of perspectives.These perspectives include technical,economic,safety-and security-related aspects of all components of the system.ELISE3:The project involves the development and realization of an electric aircraft demonstrator,a full-scale 1:1 model of Hearts ES-30.In addition to building the aircraft,the project focuses on optimizing the turnaround process for electric aircraft.This includes the first-ever turnaround test for an electric aircraft of this size.The project will explore how to optimize various aspects of turnaround operations,including charging,battery thermal management,refuelling,passenger boarding,and luggage loading.Additionally,there is a strong emphasis on battery development for future electric aircraft,such as the ES-30.ELFLYSVE:The overall aim of the ELFLYSVE project is to bring more clarity to the potential to realise electric flight in Sweden,both theoretically and practically,which alternative solutions exist,as well as how this might look by 2030.To meet the aim,consideration must be given to several critical aspects that all affect feasibility,where ELFLYSVE includes the system components,electric aircraft,the airspace and the airport.RETAS:In the project,the potential societal and climate benefits of a sustainable regional air transport system in Sweden and surrounding neighbouring countries are being studied.A model will be developed to assess how new flight routes are affected by technology,the number of departures,and ticket prices.Different business models and the need for various regulatory measures will also be evaluated.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202479Roadmap for electric aviation-Gotland:The pre-study on electric aviation in Gotland is focused on promoting sustainable accessibility by air,with a particular emphasis on electric flight.The goal is to identify the steps required to integrate electric aviation in Gotland and create a roadmap for this purpose.The ecosystem,with Heart,Elfly,Swedavia/Visby Airport,Region Gotland,energy companies and local industry and businesses,is working together.EU RDI relevant for the NordicsCEF(Connecting Europe Facility)or the Fund for a Connected Europe is an important source of funding for projects connected to the Trans-European Networks for Transport(TEN-T).CEF provides support for the development of transport networks,for example.CEF could therefore be utilised for Nordic development of infrastructure required for electric aviation.At the EU level,it is important that the revenues from the Emissions Trading System(ETS)are channelled towards advancing the green transition,including the promotion of sustainable aviation.EU funding,which should be better utilised in the Nordics.Ensuring access to infrastructure for electric and hybrid-electric aviation will need to be a key priority for governments and regions that own the airports in the Nordics,to ensure that electric aviation can be operated.This equation is not only about charging infrastructure and preparing for landing and take-off;also access to adequate amounts of clean and renewable electricity is a fundamental requirement.On a governmental,and Nordic,level it will be necessary to develop plans for how aviation fits into overall renewable energy plans.All airports in the Nordics are currently developing plans.This is being discussed and knowledge sharing is taking place in NEA.The WEF(2023)white paper“Target True Zero:Delivering the infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight”,identified that around 90%of the energy and investments required for enabling electric aviation will be required offsite.The ten key insights from this report are outlined below.In addition to upstream infrastructure,new on-airport infrastructure will also be required.The WEF insights can be seen as inspiration for the Nordics:Infrastructure to support electric aviationNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202480To date the Pipistrel is the only certified electric airplane.There are standards under development but there are still uncertainties to be solved.Nordic governmental transport agencies have identified a lack of standards and are not sure about their responsibilities.They need more resources to be able to speed up the work,build knowledge and work alongside the industry to meet our Nordic goals.One example mentioned is that according to EU-regulation it is not possible to demand zero-emission aviation on PSO routes,e.g.electric,in procurement processes.PSO traffic is neutral regarding technical solutions,and electric aviation is thus not explicitly excluded.There are no established rules in place for the operation of these aircraft in commercial markets.The Nordics will work together to solve regulatory issues,in alignment with the Gothenburg declaration.The following issues must be solved:Nordic regulatory reviewNordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.2024811.Aviation regulators will need to consider areas where differences in these aircraft require modification of existing rules and formulas.For example,charging formulas used by airports and navigation service providers to calculate landing and navigation fees are currently based on an aircrafts maximum take-off weight(MTOW).But battery-electric aircraft will be heavier than traditional aircraft,leaving them at a disadvantage under current regulations.One solution to this may be to subtract a factor of the weight of the aircraft battery from its MTOW for the purposes of setting charges.2.There may be a need to update regulations to recognise the existence of battery-electric and hydrogen aircraft.For instance,countries or regions with SAF mandates,sub-mandates for synthetic e-fuels or operating bans may want to update these rules or build in rules from the outset for new regulations,to include operators using battery-electric aircraft or allow these technologies to contribute to meeting the requirements.3.Regulators should ensure that their organisations are prepared for the growing number of new types of aircraft expected in the coming years.Considerations include training sufficient numbers of employees in the skills and knowledge required to regulate aspects of hydrogen or battery-electric aircraft,especially those specialising in aircraft certification.4.It will be important for regulators to determine how best to maintain the same levels of safety without slowing down innovation in the industry.Bilateral aviation safety agreements are one measure that could allow a state without its own rules to use another jurisdictions rules to approve an aircraft for operation within its airspace providing that aircraft has been certified by another regulator.This would avoid the adoption process for aircraft being slowed down by a lack of standards in some countries and in the absence of ICAO standards.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.2024825.There are also non-aviation-specific regulations that may need updating.For instance,health and safety rules for handling hydrogen may need to be reviewed to permit safe use at airports or for refuelling aircraft,along with rules related to transportation of batteries and their recycling.As noted earlier,alternative propulsion technologies can support new aviation business models,such as those enabled by Advanced Air Mobility,to play a role in public transport and provide enhanced mobility options for communities.However,this may require changes to regulations.For example,the definition of public transport used in European Union policies is confined to surface transportation,which would make these aviation applications are ineligible for public transport subsidies.Overview of regulatory organisationsAll the Nordic countries are members of the International Civil Aviation Organisation(ICAO),the UNs aviation agency.ICAO was established as a result of the Chicago Convention in 1944 where 54 states agreed to promote international air travel.ICAO has 193 member states.ICAO offers guidelines through standards and recommended practices(SARPS).NORDICAO is a joint delegation to ICAO working with the mission of working together for safe,secure and sustainable aviation.Denmark,Estonia,Finland,Iceland,Latvia,Norway,and Sweden are members.Nordic representation in ICAO is ensured with the mutually agreed rotation scheme,making sure we continually hold a seat in the ICAO Council.The current representative candidature is Iceland,led by Valds sta Aalsteinsdttir.Founded in 1955 as an intergovernmental organisation,the European Civil Aviation Conference(ECAC)seeks to harmonise civil aviation policies and practices amongst its Member States and,at the same time,promote understanding on policy matters between its Member States and other parts of the world.It has particularly valuable links with industry and organisations representing all parts of the air transport industry.ECAC works closely and cooperatively with other regional organisations and individual Partner States on a range of civil aviation issues of common interest,including safety,security,facilitation and the environment.EUROCONTROL is a pan-European civil-military organisation with 41 member states focusing on air traffic management.EUROCONTROL is one of the founding members of the Single European Sky ATM Research(SESAR)project,a research and innovation programme working towards integrating European airspace in order to become more sustainable,time-and cost efficient.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202483European Union Aviation Safety Agency(EASA)is the EUs flight safety agency with 31 member states.The Management Board brings together representatives of the Member States and the European Commission.The Management Board is responsible for the definition of the Agencys priorities,the establishment of the budget and for monitoring the Agencys operation.European Free Trade Association(EFTA)Member States(Norway,Iceland,Switzerland and Liechtenstein),do however not have voting rights.EASA issues laws and regulations,design certification,and is responsible for standardisation between countries and performs audits in this regard.An overview of the regulatory frameworks is part of NEAs work plan.EASA is also coordinating efforts within several working groups.AZEA(Alliance for Zero-Emission Aviation)and the Sub Working Group 4 is specifically focused on the industry-wide structuring of standardization efforts.Its main objective is to identify standards required to support the certification of hydrogen and electric aircraft,associated air and ground operations and the infrastructure required to support them.A forthcoming regulatory report from NEA includes the following overview of actors and responsibilities:Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202484DenmarkThe Danish parliament has decided to introduce a passenger tax starting in 2025.Half of the passenger tax is planned to be returned to the aviation industry assupport for a transition to a more sustainable aviation sector in Denmark.It is now upto the regulatory authorities to ensure implementation of the agreed support.Initially,the authorities are tasked with establishing a tender process regarding a Danishdomestic route.In the next phase,the regulatory authorities must establish a processover the next 5-6 years where the other support funds must go to development initiatives that will contribute to making all Danish domestic aviation independentof fossil fuels.Here it is possible that support can be allocated to the development orcommissioning of,for example,electric aircraft.The Danish authorities cooperate with all the Nordic countries regarding the work and representation in ICAO.As a member of the EU,the Danish regulators are currently working to ensure a correct implementation of RefielEU Aviation and RED III in Danish legislation.In addition,the Danish Transport Agency is working on the State Action Plan task,which is a task that all countries must carry out in relation to ICAO.A task that must be carried out every three years.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202485FinlandFinland supports the ICAO and EASA objective to create a standardisation basis for electric aircrafts.EU regulation is the most important level of regulation for aviation.The background interviews highlighted the importance ofEU legislation and international cooperation in promoting sustainable aviation,as international regulation steers the aviation sector atthe national level.At the national level,the Finnish Transport and Communications Agency,Traficom,is responsible for air transport regulation in Finland and monitors compliance with international regulation.At the EU level,a key regulatory tool is ReFuel EU Aviation which aims to reduce the carbon footprint of aviation as part of the EUs Fit for 55 package.The ReFuel EU Regulation focuses specifically on SAF,setting out minimum requirements for its distribution.However,in the regulation it is noted that ReFuel EU Aviation has the potential to contribute to the development of electric and hydrogen-powered aviation as well.(European Commission 2023).Another central EU-level regulation is the AFIR Regulation,which obliges EU Member States to consider the role of electricity and hydrogen in aviation.Finlands national implementation of ReFuel EU Aviation and AFIR Regulation is currently underway.It should also be noted that EU legislation applies to airports used by commercial air traffic.If commercial electric aviation routes were to be opened at airports where there have been no commercial operations to date,they would also be covered by EU legislation.This would require significant investments in infrastructure,services,and personnel,among other things(Traficom 2022).IcelandThe ministry of infrastructure and the Icelandic Transport Authority will develop regulations and standardise requirements for electric aviation.This work is entirely based on the approvals of international and European aviation authorities,such as the European Union Aviation Safety Agency(EASA),to utilise common certification.Aircraft that fall under EASA airworthiness regulations shall be classified according to Commission Regulation(EC)No 748/2012(EASA Part 21)on the airworthiness and environmental certification of aircraft.Icelandic aviation laws and safety regulations follow changes made to these laws and regulations.The registration of the first Pipistrel electric aircraft was possible because the authorities,the Icelandic Transport Authority,were able to follow the Norwegian model for airworthiness for that type.To work on the implementation of new regulations,the government,Isavia,and the airlines need to cooperate on the electrification of domestic aviation.It is still unclear how the regular review of pilot licences will be conducted and how training for electric aviation will be managed.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202486NorwayThe Norwegian aviation law regulates both civil and military aviation activities,in which there are requirements to environmental compliance.Norway implemented a CO2 tax on domestic aviation in 1999.26 The CO2 tax aims to reduce the carbon footprint of domestic air travel by making it more costly to emit carbon dioxide.This financial incentive encourages airlines to adopt more efficient and sustainable technologies and practices.According to Norways aviation strategy,the CO2 tax will be progressively increased to NOK 2 000 per ton of CO2 by 2030.Additionally,the passenger tax will be maintained,and the phasing in of SAF will proceed in line with EU plans.The Norwegian Institute of Transport Economics has projected that these combined measures will result in an 8,7%reduction in emissions from domestic flights by 2030 compared to 2023,along with a 3crease in passenger numbers during the same period.27SwedenIt is suggested in the climate action plan to create a collaboration with the EU to ensure regulatory support for the transition to fossil-free aviation.The upcoming national transport plan emphasises some of the hurdles that need to be tackled in order for electric aviation to be realised.Whilst it acknowledges the decline in turboprop flights carrying less than 50 passengers and recognizes that new technologies can enhance profitability and availability by reducing noise levels and enabling the use of shorter runways,it points out that:Identifies the challenges with infrastructure to fast charge electric aircraft,the battery weight MTOW penalty and associated range penalty resulting in potential operating cost uncertainty.Highlights that the aviation industry may be hindered by regulations and a lack of financing which is reinforced by the fact that regional airports today are non-profitable.Mentions that an area where market conditions are weak is in the charging and hydrogen infrastructure on airports.For electric aircraft,there is a risk that the transition will be hindered by the profitability of the aviation industry not being sufficient to finance the necessary investments in charging infrastructure.27 Luftfartsstrategiens klimatiltak:Hvordan pvirkes billettpriser,passasjertall og CO2-utslipp?(toi.no)26 Microsoft Word-VA-rapport nr.2011-5 Utslippskutt i luftfart.docx(regjeringen.no)Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202487The Swedish Transport Administration had been tasked by the government of Sweden with analysing whether there are conditions to set up requirements for electric flights in the procurement of air traffic for lines with public service obligations according to applicable regulations and procurement process.If deemed necessary,The Swedish Transport Administration should also submit proposals for measures that can contribute to an early introduction of electric flights on these lines or some of the lines.The Swedish Transport Administration had already carried out an investigation on behalf of the government in 2020 which would shed light on whether it was possible to set requirements for fossil-free flights in the procurements of air traffic.One conclusion from that investigation was that there is great uncertainty about todays EU rules provide scope for setting requirements for fossil-free alternatives,such as biofuel or electric aircraft.In the current investigation,the Swedish Transport Administration sees no reason to make a different assessment than in 2020 because the conditions are the same,that is,the EU Air Traffic Regulation has not been revised,and that it might be able to enable climate requirements in a procurement.In this investigation,“Frutsttningar fr elflyg i upphandlad flygtrafik”,28 the Swedish Transport Administration has focused on the practical conditions that need to be in place before any legal requirements are meaningful:electric flight must be fully developed and commercialised and available for sale on the market,airlines must be able to see business opportunities to invest in the technology in order to then offer them in the Swedish Transport Administrations procurements,and finally the airports must have adequate infrastructure that enables operations of such flights.28 https:/trafikverket.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2:1863566&dswid=4429Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.20248823 AZEA members,organisation and reports can be found at:https:/defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/eu-aeronautics-industry/alliance-zero-emission-aviation_enInternational collaboration can help accelerate progress through the sharing of knowledge,examples and lessons learned.Some challenges can only be resolved through international collaboration,such as the harmonisation of interoperability of charging and refuelling infrastructure.ICAO promotes harmonisation for international aviation through its SARPs and states are encouraged to support ICAO in its work.In the event that the first battery-electric and hydrogen aircraft pre-date the finalisation of this work by ICAO,leading governments in this space could,as an interim measure,help shape future regulations by working together on a bilateral or multilateral basis.International collaboration can also help to ensure that investments in infrastructure are coordinated so they are delivered in different countries or regions at a similar time to allow international operations.Green corridors and similar initiatives can help develop international markets for these new technologies.In terms of contributing to and receiving international knowledge,both NISA and ALIGHT have European and international partners,in which working together towards common goals is central.A further example is the AZEA (Alliance of Zero Emission Aviation),the biggest European initiative whose main objective is to accelerate the development and deployment of zero-emission aircraft.AZEA was established by the EU commission in 2022.The alliance brings together stakeholders from across the aviation sector,including aircraft manufacturers,airlines,energy providers and airports,to work on the challenges and opportunities associated with zero-emission technologies such as electric and hydrogen-powered flight.Members of AZEA include both NISA and Heart Aerospace.The Alliance focuses on creating the necessary infrastructure,regulatory framework and industry standards to enable the widespread adoption of zero-emission aviation by 2050.This effort is part of the wider European Green Deal,which seeks to reduce aviations environmental impact and support.AZEA is split into six working groups focusing on the following issues:WG1:Aircraft performance characteristicsMarket forecast(traffic,aircraft entry-into-service,penetration rate,etc.)including potential changes to the network topology(e.g.,newregional operations)Energy requirements for electric and hydrogen propulsion as applicable to the different aircraft categoriesBreakdown of the number of flights per market segmentWG2:Electrical energy for battery recharging and green hydrogenCollaboration beyond the Nordics Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202489production and corresponding required electricity generationcapacities for several low-carbon generation technologiesDistribution infrastructure to the aerodromes.Expected Capex Investment for generation(upstream)and distribution(downstream)WG3:Operational considerations related to stand management,turnaround,taxiing operations,ground handling,passenger management,etc.Ground logistics at the airport and impact of the infrastructure availability on the networkWG4:Hydrogen engine emission requirements and timeline for standardization/certificationWG5:This WG has the objective to enable the efficient and sustainable introduction and integration of electric,hybrid-electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft into the European networkWG6:Operational incentives as well as those related to the running costs of electric and hydrogen aircraft.DenmarkDanish authorities as well as airlines and airports have a historic and well-developed collaboration with EASA and ICAO on a wide range of topics.The airlines have membership in various international industry organizations and Copenhagen Airport actively participates in ACI on,among other things,the green agenda.As an initiative of the ALIGHT project and NISA,a Stakeholder Forum will be initiated which will initially bring together relevant actors with a view to preparing the airports to be able to handle electric aircraft,starting with assessing how the airports can adapt in terms of infrastructure.The already mentioned Climate Partnership for Aviation with representatives from all airlines operating in Denmark,Danish airports,Danish Aviation,the Transport Agency,NGOs,NISA and other knowledge organizations has broadly united the industry in the efforts to make joint responses and proposals to the government.FinlandFinnish aviation operators and public authorities are well-networked to international organisations and other international actors.These include,for example,the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO)and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency(EASA).Finland is also an active player in the EU and the exchange of information and dialogue at EU level is considered of great importance.In the Nordic context,stakeholders from Finland,Sweden and Norway have participated in FAIR(Finding innovations to Accelerate the Implementation of electric Regional aviation)and FAIR 2 projects,which aim to promote cross-border electric aviation.The FAIR 2 project is currently ongoing and focuses on increasing knowledge on the demand for sustainable regional electric aviation.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202490The project will run from 1 June 2023 to 30 November 2024 with a budget of EUR 450,430(Kvarken Council,n.d.).Thus,the FAIR 2 project plays a key role in supporting decision making on the development of electric and other forms of sustainable aviation.IcelandUntil now,knowledge acquisition has been driven by individuals with a passionate interest in electric aviation,who have sought information through all possible means.In 2019,NEA was launched under Nordic Innovations Nordic Smart Mobility and Connectivity programme.This demonstrated significant foresight and highlighted the importance of Nordic cooperation for knowledge transfer and information dissemination.In 2022,Nordregio,the University of Akureyri and Austurbr,a non-profit organisation in East Iceland operated by municipalities,universities,professional institutions,and other entities,participated in a collaborative project to map potential domestic flight routes for electric aviation:Electric Aviation and the Effects on the Nordic Regions24.SwedenSwedish stakeholders in the aviation industry are well intertwined in many R&D projects related to electric aviation,some with regional approaches(FAIR and FAIR 2 as well as Green Flyway1 and 2),some with focus on a certain airport such as RESflyg and MODELflyg(Visby and Ume airport)or broader studies with a national and international focus such as ELFLYSVE,FAACE,Air-Charge,ELISE 3,Fossilfritt Flyg i Norden and so on.The drive from airport stakeholders,airline operators and the industry for cooperation and for solving the issues related to fossil free aviation is high.In certain areas our cooperation with airline manufacturers(Heart Aerospace),research institutes(RISE)and academia has led us to be front-runners in certain areas related to battery-electric aviation(such as electromagnetic interference,solutions for the turn-around process).Collaboration with international stakeholders and actors has also helped the Swedish stakeholders push forward with new solution proposals and need for further investigations.However,now we see the need for concrete pilots in airports,with the need for financial support from the government or from other institutions in order to continue our strive towards net zero aviation.Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202491Summary To develop a comprehensive Nordic strategy for electric and hybrid aviation,it is essential to establish an enabling environment that fosters innovation,investment,and collaboration.The key actions for implementation recommended by WEF can guide our efforts in the Nordics:1.Support R&D and Innovation2.Infrastructure Development3.Regulatory Framework Enhancement4.Foster International CollaborationTools:-Regulatory Sandboxes-Financial IncentivesTo create a successful and sustainable electric aviation market in the Nordics,it is imperative that politicians and decision-makers prioritise these strategic actions.By fostering an environment conducive to innovation,investing in necessary infrastructure,updating regulatory frameworks,and enhancing international collaboration,the Nordic region can continue to lead the way in electric aviation.24 https:/nordregio.org/research/electric-aviation-and-the-effects-on-the-nordic-regions/Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202492Chapter 6:Accelerate Uptake with Incentives and Targets Nordic Innovation-Reinventing aviation in the NordicsThe state of electric aviation and the case for enhanced industry-government collaboration.202493Having outlined the necessary changes to create an enabling environment for electric aviation in chapter 5,chapter 6 will go on to explore how incentives and targets can be leveraged to achieve the Nordic goals.The World Economic Forum“Target True Zero Policy Toolkit”report30 highlights the following:To expedite the adoption of alternative propulsion technologies in aviation,it is crucial to implement a strategic framework that includes targeted incentives,mandates,and public awareness campaigns.Key measures for implementation:1.Incentives and Financial Support:Subsidies:Provide financial assistance for renewable electricity initiatives to reduce operational costs for airlines.Low-Interest Loans:Offer favourable loan terms for purchasing or retrofitting aircraft with new technologies,facilitating quicker transitions.Market-Based Measures:Introduce levies on fossil fuel products to create a more competitive environment for sustainable options,making alternative technologies more appealing.2.Mandates and Regulatory Framework:Technology Mandates:Consider establishing requirements for airlines to utilise specific low-emission technologies,which can drive the transition away from traditional,more polluting options.Ecolabelling Initiatives:Promote ecolabelling to enhance public awareness and consumer demand for greener alternatives,thereby encouraging airlines to invest in sustainable technologies.3.Assessment and Feasibility:Before implementing any new policies,states should conduct a thorough assessment of the potential costs and benefits.This ensures that the requirements are feasible and proportionate,taking into account existing aircraft investments and the timelines for new orders.To effectively accelerate the uptake of a
2024-12-29
117页
5星级
Ricardo,Gemini Building,Fermi Avenue,Harwell,Oxfordshire,OX11 0QR,UK|+44(0)1235 75 3000| Registered.
2024-12-29
41页
5星级
Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION1NAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATIONPowered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATIONTABLE OF CONTENTSOPENING LETTER 3INTRODUCTION TO CONNECTED VEHICLES LANDSCAPE 4EXECUTIVE SUMMARY&INTRODUCTION TO THE SURVEY 6RESULTS IN DETAIL THE EVOLVING REALITY OF CONNECTED VEHICLES 8 EXPLORING COMPLEXITIES OF&OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONNECTED VEHICLES 10 THE ROLE OF AI 13 MONETISING CONNECTIVITY 17CONCLUSIONS&KEY TAKEAWAYS 20INTERVIEW:TOM HESLINGTON 25INTERVIEW:MARCO BIJVELDS 27Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION3OPENING LETTERIn todays rapidly advancing technological environment,vehicles are transforming from simple transportation means to sophisticated,connected devices.The merging of technology and mobility has led to vehicles equipped with advanced sensor networks,communication protocols,and real-time data analyticsushering in an era of connected mobility that enhances driving experience,safety,and efficiency on a global scaleThis transformation has created numerous opportunities and challenges that industry stakeholders must navigate to shape the future of connectivity.We are thrilled to present a comprehensive market analysis report,Navigating the future of connected vehicles:Integration,innovation&strategic collaboration.This report provides a deep exploration of the connected vehicle landscape,enriched by the insights of professionals directly involved in this dynamic field.Our objective is to offer insights into the evolving role of connectivity and its impact on drivers,passengers,and communities.The report explores how companies are tackling challenges,including regulatory complexities and the need for collaboration between automotive manufacturers and tech firms.By examining technical advancements,we aim to foster discussions that inspire innovation and strategic partnerships within the automotive sector.We extend our sincere gratitude to those who contributed their experiences,helping us understand the exciting,collaborative path forward for connected vehicles.Alishba JanDivisional DirectorAutomotive IQNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION4Powered byProduced byINTRODUCTION TO THE CONNECTED VEHICLES LANDSCAPEBefore delving into insights from our survey,its essential we set the scene and understand the context surrounding car connectivity.The story of connected vehicles is a fascinating journey that has transformed the automotive industry,reshaped consumer expectations,and redefined the very notion of mobility.Not long ago,cars operated independently of the digital world,focusing on mechanical performance and basic safety features.Communication technology was limited to radios and simple navigation systems.The idea of interactive,connected vehicles was once purely speculative.However,as the internet revolution took hold and smartphones became ubiquitous,the expectation for seamless connectivity infiltrated every aspect of our livesincluding our time on the road.Consumers began to desire the same level of connectivity in their cars that they experienced with their phones and computers.The automotive industry,recognising this shift,embarked on a path toward integrating digital technology into vehicles.The initial steps were modest but significant.Bluetooth connectivity allowed for hands-free calling and audio streaming,bringing the first taste of integration between personal devices and vehicles.Infotainment systems started to appear,offering touchscreens,navigation,and limited app integration.These features began to blur the lines between traditional vehicles and digital devices.As wireless technology advanced,so did the possibilities for in-car connectivity.The introduction of 3G and 4G networks enabled vehicles to connect to the internet,opening up a new realm of features such as real-time traffic updates,over-the-air software updates,and remote diagnostics.Telematics systems emerged,providing services like emergency response,vehicle tracking,and maintenance alerts.Today,the connected vehicle landscape is a complex and rapidly evolving ecosystem.Cars are no longer just mechanical toys-theyre sophisticated computers on wheels.Equipped with an array of sensors,processors,and communication interfaces,modern vehicles can interact with their environment in ways that were unimaginable just a few years ago.The rise of technologies like the Internet of Things(IoT),Artificial Intelligence(AI),and machine learning has accelerated this transformation.Vehicles can now communicate with other vehicles(V2V),infrastructure(V2I),pedestrians(V2P),and networks(V2N)collectively known as Vehicle-to-Everything(V2X)communication.This connectivity enhances safety through collision avoidance systems,optimises traffic flow,and contributes to more efficient energy use.Consumer demand has been a significant driver of this evolution.Todays drivers expect their cars to seamlessly integrate with their digital lives.Features like advanced infotainment systems,smartphone integration through platforms like Apple CarPlay and Android Auto,and personalised user settings have become standard in many new vehicles,driven by consumer expectations.One of the most exciting aspects of the connected vehicle landscape is its intersection with autonomous driving.Connectivity is a foundational element for self-driving cars,enabling them to communicate with their environment and make informed decisions in real-time.Advances in connectivity are accelerating the development of autonomous vehicles,bringing us closer to a future where cars can navigate roads with little or no human intervention.Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION5As a conclusion,weve arrived at this point through a combination of technological innovation,consumer demand,and strategic industry collaboration.Vehicles have evolved from isolated machines into integrated platforms that enhance our lives in many ways.As we stand on the cusp of even greater advancements,understanding this landscape is crucial.The challenges are significant but not insurmountable.Through continued innovation,collaboration,and a focus on delivering value to consumers,the automotive industry is poised to navigate these complexities successfully.In the chapters that follow,well explore the findings of our industry-wide survey,which provides deeper insights into how industry professionals perceive the current state of vehicle connectivity.Well examine the strategies companies are employing to overcome challenges,the partnerships theyre forming,and the innovations theyre pursuing.By setting the scene with this overview,we aim to provide context that enriches your understanding of the survey results and the broader trends shaping the future of connected vehicles.Its a story of progress,challenges,and the relentless pursuit of a more connected and efficient worlda journey that continues to unfold with each technological breakthrough and collaborative effort.Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION6EXECUTIVE SUMMARY&INTRODUCTION TO THE SURVEYA world where every car communicates seamlessly with its surroundings,enhancing not just the driving experience but redefining mobility itself is not a distant vision but an emerging reality.Understanding the current state of the transformation towards connectivity,as well as the challenges and opportunities it presents,is crucial for defining future strategies towards connected mobility.To provide insight into this complex landscape,we conducted a comprehensive survey among 165 industry professionals,all of whom are directly involved in their organisations connected vehicle programmes.The results of this survey are both revealing and reassuring.Connected vehicles are no longer seen as an emerging trend but as a central pillar of automotive development.From the boardroom to the R&D labs,companies across the sector are fully aware that connectivity is a key part of their future.But while the destination is clear,the road to full connectivity is packed with challenges that the industry must navigate carefully.The survey reveals a complex terrain with several potholes that must be carefully avoided.One of these potholes is related to regulations and compliance.Companies are grappling with a heap of laws and standards that vary by region,making it difficult to develop solutions that are both innovative and compliant on a global scale.Cyber security threats loom large as well.As vehicles become more like computers on wheels,theyre increasingly vulnerable to hacking and data breaches.This not only risks the safety of drivers but also erodes trustan essential component for the widespread adoption of connected technologies.Automotive companies are investing heavily in cyber security measures,but the fast-evolving nature of cyber threats means this is a race that requires constant vigilance.The financial investment required for developing advanced connectivity features is another significant challenge.The costs can be staggering,especially when factoring in the need for continuous updates and the infrastructure to support them.This is a particular strain for smaller companies or those with tight margins,forcing these companies to make tough decisions about where to allocate resources.Perhaps one of the more subtle challenges revealed by the survey is the struggle to clearly demonstrate the added value of connected vehicles to end customers.While the technology offers numerous benefitsfrom real-time traffic updates to enhanced safety featurescommunicating these advantages in a way that resonates with consumers is no easy task.Theres a gap between what the technology can do and what customers understand or perceive as valuable,and bridging that gap is essential for driving widespread adoption.Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION7But throughout all the issues there is a silver lining for both organisations big or small.The rise of connected vehicles is driving strong collaboration between major industry players and various tech companies from fields such as IoT and telecommunications.This cross-industry support enables the automotive sector to broaden its horizons and benefit from diverse expertise.The survey that we have conducted shows clearly that this collaboration potential is well recognised in the industry,highlighted as one of the biggest strategic opportunities that companies foresee in the next 2-5 years.The potential for monetising car data is another exciting avenue.Vehicles generate a wealth of information that,if harnessed responsibly,can lead to improved services,better vehicle performance,and even new revenue streams.Companies are exploring ways to use this data to enhance customer experience while navigating the important considerations of privacy and security.Ultimately,the survey offers a balanced view of where the industry stands today.On one hand,theres a widespread acknowledgement of the importance of connectivity,and significant strides have been made in integrating these systems into vehicles.On the other hand,there are still major challenges to overcome,particularly around regulation,cyber security,monetisation and consumer perception.What is clear,however,is that the connected vehicle space is full of potential.As companies continue to innovate and collaborate,the landscape will likely evolve quickly,unlocking new opportunities and reshaping the way we think about transportation.The journey may be complex,but the destinationa future where connected,autonomous vehicles are the normis undeniably within reach.This survey was conducted from 26th July to 7th September 2024 and published in December 2024.NAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION8Powered byProduced byTHE EVOLVING REALITY OF CONNECTED VEHICLES What we see painted in front of us is a picture of an industry in motion,where connected vehicles are more than just an ideathey are an evolving reality.The push towards connected capabilities shows a desire to not just transform the vehicles themselves,but to transform the very experience of driving,owning,and interacting with a car.Connectivity isnt just a technological shift;its the beginning of a new way to think about what it means to drive.we dive deep into the survey results,its clear right from the onset that automotive organisations worldwide are embracing vehicle connectivity with high enthusiasm and adoption rates.This is reflected not only in the high levels of awareness surrounding company strategies for connected cars but also in the widespread recognition of its importance.Over 40%of respondents view connectivity as an essential component of their business strategy for the next one to two years.Connectivity isnt just an option anymore;its core to how companies envision the future of automotive innovation and competitiveness.70%of survey respondents indicated a positive stance towards the integration of connected vehicles.This enthusiasm highlights their importance of connected vehicles in digital transformation,competitiveness,revenue generation,and enhancing customer experience.Yet,as with any industry shift,not everyone is moving at the same pace.A cautious minority-11%of participants are in a“wait and watch”mode,suggesting that while they are open to the idea,they are cautious,preferring to see more developments before fully committing.Additionally,limited opposition remains,with about 12%expressing reservations,primarily due to customer demand,willingness to pay,and concerns about data privacy.This mix of forward momentum and hesitation reflects an industry grappling with a change of this scale.When we look at the current landscape of adoption,its clear that while a fully connected future is within reach,were still in the early stages.Only a fraction of vehicles on the road today are truly“connected.”Nearly half of the respondents said that only 21-40%of vehicles manufactured/sold by their organisations are currently equipped with connected capabilities,while around 28%indicated an even lower adoption rate of just 0-20%.This places the majority of respondents in the early to moderate phases of adopting connected vehicle technologies,with only a small proportion(less than 10%)having reached a high level of integration(81-100%).The industry is in a transitional phase,where technology and infrastructure are ramping up to meet the increasing expectations.The journey towards full connectivity is very much alive,but its also unevensome brands are already taking bold steps forward,while others still have one foot firmly planted in the traditional automotive model.Responses from the industry survey suggest that while there is momentum towards this technology,the current adoption rates show that full integration across all vehicles is still some way off for most organisations.Interestingly,the type of connectivity also tells a story of diverse strategies.The survey revealed that 42%of respondents are deploying a combination of Bluetooth and cellular technologies,leveraging Bluetooth for in-car communication and cellular to keep the vehicle connected to the broader digital world.This preference for multiple connectivity options suggests that companies are looking for flexibility and the ability to offer both short-range and wide-area connectivity.Meanwhile,around 29%are opting for a cellular-only strategy,and some are experimenting with satellite connectivity for even broader coverage,with 19%using satellite in combination with cellular.However,satellite connectivity is not used as a standalone option,likely due to its higher cost,limited bandwidth,or the niche nature of its use cases,such as remote areas.Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION9OVER 40%OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS VIEW CONNECTIVITY AS AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT OF THEIR BUSINESS STRATEGY FOR THE NEXT 1-2 YEARSPowered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION10These mixed approaches underline a pragmatic industry,one that recognises theres no one-size-fits-all solution in the evolving connectivity puzzle.Instead,the industry is building a layered network to ensure that vehicles remain connected,whether parked in a garage,cruising the highway,or driving through remote landscapes.What kind of connectivity is part of your overall connected vehicle strategy?What percentage of your vehicles are currently equipped with connected capabilities?Are connected vehicles an integral part of your 12-24 months business strategy?*Bluetooth&Cellular 42%Only Cellular 29llular&Satellite 19%Only Bluetooth 10%0-20$!-40FA-60a-80%9-100%8%YES,it is the only way to maintain com-petitivenessYES,it helps us unlock new revenue streams by monetizing data&insightsYES,it is an integral part of our digital transformation strategyYES,it is central to our Customer Experience strategyNO,it is still evolving,and we are in a wait and watch modeNO,my customers are not demanding for it or willing to pay for itNO,we are concerned with the data and privacy issues related to itOther*multiple choice41B7%5%3%3$F%9%8B)%NAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION11Powered byProduced byEXPLORING COMPLEXITIES OF&OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONNECTED VEHICLES We focus next on the complexities and opportunities surrounding the implementation of connected vehicle technologies.As automotive organisations push forward with their plans,theyre not just facing straightforward challengestheyre navigating nuanced realities that influence how easy or difficult it is to bring these innovations to life.Nearly 17%of respondents found integrating connectivity into vehicles to be somewhat or very difficult,which highlights some of the persistent challenges the industry faces today.Despite enthusiasm for connected vehicles,real-world implementation still brings significant hurdles.Issues like fragmented standards,compatibility across various systems,and navigating different communication protocols add complexity to the process.These challenges indicate that while the benefits of vehicle connectivity are clear,turning that vision into reality isnt easy.Automakers must tackle these barriers head-on,finding ways to streamline integration and develop technologies that can work seamlessly across different environments.This part of the journey is crucial,as true connectivity will only be realised when every component,from hardware to software,works in harmony.The survey data reveals a diverse range of experiences when it comes to incorporating connectivity,with responses spread relatively evenly across different levels of ease and difficulty.Notably,a significant 40%-respondentsfind the integration process difficult,suggesting that many companies still dont have the necessary capabilities or resources to manage the implementation.Out of these,around 20%respondents face significant challenges,often related to technical complexities,infrastructure,cost,or integration issues.This split suggests that while progress is being made,there remains a substantial proportion of organisations that need support to fully realise the potential of connected vehicles.The benefits,however,make these efforts worthwhile.Enhanced driver safety emerged as the standout advantage,topping the list with nearly 40%of participants ranking it as their number one benefit.Improved vehicle performance followed,underscoring the belief that connectivity directly leads to better,smarter vehicles.New revenue streams,driven by data monetisation,came in next.Its clear that companies are not just thinking about making vehicles bettertheyre also considering how connectivity can open up new business models.Customer satisfaction and retention featured prominently too,as organisations increasingly view connected technologies as a way to enhance the drivers experience,offer personalised services/recommendations,and build stronger customer relationships.Cost savings in maintenance and better data for R&D also received attention,but they were less prioritised compared to safety,performance,and revenue opportunities.How easy or difficult is it for you today to incorporate connectivity into your cars/vehicles?Very easy 18%Somewhat easy 36%Neutral 28%Somewhat difficult 14%Very difficult 46(%4%NAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION12Powered byProduced byThis analysis highlights that enhanced driver safety remains paramount,with customer satisfaction,improved vehicle performance,and new revenue streams also serving as key motivators.This reflects a customer-centric approach and a focus on vehicle efficiency.In contrast,better data for R&D and cost savings in maintenance are seen as secondary benefits,suggesting a greater emphasis on value creation and customer experience over purely operational efficiencies.This brings us to an essential piece of the connectivity puzzlethe service providers themselves.The automotive world doesnt just rely on in-house solutions;connectivity hinges on partnerships,which means choosing the right connectivity service provider is vital.When asked if they were happy with their current provider,the responses painted a varied picture.Around 44%of respondents were content with their provider,feeling no need for change.However,nearly 56%expressed some level of dissatisfaction,citing issues ranging from limited global coverage to a lack of speed and agility in service delivery.Others were unhappy with limited support,lack of interoperability,and a shortage of additional capabilities like AI-driven insights and analytics.This reveals mixed satisfaction levels among respondents.This reveals a clear dividewhile some automakers are happy with the status quo,others are actively searching for something better,something more adaptable to the evolving landscape of connected vehicles.What are the top benefits you see from implementing connected vehicle technologies?102345RankEnhanced driver safetyImproved vehicle performanceNew revenue streamsCustomer satisfaction and retentionBetter data for R&DCost savings in maintenance and operationsAre you happy with your current connectivity service provider?YES,everything is great,and we are not looking to change 44%NO,their coverage is not truly global 16%NO,we are not able to maintain speed and agility while working with them 11%NO,my current provider does not have additional capabilities like AI analytics and insights,360-degree view of our deployments,outcomes-driven approach etc.18%NO,they do not support interoperability 4%NO,their support and services do not match our expectations 2%Other 5%4.383.553.933.942.962.2444%4%2%5%Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION13OVER 56%OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS ARE DISSATISFIED WITH CURRENT CONNECTIVITY SERVICE PROVIDERNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION14Powered byProduced byThe data shows mixed satisfaction levels,with a significant proportion of respondents unhappy with their current connectivity service providers due to coverage,capabilities,performance,and support.There is also a notable demand for advanced features and truly global reach,as many companies look for more comprehensive and innovative solutions.Issues related to performance,agility,and interoperability further underline the technical challenges some organisations face with their connectivity services.This analysis reveals a demand for advanced features and global reach.Overall,this points to a market need for service providers that can offer robust,feature-rich,and globally reliable services.So,what factors matter most when selecting a connectivity service provider?The survey revealed that the most important factors in choosing a good provider are reliability,security,and cost.46%of survey respondents have prioritised reliable connectivity,as no one wants a connected vehicle that cant stay connected.Security is also critical,with around 57%highlighting the need for robust security features and protocols.Cost remains a key consideration,with 48%of respondents assessing pricing structures when selecting their partners.Additionally,compatibility with existing systems and the ability to meet compliance standards were identified as important factors.What are the most important factors you consider when selecting a connectivity service provider for your vehicles?Reliability and uptime of the serviceSecurity features and protocolsCost and pricing structureCompatibility with existing vehicle systemsRange of features and services offeredCustomer support and service level agreements(SLAs)Ability to provide services and connectivity globallyReputation and experience in the industryAbility to deliver on security and compliance regulationsOther*multiple choice46WHE87&2%2%Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION15OVER 54%OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS FEEL AI WILL HAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLESNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION16Powered byProduced byInternet of Things(IoT)THE ROLE OF AIAIs role in connectivity is transforming vehicles into dynamic extensions of our digital lives.These vehicles are becoming personalised environments that adapt to routines,anticipate needs,and connect seamlessly with the broader smart ecosystem.As we dig into the next section of the survey,its clear that Artificial Intelligence(AI)along with ADAS and 5G will play the biggest role in shaping the future of connected vehicles.This reflects a focus on technologies that enhance vehicle connectivity,safety,and intelligence.These technologies are crucial for the evolution of autonomous driving,real-time communication,and enhanced customer/driver experience.Automotive professionals are looking to AI as the driving force behind a new era of mobility,with 54%of respondents identifying it as having the most significant impact.AIs transformative potential goes beyond just adding intelligence;its about making vehicles adaptive,personalised,and proactive.From enhancing predictive maintenanceanticipating problems before they occurto optimising vehicle performance in real-time,AI is poised to revolutionise how cars operate and how drivers interact with them.5G and advanced connectivity follow closely,with about half of survey participants seeing its impact as crucial.While AI drives intelligence,5G provides the backbone for reliable communication,making it possible for vehicles to stay connected and benefit from real-time data exchange.Together,these technologies create a powerful synergyAI making sense of data,and 5G ensuring that data flows seamlessly.This combination is seen as the fuel that moves the ship forward,enabling everything from improved telematics to seamless over-the-air(OTA)updates.Which emerging technologies do you believe will have the most significant impact on the future of connected vehicles?*Other*multiple choice5G and advanced connectivity50%Artificial intelligence and machine learning54ge computing40%Blockchain for secure transactions33vanced Driver Assistance Systems(ADAS)52)%3%NAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION17Powered byProduced byHowever,along with these innovations come significant challenges that automotive companies are striving to overcome.Approximately 45%of respondents pointed to regulations and compliance requirements as major obstacles,complicating the consistent deployment of AI-driven connected solutions across different regions.Navigating this regulatory maze is critical for unlocking the full potential of connected vehicles,yet it remains a persistent hurdle.Cyber security,is another prominent concern.38%of respondents worry about the evolving threat landscape and vulnerabilities associated with increasingly connected and intelligent vehicles.Ensuring that these systems are safeguarded from threats is essential not only for the security of data but also for maintaining consumer trust.This challenge is further amplified by the complexities of working with multiple solution providers,as indicated by 28%of respondents,and the high cost of development,noted by 22%.Moreover,the integration of connected solutions into existing vehicle architectures presents additional difficulties.About 38%of survey participants cited integration as a significant barrier,underlining the technical challenges involved in adapting legacy systems to work seamlessly with cutting-edge connected technologies.These issues make it clear that while the benefits of AI and connected solutions are transformative,their implementation is fraught with complexities that require careful planning and collaboration across the industry.Automotive companies must prioritise robust security measures,regulatory compliance,and strategic partnerships to overcome these challenges and fully harness the power of connectivity to drive innovation forward.OTA procedures are where AI and connectivity intersect to truly reshape the automotive landscape.AI is playing a crucial role in optimising this process,from predicting the best times to push updates to ensuring seamless integration with existing vehicle systems.Despite the promise of OTA technology,the industry is still working to perfect it.Currently,only 14%of respondents report a high success rate(76-100%)for OTA downloads,while 43%experience moderate success rates and 17%report low success rates.This signals a clear opportunity for improvementparticularly in infrastructure and AI-driven optimisation.A stable,reliable OTA process is key to delivering the promise of true connectivity,ensuring vehicles are always up-to-date,secure,and equipped with the latest features.Proof points around advantages of connectivity for vehiclesWorking with multiple partners/solution providersProven expertise by solution providers across the globeShowcasing the value of connected cars to our end customersCybersecurity threatsIntegration with existing vehicle architectureSoftware updates and maintenanceCost of development*multiple choiceLack of clarity around our organi-sational strategy24)C%Varied regulations and compliance landscape45%8%What are the most significant challenges you face when deploying connected solutions for your vehicles?Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION18TOP 3 DEPLOYMENT HURDLES1.COMPLEX REGULATORY&COMPLIANCE REQUIREMENTS2.DIFFICULTY WORKING WITH MULTIPLE PARTNERS3.EVOLVING CYBER SECURITY RISK&THREAT LANDSCAPEPowered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION19Encouragingly,there is a strong appetite for better performance.A striking 67%of survey participants are willing to invest more to increase OTA success rates,highlighting the industrys commitment to overcoming these challenges.This eagerness reflects a shared vision of leveraging AI to enhance connectivity,keeping vehicles not only functional but ahead of the curve in terms of innovation and safety.As the survey provides mixed results when it comes to OTA,the following recommendations provide a roadmap for organisations looking to improve their OTA success rates and unlock the full potential of this technology.For those experiencing low OTA success rates,where only 0-25%of updates are completed successfully,the first step is to identify and address the root causes.This often involves a detailed review of the OTA infrastructure.By evaluating the reliability of the networks used for updates and scrutinising the update mechanisms,organisations can pinpoint the specific areas that need improvement.Whether its a network bandwidth issue or a glitch in the update process itself,understanding the problem is the first step towards resolving it.For companies that are unsure of their success rates or are unaware of where issues may be occurring,it is vital to enhance monitoring and reporting systems.Investing in tools that provide clear visibility into OTA performance will allow organisations to quickly identify problems as they arise.These tools will not only highlight the technical issues but will also provide data on where and when updates fail,making it easier to address these challenges proactively.Interestingly,some organisations are already achieving high success rates of 76-100%.For those in this position,there is an opportunity to share best practices with companies facing difficulties.The exchange of knowledge within the industry could help lift overall performance,allowing more organisations to achieve smoother,more reliable OTA updates.Collaboration and transparency in these areas could significantly elevate the standards across the board.For organisations in the 26-50%success range,the path to improvement lies in continuous improvement.Ongoing optimisations in deployment strategies,network management,and update processes can help reduce the number of failed updates and push success rates higher.This is not a quick fix but an approach that requires dedication to evolving with technology and constantly improving systems.Additionally,support and training are critical.Providing training and resources to teams responsible for OTA deployment and troubleshooting can lead to better outcomes.Equipping staff with the knowledge and tools they need to manage OTA updates effectively will naturally result in higher success rates.What is the success rate you are experiencing with OTA downloads for your connected vehicles?0-25& 50DQ-75v-100%Dont know 13D%Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION20Beyond the technical recommendations,there is also a need to highlight the return on investment(ROI)for organisations willing to invest in improving their OTA infrastructure.For many,the initial costs may seem daunting,but the long-term benefitsfewer manual interventions,improved customer satisfaction,and cost savingscan more than justify the expense.Demonstrating the potential ROI can help decision-makers see the value of these improvements and encourage investment in better OTA processes.For organisations that are more hesitant to invest,focusing on the value of enhanced OTA capabilities is key.Often,presenting case studies or data that showcase the operational efficiencies and reduced downtime resulting from higher OTA success rates can help shift perspectives.Its about framing the investment not just as a cost but as a crucial step toward greater efficiency and reliability.Offering flexible solutions can also bridge the gap between organisations that are eager to invest and those that are more cautious.By providing tiered or scalable options,organisations can choose the level of investment that best suits their budget and needs.This approach allows companies to start small and scale up as they begin to see the benefits of improved OTA performance.Are you willing to pay additional costs for increasing the remote OTA success rate?67%YesNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION21Powered byProduced byMONETISING CONNECTIVITYAs we move further into the survey results,its only natural to also focus on how automotive companies are navigating the economics in the context of the evolving role of connected vehicles.The focus in this final part of the survey has shifted beyond just integrating technologyits centred on how to monetise connectivity,sustain these advancements,and balance the associated costs effectively.The conversation is about turning connectivity into a profitable part of the business while ensuring that it remains a value-add for the customer.When it comes to managing the costs of connectivityparticularly consumer and infotainment datathe industry is taking a varied approach,with many leaning towards cost-sharing strategies.The largest group,about 48%,aim to apply a mixed cost-sharing approach,with plans to absorb these costs themselves and passing it to their customers.This approach acknowledges that while consumers value connected features,theres a practical limit to what they are willing to pay directly,therefore indicating a trend towards finding a middle ground that can balance financial responsibility and customer affordability.However,this approach comes with its own challenges.Cost-sharing might lead to potential confusion over whats included and whats not,and customers may be put off by additional fees that werent previously part of their vehicle ownership experience.The risk is that if not communicated clearly,shared costs could reduce the perceived value of connected services.In contrast,around 25%of participants plan to absorb all the connectivity costs themselves,using it as a customer value propositionessentially treating it as an embedded feature that adds to the overall appeal of the vehicle,and differentiate in an otherwise crowded market.Meanwhile,15%intend to pass all the connectivity costs onto their customers,treating it as an optional feature rather than an embedded benefit.These varying approaches highlight that there is no universal solution,some prioritise customer satisfaction and competitive differentiation,while others focus on cost recovery.,and companies are experimenting to find the right balance between offering value and managing costs in a way that appeals to their market.Do you intend to cover the costs for the consumer/infotainment data element of your connectivity solution or are you going to pass this on to your customers?Fully cover ourselves 25%Partly us and customers 48%Fully pass on to our customers 15%Cover ourselves initially and then pass on to our customers after they see the value from it 12%H%NAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION22Powered byProduced byThe evolving role of traditional automotive manufacturers was a key focus in the survey,revealing a shift in how these companies view their future.Nearly 47%of respondents believe that collaboration with tech companies will be essential for driving innovation.As vehicles become more software-defined(Software Defined Vehicles or SDVs)and reliant on complex digital solutions,partnerships with tech firms,particularly in areas such as software development,data analytics,and connectivity,are seen as crucial for staying competitive.This aligns with one of the key recommendations from the survey:traditional automakers should actively foster partnerships with tech companies.By leveraging the expertise of these firms,manufacturers can more efficiently integrate advanced technologies into their vehicles.However,a notable 23%of respondents still believe that traditional automakers can dominate the market through their own innovation.These companies hold on to the belief that their legacy in engineering and in-house research and development(R&D)can drive future growth.The recommendation here is for manufacturers to continue investing in innovation to ensure they remain competitive.Cutting-edge technologies will allow automakers to maintain their market presence while adapting to new consumer demands and technological advancements.Meanwhile,about 25%of respondents envision a shift from product to service-oriented models,focusing on customer experiences rather than just selling cars.This includes the development of new business models,such as subscription services,connected features,and personalised experiences.The recommendation to explore and develop service-oriented business models is key here.Automakers can provide ongoing value to customers through enhanced personalisation,offering tailored services that strengthen customer loyalty and satisfaction.Looking ahead,the survey participants identified several key opportunities in the connected vehicle ecosystem over the next two to five years.Approximately 30%highlighted partnerships with tech companies as the most promising path forward.By emphasising partnerships,traditional automakers can tap into new innovations more rapidly and remain agile in a fast-changing market.Moreover,the development of new mobility services such as ride-hailing and car-sharing was seen as a key opportunity by 28.9%of respondents,as automakers seek to diversify their offerings beyond car manufacturing and explore more flexible,customer-centric solutions.Monetising vehicle data remains a significant opportunity,with around 25%of respondents recognising the potential for turning connected vehicle data into a revenue stream.Developing strategies to monetise vehicle data should remain a priority,even if it is less urgent compared to forming partnerships or developing mobility services.Manufacturers can capitalise on the wealth of information generated by vehicles,turning data into actionable insights for improving services and creating new revenue streams.Interestingly,the expansion into autonomous driving capabilities appeared to be a lower priority for many respondents,with only 5.4%ranking it as the most important opportunity.This is likely due to the technical and regulatory challenges that still hinder widespread adoption.However,manufacturers should not lose sight of these developments and focus on creating trusted value for their customers.Monitoring advancements in autonomous driving remains essential,but resources should be allocated based on the current priority of other opportunities.How do you foresee the role of traditional automotive manufacturers evolving with the rise of connected and software-defined vehicles?We see traditional automotive manufacturers dominating the market through innovation 23%We see more collaboration with tech companies 47%We see traditional automotive manufacturers becoming more service-oriented than product-oriented 25%We see ourselves facing challenges in keeping up with tech advancements 4%Other 1#G%1%4%Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION23Finally,while the survey showed that keeping up with tech advancements is not a top concern for most automakers,it remains important to have strategies for continuous learning and adaptation.The recommendation to address technological adaptation ensures that manufacturers can stay ahead of emerging technologies and incorporate them effectively into their product lines.Additionally,engaging with diverse perspectives from smaller segments of the industry can help automakers understand niche trends and stay adaptable in an evolving landscape.By aligning their strategies with these insightsfocusing on partnerships,investing in innovation,exploring new mobility services,and leveraging datatraditional automotive manufacturers can better position themselves to capitalise on the most significant opportunities in the connected vehicle ecosystem over the next two to five years.Despite the optimism around connected technologies and the opportunities they present,the willingness to fully commit to this future is tempered by some caution.A key insight here is that while many see connected vehicles as integral to their strategy,the practical concerns around costs,the need for tech partnerships,and the uncertainty in fully autonomous development highlight the challenges.The industry knows that connectivity is the way forward,but the pathway is complex and requires careful navigation.What strategic opportunities do you foresee in the connected vehicle ecosystem over the next 2-5 years?102345RankDevelopment of new mobility services(e.g.,car-sharing,ride-hailing)Enhanced customer engagement and experience through per-sonalizationMonetization of vehicle dataPartnerships with tech companiesExpansion into autonomous driving capa-bilities3.433.23.32.1Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION24CONCLUSIONS&KEY TAKEAWAYSThe journey towards fully connected vehicles is filled with both opportunities and significant obstacles.Achieving seamless connectivity requires addressing issues related to integration,cost transparency,and infrastructure reliability to ensure the vision becomes a reality.Integrating connected technologies across different regions and models remains challenging due to fragmented standards,compatibility issues,and inconsistent coordination among stakeholders.To overcome these barriers,automakers,suppliers,and technology partners must align their strategies to create a cohesive approach that supports efficient deployment and consistent adoption of connected features.This alignment is key to preventing a fragmented market where the benefits of connected vehicles are not evenly distributed.Cost management is another critical aspect that requires attention.The lack of a unified approach to handling connectivity costs has led to varying practices across the industry,resulting in potential confusion for consumers.Companies need to clearly communicate the value and cost implications of connected features to ensure that consumers see them as integral,value-enhancing parts of the vehicle,rather than optional add-ons.Over-the-air(OTA)updates hold immense promise for keeping vehicles current,secure,and optimised without the need for physical servicing.However,their inconsistent implementation has highlighted weaknesses in existing infrastructure,as well as challenges in ensuring compatibility across different systems and models.Investing in a more robust infrastructure and ensuring the reliability of the OTA update process are essential to fully leverage their potential.Additionally,automakers must focus on educating consumers about OTA updates to help them understand their benefits and importance.The role of traditional automakers is also evolving in the connected vehicle landscape.Partnerships with technology firms are becoming increasingly important for driving future innovation,especially as vehicles become more complex and reliant on software,AI,and advanced connectivity solutions.However,relying solely on external partnerships poses risks,such as loss of control over core technologies.Therefore,building internal capabilities in software development,AI,and data management is equally vital for long-term success and competitiveness.The automotive sector is at a crucial junctureensuring seamless connectivity requires a focused effort on overcoming integration challenges,clarifying cost structures,and building the infrastructure needed for a reliable and consistent connected experience.Addressing these challenges will not only enhance the customer experience but also ensure a sustainable and innovative future for connected vehicles,benefiting all stakeholdersfrom manufacturers to consumers,and the broader community.NAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION25Powered byProduced byINTERVIEW:TOM HESLINGTONIn this interview,Tom Heslington,Head of Vehicle Connectivity at JLR shares his insights into JLRs 18bn,five-year investment strategy to grow their connected vehicles services and how Tata Communications MOVETM allows their customers to focus on enjoying their vehicle above all else.How is executive leadership at JLR approaching the connected vehicles space from a technological,strategic,and financial standpoint?As part of our Reimagine strategy,we have plans to invest 18bn over the next five years in our industrial footprint,vehicle programmes;autonomous,AI and digital technologies,and people skills.JLR has also invested in a network of global engineering hubs,including Portland,Shannon,Bangalore and Manchester,to grow our ability to deliver connected vehicle services to customers.Collectively our 11 global hubs employ over 1,500 engineers,forming part of JLRs over 11,000-strong permanent global engineering force.Our Open Innovation programme helps to deliver Reimagine,fostering collaborative innovation with corporate entities,investors,and academia on a global scale.One of the main focus areas of JLRs innovation strategy is connectivity.Through our Open Innovation programme we have engaged with over 2,000 startups,resulting in 33 co-creation projects.The CVC arm InMotion Ventures is an early investor in one of these startups and Cesium Astro,with which we have been exploring the application of Low Earth Orbit satellites(LEO)for JLR.We continue to invest in people to ensure we have the skills and knowledge in-house to develop our own cloud platform that powers a wide range of services such as diagnostics,telematics,ADAS,V2X and more.We were one of the first OEMs to deploy e-SIM technology at scale with Tata Communications in 2020,and we are looking to continue this ambitious leading deployment of future technology with our next-generation vehicles.JLR is known for its strong emphasis on customer centricity,and customer experience is increasingly becoming a key market differentiator.How does your connected vehicles program help achieve your customer experience goals and enhance your competitive position,especially in line with JLRs 2030 mission?JLR is not in an arms race to deliver digital features we seek tech features that have material relevancy for our clients,slotting neatly into each JLR brands values.We want to take care of the how and where the vehicle connects on behalf of the customer,removing barriers such as data packages,network operator contracts and handling SIMs.Our work with Tata Communications MOVETM allows our customers to focus on enjoying their vehicle.A JLR customers experience with their car is more than just driving!The ability to manage charging,plan routes,update software,control the cabin temperature and air quality can all occur outside the vehicle.We must ensure these experiences meet our modern luxury standards and integrate with a customers daily digital life they dont want to have to worry about setting up networks.This is key to customer satisfaction and the positive engagement we desire to meet our goals.One such example of delivering connected features is Software over-the-Air.We are working closely with Tata Communications to enhance Software OTA updates by investing in the network to meet our increasing demand for vehicle data over the air.Software OTA was originally developed to update infotainment systems.It now updates a wide variety of vehicle systems,from propulsion/powertrain,braking and steering systems,transmission control for four-wheel-drive and advanced driver-assistance systems(ADAS).This feature makes a four-year-old car as up to date as one leaving the showroom today.With this,so far,we have:Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION26 Delivered approximately 15 million unique Software OTA updates till date,with an average of over 0.5mn ECUs updated per month over the last year.Fitted 3 million cars with InControl suite of products and services across models.This spans across 64 countries in 28 different languages,which is one of the largest global footprints for a global automotive OEM.Updated over 217,000 pre-2020 model year vehicles with enhanced security with thanks to a 15m investment and our software-over-the-air(SOTA)technologyFor this,we have been ranked top in the JD Power survey for updates.And this is just the beginning.Our teams are working with Tata Communications to deliver AI-driven predictive diagnostics and issue resolution.What factors are most important when selecting a technology partner for your connected car initiatives,and what led you to collaborate with Tata Communications?Can you share key use cases you are developing with Tata Communications MOVE and the outcomes you expect?One of the key factors,as mentioned above,is the priority of delivering connectivity to JLRs clients that is dependable and accessible.We are the only automotive OEM that is part of a larger group featuring a telecommunications business.With Tata Communications help we can navigate the very complex world of global telecommunications.Tata Communications manage 100s of global network operators,deals with the different regulations and gives us a single product that we can use to deploy our connected services.We look for a partner,like Tata Communications,who is going to invest in technology and match out ambition to become a SDV player;a partner that will invest in their platform capability,network and technology to ensure we have cutting edge wireless connectivity available today and in the future.While we can take a lot of data from the vehicle and network to establish where we have bad connectivity,a priority for JLR is to ensure quality of service and to minimise the cost of data,which Tata Communications is aligned to.As part of the wider Tata group,Tata Communications has a deep understanding of the automotive agile operating model,ensuring seamless alignment between automotive use cases and telecom capabilities.We want to give our customers one source of connectivity and through Tata Communications network,our customers wont have to worry about connecting to different networks in different regions or areas around the world.Thus,they experience less connectivity disruption compared to other vehicle brands.NAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION27Powered byProduced byINTERVIEW:MARCO BIJVELDSMarco Bijvelds,VP and Global Head-MOVE&Mobility Business at Tata Communications is responsible for developing an innovation&growth agenda that will help advance the MOVE&Mobility business roadmap while identifying new opportunities.In this interview,Marco shares his thoughts on the evolving technologies that will redefine the connected vehicles of the future and how partners like Tata Communications can help OEMs navigate complexity,regulations,and security concerns.What are the evolving technologies that will redefine the connected vehicles of tomorrow,how can the data from connected vehicles become a source of value to both OEMs as well as the end consumers?Todays consumers see their connected vehicles as an extension of their digital lives.They just dont want their vehicles to be connected but expect them to be able to provide smart&secure experiences.Consumers expect their vehicles and the surrounding ecosystem to be able to anticipate needs,adapt to their routines,and connect seamlessly with the broader digital world.Automotive OEMs are developing advanced use cases to enhance safety and make the vehicle intelligent.Technologies like AI&5G will play a big role in that future of connected vehicles and we feel very excited for the automotive industry.5G will provide that low-latency and reliable communication for use-cases like ADAS,while the data-insights will be used for driving services revenues for OEMs.One such example that we are working on with a global customer of ours is that of optimising vehicle software OTA downloads.Our customer uses data insights to recommend the best time and best network to improve its OTA update success rate.How is borderless,multimodal connectivity,the factor defining the connected vehicle space of the future?Vehicle connectivity is at the core of OEMs business and tech strategy.They are developing various software services and software-enabled hardware services to differentiate themselves.To ensure a seamless experience,OEMs are working with various MNOs.But we hear that they are not happy with this system of working across multiple platforms and managing multiple MNOs.Managing multiple MNOs,regulations,agreements,etc,is challenging and resource intensive.This is especially difficult for OEMs with multi-country deployments.Plus,inconsistency in data and lack of control over their connections,hampers the quality of service.This is why they need a platform that enables flexibility of bringing their own network,so as to cause minimum disruptions.Working with our customers,weve reduced time-to-market in new markets by up to 60%.To provide a seamless experience especially across low coverage pockets,we are also working on satellite connectivity through our partner network wherever the demand is.We feel that will be a game changed along with emergence of 5G that will accelerate deployment of autonomous driving,where seamless,multi-modal connectivity becomes even more important.As Auto OEMs navigate the ever-evolving landscape of connected vehicles,navigating complexity,regulations,and security concerns,how should they choose a partner that is much more than just a connectivity provider?We believe that Automotive OEMs should select a partner that takes away the complexities of managing the in-vehicle connectivity and brings in years of not just telecom experience,but also industry expertise.We have seen OEM players facing challenges because of difficult and ever-changing regulatory requirements.So,they should also be working with someone reliable with a robust approach towards unified security and be able to bring both technical and consultative expertise to the table.A vehicle made today is going to be on the road for around 10 years.The partner they work with should be agile and constantly evolving to serve their business goals and enable them to provide an out-of-the-world experience to their end customers.There is a need to provide a consolidated digital fabric enabler who can drive connectivity from cradle to grave for a car across the private(Manufacturing)and public environments.Powered byProduced byNAVIGATING THE FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES:INTEGRATION,INNOVATION&STRATEGIC COLLABORATION28Tata Communications MOVE(MOVE)provides an in-vehicle connectivity solution that enables development and deployment of connected mobility services simpler,smarter,and safer.MOVE empowers Auto OEMs to provide mobility services across 190 countries and territories with a single contract.It leverages Tata Communications Tier 1 global infrastructure to connect millions of devices globally.To know more about their automotive solution, mail at MOVE
2024-12-29
28页
5星级
Electric Vehicle Sales Review Q4 2024Foresight to drive the industryJanuary 2025Strategy&This public.
2024-12-29
25页
5星级
USING THE FUEL ECONOMY GUIDEiCONTENTSiUsing the Fuel Economy Guide1How the Guide is Organized1Why Some Vehicles Are NotListed1Vehicle Classes Used in this Guide2Understanding the Guide Listings3Tax Incentives and Disincentives3Fuel Economy Saves You Money4Fueling Options5Alternative Fueling StationLocator6Improve Your Fuel Economy7Advanced Vehicle Technologies8Annual Fuel Cost Ranges forVehicle Classes9Most Efficient Vehicles102024 Model Year Vehicles41All-Electric Vehicles38Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles50Fuel Cell Vehicles51Diesel Vehicles53Ethanol Flexible Fuel VehiclesThe U.S.Environmental Protection Agency(EPA)andU.S.Department of Energy(DOE)produce the FuelEconomy Guide to help car buyers choose the mostfuel-efficient vehicle that meets their needs.The Guideis available on the Web at fueleconomy.gov.Fuel Economy EstimatesThe purpose of EPAs fuel economy estimates is toprovide a reliable basis for comparing vehicles.Most vehicles in this guide(other than plug-in hybrids)have three fuel economy estimates:A city estimate that represents urban driving,inwhich a vehicle is started in the morning(after beingparked all night)and driven in stop-and-go trafficA highway estimate that represents a mixture ofrural and interstate highway driving in a warmed-upvehicle,typical of longer trips in free-owing trafficA combined estimate that represents acombination of city driving(55%)and highwaydriving(45%)Estimates for all vehicles are based on laboratorytesting under standardized conditions to allow for faircomparisons.Flexible fuel vehicles(FFVs),which can use gasolineand E85,have estimates for both fuels.Plug-in hybridelectric vehicles(PHEVs)have estimates for(1)electric-only or blended electric and gasoline operation and(2)gasoline-only operation.PHEVs are discussed inmore detail on page 38.For answers to frequentlyasked questions about fuel economy estimates,visitfueleconomy.gov.Annual Fuel Cost EstimatesThis guide provides annual fuel cost estimates,rounded to the nearest$50,for each vehicle.Theestimates are based on the assumptions that youtravel 15,000 miles per year(55%under city drivingconditions and 45%under highway conditions)andthat fuel costs$3.15/gallon for regular unleadedgasoline,$3.72/gallon for mid-grade unleadedgasoline,and$4.09/gallon for premium.Cost-per-gallon assumptions for vehicles that use other fueltypes are discussed at the beginning of those vehiclesections.Visit fueleconomy.gov to personalize fuel costs basedon current fuel prices and your driving habits.Your Fuel Economy Will VaryEPAs fuel economy values are good estimates ofthe fuel economy a typical driver will achieve underaverage driving conditions and provide a goodbasis to compare one vehicle to another.Still,yourfuel economy may be slightly higher or lower thanEPAs estimates.Fuel economy varies,sometimessignicantly,based on driving conditions,driving style,and other factors.To ensure that estimates are consistent acrossdifferent makes and models,the EPA estimatesare based on a standardized,repeatable testingprocedure.These tests model an average driversenvironment and behavior based on real-worldconditions,such as stop-and-go traffic.However,it is impossible for a single test topredict fuel economy precisely for all drivers in allenvironments.For example,the following factors canlower your vehicles fuel economy:Aggressive driving(speeding and hard accelerationand hard braking)Excessive idling,accelerating,and braking in stop-and-go trafficCold weather(engines are more efficient whenwarmed up).The impact is greater for short trips.Driving with a heavy load or with the air conditionerrunningImproperly tuned engine or under-inated tiresDriving on mountainous or hilly terrainHigh-performance or snow tiresUse of remote startersIn addition,small variations in vehicle manufacturingcan cause fuel economy variations in the same makeand model,and some vehicles dont attain maximumfuel economy until they are broken in(around 3,0005,000 miles).With fuel-efficient driving techniques,drivers may alsoachieve better fuel economy than the EPA estimates.See Improve Your Fuel Economy on page 6 for tipson maximizing your fuel economy.The EPA ratings are a useful tool for comparingvehicles because they are always done in preciselythe same way under the same set of conditions.However,they may not accurately predict the fueleconomy you will get.This is also true for annual fuelcost estimates.For more information on fuel economyratings and factors that affect fuel economy,visitfueleconomy.gov.FUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 20241HOW THE GUIDE IS ORGANIZEDFuel economy estimates for all vehicles begin with the 2024 ModelYear Vehicles section on page 10.Vehicles are organized by EPAvehicle class and,for trucks and vans,drive type(two-or four-wheeldrive).Additional sections are dedicated to specic vehicle technology or fueltypes for consumers looking for advanced vehicles or alternatives togasoline vehiclesdiesels,plug-in hybrids,all-electric vehicles,ex-fuel vehicles,and fuel cell vehicles.WHY SOME VEHICLES ARE NOT LISTEDLight-duty fuel economy regulations do not apply toSport utility vehicles(SUVs)and passenger vans with a gross vehicleweight rating(GVWR)of more than 10,000 poundsGVWR is thevehicle weight plus carrying capacityOther vehicles with a GVWR of 8,500 pounds or moreTherefore,manufacturers do not have to estimate their fuel economy,and fuel economy labels are not posted on their windows.Also,fueleconomy information on some vehicles was not available in time to beincluded in this guide.More up-to-date information can be found atfueleconomy.gov.VEHICLE CLASSES USED IN THIS GUIDECARSTRUCKSClassPassenger&Cargo Volume(cu.ft.)TWO-SEATER CARSAnySEDANSMinicompactUnder 85Subcompact85 to 99Compact100 to 109Midsize110 to 119Large120 or moreSTATION WAGONSSmallUnder 130Midsize130 to 159Large160 or moreClassGross Vehicle Weight Rating*(pounds)PICKUP TRUCKSSmallUnder 6,000Standard6,000 to 8,500VANSPassengerUnder 10,000CargoUnder 8,500MINIVANSUnder 8,500SPORT UTILITY VEHICLESSmallUnder 6,000Standard6,000 to 9,999SPECIAL PURPOSE VEHICLESUnder 8,500*Gross vehicle weight rating is vehicle weight plus carrying capacity.UNDERSTANDING THE GUIDE LISTINGS2We hope you nd the Fuel Economy Guide easy to use!Fuel economyand annual fuel cost data are organized by vehicle class(see page 1for a list of classes).Within each class,vehicles are listed alphabeticallyby manufacturer and model.Vehicle models with different features,such as engine size ortransmission type,are listed separately.Engine and transmissionattributes are shown in the rst column under the model name.Additional attributes needed to distinguish among vehicles(e.g.,fuel type or suggested fuel grade)are listed in the“Notes”column.Alegend for abbreviations is provided on page 10.A P in the Notes column indicates that the manufacturer recommends that the vehicle be fueled with premium-grade gasoline,and a PR indicates that the manufacturer requires premium.Thehigher price of premium fuel is reected in the annual fuel cost ofthese vehicles.The most fuel-efficient vehicles in each class and alternative fuelvehicles are indicated with special markings(see the diagram below).Vehicles that can use more than one kind of fuel have an entry foreach fuel type.Interior passenger and cargo volumes are located inthe index at the back of the Guide.Each vehicle listing includes a greenhouse gas(GHG)rating on a scaleof 1(worst)to 10(best).This rating is a comparison of the tailpipeGHG emissions of the vehicle to those of other vehicles of the samemodel year.Highway vehicles account for about 23%(1.4 billion tons)of U.S.greenhouse gas emissions each year.The average recent-modelvehicle causes the release of 5 to 9 tons of GHGs each year.Switchingfrom a vehicle that gets 20 miles per gallon(MPG)to one that gets 25MPG can reduce GHG emissions by 1.7 tons per year.Switching to anelectric vehicle could reduce your GHG emissions even more.Checkout EPA and DOEs Beyond Tailpipe Emissions Calculator to estimatethe GHG emissions from owning a plug-in electric vehicle where youlive(fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=bt2).Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissionsby Vehicle MPG(gasoline vehicles)*Includes both tailpipe and upstream emissionsTAX INCENTIVES AND DISINCENTIVESFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 20243Federal Tax CreditsYou may be eligible for a federal income tax credit of up to$7,500 ifyou purchase a qualifying all-electric vehicle(EV),plug-in hybrid,orfuel cell vehicle in 20232024.Qualifying EVs and plug-in hybrids have been eligible for a federalincome tax credit for over a decade,but the Ination Reduction Actof 2023 recently changed the eligibility requirements signicantly.The new legislation also extends the tax credits to qualifying fuel cellvehicles.Tax credits and eligible vehicles can vary greatly depending on severalfactors,including when the vehicle is purchased and put into service.Visit fueleconomy.gov for more information on qualifying models,credit amounts,and vehicle and buyer requirements.Gas Guzzler TaxThe Energy Tax Act of 1978 requires auto companies to pay a gasguzzler tax on the sale of cars with exceptionally low fuel economy.Such vehicles are identied in the Guide by the word Tax in theNotes column.In the dealer showroom,the words Gas Guzzler andthe tax amount are listed on the vehicles fuel economy label.The taxdoes not apply to light trucks.Fuel Economy Saves You MoneyThe average household spends about one-fth of its total familyexpenditures on transportation,making it the second most expensivecategory after housing.You could save as much as$1,000(or more)in fuel costs each year by choosing the most fuel-efficient vehicle in aparticular class.This can add up to thousands of dollars over a vehicleslifetime.Fuel-efficient models come in all shapes and sizes,so youneed not sacrice utility or size.Each vehicle listing in the Fuel Economy Guide provides an estimatedannual fuel cost(see page i).The Find and Compare Cars tool atfueleconomy.gov features an annual fuel cost calculator that allowsyou to insert your local gasoline prices and typical driving conditions(percentage of city and highway driving)to obtain more accurate fuelcost information for your vehicle.FUELING OPTIONS4Ethanol BlendsE85,E15,and E10Ethanol is a domestically produced,renewable fuel made primarilyfrom corn and sugar cane.The use of ethanol as a vehicle fuel canreduce greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.E10 is a blend of 10%ethanol and 90%gasoline and is legal for usein any gasoline-powered vehicle.Most of the gasoline sold in theU.S.contains up to 10%ethanol to boost octane,meet air qualityrequirements,or satisfy the federal Renewable Fuel Standard.As of2011,EPA began allowing the use of E15 in model year 2001 andnewer gasoline vehicles.Ethanol contains about one-third less energythan gasoline.So,vehicles will typically go 3%4wer miles pergallon on E10 and 4%5wer miles per gallon on E15 than on 100%gasoline.While E10 is available everywhere,E15 is currently availableat more than 1,300 stations in the United States.E85(or ex fuel)is a high-level ethanol-gasoline blend containing51%ethanol,depending on the season and geographic location.Drivers can use E85 in exible fuel vehicles(FFVs),which are speciallydesigned to run on gasoline,E85,or any mixture of the two.FFVsare offered by several vehicle manufacturers.To determine whetheryour vehicle is an FFV,check the inside of your cars fuel ller doorfor an identication sticker or consult your owners manual.Morethan 4,200 lling stations in the United States currently sell E85.Visitafdc.energy.gov/locator/stations to nd stations near you.FFVs typically experience a 15%drop in fuel economy whenoperating on E85 instead of regular gasoline due to ethanols lowerenergy content and other factors,assuming gasoline typicallycontains about 10%ethanol.Drivers should notice no degradationin performance.In fact,some FFVs produce more torque andhorsepower when fueled with higher-level ethanol blends.BiodieselBiodiesel is a domestically produced renewable fuel manufacturedfrom vegetable oils or animal fats for use in diesel vehicles.Usingbiodiesel in place of petroleum diesel can reduce GHG emissions.Biodiesel can be blended with petroleum diesel at any percentage.B20 is a common biodiesel blend that contains 20%biodiesel and80%petroleum diesel.B5(5%biodiesel and 95%petroleum diesel)is another common blend.All vehicle manufacturers have approvedbiodiesel blends up to and including B5 for use in all diesel engines,and some have approved the use of blends up to B20 in a few recentmodel year vehicles.Keep in mind that using higher-level biodieselblends may affect your vehicle warranty.Check your owners manualor check with your vehicle manufacturer to determine the right blendfor your vehicle.Purchase commercial-grade biodiesel from a reputable dealer.Neverrefuel with recycled grease or vegetable oil that has not been converted tobiodiesel.It will damage your engine.More than 1,300 stations currently dispense B20.Visitafdc.energy.gov/locator/stations to nd service stations sellingbiodiesel near you.Premium-vs Regular-Grade GasolineRegular unleaded(87 octane)is the recommended fuel for mostgasoline vehicles.Using a higher-octane gasoline than recommendedby the owners manual does not improve performance or fuelefficiency under normal conditions.Check your owners manualfor the recommended grade of fuel for your vehicle,and visitfueleconomy.gov for more information about selecting the rightoctane for your vehicle.FUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 20245Charging Your Electric or Plug-in Hybrid VehicleElectric vehicle(EV)and plug-in hybrid owners have several chargingoptions.Many owners will do most of their charging at home.Someworkplaces,businesses,and multi-unit dwellings(condos/apartments)provide charging,and more than 59,000 public charging stations withover 150,000 charging ports are available across the country.There are three basic types of charging:Level 1 charging:You can plug into a regular 120-volt(V)outletthe kind found in your home.This is the slowest type of chargingabout 2 to 5 miles of range per hour of chargingbut requires nospecial charger or outlet type.Most,if not all,plug-in vehicles areequipped with a cord to allow this type of charging.Level 2 charging:These chargers supply current at 208 to 240 V andprovide 10 to 20 miles of range per hour of charging.Most publicchargers are Level 2 chargers.You can also have a Level 2 chargerinstalled at home.Most public chargers use a standard plug typethat is compatible with all vehicles from major manufacturers.Teslacharging stations use a different plug type that cannot be used byother vehicles.However,Tesla provides an adaptor that allows itsvehicles to use both Tesla and standard Level 2 charging stations.Fast charging:Also called DC fast charging or DC quick charging,this is the fastest kind of charging,providing 60 to 80 miles of range(or more)to the battery in 20 minutes.Not all vehicles can acceptfast charging,nor do all vehicles use the same type of plug forDC fast charging,so check your owners manual.Quick chargingstations are usually located along heavy traffic corridors.Due toexpense and electric current requirements,they are not practical forhome installation.Note:Charge rate can vary based on vehicle model.So,checkthe owners manual for estimated charge time.Charge rate alsodepends on other factors,such as the batterys state of chargeand the ambient temperature.Visit afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html for more information.ALTERNATIVE FUELING STATION LOCATORWondering where you can fuel up your alternative fuel vehicle?TheAlternative Fueling Station Locator can help you nd a station nearyou or within a given distance from a planned route.The StationLocator shows fueling locations for ethanol,electricity,biodiesel,propane,natural gas,and hydrogen.Check it out at afdc.energy.gov/stations.IMPROVE YOUR FUEL ECONOMY6Drive More EfficientlyAggressive driving(speeding and rapid acceleration/braking)canlower your gas mileage by roughly 150%at highway speedsand 10%in stop-and-go traffic.Driver feedback devices can help you drive more efficiently,improving fuel economy by up to 10%.Observe the speed limit.Each 5 MPH you drive over 60 MPH canreduce your fuel economy by 7%.For a personalized estimate of theeffect of speeding on your fuel economy,visit fueleconomy.gov.Avoid idling.Idling gets 0 miles per gallon and costs as much as$0.02 per minute.Using cruise control on the highway helps you maintain a constantspeed and,in most cases,will save fuel.Keep Your Car in ShapeAddress engine problems promptly.If the check engine light comeson,have your vehicle inspected by a mechanic.It could save youfuel and money down the road.Keeping tires inated to the recommended pressure can typicallyimprove fuel economy by 0.6%.The manufacturers recommended tire pressure can be foundon the tire information placard and/or vehicle certication labellocated on the vehicle door edge,doorpost,glove-box door,orinside the trunk lid.Using the recommended grade of motor oil can improve your fueleconomy by 1%2%if youve been using the wrong grade.Keep your tires aligned and balanced.Replacing a clogged air lter can improve gas mileage on older carswith carbureted engines.Plan and Combine TripsA warmed-up engine is more fuel-efficient than a cold one.Manyshort trips taken from a cold start can use twice as much fuel as onemultipurpose trip covering the same distance.Note:Letting your car idle to warm up doesnt help your fueleconomy:it actually uses more fuel and creates more pollution.Other SolutionsAvoid carrying unneeded items.An extra 100 pounds can decreasefuel economy by about 1%.Avoid carrying cargo on your roof.A large,blunt rooftop cargo box,for example,can reduce fuel economy by 2%8%in city driving,6%on the highway,and 10%at interstate speeds(65 to75 MPH).Rear-mount cargo boxes or trays reduce fuel economy by much less(1%2%in city driving and 1%5%on the highway).Use the“economy mode”feature if your vehicle has one.For more tips on improving fuel economy,such as cold-weather tips;hot-weather tips;and tips for hybrids,plug-in hybrids,and all-electricvehicles,visit fueleconomy.gov.Tips for Electric and Hybrid VehiclesMost of the driving tips for conventional vehicles will also helpincrease the range of electric vehicles and hybrids.In addition to thedriving tips above,the tips below will help you get the most out ofyour electric or hybrid vehicle.1.Read your owners manual.The automaker knows how to operateand maintain your vehicle to maximize fuel economy,drivingrange,and battery life.So,consult the owners manual for tipsspecic to your vehicle.2.Use the economy(Eco)mode.Many of these vehicles come withan economy mode or similar feature to improve fuel economy.You can often turn on this feature by just pressing a button.3.Avoid hard braking.Anticipate stops and brake gently ormoderately.This allows the regenerative braking system torecover energy from the vehicles forward motion and store it aselectricity.Hard braking causes the vehicle to use its conventionalfriction brakes,which do not recover energy.4.Keep the battery charged.Keeping your plug-in hybrids batterycharged helps you use as much electricity and as little gasoline aspossible,saving you fuel and money and extending the vehiclesrange.For EVs,it helps maximize your driving range.5.Use accessories wisely.Using accessories such as heating,airconditioning,and entertainment systems can lower fuel economymore for electric vehicles and hybrids than for conventionalvehicles.So,keep that in mind when trying to maximize fueleconomy or electric range.Pre-heating or pre-cooling the cabinof a plug-in hybrid or EV while its plugged in,for example,canextend its electric range.ADVANCED VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIESFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 20247Manufacturers are using advanced technologies to improve fueleconomy in many of their vehicles.Along with plug-in hybrids,all-electric vehicles,and fuel cell vehicles,new technologies are alsobeing used to make conventional vehicles more efficient.Someof these fuel-saving technologies are described below.For moreinformation,visit fueleconomy.gov.Hybrid VehiclesHybrids combine the best features of the internal combustion enginewith an electric motor and can signicantly improve fuel economy.They are primarily propelled by an internal combustion engine,just like conventional vehicles.However,they also use regenerativebraking to convert energy normally wasted during coasting andbraking into electricity.The recovered electricity is stored in a batteryuntil needed by the electric motor.The electric motor assists theengine when accelerating or hill climbing and at low speeds,whereinternal combustion engines are least efficient.Fuel efficiency can vary signicantly among different hybrid modelsdue to battery and electric motor size.Hybrids with larger batteriesand electric motors,sometimes called full or strong hybrids,canstore more electricity and provide more power to assist the gasolineengine.Some can even run on the electric motor alone for shortdistances.Hybrids with smaller batteries and electric motors are oftenreferred to as mild hybrids.Mild hybrid systems have a smaller effecton fuel economy.In the Guide listings,full hybrids are indicated byHEV in the Notes column,while mild hybrids are indicated byMHEV.Note:Unlike plug-in hybrids(described on page 38),conventional hybridscannot be plugged into an external source of electricity to be rechargedor run on electricity for any substantial distance.Instead,gasoline andregenerative braking provide all of the vehicles energy.Stop-Start SystemsStop-start systems(sometimes called idle-stop,smart start,or othermanufacturer-specic names)save fuel by turning off the enginewhen the vehicle comes to a stop and automatically starting it backup when you step on the accelerator.Stop-start can improve fueleconomy by up to 5%and provides the biggest benet in conditionswhere the engine would otherwise be idling,such as stop-and-go citydriving.These systems are currently available on all hybrids and onhundreds of conventional vehicle models.Cylinder DeactivationCylinder deactivation turns off some of the engines cylinders whenthey are not needed.This temporarily and seamlessly turns an 8-or 6-cylinder engine into a more efficient 4-or 3-cylinder engine.TurbochargingTurbocharging increases engine power,allowing a smaller,more fuel-efficient engine to be used in place of a larger one.Replacing an 8-cylinder engine with a turbocharged 6-cylinder or a 6-cylinder enginewith a turbocharged 4-cylinder can save fuel and still provide extrapower when needed.Advanced TransmissionsThe advanced electronics in todays vehicles can optimize gear shiftingfor improved fuel efficiency.Eight-speed automatic transmissionsare most common,and some have even more gears.Continuouslyvariable transmissions(CVTs)can change seamlessly through aninnite number of gears.Transmissions with more gears allow theengine to run at its most efficient speed more often,improving fueleconomy.Improved AerodynamicsReducing a vehicles aerodynamic drag(wind resistance)improvesfuel economy,especially at higher speeds.Many manufacturers areimproving aerodynamics by rening vehicle shapes or by employingexternal moving parts such as shutters that close off the grill,allowing air to ow smoothly around the vehicle instead of into theengine compartment,where it produces more drag.Lighter VehiclesReducing vehicle weight improves fuel economy,so manufacturersare beginning to redesign vehicles to weigh less while maintainingperformance and safety.For example,replacing a steel body with onemade from a lighter-weight material,such as aluminum,can reducevehicle weight by hundreds of pounds.ANNUAL FUEL COST RANGES FOR VEHICLE CLASSES8The graph below provides the annual fuel cost ranges for the vehicles in each class so you can see where a given vehicles cost falls within itsclass.Annual fuel costs assume that you travel 15,000 miles each year,drive 55%in the city and 45%on the highway,and that fuel costs$3.15/gallon for regular unleaded gasoline,$4.09/gallon for premium,$3.68/gallon for diesel,and$0.15/kWh for electricity.Visit fueleconomy.gov tocalculate the annual fuel cost for a specic vehicle based on your own driving conditions and fuel prices.Annual Fuel CostFuel economy estimates on this chart do not include vehicles operating on compressed natural gas(CNG),E85,or hydrogen.FUEL ECONOMY LEADERSFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 20249Listed below are vehicles with the highest fuel economy in the mostpopular classes.For each vehicle class,we list the most efficientvehicle.If the most fuel efficient vehicle is a plug-in hybrid(PHEV)orall-electric vehicle(EV),we also list the most fuel efficient conventionalvehicle.Rankings are based on combined city and highway fueleconomy estimates,which assume 55%city driving and 45%highwaydriving.Please note that many vehicle models come in a rangeof engine sizes and trim lines,resulting in different fuel economyvalues.If there is only one vehicle in a class,a fuel economy leaderis not listed.For an up-to-date list of fuel economy leaders,visitfueleconomy.gov.Trans Type/SpeedsEng Size/CylindersMPG(e)CombinedTWO-SEATER CARSBUGATTI RIMACNevera(EV).A-1.53*MAZDAMX-5.M-6.2.0L/4cyl.29MX-5.A-S6.2.0L/4cyl.29MINICOMPACT CARSFIAT500e(EV).A-1.116*MINICooper Convertible.AM-S7.1.5L/3cyl.32SUBCOMPACT CARSBMWi4 eDrive35 Gran Coupe(18 inch Wheels)(EV).A-1.120*AUDIA3(hybrid).AM-S7.2.0L/4cyl.32MINICooper Hardtop 2 door.AM-S7.1.5L/3cyl.32Cooper Hardtop 4 door.AM-S7.1.5L/3cyl.32COMPACT CARSBMWi5 eDrive40 Sedan(19 inch Wheels)(EV).A-1.105*TOYOTACorolla Hybrid.AV.1.8L/4cyl.50MIDSIZE CARSHYUNDAIIoniq 6 Long range RWD(18 inch Wheels)(EV).A-1.140*TOYOTAPrius(hybrid).AV.2.0L/4cyl.57LARGE CARSLUCIDAir Pure RWD with 19 inch wheels(EV).A-1.137*HONDAAccord Hybrid.AV.2.0L/4cyl.48Trans Type/SpeedsEng Size/CylindersMPG(e)CombinedSMALL STATION WAGONSNISSANARIYA VENTURE Plus FWD 87kWh(EV).A-1.103*KIASoul Eco dynamics.AV.2.0L/4cyl.31MIDSIZE STATION WAGONSAUDIA6 Allroad quattro(hybrid).AM-S7.3.0L/6cyl.25MERCEDES-BENZE450 4matic All-Terrain(wagon)(hybrid).A-9.3.0L/6cyl.25VOLVOV90CC B6 AWD(hybrid).A-S8.2.0L/4cyl.25SMALL PICKUP TRUCKSFORDMaverick HEV FWD(hybrid).AV.2.5L/4cyl.37STANDARD PICKUP TRUCKSRIVIANR1T Dual Max(21in)(EV).A-1.84*R1T Performance Dual Max(21in)(EV).A-1.84*CHEVROLETSilverado 2WD(diesel).A-10.3.0L/6cyl.26MINIVANSCHRYSLERPacica Hybrid(PHEV).AV.3.6L/6cyl.48TOYOTASienna 2WD(hybrid).AV-S6.2.5L/4cyl.36SMALL SPORT UTILITY VEHICLESLEXUSRZ 300e(18 inch wheels)(EV).A-1.125*KIANiro FE(hybrid).AM-S6.1.6L/4cyl.53STANDARD SPORT UTILITY VEHICLESAUDIQ4 40 e-tron(EV).A-1.103*TOYOTAGrand Highlander Hybrid.AV-S6.2.5L/4cyl.36*This is an electric vehicle.Since electricity is not measured in gallons,a conversion factor is used to translate the fuel economy into miles per gallon of gasolineequivalent(MPGe).This vehicle is a plug-in hybrid,which runs on both gasoline and electricity.Since electricity is not measured in gallons,a conversion factor is used to translatethe fuel economy when running on electricity into miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent(MPGe).The combined MPGe estimate includes both city andhighway driving and gasoline and electric energy use.2024 MODEL YEAR VEHICLES10This section contains the fuel economy values for 2024 model yearvehicles.Additional information for alternative fuel vehicles canbe found on pages 4153.Alternative fuel vehicles are highlightedwith an orange bar,and those that can use two kinds of fuel,such asexible fuel vehicles,have an entry for each fuel type.The most fuel-efficient vehicles in each class are marked with a green pointer().ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THIS GUIDE:.Highest MPG in Class2WD.Two-Wheel Drive4WD.Four-Wheel DriveA.Automatic TransmissionA-S.Automatic Transmission-Select ShiftAM.Automated ManualAM-S.Automated Manual-SelectableAV.Continuously Variable TransmissionAV-S.Continuously Variable Transmission withSelect ShiftAWD.All-Wheel DriveCD.With Cylinder DeactivationCity.MPG on City Test ProcedureCyl.CylindersComb.CombinedD.Ultra-Low Sulfur DieselE85.85%Ethanol/15%GasolineEng Size.Engine Volume in LitersEV.Electric VehicleFCV.Fuel Cell VehicleFFV.Flexible Fuel VehicleFWD.Front-Wheel DriveGas.Regular GasolineGHG.Greenhouse GasGPF.Gasoline Particulate FilterGVWR.Gross Vehicle Weight RatingHP.HorsepowerHEV.Hybrid-Electric VehicleHwy.MPG on Highway Test ProcedureLi-ion.Lithium ionLWB.Long WheelbaseM.Manual TransmissionMDPV.Medium-Duty Passenger VehicleMid.Midgrade GasolineMHEV.Mild Hybrid-Electric VehicleMode.Multimode TransmissionMPG.Miles per GallonNA.Not AvailableNi-MH.Nickel-Metal HydrideP.Premium Gasoline RecommendedPHEV.Plug-in Hybrid Electric VehiclePR.Premium Gasoline RequiredPT4.Part-time 4WDRWD.Rear Wheel DriveS.SuperchargerS-Mode.Transmission with Sport ModeS-Plus.Sport Plus PackageSpt Pkg.Sport PackageSS.Stop-Start TechnologyT.TurbochargerTax.Subject to Gas Guzzler TaxTrans.TransmissionXFE.Optional Technology PackageFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202411MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesTWO-SEATER CARSASTON MARTINValourM-6,5.2L,12cyl1412/18$4,4002P T Tax CDBMWZ4 M40iA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2623/31$2,3505P T SSZ4 sDrive30iA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2825/33$2,2006P T SSBUGATTIChiron Super SportAM-S7,8.0L,16cyl98/11$6,8001PR T TaxBUGATTI RIMACNevera A-15352/54$1,40010EVCHEVROLETCorvetteA-S8,6.2L,8cyl1916/25$3,2504PR CDCorvette E-RAYA-S8,6.2L,8cyl1916/24$3,2504PR CD HEV SSCorvette Z06A-S8,5.5L,8cyl1512/21$4,1002PR TaxCorvette Z06 Carbon AeroA-S8,5.5L,8cyl1412/19$4,4002PR TaxFERRARI812 CompetizioneAM-7,6.5L,12cyl1412/16$4,4002PR Tax SS812 Competizione AAM-7,6.5L,12cyl1412/16$4,4002PR Tax SSDaytona SP3AM-7,6.5L,12cyl1312/16$4,7001PR Tax SSSF90 SpiderAM-8,3.9L,8cylSee page 38.PR T PHEV SSSF90 StradaleAM-8,3.9L,8cylSee page 38.PR T PHEV SSJAGUARF-Type P450 AWD R-Dynamic ConvertibleA-S8,5.0L,8cyl1816/24$3,4004P S SSF-Type P450 AWD R-Dynamic CoupeA-S8,5.0L,8cyl1816/24$3,4004P S SSF-Type P450 RWD ConvertibleA-S8,5.0L,8cyl1917/24$3,2504P S SSF-Type P450 RWD CoupeA-S8,5.0L,8cyl1917/24$3,2504P S SSF-Type R AWD ConvertibleA-S8,5.0L,8cyl1816/24$3,4004P S SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesF-Type R AWD CoupeA-S8,5.0L,8cyl1816/24$3,4004P S SSLAMBORGHINIHuracan Coupe 2WDAM-S7,5.2L,10cyl1513/18$4,1002PR Tax CDHuracan SpyderAM-S7,5.2L,10cyl1513/18$4,1002PR Tax CDHuracan SterratoAM-S7,5.2L,10cyl1513/18$4,1002PR Tax CDRevueltoAM-S8,6.5L,12cyl1210/17$5,1001PR Tax HEV SSLOTUSEmiraA-S6,3.5L,6cyl2118/26$2,2504SM-6,3.5L,6cyl1916/24$2,5004SMASERATIMC20A-S8,3.0L,6cyl1815/25$3,4004PR TMC20 SpyderA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1815/25$3,4004PR TMAZDAMX-5 A-S6,2.0L,4cyl2926/35$2,1006P M-6,2.0L,4cyl2926/34$2,1006PMERCEDES-BENZAMG SL43A-9,2.0L,4cyl2220/27$2,8005PR T MHEV SSNISSANZA-S9,3.0L,6cyl2219/28$2,8005PR TM-6,3.0L,6cyl2018/24$3,0504PR TZ NISMOA-S9,3.0L,6cyl1917/24$3,2504PR TPORSCHE718 BoxsterAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2421/27$2,5505PR T SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2220/25$2,8005PR T SS718 Boxster GTSAM-S7,4.0L,6cyl2119/24$2,9004PRM-6,4.0L,6cyl1917/24$3,2504PR718 Boxster SAM-S7,2.5L,4cyl2219/25$2,8005PR T SSM-6,2.5L,4cyl2119/24$2,9004PR T SS718 CaymanAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2421/27$2,5505PR T SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2220/25$2,8005PR T SS718 Cayman GTSAM-S7,4.0L,6cyl2119/24$2,9004PRM-6,4.0L,6cyl1917/24$3,2504PR12MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotes718 Cayman SAM-S7,2.5L,4cyl2219/25$2,8005PR T SSM-6,2.5L,4cyl2119/24$2,9004PR T SS718 GT4 RSAM-S7,4.0L,6cyl1615/19$3,8503PR Tax SS718 Spyder RSAM-S7,4.0L,6cyl1614/19$3,8503PR Tax SS911 GT3AM-S7,4.0L,6cyl1614/18$3,8503PR Tax SSM-6,4.0L,6cyl1513/19$4,1002PR Tax911 GT3 RSAM-S7,4.0L,6cyl1614/18$3,8503PR Tax SS911 GT3 TouringAM-S7,4.0L,6cyl1614/18$3,8503PR Tax SSM-6,4.0L,6cyl1513/19$4,1002PR Tax911 S/TM-6,4.0L,6cyl1513/19$4,1002PR Tax SSTOYOTAGR SupraA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2725/31$2,2505P T SSA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2623/31$2,3505P T SSM-6,3.0L,6cyl2119/27$2,9004P TMINICOMPACT CARSASTON MARTINDB12 V8A-8,4.0L,8cyl1715/22$3,6003P TBENTLEYContinental GTCAM-S8,4.0L,8cyl1614/21$3,8503PR T Tax CD SSAM-S8,6.0L,12cyl1412/19$4,4002P T Tax CD SSFERRARIRoma SpiderAM-8,3.9L,8cyl1917/22$3,2504PR T SSFIAT500e A-1116127/104$65010EV500e All SeasonA-1110121/100$70010EVLEXUSLC 500 ConvertibleA-S10,5.0L,8cyl1815/25$3,4004PRMERCEDES-BENZAMG SL55 4matic PlusA-9,4.0L,8cyl1614/21$3,8503PR T Tax SSAMG SL63 4matic PlusA-9,4.0L,8cyl1614/21$3,8503PR T Tax SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesMINICooper Convertible AM-S7,1.5L,3cyl3229/38$1,9006P T SSM-6,1.5L,3cyl3127/38$2,0006P T SSCooper S ConvertibleAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl3027/36$2,0506P T SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2723/33$2,2505P T SSJohn Cooper Works ConvertibleA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2825/33$2,2006P T SSPORSCHE911 CarreraAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/24$3,0504PR T SS911 Carrera 4AM-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/24$3,0504PR T SS911 Carrera 4 CabrioletAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/24$3,0504PR T SS911 Carrera 4 GTSAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl1917/23$3,2504PR T SSM-7,3.0L,6cyl1917/23$3,2504PR T SS911 Carrera 4 GTS CabrioletAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl1917/22$3,2504PR T SSM-7,3.0L,6cyl1916/23$3,2504PR T SS911 Carrera 4SAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/23$3,0504PR T SSM-7,3.0L,6cyl2017/25$3,0504PR T SS911 Carrera 4S CabrioletAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/23$3,0504PR T SSM-7,3.0L,6cyl2017/24$3,0504PR T SS911 Carrera CabrioletAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/24$3,0504PR T SS911 Carrera GTSAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl1917/23$3,2504PR T SSM-7,3.0L,6cyl2017/24$3,0504PR T SS911 Carrera GTS CabrioletAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl1917/23$3,2504PR T SSM-7,3.0L,6cyl2017/24$3,0504PR T SS911 Carrera SAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/23$3,0504PR T SSM-7,3.0L,6cyl2118/25$2,9004PR T SS911 Carrera S CabrioletAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/23$3,0504PR T SSM-7,3.0L,6cyl2017/25$3,0504PR T SS911 Carrera TAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/24$3,0504PR T SSM-7,3.0L,6cyl2017/25$3,0504PR T SS911 DakarAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl1916/24$3,2504PR T SS911 Targa 4AM-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/24$3,0504PR T SS911 Targa 4 GTSAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl1917/22$3,2504PR T SSM-7,3.0L,6cyl1916/23$3,2504PR T SSFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202413MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotes911 Targa 4SAM-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/23$3,0504PR T SSM-7,3.0L,6cyl2017/24$3,0504PR T SS911 TurboAM-S8,3.7L,6cyl1714/21$3,6003PR T Tax SS911 Turbo CabrioletAM-S8,3.7L,6cyl1614/20$3,8503PR T Tax SS911 Turbo SAM-S8,3.7L,6cyl1614/20$3,8503PR T Tax SS911 Turbo S CabrioletAM-S8,3.7L,6cyl1614/20$3,8503PR T Tax SSSUBARUBRZA-S6,2.4L,4cyl2521/30$2,4505PRM-6,2.4L,4cyl2220/27$2,8005PRTOYOTAGR 86A-S6,2.4L,4cyl2421/30$2,5505PRM-6,2.4L,4cyl2220/26$2,8005PRSUBCOMPACT CARSAUDIA3 AM-S7,2.0L,4cyl3229/37$1,5006T MHEV SSA3 quattroAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl3027/34$1,6006T MHEV SSA5 Cabriolet quattroAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2724/33$2,2505P T MHEV SSA5 Coupe quattroAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2724/32$2,2505P T MHEV SSRS 3AM-S7,2.5L,5cyl2319/29$2,6505P TRS 5 CoupeA-S8,2.9L,6cyl2118/25$2,9004P TS3AM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2623/32$2,3505P T MHEV SSS5 CabrioletA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2220/27$2,8005P T SSS5 CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2421/29$2,5505P T SSBENTLEYContinental GTAM-S8,4.0L,8cyl1714/22$3,6003PR T Tax CD SSAM-S8,6.0L,12cyl1512/20$4,1002P T Tax CD SSBMW230i CoupeA-S8,2.0L,4cyl3026/35$2,0506P T SS230i xDrive CoupeA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2825/33$2,2006P T SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotes430i ConvertibleA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2825/34$2,2006P T SS430i CoupeA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2825/34$2,2006P T SS430i xDrive ConvertibleA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2723/33$2,2505P T SS430i xDrive CoupeA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2723/33$2,2505P T SS840i ConvertibleA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2421/29$2,5505P T SS840i CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2421/29$2,5505P T SS840i xDrive ConvertibleA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2421/29$2,5505P T SS840i xDrive CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2421/29$2,5505P T SSi4 eDrive35 Gran Coupe(18 inch Wheels)A-1120122/119$65010EVi4 eDrive35 Gran Coupe(19 inch Wheels)A-1110111/107$70010EVi4 eDrive40 Gran Coupe(18 inch Wheels)A-1109109/108$70010EVi4 eDrive40 Gran Coupe(19 inch Wheels)A-1100100/99$75010EVi4 M50 Gran Coupe(19 inch wheels)A-19594/98$80010EVi4 M50 Gran Coupe(20 inch wheels)A-18079/80$95010EVi4 xDrive40 Gran Coupe(18 inch Wheels)A-1109107/111$70010EVi4 xDrive40 Gran Coupe(19 inch Wheels)A-19998/100$75010EVM2 CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1916/23$3,2504PR T SSM-6,3.0L,6cyl1916/24$3,2504PR TM240i CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2622/32$2,3505P T SSM240i xDrive CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2623/32$2,3505P T SSM4 Competition CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1916/23$3,2504PR T SSM4 Competition M xDrive ConvertibleA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1816/23$3,4004PR T SSM4 Competition M xDrive CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1816/22$3,4004PR T SSM4 CoupeM-6,3.0L,6cyl1916/23$3,2504PR TM440i ConvertibleA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2623/31$2,3505P T MHEV SSM440i CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2724/32$2,2505P T MHEV SSM440i xDrive ConvertibleA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2522/30$2,4505P T MHEV SS14MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesM440i xDrive CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2522/31$2,4505P T MHEV SSM8 Competition ConvertibleA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1715/22$3,6003PR T Tax SSM8 Competition CoupeA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1715/22$3,6003PR T Tax SSM850i xDrive ConvertibleA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1917/24$3,2504P T SSM850i xDrive CoupeA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1917/24$3,2504P T SSCHEVROLETCamaroA-S10,3.6L,6cyl2218/29$2,1505CDM-6,3.6L,6cyl2016/26$2,3504A-S10,6.2L,8cyl2016/26$3,0504PR CDA-S10,6.2L,8cyl1613/21$3,8503PR S TaxM-6,6.2L,8cyl1916/24$3,2504PRM-6,6.2L,8cyl1614/20$3,8503PR S TaxFERRARIRomaAM-8,3.9L,8cyl1917/22$3,2504PR T SSFORDMustangA-10,2.3L,4cyl2622/33$1,8005T SSA-S10,5.0L,8cyl1916/24$2,5004SSA-S10,5.0L,8cyl1815/24$2,6004M-6,5.0L,8cyl1815/23$2,6004SSM-6,5.0L,8cyl1714/23$2,8003TaxMustang Dark HorseA-S10,5.0L,8cyl1714/22$2,8003TaxM-6,5.0L,8cyl1714/22$2,8003TaxMustang Performance PackageA-S10,2.3L,4cyl2421/29$1,9505T SSLEXUSLC 500A-S10,5.0L,8cyl1816/24$3,4004PRLC 500hAV-S10,3.5L,6cyl2926/33$2,1006PR HEV SSRC 300A-S8,2.0L,4cyl2521/31$2,4505PR TRC 300 AWDA-S6,3.5L,6cyl2219/26$2,8005PRRC 350A-S8,3.5L,6cyl2320/28$2,6505PRRC 350 AWDA-S6,3.5L,6cyl2219/26$2,8005PRRC FA-S8,5.0L,8cyl1916/24$3,2504PRMASERATIGrancabrio FolgoreA-18284/80$95010EVMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesGrancabrio TrofeoA-8,3.0L,6cyl2017/26$3,0504PR T CD SSGranturismo FolgoreA-18790/85$85010EVGranTurismo ModenaA-8,3.0L,6cyl2118/27$2,9004PR T CD SSGranTurismo TrofeoA-8,3.0L,6cyl2118/27$2,9004PR T CD SSMERCEDES-BENZAMG CLE53 4matic Plus(coupe)A-9,3.0L,6cyl2320/27$2,6505PR T S MHEV SSAMG GT 55 4matic Plus(coupe)A-9,4.0L,8cyl1613/20$3,8503PR T Tax SSAMG GT 63 4matic Plus(coupe)A-9,4.0L,8cyl1613/20$3,8503PR T Tax SSCLE300 4matic(Convertible)A-9,2.0L,4cyl2623/32$2,3505PR T MHEV SSCLE300 4matic(Coupe)A-9,2.0L,4cyl2824/34$2,2006PR T MHEV SSCLE450 4matic(Convertible)A-9,3.0L,6cyl2623/32$2,3505PR T S MHEV SSCLE450 4matic(Coupe)A-9,3.0L,6cyl2623/33$2,3505PR T S MHEV SSMINICooper Hardtop 2 door AM-S7,1.5L,3cyl3229/38$1,9006P T SSM-6,1.5L,3cyl3127/38$2,0006P T SSCooper Hardtop 4 door AM-S7,1.5L,3cyl3229/38$1,9006P T SSM-6,1.5L,3cyl3127/38$2,0006P T SSCooper S Hardtop 2 doorAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl3128/38$2,0006P T SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2723/33$2,2505P T SSCooper S Hardtop 4 doorAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl3128/38$2,0006P T SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2723/33$2,2505P T SSCooper SE Hardtop 2 doorA-1110119/100$70010EVJohn Cooper Works Hardtop 2 doorA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2926/35$2,1006P T SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2622/32$2,3505P T SSNISSANGT-RAM-S6,3.8L,6cyl1816/22$3,4004PR TTOYOTAGR CorollaM-6,1.6L,3cyl2421/28$2,5505PR TFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202415MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesCOMPACT CARSACURATLX AWD A-SPECA-S10,2.0L,4cyl2421/29$2,5505P T SSTLX FWDA-S10,2.0L,4cyl2522/31$2,4505P T SSTLX Type-SA-S10,3.0L,6cyl2119/25$2,9004P T CD SSAUDIA4 quattroAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl3026/35$2,0506P T MHEV SSA4 S line quattroAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2724/32$2,2505P T MHEV SSS4A-S8,3.0L,6cyl2421/29$2,5505P T SSBMW228i Gran CoupeA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2824/34$2,2006P T SS228i xDrive Gran CoupeA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2723/33$2,2505P T SS330e SedanA-S8,2.0L,4cylSee page 38.P T PHEV SS330e xDrive SedanA-S8,2.0L,4cylSee page 38.P T PHEV SS330i SedanA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2925/34$2,1006P T SS330i xDrive SedanA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2724/33$2,2505P T SS430i Gran CoupeA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2825/34$2,2006P T SS430i xDrive Gran CoupeA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2723/33$2,2505P T SSi5 eDrive40 Sedan(19 inch Wheels)A-1105104/105$70010EVi5 eDrive40 Sedan(20 inch Wheels)A-19999/98$75010EVi5 eDrive40 Sedan(21 inch Wheels)A-19697/94$80010EVi5 M60 xDrive Sedan(19 inch Wheels)A-19190/93$85010EVi5 M60 xDrive Sedan(20 inch Wheels)A-18989/90$85010EVi5 M60 xDrive Sedan(21 inch Wheels)A-18585/86$90010EVM235i xDrive Gran CoupeA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2724/33$2,2505P T SSM3 Competition M xDrive SedanA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1816/22$3,4004PR T SSM3 Competition SedanA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1916/23$3,2504PR T SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesM3 CS SedanA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1815/22$3,4004PR T SSM3 SedanM-6,3.0L,6cyl1916/23$3,2504PR TM340i SedanA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2623/31$2,3505P T MHEV SSM340i xDrive SedanA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2623/31$2,3505P T MHEV SSM440i Gran CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2724/32$2,2505P T MHEV SSM440i xDrive Gran CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2522/30$2,4505P T MHEV SSCADILLACCT4A-S8,2.0L,4cyl2622/32$2,3505PR T CD SSA-S10,2.7L,4cyl2521/31$2,4505PR T CD SSCT4 AWDA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2521/31$2,4505PR T CD SSA-S10,2.7L,4cyl2421/29$2,5505PR T CD SSCT4 VA-S10,2.7L,4cyl2320/29$2,6505PR T CD SSA-S10,3.6L,6cyl1916/24$3,2504PR TM-6,3.6L,6cyl1815/23$3,4004PR TCT4 V AWDA-S10,2.7L,4cyl2320/28$2,6505PR T CD SSGENESISG70 AWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2320/28$2,6505P TG70 RWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2421/29$2,5505P TLEXUSIS 300A-S8,2.0L,4cyl2521/31$2,4505PR TIS 300 AWDA-S6,3.5L,6cyl2219/26$2,8005PRIS 350A-S8,3.5L,6cyl2320/28$2,6505PRIS 350 AWDA-S6,3.5L,6cyl2219/26$2,8005PRIS 500A-S8,5.0L,8cyl2017/25$3,0504PRUX 250hAV-S6,2.0L,4cyl4243/41$1,1007MHEV SSUX 250h AWDAV-S6,2.0L,4cyl3941/38$1,2007MHEV SSMAZDA3 4-Door 2WDA-S6,2.5L,4cyl3127/37$1,5006CD3 4-Door 4WDA-S6,2.5L,4cyl3026/35$1,6006CDA-S6,2.5L,4cyl2723/32$1,7505T16MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesMERCEDES-BENZAMG C43 4maticA-9,2.0L,4cyl2320/28$2,6505PR T MHEV SSAMG CLA35 4maticAM-8,2.0L,4cyl2522/29$2,4505PR T MHEV SSAMG CLA45 S 4maticAM-8,2.0L,4cyl2320/28$2,6505PR T SSAMG GT 43 4matic PlusA-9,3.0L,6cyl2119/24$2,9004PR MHEV SSAMG GT 53 4matic PlusA-9,3.0L,6cyl2119/24$2,9004PR MHEV SSAMG GT 63 4matic PlusA-9,4.0L,8cyl1715/21$3,6003PR T CD SSC300A-9,2.0L,4cyl3026/36$2,0506PR T MHEV SSC300 4maticA-9,2.0L,4cyl2723/33$2,2505PR T MHEV SSCLA250AM-8,2.0L,4cyl3026/36$2,0506PR T MHEV SSCLA250 4maticAM-8,2.0L,4cyl2825/35$2,2006PR T MHEV SSMITSUBISHIMirageAV,1.2L,3cyl3936/43$1,2007Mirage G4AV,1.2L,3cyl3735/41$1,3007NISSANVersaAV,1.6L,4cyl3532/40$1,3507M-5,1.6L,4cyl3027/35$1,6006PORSCHETaycan 4S Performance BatteryA-28282/82$90010EVTaycan 4S Performance Battery PlusA-28079/81$95010EVTaycan GTSA-28383/82$90010EVTaycan GTS Sport TurismoA-28080/80$95010EVTaycan Performance BatteryA-28379/88$90010EVTaycan Performance Battery PlusA-28278/88$95010EVTaycan TurboA-28181/80$95010EVTaycan Turbo SA-27576/74$1,00010EVMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesROLLS-ROYCESpectre(22 inch wheels)A-18177/86$95010EVSpectre(23 inch wheels)A-17471/79$1,00010EVSpectre Black Badge(22 inch wheels)A-17874/84$95010EVSpectre Black Badge(23 inch wheels)A-17371/77$1,05010EVTOYOTACorollaAV-S10,2.0L,4cyl3532/41$1,3507AV-S10,2.0L,4cyl3431/40$1,40073-ModeCorolla HatchbackAV-S10,2.0L,4cyl3532/41$1,3507Corolla Hatchback XSEAV-S10,2.0L,4cyl3330/38$1,4506Corolla Hybrid AV,1.8L,4cyl5053/46$9508HEV SSAV,1.8L,4cyl4750/43$1,0008HEV SSCorolla Hybrid AWDAV,1.8L,4cyl4851/44$1,0008HEV SSAV,1.8L,4cyl4447/41$1,0508HEV SSMirai LimitedAV6567/64NA10H FCVMirai XLEAV7476/71NA10H FCVVOLKSWAGENGLIAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl3026/36$1,6006T SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2824/35$1,7006TGolf RAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2522/31$2,4505P T SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2320/28$2,6505P TGTIAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2724/33$1,7505T SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2723/34$1,7505TJettaA-S8,1.5L,4cyl3430/41$1,4007T SSM-6,1.5L,4cyl3429/42$1,4007TJetta Sport/SE/SELA-S8,1.5L,4cyl3329/40$1,4506T SSVOLVOS60 B5A-S8,2.0L,4cyl3026/35$2,0506PR T MHEV SSS60 B5 AWDA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2825/33$2,2006PR T MHEV SSS60 T8 AWD RechargeA-S8,2.0L,4cylSee page 38.PR T PHEV SSFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202417MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesMIDSIZE CARSALFA ROMEOGiuliaA-8,2.0L,4cyl2724/33$2,2505P T SSA-8,2.9L,6cyl2017/25$3,0504P T CD SSGiulia AWDA-8,2.0L,4cyl2623/31$2,3505P T SSAUDIA5 Sportback quattroAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl3026/35$2,0506P T MHEV SSA5 Sportback S line quattroAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2724/32$2,2505P T MHEV SSA6 quattroAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2623/33$2,3505P T MHEV SSAM-S7,3.0L,6cyl2522/30$2,4505P T MHEV SSA7 quattroAM-S7,3.0L,6cyl2522/30$2,4505P T MHEV SSe-tron GTA-28585/85$90010EVRS 5 SportbackA-S8,2.9L,6cyl2018/25$3,0504P TRS 7A-S8,4.0L,8cyl1714/22$3,6003P T Tax CD MHEVSSRS e-tron GTA-28585/85$90010EVS5 SportbackA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2320/29$2,6505P T SSS6A-S8,2.9L,6cyl2219/26$2,8005P MHEV SSS7A-S8,2.9L,6cyl2219/26$2,8005P MHEV SSBENTLEYFlying SpurAM-S8,4.0L,8cyl1715/20$3,6003PR T Tax CD SSAM-S8,6.0L,12cyl1512/19$4,1002P T Tax CD SSFlying Spur HybridAM-S8,2.9L,6cylSee page 38.P T PHEV SSBMW530i SedanA-S8,2.0L,4cyl3027/35$2,0506P T MHEV SS530i xDrive SedanA-S8,2.0L,4cyl3027/35$2,0506P T MHEV SS540i xDrive SedanA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2826/33$2,2006P T MHEV SS840i Gran CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2421/29$2,5505P T SS840i xDrive Gran CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2421/29$2,5505P T SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesAlpina B8 Gran CoupeA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1917/24$3,2504P T SSM8 Competition Gran CoupeA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1715/22$3,6003PR T Tax SSM850i xDrive Gran CoupeA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1917/24$3,2504P T SSCADILLACCT5A-S10,2.0L,4cyl2723/33$2,2505PR T CD SSA-S10,3.0L,6cyl2219/27$2,8005PR T CD SSCT5 AWDA-S10,2.0L,4cyl2522/30$2,4505PR T CD SSA-S10,3.0L,6cyl2118/26$2,9004PR T CD SSCT5 VA-S10,3.0L,6cyl2118/27$2,9004PR T CD SSA-S10,6.2L,8cyl1613/21$3,8503PR S Tax CDM-6,6.2L,8cyl1513/21$4,1002PR S TaxCT5 V AWDA-S10,3.0L,6cyl2118/26$2,9004PR T CD SSCHEVROLETMalibuAV,1.5L,4cyl3128/36$1,5006T SSGENESISElectried G80A-197105/89$80010EVHONDAAccord Hybrid Sport/TouringAV,2.0L,4cyl4446/41$1,0508HEV SSCivic 4DrAV,1.5L,4cyl3633/42$1,3007T SSAV-S7,1.5L,4cyl3431/38$1,4007T SSM-6,1.5L,4cyl3127/37$2,0006P T SSAV,2.0L,4cyl3531/40$1,3507SSAV-S7,2.0L,4cyl3330/37$1,4506SSHYUNDAIElantraAM-S7,1.6L,4cyl3128/35$1,5006TAV-S1,2.0L,4cyl3632/41$1,3007SSAV-S1,2.0L,4cyl3431/40$1,4007Elantra HybridAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl5049/52$9508HEV SSElantra Hybrid BlueAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl5451/58$9008HEV SSElantra NAM-S8,2.0L,4cyl2320/27$2,6505P TM-6,2.0L,4cyl2421/29$2,5505P TIoniq 6 Long range AWD(18 inch Wheels)A-1121130/111$60010EVIoniq 6 Long range AWD(20 inch Wheels)A-1103111/94$75010EV18MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesIoniq 6 Long range RWD(18 inch Wheels)A-1140153/127$55010EVIoniq 6 Long range RWD(20 inch Wheels)A-1117129/105$65010EVIoniq 6 Standard Range RWDA-1135151/120$55010EVINFINITIQ50A-S7,3.0L,6cyl2320/29$2,6505PR TQ50 AWDA-S7,3.0L,6cyl2219/27$2,8005PR TQ50 Red SportA-S7,3.0L,6cyl2220/26$2,8005PR TQ50 Red Sport AWDA-S7,3.0L,6cyl2219/26$2,8005PR TJAGUARXF P250A-S8,2.0L,4cyl2623/30$2,3505P T SSXF P300 AWDA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2421/28$2,5505P T SSKIAForteAM-S7,1.6L,4cyl3027/35$1,6006TM-6,1.6L,4cyl2622/31$1,8005TAV,2.0L,4cyl3228/39$1,5006Forte FEAV,2.0L,4cyl3430/41$1,4007LEXUSES 250 AWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2825/34$1,7006ES 300hAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl4443/44$1,0508HEV SSES 350A-S8,3.5L,6cyl2622/32$1,8005ES 350 F SportA-S8,3.5L,6cyl2522/31$1,9005LS 500A-S10,3.4L,6cyl2218/29$2,8005PR TLS 500 AWDA-S10,3.4L,6cyl2117/27$2,9004PR TLS 500h AWDAV-S10,3.5L,6cyl2522/29$2,4505PR HEV SSAV-S10,3.5L,6cyl2522/29$2,4505PR HEV SSMASERATIGhibli GTA-8,3.0L,6cyl2018/25$3,0504PR T SSGhibli Modena AWDA-8,3.0L,6cyl2017/25$3,0504PR T SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesGhibli Modena RWDA-8,3.0L,6cyl2018/25$3,0504PR T SSGhibli TrofeoA-8,3.8L,8cyl1613/20$3,8503PR T Tax SSMAZDA3 5-Door 2WDA-S6,2.5L,4cyl3027/35$1,6006CDM-6,2.5L,4cyl3026/36$1,6006CD3 5-Door 4WDA-S6,2.5L,4cyl2926/33$1,6506CDA-S6,2.5L,4cyl2623/31$1,8005TMERCEDES-BENZAMG EQE 4matic PlusA-17373/74$1,05010EV SSE350 4maticA-9,2.0L,4cyl2724/33$2,2505PR T MHEV SSE450 4maticA-9,3.0L,6cyl2522/31$2,4505PR T S MHEV SSEQE 350 4maticA-19086/96$85010EV SSEQE 350 PlusA-19698/94$80010EV SSEQE 500 4maticA-19698/94$80010EV SSMINICooper CountrymanAM-S7,1.5L,3cyl2826/32$2,2006P T SSCooper Countryman All4A-S8,1.5L,3cyl2623/31$2,3505P T SSCooper S ClubmanAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2925/35$2,1006P T SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2522/32$2,4505P T SSCooper S Clubman All4A-S8,2.0L,4cyl2723/32$2,2505P T SSCooper S CountrymanAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2824/33$2,2006P T SSCooper S Countryman All4A-S8,2.0L,4cyl2623/31$2,3505P T SSJCW Countryman All4A-S8,2.0L,4cyl2624/30$2,3505P T SSJohn Cooper Works Clubman All4A-S8,2.0L,4cyl2623/31$2,3505P T SSNISSANAltimaAV,2.5L,4cyl3227/39$1,5006Altima AWDAV,2.5L,4cyl3026/36$1,6006Altima SL/SRAV,2.5L,4cyl3127/37$1,5006FUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202419MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesAltima SRAV-S8,2.0L,4cyl2925/34$1,6506TKicksAV,1.6L,4cyl3331/36$1,4506LEAFA-1111123/99$70010EVLEAF SVA-1109121/98$70010EVSentraAV,2.0L,4cyl3430/40$1,4007SSSentra SRAV,2.0L,4cyl3330/38$1,4506SSPOLESTAR2 Dual Motor(19 Inch Wheels)A-1106112/100$70010EV2 Dual Motor(20 Inch Wheels)A-1102108/96$75010EV2 Dual Motor Performance PackA-195100/90$80010EV2 Single Motor(19 Inch Wheels)A-1115124/106$65010EV2 Single Motor(20 Inch Wheels)A-1111119/102$70010EVPORSCHETaycan 4 Cross TurismoA-28080/80$95010EVTaycan 4S Cross TurismoA-27878/78$95010EVTaycan Turbo Cross TurismoA-27980/78$95010EVTaycan Turbo S Cross TurismoA-27576/74$1,00010EVSUBARULegacy AWDAV-S8,2.4L,4cyl2623/31$1,8005T SSAV-S8,2.5L,4cyl3027/35$1,6006SSWRXAV-S8,2.4L,4cyl2118/25$2,9004P TM-6,2.4L,4cyl2219/26$2,8005P TTESLAModel 3 Long Range AWDA-1130137/124$60010EVModel 3 Long Range AWD-EA-1128133/122$60010EVModel 3 Long Range RWDA-1137145/128$55010EVModel 3 Performance AWDA-1112117/107$70010EVModel 3 RWDA-1132140/125$55010EVMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesTOYOTACamryA-S8,3.5L,6cyl2622/33$1,8005Camry AWD LE/SEA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2925/34$1,6506Camry AWD XLE/XSEA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2825/34$1,7006Camry Hybrid LEAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl5251/53$9008HEV SSCamry Hybrid SE/XLE/XSEAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl4644/47$1,0508HEV SSCamry LE/SEA-S8,2.5L,4cyl3228/39$1,5006Camry TRDA-S8,3.5L,6cyl2522/31$1,9005Camry XLE/XSEA-S8,2.5L,4cyl3127/38$1,5006Camry XSEA-S8,3.5L,6cyl2622/32$1,8005Crown AWDAV-S6,2.4L,4cyl3029/32$1,6006T HEV SSAV,2.5L,4cyl4142/41$1,1507HEV SSPrius AV,2.0L,4cyl5757/56$8508HEV SSPrius AWDAV,2.0L,4cyl5453/54$9008PT4 HEV SSPrius AWD XLE/LTDAV,2.0L,4cyl4949/50$9508PT4 HEV SSPrius PrimeAV,2.0L,4cylSee page 38.PHEV SSPrius Prime SEAV,2.0L,4cylSee page 38.PHEV SSPrius XLE/LTDAV,2.0L,4cyl5252/52$9008HEV SSVOLVOS90 B6 AWDA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2522/31$2,4505PR T S MHEV SSLARGE CARSACURAIntegraAV-S7,1.5L,4cyl3330/37$1,8506P T SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2421/28$2,5505P TIntegra A-SpecAV-S7,1.5L,4cyl3229/36$1,9006P T SSM-6,1.5L,4cyl3026/36$2,0506P T SSAUDIA8 quattroA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2219/28$2,8005P T MHEV SSS8A-S8,4.0L,8cyl1815/24$3,4004P T CD MHEV SS20MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesBMW740i SedanA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2825/31$2,2006P T MHEV SS740i xDrive SedanA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2724/31$2,2505P T MHEV SS760i xDrive SedanA-S8,4.4L,8cyl2018/25$3,0504P T MHEV SSi7 eDrive50 Sedan(19 inch Wheels)A-19087/95$85010EVi7 eDrive50 Sedan(20 inch Wheels)A-18683/90$90010EVi7 eDrive50 Sedan(21 inch Wheels)A-18886/92$85010EVi7 M70 xDrive Sedan(20 inch Wheels)A-17774/80$1,00010EVi7 M70 xDrive Sedan(21 inch Wheels)A-18179/85$95010EVi7 xDrive60 Sedan(19 inch wheels)A-19087/93$85010EVi7 xDrive60 Sedan(20 inch wheels)A-18482/87$90010EVi7 xDrive60 Sedan(21 inch wheels)A-18886/91$85010EVDODGECharger 2-Dr Daytona R/T AWD 18inA-18792/81$90010EVCharger 2-Dr Daytona R/T AWD 20in GoodyearA-18590/79$90010EVCharger 2-Dr Daytona R/T AWD 20in NexenA-198104/91$80010EVCharger 2-Dr Daytona Scat Pack Track Pack AWDA-17074/66$1,10010EVCharger 2-Dr Daytona Scat Pack Track Pack AWD A/SA-17882/73$1,00010EVGENESISG80 AWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2522/30$2,4505P T SSA-S8,3.5L,6cyl1917/25$3,2504P T SSG90 AWDA-S8,3.5L,6cyl2118/26$2,9004P T SSG90 MHEVA-S8,3.5L,6cyl2017/24$3,0504P T S MHEV SSHONDAAccordAV,1.5L,4cyl3229/37$1,5006T SSAccord Hybrid AV,2.0L,4cyl4851/44$1,0008HEV SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesCivic 5DrAV,1.5L,4cyl3531/39$1,3507T SSAV-S7,1.5L,4cyl3330/37$1,4506T SSM-6,1.5L,4cyl3128/37$1,5006T SSAV,2.0L,4cyl3330/38$1,4506SSAV-S7,2.0L,4cyl3229/37$1,5006SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2926/36$1,6506SSM-6,2.0L,4cyl2422/28$2,5505P THYUNDAISonata AWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2825/34$1,7006Sonata FWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2925/36$1,6506AM-S8,2.5L,4cyl2723/32$1,7505TSonata HybridAM-S6,2.0L,4cyl4744/51$1,0008HEV SSKIAK5A-S8,1.6L,4cyl3127/37$1,5006TAM-S8,2.5L,4cyl2724/32$1,7505TK5 AWDA-S8,1.6L,4cyl2825/33$1,7006TLUCIDAir G Touring XR AWD with 20 inch wheelsA-1121123/119$65010EVAir G Touring XR AWD with 21 inch wheelsA-1113115/111$65010EVAir G Touring XR AWD with19 inch wheelsA-1129130/128$60010EVAir Pure RWD with 19 inch wheels A-1137140/134$55010EVAir Pure RWD with 20 inch wheelsA-1130134/126$60010EVAir Sapphire AWDA-1105108/101$70010EVAir Touring AWD with 19 inch wheelsA-1133135/131$55010EVAir Touring AWD with 20 inch wheelsA-1123125/120$60010EVAir Touring AWD with 21inch wheelsA-1118121/114$65010EVMASERATIQuattroporte GTA-8,3.0L,6cyl1916/25$3,2504PR T SSQuattroporte Modena AWDA-8,3.0L,6cyl2017/25$3,0504PR T SSQuattroporte Modena RWDA-8,3.0L,6cyl1916/25$3,2504PR T SSQuattroporte TrofeoA-8,3.8L,8cyl1613/20$3,8503PR T Tax SSFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202421MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesMERCEDES-BENZAMG EQS 4matic PlusA-18279/85$90010EV SSEQS 450 4maticA-19593/98$80010EV SSEQS 450 PlusA-19695/98$80010EV SSEQS 580 4maticA-19695/98$80010EV SSMaybach S680 4maticA-9,6.0L,12cyl1512/20$4,1002PR T Tax SSS500 4maticA-9,3.0L,6cyl2421/31$2,5505PR T S MHEV SSS580 4maticA-9,4.0L,8cyl2118/27$2,9004PR T MHEV SSS580 4matic MaybachA-9,4.0L,8cyl2118/26$2,9004PR T MHEV SSPORSCHEPanameraAM-S8,2.9L,6cyl2118/25$2,9004PR T SSPanamera 4AM-S8,2.9L,6cyl2118/25$2,9004PR T SSROLLS-ROYCEGhostA-S8,6.7L,12cyl1412/19$4,4002P T TaxGhost Black BadgeA-S8,6.7L,12cyl1412/19$4,4002P T TaxGhost ExtendedA-S8,6.7L,12cyl1412/19$4,4002P T TaxPhantomA-S8,6.7L,12cyl1412/18$4,4002P T TaxPhantom ExtendedA-S8,6.7L,12cyl1412/18$4,4002P T TaxTESLAModel SA-1122127/116$60010EVModel S Plaid(19in wheels)A-1107111/103$70010EVModel S Plaid(21in wheels)A-196100/91$80010EVVOLKSWAGENArteon 4motionAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2522/30$2,4505P T SSSMALL STATION WAGONSAUDIA4 allroad quattroAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2623/30$2,3505P T MHEV SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesBUICKEnvistaA-6,1.2L,3cyl3028/32$1,6006T SSCHEVROLETTraxA-6,1.2L,3cyl3028/32$1,6006T SSHONDAHR-V AWDAV,2.0L,4cyl2725/30$1,7505HR-V FWDAV,2.0L,4cyl2826/32$1,7006KIASoulAV,2.0L,4cyl3027/33$1,6006SSSoul Eco dynamics AV,2.0L,4cyl3129/35$1,5006SSLAMBORGHINIUrus PerformanteA-S8,4.0L,8cyl1614/19$3,8503P T Tax CD SSMERCEDES-BENZAMG GLA35 4maticAM-8,2.0L,4cyl2422/28$2,5505PR T MHEV SSNISSANARIYA ENGAGE e-4ORCE 63kWhA-195101/89$80010EVARIYA ENGAGE FWD 63kWhA-1101109/94$75010EVARIYA ENGAGE /EVOLVE e-4ORCE 87kWhA-19297/86$80010EVARIYA EVOLVE /EMPOWER FWD 87kWhA-198105/91$75010EVARIYA PLATINUM e-4ORCE 87kWh 19in.WheelsA-19093/87$85010EVARIYA PLATINUM e-4ORCE 87kWh 20in.WheelsA-18789/84$85010EVARIYA VENTURE Plus FWD 87kWh A-1103111/95$75010EVSUBARUImprezaAV-S8,2.0L,4cyl3027/34$1,6006SSAV-S8,2.5L,4cyl2926/33$1,6506SSVOLVOV60CC B5 AWDA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2724/31$2,2505PR T MHEV SS22MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesMIDSIZE STATION WAGONSAUDIA6 Allroad quattro AM-S7,3.0L,6cyl2522/30$2,4505P T MHEV SSRS 6 AvantA-S8,4.0L,8cyl1714/22$3,6003P T Tax CD MHEVSSMERCEDES-BENZAMG GLB35 4maticAM-8,2.0L,4cyl2321/26$2,6505PR T MHEV SSE450 4matic All-Terrain(wagon)A-9,3.0L,6cyl2522/31$2,4505PR T S MHEV SSNISSANMurano AWDAV-S7,3.5L,6cyl2320/28$2,0505Murano FWDAV-S7,3.5L,6cyl2320/28$2,0505ROLLS-ROYCECullinanA-S8,6.7L,12cyl1412/19$4,4002P T TaxCullinan Black BadgeA-S8,6.7L,12cyl1412/19$4,4002P T TaxVOLVOV90CC B6 AWD A-S8,2.0L,4cyl2522/29$2,4505PR T S MHEV SSSMALL PICKUP TRUCKS 2WDCHEVROLETColorado 2WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl2220/24$2,1505T CD Late Mod YrSSA-8,2.7L,4cyl2119/24$2,2504T CD SSFORDMaverick FWDA-8,2.0L,4cyl2623/30$1,8005T SSMaverick HEV FWD AV,2.5L,4cyl3742/33$1,3007HEV SSGMCCanyon 2WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl2019/23$2,3504T CD SSTOYOTATacoma 2WDA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2320/26$2,0505TTacoma SR5/Sport/PreRunner 2WDA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2321/26$2,0505T SSA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2220/24$2,1505T 3-Mode SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesSMALL PICKUP TRUCKS 4WDCHEVROLETColorado 4WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl2018/23$2,3504T CD SSA-8,2.7L,4cyl2018/22$2,3504T CD Late Mod YrSSColorado Mud Terrain Tires 4WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl1817/20$2,6004T CD SSColorado ZR2 4WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl1717/17$2,8003T CD SSColorado ZR2 Bison 4WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl1616/16$2,9503T CD SSFORDMaverick AWDA-8,2.0L,4cyl2522/29$1,9005T SSMaverick Tremor AWDA-8,2.0L,4cyl2120/24$2,2504T SSGMCCanyon 4WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl1918/22$2,5004T CD SSCanyon AT4X 4WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl1717/17$2,8003T CD SSCanyon AT4X AEV 4WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl1616/16$2,9503T CD SSCanyon Mud Terrain Tires 4WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl1817/20$2,6004T CD SSTOYOTATacoma 4WDA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2119/24$2,2504T PT4Tacoma 4WD MTM-6,2.4L,4cyl2018/23$2,3504T PT4Tacoma SR5/Sport/Off-Road/Limited 4WDA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2119/24$2,2504T PT4A-S8,2.4L,4cyl2120/23$2,2504T PT4 3-Mode SSA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2119/23$2,2504T PT4 3-ModeSTANDARD PICKUP TRUCKS 2WDCHEVROLETSilverado 2WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl2018/22$2,3504T CD SSA-8,2.7L,4cyl1917/21$2,5004T CD S-Mode SS A-10,3.0L,6cyl2623/29$2,1005D T SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1816/22$2,6004CD SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1816/21$2,6004CD S-Mode SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1816/20$2,6004Gas CD1312/15$3,1504E85A-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/19$2,9503CDFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202423MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesFORDF150 Pickup 2WDA-S10,2.7L,6cyl2119/25$2,2504T SSA-S10,3.5L,6cyl2017/25$2,3504T SSA-S10,5.0L,8cyl1916/24$2,5004CD SSRanger 2WDA-S10,2.3L,4cyl2221/25$2,1505T SSGMCSierra 2WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl2018/22$2,3504T CD SSA-8,2.7L,4cyl1917/21$2,5004T CD S-Mode SSA-10,3.0L,6cyl2523/29$2,2005D T SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1816/21$2,6004CD SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1816/20$2,6004CD S-Mode SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1816/20$2,6004Gas CD1312/15$3,1504E85A-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/19$2,9503CDNISSANFrontier 2WDA-S9,3.8L,6cyl2118/24$2,2504SSTitan 2WDA-S9,5.6L,8cyl1715/21$3,6003PRAM1500 2WDA-8,3.6L,6cyl2220/25$2,1505MHEV SSA-8,5.7L,8cyl2018/23$2,8004Mid CD MHEV SS1500 Classic 2WDA-8,3.6L,6cyl2017/25$2,3504A-8,5.7L,8cyl1715/21$3,3003Mid CD1500 HFE 2WDA-8,3.6L,6cyl2320/26$2,0505MHEV SSTOYOTATundra 2WDA-S10,3.4L,6cyl2220/24$2,1505T HEV SSA-S10,3.4L,6cyl2220/24$2,8005PR T HEV SSA-S10,3.4L,6cyl2018/23$2,3504T SSA-S10,3.4L,6cyl2018/23$2,3504T 3-Mode SSA-S10,3.4L,6cyl2018/23$3,0504PR T SSA-S10,3.4L,6cyl2018/23$3,0504PR T 3-Mode SSSTANDARD PICKUP TRUCKS 4WDCHEVROLETSilverado 4WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl1918/21$2,5004T CD SSA-8,2.7L,4cyl1817/19$2,6004T CD S-Mode SSA-10,3.0L,6cyl2423/27$2,3004D T SSA-10,3.0L,6cyl2321/24$2,4004D T S-Mode SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/20$2,8003CD SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/19$2,9503CDA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/19$2,8003CD S-Mode SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/19$2,8003Gas CD1211/14$3,4003E85A-10,6.2L,8cyl1715/20$3,6003P CD SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesSilverado 4WD ZR2A-10,3.0L,6cyl2120/22$2,6504D T SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1514/17$4,1002P CD SSSilverado EVA-16772/62$1,15010EVA-16367/59$1,20010EVSilverado Mud Terrain Tires 4WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl1716/17$2,8003T CD S-Mode SSA-8,2.7L,4cyl1616/17$2,9503T CD SSA-10,3.0L,6cyl2221/23$2,5004D T SSA-10,3.0L,6cyl2221/23$2,5004D T S-Mode SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/19$2,9503CDA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/19$2,8003Gas CD1211/14$3,4003E85A-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/18$2,9503CD S-Mode SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/18$2,9503CD SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1514/17$4,1002P CD SSFORDF-150 Lightning 4WDA-16876/61$1,10010EVF-150 Lightning 4WD Extended RangeA-17078/63$1,10010EVF-150 Lightning Platinum 4WDA-16673/60$1,15010EVF-150 Lightning PRO 4WD Extended RangeA-17078/63$1,10010EVF150 Pickup 4WDA-S10,2.7L,6cyl2018/23$2,3504T PT4 SSA-S10,3.5L,6cyl1916/24$2,5004T PT4 SSA-S10,5.0L,8cyl1916/24$2,5004PT4 CD SSF150 Pickup 4WD HEVA-S10,3.5L,6cyl2322/24$2,0505T PT4 HEV SSF150 Pickup Tremor 4WDA-S10,3.5L,6cyl1816/21$2,6004T PT4 SSA-S10,5.0L,8cyl1715/20$2,8003PT4 CD SSF150 RAPTOR 4WDA-S10,3.5L,6cyl1614/18$2,9503T PT4 SSF150 RAPTOR R 4WDA-S10,5.2L,8cyl1210/15$3,9501S PT4Ranger 4WDA-S10,2.3L,4cyl2220/24$2,1505T PT4 SSA-S10,2.7L,6cyl2019/23$2,3504T PT4 SSRanger RAPTOR 4WDA-S10,3.0L,6cyl1716/18$2,8003T PT4 SSGMCHummer EV PickupA-15359/48$1,45010EVHummer EV Pickup 2M20A-15258/46$1,45010EVHummer EV Pickup MT TiresA-15055/45$1,40010EVHummer EV Pickup MT Tires 2M20A-14751/43$1,60010EV24MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesSierra 4WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl1817/20$2,6004T CD SSA-8,2.7L,4cyl1717/18$2,8003T CD S-Mode SSA-10,3.0L,6cyl2423/27$2,3004D T SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/20$2,8003CD SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/19$2,9503CDA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/19$2,8003CD S-Mode SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/19$2,8003Gas CD1211/14$3,4003E85A-10,6.2L,8cyl1615/19$3,8503P CD SSSierra 4WD AT4XA-10,3.0L,6cyl1919/20$2,9003D T SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1514/16$4,1002P CD SSSierra Mud Terrain Tires 4WDA-8,2.7L,4cyl1616/17$2,9503T CD SSA-10,3.0L,6cyl2221/23$2,5004D T SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/19$2,9503CDA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/19$2,8003Gas CD1211/14$3,4003E85A-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/18$2,9503CD S-Mode SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/18$2,9503CD SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1514/17$4,1002P CD SSHONDARidgeline AWDA-S9,3.5L,6cyl2118/24$2,2504CD SSRidgeline AWD TrailSportA-S9,3.5L,6cyl2018/23$2,3504CD SSJEEPGladiator 4WDA-8,3.6L,6cyl1917/22$2,5004SSM-6,3.6L,6cyl1816/21$2,6004SSNISSANFrontier 4WDA-S9,3.8L,6cyl2018/23$2,3504PT4 SSFrontier 4WD PRO4XA-S9,3.8L,6cyl1918/22$2,5004PT4 SSTitan 4WDA-S9,5.6L,8cyl1715/21$3,6003P PT4Titan 4WD PRO4XA-S9,5.6L,8cyl1614/20$3,8503P PT4RAM1500 4WDA-8,3.6L,6cyl2119/24$2,2504MHEV SSA-8,5.7L,8cyl1918/22$2,9504Mid CD MHEV SS1500 Classic 4WDA-8,3.6L,6cyl1916/23$2,5004A-8,5.7L,8cyl1715/20$3,3003Mid CD1500 TRX 4WDA-8,6.2L,8cyl1210/14$5,1001P SRIVIANR1T All-Terrain Dual Large(20in)A-16872/64$1,10010PT4 EVMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesR1T All-Terrain Dual Max(20in)A-17378/67$1,05010PT4 EVR1T All-Terrain Dual Standard Plus(20in)A-16568/62$1,15010PT4 EVR1T All-Terrain Performance Dual Large(20in)A-16872/64$1,10010PT4 EVR1T All-Terrain Performance Dual Max(20in)A-17378/67$1,05010PT4 EVR1T All-Terrain Quad Large(20in)A-16365/60$1,20010EVR1T AT Performance Dual Standard Plus(20in)A-16568/62$1,15010PT4 EVR1T Dual Large(21in)A-17882/74$95010PT4 EVR1T Dual Large(22in)A-17680/71$1,00010PT4 EVR1T Dual Max(21in)A-18491/77$90010PT4 EVR1T Dual Max(22in)A-17884/72$95010PT4 EVR1T Dual Standard(21in)A-17578/71$1,00010PT4 EVR1T Dual Standard(22in)A-17074/66$1,10010PT4 EVR1T Dual Standard Plus(21in)A-17780/74$1,00010PT4 EVR1T Dual Standard Plus(22in)A-17276/68$1,05010PT4 EVR1T Performance Dual Large(21in)A-17882/74$95010PT4 EVR1T Performance Dual Large(22in)A-17680/71$1,00010PT4 EVR1T Performance Dual Max(21in)A-18491/77$90010PT4 EVR1T Performance Dual Max(22in)A-17884/72$95010PT4 EVR1T Performance Dual Standard Plus(21in)A-17780/74$1,00010PT4 EVR1T Performance Dual Standard Plus(22in)A-17276/68$1,05010PT4 EVR1T Quad Large(20in)A-16469/60$1,20010EVR1T Quad Large(21in)A-17376/69$1,05010EVR1T Quad Large(22in)A-16873/63$1,10010EVTOYOTATacoma Hybrid 4WDA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2423/24$1,9505T HEV SSA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2322/24$2,0505T PT4 HEV SSFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202425MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesTundra 4WDA-S10,3.4L,6cyl1917/23$2,5004T PT4 SSA-S10,3.4L,6cyl1917/23$3,2504PR T PT4 SSA-S10,3.4L,6cyl1917/22$2,5004T PT4 3-Mode SSA-S10,3.4L,6cyl2019/22$2,3504T PT4 HEV SSA-S10,3.4L,6cyl2019/22$3,0504PR T PT4 HEV SSTundra 4WD PROA-S10,3.4L,6cyl1918/20$2,5004T PT4 HEV SSA-S10,3.4L,6cyl1918/20$3,2504PR T PT4 HEV SSSPECIAL PURPOSE VEHICLES 2WDCADILLACXT5 Hearse FWDA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2120/23$2,9004PR T CD SSXT5 Limo FWDA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2120/23$2,9004PR T CD SSCHEVROLETSilverado Cab Chassis 2WDA-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/18$2,9503CD SSGMCSierra Cab Chassis 2WDA-10,5.3L,8cyl1514/17$3,1502CD SSMERCEDES-BENZGLA250AM-8,2.0L,4cyl2825/34$2,2006PR T MHEV SSGLB250AM-8,2.0L,4cyl2825/33$2,2006PR T MHEV SSSPECIAL PURPOSE VEHICLES 4WDCADILLACXT5 Hearse AWDA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2120/23$2,9004PR T CD SSXT5 Limo AWDA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2120/23$2,9004PR T CD SSCHEVROLETSilverado Cab Chassis 4WDA-10,5.3L,8cyl1514/17$3,1502CD SSGMCSierra Cab Chassis 4WDA-10,5.3L,8cyl1514/17$3,1502CD SSVINFASTVF 9 EcoA-17579/71$1,00010EVVF 9 PlusA-16971/66$1,10010EVMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesMINIVANS 2WDCHRYSLERPacicaA-9,3.6L,6cyl2219/28$2,1505SSPacica Hybrid AV,3.6L,6cylSee page 38.PHEV SSVoyagerA-9,3.6L,6cyl2219/28$2,1505SSHONDAOdysseyA-S10,3.5L,6cyl2219/28$2,1505CD SSKIACarnivalA-S8,3.5L,6cyl2219/26$2,1505TOYOTASienna 2WD AV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3636/36$1,3007HEV SSMINIVANS 4WDCHRYSLERPacica AWDA-9,3.6L,6cyl2017/25$2,3504SSTOYOTASienna AWDAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3535/36$1,3507HEV SSSMALL SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 2WDACURAMDX FWDA-S10,3.5L,6cyl2219/26$2,8005P CD SSALFA ROMEOStelvioA-8,2.0L,4cyl2522/29$2,4505P T SSBMWX3 sDrive30iA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2523/29$2,4505P T SSBUICKEncore GX FWDAV,1.2L,3cyl3030/31$1,6006T SSAV,1.3L,3cyl3029/31$1,6006T SSCADILLACLYRIQA-18895/82$85010EV26MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesXT4 FWDA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2624/29$2,3505PR T CD SSXT5 FWDA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2422/29$2,5505PR T CD SSA-S9,3.6L,6cyl2119/26$2,2504CD SSXT6 FWDA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2321/27$2,6505PR T CD SSA-S9,3.6L,6cyl2119/26$2,2504CD SSCHEVROLETBlazer EV RWDA-19299/84$80010EVBlazer FWDA-9,2.0L,4cyl2522/29$1,9005T CD SSA-9,3.6L,6cyl2219/26$2,1505CD SSEquinox EV FWDA-1108117/99$70010EVEquinox FWDA-6,1.5L,4cyl2826/31$1,7006T SSTrailblazer FWDAV,1.3L,3cyl3129/33$1,5006T SSFORDEscape FWDA-8,1.5L,3cyl3027/34$1,6006T SSEscape FWD HEVAV,2.5L,4cyl3942/36$1,2007HEV SSMustang Mach-E RWDA-1102106/98$75010EVMustang Mach-E RWD ExtendedA-1106111/100$70010EVGENESISGV60 StandardA-1112125/99$70010EVGMCTerrain FWDA-9,1.5L,4cyl2624/29$1,8005T SSHONDACR-V FWDAV,1.5L,4cyl3028/34$1,6006T SSAV,2.0L,4cyl4043/36$1,2007HEV SSPilot FWDA-S10,3.5L,6cyl2219/27$2,1505CD SSHYUNDAIIoniq 5 Long range RWDA-1114132/98$70010EVIoniq 5 Standard range RWDA-1110127/94$70010EVKona Electric Long RangeA-1116129/103$65010EVMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesKona Electric Standard RangeA-1118131/105$65010EVKona FWDA-S8,1.6L,4cyl2826/32$1,7006TAV-S1,2.0L,4cyl3128/35$1,5006AV-S1,2.0L,4cyl3129/34$1,5006SSNexoA-15759/54NA10H FCVNexo BlueA-16165/58NA10H FCVPalisade FWDA-S8,3.8L,6cyl2219/26$2,1505SSSanta Cruz FWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2322/26$2,0505Santa Fe FWDAM-S8,2.5L,4cyl2420/29$1,9505T SSSanta Fe Hybrid FWDAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl3636/35$1,3007T HEV SSTucson FWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2825/32$1,7006SSVenueAV-S1,1.6L,4cyl3129/33$1,5006INFINITIQX50AV-S8,2.0L,4cyl2623/29$2,3505PR TKIAEV6 Long Range RWDA-1117134/101$65010EVEV6 Standard Range RWDA-1117136/100$65010EVNiroAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl4953/45$9508HEV SSNiro ElectricA-1113126/101$65010EVNiro FE AM-S6,1.6L,4cyl5353/54$9008HEV SSSeltos FWDAV-S8,2.0L,4cyl3128/34$1,5006SSSorento FWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2623/31$1,8005SSAM-S8,2.5L,4cyl2320/29$2,0505T SSSorento Hybrid FWDAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl3739/35$1,3007T HEV SSSportage FWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2825/33$1,7006SSTelluride FWDA-S8,3.8L,6cyl2220/26$2,1505SSLEXUSNX 250A-S8,2.5L,4cyl2826/33$1,7006SSFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202427MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesRX 350A-S8,2.4L,4cyl2522/29$2,4505PR T SSRZ 300e(18 inch wheels)A-1125137/112$60010EVRZ 300e(20 inch wheels)A-1105114/96$70010EVLINCOLNCorsair FWDA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2522/30$1,9005T SSMERCEDES-BENZEQB 250 PlusA-1107114/100$70010EV SSGLC300A-9,2.0L,4cyl2926/33$2,1006PR T MHEV SSMITSUBISHIEclipse Cross 2WDAV-S8,1.5L,4cyl2625/28$1,8005TOutlander 2WDAV-S8,2.5L,4cyl2724/31$1,7505Outlander Sport 2WDAV-S6,2.0L,4cyl2724/30$1,7505NISSANPathnder 2WDA-S9,3.5L,6cyl2320/27$2,0505SSRogue FWDAV-S8,1.5L,3cyl3330/37$1,4506T SSRogue FWD SL/PlatinumAV-S8,1.5L,3cyl3229/36$1,5006T SSTESLAModel Y Long Range RWDA-1120128/112$65010EVModel Y RWDA-1120128/112$65010EVTOYOTAbZ4XA-1119131/107$65010EVbZ4X LimitedA-1112121/102$70010EVCorolla CrossAV-S10,2.0L,4cyl3231/33$1,5006SSHighlanderA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2522/29$1,9005T SSA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2421/28$1,9505THighlander HybridAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3636/35$1,3007HEV SSRAV4A-S8,2.5L,4cyl3027/35$1,6006SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesVOLKSWAGENAtlasA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2320/27$2,0505T SSAtlas Cross SportA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2320/27$2,0505T SSID.4A-1107115/98$70010EVID.4 ProA-1113122/104$65010EVID.4 Pro SA-1113122/104$65010EVID.4 SA-1107115/98$70010EVTaosA-S8,1.5L,4cyl3128/36$1,5006T SSTiguanA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2623/30$1,8005T SSTiguan SA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2724/31$1,7505T SSVOLVOC40 RechargeA-1107118/96$70010EVXC40 RechargeA-1106118/95$70010EVSMALL SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 4WDACURAMDX AWDA-S10,3.5L,6cyl2119/25$2,9004P CD SSRDX AWDA-S10,2.0L,4cyl2321/27$2,6505P T SSRDX AWD A-SPECA-S10,2.0L,4cyl2321/26$2,6505P T SSALFA ROMEOStelvio AWDA-8,2.0L,4cyl2422/28$2,5505P T SSA-8,2.9L,6cyl1917/23$3,2504P T CD SSTonale eAWDA-6,1.3L,4cylSee page 38.T PHEVAUDIQ3 quattroA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2522/29$1,9005T SSQ3 S line quattroA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2320/28$2,0505T SSQ5 quattroAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2623/29$2,3505P T MHEV SSQ5 S line quattroAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2422/28$2,5505P T MHEV SSQ5 Sportback S line quattroAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2422/28$2,5505P T MHEV SS28MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesSQ5A-S8,3.0L,6cyl2119/24$2,9004P T SSSQ5 SportbackA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2119/24$2,9004P T SSBMWX1 M35iAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2623/31$2,3505P T SSX1 xDrive28iAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2825/34$2,2006P T SSX2 M35iAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2623/32$2,3505P T SSX2 xDrive28iAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2824/33$2,2006P T SSX3 MA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1715/20$3,6003P T SSX3 M CompetitionA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1715/20$3,6003P T SSX3 M40iA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2321/26$2,6505P T MHEV SSX3 xDrive30iA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2421/28$2,5505P T SSX4 MA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1715/20$3,6003P T SSX4 M CompetitionA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1715/20$3,6003P T SSX4 M40iA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2321/26$2,6505P T MHEV SSX4 xDrive30iA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2421/28$2,5505P T SSBUICKEncore GX AWDA-9,1.3L,3cyl2726/28$1,7505T SSEnvision AWDA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2422/28$1,9505T CD SSCADILLACLYRIQ AWDA-18996/81$85010EVXT4 AWDA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2523/28$2,4505PR T CD SSXT5 AWDA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2321/27$2,6505PR T CD SSA-S9,3.6L,6cyl2118/26$2,2504CD SSXT6 AWDA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2321/26$2,6505PR T CD SSA-S9,3.6L,6cyl2118/25$2,2504CD SSCHEVROLETBlazer AWDA-9,2.0L,4cyl2422/27$1,9505T CD SSA-9,3.6L,6cyl2118/26$2,2504CD SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesBlazer EV AWDA-196103/88$80010EVEquinox AWDA-6,1.5L,4cyl2624/30$1,8005T SSEquinox EV AWDA-196101/90$80010EVTrailblazer AWDA-9,1.3L,3cyl2726/29$1,7505T SSDODGEHornet AWDA-9,2.0L,4cyl2421/29$1,9505T SSHornet PHEV AWDA-6,1.3L,4cylSee page 38.T PHEVFORDBronco 4WDA-S10,2.3L,4cyl2020/21$2,3504T PT4 SSM-7,2.3L,4cyl2020/21$2,3504T PT4 SSA-S10,2.7L,6cyl2019/21$2,3504T PT4 SSBronco Badlands 4WDM-7,2.3L,4cyl1716/18$2,8003T PT4 SSA-S10,2.7L,6cyl1717/17$2,8003T PT4 SSBronco Black Diamond 4WDA-S10,2.3L,4cyl1818/18$2,6004T PT4 SSM-7,2.3L,4cyl1716/18$2,8003T PT4 SSA-S10,2.7L,6cyl1818/18$2,6004T PT4 SSBronco Sasquatch 4WDA-S10,2.3L,4cyl1818/17$2,6004T PT4 SSM-7,2.3L,4cyl1716/18$2,8003T PT4 SSA-S10,2.7L,6cyl1717/17$2,8003T PT4 SSBronco Sport 4WDA-8,1.5L,3cyl2625/29$1,8005T CD SSA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2321/26$2,0505T PT4 SSEdge AWDA-8,2.0L,4cyl2321/28$2,0505T SSA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2321/28$2,0505T SSA-S8,2.7L,6cyl2119/25$2,2504T SSEscape AWDA-8,1.5L,3cyl2826/32$1,7006T SSA-8,2.0L,4cyl2623/31$1,8005T SSEscape AWD HEVAV,2.5L,4cyl3942/36$1,2007PT4 HEV SSMustang Mach-E AWDA-19195/88$85010EVMustang Mach-E AWD ExtendedA-199103/94$75010EVMustang Mach-E GTA-19095/85$85010EVMustang Mach-E RallyA-18690/81$90010EVGENESISElectried GV70A-19198/83$85010EVFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202429MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesGV60 Advanced(19 inch Wheels)A-1100110/90$75010EVGV60 Advanced(20 inch Wheels)A-195103/86$80010EVGV60 PERFORMANCEA-19097/82$85010EVGV70 AWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2422/28$2,5505P T SSA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2219/26$2,8005P T 5-Mode SSA-S8,3.5L,6cyl2018/24$3,0504P T SSGMCTerrain AWDA-9,1.5L,4cyl2523/28$1,9005T SSHONDACR-V AWDAV,1.5L,4cyl2927/32$1,6506T SSAV,2.0L,4cyl3740/34$1,3007HEV SSPassport AWDA-S9,3.5L,6cyl2119/24$2,2504CD SSHYUNDAIIoniq 5 Long range AWDA-199110/88$75010EVKona AWDA-S8,1.6L,4cyl2624/29$1,8005TAV-S1,2.0L,4cyl2827/29$1,7006SSAV-S1,2.0L,4cyl2726/29$1,7505Palisade AWDA-S8,3.8L,6cyl2119/24$2,2504SSSanta Cruz AWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2321/25$2,0505AM-S8,2.5L,4cyl2219/27$2,1505TSanta Fe AWDAM-S8,2.5L,4cyl2320/28$2,0505T SSSanta Fe AWD XRTAM-S8,2.5L,4cyl2219/26$2,1505T SSSanta Fe Hybrid AWDAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl3435/34$1,4007T HEV SSTucson AWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2523/29$1,9005Tucson HybridAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl3737/36$1,3007T HEV SSTucson Hybrid BlueAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl3838/38$1,2507T HEV SSTucson Plug-in HybridAM-S6,1.6L,4cylSee page 38.T PHEV SSINFINITIQX50 AWDAV-S8,2.0L,4cyl2522/28$2,4505PR TQX55 AWDAV-S8,2.0L,4cyl2522/28$2,4505PR TMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesJAGUARE-PaceA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2320/26$2,6505P T SSF-PaceA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2422/27$2,5505P T SSF-Pace P400 MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2119/25$2,9004P T S MHEV SSF-Pace SVRA-S8,5.0L,8cyl1715/21$3,6003P S SSI-Pace EV400(20 inch tires)A-18589/82$90010EVI-Pace EV400(22 inch tires)A-17679/72$1,00010EVJEEPCompass 4WDA-8,2.0L,4cyl2724/32$1,7505T SSWrangler 2dr 4WDA-8,2.0L,4cyl2120/23$2,2504T SSA-8,3.6L,6cyl2018/24$2,3504SSM-6,3.6L,6cyl1917/23$2,5004SSWrangler 4dr 4WDA-8,2.0L,4cyl2120/22$2,2504T SSA-8,3.6L,6cyl2018/23$2,3504SSM-6,3.6L,6cyl1916/22$2,5004SSA-8,6.4L,8cyl1413/16$4,4002P CDWrangler 4dr 4xeA-8,2.0L,4cylSee page 38.T PHEV SSWrangler Rubicon 2dr 4WDA-8,3.6L,6cyl1816/20$2,6004SSWrangler Rubicon 4dr 4WDA-8,3.6L,6cyl1716/19$2,8003SSKIAEV6 AWD GTA-18388/77$90010EVEV6 Long Range AWD(19 inch Wheels)A-1109120/98$70010EVEV6 Long Range AWD(20 inch Wheels)A-196106/86$80010EVSeltos AWDA-S8,1.6L,4cyl2625/27$1,8005TAV-S8,2.0L,4cyl2927/31$1,6506SSSorento AWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2523/28$1,9005SSAM-S8,2.5L,4cyl2320/27$2,0505T SSSorento Hybrid AWDAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl3436/33$1,4007T HEV SSSorento Plug-in HybridAM-S6,1.6L,4cylSee page 38.T PHEV SSSportage AWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2523/26$1,9005SSSportage Hybrid AWDAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl3838/38$1,2507T HEV SS30MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesSportage Hybrid FWDAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl4342/44$1,1008T HEV SSSportage Plug-in HybridAM-S6,1.6L,4cylSee page 38.T PHEV SSSportage X-proA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2623/30$1,8005SSTelluride AWDA-S8,3.8L,6cyl2018/24$2,3504SSLAND ROVERDiscovery SportA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2019/23$3,0504P T SSRange Rover EvoqueA-S9,2.0L,4cyl2220/27$2,8005P T SSRange Rover VelarA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2322/26$2,6505P T SSRange Rover Velar P340 MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2219/26$2,8005P T S MHEV SSRange Rover Velar P400 MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2119/25$2,9004P T S MHEV SSLEXUSNX 250 AWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2825/32$1,7006SSNX 350 AWDA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2421/28$2,5505PR T SSNX 350 AWD F SportA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2421/28$2,5505PR T SSNX 350h AWDAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3941/37$1,5507P HEV SSNX 450h Plus AWDAV-S6,2.5L,4cylSee page 38.P PHEV SSRX 350 AWDA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2421/28$2,5505PR T SSRX 350h AWDAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3637/34$1,7007P HEV SSRX 500h AWDAV-S6,2.4L,4cyl2727/28$2,2505PR T HEV SSRZ 450e AWD(18 inch wheels)A-1107115/98$70010EVRZ 450e AWD(20 inch wheels)A-195102/87$80010EVLINCOLNCorsair AWDA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2421/28$1,9505T SSNautilus AWDA-8,2.0L,4cyl2421/29$1,9505T SSNautilus HEV AWDAV,2.0L,4cyl3030/31$1,6006T PT4 HEV SSMASERATIGrecale GTA-8,2.0L,4cyl2522/29$2,4505P T MHEV SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesGrecale ModenaA-8,2.0L,4cyl2522/29$2,4505P T MHEV SSGrecale TrofeoA-8,3.0L,6cyl2018/25$3,0504PR T CD SSMAZDACX-30 4WDA-S6,2.5L,4cyl2926/33$1,6506CDA-S6,2.5L,4cyl2522/30$1,9005TCX-5 4WDA-S6,2.5L,4cyl2826/31$1,7006CD SSA-S6,2.5L,4cyl2523/29$1,9005A-S6,2.5L,4cyl2422/27$1,9505TCX-50 4WDA-S6,2.5L,4cyl2724/30$1,7505CDA-S6,2.5L,4cyl2523/29$1,9005T SSMERCEDES-BENZAMG GLC43 4maticA-9,2.0L,4cyl2119/25$2,9004PR T MHEV SSAMG GLC43 4matic CoupeA-9,2.0L,4cyl2118/24$2,9004PR T MHEV SSEQB 300 4maticA-18789/85$85010EV SSEQB 350 4maticA-18789/85$85010EV SSGLA250 4maticAM-8,2.0L,4cyl2724/32$2,2505PR T MHEV SSGLB250 4maticAM-8,2.0L,4cyl2724/32$2,2505PR T MHEV SSGLC300 4maticA-9,2.0L,4cyl2724/32$2,2505PR T MHEV SSGLC300 4matic CoupeA-9,2.0L,4cyl2624/30$2,3505PR T MHEV SSGLE350A-9,2.0L,4cyl2421/28$2,5505PR T MHEV SSGLE350 4maticA-9,2.0L,4cyl2320/27$2,6505PR T MHEV SSMITSUBISHIEclipse Cross 4WDAV-S8,1.5L,4cyl2525/26$1,9005TEclipse Cross ES 4WDAV-S8,1.5L,4cyl2625/28$1,8005TOutlander 4WDAV-S8,2.5L,4cyl2624/30$1,8005Outlander Sport 4WDAV-S6,2.0L,4cyl2623/29$1,8005AV-S6,2.4L,4cyl2523/28$1,9005NISSANPathnder 4WDA-S9,3.5L,6cyl2321/27$2,0505SSPathnder 4WD Rock CreekA-S9,3.5L,6cyl2120/23$2,9004P SSFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202431MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesRogue AWDAV-S8,1.5L,3cyl3128/35$1,5006T SSRogue AWD SL/PlatinumAV-S8,1.5L,3cyl3128/34$1,5006T SSPORSCHEMacanAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2119/25$2,9004PR T SSMacan 4 ElectricA-198107/89$80010EVMacan GTSAM-S7,2.9L,6cyl1917/22$3,2504PR T SSMacan SAM-S7,2.9L,6cyl1917/23$3,2504PR T SSMacan TAM-S7,2.0L,4cyl2119/25$2,9004PR T SSMacan Turbo ElectricA-19199/84$85010EVSUBARUCrosstrek AWDAV-S8,2.0L,4cyl2927/34$1,6506SSAV-S8,2.5L,4cyl2926/33$1,6506SSCrosstrek Wilderness AWDAV-S8,2.5L,4cyl2725/29$1,7505SSForester AWDAV-S8,2.5L,4cyl2926/33$1,6506SSForester Wilderness AWDAV-S8,2.5L,4cyl2625/28$1,8005SSOutback AWDAV-S8,2.4L,4cyl2522/29$1,9005T SSAV-S8,2.5L,4cyl2826/32$1,7006SSOutback Wilderness AWDAV-S8,2.4L,4cyl2321/26$2,0505T SSSolterra AWDA-1104114/94$70010EVSolterra Limited/Touring AWDA-1102111/93$75010EVTESLAModel Y Long Range AWDA-1117122/112$65010EVModel Y Long Range AWD-IA-1118123/112$65010EVModel Y Performance AWDA-1105111/98$70010EVTOYOTAbZ4X AWDA-1104114/94$70010EVbZ4X Limited AWDA-1102112/92$75010EVCorolla Cross AWDAV-S10,2.0L,4cyl3029/31$1,6006SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesCorolla Cross Hybrid AWDAV-S6,2.0L,4cyl4245/38$1,1007HEV SSHighlander AWDA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2421/28$1,9505T SSRAV4 AWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2927/33$1,6506SSA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2825/33$1,7006RAV4 AWD LEA-S8,2.5L,4cyl3027/34$1,6006SSRAV4 AWD TRD OFFROADA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2825/32$1,7006RAV4 Hybrid AWDAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3941/38$1,2007HEV SSRAV4 Hybrid AWD Woodland EditionAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3738/35$1,3007HEV SSRAV4 Prime 4WDAV-S6,2.5L,4cylSee page 38.PHEV SSVenza AWDAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3940/37$1,2007HEV SSVOLKSWAGENAtlas 4motion Peak EditionA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2018/24$2,3504T SSAtlas Cross Sport 4motionA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2219/26$2,1505T SSAtlas SE 4motionA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2219/26$2,1505T SSAtlas SEL 4motionA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2119/25$2,2504T SSID.4 AWD ProA-1102108/96$75010EVID.4 AWD Pro SA-1102108/96$75010EVTaos 4motionAM-S7,1.5L,4cyl2724/32$1,7505T SSTiguan 4motionA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2522/29$1,9005T SSTiguan R-Line 4motionA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2422/29$1,9505T SSVOLVOC40 Recharge twinA-199106/91$75010EVXC40 B5 AWDA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2624/30$2,3505PR T MHEV SSXC40 Recharge twinA-198106/90$80010EVXC60 B5 AWDA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2522/28$2,4505PR T MHEV SSXC60 T8 AWD RechargeA-S8,2.0L,4cylSee page 38.PR T PHEV SS32MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesSTANDARD SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 2WDACURAZDX AWDA-18794/80$85010EVZDX AWD Type SA-17883/74$95010EVZDX RWDA-19096/83$85010EVAUDIQ4 40 e-tron A-1103112/94$75010EVBMWX5 sDrive40iA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2523/27$2,4505P T MHEV SSBUICKEnclave FWDA-9,3.6L,6cyl2118/26$2,2504SSCADILLACEscalade 2WDA-10,3.0L,6cyl2321/27$2,4004D T SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1614/19$3,8503PR CD SSCHEVROLETSuburban 2WDA-10,3.0L,6cyl2321/27$2,4004D T SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/20$2,8003CD SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1614/20$3,8503PR CD SSTahoe 2WDA-10,3.0L,6cyl2421/28$2,3004D T SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/20$2,8003CD SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1614/20$3,8503PR CD SSTraverse FWDA-8,2.5L,4cyl2320/27$2,0505T SSTraverse Limited FWDA-9,3.6L,6cyl2118/26$2,2504SSDODGEDurango RWDA-8,3.6L,6cyl2119/26$2,2504SSA-8,5.7L,8cyl1714/22$3,3003Mid CDFISKEROcean Sport 20inA-192104/81$80010EVOcean Sport 22inA-17982/75$95010EVFORDExpedition 2WDA-S10,3.5L,6cyl1917/23$2,5004T SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesExplorer RWDA-10,2.3L,4cyl2421/28$1,9505T SSA-10,3.0L,6cyl2118/26$2,2504T SSA-S10,3.0L,6cyl2018/25$2,3504T SSGMCAcadia FWDA-8,2.5L,4cyl2320/27$2,0505T SSYukon 2WDA-10,3.0L,6cyl2321/27$2,4004D T SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/20$2,8003CD SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1614/20$3,8503PR CD SSYukon XL 2WDA-10,3.0L,6cyl2321/27$2,4004D T SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/20$2,8003CD SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1614/19$3,8503PR CD SSHONDAPrologue FWDA-199107/91$75010EVINFINITIQX60 FWDA-S9,3.5L,6cyl2321/26$2,6505P SSQX80 2WDA-S7,5.6L,8cyl1614/20$3,8503PJEEPGrand Cherokee 2WDA-8,3.6L,6cyl2219/26$2,1505SSGrand Cherokee L 2WDA-8,3.6L,6cyl2119/26$2,2504SSWagoneer 2WDA-8,3.0L,6cyl2017/24$2,3504T SSWagoneer L 2WDA-8,3.0L,6cyl2017/24$2,3504T SSKIAEV9 Long Range RWDA-189100/78$85010EVEV9 Standard Range RWDA-18899/77$85010EVLEXUSTX 350A-S8,2.4L,4cyl2321/27$2,6505PR T SSLINCOLNAviator RWDA-S10,3.0L,6cyl2118/26$2,2504T SSMERCEDES-BENZEQE 350 Plus(SUV)A-19499/88$80010EV SSEQS 450 Plus(SUV)A-18688/83$85010EV SSFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202433MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesNISSANArmada 2WDA-S7,5.6L,8cyl1614/19$3,8503PTOYOTA4Runner 2WDA-S5,4.0L,6cyl1716/19$2,8003Grand Highlander Hybrid AV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3637/34$1,3007HEV SSGrand Highlander Hybrid LimitedAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3436/32$1,4007HEV SSGrand Highlander LE/XLEA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2421/28$1,9505T SSGrand Highlander LimitedA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2421/28$1,9505T SSSequoia 2WDA-S10,3.4L,6cyl2221/24$2,1505T HEV SSSTANDARD SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 4WDACURAMDX AWD Type-SA-S10,3.0L,6cyl1917/21$3,2504P T CD SSASTON MARTINDBX 707A-9,4.0L,8cyl1715/20$3,6003P T CDDBX V8A-9,4.0L,8cyl1614/20$3,8503P T CDAUDIQ4 50 e-tron quattroA-19397/87$80010EVQ4 55 e-tron quattroA-1100107/92$75010EVQ4 Sportback 50 e-tron quattroA-195100/89$80010EVQ4 Sportback 55 e-tron quattroA-1100107/92$75010EVQ7 quattroA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2119/25$2,9004P T SSA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2119/24$2,9004P T MHEV SSQ8 e-tron quattroA-28180/83$95010EVQ8 quattroA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1917/23$3,2504P T MHEV SSQ8 Sportback e-tron quattroA-28784/90$90010EVQ8 Sportback e-tron ultra quattroA-28684/89$90010EVRS Q8A-S8,4.0L,8cyl1513/19$4,1002P T CD MHEV SSSQ7A-S8,4.0L,8cyl1715/21$3,6003P T CD SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesSQ8A-S8,4.0L,8cyl1715/21$3,6003P T CD SSSQ8 e-tron(20 inch wheels)A-27372/75$1,05010EVSQ8 e-tron(21/22 inch wheels)A-26362/63$1,20010EVSQ8 Sportback e-tron(20 inch wheels)A-27372/75$1,05010EVSQ8 Sportback e-tron(21/22 inch wheels)A-26362/63$1,20010EVBENTLEYBentaygaA-S8,4.0L,8cyl1614/21$3,8503P T CD SSBentayga EWBA-S8,4.0L,8cyl1614/21$3,8503P T CD SSBMWAlpina XB7A-S8,4.4L,8cyl1716/20$3,6003P T MHEV SSiX M60(21 inch Wheels)A-18078/82$95010EViX M60(22 inch Wheels)A-18078/82$95010EViX xDrive40(20 inch Wheels)A-18687/85$90010EViX xDrive40(21 inch Wheels)A-18687/85$90010EViX xDrive40(22 inch Wheels)A-18687/85$90010EViX xDrive50(20 inch wheels)A-18383/82$90010EViX xDrive50(21 inch wheels)A-18383/82$90010EViX xDrive50(22 inch wheels)A-18383/82$90010EVX5 M CompetitionA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1513/18$4,1002PR T MHEV SSX5 M60i xDriveA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1917/22$3,2504P T MHEV SSX5 xDrive40iA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2523/27$2,4505P T MHEV SSX6 M CompetitionA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1513/18$4,1002PR T MHEV SSX6 M60i xDriveA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1917/22$3,2504P T MHEV SSX6 xDrive40iA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2423/26$2,5505P T MHEV SSX7 M60i xDriveA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1816/21$3,4004P T MHEV SSX7 xDrive40iA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2221/25$2,8005P T MHEV SS34MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesXMA-S8,4.4L,8cylSee page 38.PR T PHEV SSBUICKEnclave AWDA-9,3.6L,6cyl2017/25$2,3504SSCADILLACEscalade 4WDA-10,3.0L,6cyl2220/26$2,5004D T SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1614/18$3,8503PR CD SSEscalade V AWDA-S10,6.2L,8cyl1311/16$4,7001PR SCHEVROLETSuburban 4WDA-10,3.0L,6cyl2220/26$2,5004D T SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/18$2,9503CD SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1614/18$3,8503PR CD SSTahoe 4WDA-10,3.0L,6cyl2220/26$2,5004D T SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/20$2,8003CD SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1614/18$2,9503CDA-10,6.2L,8cyl1614/18$3,8503PR CD SSTraverse AWDA-8,2.5L,4cyl2119/24$2,2504T SSTraverse Limited AWDA-9,3.6L,6cyl2017/25$2,3504SSDODGEDurango AWDA-8,3.6L,6cyl2118/25$2,2504SSA-8,5.7L,8cyl1714/22$3,3003Mid CDDurango SRT AWDA-8,6.2L,8cyl1312/17$4,7001P SA-8,6.4L,8cyl1513/19$4,1002P CDFERRARIPurosangueAM-8,6.5L,12cyl1211/15$5,1001PR SSFORDBronco Raptor 4WDA-S10,3.0L,6cyl1515/16$3,1502T PT4 SSExpedition 4WDA-S10,3.5L,6cyl1816/22$2,6004T PT4 SSExpedition Timberline AWDA-S10,3.5L,6cyl1716/19$2,8003T PT4 SSExplorer AWDA-10,2.3L,4cyl2320/27$2,0505T PT4 SSA-10,3.0L,6cyl2018/24$2,3504T PT4 SSA-S10,3.0L,6cyl2018/24$2,3504T PT4 SSExplorer FFV AWDA-10,3.3L,6cyl2017/24$2,3504Gas PT41513/18$2,7504E85MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesExplorer Timberline AWDA-S10,2.3L,4cyl2119/22$2,2504T PT4 SSGENESISGV80 AWDA-S8,2.5L,4cyl2220/24$2,8005P T SSA-S8,3.5L,6cyl2018/23$3,0504P T SSGMCAcadia AWDA-8,2.5L,4cyl2119/24$2,2504T SSHummer EV SUVA-15359/48$1,45010EVHummer EV SUV 2M20A-15156/46$1,50010EVHummer EV SUV MT TiresA-15055/45$1,40010EVHummer EV SUV MT Tires 2M20A-14751/43$1,60010EVYukon 4WDA-10,3.0L,6cyl2220/26$2,5004D T SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1715/20$2,8003CD SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1614/18$3,8503PR CD SSYukon XL 4WDA-10,3.0L,6cyl2220/26$2,5004D T SSA-10,5.3L,8cyl1615/18$2,9503CD SSA-10,6.2L,8cyl1614/18$3,8503PR CD SSHONDAPilot AWDA-S10,3.5L,6cyl2119/25$2,2504CD SSPilot AWD Touring/Elite/BlackA-S10,3.5L,6cyl2119/25$2,2504CD SSPilot AWD TrailSportA-S10,3.5L,6cyl2018/23$2,3504CD SSPrologue AWD EliteA-19299/84$85010EVPrologue AWD TouringA-195101/88$80010EVINEOS AUTOMOTIVEGrenadierA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1515/15$4,1002P T SSGrenadier Trialmaster EditionA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1414/14$4,4002P T SSINFINITIQX60 AWDA-S9,3.5L,6cyl2220/25$2,8005P SSQX80 4WDA-S7,5.6L,8cyl1513/19$4,1002PJEEPGrand Cherokee 4WDA-8,3.6L,6cyl2219/26$2,1505SSFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202435MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesGrand Cherokee 4xeA-8,2.0L,4cylSee page 38.T PHEV SSGrand Cherokee L 4WDA-8,3.6L,6cyl2118/25$2,2504SSA-8,5.7L,8cyl1714/22$3,3003Mid CDGrand Wagoneer 4WDA-8,3.0L,6cyl1714/20$3,6003P T SSA-8,6.4L,8cyl1513/18$4,1002P CDGrand Wagoneer L 4WDA-8,3.0L,6cyl1714/20$3,6003P T SSWagoneer 4WDA-8,3.0L,6cyl1916/23$2,5004T SSWagoneer L 4WDA-8,3.0L,6cyl1916/23$2,5004T SSWagoneer S AWD(Falken tire)A-197104/90$80010EVWagoneer S AWD(Pirelli tire)A-18793/81$90010EVKIAEV9 Long Range AWDA-18391/75$90010EVEV9 Long Range AWD GT-LineA-18088/72$95010EVLAMBORGHINIUrus SA-S8,4.0L,8cyl1614/19$3,8503P T CD SSLAND ROVERDefender 110A-S8,2.0L,4cyl1918/20$3,2504P T SSA-S8,5.0L,8cyl1614/19$3,8503P S SSDefender 110 MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1817/20$3,4004P T S MHEV SSDefender 130 OutboundA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1716/18$3,6003PR T S MHEV SSDefender 130 P300 MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1817/20$3,4004P T S MHEV SSDefender 130 P400 MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1817/20$3,4004P T S MHEV SSDefender 90A-S8,2.0L,4cyl1918/21$3,2504P T SSA-S8,5.0L,8cyl1615/19$3,8503P S SSDefender 90 MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/22$3,0504P T S MHEV SSDiscoveryA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2119/24$2,9004P T SSDiscovery MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1917/23$3,2504P T S MHEV SSRange Rover LWB MHEVA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1816/22$3,4004P T MHEV SSRange Rover MHEVA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1916/23$3,2504P T MHEV SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesRange Rover P360 LWB MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2017/24$3,0504P T S MHEV SSRange Rover P360 MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2017/24$3,0504P T S MHEV SSRange Rover P400 LWB MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/24$3,0504P T S MHEV SSRange Rover P400 MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2018/24$3,0504P T S MHEV SSRange Rover Sport MHEVA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1916/23$3,2504P T MHEV SSRange Rover Sport P360 MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2118/24$2,9004P T S MHEV SSRange Rover Sport P400 MHEVA-S8,3.0L,6cyl2119/25$2,9004P T S MHEV SSRange Rover Sport SVR MHEVA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1816/22$3,4004P T MHEV SSRange Rover SV LWB MHEVA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1816/22$3,4004P T MHEV SSRange Rover SV MHEVA-S8,4.4L,8cyl1816/22$3,4004P T MHEV SSLEXUSGX 550A-S10,3.4L,6cyl1715/21$3,6003PR TLX 600A-S10,3.4L,6cyl1917/22$3,2504PR T SSTX 350 AWDA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2320/26$2,6505PR T SSTX 500h AWDA-S6,2.4L,4cyl2727/28$2,2505PR T HEV SSLINCOLNAviator AWDA-S10,3.0L,6cyl2017/24$2,3504T PT4 SSNavigator 4WDA-S10,3.5L,6cyl1816/22$2,6004T PT4 SSMASERATILevante GTA-8,3.0L,6cyl1816/22$3,4004PR T SSLevante ModenaA-8,3.0L,6cyl1816/22$3,4004PR T SSLevante Modena V8A-8,3.8L,8cyl1613/20$3,8503PR T SSLevante TrofeoA-8,3.8L,8cyl1613/20$3,8503PR T SSMAZDACX-90 4WDA-S8,3.3L,6cyl2524/28$1,9005T MHEVA-S8,3.3L,6cyl2523/28$2,4505P T MHEV36MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesMERCEDES-BENZAMG EQE 4matic Plus(SUV)A-17477/71$1,05010EV SSAMG G63A-9,4.0L,8cyl1413/16$4,4002PR T CD SSAMG G63 4x4 SquaredA-9,4.0L,8cyl1110/12$5,6001PR TAMG GLE53 4matic PlusA-9,3.0L,6cyl2018/23$3,0504PR T S MHEV SSAMG GLE53 4matic Plus CoupeA-9,3.0L,6cyl2018/22$3,0504PR T S MHEV SSAMG GLE63 S 4matic PlusA-9,4.0L,8cyl1615/19$3,8503PR T CD MHEV SSAMG GLE63 S 4matic Plus CoupeA-9,4.0L,8cyl1615/19$3,8503PR T CD MHEV SSAMG GLS63 4matic PlusA-9,4.0L,8cyl1614/18$3,8503PR T CD MHEV SSEQE 350 4matic(SUV)A-18588/82$90010EV SSEQE 500 4matic(SUV)A-18688/83$85010EV SSEQS 450 4matic(SUV)A-18384/82$90010EV SSEQS 580 4matic(SUV)A-18385/81$90010EV SSEQS 680 4matic Maybach(SUV)A-18181/81$95010EV SSA-17675/77$1,00010EV SSG550A-9,4.0L,8cyl1413/16$4,4002PR T CD SSGLE450 4maticA-9,3.0L,6cyl2219/26$2,8005PR T MHEV SSGLE580 4maticA-9,4.0L,8cyl1715/20$3,6003PR T CD MHEV SSGLS450 4maticA-9,3.0L,6cyl2119/24$2,9004PR T MHEV SSGLS580 4maticA-9,4.0L,8cyl1614/20$3,8503PR T CD MHEV SSGLS600 4matic MaybachA-9,4.0L,8cyl1614/19$3,8503PR T CD MHEV SSMITSUBISHIOutlander PHEVA-1,2.4L,4cylSee page 38.PHEV SSNISSANArmada 4WDA-S7,5.6L,8cyl1513/18$4,1002PPathnder 4WD PlatinumA-S9,3.5L,6cyl2220/25$2,1505SSMPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesPORSCHECayenneA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1917/23$3,2504PR T SSCayenne CoupeA-S8,3.0L,6cyl1917/23$3,2504PR T SSCayenne SA-S8,4.0L,8cyl1715/21$3,6003PR T CD SSCayenne S CoupeA-S8,4.0L,8cyl1715/21$3,6003PR T CD SSRIVIANR1S All-Terrain Dual Large(20in)A-16872/64$1,10010PT4 EVR1S All-Terrain Dual Max(20in)A-17378/67$1,05010PT4 EVR1S All-Terrain Dual Standard Plus(20in)A-16568/62$1,15010PT4 EVR1S All-Terrain Performance Dual Large(20in)A-16872/64$1,10010PT4 EVR1S All-Terrain Performance Dual Max(20in)A-17378/67$1,05010PT4 EVR1S All-Terrain Quad Large(20 inch)A-16365/60$1,20010EVR1S AT Performance Dual Standard Plus(20in)A-16568/62$1,15010PT4 EVR1S Dual Large(21in)A-17882/74$95010PT4 EVR1S Dual Large(22in)A-17580/71$1,00010PT4 EVR1S Dual Max(21in)A-18289/76$90010PT4 EVR1S Dual Max(22in)A-17884/72$95010PT4 EVR1S Dual Standard(21in)A-17578/71$1,00010PT4 EVR1S Dual Standard(22in)A-17074/66$1,10010PT4 EVR1S Dual Standard Plus(21in)A-17780/74$1,00010PT4 EVR1S Dual Standard Plus(22in)A-17276/68$1,05010PT4 EVR1S Performance Dual Large(21in)A-17882/74$95010PT4 EVR1S Performance Dual Large(22in)A-17580/71$1,00010PT4 EVR1S Performance Dual Max(21in)A-18289/76$90010PT4 EVR1S Performance Dual Max(22in)A-17884/72$95010PT4 EVR1S Performance Dual Standard(22in)A-17276/68$1,05010PT4 EVFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202437MPGManufacturerModelConguration(trans,eng size,cyl)Comb City/HwyAnnualFuelCostGHGRatingNotesR1S Performance Dual Standard Plus(21in)A-17780/74$1,00010PT4 EVR1S Quad Large(20in)A-16469/60$1,20010EVR1S Quad Large(21in)A-17175/66$1,05010EVR1S Quad Large(22in)A-16873/63$1,10010EVSUBARUAscentAV-S8,2.4L,4cyl2220/26$2,1505TAscent Limited/Touring/Onyx AWDAV-S8,2.4L,4cyl2119/25$2,2504TTESLAModel XA-1100104/96$75010EVModel X Plaid(20in wheels)A-198102/92$80010EVModel X Plaid(22in wheels)A-19094/86$85010EVTOYOTA4Runner 4WDA-S5,4.0L,6cyl1716/19$2,8003PT4A-S5,4.0L,6cyl1716/19$2,8003Grand Highlander AWD LE/XLEA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2321/27$2,0505T SSGrand Highlander AWD Limited/PlatinumA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2220/26$2,1505T SSGrand Highlander Hybrid AWDA-S6,2.4L,4cyl2726/27$1,7505T HEV SSAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3436/32$1,4007HEV SSHighlander Hybrid AWDAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3535/35$1,3507HEV SSHighlander Hybrid AWD LTD/PLATAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl3535/34$1,3507HEV SSLand CruiserA-S8,2.4L,4cyl2322/25$2,6505PR T HEV SSSequoia 4WDA-S10,3.4L,6cyl2019/22$2,3504T PT4 HEV SSVOLVOXC90 B5 AWDA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2422/27$2,5505PR T MHEV SSXC90 B6 AWDA-S8,2.0L,4cyl2320/26$2,6505PR T S MHEV SSXC90 T8 AWD RechargeA-S8,2.0L,4cylSee page 38.PR T PHEV SSPLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES38Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs)are hybrids that can becharged by plugging them into an electrical outlet or chargingstation.Plug-in hybrids can store enough electricity from the powergrid to signicantly reduce their gasoline consumption under typicaldriving conditions.There are two basic plug-in hybrid congurations:Series PHEVs,also called Extended Range Electric Vehicles(EREVs).The electric motor on these vehicles is the only powersource that turns the wheels;the gasoline engine only generateselectricity.Series PHEVs can run solely on electricity until thebattery needs to be recharged.The gasoline engine will thengenerate the electricity needed to power the electric motor.Forshort trips,these vehicles may not use any gasoline.Parallel or Blended PHEVs.Both the engine and electric motorare mechanically connected to the wheels,and both may propelthe vehicle.The vehicle may operate using both electricity andgasoline at the same time,using electricity only,or using gasolineonly.Plug-in hybrids also have different battery capacities,allowing someto travel farther on electricity than others.PHEV fuel economy,likethat of EVs and regular hybrids,can be sensitive to driving style,driving conditions,and accessory use.When operating in pureelectric mode,PHEVs emit no tailpipe pollutants,although the powerplant producing the electricity may emit pollution.Charging a PHEVs battery typically takes several hours.They can becharged at home or at an increasing number of workplaces or publiclocations.However,PHEVs dont have to be plugged in to be driven.They can be fueled solely with gasoline,like a conventional hybrid,but they will not achieve maximum range or fuel economy withoutcharging.Plug-in hybrids use less gasoline and cost less to fuel thanconventional hybrids,but they are more expensive to purchase.A federal income tax credit of up to$7,500 is currently available toconsumers purchasing a qualifying plug-in hybrid.State and/or localincentives may also apply.For additional information on PHEVs,including tax incentives,visit fueleconomy.gov.FUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202439Fuel EconomyCombined MPGeManufacturer,Model,Trans,Eng Size,Cyl,Electric MotorFuelComb/City/Hwy MPGRange(miles)TotalRange*(miles)ChargeTime(hrs 240 V)AnnualFuelCostGHGRatingTWO-SEATER CARSFERRARISF90 SpiderAM-8,3.9L,8cyl,99,99 and 150 kW PMSMElectricity Gasoline44 MPGe(77kWh 0 gal/100 mi)83302.5$3,1505Premium Gasoline17/16/19320SF90 StradaleAM-8,3.9L,8cyl,99,99 and 150 kW PMSMElectricity Gasoline51 MPGe(66kWh 0 gal/100 mi)93402.5$3,0005Premium Gasoline18/16/20330COMPACT CARSBMW330e SedanA-S8,2.0L,4cyl,80 kW PMSMElectricity Gasoline73 MPGe(48kWh 0 gal/100 mi)223103$1,7008Premium Gasoline27/24/32291330e xDrive SedanA-S8,2.0L,4cyl,80 kW PMSMElectricity Gasoline68 MPGe(45kWh 0 gal/100 mi)203003$1,7508Premium Gasoline26/22/32281VOLVOS60 T8 AWD RechargeA-S8,2.0L,4cyl,34 kW 3-phase Sync.Electricity Gasoline74 MPGe(44kWh 0.1 gal/100 mi)405305$1,30010Premium Gasoline31/30/33492MIDSIZE CARSBENTLEYFlying Spur HybridAM-S8,2.9L,6cyl,103 kW AC InductionElectricity Gasoline46 MPGe(74kWh 0 gal/100 mi)214303$2,5007Premium Gasoline19/17/22406TOYOTAPrius PrimeAV,2.0L,4cyl,120 kW AC InductionElectricity Gasoline114 MPGe(29kWh 0 gal/100 mi)405504$75010Gasoline48/50/47513Prius Prime SEAV,2.0L,4cyl,120 kW AC InductionElectricity Gasoline127 MPGe(26kWh 0 gal/100 mi)456004$70010Gasoline52/53/51553MINIVANS 2WDCHRYSLERPacica HybridAV,3.6L,6cyl,89 kW AC InductionElectricity Gasoline82 MPGe(41kWh 0 gal/100 mi)325202$1,2009Gasoline30/29/30487SMALL SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 4WDALFA ROMEOTonale eAWDA-6,1.3L,4cyl,89 kW AC InductionElectricity Gasoline77 MPGe(44kWh 0 gal/100 mi)333604$1,2509Gasoline29/29/29323DODGEHornet PHEV AWDA-6,1.3L,4cyl,89 kW AC InductionElectricity Gasoline77 MPGe(44kWh 0 gal/100 mi)333604$1,2509Gasoline29/29/2932340Fuel EconomyCombined MPGeManufacturer,Model,Trans,Eng Size,Cyl,Electric MotorFuelComb/City/Hwy MPGRange(miles)TotalRange*(miles)ChargeTime(hrs 240 V)AnnualFuelCostGHGRatingHYUNDAITucson Plug-in HybridAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl,67 kW PMSMElectricity Gasoline80 MPGe(42kWh 0 gal/100 mi)334201.7$1,1009Gasoline35/35/35389JEEPWrangler 4dr 4xeA-8,2.0L,4cyl,100 kW AC InductionElectricity Gasoline49 MPGe(68kWh 0 gal/100 mi)223702.4$1,9507Gasoline20/20/20346KIASorento Plug-in HybridAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl,67 kW PMSMElectricity Gasoline79 MPGe(43kWh 0 gal/100 mi)324603.4$1,1009Gasoline34/35/33423Sportage Plug-in HybridAM-S6,1.6L,4cyl,67 kW IPMSMElectricity Gasoline84 MPGe(40kWh 0 gal/100 mi)344302$1,05010Gasoline35/36/35393LEXUSNX 450h Plus AWDAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl,40 and 134 kW AC InductionElectricity Gasoline84 MPGe(40kWh 0 gal/100 mi)375504.5$1,20010Premium Gasoline36/38/33517TOYOTARAV4 Prime 4WDAV-S6,2.5L,4cyl,40 and 134 kW AC InductionElectricity Gasoline94 MPGe(36kWh 0 gal/100 mi)426004.5$95010Gasoline38/40/36555VOLVOXC60 T8 AWD RechargeA-S8,2.0L,4cyl,34 kW 3-phase Sync.Electricity Gasoline63 MPGe(50kWh 0.1 gal/100 mi)365605$1,5509Premium Gasoline28/28/28521STANDARD SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 4WDBMWXMA-S8,4.4L,8cyl,145 kW PMSMElectricity Gasoline46 MPGe(73kWh 0 gal/100 mi)313007$2,7507Premium Gasoline14/12/17268JEEPGrand Cherokee 4xeA-8,2.0L,4cyl,100 kW AC InductionElectricity Gasoline56 MPGe(58kWh 0 gal/100 mi)264703.4$1,6508Gasoline23/23/24447MITSUBISHIOutlander PHEVA-1,2.4L,4cyl,85 and 100 kW DCPMElectricity Gasoline64 MPGe(52kWh 0 gal/100 mi)384206.5$1,4009Gasoline26/25/27386VOLVOXC90 T8 AWD RechargeA-S8,2.0L,4cyl,34 and 107 kW 3-phase Sync.Electricity Gasoline58 MPGe(55kWh 0.1 gal/100 mi)335305$1,7009Premium Gasoline27/26/27499NOTES AND ABBREVIATIONS:*.Total range includes operation on both electricity and gasoline and isrounded to the nearest 10 miles.This vehicle did not use any gasoline during charge-depleting(electric)operation during EPA city and highway tests;however,you may use both gasoline and electricity during charge-depleting operation following a full charge.3-phase Sync.3-phase synchronous motorAC.Alternating current induction motorDCPM.Direct current permanent magnet motorIPMSM.Interior permanent magnet synchonous motorMPGe.Miles per gallon gasoline equivalentMPK.Miles per kilogramPMSM.Permanent magnet synchronous motorALL-ELECTRIC VEHICLESFUEL ECONOMY GUIDE 202441All-electric vehicles(EVs)are propelled by one or more electricmotors powered by a rechargeable battery.EVs are energy efficientand emit no tailpipe pollutants,although the power plant producingthe electricity may emit pollution.Electric motors have several performance benets.They are quiet,have instant torque for quick acce
2024-12-29
63页
5星级
Compact Cities Electrified:United StatesBRIEF FOR POLICYMAKERS2ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSLEAD AUTHORS:Lewis Fulton University of California,Davis Director,Sustainable Transportation Energy PathwaysD.Taylor Reich Institute for Transportation and Development Policy(Global)Data Science ManagerSUPPORTING AUTHORS:Lindsay A.Dellechaie Institute for Transportation and Development Policy Special Assistant to the CEO Farhana Sharmin University of California,Davis Graduate Student ResearcherREVIEWERS:James Bradbury Georgetown Climate Center Mitigation Program DirectorAaron Isenstadt International Council on Clean Transportation Senior Researcher Benjamin de la Pea Shared-Use Mobility Center CEOBenito O.Prez Transportation For America Policy Director Michael Replogle Institute for Transportation and Development Policy(US)US AdviserPUBLISHED JANUARY 2024COVER PHOTO:Columbia Pike Transit Station in Arlington,Virginia.SOURCE:BeyondDC via Flickr3CONTENTSCOMPACT CITIES ELECTRIFIED:UNITED STATES 1.BACKGROUND 4 2.FOUR SCENARIOS 5 3.METHODOLOGY 11 3.1.STRUCTURING THE MODEL 3.2.DEFINING SCENARIOS 3.2.1.SCENARIOS FOR ELECTRIFICATION RATES 3.2.2.SCENARIOS FOR MODE SHIFT RATES 4.SCENARIO COMPATIBILITY WITH US CLIMATE COMMITMENTS 16 4.1.US CLIMATE TARGETS 4.2.SCENARIO IMPACTS ON TRANSPORT EMISSIONS 4.3.MODE SHIFT REDUCES DEPENDENCE ON GRID DECARBONIZATION 5.SCENARIO IMPACTS ON ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION 20 6.DIRECT PUBLIC AND PRIVATE EXPENSES IN EACH SCENARIO 21 7.MEASURABLE GOALS FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION 22 7.1.GOALS FOR ELECTRIFICATION 7.2.GOALS FOR LAND USE 7.3.GOALS FOR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE APPENDIX A:SKETCH POLICY AGENDA 24 I.ELECTRIFY TRANSPORTATION WITH POLICY,INCENTIVES,AND INFRASTRUCTURE II.REFORM LAND USE POLICY,UPDATE ZONING LAWS,INCENTIVIZE SUSTAINABLE,MIXED-USE,TRANSPORT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT III.SUPPORT MODE SHIFT BY OPTIMIZING THE USE OF ROAD SPACE WITH WALKING,CYCLING,AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT APPENDIX B:IMAGINING COMPACT CITIES ELECTRIFIED IN THE US 27 APPENDIX C:METHODOLOGICAL DOCUMENTATION 2841.BACKGROUNDThis study is the culmination of a decade of collaboration in transport modeling between ITDP and the University of California Davis.2 Ten years of effort have produced a detailed method for high-level modeling of urban and suburban passenger transportation,but this study of the US,along with parallel studies of other countries,are the first time the model has been used to publish analytical results for a single country.Like its predecessor,The Compact City ScenarioElectrified,the current publication compares the economic and environmental implications of four scenarios for the future of urban passenger transportation:1)the current trajectory;2)intensive electrification;3)intensive mode shift;and 4)the combination of the latter two.But while the previous report focused on the global need to pursue these strategies,this study describes the specifics of the United States.In addition to quantifying the emissions that each scenario would entail,we have also estimated the quantities and costsor savingsof infrastructure that would result from different scenarios for the future of the US.These results provide a“road map”for how those scenarios might be realized.Although this is the first application of the UC Davis model in particular to the US,it is not the first time that transportation modeling has indicated the countrys need for both electrification and reduced driving to achieve decarbonization goals.The Georgetown Climate Center,for example,has also shown that“if a substantial portion of Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act funding is directed toward highway expansion,emissions increases from induced demand associated with highway expansion have the potential to reverse the benefits of the low-carbon transportation investments.”3 2 ITDP&UC Davis(2021),The Compact City ScenarioElectrified;ITDP&UC Davis(2017),Three Revolutions in Urban Transportation;ITDP&UC Davis(2015),A Global High Shift Cycling Scenario;ITDP&UC Davis(2014),A Global High Shift Scenario:Impacts and Potential for More Public Transport,Walking and Cycling with Lower Car Use.3 Georgetown Climate Center(2021),Issue Brief:Estimating the Greenhouse Gas Impact of Federal Infrastructure Investments in the IIJA.52.FOUR SCENARIOSLike the global study and parallel reports for other countries,this research investigates four scenarios for urban passenger transport in the US through 2050.These scenarios are diagrammed in Figure A.We start by understanding these scenarios qualitatively,including a summary of the impacts that they might have outside the scope of our modeling analysisfactors such as public health and economic inclusion.In Section 3(page 11),we define these scenarios quantitatively for modeling.FIGURE ARATE OF ELECTRIFICATIONRATE OF MODE SHIFTELECTRIFICATIONONLYBUSINESSAS USUALSLOWS L O WF A S TFA STMODE SHIFTONLYMODE SHIFTANDELECTRIFICATION6BUSINESS AS USUAL(“BAU”)Assumptions:Qualitative impacts:The US continues its current trajectory.Private motorized travel increases slightly,remaining responsible for nearly 90%of urban passenger travel.Electrification is fairly rapid,per the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.Increase in traffic fatalities4High direct public and private costs5Reduced access to opportunities for low-income or historically marginalized people without cars,leading to increased wealth inequality6Increase in local air pollution,causing many premature deaths and increased healthcare costs7Increase in urban highways,dividing neighborhoods and subsidizing environmentally unfriendly sprawl8Increase in carbon emissions,leading to climate catastrophe94 Unsurprisingly,steady population growth has historically translated to a corresponding increase in road fatalities,particularly among pedestrians.See:National Safety Council(2021),Car Crash Deaths and Rates;Governors Highway Safety Association(2022),Pedestrian Traffic Fatalities by State:2022 Preliminary Data.5 For example,highway infrastructure spending per mile has risen dramatically:Accounting for inflation,$8 million in the 1960s per mile became$30 million per mile by the 1990s.See:American Economic Association(2023),Infrastructure Costs.6 National Equity Atlas,Indicator:Car Access.7 Despite great gains in air quality in the US,as of 2022,approximately 85 million people nationwide lived in counties with pollution levels above National Ambient Air Quality Standards.Increased natural events such as wildfires partially due to climate change will further erode air quality.See Union of Concerned Scientists(2014),Vehicles,Air Pollution,and Human Health;United States Environmental Protection Agency(2023),Air Quality National Summary,19802022.8 Greg LeRoy,JSTOR(2004),Subsidizing sprawl:Economic development policies that deprive the poor of transit,jobs.9 Andrew Moseman,MIT Climate Portal(2022),Are electric vehicles definitely better for the climate than gas-powered cars?The answer is yes,though the extent to which improvement is meaningful is based on electricity source and manufacturing emissions.The BAU scenario will encourage car-oriented development with a limited increase of clean energy.Traffic jams on the 101 freeway in Los Angeles typify the Business as Usual future.SOURCE:CALmatters.org7ELECTRIFICATION(ONLY)Assumptions:Qualitative impacts:Key policies:Electrification proceeds much more rapidly than is currently planned,following proposed EPA standards and other strong electrification policies,with 60%of new light-duty vehicles electric by 2030 and 100%shortly thereafter.Sharp reduction in carbon emissions10Sharp reduction in local air and noise pollution11Increase in traffic fatalitiesHigh direct public and private costsReduced access to opportunities for low-income people without carsIncrease in urban highways,dividing neighborhoods and subsidizing environmentally unfriendly sprawlConsumption of limited supply of critical minerals,raising concerns related to extractive industries,conservation,national security,and supply chain10 With high electrification,the emissions from transport will be reduced sharply.See:Andrew Mosemen,MIT Climate Portal(2022).Are electric vehicles definitely better for the climate than gas-powered cars?11 Tsoi et al.,(2023),The co-benefits of electric mobility in reducing traffic noise and chemical air pollution:Insights from a transit-oriented city.Supply-and demand-side EV incentivesAmbitious fuel economy and tailpipe GHG emission standardsBattery reuse and recyclingEquitable placement of standardized public charging points for EVs(including two-wheelers)Electric grid expansion and decarbonizationAn EVgo charging station in a parking lot in Fremont,California.SOURCE:Tada Images via ShutterstockMODE SHIFT(ONLY)Assumptions:Key policies:Qualitative impacts:Compact city planning is combined with reallocation of both funding and street space to walking,bicycling,and public transport.In this case,the US stops building new urban roadways,focusing instead on providing denser housing,mixed land use,and better bus/bicycle infrastructure on existing roadways.Car travel falls to three quarters of Business as Usual levels by 2050.Reallocation of transport budgets to walking,cycling,and public transport,especially BRTStreet redesigns that shift space from travel lanes and parking to BRT lanes,physically protected bicycle lanes,and footpathsPromotion of bicycles,especially shared electric bicyclesReduction in traffic fatalities12Increased access to opportunities,especially for low-income people,people of color,and other groups suffering from spatial segregation,people with disabilities and the elderly or young13Increase in walking and cycling,which improves physical and mental health,reducing healthcare costs14High local air and noise pollution from internal-combustion(ICE)vehicles relative to Electrification(Only)12 Dangerous by Design(2022).13 See:National Library of Medicine(2023),Does the compact city paradigm help reduce poverty?Note,this is most effective in mitigating poverty in combination with housing affordability measures;also see Urban Institute(not dated),Causes and consequences:Separate and unequal neighborhoods.14 Matthew Raifman et al.(2021),Mortality implications of increased active mobility for a proposed regional transportation emission cap-and-invest program.In the Mode Shift(Only)future,most urban Americans will live near safe infrastructure for walking and cycling,like Atlantas Beltline.SOURCE:Christopher V Jones/Atlanta BeltLine89ELECTRIFICATION SHIFTAssumptions:Qualitative impacts:Key policies:Compact cities and mode shift,combined with rapid electrification:Electrification and Mode Shift together.Reduction in traffic fatalities15Increased access to opportunities for allIncrease in walking and cycling,which improve physical and mental health,reducing healthcare costExtensive reduction in local air and noise pollutionMassive reduction in carbon emissions consistent with the terms of the Paris Agreement All policies listed for Electrification(Only)and for Mode Shift(Only),except for growth in urban highwaysCreation of low-emission areas to incentivize both mode shift and vehicle electrification 15 Dangerous by Design(2022).In the Electrification Shift future,most Americans will travel by walking,bicycling,or electric vehicle,illustrated by this shared street in San Francisco.SOURCE:KURLIN_CAfE via Shutterstock10 Achieving the Electrification or Mode Shift scenarios would require profound but feasible changes in American policychanges that are possible under the USs current political and economic structure.They would involve restructuring how transportation budgets are allocat-ed,how street space is used,and how taxes and subsidies are applied to vehicles and fuelbut they are incremental changes that can be reached in the current system and would not require a“revolution”in any economic,social,or political sense.In Appendix B,we envision a narrative for the Electrification Shift scenario,using the urban area of DallasFort Worth as an example.113.METHODOLOGYThis study uses the same methods as the 2021 Compact City ScenarioElectrified and the other 2023/2024 country-level studies published by ITDP and UC Davis.In each of these studies,we define four scenarios and estimate their impacts using the same modeling methods.This sec-tion will first describe the structure of these modeling methods and then outline our process for defining the scenarios that are taken as modeling input.Our application of this model to the US has been reviewed by experts representing a range of national specialist institutions to help ensure accuracy.These experts names and affiliations are listed on this briefs title page.For a more detailed description of the methodology,in-cluding a complete set of data,please review the accompanying methodological appendix.3.1.Structuring the ModelOur study is limited to urban passenger transportation and does not include intercity travel,rural travel,or freight carriage of any kind.We define“urban”based on United Nations data,including all urban or suburban areas of 300,000 people or more.16 This definition encompass-es about 80%of the US population.Other research shows that both electrification and mode shift will be necessary to decarbonize rural/intercity17 and freight18 transport,and this focus in our scope allows us to model urban and suburban travel with more precision.The model is calibrated to industry-standard data from the International Energy Agencys Mobility Model19 except where more detailed US-specific data is available.This calibration de-termines the estimation of conditions in the base year,the projection of the Business as Usual scenario,and factors such as emissions factors,fuel emission intensities,and costs.This general modeling approach was reviewed as part of the 2021 publication,and a list of reviewers can be found there.20 Our method provides a high-level comparison of different sce-narios rather than a detailed bottom-up analysis.This results in a perspective thats relevant to the urban passenger transport sector broadly rather than focusing exclusively on a handful of particular policies.3.2.Defining ScenariosAfter setting the scope and calibrating the model,the next step is to quantitatively define the four scenarios for urban passenger transportation in the US that were described on page 5 above.Beginning from a base year of 201521 and looking to future timepoints in 2030 and 2050,we describe possible futures.These scenarios are not intended to precisely define the only options for the future of the sector;rather,they are meant to give an idea of general trajecto-ries that are possible for urban passenger transport.For electrification,our forecasting is expressed in terms of the percentage of new vehicles that are electric.The Business as Usual and Mode Shift scenarios share the same lower elec-trification rates;the Electrification and Electrification Shift scenarios share the same higher electrification rates.There may be fewer new cars sold per year in the Mode Shift scenario,but the same percentage of those cars are electric.Similarly,modal splits and travel activities(defined in terms of person-miles traveled by different modes)are identical in the Business as Usual and Electrification scenarios,with higher levels of car use;these are also identical in the Mode Shift and Electrification Shift scenarios,with lower levels of car use.After defining these scenarios,we will estimate their implications.For each scenario,based on the size of vehicle fleets and the amount of activity per vehicle,we estimate life cycle22 green-house gas emissions(Section 4),energy consumption(Section 5),and total quantities and costs of infrastructure,vehicles,fuel,and operation(Section 6).3.2.1.Scenarios for Electrification RatesThe Business as Usual and Mode Shift scenarios follow the same projections for the percentage of new vehicles that are electric,broken down by year and vehicle typethe sales shares of vehicles.In these scenarios,our projections are meant to align with the countrys current tra-jectory.This projection includes the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)but not of any proposed policies that were not law as of October 2023,such as Advanced Clean Cars II or pro-posed EPA standards.These projections,shown in Figure B,are taken from the International Council on Clean Transportations(ICCT)projections for the United States23 and are compatible with analysis by the Rhodium Group.2416 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs(2018),World Urbanization Prospects.17 International Transport Forum:OECD(2023),ITF Transport Outlook 2023.18 Lynn H Kaack,Environmental Research Letters(2018),Decarbonizing intraregional freight systems with a focus on modal shift.19 The Mobility Model is only available under a closed license,and the full dataset cannot be shared.However,all relevant variables for the US are included in the methodological appendix and may be reviewed there.20 ITDP&UC Davis(2021),The Compact City ScenarioElectrified.21 Selected for data availability and compatibility between sibling studies,and to avoid distortions due to COVID-19.22 Including emissions not only from the production and consumption of fuel or electricity but also from the manufacture and disposal of vehicles and the construction and maintenance of infrastructure.23 Sen and Miller,ICCT(2023),Vision 2050:Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2023,Tables A4 and A5.24 Larsen et al.,Rhodium Group(2022),A turning point for us climate progress:assessing the climate and clean energy provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act,Figure 10,“IRA(Central).”12The Electrification and Electrification Shift scenarios follow sales share projections that reflect not only the IRA but also the potential impacts of proposed EPA standards for model years 20272032 and continued improvement in the EPA standard-setting progress after that period.These projections,shown in Figure B,are also taken from the ICCT25 and are compatible with the EPAs own analysis.26Percentages of New Vehicles that Are Electric(Rather than Internal-Combustion)Business as Usual and Mode Shift(Only)Electrification(Only)and Electrification Shift201520302050201520302050LDVs(cars and light trucks)20P%20%2-wheelers/motorcycles(not including e-bikes)2%5%20%Buses2E%2p0%3.2.2.Scenarios for Mode Shift RatesThe Business as Usual and Electrification scenarios include modal splits and travel activity projections based on the industry-standard International Energy Agencys(IEA)Mobility Mod-el,which includes base-year estimates and future projections of travel breakdowns by mode.They can be seen in Figure E and Figure F.The Mode Shift and Electrification Shift scenarios follow our own calculations,in two steps.First,we project possible future urban densities in the US under a maximum-feasible policy to promote compact,mixed-use cities.Second,we identify the maximum feasible replacement of car and mo-torcycle travel and substitution with walking,bicycling,public transportation,telecommuting,or shorter trips,including a factor to show how mode shift can be more easily achieved in compact communities.For more detail on this modeling process,see the methodological appendix.The first step of the calculation draws on data from the European Commissions Global Human Set-tlement Layer,27 identifying the current trends in urban density and then also projecting a compact cities scenario in which various policies come together to achieve the following effect:Cities in the United States immediately stop sprawling,consuming no new undeveloped urban land.Rather,population growth is concentrated in areas that currently have less than 4,000 peo-ple per km2(about 10,000 people per square mile)to bring them to a population above that level.This threshold is arbitrary,but it reflects a general point at which it becomes feasible to serve urban areas with public transportation.The modeling approach is meant to generally represent a densification that could be achieved through“missing middle”housing28 and zoning reform to per-mit by-right multifamily construction(without parking minimums)on all urban land.This densification is meant to represent the maximum land use reform that can be achieved without anyone having to leave or redevelop their current home.It will only provide new op-tions:If Americans wish to continue living in low-density suburbs,this degree of densification would not prevent them from doing soand even in 2050 in the Mode Shift scenarios,17 per-cent of urban residents will live at very low densities,below about 3,400 people per square mile(5 people per acre,or 500 people per km2).In the Business as Usual projections,almost all population growth results in the expansion of ar-eas where people live at a density between about 5,000 and 10,000 people per square mile(2,0004,000 ppl/km2).In the Mode Shift scenarios,including the densification effects described above,we project that it would be possible to redirect that growth to the expansion of areas where peo-ple live at a density between 10,000 and 20,000 people per square mile(4,0008,000 ppl/km2),as shown in Figure C.This results in the average weighted urban densities29 shown in Figure D.25 Sen and Miller,Vision 205026 US EPA(2023),Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis,Tables 1373.27 ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/28 Missing Middle Housing is“a range of house-scale buildings with multiple unitscompatible in scale and form with detached single-family homeslocated in a walkable neighborhood.”29 Weighted population density is the average of the densities of subareas of the city weighted by the populations of those subareas.Our analysis uses subareas of 1km2.It is a more meaningful indicator than simple population density,which is the total population of a city divided by the total area.See:Garrett Dash Nelson,Bloomberg CityLab(2016),The deception of density.FIGURE B.Electrification rates by vehicle type,year,and scenario13FIGURE C.Urban density groupings80,00060,00040,00020,0000200020152030 HighShift2050 HighShift2030 BAU/High EV2050 BAU/High EV1,250-2,500 ppl/mi210,000-20,000 ppl/mi22,500-5,000 ppl/mi220,000-40,000 ppl/mi25,000-10,000 ppl/mi240,000 ppl/mi2URBAN POPULATION DENSITY GROUPINGS BY YEAR AND SCENARIO14In the second step,after estimating future densities,we used the projected potential urban densities to identify the maximum feasible reductions in car and motorcycle travel as a func-tion of those densities.In more compact communities,it will be easier to replace car travel with travel by other modes.We estimate that a 13 percent reduction in car/motorcycle travel relative to 2030 BAU and a 37 percent reduction relative to 2050 BAU are achievable.The spe-cific redistribution of this travel to other modes was based on expert judgment,approved by the US-specialist reviewers listed on page 2;more detail can be found in the methodological appendix.The results of this calculation are a modal shift relative to Business as Usual,shown in Figure E and Figure F below.Average urban neighborhood density(people per square mile)USA:AVERAGE URBAN DENSITIESURBAN DENSITY BY YEAR AND SCENARIO15,00020,0005,00010,0002000201020202030204020500ObservedMode Shift(Only)or Electrification ShiftBusiness as Usual or Electrification(Only)FIGURE D.Average urban densities15Mode Splits by Scenario and Year (by person-km traveled,rather than by trip;independent of overall travel activity,which grows over time)2015 Base Year2030 Business as Usual and Electrification(Only)2030 Mode Shift(Only)and Electrification Shift2050 Business as Usual and Electrification(Only)2050 Mode Shift(Only)and Electrification ShiftCar90f%Bus5%6%6%Rail1%1%2%1%3%2-wheeler1%1%1%1%1%Bicycle1%1%3%1%Walking1%1%2%1%4%MODAL SPLITS BY SCENARIO AND YEAR403020100AVERAGE PERSON-KM TRAVELED PER PERSON PER DAY2015 Base Year2030 Business as Usual&Electrification(Only)2050 Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification Shift2030 Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification Shift2050 Business as Usual&Electrification(Only)CarBus2-WheelerBicycleRailWalkingFIGURE E.Travel activityFIGURE F.Mode splits by percent of travel164.SCENARIO COMPATIBILITY WITH US CLIMATE COMMITMENTSThe United States commitments to greenhouse gas reductions are ambitious.Our modeling shows that the countrys decarbonization goals in the urban passenger transport sector can-not be met with Electrification or with Mode Shift alone,but require both strategies in concert.4.1.US Climate TargetsThe US has made commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help prevent cata-strophic climate change in this century.Specifically,all 196 Paris Agreement signatories agreed to“limit the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2C above pre-indus-trial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5C.”Additionally,after rejoining the Paris Agreement in early 2021,President Biden created the National Climate Task Force,a new body consisting of more than 25 cabinet-level leaders dis-tributed across federal agencies but with the following shared objectives:By 2030:Reduce US GHGs by 50Rlow 2005 levels By 2035:Reach 100rbon-pollution-free electricity By 2050:Achieve a net-zero emissions economy Delivering 40%of the benefits from federal investments in climate and clean energy to disadvantaged communities30This is a considerable increase from the previous US commitment to cutting emissions 26 per-cent to 28 percent by 2025,31 which was categorized as“critically insufficient”by the climate action tracker analysis.However,the revamped nationally-declared contribution(NDC)is not enough to reduce US domestic emissions to the levels necessary to stay within the Paris Agreements 1.5C limit.324.2.Scenario Impacts on Transport Emissions30 The White House,National Climate Task Force(n.d.),President Bidens actions to tackle the climate crisis(2021).Take Climate Action in Your Community.31 World Resources Institute(2022),US government sets target to reduce emissions 50R%by 2030.32 Climate Action Tracker(n.d.),Targets.Cumulative Lifecycle GHG(Mt CO2-EQ)USA:CUMULATIVE URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONSASSUMING MAXIMUM GRID DECARBONIZATION RATE25,00015,00020,0005,00010,00020202025203020352040204520500BAUSum:22,000 Mt CO2EQShift(Only)Sum:18,000 Mt CO2EQEV(Only)Sum:17,000 Mt CO2EQThreshold for warming below 1.5CLimit:14,000 Mt CO2EQEV SHIFTSum:15,000 Mt CO2EQThreshold for warming below 1.5CMode Shift(Only)Electrification ShiftHigh Electrification(Only)Business as UsualFIGURE G.Greenhouse gas emissions by scenario17Although the Electrification and the Mode Shift scenarios each would cause considerable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions,only the combined Electrification Shift scenario even comes close to keeping cumulative urban passenger transport emissions within a level potentially compatible with limiting climate change to 1.5C in this century,as shown by the area under the blue threshold curve33 in Figure G,above.34 However,even this most extensive scenario still falls short.Not only is Electrification Shift the only scenario that approaches holding global warming within Paris Agreement goals,it is the only scenario that approaches the USs goal of achieving Net Zero by 2050.With a decarbonized grid,electric vehicles will cause very low emissions through their operation.However,the use of cars,electric or not,will still lead to substantial emissions from the paving and maintenance of roads and from the production of steel,batteries,and other industrial pro-cesses involved in vehicle manufacture and disposal.Under the Electrification scenarios,as can be seen in Figure H,about half of emissions are from these sources,which are much more challenging to decarbonize.Indeed,electrification actually increases manufacturing emissions by about 25 percent relative to Business as Usual because of the emissions intensity of battery manufacture and of heavier vehicles.35 For the US to reach Net Zero by 2050,all emissions must be minimized,which can only be accomplished by combining Electrification with Mode Shift.Electrification alone also requires exponential growth in the use of scarce critical minerals for batteries.The environmental,environmental justice,and national security challenges entailed by that would be significantly mitigated by combining Electrification with Mode Shift and re-ducing overall dependence on passenger vehicles while electrifying.3633 Carbon budgets are allocated by the ratio of the USs cumulative emissions in the Business as Usual scenario to worldwide emissions in the Business as Usual scenario.For more detail,see the methodological appendix.34 Note:Our analysis shows that the Electrification Shift scenario will exceed the 1.5 threshold by nearly 1Gt,a shortfall that will need compensation from decarbonization of other sectors of the American economy.35 This 25 percent figure is conservative,based on the assumption of rapid decarbonization of the manufacturing sector by 2050.Eighty percent is a reasonable estimate today:See Andrew Moseman&Sergey Paltsev,MIT Climate Portal(2022),Are electric vehicles definitely better for the climate than gas-powered cars?36 Center on Global Energy Policy(2023),Q&A:Critical minerals demand growth in the net-zero scenario.FIGURE H.Annual greenhouse gas emissions by scenario and source5004003001002000MILLIONS OF TONNES OF CO2-EQ GHG PER YEARBusiness as UsualMode ShiftElectrification Electrification ShiftFuel/ElectricityInfrastructureVehicle ManufactureANNUAL URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONS AS OF 2050ASSUMING MAXIMUM GRID DECARBONIZATION RATE184.3.Mode Shift Reduces Dependence on Grid DecarbonizationMode Shift provides a hedge against obstacles that may arise in decarbonizing the electrical grid.By combining Mode Shift and Electrification,the US may still achieve substantial decar-bonization even if the shift to electric vehicles and/or renewable electricity generation is slower than optimistically projected.Electrification alone can substantially reduce transport emissions,but electric vehicles are only as clean as the grid that powers them.The USs electricity grid currently has an emissions intensity of roughly 230 g CO2eq per kWh.The results displayed in the previous section have assumed a highly ambitious level of grid decarbonization in line with the International Energy Agencys(IEA)Sustainable Development Scenario.Following this assumption,the grid emissions intensity falls to almost 0 g CO2/kWh by 2050in line with Americas Paris Agreement commitments.Notwithstanding the Biden Administrations goal of achieving a carbon pollutionfree grid by 2035,the combination of state policies,federal tax incentives in the IRA,and pending federal power sector regulations,current policies(as per IEAs Stated Policies Scenario)are only pro-jected to reach a grid intensity of about 120 g CO2eq/kWh by 2050,compared to 230 today.This is still an optimistic forecast,but in this case,our Electrification scenario loses some of its effectiveness in reducing cumulative emissions,while Mode Shift loses less,shown in Figure I above.In this case,none of the scenarios are under the blue area signifying compatibility with the 1.5C threshold,but Electrification Shift comes the closest.Cumulative Lifecycle GHG(Mt CO2-EQ)USA:CUMULATIVE URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONSASSUMING ASSUMING AMBITIOUS BUT MORE MODERATE GRID DECARBONIZATION RATE25,00015,00020,0005,00010,00020202025203020352040204520500Sum:23,000 Mt CO2EQSum:19,000 Mt CO2EQSum:18,000 Mt CO2EQThreshold for warming below 1.5CLimit:14,000 Mt CO2EQSum:16,000 Mt CO2EQThreshold for warming below 1.5CMode Shift(Only)Electrification ShiftHigh Electrification(Only)Business as UsualFIGURE I.Greenhouse gas emissions by scenario,assuming slower grid decarbonization19The more conservative grid decarbonization projections also shed light on the USs pros-pects for reaching its goal of Net Zero by 2050,as seen in Figure J.If grid decarbonization proceeds in line with current stated policies,it will be very difficult if not impossible for the US to achieve that goal without both Electrification and Mode Shift,and even in the combined scenario,an extensive carbon-recapture effort,beyond the possibilities of known technology,will be necessary.5006002000MILLIONS OF TONNES OF CO2-EQ GHG PER YEARBusiness as Usual(moderate grid decarbonization)Business as Usual(maximum grid decarbonization)Elecrification Shift(maximum grid decarbonization)Electrification Shift(moderate grid decarbonization)Mode Shift(moderate grid decarbonization)Mode Shift(maximum grid decarbonization)Electrification(moderate grid decarbonization)Electrification(maximum grid decarbonization)Fuel/ElectricityInfrastructureVehicle ManufactureANNUAL URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONS AS OF 2050FIGURE J.Annual greenhouse gas emissions by scenario,source,and contingency205.SCENARIO IMPACTS ON ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTIONMode Shift not only provides a degree of redundancy with Electrification,it also reduces the burden of rapid grid decarbonization by dramatically reducing the increased electricity de-mand that vehicle electrification will cause.Furthermore,Mode Shift increases resiliency at all levels by providing redundancy in transportation options.The Electrification(Only)scenario represents a major reduction in total energy consumption relative to Business as Usual,because electric vehicles are much more efficient per mile than internal-combustion vehicles.However,that reduction in total energy consumption comes with a great increase in the use of electricity in particular,seen in Figure K.In the Electrification scenario,urban passenger transport in the US will consume about 900 billion kWh of electricity annually by 2050.Electrification Shift reduces this consumption by about 40 percent(340 billion kWh),or the equivalent of the annual power generation of about 70,000 wind turbines.That might mean a reduction in the costs of building infrastructure for renewable power generation or freeing up electricity for other urgent needs in the face of the climate crisis.3,0004,0002,0001,0000BILLION KILOWATT-HOURS2015 Business as Usual2030 Business as Usual2030 Mode Shift(Only)2030 Electrification(Only)2030 Electrification ShiftEnergy from liquid fuelsEnergy from electricityENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE,SCENARIO,AND YEAR2050 Business As Usual2050 Mode Shift(Only)2050 Electrification(Only)2050 Electrification ShiftFIGURE K.Annual energy consumption 216.DIRECT PUBLIC AND PRIVATE EXPENSES IN EACH SCENARIO The Mode Shift and Electrification Shift scenarios offer efficiencies that could save about$13 trillion for the US economy overall,including savings to the public and private sectors.The structure of a transportation system has many impacts on a nations economy,direct and indirect.Our model tabulates only the direct impacts:the expenses of manufacturing,main-taining,fueling,and operating vehicles and the expenses of building and maintaining infra-structure.These are shown in Figure L.These expenses can be divided into those borne ultimately by the public sector and those borne ultimately by individuals.37 Mode Shift would lead to enormous economic savings for the American economya cumulative savings of about$13 trillion USD.Of this,at least$2 trillion USD in savings would accrue to national,state,and local governments,tabulated in Figure N in Section 7,below.Our calculations only include the direct costs of urban passenger transport and not indirect costs such as healthcare expenses related to vehicle collisions or sedentary lifestyles;costs related to air,noise,or water pollution;costs of farmland or natural areas lost to suburban sprawl;or,conversely,the economic benefits derived from job creation38.All of these indirect costs are likely to mean that the true economic benefit of Electrification Shift would be many times higher than what we have calculated.37 For the sake of conservatism,in these calculations we have assumed that the government will bear the entire cost of public transport operationsthat is,fares will be free.We do expect that public transport subsidies will increase in the Mode Shift scenarios,though possibly not to this extreme.38 Investments in public transit create nearly twice as many jobs per dollar as investments in new road-building.See:Transportation for America(2021),Road and public transit maintenance create more jobs than building new highways.FIGURE L.Annual direct costs of urban passenger transport60,00040,00020,0000BILLIONS OF 2023 USDBusiness as UsualMode Shift(Only)Electrification (Only)Electrification ShiftAnnual Private CostAnnual Public CostTOTAL DIRECT PUBLIC AND PRIVATE COSTS OF URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN 2050,BY SCENARIO227.MEASURABLE GOALS FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORTATIONIt is possible for the United States to achieve the Electrification Shift scenario.This scenario offers enormous savings to the public sector as well as private individuals and enterprises,while also reducing emissions from urban passenger transportation to the level most closely consistent with the countrys climate commitments.It will not require any additional funding beyond the resources that the United States already expends for urban passenger transpor-tationrather,Electrification Shift will only require a change in policies and a reallocation of resources.There are three elements that must come together to achieve the Electrification Shift scenar-io:first,increased vehicle efficiency,primarily through electrification;second,land-use reform to make trips shorter by promoting compact mixed-use cities;third,facilitating Mode Shift,primarily by providing alternative infrastructure but also by pricing car travel according to its true cost.In this section we provide evidence-based goals for each of these three elements based on the quantitative analysis in this study.If achieved,these goals would bring the benefits of the Electrification Shift scenario.These goals could be accomplished in many ways,and in Appendix A,we provide basic policy agendas at the federal,state,and local levels that could help the United States reach them.7.1.Goals for ElectrificationTo achieve the countrys climate commitments,electrification must proceed much more rap-idly than its current course.As discussed in Section 3.2.1,new sales of different vehicle types must be electrified at the rates shown in bold in Figure M below.Most importantly,60 percent of all new light-duty vehicle sales(cars and light trucks)must be electric by 2030,and 100 percent by or before 2050.This will require not only the EPAs current proposed standards,but also continuing policy effort and consumer incentives for decades to come.Percentages of New Vehicles that Are Electric(Rather than Internal-Combustion)Business as Usual and Mode Shift(Only)Electrification(Only)and Electrification Shift201520302050201520302050LDVs (cars and light trucks)20P%20%2-wheelers/motorcycles(not including e-bikes)2%5%20%Buses2E%2p0%7.2.Goals for Land UseMore compact,mixed-use urban form will have a two-fold benefit to the cities of the United States.First,when people live closer to their places of work or leisure,trips will be shorter,and so even ICE cars will emit less and cost motorists less.Second,when trips are shorter,they are easier to take by bicycle or public transport,facilitating Mode Shift.Achieving the Electrification Shift scenario and meeting the countrys climate commitments will require the US to adopt policies that make it possible for cities to become more compact.As described in Section 7.2 below,these policies will not require anyone to live in a dense neighborhood who does not wish toeven after decades of these policies,the majority of Americans will still live at urban densities that are very low by international standards.Reaching the Electrification Shift scenario will require policies that put the country on track for the population density distribution described in Section 3.2.2an increase from a current average weighted urban population density of approximately 13,000 people per square mile to 14,000 people per square mile in 2030 and 17,000 people per square mile by 2050.FIGURE M.Sales of electric vehicles by year and scenario237.3.Goals for Transportation InfrastructureThis analysis provides the clearest agenda for the third of the three components necessary to achieve the Electrification Shift scenario:the specific transportation infrastructure invest-ments that will be needed to achieve such levels of Mode Shift and the estimated savings that are possible by pursuing such a strategy.Figure N,below,indicates the extent of infrastructure and vehicle investment that the US must make to reach the Electrification Shift scenario.As shown in Figure N,the Shift element of the scenario will mean that federal,state,and local governments will save about$2 trillion USD by 2050.The expense of building and operating transit will be more than balanced by the reduced need to build and maintain highways.Total New Infrastructure and Vehicles Required 20152030Urban road lane-milesBRT lane-milesMetro rail lane-milesProtected bicycle lane-milesBusesTrain carsTotal cost to governments(billion USD)Business as Usual&Electrification(Only)180,000120814,000630,0003,500$5,100Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification Shift04,70078057,000770,0005,000$4,100Total new infrastructure and vehicles required 20152050Urban road lane-milesBRT lane-milesMetro rail lane-milesProtected bicycle lane-milesBusesTrain carsTotal cost to governments(billion USD)Business as Usual&Electrification(Only)350,00024016010,0001,700,0008,200$13,000Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification Shift026,0003,300190,0002,600,00018,000$11,000This analysis provides a clear road map for transportation infrastructure investments in cities across the United States.It makes a few points clear:Nationwide,the US will have to immediately stop building or expanding urban roadways for cars,focusing instead on maintenance of existing roadways and on increasing the ca-pacity of existing roadways by reallocating areas to more space-efficient modes of trans-port.This aligns with the studys findings concerning urban density,which show that the expansion of cities into rural or natural land must immediately stop and that growth must instead take place through the densification of existing areas.Cities across the country will have to build tens of thousands of miles39 of rapid transport by 2050.The majority,nearly 90 percent of this,will be bus rapid transport(BRT)rather than metro rail.40 This must be full BRT,as described in the BRT Standard:41 It must have center-running dedicated busways,with off-board fare payment,intersection priority,and platform-level boarding.Cities will also have to build hundreds of thousands of miles of bicycle lanes.These must be physically protected lanes,not merely lanes separated from vehicle traffic by painted lines,buffer space,or small bumpers that can be driven over.They also must be separat-ed from pedestrian traffic.This scale of transformation,while massive,is not unprecedented.Paris decreased car travel by almost 50 percent in 30 years by investing in other modes and traffic control strategies.Jakarta and Bogot have each built a mass transit system with more than a million riders a day in less than 15 years.Theres no reason why American cities cant do the same.39 Note that the numbers given in Figure N are for lane-miles or track-miles:A single mile of bidirectional rail is usually two track-miles;a single mile of six-lane highway is six lane-miles.40 Light rail could function as well as BRT but would be much more expensive.41 ITDP(2016),The BRT Standard.FIGURE N.Detailed description of infrastructure and investment requirements by scenario24APPENDIX A:BASIC POLICY AGENDAAchieving the goals enumerated in Section 7 will require committed,coordinated action at three levels of government in the US.Local governments including transit agencies and metropolitan planning organizations are already leading the way,not only at the city level but also at the county and regional levels.Localities must continue to embrace policies and infrastructure that will bring their residents cleaner air,safer streets,and greater economic inclusion.State governmentsespecially state departments of transportationmake many of the decisions that determine what transport infrastructure is prioritized.States must lead the way through decisions about state-level infrastructure,such as state highway systems.States must support leading localities in building what they need while also investing in other juris-dictions that lack the resources or capacity to plan new forms of infrastructure.The federal government must scale this transformation across the country,both by using its resources to subsidize vehicle electrification and infrastructure reform and also by streamlining processes such as environmental reviews that could counterproductively hinder,rather than facilitate,environmentally friendly transportation.Finally,the federal government must represent the US internationally,learning from success in other countries while also contributing to interna-tional policy efforts.This commitment and coordination must be simultaneously applied in the three areas of poli-cy described in Section 7.1,each of which requires the many interventions outlined below.We must reduce the emissions of each mode of transport,mostly by supporting electrification,but also by promoting more efficient and lighter-weight vehicles.This will be accomplished through policy,especially the EPAs proposed standards;through incentives such as fee-re-bate programs or low-emission zones;and through infrastructure,such as public charging facilities.We must reform land use to support compact cities in which travel distances are shorter by removing excessive zoning constraints and allowing“missing middle”housing by-right in all urban and suburban areas,while concentrating higher mid-rise development around arterial corridors.Parking requirements,in particular,must be removed across the board.Finally,we must support Mode Shift by reallocating road space and funding away from car infrastructure and toward walking,cycling,and public transport.All streets should be safe for pedestrians and cyclists of all ages,everyone should live within a short walk of a high-fre-quency bus line,and all arterials and interstates should have median-running dedicated busways.Around the country,we must stop building new urban roadways by the mid-2020s,focusing instead on reallocating existing space to use roadways more efficiently.I.Electrify Transportation with Policy,Incentives,and InfrastructureFederal Level1.Drive policy through setting ambitious national targets around transportation electri-fication,centering cross-agency collaboration and public/private partnerships in these efforts.42 2.Introduce federal incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles.43 The most effective incentives combine an increased cost for dirtier internal-combustion vehicles with a sub-sidy for cleaner electric ones.Similar incentives should increase the cost of larger,heavier vehicles while subsidizing lighter-weight,smaller vehicles.These may include fee-rebate structures and low-emission traffic zones.Structure subsidies,such as road-user charges,to consider social and economic equity parameters.3.Create federal funding opportunities for states to invest in smart-grid technologies that increase stability while regulating the supply of electricity to demand in real time.444.Invest in a“circular,diverse,and ethical battery supply chain”that satisfies demand and federal regulations regarding mineral use,battery sourcing,and assembly.45 5.Invest in a trained workforce to ensure solutions are workable.466.Strengthen federal vehicle design standards to require Intelligent Speed Assistance,au-tomated emergency braking,pedestrian and cyclist recognition systems,and other tech-nologies to ensure that electrification supports a zero-emission zero-death traffic system rather than making roads more dangerous with heavier e-vehicles.47 42 Office of Energy Efficiency&Renewable Energy(2023),The US National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization:A Joint Strategy to Transform Transportation;United States Environmental Protection Agency(2023),EPAs SmartWay Program;US Department of Energy(2023),DOEs Clean Cities.43 US Department of the Treasury(2023),IRS releases guidance to expand access to clean vehicle tax credits,help car dealers grow businesses.44 IEA(2023),Smart Grids;Grid Deployment Office(n.d.),Grid Resilience and Innovation Partnerships(GRIP)Program.45 RMI(2023),How policy actions can spur EV adoption in the United States.46 Office of Energy Efficiency&Renewable Energy(2023),The US National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization:A Joint Strategy to Transform Transportation.47 TRB Annual Meeting Keynote with NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy;NTSB chair Jennifer Homendy calls out“27 years of inaction”on V2X;Wired(2023),Supersize EVs are pushing road safety to the limit;National Association of City Transportation Officials(n.d.),Vehicle Design.25State Level1.Set state-level timelines for zero-emission vehicle purchasing targets(new and used mar-kets)and ICE phase-out targets for all public and private vehicles including cars,vans,buses,and light-and heavy-duty trucks.Prioritize bus electrification;public vehicle tar-gets can help set the stage for private vehicle markets.2.Introduce state-level incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles(including e-bikes),combining an increased cost for internal-combustion vehicles with rebates48 or subsidies for electric ones.3.Introduce credit/deficit programs for vehicle manufacturers that incentivize increased EV sales,49 requiring that“deficits”incurred by sales of ICE vehicles be offset by clean vehicle sales.4.Leverage federal funding opportunities for smart-grid technologies to ensure that the grid can support high vehicle electrification.50Local Level1.Pursue bus electrification and identify a timeline for fleet transition.2.Establish low-emission zones to encourage electric vehicle transition.3.Scale up charging stations for four-and two-wheeled EVs.Pursue private sector partnerships for charging sites51 and partnerships with energy providers52 for implementation.Consider incentives for charging placement in multi-dwelling units.53 Streamline regulations and pro-curement barriers to facilitate private provision of on-street EV charging in cities.54 II.Reform Land-Use Policy,Update Zoning Laws,and Incentivize Sustainable,Mixed-Use,Transport-Oriented DevelopmentFederal Level1.Use federal legislation to tie funds to rezoning policies listed below,clearing the way for more connected neighborhoods with denser housing in both urban and suburban environments.55 State Level1.Use state-level legislation to either directly enact the policies listed in C,below,or else require municipalities to do so.2.Drive compact development and earmark affordable housing by enacting structural incen-tives for developers56(expedited permits,additional floors,tax credits).Local Level1.Reform zoning codes to permit by-right pedestrian-oriented,mid-rise,mixed-use devel-opment within about two thirds of a mile of urban and suburban arterial roads.2.Even in areas more than two thirds of a mile from arterial roads,reform use-based zon-ing57 in favor of mixed-use zoning,by-right permission of“missing middle,”58 and walkability.593.Structure property taxes to charge the cost of infrastructure(sewers and roads)that serve development outside already built-up areas.604.Revise building codes to permit single-loaded“point access block”buildings.61 5.Remove parking requirements for development.62,63 III.Support Mode Shift by Optimizing the Use of Road Space with Walking,Cycling,and Public TransportFederal Level1.Grant a categorical exemption under the National Environmental Protection Act law to walking and cycling projects and streamline review of public transit projects.642.Mandate that state DOTs follow the policy guidance in B,below.3.By the mid-2020s,in line with this studys projections,cease new construction and expansion of urban roads.Use resources for maintaining and optimizing existing roadways by reallocat-ing space to walking,bicycling,and public transport.48 Drive Clean Rebate for Electric Cars(n.d.),Consumer FAQ.49 Department of Environmental Protection(2021),DEP Commissioner Latourette announces adoption of clean truck rules,setting New Jersey on path for zero-emission vehicle future.50 IEA(2023)Smart Grids;Grid Deployment Office(n.d.),Grid Resilience and Innovation Partnerships(GRIP)Program.51 Joint Office of Energy and Transportation(2023),Private Sector Continues to Play Key Part in Accelerating Buildout of EV Charging Networks.52 US Department of Transportation(n.d.),Electric Utilities as EV Planning Partners.53 RMI(2023),How Policy Actions Can Spur EV Adoption in the United States.54 Daily News(2022),The electric revolution,leaving Black and Brown communities behind.55 The YIMBY Act,for example,which passed the House in August 2023,ties federal grants to reporting and responding to obstacles in zoning reform.See:American Planning Association(2023),What to expect in state legislatures on zoning reform in 2023.56 USGBC(2014),Good to know:Green building incentive strategies.57 Harvard Political Review(2021),How bad housing policy can shape a nation.(For an example of undoing single-family zoning,see Bloomberg(2022),What happened when Minneapolis ended single-family zoning.)58 Missing Middle Housing is a range of house-scale buildings with multiple unitscompatible in scale and form with detached single-family homes located in a walkable neighborhood.59 Form-Based Code Institute(n.d.),Standards of Practice for Form-Based Codes.60 Department of Environmental Conservation(n.d.),Open Space.61 Unlocking Development with Point Access Blocks(2023).62 Parking Reform Network(n.d.),Parking Reform Map.63 ITDP(n.d.),Breaking the Code:Off-Street Parking Reform;Urban Land Institute(n.d.),Types of Off-Street Parking Policy Updates.64 VICE(2022),Why doesnt America build things?264.Modernize the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices to permit the construction of safe multimodal streets.655.Authorize,facilitate,and support the retrofit of interstate highways with bus rapid transit.Support the retrofit of all other roads that receive federal maintenance funding to reallo-cate road space to walking,cycling,and public transit.6.Update federal reporting requirements for road and transit projects undertaken at the state level,mandating reporting on emissions levels and health risks that account for induced demand.66 Appropriately account for demand elasticity and consider the accuracy of historic projections.7.Revise the formula by which federal funds are allocated disproportionately to road and highway projects compared to mass transit.678.Introduce federal e-bike subsidies.9.Tie all federal transport funding programs to the national transport goals(23 USC 150)for accountability.10.Reform the National Highway Performance Program and the Surface Transportation Block Grant Program to ensure that road projects are not favored over investments in walking,cycling,or transit.68State Level1.Adopt a“fix it first and fix it right”approach to repairing road infrastructure rather than spending on increasing road capacity.692.Move from a“predict and provide”to a“decide and provide”modeling framework for making data-based infrastructure plans.Adopt induced-travel-sensitive impact models that consider all modes of travel equally,measuring access to destinations and capturing all impacts of transportation(including air pollution,noise pollution,GHG emissions,and road safety),not only travel time.3.When measuring the economic impacts of time lost in congestion,use empirical evidence70 of how much drivers value their time rather than textbook,unproven assumptions.4.Switch from gas taxes to vehicle-mile-traveled taxes.715.Bring the cost of driving in line with its negative externalities,clearing the way for mea-sures like low-emission zones(LEZs)and congestion charging by reshaping state and fed-eral law to encourage their city-level deployment.72,736.Introduce time-and place-based road-use charges to many existing limited-access free-ways and devote revenues to BRT and high-quality transit services and ridesharing incen-tives that serve tolled corridors.74 7.Introduce state-level e-bike and e-cargo-bike subsidies to offset the cost of transitioning from less sustainable modes.8.Ensure transport projects are planned with a full picture of associated greenhouse gas emission performance.75 9.Grant a categorical exemption under state-level environmental review to walking and cycling projects,and streamline review of public transit projects.10.Align citizen input and feedback mechanisms with the scale of the problem being addressed.For example,neighborhoods should have meaningful input on how a citywide plan is imple-mented in their area,but not the ability to veto overall plans or safety improvements.76Local Level1.Use traffic-calming techniques,build or widen sidewalks,and build or maintain cross-walks(with wheelchair-friendly curb cuts)on all streets and intersections.Every street in an urban or suburban area should feel safe for everyone,including young children and those with physical disabilities.Follow guidance such as the National Association of City Transportation Officials Urban Street Design Guide.772.Build a connected network of physically protected low-stress78 bicycle lanes to ensure that everyone feels safe(e-)bicycling from their homes to necessary destinations,even in other neighborhoods.3.Redesign out-of-date bus networks to focus on establishing a network of frequent,con-nected service to maximize access to-destinations and inclusive ridership.794.Build a connected,integrated network of physically separated,center-running BRT80 on all 65 National Association of City Transportation Officials(n.d.),Modernizing Federal Standards:Making the MUTCD Work for Cities.66 RMI(n.d.),SHIFT Calculator State Highway Induced Frequency of Travel.67 ENO Center for Transportation(2021),Explainer:What the“8020 Highway-Transit Split”Really Is,and What it Isnt.68 Georgetown Climate Center(2021),Issue brief:Estimating the greenhouse gas impact of federal infrastructure investments in the IIJA.69 Office of Energy Efficiency&Renewable Energy(2023),The US National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization:A Joint Strategy to Transform Transportation.70 CityCommentary(2017),What HOT lanes reveal about the value of travel time.71 Tax Foundation(2020),Who Will Pay for the Roads?72 itdp.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ITDP-LEZ-Brief.pdf;section three on equity.73 Greenlining Institute(2021),Low and Zero Emission Zones:Opportunities and Challenges in Designing Equitable Clean Transportation Policies.74 Patrick DeCorla-Souza(2022),Converting existing general-purpose lanes to high-occupancy/toll lanes:An exploratory evaluation;Patrick DeCorla-Souza and Paul Minett(2023),Relieving traffic congestion and accommodating travel growth without expanding highways:A policy evaluation for the eastern segment of the Capital Beltway.75 Georgetown Climate Center(2023),Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding has the potential to reduce GHG pollution from transportation in New Jersey.76 See:Steve Higashide(2019),Better Buses Better Cities,“Get representative,strategic public input,”pp.136137.77 National Association of City Transportation Officials(n.d.),Urban Street Design Guide.78 Mineta(2012),Low-stress bicycling and network connectivity.79 Jarrett Walker,Human Transit(2021),Basics:Access,or the wall around your life.80 ITDP(2016),The BRT Standard.27arterial roads and highways.Use left-turn restrictions81 on roads that are not grade-sepa-rated.Focus on building stations in the most densely populated or densely used areas.5.Ensure provision of an adequate supply of secure bicycle parking at transit stops,with protected cycleways connecting transit to activity centers and neighborhoods.82 6.Implement demand-sensitive pricing for curb parking in all neighborhoods.In heavily congested areas,implement transportation demand-management policies such as con-gestion charging.7.For all local aspects of project review and funding allocation,follow the guidance given in B above.8.Fund and hire government staff positions need to implement the transportation priorities listed above.APPENDIX B:IMAGINING COMPACT CITIES ELECTRIFIED IN THE USThe context of the US presents a particular set of challenges:The long history of car-oriented development,concentration of authority at the state level,and political polarization all stand in the way of rapid electrification and modal shift.However,the US also has unique opportu-nities:Immense funding is available through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act(IIJA)and Inflation Reduction Act(IRA).Political will to improve transportation is building rapidly,and the country is seeing a surge in technological advancement in electrification.Section 2.1 of this report has presented a qualitative exploration of the studys four scenari-os;Section 3.2 defined them quantitatively.Appendix A provided a policy agenda for the city,state,and local levels to help achieve this future.Here,Appendix B will present a narrative of what the Electrification Shift future might look like in the US,taking the urban area of Dallas as an example.The DallasFort Worth metropolitan area exemplifies the challenges shared by the country.It is the fastest-growing of large US cities,and among the most sprawling and car-dependent.A full quarter of the citys downtown has been given over to parking lots,and 96 percent of com-muters drive to work.83 Historical injustices,including but not only“redlining,”have resulted in spatial segregation that limits economic opportunities to this day.84 A light rail,completed in the year 2000,has failed to generate large ridership due to meandering routes that often avoid the most densely populated areas.85 Staggering income inequality between vehicle own-ers and public transport riders is both a cause and effect of missed opportunities in a work-force where car ownership is often the price of entry.Dallas also exemplifies the opportunities available to the US.Only about 1 percent of regis-tered vehicles in Dallas are electric as of October 2023,86 but while current EV sales may be low,theyre rising quickly;Dallas leads the state in electric vehicle sales,accounting for 38 percent of the Texas totala 54 percent increase over a year ago.State and local subsidies such as tax rebates as well as regional initiatives have encouraged the adoption of EVs,and the cost of charging has been kept low.Like most cities throughout the midwestern and west-ern parts of the US,the Dallas region has a relatively consistent grid pattern in its street network,meaning its geography can be efficiently served by bus transitand the regions bus transit has recently been made 30 percent more efficient in connecting people to destinations and across income levels by a network redesign.87 Dallas has also begun maximizing the im-pact of its light rail system through transit-oriented development,88 while the city government has started rejecting highway expansions.89The next steps for DallasFort Worth,and regions across the country,are clear.Ramp up fee-rebate programs to subsidize electric vehiclesincluding e-bicycles and other small ve-hicleswhile bringing ICE vehicle costs in line with their negative externalities.Invest heavily in public charging infrastructure and enable vehicle-to-grid technology.Reform the zoning code to permit mid-rise multifamily buildings and small-scale retail within a quarter mile of all arterials to permit smaller multifamily construction everywhere,to encourage accessory dwelling units,and to remove all parking minimums.Also provide measures for greater hous-81 National Association of City Transportation Officials(n.d.),Transit Street Design Guide.82 US Department of Transportation(2022),Improving safety for pedestrians and bicyclists accessing transit.83 American Community Survey(2022).84 Ken Kalthoff(2020).Redlining effects still seen in Dallas.85 Yonah Freemark,The Transport Politic(n.d.),An extensive new addition to Dallas light rail network makes it Americas longest.86 DFW Clean Cities(2021),Electric Vehicles in Texas.87 Jarrett Walker,Human Transit(2022),Dallas:Welcome to Your New Network 88 City of Dallas Office of Economic Development(not dated)TOD TIF District 89 Robert Wilonsky,The Dallas Morning News(2019),Dallas City Hall beats back TxDOTs early plans for I-30s$1.3 billion makeover.28ing affordability,90 as raising supply alone is rarely adequate for the lowest-income residents.Invest immediately in large-scale expansion of the bus fleet using electric buses to create citywide grids of high-frequency bus service.Reallocate road space to build center-running bus rapid transit on all main arterials and interstate highways.Build protected bicycle lanes on all multi-lane roads.Build wide sidewalks and safe,marked crosswalks suitable for people in wheelchairs on all streets.These policies all have precedents in the United States.Many cities have already implemented several,making dramatic strides in zoning reform and extensive development of BRT and cy-cling infrastructure.91After 25 years of these policies,a representative resident might live in a decades-old bunga-low thats been expanded to fit a second housing unit with a separate front door.Other fam-ilies may save money by living in a small or mid-rise apartment building.With more housing and transportation options,all families will have the option to save money by forgoing the cost of buying a car.In most neighborhoods,families will be able to take a short,comfortable,and safe walk or e-bike ride to their local park,their kids school or day care,or a grocery store.If they commute,theyll be able to walk or take a shared e-bike to a BRT line and get to work in the same time that it used to take driving in traffic.Many residents of the DallasFort Worth area,along with other regions in the US,will be able to live without a car,though many will still own and drive them.These vehicles will be electric,and despite having less dedicated road space,reduced demand will mean traffic remains con-sistent with todays levels.When someone arrives at their destination by car,finding a parking space with an electric charger will be convenient but probably not free.While theyre parked,their vehicle might serve as a backup battery to the grid,part of a decentralized network help-ing to manage the difference between peak-hour demand and the supply of power from wind and solar generation.While these changes may seem hard to imagine,there is precedent.They represent a return to a time-tested form of urban planning common in the United States for most of its 250-year history,based around the needs of people and commerce.The relatively recent shift toward car-centric planning represents a sharp break from both tradition and economic efficiency.Throughout the history of the US,the countrys cities have reinvented themselves many times,often showing dramatic transformations over the course of short decades.In the face of the climate crisis,another transformation is possible.APPENDIX C:METHODOLOGICAL DOCUMENTATIONBecause of its length,the methodological documentation has not been included in this layout of the report.It is available at LINK.90 For example,see:NYC Housing Preservation&Development(2023),Low-income housing tax credits;University of Texas Arlington College of Architecture,Planning and Public Affairs(2017),Transport Equity.91 Jake Blumgart,Governing:The Future of States and Localities(2022),How important was the single-family zoning ban in Minneapolis?29Taylor Reich itdpLew Fulton uc davisJanuary 2024Institute for Transportation&Development Policy
2024-12-29
29页
5星级
Compact Cities Electrified:MexicoBRIEF FOR POLICYMAKERS2New research from the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy and the University of California,Davis,finds that Mexico could feasibly reduce the total direct costs of urban passenger transport to the public and private sectors by$MXN 24,000,000 million through 2050,including$MXN 4,000,000 million1 in savings for federal,state,and local governments,while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions to a level consistent with Mexicos international commitments.This will require a combination of strategies to support vehicle electrification,compact city planning,and modal shift toward walking,cycling,and public transit.Only the combination of these strategies,not any strategy alone,will be sufficient to achieve the full benefits of decarbonization and cost savings.This study investigates four possible scenarios for urban passenger transport in Mexico:Business as Usual:Mexicos current trend of stagnation or slow growth in public transport,walking and cycling combined with rapid growth in car usage,and gradual electrification of vehicles Electrification(Only):The fastest feasible replacement of internal-combustion vehicles with electric ones,reaching 100%of new vehicle sales by 2050.Mode Shift(Only):The fastest feasible transformation of city planning priorities in favor of compact land use and public transport,walking,and bicycling,preventing any further increase in car driving.Electrification Mode Shift:The combination of the previous two scenarios.The estimated requirements to achieve each scenario and the cumulative public-sector expenditure entailed are shown in Figure A.In addition to cost savings,the Electrification Mode Shift scenario would reduce electricity consumption by 30,000 million kWh per year by 2050 compared to Electrification(Only).Qualitatively,this scenario would improve road safety,promote economic inclusion of marginalized groups,and reduce air pollution.INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS AND DIRECT PUBLIC COSTS BY SCENARIO Percent of newlight-dutyvehicles that areelectricCumulativelane-km ofroadwaybuilt 20152050Cumulativetrack-km ofmetro rail built20152050Cumulativelane-km ofprotectedbikeway built20152050Cumulative publicsector expenditure onurban passengertransport 20152050Cumulative public sector expenditure on urban passenger transport 2015-20202015 Baseline0 50 Business as Usual2050 Electrification(Only)5000,000140,0004004009009005,4005,400$MXN 43,000,000million2050 Mode Shift(Only)50%,0006004,30019,000$MXN 43,000,000million2050 Electrification Mode Shift100%,0006004,30019,000$MXN 39,000,000million2050 Electrification Mode Shift100%,0006004,30019,000$MXN 39,000,000millionThe research also measures greenhouse gas emissions from urban passenger transportation2 in each scenario.The results add to a growing body of evidence3 and show that achieving Mexicos Paris Agreement commitments will require both the complete electrification of vehicles and a change in travel patterns in favor of public transport and nonmotorized mobility.It is insufficient for Electrification or Mode Shift to occur at the fastest possible rate 1 Throughout the report,numbers are written in a semi-extensive format to avoid lexical ambiguity of the meaning of billion/trillion between English and Spanish.The figure 4,000,000 million should be read as 4,000,000,000,000,or 4x1012.This number would be read as trillions by US English speakers,and as billones by most Spanish speakers.2 The studys scope is limited to urban passenger transport.No kind of freight transport was included,nor intercity or rural transport.3 Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico(2023),Ruta Emisiones Netas Cero para Mxico 2060,desde Sociedad Civil.FIGURE A3independent of each otherit is only by maximizing both of these complementary strategies that Mexico can reduce emissions fast enough to approach a level consistent with holding global warming below 1.5C(represented by the blue area in Figure B).GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SCENARIOMexican cities have a strong foundation of public transport usage,but this foundation is threatened by a trend of rapid growth in car use.That trend is spurred by the indirect subsidy that drivers receive in the form of an inequitable allocation of street space and infrastructure.To achieve the Electrification Mode Shift scenario,Mexico must invest in improving existing infrastructure for public transport,walking,and bicycling,while rapidly reallocating road space and transport funding away from car-centric infrastructure.Such restructuring must be accompanied by incentives and mandates for vehicle electrification,construction of compact mixed-use cities,and travel demand management measures such as vehicle emission restrictions and parking prices to reflect its true cost.In all scenarios,a substantial amount of travel will still be made by car,but the Electrification Mode Shift scenario will offer Mexicans a wide range of travel options using clean,efficient vehicles.The distances traveled might also be reduced,partly by increased density,but more by an increase in mixed-use neighborhoods.This scenario is not an unprecedented revolution:It is a return to a tradition of people-focused city building that has proven successful in Mexican cities throughout most of the countrys history as well as in cities around the world.FIGURE BCumulative Lifecycle GHG(Mt CO2-EQ)INDIA:CUMULATIVE URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONSASSUMING MAXIMUM GRID DECARBONIZATION RATE2,5001,50050020202025203020352040204520500BAUSum:2,200 Mt CO2EQShift(Only)Sum:1,800 Mt CO2EQEV(Only)Sum:1,700 Mt CO2EQLow estimate of limit:2,200 Mt CO2EQEV SHIFTSum:1,600 Mt CO2EQThreshold for warming below 1.5CMode Shift(Only)Electrification ShiftElectrification(Only)Business as Usual4ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSLEAD AUTHORS:Lewis Fulton University of California,Davis Director,Sustainable Transportation Energy PathwaysD.Taylor Reich Institute for Transportation and Development Policy(Global)Data Science Manager Emilio Romero Institute for Transportation and Development Policy(Mexico)Urban Development CoordinatorSUPPORTING AUTHORS:Manuel Blanco Institute for Transportation and Development Policy(Global)Transport Data Intern Santiago Fernndez Institute for Transportation and Development Policy(Mexico)Urban Development and Research ManagerAlejandro Lerma Institute for Transportation and Development Policy(Mexico)Public Policy AnalystFarhana Sharmin University of California,Davis Graduate Student ResearcherNaomi Varinois Institute for Transportation and Development Policy(Mexico)Public Policy AnalystREVIEWERS:Luisa Sierra Brozon Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico Energy DirectorRodrigo Daz World Resources Institute Mobility DirectorGustavo Jimnez Grupo Emobilitas Executive DirectorMa.Isabel Studer Sostenibilidad Global AC.Noguez Founding DirectorPUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 2024COVER PHOTO:Electric bus arrives into a renovated Metrobs Station in Mexico City.SOURCE:Eduardo Pesado y Diego Albarrn5CONTENTSCOMPACT CITIES ELECTRIFIED:MEXICO1.BACKGROUND2.FOUR SCENARIOS3.METHODOLOGY 3.1.STRUCTURING THE MODEL 3.2.DEFINING SCENARIOS 3.2.1.SCENARIOS FOR ELECTRIFICATION RATES 3.2.2.SCENARIOS FOR MODE SHIFT RATES4.SCENARIO COMPATIBILITY WITH MEXICO CLIMATE COMMITMENTS 4.1.MEXICO CLIMATE TARGETS 4.2.SCENARIO IMPACTS ON TRANSPORT EMISSIONS 4.3.MODE SHIFT REDUCES DEPENDENCE ON GRID DECARBONIZATION5.SCENARIO IMPACTS ON ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION6.DIRECT PUBLIC AND PRIVATE EXPENSES IN EACH SCENARIO7.MEASURABLE GOALS FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION 7.1.GOALS FOR ELECTRIFICATION 7.2.GOALS FOR LAND USE 7.3.GOALS FOR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTUREAPPENDIX A:BASIC POLICY AGENDA 1.ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORTATION THROUGH POLICIES AND INCENTIVES FEDERAL LEVEL B.STATE LEVEL C.MUNICIPAL LEVEL2.REFORMS TO LAND-USE POLICIES,ZONING,MIXED-USE,AND TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT.A.FEDERAL LEVEL B.STATE LEVEL C.MUNICIPAL LEVEL3.SUPPORT MODE SHIFT BY OPTIMIZING THE USE OF ROAD SPACE WITH WALKING,CYCLING,AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT FEDERAL LEVEL STATE LEVEL LOCAL LEVELAPPENDIX B:IMAGINING COMPACT CITIES ELECTRIFIED IN MEXICOAPPENDIX C:METHODOLOGICAL DOCUMENTATION6Road-building is by far the greatest expense that Mexican governments face in urban transportation.Even though metro or BRT is more costly per lane-kilometer,it is much less expensive per passenger,and bicycle lanes are far less expensive in every sense.By serving the public with mass transit and bicycle infrastructure instead of roads,Mexican states and cities will have more resources to devote to other uses or to lower taxes.4 And when they are not forced to spend so much money on fuel and private vehicles,Mexican families will have the freedom to invest more in other areas of their life.By protecting our planet from the worst threats of climate change,we will make it possible for the country to prosper long into the future.1.BACKGROUNDThis study is the culmination of a decade of collaboration in transport modeling between ITDP and the University of California,Davis.5 Ten years of effort have produced a detailed method for high-level modeling of urban passenger transportation,but this study of Indiaalong with sibling studies of other countriesis the first time the model has been used to publish analytical results for a single country.Like its predecessor,The Compact City ScenarioElectrified,the current publication compares the impacts of maximum-feasible electrification,modal shift,and the combination of the two.But while the previous report focused on the global need to pursue both strategies,this study describes the specifics of what will be needed for India to accomplish these goals.We have estimated the quantities and costs of infrastructure that will be required in different scenarios for Indias future to provide a“road map”for how those scenarios might be realized.This study is the culmination of a decade of collaboration in transport modeling between ITDP and the University of California,Davis.6 Ten years of effort have produced a detailed method for high-level modeling of urban and suburban passenger transportation,but the study of Mexico and parallel studies of other countries mark the first time the model has been used to publish analytical results for a single country.Like its predecessor,The Compact City ScenarioElectrified,the current publication compares the economic and environmental implications of four scenarios for the future of urban passenger transportation:1)the current trajectory;2)intensive electrification;3)intensive mode shift;and 4)the combination of the latter two.But while the previous report focused on the global need to pursue these strategies,this study describes the specifics for Mexico.In addition to quantifying the emissions that each scenario would entail,we have also estimated the quantities and costsor savingsof infrastructure that would result from different scenarios for the future of Mexico.These results provide a“road map”for how those scenarios might be realized.2.FOUR SCENARIOSLike the global study and parallel reports for other countries,this research investigates four scenarios for urban passenger transport in Mexico through 2050.These scenarios are diagrammed in Figure A.We start by understanding these scenarios qualitatively,including a summary of the impacts that they might have outside the scope of our modeling analysisfactors such as public health and economic inclusion.In Section 3(page 12),we define these scenarios quantitatively for modeling.4 The numbers are summarized in Figure A(above)and shown in detail in Section 7 of the report.6 ITDP&UC Davis(2021),The Compact City ScenarioElectrified;ITDP&UC Davis(2017),Three Revolutions in Urban Transportation;ITDP&UC Davis(2015),A Global High Shift Cycling Scenario;ITDP&UC Davis(2014),A Global High Shift Scenario:Impacts and Potential for More Public Transport,Walking and Cycling with Lower Car Use.FASTRATE OF ELECTRIFICATIONSLOWELECTRIFICATION ONLYBUSINESSAS USUALMODE SHIFTAND ELECTRIFICATIONMODE SHIFT ONLYSLOWFASTRATE OF MODE SHIFT7BUSINESS AS USUAL(“BAU”)Assumptions:Qualitative impacts:Mexico continues its current trajectory.Private motorized travel increases,remaining responsible for about 50%of urban passenger travel but increasing by around 25%in terms of total person-km.Increase in traffic fatalities1High direct public and private costs2Increasing gap in access to opportunities between people with and without cars,possibly leading to increased wealth inequality3Increase in local air pollution,causing many premature deaths and increased healthcare costs4Increase in urban highways and sprawl primarily in midsize cities,with a lack of vertical development5Increase in carbon emissions,leading to climate catastrophe61 Mexico City has seen a 19%increase in traffic fatalities in the past five years.See:SEMOVI(2024),Reporte trimestral de hechos de trnsito.2 For example,highway infrastructure spending per mile has risen dramatically:Accounting for inflation,$8 million in the 1960s per mile became$30 million per mile by the 1990s.See:American Economic Association(2023),Infrastructure Costs.3 National Equity Atlas,Indicator:Car Access.4 Despite great gains in air quality in the US,as of 2022,approximately 85 million people nationwide lived in counties with pollution levels above National Ambient Air Quality Standards.Increased natural events such as wildfires partially due to climate change will further erode air quality.See Union of Concerned Scientists(2014),Vehicles,Air Pollution,and Human Health;United States Environmental Protection Agency(2023),Air Quality National Summary,19802022.5 SEDATU(2022),Poltica Nacional de Suelo.6 Andrew Moseman,MIT Climate Portal(2022),Are electric vehicles definitely better for the climate than gas-powered cars?The answer is yes,though the extent to which improvement is meaningful is based on electricity source and manufacturing emissions.The Business as Usual scenario will encourage car-oriented development with a limited increase of clean energy.8ELECTRIFICATION(ONLY)Assumptions:Qualitative impacts:Key policies:Electrification proceeds much more rapidly than is currently projected,in alignment with the latest draft for the National Strategy for Electric Mobility from 20231,with 50%of new vehicles(cars,buses,and two-wheelers)electric by 2030 and 100fore 2050.Sharp reduction in carbon emissions2Sharp reduction in local air and noise pollution3Reduced costs of operation for public transport as well as many private vehiclesRoad safety benefit if technology such as speed regulators or automatic braking is included in EVsThe negative impacts of car-based infrastructure listed in Business as Usual also applyConsumption of limited supply of critical minerals,raising concerns related to extractive industries,conservation,national security,and supply chainSupply-and demand-side EV incentivesAmbitious fuel economy and tailpipe GHG emission standardsBattery reuse and recyclingEquitable placement of standardized public charging points for EVs(including two-wheelers)Electric grid expansion and decarbonizationGradual reduction of fossil fuel subsidies1 The latest draft from 2023 has not yet been published as official national policy.https:/www.cofemersimir.gob.mx/portales/resumen/55366666666666666666666666662 With high electrification,the emissions from transport will be reduced sharply.See:Andrew Mosemen,MIT Climate Portal(2022).Are electric vehicles definitely better for the climate than gas-powered cars?3 Tsoi et al.(2023),The co-benefits of electric mobility in reducing traffic noise and chemical air pollution:Insights from a transit-oriented city.9METHODOLOGYMODE SHIFT(ONLY)Assumptions:Key policies:Qualitative impacts:Compact city planning and development is combined with reallocation of both funding and street space to walking,bicycling,and public transport.In this case,Mexico considerably reduces the construction of new urban roadways,focusing instead on providing denser housing,mixed land use,retrofitting intra-urban services,and better bus/bicycle infrastructure on existing roadways to increase accessibility to peripheral areas in cities.Total car travel(in person-km)remains constant,while the percentage of travel by car falls dramatically.Reduction in traffic fatalities1Increased access to opportunities,especially for low-income people and other groups suffering from spatial segregationpeople with disabilities and the elderly or young2Increase in walking and cycling,which improves physical and mental health,reducing healthcare costs3High local air and noise pollution from internal-combustion(ICE)vehicles relative to Electrification(Only)Reallocation of transport budgets to walking,cycling,and public transport,especially BRTStreet redesigns that shift space from travel lanes and parking to BRT lanes,physically protected bicycle lanes,and footpathsPromotion of bicycles,especially shared electric bicyclesDesign of pedestrian and cycling infrastructure promotes safe and comfortable trips,including adaptations to different climatic conditionsZoning reforms with an inclusion perspective to promote denser development that considers affordable housing options and mixed land uses 1 Smart Growth America&The National Complete Streets Coalition(2022),Dangerous by Design.2 See:National Library of Medicine(2023),Does the compact city paradigm help reduce poverty?Note,this is most effective in mitigating poverty in combination with housing affordability measures;also see Urban Institute(not dated),Causes and consequences:Separate and unequal neighborhoods.3 Matthew Raifman et al.(2021),Mortality implications of increased active mobility for a proposed regional transportation emission cap-and-invest program.10ELECTRIFICATION SHIFTAssumptions:Qualitative impacts:Key policies:Compact cities and policies to prevent an increase in driving,combined with rapid electrification:Electrification and Mode Shift together.Reduction in traffic fatalities1Increased access to opportunities for allIncrease in walking and cycling,which improve physical and mental health,reducing healthcare costExtensive reduction in local air and noise pollutionMassive reduction in carbon emissions consistent with the objectives of the Paris AgreementAll policies listed for Electrification(Only)and for Mode Shift(Only),except for expansion of urban highwaysCreation of low-emission areas to incentivize both mode shift and vehicle electrification1 Smart Growth America&The National Complete Streets Coalition(2022),Dangerous by Design.11Achieving the Electrification or Mode Shift scenarios would require profound and challenging changes in Mexican policy.However,these changes are possible under Mexicos current political and economic structure.A key barrier to this scenario is an increase in population and income,which can entail more private vehicle use.Political will is required to improve mobility systems so that public transport,walking,and cycling are more convenient and attractive for urban transport than driving,and even as more of the population gains the income that would enable car ownership,people will continue to choose to travel by sustainable modes.This improvement will involve restructuring how transportation budgets are allocated,how street space is used,how travel in private vehicles is regulated,and how taxes and subsidies are applied to vehicles and fuel.But these are incremental changes that can be reached in the current system.In Appendix B,we envision a narrative for the Electrification Mode Shift scenario in the city of Monterrey,Mexico.123.METHODOLOGYThis study uses the same methods as the 2021 Compact City ScenarioElectrified and the other 2023/2024 country-level studies published by ITDP and UC Davis.In each of these studies,we define four scenarios and estimate their impacts using the same modeling methods.This section will first describe the structure of these modeling methods and then outline our process for defining the scenarios that are taken as modeling input.Our application of this model to Mexico has been reviewed by experts representing a range of national specialist institutions to help ensure accuracy.These experts names and affiliations are listed on this briefs title page.For a more detailed description of the methodology,including a complete set of data,please review the accompanying methodological appendix.3.1.STRUCTURING THE MODELOur study is limited to urban passenger transportation and does not include intercity travel,rural travel,or freight transport of any kind.We define“urban”based on United Nations data,including all urban or suburban areas of 300,000 people or more.7 This definition encompasses about 80%of the Mexican population.8 Other research shows that both Electrification and Mode Shift will be necessary to decarbonize rural/intercity9 and freight10 transport,and this focus in our scope allows us to model urban and suburban travel with more precision.Our model is calibrated to industry-standard data from the International Energy Agencys Mobility Model11 except where more detailed Mexico-specific data is available.The base year modal split was determined using Mexico-specific data based on the intercensal survey of 2015 by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography(INEGI).This calibration determines the estimation of conditions in the base year,the projection of the Business as Usual scenario,and factors such as emissions factors,fuel emission intensities,and costs.This general modeling approach was reviewed as part of the 2021 publication,and a list of reviewers can be found there.12 Our method provides a high-level comparison of different scenarios rather than a detailed bottom-up analysis.This results in a perspective thats relevant to the urban passenger transport sector broadly rather than focusing exclusively on a handful of particular policies.3.2.DEFINING SCENARIOSAfter setting the scope and calibrating the model,the next step is to quantitatively define the four scenarios for urban passenger transportation in Mexico that were described on page X.Beginning from a base year of 201513 and looking to future time points in 2030 and 2050,we describe possible futures.These scenarios are not intended to precisely define the only options for the future of the sector;rather,they are meant to give an idea of general trajectories that are possible for urban passenger transport.For electrification,our forecasting is expressed in terms of the percentage of new vehicles that are electric.The Business as Usual and Mode Shift scenarios share the same lower electrification rates;the Electrification and Electrification Mode Shift scenarios share the same higher electrification rates.There may be fewer new cars sold per year in the Mode Shift scenario,but the same percentage of those cars are electric.Similarly,modal splits and travel activities(defined in terms of person-kilometers traveled by different modes)are identical in the Business as Usual and Electrification scenarios,with higher levels of car use;these are also identical in the Mode Shift and Electrification Mode Shift scenarios,with lower levels of car use.After defining these scenarios,we will estimate their implications.For each scenario,based on the size of vehicle fleets and the amount of activity per vehicle,we estimate life cycle14 greenhouse gas emissions(Section 4),energy consumption(Section 5),and total quantities and costs of infrastructure,vehicles,fuel,and operation(Section 6).7 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs(2018),World Urbanization Prospects.8 The UN definition may differ from other definitions,such as INEGIs.9 International Transport Forum:OECD(2023),ITF Transport Outlook 2023.10 Lynn H Kaack,Environmental Research Letters(2018),Decarbonizing intraregional freight systems with a focus on modal shift.11 The Mobility Model is only available under a closed license,and the full dataset cannot be shared.However,all relevant variables for Mexico are included in the Methodological Appendix and may be reviewed there.12 ITDP&UC Davis(2021),The Compact City ScenarioElectrified.13 Selected for data availability and compatibility between sibling studies and to avoid distortions due to COVID-19.14 Including emissions not only from the production and consumption of fuel or electricity but also from the manufacture and disposal of vehicles and the construction and maintenance of infrastructure.133.2.1.SCENARIOS FOR ELECTRIFICATION RATESThe Business as Usual and Mode Shift scenarios follow the same projections for the percentage of new vehicles that are electric,broken down by year and vehicle typethe sales shares of vehicles.In these scenarios,our projections are meant to align with the countrys current trajectory.This projection takes into account current market trends,including total new sales for electric and hybrid vehicles,which in recent years have represented around 4.5%of sales.15 The Electrification and Electrification Mode Shift scenarios follow sales share projections that are consistent with the National Strategy for Electric Mobility and Mexicos Nationally Determined Contribution,16 aligned with the Glasgow Agreement at COP27.17 These also align with the targets modeled in a recent report by the Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico.18 FIGURE B.ELECTRIFICATION RATES BY VEHICLE TYPE,YEAR,AND SCENARIOPercentages of New Vehicle Sales that Are Electric(Rather than InternalCombustion)31Business as Usual and Mode Shift(Only)Electrification(Only)and Electrification Mode Shift201520302050201520302050LDVs(Cars and light trucks)0%P%0P0%2-Wheelers/motorcycles(not including e-bikes)0%P%0P0%buses0%P%0P0%3.2.2.SCENARIOS FOR MODE SHIFT RATESThe Business as Usual and Electrification scenarios start from base year(2015)modal splits calibrated to data from the intercensal survey of 2015 carried out by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography(INEGI).For future years,modal splits were projected forward from that baseline according to travel activity projections based on the industry-standard International Energy Agencys(IEA)Mobility Model numbers for Mexico.This includes future projections of travel breakdowns by mode.They can be seen in Figure E and Figure F.The Mode Shift and Electrification Mode Shift scenarios follow our own calculations,in two steps.First,we project possible future urban densities in Mexico under a maximum-feasible policy to promote compact,mixed-use cities.Second,we identify the maximum feasible replacement of car and motorcycle travel and substitution with walking,bicycling,public transportation,telecommuting,or shorter trips,including a factor to show how mode shift can be more easily achieved in compact communities.For more detail on this modeling process,see the methodological appendix.The first step of the calculation draws on data from the European Commissions Global Human Settlement Layer,19 identifying the current trends in urban density and then also projecting a compact cities scenario in which various policies come together to achieve the following effect:Cities in Mexico immediately stop sprawling,consuming no new undeveloped urban land.Rather,population growth is concentrated in areas that currently have less than 8,000 people per km2 to bring them to a population above that level.This threshold is arbitrary,but it reflects a general point at which it becomes feasible to serve urban areas with public transportation.The modeling approach is meant to generally represent a densification that could be achieved through zoning reform to permit by-right multifamily construction(without parking minimums)on all urban land.15 INEGI(2022).Registro administrativo de la industria automotriz de vehculos ligeros.16 Secretara de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales Press Release(November 8,2022),Mxico anunciar en la COP27 el incremento de sus ambiciones climticas.17 UK Government Policy Paper(2022),COP26 declaration on accelerating the transition to 100%zero emission cars and vans.18 Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico(2023),Ruta Emisiones Netas Cero para Mxico 2060,desde Sociedad Civil.19 GHSL-Global Human Settlement Layer.Available at ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/.14This densification is meant to represent the maximum land use reform that can be achieved without anyone having to leave or redevelop their current home.It will only provide new options:Densification will be promoted ideally in central neighborhoods and in places with access to mass transit networks.Currently,suburban areas are diverse and concentrate sprawling single-family homes and also informal settlements with high densities.Affordable housing near transit and in central neighborhoods needs to be promoted to offer alternatives for lower-income groups.In the Business as Usual projections,most population growth is in areas that are already dense,with more than 8,000 people per km2.However,there is some slight growth in more sprawling areas,such that about 25 million urban Mexicans will live in areas less dense than 8,000 ppl/km2 by 2050(up from about 20 million today).In the Mode Shift projections,that growth is redirected so that only about 14 million urban Mexicans will live in such sparse urban environments.Some of these low-density areas are wealthy suburbs,others are poorer peri-urban areas where low-income people may be“captive”riders of public transport.In either case,low-density areas are the places where people have the strongest incentive to purchase and use cars as soon as their income permits.URBAN POPULATION DENSITY GROUPINGS BY YEAR AND SCENARIO30,000,00020,000,00010,000,00002000 2030 High Shift2015 2030 BAU/HIGH EV500-1000 ppl/km21000-2000 ppl/km22000-4000 ppl/km24000-8000 ppl/km240,000,00050,000,0002050 High Shift2030 BAU/HIGH EV8000-16000 ppl/km2 1600ppl/km2Figure C.Urban density groupings15In the second step,after estimating future densities,we used the projected potential urban densities to identify the maximum feasible reductions in car and motorcycle travel as a function of those densities.In more compact communities,it will be easier to replace car travel with travel by other modes.We estimate that it will be possible to prevent growth in car and motorcycle travel,holding them nearly constant(as measured by total person-km traveled)through 2050.Overall travel demand will continue to grow rapidly,but the increase in travel will be directed to other modes rather than cars and motorcycles.The specific redistribution of this travel to other modes was based on the same pattern used in other Compact Cities Electrified country-level reports,and it was approved by the Mexico-specialist reviewers listed on page X.More detail can be found in the methodological appendix.The results of this calculation are a modal shift relative to Business as Usual,shown in Figure E and Figure F below.Figure E.Travel activity2030.0020.0010.0020152030 Business As Usual&Electrification(Only)2030 Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification Mode Shift 2050 Business As Usual&Electrification(Only)CarBusRailMODAL SPLITS BY SCENARIO AND YEAR40.002050 Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification Mode Shift2-WheelerBicycle/e-bikeWalkingAVERAGE PERSON-KM TRAVELED PER PERSON PER DAY16Modal Splits by Scenario and Year(by person-km traveled,rather than by trip;independent of overall travel activity,which grows over time)2015 Base Year2030 Business as Usual&Electrification(Only)2030 Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification Shift2050 Business as Usual&Electrification(Only)2050 Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification ShiftCar47HBU%Bus3959E%Rail4%6%7%5%7%2-Wheeler4%4%4%6%3%Bicycle/e-bike2%2%4%3%Walking4%4%5%3%7%These scenarios will require substantially different investments in infrastructure(kilometers of railway,busway,road,and bicycle lanes)and in vehicle fleets,and estimates of these are shown in Section 7.3.It is important to note that the numbers shown in Figure F reflect the percentage of person-km traveled by each mode,not the percentage of trips.The percentage of trips by car is in fact much lower in all scenarios and years(INEGI,the source of our data,indicates about 24%of trips were by car in 2015,considering a weighted average of trips to school and work in the largest metropolitan areas).But because car trips tend to be much longer than trips by public transport or by walking or cycling,the proportion of passenger-km is very different.In summary,the 2050 Mode Shift is an ambitious scenario.We believe that it will be feasible for Mexico to prevent an increase in person-km traveled by car,but it will require significant investment in public transport and sustainable mobility modes,as well as a diverse range of policy considerations(included in Appendix A).20 Data used for Business as Usual adapted from INEGI(2015).Figure F.Mode splits by percent of travel174.SCENARIO COMPATIBILITY WITH MEXICO CLIMATE COMMITMENTSMexicos commitments to greenhouse gas reductions are ambitious.Our modeling shows that the countrys decarbonization goals in the urban passenger transport sector cannot be met with Electrification or with Mode Shift alonethey require both strategies in concert.4.1.MEXICO CLIMATE TARGETSIn 2022,Mexico enhanced its climate mitigation goals,targeting a 35%reduction in greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions by 2030significantly higher than the previous 22%reduction proposed in 2020.If external support is secured,Mexico has pledged to surpass that goal and reach a more ambitious 40%GHG reduction by 2030.21Across all economic sectors,35 measures have been identified and categorized into three groups:Natural solutions,low-carbon transportation,and industrial regulation and promotion.These measures are anticipated to yield an estimated total annual mitigation of 88.9 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent(Mt CO2eq)by 2030.In the transportation sector,aligned with commitments from COP26 in Glasgow to end the sale of new ICE vehicles by 2040,Mexico is intensifying efforts in collaboration with the private sector and cities nationwide,particularly focusing on advancing electric vehicles.The Mexican government has not established an official net zero emissions policy or target.However,there have been efforts for establishing a Net Zero Emissions Pathway for Mexico 2060 from Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico(Mexico Climate Initiative).22 This pathway proposes a viable scenario to reach net zero emissions,considering 2060 as the shortest possible time for achieving this goal.This pathway has important considerations regarding electric power,as it states that to achieve net zero,from 2027 onward,no new electricity-generation plants that use fossil fuels should be installed.Electricity must also be decarbonized to a level that achieves an 88%clean and renewable energygeneration matrix.In terms of the transport sector,it establishes that by 2060,electric vehicles should represent 92%of the national fleet.Furthermore,the promotion of nonmotorized mobility and improvements in the design and planning of cities are also considered key measures in reaching net zero emissions by 2060.4.2.SCENARIO IMPACTS ON TRANSPORT EMISSIONS21 UNDP,Mexico.Available at https:/climatepromise.undp.org/what-we-do/where-we-work/mexico.22 Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico(2023),Ruta Emisiones Netas Cero para Mxico 2060,desde Sociedad Civil.Figure G.Greenhouse gas emissions by scenarioCumulative Lifecycle GHG(Mt CO2-EQ)CUMULATIVE URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONSASSUMING MAXIMUM GRID DECARBONIZATION RATE2,5001,50050020202025203020352040204520500Threshold for warming below 1.5CMode Shift(Only)Electrification ShiftElectrification(Only)Business as UsualBAUSum:2,200 Mt CO2EQShift(Only)Sum:1,800 Mt CO2EQLow estimate of limit:2,200 Mt CO2EQEV SHIFTSum:1,600 Mt CO2EQ18Although the Electrification and the Mode Shift scenarios would each considerably reduce GHG emissions,only the combined Electrification Mode Shift scenario even comes close to keeping cumulative urban passenger transport emissions within a level potentially compatible with limiting climate change to 1.5C in this century.This is shown by the area under the blue threshold curve23 in Figure G,above.24 To reflect uncertainty in calculations of the carbon budget,we have included“high”and“low”estimates of the threshold that must not be exceeded to potentially stay within 1.5C(assuming equivalent decarbonization in every sector and country).Even the most optimistic Electrification Shift scenario only barely comes within that margin of error.Not only is Electrification Mode Shift the only scenario that approaches holding global warming within Paris Agreement goals,it is the only scenario that approaches the possibility of achieving net zero by 2060,a goal explored by the Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico.25 Mode Shift and Electrification Mode Shift are also the only scenarios that even approach Mexicos NDC goal of a 35%reduction in GHG emissions by 2030.Figure H shows that Electrification Mode Shift offers an 18%reduction in emissions relative to 2015,or a 12%reduction relative to 2030 Business as Usual,with all other scenarios offering less dramatic improvements.It may not be realistic to expect more extensive decarbonization than this in the urban passenger transport sector;perhaps additional decarbonization may come from other sectors of the Mexican economy.Figure I shows that emissions reductions in all scenarios are much more extensive in 2050.23 Carbon budgets are allocated by the ratio of the USs cumulative emissions in the Business as Usual scenario to worldwide emissions in the Business as Usual scenario.For more detail,see the Methodological Appendix.24 Note:Our analysis shows that the Electrification Mode Shift scenario will exceed the 1.5 Cthreshold by nearly 1Gt,a shortfall that will need compensation from decarbonization of other sectors of the American economy.25 Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico(2023).Available at https:/www.iniciativaclimatica.org/emisionesnetascero/.Figure H.Annual GHG emissions by scenario and source,as of 2015 and 20307550250MILLIONS OF TONNES OF CO2-EQ GHG PER YEAR2015 Base Year2030 Business As Usual2030 Electrification(Only)2030 Mode Shift(Only)Fuel/ElectricityInfrastructureVehicle ManufactureANNUAL URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONS IN 2015 AND 2030ASSUMING MAXIMUM GRID DECARBONIZATION RATE1002030 Electrification Mode Shift19With a decarbonized grid,electric vehicles will cause very low emissions through their operation.However,the use of cars,electric or not,will still lead to substantial GHG emissions from the production of steel,batteries,and other industrial processes,such as lithium used in batteries involved in vehicle manufacture and disposal.Under the Electrification scenarios,as can be seen in Figure I,more than half of emissions are from these sources,which are much more challenging to decarbonize.Indeed,electrification actually increases manufacturing emissions by about 18 percent relative to Business as Usual because of the emissions intensity of battery manufacture and of heavier vehicles.26 For Mexico to reach net zero by 2060,all emissions must be minimizedand that can only be accomplished by combining electrification with compact development and modal shift that limits private vehicle use and boosts an already positive usage of public transportation.Electrification alone also requires exponential growth in the use of scarce critical minerals for batteries.The environmental,environmental justice,and national security challenges entailed by that would be significantly mitigated by combining Electrification with Mode Shift and reducing overall dependence on passenger vehicles while electrifying.274.3.MODE SHIFT REDUCES DEPENDENCE ON GRID DECARBONIZATIONMode Shift provides a hedge against obstacles that may arise in decarbonizing the electrical grid.By combining Mode Shift and Electrification,Mexico may still achieve substantial decarbonization even if the shift to electric vehicles and/or renewable electricity generation is slower than optimistically projected.Mexicos electricity grid currently has an emissions intensity of roughly 215g CO2eq per kWh.The results displayed in the previous section have assumed a highly ambitious level of grid decarbonization in line with the International Energy Agencys(IEA)Sustainable Development Scenario.Following this assumption,the grid emissions intensity falls to nearly 0g CO2eq/kWh by 2050.26 This 25 percent figure is conservative,based on the assumption of rapid decarbonization of the manufacturing sector by 2050.Eighty percent is a reasonable estimate today:See Andrew Moseman&Sergey Paltsev,MIT Climate Portal(2022),Are electric vehicles definitely better for the climate than gas-powered cars?27 Center on Global Energy Policy(2023),Q&A:Critical minerals demand growth in the net-zero scenario.Figure I.Annual GHG emissions by scenario and source,as of 20506040200MILLIONS OF TONNES OF CO2-EQ GHG PER YEARBusiness as UsualElectrification(Only)Mode Shift(Only)Electrification ShiftFuel/ElectricityInfrastructureVehicle ManufactureANNUAL URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONS IN 2050ASSUMING MAXIMUM GRID DECARBONIZATION RATE8020However,current policies(as per IEAs Stated Policies Scenario)are only projected to reach a grid intensity of about 80g CO2eq/kWh by 2050,compared to 215 today.This is still an optimistic forecast,but in this case,our Electrification scenario loses some of its effectiveness in reducing cumulative emissions,while Mode Shift loses less,as shown in Figure J below.In this case,none of the scenarios is conclusively within the blue area signifying potential compatibility with the 1.5C threshold,but Electrification Mode Shift is barely on the line.The more conservative grid decarbonization projections also shed light on Mexicos prospects for reaching the goal of net zero by 2060,as seen in Figure K.If grid decarbonization proceeds in line with current stated policies,it will be very difficult if not impossible for Mexico to achieve that goal without both Electrification and Mode Shift,and even in the combined scenario,an extensive carbon-recapture effort,beyond the possibilities of known technology,will be necessary.Figure J.GHG emissions by scenario,assuming slower grid decarbonization than in Figure GCumulative Lifecycle GHG(Mt CO2-EQ)CUMULATIVE URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONSASSUMING MAXIMUM GRID DECARBONIZATION RATE2,5001,5005001,0002,00020202025203020352040204520500Threshold for warming below 1.5CMode Shift(Only)Electrification ShiftElectrification(Only)Business as UsualBAUSum:2,200 Mt CO2EQShift(Only)Sum:1,900 Mt CO2EQEV(Only)Sum:1,900 Mt CO2EQHigh estimate oflimit:1,700 Mt CO2EQLow estimate of limit:2,200 Mt CO2EQEV SHIFTSum:1,700 Mt CO2EQ21150100500MILLIONS OF TONNES OF CO2-EG GHG PER YEARBusiness as Usual(moderate grid decarbonization)Business as Usual(maximum grid decarbonization)Electrification(moderate grid decarbonization)Electrification (maximum grid decarbonization)Fuel/ElectricityInfrastructureVehicle ManufactureANNUAL URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONS AS OF 2050Mode Shift(moderate grid decarbonization)Mode Shift(maximum grid decarbonization)Electrification(moderate grid decarbonization)Electrification(maximum grid decarbonization)Figure K.Annual greenhouse gas emissions by scenario,source,and contingency22Figure L.Annual energy consumption 200250100500BILLION KILOWATT-HOURS2015 Business as Usual2030 Business as Usual2030 Electrification(Only)2030 Mode Shift(Only)2030 Electrification ShiftEnergy from liquid fuelsEnergy from electricityENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE,SCENARIO,AND YEAR2050 Business As Usual2050 Mode Shift(Only)2050 Electrification Shift2050 Electrification(Only)5.SCENARIO IMPACTS ON ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTIONMode Shift not only provides a degree of redundancy with Electrification,it also reduces the burden of rapid grid decarbonization by dramatically reducing the increased electricity demand that vehicle electrification will cause.Furthermore,Mode Shift increases resiliency at all levels by providing redundancy in transportation options.The Electrification(Only)scenario represents a major reduction in total energy consumption relative to Business as Usual,because electric vehicles are much more efficient per mile than internal-combustion vehicles.This massive reduction in total energy consumption and the use of liquid fuels is accompanied by a smaller increase in the use of electricity,seen in Figure L.In the Electrification scenario,urban passenger transport in Mexico will consume about 90,000 million kWh of electricity annually by 2050.Electrification Mode Shift reduces this consumption by about 32 percent(29,000 million kWh),or the equivalent of the annual power generation of about 6,000 wind turbines.Considering that Mexicos overall electricity consumption in 2022 was about 350,000 million kWh,this represents a savings equivalent to about 9%of the nations entire electricity consumption.That might mean a reduction in the costs of building infrastructure for renewable power generation or freeing up electricity for other urgent needs in the face of the climate crisis,along with energy security,reduced dependence on fossil fuels,and other health benefits.236.DIRECT PUBLIC AND PRIVATE EXPENSES IN EACH SCENARIO The Mode Shift and Electrification Mode Shift scenarios offer efficiencies that could save about MXN$24,000,000 million for Mexicos economy overall,including savings to the public and private sectors.The structure of a transportation system has many impacts on a nations economy,direct and indirect.Our model tabulates only the direct impactsthe expenses of manufacturing,maintaining,fueling,and operating vehicles and the expenses of building and maintaining infrastructure.These are shown in Figure M.These expenses can be divided into those borne ultimately by the public sector and by individuals.28 Mode Shift would lead to enormous economic savings for the Mexican economya cumulative savings of about$24,000,000 million MXN.Of this,about$4,000,000 million MXN in savings would accrue to national,state,and local governments,tabulated in Figure O in Section 7,below.Our calculations only include the direct costs of urban passenger transport and not indirect costs such as healthcare expenses related to vehicle collisions or sedentary lifestyles;costs related to air,noise,or water pollution;costs of farmland or natural areas lost to suburban sprawl;or,conversely,the economic benefits derived from job creation.29 All of these indirect costs are likely to mean that the true economic benefit of Electrification Mode Shift would be many times higher than we have calculated.28 For the sake of conservatism,in these calculations we have assumed that the government will bear the entire cost of public transport operationsthat is,fares will be free.We do expect that public transport subsidies will increase in the Mode Shift scenarios,though possibly not to this extreme.29 Investments in public transit create nearly twice as many jobs per dollar as investments in new road-building.See:Transportation for America(2021),Road and public transit maintenance create more jobs than building new highways.Figure M.Cumulative direct costs of urban passenger transport125,00075,00025,0000BILLIONS OF 2023 MXNBusiness as UsualMode Shift(Only)Electrification ShiftCumulative Private CostCumulative Public CostCUMULATIVE DIRECT PUBLIC PRIVATE COSTS OF URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT 2015-2050,BY SCENARIOElectrification (Only)247.MEASURABLE GOALS FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORTATIONIt is possible for Mexico to achieve the Electrification Mode Shift scenario.This scenario offers enormous savings to the public sector as well as private individuals and enterprises,while also reducing emissions from urban passenger transportation to the level most closely consistent with the countrys climate commitments.It will not require any additional funding beyond the resources that Mexico already expends for urban passenger transportationrather,Electrification Mode Shift will only require a change in policies and a reallocation of resources.Instead of spending 43,000,000 million pesos building new highways,Mexico can spend 39,000,000 million pesos on electrification,BRT,bicycle lanes,new buses,and metroand serve the public even more effectively.Three elements must come together to achieve the Electrification Mode Shift scenario:first,increased vehicle efficiency,primarily through electrification;second,land-use reform to make trips shorter by promoting compact mixed-use neighborhoods in existing cities;third,facilitating Mode Shift,primarily by providing alternative infrastructure but also by pricing car travel according to its true cost,especially through parking regulation(such as Mexico Citys 2017 off-street parking reform30).All of these changes require high political will.In this section we provide evidence-based goals for each of these three elements based on the quantitative analysis in this study.If achieved,these goals would bring the benefits of the Electrification Mode Shift scenario.These goals could be accomplished in many ways,and in Appendix A,we provide basic policy agendas at the federal,state,and local levels that could help Mexico reach them.7.1.GOALS FOR ELECTRIFICATIONTo achieve the countrys climate commitments,electrification must proceed much more rapidly than its current course allows.As discussed in Section 3.2.1,new sales of different vehicle types must be electrified at the rates shown in bold in Figure N,below.Most importantly,50 percent of all new light-duty vehicle sales(cars and light trucks)must be electric by 2030,and 100 percent by or before 2050.Percentages of New Vehicles that Are Electric(Rather than internal-Combustion)Business as Usual and Mode Shift(Only)Electrification(Only)and Electrification Mode Shift201520302050201520302050LDVs(Cars and light trucks)0%P%0P0%2-Wheelers/motorcycles(not including e-bijes)0%P%0P0%Buses4%P%4P00 ITDP(2020),Ms Ciudad,Menos CajonesEvaluacin de impacto del cambio a los requerimientos de estacionamiento en la Ciudad de Mxico y recomendaciones de poltica pblica.Figure N.Sales of electric vehicles by year and scenario257.2.GOALS FOR LAND USEMore compact,mixed-use urban form will have a twofold benefit for the cities of Mexico.First,when people live closer to their places of work or leisure,trips will be shorter,and so even ICE cars will emit less and cost motorists less.This will require large policy shifts to promote new affordable housing in central areas,detailed in Annex B.Second,when trips are shorter,they are easier to take by bicycle or public transport,facilitating Mode Shift.Achieving the Electrification Mode Shift scenario and meeting the countrys climate commitments will require Mexico to adopt policies that make it possible for cities to become more compact.As described in Section 7.2 below,these policies will not require anyone to live in a dense neighborhood who does not wish to.Reaching the Electrification Mode Shift scenario will require policies that put the country on track for the population density distribution described in Section 3.2.2,preventing any further creation of new neighborhoods below a density of 8,000 people per km2.7.3.GOALS FOR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTUREThis analysis provides the clearest agenda for the third of the three components necessary to achieve the Electrification Mode Shift scenario:the specific transportation infrastructure investments that will be needed to achieve such levels of Mode Shift and the estimated savings that are possible by pursuing such a strategy.Figure O,below,indicates the extent of infrastructure and vehicle investment that Mexico must make to achieve the Electrification Mode Shift scenario.As shown in Figure N,the Shift element of the scenario will mean that federal,state,and local governments will save about$4,000,000 million MXN by 2050.The expense of building and operating transit will be more than balanced by the reduced need to build and maintain highways.Total New Infrastructure and Vehicles Required Through 2030Road,two-way kmBRT,two-way kmRailway,two-way kmPhysically protected bicycle lanes,two-way kmBuses(total urban buses and minibuses)Train carsTotal cost to governments(lakh crore 2023 INR)Business as Usual&Electrification(Only)110,0001005501,000630,0007,500149Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification Shift71,0002,20070019,000660,0008,500141Total New Infrastructure and Vehicles Required Through 2050Road,two-way kmBRT,two-way kmRailway,two-way kmPhysically protected bicycle lanes,two-way kmBuses(total urban buses and minibuses)Train carsTotal cost to governments(lakh crore 2023 INR)Business as Usual&Electrification(Only)460,0003509002,5001,600,00020,000573Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification Shift120,00012,0001,80039,0002,000,00028,000423Note that the number for buses includes minibuses and also replacements to vehicles that are decommissioned,with an expected vehicle lifespan of about 12 years.We do not include cable cars,because they carry such a small fraction of Mexicos urban population.Figure O.Detailed description of infrastructure and investment requirements by scenario26This analysis provides a clear road map for transportation infrastructure investments in cities across Mexico.It makes a few points clear:The most important investments will be in bicycle lanes and BRT infrastructureMexico will need to build about 2,000km of bidirectional BRT(4,300 lane-km)by 2050,which is a BRT line on most urban highways.Bicycle lanes must be built even more broadly,on most urban arterials and primary streets,so that all residents of Mexican cities will live within a block or two of a protected bicycle lane.This investment in BRT and bicycle lanes,although large,is much less expensive than investment in roadways or metro.By building BRT and bicycle lanes,along with a relatively moderate expansion of metro systems,Mexicos federal,state,and local governments can reduce expenses for highways and save an enormous amount of money over the coming decades.This investment does not replace rail systems and will need to be complementary.Road expansion must be severely limited.Only about 25,000 more lane-km of urban roadways can be built,after which road construction and widenings must be stopped altogether in favor of more efficient usage of the existing roadways.Mexican cities have sprawled enough.This scale of transformation,while massive,is not unprecedented.Paris decreased car travel by almost 50 percent in 30 years by investing in other modes and traffic-control strategies.Jakarta and Bogot have each built a mass transit system with more than a million riders a day in less than 15 years.Theres no reason why Mexican cities cant do the same.27APPENDIX A:BASIC POLICY AGENDAAchieving the goals established in Section 7 of this report will require coordinated action at the federal,state,and municipal levels of government in Mexico.Here are a series of policy recommendations to advance on these three fronts:vehicle electrification,planning of compact cities,and modal shift in travel in the medium term.Actions related to the responsibilities of the three levels of government are included,reflecting that the federal government must generate the framework and instruments to promote solutions implemented by states and municipalities.ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORTATION THROUGH POLICIES AND INCENTIVESFEDERAL LEVEL1.Guide electromobility policy by setting ambitious national targets around public transportation electrification;complete the final publication of the National Strategy for Electric Mobility with the targets set in the 2023 anteproyecto.2.Implement federal financial incentives for purchasing EVs.Such incentives can combine increased cost for internal combustion vehicles with a subsidy for EVs to decrease the relative cost of EVs.Other incentives may include tax reductions and subsidies for infrastructure fees such as tolls.3.Incentivize and favor the electrification of public transport fleets and light electric vehicles through criteria for accessing new or existing financing programs or federal funds.4.Design a federal chatarrizacin program to accelerate the switch from internal combustion vehicles to EVs(for both private and public transport).5.Standardize procurement schemes for suppliers and requirements for electric public transportation fleets and charging infrastructure for different cities so that a joint public tender is possible,thus achieving economies of scale and reducing acquisition and maintenance costs.6.Invest in a clean electricity supply chain to satisfy increased demand caused by transport electrification.It is important to develop the renewable-energy sector(wind and solar power)and to progressively stop investing in coal and oil power generation.It is also important to review and gradually reduce or eliminate fiscal incentives to fossil fuels consumers and producers.7.Ensure that there is a clean energy supply in each stage of the supply chain of EV(mineral use,battery sourcing,and assembly).8.Reduce the costs of EV in Mexico by developing the EV industry in Mexico,building on the existing internal combustion vehicles industry,or reducing tariffs on imported EV and batteries.9.Invest in research,education,and training to create a skilled workforce and build capacities in the public and private sectors to manage and lead transport electrification.10.Draft and establish standards and protocols for safety and maintenance of public transportation EVs.11.Promote the development of a national network of EV charging infrastructure in an equitable way,ensuring that the availability and strategic location of charging stations considers vulnerable populations.B.STATE LEVEL1.Drive electrification by enabling electromobility policies and setting ambitious targets for public transportation electrification in mobility and public transportation plans and programs at the state level.These plans and programs must encompass road maps for the implementation of electric public transport,strategies for financial backup,and financial incentives for the purchase of EVs.2.Promote the launch of pilot projects of electromobility in specific routes and transit corridors,managed by structured transport organizations.This is particularly relevant for BRT lines,as BRT is projected to be one of the main new public transportation infrastructure expansions by 2050.This includes organizations such as Metrobus in Mexico City and Metrorrey in Monterrey.3.Design state-level chatarrizacin programs aiming at accelerating the switch from internal combustion vehicles to EVs(for both private and public transport).4.Include the purchase of EV in new tenders to incentivize public transport operators to renovate their fleet.Subsequently adapt the concession contracts duration to consider the higher investment that the purchase of EVs generates.285.Implement a subsidy scheme for electric vehicles,especially for the logistics industry,to accelerate the shift from vehicles with greater environmental and road safety impacts.6.Promote the development of state-level networks of EV charging infrastructure in an equitable way,ensuring the availability and strategic location of electrical charging stations.C.MUNICIPAL LEVEL1.Draft local plans and strategies to push for the development of the grid and charging infrastructure based on land availability and demand analysis.Include charging infrastructure standards and targets in municipal urban development plans,integral mobility plans,and construction regulation(Reglamentos de Construccin),with a focus on street and parking spaces located close to housing and office buildings.2.Adopt schemes to incentivize the use of EVs,such as“green plates”that allow drivers to use parking spaces reserved for electric and hybrid vehicles.REFORMS TO LAND-USE POLICIES,ZONING,MIXED-USE,AND TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENTA.FEDERAL LEVEL1.Promote a federal-level housing policy that prioritizes the development of affordable housing in dense areas that are already connected to the public transit network.Federal institutions,such as the Institute of the National Housing Fund for Workers(INFONAVIT),that are able to finance housing development projects are key.The INFONAVIT already has accessibility criteria for funding housing projects,which enables it to prioritize projects that have access to health,education,employment,recreation and provision of basic goods.This needs to be replicated for other actors that finance housing projects.B.STATE LEVEL1.Promote programs,incentives,and instruments at the state level that allow municipalities to approve affordable housing projects,giving priority to areas with good connectivity to public transportation and high accessibility to health,education,employment,recreation facilities and provision of basic goods.2.Promote higher residential densities and mixed uses in state-level planning to guide the updating of municipal-level plans and programs that establish zoning and densities at the block level.C.MUNICIPAL LEVEL1.Promote reforms to municipal urban development instruments and construction regulations to eliminate minimum parking requirements and transition to a maximum parking levels model that restricts parking construction and limits trips in private motorized vehicles.Maximum limits need to be aligned to local conditions,considering other factors such as proximity to public transport and accessibility to health,education,employment,recreation facilities and provision of basic goods.This also involves the management of off-street parking supply,especially in high-density urban areas where land is being underutilized to the detriment of housing and businesses.2.Create infrastructure standards that require vehicle charging in parking spaces in new constructions,considering the federal level specifications for charging infrastructure,the NOM-001-SEDE,relevant for electrical installations,in municipal regulations and construction regulations.3.Include minimum requirements for bicycle parking spaces in urban development instruments and construction regulations to promote trips in sustainable mobility modes.4.Promote mixed uses in municipal zoning regulations that create new spaces for health and education facilities,employment,provision of basic goods,and recreational activities in areas with good connectivity to public transport and that allow for shorter trips.5.Update regulations to promote higher residential densities that consider local conditions and limitations.This includes reviewing residential density limitations,currently established in urban development plansfor example,the Norma General de Ordenacin 11 for Mexico Cityparticularly for areas that have good accessibility to key facilities.29SUPPORT MODE SHIFT BY OPTIMIZING THE USE OF ROAD SPACE WITH WALKING,CYCLING,AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTFEDERAL LEVEL1.Integrate the principles and policies of the General Law of Mobility and Road Safety in investment programs,such as the Programa Federal de Apoyo al Transporte Masivo(PROTRAM),and in infrastructure projects to shift public spending toward integrated public transportation projects with energy efficiency criteria and infrastructure,in accordance with the inverted pyramid of sustainable mobility.312.Strictly follow up on the implementation of the National Strategy for Mobility and Road Safety(ENAMOV)to generate safe transportation in sustainable mobility modes.323.Update and/or develop official standards(NOM)and manuals related to road infrastructure,public space,equipment,and pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure to comply with the General Law on Mobility and Road Safety(ENAMOV).4.Develop a National Public Transportation Policy,designing technical and financial support mechanisms for the implementation of integrated transportation systems.5.Develop federal investment programs specific to the development of active mobility such as infrastructure,cycling equipment,and public bike-sharing systems.6.Build technical capacities in the federal civil service for implementing the aforementioned measures.STATE LEVEL1.Align state regulations with the General Law on Mobility and Road Safety.332.Revise the distribution of resources allocated to actions,programs,and infrastructure projects related to mobility and road safety so they are aligned with Article 60 of the General Law on Mobility and Road Safety“Prioritization of actions and resources.”Limit as much as possible investments aimed at increasing the level of road service for individual motor vehicles.343.Revise the criteria under which road infrastructure projects are assessed to consider the distribution of space according to the inverted pyramid of sustainable mobility,as well as the impacts of transportation on air and noise pollution,greenhouse gas emissions,and road safety,and not only travel times and/or level of service.4.Strengthen the collection of vehicle ownership taxes based on environmental parameters and explore other tax mechanisms focused on ownership,such as feebates on vehicle purchases based on energy efficiency.355.Promote regulatory changes that support congestion charge strategies based on mobility studies and implemented especially in areas which attract a high level of trips with a diversified offer of transportation services.366.Streamline the approval and authorization processes for sustainable mobility projects.Align citizen participation mechanisms to the scales of the issues addressed,so that a community has the power to influence but not veto projects that improve sustainable mobility and road safety at the city level.7.Organize public transportation services to transform the model of individual concessions to integrated transportation systems,promoting the physical,operational,informational,image,and fare integration of public transportation.8.Invest in the redesign of bus networks with the objective of increasing frequency,adding coverage and universal accessibility,observing the lines of action of Axis 2,“Public Transportation Services for People,”of the National Strategy for Mobility and Road Safety(ENAMOV).379.Implement BRT corridors on primary roads,observing the criteria of the BRT Standard(ITDP,2016).3810.Develop public bike-sharing systems in the main urban areas of the state,integrated with public transportation to support last-mile trips.11.In coordination with municipal authorities,develop car-free-street initiatives in the main urban areas of the state to promote sustainable mobility.12.Build technical capacities in the state civil service for implementing the aforementioned measures.31 Cmara de Diputados(2023),Ley General de Movilidad y Seguridad Vial.32 SEDATU(2023),Estrategia Nacional de Movilidad y Seguridad Vial 2023-2042.33 Cmara de Diputados(2023),Ley General de Movilidad y Seguridad Vial.34 Cmara de Diputados(2023),Ley General de Movilidad y Seguridad Vial.35 ITDP(2012),Gua de estrategias para la reduccin del uso del auto en ciudades mexicanas.36 ITDP(2012),Gua de estrategias para la reduccin del uso del auto en ciudades mexicanas.37 SEDATU(2023),Estrategia Nacional de Movilidad y Seguridad Vial 2023-2042.38 ITDP(2016),The BRT Standard.30LOCAL LEVEL1.Reform municipal legal frameworks to enable municipal governments to implement low emission zones(LEZ),as was done by the municipality of Guadalajara with the reform of the Bylaws for Integral Urban Management.39 2.Use the guidelines of the Manual de Calles(SEDATU,2018)regarding street design and demand-management strategies for the design of traffic calming interventions,intersections,pedestrian trajectories,vehicle circulation,and parking management.40 Road design should reflect the inverted mobility pyramid,favoring pedestrian and active mobility trips as a priority.3.Promote the implementation of networked cycling infrastructure,observing criteria of safety,continuity,coherence,comfort,attractiveness,and adaptability,as set out in the Manual de Calles(SEDATU,2018).414.Allocate resources for the development of cycling equipment to meet the objectives of Axis 3 of ENAMOV),42 including but not limited to installation of bicycle parking racks and retrofitting of public transportation units,stations,stops,and their surrounding areas.5.Implement necessary mechanisms(e.g.,parking meters)so private motor vehicle users are charged for parking at a sum close to the social cost,43 especially in areas that are in high demand and are covered by public transport services.To the extent possible,this revenue should be directed to finance sustainable mobility projects.6.Build technical capacities in the municipal civil service for implementing the aforementioned measures.39 Gobierno de Guadalajara(2024),Reforma al reglamento para la Gestin Integral del Municipio de Guadalajara.40 SEDATU(2019),Manual de calles.Diseo vial para ciudades mexicanas.41 SEDATU(2019),Manual de calles.Diseo vial para ciudades mexicanas.42 SEDATU(2023),Estrategia Nacional de Movilidad y Seguridad Vial 2023-2042.43 ITDP(2021),Taming Traffic.31APPENDIX B:IMAGINING COMPACT CITIES ELECTRIFIED IN MEXICOMexicos current context presents several challenges:Increasing private vehicle ownership,investment in car-oriented infrastructure,and urban sprawl through low-income housing all present obstacles to modal shift and electrification.On the other hand,the latest draft of the National Strategy for Electrical Mobility,which is aligned with the Glasgow climate pact and aims for 100%electric new vehicle sales by 2050,brings an opportunity to promote rapid electrification.Market trends in vehicle sales are also promising for the future of electrificationin 2022,4.7%of total new sales for light vehicles were either electric or hybrid.44Section 2.1 of this report has presented a qualitative exploration of the studys four scenarios;Section 3.2 defined them quantitatively.Appendix A provided a policy agenda for the federal,state,and local levels to help achieve this future.Here,Appendix B will present a narrative of what the Electrification Mode Shift future might look like in Mexico,taking the city of Monterrey as an example.The metropolitan area of Monterrey,in the state of Nuevo Len,is the third-largest metropolitan area in Mexico.Historically,it is one of the most car-oriented cities in the country,with around 40%of trips to work made in a private vehicle(the total is only 20%in the metropolitan area of Mexico City).Furthermore,in the last 30 years,the urban area has increased 2.8 times,from 363km2 to 1,029km2.At the same time,population density has decreased from approximately 7,000 to 5,000 people per square kilometer.45.In public transportation,Monterrey has recently finished construction of three metro lines,with three more in the planning and implementation phase.However,ridership has been affected by the pandemicin 2022,it was 24%lower than in 2019,the last year before the pandemic began.46.In terms of electrification,even though the share of electric vehicles remains less than 5%,the state of Nuevo Len has seen a total increase of 10%for electric and hybrid vehicle sales yearly since 2020.47.This signals an opportunity to increase private vehicle electrification if policies such as subsidies and tax incentives are applied.In terms of charging points,the state of Nuevo Len has a share of around 10%of the total electric-vehicle charging points in the country.Next steps for the metropolitan area of Monterrey are continuing with the trends of vehicle electrification and charging infrastructurewith further incentives for the private sector that accelerates these trendsas well as investing heavily in mass transport,including new metro and BRT lines.A key component of this plan is to promote the integration of the new rail and BRT infrastructure with its immediate environment through transit-oriented development(TOD)to permit multifamily housing with the option of building less parking through the elimination of parking minimums.This also means increasing connectivity of sustainable mobility modes of travel to and from stations to promote multimodality and sustainable ridership of the new rail and BRT infrastructure.This would ensure a modal shift of travel patterns in the medium to long term.Housing affordability is another key component,which can be achieved through instruments such as selling development rights or inclusionary housing.48Investment in large-scale expansion of the bus fleet,which includes electric buses,must be carried out to create citywide grids of high-frequency bus service.To achieve this,there must be country-wide access to federal funding programs or grants promoting and supporting the adoption of integrated public transportation systems that also consider replacing low-capacity,polluting fleets.Road space must be reallocated to prioritize bus and BRT circulation in main arterial roads that connect municipalities in Monterrey.A protected cycle network on main roads is also needed,along with wide sidewalks and safe,marked crosswalks suitable for universal accessibility on all streets,promoting increased road safety.Important progress for this has recently been made in Monterrey at a municipal level.For example,in 2022,the municipality of San Pedro Garza Garca eliminated parking requirements,and the municipal urban development plan for Monterrey is currently being updated and promotes the integration of mass transit stations with key destinations through green corridors,as well as higher densities and mixed uses around Metrorrey stations.The green corridors program is another initiative that shows progress toward a modal shiftit is intended to connect services in the city through green infrastructure that promotes sustainable mobility.By 2050,after implementing these policies in the different municipalities in Monterrey,more 44 Asociacin Mexicana de la Industria Automotriz(2022),Transicin a la electromovilidad en Mxico.45 Sistema de informacin urbano metropolitano(2020),Expansin Urbana Monterrey.46 Tovar,R.,El Horizonte(November 28,2022),Usan el metro menos personas que en 2019.47 Instituto Mexicano del Transporte(2022),Situacin de la electromovilidad en Mxico.48 For more examples,see:ITDP Mxico(2017),Hacia una estrategia de vivienda asequible orientada al transporte.32families in the metropolitan area might live in central areas as opposed to the suburbs,or in areas that are well connected through Metrorrey to employment and the different goods and services they require.Different typologies of housing have been built along Metrorrey corridors,allowing families of all income ranges to live in more compact environments,reversing the trend of decreased density in the metropolitan area of Monterrey.With more housing and transportation options,all families will have the option to save money by forgoing the cost of buying a car.In most neighborhoods,families will be able to take short,comfortable,and safe walks or bike rides to their local parks,stores,pharmacies,and schools.If they require longer commutes,they will be able to take an electric BRT or electric bus to get to their workplace,and be able to reach this infrastructure by walking or cycling comfortably,avoid driving and spending hours in traffic.More residents in Monterrey will be able to live without needing to buy a car,and others will be able to access electric or hybrid personal vehiclesthey have become as affordable as diesel ones and are more convenient to drive,since charging infrastructure and policies such as green plates are available and in effect.Despite having less dedicated road space for cars and more lanes dedicated to BRT or other electric buses,reduced demand will mean traffic will not dramatically increase.Many of these changes seem challenging,especially for a city such as Monterrey,which has emphasized construction of car infrastructure in recent decades.However,this car-oriented planning has many negative externalities,such as congestion,that have an important impact on peoples quality of life.Recent changes,such as the expansion of Metrorrey and the elimination of parking minimums in San Pedro,suggest that this trend is reversible,especially highlighting benefits such as reduced congestion and increased public and green space.Confronting the climate crisis through the promotion of electrification and a shift in travel patterns presents an opportunity to amplify this trend in Monterrey.33APPENDIX C:METHODOLOGICAL DOCUMENTATIONBecause of its length,the methodological documentation has not been included in this layout of the report.It is available at Mexico Drafting:Methodological AppendixTaylor Reich itdpLew Fulton uc davisSEPTEMBER 2024Institute for Transportation&Development Policy
2024-12-29
34页
5星级
ReportInternational earning potential of the Dutch bicycle sectorNovember 2024 Sustainable,Agricultu.
2024-12-29
38页
5星级
CoverResearch IntelligenceDecember 2024Krungsri ResearchAutonomous VehiclesThe Future of Transportat.
2024-12-29
15页
5星级
UK airline rankings 2024Exploring the top airlines in the UK based on consideration and customer sat.
2024-12-29
19页
5星级
Advanced Air Mobility1Report Nine June 2024Advanced Air MobilityExcellence A commitment to doing our.
2024-12-29
16页
5星级
Compact Cities Electrified:BrazilBRIEF FOR POLICYMAKERS2Executive SummaryNew research from the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy and the University of California,Davis,finds that Brazil could feasibly reduce public-sector expenditures on urban transport at the local,state,and federal levels by a cumulative$1 trillion BRL through 2050 by using a combination of strategies to support vehicle electrification,compact city planning,and modal shift toward walking,cycling,and public transit.Furthermore,only the combination of these strategies,not any strategy alone,will be suff cient to approach consistency with the countrys economy-wide commitments to reduce carbon emissions.The need for both electrification and mode shift illustrates how important it will be for Brazil to set ambitious decarbonization goals in this important sector.This study investigates four possible scenarios for urban passenger transport in Brazil:Business as Usual:The current trend for urban passenger travel.Electrification(Only):The fastest feasible replacement of internal-combustion vehicles withelectric ones.ModeShift(Only):The fastest feasible transformation of city planning priorities in favorof compact land use and public transport,walking,and bicycling.Electrification Shift:The combination of the previous two scenarios.The estimated requirements to achieve each scenario and the cumulative public-sector expenditure entailed are shown in Figure A.In addition to cost savings,the Electrification Shift scenario would reduce electricity consumption by 54 billion KwH per year by 2050 compared to Electrification(Only).Qualitatively,this scenario would improve road safety,promote economic inclusion of marginalized groups,and reduce air pollution.Infrastructure requirements and direct public costs by scenarioPercent of new light-duty vehicles that are electricCumulative lane-miles of roadway built 20152050Cumulative track-miles of metro rail built 20152050Cumulative lane-miles of BRT built 20152050Cumulative lane-miles of protected bikeway built 20152050Cumulative public-sector expenditure on urban passenger transport 201520502015 Baseline0 50 Business as Usual20#0,0001008002,100$12 trillion BRL2050 Electrification(Only)100#0,0001008002,100$12 trillion BRL2050 Mode Shift(Only)206,0001,6005,100130,000$11 trillion BRL2050 Electrification Shift1006,0001,6005,100130,00$11 trillion BRLThe research also measures greenhouse gas emissions from urban passenger transportation in each scenario.The results add to a growing body of evidence and show that achieving Brazils Paris Agreement commitments will require both electric vehicles and a change in travel patterns.It is insufficient for Electrification or Mode Shift to occur at the fastest possible rate independent of each otherit is only by maximizing both of these complementary strategies that Brazil can reduce emissions fast enough to approach a level consistent with holding global warming below 1.5C(represented by the blue area in Figure B).FIGURE A.Infrastructure requirements and direct public costs by scenario3To achieve the Electrification Mode Shift scenario,Brazil must restructure transportation and land-use policies to prioritize the movement of people rather than vehicles.Such restructuring will entail incentives and mandates for vehicle electrification,construction of compact mixed-use cities,and reallocation of street space and transportation funding from private motorized vehicles to walking,cycling,and public transport.In all scenarios,cars will still form an important part of the urban transport system,but the Electrification Mode Shift scenario will offer Brazilians a wide range of travel options using clean,efficient vehicles.With less money spent building roads,governments will have more resources to devote to other uses or to lower taxes.And with less money spent on fuel,Brazilians will have the freedom to invest more in other areas of their life.By protecting our planet from the worst threats of climate change,we will make it possible for the country to prosper long into the future.FIGURE B Greenhouse gas emissions by scenarioCumulative Lifecycle GHG(Mt CO2-EQ)CUMULATIVE URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONS ASSUMING MAXIMUM GRID DECARBONIZATION RATE3,0004,0001,0002,00020202025203020352040204520500BAUSum:3,400 Mt CO2EQShift(Only)Sum:2,600 Mt CO2EQEV(Only)Sum:2,700 Mt CO2EQThreshold for warming below 1.5CLimit:2,000 Mt CO2EQEV SHIFTSum:2,100 Mt CO2EQThreshold for warming below 1.5CHigh Shift(Only)High Electrification Electrification Shift(Only)Business as Usual4CONTENTSCOMPACT CITIES ELECTRIFIED:BRAZIL1.BACKGROUND2.FOUR SCENARIOS3.METHODOLOGY3.1.STRUCTURING THE MODEL3.2.DEFINING SCENARIOS 3.2.1.SCENARIOS FOR ELECTRIFICATION RATES 3.2.2.SCENARIOS FOR MODE SHIFT RATES4.SCENARIO COMPATIBILITY WITH BRAZIL CLIMATE COMMITMENTS5.SCENARIO IMPACTS ON ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION6.DIRECT PUBLIC AND PRIVATE EXPENSES IN EACH SCENARIO7.MEASURABLE GOALS FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION7.1.GOALS FOR ELECTRIFICATION7.2.GOALS FOR LAND USE7.3.GOALS FOR TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTUREAPPENDIX:METHODOLOGICAL DOCUMENTATION5ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSLEAD AUTHORS:Lewis Fulton University of California,Davis Director,Sustainable Transportation Energy PathwaysIuri Moura Institute for Transportation and Development PolicyUrban Development ManagerD.Taylor ReichInstitute for Transportation and Development PolicyData Science ManagerSUPPORTING AUTHORS:Manuel Blanco Institute for Transportation and Development Policy Transport Data InternClarisse Cunha Linke Institute for Transportation and Development PolicyBrazil Country DirectorAna Nassar Institute for Transportation and Development PolicyBrazil Program DirectorBeatriz Rodrigues Institute for Transportation and Development PolicyPublic Transport ManagerFarhana Sharmin University of California,DavisGraduate Research AssistantLeonardo Veiga Institute for Transportation and Development PolicyMonitoring&Evaluation ManagerREVIEWERS:Andr Cieplinski International Council on Clean Transportation,BrazilResearcherMrcio DAgosto Federal University of Rio de Janeiro,Transport Engineering ProgramBrazilian Institute of Sustainable TransportProfessor and ResearcherPedro Logiodice International Council on Clean Transportation,BrazilAssociate ResearcherThomas Maltese C40 CitiesZEBRA Senior ManagerGlaucia Pereira Multiplicidade Mobilidade UrbanaResearcherDavid Tsai Instituto Energia e Meio Ambiente Observatrio do Clima Project ManagerPUBLISHED MAY 2024COVER PHOTO:Passenger bus ligeirinho in Curitiba,Brazil.SOURCE:Cheng NV via Getty Images.61.BACKGROUNDThis study is the culmination of a decade of collaboration in transport modeling between ITDP and the University of California,Davis.1 Ten years of effort have produced a detailed method for high-level modeling of urban and suburban passenger transportation,but this study of Brazilalong with parallel studies of other countriesis the first time the model has been used to publish analytical results for a single country.Like its predecessor,The Compact City ScenarioElectrified,the current publication compares the economic and environmental implications of four scenarios for the future of urban passenger transportation:1)the current trajectory;2)intensive electrification;3)intensive mode shift;and 4)the combination of the latter two.But while the previous report focused on the global need to pursue these strategies,this study describes the specifics of Brazil.In addition to quantifying the emissions that each scenario would entail,we have estimated the quantities and costsor savingsof infrastructure that would result from different scenarios for the future of Brazil.These results provide a“road map”for how those scenarios might be realized.2.FOUR SCENARIOSLike the global study and parallel reports for other countries,this research investigates four scenarios for urban passenger transport in Brazil through 2050.These scenarios are diagrammed in Figure A.We start by understanding these scenarios qualitatively,including a summary of the impacts that they might have outside the scope of our modeling analysisfactors such as public health and economic inclusion.In Section 3(page 11),we define these scenarios quantitatively for modeling.Achieving the Electrification or Mode Shift scenarios would require profound but feasible changes in Brazils Policychanges that are possible under Brazils current political and economic structure.They would involve restructuring how transportation budgets are allocated,how street space is used,and how taxes and subsidies are applied to vehicles and fuelbut they are incremental changes that can be reached in the current system and would not require a“revolution”in any economic,social,or political sense.1 ITDP&UC Davis(2021),The Compact City ScenarioElectrified;ITDP&UC Davis(2017),Three Revolutions in Urban Transportation;ITDP&UC Davis(2015),A Global High Shift Cycling Scenario;ITDP&UC Davis(2014),A Global High Shift Scenario:Impacts and Potential for More Public Transport,Walking and Cycling with Lower Car Use.FIGURE A Diagram of scenarios7BUSINESS AS USUAL(“BAU”)Assumptions:Qualitative impacts:Brazil continues its current trajectory.Private motorized travel increases rapidly,becoming responsible for 67%of urban passenger travel.Electrification is relatively slow.Increase in traff c fatalities.High direct public and private costs.2Reduced access to opportunities for low-income or historically marginalized people without cars,leading to increased wealth inequality.Increase in local air pollution,causing many premature deaths and increased healthcare costs.Increase in urban highways,dividing neighborhoods and subsidizing environmentally unfriendly sprawl.Increase in carbon emissions,leading to climate catastrophe3.Traff c jams in So Paulo typify the Business as Usual future SOURCE:Danielle Hoppe,ITDP Brazil,So Paulo.2 For example,highway infrastructure spending per mile has risen dramatically:Accounting for inflation,$8 million in the 1960s per mile became$30 million per mile by the 1990s.See:American Economic Association(2023),Infrastructure Costs.3 Andrew Moseman,MIT Climate Portal(2022),Are electric vehicles definitely better for the climate than gas-powered cars?The answer is yes,though the extent to which improvement is meaningful is based on electricity source and manufacturing emissions.The Business as Usual scenario will encourage car-oriented development with a limited increase of clean energy.8ELECTRIFICATION(ONLY)Assumptions:Qualitative impacts:Key policies:Electrification proceeds much more rapidly than is currently planned,following proposed EPA standards and other strong electrification policies,with 60%of new light-duty vehicles electric by 2030 and 100%shortly thereafter.Sharp reduction in carbon emissions.4Sharp reduction in local air and noise pollution.5Increase in traffic fatalities.High direct public and private costs.Reduced access to opportunities for low-income people without cars.Increase in urban highways,dividing neighborhoods and subsidizing environmentally unfriendly sprawl.Consumption of limited supply of critical minerals,raising concerns related to extractive industries,conservation,national security,and supply chain.Supply-and demand-side EV incentives.Ambitious fuel economy and tailpipe GHG emission standards.Battery reuse and recycling.Equitable placement of standardized public charging points for EVs(including two-wheelers).Electric grid expansion and decarbonization.Electric vehicles,like this electric bus in Maring,will be everywhere in the Electrification(Only)future.SOURCE:Rafael Calabria,IDEC,Maring.4 With high electrification,the emissions from transport will be reduced sharply.See:Andrew Moseman,MIT Climate Portal(2022).Are electric vehicles definitely better for the climate than gas-powered cars?5 Tsoi et al.(2023),The co-benefits of electric mobility in reducing traffic noise and chemical air pollution:Insights from a transit-oriented city.9MODE SHIFT(ONLY)Assumptions:Key policies:Qualitative impacts:Compact city planning is combined with reallocation of both funding and street space to walking,bicycling,and public transport.In this case,Brazil slows the construction of new urban roadways,focusing instead on providing denser housing,mixed land use,and better bus/bicycle infrastructure on existing roadways.Car travel falls to half of Business as Usual levels by 2050.Reallocation of transport budgets to walking,cycling,and public transport,especially BRT.Street redesigns that shift space from travel.Reduction in traffic fatalities.Increased access to opportunities,especially for low-income people,people of color and other groups suffering from spatial segregation,people with disabilities,and the elderly or young.6Increase in walking and cycling,which improves physical and mental health,reducing healthcare costs.7High local air and noise pollution from internal-combustion(ICE)vehicles relative to Electrification(Only).In the Mode Shift(Only)future,most urban Brazilians will live near safe infrastructure for walking and cycling,like in So Paulos city center.SOURCE:Danielle Hoppe,ITDP Brazil,So Paulo.6 See:National Library of Medicine(2023),Does the compact city paradigm help reduce poverty?Note,this is most effective in mitigating poverty in combination with housing affordability measures;also see Urban Institute(not dated),Causes and consequences:Separate and unequal neighborhoods.7 Matthew Raifman et al.(2021),Mortality implications of increased active mobility for a proposed regional transportation emission cap-and-invest program.ELECTRIFICATION SHIFTAssumptions:Qualitative impacts:Key policies:Compact cities and mode shift,combined with rapid electrification:Electrification and Mode Shift together.Reduction in traffic fatalitiesIncreased access to opportunities for allIncrease in walking and cycling,which improve physical and mental health,reducing healthcare costExtensive reduction in local air and noise pollutionMassive reduction in carbon emissions,consistent with the terms of the Paris AgreementAll policies listed for Electrification(Only)and for Mode Shift(Only),except for growth in urban highwaysCreation of low-emission areas to incentivize both mode shift and vehicle electrificationIn the Electrification Shift future,most Brazilians will travel by walking,bicycling,or driving electric vehicles,illustrated by this shared street in Rio de Janeiro.SOURCE:Stefano Aguiar,ITDP Brazil,Rio de Janeiro.8 Dangerous by Design(2022).3.METHODOLOGYThis study uses the same methods as the 2021 Compact City ScenarioElectrified and the other 2023/2024 country-level studies published by ITDP and UC Davis.In each of these studies,we define four scenarios and estimate their impacts using the same modeling methods.This section will first describe the structure of these modeling methods and then outline our process for defining the scenarios that are taken as modeling input.Our application of this model to Brazil has been reviewed by experts representing a range of national specialist institutions to help ensure accuracy.These experts names and affiliations are listed on this briefs title page.For a more9 detailed description of the methodology,including a complete set of data,please review the accompanying methodological appendix.3.1.Structuring the ModelOur study is limited to urban passenger transportation and does not include intercity travel,rural travel,or freight carriage of any kind.We define“urban”based on United Nations data,including all urban or suburban areas of 300,000 people or more.9 This definition encompasses about 90%of the Brazilian population.Other research shows that both electrification and mode shift will be necessary to decarbonize rural/intercity10 and freight11 transport,and this focus in our scope allows us to model urban and suburban travel with more precision.The model is calibrated to industry-standard data from the International Energy Agencys Mobility Model12 except where more detailed Brazil-specific data is available.This calibration determines the estimation of conditions in the base year,the projection of the Business as Usual scenario,and factors such as emissions factors,fuel emission intensities,and costs.This general modeling approach was reviewed as part of the 2021 publication,and a list of reviewers can be found there.13 Our method provides a high-level comparison of different scenarios rather than a detailed bottom-up analysis.This results in a perspective thats relevant to the urban passenger transport sector broadly rather than focusing exclusively on a handful of particular policies.9 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs(2018),World Urbanization Prospects.10 International Transport Forum:OECD(2023),ITF Transport Outlook 2023.11 Lynn H.Kaack,Environmental Research Letters(2018),Decarbonizing intraregional freight systems with a focus on modal shift.12 The Mobility Model is only available under a closed license,and the full dataset cannot be shared.However,all relevant variables for Brazil are included in the methodologi-cal appendix and may be reviewed there.13 ITDP&UC Davis(2021),The Compact City ScenarioElectrified.1214 Selected for data availability and compatibility between sibling studies and to avoid distortions due to COVID-19.15 Including emissions not only from the production and consumption of fuel or electricity but also from the manufacture and disposal of vehicles and the construction and maintenance of infrastructure.16 National Platform for Electric Mobility in Brazil(2022),2nd Electric Mobility Statistical Yearbook.3.2.Defining Scenarios After setting the scope and calibrating the model,the next step is to quantitatively define the four scenarios for urban passenger transportation in Brazil that were described on page 7 above.Beginning from a base year of 201514 and looking to future time points in 2030 and 2050,we describe possible futures.These scenarios are not intended to precisely define the only op-tions for the future of the sector;rather,they are meant to give an idea of general trajectories that are possible for urban passenger transport.For electrification,our forecasting is expressed in terms of the percentage of new vehicles that are electric.The Business as Usual and Mode Shift scenarios share the same lower electrification rates;the Electrification and Electrification Shift scenarios share the same higher electrification rates.There may be fewer new cars sold per year in the Mode Shift scenario,but the same percentage of those cars are electric.Similarly,modal splits and travel activities(defined in terms of person-miles traveled by different modes)are identical in the Business as Usual and Electrification scenarios,with higher levels of car use.These are also identical in the Mode Shift and Electrification Mode Shift scenarios,with lower levels of car use.After defining these scenarios,we will estimate their implications.For each scenario,based on the size of vehicle fleets and the amount of activity per vehicle,we estimate life cycle15 greenhouse gas emissions(Section 4),energy consumption(Section 5),and total quantities and costs of infrastructure,vehicles,fuel,and operation(Section 6).3.2.1.Scenarios for Electrification Rates The Business as Usual and Mode Shift scenarios follow the same projections for the percentage of new vehicles that are electric,broken down by year and vehicle typethe sales shares of vehicles.In these scenarios,our projections are meant to represent the countrys current trajectory.These estimates are designed to align with something between the“conservative”and“moderate”projections supplied by the Electric Mobility Statistical Yearbook of the National Platform for Electric Mobility in Brazil.16 However,since our modeling does not include hybrid vehicles and the National Platform has fairly high projections for plug-in hybrids,we have increased the percentage of fully electric vehicles to compensate.The Electrification and Electrification Mode Shift scenarios follow sales share percentages that are designed to align with the National Platforms“aggressive”projections.Percentage of New Vehicles that Are Electric(Rather than Internal-Combustion)Business as Usual and Mode Shift(Only)Electrification(Only)and Electrification Shift201520302050201520302050LDVs(cars and light trucks)0%5 %00%2-wheelers/motorcycles(not includinge-bikes0%5 %00%Buses0%5 %0#0%3.2.2.Scenarios for Electrification RatesThe Business as Usual and Electrification scenarios include modal splits and travel activity projections based on the industry-standard International Energy Agencys(IEA)Mobility Model,which includes base-year estimates and future projections of travel breakdowns by mode.They can be seen in Figure E and Figure F.The Mode Shift and Electrification Mode Shift scenarios follow our own calculations,in two steps.First,we project possible future urban densities in Brazil under a maximum-feasible policy to promote compact,mixed-use cities.Second,we identify the maximum feasible replacement of car and motorcycle travel and substitution with walking,bicycling,public transportation,telecommuting,or shorter trips,including a factor to show how mode shift can be more easily achieved in compact communities.For more detail on this modeling process,see the methodological appendix.The first step of the calculation draws on data from the European Commissions Global Human Settlement Layer,17 identifying the current trends in urban density and then also projecting a compact cities scenario in which various policies come together to achieve the following effect:In the Mode Shift scenarios,cities in Brazil immediately stop sprawling,consuming no new undeveloped urban land.Rather,population growth is concentrated in areas that currently have less than 4,000 people per km2 to bring them to a population above that level.This threshold is arbitrary,but it reflects a general point at which it becomes feasible to serve urban areas with public transportation.The modeling approach is meant to generally represent moderate density(three-to four-story apartments)and zoning reform to permit by-right multifamily construction(without parking minimums)on all urban land.Unlike in many other countries,most of Brazils urban population already lives at this relatively compact level,and the existing trend is toward further densification(see Figure C).Land-use reform will still be important in making Brazilian cities sustainable,but that reform may be more focused on transport-oriented development(TOD)and on mixed-use“15-minute cities.”Figure B Electrification rates by vehicle type,year,and scenario17 European Commission(2022).Global Human Settlement Layer ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu1314In the second step,after estimating future densities,we used the projected potential urban densities to identify the maximum feasible reductions in car and motorcycle travel as a function of those densities.In more compact communities,it will be easier to replace car travel with travel by other modes.We estimate that a 16 percent reduction in car/motorcycle travel relative to 2030 Business as Usual and a 53 percent reduction relative to 2050 Business as Usual are achievable.The specific redistribution of this travel to other modes was based on three factors.First,it was partially determined by the existing modal split in Brazil(for example,because bus ridership is already relatively high compared to other countries,a large amount of car travel was redistributed to bus).Second,it was partially determined by the density of Brazilian cities(for example,because Brazilian cities have many residents living above 16,000 ppl/km2,we estimated that it would be possible to redistribute a substantial amount of travel to rail,which serves dense areas well).Third,it was guided and approved by the Brazil specialist reviewers listed on page 2(for example,our initial estimates showed an amount of redistribution to cycling that they considered unrealistic,so we decreased cycling in 2050 to a more modest quantity).More detail can be found in the methodological appendix.The results of this calculation are a modal shift relative to Business as Usual,shown in Figure E and Figure F,below.Figure C Urban density groupings80,00060,00040,00020,0000200020152030 HighShift2050 HighShift2030 BAU/High EV2050 BAU/High EV500-1,000 ppl/km24,000-8,000 ppl/km21,000-2,000 ppl/km28,000-16,000 ppl/km22,000-4,000 ppl/km16,000 ppl/kmURBAN POPULATION DENSITY GROUPINGS BY YEAR AND SCENARIO15Mode Splits by Scenario and Year(by person-km traveled,rather than by trip;independent of overall travel activity,which grows over time)2015 Base Year2030 Business as Usual and Electrification(Only)2030 Mode Shift(Only)and Electrification Shift2050 Business as Usual and Electrification(Only)2050 Mode Shift(Only)and Electrification ShiftCar54XPg4%Bus26(6%Rail2%2%2%1%4%3-wheeler0%0%0%0%0%2-wheeler10%9%5%Bicycle2%2%5%2%Walking5%5%6%3%8%Figure FMode splits by percent of travelFigure ETravel activityMODAL SPLITS BY SCENARIO AND YEAR151050AVERAGE PERSON-KM TRAVELED PER PERSON PER DAY2015 Base Year2030 Business as Usual&Electrification(Only)2050 Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification Shift2030 Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification Shift2050 Business as Usual&Electrification(Only)CarBus2-WheelerBicycleRailWalkingCreated by corpus delictifrom the Noun Project16CLIMATE COMMITMENTSBrazils commitments to greenhouse gas reductions are ambitious.Brazil aims to meet the Paris Agreement by reaching net-zero emissions by 2050,with strong targets along the way.18 Brazilian goals do not clearly specify which sectors of the economy will be responsible for which portions of the decarbonization,but assuming that the“carbon budget”is allocated pro-portionately to different sectors on the basis of their potential for emissions reduction,urban passenger transport can be permitted to emit no more than 2,000 Mt of CO2-eq cumulatively by 2050.Considering that this sector is currently on track to emit 3,400 Mt over the same duration,this is an ambitious goal.Our modeling shows that the countrys urban passenger transport sector will not be able to achieve such a decarbonization goal under the Electrification or Mode Shift scenarios alone but will require both strategies in concert.Although the Electrification and the Mode Shift scenarios would each cause considerablereductions in greenhouse gas emissions,only the combined Electrification Mode Shift scenario even comes close to keeping cumulative urban passenger transport emissions within a level potentially compatible with limiting climate change to 1.5C in this century,as shown by the area under the blue threshold curve19 in Figure G,above.20 However,even this most extensive scenario still falls short.Not only is Electrification Mode Shift the only scenario that approaches holding global warming within Paris Agreement goals,it is the only scenario that approaches Brazils goal of achieving net-zero by 2050.Figure GGreenhouse gas emissions by scenarioCumulative Lifecycle GHG(Mt CO2-EQ)CUMULATIVE URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONS ASSUMING MAXIMUM GRID DECARBONIZATION RATE3,0004,0001,0002,00020202025203020352040204520500BAUSum:3,400 Mt CO2EQShift(Only)Sum:2,600 Mt CO2EQEV(Only)Sum:2,700 Mt CO2EQThreshold for warming below 1.5CLimit:2,000 Mt CO2EQEV SHIFTSum:2,100 Mt CO2EQThreshold for warming below 1.5CHigh Shift(Only)High Electrification Electrification Shift(Only)Business as Usual18 UNFCCC(2023),Federative Republic of Brazil Nationally Determined Contribution(NDC)to the Paris Agreement Under the UNFCCC.4.SCENARIO COMPATIBILITY WITH BRAZIL17With a decarbonized grid,electric vehicles will cause very low emissions through their operation.However,the use of cars,electric or not,will still lead to substantial emissions from the paving and maintenance of roads and from the production of steel,batteries,and other industrial processes involved in vehicle manufacture and disposal.Under the Electrification scenarios,as can be seen in Figure H,more than half of emissions are from these sources,which are much more challenging to decarbonize.Indeed,electrification actually increases manufacturing emissions by about 8 percent relative to Business as Usual because of the emissions intensity of battery manufacture and of heavier vehicles.21 For Brazil to reach net-zero by 2050,all emissions must be minimized,which can only be accomplished by combining Electrification with Mode Shift.Biofuels are an important component of Brazils energy mix,and they are included as part of the calculations of fuel emissions intensity all throughout the model.Brazils current trends in biofuels are incorporated equally into all scenarios calculations.Electrification alone also requires exponential growth in the use of scarce critical minerals for batteries.The environmental,social-justice,and national security challenges entailed by that would be significantly mitigated by combining Electrification with Mode Shift and reducing overall dependence on passenger vehicles while electrifying.22Figure H Annual greenhouse gas emissions by scenario and source21 This 8 percent figure is conservative,based on the assumption of rapid decarbonization of the manufacturing sector by 2050.Eighty percent is a reasonable estimate today:See Andrew Moseman&Sergey Paltsev,MIT Climate Portal(2022),Are electric vehicles definitely better for the climate than gas-powered cars?150100500MILLIONS OF TONNES OF CO2-EQ GHG PER YEARBusiness as UsualElectrification(Only)Mode Shift (Only)Electrification Mode ShiftFuel/ElectricityInfrastructureVehicle ManufactureANNUAL URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT EMISSIONS AS OF 2050ASSUMING MAXIMUM GRID DECARBONIZATION RATE185.SCENARIO IMPACTS ON ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTIONMode Shift not only provides a degree of redundancy with Electrification,it also reduces the burden of rapid grid decarbonization by dramatically reducing the increased electricity demand that vehicle electrification will cause.Furthermore,Mode Shift increases resiliency at all levels by providing redundancy in transportation options.tion in total energyFigure K Annual energy consumption 22 Center on Global Energy Policy(2023),Q&A:Critical minerals demand growth in the net-zero scenario.4005003002001000BILLION KILOWATT-HOURS2015 Business as Usual2030 Business as Usual2030 Mode Shift(Only)2030 Electrification(Only)2030 Electrification ShiftEnergy from liquid fuelsThe Electrification(Only)scenario represents a major reduction in total energy consumption relative to Business as Usual,because electric vehicles are much more efficient per mile than internal-combustion vehicles.However,that reduction in total energy consumption comes with a great increase in the use of electricity in particular,as seen in Figure K.In the Electrification scenario,urban passenger transport in Brazil will consume about 132 billion kWh of electricity annually by 2050.Electrification Mode Shift reduces this consumption by about 41 percent(54 billion kWh),or the equivalent of the annual power generation of almost 11,000 wind turbines.That might mean a reduction in the costs of building infrastructure for renewable power generation or freeing up electricity for other urgent needs in the face of the climate crisis.ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE,SCENARIO,AND YEAR2050 Business As Usual2050 Mode Shift(Only)2050 Electrification(Only)2050 Electrification ShiftEnergy from Electricity196.DIRECT PUBLIC AND PRIVATEEXPENSES IN EACH SCENARIOThe Mode Shift and Electrification Mode Shift scenarios offer efficiencies that could save about$13 trillion for the Brazilian economy overall,including savings to the public and private sectors.The structure of a transportation system has many impacts on a nations economy,both direct and indirect.Our model tabulates only the direct impacts:the expenses of manufacturing,maintaining,fueling,and operating vehicles and the expenses of building and maintaining infrastructure.These are shown in Figure L.These expenses can be divided into those borne ultimately by the public sector and those borne ultimately by individuals.23 Mode Shift would lead to enormous economic savings for the Brazilian economya cumulative savings of about$10 trillion BRL.Of this,about$1 trillion BRL in savings would accrue to national,state,and local governments,tabulated in Figure N in Section 7,below.Our calculations only include the direct costs of urban passenger transport and not indirect costs such as healthcare expenses related to vehicle collisions or sedentary lifestyles;costs related to air,noise,or water pollution;costs of farmland or natural areas lost to suburban sprawl;or,conversely,the economic benefits derived from job creation.24 All of these indirect costs and benefits are likely to mean that the true economic benefit of Electrification Mode Shift would be many times higher than what we have calculated.Figure L Cumulative direct costs of urban passenger transport23 For the sake of conservatism,in these calculations we have assumed that the government will bear the entire cost of public transport operationsthat is,fares will be free.We do expect that public transport subsidies will increase in the Mode Shift scenarios,though possibly not to this extreme.24 Investments in public transit create nearly twice as many jobs per dollar as investments in new road-building.See:Transportation for America(2021),Road and public transit maintenance create more jobs than building new highways.40,00030,00020,00010,0000BILLIONS OF 2023 BRLBusiness as UsualMode Shift(Only)Electrification (Only)Electrification ShiftCumulative Private CostCumulative Public CostCUMULATIVE DIRECT PUBLIC AND PRIVATE COSTS OF URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT 2015-2050,BY SCENARIO207.MEASURABLE GOALS FOR URBANPASSENGER TRANSPORTATIONIt is possible for Brazil to achieve the Electrification Mode Shift scenario.This scenario offers enormous savings to the public sector as well as private individuals and enterprises,while also reducing emissions from urban passenger transportation to the level most closely consistent with the countrys commitment to contribute to preventing global warming of less than 1.5C.It will not require any additional funding beyond the resources that Brazil already expends for urban passenger transportationrather,Electrification Mode Shift will only require a change in policies and a reallocation of resources.There are three elements that must come together to achieve the Electrification Mode Shift scenario:first,increased vehicle efficiency,primarily through electrification;second,land-use reform to make trips shorter by promoting compact mixed-use cities;third,facilitating Mode Shift,primarily by providing alternative infrastructure but also by pricing car travel according to its true cost.In this section we provide evidence-based goals for each of these three elements based on the quantitative analysis in this study.If achieved,these goals would bring the benefits of the Electrification Shift scenario.These goals could be accomplished in many ways,and in Appendix A,we provide basic policy agendas at the federal,state,and local levels that could help Brazil reach them.7.1.Goals for ElectrificationTo achieve or exceed the countrys climate commitments,electrification must proceed much more rapidly than its current course.As discussed in Section 3.2.1,new sales of different vehicle types must be electrified at the rates shown in bold in Figure M,below.Most importantly,15 percent of all new light-duty vehicle sales(cars and light trucks)must be electric by 2030 and 100 percent by or before 2050.This will require not only meeting the National Platform for Electric Mobilitys“aggressive”projections but also continuing policy efforts and consumer incentives for decades to come.Percentages of New Vehicles that Are Electric(Rather than Internal-Combustion)Business as Usual and Mode Shift(Only)Electrification(Only)and Electrification Shift201520302050201520302050LDVs(cars and light trucks)0%5 %00%2-wheelers/motorcycles(not includinge-bikes)0%5 %00%Buses0%5 %0#0%7.2.Goals for Land UseMore compact,mixed-use urban form will have a two-fold benefit for the cities of Brazil.First,when people live closer to their places of work or leisure,trips will be shorter,and so even ICE cars will emit less and cost motorists less.Second,when trips are shorter,they are easier to take by bicycle or public transport,facilitating Mode Shift.Achieving the Electrification Mode Shift scenario and meeting the countrys climate commitments will require Brazil to maintain policies that enable compact urban development while promoting mixed-use and transport-oriented development.As discussed in Section 3.2.2 above,Brazilian cities must remain at least as dense as their current trajectory will lead them to be.Figure M Sales of electric vehicles by year and scenario217.3.Goals for Transportation InfrastructureThis analysis provides the clearest agenda for the third of the three components necessary to achieve the Electrification Mode Shift scenario:the specific transportation infrastructure investments that will be needed to achieve such levels of Mode Shift and the estimated savings that are possible by pursuing such a strategy.Figure N,below,indicates the extent of infrastructure and vehicle investment that Brazil must make to reach the Electrification Mode Shift scenario.As shown in Figure N,the Shift element of the scenario will mean that federal,state,and local governments will save about$1 trillion BRL by 2050.The expense of building and operating transit will be more than balanced by the reduced need to build and maintain highways.Total New Infrastructure and Vehicles Required 20152030Urban road lane-milesBRT lane-milesMetro rail lane-milesProtected bicycle lane-milesBusesTrain carsTotal cost to governments(billion BRL)Business as Usual&Electrification(Only)57,00040001,600340,000900$3,700Mode Shift(Only)Electrification Shift21,0001,60030035,000380,0001,300$3,400Total new infrastructure and vehicles required 20152050Urban road lane-milesBRT lane-milesHeavy rail(metro)lane-milesProtected bicycle lane-milesBusesTrain carsTotal cost to governments(billion BRL)Business as Usual&Electrification(Only)230,0008001002,100840,0002,100$12,000Mode Shift(Only)&Electrification Shift36,0005,1001,600130,0001,200,0005,200$11,000This analysis provides a clear road map for transportation infrastructure investments in cities across Brazil.This scale of transformation,while massive,is not unprecedented.Paris decreased car travel by almost 50 percent in 30 years by investing in other modes and traffic control strategies.Jakarta and Bogot have each built a mass transit system with more than a million riders a day in less than 15 years.Theres no reason why Brazilian cities cant do the same.Figure N Detailed description of in-frastructure and investment requirements by scenario22APPENDIX:METHODOLOGICAL DOCUMENTATIONBecause of its length,the methodological documentation has not been included in this layout of the report.It is available at https:/ Taylor Reich itdpLew Fulton uc davisMAY 2024!#$%$&$()* (, -#.* $-$%*/(012*.3$(4*2VIuri MouraITDP BRAZIL
2024-12-29
23页
5星级
Data and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 0812024 08Data and AI in logisticsWhitepaper1Artificial intelligence can fundamentally change the logistics industry and supply chain management.But how can companies benefit from this and optimize their processes?The strategic introduction of AI technologies is the key to increasing efficiency and productivity.Data and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 082statworx GmbHHanauer Landstr.15060314 Frankfurt am M 49(0)69 6783 067-51Tarik AshryPR&Communications SpecialistTarik Ashry is an AI editor and expert for strategic communication.He deals with the prerequisites for an ethical ethical use of AI and the roles that corporate management and corporate culture corporate culture play in this.In this whitepaper,you will learn how artificial intelligence can be used in the logistics indus-try and in supply chain management and what benefits it offers.It describes the various application areas of AI in logistics and outlines how companies can optimize their processes by integrating AI technologies.We also share specific use cases and provide an outlook for the future.Find out what you can expect in this whitepaper and which authors are behind it.About the whitepaper and the authorsTobias Salfellner Senior ConsultantTobias Salfellner is an expert in AI,data science and machine learning.Through his work on a variety of data science use cases in different indus-tries,he has a deep understanding of the market and technology.Data and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 083Contents4519Management SummaryA brief overview of the topic of AI in logisticsWhitepaper ContentsHow AI is revolutionizing the logistics industryUse CasesFour exemplary use cases from around the world23About statworxWhat you should know about the company22Outlook and ConclusionWhat you should take away from this white paper25SourcesReferences and further informationData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 084Management SummarySummaryThe impact of artificial intelligence(AI)in(intra)logistics and supply chain management lies in its transformative potential to streamline operations across various func-tions.AI applications in logistics encompass planning,procurement,manufacturing,warehousing,distribution,transportation,and sales.The adoption of AI technolo-gies offers benefits such as optimized routes,improved demand forecasting,enhanced productivity,reduced operational costs,and on-time deliveries.Compa-nies leveraging AI in supply chain management report decreased costs,increased revenues,and improved operational efficiencies.AI systems help reduce manual efforts,enhance safety,streamline warehouse opera-tions,and facilitate timely deliveries to customers.The integration of AI with real-time data and external sources is crucial for maximizing its effectiveness in supply chain operations.Whitepaperstatworx5 5From cost reduction to resilience and sustainability1Whitepaperstatworx2024 08Data and AI in logisticsData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 086From cost reduction to resilience and sustainabilityIntroductionLogistics and transportation generate and account for immense economic value.UNCTADs Global Trade Update reports that in 2021,worldwide trade reached a peak of$28.5 trillion a tenfold increase since 1980.1 According to New Strategy Consulting,the global intralogistics market was valued at$47.08 billion in 2022 and is expec-ted to reach$145.49 billion by 2030.With a compound annual growth rate of 15,1%,it is driven by the adoption of robotics and automation,leading to greater effi-ciency,accuracy,and speed.2 These figures underscore the extensive transportation networks that have under-pinned globalization for years.Robust supply chains and efficient logistics are critical components for long-term business success across all industries.In recent years,the focus in supply chain management has shifted from pure cost reduction to resilience,sus-tainability,and the integration of artificial intelligence(AI).For decades,many businesses have relied on single suppliers for certain resources,favoring simplified supply chains and scale economies.This has been a generally successful strategy until a global pandemic,armed con-flicts and wars in regions highly influential on world trade,and subsequent disruptions have significantly altered global trade dynamics in the past four years.Companies are re-evaluating their risk strategies,emphasizing the need for nearshoring,alternate sourcing,inventory opti-mization,and better collaboration for increased visibility.Using automation,digitalization,artificial intelligence,and machine learning,logistics firms want to tackle typi-cal challenges such as low stock turnover,small order quantities with high delivery speeds,and the growing need to operate in an energy-efficient and sustainable manner whilst also dealing with staff shortages and increasing demand.Adding to these challenges is the rise of environmental,social,and corporate governance(ESG)prescriptions and a growing political will to regulate supply chains.i Transparency in emissions of harmful substances and compliant labor practices are set to become stricter and more binding.In this environment,digitalization and AI can be transformative tools for enhancing supply chain agility,efficiency,transparency,and resilience.With the recent introduction of(generative)AI tools in many industries,the workforce will have to learn how to make use of these new technologies.3 Technology does not work wonders on its own but requires skilled and trained users and a strong data culture to improve decision-making and productivity.iAs evidenced by the proposed Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive of the European Union.Efficient management and optimization of storage spacesThe integration of AI enablesAccurate forecasting of supply and demandError detection and quality controlOptimization of transport and picking routesPredictive maintenance for equipment7A broad range of possibilities2Whitepaperstatworx2024 08Data and AI in logisticsData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 088A broad range of possibilitiesStatus quoArtificial intelligence can perform a range of tasks from basic to highly complex.And it is now essential across various sectors,including supply chain management and logistics.AI enhances these industries by providing ins-tant insights and by cutting costs,saving time,minimizing waste,and boosting efficiency.Real-time optimization and managementThe role of AI in the industry will continue to grow rapidly.Research conducted by AI-platform provider Dataiku sug-gests that by 2026,companies will prioritize AIOpsii,aug-mented intelligence,as well as discovery and analysis applications.When it comes to the implementation of AI in 2024,however,firms in the supply chain sector work on intelligent task-and process automation,discovery and analysis apps,as well as augmented analytics.4 Currently,four major use cases are prevalent:Optimization of Fulfillment and DistributionAI is being utilized to automate and optimize logistics pro-cesses,including order processing,inventory manage-ment,and distribution.This automation leads to more efficient resource utilization and an enhanced customer experience.AIs predictive capabilities enable accurate forecasting of production and transportation volumes,contributing to improved efficiency.5Route OptimizationAI algorithms analyze real-time traffic data and environ-mental conditions to identify the most efficient routes for delivery vehicles.This not only reduces fuel costs and improves delivery times but also enhances driver safety by avoiding hazardous conditions.6 Inventory ManagementAI plays a crucial role in inventory management,especi-ally for businesses dealing with a large number of stock keeping units.AI can predict demand,manage stock levels,and even automate ordering processes,thereby reducing the risk of stockouts or overstocking.7Supply Chain VisibilityAI enhances supply chain visibility by providing real-time data on shipments,enabling companies to monitor their goods throughout the supply chain.This visibility helps in identifying potential delays and making necessary adjustments to ensure timely delivery.8iiCoined by Gartner,AIOps or artificial intelligence for IT operations,is the application of artificial intelligence(AI)capabilities,such as natural language processing and machine learning models,to automate and streamline IT service management and operational workflows.AI adoption rate in supply chain and manufacturingWorldwide in 2022 and 2025Not usingPiloting use casesLimited adoptionWidescale adoptionAI is critical400 %0%Current adoption in 2022Expected adoption in 2025Quelle:StatistaContinue on next pageData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 089Status quoStrengthening resilience with prescriptive analyticsIn view of the changing global environment,however,the most important trend for the future is a different one:diversification is the name of the game as years of pan-demics,wars,and other disruptions have turned resi-lience into the number one priority.As discussed above,AI systems can predict demand trends,inventory changes,and possible disruptions using historical and current data.This prediction aids in optimizing stock levels,reducing shortages,and enhan-cing supply chain efficiency.Accurate demand forecasts ensure products are available when and where needed,increasing effectiveness and customer satisfaction.Predictive analytics is progressing towards prescriptive analytics,which will eventually automate more workflow components.Here,AI will play a key role due to the surge in data generation.By 2025,it is estimated that the data produced will equal the storage of 200 billion iPhone 14s,about 181 zettabytes.This data,along with growing com-putational power,allows for the creation of more sophis-ticated models for complex tasks.9Most industrial companies want supply chain resilienceChanges to global supply chains in the last two years62%have made significant changes to their supplier base57%have established new operations in one or more additional countries53%have near-or re-shored operations10Applications of Data Science and AI:Almost anything is possible3Whitepaperstatworx2024 08Data and AI in logisticsData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 0811Fields of ApplicationApplications of Data Science and AI:Almost anything is possibleThe range of potential use cases and applications of data science and AI in logistics and transportation can be segmented into eight categories.In each category,AI and data science technologies can optimize a particular set of tasks and processes.10 It can assist procurement and sales(1);streamline the warehouse(2);automate sortation,storage,and retrieval(3);optimize shipping(4);visually detect errors and damages(5);manage the avai-lability of machinery and vehicles(6);completely change the game in the form of robots,drones,and autonomous vehicles(7);or guide people with sensory support sys-tems(8);or assist in all aspects of communication and information transfer(9).1.Demand Forecasting,Supply Planning&Dynamic Pricing:AI significantly improves the utilization of real-time data for precise demand forecasting and dynamically fine-tunes supply chain operations.It enables on-the-fly pri-cing adjustments to align with market fluctuations.By promptly detecting inventory shortages,AI facilitates the timely placement of orders.It oversees inventory levels and generates necessary alerts,streamlining stock management,boosting supply chain effective-ness,and reducing expenditures.Requiring vast data-sets to detect trends,patterns,and seasonal changes,AI ensures efficient inventory control and consistent product availability.2.Warehouse Management Systems(WMS):WMS streamline warehouse operations by managing inventory,fulfilling orders,and coordinating equipment,ensuring efficient material flow.These systems cut labor costs through task optimization,bolster inventory management to avoid shortages,and enhance space use.AI-enhanced WMS,utilizing ML for product insights,smartly allocate storage based on product attributes,improving placement efficiency and accuracy while offe-ring real-time bottleneck alerts.Continue on next pageData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 08123.Automated Sortation Systems&Automated Storage and Retrieval Systems(AS/RS):Automated sortation systems identify and direct mate-rials on conveyors,enhancing speed,reducing labor reli-ance,and increasing order accuracy.AS/RS automate material storage and retrieval,following set paths to manage tasks traditionally done by workers.They come in various forms like cranes and carousels,dramatically lowering labor requirements,enhancing accuracy,and maximizing storage density.4.Route Optimization/Freight Management:AI optimizes routing to reduce shipping costs and time.In warehouses,time is of the essence in collecting and providing goods.Faster picking speeds up delivery to customers,enhancing satisfaction and loyalty.AI opti-mizes picking paths and transportation routes within the warehouse,using ML to determine the most efficient routes for robots and staff,taking into account special cases like delivery windows,and aiming to reduce energy consumption.This not only modernizes operations but also lessens the ecological footprint,maintaining com-petitiveness and meeting market demands.5.Damage/Error Detection&Visual Inspection:Computer vision technology identifies damages for qua-lity control.To maintain high-quality standards in the face of increasing demands,AI can be employed to automate the inspection process,detect errors early,and improve product quality.For instance,AI-based inspection sys-tems using optical sensors and image processing can examine products in real time,identifying defects at the point of reception,thus minimizing waste and the need for rework.This ensures quality and increases efficiency.6.Predictive Maintenance&Industrial Internet of Things(IIoT)&Fleet Management Systems:Fleet management oversees vehicles to boost producti-vity and efficiency while cutting costs.Using telematics,it tracks vehicle data,enabling better route manage-ment,equipment protection,and maintenance sche-duling.AI,analyzing data from IIoT sensors,anticipates machinery malfunctions to avert breakdowns.This pre-dictive maintenance,empowered by AI,proactively iden-tifies potential issues through sensor data and machine learning,slashing downtime by up to 90%,bolstering safety,and extending the lifespan of equipment.Such preemptive strategies not only save significant costs by reducing inefficiencies but also intertwine with the broader scope of the Industrial IIoT.The IIoT creates a network of interconnected devices within warehouses,thereby streamlining operations,amplifying productivity,trimming expenses,and supporting more informed deci-sion-making with superior data insights.7.Automated Guided Vehicles(AGV),Autonomous Mobile Robots(AMR),Collaborative Robots&Delivery Drones:Drones deliver to inaccessible areas,or areas that have become dangerous to access for humans.AI-driven robots are heavily used to improve supply chain manage-ment.Cobots assist human workers by minimizing errors and enhancing speed and efficiency,allowing staff to focus on higher-value tasks.Studies show cobots can boost efficiency by 30%,aiding in various tasks such as picking and packing.AGVs and AMRs facilitate cargo movement,with AMRs operating independently thanks to environmental sensors.They enhance productivity,decrease manual labor,reduce errors,and improve safety while being scalable to operational growth.Fields of ApplicationContinue on next pageData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 08138.Wearables,Voice Picking&Pick-to-Light and Put-to-Light Systems:Wearable devices such as smart glasses and GPS bra-celets enhance warehouse operations by providing real-time guidance,streamlining tasks like stocking and navigation.They focus workers attention,increase effi-ciency,and lower costs by enabling quicker task com-pletion.Voice picking systems use verbal instructions to assist workers in fulfilling orders,improving accuracy,productivity,and safety by keeping hands and eyes free from paperwork and devices.Pick-to-Light and Put-to-Light systems guide workers using lights for item place-ment and retrieval,boosting productivity by up to 50%,improving accuracy,and cutting down on training time.9.AI-Chatbots:AI chatbots offer a variety of useful functions in the logistics industry.They are available 24/7 and enable seamless customer interaction across various platforms such as websites and messaging services.These chat-bots can provide real-time delivery status and tracking information,increasing transparency and boosting cus-tomer confidence.They also make it easier to manage order changes,cancellations and product enquiries,Fields of Applicationwhich promotes customer satisfaction and loyalty.With the ability to handle multiple enquiries simultaneously,AI chatbots improve the scalability and efficiency of cus-tomer service and lower operating costs by reducing the need for additional staff.In addition,they support inven-tory management,optimise the last mile of delivery and collect valuable customer feedback that can be used to continuously improve services.Overall,AI chatbots are helping to automate operational processes,reduce costs and increase customer satisfaction in the logistics industry.2024 0814Benefits and impact:The best is yet to come4WhitepaperstatworxData and AI in logisticsData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 0815AI delivers real economic value and that value can grow significantly.According to a study by McKinsey,the suc-cessful implementation of AI has helped businesses improve logistics costs by 15%,inventory levels by 35%,and service levels by 65%.11 Another McKinsey study sug-gests that logistics companies will generate$1.3 to$2 trillion per year for the next 20 years in economic value by adopting AI into their processes.12,13 But the impacts of AI go beyond cost savings and also comprise efficiency gains,environmental benefits,and improved customer experience:Cost Savings:AI-driven route optimization reduces travel distances,idle time,and fuel costs,leading to substantial savings in operational expenses.14,15 Implementing AI algorithms for workforce efficiency can automate tasks,streamline planning processes,and reduce manual effort,ultimately cutting down on overtime costs.16 Improved Efficiency:AI enhances operational efficiency by optimizing routes,automating critical tasks,and increasing delivery capa-city without the need for extra resources.17 AI-powered systems streamline logistics operations,improve deli-very times,reduce idle time,and boost productivity.18OutputBenefits and impact:The best is yet to comeReduced Environmental Impact:Optimized routes through AI result in less fuel usage,reduced emissions,and contribute to sustainability efforts and environmental conservation.19 By minimizing distance traveled and eliminating unnecessary idling or detours,AI-driven route planning helps in reducing the carbon footprint of logistics operations.20Enhanced Customer Experience:Quicker routes and on-time deliveries due to AI-powe-red route planning lead to happier customers,improved satisfaction levels,and increased customer retention.21 AI-driven chatbots in customer service provide instant support,answer queries efficiently,and enhance overall customer satisfaction by reducing response times.222024 0716Challenges:Will invest-ments pay off?5Whitepaperstatworx2024 08Data and AI in logisticsData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 0817While AI offers numerous benefits,implementing it also comes with challenges that must be considered befo-rehand.With AI,logistics and transportation companies can benefit immensely,amongst others,from improved efficiency and cost savings.However,AI projects can also come with a high price tag a problem especially if costs were not planned to their final extent.Moreo-ver,AI projects can(and may even be meant to)cause workforce displacement with subsequent legal costs,declining staff satisfaction,and other related issues.Doing AI requires extensive and intensive training for the whole company which takes time and costs money.Ethical considerations play a role when implementing AI,not only when AI takes on the jobs of humans.The need for human-AI collaboration must be carefully managed to ensure a successful and responsible integration of AI.Lastly and most importantly,data quality,data privacy,and data protection are crucial factors for all AI projects.If the requirements in these realms arent met,any pro-ject will likely fail.According to PwCs“2024 Digital Trends in Operations Survey“23,which gathered insights from 600 operations and supply chain officers,69%of these professionals indicate that their technology investments have not fully realized the anticipated business outcomes.The survey highlights that 45%of CEOs fear their companies may become nonviable within a decade if current trajecto-ries are maintained.Key challenges identified include integration complexity(30%),technologies not meeting expectations(28%),and deficiencies in people capabi-lities(27%),among others.Additionally,while the majo-rity of companies are dabbling in generative AI,only 20%report its widespread use in their operations.There is also a noted lack of emphasis on digital skills develop-ment,with less than a third of respondents treating it as a high priority.Furthermore,59%cite multiple factors for their underperforming technology investments in opera-tions.ChallengesChallenges:Will investments pay off?Cost of IntegrationIntegrating AI into existing systems can be expensive due to the need for customized solutions and speciali-zed hardware.The initial investment includes not only the cost of AI systems but also the infrastructure required to support them.24,25 Operational Costs AI systems require a significant amount of energy to ope-rate and maintain.The components,such as processors and batteries,can be costly to replace.Additionally,AI machines may increase utility bills as they can operate for extended periods without breaks.26 Workforce Displacement As AI automates tasks,there is an inevitable reduction in the workforce.Companies must address the challenge of job displacement,either by finding new roles for affected employees or by releasing them.This transition must be managed carefully to minimize the impact on employees livelihoods.27 Training and AdaptabilityImplementing AI requires training for the workforce to adapt to new technologies.This training incurs additional costs and may initially reduce business efficiency as emp-loyees learn to work with AI systems.28 Continue on next pageData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 0818ChallengesData Privacy and SecurityAI systems rely heavily on data,raising concerns about data privacy and security.Ensuring the protection of sensitive information is a significant challenge that com-panies must address.29 Ethical Considerations The expansion of AI raises ethical questions,such as the extent to which AI should replace human jobs and the safety considerations of AI in transportation,espe-cially considering accidents involving semi-autonomous vehicles.30 Human-AI Collaboration While AI can predict and automate,it does not eliminate the need for human judgment.Human expertise is still required to make decisions based on AI-generated data and insights,ensuring a balanced approach to managing supply chains.31 Scalability and Customization AI solutions must be scalable for long-term success,and the customization of AI systems can be a complex and costly process.Companies must work with AI ser-vice providers to ensure that the technology meets their specific needs.32 Decentralization Decentralization,i.e.having many regional branches,brings logistics closer to customers,which is bene-ficial.Yet,AI projects thrive on centralized and stan-dardized processes,resources,and companywide accessible data.33 Implementing an AI project at multiple,spread-out branches within one company requi-res extensive communication,a strong digital infra-structure,data governance and management.Data and AI teams must grasp the various needs across branches to identify unifying elements.Legal changesThe German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act(Lieferket-tensorgfaltspflichtengesetz)and a planned EU Supply Chain Directive pose administrative challenges in terms of reporting,drafting contracts with suppliers,and risk management.34 A lack of clear regulation and legal uncer-tainty creates an investment-unfriendly environment,putting AI automation on the back burner.19Use Cases:High complexity,high reward6Whitepaperstatworx2024 08Data and AI in logisticsData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 0820Four exemplary use cases from around the globe show a glimpse of what is already being accomplished in logis-tics,warehouse management,and transportation with AI.Use Case I:Route optimization that saves up to$30 million Challenge:A German manufacturing company faced inefficiencies in its supply chain operations,leading to increased costs and operational challenges.Solution:The company integrated a comprehensive data roadmap aligned with its business objectives.By lever-aging AI technologies,they implemented a solution for route optimization to streamline operations effectively.Impact:The German manufacturing company achieved significant cost savings of up to$30 million.The imple-mentation of AI-driven solutions not only optimized rou-tes and improved delivery efficiency but also enhanced accuracy in demand forecasting and inventory manage-ment.This resulted in a more streamlined supply chain operation,reduced costs,and increased overall effi-ciency for the company.35 Use Case II:Maximizing warehouse efficiency by 60%Challenge:A multinational logistics provider struggled with optimizing warehouse operations,particularly during seasonal peaks and variable demand.Manual processes caused bottlenecks,leading to protracted order fulfill-ment times and climbing labor costs.Inefficient space use in warehouses further limited storage and throug-hput.Additionally,manual inventory tracking led to inac-curacies and stockouts,delaying replenishment.Solution:The company created an automated system for picking and packing,incorporating machine learning and Use Casesrobotics.This system adjusted resource use in real-time,based on demand forecasts and historical data,optimi-zing labor and warehouse space.They also introduced AI for precise inventory management,enabling proactive stock replenishment and seamless operations.Impact:The results were significant:Order fulfillment times were cut by 50%,boosting operational efficiency.Labor costs fell by 30%,yielding considerable savings.Storage capacity utilization rose by 60%,thus maximizing warehouse efficiency and throughput.36 Use Cases:High complexity,high rewardContinue on next pageData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 0821Use CasesUse Case III:Raising efficiency of multi-order picking from 58%to 94%Challenge:A leading global logistics provider was tas-ked with planning a new warehouse for a client,aiming to process 13,000 order lines or 750 picking cartons daily.The project required developing an optimal algorithm for multi-order picking,considering workers would use trol-leys for picking goods.Solution:Experts devised an algorithm ensuring straight picking routes for operators to minimize unnecessary backtracking.They utilized a simulation model to validate this algorithm,incorporating real historical data to opti-mize operators routes based on criteria such as maximi-zing carton quantity per tour and article overlap.Impact:Implementing the suggested layout configu-ration,equipment,and movement algorithm resulted in a significant improvement in trolley utilization rates,increasing from 58%to 94%.These results demonstrate the investment efficiency to the client and provide insights for optimizing warehouse layout,article distribu-tion,and determining the ideal balance between service level and staff workload.37 Use Case IV:Cutting downtime and costs with Predic-tive MaintenanceChallenge:A prominent US refrigerated storage spe-cialist struggled with maintaining their fleet due to the unstructured and siloed nature of vast operational data.This complexity hindered their ability to proactively schedule maintenance,which was crucial for enhancing customer service.Solution:The storage specialist collaborated with a team of experts to create a predictive analytics infrastructure utilizing Microsoft Azures services.This partnership faci-litated the integration of IoT devices and the streamli-ning of data management.Additionally,machine learning models were deployed to predict potential equipment failures and calculate the remaining useful life of the fleets components.Impact:The adoption of the predictive maintenance model yielded significant benefits:Precise predictions allowed for preemptive maintenance strategies,reducing equipment downtime.Cost efficiencies were realized by addressing potential problems before they escalated into critical failures.Operational efficiency was boosted by the timely scheduling of necessary repairs,which in turn elevated customer satisfaction levels.New revenue opportunities emerged for the client,enabling them to offer predictive maintenance services to their customer base.38Data and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 08222024 0822WhitepaperstatworxFuturistic advances and down-to-earth upgradesThe future of data science and AI in logistics will continue to be shaped by emerging trends,technological advance-ments,and potential transformative impacts.At statworx we subscribe to the following outlook:Autonomous Vehicles:One of the most significant impacts of AI in transportation is the development of self-driving cars and trucks.These vehicles use AI and machine learning algorithms to perceive their environment,make decisions,and navigate without human intervention,pro-mising to increase safety and efficiency on the roads.39 Traffic Management:AI assists in managing traffic pat-terns by predicting congestion and optimizing traffic flow.This application of AI can significantly reduce travel time and contribute to safer road conditions.40 Vehicle Maintenance:Through AI,its possible to moni-tor vehicle performance and predict maintenance needs.This predictive maintenance helps in reducing downtime and saving costs associated with repairs.41 Customer Service:In the transportation industry,AI impro-ves customer service by providing real-time information on schedules,delays,and allowing for seamless interac-tions through chatbots and virtual assistants.42 Big Data Analytics:Big data is being used more than ever to predict supply chain risks and make the supply chains more agile,helping businesses anticipate disruptions and opti-mize operations for resilience.43 IoT for Supply Chain Visibility:IoT technology is crucial for connecting every link in the supply chain,providing trans-parency,efficiency,and responsiveness.Innovations like smart labels are expected to significantly impact logis-tics.44Human-AI Collaboration:AI is evolving to impact various logistics areas,such as route planning,demand forecas-ting,and asset management.The collaboration of humans Data and AI in logisticsand AI will lead to smarter inventory management and the standardization of tools like computer vision in logistics.45 Sustainability as a Priority:Sustainable logistics are becoming a key economic factor,with a focus on green solutions like alternative fuels and electric vehicles.AI can enhance efficiency and sustainability by optimizing opera-tions and reducing resource consumption.46 Conclusion:The sweet spot of human-machine co-operationAI is poised to become the most pivotal force in logistics and supply chain management as digitization and auto-mation progress.Over the next few years,we can expect to see an increased incorporation of AI into a wide range of logistics processes,enhancing sustainability through more efficient,energy-saving operations that are mind-ful of natural resource conservation.Furthermore,the transformative impact of AI in logistics promises to increase efficiency,reduce costs,and improve custo-mer experiences.Nonetheless,the sector must navigate challenges including data privacy,cybersecurity,and the associated costs of technological upgrades and work-force training.It is essential that AI integration is con-ducted in a manner that supports rather than supplants human labor.The first insights into the trajectory of AI-driven improvements are set to come to the fore in the immediate future,facilitating innovation and setting new standards for the movement of goods and people.ConclusionData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 0823Creating valuefrom Data&AI.Facts and figuresAbout usWe are more than just a service provider-we are your partner for the entire AI transformation.We advise,we develop,we educate-for more than 10 years,in over 500 data&AI projects and for over 100 clients from almost all industries.Our experts understand which tech trends will really make your company better.As a leading consulting and development company for Data and AI,statworx supports companies in all aspects of digital transformation-from strategic AI consulting and targeted AI training to the development of state-of-the-art AI solutions.Some of our customers2024 0823WhitepaperstatworxData and AI in logisticsData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 0824We help companies in the logistics industry to use data and AI effectively to improve products and services,optimize processes and identify new business models.Start your journey into the future with Data and AIDaniel LttgauHead of AI DevelopmentYour contact personDaniel Lttgau is responsible for AI Develop-ment at statworx and is an expert in the use of AI to generate added value for compa-nies.The logistics industry is facing a digital revolution in which AI and data offer enor-mous potential for optimization.We analyze your existing processes,develop targe-ted measures and help you to efficiently design and sustainably integrate the use of AI throughout the entire supply chain.CONTACT USOur offersSolution and DevelopmentDevelopment of customized data and AI solutions.SERVICESInfrastructure and EngineeringDevelopment of data infrastructures,-pipelines and platforms.SERVICESStrategy and ConsultingStrategic consulting around data and AI in companies.SERVICESTrainings and UpskillingData and AI trainingfor companies.SERVICESStarter OfferingsData and AI entry-level offers.SERVICESData and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 08252024 0825WhitepaperstatworxSourcesSources and further information on the content of this whitepaper.Data and AI in logistics1 https:/unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ditcinf2022d1_en.pdf2 https:/ https:/ https:/is.gd/ylyIdW5 https:/www.codept.de/blog/5-ways-to-use-artificial-intelligence-in-logistics6 https:/www.codept.de/blog/5-ways-to-use-artificial-intelligence-in-logistics7 https:/www.codept.de/blog/5-ways-to-use-artificial-intelligence-in-logistics8 https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/tms- https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/tms- https:/ https:/tms- https:/is.gd/h51nVX24 https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/www.brisklogic.co/benefits-challenges-of-ai-in-the-supply-chain/32 https:/ https:/is.gd/5vW0Mj34 https:/www.dvz.de/dossiers/zukunft-der-lieferketten/detail/news/lieferkettengesetz-wie-ki-bei-der-umsetzung-hilft.html35 https:/ https:/ 37 https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 08262024 0826WhitepaperstatworxData and AI in logisticsGrafiken:https:/ in:https:/ https:/ zitiert in:https:/ https:/ https:/ and further information on the content of this whitepaper.Data and AI in logisticsWhitepaperstatworx2024 08272024 0827Whitepaperstatworxstatworx GmbHHanauer Landstr.15060314 Frankfurt am M 49(0)69 6783 067-51Data and AI in logistics
2024-12-29
27页
5星级
罗兰贝格：预见2026：中国行业趋势报告（90页）.pdf
智源研究院：2026十大AI技术趋势报告（34页）.pdf
中国互联网协会：智能体应用发展报告（2025）（124页）.pdf
三个皮匠报告：2025银发经济生态：中国与全球实践白皮书（150页）.pdf
三个皮匠报告：2025中国商业航天市场洞察报告-中国商业航天新格局全景洞察（25页）.pdf
国声智库：全球AI创造力发展报告2025（77页）.pdf
中国电子技术标准化研究院：2025知识图谱与大模型融合实践案例集（354页）.pdf
三个皮匠报告：2025中国情绪消费市场洞察报告（24页）.pdf
中国银行：2026中国高净值人群财富管理白皮书（66页）.pdf
亿欧智库：2025全球人工智能技术应用洞察报告（43页）.pdf
0731-84720580
商务合作：really158d
友链申请 (QQ)：1737380874
最新报告
中英对照
全文搜索
报告精选
PDF上传翻译
多格式文档互转
入驻&报告售卖
会员权益
机构报告
券商研报
财报库
专题合集
英文报告
数据图表
会议报告
其他资源
研报
新质生产力
DeepSeek
低空经济
大模型
AI Agent
AI Infra
具身智能
自动驾驶
宠物
银发经济
人形机器人
企业出海
算力
微短剧
薪酬
白皮书
创新药
行业分析
个股研究
年报财报
IPO招股书
会议纪要
宏观策略
政策法规
其他
人工智能
信息科技
互联网
消费经济
汽车交通
电商零售
传媒娱乐
医疗健康
投资金融
能源环境
地产建筑
传统产业
英文报告
其它
行业聚焦
芯片产业
热点概念
全球咨询智库
人工智能
500强
新质生产力
会议峰会
新能源汽车
企业年报
互联网
公司研究
行业综观
消费教育
科技通信
医药健康
人力资源
投资金融
汽车产业
物流地产
电子商务
传统产业
传媒营销
其它
十五五规划系列报告合集（共48套打包）
2026低空经济/低空产业报告合集（共47套打包）
AI、科技与通信
广告、传媒与营销
消费、零售与支付
HR、文化与旅游
金融、保险与投资
能源、环境与工业
医疗制药与大健康
物流、地产与建筑
其他行业
AI ▪ 科技 ▪ 通信
数字化
金融财经
智能制造
电商传媒
地产建筑
医疗医学
能源化工
其他行业
收藏
下载
2026-02-02
AI查数
行业数据
政策法规
商业模式
产业链
竞争格局
市场规模
产业概述
其它
2026年
AI读财报
年报
一季报
半年报
三季报
IPO招股书
社会责任报告
A股
IPO申报
港股
美股&全球
新三板
微信扫码登录
手机快捷登录
账号登录
