在一个异质性的世界中制定的最优宏观经济政策.pdf

1、OPTIMALMACROECONOMICPOLICIES IN AHETEROGENEOUSWORLDJames BullardFederal Reserve Bank of St.LouisRiccardo DiCecioFederal Reserve Bank of St.LouisAarti SinghUniversity of SydneyJacek SudaNarodowy Bank Polski(NBP)The Future of Macroeconomic PolicyNorges Bank,the IMF and IMF Economic ReviewJune 16,2023O

2、slo,NorwayAny views expressed here are our own and do not necessarily reflect those of the FOMC or the NBP.1 Introduction2 BENCHMARK MODELSThe macroeconomics world has benefited from having simplebenchmark models from which fruitful discussions can belaunched.1980s-1990s:real business cycle modelsPr

3、escott(QR,1986).2000s-present:New Keynesian modelsWoodford(2003).Today,we want to be more granular in order to be able to discusshow macroeconomic policies impact different portions of theincome distribution.But what would optimal macroeconomic policy look like in aheterogeneous world?3 ABENCHMARK M

4、ODELWe study a simple(paper-and-pencil solution)benchmark DSGEheterogeneous-agent life-cycle model.The equilibrium features Gini coefficients approaching those inthe U.S.data.The model is meant to be complementary to models in theHANK literature.The subtext in this talk is that models in this class

5、represent,broadly,the current and future direction of macroeconomics.The model features three aggregate shocks as well as permanentand temporary idiosyncratic risk.Macroeconomic policymakers in the model have tools to counterthe frictions in the economy.A welfare theorem states the sense in which th

6、ese policies canachieve an optimal allocation of resources.4 MODEL-RECOMMENDED MACRO POLICIESThe model equilibrium recommends the following“fourhorsemen”macroeconomic monetary-fiscal policy mix:As in the NK model,the monetary authority should react toaggregate shocks each period and strive to achiev