Analysis and forecast to 2026Electricity 2024The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues inc.
2023-12-22
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THAILAND INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 2021-23POWER GENERATION April 2021Narin T 662 296 29431Over the period 2021-2023,the power generation sector will grow,supported by greater demand for electricity(a projected rise of 2.8-3.8%per year).In addition,the sector will be driven by the governments investment support measures under the Power Development Plan and Alternative Energy Development.With this,we anticipate greater investment from players in the rooftop solar,biomass,biogas,and waste-to-energy segments.These players will benefit from government support that will take the form of a steady increase in electricity purchases during 2021-2024,and they would also be more competitive with better cost-control and access to raw materials.However,competition is expected to stiffen,with this coming from both large players that are stepping up the level of their investments and new entrants to the market that are backing renewables,and as such,operators will see only moderate growth in revenue.OverviewThailands power generation industry is structured in line with the enhanced single-buyer model with state bodies being the sole buyers and distributors of power through the national grid.The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand(EGAT)is both a producer and,by purchasing power from private-sector independent power producers(IPPs)and small power producers(SPPs),a buyer of electricity.It also has a monopoly in the distribution of electricity in the country.In addition,the Metropolitan Electricity Authority(MEA)and the Provincial Electricity Authority(PEA)are responsible for distributing power as well as buying electricity from very small power producers(VSPPs)(Figure 1).Krungsri ResearchThe most important features of the Thai electricity generation industry are as follows:(i)Unlike other goods,electricity cannot be stored and must be distributed to users immediately through a transmission and distribution system.(ii)Expanding capacity to meet future demand requires long-term planning because power stations take 5-7 years to construct depending on the type of power plant.This long-term plan is the national power development plan,which main objective is to ensure that electricity supply is sufficient to meet future demand.(iii)Hence,state bodies have a major role in managing generation and distribution,as well as setting tariffs and investment targets to increase supply to the national grid.EGATEGATEGATGenerationTransmissionDistributionPEAMEAEnd-userEGAT-Direct CustomersEnd-userREGULATORSPurchase from neighboring countriesIPPsSPPs(Cogeneration)SPPs(Renewable Energy)VSPPs(Renewable Energy)Figure 1:Thailands Electricity Supply ChainSource:EPPO,compiled by Krungsri ResearchThailand Industry Outlook 2021-23 Power Generation2Krungsri ResearchElectricity demand growth will depend on the following:Rising domestic demand.This would be determined by the health of the economy.Generally,demand for electricity grows at 0.9-1.1 times the rate of GDP growth(Figure 2).In 2020,the major sources of demand were industrial,household and business sectors which accounted for 43.9%,28.3%and 23.5%of national electricity consumption,respectively,and others 4.3%(Figure 3).Within the industrial sector,the food industry was the biggest consumer,followed by steel&basic metals,electronics,auto assembly,and plastics production.In the services sector,there was strongest demand from serviced apartments and guest houses,followed by department stores,hotels,retailers,and wholesale operations.Government policy:(i)The Power Development Plan(PDP)and the Alternative Energy Development Plan(AEDP)lays out the desired total generating capacity for each type of power plant1/.(ii)They also set the pricing for renewable energy(because producing power from renewables costs more than electricity produced from fossil fuels,i.e.natural gas,coal,and oil),and this is now used to determine the feed-in tariff2/(FiT).Previously,the adder system was used to calculate payments3/(Box 1).(iii)The government also has plans to expand the power distribution network to support the increasing generation capacity,especially from renewable sources.Private power producers have an increasing role in the sector,especially for VSPPs(Figure 4).In 2020,the private sector controlled 56.1%of power generating capacity,split between IPPs(28.7%of total power supply),SPPs(19.1%)and VSPPs(8.3%).The remaining 43.9%is produced by EGAT,which is also responsible for buying-in power from neighboring countries.Power plant operators can be split into two groups,by fuel source.(1)Fossil fuel.This includes plants that are fueled by natural gas,coal/lignite and oil,as well as large-scale hydropower plants.In 2020,55.3%of the electricity produced in Thailand were fueled by natural gas(down from 72.0%in 2010),followed by coal,hydroelectric and oil(Figure 5).(2)Renewables and alternative sources.This includes plants fueled by biomass(generally agricultural waste),biogas(including manure,waste water from agro-processing industries,and bioenergy crops),waste(consumer and industrial),solar,wind and micro-hydro plants.Electricity from these sources contributed 10.0%of national electricity consumption in 2020 compared to only 2.1%in 2010.Currently,proven reserves(P1)of natural gas in the Gulf of Thailand is 4.9 trn cubic feet4/,while annual national consumption is 1.3 trn cubic feet(source:Department of Mineral Fuels,December 2019).This means Thailand has sufficient supply for only another 4 years,after which we would have to import gas,most probably from Myanmar.Because of this,the PDP emphasizes the increasing use of renewables in power generation.1/In the past,this was a 15-year framework,which was then extended to 20 years.At that time,the Energy Policyand Planning Office(EPPO)undertook planning in cooperation with the Department of Alternative EnergyDevelopment and Efficiency(DEDE)but planning for 2018-2037 is within the remit of the PDP and the AEDP.2/The net price for purchases of electricity is set at a rate that reflects the real costs of production of different typesof power over the course of the 20-25 years for which contracts to supply run.These are allotted through aprocess of competitive bidding organized by the Office of Energy Regulatory Commission(ERC).3/Under this system,an additional payment is added to the cost of electricity sold to the grid for a period of supplyrunning for 7 years.Admission to the system is on a first-come,first-served basis.4/Reserves are in deposits that have already been explored.Plans,which have been approved in accordance withnational laws,have been put in place for the exploitation of these reserves and extracting this gas should becommercially viable.01020304050602011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020ImportedEGATPrivate producers(IPP SPP VSPP)-12-8-404812199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020%Sources:Energy Policy and Planning Office(EPPO)/NESDCFigure 3:Electricity Consumption by SegmentSource:EPPO28.3#.5C.9%4.3%Figure 4:Installed Capacity(by producer)71.9.1%3.2%4.4%2.1%Natural GasCoal&LigniteOilLarge HydroImportedRenewable Energy55.3.9%2.2.3.0%Year 2010Year 2020Source:EPPOSource:EPPOFigure 5:Power Generation(GWh)by fuel000 MW56.1.52.30801201602002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020IndustrialResidentialBusinessOthers000 GWHFigure 2:Correlation between Electricity Demand and Economic GrowthGDPElectricity consumptionThailand Industry Outlook 2021-23 Power Generation3Krungsri ResearchBox 1Pricing System Development in Thailand(from Adder to Feed-in Tariff)Source:Compiled by Krungsri ResearchFeed-in Tariff for VSPP of Renewable (2021)Source:EPPO,ERCNote:1/FiT(F)is fixed component e.g.cost of electricity plant construction,operating/maintenance expense,land rent.2/FiT(V2021)is variable component for some type of renewable energy,which is adjusted depending on feedstock cost and inflation2007200920112015201320082010201220142016201720182018Adder tariff for renewable energy generators(SPP/VSPP)2006Feed-in Tariff(FiT)only for solar PV rooftop 2013FiT introduced for entire renewable sector(COD with 2017)Competitive bidding(except for solar PV rooftop in household group and solar farm in govt.and cooperatives agencies)2015New rate of FiT for the projects distributing electricity to system by 2018FiT bidding Biogas(water waste/waste)for focus areas:Pattani,Yala,Narathiwat SPP Hybrid Firm 300 MW(COD with 2020)2017AddersBiomass/Biogas/Waste/Wind/Small HydroBase electricity tariffFtAddersChange every3-5 yearsChange every4 monthsContract support7-10 yearsAdderFeed-in-TariffFeed-in-Tariff DiscountsFiTFiT BiddingSPP HybridFeed-in-Tariff DiscountsSPP Hybrid byFiT BiddingContract support 10-25 yearsFiT Industry waste,energy cropFiT bidding biogas(waste),biomass(excluding 3 border provinces in the SouthSolar rooftop pilot2016FiT(F)1/FiT(V2021)2/Total caculated FiT1.Biomass Capacity 1-3 MW2.612.264.8720 Capacity 3 MW 2.391.894.28202.Biogas(waste water/other waste)All size3.76-3.76203.Biogas(energy crop)All size2.792.605.39204.MSW(waste management)Capacity 1-3 MW2.613.285.8920 Capacity 3 MW 2.392.755.14205.MSW(landfill)5.60-5.60106.Industry waste(VSPP new plant)3.392.756.14107.Wind All size6.06-6.06208.Hydropower Capacity 10-250 kWp 6.40-6.4025 capacity250-1,000 kWp 6.01-6.012510.SPP hybrid firm1.811.893.7020FiT(THB/kWh)Period of support(years)Type of renewable energyThailand Industry Outlook 2021-23 Power Generation4Krungsri ResearchThere are three major groups of private-sector players in the power-generating sector.Independent Power Producers(IPPs)Total installed generating capacity:Over 90 MW.These producers mainly use natural gas and coal to fuel their power stations.The most important players are(i)Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holdings,(ii)Gulf JP NS,(iii)Gulf JP UT,(iv)Gulf Power Generation,(v)Ratchaburi Power,(vi)BLCP Power,(vii)Electricity Generating,(viii)Glow IPP,(ix)Global Power Synergy,(x)Gheco-One,and(xi)Eastern Power&Electric.Revenue:The revenues of players in this group are exposed to low risk because the IPPs sign long-term(25-year)power supply contracts with EGAT.Revenue is generated from two sources:(i)a guaranteed minimum intake specified in the contract with EGAT,and(ii)power supply directly to the grid to meet demand.Hence,their revenues are dependent on national electricity consumption,although some players also get receipts from their investments in power-generating facilities overseas,including Myanmar,Laos PDR,Indonesia,the Philippines and Australia.Small Power Producers(SPP)Installed capacity required to qualify as an SPP:10-90 MW.SPPs typically generate power from natural gas,coal,oil and renewables,and sell mostly to EGAT.A small proportion of their output is sold to industrial consumers that are located near the SPPs power stations.SPPs can be split into(i)firm-type SPPs,which have a 20-25-year contract to supply power to EGAT and are normally fueled by natural gas or coal,and(ii)non-firm SPPs,which have 5-year contracts(extendable in 5-year increments)and are normally fueled by renewables such as such as solar power,wind power,waste and biomass.Revenue:SPPs have two primary sources of revenues.(i)Derived from long-term contracts with EGAT that,like IPP contracts,come with a minimum revenue guarantee.This means SPPs only have mild exposure to risk of weak earning.(ii)Derived from supplying electricity to industrial consumers located close to the power stations.However,this revenue can fluctuate according to the overall economic conditions and the individual industry cycles.Beyond this,some players also receive returns on investments in power assets overseas,including solar-based electricity generation assets in Japan,China and Taiwan,and wind-power assets in Vietnam.Very Small Power Producers(VSPPs)Installed capacity to qualify as a VSPP:Under 10 MW.VSPPs typically generate electricity from renewables(including solar,wind,hydropower,biomass,biogas and waste)for their own use,and sell any surplus production to MEA or PEA at rates determined by the feed-in tariff(FiT)for that particular generating technology and other circumstances for as long as the project runs(Box 1).The majority of VSPPs that sell electricity fueled by renewables are involved with engineering,designing,procurement and construction,or manufacturers of solar cells and related equipment,as these operators have the necessary expertise to install and maintain the renewable electricity systems.Revenue:VSPPs supply electricity to the MEA or the PEA according to conditions specified in their contracts.They will receive payment when the electricity enters the grid(i.e.it is a COD system).Players that generate power from natural sources(i.e.solar,wind or hydropower)are likely to run at a loss in the first 1-2 years due to high cost of building and outfitting production sites,but following this initial period,the situation will improve supported by revenue from the sale of electricity.However,earnings could be volatile for players which produce electricity from biomass,biogas and waste,because of limited access to and fluctuating prices of raw materials.Between 2010 and 2020 the share of electricity produced by SPPs and VSPPs had surged with government support under the AEDP and increasing purchases of electricity from this group of suppliers.By 2020,their contribution to the national energy mix had jumped to 5.4%of all electricity sold through the grid from only 0.7%in 2010(Figure 6).The major players in the energy sector that are listed on the stock exchange and that produce power from renewables include Energy Absolute(EA)(solar and wind),SPCG(solar),Gunkul(solar,wind and biomass),TPC Power Holdings(TPCH)(biomass),Thai Solar Energy(TSE)(solar and biomass),and Power Solution Technologies(PSTC)(solar,biomass and biogas)(Figure 7).Some of these companies also invest in renewables-based power generation assets abroad.EA47%SPCG24%GUNKUL16%TPCH8%TSE3%PSTC2%Figure 7:Market Share(Revenue)of Listed Companies in Renewable Energy Sector(average 2017-2019)Source:Stock Exchange of Thailand45.3A.1%8.4%0.7%4.4%EGATIPPSPPVSPPImportedFigure 6:Power Generation(GWh)by producer Source:EPPO32.3.0&.0%5.4.3%Year 2010Year 2020Thailand Industry Outlook 2021-23 Power Generation5Krungsri ResearchSource:DEDE,compiled by Krungsri ResearchTable 2:SPPs Source:EGATSource:EGAT,compiled by Krungsri ResearchTable 1:IPPsTable 3:VSPPs Major Players in Thailand ContractedCapacity(MW)Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding 3,481GasGulf JP NS 1,600GasGulf JP UT 1,600GasGulf Power Generation 1,468GasRatchaburi Power 1,400GasBLCP Power 1,347CoalElectricity Generating930GasGlow IPP 713GasGlobal Power Synergy 700GasGheco-One 660CoalEastern Power&Electric 350GasCompaniesFuel TypeContractedContractedCapacity(MW)Capacity(MW)CogenerationCogenerationAmata B.Grimm Power(10 projects)870.0GasGlobal Power Synergy(2 projects)100.0GasGulf JP(6 projects)540.0GasPTT Global Chemical 60.0GasGlow SPP(8 projects)590.0Gas,CoalDCAP65.0GasGulf TS(4 projects)360.0GasIRPC 45.0Gas,Coal,FuelRojana Power (2 projects)180.0GasRenewableGlow Energy(3 projects)194.0GasEA Solar(3 projects)270.0SolarNational Power Supply(2 projects)180.0CoalNatural Energy Development 55.0SolarRathcaburi world Congeneration(2 projects)180.0GasSPPIC41.0SolarSSUT(2 projects)180.0GasSermsang Palang Ngan40.0SolarTOP SPP(2 projects)180.0GasBCPG30.0SolarBangpa-in Cogeneration(2 projects)180.0GasEA Wind(3 projects)126.0WindB.Grimm BIP Power(2 projects)180.0GasFirst Korat Wind90.0WindBanpong Utilities(2 projects)180.0GasKR2 90.0WindIRPC Clean Power(2 projects)180.0GasKRS Tree 90.0WindSiam Power Generation(1 project)90.0GasKR One90.0WindRenewableChaiyaphum Wind Farm 80.0WindNational Power Plants(3 projects)116.0Husk,BiomassKhaokor Wind Power 60.0WindA.T.Power 20.0HuskWatabak Wind 60.0WindMoong Charoen Biomass 15.5HuskTPI Polene Power(3 projects)163.0WasteMitrphol Bio-Power(4 projects)76.8BagasseMitrphol Bio-Power(5 projects)103.0Bagasse,HuskKhonburi Power Piant 22.0BagasseKaset Thai Bio Power60.0BagasseKhon Kaen Sugar Power Plant 20.0BagasseES Power(2 projects)40.0BagasseGulf Yala Green 20.2Para-wood residueThai Ekaluck Power 38.0BagasseBuayai Bio Power25.0 BiomassRuamphol Biopower38.0BagasseCompaniesFuel TypeCompaniesFuel TypeFirmNon-FirmContractedContractedCapacity(MW)Capacity(MW)Solar BiomassSolar Power(38 projects)223.4Erawan Power(4 projects)32.0Bangchak Solar Energy(13 projects)95.0Advance Clean Power(3 projects)24.0Equator Solar(18 projects)91.0Mitr Phol Bio Power(4 projects)26.2Siam Solar Energy(7 projects)80.0Songkhla Biomass(2 projects)18.2Rang Ngern Solution(11 projects)87.0Oscar Save The World(2 projects)17.617 Anyavee Holding(13 projects)75.0Thip Kamphangphet Bio Energy(2 projects)16.0B.Grim Yanhee Solar Power(8 projects)59.7 Thai Roong Ruang Electricity Generating(2 projects)16.0Solarco(6 projects)57.0Advance Agro Power Plant(2 projects)16.0Power Technology International(9 projects)55.6BiogasEnergy Serve(10 projects)61.5Energy Plus(6 projects)13.6WRP Energy(8 projects)*48.0KS Bio-Plus(3 projects)10.1Solarwa (5 projects)38.5KS Bio-Plus(3 projects)10.1WindTSM Bio Energy(2 projects)8.0Wind Energy Development(2 projects)10.0EH&Renewable8.0Inter Fareast Wind International 10.0Sanguanwongse Energy8.0Lom Ligor project 9.0WasteTheppana Wind Farm 6.9PJT Technology(3 projects)14.5Lam Takhong Wind2.5C&G Environmental Protection(Thailand)9.8Green Power Energy9.0Super Earth Energy 69.0Ratchaburi-EEP Renewable Energy8.0CompaniesCompaniesThailand Industry Outlook 2021-23 Power Generation6Krungsri ResearchSituationNational electricity consumption declined by 3.1%to 187,046 gigawatt-hours(GWh)in 2020(Figure 8).Demand dropped across the year with the spread of COVID-19 and the accompanying slowdown in the economy.This was manifested in historically severe drops in demand for electricity in the business(-10.5%)and industrial sectors(-4.6%),which together account for 67.4%of national demand for electricity.Businesses that reported the most acute slide in electricity consumption tended to be those connected to tourism,including hotels(for which demand slid 36.4%),restaurants(-18.4%),department stores(-15.5%),and apartments and guesthouses(-9.6%).In the industrial sector,declines were largest in textile production(-18.9%),auto assembly(-18.7%),steel and basic metals(-8.9%),and chemicals(-4.1%).However,in the household sector,the upsurge in working from home(especially during the second quarter)helped to move demand in the opposite direction,and for all of 2020,this jumped 7.4%.Peak demand fell 7.2%to 28,636.7 MW,down from a record-breaking of 30,853.2 MW in 2019.2020 national power generation fell 2.9%to 205,995 GWh.EGAT(providers of 32.3%of total national supply)increased generation by 1.9%,private-sector power generators(53.4%of total supply)cut their contribution by 9.3%.Within the private sector,IPPs(22.0%of total supply)reduced output by 17.9%,while SPPs(26.0%of total supply)and VSPPs(5.4%of total supply)cut their output by 2.1%and 2.5%,respectively(Figure 9).In terms of power sources,electricity generation from natural gas(55.3%of all power generation)and renewables(10.0%of supply)dropped by respectively 6.3%and 4.2%,while supply from coal(17.9%)and imports(14.3%)rose by 2.8%and 15.7%.In 2020,installed capacity for renewable-generated electricity under contract to sell into the grid rose 1.4%to 9,053 MW5/(Figure 10),with this rising by 3.3%for biogas electricity production,3.1%for waste-to-energy and 2.7%for biomass.However,actual electricity generation is only 53%of the way toward meeting the target laid out in AEDP2015 of having 16,778 MW of renewable-powered supply by 2036.By segment,biomass generation has performed best and supply is now 63%of the target,followed by waste-to-energy(59%of target supply),small hydro(51%),solar(50%),wind(50%)and biogas(43%)(Figure 11).In 2020,a total of 979 renewables-based SPPs and VSPPs had passed their official commercial operation date(COD)and were thus supplying power to the grid.This includes those operating under the Adder and FiT programs,and all together,these had a combined contract capacity of 5,004.1 MW.In the year,the number of waste-to-energy projects rose 3.6%,while that of biomass increased by 2.0%(Box 2).5/Includes capacity that is used outside the system(e.g.,electricity that is produced by a business for its own use)but does not include 2,906 MW of capacity from large-scale hydro.Figure 8:Electricity Consumption Growth(by sector)Source:EPPOFigure 9:Power Generation(by producer)0501001502002502012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020ImportedVSPPSPPIPPEGAT000 GWhSource:EPPO-12-8-404812162012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020ResidentialBusinessIndustrialTotal,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020BiomassSolarBiogasWindSmall HydroMSWMWSource:Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency(DEDE)Note:Data was accumulated,including off grid power generationExcluding large hydro power 2,906.40 MWFigure 10:Installed Capacity of Renewable EnergyFigure 11:Renewable Energy Generation Capacity and AEDP*Target(as of 2020)Source:DEDE Note:Including off grid power generation*Alternative Energy Development Plan0 0%BiogasWindSolarSmall hydroMSWBiomass324 of 550 MW190 of 376 MW547 of 1,280 MW(target)63%selling to the grid(COD)59QPPC%3,501 of 5,570 MW1,507 of 3,002 MW2,983 of 6,000 MWThailand Industry Outlook 2021-23 Power Generation7Box 2:Current state of renewables-based electricity production in ThailandType of renewableDevelopments within the segmentNo.of projects and installed capacity(cumulative total,2020)SolarSince the second half of 2016,installed solar capacity has increased substantially led by solar farms operated by state bodies and agricultural cooperatives,and from rooftop installations thanks to falling costs of purchasing and installing solar panels.The cost of a solar cell has dropped from USD 79/watt in 1976 to just USD 0.23/watt in 2019,falling by an average of 12.7%per year.WindIn 2016,the government resolved the legal issues on the use of certain types of land.And following this,SPPs that had been holding back operations were increasingly able to supply wind-powered electricity to the grid under the adder system.As a result,between 2016 and 2018,the number of wind farms had almost doubled.BiomassIn 2014-2015,many biomass producers encountered problems sourcing for raw material(rice husk,wood,and byproducts of oil palm processing).This pushed up operating costs to the point that many producers became loss-making,and thus stopped supplying power to the grid.As a result,many projects operating under the adder system had their contracts canceled.However,most of these then changed their set up to sell under the FiT system,which better reflects operators costs,and since then,an increasing volume of electricity generated from biomass were sold to the national grid.BiogasThe majority of biogas producers are involved in livestock operations or downstream consumers of waste products generated from agricultural processing.Most projects operated by these players are running under government investment incentives,such as those pushing for larger biogas production by livestock operators or projects promoting biogas technology.As supply of input becomes more secure,the number of active players in this segment have also been rising.Waste-to-energyOver 2016-2019,in an attempt to find effective solutions for waste disposal,the government stepped up efforts to source electricity from waste-to-energy projects.However,growth has been limited by legal issues surrounding public-private partnerships and city planning laws,while local communities have again objected to having waste-to-energy plants operating near residential areas.In addition,concentrated,large-scale local sources of inputs are limited,which meant that only 550 MW of power is supplied by waste-to-energy projects(or 3.3%of the target in AEDP2015).Small hydro powerState purchases of electricity from private sector small-hydro projects account for a very small share of national electricity purchases.This is because the majority of these projects involve small-scale dams or levees,which are built to hold water that is then used to produce electricity for local communities.Source:ERC,compiled by Krungsri ResearchKrungsri ResearchWindAs of 2020No.of ProjectContracted CapacityNo.of ProjectContracted CapacityNo.of ProjectContracted Capacity(MW)(MW)(MW)PPA signed(not yet selling)-216.0 216.0 Selling to the grid(COD)3270.0 836.9 11306.9 Total3270.0 1052.9 13322.9 TotalSPPVSPPBiogasAs of 2020No.of ProjectContracted CapacityNo.of ProjectContracted CapacityNo.of ProjectContracted Capacity(MW)(MW)(MW)PPA signed(not yet selling)-3 8.0 3 8.0 Selling to the grid(COD)-179 332.2 180 332.2 Total-182 340.2 183 340.2 TotalSPPVSPPWasteAs of 2020No.of ProjectContracted CapacityNo.of ProjectContracted CapacityNo.of ProjectContracted Capacity(MW)(MW)(MW)PPA signed(not yet selling)-5 33.5 5 33.5 Selling to the grid(COD)3 163.0 39 166.4 42 329.4 Total3 163.0 44 199.9 47 362.9 TotalSPPVSPPSolarAs of 2020No.of ProjectContracted CapacityNo.of ProjectContracted CapacityNo.of ProjectContracted Capacity(MW)(MW)(MW)PPA signed(not yet selling)-Selling to the grid(COD)7436.0 5542,280.4 5612,716.4 Total7436.0 5542,280.4 5612,716.4 TotalSPPVSPPSmall hydro powerAs of 2020No.of ProjectContracted CapacityNo.of ProjectContracted CapacityNo.of ProjectContracted Capacity(MW)(MW)(MW)PPA signed(not yet selling)-Selling to the grid(COD)-4 0.9 4 0.9 Total-4 0.9 4 0.9 TotalSPPVSPPBiomassAs of 2020No.of ProjectContracted CapacityNo.of ProjectContracted CapacityNo.of ProjectContracted Capacity(MW)(MW)(MW)PPA signed(not yet selling)-1345.5 1345.5 Selling to the grid(COD)8216.7 1731,102.4 1811,319.1 Total8216.7 1861,147.9 1941,364.6 TotalSPPVSPPThailand Industry Outlook 2021-23 Power Generation8Krungsri ResearchOutlookOver 2021-2023,the outlook for private-sector electricity generators will improve,boosted by economic recovery and government support to invest more in the sector,as specified in the PDP.Total domestic electricity consumption is forecast to increase by an average of 2.8-3.8%per year6/.This will be driven by an anticipated recovery in the economy(Figure 12)that will lift demand for electricity in both the business and industrial sectors.Demand from the household sector will also continue to rise,helped by the periodic need to work from home,especially in 2021.Power Development Plan for 2018-2037(PDP2018,1st revision)encourages the expansion of private-sector installed capacity and investment in new power stations with the following goals.The plan targets 56,431 MW of installed capacity by 2037(Table 4).This supply will come from the following sources:(i)natural gas contribution will be unchanged at 53%;(ii)electricity generated from renewables will play a larger role with their contribution rising to 21%from 20%;and(iii)coal-fueled generation will fall to 11%from 12%(Table 5).The roadmap laid out in the PDP2018 and AEDP2018 will underpin increased investment in electricity generation from renewables.The overall target for the purchase of renewables-fueled electricity is set at 18,696 MW by 2037,comprising:(i)520 MW from power plants per planned government support for the industry.Between 2022 and 2024,400 MW will come from waste-to-energy sources and 120 MW will be from government-run biogas facilities in the south of Thailand(“Pracharat”power plant);and(ii)18,176 MW from renewables projects per the AEDP,which includes 1,933 MW of new capacity from local,community-based power generation capacity from biomass,biogas(from waste water and energy crops),and solar hybrid systems in 2020-2024,and 270 MW of wind power which will come on-stream in 2022-2024(Table 6).From 2024,consumer electricity tariffs are expected to average THB3.64/unit,up from THB 3.58/unit specified in the earlier version of the plan.This is partly due to buying electricity from community-level producers,for which the government has set initial purchase price at THB 3-5/unit,aimed at encouraging greater investment in renewables.6/On the assumption that(i)energy-saving measures cover 1bn units per year,and(ii)some private-sectorplayers producing power for themselves(IPS)do not distribute power to EGAT and/or sell this directly totheir customers,but at present data is only available for those generating more than 1 MW.Figure 12:Trend of Electricity Demandand Economic GrowthSource:EPPO/forecast by Krungsri Research-8-404820142015201620172018201920202021F2022F2023F%Table 4:Total Capacity under PDP2018 Revision 1Power capacityPDP2018(MW)Installed capacity as of 201846,090 Retired capacity(2018-2037)-25,310 New capacity(2018-2037)56,431Total capacity as of 203777,211Power capacityPDP2015(MW)Installed capacity as of 201437,612 Retired capacity(2015-2036)-24,736 New capacity(2015-2036)57,459Total capacity as of 203670,335Table 5:Share of Fuel used in Power Generation(%)Fuel typePDP2015PDP2018PDP2018 rev.1Natural gas375353Coal231211Imported hydro1599Renewable energy202021Nuclear500Energy saving066Source:EPPO,PDP2018 Rev.1(Oct 2020)Source:EPPO,PDP2018 Rev.1(Oct 2020)GDPElectricity consumptionThailand Industry Outlook 2021-23 Power Generation9Krungsri ResearchThe above factors will encourage more investment in the three types of power generation projects,as described below.For IPPs,there should be competitive bidding for a large number of new power stations in the coming period.The government will call for bids for about 700 MW of capacity in the west of the country in 2021-2022,to replace 8,300 MW of natural gas-powered plants that will gradually reach the end of their supply contracts and lose access to the grid over 2025-2027.SPPs would increase installed generation capacity and investment in new power stations,especially natural gas-fueled cogeneration power plants which contracts will expire in 2019-20257/.SPPs will also invest in renewables in the form of mixed-fuel power generation,or SPP hybrid firms,which Thai authorities are increasingly supporting.These power suppliers will now be paid for the next 20 years at a feed-in tariff rate of THB 3.69/unit,up from the THB3.66/unit received in 2019.VSPPs are expected to step up investment from 2021,especially in solar rooftop,biomass,biogas and waste-to-energy electricity projects.In line with the PDP and AEDP,the government is supporting these segments by increasing purchases of electricity from these suppliers.For biomass producers,the government plans to buy 100 MW of supply annually from community-level producers and another 60 MW annually from the Pracharat power plant in the South.For the biogas segment,the government intends to purchase 100 MW of electricity annually from community-level power plants generating electricity from energy crops.For waste-to-energy electricity projects,the government plans to buy 400 MW of electricity over 2018-2037.These players are also generally competitive in terms of access to raw materials and costs.For players active in wind power,the government plans to buy-in another 270 MW of electricity from wind farms over 2022-2024,by which time EGAT should have completed its work on the high-voltage power lines in the Northeast and South,which are required to connect commercial wind farms to the grid.In the coming period,competition in the sector will tend to stiffen as large players are incentivized to invest in additional capacity by the provisions of the PDP.These specify that sufficient baseload power plants be ready and connected to the grid,though the PDP also opens the door to making additional purchases of electricity from the private sector,especially for renewables.As a result,larger operators(IPPs and SPPs)that have access to the requisite financing and technology will have the opportunity to invest in new power plants running on renewable sources and to expand their installed renewables capacity.At the same time,players that have a background in engineering,procurement and construction have the necessary expertise to install electrical systems,or those that manufacture solar equipment.These operators have started to supply renewable power to the grid.This increased level of activity will then feed into greater levels of competition,especially for players in the biomass and biogas segments,where competitive bidding8/may also work to suppress profits.7/This specifies that SPPs should build new power stations and that the electricity produced from these should be sold to EGAT.These power plants should generate electricity from the same sources as before,and payment for this should be set at the ratefor electricity produced from natural gas or coal.8/Bids are arranged in order of the fixed FiT discount rate from high to low.VSPPs that make the offer with the steepest discountwill be considered for selection,with consideration given to the potential of the generating system used and the quantity ofelectricity that will be supplied to the grid,relative to target purchases.Source:EPPO,PDP2018 Rev.1(Oct 2020)Table 6:Renewable Energy Capacity under PDP2018 Rev.1202020212022202320242037(1)Government support520 -Waste energy400400400400 -Biomass60120120120(2)Under AEDP18,176 -Biomass(community)200300400500600600 -Biogas-crops(community)200300400500600600 -Biogas-waste(community)100150183183183183 -Solar hybrid(community)200300390470550550 -New wind901802701,485 -Small hydro(EGAT)-69 -Floating solar and hydro(EGAT)45454569692,725 -Solar501001502002508,740 -Biomass-2,780 -Biogas-400 -Industrial waste-44Total795 1,195 2,118 2,622 3,04218,696Power plantContracted capacity(MW)Thailand Industry Outlook 2021-23 Power Generation10Krungsri ResearchFuture challenges to the industry will tend to revolve around the use of technology and innovation to produce power from renewables and how this plays out with regard to the efficiency of power production,and its environmental impacts and costs.(i)The sharp drop in the cost of solar cells now allows solar energy to compete effectively on price with power generated from other sources.This is especially true for rooftop solar installations on domestic residences,office buildings and factories.(ii)Investment in the production of semi-solid batteries will be an important factor in raising the efficiency of renewables power production(e.g.,for solar-and wind-powered electricity,or for hybrid sources of power).(iii)Developing smart energy storage systems(ESS)will increase the efficiency of energy storage and use.At present,Global Power Synergy(GPSC)is working with PTT Global Chemicals(GC)to develop an ESS to increase the efficiency and security of power distribution to offices and to the Center for Innovation and Technology in Rayong and to the pilot smart city being run by the Vidyasirimedhi Institute of Science and Technology.In addition,changes to government policy have opened the way to greater private-sector participation in energy production,for example through the introduction of private power purchase agreements.These provide a mechanism for private sector players to sell electricity directly to one another,and this will then lead to consumers also acting as electricity producers and retailers9/(or as so-called prosumers).This will be especially important for producers of solar power because recently,the cost of generating electricity from solar sources has collapsed,falling from THB 6-7/unit in 2016 to just THB 2/unit now,and this will incentivize consumers to increasingly begin producing power themselves,although in practice,technological problems persist that still need to be solved before renewables can play a major role in powering the grid.These include overcoming the impacts of fluctuations in power output on supply to the grid,removing technological restrictions on energy storage,and overhauling the electricity grid and related systems so that these are sufficiently flexiblethat they can serve the needs of prosumers(e.g.,facilitating purchases of electricity and user management).9/EGAT defines this as production by the consumer.Under this scheme,consumers that havea solar rooftop installation are able to sell any surplus electricity to nearby houses.TrendsFactors affecting growthTailwindsHeadwindsNatural gas(baseload power stations)Healthy growth.Bidding will take place for new power stations to replace those which contracts will end in 2021-2022,although the bidding process may be delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.The revised PDP for 2020-2037 provides for baseload power generation from natural gas to ensue energy security(the target for the proportion of energy produced from natural gas by 2037 was increased to 53%from 37%in PDP2015).Natural gas reserves in the Gulf of Thailand are being depleted,so LNG imports will rise.However,imported gas is more expensive and consumer prices for electricity might increase.CoalGrowth will be limited due to concerns over the environmental impact of coal-fired power plants.New investment may have to wait until after 2027.At present,the strategic environmental assessment(SEA)is underway to support the proposed construction of a new coal-fired power station in the south of Thailand.Due to objections from local communities,the contribution of coal to the national power generation mix has been reduced.Under PDP2018,coals share in the electricity generation mix is reduced to 11%by 2037(from 23%in PDP2015).Box 3:Trends in private-sector power generation in 2021-2023,by fuel typeSource:Krungsri ResearchThailand Industry Outlook 2021-23 Power Generation11Krungsri ResearchTrendsFactors affecting growthTailwindsHeadwindsSolarSteady growth.Most new investment is in private sector rooftop solar and community solar hybrid projects.New investment in the production of private rooftop solar cells.Over 2020-2024,the government will buy a total of 250 MW of power(50 MW per year)from privately-installed rooftop solar projects and 550 MW of electricity from community solar hybrid producers.Installation costs for solar cells are falling steadily.The technological cost of converting solar to electrical power remains high,and depend on a lot of related factors such as the size of power production and the type of solar cells used.BiomassSteady growth.Most investments will be in community power production and SPP hybrid firms as these are competitive on price.The PDP and AEDP plans specify that the government will buy electricity from community power generators:100 MW of power in 2021-2023,rising to 300 MW in 2024.120 MW from the Pracharatpower plant in the South during 2022-2024.These suppliers are supported by the FiT system,which for 2021 pays THB4.28-5.39/unit(the rate varies with installed capacity),while average production cost is only THB2.8/unit.Operators may experience shortage of inputs,which would keep cost elevated.Also,players will need to engage in competitive bidding.Biogas(from waste water and energy crops)Steady growth.New investment will tend to be made by companies producing electricity for their own use from waste materials that they have on hand,with any surplus production sold on to MEA/PEA.The PDP and AEDP plans specify that in 2022 and 2023,the government will purchase from community-level producers of electricity(from biogas produced from energy crops)of 100 MW,rising to 300 MW in 2024.The government will buy biogas-generated electricity made from wastewater of 50 MW in 2021,and another 33 MW in 2022.Suppliers of biogas made from wastewater and energy crops qualify for a per-unit feed-in tariff of either THB3.76 or THB5.39,and are exempt from requirements to engage in competitive bidding.There is insufficient input that is commercially-viable to use in the generation of biogas.Hence,the high marginal production costs make investment not feasible.Box 3:Trends in private-sector power generation in 2021-2023,by fuel type(cont.)Source:Krungsri ResearchThailand Industry Outlook 2021-23 Power Generation12Krungsri ResearchTrendsFactors affecting growthTailwindsHeadwindsWaste-to-energySteady growth.Operators of waste collection and sorting facilities will see the best investment opportunities.Businesses that focus on collecting and separating waste will see better opportunities to grow investment.Starting in 2022,PDP2018 requires the government to by 400 MW of electricity generated at waste-to-energy plants.Electricity from landfill waste-to-energy projects qualifies for a feed-in tariff of THB5.60/unit,and players do not need to engage in competitive bidding.There are few concentrated sources of waste(1 MW of generation capacity consumes 100 tonnes of waste per day).The quality of waste separation remains poor,and this means plants can cause severe air pollution.WindSteady growth.Investment opportunities will favor large-scale investors who have the necessary funds,technological understanding,and access to areas that are served by suitable transmission lines.Most investment will be carried out by SPPs in areas with Sor Por Kor title ownership that has passed the relevant inspection criteria.(This is land which use is controlled and which cannot be sold.)Currently,most projects are either under construction or distributing power to the grid.The government plans to buy 90 MW of wind-generated power per year in 2022-2024.Most high-potential sites are in national parks that are difficult to access,and connection to transmission lines can be problematic.Hydro powerGrowth will be limitedMost projects will be carried out by the public sector.Included in the PDP2018 under floating solar power and general hydroelectric.The majority of sites with potential are in national parks.Hydropower is a type of power generation particular to EGAT.Source:Krungsri ResearchBox 3:Trends in private-sector power generation in 2021-2023,by fuel type(cont.)Thailand Industry Outlook 2021-23 Power Generation13Krungsri Research Krungsri Researchs view:Players will see stronger revenue growth in 2021-2023,supported by greater demand for electricity in line with the improving economic outlook.However,competition in the sector has grown more intense,as there is increasing influence from renewables,which could cap revenue growth.IPPs:Revenue should rise driven by stronger domestic consumption of electricity and higher returns from overseas investments.Domestically,there will be more investment in renewables,encouraged by the revised PDP2018 plan,which allows competitive bidding for only 700 megawatts of generation capacity to replace gas-fired power stations in 2021-2022.Overseas,there will be more investments in new natural gas-and coal-fired power stations and renewables(especially solar and wind)in Myanmar,Laos PDR,Indonesia,the Philippines,Australia and Japan.SPPs:Revenue will rise steadily due to:(i)cogeneration natural gas power stations(that will reach the end of their contracts over 2019-2025)will still be able to supply power to industrial parks and estates;(ii)new renewables projects in the form of SPP hybrid firms,which will enjoy fuel costs that are lower than consumer prices for electricity(costs about THB 1.81/unit whereas consumer prices are about THB 3.60/unit);and(iii)new electricity production in the Eastern Economic Corridor(EEC),where demand will rise in the near future.VSPPs:Revenue will continue to grow driven by stronger demand,but investment opportunities may be restricted to producers that are beneficiaries of government support measures laid out in the revised PDP and AEDP,notably private rooftop solar,biomass,biogas and waste-to-energy projects from which the government plans to increase electricity purchases.New entrants to the market that are investing in biomass,biogas and waste-to-energy projects may experience difficulty sourcing for input,while government purchases of electricity from new wind-powered projects should start in 2022-2024.However,competition will tend to intensify because existing operators have been expanding generation capacity and there have been several new entrants.Notably,there is increasing influence from players with huge financial and technological strengths,such as IPPs and SPPs and players that have a background in engineering,procurement and construction because they have the necessary expertise to install electrical systems,or those that manufacture solar equipment.To build new revenue streams,these operators have started to supply renewable power to the grid.KRUNGSRI RESEARCHSomprawin Manprasert,Ph.D.Head of Research Division and Chief Economist Phornphan PhoksuphatHead of Macroeconomic and Industry ResearchMacroeconomic TeamSujit ChaivichayachatHead of Macroeconomic ResearchChamadanai Marknual,Ph.D.Senior EconomistChurailuk PholsriSenior Economist(Forecasting)Soison LohsuwannakulSenior Economist(Regional Economy)Sathit TalaengsatyaSenior Economist(Regional Economy)Industry TeamSarun SunansathapornHead of Industry ResearchTaned MahattanalaiSenior Analyst(Digital)Poonsuk NinkitsaranontSenior Analyst(Healthcare,Mobile Operators)Piyanuch SathapongpakdeeSenior Analyst(Transport&Logistics)Narin TunpaiboonSenior Analyst(Power Generation,Modern Trade,Chemicals,Medical Devices)Puttachard LunkamAnalyst(Hotels,Construction Contractors,Construction Materials,Industrial Estate)Patchara KlinchuanchunAnalyst(Real Estate)Wanna YongpisanphobAnalyst(Automobile,Electronics&Electrical Appliances,Food&Beverages)Chaiwat SowcharoensukAnalyst(Agriculture)Aphinya KhanunthongAnalyst(Energy,Petrochemicals)Intelligence TeamPimnara Hirankasi,Ph.D.Head of Intelligence TeamPunjaphut PrasitdechsakulSenior AnalystRachot LeingchanAnalystArpakorn NopparattayapornAnalystChutipha KlungjaturavetAnalystMIS and Reporting TeamSuratchanee SomprasongAdministratorThamon Sernsuksakul AdministratorChirdsak SrichaitonMIS OfficerWongsagon KeawuttungMIS OfficerDisclaimerAll material presented in this report,unless specifically indicated otherwise,is under copyright to Krungsri Research.None of the material,nor its content,nor anycopy of it,may be altered in anyway,or copied to any other party,without the prior express written permission of Krungsri Research.This document is based onpublic information believed to be reliable.Nevertheless,Krungsri Research would not affirm the accuracy and completeness of this information.We accept noliability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content.Information,opinions and estimates contained in thisreport are our own,which are not necessarily the opinions of Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited and its affiliates.It reflects a judgment at its original dateof publication by Krungsri Research and are subject to change without notice.For research subscription,contact
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Why ESG Matters for Medtech in the Asia-Pacific RegionNearly 70%of medtech customers surveyed expect.
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1SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023HIGHLIGHTS2SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023HIGHLIGHTSISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute(formerly Institute of Southeast Asian Studies)is an autonomous organisation established in 1968.It is a regional centre dedicated to the study of socio-political,security,and economic trends and developments in Southeast Asia and its wider geostrategic and economic environment.The Institutes research programmes are grouped under Regional Economic Studies(RES),Regional Social and Cultural Studies(RSCS)and Regional Strategic and Political Studies(RSPS).The Institute is also home to the ASEAN Studies Centre(ASC),the Temasek History Research Centre(THRC)and the Singapore APEC Study Centre.The Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme(CCSEAP)was established in 2020 to examine the phenomenon of climate change,its impact,and policy responses across the regions.The Programme hopes to cultivate a network of scholars at the forefront of climate change research and build on ISEAS thought leadership to advance climate discourse and knowledge in Southeast Asia through a series of publications and seminars.The Programme conducts an annual Southeast Asia Climate Outlook survey.Inaugurated in 2020,the survey probes the attitudes and concerns of Southeast Asian citizens towards climate change,governmental actions,and the role of different stakeholders in climate action.It aims to obtain views on climate change impacts,mitigation,adaptation,food security,agricultural production,city-level climate measures,renewable energy and the transition to low-carbon economies.The report can be cited as:Seah,S.et al.,Southeast Asia Climate Outlook:2023 Survey Report(Singapore:ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute,2023)The Southeast Asia Climate Outlook:2023 Survey Reportis published by the Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme atISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and available electronically at www.iseas.edu.sgIf you have any comments or enquiries about the survey,please email us at climatechangeiseas.edu.sgPublished on 21 September 2023Print ISSN:2737498XOnline ISSN:27374998REPORT COMPILED AND WRITTEN BY:Sharon SeahMelinda MartinusMirza Sadaqat HudaElyssa Kaur LudherQiu JiahuiThe authors are researchers at the Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme and the ASEAN Studies Centre,ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace,Singapore 119614Tel:(65)6870 4509 Fax:(65)6778 1735All rights reserved.Design and print publication supported by:01SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023HIGHLIGHTSREALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTURECONTENTSRESPONDENTSPROFILEABOUT THE SURVEY02CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUESCLIMATE LEADERSHIP AND COOPERATIONHIGHLIGHTS REFERENCESSECTION ISECTION IISECTION IIISECTION VSECTION IV040914294247ABOUT THE SURVEYJune 2023 saw global records set for the highest temperatures and lowest sea ice coverage observed in any June in 174 years.Closer to home,the highest ever temperatures were recorded in Vietnam and Laos in May,and Thailand in April(Bangkok Post,2023b)when mercury levels exceeded 44 degrees Celsius.As the climate crisis grows more serious,the only certainty the region has is that these temperature records will continue to reach new highs.With the region expecting to enter an El Nio season,warmer weather,heatwaves and drought will exacerbate forest fires and haze pollution across Indonesia,Malaysia and Singapore(Maulia et al.,2023)and introduce new economic shocks to the regions agriculture-dependent countries(The Economist Intelligence Unit,2023).It is hardly a future the region is prepared for.Since 2020,the annual Southeast Asia Climate Outlook Survey Report has been tracking the regions public perceptions on pertinent issues as the climate crisis develops.The survey covers topics ranging across impacts,solutions and policy strategies.Its findings provide policymakers,businesses and other stakeholders with a barometer of region and country-specific sentiment towards climate action.The Survey is divided into four sections:Section I presents the respondents profile including nationality,age,gender,education,affiliation,country and city of residence and source of climate news.Section II compares the current climate realities as experienced by respondents and the expectations they hold of different stakeholders in climate action.This section also examines the challenges of Southeast Asias climate future and what respondents are willing to do at the individual level for the sake of the climate.Section III discusses climate transition issues facing the region including fears of what a transition might bring,the use of coal,support for reduction of fossil fuel subsidies,support for a national carbon tax,potential renewable energy sources,and what ASEAN as a grouping can do to accelerate the transition.Section IV explores issues of climate leadership and cooperation in the region,including which country had the best potential to be the regions climate leader and which countries were deemed more helpful to Southeast Asias climate transition.Climate ambition in the region has grown since the first edition of this Survey in 2020.All ASEAN countries have now communicated their updated Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs or better known as climate pledges)while eight have set net zero targets.Of these,four countries have communicated what is called Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategies to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to outline their plans to mid-century.But Southeast Asia can scarcely wait for climate policy and cooperation to inch forward as this surveys results reveal the publics pragmatic concerns about climate threats as experienced.METHODOLOGYThe Survey was conducted online over a period of four weeks from 10 July to 7 August 2023.The survey comprised 39 questions in total and was completed in a median time of 12.5 minutes.A total of 2,225 Southeast Asian respondents from ten ASEAN member states completed the online survey which drew from eight categories of affiliation:(1)Academia,Think-tanks and Research institutions,(2)Private Sector,(3)Government,(4)Regional organisations,inter-government and international organisations,(5)Civil society and non-government organisations(6)Media,(7)Students,(8)Retirees and Others.1 The survey was offered in English and translated into five languages-Bahasa Indonesia,Burmese,Khmer,Thai,and Vietnamese.The data is weighted by population size and age demographics using the World Population Prospects 2022 published by the United Nations(United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs&Population Division,2022)and the ASEAN Statistical Highlights 2022(ASEAN Secretariat,2022).Responses from countries who make up a larger share of the ASEAN 1 The category“Others”includes those who identify as freelance,gig-economy or unemployed persons.population,as well as larger age groups within each country,are given higher weights to reflect more accurately the population being studied.This is with the exception of Questions 30-36,for which regional averages are derived from a 10%equal weightage for each country to reflect regional political consensus,wherein each ASEAN country has an equal say in decision-making.Time series data from past Surveys have also been weighted accordingly and may differ from those reported in their respective Survey Reports(which were unweighted).These weightages only apply to region-wide numbers and do not affect breakdowns by country,affiliation,age or other groups.A strict set of criteria during the data cleaning process to maintain data quality and integrity was applied.All percentages in this report are rounded to one decimal place,and may not add up to exactly 100%.The results of the survey are meant to present a general view of the prevailing climate attitudes in the region and are not predictive of future events.04SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023HIGHLIGHTSNational government Businesses and industries Individuals Civil Society Organisations Multilateral OrganisationsMajority of regional respondents believe that their national government is aware of climate threats but does not have sufficient resources to address them(35.7%).About a quarter think that their government is not giving enough attention to climate change and another group believes their government considers climate change an urgent national priority and has allocated sufficient resources to address it(24.8%).How would you rate your national governments policies and actions taken in support of climate change?HIGHLIGHTSGOVERNMENTS ARE NOT DOING ENOUGH TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE 01EXPECTATIONS OF STAKEHOLDERS IN CLIMATE ACTION02National governments are seen as having the greatest responsibility to tackle climate change and paying for it.Businesses and industries are second.However,businesses are seen to be falling short in taking climate action.The private sector is seen as the second most passive stakeholder whereas civil society is the most active.This needs to be reversed if Southeast Asia hopes to take greater strides towards climate action.My government does not consider climate change as a threatI dont know my governmentsview on climate changeMy government is aware of the threats but does not allocate sufficient resources to address themMy government is not giving enough attention to climate change25.0%My government considers climate change an urgent national priority and allocates sufficient resources to address this threat35.7$.8%8.6%5.9%Most Responsible for taking climate changeShould bear the greatest cost for climate changeHas been most active in tackling climate changeTop 3 in ASEAN05SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023HIGHLIGHTSCLIMATE CHANGE URGENCYThe proportion of respondents expressing the highest level of urgency on climate has come down from 68.6%in 2021 to 49.4%in 2023.Yet there is an almost equal share of respondents(41.9%)who view the need to monitor climate change.This raises the question of whether the association of immediate problems such as energy shortages and insecurity are with climate impacts,geopolitical problems or domestic issues.What is your view on climate change?0372.2F.0cilitate thedevelopment of regionalenergy infastructure51.9%The top three priorities for ASEAN to accelerate clean energy transition are the development of regional energy infrastructure(72.2%),the adoption of a regional renewable energy agreement(51.9%)and the establishment of a common ASEAN clean energy fund(46.0%).The development of energy infrastructure receives the most support from Indonesia respondents(83.5%).Cambodia respondents(62.7%)express the strongest support for adopting a renewable energy agreement,while Vietnam respondents(58.7%)are the regions strongest advocates for the establishment of a common fund.What should ASEAN do to accelerate a clean energy transition?(Top 3)OPTIONS TO ACCELERATE A CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION04Adopt a regionalrenewable energyagreementEstablish a commonASEAN clean energy fund70P0 %0 212022202346.6B.5h.8A.9I.4).9%It is a serious and immediate threat to the well-being of my country It is an important issue that deserves to be monitored06SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023HIGHLIGHTSFlood79.0%Floods,droughts,and heat waves were identified as the most pressing climate impacts on agriculture for Southeast Asia.Southeast Asians hoped to see increased focus on climate adaptive farming methods,agri-food technology investment and increased domestic production to improve its food resilience.CONCERNS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY06FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES05Around half of the respondents from the region(51.1)believe that fossil fuel subsidies should be cut in their country,while 31.8%are unsure and 17.1%disagree.In your view,what are the three most serious climate change impacts that your country is currently exposed to?(Top 3)Global food security is currently affected by climate change,geopolitical stress,and sustained inflation.What should be your governments priority in addressing this crisis?(Top 3)Prioritise agri-food investments,includingtechnologyEncourage climateadaptive farmingmethods67.2c.9%Increase domestic food production56.6%Heat Waves51.4%Drought47.6%Fossil fuel subsidies can hinder clean energy transition.Should fossil fuel subsidies be cut in your country?NoUnsure31.8Q.1.1%Yes07SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023HIGHLIGHTSRising energy prices and cost of living(54.2%)is the biggest concern related to energy transition,followed by energy shortages(21.7%).ASEAN respondents are less concerned about widening social inequality(8.8%)and loss of jobs(6.0%).Respondents from Singapore and Thailand are most worried about rising energy prices,while energy shortages are a key concern in Vietnam.Job losses are a bigger concern in Brunei and Cambodia than the rest of the region.What is your top concern about the impact of transitioning to renewable energy/cutting fossil fuels?LEADERSHIP IN CLIMATE INNOVATION AND ASSISTANCE07TOP TRANSITION CONCERNS08Japan is viewed as the most influential international partner in leading global climate innovation(23.7%)and sharing their climate expertise,practical ability,and technical know-how(25.8%)by regional respondents.The European Union and China came in second and third place for both roles.Which country is leading in global climate innovation?(Top 3)Who could play a more proactive role in sharing their climate expertise,practical ability,and technical know-how in your country?(Top 3)JapanEuropean UnionChina25.8.5.2%JapanEuropean UnionChina23.7.8.5%Loss of jobsWidening social inequalityRising energy prices and cost of livingEnergy shortages21.7%I do not foresee negative impacts54.2%9.2%8.8%6.0SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023HIGHLIGHTSSECTION ISECTION IPages09-12RESPONDENTSPROFILE09SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION I:RESPONDENTS PROFILEA total of 2,225 respondents from across the ten ASEAN countries responded to the survey.This was an increase from 1,386 respondents last year.The greatest proportion of respondents came from Singapore(12.5%),followed by Malaysia(11.6%)and Indonesia(11.5%)and the lowest representations from Laos(7.1%)and Brunei(7.2%).In 2022,the Philippines(14.9%)led the group with the most respondents followed by Singapore(12.4%)and Malaysia(11.2%).01Nationality02Type of City98.3%of respondents currently live in Southeast Asia.Among those residing in the region,52.5%live in metropolitan cities such as the Jakarta Metropolitan Area,Metro Manila,Greater Kuala Lumpur,Singapore,Yangon,Hanoi and Phnom Penh.39.7%live in small or mid-sized cities while 7.9%live in rural areas.2 The survey had respondents coming from lesser-known areas and cities in Southeast Asia such as Antipolo,Miri,Koh Kong,Sagaing,to name a few.Rural52.5.6%7.9%MetropolitanMid-sized2 The type of city is clustered by population size:metropolitan(1 million),mid-sized(250,000-999,999),and towns(250,000)7.1%9.8%7.2.6.6.5.2%9.3.3.5.1%Town Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Cambodia Thailand Brunei Laos10SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION I:RESPONDENTS PROFILE03Age group04GenderOf the 2,225 respondents,51.3%were of the female gender and 48.4%were male.0.3%identified as“others”.51.3male0.3%Others48.4%MaleSimilar to 2022,the biggest group of respondents was the 22 to 35 years old group(41.6%).Youths aged 16 to 21 years old overtook last years second largest age group of 36 to 45 years old adults at 21.8%.The smallest age group,similar to 2022,was those above 60 years old(3.1%).16-2122-3536-4546-60Above 6021.8A.6.2.2%3.1SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION I:RESPONDENTS PROFILE06Socio-Economic StatusRespondents were asked to self-evaluate their social economic well-being on a scale of zero to ten.Majority of Southeast Asians(53.4%)rated themselves between six and eight.39.1%of Southeast Asians rated their socio-economic well-being at five and below whereas 7.4lt that they were at the upper end of the scale.0.9%2.0%2.8%4.9%7.6 .9.5.7.2%3.2%4.2EducationIn terms of education levels,46.9%of respondents possessed a Bachelors degree or equivalent followed by 21.4%who had primary/secondary education.The third largest group was those who had post-secondary education including vocational training,technical or trade training(15.2%).The smallest group was those who possessed a doctorate or equivalent(4.3%).Primary education2.6%Doctoral degree4.3%Masters degree12.2%Post-secondary non-tertiary education15.2%Secondary education18.8chelors degree46.9%0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION I:RESPONDENTS PROFILENewspapers,broadsheets,radio,television and other mainstream major online news sites continued to be Southeast Asians top go-to source of climate news at 49.2%.This is followed by social media and online influencers or public figures at 18.1%.Conversations with family,friends and peers were ranked third place at 14.6%whereas specialised climate or environmental news sites were the second last choice at 12.3%,just above messaging app channels(e.g.Whatsapp,Telegram,Line,Signal)at 5.1%.08Top source of climate change news49.2.8%5.1.1%Mainstream news sources (e.g.newspaper,radio,television,major online news sites)Social media and online influencers/public figuresConversations with family,friends,peers etc.Specialised online news sitescovering climate change andenvironmentMessaging app channels (e.g.Whatsapp,Telegram,Signal)12.3%The largest affiliation group was those representing the private sector in business,finance or other industries at 34.4%,followed by students at 21.6%.The third largest group was those in academia,think-tanks and research institutes at 14.1%.The smallest group was persons affiliated with regional organisation,inter-government and international organisations at 2.6%and media at 4.1%.07Affiliation Business,Financeand Industry34.4%Students21.6ademia,Think-Tanks and Research Institutions14.1%Government 8.6%Civil Society and Non-Government Organisations8.1%Retirees&Others6.4%Media4.1%Regional Organisations,Inter-Government and International Organisations2.6SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION I:RESPONDENTS PROFILESECTION IIREALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTUREPages14-2714SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:REALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTURE09What is your view of climate change?Majority of Southeast Asians either feel that climate change poses an immediate threat or that it is important and deserves to be monitored.The biggest group of Southeast Asians view the phenomenon with heightened concerns that climate change poses an immediate threat to the well-being of their country and themselves(49.4%).What is worrying is perhaps the level of climate threat urgency has dropped from 68.8%in 2021 to 49.4%in 2023.This may be tied to the current preoccupations of the region with a post-pandemic recovery fraught with dangers of rising inflationary pressures,increasing energy and food prices and threat of supply chain disruptions that may take away jobs.The second largest group feels that the issue is not critical yet and deserves to be monitored(41.9%)which indicates that climate change is not a top-of-mind issue.This relatively more sanguine group of respondents is led by Myanmar(56.8%)which is currently preoccupied with its immediate political future,followed by Malaysia which has also been undergoing major political changes in the last year and finally by Indonesia(46.3%),a country that is preparing for major elections campaign in the coming months.The climate deniers are those who say there is no scientific basis for climate change(1.9%),or that it is not a threat(2.3%)or that it is a long-term threat but will not impact them in their lifetime(4.5%)form a very small group.15.8%of Lao respondents say that it is a long-term threat that will not impact them in their lifetime whereas 8.8%of Cambodians think there is no scientific basis.70P0 %0 212022202346.6B.5%6.4h.8%0.0%0.5%0.8%0.4A.9I.4%2.3%4.5%1.9%4.2).9%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VNNationality49.4A.9.5D.2%9.7.6%8.8%9.7P.2F.3(.5%8.2A.8.8.5I.8).5V.8V.67.0C.7G.76.2G.3%7.7P.47.8%7.8X.1%8.8%4.5%REGIONSerious and immediate threat to the well-being of my country Important issue that deserves to be monitoredLong-term threat and will not impact me in my lifetime Not a threat to me or my countryNo scientific basis for climate change5.6%5.0%5.7%5.8%5.7%5.3%5.1%4.3%6.3%2.0%2.9%3.0%0.8%2.0%0.8%1.5%2.3%0.9%0.4%1.4%2.4%0.9%1.9%2.3SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:RREALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTURENot dissimilar with previous years results,floods(79.0%)and heat waves(51.4%)and droughts(47.6%)continue to dominate the lived climate experiences of Southeast Asians.Droughts replaced the fear of rainfall-induced landslides which was a top concern last year.Given the unique and diverse geography in the tropics,it is not surprising that one or a group of countries could experience extreme flooding while another could experience droughts and heatwaves.For the Philippines,floods(81.3%)and tropical storms(77.4%)are the countrys top concerns because the Philippines stands in the path of destructive tropical storms and typhoons whereas Singapore,a low-lying island at the Equator,is more worried about sea-level rise(86.0%)and heatwaves(85.3%).Similarly for Vietnam,floods(77.8%)are its biggest concern although heatwaves and droughts are ranked second and third.In June 2023,Vietnam recorded an unprecedented heatwave that reached an all-time high of 44.3 degrees Celsius(Robinson,2023).Neighbouring Thailand and Laos were also not spared from heatwaves but for Thailand,the threat of drought is more pronounced as the impact is on food security and power generation(The Straits Times,2023).For Laos,the concern appeared to be with drought(58.2%)followed by floods(48.1%)as the country suffers intermittently from the two impacts.The two countries that were more likely to say that they are not exposed to climate impacts are Laos(21.5%)and Brunei(21.3%).10In your view,what are the three most serious climate change impacts that your country is currently exposed to?(Select 3 choices)NationalityFloodsHeat wavesDroughtTropical stormsLandslides triggeredby heavy rainSea level riseREGION79.0Q.4G.6G.49.51.0%MetropolitanMid-sized Town RuralCity TypeMy country is not exposed to climate change impacts1.4T.4G.5Q.4G.5i.5a.74.9.3X.0S.9.5P.2Q.4X.20.12.23.2.2x.7R.21.3D.7F.3C.0.1S.7w.4 .4&.60.49.4.3A.2$.7.65.7F.8 .4!.7.4#.8.11.4.92.8.2&.4.06.2E.2!.3.4%0.0!.5%0.0.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0.0i.1x.4H.1.8e.2.3e.6x.7w.8t.1i.2p.9g.8e.8P.0I.8F.83.2G.2.6E.0%3.2%8.3.9.78.8F.6G.5H.0D.2!.5$.7.24.2.73.95.1%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VNFloodsHeat wavesDroughtTropical stormsLandslides triggeredby heavy rainSea level riseMy country is not exposed to climate change impacts16SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:REALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTURESubnationalgovernmentsNational governmentIn your opinion,who are the top three groups responsible for tackling climate change in your country?(Select three choices)National governments(86.9%),businesses and industries(61.8%),and individuals(45.9%)are perceived as the top three stakeholders responsible for tackling climate change.These top three choices are similar in 2021 and 2022.Brunei respondents include multilateral organisations in their top three choices,meanwhile Vietnam respondents put subnational governments among their top three choices.The largest attribution of responsibility for climate change is still skewed towards national governments,suggesting that ASEAN citizens strongly expect their national governments to be at the forefront in articulating clearer climate visions and regulations for their economies.Businesses and individuals also rank highly for responsibility for climate action.11NationalityBusinesses andindustriesCivil societyorganisations53.1a.3p.2Q.3Q.76.6H.9t.6s.9W.4%IndividualsMultilateralorganisations86.9E.9E.37.4.7a.8#.8%.8 .02.9).37.00.2.4%.6.1F.31.3D.3.87.1c.9Q.9C.42.4B.6.0y.9.2g.1.5s.6.7.4q.5.6C.8Y.9A.6r.2T.8H.5.9).4X.9S.5S.1A.93.7H.7.5.5.4A.97.7.9%Top 3 in the RegionNational governmentIndividuals20202021,2022,2023Businesses and industriesBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VNREGIONNational governmentBusinesses and industriesIndividuals17SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:RREALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTURE12How would you rate your national governments policies and actions taken in support of climate change?The largest proportion of Southeast Asian respondents(35.7%)think that their government is aware of climate threats but does not allocate sufficient resources to address them.This view is stronger in Vietnam(45.7%),Indonesia(43.5%),and Malaysia(40.5%).Meanwhile,only 24.8%of Southeast Asian respondents agree that their government considers climate change an urgent national priority and allocates sufficient resources to address this threat.This positive view resonates with Singapore respondents(44.1%).Overall,the sceptical view that governments are aware of climate threats but have not allocated resources to address them has declined from 51.1%in 2021 to 35.7%this year.Meanwhile,the views that governments have allocated resources to address climate change or have not given attention to climate change saw an increase from 15.3%in 2022 to 24.8%and 23.3%in 2022 to 25.0%respectively.Nationality35.7%My government is aware of the threats but does not allocate sufficient resources to address them My government is not giving enough attention to climate changeMy government considers climate change an urgent national priority and allocates sufficient resources to address this threatI dont know my governments view on climate changeMy government does not consider climate change as a threat25.0$.8%8.6%REGION5.9(.1.4.5.5%7.5.5#.0.9.4!.2C.5$.3!.6.8).1.0$.1.0.51.7.7.0.4).1%8.4.0!.15.7$.71.57.6.5D.11.44.3.1.5%7.7E.7.50.9%7.8%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN5.9%4.7%5.1%5.0PE50% %5%0 212022202342.95.7%.0$.8%8.6%5.9#.3.3.0%4.5Q.1%.4%9.0%5.4SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:REALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTURE13In your opinion,who should pay the greatest costs of climate change measures in your country?National governments(51.5%)are seen as the main stakeholder who should bear the cost of climate change measures,followed by business and industries(24.1%)and individuals(9.9%).These three choices are consistent with last years results.Indeed,many studies have pointed out that governments have the power to increase their budgets,redistribute tax revenues collected from the public,and impose carbon taxes for climate measures(Morris,2013).Southeast Asian respondents expect their national governments to take more of these policy actions.Interestingly,the results also show that the older the respondents,the more likely they are to choose business and industries to be responsible for climate costs.16-21 22-35 36-45 46-60 Above 60NationalityAgeTop 3 in the RegionNational governmentIndividualsBusinesses andindustries20232022National governmentSubnationalGovernmentsBusinesses andindustriesBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VNREGIONNational government Businesses and industries Individuals Multilateral organisations(e.g.ASEAN,UN,multilateral development banks)Subnational governments Civil society organisations51.5%9.9$.1%7.46.9.3.8.9E.2%9.2.8%8.3V.1%7.5%.59.9%9.5.7.8G.9%9.3#.9%8.9D.9.2.5%9.7A.3.6%.5%6.4C.0B.7F.9%7.7&.1X.3#.9%7.8%5.6%7.0%9.3%6.8%4.7%4.6%4.3.6%7.1%7.3.5.6%4.3%3.9%4.8.9 .3D.3D.2H.4S.2T.3.4$.8&.2.22.9.8.6%8.2%7.0%5.7%8.2%8.9%8.2%5.4%6.4.8%8.2%6.8%5.4%5.7%3.2%2.4%3.9SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:RREALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTURE14Which climate impacts are affecting your countrys food availability?(Check all that apply)Across Southeast Asia,residents highlight floods and droughts/heat waves as the main climate impacts affecting food availability.Philippines respondents biggest concern is storms and typhoons(81.3%).More than half of Vietnam respondents(51.3%)also highlighted concerns over sea level rise affecting farmland.Respondents from Singapore(47.1%),Malaysia(43.2%),Indonesia(42.4%)and the Philippines(42.1%)are also concerned about fishery decline due to ocean warming and unpredictable weather.This is also consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)findings that there will be a“decrease in total productive fisheries potential”due to sea level rise,salinisation of freshwater reservoirs,and ocean warming(IPCC,2023).NationalityFloods affecting food production and distributionStorms and typhoons destroying farmland and transportation routesRegion73.0%Prolonged drought and heat waves affecting harvest72.4C.78.9%2.0%Sea level rise affecting farmlandNone of the above32.2%Ocean warming and unpredictable weather leading to fisheries declineBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN30.63.8A.9P.2F.2#.9w.2b.6B.1(.5w.9R.7G.3%.6Q.3.0C.2R.4.6%.0$.48.2.6s.7B.40.2w.6F.25.4(.57(.6.61.7(.6b.6.3d.7).0G.30.55.30.95.22.2%.40.90.9.0.0.0.5.3.9%8.9%0.8%3.5%1.3%1.9%0.9%9.7 SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:REALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTURE15Which statement below best describes your experience with food insecurity?Approximately 14.0%of Southeast Asia respondents say they experience food insecurity either“all the time”or“frequently”.This is consistent with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Programmes(FAO)findings that approximately 16.4%of Southeast Asians experience moderate or severe food insecurity(FAO et al.,2023).Cambodia,Laos,Brunei and the Philippines have indicated the highest levels of experiencing food insecurity“all the time”.Vietnam,Singapore and Indonesia participants indicated the lowest food insecurity levels.All the timeFrequentlySometimesRegion45.2%3.3%Metropolitan Mid-sized and smaller RuralCity Type8.5E.1D.3%7.5.7Q.9&.9%8.7.3I.1(.9%Not at all-I do not experience food insecurity40.8.7%NationalityLess urbanised areas(rural,towns or mid-sized cities)experience greater food insecurity than those in metropolitan cities.This is also consistent with the findings by the FAO that cities have better access to affordable diets and food security(FAO et al.,2023).BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN11.3E.66.3%6.9.8G.9#.0.2.0A.2D.7.8Y.5.2%9.5U.2(.2.9F.39.2.9.0V.6.6%6.8B.7Q.6.1D.99.1A.3V.1%5.4%3.9!SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:RREALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTURELack of agriculture investment34.7%of regional respondents attribute food insecurity to rising food prices,followed by climate change(25.6%)and poor government policy(18.2%).At the country level,approximately half of all respondents from import dependent Singapore and Brunei are concerned about rising prices as reasons for food insecurity.Indonesia and Vietnam respondents have relatively higher concerns about climate change at 36.9%and 30.7%respectively when compared to the region.Whereas the biggest concern in Myanmar is poor government policy which is unsurprising considering current civil strife,a quarter of respondents in Cambodia and Laos also highlighted poor government policy as reasons for food insecurity.Among the countries,Cambodia(16.8%)and Singapore(11.1%)are concerned about food insecurity caused by export bans.16What do you think is the main cause of your food insecurity experience?Nationality14.7.7H.0%9.0.8.4%7.5.6E.23.3 .3B.3#.7P.45.7%6.9%7.9.48.4%Food export bansClimate changePoor government policy18.2%.6%4.3%6.9.8.8.6%.7.21.9.2.56.9.7&.1.7.4.0%5.8%8.0%9.4.9.9.1%7.4.3.5$.6.90.76.6%Rising food prices34.7.4%None of the above1.9%RegionBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN5.9%5.1%5.9%4.8%4.9%4.4%2.8SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:REALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTURE17How concerned are you about climate change impacts on food availability and affordability in the next 3 years?More than two-thirds of regional respondents indicated“somewhat”or“very concerned”about climate change impacts on food availability and affordability in the next three years.More than half of Philippines respondents are“very concerned”.Seven in ten respondents in Malaysia(69.9%)and Indonesia(70.2%)are either“very concerned”or“somewhat concerned”.Counter-intuitively,concerns over climate change impacts on food availability and affordability seems to be even across all socio-economic groups-indicating food security is a concern irrespective of income level.Higher(rated 8-10)Medium(rated 3-7)Lower(rated 0-2)Socio-Economic Status28.1.3.93.6.0(.8%6.37.9#.9.8%7.2A.1%Not ConcernedVery concernedSomewhat concernedRegion41.1%6.2%A little concerned22.9).7%Nationality16.34.4.9.81.8.10.69.6%6.3.1).7%8.92.47.5.99.2%7.9Q.53.2.8#.72.6%5.7V.0#.2A.76.1%9.1.0.98.03.9&.3D.3#.58.22.5%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN3.9%4.8#SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:RREALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTUREGlobal food security is currently affected by climate change,geopolitical stress,and sustained inflation.What should be your governments priority in addressing this crisis?(Choose three preferred options)Majority of Southeast Asia respondents prioritise the need for climate adaptive farming methods,increase in domestic food production and agri-food investments.Most countries are resistant towards banning food exports,with exception of Cambodia(47.5%),Laos,(36.7%),and Myanmar(26.9%),possibly as these countries see their neighbouring countries with greater purchasing power buying their crops.Only a quarter of Southeast Asians consider food subsidies a priority.Reducing food loss and waste is important in Singapore,Malaysia,and Thailand.Vietnam,Thailand and the Philippines countries with significant fishery industries-are also concerned about reducing ocean pollution to protect fisheries and expand aquaculture.18NationalityEncourage climateadaptive farmingmethodsIncrease domestic foodproductionKeep trading channelsand supply chains open67.2c.9V.67.6%Prioritise agri-foodinvestments,includingtechnologyProvide food subsidiesReduce food loss andwaste,and encouragecircular solutionsReduce oceanpollution toprotect fisheries,and expandaquaculture31.6.4.8.0R.5f.8c.5h.4Q.7.8p.66.2s.4p.9V.9i.6i.0Y.5Q.7a.7F.8P.50.0C.0&.9$.9%7.89.2.6B.7%8.97.6.6.25.69.2g.18.6S.39.6g.7E.5b.8X.35.0$.4.3$.1).7&.4$.35.8 .3.84.4.36.5.5H.6.3.4b.0Q.7.41.9.4.8.10.9.53.6&.9A.5D.8n exports of food toother countries26.9G.5.06.7.4&.9%7.7%5.4%9.7%5.7%Top 3 in the regionPrioritise agri-food investments,includingtechnologyEncourage climateadaptive farmingmethods67.2c.9%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VNREGIONIncrease domestic food production56.6$SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:REALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTUREBusinesses and industriesIn your opinion,who has been the most active in tackling climate change in your country?Although Southeast Asians believe that their national governments must be responsible for climate change,the majority of respondents argue that civil society organisations(30.2%)are the most active in tackling climate change in their country.This view is strongly shared by Malaysia(38.2%),Indonesia(37.6%),Myanmar(34.8%),and the Philippines(30.2%)respondents.Singapore,Brunei Darussalam,Cambodia,and Vietnam have the largest proportion of those who think their national governments are most active.Laos,on the other hand,claim that subnational governments are most active.Southeast Asia respondents also perceive that businesses are among the least active in climate action,even as they view businesses as being the second largest stakeholder group with the responsibility of tackling climate change.The higher the educational attainment of the respondents,the more likely they are to think that civil society is the most active in taking steps for the climate.19EducationIndividualsSubnational governments(e.g.state/provincial/city governments)National governmentRegion6.9.3.4%Civil society organisations30.2%Multilateral organisations(e.g.ASEAN,UN and multilateral development banks)14.9%8.3%Doctoral degreeMasters degreeBachelors degree Post-secondary non-tertiary educationPrimary and Secondary education20.8).76.59.5&.7).0.95.7.3.1.6.2.6.2.1.7.4.4.5%5.5%7.4%8.6.7%9.4%7.8(.4%Nationality42.5.4.4%5.0.93.2.9%9.7.8.5.9%.97.6.1.2%5.9.7.6.8.2.8#.28.2.7%6.9.8%8.1.14.8.8!.6%7.5%6.2).40.2.3.5%6.8T.5.9%7.2.8!.3.2.4.1.0.06.5.6.7%8.3%8.7%8.3.9%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN4.3%3.8%3.9%4.7.0%4.2.2.0%SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:RREALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTURE56.1rely Moderately Greatly202341.3%2.6V.1%of Southeast Asians say with moderate confidence that extreme weather events and climate impacts will affect them personally whereas 41.3%say with greater confidence that they will suffer impacts in ten years time.Across the region,respondents from the Philippines(67.2%)are more likely to experience impacts first-hand which corroborates with current lived experiences.This is significantly higher compared to the regional average of 41.3%.At the regional average level,2.6lieve that they are not likely to experience impacts in ten years with the largest proportion of them coming from Myanmar(21.6%)and Brunei(20.6%).20On a scale of 0-10,to what extent do you think climate change impacts will negatively affect your life in 10 years time(2033)?NationalityBarely(0-2)Moderately(3-7)Greatly(8-10)16-2121-3536-4546-60Above 60Age20.6.6%0.8.3%0.4!.6%0.4%2.2%3.9%0.4S.1V.28.8a.4I.8U.12.3Q.3A.5.4&.3.2.4%.3I.8#.3g.2F.6T.6Y.1rely(0-2)Moderately(3-7)Greatly(8-10)52.8F.7E.8D.0E.74.6E.7P.9R.2T.3 22Barely Moderately Greatly49.7.8%9.5.6%7.7%3.3%3.8%0.0%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VNRegion26SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:REALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTURE21Which statement below best describes your level of participation in climate advocacy?(Check all that apply)Majority of respondents across the region tend to be more passive in climate action by following news and sharing information about climate change(75.2%),followed by adopting more sustainable lifestyle options(49.9%).Brunei has the largest proportion of respondents who neither participates in,nor follows climate-related issues(30.6%).Interestingly,older respondents,especially those above 46 years old tend to be more engaged in following news and sharing information about climate change and adopt more sustainable lifestyle.Similarly,those who are economically well-off are more likely to participate in these types of activities.Higher(rated 8-10)Lower(rated 0-2)Medium(rated 3-7)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)16-2121-3536-4546-60Above 60Age60.2i.0i.4q.5u.7%.4A.1F.3P.3d.3.1!.8.8.3.3.9.6.7.0(.6.6.5.3%7.9%5.7.8%9.6%8.9.4%5.7%5.6%6.7%6.1%4.7%1.4%5.4%5.9%4.2%3.5%0.0r.3Q.6g.7B.9.5A.8.9.4.9.8.4.9.5.9.7%6.3 .3.7%8.9.%4.7%5.2%7.4%6.3%4.2.1.1.1%Socio-Economic Status1.3%5.5%4.3%4.4%5.4%6.2%3.0%3.2%3.9.3%Nationality(1)I follow news and share informationabout climatechange(2)I adopt moresustainable lifestyleoptions andencourage othersto do so53.8a.3x.0X.9q.4Y.0.7W.7q.0w.8%(3)I donate toenvironmentalorganisations(4)I join climatemovement groupsand attendseminarsREGION75.2I.9.0!.0%(5)I sign petitions(6)I lead a project andmobilise supporton climate changeawareness(7)I dont participatein or follow climatechange issues(8)I contact my localpoliticalrepresentatives18.2.0%5.9%4.7%(9)I attend protests4.3.8.7D.3%8.9C.2).1X.7V.3C.0f.5%5.6.5.2.4$.7&.4.6.3!.73.5%8.1.9.5%3.8.0.5.7.6.1.8%6.9!.2.0.0.4.5.9%7.9%6.3.50.6%6.0%4.7.8.4.1%4.7.1.5%1.7%1.9.1%4.7.4%6.6%5.3%4.3%2.9%7.7%4.8.1%.3.00.4#.6.0&.4.6.5%.2%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)21.9#.7.4.1.1SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION II:RREALITIES VS.EXPECTATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE FUTUREI reduce my use of plastics (e g disposablecontainers,plastic bags)I reduce my use of plastics (e g disposablecontainers,plastic bags)What changes have you made to your lifestyle for the sake of climate action?(Check all that apply)26.4!.2.2.7.7%of Southeast Asian respondents claim that they take climate action by reducing the use of single-use plastics.This measure is shared widely in all ASEAN countries.More than half of the respondents also say they actively reduce their use of electricity(56.9%).Brunei has the highest proportion of respondents who did not choose any climate measures(11.9%)compared to other regional countries.Interestingly,Singapore has a significant proportion of respondents(65.9%)who use public transportation,walking,and cycling to reduce their carbon footprint.Respondents who live in metropolitan cities tend to use public transport,walking and cycling as well as reduce their electricity consumption more than respondents who live in smaller cities.53.8F.96.2C.9Metropolitan Mid-sized Town RuralCity Type47.7).5#.8).5.9%.9%.30.1.3t.6t.5r.3.8.3.6.1%1.9%3.9%6.8%4.6.9%6.5%0.0%8.2%2.7%5.3%0.9%2.2%2.4%0.9%NationalityI actively reduce my electricity use(eg by not using airconditioning)I choose publictransport,walking orcycling34.33.2Y.6.2Q.75.7H.9b.0D.0h.3%I grow my own food because of concern ofclimate change impact on food availabilityI purchasesecondhand itemsI reduce or eliminatemy meatconsumption83.7V.9C.8%.5%.1.1.6 .3B.7.64.7.8I.8e.9.1T.3.60.4.6&.6.8!.14.5.8!.3%.5$.4.5#.1.7(.6!.1).8).7$.29.6f.3q.0.9Y.5.7w.1.7.4y.2.4%8.1%9.7.7.6 .8.8.9&.5.6!.3%None of the above1.2%REGIONBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VNI actively reduce my electricity use(eg by not using airconditioning)I choose publictransport,walking orcyclingI grow my own food because of concern ofclimate change impact on food availabilityI purchasesecondhand itemsI reduce or eliminatemy meatconsumptionNone of the above28SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION III:SOUTHEAST ASIAS CLIMATE-SECURE FUTURESECTION IIICLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUESPages29-4029SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 203SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUESDecarbonisation is understood as the process of reducing or removing greenhouse gas emissions from economic activities.The biggest obstacle to decarbonisation in my country is:Regional respondents view the lack of R&D,technology and expertise as the largest obstacle to decarbonisation(20.3%),followed by the absence of political will(17.1%)and insufficient financial resources(16.4%).The relevance of these three challenges have been identified in literature on decarbonisation in ASEAN(Seah et al.,2023).Another 16.3%of respondents believe that the biggest obstacle to decarbonisation is insufficient alternative energy sources.Yet,as highlighted in several studies(International Renewable Energy Agency&ASEAN Centre for Energy,2022),ASEAN has enormous solar and wind potential,which can be harnessed to supply as much as two-thirds of the regions energy demand.Deeper analysis into respondent profiles show that those working in media are most likely to believe that ASEAN does not have enough alternative energy sources,which is particularly concerning given the important role media plays in shaping public opinion.This points towards the need for greater awareness about ASEANs alternative energy sources among the regions media and wider citizenry.Respondents belonging to academia,think-tanks and research institutions see political will as the biggest obstacle,while those from business are most likely to identify the lack of R&D as a challenge to decarbonisation.At the country level,Vietnam respondents give equal importance to the lack of R&D(30.0%)and insufficient financial resources(30.0%),while respondents from Cambodia(24.9%),Malaysia(24.7%)and Thailand(24.6%)give the most weight to the lack of political will as a barrier to decarbonisation.23Academia,Think-Tanks and Research InstitutionsBusiness,Finance and IndustryCivil Society and Non-Government OrganisationsGovernmentMediaRegional Orgs,IGOs&IOsStudentsRetirees and OthersAffiliationLack of R&D,technology and expertise Absence of political will Insufficient financial resourcesInsufficient alternative energy resources Other domestic priorities(e.g.right to development,economic recovery)Lack of public support Energy insecurity from geo-political events(e.g.war in Ukraine,US-China rivalry)Nationality20.3.1.4.3.9.7%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VNREGION18.8%.0%6.9.4 .3%7.4.9.1.6.0.6.4.8.5.4%9.3%7.5.9.3.55.1.1!.3 .0%6.5%6.1.5.6.4.9.3.6$.9.7.1.9.7.34.2.4.4$.7#.3.9.2.4 .0.9.0%7.9%9.0%6.8.8.8%9.7%9.7.10.00.0%6.5.4$.6%4.4%3.8%3.9.9.6.0.2.0%9.9%7.8%6.5%7.6%6.9.3.4.8.3.7&.1.5.5.4.5.4.2.4.3.6.9.1.0.5$.1.6%8.6.0.1.5.1.2.3.6.5%9.4.8.5 .0.9%8.6.8.7).4.2%5.4%4.90SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUESThe biggest concern regarding transitioning to renewables is rising energy prices and cost of living(54.2%),followed by energy shortages(21.7%).A little less than 10%of respondents do not foresee any negative impacts associated with transition.While international organisations and academics have argued that energy transition can widen inequality(Setyowati&Quist,2022)and lead to redundancies in some industries(International Labour Organization,2022),these issues were not seen as major concerns by regional respondents.Respondents from Singapore and Thailand are most worried about rising energy prices.Relatively higher electricity prices in Singapore and recent increases in tariffs in Thailand(Bangkok Post,2023a)may have influenced these perceptions.Energy shortages are a key concern in Vietnam,which experienced severe blackouts in June this year(Vu et al.,2023).Cambodia respondents are more worried about job losses than the rest of the region,while a significant number of respondents from Brunei do not foresee any negative impacts of transition.Respondents from metropolitan cities are most concerned about rising energy prices and energy shortages.Those based in rural areas express the highest level of concern about loss of jobs and widening social inequality,issues that are given less prominence at the regional level.24What is your top concern about the impact of transitioning to renewable energy/cutting fossil fuels?City TypeNationality10.0.8 .6%6.9C.8.8.8.1D.7 .4%9.0.2V.5%9.5.1.0.1Q.3.1.2%8.1%6.2V.4.4.9%8.8.8G.1$.3%7.2.2I.8.8%8.6%9.3e.9.9%7.7.6X.05.7P.9!.7%9.2%8.8T.2%6.0%Rising energy prices and cost of living Energy shortages I do not foresee negative impacts Widening social inequality Loss of jobsREGIONBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN4.6%5.5%5.7%4.3%3.5%Metropolitan Mid-sized TownRural56.4 .5%9.1%6.4%7.7I.5.4.9.7I.7.0.9.4%7.0P.9.3.0.4.4%8.5%3.9%5.4%4.81SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 203SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUES45.37.5.2b.9$.3.7%Would you support a national carbon tax?Respondents from Vietnam(76.5%),Indonesia(72.2%),and the Philippines(70.2%)are the most supportive of a national carbon tax compared to the 68.7%of regional respondents.Meanwhile,58.1%of Brunei and 50.0%of Lao respondents are unsure about this policy.Currently,only two countries in the region have imposed a national carbon pricing policy.In 2019,Singapore set a carbon tax at S$5/tCO2e(US$3.7)and is committed to raise it to S$25/tCO2e for 2024,and S$45/tCO2e by RegionNo8.1%Yes68.7%Unsure23.2%Higher(rated 8-10)Medium(rated 3-7)Lower(rated 0-2)Socio-Economic Status57.22.8%9.9%Nationality28.8X.1.1F.1.6.4r.2.4%5.56.7P.0.3b.9.8%9.3R.07.4.6p.2.6.2S.00.8.1.9).5%9.7v.5.3%9.1 26,and possibly S$80/tCO2e by 2030(Thomas,2023).Indonesia,one of the worlds top coal producers,had set up a regulation to impose a carbon tax at US$2/tCO2e on coal power plants.However,the implementation has been postponed likely until 2025(International Carbon Action Partnership,2023).Other countries such as Malaysia and Thailand are considering building emission trading systems and have launched voluntary carbon exchanges.The higher the socio-economic status of respondents,the higher the acceptance of a carbon tax for climate,indicating that those who are in the lower end of socio-economic status are more concerned about bread-and-butter issues than climate challenges.BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN32SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUESIn your view,which sources of clean energy have the greatest potential in your country(Select your top two choices)?Survey respondents show similar preferences for renewable energy sources as last year.Solar received the highest levels of approval(80.6%),followed by hydropower(45.6%)and wind(28.9%).Nuclear energy received the lowest levels of support(5.6%).Hydropower and geothermal energy have the strongest support from Indonesia respondents,while Singapore respondents have the most favourable perceptions about green hydrogen,biofuels and nuclear energy.Respondents from Vietnam are the regions biggest supporters of wind energy.Vietnam has prioritised wind over solar energy in its latest Power Development Plan(Merdekawati et al.,2022).For most of these countries,perceptions favouring particular energy sources may reflect their availability as well as the number of projects which are proposed or under construction.However,for alternative-energy challenged Singapore,it may be the lack of resources within the country that make nuclear energy a more viable option.26NationalitySolar energyHydropower85.0g.7v.1q.5.3.2x.7.0.0.5%Wind energyGeothermal energyBiofuelGreen hydrogenTidal energy5.6%Nuclear energy30.6E.2.3A.1.3.97.9.7&.6f.1.9%6.0%9.4%6.3.8%1.8.2.9.4.2.4 .3#.1.9%5.8%4.8.1%5.4%4.8%5.2.3.4%3.5.0%2.7.6%6.8%8.2%2.4.6%4.4%5.5%4.7%4.4%5.0%8.4%8.5.7%7.2%5.7.6E.6(.9.9.1%7.6%6.6%Top 3 in the regionSolar energyHydropowerWind Energy21.9.6%7.8%3.8.7 .3%5.1&.9%5.3%6.5.6E.6(.9%REGIONBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN85.0g.7v.1q.5.3.2x.7.0.0.5 .61.3X.09.9Q.4U.13.3.1P.2%5.23SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 203SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUES18.8%Immediately My country should phase out coal consumption bySoutheast Asian respondents show strong support for phasing out coal,which includes those who want it done immediately(34.9%),and others who prefer a timeline of 2030(29.4%)or 2040(14.4%).13.4%of respondents prefer coal to be phased out by or after 2050,while only 8.0lieve that coal should never be phased out.Respondents from Indonesia and the Philippines are most likely to support the immediate phasing out of coal,while respondents from Singapore,Thailand,and Vietnam prefer to wait until 2030.27Nationality14.4(.1 .0.8.40.9.3 .3.2C.5.4.9.7.4 .9$.1.7.8&.6!.25.9!.6.1&.93.9.7.4.1.02.8.5%6.8%6.0#.7.1.5.4$.69.6.4.1%7.2 .09.6.7.4%Region30.71.34.9).4.4.4%8.0.4.3%9.2 22 20232022 20232022 20232022 20232022 2023BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN4.3%4.3%By 2030 By 2040By or After 2050Never3.14SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUESBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN29.4.0.9.0%.0.8.8$.9%.3S.7.1.7 .3.8 .3.1B.9.6.6%9.7 .3.1.5.9C.8.3.7G.0.3.7.1.8.0D.8#.5.5%9.4.9%8.9.2%7.0%6.0.2.6.4%4.3%7.8%5.0%9.3%6.8.8%5.3.1%4.8%5.2%8.3%Natural gas is a fossil fuel which produces fewer greenhouse emissions than coal.Which statement best describes your view of natural gas?The most popular opinion,held by 45.8%of the regions respondents is that while natural gas is a temporary replacement for coal,countries must strive towards developing renewable energy generation.18.2%of respondents believe that natural gas is an ideal replacement for coal,while 15.6%want natural gas to be used along with coal.Indonesia respondents provide the highest support for using gas as a temporary fuel source.Respondents from Vietnam are the regions strongest advocates for replacing coal with gas.A significant number of respondents in Myanmar and Cambodia believe that both coal and gas should be part of their countrys energy mix.Respondents from government,civil society,and academia express the strongest support for using gas as a temporary replacement for coal,while retirees and regional organisations are most convinced about gas being an ideal replacement for coal.The biggest support for using both coal and gas comes from media respondents.28Academia,Think-Tanks and Research InstitutionsBusiness,Finance and IndustryCivil Society and Non-Government OrganisationsGovernmentMediaRegional Orgs,IGOs&IOsStudentsRetirees and OthersAffiliationNatural gas is a good temporary replacement for coal,but my country should still work towards renewable energyNatural gas is an ideal fuel to replace coal Natural gas can be part of the energy mix for my country along with coalCoal should be replaced by renewable energy,not natural gas Not sure Natural gas should not replace coal Nationality45.8.2.6%8.9%REGION6.5%5.0.6%8.66.6%9.7.8A.4.2%8.8C.2%7.3%8.33.7%9.82.8%8.63.7.38.5%7.7.0%9.8%6.3#.8.8.9.9%8.6%6.9.4 .7%9.8#.9.4.2.2.1.2%8.3.9%6.7.3.7.9.5%5.8%4.7%5.4%5.45SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 203SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUES46.1.6.3)Fossil fuel subsidies can hinder clean energy transition.Should fossil fuel subsidies be cut in your country?Around half of the respondents from the region(51.1%)believe that fossil fuel subsidies should be cut in their country,while 31.8%are unsure and 17.1%disagree.Respondents from Vietnam,Singapore and Thailand express the strongest support for cutting subsidies.The largest group of respondents who are unsure or do not want fossil fuel subsidies to be cut are from Brunei.Predictably,socio-economic considerations play a role in perceptions towards subsidies.Those with more purchasing power are more open to cutting subsidies.Policies to reduce fossil fuel subsidies should thus account for impacts on vulnerable groups.In addition,many respondents at the medium and lower ranks of the socio-economic scale were unsure about the topic,signifying that the topic of fossil fuel subsidies remain obscure and greater public engagement may enable people to make more informed decisions about energy use.Nationality55.0.5.5%Region52.17.35.3E.1.9H.18.0.6.4I.8.5E.4.1G.7.44.9a.6.6.8W.01.9d.8#.5.7.6.8.1X.7%Higher(rated 8-10)Medium(rated 3-7)Lower(rated 0-2)Socio-Economic Status26.8.5H.65.7.7%NoYesUnsure31.8Q.1.1%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN36SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUESWhat should ASEAN do to accelerate a clean energy transition?(Choose three options):30Discussions on accelerating ASEANs clean energy transition have started but not in any manner that necessitates collective action as every country is more focused on meeting individual Paris Agreement goals.This question was meant to prompt respondents to think about the possibilities of what the region can do together.The results have been given equal weight as opposed to the other questions that were weighted by population and age.In this question where respondents are asked to pick three choices out of seven,majority of Southeast Asians chose the facilitation of regional energy infrastructure(72.2%),the adoption of a regional renewable energy agreement(51.9%)and the establishment of a common ASEAN clean energy fund(46.0%)as their top three choices.The development of energy infrastructure is without exception the regions top choice with 83.5%of Indonesian respondents choosing this option over other options.The second-ranked option of adopting a renewable energy agreement across the region had its greatest support from Cambodia at 62.7%whereas the establishment of a common fund found most support from Vietnam at 58.7%.Interestingly,the idea of a regional carbon trading system is ranked last,perhaps due to the lack of knowledge of how such a trading system could work to facilitate clean energy adoption.Retirees and those affiliated with academia,businesses and industries tend to be more supportive of facilitating the development of energy infrastructure compared to other groups.Adoption of a renewable energy agreement and establishment of a common ASEAN clean energy fund saw significant support from regional organisations,inter-government,and international organisations.Adopt a regionalrenewable energyagreementTop 3 in ASEAN72.2Q.9F.06SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION IV:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUESFacilitate thedevelopment of regionalenergy infastructureEstablish a commonASEAN clean energy fundNote:ASEAN values for Questions 30-36 are based on equal weightages by country.37SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 203SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUES61.9e.4.5f.5t.5q.8t.5i.9u.4w.8%Nationality72.2Q.97.95.5F.0cilitate thedevelopment of regionalenergy infastructuresAdopt a regionalrenewable energyagreementEstablish a commonASEAN clean energy fundFacilitate training andeducation of energyofficialsFacilitate cross-borderelectricity tradeSet up a regional carbontrading systemHarmonise energyefficiency standards31.7P.6b.7E.9S.8I.8U.5T.9R.7Q.2A.3P.60.4H.61.0Q.77.9T.5A.9U.6X.75.0C.8E.1R.53.65.7.70.8.63.9A.9!.7%.9.88.2C.2F.43.0(.0P.04.4G.0#.9H.7).03.9.1A.6.4 .4%.6).0.1.6#.2.0 .00.12.9.8ademia,Think-Tanks and Research InstitutionsBusiness,Finance and IndustryCivil Society and Non-Government OrganisationsGovernmentMediaRegional Orgs,IGOs&IOsStudentsRetirees and OthersAffiliationASEANBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN24.8cilitate thedevelopment of regionalenergy infastructuresAdopt a regionalrenewable energyagreementEstablish a commonASEAN clean energy fundFacilitate training andeducation of energyofficialsFacilitate cross-borderelectricity tradeSet up a regional carbontrading systemHarmonise energyefficiency standards77.0v.5h.5.4p.7r.4i.9w.6S.0I.2T.1V.3T.3X.6Q.8I.07.1G.8S.0E.8D.6V.9E.7Q.05.59.54.35.41.5).38.0.6).14.4.98.5%.0.6A.08.5.60.3&.03.3E.7$.1(.3.4.8.4#.20.2(.31.0%.4!.07SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 203SECTION IV:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUES38SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUESWhich statement best reflects your view of the use of coal power?Nationality3132.4%of the regions citizens support the closing of existing coal plants and the transition to another fuel source.This opinion was most popular in Thailand,Singapore and Vietnam.28.5%of respondents believe that while coal is beneficial to economic development,the resulting emissions are a concern.This perception is most prevalent among respondents from Indonesia and Myanmar.The third most popular opinion(17.3%)is that coal use should be continued but no new plants should be commissioned.9.2%of ASEAN citizens advocate the immediate closing of coal plants,while 12.5%support building new coal plants.While a majority of respondents express some level of concern regarding coal,as much as 15.0%of the global coal pipeline is located in ASEAN(Fuentes&Chapman,2021).The region is expected to be a leader in coal expansion in the future,which will increase emissions and undermine energy security(Chen&Mauzerall,2021).Interestingly,the older a respondent is,the stronger the support for closing down coal plants and transitioning to another fuel source.Youths aged 16-21 are the largest supporters of building new coal power plants.38SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 203SECTION IV:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUESAge16-2122-3536-4546-60Above 6019.42.6.2!.4%7.42.2(.3.0.9%8.6A.6(.7.9%6.8.0C.3%.0.5.0T.3.1.9.3&.6(.1.0.5%7.85.0.5.5.0%9.0%Higher(rated 8-10)Medium(rated 3-7)Lower(rated 0-2)Socio-Economic Status29.92.4.3.7.7%Transition to another fuel source and close existing coal power plantsBeneficial to economic development and should continue but emissions are a concernKeep using coal,but no more coal power plants should be builtBeneficial to economic development and more coal power plants should be built Coal power should be stopped immediatelyASEAN23.1&.9.4.5.1.9$.4.10.9%9.72.55.7.0%5.5%8.2.42.3.6.8%7.08.6&.6.8%6.6.4#.33.0$.7.96.22.3.3.1F.6.2.6.0I.3.5%8.2%7.7%7.2C.5$.8.1%8.32.4(.6.3.5%9.2%5.1%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN4.3%3.1%3.19SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 203SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUESA majority of ASEAN citizens(54.2%)believe that their countries should stop building new coal power plants immediately,while a substantial number of respondents(35.2%)are unsure.Only 10.5%of respondents do not agree with ending coal plants immediately.On a positive note,citizens of countries that lead in the consumption and production of coal,such as Vietnam,the Philippines,and Indonesia are the strongest advocates of ending coal plants immediately.Some of these sentiments have been reflected in government policies.For example,in 2020,the Philippines announced a moratorium on new coal power plants,while Vietnams Power Development Plan 8 envisions reducing coals contribution to energy generation to 20%in 2030 and a complete phase-down by 2050(Prime Minister of Vietnam,2023).Laos respondents have the highest level of disagreement(18.4%)with ending coal plants,which may reflect the countrys economic dependence on exporting coal-fired electricity to neighbouring countries(Mekong Eye,2015).Similar to the results of the previous question,there is a correlation between the age of a respondent and perceptions regarding coal,with older people opposing the development of new plants.A concerning finding is the high level of uncertainty among youths aged(1621-year)regarding the issue,which shows that the younger generation is not informed about the environmental impact of coal plants.ASEAN countries should stop building new coal power plants immediately.Do you agree?32Age16-21 22-35 36-45 46-60 Above 6043.3R.7c.3i.0t.3C.96.8&.4$.4.1.8.5.3%Nationality34.4X.1%7.5G.0B.4.6c.1.8%9.08.6C.0.4Y.51.7%8.9F.3E.4%8.4&.0%8.5Y.9(.7.5.9.1.1g.0.6.4T.25.2.5%ASEANBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN65.5%Agree Unsure Disagree6.6%8.69SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 203SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUES40SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUES40SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION IV:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUES33“Reduction of dependence on fossil fuels will be painful in the short term but beneficial to ASEAN economies in the long term.”Do you agree?Academia,Think-Tanks and Research InstitutionsBusiness,Finance and IndustryCivil Society and Non-Government OrganisationsGovernmentMediaRegional Orgs,IGOs&IOsStudentsRetirees and OthersAffiliation75.1.8%6.1p.2.9%6.9q.3.9%8.8q.4.2.4d.1%.0.9y.3.2Y.92.0%8.1.12.9%7.0 21202280 %0 20202381.2%3.1.7%A majority of ASEAN citizens(66.5%)believe that moving away from fossil fuels has long-term benefits,while only 8.0%disagree and 25.6%are unsure.This perception is the highest in Vietnam,followed by Indonesia and Singapore.Vietnams contemporary success in increasing solar and wind generation(Do et al.,2021)and Indonesias stated intention to capitalise on its critical mineral deposits(DW,2023)may have driven positive perceptions of energy transition in these countries.Laos has the highest level of disagreement regarding the benefits of transition,while a significant number of respondents in Brunei and Myanmar are unsure about the issue.Nationality40.0H.8.3W.13.6%9.2w.3.3%7.5T.41.6s.0.3W.38.8t.0 .9%5.1u.6.3%6.1h.6 .3.1.8%7.7.9%8.3%Analysis into the affiliations of the respondents reveal that regional,inter-governmental and international originations are the largest advocates of the benefits of moving away from fossil fuels,followed by academia,think-tanks and research institutions.The strongest levels of scepticism exist among respondents from media and the government,which is a cause of concern given that these two sectors play critical roles in raising awareness and implementing policies on transition.Agree Unsure DisagreeBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN4.0%3.9%8.0%.6f.5%3.0.7y.3%8.1.2t.7%3.4%ASEAN66.5%.6%8.0ASOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 203SECTION III:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUES41SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 203SECTION IV:CLIMATE TRANSITION ISSUESSECTION IVCLIMATE LEADERSHIP AND COOPERATIONPages42-4642SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2022SECTION VI:REFERENCESNationality3.8%4.6%5.9%8.0.6.28.7%6.0%6.5 23SingaporeIndonesiaThailandTop 3 in ASEANWhich ASEAN country has potential to be the regions climate leader?3438.7%of regional respondents believe that Singapore has the potential to be the regions climate leader with Indonesia as the second-ranked choice at 12.2%,followed by Thailand as the third choice at 11.6%.This is similar to the survey conducted last year.Apart from 69.9%of Singapore respondents who chose their own country,Vietnam gave Singapore the second highest approval ratings at 50.4%,followed by 42.6%of Philippines respondents.Indonesia is the second choice preferred as a potential regional leader.Of those who chose Indonesia as the potential regional leader,the majority are Indonesia respondents at 58.0%followed by Cambodia at 13.4%and Singapore at 13.3%.The perception that Singapore can be a climate leader in the region corresponds with Singapores active efforts.In February 2021,the Singapore Parliament moved a motion to declare a climate emergency and called on the Government to take bolder action(Kurohi,2021).To our knowledge,it is the only Southeast Asian Parliament to have done so.The Singapore Green Plan 2030 announced in 2022 outlined the national plan to step up Singapores climate ambition.In addition,Singapore is also active in international climate cooperation having co-facilitated with Norway on the Article 6 negotiations for a new global carbon market mechanism(National Climate Change Secretariat Singapore,2022).ASEAN36.9.4#.9%.9.99.6B.6i.98.6P.4%5.6.4X.0%1.9.2.1%3.0.3%2.4%3.5%1.9%4.1%7.5.8%6.9.3%4.3%3.6D.9%7.87.5%6.9%2.7%8.9%6.9%4.8%3.8%2.9%3.9%1.7.6%5.1%2.0%2.51.3%2.6%3.8%3.6%3.4%0.4%1.9%4.6%1.2%3.8%0.8%4.06.6%0.4%3.4%3.5%1.3%2.8%2.7%3.2%1.5%4.4%3.4%6.1%1.91.7%1.38.7%1.2%0.0%0.0%2.6%2.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%1.3%2.3%0.00.4%0.4%1.3%0.0%0.0%1.4%0.4%1.9%3.7%0.8%0.6%0.0.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.4%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN2.6 22SingaporeIndonesiaNone of the aboveNote:ASEAN values for Questions 30-36 are based on equal weightages by country.42SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION V:CLIMATE LEADERSHIP AND COOPERATION43SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION V:CLIMATE LEADERSHIP AND COOPERATION35In your opinion,who has demonstrated climate leadership to help the world achieve Paris-aligned goals?5.0%5.0%None of the above10.1.6.7.4 .8.0&.8.2(.0A.3%Nationality25.2.4%.1.5.3.3.6.0.5.0(.9%8.3.8%9.5 .8.9.66.6.5.3%7.50.0.24.2.8.7%2.6.8.0%4.3%6.3.3%8.2.7%7.7!.7.9%7.9.0&.1%5.0%4.1%3.1%3.2%8.5%4.0%9.8%6.1%5.3%0.4.7%4.6%1.6%5.7%3.9%7.5%2.1%0.4%2.9%0.4%4.0.0.0.7.6!.5%5.7%1.8%6.3%2.5%6.6%6.2%6.0%6.1%4.3%4.8%The EU is ranked most favourably by 21.5%of regional respondents for demonstrating global climate leadership,overtaking the US last year2,followed by Japan at 17.0%.Another 17.0%of respondents continue to believe that none of the countries have demonstrated leadership,tied at second place with Japan while China is ranked third by 14.6%of respondents.The US,which was in the lead last year,dropped to second place by a near ten percentage point this year.Although the US purportedly passed the largest climate legislation in history last year,the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)2022 is not seen as helping the climate cause in Southeast Asia.On the contrary,the provisions of the IRA may be too onerous and tax credits questionable for Southeast Asia(Chen,2023).The EU Green Deal that includes the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)may equally be viewed in less than favourable light but there is an implicit appreciation that companies and investments could,in the long-run,improve their standards and reduce their carbon footprint.ASEANBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN30% %5%01.5!.8!.5#.2.0.0.2.2.0%9.5.2.6%6.0.3.7%3.4%4.6%5.0.7%5.6%5.0%0.9%2.5%4.0%0.1%1.9%2.3 21 2022 2023None of the above0.6%6.9%2.0%4.4%1.5%2.7%1.7%0.0%1.4%1.3%2.3CSOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION V:CLIMATE LEADERSHIP AND COOPERATION44SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION V:CLIMATE LEADERSHIP AND COOPERATION23.7%regional respondents view that Japan is leading in global climate innovation,including developing renewable energy technology,green buildings,and nature-based solutions,followed by the EU in the second-rank choice at 17.8%and China in the third place at 17.5%.The Philippines(33.6%),Indonesia(32.9%),Brunei(26.9%),and Myanmar(24.2%)respondents particularly gave the highest approval for Japan.Laos(29.1%),Cambodia(25.8%),Malaysia(22.0%)respondents gave China the highest approval.Meanwhile,the EU is the most popular choice among Vietnam(38.7%)and Thailand(21.7%)respondents.Interestingly,the majority of Singapore respondents chose none of the above at 24.0%.Across affiliations,the views are rather split.Japan is top-of-mind for the media,government,businesses and industries,students,and retirees.The EU is popular among people from international organisations,civil society,and academia.Which country is leading in global climate innovation(e.g.developing renewable energy technology,green buildings,nature-based solutions)?36Noneof the above26.9.82.9 .9!.6$.23.6.8.8!.7%NationalityAffiliation18.8$.6!.0&.62.6$.1#.7.4ademia,Think-Tanks and Research InstitutionsBusiness,Finance and IndustryCivil Society and Non-Government OrganisationsGovernmentMediaRegional Orgs,IGOs&IOsStudents Retirees and Others4.2%4.3%4.7.5.1.5.8#.7%8.8.7!.2%5.7 .5%9.7.9.4!.78.7.6%.8.9).1.0.5.1.3.9%3.9%8.8.3%8.2.8%8.9%.6.6.8.9.8!.9%7.8.6%9.5%9.7.0%7.2$.0%9.7%3.5%1.9%4.6%4.7%2.5%6.2%3.5%6.4%3.6%8.2%5.7.6%4.1%2.0%7.0%4.2%6.6%2.6%0.7%1.9%3.0%4.4%1.8%3.5%3.8%5.4%1.3%6.8%6.5%2.9%5.2%Noneof the above23.6.9$.3.7.0%.9.8.8.7.6.1.8.3.8.2.6.5.8.2.4.0.8.2.4.2%9.3%9.9%9.9.1%5.2.2.8%3.2%4.7%5.5%3.1%4.3%8.6%5.4%7.7%1.6%2.7%6.1%5.7%3.3%0.0%5.6%6.3%4.2%4.6%3.3%5.2%3.3%6.9%4.4%2.1%3.2%1.8%0.6%3.6%1.1%1.7%2.5%0.0%ASEANBNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VN2.2%1.3%6.9%0.0%5.7%1.5%3.5%0.9%1.1%1.0%0.4DSOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION V:CLIMATE LEADERSHIP AND COOPERATION45SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION V:CLIMATE LEADERSHIP AND COOPERATIONAffiliation33.3(.7.8).4).9 .4.5A.9ademia,Think-Tanks and Research InstitutionsBusiness,Finance and IndustryCivil Society and Non-Government OrganisationsGovernmentMediaRegional Orgs,IGOs&IOsStudents Retirees and OthersWhich country or region is the most important in helping your country ensure its agricultural climate resilience?(For example,source of fertilisers and seeds,technological transfer)33.7%of regional respondents believe that their neighbours will extend climate resilient agriculture technology assistance to them,indicating a perception of the regional community as a source of mutual support.More than 40.0%of respondents in Brunei,Malaysia and Indonesia respondents share this view.Laos(44.9%)and Cambodia(30.0%)respondents perceive assistance to come mainly from China.Meanwhile,Vietnam(21.3%)respondents think of Japan as the main partner in helping their countrys agricultural resilience.Interestingly,while the majority of respondents think their countries receive support from regional countries,people affiliated with regional organisations,inter-government,and international organisations tend to believe that China is most significant actor for their countrys agricultural climate resilience.This is consistent with Chinas signing of more than 30 bilateral agricultural cooperation agreements and 200 technology exchange projects with Southeast Asian nations,and an announcement by President Xi Jinping about China committing to import US$150 billion worth of agricultural products from Southeast Asia between 2022 to 2026(Global Times,2021).37Another ASEANcountry48.1.9D.3.7A.7.95.3#.2.1%Nationality1.8%1.4%1.1%7.9%6.2%3.0%3.1.4%8.9.9%7.5.1.1%7.0.2!.1.3.4!.33.7.00.0.5D.9.4.1%6.8!.7.3%0.6%6.0%3.1%9.5%2.7.8.0.1.2.0.2.6%5.1%8.5%5.3%4.7%2.4.4%3.1%6.5%4.3%3.2%1.9%3.1%4.7.1.9%0.6%0.9%3.5%1.9%2.3%2.6%6.0%4.8%0.0%1.3%2.8%3.5%1.9%1.5%1.8%0.4%4.3%9.1%3.1%0.9%1.6%3.2%3.1%7.0%2.1%1.9%0.4%0.6%5.5%1.6%3.2%0.0%0.9%2.6%1.4%0.4%1.9%1.4%0.4%2.5%3.1%4.0%0.9%0.5%1.7%3.1%0.9%0.4%0.0%1.5%0.4%1.3%1.9%0.0%Another ASEANcountry11.8.0.4.0.6.2.5.3.4!.1.9.6&.0(.6.9.1%8.6%9.0%8.3%5.6%6.5.2%8.5%7.3.9%7.7%8.3.8.4%8.2%6.0%4.8%7.5%5.0%7.6%6.9%2.6%4.1%3.7%5.6%2.9%1.8%2.8%4.4%3.9%4.1%2.3%4.0%2.5%3.8%1.4%1.9%2.6%4.1%3.0%3.2%2.5%2.5%2.8%2.5%0.0%6.1%2.8%2.4%1.1%0.9%2.8%3.1%1.3%0.0%3.4%0.0%0.7%1.8%5.6%1.3%1.3%2.0%1.6%1.6%0.7%0.7%1.4%0.6%0.0%0.0%1.8%1.6%REGIONBNKH IDLAMY MMPH TH VN0.6FSOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION V:CLIMATE LEADERSHIP AND COOPERATION9.7.3.28Who could play a more proactive role in sharing their climate expertise,practical ability,and technical know-how in your country?Seven out of ten ASEAN countries,with the exception of Brunei,Malaysia,and Singapore,have set more ambitious carbon emission reduction targets upon receiving international assistance from advanced economies(Martinus&Qiu,2022).Therefore,assistance on climate expertise,practical ability,and technical know-how from international partners are still needed by the region.25.8%of respondents believe that Japan can play a more proactive role in assisting their country,similar to the findings last year.The Philippines(31.1%),Indonesia(31.0%),Myanmar(25.2%),Brunei(22.0%),and Thailand(20.3%)respondents particularly share the view that they expect Japan to play a greater role in giving assistance to their countries.China is the top of choice among respondents from Laos(41.8%),Malaysia(25.5%),and Cambodia(23.5%).Meanwhile,the EU is the most popular choice in Vietnam(30.4%).Interestingly,only Singapore respondents(25.8%)think than none of the major countries mentioned in the survey can share their climate expertise,indicating that Singapore is confident to step up its climate role without international assistance.Compared to last years survey,the proportion of respondents choosing China rose by 6.1%,putting China as the third most trusted country to give assistance.Meanwhile,the EU rose to second place this year.3.8%5.2%None of the above22.0.11.0.1 .8%.21.1.3 .3.3%NationalityREGION7.5.1.9%7.0 .1.9.2.6.90.4.8#.5.8A.8%.5.3%7.7.7.8%5.7%8.2.3.8.2.0 .4$.7.7 .8%.7#.3%8.3%9.4%9.5%9.3.5%3.4 .1.1%6.5%6.9%4.6%4.3%5.7%4.2%1.8%4.7%6.1%3.4%3.9.9%6.5%0.8%4.4%3.9.5%5.5%0.7%1.0%1.3%3.8%7.8%0.8%3.8%2.7%2.7%0.4%0.7%3.4%1.3%2.4.2.5%8.7.1%.8%2.5%2.8%6.3%2.5%3.5%1.8%6.4%6.1%3.4%7.0%BNKH IDLAMY MMPH SG TH VNNone of the above30% %5%0.6#.0%.8&.8.4.5.1.1.1%9.4.8%8.7%6.1%3.5%5.2%5.0%4.2%3.8%5.0%1.6%2.4%0.2%2.0%1.4 21 2022 20231.4GSOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION V:CLIMATE LEADERSHIP AND COOPERATIONSECTION VI:REFERENCESASEAN Secretariat.(2022).ASEAN Statistical Highlights 2022.https:/www.aseanstats.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/ASEAN-Highlights-2022-02.pdfBangkok Post.(2023a).New electricity rates wont be lowered.Bangkok Post.https:/ Post.(2023b).Record temperatures,heatstroke cases engulf Southeast Asia.Bangkok Post.https:/ Southeast Asia,US Industrial Policy Might be a Risky Bet.The Diplomat.https:/ Expanding Coal Power Fleet in Southeast Asia:Implications for Future CO2 Emissions and Electricity Generation.Earths Future,9(12),e2021EF002257.https:/doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002257Do,T.N.,Burke,P.J.,Nguyen,H.N.,Overland,I.,Suryadi,B.,Swandaru,A.,&Yurnaidi,Z.(2021).Vietnams solar and wind power success:Policy implications for the other ASEAN countries.Energy for Sustainable Development,65,111.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2021.09.002DW.(2023).Export bans boost Indonesias onshoring policy.Dw.Com.https:/ and Agriculture Organization,International Fund for Agricultural Development,United Nations Childrens Fund,World Food Programme,&World Health Organization.(2023).The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023.FAO;IFAD;UNICEF;WFP;WHO;https:/doi.org/10.4060/cc3017enFuentes,U.,&Chapman,A.(2021).Shifting Investment Away From Fossil Fuels In Southeast Asia.46.Global Times.(2021).China to buy$150b in farm goods from ASEAN,almost double current level.Global Times.https:/ 27).Indonesia launches emissions trading system for power generation sector.https:/ Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).(2023).Climate Change 2022 Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability:Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(1st ed.).Cambridge University Press.https:/doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844International Labour Organization.(2022).A just energy transition in Southeast AsiaThe impacts of coal phase-out on jobs.https:/ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/-asia/-ro-bangkok/documents/publication/wcms_845700.pdfInternational Renewable Energy Agency&ASEAN Centre for Energy.(2022).Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN:Towards a Regional Energy Transition(2nd Edition).https:/www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Sep/IRENA_Renewable_energy_outlook_ASEAN_2022.pdf?rev=ef7557c64c3b4750be08f9590601634cKurohi,R.(2021).Singapore Parliament declares climate change a global emergency.The Straits Times.https:/ Climate Finance in Southeast Asia:Trends and Opportunities.https:/www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/2022-9-climate-finance-in-southeast-asia-trends-and-opportunities-by-melinda-martinus-and-qiu-jiahui/Maulia,E.,Phoonphongphiphat,A.,&Hoang,L.(2023,June 28).South-east Asia braced for fires and drought brought on by El Nio.Financial Times.47SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE CHANGE REPORT 2022SECTION VI:REFERENCES48SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2023SECTION V:CLIMATE LEADERSHIP AND COOPERATIONMekong Eye.(2015,September 8).Thailand Imports First Coal Power From Laos.Mekong Eye.https:/ Merdekawati,Ngoc Giang Vu,&Septia Buntara Supendi.(2022,June 23).Paving the way for wind energy prosperity in Vietnam.ASEAN Centre for Energy.https:/aseanenergy.org/paving-the-way-for-wind-energy-prosperity-in-vietnam/Morris,D.(2013).Who Should Pay Climate Change Costs?-Our World.https:/ourworld.unu.edu/en/who-should-pay-climate-change-costsNational Climate Change Secretariat Singapore.(2022).Singapore Joins The Article 6 Implementation Partnership at COP27.Press Releases.https:/www.nccs.gov.sg/media/press-releases/article-6-implementation-partnership-at-cop27/Prime Minister of Vietnam.(2023).Decision No.500/QD-TTg dated May 15,2023 on Approving the National Electricity Development Planning of 20212030 and vision for 2050.https:/lawnet.vn/en/vb/Decision-500-QD-TTg-2023-National-Electricity-Development-Planning-of-2021-2030-8A634.htmlRobinson,C.D.,Krystina Shveda,Lou.(2023,June 7).A“once-in-200 years”heat wave caught Southeast Asia off guard.Climate change will make them more common.CNN.https:/ Southeast Asias Decarbonisation Pathways:Insights for Policymaking.ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.https:/www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Energy-workshop-report_6-final.pdfSetyowati,A.B.,&Quist,J.(2022).Contested transition?Exploring the politics and process of regional energy planning in Indonesia.Energy Policy,165,112980.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112980The Economist Intelligence Unit.(2023).El Nio:South and South-east Asias 2023 wild card.https:/ Straits Times.(2023).Drought menacing Thailand threatens global supply of sugar,rice.The Straits Times.https:/ Asias Stakes in Pricing Carbon.ISEAS Perspective 2023/68.https:/www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/2023-68-southeast-asias-stakes-in-pricing-carbon-by-vinod-thomas/United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs&Population Division.(2022).World Population Prospects 2022,Online Edition.https:/population.un.org/wpp/Vu,K.,&Guarascio,F.(2023,June 5).Vietnams power blackouts hit multinationals manufacturing hubs.Reuters.https:/ ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2022SECTION VI:REFERENCES49SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2022SECTION VI:REFERENCESThank youThank youThe authors would like to express our deepest gratitude towards fellow ISEAS colleagues and expert reviewers for their invaluable advice.We wish to put on record our appreciation to our Survey translators Pham Thi Phuong Thao,Moe Thuzar,Ye Khaung Oo,Laksmee Suon and Thanawat Pumprakobsri,whose assistance has been critical to the success of the Survey.We would like to extend our sincere appreciation to all our respondents for taking the time to complete this Survey.Your participation lends an indispensable voice to the opinions of Southeast Asians and allows the region to be heard and be involved in the global discussion on climate change as an ASEAN collective.We are also grateful to all our readers for their support and feedback as we continuously work to improve the Survey.If you wish to stay updated on the Programmes activities,do sign up for our newsletter at bit.ly/ccseapmail or by scanning the QR code provided.You may email any comments and questions about the Survey to climatechangeiseas.edu.sg.AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsPast ReportsPast ReportsPast reports can be accessed at bit.ly/ccseapweb50SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK REPORT 2022SECTION VI:REFERENCESThis report is printed on FSC-certified paper.
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