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2025 Retail&logistics trends:Half-year check-inReportWin at CheckoutGuide2025 Retail&logistics trendsReport2025 Retail&logistics trends:Half-year check-inA reality check for European retail&logistics 2Table of contentsIntroduction 3Unified commerce 4Progress vs.expectations Industry movements Unexpected developments Mid-year status&H2 outlook Social shopping 8Trajectory vs.expectations Regional dynamicsConsumer behavior vs.platform performanceH1 2025 surprisesOutlook for H2 2025Sustainable shopping 14Consumer and industry activity Key developments so farConsumer expectationsOutlook for H2 2025Last-mile logistics 19Current pressures and adaptive measuresMeeting customer expectationsInnovation&unexpected turnsOutlook for H2 2025Global e-commerce&cross-border delivery 24Continued global e-commerce growthCross-border boomingRegional trends Challenges&developments Outlook for H2 2025AI and automation 30Surge in AI adoptionWarehouse&last-mile automation Generative AI&decision support Challenges and adoption barriersOutlook for 2025 H2Regulatory pressures 35The regulatory impactBeyond sustainabilityOutlook for H2 2025Whats next 41References 443Introduction2025 was always going to be a pivotal year for ecommerce and logistics.When we launched our Next Retail Revolution predictions in late 2024,we set out a bold vision for how retailers,carriers,and logistics leaders could adapt to seismic shifts in consumer expectations,technology,and sustainability demands.Six months into 2025,how are those predictions holding up?This mid-year check-in looks at what we got right,what surprised us,and where the second half of 2025 is heading,with practical recommendations for staying ahead.Drawing on fresh data,real-world case studies,and nShifts own work with retailers and carriers across Europe and beyond,this is your 2025 roadmap to turning big trends into tangible value.Introduction 4Unified commerceUnified commerce#1 What we said In our original report,we identified unified commerce as more than just an industry buzzword.It is becoming a make-or-break capability.As consumers move fluidly between channels,they no longer see a difference between“online”and“in store.”What matters is one experience,one promise,and one seamless journey.We predicted that 2025 would be the year retailers invested seriously in building this infrastructure,breaking down internal silos,connecting backend systems to front-end experiences,and unifying data to better serve every customer,everywhere.But we also warned that many businesses were still treating omnichannel as a marketing campaign,not an operating model.Without connected systems(including logistics)even the best customer journeys would fall apart at the point of delivery.5Unified commerce Hows it going Progress vs.expectations Retailers widely acknowledge unified commerce as crucial,but execution has lagged.As of early 2025,only 17%of surveyed retailers consider their unified commerce capabilities“mature,”while 38%are actively advancing initiativesi.This indicates incremental progress but slower than hoped nearly half still lack a clear roadmap to unify stores,online,and back-end systems.The gap between vision and reality persisted through H1 2025,especially for mid-tier retailers struggling with siloed data and legacy IT.Only 17%of retailers rate their unified commerce capabilities as mature.6Unified commerceIndustry movements Top retail“unified commerce”performers are pulling ahead.A 2025 benchmark found only 5%of retailers achieved true unified commerce excellence,but those leaders(including brands like IKEA and Nike)report 31%lower fulfillment costs and 24%higher customer satisfaction than othersii.Theyve unified inventory visibility and checkout experiences across channels,yielding benefits like 18%lower cart abandonment and higher sales conversioniii.For example,European retailers are increasingly linking store and online operations e.g.Zaras integration of store inventory for online orders to provide a single customer view.These moves validate the promise of unified commerce to boost profitability(99%of retailers believe a well-executed strategy lifts profit).Unexpected developments A notable development in early 2025 is the rising bar for“unified”experiences.Capabilities that were differentiators in 2023 became baseline expectations by 2025iv.Shoppers now fluidly hop between social,marketplace,and in-store channels,pressuring retailers to catch up.Many retailers were caught off guard by how quickly consumer expectations evolved.For instance,multi-channel shoppers spend 15%more per order,but only if brands can deliver a consistent journey.Some retailers struggled with this pace;nearly one-third admit theyre falling behind customer omnichannel expectations,leading to missed sales.Mid-year status&H2 outlook Overall,unified commerce progressed modestly since late 2024.More retailers piloted unified platforms,but many plateaued at“omnichannel lite.”Looking ahead to H2 2025,experts predict accelerated investment in integration tech and data unification as cost pressures demand efficiency.We expect more mergers of e-commerce and store teams and upgrades to retail software so that by end of 2025 a greater share of retailers move from planning to executing unified commerce.Especially in Europe,where omnichannel is now the baseline,retailers will prioritize connecting touchpoints(stores,web,mobile,social)into one ecosystem to stay competitive understanding that customers dont care about systems,they care that it feels like one experience.Top performers cut fulfillment costs by 31%.Multi-channel shoppers now spend 15%more per order.7Unified commercenShift recommendations Focus on building a consistent customer promise across all channels.That means more than just branding or UX it includes checkout options,delivery speed,and returns experience.Prioritize integration across fulfillment,carrier,and customer comms systems.Break down internal silos so data flows smoothly from order to delivery.Use delivery as a bridge between channels.When online,store,and mobile orders are fulfilled through a connected system,you enable features like click-and-collect,ship-from-store,and real-time tracking across the entire journey.nShift can help unify the experience through pre-integrated carrier options,seamless checkout modules,and end-to-end visibility that connects every touchpoint.For example,Princess,a Nordic home goods retailer,introduced click-and-collect and other hybrid fulfillment options using nShift.The result:in-store and online sales began to complement each other,doubling total sales once delivery operations became fully integrated.8Social shoppingSocial shopping#2 What we said We predicted that in 2025,shopping would no longer be confined to stores or even traditional ecommerce websites.Instead,it would unfold in real time,in peoples social feeds,wherever they scroll,watch,or chat.Driven by Gen Z and Millennials,platforms like TikTok,Instagram,and YouTube would increasingly blur the line between content and commerce.From livestream shopping to creator-led recommendations and frictionless in-app purchases,social platforms would become powerful sales engines.But our prediction came with a caveat:its not enough to be present on these platforms.Brands must match the experience with equal strength in fulfillment:whether someone buys from a livestream,a reel,or a creators recommendation,they still expect the same smooth,fast,and flexible delivery journey.In short,we forecast that social commerce would surge in 2025;but,to turn these moments into lasting loyalty,retailers would need delivery options and infrastructure that work just as well as the platform hype.9Social shopping Hows it going Trajectory vs.expectations Social commerce continued to grow worldwide from Dec 2024 to June 2025,though Western markets saw a more moderate uptick than the explosive growth seen in Asia.Global social commerce sales are on track to reach$877 billion in 2025(up 15%YoY)vi,and forecasters still project the channel topping$1 trillion by 2028.In Europe,social shopping expanded 21%year-over-year to an estimated$146 billion in 2025vii,beating overall e-commerce growth.This suggests the trend progressed roughly as expected,albeit with regional nuances.Platforms like TikTok,Instagram,and Facebook pushed new shopping features,and more brands experimented with in-app shops and livestream sales.Social commerce in Europe is worth$146B in 2025( 21%YoY).10Social shoppingRegional dynamicsEuropean adoption of social shopping,while rising,lags other regions.Strict data privacy rules and strong brick-and-mortar traditions meant Europes social commerce penetration($121B in 2024 to$146B in 2025)grew robustly but not as explosively as in China or the USviii.For instance,live shopping events are gaining traction in the UK(a leader in Europe for live commerce),but cultural preferences and EU regulations like the Digital Services Act or The Digital Markets Act have somewhat slowed the pace.By contrast,the United States is a frontrunner in social commerce among Western markets,expected to exceed$90B in social sales in 2025(up from$65B in 2023)ix.The fastest growth is among younger consumers:Millennials and Gen Z are driving this channel,projected to account for over 60%of global social commerce spend by 2025.Gen Z in particular now frequently shops via TikTok Shop or Instagram links(e.g.40%of Gen Z social shoppers in a survey had purchased on TikTok Shop).40%of Gen Z social shoppers have purchased through TikTok Shop.11Social shoppingConsumer behavior vs.platform performanceSocial platforms are now integral to product discovery:82%of consumers use social media to research products.TikTok and Instagram have become virtual malls for Gen Z:over half of Gen Z consumers report TikTok influences their purchasesxi.TikToks own data claims 75%of users are likely to buy through TikTok Shop.During H1 2025,TikTok expanded its shopping features in Europe and the US,spurring more impulse buys via viral videos.Meanwhile,Metas platforms pivoted strategies.Instagram shifted from a dedicated“Shop”tab to integrating shopping in Reels and posts,and WhatsApp rolled out catalog ordering in some regions.Notably,YouTubes partnership with Shopify simplified buying from creator videos,tapping the stat that 89%of viewers trust YouTube creators for product info.Despite these efforts,Western consumers remain somewhat cautious:concerns about fraud,product quality,and privacy on social platforms kept some from fully embracing checkout-on-social.Surveys indicate trust and ease of returns are key:H1 2025 surprisesAn unexpected headwind was European regulatory scrutiny on big social platformsxiii.In early 2025,the EUs enforcement of DSA/DMA rules forced greater transparency in social commerce.For example,the European Commission probed TikTok and Meta for potentially anti-competitive practices in social shopping.This did not derail growth,but added compliance costs and may slow new feature rollouts.Another development was the entry of new players:fast-fashion apps Shein and Temu leveraged social media tactics to gain European market share,blurring the line between traditional e-commerce and social commerce as they encourage sharing and influencer promotions.Also notable was some pullback on live commerce by Western firms:e.g.Meta had ended live shopping on Facebook by 2024,reflecting that live-stream sales havent yet replicated Chinese-level success in the West.Outlook for H2 2025The social shopping trend is expected to advance further.Experts predict continued double-digit growth globally(projected 1112GR through 2030)xiv.In Europe,social commerce should keep gaining share as platforms adapt to regulations country-specific approaches will matter(e.g.more influencer-led sales in France,multi-platform strategies in Spain).58%of shoppers say a seamless return or free delivery would encourage more cross-border social buysxii.12Social shoppingWe anticipate more integration between e-commerce and social:Retailers will invest in TikTok ads,in-app storefronts,and partnerships with influencers to meet consumers where they scroll.Live shopping may see a resurgence via YouTube or niche apps as technology improves.By late 2025,social commerce will likely represent an even higher portion of holiday sales,and more brands will treat social as a core sales channel(not just marketing).13Social shoppingnShift recommendations Design your fulfillment process for spontaneity.Social-driven purchases often follow emotional triggers,therefore slow,unclear delivery undermines the entire experience.Ensure mobile-first,embedded delivery options.Whether buying through Instagram,TikTok,or a marketplace,customers expect flexible delivery and return choices without leaving the platform.Use delivery as a bridge between channels.Support high volume,fragmented order flows.Social commerce often leads to dispersed,low-value baskets which demand fulfillment thats fast and cost-effective at scale.With nShift,brands can handle these demands through automated booking,scalable multi-carrier delivery,and branded tracking links that extend the experience beyond the feed.For example,ICANIWILL,a Swedish D2C sportswear brand,used nShift Track to enhance the post-purchase journey with personalized tracking reducing order inquiries and increasing customer engagement with branded touchpoints.14Sustainable shoppingSustainable shopping#3 What we said Sustainability is no longer a niche preference.Instead,its becoming a widespread expectation.Consumers,especially younger ones,are demanding action.At the same time,regulators across Europe are introducing tough new requirements,like CSRD and emissions transparency mandates.We projected that 2025 would be a tipping point:sustainability would stop being a story and start being a standard.Retailers and logistics providers would need to respond not just with brand messaging,but with operational change:offering lower-emissions delivery options,enabling circular models like returns and recommerce,and tracking environmental impact in ways that could be reported to stakeholders and regulators alike.15Sustainable shopping Hows it going Consumer and industry activity Sustainability in shopping remained a major priority but saw a mix of progress and plateau from late 2024 into mid-2025.On the consumer side,surveys show a solid majority still claim to value eco-friendly products e.g.nearly 66%of consumers say theyre willing to pay more to brands with positive environmental impact.66%of consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable brands.Actual behavior,however,was tempered by economic realities.In Europes ongoing cost-of-living squeeze,some shoppers pulled back on sustainable choices if they carried a price premium.Notably,a McKinsey studyxv found the share of consumers actively seeking more sustainable products decreased in 2024,as more people felt it was too expensive or made no difference.Still,core sustainable behaviors persist:as Deloitte recently found,73%recycle regularly,61%limit single-use plastics,56%repaired products instead of replacing indicating enduring commitment where it doesnt hurt the walletxvi.In response to consumer activity,retailers and brands continued to ramp up sustainability initiatives,driven both by consumer expectation and regulatory pressure.By 2025,93%of independent retailers said sustainability would be a focus over the next year.16Sustainable shoppingIn practice,H1 2025 saw more companies investing in greener packaging(e.g.reusable or minimal packaging in e-commerce)and exploring circular models.The resale and rental market boomed:second-hand retail is growing rapidly(the global resale market on track to exceed$1 trillion by 2030),and more retailers launched recommerce platforms.For example,major European fashion retailers like H&M and Zalando expanded their resale sections,and rental services for fashion and electronics gained traction,reflecting a“second-hand and rental”boomxvii.These efforts align with consumers thriftiness and eco-consciousness,effectively killing two birds with one stone:saving money and reducing waste.Key developments so farA significant development was the tightening of sustainability reporting and regulations.The EUs Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive(CSRD)kicked in for many companies 2024 fiscal year,meaning the first detailed sustainability reports are due by 2025.This drove companies to frantically gather data on carbon footprints,supply chain sourcing,and ESG metrics.Many struggled with the complexity and cost of compliance across different countriesxviii.Nonetheless,this regulatory push is forcing real action.For example,firms began measuring Scope 3 emissions(from suppliers and logistics)and setting science-based targets.Another development:some retailers quietly deprioritized certain green initiatives due to cost pressures.A survey revealed 27%of e-commerce businesses cut back on sustainability efforts in the past year to control costsxix.So,while sustainability is a stated priority,economic strain led to tough choices(e.g.using cheaper packaging or fewer eco projects)for a subset of firms.17Sustainable shoppingFinally,consumer skepticism grew the“greenwashing”backlash meant shoppers now demand proof.Brands faced greater scrutiny to back up sustainability claims with data,contributing to the need for transparent reporting.Consumer expectationsConsumers in 2025 expect retailers to enable sustainable choices for them.Around 75%of Europeans say they want brands to offer sustainable packaging by default,and 67%want“lower-emission delivery options”at checkout.Indeed,some countries(e.g.France,the Netherlands)began mandating or incentivizing low-emission last-mile delivery,making green shipping a norm.Importantly,shoppers(especially gen Z)want to see their values reflected:they reward brands seen as truly ethical and sustainable.However,affordability remains a major barrier:61%of consumers say cost is the top reason preventing a more sustainable lifestylexx.As inflation bites,many will only choose the sustainable option if price and convenience are comparable.This dynamic kept the sustainable shopping trend progressing,but perhaps below the“hype”level that some 2024 predictions suggested.Outlook for H2 2025We anticipate a renewed push in sustainable shopping initiatives in late 2025 as economic conditions stabilize.Retailers that paused efforts may restart them,especially with holiday season marketing focusing on eco-friendly gifting and carbon-neutral deliveries.Regulatory timelines will tighten:by 2026 even more companies(including SMEs)will fall under CSRD,so H2 2025 will see substantial investments in sustainability tech,auditing,and supply chain transparency.Unexpected innovations could emerge,such as AI-driven sustainability(already,companies are using AI to optimize delivery routes for lower emissions and to recommend sustainable products a trend noted in 2025xxi).Consumers,for their part,are likely to keep demanding sustainability as long as it doesnt break the bank.We expect more retailers to adopt“green default”options(e.g.showing slower but carbon-neutral shipping first)and to emphasize the circular economy trade-in programs,upcycling,and repairs which resonate in a cost-conscious era.In summary,sustainable shopping will progress in the remainder of 2025,not as a fad,but as a fundamental expectation increasingly baked into the retail experience.27%of e-commerce businesses cut back on sustainability efforts in the past year to control costs.18Sustainable shoppingnShift recommendations Give customers visibility and control over delivery impact.Highlight low-emissions delivery options at checkout and make it easy to choose green alternatives.Go beyond offsetting and enable traceable reductions.Compliance and reputation increasingly require auditable CO data,not marketing claims.Connect sustainability to returns.Circular economy efforts must extend to how you handle returns,repairs,and recommerce,not just initial delivery.nShift helps operationalize these goals by surfacing emissions data,integrating green carrier options,and supporting lower-impact delivery and returns flows.For example,Hunkemller switched to paperless returns using nShift,helping meet its environmental goals while streamlining returns for customers across Europe.19Last-mile logisticsLast-mile logistics#4 What we said The delivery moment is becoming the most critical and the most expensive part of the retail experience.We anticipate that last-mile logistics in 2025 will face mounting pressure on two fronts:customer expectations and operational cost.Customers want more:faster,cheaper,greener deliveries,delivered when and where it suits them.But warehouses,3PLs and delivery teams are already operating near capacity and cant absorb rising costs without greater efficiency.We forecast that innovation in last-mile logistics would be a necessity,not a luxury.Warehouses would need automation.Carrier management would need to be dynamic.Data would need to power smarter routing and better customer communication.The challenge:do more,promise more,but spend less.20Last-mile logistics Hows it going Current pressures and adaptive measuresIn 2025,customer loyalty is won or lost in the last mile.The last-mile delivery landscape in early 2025 has been marked by intensifying cost pressures and a scramble to adapt.Rising fuel prices,labor shortages,and high consumer expectations made last-mile the most expensive link in the supply chain accounting for 41%of logistics costs(a stat unchanged from 2024).Research by DS Smith in March 2025 revealed that 84%of e-commerce businesses saw last-mile delivery costs increase in the past year.Alarmingly,many experienced double-digit cost spikes,with some reporting up to 90%higher last-mile costs year-on-year.These surging expenses caused performance to underperform relative to retailers original expectations of efficiency gains.Nearly 4 in 10 e-commerce companies said their profits fell due to last-mile operational challenges,and 35%resorted to raising delivery fees for customers to offset the costsxxii.In short,the promise of ever-faster,cheaper delivery ran into economic reality in H1 2025,forcing difficult trade-offs.To cope,players across Europe and globally took adaptive measures:Automation and route optimization tech have been increasingly deployed e.g.more fleets using dynamic routing algorithms to cut mileage and time.Some warehouses embraced robotics for packing and sorting,aiming to squeeze out efficiency upstream.Out-of-home delivery options(PUDO,lockers)gained traction as a cost-saving strategy:consolidating deliveries to parcel lockers or pickup points reduces failed delivery attempts and last-mile mileage.In Northern Europe,for instance,parcel locker networks expanded rapidly and consumers embraced them(as in Finland where parcel pickups became mainstream)xxiii.Retailers also revisited return policies 59%are reviewing returns processes,and over half imposed higher order thresholds for free deliveryxxiv,essentially nudging customers to batch orders or pay for the convenience of fast delivery.Another adaptation has been fleet electrification and green delivery pilots.Many European carriers and retailers invested in electric vans,cargo bikes,and local micro-fulfillment centers to reduce fuel costs and comply with city emission zones,all while hoping to improve delivery speed.These efforts are steps toward both cost control and sustainability,though electric fleets require upfront investment and infrastructure that are still ramping up.21Last-mile logisticsMeeting customer expectationsDespite internal cost struggles,last-mile operators must face sky-high customer expectations for speed and flexibility.Almost half of global shippers say consumers now expect delivery in under 2 daysxxv,thanks to Amazon Prime and peers setting new norms.In Europe,next-day or two-day delivery is now standard in many categories,putting pressure on carriers to optimize.Surveys show 69%of consumers expect flexible delivery timing(the ability to choose time windows,etc.)and 71%expect real-time tracking and communicationsxxvi.Retailers worry they are not meeting these expectations:less than 39%of businesses felt they had satisfactory sustainable delivery options,and only 30lt they offer sufficient delivery-time flexibility.This expectation gap has direct impacts:a poor delivery experience can cost repeat business.H1 2025 saw several high-profile delivery service hiccups(e.g.holiday backlogs in some regions)leading to consumer frustration.The companies that invested in customer-centric last-mile options(multiple speed choices,easy re-routing,precise tracking)generally fared better in customer satisfaction,even if it meant absorbing higher costs.71%of shoppers expect real-time tracking and updates.22Last-mile logisticsInnovation&unexpected turnsWe also observed an innovation drive in last-mile.AI and automation are increasingly applied to last-mile logistics e.g.pilot programs using AI to consolidate delivery routes across retailers,and warehouse automation yielding up to 2530%productivity gains in order processing.A noteworthy trend is retailers collaborating with competitors for last-mile efficiency,such as sharing delivery networks in rural areas an idea that gained traction as everyone looked to cut costs.Startups and logistics tech firms hosted trials of drone and robot deliveries in select cities,though by mid-2025 these remained niche(regulatory hurdles keep drones limited in Europe,but some US and UK trials delivered small packages autonomously).An unexpected development was how cost pressures forced some sustainability setbacks:as per DS Smiths study,27%of e-commerce businesses said they cut back sustainability initiatives to control last-mile costs for example,using fewer eco-packaging materials or consolidating deliveries even if it lengthened delivery timesxxvii.This shows the difficult balance companies are striking between innovation,green goals,and financial realities.Outlook for H2 2025Last-mile logistics is poised for continued evolution in late 2025.We expect to see wider adoption of cost-saving innovations:more micro-warehousing in urban areas to enable same-day delivery without long drives,increased use of crowd-sourced delivery networks in Europe(akin to Uber-like parcel delivery for flexibility),and stronger push toward consolidation(both in merging delivery volumes and in M&A of delivery startups by larger carriers)xxviii.Crucially,the focus will be on balancing speed with sustainability and cost.Regulators in Europe might introduce incentives or requirements for greener last-mile(e.g.Londons expanded ultra-low emission zone,Dutch cities implementing zero-emission delivery zones in 2025),pushing the sector toward electric fleets and cargo bikes at larger scale.These investments could raise short-term costs but are expected to pay off via lower fuel and compliance costs later.By the end of 2025,we anticipate modest improvements:perhaps a plateauing of last-mile delivery costs as efficiency measures catch up,and incremental gains in delivery speed consistency.The“last mile”remains the toughest mile,but the remainder of 2025 should see the industry a bit more prepared,leveraging tech and new models to keep promises without breaking the bank.The“last mile”remains the toughest mile.23Last-mile logisticsnShift recommendations Invest in delivery orchestration to stay agile.Choose the right carrier,service level,and route for each shipment based on cost,location,and SLAs.Reduce manual processes to gain speed and reduce errors.Automating label generation,routing,and exception handling frees up resources and reduces fulfillment costs.Maintain full delivery visibility for both your team and your customer.Tracking and communication help avoid failed deliveries and reduce WISMO queries.nShift powers this orchestration,connecting you to over 1,000 carriers with built-in automation and data transparency.For example,Flying Tiger Copenhagen used nShift Checkout to roll out PUDO options across multiple countries,resulting in a 20%increase in checkout conversion and greater delivery flexibility.24Global e-commerce&cross-border deliveryGlobal e-commerce&cross-border delivery#5 What we said Borders were fading in the minds of online shoppers.Price,convenience,and access to unique products were driving more consumers to buy internationally.We expected 2025 to be a breakout year for cross-border ecommerce.But going global came with complexity.International delivery promised bigger markets but also bigger risks:customs,duties,delays,and customer uncertainty.Our prediction was that the businesses that mastered cross-border shipping with the right carrier connections,transparent delivery options,and robust tracking would unlock huge growth potential.Those that didnt,would be left behind as shoppers clicked elsewhere.25Global e-commerce&cross-border delivery Hows it going Continued global e-commerce growthDespite economic headwinds,global e-commerce kept growing from late 2024 into 2025,though at a more normalized pace after the pandemic-era surge.Worldwide online retail sales are expected to reach$4.8 trillion in 2025xxix,up from roughly$4.2T in 2023 a healthy growth rate in the high single digits.E-commerces share of total retail is still climbing;by 2025 about 23%of global retail sales will be onlinexxx.Notably,regions like Latin America and Southeast Asia are seeing double-digit growth,while mature markets in Europe grow in the single digits.Europes e-commerce market in particular has matured but continues to expand steadily.Northern Europe boasts some of the highest online shopping rates(84%of the population shops online in countries like Sweden and Denmark)xxxi,whereas Eastern and Southern Europe have room to grow(online shopper penetration still 5060%in places like Greece or Romania).$4.8 trillion in global online retail is forecast for 2025.26Global e-commerce&cross-border deliveryOverall,global e-commerce progressed in line with expectations no collapse post-COVID,and still a driver of retail growth,albeit with slower acceleration than the breakneck 2020-21 period.Cross-border boomingCross-border e-commerce has been a standout component of this growth.Consumers are increasingly comfortable buying from abroad to get better prices or unique products,and merchants are expanding international shipping to capture new customers.According to DHL insightsxxxii,by 2025,59%of global online shoppers have purchased from foreign retailers,and a solid 35%do so at least once per month a significant jump in cross-border activity.1 in 3 shoppers buy from foreign retailers every month.Our original report predicted a cross-border surge,and it indeed materialized:for example,surveys in the UK and US found 70%of shoppers were already buying fashion from overseas by 2024.Shoppers cite cost savings as a big motivation about 52%look internationally for products to find lower pricesxxxiii(with inflation,buying from abroad or direct from manufacturers can mean a better deal).27Global e-commerce&cross-border deliveryCross-border sales were further fueled by improved payment and localization;more websites now offer multi-language,local currency,and duties-inclusive pricing,reducing the friction of international purchases.Regional trends Europe is both a major exporter and importer in e-commerce.Intra-Europe cross-border shopping is common(e.g.a Spanish customer ordering from a German site),helped by EU integration and no customs within the single market.Additionally,European shoppers increasingly buy from Chinese marketplaces(AliExpress,the rise of Temu)for cheap goods,and from the US for certain brands,though delivery times can be longer.A European market intelligence report(Q2 2025)noted that while European social commerce is growing,adoption lags Asia partly due to these cross-border preferences and regulatory complexityxxxiv.Globally,the biggest cross-border e-commerce corridors include ChinaUS/Europe(Chinese platforms selling to the West),USEurope(American brands shipping abroad),and within Asia(e.g.Southeast Asian consumers buying from China/Japan).Interestingly,smaller markets like Africa and the Middle East are emerging as both sources of shoppers and destinations,thanks to social media and improved logistics.Logistics and duties remain the top barriers;high shipping costs,long transit times,and surprise customs fees can deter customers.Many retailers spent early 2025 working on these pain points:partnering with more carriers for international routes,using localized fulfillment(warehousing stock closer to foreign markets),and being transparent about taxes.The EUs new VAT rules(IOSS)and other reforms have simplified some cross-border taxes,encouraging more SMEs to sell EU-wide.Another development is that manufacturers are increasingly selling direct-to-consumer(D2C)globally.Over half of manufacturers are keen to start selling direct by 2025,leveraging cross-border e-commerce to reach customers without intermediaries.This is expanding product choices for consumers but adding competitive pressure for traditional retail.On the consumer side,brand loyalty erosion ties in:shoppers,especially younger ones,will order from an unfamiliar foreign site if the price is right brand loyalty in retail has declined from 77%to 69%in recent years.Cross-border options flourish as consumers shop around the world for value.Challenges&developments Cross-border growth hasnt been without challenges:28Global e-commerce&cross-border deliveryOutlook for H2 2025Expect cross-border e-commerce to keep rising,further integrating the global consumer market.Forecasters see cross-border online sales growing 1015%annually through 2030 globallyxxxv.In the second half of 2025,macroeconomic conditions(exchange rates,trade policies)will play a role:for instance,if the Euro or Pound is strong,Europeans might import more from abroad;if weak,European e-shops may enjoy more export sales.Trade tensions or new tariffs could pose risks,but so far 2025 has seen stable trade relations among major economies.Technologically,improved logistics(faster cross-border shipping lanes,better tracking)and localized customer experience will make cross-border buying increasingly seamless.We anticipate more marketplaces facilitating cross-border trade(Amazon,Alibaba,eBay,etc.,as well as niche players connecting regions).Also,governments may implement digital trade agreements streamlining e-commerce(like discussions of EU-US e-commerce frameworks).By end of 2025,cross-border shopping will be even more commonplace:a shopper in,say,France might routinely order from sites in the UK,US,or China,comparing all options.Effectively,the world is the marketplace.1015%annual growth expected in global cross-border ecommerce through 2030.29Global e-commerce&cross-border deliverynShift recommendations Expand internationally with scalable shipping infrastructure.Adding new markets doesnt have to mean building from scratch the right tech stack can adapt with you.Simplify compliance and customs complexity.Automate declarations and ensure cross-border orders dont become black holes of customer uncertainty.Be transparent with delivery timelines and costs.International shoppers abandon carts when fees or delays are unclear.nShift enables global ecommerce through pre-integrated cross-border carrier connections,customs support,and real-time delivery updates.For example,Millesima,a fine wines seller,expanded to 30 countries by leveraging nShifts platform,avoiding the need to individually integrate each new countrys carriers saving about 40,000 per carrier setup and accelerating international rollout.30AI and automationAI and automation#6 What we said In late 2024,the buzz around AI was deafening.But we believed the real value would come not from headline-grabbing experiments,but from the quiet,meaningful application of AI and automation to real logistics challenges.We forecast that 2025 would be the year businesses moved from pilot to production,using AI to forecast demand,optimize routing,and improve warehouse flows.Meanwhile,automation would continue to free up time and reduce cost in critical areas like booking carriers,printing labels,and handling exceptions.This trend wasnt about replacing people;it was about augmenting them.We believed that the most successful retail and logistics leaders in 2025 would be those who invested in automation now,so they could layer smarter AI capabilities on top later:automate the repetitive,predict everything else.31AI and automation Hows it going Surge in AI adoptionSince the end of 2024,the logistics sector has seen a surge of interest and investment in AI and automation,aligning with broader enterprise trends.By early 2025,41%of supply chain and logistics professionals reported making AI tools a key part of their 2025 innovation strategyxxxvi a significant jump from just a couple of years prior.This means the trend progressed faster than some expected,likely accelerated by the hype around generative AI in late 2024.Businesses are moving beyond pilot projects to real deployments:about one-third of those with AI initiatives are using AI for data visibility and analytics,29%for quality control,and 26%for labor optimization in warehousesxxxvii.These use cases show AIs role in both decision-making(e.g.demand forecasting,inventory placement)and operational efficiency(e.g.spotting defects,optimizing picker routes).The impact is tangible.Companies using AI in logistics have seen up to 1530%reductions in operating costs and improved delivery times according to various reportsxxxviii.AI adoption cuts logistics costs by up to 30%.32AI and automationWarehouse&last-mile automation Automation technology adoption continued to grow steadily through H1 2025.Warehouse automation(robotics,automated sorters,autonomous forklifts)is increasingly common even in mid-sized facilities.Our own research shows automation can yield a 25%productivity boost and 20%space savings in warehouses,and many companies sought those gains to counter labor shortages:collaborative robots(“cobots”)that assist human pickers,and Automated Storage and Retrieval Systems(ASRS)that rapidly move goods,have been prominent investments.On the last-mile front,automation is a bit more experimental a few city pilots of delivery robots and drones were underway.For example,in early 2025,companies like Amazon and Wing expanded drone delivery trials in limited U.S.areas,and some European cities tested sidewalk delivery bots for food and parcel delivery.While not widespread yet,these hint at a future where automation could handle certain delivery routes(especially for small,light packages),potentially improving speed and cutting labor costs if regulations allow.Generative AI&decision support A new development in 2025 is the rise of generative AI applications in logistics.Generative AI(like advanced machine learning models and ChatGPT-style tools)is being used to analyze vast datasets and even simulate supply chain scenarios.For instance,51%of manufacturers plan to use Generative AI for decision-support in back-office and mid-office processesxxxix,which extends to logistics planning(e.g.AI-generated demand forecasts or dynamic contingency plans for disruptions).Logistics managers are beginning to use AI assistants to query data(“Which warehouse can fulfill this order fastest?”)and to automate customer communications(AI-driven chatbots for tracking inquiries).The impact so far is subtle but growing:it promises faster decision-making and the ability to react to exceptions(like a port delay)with AI-suggested alternatives.Delivery robots and drones are being trialed in US and EU cities.33AI and automationChallenges and adoption barriersDespite the enthusiasm,not all organizations have jumped on board:Outlook for 2025 H2We project accelerating adoption of AI and automation in logistics through the rest of 2025.Competition and cost pressures will push even late adopters to pilot something whether its robotic process automation in back-office paperwork or AI for transport routing.We may see AI more deeply embedded in Transportation Management Systems(TMS)and Warehouse Management Systems(WMS),offering recommendations or automating routine decisions.By late 2025,a greater share of warehouses will likely employ autonomous mobile robots(AMRs)to shuttle goods,especially during peak seasons when flex capacity is needed.Generative AI might move from experimentation to implementation in areas like customer service(automating email responses for delayed shipments)and scenario planning(helping companies model“what if”situations in supply chain).On the automation front,expect more collaboration between humans and machines rather than pure replacement for example,drone trials might be paired with human delivery partners for the handoff,and AI decision tools will assist rather than fully replace managers(for now).Overall,the trend is strongly progressing and is a bright spot of innovation in an otherwise constrained logistics environment.Those organizations that invested early in AI/automation by mid-2025 are likely to have an edge in efficiency and agility heading into 2026.That said,the cost of inaction is rising:surveys show 87%of supply chain executives expect positive ROI from AI/ML investmentsxli,indicating a consensus that the tech will pay off.Over one-third(35%)of supply chain pros said their companys policies currently prevent AI usexl,often due to security,data privacy,or lack of expertise.Theres also the human factor:adopting automation can face resistance from workforce or require reskilling.Labor unions in Europe have cautiously supported automation that improves safety but are watchful that it doesnt simply cut jobs without transition plans.Another challenge is systems integration.Many firms have legacy software,and integrating AI/automation requires upfront investment and data cleanliness.34AI and automationWnShift recommendations Automate whats repeatable before optimizing whats strategic.Focus on streamlining manual tasks like label printing,order routing,and carrier booking.Feed AI with clean,structured data from your operations.AI thrives on accurate inputs start with automation to unlock its full potential.Use AI to forecast delivery delays,spot inefficiencies,and surface customer trends.The more you automate and centralize your shipping operations,the more strategic your data becomes.nShift provides the automation layer that helps you build toward these smarter,AI-enhanced logistics flows.For example,Wittusen&Jensen,a Norwegian wholesaler,saved the equivalent of one full-time salary annually by automating freight labeling with QR codes and eliminating paper inserts all powered by nShift.35Regulatory pressuresRegulatory pressures#7 What we said New regulations are coming fast,and they wont wait for businesses to catch up.From emissions tracking to supply chain transparency to digital commerce rules,the cost of non-compliance is rising.We predicted that 2025 would be a turning point,especially in Europe.CSRD,for instance,would force companies to measure and report Scope 3 emissions(including those from delivery operations)for the first time.Meanwhile,rules around packaging,returns,and even customer communication would grow more stringent.Our call to action:dont just prepare for regulation-use it as a reason to modernize.Companies that built compliance into their customer and delivery journeys would gain operational efficiency and customer trust at the same time.36Regulatory pressures Hows it going The regulatory impactThe period from late 2024 to mid-2025 saw the implementation of significant regulations in sustainability and commerce,with the EU leading the way:Foremost is the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive(CSRD)in Europe,which took effect for large companies from January 2025.Under CSRD,thousands of companies(including many non-EU firms with EU operations)must report extensive environmental and social impact metrics in annual reportsxlii.This has been a game-changer:companies spent early 2025 scrambling to compile data on carbon emissions,energy use,supply chain labor standards,and more to meet the new European Sustainability Reporting Standards.In parallel,other EU directives loom:the EU Deforestation Regulation(EUDR)and the proposed Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive(CSDDD)will require proof that supply chains are free of deforestation and human rights abuses.Additionally,the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation(PPWR)in the EU(expected to start coming into force around 202526)mandates higher recycled content and waste reduction in packagingxliii.From 2025,CSRD applies to thousands of businesses.37Regulatory pressuresThese combined pressures amount to a sustainability compliance overhaul that organizations must adapt to.Companies have responded by investing in data systems and expertise.Many hired or expanded sustainability and compliance teams in H1 2025.A common move was implementing ESG reporting software and carbon tracking tools(for example,using solutions to automatically calculate CO per shipment,energy per facility,etc.,rather than tedious spreadsheets).Despite the rush,preparedness varies:surveys indicate larger multinationals are generally on track,while many SMEs feel overwhelmed.International retailers struggle with diverging rules across regionsxliv a U.S.company,for instance,now faces EU CSRD,potential UK rules,and the expected SEC climate disclosure rule in the US(which,though delayed,may land by 2025).This patchwork is causing firms to err on the side of detailed global reporting to satisfy all audiences.On the adaptation front,some organizations are integrating sustainability metrics into daily operations e.g.tying executive bonuses to emission targets,or using carbon footprint as a factor in procurement decisions.We also see companies setting up internal audit processes to ensure compliance(akin to financial audits,but for ESG data).Beyond sustainabilityApart from sustainability,digital and e-commerce regulations also pressed firms in early 2025.Europes Digital Services Act(DSA)and Digital Markets Act(DMA)began enforcement,affecting how e-commerce marketplaces operate(content moderation,data usage,fairness of rankings)xlv.Large online platforms had to increase transparency and give users more rights,which required tech changes and legal reviews.Meanwhile,data privacy enforcement(GDPR fines)continued,influencing how companies manage customer data in marketing and cross-border transfers.In logistics,new transport regulations in Europe like rules around working hours for drivers,or upcoming Euro 7 emissions standards kept compliance teams busy too.So the regulatory pressure isnt one-dimensional;it spans environmental,digital competition,privacy,and labor domains.Businesses are starting to integrate sustainability metrics into daily operations.38Regulatory pressuresOn the plus side,many companies found that preparing for CSRD gave them better insight into their operations(e.g.discovering inefficiencies when measuring energy use)in some cases prompting cost-saving initiatives that also reduce emissions.Its also driving industry collaboration:companies are uniting to share best practices for sustainability and even to work jointly on sustainability solutions(competitor collaboration was noted as a rising trend rivals teaming up on recycling programs or shared sustainability databases to ease compliance)xlvi.On the negative side,compliance costs are significant smaller retailers worry about the burden,and some deadlines may need flexibility.An unexpected development was the extent of skepticism and fatigue reported:some consumers and even executives express“sustainability fatigue,”worrying that the reporting is a checkbox exercise.However,regulators show no signs of relenting;if anything,enforcement is ramping up.A notable moment was the EU fining Meta in late 2024 for antitrust issues related to its Marketplacexlvii,underscoring that big tech and e-commerce giants are in the crosshairs on multiple regulatory fronts.These regulatory pressures have spurred some positive change and some anxiety:39Regulatory pressuresOutlook for H2 2025Regulatory pressure will only increase in the latter half of 2025.Companies will have to publish their first CSRD-compliant reports,likely revealing gaps and forcing improvements in data collection for next year.We might see early enforcement actions if reports are subpar or misleading,since authorities want to set precedents.The climate disclosure trend is global expect moves in the US(SECs climate rule possibly finalized)and other regions following suit.Organizations will adapt by further integrating compliance into strategy:2025s second half could see more technology adoption specifically for compliance,such as blockchain for supply chain traceability(to satisfy due diligence directives)or AI tools to scan for regulatory risks.Retailers and logistics firms in Europe will also gear up for new labor and environmental standards(for instance,Frances law against destruction of unsold goods,Germanys supply chain due diligence law,etc.),broadening the compliance scope.By end of 2025,the idea of mandatory ESG and operational transparency will be accepted as the“new normal”in doing business in Europe,and companies that proactively adapt will be ahead of the curve,whereas laggards may face reputational or legal repercussions.40Regulatory pressuresnShift recommendations Prepare your delivery data for reporting.Whether for CSRD,emissions,or consumer rights,your compliance posture depends on what you can track and prove.Design customer journeys with regulation in mind.Ensure that delivery terms,tracking,and returns meet legal and customer expectations.Use regulation as a driver for modernization.When you align compliance efforts with customer experience upgrades,you reduce risk and increase satisfaction.nShift supports these goals by making it easy to surface CO data,track package journeys,and report transparently all within your existing operations.For example,when Belgium introduced a law requiring multiple delivery options(including a sustainable one),nShift customers were able to comply instantly using our out-of-the-box carrier network and checkout configuration tools.41Whats NextWhats nextThe first half of 2025 brought plenty of validation,but also a few surprises.Some trends evolved exactly as predicted.Others revealed slower uptake or unexpected friction.But one thing is clear:the retail and logistics landscape continues to shift quickly,and staying still isnt an option.Even as we check in on the trends we forecasted,new undercurrents are forming:Returns are becoming the new CX battleground,with more brands realizing that a seamless return experience can drive loyalty and repeat purchase.Emissions reporting is pushing deeper into mid-market and operational roles,not just sustainability departments.Delivery personalization is quietly gaining traction as companies experiment with dynamic delivery windows,hyper-local carrier selection,and branded post-purchase flows.And new compliance requirements on packaging,rights of withdrawal,and digital receipts are tightening across European markets.Well explore these shifts more fully later this year.But for now,they serve as a reminder:Its not just what you deliver:its how,when,where,and why.42Whats NextOne platform for every trend that mattersCheckoutDeliverTrackReturnFrom social checkout to sustainable delivery,global growth to regulatory readiness,nShift helps retailers,warehouses,and carriers turn complexity into capability.As this report shows,the biggest trends of 2025 converge in one place:the delivery experience.Thats why our connected platform puts you in control at every step.Unify delivery across channels,carriers,and markets,from D2C to B2B to marketplacesAutomate every stage of the journey,from booking and labeling to emissions tracking and returnsKeep customers informed with real-time updates,branded tracking,and self-serve optionsCapture and apply delivery data to improve performance,compliance,and experience43Whats NextBuilt for where your business is goingWith integrations to over 450 ecommerce,WMS,ERP,and payment platforms and access to 1,000 global and local carriers,nShift gives you the flexibility and reach to support your growth.Whether youre scaling internationally,offering more delivery choices,or streamlining operations,our platform evolves with you.Weve supported thousands of brands over the past 25 years,helping them deliver faster,smarter,and with more confidence.Ready to turn trends into results?Explore the full platform at ,or book a consultation to see how we can help you stay ahead in every moment that matters.44Referencesi https:/ ii https:/ iii https:/ iv https:/ v https:/ vi https:/ vii https:/ https:/ https:/ x https:/ xi https:/ xii https:/ xiii https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/www.consultancy.eu/news/11494/four-developments-driving-a-more-sustainable-retail-industry-in-2025xviii https:/www.consultancy.eu/news/11494/four-developments-driving-a-more-sustainable-retail-industry-in-2025xix https:/ https:/ https:/www.consultancy.eu/news/11494/four-developments-driving-a-more-sustainable-retail-industry-in-2025xxii https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ xxvii https:/ https:/ https:/ xxx https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/www.insidelogistics.ca/artificial-intelligence-ai/survey-highlights-ais-role-in-supply-chain-growthxlii https:/ https:/ https:/www.consultancy.eu/news/11494/four-developments-driving-a-more-sustainable-retail-industry-in-2025xlv https:/ https:/www.consultancy.eu/news/11494/four-developments-driving-a-more-sustainable-retail-industry-in-2025xlvii https:/
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Insights on Household Income&Expense of Chinese Car Buyers Travel(2025)TengYi Research InstituteFami.
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H1 2025Sector Coverage ReportTransportation Technology UpdateIntroduction2Despite a brief spring correction triggered by the“Liberation Day”tariff announcement,technology stocks have delivered reasonably strong year-to-date gains,driven by sustained optimism around AI-driven investment and productivity.That said,meaningful risks remain on the horizon,including escalating geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts,the potential resurgence of inflation,uncertainty around the Federal Reserves interest rate trajectory,and increased vulnerability stemming from concentrated leadership in the tech sector.While the anticipated M&A boom has yet to fully materialize,with tariff-related uncertainty delaying some transactions,particularly in Transportation Technology,improving market sentiment and growing private equity activity suggest that deal momentum is building.Our Transportation Technology team is actively engaged across several transactions and looks forward to connecting with you to share insights and innovations across the eight core sectors we cover:automotive,aviation,maritime,off-road,transit and mobility,rail,supply chain and logistics,and trucking.We are pleased to issue Houlihan Lokeys Transportation Technology Update,which offers our views on the first half of 2025 and our perspectives on key ongoing themes for 2025 and beyond.01H1 Review and 2025 Outlook 702M&A and Financing Activity Within Transportation Technology1203Public Markets Update 2904About Houlihan Lokey 34Inside the UpdateBest regards,Shane KaiserManaging Director,Head of Transportation TechnologyHoulihan Lokeys Transportation Technology Practice3Featured TransactionsTombstones included herein represent transactions closed from 2020 forward.*Selected transactions were executed by Houlihan Lokey professionals while at other firms acquired by Houlihan Lokey or by professionals from a Houlihan Lokey joint venture company.Transportation Technology TeamShane KaiserManaging DirectorNew YorkSKaiserHL.com 1 203.273.0213Tim MacholzDirectorSan FranciscoTMacholzHL.com 1 415.273.3628Tyler DeckSenior Vice PresidentBostonTDeckHL.com 1 949.375.2592Luc PetreVice PresidentNew YorkLPetreHL.com 1 917.498.8307Baylen PosnerAssociateNew YorkBaylen.PosnerHL.com 1 215.896.0602Joseph NicholsFinancial AnalystSan FranciscoJoseph.NicholsHL.com 1 626.807.9745Sellside AdvisorAutomotive Transformation Group,a portfolio company of Inflexion,has been acquired by Keyloop,a portfolio company of Francisco PartnersSellside AdvisorPredian has been acquiredby CDK Global,a portfolio company of BrookfieldBuyside AdvisorApollo has acquired a minority stake in AutodocValuation AdvisorShop-Ware,a portfolio company of Insight Partnersand Bosch,has been acquired by Vehlo,a portfolio companyof GSVSellside AdvisorSellside AdvisorSupplyShift has been acquired by SpheraSellside AdvisorECM Equity Capital Management GmbH has sold PikeTec GmbH to SynopsysSellside AdvisorBlume Global,Inc.,a portfolio company of Apollo Global Management,Inc.,has been acquired by WiseTech Global LimitedSellside AdvisorEverDriven,a portfolio company of Palladium,has been acquired by CharlesbankSellside AdvisorNexus Vehicle Rental,a portfolio company of Phoenix Equity Partners,has been acquired by Equistone Partners Europe Company AdvisorAutoWeb,Inc.has been acquired via an equity tender and merger agreement byOne Planet Group,Inc.Sellside AdvisorKpler Holding has receiveda minority investment from Five Arrows Managers&Insight PartnersSellside AdvisorAsset Intelligence,owned by Informa Business Media,Inc.,has been acquired by Randall Reilly,LLC Sellside AdvisorSmartEquip,Inc.has been acquired by Ritchie Bros.Auctioneers IncorporatedSellside AdvisorSambaSafety,a portfolio company of ABRY Partners,has been acquired byStone Point CapitalSellside AdvisoreDriving,a portfolio company of CIP Capital,has been acquired by SoleraFinancial Advisor*AutoForm has merged with GForcesExclusive Financial AdvisorLiberty Hall Capital Partners has acquired Paxia SolutionsFinancing AdvisorOverhaul Group has receiveda$55,000,000 growth equity investmentSellside AdvisorOcean Technologies Group,a portfolio company ofOakley Capital,has been acquired by Lloyds RegisterSellside AdvisorEmpowerMX has been acquired by IFSSellside AdvisorPartsTech,a portfolio company of Insight Partners,OpenviewVenture Capital,Bosch,and BP Ventures,has been acquired by OEConnection,a portfolio company of Genstar CapitalSellside AdvisorAdvent eModal has been acquired by CargoSprint,a portfolio company of Lone View CapitalSellside AdvisorOutsell has been acquired by ImpelBuyside AdvisorCBPE has invested in VelocitiSolutions alongside Management and existing investor Literacy CapitalHow We Cover Transportation Technology4Application SoftwareData and AnalyticsMarketplacesIoTModes/End MarketsAutomotiveCRMDigital RetailingDMSFinance and InsuranceLead ManagementRegistration,Titling,and ComplianceEquity MiningInsurance UnderwritingMarketing AutomationParts and Inventory PricingPredictive Diagnostics and MaintenanceVehicle AppraisalAuctioning and De-FleetingBuy/Sell E-Commerce and Online RetailingOn-Demand Vehicle TransportationParts ProcurementConnected CarDriver MonitoringTelematicsAviationFlight Planning and DispatchInventory ManagementMaintenance TrackingMRO(Third Party)Pilot TrainingFlight and Fuel OptimizationPredictive MaintenanceRegulatory DataParts ProcurementAircraft SafetyPassenger ExperienceTelematicsMaritimeBunkeringDock OperationsFreight ManagementPlanned MaintenanceProduction PlanningVessel ManagementMarket Intelligence(Vessel and Voyage,Port,and Trade Flow Data)Predictive MaintenanceBuy/Sell E-CommerceParts ProcurementGPS TrackingTelematicsOff-RoadAsset ManagementDealer Management SystemE-TicketingMaterials ManagementE-LogsPredictive MaintenanceBuy/Sell E-CommerceEquipment RentalEquipment Monitoring and ControlGPS TrackingSite VisibilityTelematicsRailOperations ControlPlanning and SchedulingYard and Asset ManagementEquipment DiagnosticsIncident Analytics and PreventionPredictive MaintenanceRoute Analysis and OptimizationParts ProcurementTelematicsTrack and Asset Sensors(Temperature,Noise,and Speed)Supply Chain and LogisticsERPOrder ManagementProcurement and SpendSupplier SourcingTMSWarehouse Management OrchestrationVisibility Trade,Emissions,and ComplianceNetwork and Inventory OptimizationFreight DataDigital Freight BrokeringThird-Party Logistics(3PL)Cold ChainMultimodal Asset TrackingTelematicsWarehouse VisibilityTransit and MobilityRoute Planning and Optimization(Student,Public,and Corporate Transport)Smart City PlanningToll ManagementParking Management SoftwareInfrastructure Optimization and Visualization Predictive MaintenanceRidership DataTraffic DataRidesharingConditions Monitoring and SafetyGPS TrackingParking SensorsTelematicsTruckingCRMDMSFleet Management(Fleet and Fuel Tracking,Rightsizing,Routing,Scheduling,and Driver Risk Management)Emissions ComplianceFleet Analytics and ReportingParts and Inventory PricingPredictive Diagnostics and MaintenanceVehicle Health and MaintenanceDigital FreightDriver SourcingHeavy Truck/Van E-CommerceGPS TrackingTelematicsVideo-Based SafetyIndustry ThemesLabor Shortages Asset Management and OperationsAsset Maintenance and Repair Digitization of Physical Operations Energy TransitionAI AugmentationRepresentative Transportation Technology Market Map5Off-RoadIoTMarketplacesTransit and MobilityApplication SoftwareIoTData and AnalyticsRailIoTApplication SoftwareData and AnalyticsAviationIoTApplication SoftwareMarketplacesData and AnalyticsAutomotiveApplication SoftwareMarketplacesData and AnalyticsIoTSupply Chain and LogisticsApplication SoftwareMarketplacesData and AnalyticsMaritimeApplication SoftwareIoTData and AnalyticsTruckingIoTApplication SoftwareMarketplacesData and AnalyticsApplication SoftwareData and AnalyticsShane KaiserSKaiserHL.comTyler DeckTDeckHL.comLuc PetreLPetreHL.com For full report access,please contact:6Transportation Technology Thought Leadership:Recent Market Updates,White Papers,and Deep Dives Into Specific Subsectors Aviation Industry White Paper2024 Year in ReviewView ReportView ReportOff-Road Industry White PaperTrucking and Fleet Industry White PaperView ReportView ReportH1 Review and 2025 Outlook H1 2025 M&A and Financing Activity in Review8M&A activity has stabilized,and we are excited about the upcoming transactions we see in 2025.M&A activity in the United States has stabilized in line with levels seen prior to the 2021/2022 spike.With the Federal Reserve holding rates steady year-to-date,the anticipated boom in software M&A has yet to materialize;however,analysts expect two or three rate cuts later this year,which may catalyze an increase in deal activity.The transportation technology sector continues to see exciting consolidation and investment,with activity across the spectrum of large publicly traded acquirers,sponsor-backed strategics,financial sponsors building new platforms,and VC/growth equity financings:WiseTech(ASX:WTC)has been highly acquisitive year-to-date,acquiring E2open(NYSE:ETWO)as well as two customs technology businesses(Editrade and Opentecnologa)and a global trade management solution provider(ImpexDocs).Tenstreet(supported by Providence Equity Partners,Spectrum Equity,and Supply Chain Ventures)acquired DriverReach,enhancing its platforms usability and ease of adoption for carriers.Thoma Bravo acquired a portfolio of digital aviation brands from Boeing,creating a new platform comprising Jeppesen,ForeFlight,AerData,and OzRunways.Interest in AI shows no signs of waning:8VC has been highly active with investments in Gallatin,Augment,and HDVI year-to-date.Sources:PitchBook,company filings.(1)Includes both strategic and sponsor M&A and financing;excludes early-stage investments.U.S.M&A and Financing Activity(1)U.S.Software M&A and Financing Activity(1)U.S.Transportation Technology M&A and Financing Activity(1)347349539468359347201920202021202220232024Historical Six-Year Average:4024,2984,4396,5755,5504,2254,454201920202021202220232024Historical Six-Year Average:4,92420,33120,09528,50525,91422,16922,846201920202021202220232024Historical Six-Year Average:23,31011,66810,468H1 2024H1 20252,3092,349H1 2024H1 2025180198H1 2024H1 2025AnnualAnnualAnnualH1 ComparisonH1 ComparisonH1 ComparisonH1 2025 Public Markets in Review9Despite a broader market rebound,transportation technology peers remain pressured,having been disproportionately affected by the“Liberation Day”tariffs.Source:S&P Capital IQ.(1)Market data as of July 1,2025.See page 30 for Vertical Software Index and Transportation Technology Index constituents.Overall Market H1 2025 Share Price Performance(1)Vertical Software Index H1 2025 Share Price Performance(1)Transportation Technology Index H1 2025 Share Price Performance(1)5%5%5%(20.0%)0.0 .0%Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25S&P 500Nasdaq CompositeS&P 500 Equal Weighted(12%)(30.0%)0.00.0%Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-252%(20.0%)0.0 .0%Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25The spring tariff-related dip was short-lived,with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallying to close H1 2025 with solid gains.Performance among companies in our Vertical Software Index has been mixed:Two insurtech companies,Porch Group and Guidewire,have posted the strongest gains.Since divesting its insurance carrier in January 2025,Porch has begun to demonstrate the benefits of its higher-margin,commission-and fee-based business model.Meanwhile,Guidewire is experiencing accelerated demand for its cloud-based solutions.In contrast,D2L shares have struggled year-to-date,driven by the uncertainty in the U.S.higher education market surrounding potential Department of Education policy changes.Given deeper tariff implications,our Transportation Technology Index has not experienced the same“V-shaped”rebound as the broader market.Kinaxis has been the outlier,with shares up 20% year-to-date,as the company has maintained its fiscal 2025 guidance despite macro uncertainty,delivered its third consecutive Rule of 40 quarter,and unveiled new AI capabilities.Some battle-hardened executives are learning how to live with the shocks and are becoming more strategic in using the disruption to their benefit.They have strengthened balance sheets,are running lean on cost,and are building resiliency.As a result,they can respond more nimbly to strategic challenges and maintain a longer-term view on their M&A agenda.M&A Mid-Year Report 2025:Separating the Signal From the Noise(June 2025)When you think about broader M&A,well continue to stay active.The deal we closed the acquisition of EvolutionIQ was a meaningful deal for us,and were very focused on the integration and setting that business up to be successful.We do have strength in the balance sheet.Were 2x levered.We will remain active in evaluating opportunities as they come in.And if there are good fits from a strategic priority,well continue to focus on M&A.Brian Herb,CFO(Company Conference Presentation,March 2025)As we look out over the immediate time horizon,we continue to see an expanding pipeline of potential M&A targets,and we do not see this environment slowing in the near term.As usual,the potential targets are mostly in the small and midsize range,and TransDigm remains disciplined in our approach to M&A.Kevin Stein,CEO(Q2 2025 Earnings Call,May 2025)Uncertainty has been the watchword for the past several years,first with the direction of interest rates after the pandemic,then with inflation,and now with the direction of economic growth,trade policy,and geopolitical instability Deals are being done in this market,including many large deals,and they will continue to be done.This is the time for dealmakers to be bold,find the right path forward,and then stick to it,whatever the days news brings.2025 Mid-Year Outlook:Global M&A Industry Trends(June 2025)The recent boost in deal activity signals a resilient and moderately opportunistic M&A environment.However,persistent valuation gaps continue to temper market enthusiasm and could emerge as a key headwind for future transactions Potential rate easing in the second half of 2025 could support deal momentum,depending on economic and geopolitical factors.Navigating this environment will require disciplined valuation strategies,close monitoring of policy shifts,and a proactive approach to geopolitical developments.M&A Activity Insights:June 2025(June 2025)We have a total growth model.We have an extensive track record of acquisition activity to complement organic growth.Changing market conditions often provide us with even more opportunities to add solutions for our customers and grow by acquisition.Edward Ryan,CEO(Q1 2026 Earnings Call,June 2025)Industry Players Expect M&A Activity to Continue Increasing10Sources:Company filings,industry reports.$432$451$512$495$582$653$214$183$157$80$36$31$701 2018201920202021202220232024$1,108$1,269$1,394$1,396$1,591$1,662$465$488$345$226$74$49$1,6462018201920202021202220232024In Part Due to the ImpressiveLevels of Dry Powder Available11Sources:PitchBook,“Q1 2025 Global Private Market Fundraising Report,”March 2025.(1)As of March 31,2025.(2)As of September 30,2024.$292$276$342$422$433$565$491$645$597$607$531$1168968539201,0209631,0371,1191,4951,220644131-$150$300$450$6002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025$88$126$202$206$262$216$259$387$375$229$1761,4262,2402,5702,8433,1622,8933,1994,4304,1822,6821,58723105001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000-$100$200$300$4002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Private Equity Fundraising($in Billions)VC Fundraising($in Billions)Early PE fundraising trends for 2025 suggest a slower year than expected,with$116 billion raised in Q1 2025 versus$179 billion raised in Q1 2024.Capital RaisedFund CountCapital RaisedFund Count(1)VC fundraising totaled just$19 billion in Q1 2025,marking a challenging start to the year;if this pace continues,2025 will be the lowest fundraising year in more than a decade,as LPs are in their third year without realized returns.(1)VC Dry Powder($in Billions)Private Equity Dry Powder($in Billions)(2)PE dry powder remains elevated,as deals are taking longer to execute,with significantly extended diligence processes.Despite weaker fundraising activity,venture dry powder remains elevated,as funds adopt a more conservative posture,reserving capital for potential bridge rounds to sustain portfolio companies through extended cash burn periods.201920202021202220232024(2)201920202021202220232024$19M&A and Financing Activity Within Transportation Technology Transportation Technology Transaction Timeline13The transportation technology M&A market has been active and balanced,with interest from strategics and financial sponsors.13Houlihan Lokey acted as a financial advisor to either the target or the acquirer.Mar.13Apr.24July 9July 10Aug.7Sept.2Dec.3Dec.20Jan.24Feb.10Mar.12Mar.25May 25(1)AcquiredInvested inAcquiredInvested inAcquiredAcquiredAcquiredAcquiredAcquiredInvested inInvested inAcquiredAcquiredApr.10May 1July 10July 16Aug.16Sept.18Dec.16Jan.10Feb.5Mar.4Mar.25Mar.31May 29AcquiredInvested inAcquiredInvested inAcquiredAcquiredAcquiredInvested inAcquiredAcquiredAcquiredAcquiredInvested in20242025Springcoast PartnersSources:Company filings,company websites,S&P Capital IQ,LinkedIn,PitchBook.(1)Pending close.AcquiredAnnounced on May 25,2025(1)Target ProfileYear Founded2000HeadquartersAddison,TexasGeographies ServedGlobalTransaction Size$2.2 Billione2open offers a cloud-based,end-to-end supply chain management platform intended to help businesses optimize operations across global networks.The companys mission is to deliver a deeply embedded,mission-critical SaaS solution that enables customers to enhance channel shaping,logistics,planning,trade,manufacturing,and supply management across regions worldwide.“e2open and WiseTech have complementary products across transport,logistics,supply,and demand ecosystems,and both organizations are committed to improving the efficiency,productivity,and security of global supply chains through better use of technology,data,automation,and artificial intelligence.This strategic combination empowers our people,and our customers who make,move,and sell goods and services to unlock new levels of efficiency and sustainability.”Andrew Appel(CEO,e2open)AcquiredAnnounced on March 25,2025Target ProfileYear Founded2013HeadquartersPortsmouth,U.K.Geographies ServedNorth AmericaTransaction Size$450 MillionAuto Integrate offers a real-time maintenance authorization platform intended to streamline fleet vehicle service and workflow management.The companys mission is to help organizations improve operational efficiency by covering critical stages in a fleet vehicles lifecycle,including service authorization,acquisition,and downtime management.“Our customers have consistently asked for a more integrated approach to maintenance management.By joining forces with Fleetio,were able to deliver exactly what they needa unified platform that eliminates communication barriers between fleet operators and repair facilities and ultimately keeps vehicles on the road longer at lower costs.”Terry Bartlett(CEO,Auto Integrate)Invested inAnnounced on May 29,2025Target ProfileYear Founded2014HeadquartersSan Francisco,CaliforniaGeographies ServedGlobalTransaction SizeUndisclosedSwiftly offers a connected transit platform intended to help cities move more efficiently through real-time transit data and analytics.The companys mission is to empower transit agencies with accurate vehicle insights to improve service reliability,passenger information,and overall operational efficiency.“Public transportation plays a vital role in communities worldwide,and with this new strategic investment,we will double down on our ambitious mission to make cities move efficiently.We are thrilled to welcome Cove Hill as a strategic partner,and for the continued support of JMI Equity as we enter our next chapter of growth.”Jonathan Simkin(CEO,Swiftly)Recent Notable Transactions14Sources:Company filings,company websites,S&P Capital IQ,LinkedIn,PitchBook.(1)Pending close.AcquiredAnnounced on March 4,2025Target ProfileYear Founded2012HeadquartersChico,CaliforniaGeographies ServedUnited StatesTransaction SizeUndisclosedWork Truck Solutions offers a smart technology platform designed to streamline operations across the commercial vehicle ecosystem.The companys mission is to enable dealers,OEMs,upfitters,and distributors to better serve fleet managers and businesses through tools for inventory management,analytics,and digital marketing,improving visibility and efficiency across the supply chain.“Were extremely proud of what weve built over the past 12 years and are confident this new chapter will enable us to accelerate our growth,in both product and team.Rubicon brings a highly experienced team,substantial financial resources,and operational capabilities to the partnership.What an exciting time with a very bright future,not only for our company,but also for our customers.”Aaron Johnson(CEO,Work Truck Solutions)Active Strategic Acquirers15Among all transportation modes,strategic buyer rationales mainly include expanding transportation networks and diversifying end markets.Acquirer#of Acquisitions(Since Jan.2020)Targets1913129765Sources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,PitchBook.(1)Pending close.Shane KaiserSKaiserHL.comTyler DeckTDeckHL.comLuc PetreLPetreHL.com For full report access,please contact:Active Majority Investors16Financial sponsors have been very active,executing new acquisitions as well as supporting their existing portfolio companies.Investor#of Investments(Since Jan.2020)Targets312524171099Sources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,PitchBook.Note:Given limited public information,some of the above transactions may be minority investments.Shane KaiserSKaiserHL.comTyler DeckTDeckHL.comLuc PetreLPetreHL.com For full report access,please contact:Active Minority Investors17Minority investors have provided strategic capital to new best-in-class companies across sectors to execute their growth strategies.Investor#of Investments(Since Jan.2020)Targets40333232242113Sources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,PitchBook.Note:Given limited public information,some of the above transactions may be majority investments.Shane KaiserSKaiserHL.comTyler DeckTDeckHL.comLuc PetreLPetreHL.com For full report access,please contact:Precedent Transactions18Ann.DateTransaction TypeAcquirer/InvestorTargetDescriptionEV($M)EV/LTM Rev.6/10/2025AcquisitionOffers an online platform intended to connect commercial drivers license holders with trucking job opportunities.n/an/a6/5/2025AcquisitionOffers web-based fleet management information system(FMIS)designed for government,university,and commercial fleets across North America.n/an/a5/29/2025FinancingOffers a data-driven public transportation application intended to help transit agencies improve operational mobility and efficiency.n/an/a5/25/2025(1)AcquisitionOffers an end-to-end and cloud-based supply chain management SaaS platform.$2,2213.7x3/31/2025AcquisitionOffers a recruiting and compliance management platform intended to streamline the qualification and hiring of commercial drivers.n/an/a3/25/2025AcquisitionOffers multi-modal transportation software solutions intended for shippers,logistics service providers,carriers,third-party logistics providers,freight brokers,and freight auditors.$115Conf.3/25/2025AcquisitionOffers a real-time maintenance tool intended to streamline fleet vehicle service,authorization,acquisition,and downtime management.$450Conf.3/12/2025FinancingOffers an online marketplace that connects vehicle shippers with auto haulers that have available space on their trucks.n/an/a3/4/2025AcquisitionOffers a marketing platform designed to display and advertise commercial vehicles online.n/an/a2/10/2025FinancingOffers logistics software intended to automate processes for freight,truck,and rail logistics.n/an/aSources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,Mergermarket,PitchBook.Note:Houlihan Lokey logo indicates a Houlihan Lokey transaction.(1)Pending close.Precedent Transactions(cont.)19Sources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,Mergermarket,PitchBook.Note:Houlihan Lokey logo indicates a Houlihan Lokey transaction.(1)Based on midpoint of 2025E guidance from Investor Presentation.Ann.DateTransaction TypeAcquirer/InvestorTargetDescriptionEV($M)EV/LTM Rev.2/5/2025AcquisitionOffers route optimization software specializing in operations research and analytics.n/an/a2/5/2025AcquisitionOffers local inventory from preferred part stores,parts geolocation based on availability,and an up-to-date catalog with high-quality images and videos.Conf.Conf.1/24/2025AcquisitionOffers enterprise management and supply chain-related software and services.$399 3.9x1/10/2025FinancingSpringcoast PartnersOffers real-time visibility and supply chain management solutions designed to bring compliance to global transportation.Conf.Conf.12/20/2024AcquisitionOffers AI-powered guidance for disability and injury claims management.$730 15.4x(1)12/17/2024AcquisitionOffers a freight tracking platform for the trucking industry,receiving real-time updates on the location.n/an/a12/16/2024AcquisitionOffers a port management platform designed to optimize the supply chain by digitizing the flow of intermodal freight and funds.Conf.Conf.12/3/2024AcquisitionOffers smart fleet management software and hardware intended to help customers and partners operate more efficiently across industries and verticals.n/an/a10/22/2024FinancingOffers automotive software designed to transform warranty claims administration by saving dealerships time and money.n/an/a9/26/2024AcquisitionOffers automotive software designed to transform warranty claims administration by saving dealerships time and money.n/an/aPrecedent Transactions(cont.)20Ann.DateTransaction TypeAcquirer/InvestorTargetDescriptionEV($M)EV/LTM Rev.9/18/2024AcquisitionOffers IoT solutions for fleet,asset,and mobile workforce management.$2001.9x9/15/2024AcquisitionOffers transportation telematics solutions to enhance driver experience,fleet safety,efficiency,and compliance.n/an/a9/2/2024FinancingOffers solutions for crew training,assessment,management,and vessel management.Conf.Conf.8/21/2024AcquisitionOffers a school bus operating platform with real-time GPS integration for route management,dispatch systems,and payroll automation.n/an/a8/16/2024AcquisitionOffers online media,automotive consumer marketplaces,and automotive-focused digital marketing solutions.n/an/a8/13/2024AcquisitionOffers a vehicle as a service platform designed for fleets and mobility operators.$110n/a8/13/2024AcquisitionOffers AI-based services for the automotive industry.n/an/a8/13/2024AcquisitionOffers software and services to the automotive,building supply,manufacturing,distribution,and retail sectors.Conf.Conf.8/7/2024AcquisitionOffers a smart mobility platform intended to deliver highway safety and transportation management.n/an/a7/15/2024FinancingOffers a cloud-based platform for trucking companies.$110n/aSources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,Mergermarket,PitchBook.Note:Houlihan Lokey logo indicates a Houlihan Lokey transaction.(Transportation Telematics Business Units)Precedent Transactions(cont.)21Ann.DateTransaction TypeAcquirer/InvestorTargetDescriptionEV($M)EV/LTM Rev.7/16/2024FinancingOffers Automotive Retail Cloud,a platform for automotive dealers that facilitates the vehicle sales cycle online.$4,000n/a7/10/2024AcquisitionOffers aircraft maintenance software designed to assist airlines and help companies in the management of their assets.Conf.Conf.7/10/2024FinancingOffers an autonomous traffic management platform for cities and their agencies.$350n/a7/9/2024AcquisitionOffers a marketing platform for automotive dealers and brands to engage consumers throughout their lifecycle.Conf.Conf.6/24/2024AcquisitionOffers lien and registration services,recovery services,and insolvency management solutions to Canadian lenders.n/an/a5/01/2024Financing Offers an AI digital voice assistant for automotive dealers.n/an/a4/24/2024FinancingOffers an online platform where it retails and sells vehicle parts and accessories.$2,458Conf.4/16/2024FinancingOffers a web and mobile digital communication platform that connects car dealers with customers.n/an/a4/10/2024AcquisitionOffers software through which it provides data management solutions and consultancy to the automotive finance and leasing industry.Conf.Conf.3/13/2024AcquisitionOffers a cloud-based shop management platform catering to independent repair shops within the automotive aftermarket.Conf.Conf.Sources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,Mergermarket,PitchBook.Note:Houlihan Lokey logo indicates a Houlihan Lokey transaction.Collateral Management SolutionsAnn.DateTransaction TypeAcquirer/InvestorTargetDescriptionEV($M)EV/LTM Rev.3/5/2024AcquisitionOffers a district portal and hard-to-accomplish transportation services for students.Conf.Conf.3/4/2024AcquisitionOffers transportation management software designed to manage,track,and optimize fleet operations in real time.n/an/a2/15/2024AcquisitionOffers safety and productivity services for fleets of every type,enabling clients to improve productivity and reduce the risk of injury to drivers,passengers,and pedestrians.n/an/a1/25/2024FinancingOffers a service management software designed to provide actionable insights that save management time and improve efficiency for automotive service operations.Conf.Conf.12/5/2023AcquisitionOffers both web-based and mobile application services that provide fleet managers with information on vehicle location,speed,mileage,fuel usage,and driver behavior.n/an/a11/28/2023AcquisitionOffers fuel tax reporting,safety services,and asset management,which help private fleets,for-hire carriers,and third-party logistics companies comply with regulations.n/an/a11/21/2023AcquisitionOffers TMS that automates processes,optimizes logistics scenarios,and attains real-time visibility into shipping operations.n/an/a11/14/2023AcquisitionOffers last-mile logistics,delivery management,third-party delivery,routing and dispatch,courier management,and returns management.n/an/a11/7/2023AcquisitionOffers driver training,e-learning,telematics,driver and fleet management,and safety and compliance training.n/an/a11/2/2023AcquisitionOffers CRM software and services,including websites,search engine and social media marketing,virtual business development centers,and reputation management.$101(1)Conf.Precedent Transactions(cont.)22Sources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,Mergermarket,PitchBook.Note:Houlihan Lokey logo indicates a Houlihan Lokey transaction.(1)Includes$25 million in performance-based consideration.Ann.DateTransaction TypeAcquirer/InvestorTargetDescriptionEV($M)EV/LTM Rev.10/10/2023MergerOffers subscription-based wireless IoT and M2M solutions for securing,controlling,tracking,and managing high-value enterprise assets.$3212.1x9/28/2023FinancingOffers vehicle reimbursement software designed to help corporate fleet managers reduce administrative burdens and create a more accurate reimbursement program.n/an/a9/12/2023AcquisitionOffers data and business intelligence services that provide automotive data,analytics,and industry insights.n/an/a8/16/2023AcquisitionOffers flight dispatch software with services,including computer-aided dispatch,crew and mission,flight and duty,smart routing and decision support,and fleet management.n/an/a8/16/2023FinancingOffers third-party logistics services,product packaging,wholesale fulfillment services,inventory management,reverse logistics and return processing,and customer service.n/an/a8/15/2023FinancingOffers a B2B bus-sharing platform that uses data and technology to target areas of high private car usage in order to connect people to places.$50Conf.8/15/2023AcquisitionOffers an automotive video platform that provides live video chat,texting straight through the video,inventory integration,and oversight and reporting.Conf.Conf.8/15/2023FinancingOffers an e-commerce shipping platform that aggregates courier routes and rates in order to provide clients with optimal delivery routes.n/an/a8/8/2023FinancingOffers an analytics platform intended to serve the mobility ecosystem by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights.n/an/a7/20/2023FinancingOffers a school bus tracking application that provides routing software,a real-time global positioning system,dynamic driver navigation,and a bus-tracking app.n/an/aPrecedent Transactions(cont.)23Sources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,Mergermarket,PitchBook.Note:Houlihan Lokey logo indicates a Houlihan Lokey transaction.FLATZ HOFFMANNAnn.DateTransaction TypeAcquirer/InvestorTargetDescriptionEV($M)EV/LTM Rev.6/8/2023AcquisitionOffers a car marketplace to buy or sell a car online at transparent pricing,thereby helping clients boost efficiency and automate buying,selling,and vehicle inventory management.n/an/a6/7/2023FinancingOffers data and software solutions designed to help clients in the rail,aviation,and defense industries increase operational efficiency and improve cybersecurity.n/an/a6/6/2023FinancingOffers a comprehensive payment platform with a focus on toll management for commercial fleets of all sizes.n/an/a6/6/2023AcquisitionOffers freight railway management enterprise resource planning software designed to automate core processes across all business domains.n/an/a5/31/2023AcquisitionOffers a supply chain execution and warehouse management platform designed to track labor and transportation in real time.n/an/a5/22/2023AcquisitionOffers an AI-driven dealership customer relationship management(CRM)platform designed to help clients streamline their customer tracking,sales,and financing.n/an/a5/18/2023FinancingOffers a web-based auto parts ordering platform designed to help mechanics and repair shops find and order the right parts.n/an/a5/1/2023AcquisitionOffers an integrated dealer management software designed to help heavy equipment and industrial machinery clients optimize their business operations.n/an/a4/17/2023AcquisitionOffers an AI-based traffic control and sensing system,including hardware and SaaS for businesses in the traffic management industry.$107 2.7x4/4/2023FinancingOffers a supply chain risk management platform designed to leverage machine learning and AI to predict,assess,and mitigate the risk of supply chain disruptions.n/an/aPrecedent Transactions(cont.)24Sources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,Mergermarket,PitchBook.Note:Houlihan Lokey logo indicates a Houlihan Lokey transaction.Ann.DateTransaction TypeAcquirer/InvestorTargetDescriptionEV($M)EV/LTM Rev.4/3/2023AcquisitionOffers digital retailing software solutions to dealers,such as desking,F&I,and inventory management.n/an/a3/20/2023AcquisitionOffers a web-based enterprise MRO software solution for aircraft maintenance and fleet management.$140(1)n/a3/9/2023AcquisitionOffers proprietary software,logistics services,and terminal management solutions to the North American rail industry.$70n/a2/16/2023AcquisitionOffers a multimodal supply chain orchestration platform that unites end-to-end visibility,supplier management,and logistics execution.$414Conf.2/15/2023AcquisitionOffers real-time ship tracking and maritime intelligence to the global maritime industry.n/an/a2/14/2023AcquisitionOffers cloud-based final-mile carrier solutions and road safety compliance tools.$218(2)n/a2/2/2023FinancingOffers a public mobility platform designed to optimize networks of buses,shuttles,wheelchair-accessible vehicles,school buses,autonomous vehicles,and electric vehicles.$3,50017.5x2/1/2023FinancingOffers a cloud-based product suite designed to bring modern technology to the global business aviation industry and supports a diverse range of flight operations.$150n/a1/31/2023FinancingOffers supply chain automation and logistics software for freight forwarders,customs brokers,and other international logistics providers.n/an/a1/24/2023AcquisitionOffers a transportation management software designed for intermodal trucking,drayage(container haulage),and landside logistics in North America.$2306.6x(3)Precedent Transactions(cont.)25Sources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,Mergermarket,PitchBook.Note:Houlihan Lokey logo indicates a Houlihan Lokey transaction.(1)Includes$20 million in performance-based consideration.(2)Includes$80 million in performance-based consideration.(3)EV/NTM revenue multiple.Ann.DateTransaction TypeAcquirer/InvestorTargetDescriptionEV($M)EV/LTM Rev.1/17/2023FinancingOffers auto dealers,wholesalers,OEMs,and marketplaces the industrys most advanced digital engagement platform.n/an/a1/1/2023FinancingOffers a CRM platform that provides a core system of record and workflow for customer information,leads,interactions,and data.n/an/a12/12/2022AcquisitionOffers a cloud-based business spend management platform designed to unify processes across supply chain,procurement,and finance functions.$8,194 10.0 x12/12/2022AcquisitionOffers a cloud-based transportation management platform designed to provide sourcing,planning,execution,monitoring,and settlement tools.$1,979 12.4x12/12/2022AcquisitionOffers a full-service mobile solution for automotive repair and maintenance,designed to help owners maintain their vehicles and maximize uptime.$190 n/a11/10/2022AcquisitionOffers digital retailing,financing,dealer reports,and deal management software solutions.n/an/a11/7/2022AcquisitionOffers a global digital marketplace connecting vehicle buyers and sellers,designed to facilitate the marketing and sale of total-loss,damaged,and low-value vehicles.$7,300 3.4x11/3/2022FinancingOffers a cloud-based supply chain visibility platform for shippers and logistics service providers.$2,700 n/a11/1/2022AcquisitionOffers digital sales,service,and customer lifecycle software solutions to automotive dealers.n/an/a10/25/2022AcquisitionOffers drive time settlement,telematics,and fleet management software solutions.$306(1)7.4x(1)Precedent Transactions(cont.)26Sources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,Mergermarket,PitchBook.Note:Houlihan Lokey logo indicates a Houlihan Lokey transaction.(1)Includes 12.5 million in performance-based consideration and revenue multiple based on 1H 2022 run rate.CanadaAnn.DateTransaction TypeAcquirer/InvestorTargetDescriptionEV($M)EV/LTM Rev.10/11/2022AcquisitionOffers fleet management telematics and global positioning system tracking for auto,trucks,and off-road equipment.n/an/a9/29/2022AcquisitionOffers end-to-end port management,terminal operating,and logistics software solutions for the maritime industry.n/an/a9/14/2022AcquisitionOffers equipment maintenance and repair,resource scheduling and dispatching,and field tracking software solutions for the off-road equipment industry.$322 n/a7/25/2022AcquisitionOffers an automotive matchmaking platform connecting in-market car shoppers to their preferred vehicle transactions.Conf.Conf.7/21/2022AcquisitionOffers cloud fleet and enterprise asset management and maintenance software.n/an/a7/11/2022AcquisitionOffers end-to-end dealer management,inventory management,and CRM software solutions for specialty dealerships.n/an/a5/4/2022AcquisitionOffers SaaS-based subscription solutions and software solutions for chemical tanker owners.n/an/a4/13/2022FinancingOffers a commodity data and analytics platform.Conf.Conf.4/7/2022AcquisitionOffers integrated data and technology solutions to the automotive,heavy truck,recreation,and off-road equipment industries.$8,220 4.7x3/14/2022AcquisitionOffers rail automation systems and software for the freight,transit,and industrial markets.$14(1)2.4xPrecedent Transactions(cont.)27Sources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,Mergermarket,PitchBook.Note:Houlihan Lokey logo indicates a Houlihan Lokey transaction.(1)Includes$2.7 million in performance-based consideration.Ann.DateTransaction TypeAcquirer/InvestorTargetDescriptionEV($M)EV/LTM Rev.2/1/2022AcquisitionOffers cloud-based GPS vehicle tracking and fleet management solutions.n/an/a12/23/2021AcquisitionOffers a mobile application that connects independent contract drivers to auto sales,rental,and transport businesses.Conf.Conf.12/22/2021AcquisitionOffers shop and supply chain management software solutions to the automotive collision industry.Conf.Conf.11/2/2021AcquisitionOffers management and intelligent solutions for parking,mobility,and transportation services.$347 n/a10/4/2021AcquisitionOffers driver recruiting software and workflow solutions for the trucking and transportation industry.n/an/a9/27/2021AcquisitionOffers a technology platform that supports equipment lifecycle management and integrates parts procurement from OEMs and their dealers.$175 Conf.9/15/2021AcquisitionOffers cloud-based driver risk management and motor vehicle records to various industries.Conf.Conf.8/2/2021AcquisitionOffers GPS vehicle tracking and road usage charging solutions.$391 n/a6/2/2021AcquisitionOffers a patented driver risk management program that helps organizations reduce collisions,injuries,license violations,and total cost of fleet ownership.Conf.Conf.5/27/2021AcquisitionOffers supply chain software and services to retail,manufacturing,and distribution industries.$1,700 9.0 xPrecedent Transactions(cont.)28Sources:Company filings,S&P Capital IQ,Mergermarket,PitchBook.Note:Houlihan Lokey logo indicates a Houlihan Lokey transaction.Project ImpactUndisclosed BuyerProject JayhawkUndisclosed BuyerPublic Markets Update3.4x4.7x8.0 x8.4x-5.0 x10.0 x15.0 x20.0 x202020212022202320242025Public Company Valuations:Historical Trends30Although the Transportation Technology Index traded at a premium to the broader Vertical Software Index during 2024,the recent volatility around tariffs and global supply chains has been challenging.Source:S&P Capital IQ.Market data as of July 1,2025.Median EV/NTM RevenueEV/NTM Rev.MetricsS&P 500Nasdaq CompositeTransportation TechnologyVertical Software5 Yr.Max 3.4x4.9x14.2x15.0 x5 Yr.Median 2.9x4.2x10.3x8.3x5 Yr.Average2.9x4.1x10.2x9.4xLTMTransportation TechnologyVertical SoftwareVertical SoftwareTransportation Technology10.6x8.0 x8.2x8.4x4.0 x5.0 x6.0 x7.0 x8.0 x9.0 x10.0 x11.0 x12.0 xDeep Dive Into Transportation Technology Index31Major transportation technology players trade at a range of valuations based on end market,financial profile,and revenue quality.Sources:Trading multiples and other data are based on share price,other market data,and broker consensus future estimates in each case from S&P Capital IQ as of July 1,2025.(1)Sum of 2025E2026E Revenue Growth and 2025E EBITDA Margin.EV/RevenueEV/2025E RevenueEV/2026E Revenue2025E Median:8.1x2026E Median:7.2xEV($in Billions)$23.5$21.4$18.1$8.5$9.8$11.9$43.7$3.9$5.2$7.1$5.0$2.7$0.2$0.8 NAEV/EBITDA2025E50.3x94.7x34.6x26.6x17.2x32.9x21.6x29.8x22.5x16.8x12.2x37.7x6.4x8.8x24.5x 2026E38.1x69.2x30.6x23.3x15.9x30.1x18.9x24.7x19.4x15.1x11.1x19.7x6.0 x6.5x19.6x Recurring RevenueR%NA 75%NA 99v 25E2026E Rev.Growth26%9%7%9%7%7%9%Gross Margin2025E86wv%NA59FdpwUWs 26E86ww%NA 58GepxUsITDA Margin2025E525Eh4B$0D%997 26E546Fh5C&1AE98%Rule of 40(1)786FVwAS9CPR1F2F&.1x 13.7x 12.2x 11.9x 11.7x 11.2x 9.1x 7.2x 6.8x 6.8x 5.4x 3.5x 2.5x 1.9x 20.7x 11.3x 11.1x 10.7x 10.8x 10.4x 8.2x 6.3x 6.0 x 6.2x 5.0 x 2.8x 2.3x 1.8x 1234567891011121314Deep Dive Into Vertical Software Index32Valuations have largely remained stable,and expanding EBITDA margins remains a focus for software players and investors.Sources:Trading multiples and other data are based on share price,other market data,and broker consensus future estimates in each case from S&P Capital IQ as of July 1,2025.Companies with EBITDA multiples higher than 100 x and lower than 0 x were excluded from analysis.EV/RevenueEV/EBITDAJuly 2024July 2025NTM Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginHoulihan Lokeys Vertical Software Index8.4x 7.6x 8.7x 7.5x 2024E2025E2025E2026E30.4x 24.9x 29.8x 25.9x 2024E2025E2025E2026E12.3.2 24E-2025E2025E-2026E26.4.4.2(.4 24E2025E2025E2026E-5x10 x15x20 x25x30 x-20%-5x10 x15x20 x25x30 x-5 %0%Vertical Software Valuations Are Correlated to Rule of 40,With an Emphasis on Profitable Growth33Investors continue to reward growth,as long as it is delivered with an element of profitability.With few exceptions,negative EBITDA margin businesses remain out of favor.Notes:Trading multiples and other data are based on share price,other market data,and broker consensus future estimates in each case from S&P Capital IQ as of July 1,2025.Companies with EBITDA multiples higher than 100 x and lower than 0 x were excluded from analysis.Based on Houlihan Lokeys Vertical Software Index(companies on page 32).(1)Sum of 2025E2026E Revenue Growth and 2025E EBITDA Margin.Rule of 40(1)vs.EV/2025E Revenue2025E2026E Revenue Growth vs.EV/2025E RevenueR=57%R=47out Houlihan LokeyHoulihan Lokey,Inc.(NYSE:HLI)is a global investment bank with expertise in mergers and acquisitions,capital solutions,financial restructuring,and financial and valuation advisory.Leading Capital Solutions GroupNo.1Global Restructuring AdvisorNo.1Global M&A Fairness Opinion Advisor Over the Past 25 Years1,800 Transactions Completed Valued at More Than$3.8 Trillion Collectively2,000 Annual Valuation EngagementsNo.1Global M&A AdvisorHoulihan Lokey Is the Trusted Advisor to More Top Decision-Makers Than Any Other Independent Global Investment Bank35CORPORATE FINANCEFINANCIAL RESTRUCTURINGFINANCIAL AND VALUATION ADVISORYNo.1Global Private Equity M&A Advisor1,900 Sponsors Covered GloballyFINANCIAL SPONSORS COVERAGE2024 Global 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The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to ActJuly 2025IntroductionExecutive summaryEmerging truck industry trendsKey uncertainties driving the futurePotential scenarios resulting from the trendsScenario impact on the truck value chainFinancial consequences and no-regret movesContacts0304051016202434Historically,heavy commercial vehicle(HCV)OEMs have operated in a comparatively stable and profitable market environment.Their success has largely stemmed from a business model anchored in long-term B2B relationships,proven diesel technologies,and a strong focus on reliability,uptime,and performance.Innovation has typically followed a pragmatic,evolutionary path,guided by customer priorities primarily total cost of ownership(TCO)and operational durability.In many ways,HCV OEMs have benefited from slow-changing customer preferences,conservative investment cycles,and proven product portfolios across regions.These factors have enabled them to maintain healthy margins,streamline operations,and focus on incremental improvement rather than disruptive change.However,this once-steady model is now under mounting pressure,driven by a convergence of transformational trends and growing strategic ambiguity.The transition toward zero-emission transport,regulatory tightening around CO emissions and pollutants,and increasing digitalization are reshaping both product requirements and value creation models.At the same time,the traditional vehicle ownership model is being challenged by the rise of service-based models,with fleet customers seeking flexibility,uptime guarantees,and integrated digital solutions.Further adding to the complexity are geopolitical uncertainties,supply chain disruptions,and volatile input costs,all of which introduce new operational risks and investment challenges and force HCV OEMs to reassess their strategic positioning.This study evaluates four potential strategic scenarios that may be the industrys future,each with distinct implications for product strategy,operating models,and financial requirements.Before diving into scenario-specific analyses and impacts,it also identifies a set of“no-regret”moves-areas where OEMs must act regardless of which future unfolds.IntroductionThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Introduction03Industry Transformation UnderwayThe commercial vehicle industry is undergoing a disruptive shift driven by decarbonization,digitalization,regulatory pressures,and evolving customer expectations-forcing OEMs to rethink business models,portfolios,and capabilities.Four strategic scenarios to prepare forBy 2035,OEMs may face one of four distinct market scenarios-ranging from traditional ownership to full truck-as-a-service(TaaS),and from high product complexity to full standardization-each with unique operational&financial implications.Truck-as-a-Service gains momentumTaaS is emerging as a compelling model for fleet operators seeking risk reduction and flexibility.For OEMs,it offers recurring revenue but requires major shifts in finance,service delivery,and digital capability.Product complexity challenges OEM economicsManaging multiple drivetrains(Diesel,BEV,FCEV)and weight-use combinations is driving product complexity and costs.Modularization and platform standardization are essential for scaling zero-emission offerings and managing operational burden.Financial risk differs sharply by scenarioHigh-complexity TaaS is the most capital-intensive scenario,while standardized ownership yields the most financially efficient model.OEMs must balance investment,risk exposure,and asset management across evolving structures.Six no-regret strategic movesRegardless of the scenario,OEMs must invest in ZET platforms,digital infrastructure,flexible manufacturing,strategic partnerships,workforce reskilling,and cost reduction-building long-term competitiveness amid an uncertain industry future.Executive summaryThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Executive Summary04Emerging truck industry trends2.1 Introduction to trend clustersThe heavy commercial vehicle industry is navigating a period of profound transformation,shaped by powerful and interconnected trends.These dynamics span four key domains:geopolitical and regulatory pressures,technological challenges,changing customer behavior,and a competitive ecosystem.Taking critical decision points across this spectrum of industry drivers will determine which OEMs are ready to meet future customer requirements and thereby secure competitive market positioning.This chapter outlines the most critical trends across these domains,providing a structured overview of the forces redefining the industrys strategic priorities and shaping future value creation for truck manufacturers.Geopolitics and regulationsTechnological challengesChanging Customer BehaviorCompetitive ecosystemsDecarbonization and emission regulationsMacroeconomic and geopolitical volatilitySupply chain constraintsDrivetrain diversificationAutonomous and connected vehiclesProduct platforms and toolbox principlesShift from ownership to usage-based modelsFleet investment uncertaintyDigitalization of customer interactionsNew entrants and competitive disruptionIntegrated digital and platform servicesIn-life services and predictive maintenanceFigure 1:Key trends impacting the truck industryThe truck industry is undergoing some significant changes,that impose major challenges for OEMs.The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Emerging truck industry trends052.2 Future defining trendsLet us explore the key trend clusters shaping the truck market and their strategic implications for OEMs.Geopolitics and regulations In this domain,three powerful forces are putting pressure on truck manufacturers to transform their operations and product portfolios.First,macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility has introduced heightened uncertainty into global supply chains,energy markets,and trade flows.The ongoing war in Ukraine,tensions in the Taiwan Strait,and instability in the Middle East are all contributing to rising energy prices,commodity scarcity,and disruptions in raw material sourcing which is especially critical for battery manufacturing.Second,decarbonization and emission regulations are becoming more stringent,consistent,and binding across key markets.From the EUs CO fleet limits to Californias Advanced Clean Trucks(ACT)rule and similar regulations in China,OEMs must urgently rethink their powertrain strategies and accelerate the development of suitable technologies to become ready to meet future standards.Third,supply chain constraints highlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic and further stressed by semiconductor shortages and shipping bottlenecks continue to create production delays,reduce forecasting accuracy,and increase working capital requirements.Technological challengesIn line with the broad set of use cases for HCVs,a new requirement arises for a broad set of drivetrain options to match the use cases.OEMs need to diversify in terms of drivetrains.Where diesel once reigned supreme,a broader propulsion landscape now emerges,encompassing BEVs,FCEVs,e-fuels,and hybrid options each with different implications concerning cost,infrastructure,range,and use case suitability.This diversification adds complexity and drives further costs in areas like R&D,procurement,manufacturing,and service operations,which requires OEMs to pursue platform flexibility while avoiding unmanageable product proliferation.In parallel,the emergence of autonomous and connected vehicles is set to redefine how trucks are driven,maintained,and monetized.While full autonomy remains years away from mass adoption,increasing levels of driver assistance and digital connectivity are already reshaping TCO considerations and fleet optimization strategies.Third,modular product platforms and toolbox principles are becoming essential enablers to manage complexity while preserving adaptability.OEMs are increasingly moving away from bespoke,one-off product development towards scalable,reusable platforms that can accommodate different drivetrains,cabin configurations,and regional requirements with minimal incremental investment.Changing customer behaviorDue to the global uncertainties coupled with changes in propulsion systems,fleet operators are seeking to increase flexibility and reduce risk.This has lead to the shift from ownership to usage-based models,such as truck-as-a-Service(TaaS),subscription offerings,and pay-per-use models.These approaches reduce upfront cost barriers for fleets and transfer maintenance,repair,and resale risk to OEMs or financial partners.Closely related is the growing fleet investment uncertainty.With new technologies unproven at scale,unclear regulatory timelines,and infrastructure gaps,many customers are postponing or minimizing capital expenditures.As a result,OEMs are facing longer sales cycles,increased demand for flexible financing,and a need to provide stronger business cases for emerging technologies.Lastly,the digitalization of customer interactions is reshaping expectations.Fleet managers now expect seamless digital touchpoints throughout the buying journey,from online vehicle configuration and predictive maintenance portals to real-time TCO calculators and remote diagnostics.Competitive ecosystemThis encapsulates how the broader competitive and service landscape is evolving.First,the threat of new entrants and competitive disruption is no longer theoretical.Tech players,start-ups,and vertically integrated fleet operators(e.g.,Amazon,Tesla,and BYD)are entering the market at cheaper costs with tailor-made solutions,or are already embedded in a wider ecosystem.These players can undercut pricing or reframe value through data services,uptime guarantees,and integrated logistics solutions,prompting OEMs to rethink their defensibility.Second,integrated digital and platform services are fast becoming a cornerstone of differentiation.OEMs must move beyond selling vehicles to offering holistic productivity platforms,often in partnership with software providers or telematics specialists.Third,in-life services and predictive maintenance are evolving from operational add-ons into strategic levers for customer retention and margin enhancement.With electrification reducing mechanical complexity and maintenance needs,traditional aftersales revenue streams are under pressure.Instead,predictive models based on real-world vehicle data enable proactive service scheduling,reduced downtime,and improved resale value,aligning OEM incentives more closely with customer operations.The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Emerging truck industry trends062.3 Uncertainty over the transition to ZETs and changes in ownership structureIt is becoming clear that many of the challenges facing truck OEMs are not speculative or optional,but rather inevitable shifts that require an immediate and proactive response.OEMs that fail to act now risk falling behind in areas that are rapidly becoming foundational to future competitiveness-whether its digital sales and service platforms,software-defined vehicle architectures,or resilience against economic and supply chain shocks.At the same time,there are two areas where the future remains significantly less certain,and where the direction-and especially the timing-of the transformation is still open to different scenarios.Technical complexityWhile long-term decarbonization is politically and socially non-negotiable,short-to medium-term uncertainty remains regarding the speed and structure of this transition.Critical infrastructure for charging and hydrogen refueling is underdeveloped,the TCO of electric trucks remains unfavorable for many use cases,and OEMs face mounting cost pressures to scale multiple technologies and platforms simultaneously.Political will may fluctuate with elections and economic cycles,and customer sentiment could remain more conservative than expected.Ownership structures and customer preferencesWhile the truck-as-a-service(TaaS)model is gaining momentum-promising simplified operations,risk transfer,and greater flexibility-it remains unclear whether it will become the dominant structure across all segments.Many fleet operators continue to prioritize ownership or traditional financing due to a desire for control over their assets,legacy systems,and accounting treatment.As regulatory clarity and technology performance evolve,customer preferences may shift significantly-but the direction and speed of the shift remains uncertain.For OEMs,this means preparing for a dual path:building capabilities for usage-based models while maintaining strong support for traditional ownership.The following chapters will take a deeper look into how OEMs canstrategically address these two key areas of uncertainty:Product complexity stemming from the transition to ZETs and the change in ownership structures stemming from changing customer preferences.This gives us the followingscenarios:Trends drivinguncertaintyTwo of the mentioned trends are difficult to depict:the ZET transition and ownership changes.The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Emerging truck industry trends07Figure 2:Potential scenarios for the truck industry along two major axesVehicle OwnershipTechnical complexity Complexproduct landscapeStandardized product landscapeTruck as a ServiceCash/financeHigh complexity&truck-as-a-service(TaaS)Standardization&truck-as-a-service(TaaS)High complexity&traditional ownershipStandardization&traditional ownership3 34 41 12 2The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Emerging truck industry trends08The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Emerging truck industry trends09North AmericaEurope Greater China 22%0%0 00PPpp00 2020209 2520254 30203060 35203517V%0%0 00PPpp00 2020208 2520256 3020302035203516#%0 0Pp0 202020202520257 30203062 352035ICE/otherBETFCETSource:1)Monitor Deloitte Zero Emission Trucks:Current hurdles and how to overcome them;IHS DataFigure 3:Truck sales development over time across the 3 major markets1)Key uncertainties driving the future3.1.1 What to prepare forAll around the world,truck OEMs have committed to becoming carbon neutral in the future.However,the path to carbon neutrality is still open for many OEMs.Many experts calculate that in 2035,around 60%of new truck sales will be ZETs.However,given the current geopolitical instabilities,including regulatory adjustments,it is still unclear how fast the adaptation in the coming years will be.The Deloitte Study on Zero Emission Trucks(Link)has already identified a multitude of hurdles that are yet to be overcome for broad adaptation.This will lead to strong volatility of the propulsion system mix of the next few years.Truck OEMs must therefore make a decision as to how fast they anticipate different propulsion systems to come to market and thereby form a single propulsion system again.As ICE truck costs have not risen drastically in the past decade,it is a clear cost case of how much investments can be freed up for the different developments of a broad set of systems.The two key uncertainties around the product complexity and the ownership preferences significantly shape the futureThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Key uncertainties driving the future10ICE(Diesel)BET(Electric)HEV(Hydrogen)Special purposetrucksConstruction&offroad trucksMedium-haultrucksLong-haultrucksLight duty(3.5 7.5 tons)Medium duty(7.5 18 tons)Heavy duty(18 tons)Weight categoriesUsage categoriesAxle configurations (4x2,6x2,6x4,8x4)Frames with upfit (Tipper/Box,etc.)Tractor unitsIndividual internal configurationsColors/tires/lighting/mirrors/springs/interior3.1.2 Rising product complexityGiven the current broad product portfolios of truck OEMs,with a set of weight and usage categories in place for different OEMs,the development of additional propulsion systems exacerbates the current complexity.Using traditional truck platforms for BEV/HEV models is suboptimal,as the higher energy demand and long-range requirements call for dedicated frames that can effectively integrate large batteries.For OEMs,this means that they had to develop new platforms not only for the different usage/weight categories but also for the different propulsion systems,increasing the product portfolio complexity drastically versus the status quo.By contrast,the complexity of electric vehicle development is decreasing drastically over the complexity of internal combustion systems.This might on the other hand lead to a broad spectrum of current upfitters/specialist companies entering the market with new developments of special purpose vehicles,putting pressure on current OEMs.Figure 4:Truck configuration complexity along the key driving categories Individualization optionsTrend cluster deep dive product complexitynewThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Key uncertainties driving the future113.1.3 The OEM PerspectiveThinking ahead in this development,truck OEMs may need to give serious consideration to their further positioning in the ecosystem.Currently,most truck OEMs around the world pride themselves on their customer orientation,which makes each and every truck highly customizable and dedicated to each individual need.Answering the question on product standardization vs.a highly individualized and customer purpose-specific portfolio raises further questions as to future positioning in the existing upfitter landscape.Will existing truck OEMs continue to supply large-scale upfitters for special purpose vehicles or will they focus their vehicle portfolio on niche markets and move away from a full-breadth offering?How standardized is the average product portfolio of OEMs going to be in the future?Where will they invest,and how much?3.1.4 Means of standardizationWhile several OEMs have already adopted modular strategies-such as unified cab designs or shared components-true product standardization across powertrains remains limited in depth and consistency.To move beyond existing efforts and unlock further R&D and cost efficiencies,OEMs could consider the following focused standardization strategies:1.Platform differentiation with shared modules:Rather than one-size-fits-all platforms(e.g.,ICE BEV HEV),develop propulsion-specific modular kits(e.g.,a ZET-optimized platform)with standardized non-powertrain modules(cab,electronics,braking systems)to balance performance and efficiency.2.Cross-powertrain software backbone:Invest in a unified,cloud-based software architecture that allows seamless integration of telematics,diagnostics,and over-the-air updates for ICE and ZET vehicles alike,future-proofing digital services.3.Customer-led modular customization:Shift focus from technical modularity to use-case driven modularity,enabling customers to configure by duty cycle(e.g.,regional vs.urban delivery),with OEMs standardizing based on actual fleet needs.4.Strategic standardization alliances:Establish open modular standards(e.g.,via joint ventures or alliances)across non-differentiating components such as battery enclosures,cooling systems,and telematics hardware lowering costs and boosting supplier leverage.All of the above categories are similarly approachable;platform standardization is in general a strong tool for cost reduction,which in itself allows for freed-up EBIT potential.However,it already requires substantial investment costs itself that need to be balanced with other investment requirement overall.Modularization,however,allows OEMs to maintain customer-facing variety while reducing internal complexity.Ultimately,customers are not asking for standardization per se,but for low prices and solutions that meet their needs.Electric firetruck exampleMost fire departments around the world are currently using combustion engine platforms of existing OEMs with upfitted fire department equipment.However,this approach has been take up from a different angle when it comes to new developments on firetrucks.The traditional upfitter Rosenbauer has already started to build a fire truck fully based on a self-developed platform,completely avoiding traditional platforms,provided by OEMs.This new development allows for carriage of different tools,a better viewing angle,a deeper access point to the truck for the fireman and other advantages,that are typically not possible with traditional platforms.An adaptation of this new approach by traditional OEMs would further increase product complexity drastically.However,these approaches for special purpose vehicles are on the rise and in high demand.BildThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Key uncertainties driving the future123.2.1 Transition to TaaSAs the transition towards more sustainable modes of transport evolves,so too does the technological uncertainty that comes along with it.Zero-emission trucks(ZETs)currently entail significantly higher upfront costs compared to internal combustion vehicles,driven by battery systems and limited economies of scale.Customers are uncertain whether there will be strong demand for ZETs in the future due to residual value risk.ZET purchase only pays off after several years as they have high upfront and low running costs.Customers,however,often dont want to use trucks for such a long period,hence,they want to hedge against the TCO risk through leasing and a truck-as-a-service proposition.Transferring this risk to the truck industry,it becomes clear why there are fleet managers trying to hedge the risk of new propulsion systems with the use of different usage offerings.To manage both cost and risk exposure,customers are increasingly shifting towards subscription models,pay-per-use services,and full-service leasing.These models help mitigate the impact of unpredictable operating costs and technology-specific risks.Early trends suggest a higher leasing share for ZETs compared to ICEs,as buyers seek flexibility and cost certainty amid ongoing technological and regulatory changes.Trend cluster deep dive ownership shiftFigure 5:Customers ownership decision options in the futureTruck as a serviceTruck as a servicevalue propositionvalue propositionBuying,financing,Buying,financing,financial leasing trucksfinancial leasing trucksTruck as a Serviceaddresses todays customers needs better than established offersTODAYS TODAYS CUSTOMERSCUSTOMERSTime consuming&complexCustomer has to take a series of decisions(Which vehicle?Which options?Leasing or financing?Trade-in?)Digital experienceFully digital process without down payments or paper-based credit checksFlexibilityCustomers can change vehicles frequently,no limitation to the end of previous contractBrand centricCustomer is locked-in with a brand&limited to its related offeringFragmented Digital Experienceoften involve multiple systems and touchpoints,leading to a less seamless customer journey and limited E2E integrationAvailabilityVehicles are delivered within a few weeks,compared to long wait for new carsCapEx to OpExTransparent&predictable monthly(usage-based)fixed feesInflexible&unpredictableFixed long-term commitment with unpredictable running costs&Residual Values(especially for EVs)ConvenienceEverything included besides of fuel(e.g.insurance,maintenance,tires,)The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Key uncertainties driving the future13For truck OEMs on the other hand,this transformation presents both opportunities and challenges.While TaaS allows them to establish recurring revenue streams,it also means higher capital investment requirements,greater residual value risk,and an increased need for predictive maintenance and uptime guarantees.The transition is further complicated by multiple drivetrain options,including battery-electric(BEV)and fuel-cell electric(FCEV)trucks,which add complexity to fleet configurations and service offerings.In addition,most truck-as-a-service offerings cannot be fully offered through existing organizational structures,as they need capabilities in the OEMs organization that might not yet be available.3.2.2 Components of truck-as-a-serviceTaaS shifts fleet ownership costs and responsibilities from operators to OEMs or third-party providers.Instead of upfront investments,customers pay on a more regular basis,requiring OEMs to deliver integrated services for seamless operations.This shift requires OEMs to offer a suite of integrated services,including:1.Fleet financing and leasing:A lease/subscription offer that includes buy-back options,increasing the need for strong residual value management,drastically reducing the overall asset risk for end customers2.Predictive maintenance and uptime guarantees:A digital maintenance and cost-optimization-driven service offering for end customers that is included in the price,drastically reducing the downtime risk for customers by giving usage guarantees3.Service and insurance packages:A set of service packages that enhance the offering and create a single shop solution for end customers4.Efficient billing procedures:Allowing everything to be integrated into a single rate including the bundling of multiple TaaS vehicles to reduce billing/accounting efforts on the client site5.Fleet optimization capabilities:A tool to support clients in optimizing their fleet needs,allowing for them to integrate new propulsion system vehicles into the overall operational procedure6.Infrastructure,consulting and services:While OEMs may not directly offer charging or refueling,they play a key enabling role.This includes consulting on depot planning,route optimization,and charging setup to streamline operations for fleet managers and drivers.Strategic partnerships(e.g.,with charging providers)can help deliver integrated solutions without full ownership-ensuring smooth adoption and infrastructure readiness across use cases.3.2.3.What does this mean for OEMs?While TaaS unlocks recurring revenue and deeper customer integration,it also introduces significant risks-especially relating to capital commitment,asset depreciation,and organizational complexity.At the same time,long-term dominance of TaaS remains uncertain.Once propulsion technologies mature and costs stabilize,ownership models may regain appeal,especially among customers seeking control and cost efficiency.For OEMs,the key challenge lies in balancing TaaS readiness without overcommitting-avoiding structural overbuild.Fleet customers are looking for instruments to deal with the TCO uncertainty of new technologies.”“Jan BakkerDeloitteThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Key uncertainties driving the future14The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Key uncertainties driving the future154.1 Key dimensionsTo assess the relevant scenarios,this study will look at a 10-year time horizon and depict the situation in 2035.Uncertainty for heavy commercial vehicle OEMs in 2035 mainly concerns two key dimensions:Technical complexity,which reflects whether the industry continues to offer a broad and highly individualized product portfolio or shifts towards a standardized landscape.Change in ownership,which captures the evolution of the sales model,ranging from traditional ownership to fully service-oriented truck-as-a-service.We hence derived four distinct scenarios through these two dimensions-each with its own implications,challenges,and degrees of likelihood.Through these scenarios,OEMs must evaluate where they think the market is going to be in 2035 and derive decisions accordingly.Along the two identified axes,there are four distinct scenarios that OEMs might find themselves inThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Potential scenarios resulting from the trends16Potential scenarios resulting from the trends3 34 41 12 2Scenario 1 High complexity&truck-as-a-service Trucks remain customized for specific transport needs,while ownership shifts to fleet operators and service providers.Fleet management is data-driven,with customers paying for access over ownership.Vehicle variety stays high due to diverse applications and coexisting powertrains(ICE,BEV,FCEV).OEMs must manage complex portfolios and build strong service ecosystems.Scenario 2 Standardization&truck-as-a-service This represents the most radical shift.Trucks will be standardized,primarily BET/FCET,and operated under subscription-based models.Large-scale fleet operators and mobility platforms will replace individual ownership,with AI-driven management optimizing fleet utilization.OEMs will focus on fleet uptime,energy management,and digital integration,rather than selling individual trucks.Scenario 3 High complexity&traditional ownership No significant shift from todays setup,making it a particularly costly model.Trucks remain highly customized,and ownership stays with transport companies.Fleet operators continue to buy,lease,or finance vehicles,maintaining long-term investments.Technological development will be evolutionary,and OEMs will focus on a wide range of vehicle types and powertrains.Scenario 4 Standardization&traditional ownership Battery-electric trucks dominate,but ownership remains with haulage companies.Vehicle standardization will reduce costs,simplify maintenance,and speed up adoption.Fleets will still own their vehicles,but the modular platform approach will lead to faster product cycles and economies of scale for OEMs.The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Potential scenarios resulting from the trends17High complexity&truck-as-a-serviceSpecialized truck types remainMainly subscription-based usageLarge operators/platforms dominateCoexistence of multiple powertrains Data-driven optimization and fleet controlUptime guarantees criticalFlexibility prioritized over ownershipOEMs offer bundled service modelsMulti-lifecycle management essentialStandardization&truck-as-a-serviceLargely standardized electric fleetsNearly all vehicles on subscriptionFlex capacity via booking platformsAlgorithm-based fleet managementVehicle ownership disappearsHigh fleet utilization and rotationFocus on lowest TCO via service bundlingHigh complexity&traditional ownershipHighly individualized trucks and powertrainsOwnership via purchase,lease,or financeMain customers are haulage companiesLong-term investment in private fleetsStrong in-house service and maintenanceLong usage cycles of vehiclesTech adoption based on proven systemsStandardization&traditional ownershipStandardized BEVs dominate fleetsCost efficiency and easy maintenanceModular platforms reduce complexityFaster innovation through scaleInhouse service execution is simplerLogistics players maintain control over fleetEfficiency gains through vehicle similarityTaaSCash/financeComplex product landscapeStandardized product landscapeTechnical complexityVehicle OwnershipScenarioScenarioScenarioScenario3412Figure 6:Scenario summary and key dimensionsThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Potential scenarios resulting from the trends18The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Potential scenarios resulting from the trends19Scenario impacton the truck value chainEach of the scenarios impacts different value chain components of truck OEMs differently.Figure 75.1 What does this affect?The different scenarios of the previous chapter along the two axes on technological complexity and ownership models each have different impacts on an OEMs value chain.Depending on the scenario,OEMs have various different levels of impact that they need to take into account when deriving their complexity.To prepare for this future,OEMs must understand how different combinations of product complexity and ownership models will affect their business functions.Whether through increased R&D intensity,new procurement demands,or shifts in sales and service delivery,each scenario presents unique implications that must be addressed proactively.This chapter explores those impacts across six core OEM value streams and each scenario shapes the core operations and strategy of OEMs.The value streams in consideration are as in Figure 7.By examining how each function is influenced under different scenario conditions,OEMs can identify where capability shifts,organizational redesign,or investment will be most critical.This scenario-based view enables a structured approach to navigating uncertainty,supporting strategic choices relating to resource allocation,portfolio focus,and operating model evolution.Ultimately,this chapter offers a foundation for aligning business model transformation with operational readiness-ensuring OEMs can stay competitive,compliant,and customer-centric across all potential futures.OEM Value StreamsResearch&developmentManufacturing&logisticsCaptive finance&packagesSales&distributionAftersales&digital solutionsProcurementThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Impact of scenarios on the truck value chain20OEMs need to readjust their whole value chain to assure resilience in the different anticipated scenarios.”“Sascha MauriesDeloitte5.2 Impact AssessmentAs the commercial vehicle industry stands at the intersection of propulsion transformation and business model evolution,the future strategic direction of OEMs will be shaped by the interplay between two core dimensions:vehicle complexity(high vs.standardized)and ownership models(traditional vs.truck-as-a-service,or TaaS).Each of the four resulting scenarios presents distinct implications across OEM value streams from product development to customer support.A deep understanding of these scenario-driven shifts is crucial for OEMs to navigate uncertainties and make resilient,forward-looking investment decisions.Research and development R&D lies at the heart of adaptation across all scenarios,as it is responsible for shaping the product portfolio to meet diverging market requirements.In both high-complexity scenarios-whether TaaS or traditional ownership-OEMs face significant R&D burdens due to the need to simultaneously develop multiple vehicle platforms and propulsion system(battery-electric,hydrogen fuel cell,etc.).These environments require a broad technological roadmap and deep engineering resources,stressing the need for new capabilities and talent acquisition,particularly in software and energy systems.Conversely,in the standardized scenarios,R&D efforts can be concentrated earlier and more precisely on new electric drive technologies,enabling more efficient platform development.This focus allows for reduced technical complexity but calls for strategic agility to rapidly integrate innovation and scale solutions.Procurement Procurement processes must be redesigned to account for both the changing component complexity and the changing supplier ecosystem.High-complexity scenarios increase the need for advanced complexity management and supplier optimization,as a greater number of vehicle variants reduces economies of scale and complicates sourcing.This challenge is compounded in the TaaS context,where volume uncertainty and a high customization pressure coexist.By contrast,standardized vehicle architectures offer OEMs the opportunity to consolidate sourcing volumes,leading to strong economies of scale and more predictable inbound logistics.Still,the transition to zero-emission technologies(ZETs)like battery-electric and hydrogen introduces new supplier relationships and supply chain risks across all scenarios,demanding a clear rethink regarding future setups from OEMs.As Research and development(R&D)is a fixed expression,the verb is always singular,never plural.Manufacturing and logistics(M&L)are heavily influenced by the breadth of the product portfolio and the degree of market fragmentation.In high-complexity scenarios,factories must manage high variety and slotting constraints leading to production inefficiencies and higher cost pressures.Managing these dynamics requires flexible production lines,modular assembly strategies,and digital tools for dynamic capacity planning.Standardization,on the other hand,enables more efficient capacity utilization,streamlined production flows,and reduced operational risk.Particularly in the TaaS scenario with standardized products,OEMs can run near-continuous production with fewer interruptions and tighter alignment between production output and fleet platform needs.Logistics also benefit,as fewer vehicle variants allow for more straightforward distribution to customers or upfitters.The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Impact of scenarios on the truck value chain21Captive finance and packagesThese emerge as strategic enablers in TaaS scenarios,where ownership shifts to OEMs or their affiliates.In both TaaS cases,OEMs must manage high capital commitments and actively develop fleet management capabilities,including usage-based billing,asset utilization analytics,multiple lifecycle management and residual value tracking.These models require expansion of the captive finance portfolio beyond traditional loans and leases to include service bundles,warranties,insurance and uptime guarantees.The risk of asset depreciation particularly for newer technologies like BEVs and FCEVs-requires sophisticated forecasting,and risk-sharing and risk management mechanisms.Even in traditional ownership scenarios,residual value management remains essential,but the focus leans more toward providing competitive financing terms and support for customer-owned fleets rather than full-lifecycle asset control.Sales and distributionThese are among the most profoundly transformed functions,particularly in the shift to TaaS.Traditional sales models based on transactional vehicle selling give way to long-term,service-based customer relationships.In both TaaS scenarios,OEMs must redesign their sales approaches to accommodate subscription-based models,flexible configuration offerings,and ongoing service integration.The high-complexity TaaS scenario introduces further challenges,as fleet operators require highly tailored solutions despite central management and platform consolidation.Customers require consultative services and want OEMs to work closely with digital configurators,financial service units,and fleet analytics to co-create value for large customers.Standardized TaaS eases product management,but increases financial risk exposure due to the use of newer drive technologies.In traditional ownership scenarios,the sales focus remains on maximizing transaction value,and skilled personnel are essential to match customer needs with complex product offerings or to differentiate standardized solutions in a competitive market.Aftersales and digital solutionsThe role of aftersales is being fundamentally redefined as electrification and service-based models gain traction.With fewer wear-and-tear parts in electric drivetrains,traditional maintenance-based revenue is under pressure.To offset this,OEMs must pivot toward digital,data-driven services that focus on uptime,efficiency,and proactive fleet support.In TaaS scenarios,aftersales shifts from a profit center to a mission-critical enabler.Fleet operators demand guaranteed availability,pushing OEMs to offer predictive maintenance,real-time diagnostics,and remote service capabilities as part of bundled offerings.This requires a robust digital backbone,scalable support networks,and new competencies in software and data analytics.In traditional ownership models,particularly those with high vehicle complexity,aftersales remains vital for customer satisfaction but grows increasingly expensive.More diverse fleets mean broader parts inventories,longer technician training cycles,and more complex troubleshooting.Standardized scenarios ease some of these challenges but still require OEMs to find new revenue levers beyond mechanical repairs especially over the vehicle lifecycle.The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Impact of scenarios on the truck value chain225.3 Key takeaways from theassessment The two major implications that can be derived are mainly along the two axes.Product complexity mostly drives R&D,procurement,and manufacturingIn high-complexity scenarios,especially those with diverse drivetrains,R&D and procurement functions face the greatest transformation needs,driven by increased technical variation.Manufacturing and logistics are similarly affected under high complexity but remain less impacted in standardized setups.TaaS transforms captive finance and packaging modelsRegardless of complexity,truck-as-a-service models significantly impact captive finance functions.These scenarios demand new capabilities in leasing structures,residual value management,and service bundling-far beyond traditional financing.In conclusion,each of the four future scenarios presents unique challenges and opportunities across OEM value streams.High-complexity and TaaS combinations push OEMs to stretch capabilities across nearly all functions,requiring maximum adaptability.Standardization simplifies operations and unlocks economies of scale but demands speed and scale in electrification and digital services.Meanwhile,traditional ownership preserves known models but limits the ability to capitalize on emerging service-based revenue streams.High complexity&truck-as-a-serviceStandardization&truck-as-a-serviceHigh complexity&traditional ownershipStandardization&traditional ownership1234Research&developmentManufacturing&logisticsCaptive finance&packagesSales&distributionAftersales&digital solutionsProcurementFigure 8:Scenario impact:degree of change neededThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Impact of scenarios on the truck value chain23Financial consequencesSome of the scenarios imply a broad operational transformation,requiring substantial financial resources.Depending on the current situation and skillset of the OEM,preparing for the different scenarios might bring some substantial investment requirements.OEMs would either have to expand their product and service offering or readjust their current offering completely to have a right to play in the future environment.On the other hand,OEMs would also have to enable the organization to adapt to the different fleet requirements on ownership,increasing their capabilities and also handling capacities.Each of these requirements implies a strong strategic shift and includes a thorough financial reorganization of the current structure to free up capital for investments in the value streams.This chapter is going to give a deeper insight on the different investment requirements per scenario.The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Financial consequences&no-regret moves24Each scenario requires financial investments freeing up cash is the number one priority for truck OEMs.”“Julian ZassenhausDeloitte6.1 Scenario 1-High complexity and TaaSThis scenario is arguably the most financially demanding for OEMs.The combination of high product complexity and the shift to fleet-based service models leads to significant capital intensity across multiple fronts.Investment requirements are substantial in research and development due to the need to simultaneously develop and maintain multiple vehicle architectures and alternative propulsion systems,including battery-electric and hydrogen platforms.These efforts not only demand upfront capital but also require ongoing funding to ensure technological competitiveness and regulatory compliance(e.g.,zero-emission mandates).At the same time,OEMs must establish or expand digital platforms for fleet management,predictive maintenance,telematics integration,and real-time asset monitoring.These digital enablers are critical for TaaS models but require considerable upfront investment in infrastructure,software,and data capabilities.On the balance sheet,the shift to TaaS means OEMs retain vehicle ownership,resulting in high bound capital.This creates a heavier fixed asset burden due to increased inventories of fleet-owned assets and long depreciation cycles.The ability to manage asset utilization and residual values becomes critical in sustaining financial viability.Cash conversion cycles lengthen,and free cash flow(FCF)is negatively impacted unless offset by strong service revenue and fleet monetization.OEMs will also need to strengthen captive finance units,as internal funding of large fleets combined with service contracts,warranties,and insurance packages adds to financial risk exposure.Managing liquidity,especially under economic volatility or low utilization,becomes paramount.Funding models may increasingly include asset-backed financing,securitization of fleet portfolios,or partnerships with financial institutions to offload balance sheet risk.Despite the heavy financial burden,this scenario offers long-term revenue predictability through recurring service-based cash flows.However,realizing this requires a significant transition period during which OEMs must sustain high investment and high capital tie-up before reaching scale.Overall,this scenario demands robust financial engineering,resilient balance sheet management,and a long-term investor perspective,as short-term financial performance will likely be under pressure during the transformation phase.6.2 Scenario 2-Standardization and TaaSThis scenario still involves high capital commitments,but thanks to standardization,the financial dynamics become more predictable and scalable compared to the high-complexity TaaS counterpart.OEMs must invest early and heavily in electrified vehicle platforms,particularly battery-electric trucks,along with the supporting digital infrastructure for TaaS fleet operations.However,product standardization allows for platform consolidation and component modularity,reducing engineering effort,testing costs,and certification timelines over time.The financial needs relating to bound capital remain significant,as OEMs still retain vehicle ownership under the TaaS model.This presents an“all eggs in onebasket”problem which leads to substantial CapEx for fleet inventory and a heavy balance sheet due to depreciation cycles and the need for continuous replenishment of assets.However,standardization helps reduce per-unit production costs,enhance predictability in asset lifespans,and streamline residual value estimation,thereby reducing some financial risks.The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Financial consequences&no-regret moves25With fewer vehicle variants,OEMs can benefit from volume-based procurement and optimized manufacturing footprints,improving margins and capital efficiency.Furthermore,operational efficiency in production and logistics leads to shorter inventory cycles and improved working capital turnover.Captive finance plays a similarly critical role here,but with a more straightforward product portfolio,financial products can be standardized and packaged,reducing customization costs and underwriting complexity.Risk pooling and predictive modeling for asset lifecycle management become more accurate,lowering required reserves and enabling more aggressive fleet expansion or third-party asset monetization.A major advantage in this scenario lies in the potential for recurring revenue and stable cash flows via service subscriptions,maintenance contracts,and digital services.With vehicles in continuous high-usage cycles,monetization per asset improves,and the return on capital employed(ROCE)can increase once fleet scale is reached.However,FCF in early phases remains pressured due to CapEx and software development requirements.In essence,this scenario requiressignificant initial investments and capital lock-in but offers a clearer path to financial scalability through volume,efficiency,and recurring revenue making it attractive to capital markets that value long-term cash flow visibility.6.3.Scenario 3-High complexity and traditional ownershipThis scenario involves high product diversity,but OEMs avoid the capital-intensive burden of vehicle ownership.As a result,the financial structure is more traditional,but complexity still drives up operational and investment costs.The biggest financial challenge lies in R&D and manufacturing.OEMs must maintain broad engineering and testing pipelines to develop multiple vehicle variants and propulsion technologies,which translates into high,ongoing CapEx and OpEx.The absence of standardization prevents platform convergence,meaning fewer cost synergies and lower scalability of engineering efforts.The return on R&D investment is diluted across smaller production volumes.Procurement costs are similarly elevated due to fragmented sourcing strategies and smaller component volumes,limiting economies of scale.This increases per-unit production costs,adding pressure on gross margins and requiring tighter working capital management to maintain profitability.However,because vehicles are owned by customers(e.g.,haulage firms,fleet operators),bound capital remains low.OEMs are not required to carry large asset inventories on their balance sheets,enabling stronger liquidity positions and shorter cash conversion cycles.Free cash flow is more resilient in this model,particularly during downturns,since vehicle CapEx is customer-funded.Financial needs shift toward sales enablement and product differentiation.OEMs must equip highly skilled sales teams,invest in configurator tools,and offer tailored financing solutions to meet niche customer requirements.While captive finance is less asset-heavy,it must still support leasing and insurance products,with a heightened focus on residual value management due to vehicle diversity.Aftersales revenues remain strong in this scenario due to the long service lives and maintenance demands of complex vehicles.However,complexity also increases costs for parts logistics,technician training,and repair operations,requiring targeted investment in service network capabilities and inventory optimization.This scenario presents a more conservative capital structure,with relatively low capital binding and moderate free cash flow.However,margin erosion from product complexity and low economies of scale threatens long-term competitiveness unless OEMs can price premium value effectively.6.4 Scenario 4-Standardization and traditional ownershipThis scenario offers the most financially efficient structure among the four,especially in terms of cash flow dynamics and capital allocation.It combines the benefits of platform standardization with the traditional sales model,allowing OEMs to limit capital lock-in while improving operational efficiency.Upfront investment is concentrated in the development of standardized electric platforms,primarily battery-electric drivetrains.The lack of product diversity enables focused R&D spending,accelerating time to market and reducing total lifecycle costs.The financial burden is front-loaded but more predictable and lower overall compared to high-complexity scenarios.Production efficiency is a major advantage.OEMs benefit from volume-driven procurement,streamlined manufacturing processes,and modular component sourcing.The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Financial consequences&no-regret moves26This reduces working capital needs,improves inventory turnover,and enhances cost control.Standardized platforms also enable easier forecasting and more stable capacity utilization,improving EBITDA margins over time.Since ownership remains with customers,OEMs avoid bound capital tied to fleet assets.This supports stronger liquidity,minimal CapEx beyond core manufacturing and R&D,and healthy free cash flow generation.These dynamics make the business model more resilient during demand fluctuations and attractive to capital markets.The role of captive finance is traditional but essential.Leasing,insurance,and extended warranty services continue to support customer purchases,with an emphasis on residual value riskmanagement-especially in the context of electric trucks,where depreciation curves are not yet fully understood.However,standardization helps OEMs predict wear and tear and lifecycle costs more accurately,improving risk modeling and underwriting performance.One financial risk is the potential erosion of aftersales revenues,as electric drivetrains reduce long-term service demand.This requires OEMs to adjust their revenue models and explore digital service monetization-but overall,the financial strain is relatively low compared to the other scenarios.In sum,this scenario supports capital efficiency,cash flow strength,and moderate risk exposure,making it the most balanced and finance-friendly pathway-especially for OEMs seeking to preserve profitability while modernizing product portfolios.Figure 6:Scenario summary and key dimensionsHigh complexity&truck-as-a-serviceHigh investment costs driven by various drives running in parallel,coupled with high capital commitment through TaaSHigh customer satisfaction through addressing customer needs individually and high flexibility for customersHigh complexity&traditional ownershipHigh investment costs driven by various drives running in parallel,with comparatively low capital commitment through financial productsHigh customer satisfaction through addressing customer needs individually,but with increased residual risk and low flexibility for customersStandardization&truck-as-a-serviceComparatively low investment costs in new drives due to rapid changeover,with high capital commitment through TaaSRelatively low coverage of customer needs but high flexibility for customersStandardization&traditional ownershipComparatively low investment costs in new drives due to rapid changeover,with relatively low capital commitment through financial products.Relatively low coverage of customer needs with increased residual risk and low flexibility for customersThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Financial consequences&no-regret moves27The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Financial consequences&no-regret moves28No-regretmovesAs the different scenarios are rather unpredictable,there are some preparation steps,that OEMs can undertake,regardless the expected scenario6.5 Strategic moves to take regardless of the four scenariosIn an environment defined by uncertainty across future powertrain technologies,ownership models,and value chain shifts,truck OEMs must position themselves with a dual strategic focus:preparing for disruptive change while simultaneously optimizing the core.While each of the four possible future scenarios-ranging from high complexity under traditional ownership to full standardization under truck-as-a-service(TaaS)models-requires tailored responses,there are a number of critical“no-regret”moves that OEMs must undertake irrespective of which scenario ultimately materializes.These no-regret actions are essential for safeguarding competitiveness,maintaining operational agility,and creating the foundation to pivot toward a dominant model once it emerges.The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Financial consequences&no-regret moves29Invest in modular,zero-emission platformsWhether complexity or standardization prevails,and whether vehicles are owned by fleets or sold as a service,all scenarios converge on the need for electrification.Battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell technologies will shape the truck portfolio of the future,and the OEMs that develop modular platforms capable of accommodating a variety of drive types and applications whether for heavy-duty long-haul,urban delivery,or vocational use will hold a distinct advantage.This requires not only R&D investment but also the capability to industrialize such platforms in a cost-efficient,scalable manner.Transform the digital backboneAs vehicles become more connected,and customers be they fleet operators or individual companies expect full transparency on vehicle performance,uptime,and cost of ownership,OEMs must significantly expand their digital capabilities.Investments in telematics,predictive maintenance,fleet analytics,and vehicle tracking solutions are foundational.These are not“nice-to-haves”,but essential enablers of monetizable aftersales services and TaaS offerings.Building an API-ready,software-defined vehicle architecture will also future-proof product development and enable integration with third-party platforms.Secure strategic partnershipsParticularly in batteries,semi-conductors,and hydrogen supply infrastructure,these components are likely to remain constrained and critical across all scenarios,and OEMs that proactively lock in capacity or form joint ventures will have a strategic buffer against volatility.At the same time,cost reduction remains an ongoing imperative.Legacy ICE platforms,low-volume variants,and excess customization that no longer adds margin or differentiation should be rationalized.Streamlining the supplier base,particularly for legacy components,not only reduces procurement complexity but also frees up resources for investments in future-oriented systems.The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Financial consequences&no-regret moves28Set up flexible manufacturingRegardless of the scenario,production systems must be capable of supporting varying drive types and fluctuating volumes without incurring prohibitive changeover costs.Investing in adaptable production lines,digital production twins,and modular assembly systems will pay dividends across all possible futures.Whether complexity persists or standardization dominates,the ability to scale or pivot production based on market signals will be a critical differentiator.In parallel,OEMs should explore nearshoring or dual-sourcing strategies to de-risk critical supply chains.Invest in people and capabilitiesWith the transition toward zero-emission vehicles,digital products,and service-based models,OEMs will require talent with new skill sets from battery chemistry and software engineering to data science and lifecycle finance.Upskilling and reskilling programs for current staff,combined with strategic external hires,are no-regret moves that build long-term resilience.In parallel,sales and aftersales teams must be trained to manage not just product specs,but also service contracts,uptime commitments,and tailored financing solutions.Focus on cost reduction to free up investment capitalFocus on areas of structural inefficiency.These include consolidating ICE-related overheads,simplifying the outbound logistics footprint as product variants decrease,and reducing manual interventions in configuration and pricing.In particular,legacy dealership and distribution structures should be re-evaluated as digital sales and TaaS models gain traction,reducing the need for physical interfaces and enabling centralized or platform-based customer interactions.The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Financial consequences&no-regret moves316.6 Strategic moves with regard to the key scenariosScenario 1-High complexity TaaS:OEMs may consider building proprietary fleet operations or pilot projects to understand real-world utilization and maintenance patterns.Scenario 4-Standardization and traditional ownership:Investing in digital self-service portals,simplified order-to-delivery processes,and scalable service contracts could enable cost-effective mass-market access.While these are scenario-sensitive,they can be staged as modular pilots with limited downside and high learning value.In summary,while the future of the trucking industry may take diverging paths,the foundational capabilities required to compete modular electric platforms,digital services,flexible manufacturing,robust supplier ecosystems,and future-ready talent are consistent across all scenarios.Truck OEMs that act decisively in these areas will not only build resilience but also preserve strategic optionality,enabling them to accelerate once the dominant model becomes clear.By combining these no-regret moves with selective scenario-aligned plays,OEMs can turn uncertainty into a source of competitive advantage and emerge as industry leaders in the next era of commercial mobility.Research&developmentProcurementManufacturing&logisticsAftersales&digital solutionsCaptive finance&packagesSales&distributionFigure 7:No-regret moves by value chainInnovate and optimizeDevelop next-gen drivetrains(BEV,FCEV,ICE),autonomous tech,and digital ecosystems to stay aheadCollaborate and evolvePartner with suppliers,research institutions,and startups to drive innovationStrategic sourcingManage global and regional suppliers,ensuring quality,cost efficiency,and contract optimizationSupply chain resilienceImplement just-in-time logistics while mitigating geopolitical,regulatory,and economic risksFlexible and automated productionLeverage automation and modular platforms for efficient,scalable manufacturingSustainable logisticsOptimize global distribution while integrating CO reduction and recycling initiativesFlexible financing solutionsOffer leasing,rental,and pay-per-use models to meet diverse customer needsData-driven efficiencyLeverage analytics for cost optimization,uptime maximization,and residual value managementMulti-channel sales approachCombine direct sales,dealer networks,and digital platforms for broader reachCustomer-centric solutionsOffer tailored vehicle configurations,pricing,and financing optionsMaximizing uptimePredictive maintenance and global spare parts availability ensure operational efficiencyDigital optimizationOver-the-air updates and fleet management platforms enhance vehicle performanceThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Financial consequences&no-regret moves32The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Financial consequences&no-regret moves33Sven SeippSenior Manager Automotive Supply ChainTel: 49 151 1268 3300sseippdeloitte.deAlexis Garbade-JonesSenior Manager Automotive Supply ChainTel: 49 151 5800 2469agarbadejonesdeloitte.deJulian ZassenhausSenior Manager Automotive StrategyTel: 49 40 32080 1635jzassenhausdeloitte.deReon ElanchikalConsultantAutomotive StrategyTel: 49 160 4169 739relanchikaldeloitte.deContactsThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Financial consequences&no-regret moves31The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act|Contacts34Jan BakkerPartner Automotive Strategy LeadTel: 49 89 29036 7640janbakkerdeloitte.deSascha MauriesDirector Truck OEMTel: 49 211 8772 4637smauriesdeloitte.deHarald Proff Partner Global Automotive Lead Tel: 49 211 8772 3184 hproffdeloitte.deDeloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited(DTTL),its global network of member firms,and their related entities(collectively,the“Deloitte organization”).DTTL(also referred to as“Deloitte Global”)and each of its member firms and related entities are legally separate and independent entities,which cannot obligate or bind each other in respect of third parties.DTTL and each DTTL member firm and related entity is liable only for its own acts and 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