有限的能源供应、太阳黑子和货币政策.pdf

1、Limited energy supply,sunspots,and monetary policyIMF/Norges Bank/IMFER-OsloNils Gornemann1,Sebastian Hildebrand2and Keith Kuester3June 15,20231Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System2University of Bonn3University of Bonn,CEPR,ECONtributeThe views expressed herein are the authors.They do no

2、t necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Governors or the Federal Reserve System.1MotivationEurope has seen a monumental change in the external environment shortages of imported goods,energy most recently volatile import/energy pricesShould this affect the way we think about monetary policy?A

3、ctive or passive response?2What we do provide conditions under which self-fulfilling fluctuations could arisefrom supply constraints on an input factor(here:energy)how can monetary policy can prevent those fluctuations?pencil-and-paper calibrated model3New Keynesian small open economyBlanchard/Gal(2

4、009)meets Bilbiie(2021)heterogeneous households(two-types)consume goods and energy produce goods using labor and energy,nominal rigidities energy either owned domestically or imported from ForeignWe deviate as regards the energy environment inelastic supply of energy energy price moves flexibly to c

5、lear the domestic market for energy4Energy-price-economic-activity feedback loop closed economySuppose non-fundamental beliefs of high energy prices high marginal costs costs not passed on(nominal rigidities)depresses markups redistribute to high MPC hh aggregate demand rises unless monetary policy

6、curbs domestic demand enough production rises and this requires energy energy price responds to demand conditionsvalidated.5Energy-price-economic-activity feedback loop open economySuppose non-fundamental beliefs of high energy prices with Foreign ownership high marginal costs costs not passed on(no