人工智能对产出和通货膨胀的影响.pdf

1、RestrictedThe impact of artificial intelligence on output and inflationIaki Aldasoro,Sebastian Doerr,Leonardo Gambacorta and Daniel Rees(BIS)Views are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Bank for International Settlements.Restricted2The rise of artificial intelligenceAI has the pot

2、ential to be“the most important general-purpose technology of our era”(Brynjolfsson et al(2023)Recent inroads of generative AI in everyday applications have triggered hopes of widespread efficiency gains Productivity gains for workers(Brynjolfsson et al(2023);Noy and Zhang(2023);Peng et al(2023)Impr

3、ovements in sales&employment growth,productivity&innovation for firms(Yang(2022);Czarnitzki et al(2023),Babina et al(2024)By transforming occupational tasks,altering corporate strategies,and affecting production efficiency,AI may have significant consequences for labour markets,firms,and whole indus

4、tries Broad agreement:positive for productivity(1-1.5%range),GPT Restricted3Research question and methodological approachWhat are the effects of AI on aggregate output and inflation,as well as on output in different sectors?OutlineConstruct industry-level measure of exposure to AI(AIIE)at the 2-digi

5、t NAICS level,building on Felten et al(2021)Calibrate multi-sector macroeconomic model in which AI is a positive productivity shock with a differential impact across sectors Allocate the shock across sectors using the AIIE measureInvestigate effects on macro-aggregates§ors;use model for counterf

6、actual analyses Effects of AI could“unanticipated“or“anticipated”by agentsRestricted4AI increases GDP,consumption and investment(unanticipated)Restricted5Initially disinflationary,AI over time leads to inflationRestricted6When anticipated,investment takes time to pick upRestricted7 and the dynamics