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WEATHER CLIMATE WATERState of the Climate in Africa2023WMO-No.1360WMO-No.1360BWMO-No.1360 World Meteorological Organization,2024The right of publication in print,electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO.Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization,provided that the complete source is clearly indicated.Editorial correspondence and requests to publish,reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to:Chair,Publications BoardWorld Meteorological Organization(WMO)7 bis,avenue de la Paix P.O.Box 2300 Tel.: 41(0)22 730 84 03CH-1211 Geneva 2,Switzerland Email:publicationswmo.intISBN 978-92-63-11360-3 Cover illustration:Satellite image of 10 September 2023.Credit:NASA Worldview Key messages page:Beautiful Baobab trees at sunset at the avenue of the baobabs in Madagascar.N 163235373.Credit:dennisvdwater Generative AI.Source:Adobe StockNOTEThe designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area,or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members.iContentsKey messages.iiForeword.iiiPreface.ivGlobal climate context.1Regional climate.2Temperature.2Precipitation.5Sea level.7Major drivers of climate variability affecting the region.8Extreme climate events.10Floods.10Droughts.12Heatwaves and wildfires.13Climate-related impacts toagriculture and food security.15Climate policy and strategic perspectives.17Investment needed for adaptation and resilience-building inAfrica.17Climate services capacities.18Strategic perspectives.19Investments in climate research and innovation to drive Africas green transition agenda.21Datasets and methods.22List of contributors.25Endnotes.26We need your feedbackThis year,the WMO team has launched a process to gather feedback on the State of the Climate reports and areas for improvement.Once you have finished reading the publication,we ask that you kindly give us your feedback by responding to this short survey.Your input is highly appreciated.Key messagesIn Africa,2023 was one of the three warmest years in the 124-year record,depending on the dataset used.The mean temperature was 0.61C higher than the 19912020 average and 1.28 C higher than the 19611990 average.The African continent warmed at a rate of 0.3 C/decade between 1991 and 2023,aslightly faster rate than the global average.2023 was the warmest year on record inmany countries,including Mali,Morocco,the United Republic of Tanzania,and Uganda.Morocco experienced thehighest temperature anomaly,1.25 C above the 19912020 reference period.Extreme heatwaves in July and August affected northern Africa,with Tunis,Tunisia reaching a new maximum temperature of 49.0 C,and Agadir,Morocco reaching anew maximum temperature of 50.4 C.The rate of sea-level rise around Africa was close to or slightly higher than the global mean rate of 3.4 mm/year.The highest rate of sea-level rise,4.1 mm/year,was observed in the Red Sea.Precipitation was notably higher than normal in Angola and coastal areas north of the Gulf of Guinea.Regions with a marked rainfall deficit included the western part of North Africa,the Horn of Africa,portions of Southern Africa,and Madagascar.Parts of Morocco,Algeria,Tunisia,Nigeria,Cameroon,Ethiopia,Madagascar,Zambia,Angola,and the Democratic Republic of the Congo experienced severe drought in 2023.At least 4 700 confirmed deaths in Libya have been attributed to the flooding that followed the Mediterranean cyclone Storm Daniel in September,with 8 000 people still missing.Parts of Kenya,Somalia and Ethiopia experienced widespread and severe flooding,with more than 350 deaths and 2.4 million people displaced during theAprilJune period.Climate extremes are becoming more frequent and severe and are dispropor-tionately affecting African economies and societies.On average,climate-related hazards cause African countries to lose 2%5%of their gross domestic product(GDP)annually,with many diverting up to 9%of their budgets to respond to climate extremes.In Tunisia,widespread drought conditions in 2023 resulted in cereal production being 80low average.Rainfall deficits in Nigeria,Benin,and Ghana also led to local-ized shortfalls in agricultural production.In sub-Saharan Africa,it is estimated that climate adaptation will cost US$30 billion to US$50 billion per year over the next decade,2%3%of the regional GDP.Investing in National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and early warnings and early actions is a priority for saving lives,promoting economic development,valuing development gains and liveli-hoods and reducing the cost of disaster responses.iiiThe WMO report on the State of the Climate inAfrica 2023 is the fifth annual report on the climate inWMO Regional Association I(Africa).It provides an assessment of past and current climate trends across the African continent using the latest data and information on extreme weather and climate events and their socioeconomic impacts.Over the past 60 years,Africa has recorded awarming trend that has become more rapid than the global average.In 2023,the continent experienced heatwaves,heavy rains,floods,tropical cyclones,and prolonged droughts.While many countries in the Horn of Africa and north-western Africa continued to suffer from exceptional multi-year drought,others experienced extreme precipitation events leading to flooding with significant casualties.These extreme events had devastating impacts oncommunities,with serious economic implications.Climate data are critical for the development of climate services to support informed decision-making.Nevertheless,significant gaps in basic weather and climate observations remain over Africa.WMO and its partners initiated the Systematic Observations Financing Facility(SOFF)to close these observational gaps,thereby strengthening the underpinning data required for effective climate services,including early warnings.SOFF is a key element in the push to achieve the ambitious goal of the Early Warnings for All initiative,which was announced by the United Nations Secretary-General in 2022 and which aims to ensure that everyone on Earth is protected by early warning systems by 2027.The State of the Climate in Africa 2023 is the result of a multi-agency effort,with contributions from African National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs),WMO Regional Climate Centres(RCCs),specialized United Nations agencies and international organizations,the African Development Bank,the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa(AICCRA)project,and numerous experts and scientists.I take this opportunity to congratulate the authors for the quality of this report and thank the WMO Members,our sister United Nations agencies,and the experts and scientists who have supported its production and review.Foreword(Prof.Celeste Saulo)Secretary-General,WMOivH.E.Ambassador Josefa Leonel Correia Sacko Commissioner for Agriculture,Rural Development,Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment African Union CommissionPrefaceThe 2023 edition of the State of Climate in Africa report addresses the urgent need to invest in meteorological services and early warning systems to adapt to climate change and build resilience in Africa.As the impacts of climate change continue to manifest globally,the African continent stands at a critical juncture,facing both the challenges and opportunities associated with a changing climate.Africa,with its diverse ecosystems,rich cultural herit-age,and growing populations,faces disproportionate burdens and risks arising from climate change-related weather events and patterns,including prolonged droughts,devastating floods,out-of-season storms,and wildfires.These events cause massive humani-tarian crises with detrimental impacts on agriculture and food security,education,energy,infrastructure,peace and security,public health,water resources,and overall socioeconomic development across the continent.It is important to capitalize on the commitment of the highest African leadership to strengthen early warning systems and climate information services and to take early action to protect lives,livelihoods,and assets and inform long-term decision-making related to climate change risks.This report accordingly sets the stage for a comprehensive exploration of the essential role that meteorological services and early warning systems play in enabling African nations to adapt to the realities of climate change.African countries need to prioritize addressing the pressing need for enhanced investment in these critical areas as a means of mitigating risks,building adaptive capacity,and fostering resilience at the local,national,and regional levels.Emphasis must be placed on the transformative potential of proactive initiatives aimed at strengthening meteorological services and early warning systems;these measures can empower decision makers,inform public awareness,and guide sustainable development strategies.In this report,the reader will encounter a tapestry of knowledge,experiences,and insights that underscore the imperative of investing in meteorological services and early warning systems as a cornerstone of climate adaptation and resilience-building efforts.I invite readers to embark on this enlightening journey,acquainting themselves with the intrinsic links between weather,water and climate,and the collective imperative to safeguard Africas sustainable future in the face of a changing climate.As the climate narrative unfolds,we are reminded of the interconnectedness of humanity and the natural world and the responsibility we share in nurturing a resilient and harmonious coexistence amidst the challenges of a changing climate.Through collective action,informed decisions,and unwavering commitment,Africa can forge a path towards a climate-resilient future,where meteorological services and early warning systems serve as pillars of preparedness,adaptation,and sustainable progress.As we embark on understanding the climate indicators and embrace the insights of this report,let us navigate the evolving climate landscape and work towards a future where African communities thrive in the face of climate change.1The global annual mean near-surface temperature in 2023 was 1.45C 1.32C to 1.57C above the 18501900 pre-industrial average and 1.09C 1.05C to 1.12C above the 19611990 baseline.The year 2023 was the warmest year globally on record according to six datasets1 despite the cooling effect of LaNia at the start of the year.The years 2015 to 2023 were the nine warmest years on record in all six datasets.2Atmospheric concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases reached new record observed highs in 2022,the latest year for which consolidated global figures are available,with levels of carbon dioxide(CO2)at 417.9 0.2 parts per million(ppm),methane(CH4)at1923 2 parts per billion(ppb)and nitrous oxide(N2O)at 335.8 0.1 ppb respectively 150%,264%and 124%of pre-industrial(before 1750)levels(Figure1).Real-time data from specific locations,including Mauna Loa3(Hawaii,United States of America)and Kennaook/Cape Grim4(Tasmania,Australia)indicate that levels of CO2,CH4 and N2O continued to increase in 2023.Over the past two decades,the ocean warming rate has increased;the ocean heat content in2023 was the highest on record.Ocean warming and accelerated loss of ice mass from the ice sheets contributed to the rise of the global mean sea level by 4.77mm per year between 2014 and 2023,reaching a new record high in 2023.The ocean is a sink for CO2.It absorbs around one quarter of the annual emissions of anthropogenic CO2 into the atmosphere.5 CO2 reacts with seawater and alters its carbonate chemistry,resulting in a decrease inpH,aprocess known as“ocean acidification”.Ocean acidification affects organisms and eco-system services,6 including food security,by reducing biodiversity,degrading habitats,and endangering fisheries and aquaculture.Global climate context(a)Carbon dioxide concentration(b)Methane concentration(c)Nitrous oxide concentration(d)Carbon dioxide growth rate(e)Methane growth rate(f)Nitrous oxide growth rateppmppbppbppm/yearppb/yearppb/year 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 5 0 5 10 15 20 0 1 2 3 4 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 300 310 320 330 340 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 340 360 380 400 420YearYearYearYearYearYearFigure 1.Top row:Monthly globally averaged mole fraction(measure of atmospheric concentration),from1984 to 2022,of(a)CO2 in parts per million,(b)CH4 in parts per billion and(c)N2O in parts per billion.Bottom row:Growth rates representing increases in successive annual means of mole fractions for (d)CO2 in parts per million per year,(e)CH4 in parts per billion per year and(f)N2O in parts per billion peryear.2The following sections analyse key indicators of the state of the climate in Africa during 2023.One indicator that is particularly important,temperature,is described in terms of anomalies,or departures from a reference period.For global mean temperature,the Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)7 uses the reference period 18501900 for calculating anomalies in relation to pre-industrial levels.However,this pre-industrial reference period cannot be used in all regions as a baseline for calculating regional anomalies due to insufficient data for calculating region-specific averages prior to1900.Instead,the 19912020 climatological standard normal reference period is used for computing anomalies in temperature and other indicators.Regional temperature anomalies can also be expressed relative to the reference period 19611990.This is the reference period recommended by WMO for assessing long-term temperature change.In the present report,exceptions to the use of these baseline periods for the calculation of anomalies,where they occur,are explicitly noted.TEMPERATURELONG-TERM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN AFRICAThe African mean near-surface air temperature in 2023 was 0.61C 0.47C0.81C above the long-term average of the 19912020 climatological standard normal(Figure2)and 1.28C 1.18C1.40C above the 19611990 average.Depending on the dataset used,2023 was one of the three warmest years for Africa in the 124-year record.Regional climateFigure 2.Temperature difference in C with respect to the 19912020 climatological period for Africa(WMO Regional AssociationI)from 1900 to 2023,based on six datasets,including observational datasets.Source:Data are from thefollowing six datasets:Berkeley Earth,ERA5,GISTEMP,HadCRUT5,JRA-55,NOAAGlobalTemp.HadCRUT5(19002023)NOAAGlobalTemp(19002023)GISTEMP(19002023)Berkeley Earth(19002023)JRA-55(19582023)ERA5(19792023)1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Year 1.00.50.00.51.01.52.0C3TEMPERATURE IN THE AFRICAN SUBREGIONSTemperature trends are also analysed by subregion,considering overall geographic and climatic patterns,for North Africa,West Africa,Central Africa,East Africa,Southern Africa,and the Indian Ocean island countries(Figure3).Temperature trendsThe African continent continued to observe a warming trend,with an average rate of change of around 0.3C/decade between 1991 and 2023,compared to 0.2C/decade between 1961 and 1990.The recent trend is slightly higher than the global average warming trend(land/ocean)of around 0.2C/decade for the 19912023 period.All six African subregions have experienced an increase in the temperature trend over the past 60 years,compared to the period before 1960.The warming has been most rapid in North Africa,around 0.4C/decade between 1991 and 2023,compared to 0.2C/decade between 1961 and 1990.Southern Africa has experienced the lowest warming trend compared to the other subregions,around 0.2C/decade between 1991 and 2023(Figure4).Figure3.The six African subregions referred to in this report:North Africa(red),West Africa(yellow),Central Africa(green),East Africa(light blue),Southern Africa(dark blue),and the Indian Ocean island countries(purple)North AfricaWest AfricaCentral AfricaEast AfricaSouthern AfricaIndian Oceanisland countriesLongitude16 W 8 W 0 8 E 16 E 24 E 32 E 40 E 48 E 56 E 64 E40 N30 N20 N10 N010 S20 S30 SLatitudeFigure4.Trends in the area average temperature in C/decade for the six African subregions:North Africa(red),West Africa(yellow),Central Africa(green),East Africa(light blue),Southern Africa(dark blue),the Indian Ocean island countries(purple),and the whole of Africa(grey)over four 30-year sub-periods:19011930,19311960,19611990,and 19912023.The trends were calculated using different datasets,including observational datasets(HadCRUT5,NOAAGlobalTemp,GISTEMP,and Berkeley Earth)and reanalyses(JRA-55 and ERA5).The black vertical lines indicate the range of the six estimates.Trend(C/decade)0.60.40.20.00.2Trends19011930Trends19912022Trends19611990Trends19311960North AfricaWest AfricaCentral AfricaEastern AfricaSouthern AfricaIndian OceanAfrica4Temperature anomaliesIn 2023,temperatures were above the 19912020 average across Africa(Figure5,left).However,there are many data-sparse regions across the continent,where uncertainties are relatively high(Figure5,right).The highest temperature anomalies were recorded across north-western Africa,especially in Morocco,costal parts of Mauritania and north-west Algeria.North Africa recorded the highest 2023 temperature anomaly compared to the other African subregions:0.84C 0.69C1.00C above the 19912020 average and 1.68C 1.52C1.86C above the 19611990 average(seethe table).Table.Near-surface air temperature anomalies in C for 2023 relative to the 19912020 and 19611990 reference periods.Anomalies for the whole African continent and for each of the African sub-regions were calculated using six different datasets,including observational data sets(HadCRUT5,NOAAGlobalTemp,GISTEMP,and Berkeley Earth)and reanalyses (JRA-55and ERA5).The range of anomalies among these data sets is given in the brackets.1991202019611990North Africa0.84 C 0.69 C1.00 C1.68 C 1.52 C1.86 CWest Africa0.64 C 0.43 C0.80 C1.29 C 0.99 C1.48 CCentral Africa0.59 C 0.37 C0.86 C1.17 C 0.96 C1.34 CEast Africa0.61 C 0.38 C0.86 C1.29 C 1.18 C1.46 CSouthern Africa0.40 C 0.20 C0.58 C0.98 C 0.86 C1.09 CIndian Ocean island countries0.54 C 0.49 C0.64 C1.08 C 0.98 C1.19 CAfrica0.61 C 0.47 C0.81 C1.28 C 1.18 C1.40 CFigure5.Near-surface air temperature anomalies for 2023 relative to the 19912020 average(left)and estimated uncertainty in temperature anomalies for 2023(right).Anomalies are calculated as the median of six datasets,including observational datasets(HadCRUT5,NOAAGlobalTemp,GISTEMP,and Berkeley Earth)and reanalyses(JRA-55 and ERA5).Each dataset has been averaged onto a consistent 5 latitude by 5 longitude grid then plotted using a standard contouring algorithm that interpolates between the grid averages.CCAnnual temperature anomalies 2023Annual temperature anomalies uncertainty 20235.03.02.01.00.50.2500.250.51.02.03.05.0 1.00.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.05The regional averages mask some notable averages in individual countries.In 2023,several countries,including Mali,Morocco,the United Republic of Tanzania,and Uganda experienced their highest recorded temperatures,with Morocco having the highest temperature anomaly,at 1.25C above the 19912020 average.In contrast,Namibia and South Africa had the lowest temperature anomalies.The Southern Africa region registered the lowest 2023 temperature anomalies compared to the 19912020 average:0.40 C 0.20 C0.58 C.PRECIPITATIONIn 2023,many regions of Africa experienced precipitation levels comparable to those in 2022,except over the Sahel,where most areas recorded dry conditions.Precipitation anomalies were slightly above the 19912020 average in north-eastern Africa,large parts of East Africa and most coastal parts of Southern Africa.High precipitation anomalies were observed over Angola,large parts of central and eastern Central Africa,and coastal areas north of the Gulf of Guinea.Regions with a marked rainfall deficit included the western part of North Africa,the Horn of Africa,portions of Southern Africa,and Madagascar(Figure6,right).Figure6.Precipitation anomalies in mm for 2023(left):Blue areas indicate above-average precipitation,and brown areas indicate below-average precipitation.The reference period is 19912020.Precipitation quantiles for 2023(right):Green areas indicate unusually high precipitation totals(light green indicates the highest 20%,and dark green indicates the highest 10%of the observed totals).Brown areas indicate abnormally low precipitation totals(light brown indicates the lowest 20%,and dark brown indicates the lowest 10%of the observed totals).The reference period is 19912020.Source:Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC),Deutscher Wetterdienst(DWD),Germany550 450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450 550mm0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0QuantileDeviation from normal(19912020),2023GPCC quantile,reference 19912020,20236Below-normal annual rainfall prevailed over much of North and north-western Africa,especially Morocco,Algeria,Tunisia,and western Libya(Figure6,left),where the precipitation deficits exceeded 150mm(the lowest 10%of the observed totals during the 19912020 climatology period).Conversely,northern Egypt and the Jebel Akhdar in north-east Libya experienced above-average precipitation,with excesses of over 150mm(the highest 10%of the observed totals during the climatology period).West Africa experienced a normal to early onset of its monsoon rainy season,which was characterized by mostly average to above-average conditions.The western part of the region(southern-western Mauritania,north-western Senegal,western Guinea-Bissau and western Sierra Leone),and the eastern part of the region(south-western Nigeria),as well as southern coastal parts of Liberia,Cte dIvoire,Ghana,and Togo,benefited from wetter-than-average conditions(Figure6,right).Southern Mauritania,western Senegal,central Mali,western Burkina Faso,south-eastern Niger,southern Ghana,southern Togo,eastern Benin and parts of Nigeria received enhanced rainfall.Conversely,northern Mali,south-eastern Guinea,parts of Cte dIvoire and portions of Nigeria observed suppressed precipitation(Figure6,right).In Central Africa,wetter-than-normal conditions prevailed in most of the region,with precipitation anomalies exceeding 400mm above average in many parts of Democratic Republic of the Congo and Angola and eastern Central African Republic(Figure6,left).In East Africa,central Sudan,northern Ethiopia and Uganda suffered from below-normal precipitation.Wetter-than-normal conditions,with extreme rainfall in some areas were recorded in south-west Sudan,southern parts of Ethiopia,Somalia,Kenya,Burundi and Rwanda,and most parts of the United Republic of Tanzania.Heavy rainfall led to extensive flooding in Somalia,Ethiopia,and Kenya in October and November.These floods followed the most prolonged drought on record over the Horn of Africa from late 2020 to early 2023.In Southern Africa,positive rainfall anomalies of over 300mm were found across central and western Angola(Figure6,left).Most of Malawi and Mozambique,Eswatini and coastal parts of South Africa observed enhanced rainfall,with some areas in the highest 10%of theobserved totals during the climatology period.Conversely,rainfall deficits reaching 100mm were observed across Zambia,Botswana,and most of Namibia,as well as limited areas in the central part of South Africa and some areas in Zimbabwe(Figure6,right).In the West Indian Ocean,suppressed rainfall resulted in negative anomalies of over 200mm in northern and extreme southern Madagascar and Seychelles.In contrast,a rainfall surplus was recorded in Comoros and most areas in southern Madagascar(Figure6,left).7SEA LEVELSea level around the African continent continues to rise.Figure7 shows altimetry-based regional sea-level trends from the coast to 50km offshore from January 1993 to June 2024.The transition from blue to yellow corresponds to the global mean sea-level rise over the same timespan,amounting 3.4 /-0.3mm/year.The map shows some regional variability in the sea-level trend patterns on both the Atlantic and Indian Ocean sides of the continent.The rates of sea-level rise from January 1993 to June 2024 have been computed along the coastlines from the data shown in the boxes in Figure7.The table in Figure7 indicates the coastal sea-level trends that are computed for all seven regions for the same period.The rate of sea-level rise,which is estimated in bands 50km wide around the coast,is close to or slightly higher than the global mean in all the regions except for the southern Mediterranean Sea,where it is lower(3.0mm/year).The largest rate of observed sea-level rise is in the Red Sea(4.1mm/year).Figure7.Left:Spatial sea-level trends in the seven coastal regions of Africa covering the period from January 1993 to June 2024:Red Sea(1),Western Indian Ocean(2),South-west Indian Ocean(3),South-east Atlantic Ocean(4),Tropical Atlantic Ocean(5),North-east Atlantic Ocean(6)and Southern Mediterranean Sea(7).Right:Table indicating the sea-level rise in mm/year for the seven coastal regions of Africa and the global ocean.Source:Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S).See C3S Climate Data Store for more information on the datasets and methodology used to measure sea-level rise.Longitude40 W 20 W 0 20 E 40 E 60 E 80 E40 N40 W20 W040 S40 W20 SGMSL3.4642024mm/yr1234567Box numberOceanSea level rise rate(mm/year)1Red Sea4.1 0.22Western lndian Ocean4.0 0.23South-west lndian Ocean3.8 0.14South-east Atlantic3.5 0.15Tropical Atlantic3.7 0.16North-east Atlantic3.6 0.17Southern Mediterranean Sea3.0 0.2Global3.4 0.38The El NioSouthern Oscillation(ENSO)phases(El Nio and La Nia)and the sea-surface temperature(SST)anomaly patterns in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean usually constitute the main drivers of rainfall variability in Africa.La Nia conditions emerged in mid-2020 and continued through 2021 and 2022,finally coming to an end in March 2023.It is the third time that such a multi-year La Nia event has occurred in the last 50 years.La Nia was at moderate strength through the end of 2022,but ElNio conditions developed in mid-2023 and persisted to the end of the year(Figure8a).The Tropical Northern Atlantic(TNA)index was positive for most of 2022 and throughout 2023,reflecting positive SSTs in the eastern tropical North Atlantic Ocean(Figure8b).The Tropical Southern Atlantic(TSA)index was also positive for most of the year,reflecting the positive SSTs intheeastern Major drivers of climate variability affecting the regionFigure8.Time series of climate indices for 2022 and 2023:(a)Nio 3.4 index SST anomalies averaged over 5S5N;170W120W;(b)TNA index SST anomalies averaged over 5.5N23.5N;15W57.5W;(c)TSA index SST anomalies averaged over 020S;10E30W;(d)SWIO index SST anomalies averaged over 32S25S;31E 45E;(e)Indian Ocean DMI the difference between the SST anomalies over the tropical western Indian Ocean 10S10N;50E70E and the tropical eastern Indian Ocean 10S 0;90E110E.Anomalies are deviations from the 19822005 mean.Nio 3.4(a)2022202329-Jan26-Feb26-Mar23-Apr21-May18-Jun16-Jul01-Jan13-Aug10-Sep08-Oct05-Nov03-Dec31-Dec30-Jan27-Feb27-Mar24-Apr22-May19-Jun17-Jul02-Jan14-Aug11-Sep09-Oct06-Nov04-Dec2.51.50.50.51.5TNA(b)2022202329-Jan26-Feb26-Mar23-Apr21-May18-Jun16-Jul01-Jan13-Aug10-Sep08-Oct05-Nov03-Dec31-Dec30-Jan27-Feb27-Mar24-Apr22-May19-Jun17-Jul02-Jan14-Aug11-Sep09-Oct06-Nov04-Dec2.01.51.00.50.00.5TSA2022202329-Jan26-Feb26-Mar23-Apr21-May18-Jun16-Jul01-Jan13-Aug10-Sep08-Oct05-Nov03-Dec31-Dec30-Jan27-Feb27-Mar24-Apr22-May19-Jun17-Jul02-Jan14-Aug11-Sep09-Oct06-Nov04-Dec2.01.51.00.50.00.5(c)SWIO(d)2022202329-Jan26-Feb26-Mar23-Apr21-May18-Jun16-Jul01-Jan13-Aug10-Sep08-Oct05-Nov03-Dec31-Dec30-Jan27-Feb27-Mar24-Apr22-May19-Jun17-Jul02-Jan14-Aug11-Sep09-Oct06-Nov04-Dec1.51.00.50.00.51.0Dipole Mode Index(DMI)(e)2022202329-Jan26-Feb26-Mar23-Apr21-May18-Jun16-Jul01-Jan13-Aug10-Sep08-Oct05-Nov03-Dec31-Dec30-Jan27-Feb27-Mar24-Apr22-May19-Jun17-Jul02-Jan14-Aug11-Sep09-Oct06-Nov04-Dec210129tropical South Atlantic Ocean,except in October,when it was closer to neutral(Figure8c).The South-western Indian Ocean(SWIO)index fluctuated and was positive for most of 2023,except in June,July and November(Figure8d).The Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index(DMI)was positive during most of 2023,except in June,when it was closer to neutral(Figure8e).Positive TNA and TSA indices were favourable for above-average summer rainfall over West Africa.The positive SWIO index favoured well-above-average austral summer precipitation in many parts of South Africa and southern Madagascar.The warmer-than-average SSTs in the western Equatorial Indian Ocean(adjacent to the East African coastline),coupled with lower-than-average SSTs over the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean(adjacent to Australia),constituted a positive Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)which,although weak between January and June 2023,was favourable for enhanced rainfall over most of East Africa.10In 2023,many extreme climate events were reported across Africa.The continent was affected by heavy rainfall,floods,tropical cyclones,droughts,heatwaves,wildfires,and sandstorms.The extreme events in this section are described with respect to how they affected thedifferent subregions.FLOODSEXTREME FLOODING IN LIBYA AND ELSEWHEREIn terms of loss of life,the most significant event was the Mediterranean cyclone,referred to locally as Storm Daniel,in September 2023.After affecting Greece,Bulgaria and Trkiye,the storm was slow-moving in the eastern Mediterranean for several days before the main rainbands impacted north-eastern Libya on 10 and 11September.Extreme rainfall affected the coast and nearby mountains,with 414mm falling in 24hours at Al-Bayda on1011September.The intense rainfall resulted in extreme flooding in the region.The most severe impacts were inthe city of Derna(about 50km east of Al-Bayda),where much of the central city was destroyed by flooding(Figure9),exacerbated by the failure of two dams.At least 4700confirmed deaths inLibya have been attributed to the flooding with 8000 still missing(as of 15December 2023).8Tropical Cyclone Freddy,a long-lived cyclone in February and March 2023,formed off Australias western coast and moved west across the Indian Ocean.It passed north of Mauritius and Runion before making its first landfall on the east coast of Madagascar.Freddy re-intensified before making its second landfall in Mozambique.Although it dropped below cyclone intensity,it re-emerged over the Mozambique Channel and made its final landfall in Mozambique.Extreme climate eventsFigure9.Flooded areas and destroyed buildings(red circles)in Derna,Libya on 10September 2023Source:European Union,Copernicus Sentinel imageEMSR696-Floods in LibyaDetail from the Derna area of interestSituation as of 13 September2023 at 09:13 UTCLibya0100 mDernaCrisis informationFlooded areaFlood traceBuilt-up gradingDestroyedDamagedRoadsDestroyedPossibly damaged11The major impacts of Freddy resulted from flooding that occurred during its final landfall in Mozambique,with extremely heavy rainfall affecting both Mozambique and Malawi(up to 672mm in Mozambique).Malawi was especially hard hit by the flooding,with at least 679deaths reported.9 A further 165deaths were reported in Mozambique.Casualties were also reported in Madagascar(17deaths)and Zimbabwe.This catastrophic event submerged extensive agricultural areas and inflicted severe damage on crops.A major episode of severe flooding with associated landslides affected Central Africa inearly May,mainly the Lake Kivu region,on the border between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.On 2May,Mushubati recorded 183mm of rain,a national daily record for Rwanda,with records also set at several other Rwandan stations.At least 574 deaths were associated with this event,443 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo10 and 131 in Rwanda.11 Heavy rainfall in the early months of 2023 extended north to the Lake Victoria basin,further prolonging the flooding downstream in South Sudan which has persisted for much of the time since 2020.The White Nile River in White Nile State(South Sudan)reached record high levels in February.This prolonged flooding rendered basic needs such as food,clean water,and healthcare difficult to access and contributed to the near collapse of local livelihoods.In September and October,approximately 300000 people were affected by flooding across 10countries,with Niger,Benin,Ghana and Nigeria the most heavily impacted.Nearly 12000people in five countries in West and Central Africa were newly displaced due to flooding in July and August,bringing the total number of countries facing flood-related displacement in 2023 to nine.On 7October,heavy rainfall in the north of the Democratic Republic of the Congo triggered the flooding of several hectares of agricultural land and basic infrastructure,and in Ghana,heavy rainfall on 15October forced the Volta River Authority to initiate the spillage of excess water to address rising levels threatening the Akosombo and Kpong dams,resulting in flooding downstream along the banks of the Volta River and leading to the destruction of homes and farmlands(Figure10).Figure10.Flooding in Ghana on 20October 2023Source:A.Kaledzi12The Greater Horn of Africa region,which,prior to 2023,had endured a long-term drought,experienced substantial flooding in 2023,particularly later in the year with the onset of heavy rains associated with El Nio and the positive IOD.The most severely affected area was the region encompassing the southern half of Somalia,south-eastern Ethiopia and north-eastern Kenya.During the Deyr rainy season(October and November),monthly rainfall in this region generally ranged from 100mm to 200mm,and in some areas exceeded 200mm,several times the long-term averages.This followed widespread above-average rainfall during the Gu rainy season(April to June).There was extensive and severe flooding,with at least 352deaths and 2.4million displaced people reported across all three countries,although the wet conditions did lead to some recovery in pasture and crop conditions after the extended drought.Landslides and flooding in early December also resulted in at least 89 deaths in northern parts of the United Republic of Tanzania.DROUGHTSEXTREME DROUGHT IN SEVERAL PARTS OF AFRICAIn 2023,severe droughts,exceeding historical severity levels,occurred mainly in the coastal lands of northern Morocco,Tunisia and Algeria,but they also affected southern Cameroon,the Ethiopian highlands,northern Madagascar,and areas encompassing Zambia,eastern Angola and the southern Democratic Republic of the Congo(Figure 11).Figure11.Spatial distribution of(a)drought severity for 2023 and(b)the anomalies of drought severity for 2023 with respect to the reference period 19912020 based on the 12-month standardized precipitation index(SPI12)applied to GPCC(see https:/opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/GPCC/html/fulldata-monthly_v2020_doi_download.html).Drought severity is calculated as the absolute value of the sum of all SPI12 values lower than-1 from January to December 2023.LongitudeLatitude40 N20 N020 S40 S2023 drought severity20 W 0 20 E 40 E 60 E(a)(b)2023 drought severity anomalies40 N20 N020 S40 SLatitude20 W 0 20 E 40 E 60 E Longitude5.5 7.5 10.5 12.5 15.5 17.5 20.5 22.5 25.520 15 10 5 5 10 15 2013While some regions,such as the Horn of Africa,are emerging from severe drought,others,such as north-western Africa,continue to face high precipitation deficits which impact water resources.For example,Al Massira Dam Moroccos second largest dam after Al-Wahda Dam which has a storage capacity of more than 2.65billion cubic meters,registered its lowest fill level since its construction in 1976,at less than 6%,compared to almost 99%in May 2013(Figure12).Rainfall in Morocco for the 2022/2023 rainy season was 28low average,the fourth consecutive year with rainfall at least 20low average,and the countrys driest four-year period on record.Rainfall was also well below average in the early part of the 2023/2024 rainy season.HEATWAVES AND WILDFIRESThe extreme heat that impacted southern Europe also affected northern Africa on multiple occasions during July and August.The July heatwave broke records in Tunis,Tunisia,where the temperature reached a high of 49.0C.In August,the heatwave set a new record of 50.4C in Agadir,Morocco,marking the first time that 50.0C was reached in Morocco.Figure13 shows that many countries in Africa experienced heatwaves12 in 2023.North African countries,including Morocco and Algeria,as well as East and Central African countries,including Sudan,South Sudan,the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Central African Republic,experienced the highest number of heatwaves,with more than 14 events.Countries in Southern Africa,including Namibia,Botswana,Zambia,Angola and Madagascar also experienced a comparable number of heatwaves across most of their territories.In all these countries,the number of heatwaves in 2023 exceeded the climatological mean of 10 events.However,the amplitudes were maximal and surpassed the climatological mean only along the coastal regions of Morocco and Algeria,along the border of Sudan and South Sudan,and in north-western Ethiopia,although the latter regions are subject to large uncertainties with respect to temperature data.Figure12.Photograph of Al Massira Dam in 2023 showing its lowest fill level,approximately 5.6%.Upper right:Satellite image indicating the water storage extent in 2013 and 2023.Source:Main photograph:2M TV,Morocco.Satellite image:Landsat Image Gallery.14Drier conditions,combined with higher temperatures,contributed to increased fire weather conditions in North Africa.A number of wildfires were recorded in 17 prefectures in July in central and eastern Algeria,leading to at least 44 deaths,the evacuation of more than 1500 people from their villages,and the burning of 32000 hectares of forest.LongitudeLatitude30 N20 N10 N010 S20 S30 S141210864201296303691265432104.53.01.50.01.53.04.5(a)20232023 minus(19912020)(b)(c)20232023 minus(19912020)(d)10 W 10 E 30 E 50 E 10 W 10 E 30 E 50 E 30 N20 N10 N010 S20 S30 SLatitudeLongitudeFigure13.Spatial distribution of(a)the heatwave number(HWN)for 2023,(b)the anomalies of the HWN for 2023 with respect to the climatology of the reference period 19912020,(c)the heatwave amplitude(HWA),the peak daily value of the hottest heatwave for 2023 and(d)the anomalies of the HWA for 2023 with respect to the climatology of the reference period 19912020 using ERA5(see https:/cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-complete?tab=overview).15In 2023,extreme weather conditions caused widespread floods and below-average rainfall,leading to significant food production and supply shortages in the Central African Republic,Kenya,and Somalia.North Africas cereal production in 2023 was estimated at 33million tonnes,similar to the previous years already drought-stricken harvest and about 10low the five-year average.The largest production decrease occurred in Tunisia,where the cereal output was estimated at 300000 tonnes,over 80low the annual average due to widespread drought conditions.A decline was also reported in Algeria,where the cereal output was estimated at 3.6million tonnes,12%less than in 2022 and 20low the five-year average.In Morocco,the 2023 cereal output,estimated at 5.6million tonnes,recovered from the drought-affected 2022 harvest but was still about 30low the average.In Egypt and Libya,the 2023 cereal harvests were near average.Rainfall deficits between July and September affected parts of north-eastern and north-western Nigeria,northern Benin,and north-eastern Ghana,resulting in localized shortfalls in agricultural production.In most producing areas,cumulative rainfall amounts between June and September were average to above average,favouring crop establishment and development.In Niger,cereal production was forecast at a below-average level,as dry spells constrained yields mainly inthe southern and south-western areas,and a delayed onset of seasonal rains and persisting insecurity resulted in a reduced planted area.Localized shortfalls in agricultural production were expected in the conflict-affected areas of the Liptako-Gourma region(overlapping Mali,Niger and Burkina Faso),the Lake Chad Basin and northern Nigeria,due to constrained access to cropland and agricultural inputs.Erratic rainfall and insecurity kept cereal production at below-average levels in northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa,including Sudan,South Sudan,the Karamoja region in Uganda,Eritrea,Ethiopia,and central and western Kenya.In Sudan,seasonal rains were below average and temporally erratic,with prolonged dry spells.The production of sorghum and millet was forecast to decrease by about 25%and 50%,respectively,compared to 2022.In South Sudan,seasonal rainfall was near average over the western half of the country,and below average over the eastern half.The rainfall deficits were more severe in the south-eastern areas,causing shortfalls in crop production,which affected the first season harvest.In Ethiopia,the overall production prospects for the main meher crops were favourable,as above-average rainfall amounts boosted yields in the key western growing areas of the Amhara and Benishangul Gumuz regions.However,insecurity due to conflict in some areas of the Amhara and Oromia regions,along with insufficient rains in some central and southern areas of the Oromia and former Southern Nations,Nationalities and Peoples(SNNP)regions,likely resulted in localized shortfalls in cereal production.In key unimodal rainfall growing areas of the Central,Rift Valley and Western provinces of Kenya,long-rains crops benefited from average to above-average rainfall amounts.However,the aggregate long-rains maize production was estimated at 5%to10low the five-year average,as erratic rainfall inbimodal rainfall agropastoral and marginal agriculture areas resulted in reduced harvests in these locations.In Ethiopia,theDeyr and Hageya rains concluded with some of the highest cumulative totals in the 40-year historical record,leading to extensive flooding in the Somali,Oromia,and southern Ethiopia regions and resulting in the loss of main season crops among agropastoral communities,mainly in riverine areas along the Shebelle and Omo rivers.Nearly 27000 livestock died and over 72000 hectares of planted crops were destroyed.13 In Somalia,normal rainfall was received in the northern part and above-normal rainfall was received in the southern and central parts of the country during the Deyr season.Flooding events led to the loss of livestock and cropland.14 In Kenya,the rains were well above the 40-year average across most of thecountry.Enhanced pasture,forage,and water resources supported livestock production.Increased Climate-related impacts toagriculture and food security16agricultural production and labour opportunities were also reported.However,in northern and north-eastern Kenya,flooding affected around 640600 hectares of land,of which around 18300 hectares were cropland.15Favourable weather conditions in Southern Africa resulted in good cereal yields,though periods of rainfall deficits and tropical cyclones(for example,Tropical Cyclone Freddy)resulted in localized shortfalls in several areas.The total cereal production in 2023 was estimated at 41.2 million tonnes,about 12ove the previous five-year average.16 Bumper harvests were recorded in South Africa and Zimbabwe.In Malawi and Mozambique,cyclones and rainfall deficits caused extensive crop damage.Dry weather conditions late in the season in Angola and Namibia kept production levels unchanged year-on-year,but cereal harvests were nevertheless above the five-year average.El Nio conditions underpinned unfavourable 2023/2024 cereal production in Southern Africa.The onset of the October to December rains was delayed by three to four weeks in central parts of the region,resulting in delayed planting and potential shortening of the crop-growing window.Rainfall was below average in the southern half of the region,affecting early season crop development.The period from November through early December was particularly dry,resulting in the permanent wilting of some crops that were planted in October.17 In addition,despite the recent easing of international fertilizer prices,access of farmers to agricultural inputs was being constrained by weak national currencies in multiple countries,which kept domestic prices elevated.1817INVESTMENT NEEDED FOR ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE-BUILDING INAFRICA The increasing frequency and severity of weather and climate extremes disproportionately affect African economies and societies,leading to natural disasters and disrupting economic,ecological and social systems.Climate-related hazards,including droughts,floods,cyclones and heatwaves,exacerbate food insecurity,water scarcity,and displacement,and cause African countries to lose,on average,2%to 5%of their gross domestic product(GDP)annually,with many countries diverting up to 9%of their budgets into unplanned expenditures to respond to extreme weather events.By 2030,it is estimated that up to 118 million extremely poor people(those living on less than US$1.90/day)will be exposed to drought,floods and extreme heat in Africa if adequate response measures are not put in place.This will place additional burdens on poverty alleviation efforts and significantly hamper growth.Figure14 shows the types of hazards of greatest concern in Africa based on an analysis of the nationally determined contributions(NDCs)of 53 African countries.Climate-resilient development in Africa requires investments in hydrometeorological infrastructure and early warning systems to prepare for escalating high-impact hazardous events.In sub-Saharan Africa alone,it is estimated that climate adaptation will cost US$30billion to US$50 billion(2%3%of the regional GDP)per year over the next decade.Investments in National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs)in Africa are needed to enhance data collection and improve forecasting capabilities in order to strengthen the ability of these institutions to issue early warnings and advisories for extreme events.There is a particular need to invest in cutting-edge technologies and systems to enhance the accuracy and lead time of weather,climate,and hydrological forecasts.Climate policy and strategic perspectivesFigure14.Hazards of greatest concern for the African region.This graph was generated by WMO using the NDCs of 53 countries in Africa based on the active NDCs submitted as of June 2024.FloodDroughtTemperature increaseChanges in precipitation patternsSea-level riseStormWildfireLandslideDust stormPests and disease4840393830261814331020304050Number of countries18These investments in NMHSs and early warning systems in Africa can be targeted to enhance and modernize observational networks with advanced weather monitoring instruments,toupgrade forecasting and modelling capabilities to improve the accuracy and timeliness ofpredictions,to establish robust communication channels to disseminate warnings to vulnerable communities,to integrate advanced technology,such as remote sensing and satellite imagery,for accurate predictions and risk assessment,to enhance training and capacity-building for meteorologists and hydrologists,and to foster collaboration and partnerships for knowledge exchange and resource sharing among African countries and international organizations.These investments are crucial for building resilience against weather-related disasters,safeguarding lives and livelihoods,and promoting sustainable development across the continent.CLIMATE SERVICES CAPACITIESClimate services refer to the provision and use of climate data,information,and knowledge with the aim of helping people make better informed decisions.The effectiveness of these services depends on good communication between the service provider and the recipient,as well as a reliable access system that enables quick and effective action.Based on data collected from 52 WMO Members in the region,58%of Members in Africa(31 in total)currently provide climate services at either“essential”or“full”capacity,as shown in Figure15.Figure15.Overview of generalized(not sector-specific)climate services capacities based on the data collected from 52WMO Members in AfricaSource:WMO Checklist for Climate Services Implementation,as of June 20248%Less than basic14.9sic16.8%Essential35.6%Full22.8vanced7.9No data2.0Figure16 shows that 91%of WMO Members in Africa provide climate data services to the agriculture and food security sector.However,66%provide tailored products and 57%provide climate change projections for this sector.The NMHSs self-reported their level of service provision on a scale of 1 to 6,where 1 represents initial engagement and 6 represents full engagement.The average score for the region was 3.3 out of 6,indicating that most of the engagement is in the initial stages.This suggests that the focus is primarily on identifying needs(1 to 3 on the scale)rather than on providing tailored products and services(4 to 6 on the scale).19STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVESNMHSs are responsible for providing early warning services to reduce disaster risks and for supporting national development and life-supporting activities that are sensitive to weather,climate and water.They conduct systematic observations and data gathering,which form the foundation for monitoring and predicting weather,climate,water and related environmental conditions,including issuing warnings,alerts and advisories.Delivering weather,climate,water information effectively and efficiently,collaborating with the media to ensure that forecasts and warnings reach last-mile communities,and fostering international cooperation through the exchange of meteorological data and products are fundamental for NMHSs to maintain their relevance and visibility.Figure16.Climate services provided by NMHSs in Africa to the agriculture and food security sector.The percentages are based on the information provided by 53 African Members.Source:WMO Checklist for Climate Services Implementation,as of June 202490.6.2s.6.0V.6f.0%1.9%9.4.0%9.45.8 .8%7.5%9.4%9.4%7.6%7.6.2ta servicesClimate monitoringClimate predictionsClimate change projectionsTailored productsNoYesNo dataClimate analysis and diagnostics20African countries and their respective policymakers should adopt holistic and integrated approaches to navigate the complexities of climate change negotiations,building resilience and a sustainable future for the next generations.In this regard,they should:i)Systematically invest in the climate information system and early warning system components.Effective weather and climate services are critical to better manage risks due to climate variability and longer-term changes in climate-sensitive sectors.The overall cost-to-benefit ratio of these investments is one to 10.20 However,the benefits of systematically investing in strengthening the operational regional-national hydrometeorological system needed for climate services outweigh the costs by about 80 to one.21 ii)Explore innovative financing mechanisms.Africa should explore innovative financing mechanisms,including private sector investments,debt-for-nature swaps,and debt-for-climate swaps to secure predictable climate financing for climate action,sustainability,and job creation.iii)Capitalize on the continents right to just energy transition.According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa,Africa needs investment of at least US$2trillion by 2050 in the power sector alone to drive green growth on the continent.22iv)Embrace initiatives aimed at building Africas climate resilience.Policymakers should continue supporting regional initiatives,such as the recently launched African Development Bank Climate Action Window,which aims to mobilize up to US$14 billion to support adaptation in 37 low-income countries,the Early Warnings for All(EW4ALL)initiative launched by the United Nations Secretary-General,the Climate for Development in Africa(ClimDev-Africa)Programme,the Africa Climate Resilient Investment Facility(AFRI-RES),the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa(AICCRA)project,the Intra-African,Caribbean and Pacific(ACP)Climate Services and related Applications Programme(ClimSA),and others.v)Ensure that adaptation remains the priority.Although Africa should continue to call for scaling up climate finance to make up for the shortfall caused by the failure to deliver US$100 billion per year by 2020 and through 2025,its group of negotiators should,in addition to soliciting the doubling of adaptation finance,also solicit the finalization of the New Quantified Goal on Climate Finance.vi)Actively engage in the global stocktake.The global stocktake(GST),as enshrined in Article14 of the Paris Agreement,takes place every five years to review collective efforts and results in all areas of the Paris Agreement.In October 2023,at the Twenty-eighth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)(COP28),in Dubai,the Parties adopted a decision on the GST that recognizes the need for enhanced resiliency and deep,rapid,and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5C pathways.NMHSs should ensure that climate data and information are included in the next generation of NDCs and have the goal of enhancing resiliency and adaptive capacity in line with rising temperatures.vii)Promote partnership and collaboration.Promoting community participation,indigenous knowledge systems,and gender-responsive approaches can foster social cohesion,empower marginalized groups,and enhance adaptive capacities at the grassroots level.Regional cooperation,knowledge-sharing,and South-South partnerships should also be promoted to facilitate the exchange of best practices,resources,and expertise to address common climate challenges collaboratively.In this regard,establishing and operationalizing the continental and national-level working groups on loss and damage(L&D)is critical to enabling access to the newly established L&D Fund.21INVESTMENTS IN CLIMATE RESEARCH AND INNOVATION TO DRIVE AFRICAS GREEN TRANSITION AGENDAOne of the goals of Agenda 2063 of the African Union(AU)is the creation of environmentally sustainable and climate-resilient economies and communities.Research and innovation are identified as key drivers to achieve sustained growth,competitiveness,and economic transformation throughout the continent.The inaugural 2023 Africa Climate Summit convened experts,policymakers,and practitioners in Nairobi to discuss overarching climate issues and strategies,emphasizing the role of science,technology,and industry in socioeconomic development.Through the Nairobi Declaration,23 African Heads of State and Government committed to,inter alia,building effective partnerships to meet the needs for financial,technical,and technological support and knowledge-sharing for climate change adaptation.They also committed to strengthening early warning systems and climate services to protect lives,livelihoods,and assets.The Nairobi Declaration reinvigorates previous initiatives and commitments,such as the African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan(20222032),24 which outlines specific interventions and actions to address climate change impacts on the continent.The strategy emphasizes the need to enhance capacity in the generation,uptake,and effective use of climate services through,inter alia,training courses,experiential learning,and inter-institutional partnerships.Accordingly,targeted investment is required to sustain the gains made in,and hasten the march towards,socializing climate science and translating research into scaled-up climate action.This calls for more research to develop climate actions,including approaches to effective climate change financing and technology transfer to support local communities in adapting to the ever-changing impacts of climate change in order to ultimately achieve the desired outcomes.22All datasets and their use are subject to licence or permission even if from an open source.Please consult the data download pages for appropriate supportTEMPERATURE DATAGRIDDED DATASix datasets(cited below)were used in the calculation of regional temperature.Regional mean temperature anomalies were calculated relative to 19611990 and 19912020 baselines using the following steps:1.Read the gridded dataset;2.Regrid the data to 1 latitude 1 longitude resolution.If the gridded data are higher resolution,take a mean of the grid boxes within each 1 1 grid box.If the gridded data are lower resolution,copy the low-resolution grid box value into each 1 1 grid box that falls inside the low-resolution grid box;3.For each month,calculate the regional area average using only those 1 1 grid boxes whose centres fall within the region;4.For each year,take the mean of the monthly area averages to obtain an annual area average;5.Calculate the mean of the annual area averages over the periods 19611990 and 19912020;6.Subtract the 30-year period average from each year.Note that the range and mean of anomalies relative to the two different baselines are based on different sets of data.The following six datasets were used:Berkeley Earth:Rohde,R.A.;Hausfather,Z.The Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean Temperature Record.Earth System Science Data 2020,12,34693479.https:/doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3469-2020.The data are available here.ERA5:Hersbach,H.;Bell,B.;Berrisford,P.et al.The ERA5 Global Reanalysis.Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 2020,146(730),19992049.https:/doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803.ERA5:Hersbach,H.;Bell,B.;Berrisford,P.et al.Complete ERA5 from 1940:Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate.Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S)Data Store(CDS),2017.https:/doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf.ERA5.1:Simmons,A.;Soci,C.;Nicolas,J.et al.ERA5.1:Rerun of the Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate(2000-2006 only).Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S)Data Store(CDS),2020.https:/doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf.ERA5.1:Bell,B.,Hersbach,H.,Simmons,A.et al.The ERA5 Global Reanalysis:Preliminary Extension to 1950.Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 2021,147(741),41864227.https:/doi.org/10.1002/qj.4174.GISTEMP v4:Lenssen,N.;Schmidt,G.;Hansen,J.et al.Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2019,124(12),63076326.https:/doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029522.Datasets and methods23GISTEMP v4:GISTEMP Team,2022:GISS Surface Temperature Analysis(GISTEMP),version 4.NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,https:/data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.Lenssen,N.;Schmidt,G.;Hansen,J.et al.Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2019,124,63076326.https:/doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029522.The data are available here.HadCRUT.5.0.2.0:Morice,C.P.;Kennedy,J.J.;Rayner,N.A.et al.An Updated Assessment of Near-Surface Temperature Change From 1850:The HadCRUT5 Data Set.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2021,126,e2019JD032361.https:/doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032361.HadCRUT.5.0.1.0 data were obtained from http:/www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5 on 19March 2024 and are British Crown Copyright,Met Office 2023,provided under an Open Government Licence,http:/www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/.JRA-55:Kobayashi,S.;Ota,Y.;Harada,Y.et al.The JRA-55 Reanalysis:General Specifications and Basic Characteristics.Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan.Ser.II 2015,93,548.https:/doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001.The data are available here.NOAAGLOBALTEMP:Huang,B.;Menne,M.J.;Boyer,T.et al.Uncertainty Estimates for Sea Surface Temperature and Land Surface Air Temperature in NOAAGlobalTemp Version 5.Journal ofClimate 2020,33(4),13511379.https:/doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0395.1.NOAAGLOBALTEMP:Zhang,H.-M.;Lawrimore,J.H.;Huang,B.et al.Updated Temperature Data Give aSharper View of Climate Trends.Eos,19 July 2019.https:/doi.org/10.1029/2019EO128229.IN SITU DATATemperature in situ data are provided by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.PRECIPITATION DATAGRIDDED DATASchneider,U.;Becker,A.;Finger,P.et al.GPCC Monitoring Product:Near Real-time Monthly Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain-gauges based on SYNOP and CLIMAT data;Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC),2020.http:/dx.doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/MP_M_V2020_100.Schneider,U.;Becker,A.;Finger,P.et al.GPCC Full Data Monthly Product Version 2020 at 1.0:Monthly Land-surface Precipitation from Rain-gauges built on GTS-based and Historical Data,2020.http:/dx.doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V2020_100.IN SITU DATATemperature in situ data are provided by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATAReynolds,R.W.;Rayner,N.A.;Smith,T.M.et al.An Improved in Situ and Satellite SST Analysis for Climate.Journal of Climate 2002,15(13),16091625.https:/doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)0152.0.CO;2.Data:NOAA NCEP EMC CMB GLOBAL Reyn_SmithOIv2 monthly sst(columbia.edu)24SEA LEVEL DATAGurou,A.,Meyssignac,B.,Prandi,P.et al.Current Observed Global Mean Sea Level Rise and Acceleration Estimated from Satellite Altimetry and the Associated Uncertainty,EGUsphere 2022 preprint.https:/doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-330.EM-DAT DATAEM-DAT data(www.emdat.be)were used for historical climate impact calculations.EM-DAT is a global database on natural and technological disasters,containing essential core data on the occurrence and effects of more than 21 000 disasters in the world from 1900 to the present.EM-DAT is maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters(CRED)at the School of Public Health of the Universit catholique de Louvain,located in Brussels,Belgium.The indicators used for mortality,number of people affected and economic damage were total deaths,number affected and total damages(in thousands of US dollars),respectively.CLIMATE SERVICESWMO analysis of nationally determined contributionsChecklist for Climate Services Implementation(Members climate services capacities,based on responses to this Checklist,can be viewed here)WMO Climate Services Dashboard25CONTRIBUTORSErnest Afiesimama(WMO),Jorge Alvar-Beltrn(Food and Agriculture Organization oftheUnited Nations(FAO),Yosef Amha(Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa-Eastern and Southern Africa(AICCRA-ESA),Omar Baddour(overall coordinator of WMO State oftheClimate reports),Anny Cazenave(Laboratoire dEtudes en Gophysique et Ocanographie Spatiales(LEGOS),Solomon Dawit(AICCRA-ESA),Amir H.Delju(WMO),Teferi Demissie(AICCRA-ESA),Sarah Diouf(WMO),Ilaria Gallo(WMO),Aynalem G.Getie(African Climate Policy Centre(ACPC),Bernard Edward Gomez(WMO),Atsushi Goto(WMO),Veronica Grasso(WMO),Peer Hechler(WMO),Christopher Hewitt(WMO),Andre Kamga(African Centre ofMeteorological Applications for Development(ACMAD),Mariane Diop Kane(WMO),John Kennedy(WMO),Agnes Kijazi(WMO),Joseph Kinyangi(African Development Bank(AFDB),Caroline Kirungu(FAO),Lancelot Leclercq(LEGOS),Filipe Lucio(WMO),Mark Majodina(WMO),Atsushi Minami(Japan),Linus Mofor(ACPC),Nakiete Msemo(WMO),James Murombedzi(ACPC),Harsen Nyambe(African Union Commission(AUC),Obed Ogega(African Academy of Sciences(AAS),Claire Ransom(WMO),Frank Rutabingwa(United Nations Economic Commission for Africa(UNECA),Rachid Sebbari(co-lead author,Directorate General ofMeteorology(DGM),Morocco),Zablon W.Shilenje(WMO),Jose Alvaro Silva(WMO),Romeo Sosthne Nkurunziza(co-lead author,Norwegian Capacity(NORCAP)/ACMAD),Johan Stander(WMO),Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla(African Institute for Mathematical Sciences,Research and Innovation Centre(AIMSRIC),Rwanda),Blair Trewin(Australia),Saeed Vazifehkhah(WMO),Jolly Wasambo(AUC),Modathir Zaroung(Nile Basin Initiative(NBI),Markus Ziese(Deutscher Wetterdienst(DWD),Germany)EXPERT TEAM ON CLIMATE MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT(REVIEWERS)Jessica Blunden(co-lead,United States of America),Randall S.Cerveny(USA),Ladislaus Benedict Changa(United Republic of Tanzania),John Kennedy(lead,United Kingdom ofGreat Britain and Northern Ireland),Liudmila Kolomeets(Russian Federation),Renata Libonati(Brazil),Atsushi Minami(Japan),Awatif Ebrahim Mostafa(Egypt),Serhat Sensoy(Trkiye),Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan(Indonesia),Jose Luis Stella(Argentina),Blair Trewin(Australia),Freja Vamborg(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),ZhiweiZhu(China)CONTRIBUTING ORGANIZATIONSAAS,ACMAD,ACPC,AICCRA-ESA,AFDB,AIMSRIC,AUC,FAO,Indian Ocean Commission(IOC),LEGOS,NBI,NORCAP,Southern African Development CommunityClimate Services Centre(SADC-CSC),UNECA,WMO African Regional Climate Centre(RCC),WMO RCC-Intergovernmental Authority on Development(RCC-IGAD),WMO RCC-Network-North Africa(RCC-Network-NA),WMO Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS)RCC for West Africa,NBI and the Sahel(RCC-WAS)CONTRIBUTING WMO MEMBERSAlgeria,Cabo Verde,Congo,Cte DIvoire,Ghana,Guinea-Bissau,Kenya,Libya,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritius,Morocco,Mozambique,Namibia,Senegal,Seychelles,Somalia,South Africa,Uganda,United Republic of TanzaniaList of contributors261 Data are from the following datasets:Berkeley Earth,ERA5,GISTEMP v4,HadCRUT.5.0.1.0,JRA-55,NOAAGlobalTempv5.For details regarding these datasets,see the Datasets and methods section in the State of the Global Climate 2023(WMO-No.1347).2 World Meteorological Organization(WMO).State of the Global Climate 2023(WMO-No.1347).Geneva,2024.3 http:/www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/mlo.html4 https:/www.csiro.au/greenhouse-gases/5 Friedlingstein,P.;OSullivan,M.;Jones,M.W.et al.Global Carbon Budget 2022.Earth System Science Data 2022,14(11),48114900.https:/doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022.6 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate;Prtner,H.-O.;Roberts,D.C.;Masson-Delmotte,V.et al.,Eds.;Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,UK and New York,USA,2019.https:/www.ipcc.ch/srocc/.7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;Masson-Delmotte,V.;Zhai,P.;Pirani,A.et al.,Eds.;Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,UK and New York,USA,2021.https:/www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/.8 https:/reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-flood-response-humanitarian-update-15-december-2023-enar9 EM-DAT(https:/www.emdat.be/)10 EM-DAT(https:/www.emdat.be/)quotes 2970 for the Democratic Republic of the Congo,but this appears to include 2500 initially reported missing.11 EM-DAT(https:/www.emdat.be/)12 A heatwave is defined as a period of three consecutive days during which the 90th percentile of the maximum temperature threshold is exceeded.This is measured using an index called Excess Heat Index Significance (EHIsig=(Ti Ti1 Ti2)/3 T90,where Ti is the 2m daily maximum temperature for day i,and T90 is the climatological 90th percentile of the maximum temperature for each calendar day of the year based on a moving window of 15 days,computed for the 19912020 climatological period).13 https:/reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/east-africa-food-security-outlook-december-202314 https:/ https:/ https:/openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/40d4a160-c5be-47e8-a6de-3f8edb1081f1/content17 https:/ https:/openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/40d4a160-c5be-47e8-a6de-3f8edb1081f1/content19 The NMHSs ranked their level of service provision using the following scale:1=Initial engagement with the sector;2=Definition of needs;3=Co-design of products;4=Tailored products accessible for use;5=Climate services guide policy decisions and investment plans in sectors;6=Documentation of socioeconomic benefits.20 https:/wmo.int/news/media-centre/benefits-of-investments-climate-services-agriculture-and-food-security-outweigh-costs 21 https:/wmo.int/news/media-centre/benefits-of-investments-climate-services-agriculture-and-food-security-outweigh-costs 22 https:/www.uneca.org/stories/africas-top-six-priorities-at-cop28#:text=Findings by the UN Economic,in the power sector alone.23 https:/bit.ly/3unqrYN24 https:/bit.ly/42uC50AEndnotesFor more information,please contact:World Meteorological Organization7 bis,avenue de la Paix P.O.Box 2300 CH 1211 Geneva 2 SwitzerlandStrategic Communications Office Cabinet Office of the Secretary-GeneralTel: 41(0)22 730 83 14 Fax: 41(0)22 730 80 27Email:communicationswmo.int wmo.intJN 241033
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State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean2023WMO-No.1351WEATHER CLIMATE WATERBWMO-No.1351 World Meteorological Organization,2024The right of publication in print,electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO.Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization,provided that the complete source is clearly indicated.Editorial correspondence and requests to publish,reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to:Chair,Publications BoardWorld Meteorological Organization(WMO)7 bis,avenue de la Paix Tel.: 41(0)22 730 84 03P.O.Box 2300 Email:publicationswmo.intCH-1211 Geneva 2,Switzerland ISBN 978-92-63-11351-1Cover illustration from Adobe Stock by Gian:Beautiful aerial view of the Panama Canal at sunsetThe designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area,or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members.iContentsKey messages.iiForeword.iiiGlobal climate context.1Regional climate.2Major climate drivers.2Temperature.3Precipitation.6Glaciers .7Sea level.8Extreme events.10Tropical cyclones.10Heavy precipitation,floods and landslides.12Droughts.13Heatwaves and wildfires.17Cold waves and snow.18Climate-related impacts andrisks.19Affected population and damages.19Agriculture and food security.19Health .22Enhancing climate resilience and adaptation policies forhealth.23Strengthening climatehealth cooperation.23Weather and climate services capacities.25Datasets and methods.28List of contributors.31Endnotes.33We need your feedbackThis year,the WMO team has launched a process to gather feedback on the State of the Climate reports and areas for improvement.Once you have finished reading the publication,we ask that you kindly give us your feedback by responding to this short survey.Your input is highly appreciated.In Latin America and the Caribbean,2023 was the warmest year on record.Sea level continued to rise at a higher rate than the global mean around much of theAtlantic part of the region,threatening the coastal areas of several countries and small island developing States.Hurricane Otis made landfall as a Category5 strength hurricane near Acapulco,Mexico,leading to major losses in life and infra-structure.Otis was the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific Basin,with one of the most rapid rates ofintensification.Floods and landslides triggered by heavy rainfall led to significant fatalities and economic losses across the region.In So Sebastio,Brazil,683mm of rainfall accu-mulated in 15hours,triggering a landslide that led to at least 65deaths.Climate services are pivotal in enhancing de-cision-making and action in various sectors.Despite recent developments and successful initiatives,only 38%of WMO Members in the region indicated providing tailored climate products for the healthsector.Extreme heat and heatwaves led to health impacts throughout the year,including excess mortality.Between 2000 and 2019,there was an average of 36 695 heat-related excess deaths in the region per year.Intense and severe drought,exacerbated by heatwaves,affected large areas of Latin America during 2023.By the end of the year,76%of Mexico was experiencing some degree of drought.The Negro River in the Amazon hit a record low level since observations began in 1902.In the Panama Canal,low water levels re-stricted ship traffic from August onward.Exceptionally high temperatures and dry conditions also impacted wildlife.In Tef Lake,in the Brazilian Amazon,water tem-perature reached a record high and over 150 river dolphins(Boto-cor-de-rosa)were reported dead.Agricultural losses were reported in many countries in the region due to extreme weather and climate events.Such impacts exacerbated food insecurity,especially in communities reliant on agriculture for their livelihoods.Key messagesiiiThe present WMO report is the fourth in an annual series starting with the year 2020.It summarizes the observed climate trends and high-impact events,as well as associated socioeconomic impacts,in Latin America and the Caribbean(LAC).Tropical cyclones,heavy precipitation and flooding events,extreme heat and severe droughts led to significant human and economic losses in the region throughout 2023.The second half of 2023 was particularly influenced globally by El Nio conditions,which contributed to a record warm year and exacerbated extreme events in the region.This happened on top ofwell-established long-term climate change and the associated rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events.Among many climatic hazards recorded in LAC,Hurricane Otis hit Acapulco,in Mexico,asaCategory 5 hurricane,devastating the area and leading to dozens of fatalities and billions ofdollars in damage.The drought in the Amazon was another noteworthy high-impact event of the year.It was so intense that the Negro River,at Manaus,recorded its lowest level in more than 120 years of observations.The report highlights the advances made in integrating meteorological data into health surveillance(focusing on disease),reflecting a move towards stronger public health strategies.Despite this improvement,there is still a need for substantial developments and investments in weather services infrastructure and tailored climate services.There are major gaps in the weather and climate observing networks,especially in the least developed countries and small island developing States;these gaps represent an obstacle tothe provision of early warnings,adequate climate services and effective climate monitoring,especially at the regional and national scales.WMO works with its Members and partners toimprove climate observations through the Global Climate Observing System(GCOS)and by ensuring adequate financial mechanisms for weather and climate observations through the Systematic Observations Financing Facility(SOFF).Early warnings are fundamental for anticipating and reducing the impacts of extreme events.WMO is leading the United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative and its Executive Action Plan.The Action Plan,launched by United Nations Secretary-General Antnio Guterres during the World Leaders Summit at the United Nations 2022 Climate Change Conference(COP27),provides anew horizon for strengthening Earth system observations,monitoring and warning capabilities.I wish to congratulate and thank the lead authors,contributing experts,scientists and organi-zations for their collaboration and input into the production,review and timely delivery of this publication.I am also grateful to the WMO Member National Meteorological and Hydrological Services,Regional Climate Centres and United Nations agencies for their forefront role inensuring adequate data and information used in the analysis provided in this report.Foreword(Prof.Celeste Saulo)Secretary-General1The global annual mean near-surface temperature in 2023 was 1.450.12C above the 18501900 pre-industrial average.The year 2023 was the warmest year on record according to six global temperature datasets.The past nine years,2015 to 2023,were the nine warmest years on record in all datasets.Atmospheric concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases each reached new record observed highs in 2022,the latest year for which consolidated global figures are available,with levels of carbon dioxide(CO2)at 417.90.2parts per million(ppm),methane(CH4)at 19232parts per billion(ppb)and nitrous oxide(N2O)at 335.80.1ppbrespectively 150%,264%and 124%of pre-industrial(pre-1750)levels(Figure1).Real-time data from specific locations,including Mauna Loa1(Hawaii,United States of America)and Kennaook/Cape Grim2(Tasmania,Australia)indicate that levels of CO2,CH4 and N2O continued to increase in 2023.Over the past two decades,the ocean warming rate has increased,and the ocean heat content in 2023 was the highest on record.Ocean warming and accelerated loss of ice mass from the ice sheets contributed to the rise of the global mean sea level by 4.77mm per year between 2014 and 2023,reaching a new record high in 2023.Between 1960 and 2021(latest available data),the ocean absorbed about 25%of annual anthropogenic emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere.CO2 reacts with seawater and lowers its pH.The limited number of long-term observations in the open ocean have shown a decline in pH,with a reduction of the average global surface ocean pH of 0.0170.027pHunits per decade since the late 1980s.This process,known as ocean acidification,affects many organisms and ecosystem services,and threatens food security by endangering fisheries and aquaculture.Global climate context(a)Carbon dioxide concentration(b)Methane concentration(c)Nitrous oxide concentration(d)Carbon dioxide growth rate(e)Methane growth rate(f)Nitrous oxide growth rate 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020ppmppbppbppm/yearppb/yearppb/year 340 360 380 400 420 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 300 310 320 330 340 0 1 2 3 4 0 5 10 15 20 5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5Figure 1.Top row:monthly globally averaged mole fraction(measure of atmospheric concentration),from1984 to 2022,of(a)CO2 in parts per million,(b)CH4 in parts per billion and(c)N2O in parts per billion.Bottom row:the growth rates representing increases in successive annual means of mole fractions for(d)CO2 in parts per million per year,(e)CH4 in parts per billion per year and(f)N2O in parts per billion per year.2The following sections analyse key indicators of the climate in Latin America and the Caribbean(LAC).One such indicator that is particularly important,temperature,is described in terms of anomalies,or departures from a reference period.For global mean temperature,the Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)3 uses the reference period 18501900 for calculating anomalies relative to pre-industrial levels.However,this pre-industrial reference period cannot be used in all regions as a baseline for calculating regional anomalies,due to insufficient data for calculating region-specific averages before 1900.Instead,there are two more recent climatological standard average reference periods with sufficient data for computing regional temperature anomalies and other indicators:19611990,which is a fixed reference period recommended by WMO for assessing long-term temperature change,and 19912020,which is the most recent climatological standard average reference period.In the present report,exceptions to the use of these baseline periods for calculating anomalies,where they occur,are explicitly noted.MAJOR CLIMATE DRIVERSLAC is surrounded by the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans,and the climate in the region is largely influenced by the prevailing sea-surface temperatures(SSTs)and associated large-scale atmosphereocean coupling phenomena,such as the ElNioSouthern Oscillation(ENSO).Central and eastern tropical Pacific SST conditions are crucial for identifying the onset of ElNio and LaNia and their influence on climate patterns and extremes,both worldwide and in the LAC region.The tropical Pacific and Atlantic are also essential influences on LACs climate variability,particularly in areas such as the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador,Amazonia,north-eastern Brazil,south-eastern South America,and,during the hurricane season,the tropical North Atlantic,the eastern coast of Mexico and the Caribbean.A multi-year La Nia event began in mid-2020 and ended in early 2023.Subsequently,sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific increased,crossing typical ElNio thresholds by June.However,the atmosphere was slower to respond,and it was not until early September that El Nio conditions were well established in both the atmosphere and ocean.By the end of the year,a strong El Nio had developed,with the Oceanic Nio Index(ONI)4 reaching 2C for the November 2023January 2024 period,the highest value since the 2015/16 ElNio,and indicative of a strong ElNio.Figure2 shows annual SST anomalies in 2023 inmost of the Pacific Ocean,including in the Nio3.4region,and part of the Atlantic Ocean.An important aspect was the warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific,but also the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.Regional climateLatitudeLongitude20 N020 S40 S60 S120 E 140 E 160 E 180 160 W 140 W 120 W 100 W 80 W 60 W 40 W 20 W 5432101234 5Nio 3.4CResolution:0.25 x 0.25Figure 2.Annual SST anomalies(C)in 2023(reference period:19912020).The box“Nio3.4”represents the Nio 3.4SST Index region(5N5S,120W170W).Source:National Oceanic andAtmospheric Association(NOAA)National Centers forEnvironmental Prediction(NCEP)Global Ocean Data Assimilation System(GODAS),produced by CIIFEN3The 2023 ElNio event was associated with higher air temperatures and precipitation deficits(see Precipitation)over Mexico,the Peruvian-Bolivian Altiplano and the Amazon,as well as increased rainfall in parts of south-eastern South America.It also prolonged a pre-existing drought over much of the south-western Amazon that,together with higher temperatures,led to extreme low river levels in most of the region during the southern hemisphere spring.5 As of 31December,76%of Mexico was in drought,according to the most recent data from the countrys water service(CONAGUA),including extreme drought across much of central and north Mexico.TEMPERATUREThe 2023 mean temperature in LAC was the highest on record,0.82C above the 19912020 average(anomaly of 0.75C0.96C,depending on the dataset used).Relative to a 19611990 baseline,2023 was 1.39C warmer(anomaly of 1.24C1.62C,depending on the dataset used)(Table1).The annual mean temperature anomalies relative to the 19912020 average across the LAC region are shown in Figure3 and Table1(see details regarding the datasets in theDatasets and methodssection).Warming was more pronounced in the region in 2023 compared to 2022 due to an ElNio phenomenon.The 19912023 period shows the highest warming trend(about 0.2C or higher per decade)since 1900 in the LAC region(compared with the previous 30-year periods of 19001930,19311960 and 19611990).Mexico experienced the fastest rate of warming of the four subregions,about 0.3C per decade,from 19912023(Figure4).Table 1.2023 temperature ranking(19002023)and anomalies for LAC (C,difference from the 19912020 and 19611990 averages)Subregion/regionTemperature rankingAnomaly(C)1991202019611990Mexico1st warmest0.88 0.811.061.58 1.241.83Central America1st warmest0.85 0.670.971.31 1.161.54Caribbean1st warmest0.71 0.600.791.21 0.931.42South America1st warmest0.81 0.720.971.37 1.171.62LAC1st warmest0.82 0.750.961.39 1.241.62Source:Data are from six datasets used in this assessment:Berkeley Earth,ERA5,GISTEMP,HadCRUT5,JRA-55 and NOAAGlobalTemp.Five datasets were used in the assessment relative to 19611990.For details regarding the datasets,see Temperature in the Datasets and methods section.41900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Year1.00.50.00.51.01.52.0CMexico1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Year1.00.50.00.51.01.52.0CCentral America1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Year1.00.50.00.51.01.52.0CCaribbean1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Year1.00.50.00.51.01.52.0CSouth AmericaHadCRUT5(19002023)NOAAGlobalTemp(19002023)GISTEMP(19002023)Berkeley Earth(19002023)JRA-55(19582023)ERA5(19792023)Figure 3.Annual mean near-surface temperature anomalies,19002023,difference relative to the 19912020 average for four subregions in the LAC region:Mexico,Central America,the Caribbean and South America.Data are from six different datasets,as indicated in the legend:Berkeley Earth,ERA5,GISTEMP,HadCRUT5,JRA-55 and NOAAGlobalTemp.The inset maps show the subregions for which the averages are calculated.0.60.40.20.00.2Trend(C/decade)Trends19011930Trends19311960Trends19611990Trends19912023South AmericaCaribbeanMexicoCentral AmericaFigure 4.Temperature trends for theCaribbean,Mexico,Central America and South America subregions,for30-year periods.The coloured bars show the average trend calculated over each period for the six datasets:Berkeley Earth,ERA5,GISTEMP,HadCRUT5,JRA-55 and NOAAGlobalTemp.Theblack vertical lines indicate the ranges ofthesix estimates.5The year 2023 was the warmest on record in many parts of the region,which is reflected by the high temperature anomalies at the country level.Station data for 2023 relative to 19912020(Figure5a to Figure5d)show that positive anomalies of 1C to 3C were recorded in central Mexico and the Yucatn Peninsula,and negative anomalies of 1C to 2C in parts of northern Mexico and Baja California.Anomalies of 1C to 2C were recorded in Central America(Figure5b).Positive temperature anomalies of 1C to 2C were recorded in many areas across the Caribbean region(Figure5c).In South America,above-normal temperature anomalies of around 2C,up to 3C in some locations,were observed in central and northern Argentina,the central and southern Andes of Peru,Bolivia,northern Chile and Paraguay,the Peruvian and Bolivian Amazon,and the entire tropical zone of South America,some of them reflecting the heatwaves that affected the region(see Heatwaves section).Negative temperature anomalies of 0.5C to 1.0C were observed in the extreme south of Argentina and Chile(Figure5d).20 N10 N010 S20 S30 S40 S50 S90 W 80 W 70 W 60 W 50 W 40 W 30 W85 W 80 W 75 W 70 W 65 W 60 W25 N20 N15 N10 N90 W 85 W 80 W 15 N10 N115 W 110 W 105 W 100 W 95 W 90 W30 N25 N20 N15 N3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0CLatitudeLongitudeMexicoCentral AmericaCaribbeanSouth AmericaLongitudeLatitude(a)(b)(c)(d)Figure 5.In situ mean air temperature(2 m)anomalies for 2023(relative to 19912020)for(a)Mexico,(b)Central America,(c)the Caribbean and(d)South America,in C.The colour scale is shown below the figure.Source:International Research Centre on El Nio(CIIFEN),from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services data6PRECIPITATIONAnnual rainfall anomalies for 2023(relative to the 19912020 climatological standard normal)are shown in Figure6.Rainfall was below normal in most of Mexico(around 20%);some exceptions were Baja California and the Yucatn Peninsula(Figure6a).In most of Central America,rainfall was generally between 20low normal,including in Panama and Honduras.Rainfall in Costa Rica and parts of Guatemala was about 10ove normal(Figure6b).In the Caribbean,above-normal rainfall was recorded in parts of the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba.In the Eastern Caribbean islands,negative rainfall anomalies were predominant(around 20low normal)(Figure6c).In South America(Figure6d),below-normal rainfall was recorded in central Chile(about 40low normal),in the central and south-western Andes of Peru,in the Plurinational State of Bolivia,in the western Amazon(about 40plow normal)and in the rest of tropical Brazil(20low normal).As in 2022,below-normal rainfall was dominant over 20 N10 N010 S20 S30 S40 S50 S90 W 80 W 70 W 60 W 50 W 40 W 30 W85 W 80 W 75 W 70 W 65 W 60 W25 N20 N15 N10 N90 W 85 W 80 W 15 N10 N115 W 110 W 105 W 100 W 95 W 90 W30 N25 N20 N15 N100 80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80 100%LatitudeLongitudeMexicoCentral AmericaCaribbeanSouth AmericaLongitudeLatitude(a)(b)(c)(d)Figure 6.In situ rainfall anomalies for 2023(percentage relative to the 19912020 reference period)in(a)Mexico,(b)Central America,(c)the Caribbean and(d)South America.The colour scale is shown below the figure.Source:CIIFEN,from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services data7theParanLa Plata Basin in Uruguay and northern Argentina,suggesting a late onset and weak South American monsoon.Above-normal precipitation anomalies(40P%)dominated parts of southern and south-eastern Brazil,the northern coast of Peru,central and coastal Colombia and Ecuador,and eastern Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Guyana.Positive precipitation anomalies in south-eastern Brazil were related to heavy precipitation events concentrated over a few days(see Extreme events).Some of the observed rainfall patterns were consistent with the typical rainfall patterns associated with LaNia conditions during the first half of 2023,and with El Nio in the second half(see Major climate drivers),especially intense rainfall in southern Brazil and drought in the western Amazon(see Extreme events).GLACIERSIn the Andes,the greatest number of glaciers are found along the border between Chile and Argentina(approximately 4000).A smaller number are found in the tropical Andes,which constitute more than 95%of the worlds tropical glaciers.6 In the dry Andes,the longest series of data relating to glacier mass reported by the World Glacier Monitoring Service(WGMS)comes from the Echaurren Norte glacier(Figure7),which lost about 31m water equivalent(mw.e.)from 1975 to 2023(0.65mw.e.per year).The largest part of the loss,about 22mw.e.(0.96 mw.e.per year),occurred since 2000.7The OHiggins Glacier in Chile,one of the largest of southern Patagonia,has been experiencing a rapid calving retreat(an important process of mass loss)since 2016.The recession from 2016 to 2023 has been 7km,with 4km occurring from 2019 to 2023.The retreat since 2016 has been 3000m on the northern margin,3700m in the centre and 3500m on the southern margin.8,9Annual mass balance(mm w.e.)1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year4 0002 00002 0004 000Figure 7.Annual mass balance of the Echaurren Norte reference glacier,Andes(Chile),19752022 Source:World Glacier Monitoring Service(WGMS)Fluctuations of Glaciers Database;WGMS FoG database version:2024-01-23,https:/doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2024-01.8SEA LEVELIn 2023,global mean sea level(GMSL)continued to rise.GMSL rise is estimated to be 3.43mm0.3mm per year,averaged over the 31years(19932023)of the satellite altimeter record.The decadal average rate of sea-level rise has more than doubled since the start of the satellite record,increasing from 2.13mm per year between 1993 and 2002 to 4.77mm per year between 2014 and 2023.10The mean sea level has increased at a higher rate than the global mean in the South Atlantic and the subtropical and tropical North Atlantic,and at a lower rate than the global mean in the eastern Pacific over the last three decades.Sea-level rise threatens a large portion of the Latin American and Caribbean population who live in coastal areas,by contaminating freshwater aquifers,eroding shorelines,inundating low-lying areas and increasing the risks of storm surges.11High-precision satellite altimetry data covering the period from January 1993 to May 2023 indicate that during this period,the rates of sea-level change on the Atlantic side of South America were higher than those on the Pacific side(Figure8(right)and Table2).In the South American Pacific zone,the rate of change was 2.43mm0.12mm per year,and along the LatitudeLongitude30 N20 N10 N0120 W 100 W 80 W 60 W CoordinatesCoordinates150 W 120 W 90 W 60 W 30 W 020 N020 S40 S120 W150 W60 SGMSL 3.410.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0(mm/yr)Figure 8.Sea-level trends based on satellite altimetry,in the LAC subregions of Mexico,Central America,the Caribbean(left),and South America(right),over the period from January 1993 to May 2023.The transition from green to yellow corresponds to the3.4mm per year global mean averaged trend.The numbered boxes represent the zones where the rates of area-averaged sea-level change are provided in Table2.Source:Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S)Table 2.Rate of area-averaged sea-level change over the period from January 1993 to May 2023 based on satellite altimetry.Zones are defined in Figure8.SubregionZone number(see Figure8)AreaTrends in rate of sea-level rise(in mmper year)Mexico,Central America and the Caribbean1Central America Pacific2.22 0.272Subtropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico4.23 0.123Tropical North Atlantic3.56 0.10South America1South America tropical North Atlantic 3.68 0.082South Atlantic3.96 0.063South America Pacific2.43 0.129Pacific coast of Mexico and Central America,it was 2.22mm0.27mm per year,both lower than the global average.Along the Atlantic coast of South America,south of the equator,the rate of change from January 1993 to July 2023,namely 3.96mm0.06mm per year,was higher than the global average.A comparable rate was also observed in the subtropical North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico(4.23mm0.12mm per year).In the tropical North Atlantic,around Central America and the southern Caribbean,the rate was 3.56mm0.10mm per year during this period(Figure8(left)and Table2).The Guna Yala,an archipelago of over 300 islands off the north-east coast of Panama,are home to the Guna people,anIndigenous community.The islands are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts,especially sea-level rise.Credit:Silvia Markli(United States of America)10The Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)of IPCC Working GroupI12 states that global warming is altering the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events,leading to or exacerbating other high-impact events such as flooding,landslides,wildfires and avalanches.The wider socioeconomic risks and impacts associated with these events are described in the Climate-related impacts and risks section.The IPCC AR6 also states that for Central and South America,the observed trends indicate a likely increase in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes,and a likely decrease in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes,as well as an increase in mean and heavy precipitation in south-eastern South America.The following sections only highlight the most extreme weather-and climate-related events of2023;details on all reported extreme weather-and climate-related events can be found in an interactive online map.TROPICAL CYCLONESThe 2023 Atlantic hurricane season had an above-average number of storms,ending with 20named storms(compared to an average of 14named storms for 19912020).13 El Nio usually favours low hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin due to the increased vertical wind shear mainly in the western portion of the main development region,where most tropical storms develop.However,that was not the case in 2023,due to several inter-related conditions including the anomalously warm SSTs in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.14 Some storms affected land areas in the LAC region(Table3),including two tropical storms and two major hurricanes.In the eastern Pacific,the hurricane season was slightly more active than normal,with 17named storms(compared to an average of 15named storms for 19912020).15 Six of these storms Extreme eventsTable 3.Summary of the 2023 hurricane season in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins.The table includes only tropical storms,hurricanes and major hurricanes that most affected land areas in the LAC region(in chronological order).Some ofthese also had significant impacts outside the LAC region.Major hurricanes are identified with the acronym MH.Hurricane or tropical stormPeriodAffected areasTropical Storm Bret1924 JuneBarbados,Dominica,Saint Vincent andthe Grenadines,and Saint LuciaHurricane Hilary(MH)1621 AugustBaja California(Mexico)Hurricane Franklin(MH)20 August1 SeptemberDominican Republic and parts of theGreater Antilles,Bermuda HispaniolaHurricane Idalia(MH)2631 August Yucatn Peninsula(Mexico),Cayman Islands,western CubaTropical Storm Philippe23 September6 October BarbudaHurricane Lidia(MH)0311 OctoberJalisco(Mexico)Hurricane Norma(MH)1723 OctoberSouth Baja California(Mexico)Hurricane Otis(MH)2225 OctoberAcapulco(Mexico)Source:Based on data from NOAA/National Hurricane Center(NHC):https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/tws_atl_latest.gif and https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/tws_pac_latest.gif,last accessed on 11January 202411affected Mexico,namely four major hurricanes(Hilary,Norma,Lidia and Otis),one hurricane(Beatriz)and one tropical storm(Max).Major Hurricanes Lidia and Otis rapidly intensified in the hours leading up to their landfall.Otis was the strongest hurricane to make landfall on Mexicos west coast,and Lidia was the fourth strongest.Lidia made landfall in the state of Jalisco,on 10October,with sustained winds of 220km/h(120 knots).Otis reached hurricane intensity at 1200UTC on 24October,and within 15hours had intensified to a Category5system.Otis made landfall near Acapulco(Mexico)on 25October,with maximum sustained winds estimated to be 260km/h(140 knots).This is the first time on record(since the NHC assumed operational forecast responsibility for the basin in 1988)that the eastern Pacific had a hurricane at Category5 through landfall.16 Otis caused at least 48deaths and an estimated 12billion US dollars(USD)of damage.17 In Acapulco,a city that depends heavily on tourism,Otis damaged 80%of the hotel infrastructure and 96%of businesses(Figure9).18 Hurricane Idalia impacted Cuba on 28August with tropical storm-force winds,damaging agriculture plantations.Hurricane Idalia crossed the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near Keaton Beach,Florida,around 1145UTC on 29August,leading to significant impacts in portions of the south-eastern United States.19Tropical Storm Franklin(later Major Hurricane Franklin)made landfall in the Dominican Republic on 23August,bringing flooding and mudslides to the island.Rain in Santo Domingo exceeded 330mm.In the Dominican Republic,at least 749homes were damaged by the storm.Two people were killed,and one other was reported missing.More than 1.6million people were left without water the following day.BuiltUp GradingDamagedDestroyedPossibly damagedAcapulcoHurricane Otis in Acapulco,Mexico750 mFigure 9.Buildings damaged and destroyed by Hurricane Otis,on 25 October 2023,in Acapulco,Mexico:situation as of 26 October at 1713 UTCSource:European Union,Copernicus Emergency Management Service(CEMS)Rapid Mapping,activation code#EMSR7012HEAVY PRECIPITATION,FLOODS AND LANDSLIDESIn Latin America and the Caribbean,heavy rainfall events and subsequent flooding and landslide episodes were reported in2023.In this region,ElNio is typically associated with above-normal rainfall in southern Brazil,southern Argentina,central Chile,eastern Plurinational State of Bolivia and along the coast of Peru and Ecuador.Flash floods in the Mexican state of Jalisco on 25September resulted in eightfatalities after asudden rise of a river in Autln de Navarro.Another notable event took place on 3November,when the Aguadulcita and Tancochapa Rivers in Veracruz overflowed due to a combination of record-breaking precipitation(400mm in San Jos del Carmen,Veracruz,on 1November)and strong winds.20 A tropical disturbance moved across the Caribbean on 17November,bringing torrential rainfall to Jamaica,Haiti and the Dominican Republic,with at least 21people losing their lives in the Dominican Republic.Arroyo Hondo Viejo(Dominican Republic)recorded a daily rainfall amount of 431.0mm on 18November,the highest on record in the country.Comparable amounts were also recorded in the Renacimiento neighbourhood in Santo Domingo(426.0mm),and in Paraiso in Barahona Province(394.7mm).21In central Chile,significant rainfall totals were recorded from 1823 August.The General Freire station in Curic(Maule Region)recorded 150.2mm in 24hours,the highest amount since 1950.In Brazil,in the coastal areas of the state of So Paulo,at least 65people lost their lives after torrential rain caused floods and landslides in the city of So Sebastio;on 1819February,683mm of rain fell in 15hours in the city(Figure10).In the state of Acre in the Brazilian Amazon,heavy rain and the overflowing of the Acre River flooded vast areas of Rio Branco on 23March.The city recorded 124.4mm of rainfall in 24hours.22 On 23March,the Acre River level at Rio Branco jumped from around 8m to 15.8m in 24hours(flood level is 14m).In the Plurinational State of Bolivia,on 27March,the Acre River stood at 12.13m above normal.The Santa Cruz Department reported rising levels 11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 FebDays0100 200300400500600Rainfall(mm)February mean total:Bertioga 320.0 mmGuaruj 215.8 mmSo Sebastio 270.0 mmFigure 10.Daily variability of rainfall between 11 and 28 February for So Sebastio(blue bars),Bertioga(green bars)and Guaruj(red bars)in the northern coastal state of So Paulo(Brazil)(each city has several stations,represented by different bars for each day).Units in mm/day.The 20132023 monthly mean for the three locations is provided in the upper right“February mean total”.Source:Marengo,J.A;Cunha,A.P.;Seluchi,M.E.etal.Heavy Rains and Hydrogeological Disasters on February 18th19th,2023,in the City of So Sebastio,So Paulo,Brazil:From Meteorological Causes to Early Warnings.Natural Hazards 2024.https:/doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06558-5.13of the Pirai and Rio Grande Rivers from around 20March and two persons died in the Pirai River.In Brazil,heavy rainfall on 21April led to flooding and landslides in south Baha,forcing thousands to leave their homes.As much as 92.9mm of rain fell in Santa Cruz Cabrlia in the 24hours leading up to 22April.The following day,the city of Belmonte recorded 216.0mm,and Porto Seguro 87.9mm.The state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil was affected by intense rain events in 2023.In one of these events the torrential rain,brought by an extra-tropical cyclone,triggered flooding and landslides on 16June.In total,49municipalities in the state were affected by heavy rainfall and strong winds.As much as 300mm of rain fell in 24hours in Maquin.On 4September,heavy rainfall and flooding led to at least 48fatalities,20978 people displaced and 4904 homeless.It also caused widespread damage in the state,where several stations reported more than 100mm of rain in 24hours,leading to a rise of 12m in the level of the Taquari River on 67September.23 Heavy rain continued to affect the state throughout September and early October.On 10October,136out of the 295municipalities in Santa Catarina were affected by the rains and floods,89of which declared a state of emergency.In late October,intense rain in Foz do Iguau,Paran(Brazil)disrupted the city.The station near the airport recorded approximately 239mm over three days(2729October).24 Iguau Falls had a flow of 24200m3/s on 30October.According to the Iguau National Park administration,this is the highest value recorded in recent years.Usually,the flow of the Falls ranges from 500m3/s to 1000m3/s.25 In Peru,at least eight people lost their lives in seven departments after heavy rain and flooding associated with Cyclone Yaku,starting on 8March.In Cajamarquilla,a new record daily rainfall amount of 57.4mm was observed on 10March.Six fatalities were reported in the department of Piura and over 200people were displaced.In Paraguay,heavy rain led to flooding in at least four departments from 25February.Thousands of families were affected by floods in Concepcin,where about 200mm of rain were measured between 25and26February.26 In Argentina,in western Patagonia,rainfall events led to accumulations ranging from around 100to800mm during July.The south-eastern part of the province of Buenos Aires was affected by abundant and intense rains between 2and4July;the city of Mar del Plata accumulated 120mm throughout the period.On 11July,Gualeguaych,in the province of Entre Ros,recorded 90mm,a new 24-hour rainfall record for that location.The intense rain raised the level of the Uruguay River,and ferry crossings between Brazil and Argentina were suspended because the safe level was exceeded.Crossings between Brazil and Argentina at the Porto Xavier international port were also suspended due to the rise in the Uruguay River.On 1617December,a severe storm affected the city of Baha Blanca,and later that night the same storm arrived in Buenos Aires,producing strong wind gusts(more than 150km/h).These gusts were destructive,causing hundreds of trees to fall and massive power outages.DROUGHTSDrought affected several countries in the LAC region during 2023.LaNia-related impacts during the first quarter of 2023,and ElNio in the second half of the year,contributed toprecipitation deficits,above-average temperatures and recurrent heatwaves,leading tosevere droughts in various countries in the region.The Integrated Drought Index(IDI),which combines a 14meteorological-based drought index and a remote sensing-based index,was used to provide an integrated assessment of drought conditions in LAC.Figure11 shows the intensity of the drought by the end of November according to the IDI.Areas affected by severe drought include most of Mexico,central Chile,the Altiplano,western and eastern Amazon,the central and southern Andes,Panama,Nicaragua,Guatemala,El Salvador,central Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela,and the Guianas;areas affected by moderate drought include Cuba,Dominican Republic and Haiti.In Costa Rica,severe drought conditions were detected in the country as reported by the national weather service.In Mexico,by the end of September,almost 60%of the territory,mostly in central and north-west Mexico,was affected by severe and extreme drought.27 In some states,such as Durango,LatitudeLongitudeMexicoCentral AmericaCaribbeanSouth AmericaLongitudeLatitude(a)(b)(c)(d)110 W 100 W 90 W30 N20 N10 N90 W 80 W 10 N90 W 80 W 70 W 60 W30 N20 N10 N10 N010 S20 S30 S40 S50 S80 W 70 W 60 W 50 W 40 W 30 WJanuary November 2023Exceptional droughtExtreme DroughtSevere DroughtModerate DroughtFigure 11.IDI for JanuaryNovember 2023 in Mexico,Central America,the Caribbean and South AmericaSource:Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),calculated from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data(CHIRPS)and Vegetation Health Index data from the Center for Satellite Applications and Research(STAR/NOAA).The calculation was based on Cunha,A.P.M.A.;Zeri,M.;Deusdar Leal,K.etal.Extreme Drought Events over Brazil from 2011 to 2019.Atmosphere 2019,10(11),642.https:/doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110642.15San Luis Potos,Queretaro and Hidalgo,exceptional drought(the highest of the five drought intensity categories)was detected during the second half of the year.In Mexico,2023 was the driest year on record(records began in 1941).28 By the end of December,drought conditions affected 76%of the country,including extreme drought across much of central and north Mexico.Rainfall in 2023 was below average through most of Central America.Low water levels restricted traffic in the Panama Canal from August onwards.Drought became increasingly widespread in the northern half of South America as the year progressed.JuneSeptember rainfall was well below average in much of the Amazon Basin,and rivers fell to well below-average levels.Eight Brazilian states recorded their lowest July to September rainfall in over 40years,with precipitation totals of around 100 to 300mm/month below normal.29 According to the Port of Manaus authorities,the level of the Negro River fell to 12.70m at Manaus(Brazil)on 26October(Figure12),the lowest on record(observations started in 1902).30 Together with the lack of rainfall in the region,a warmer austral winter and spring were observed in the south-western region of the Amazon,due to a dome of hot and dry air.Sixheatwaves affected the region between August and December.In an area neighbouring Manaus,thousands of fish were found floating dead on the surface of Piranha Lake by the end of September.In Tef Lake,500km west of Manaus,more than 150botos cor-de-rosa(anAmazon River dolphin)were found dead in late September,with the potential cause related to the excessive heat,as the water temperature reached a record high 39.1C on 28September.Other main rivers in the Amazon,including the Solimes,Purus,Acre andBranco,suffered extreme drops in their levels in some regions,and dried up completely in others.The level of the Madeira River in Porto Velho(Brazil)was the lowest observed in 56years of measurements(15m on 121416182022242628301900192019401960198020002020Negro River water level at Manaus(m)1909192319531971197519761989199919942009201220132014201520177201920212022190619361916192619091948195019581963201020051998199519972023FloodsDroughts29.0 mYear15.8 mFigure 12.Maximum(blue lines)and minimum(red lines)levels of the Negro River at the Port of Manaus,1902 to November 2023.Blue and red numbers indicate record floods and droughts,respectively.Orange lines represent the higher(29.0m)and lower(15.8m)thresholds to define floods and droughts,respectively.Values are in metres.Source:J.Schongart,National Institute for Amazonian Research(INPA),Brazil1615October).31 In the Peruvian Amazon,the flows and levels recorded on the Amazon,Maran,Huallaga and Ucayal Rivers were average to much lower than average.The discharge of the Huallaga River at Tingo Mara(Peru)was 45low normal in October.32 In the Plurinational State of Bolivia,the Mamor,Guapor and Madeira Rivers remained very low due to deficient rainfallfrom July 2022 to June 2023.33In the northern and central Bolivian Altiplano,the extreme drought that started in AugustSeptember 2022 peaked in January 2023,reducing the yield of potatoes by more than 50%and of some other Andean crops,thus causing very heavy economic losses for many thousands of farmers.According to the meteorological service of the Plurinational State of Bolivia,the lack of water in the country has affected more than 487 000families.La Paz,Cochabamba,Santa Cruz,Oruro,Chuquisaca,Potos and Tarija were the most affected departments.By September,the drought in the Altiplano and Valles regions had accelerated the melting of several Andean glaciers,triggering a water crisis in the country.34In Peru,drought prevailed over the Andean regions northern and southern sections.The level of Lake Titicaca was very low in JanuaryApril(132cm below average),lower than in the historical dry period of 19821983.This exceptionally low level persisted until October,in both Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia,and slightly recovered thereafter.Due to the influence of ElNio,the Puno region has experienced the driest conditions of the last 60years.The drought affected the population,crops,harvest and regional economy.The lack of water began in 2022,but further intensified with ElNio.It is estimated that the water deficit has generated agricultural losses in Puno of 80%in potato and sweet potato production,and 90%in Andean grains production.35Long-term drought continued in subtropical South America.During the first half of the year,the effects of La Nia were still visible;the cascading impacts from lack of water in the LaPlata Basin hit Uruguay,northern Argentina and southern Brazil the hardest.Rainfall from January to August was 20%to 50low average over much of northern and central Argentina,with some regions experiencing their fourth successive year of significantly below-average rainfall.There were major crop losses in Argentina,with wheat production in 20222023 more than 30low the five-year average.In Uruguay,the summer of 2023 was the driest of the last 42years on record.Water storage reached critically low levels affecting the quality of potable water for over 60%of the population,including in major centres such as Montevideo.Earlier in June,Uruguays government declared a water emergency,exempting taxes on bottled water and ordering the construction of a new reservoir.36 These conditions threatened the economy and ecosystems in South America.37 Through mid-October in major food-producing areas in eastern Argentina and southern Brazil,the occurrence of rainfall improved conditions but did not completely bring an end to the drought in the area.38In Chile,prolonged dry conditions were partially interrupted by two episodes of intense precipitation in June and August 2023.Some frontal systems reached the southern part of Chile.However,the central region received lower-than-average rainfall.Central Chile had been experiencing warm and dry conditions for at least a decade,but events in 2023 are a good reminder of climate variability,and heavy rains can occur even during a prolonged drought and not be sufficient to end it.39Normal to below-normal conditions were seen throughout the eastern Caribbean over the twelve-month period(according to the Standardized Precipitation Index,JanuaryDecember 2023).Dominica and Saint Croix were predominantly moderately dry;Guadeloupe,Antigua and Saint Kitts were severely to extremely dry.The southern part of Puerto Rico was severely dry.In Cuba,extremely dry conditions for the 12-month period were observed in west-central areas.4017HEATWAVES AND WILDFIRESExtreme heat was recorded in South America on numerous occasions during the year,leading to health impacts,including excess mortality,and exacerbating drought conditions and wildfires.The heatwave in Argentina from 28February to 20March was an extraordinarily late extreme heat phenomenon,which mainly affected the central zone of the country,but also affected northern and coastal zones.The heatwave was the most extensive experienced in Argentina since the 2013 heatwave,affecting the provinces of Buenos Aires,SantaFe,Cordoba,and all the northern provinces,with record temperatures in multiple locations.The high temperatures were exceptional for March,when there is usually a drop in temperature corresponding to the beginning of the austral autumn.In Chile,wildfires in the Biobo,uble and LaAraucana regions were described as among the worst in years.The government issued emergency declarations for affected areas to help speed up relief efforts.41Many intense heatwaves affected central South America at the end of the austral winter and in the spring,from August to December.During the second half of August,temperatures in parts of Brazil exceeded 41C as South America was hit by scorching weather in the middle of the winter and near-all-time high temperatures were recorded.In Cuiab,in central-western Brazil,the temperature reached 41.8C on 20August.The heatwave also hit Rio de Janeiro and So Paulo,Brazils two most populous cities.In Rio de Janeiro,the temperature reached 38.7C on 22August.42 Many locations in Argentina also saw highs of 30C to 35C.The temperature in Buenos Aires set a daily record for the start of August,with 30.1C,which was more than 9C above the previous daily record.43Countries including Brazil,Peru,the Plurinational State of Bolivia,Paraguay and Argentina all recorded their highest September temperatures.This was due to a heat dome,which occurs when high pressure stays over an area and remains there,trapping hot and dry air for a prolonged period.Record high temperatures were set in French Guiana,with 38.8C inSaint-Laurent,and in Brazil,with 38.6C in Belo Horizonte,on 25 September.The heatwave Amazon forest fireCredit:SPmemory,iStock18covered most of the Brazil central region,including the western Amazon,where the combination of higher temperature and dry conditions has contributed to one of the worst springtime droughts and some of the lowest river levels this century(see section on Droughts).In Peru,the temperature in Tingo de Ponaza reached 41.4C on 27September.This heatwave was also felt in Bolivia which recorded its all-time highest September temperature of 40.3C in Magdalena on 25September.In Argentina,on 16October,temperatures reached 45.0C in Las Lomitas,43.8C in Resistencia,43.2C in Corrientes and 44.1C in Formosa,more than 10C above the 19912020 monthly normal of 29.0C.In western Paraguay,in the period from 7to 13November,the temperature reached 44.5C in Mariscal Estigarribia and 42.0C in Puerto Casado(the average monthly maximum is 35.1C and 33.4C,respectively).44 This same heatwave affected almost all of Brazil,except the southern region,with record temperatures across the country.About 120stations recorded their highest maximum temperatures on 12November.The highest maximum was recorded in Rio de Janeiro,which registered 40.4C,followed by Cuiab with 39.6C and Teresina with 38.9C.So Paulo had the highest maximum in the last nine years,with 37.1C on 12November.According to the Brazilian meteorological service(INMET),Porto Murtinho recorded a maximum of 42.3C on 11November,and the recorded 44.8C in Araua(in the state of Minas Gerais)on 19November was the highest temperature ever recorded in Brazil.Large wildfires burned across the heat-affected regions in Paraguay,Brazil and the Plurinational State of Bolivia.45 In the Amazon,22061 fire outbreaks were recorded in October,the worst record for the month since 2008,46 resulting in heavy smoke impacting the entire population of Manaus(over 2million people).47The boreal summer of 2023 was exceptional for extreme heat over Mexico.Temperatures surpassing 45C were recorded in many stations and the highest temperature,51.4C,occurred on 29August,in Mexicali,in the state of Baja California.48 According to the Ministry of Health,the number of cases of health impacts related to extreme heat in 2023 doubled those of 2022.From 19March to 7October there were 4306 cases of heatstroke,dehydration and burns associated with extreme heat,and 421deaths.49 The most affected states were Nuevo Leon,Tamaulipas,Veracruz,Sonora and 12others.COLD WAVES AND SNOWIn Argentina,a mass of cold air of polar origin affected the country causing intense cold from the middle of July.On the morning of 17July,the temperature reached 22.5C in Perito Moreno,in southern Patagonia,Argentina.From 19to22August,heavy snowfall across the central Andes produced between 3m and 5m of snow accumulation in the south of Mendoza Province.The nearest city,Malarge,recorded 60cm of snowfall,breaking its historical record.On 18June,a wave of snow,ice and heavy rain hit the department of Santa Cruz,the Plurinational State of Bolivias most significant agricultural zone,causing widespread damage to crops and leading to the death of cattle.The cold front extended beyond Santa Cruz,with record-breaking temperatures of 9C in the north of the country.Notably,temperatures also took a steep dive in the southern wine-producing department of Tarija,a critical area for the countrys winegrowing industry.5019Climate-related impacts in the LAC region are associated not only with hazardous events,but also with a complex scenario of increased exposure and vulnerability.51 The presence of ElNio in the second half of 2023 contributed to the climate-driven impacts(see also Extreme events section).As in previous years,added to this complex scenario are the high and rising food prices,increasing poverty in the context of the post COVID-19 period,high levels of income inequality,and increasing levels of hunger,food insecurity and obesity.52,53AFFECTED POPULATION AND DAMAGESThe present section complements the Extreme events section.Based on information from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters(CRED)Emergency Events Database(EM-DAT),54 in 2023,67meteorological,hydrological and climate-related hazards were reported in the Latin America and the Caribbean region.Of these 67hazards,77%were storm-and flood-related events and accounted for 69%of the 909fatalities documented in this database(Figure13).The estimated USD21billion of economic damage reported to EMDAT was mainly due to storms(66%)(including the USD12billion of damages associated with Hurricane Otis),floods(16%)and droughts(14%).The actual amount of damage related to the impacts of extreme events is likely to be worse because of under-reporting and because data on impacts are not available for some countries.AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITYDisasters and climate change,along with socioeconomic shocks,are the main drivers of acute food insecurity in the region,55 such that in 2023,13.8million people were reported to be in a situation of acute food crisis(Integrated Food Security Phase Classification(IPC)phase3 or above),especially in Central America and the Caribbean.56 Extreme weather and climate events linked to climate change impact all pillars of food security(availability,access,utilization and stability).57 Impacts on agricultural production reduce the availability of food and income,thereby restricting access to food and also leading to a loss of dietary diversity.Today in Latin America and the Caribbean,disasters represent a greater caloric loss than in other regions.58 Finally,in the face of these shocks,consumers may resort to overstocking,thereby destabilizing food markets.For this reason,the impacts on agriculture continue tohave Climate-related impacts andrisks67 reported case909 deaths11 million people afectedUSD 21 billion of economic damageFlood55%Storm 22%Drought9%Wildfire6%Landslide(wet)8%Flood55%Wildfire4%Landslide(wet)27%Storm 14%Flood53%Storm 15%Drought31%Landslide(wet)1%Flood16%Storm 66%Drought14%Wildfire4%Figure 13.Weather-,climate-and water-related disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2023.Note:Impact numbers for some disaster occurrences may be lacking due to data unavailability.Source:CRED EM-DAT,accessed 21 February 2024 20impacts on food and nutritional security,as explicitly reported in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Colombia in 2023.In other countries in the region,such as in Haiti,violence and governance problems,together with impacts of extreme weather and climate events,are cumulative factors that generate and exacerbate food crises.Climate change intensifies weather-related impacts such as floods,storms,droughts and extreme temperatures,significantly impacting agriculture59 and affecting to a greater extent small and medium-sized farms,women and indigenous communities.60 ElNio conditions during the second half of 2023 contributed to the prolonged droughts in the Central American Dry Corridor and northern South America,and to intense rainfall and flooding along the coasts of Ecuador and Peru,leading to negative impacts on agriculture.Such impacts exacerbated food insecurity,especially in communities reliant on agriculture for their livelihoods,and will likely be felt in 2024 and beyond.61According to the Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring(GEOGLAM)Crop Monitor,crop conditions over the main growing areas are assessed based on a combination of inputs,including remotely sensed data,ground observations,field reports,and national and regional experts.Regions that were in conditions other than favourable are labelled on Figure14 with a symbol representing the crop(s)affected.At the end of October,conditions for wheat,maize,rice and soybeans remained mixed.Maize prospects improved in parts of the northern hemisphere as the harvesting of crops wrapped up,while the expanding dryness in Argentina was impacting planting.62 The latest available data indicates that in 2023,record maize production in Brazil compensated for below-average harvests due to prolonged dry spells elsewhere in South America,especially in Argentina where drought conditions were expected to result in a 15crease in cereal production compared with the five-year average.ExceptionalFavourableWatchPoorFailureOut-of-seasonNo dataConditions:Countries:Crops:Crop monitor countiesNon-crop monitor countiesWheatMaizeRiceSoybean SorghumMilletTefBeansFigure 14.Synthesis map from the Crop Monitor for Agricultural Market Information System(AMIS)report showing crop conditions as of 28 October 2023Source:https:/ Brazil,both excess rain and drought,linked to ElNio,set back the soybean planting.The increase in rainfall in southern Brazil should help the 2023/2024 soybean productivity levels to recover and,therefore,avoid greater losses in second-crop corn as well.Wheat production in the state of Paran fell by 889 000 metric tonnes in relation to potential,and a 30%loss is expected in its wheat harvest,while authorities in the state of Rio Grande doSul reported a delay in soybean planting.Between 14and 20November,the excess moisture in the soil hampered operations to complete soybean planting in south-western Paran.The climate-related impacts favoured by the LaNia event in the 2022/2023 harvest and by ElNio in the following cycle,generated losses of USD550million for agriculture in the state of Paran.The state of Santa Catarina already estimates a loss of USD500million in agriculture.Theend of the austral winter crop cyclewheat,barley and oatssaw a significant reduction in production quantity and quality.63 As a result of the hail,rain and strong winds that hit Rio Grande do Sul,there were losses related to infrastructure,primary production,livestock and pastures,with 198municipalities affected and an emergency declared in 115of them.The main grain crops affected were wheat,soybean,corn,corn silage and rice.Losses in production areas reached 120 600hectares,with an estimated loss of more than 186000 metric tonnes.Ecuador experienced an increase in precipitation linked to ElNio Costero(coastal),affecting the main agricultural cycles.64 Farmers in the states of Gurico and Apure,in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela,face the prospect of a food crisis until May 2024,attributed to the intensification of dry periods linked to ElNio and a lack of water.65 Uruguay suffered a serious drought until mid-2023,affecting crops,harvests and dairy production.66 In Argentina,severe floods affected 5million heads of livestock.67ElNio conditions(increase of sea temperature)also impacted fisheries,68 reducing tuna catches in Ecuador by 30%,69 and significantly affecting anchoveta fishing in Peru,both key fishing resources in terms of volume.70 In Colombia,it is estimated that 8million people are susceptible to reduced food and nutritional security(FNS)due to ElNio.71In Mexico,a late onset of the rainy season in addition to progressively increasing extreme drought in the vast majority of the territory,impacted rain-fed agriculture.The boreal sum-merspring agricultural cycle reported an agricultural performance of nearly 60%for basic grains.72 Hurricane Otis further aggravated some of the impacts.73 Overall,harvesting of the main cereal production season(primera)was mostly finalized in September under poor conditions in Central America and the Caribbean.In Central America,the rainfall deficit and high temperatures linked to El Nio delayed rainstorms and affected basic grain crops.74 In Guatemala,this shock affected the agricultural seasons.75 In El Salvador,Honduras and Nicaragua the delay in the harvest at the end of the year was expected to reduce the income of subsistence homes and commercial production by at least 25%.76 In December 2023,accumulated losses reportedly continued to hamper the production of the frijol bean throughout Nicaragua and Guatemala.77 In the Caribbean,in Haiti,78%of agricultural producers reported that lack of water and/or precipitation was the main difficulty in producing,and 44%reported a decrease in harvesting.The United States Department of Agriculture(USDA)anticipates that the irregular rains and high temperatures of 2023 will reduce corn and rice production by 4%5%,affecting the seed reserves of small farmers,thus reducing the crop for the boreal spring season of 2024.78 InAugust,Hurricane Idalia damaged plantations of plane trees,yuca and sweet potato(camote)in Cuba.At the end of November,rains and floods in the Dominican Republic affected more than 7 000 agricultural producers,with damage estimated at more than USD460million.79 22HEALTHThe LAC region faces increased health risks due to population exposure to heatwaves,wildfire smoke,sand dust and aeroallergens leading to cardiovascular and respiratory problems,as well as rising food insecurity and malnutrition.These health risks are projected to increase the disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)by 10%by 2050.80 In the 20132022 period,inLatinAmerica,people older than 65 years experienced an average of 271%more days of heatwave per year than in 19862005.This was associated with an increase in heat-related mortality of 140%from 20002009 to 20132022.81 In Latin America and the Caribbean,anestimated 36695(2006459526)annual heat-related excess deaths occurred between 2000 and 2019.82 Furthermore,there are indirect impacts,as heatwaves affect key infrastructure such as water and energy systems,further affecting livelihoods,particularly in marginalized areas.Air pollution,often worsened by climate change,is a serious health threat,with over 150million people in the LAC region living in areas exceeding World Health Organization(WHO)air quality guidelines.In 2020,a rise in premature deaths linked to ambient PM2.5,exacerbated by increasing wildfires and ozone levels,was reported in South America.83 In addition to the direct health impacts,changing rainfall patterns and warming temperatures due to climate change are altering the geographic distribution of diseases transmitted by water,air and soil.In some cases,the geographic range has expanded into areas of higher elevation in the tropical Andes and into southern temperate latitudes,in the southern cone of South America.For example,in 2023 the first cases of chikungunya were reported in Uruguay,and Chile issued alerts due to the expanded presence of the Aedes aegypti mosquito vector that transmits arboviruses.84,85 In 2019,over 3million cases of dengue were reported in the Americas,the highest number on record.However,this number was already exceeded in the first 7months of 2023,setting a new record for the Americas.86Alter do Chao beach along the dry Tapajos River,impacted by the 2023 drought in the AmazonCredit:Tarcisio Schnaider(Brazil)23STRENGTHENING CLIMATEHEALTH COOPERATIONThe integration of climate and health sciences and services is vital in order to address growing health risks from climate extremes,climate variability and change,ecosystem change and the deepening social inequalities that increase vulnerability.87 Effective climate-informed early warning systems(EWSs)go beyond infrastructure;they demand a multifaceted health sector response.To optimize climate services for public health,enhancements in data infrastructure and cooperation between health,climate services and other key sectors are essential,as is training across the climate and health sectors.An EWS should activate a range of health sector responses,including healthcare worker training,capacity enhancement of health systems to mobilize first responders,and strengthening of epidemiological and entomological teams if needed.It should also increase lab analysis capacity,enhance risk communication and ensure adequate infrastructure to support these actions.This holistic approach not only bolsters public health resilience but also lays the groundwork for health and climate change observatories.An example of a relevant joint initiative by the World Health Organization(WHO)and WMO is the ClimaHealth platform,88 whose goal is to facilitate access to actionable knowledge in order to protect populations from the health risks of climate change and other environmental hazards,and to serve as a technical reference point for users of interdisciplinary health,environmental and climate science.At the United Nations 2023 Climate Change Conference,COP28,124countries,including 17from the LAC region,endorsed a Declaration on Climate and Health,advocating for health benefits through substantial greenhouse gas reductions.This includes promoting just transitions,cleaner air,active lifestyles and sustainable diets.89 These actions include shared goals of strengthening climatehealth information services,surveillance,early warning and response Enhancing climate resilience and adaptation policies forhealthSan Juan River in Matanzas,CubaCredit:Anabel del rio Viamonte(Cuba)24systems,and cultivating a climate-ready health workforce.Emphasizing intersectoral cooperation and governance,the commitments in the Declaration on Climate and Health extend across various levels to deliver comprehensive solutions.Additionally,there is a dedicated effort towards climate-resilient health systems,ensuring their adaptability to evolving challenges.In the Americas,strides are being made to increase health sector resilience to climate change.Twelve of thirty-five countries are developing Health National Adaptation Plans(HNAPs),while nine have completed and six are developing Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments(V&As).While South American countries acknowledge the health impacts of climate change in their plans,enhancing public health protection requires maximizing climate policy benefits and including health-related issues across all relevant sectors.90 The collaborative efforts in developing HNAPs and V&As are promising signs of tackling climate challenges.However,there is still a significant gap in effective adaptation responses,particularly for vulnerable populations,and very limited climate financing focused on health sector adaptation.91 The Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)submitted by LAC countries have placed significant emphasis on adaptation.The submitted NDCs have identified water,agriculture and health as priority areas of focus with regard to adaptation.In terms of health,9(30%)of the 30reviewed NDCs have identified vector-borne diseases as one of the climate health risk areas of concern in the region.This is followed by injury and mortality from extreme weather events and heat-related illnesses(Figure15).Despite some NDCs now including health aspects,overall progress is slow and the health sector is still lagging in climate change adaptation.920%3%3%3%7 0%Mental and psychosocial healthAir-borne and respiratory illnessesNoncommunicable diseasesZoonosesImpacts on health care facilitiesMalnutrition and food-borne diseasesHeat-related illnessInjury and mortality from extreme weather eventsVector-borne diseasesWaterborne diseases and other water-related health impactsFigure 15.Percentage of WMO Members from the LAC region that refer to climate-sensitive health risks or outcomes.Note:Percentages in the chart are based on the 30 Members whose NDCs were reviewed.Source:Readapted by WMO,based on data in:World Health Organization(WHO).2023 WHO Review of Health in Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-term Strategies:Health at the Heart of the Paris Agreement;WHO:Geneva,2023.https:/iris.who.int/handle/10665/372276.25WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICES CAPACITIESClimate services are the provision and use of climate data,information and knowledge to assist decision-making.Climate services require appropriate engagement between the recipient of the service and its provider,along with an effective access mechanism to enable timely action.93 Based on the available data from 32WMO Members from the LAC region,16(50%)Members are currently providing climate services at essential/full capacities,as illustrated in Figure16.This finding underscores the commitment and capabilities within the region to provide climate services.Specifically,some climate services for health may be developed in a form of partnership,defined as the iterative process of collaboration between relevant transdisciplinary partners to identify,generate and build capacity to develop,deliver and use relevant and reliable climate knowledge to enhance decision-making and action in the health sector.Examples of climate products and services may include monitoring and warning systems for population exposure to wildfire smoke or early warning systems for extreme temperatures.94 The ClimaHealth platform also includes the countries climate services profile pages and reference to WMO Health Focal Points.The provision of data services for the health sector is provided by 63%of WMO Members from the LAC region,however only less than half of the Members are providing climate projections Figure 16.Overview of generalized climate services capacities(not sector specific).The information in the figure represents 32 WMO Members whose data have been validated by internationally certified auditors.Basic6(19)%Essential9(28%)Full7(22%)No data8(25%)Advanced1(3%)Less than basic1(3%)26and tailored products.It is pertinent to note that most of the services provided are still not sector tailored,as only 38%of Members in the region indicated providing tailored products for the health sector(Figure17).The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs)self-reported level of service provision to the health sector was evaluated on a scale of 16,with 1corresponding to“initial engagement”and6to“full engagement”.This scale was used to assess the level of socioeconomic benefits achieved and documented.The average score was reported to be 3.1out of 6 for the region,which suggests that most of the engagement is at the initial stage(13),where definition of needs is prioritized,rather than at the stage of providing tailored products and services(46).The 2021 Pan American Health Organization(PAHO)survey shows advancements in Latin America,with 17countries integrating meteorological data into health surveillance,focusing on diseases and extreme weather impacts.95 This reflects a move towards stronger public health strategies amid climate issues.Moreover,there has been progress in setting up a National Framework for Climate Services96(NFCS)in various Member countries in the region,as a mechanism to promote coordination,governance and collaboration to improve the development,delivery and use of climate services at the country level,to support decision-making.Recent data indicate that 16Member countries in the region are in the process of establishing their respective NFCS.Weather services are instrumental to safeguarding public health by providing timely and accurate information,thereby empowering both communities and individuals to effectively prepare for and respond to weather-related risks within a short timescale of less than 30days.The crucial role of weather services lies in their ability to offer insights into upcoming weather conditions,which is vital for planning and mitigating the potential impacts on health and safety.However,despite their significance,the available data reveal a notable gap in the level of services provided by NMHSs.Only 6%of the WMO Members from the LAC region provide“full or advanced”weather services,indicating a comprehensive range of information and 63VPV(8(P8ta servicesTailored productsNoYesNo Data ClimatemonitoringClimate analysisand diagnosticsClimatepredictionsClimate changeprojectionsFigure 17.Breakdown of the diverse range of climate services provided by NMHSs to the health sector in the LAC region Note:Percentages are based on the 32 WMO Members from the LAC region.27advanced capabilities.In contrast,47%provide only“basic or essential”weather services,suggesting limitations in the scope and depth of the information available to the public and relevant authorities(Figure18).The results highlight the need for substantial improvements and investments in weather services infrastructure.However,it is important to note that a significant percentage of responses fall into the category of“No data”,making these findings highly dependent on the countries/territories that responded to the survey.Achieving a higher percentage of NMHSs offering“full or advanced”services is essential to enhance the overall preparedness and resilience of communities and individuals in the face of weather-related risks.Such advancements would ensure that a broader array of information,including more sophisticated forecasts,is accessible to the public,enabling better decision-making and response strategies to protect public health and safety.As extreme weather events become more intense and impactful due to climate change,the importance of strengthening and expanding advanced weather services cannot be overstated.47%6%6Asic/EssentialFull/AdvancedLess than basicNo dataFigure 18.Overview of generalized weather services capacities(not sector specific).Note:Percentages are based on the 32 WMO Members from the LAC region.28TEMPERATURESix datasets(cited below)were used in the calculation of regional temperature.Regional mean temperature anomalies were calculated relative to the 19611990 and 19912020 baselines using the following steps:1.Read the gridded dataset;2.Regrid the data to 1latitude1longitude resolution.If the gridded data are higher resolution,take a mean of the grid boxes within each 11grid box.If the gridded data are lower resolution,copy the low-resolution grid box value into each 11grid box that falls inside the low-resolution grid box;3.For each month,calculate the regional area average using only those 11grid boxes whose centres fall over land within the region;4.For each year,take the mean of the monthly area averages to get an annual area average;5.Calculate the mean of the annual area averages over the periods 19611990 and 19912020;6.Subtract the 30-year period average from each year to obtain the anomalies relative to that base period.The following six datasets were used:Berkeley Earth Rohde,R.A.;Hausfather,Z.The Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean Temperature Record.Earth System Science Data 2020,12,34693479.https:/doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3469-2020.The data are available here.ERA5 Hersbach,H.;Bell,B.;Berrisford,P.et al.The ERA5 Global Reanalysis.Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 2020,146(730),19992049.https:/doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803.The data are available here.GISTEMP v4 GISTEMP Team.GISS Surface Temperature Analysis(GISTEMP),version 4.NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,2022.https:/data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.Lenssen,N.;Schmidt,G.;Hansen,J.et al.Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2019,124(12),63076326.https:/doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029522.The data are available here.HadCRUT.5.0.2.0 Morice,C.P.;Kennedy,J.J.;Rayner,N.A.et al.An Updated Assessment of Near-Surface Temperature Change From 1850:The HadCRUT5 Data Set.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2021,126.https:/doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032361.HadCRUT.5.0.2.0 data were obtained from http:/www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5 on 17January 2024 and are British Crown Copyright,Met Office 2024,provided under an Open Government Licence,http:/www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/.JRA55 Kobayashi,S.;Ota,Y.;Harada,Y.et al.The JRA55 Reanalysis:General Specifications and Basic Characteristics.Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan.Ser.II 2015,93(1),548.https:/doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001.The data are available here.NOAAGlobalTemp v5.1 NOAA Interim:Vose,R.S.;Huang,B.;Yin,X.et al.Implementing Full Spatial Coverage in NOAAs Global Temperature Analysis.Geophysical Research Letters 2021,48.https:/doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090873.The data are available here.Temperature in situ data from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services were also used.Datasets and methods29PRECIPITATIONPrecipitation in situ data from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services were used.GLACIERSGlacier mass balance data for 22monitored glaciers in the Andes were obtained from the World Glacier Monitoring Service(WGMS),https:/www.wgms.ch.SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURESea-surface temperature anomalies were processed by CIIFEN using data from the NOAA/NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System(GODAS).SEA LEVELRegional sea-level trends are based on gridded C3S altimetry data averaged from 50km offshore to the coast by the Laboratory of Space Geophysical and Oceanographic Studies(LEGOS).FLOODSData from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and from United Nations organizations were used,as well as data from https:/ Integrated Drought Index(IDI)uses Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)data calculated using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data(CHIRPS)and the Vegetation Health Index from the Center for Satellite Applications and Research(STAR/NOAA).Drought data were also provided by the United States Drought Monitor(USDM)https:/droughtmonitor.unl.edu/.WILDFIRESActive fire data for South America come from NASA satellite images(MODIS-AQUA)processed by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research(INPE).COLD WAVESIn situ data from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services were used.30CLIMATE SERVICES2023 State of Climate Services:Health(WMO-No.1335).2020 State of Climate Services:Risk Information and Early Warning Systems(WMO-No.1252).WMO analysis of the NDCs of the parties to the Paris Agreement,complemented by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)synthesis report:Nationally Determined Contributions Under the Paris Agreement:Synthesis Report by the Secretariat.Readapted from WMO based on data from World Health Organization(WHO).2023 WHO Review of Health in Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-term Strategies:Health at the Heart of the Paris Agreement;WHO:Geneva,2023.https:/iris.who.int/handle/10665/372276.Checklist for Climate Services Implementation(Climate Services Dashboard)31NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICESAntigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services;National Meteorological Service(SMN),Argentina;Bahamas Department of Meteorology;Barbados Meteorological Services;National Meteorological Service,Belize;Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa(SENAMHI),Bolivia(Plurinational State of);National Meteorological Institute of Brazil(INMET);Direccin Meteorolgica de Chile(DMC);Institute of Hydrology,Meteorology and Environmental Studies(IDEAM),Colombia;National Meteorological Institute(IMN),Costa Rica;Meteorological Department Curacao;Dominica Meteorological Service;National Office of Meteorology,Dominican Republic;Instituto Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa(INAMHI),Ecuador;Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources(MARN),El Salvador;Meteo-France;Grenada Meteorological Service;Instituto Nacional de Sismologa,Vulcanologa,Meteorologa e Hidrologa(INSIVUMEH),Guatemala;Hydrometeorological Service,Guyana;Centro de Estudios Atmosfricos,Oceanogrficos y Ssmicos(CENAOS),Honduras;National Water Commission(CONAGUA),Mexico;Instituto Meteorolgico Hidrolgico de Panam(IMHPA);Direccin de Meteorologa e Hidrologa(DMH),Paraguay;Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa(SENAMHI),Peru;Saint Lucia Meteorological Services;Meteorological Department Sint Maarten;Meteorological Service Suriname;Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service;National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA),United States of America;Instituto Uruguayo de Meteorologa(INUMET),Uruguay;Instituto Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa(INAMEH),Venezuela(Bolivarian Republic of)ORGANIZATIONSCaribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology(CIMH);Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters(CRED);Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S);Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO);Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC);Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research(IAI);International Research Centre on El Nio(CIIFEN);International Research Institute for Climate and Society(IRI);Laboratory of Space Geophysical and Oceanographic Studies(LEGOS),France;National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters(CEMADEN),Brazil;National Institute for Space Research(INPE),Brazil;NOAA;Pan American Health Organization(PAHO);Regional Climate Centre for Western South America(RCC-WSA);Regional Climate Centre Network for Southern South America(RCC-SSA);ReliefWeb;School of Earth Sciences,Energy and Environment,Yachay Tech University(Ecuador);United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP);United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs(OCHA);United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR,formerly UNISDR);Universidad Veracruzana(UV),Mexico;Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro(UFRJ),Brazil;WMO;WMO Commission for Weather,Climate,Hydrological,Marine and Related Environmental Services and Applications(SERCOM)Expert Team on Climate Monitoring and Assessment(ET-CMA);World Glacier Monitoring Service(WGMS)INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTORSJose A.Marengo(coordinating lead author,CEMADEN),Jorge Luis Vzquez-Aguirre(coordinating lead author,UV),Rodney Martinez(lead author,WMO),Barbara Tapia(lead author,WMO),TeddyAllen(CIMH),Grinia Avalos Roldan(SENAMHI-Peru),Pablo Ayala(MARN),OmarBaddour(WMO),JulianBaez(WMO),Alexander Baklanov(WMO),Ruben Basantes-Serrano(Yachay Tech University),Jessica Blunden(NOAA,ET-CMA),Daniel List of contributors32Buss(PAHO),Anabel Castro Narciso(SENAMHI-Peru),Anny Cazenave(LEGOS),Kris Correa Marrou(SENAMHI-Peru),SebastianCortinez(FAO),Felipe Costa(CIIFEN),Ana Paula Cunha(CEMADEN),CristinaDavilaArriaga(SENAMHI-Peru),DanielleB.Ferreira(INMET),Yolanda Gonzalez(CIIFEN),Atsushi Goto(WMO),YvanGouzenes(LEGOS),Veronica Grasso(WMO),StellaHartinger(Lancet Countdown Latin America),KarinaHernandez(IMN),Christopher Hewitt(WMO),John Kennedy(WMO,ET-CMA),MarionKhamis(FAO),Renata Libonati(UFRJ-Instituto de Geocincias(IGEO),ET-CMA),FilipeLucio(WMO),JrgLuterbacher(WMO),AnwarMendez(PAHO),Jorge Molina(SENAMHI-Bolivia,Plurinational State of),Nakiete Msemo(WMO),ZuhelenPadilla(IAI);Reynaldo Pascual(SMN-CONAGUA),Karen Polson-Edwards(PAHO),Maria Mercedes Proano(FAO),Andrea M.Ramos(INMET),ClaireRansom(WMO),Alejandro Saez Reale(WMO),IlianaSalazar(CIIFEN);Nury Sanabria(IMN),Joy Shumake-Guillemot(WMO),Jos lvaro Pimpo Silva(WMO),YasnaKarina Palmeiro Silva(Lancet Countdown),Mara delos Milagros Skansi(SMN-Argentina),Anna Stewart-Ibarra(IAI),Irene Torres(IAI);BlairTrewin(Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM,ET-CMA),Markus Ziese(GPCC,ET-CMA)1 https:/gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html.Measurements at Mauna Loa were interrupted by a volcanic eruption and the measurement site was temporarily relocated to Mauna Kea observatories,34km to the north.2 https:/www.csiro.au/greenhouse-gases/3 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;Masson-Delmotte,V.;Zhai,P.;Pirani,A.et al.,Eds.;Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,UK and New York,USA,2021.https:/www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/.4 https:/origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php 5 National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters(CEMADEN),Brazil6 Vuille,M.;Francou,B.;Wagnon,P.et al.ClimateChange and TropicalAndeanGlaciers:Past,Presentand Future.Earth-ScienceReviews 2008,89,7996.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2008.04.002.7 https:/wgms.ch/data/min-data-series/FoG_MB_1344.csv8 https:/blogs.agu.org/fromaglaciersperspective/2023/02/26/glacier-ohiggins-chile-rapid-calving-retreat-2016-2023/9 Millan,R.;Rignot,E.;Rivera,A.et al.Ice Thickness and Bed Elevation of the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields.Geophysical Research Letters 2019,46,66266635.https:/doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082485.10 World Meteorological Organization(WMO).State of the Global Climate 2023(WMO-No.1347).Geneva,2024.11 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;Masson-Delmotte,V.;Zhai,P.;Pirani,A.et al.,Eds.;Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,UK and New York,USA,2021.https:/www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/.12 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;Masson-Delmotte,V.;Zhai,P.;Pirani,A.et al.,Eds.;Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,UK and New York,USA,2021.https:/www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/.13 https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/tws_atl_latest.gif14 https:/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml 15 https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/tws_pac_latest.gif16 NOAA/NHC Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Otis:https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP182023_Otis.pdf 17 https:/public.emdat.be/18 https:/www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-otis-causes-catastrophic-damage-acapulco-mexico 19 NOAA/NHC Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Idalia:https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102023_Idalia.pdf 20 National Water Commission(CONAGUA),Mexico,and https:/ https:/ 22 National Meteorological Institute(INMET),Brazil:https:/portal.inmet.gov.br23 https:/estado.rs.gov.br/19h15-balanco-da-defesa-civil-sobre-chuvas-intensas-e-enchentes-no-rs-contabiliza-48-mortes 24 https:/mapas.inmet.gov.br/25 National Meteorological Service(SMN),Argentina:https:/www.smn.gob.ar/26 Direccin de Meteorologa e Hidrologa(DMH),Paraguay:https:/www.meteorologia.gov.py/27 https:/smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/climatologia/monitor-de-sequia/monitor-de-sequia-en-mexico Endnotes3428 Coordinacin General del Servicio Meteorolgico Nacional de la Comisin Nacional del Agua.Reporte Anual del Clima en Mxico 2023.https:/smn.conagua.gob.mx/tools/DATA/Climatologa/Diagnstico Atmosfrico/Reporte del Clima en Mxico/Anual2023.pdf.29 https:/www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/noticias-cemaden/impactos-do-fenomeno-el-nino-no-brasil-no-trimestre-son-2023-e-projecoes-de-evolucao-do-evento-no-verao-2024 30 https:/www.sgb.gov.br/publique/Hidrologia/Eventos-Criticos/Seca-na-Regiao-Amazonica-8328.html 31 National Water Agency of Brazil,ANA(https:/www.gov.br/ana/pt-br)and the Brazilian Geological Survey(https:/www.sgb.gov.br/)32 https:/www.senamhi.gob.pe/load/file/02609SENA-147.pdf 33 SENAMHI-Plurinational State of Bolivia:https:/senamhi.gob.bo/index.php/inicio 34 http:/monitorsequias.senamhi.gob.bo/35 https:/www.senamhi.gob.pe/?&p=condiciones-climaticas#https:/ https:/uy.usembassy.gov/alert-water-crisis-declared-by-uruguayan-government/37 https:/reliefweb.int/report/world/crop-monitor-amis-no-109-september-202338 https:/droughtmonitor.unl.edu/NADM/Home.aspx 39 https:/joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/drought-conditions-threaten-economy-and-ecosystems-south-america-2023-05-22_en;https:/www.cr2.cl/analisis-cr2-vuelve-aculeo-se-va-la-megasequia/40 https:/rcc.cimh.edu.bb/spi-monitor-december-2023/41 https:/ 42 www.inmet.gov.br 43 www.smn.gob.ar 44 www.meteorologia.gov.py 45 46 https:/terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/queimadas/situacao-atual/estatisticas/estatisticas_estados/47 https:/reliefweb.int/report/brazil/unicef-brazil-humanitarian-situation-report-no-2-amazon-drought-22-november-202348 Coordinacin General del Servicio Meteorolgico Nacional de la Comisin Nacional del Agua.Reporte Anual del Clima en Mxico 2023.https:/smn.conagua.gob.mx/tools/DATA/Climatologa/Diagnstico Atmosfrico/Reporte del Clima en Mxico/Anual2023.pdf.49 https:/www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/862593/TNE_SE_40.pdf 50 www.senamhi.gob.bo 51 Paz-Soldn,V.A.;Valcarcel,A.;Canal-Solis,K.et al.A Critical Analysis of National Plans for Climate Adaptation for Health in South America.The Lancet Regional HealthAmericas 2023,26.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2023.100604.Seealso Inter-American Development Bank(IADB);World Justice project(WJP).Environmental Governance Indicators for Latin America and the Caribbean;IADB,2020.https:/publications.iadb.org/publications/english/viewer/Environmental-Governance-Indicators-for-Latin-America-the-Caribbean.pdf.52 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO);International Fund for Agricultural Development(IFAD);Pan American Health Organization(PAHO);United Nations Childrens Fund(UNICEF);World Food Programme(WFP).Regional Overview of Food Security and NutritionLatin America and the Caribbean 2022:Towards Improving Affordability of Healthy Diets;FAO:Santiago,2023.https:/openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/cc3859en.53 https:/repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/e776cadf-97b2-409e-9a1f-4c7e9923c31f/content 3554 https:/public.emdat.be/55 Food Security Information Network(FSIN);Global Network Against Food Crises(GNFC).GRFC 2023 Mid-Year Update;FSIN:Rome,2023.https:/www.fsinplatform.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/GRFC2023-MYU.pdf.56 https:/www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/ipc-mapping-tool/57 https:/www.ipcc.ch/srccl/faqs/faqs-chapter-5/58 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO).The Impact of Disasters and Crises on Agriculture and Food Security;FAO:Rome,2021.https:/www.fao.org/3/cb3673en/cb3673en.pdf.59 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO).The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023:Avoiding and Reducing Losses Through Investment in Resilience;FAO:Rome,2023.https:/doi.org/10.4060/cc7900en.60 Prtner,H.-O.;Roberts,D.C.;Adams,H.et al.Technical Summary.In Climate Change 2022:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability.Working GroupII Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;Prtner,H.-O.;Roberts,D.C.;Tignor,M.et al.,Eds.;Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,UK and New York,USA,2022.https:/www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf61 https:/reliefweb.int/attachments/61f6810f-6e91-49c2-9afb-86e9d1859715/WFP-0000157672.pdf62 https:/ 63 www.conab.gov.br64 https:/www.unocha.org/publications/report/el-salvador/latinoamerica-y-el-caribe-el-nino-panorama-humanitario-al-30-de-noviembre-2023 65 https:/ Ministerio de Ganadera,Uruguay:https:/www.gub.uy/ministerio-ganaderia-agricultura-pesca/sites/ministerio-ganaderia-agricultura-pesca/files/documentos/noticias/_Estimaciones perdidas deficit hidrico 2022-.pdf67 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO).Crop Prospects and Food Situation;Triannual Global Report,No.3,November 2023.FAO:Rome.https:/www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/CC8566EN.68 https:/wmo.int/media/news/el-nino-expected-last-least-until-april-202469 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO).El Fenmeno de El Nio en agricultura,ganadera,pesca y acuicultura:Pronsticos y recomendaciones para la accin;FAO:Santiago,2023.https:/doi.org/10.4060/cc7897es.70 Instituto Nacional de Estadstica e Informtica(INEI),Peru:https:/m.inei.gob.pe/prensa/noticias/produccion-nacional-disminuyo-en-063-en-agosto-de-2023-14601/#:text=El sector Pesca creci 49,registradas en agosto de 2022.71 https:/www.unocha.org/publications/report/colombia/colombia-estimaciones-afectacion-y-priorizacion-por-fenomeno-del-nino72 https:/nube.siap.gob.mx/(restricted access)73 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO).Crop Prospects and Food Situation;Triannual Global Report,No.3,November 2023.FAO:Rome.https:/www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/CC8566EN.74 https:/reliefweb.int/report/world/crop-monitor-early-warning-no-88-november-2023 75 https:/reliefweb.int/report/el-salvador/central-america-regional-supply-and-market-outlook-december-202376 https:/ https:/ https:/ https:/reliefweb.int/report/dominican-republic/inundaciones-en-republica-dominicana-informe-de-situacion-no-2-6-de-diciembre-de-20233680 World Meteorological Organization(WMO).2023 State of Climate Services:Health(WMO-No.1335).Geneva,2023.81 Hartinger,S.M.;Palmeiro-Silva,Y.K.;Llerena-Cayo,C.et al.The 2023 Latin America Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change:The Imperative for Health-Centred Climate-resilient Development.The Lancet Regional Health Americas 2024,20.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2024.100746.Based on estimates of heat-related deaths of people older than 65 years in 17 countries:Argentina,Bolivia(Plurinational State of),Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,Ecuador,El Salvador,Guatemala,Honduras,Mexico,Nicaragua,Panama,Paraguay,Peru,Uruguay and Venezuela(Bolivarian Republicof).82 Zhao,Q.;Guo,Y.;Ye.,T.et al.Global,Regional,and National Burden of Mortality Associated with Non-optimal Ambient Temperatures from 2000 to 2019:A Three-stage Modelling Study.The Lancet Planetary Health 2021,5.https:/doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00081-4.83 https:/www.paho.org/en/topics/air-quality.See also United States Global Change Research Program,Fifth National Climate Assessment,Chapter14:Air Quality,https:/nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/14/.84 World Meteorological Organization(WMO).2023 State of Climate Services:Health(WMO-No.1335).Geneva,2023.85 https:/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10319332/86 https:/www.paho.org/en/documents/epidemiological-alert-increase-dengue-cases-central-america-and-caribbean-15-september87 Shumake-Guillemot,J.;von Borries,R.;Campbell-Lendrum,D.et al.Good Practices:Co-producing Integrated Climate,Environment and Health Services.PLOS Climate 2023,2(11).https:/doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000304.88 https:/climahealth.info/89 https:/www.paho.org/en/snapshot-health-and-climate-change-americas 90 Paz-Soldn,V.A.;Valcarcel,A.;Canal-Solis,K.et al.A Critical Analysis of National Plans for Climate Adaptation for Health in South America.The Lancet Regional HealthAmericas 2023,26.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2023.100604.91 Hartinger,S.M.;Yglesias-Gonzlez,M.;Blanco-Villafuerte,L.et al.The 2022 South America Report of The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change:Trust the Science.Now that We Know,We Must Act.The Lancet Regional HealthAmericas 2023,20.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2023.100470.92 Human Rights Watch(HRW).This Hell Was My Only Option;HRW,2023.https:/www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/media_2023/11/americas1123web_1.pdf.93 https:/wmo.int/site/global-framework-climate-services-gfcs/what-are-climate-services 94 Shumake-Guillemot,J.;von Borries,R.;Campbell-Lendrum,D.et al.Good Practices:Co-producing Integrated Climate,Environment and Health Services.PLOS Climate 2023,2(11).https:/doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000304.95 https:/www.paho.org/en/file/110966/download?token=gOnaHSo7 96 World Meteorological Organization(WMO).Step-by-step Guidelines for Establishing a National Framework for Climate Services(WMO-No.1206).Geneva,2018.For more information,please contact:World Meteorological Organization7 bis,avenue de la Paix P.O.Box 2300 CH 1211 Geneva 2 SwitzerlandStrategic Communications Office Cabinet Office of the Secretary-GeneralTel: 41(0)22 730 83 14 Fax: 41(0)22 730 80 27Email:cpawmo.int wmo.intJN 24389
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Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageNovember 2023LONG DURATION ENERGY STORAGE(LDES)The Long Duration Energy Storage Council commissioned this report to demonstrate the current and potential applications for member technologies to decarbonize industry.There are multiple long duration energy storage technologies commercially available and under development.In general,these technologies provide more than eight hours of energy using a variety of electrochemical,mechanical,thermal,and chemical storage media.Many of these technologies have been under development for more than a decade and oftentimes utilize existing motors,pumps and other equipment that has already been utilized in other industries.1The importance of long duration energy storage technologies will increase in line with increasing saturation of intermittent renewable energy supply on electric grids around the world.This report examines how long duration energy storage technologies can decarbonize fossil fueled industrial processes by utilizing this renewable energy supply to provide reliable baseload electric supply.The Long Duration Energy Storage Council commissioned global management consulting firm Roland Berger to conduct the analysis and compile the report.Roland Berger collaborated with the Long Duration Energy Storage Council staff as well as its technology and anchor members on the content,analysis and assumptions in this report.ABOUT THE LDES COUNCILThe Long Duration Energy Storage Council(LDES Council)is global non-profit organization committed to decarbonizing global energy systems by 2040 through the development,deployment,and integration of long duration energy storage technologies(LDES).The LDES Councils mission is to facilitate the transition to a more sustainable and resilient energy future by advocating for policies,fostering innovation,and promoting collaboration among its membership and stakeholders in the energy industry.As the leading voice in advocating for the widespread adoption of diverse long duration energy storage technologies,the LDES Council provides guidance and reports to enable the integration of renewable energy sources and enhance grid stability using LDES technologies to achieve a flexible,secure,reliable,affordable,and fossil fuel free energy system.ABOUT ROLAND BERGERHeadquartered in Munich,Germany,Roland Berger is a global management consulting firm of approximately 3,500 consultants.Roland Berger has more than 50 offices in 30 countries,and specializes in supporting its industrials,utility,investor and government clients through the energy transition.Preface1 The idea of hydraulic energy storage by means of pumps and turbines was born at the end of the 19th century in Switzerland and in Germany.The first pumped storage plant was built in Zurich in 1891 at the Limmat river followed by a second installation 1894 at lake Maggiore and a third one 1899 at the Aare river.The principle of pumped storage was first realized in Germany 1891,where a steam machine was driving a centrifugal pump for dewatering the Rosenhof ore mine in the Upper Harz mountain by filling an upper reservoir,which was serving a separate water wheel.Krueger,K.,2020.Pumped Hydroelectric Storage.In K.Brun,T.Allison,and R.Dennis:Thermal,Mechanical,and Hybrid Chemical Energy Storage,New York,NY:Elsevier,ISBN 978-0-12-819892-62 Contents 01 02 03 04 0506 PrefaceExecutive summaryGlossaryThe case for industrial decarbonizationNet Zero Industry:Methodology overview Off-grid electric Easy-to-electrify heat Hard-to-electrify heatSupporting policy mechanismsAppendix A.Data centersB.Analytical approachC.Technologies technical and cost assumptionsD.Case study approach and status quo assumptionsE.Long Duration Energy Storage Council members247815222739465051535859623 LDES technologies paired with renewables are a viable,cost-efficient and readily appliable option for industrial decarbonization,as observers consider these technologies“An embarrassingly simple solution for industrial emissions.”2 Moreover,long duration energy storage technologies are already being piloted by blue chip industrial firms,as they are impatient to decarbonize now and LDES gives them this opportunity.Tata Steel,ArcelorMittal,BHP,Rio Tinto,Yara,Avery Dennison,Eni and Microsoft are among the industrial firms embarking on projects to demonstrate the ability of LDES technologies to decarbonize their operations.LDES technologies costs,capabilities,and durability enable them to support a wide range of applications for Long duration energy storage technologies paired with renewables could reduce global industrial greenhouse gas emissions by 65%.One of the most attractive current applications for LDES technologies is to support firm renewable electricity for off grid applications based on representative case studies analyzed in this report.LDES technologies also reduce the cost of abatement for low-to-medium temperature fossil fueled industrial processes(100C to 500C)and would be attractive with carbon incentives.Governments worldwide should prioritize policies that increase industrial users propensity to deploy LDES technologies such as subsidies,prices on carbon and pilot projects.industrial energy use cases that are unsuited to shorter duration resources.LDES has the ability to provide the equivalent of base load renewable power for industrial customers,in some cases for mulitple days or even on a seasonal basis.Employing LDES technologies on a behind the meter basis will in many instances,enable industrial users to realize their decarbonization targets independent of the status of the decarbonization of the broader regional wholesale electricity system.In many instances,LDES technologies can also address industrys needs for thermal energy that cannot be addressed by electricity alone.Commercially available LDES electric and heat technologies are technically capable of reducing industrial emissions by 65%.As described in Figure 1,a reduction of 7.7 billion tons of CO2 are addressable by LDES technologies today.Yet policy and market support is required to ensure that these reductions can be achieved.FIG.1Executive summary2 https:/www-ft-com.ezp.lib.cam.ac.uk/content/7c6a0928-a233-4444-b294-2970062701414 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageLDES USE CASESExisting applications for long duration electric and thermal energy storage include firming wind and solar for off-grid use,and using renewable energy to decarbonize fossil-fueled industrial processes at 500C and below through electrification.LDES technologies are already economically attractive in enabling off-grid facilities to replace high-cost diesel fuel with firmed renewable electricity even without carbon incentives.FIG.2The technologies reduce the cost of abatement by more than 20%for low-to-medium temperature processes used in food manufacturing and chemical processes.They would be more economically attractive with carbon incentives in place.The level of deployment of LDES in Hard-to-electrify industries like steel and cement are currently limited due to integration requirements for electric technologies to support their high temperature,radiative heat needs.However,LDES can already reduce emissions in these sectors by enabling those industrial users to take advantage of intermittent renewable generation for their round-the-clock electricity needs,and accessing CO2-free heat supply and recovery waste heat for lower temperature processes.Additionally,steel producers looking to utilize 100%renewable energy in their operations are looking to 100 hour LDES technologies to provide reliability in their steelmaking process and solve inherent intermittent renewable power generation.In the longer term,LDES has the potential to directly replace heat supply for high temperature fossil-fueled processes(e.g.,thermal energy storage-powered kilns for cement)or support complementary technologies(e.g.,electric LDES with e-kilns for cement or thermal energy storage paired with concentrated solar power).FIGURE 1Global industrial emissions addressable by LDES3Source:Our World In Data,IEA,Roland Berger Global industrial emissionsShare addressable by LDES todayEmissions reduction opportunity for LDES12.5 billion tons of CO265%8.0billion tons CO22021 global industrial greenhouse gas emissionsPortion of total industrial emissions from electricity supply and 1,000 C)or radiative heatGrid-connected electricIndustry that is grid connected,where LDES can enable transition from fossil fuels to intermittent renewable generationGrid-connected electricData Centers2.0D 2.0%indicates the share of total global emissions that data centers represented in 2022;data centers are not categorized as a component of industrial emissions6 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageGlossaryCapex.Capital expenditureCO2.Carbon dioxideC.Degrees CelsiusDCF.Discounted cash flowEV.Electric vehicleGJ.GigajoulesH2.HydrogenICE.Internal combustion enginek.1,000kg.KilogramskWe MWe TWe.Kilowatts,megawatts,terawatts electrickWt MWt TWt.Kilowatts,megawatts,terawatts thermalMWhe TWhe.Megawatt-hours,terawatt-hours electricLDES.Long Duration Energy Storagemmbtu.Million British Thermal Units NPV.Net present valueOpex.Operating expenditurep.a.Per annumPPA.Power purchase agreementR&D.Research and developmentRE.Renewable energy(solar and wind for report)REC.Renewable energy creditSMR.Small modular reactorsTon(s)or t.Metric tonsTOU.Time-of-useUSD.United States DollarsVOLL.Value of lost loadWACC.Weighted average cost of capital.Delta/.Greater than,less than7 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageIlias sapienihitat la qui acessi incit,tores ea cum est haruptatem quostiaeprae et maximus.Xeria qui tenis asimpor entisti sciditis nulpa quibusa picaepudit voluptatiis maio blabo.Nam restiis moluptiis ut offic te volut asped qui delique con et,se aut verchit fugia sitium ellessi sequis int ideleni aerum,sincta ped mi,comnimus et ipsant anima pos ilis delecturio.Soles moloris accullor sunt.Evenecus aut omnihicae vellendis invendae maione nonet doloremqui qui doluptior alignat empeliquo min nonsed utatatet untis rere nonectem rerferu mquat.Litat.Asit ullabor escienimus qui odi doluptat.Rum faccus,que plicabo rionect isimagnati adia dolorer ibuscii scidend electuria as si aut estem asint.Te voluptaturis el mos aut et optassint.Nam,odit omnis utate ex et omnissit volupta quam doluptate ped que la sitatem.Ga.Luptat labor aut mos ab iliquiassin esequat qui imperum rerovid quias ea voluptas nim am quod quisiti ut landae et voluptatem reritatur?Ovit poriatur min estibus molore cullam,simi,qui de dit,sunt eaque venditaecta nus et reped quiatia nate natiust otatibus,ipidus,quis dolorem con est,sinctio nserionem etur?Atumquatum solupic temquias ad quistibus esequam volorum et mo volupta con nonsed magnihita inus ut volluptibus erferio dolorum quibus eosa evenis doluptate es reratint et aut exerum nimus.Et expliquid quam eveliti nvendenditis vendelit rectium re volupta tibusam nonsequam dolorecto beatemporio.Rae que nonserfercid ut aruptaquid maxime delluptatem est lit labo.Parunti assinis doluptatet facienis molupta speriore veribus.Ga.Ita con prae rent volupis as et quia velibus sum atur,ut et ipsam in et aut as dolo mint dolo consequaest,velecea quamus volorru pturias ellibustio.Itas iliquam dernatur,voluptam repero ducias id magni inimporae aut intis doloris quis eium eos maio.Catiust fugiam ilibeaqui tecuptatur mi,sitatur,unt et,to mo bea nonsequ aectibu sandusanti.Litat.Asit ullabor escienimus qui odi doluptat.Rum faccus,que plicabo rionect isimagnati adia dolorer ibuscii scidend electuria as si aut estem asint.Te voluptaturis.00Chapter start page lorem ipsum dolor setThe case for industrial decarbonization KEY FINDINGSIndustrial emissions account for more than a quarter of total global greenhouse emissions and are expected to increase;therefore,industrial decarbonization is critical to achieve the Paris Climate Accords 1.5C pathway1.The industrial sector produces a large and rising share of global greenhouse gas emissions,especially in rapidly growing developing nations5;this challenge is compounded by growth in demand for heat and commodity price pressures2.Decarbonization of the sector requires:a.Technologies that can firm renewables and address a broad range of temperature requirements b.A policy-and market-driven approach that encourages firms to procure renewables matched to electricity consumption and implement new production processes3.LDES can address 65%of industrial emissions today,equating to an 8 billion tons CO2 emissions reduction opportunity01Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage8 Industry is a key driver of the global economy.However,it is also a dirty business.Industrial emissions account for around a quarter of annual global emissions.In 2016,total industrial greenhouse gas emissions were around 12 billion tons CO2e,a figure that,without interventions,will almost double by 2050.6 The bulk of incremental emissions is forecasted to be in developing economies.7Around half of industrial emissions are driven by heat requirements for production processes.8 Emissions are high because the vast majority of industrial heat demand is currently met by burning fossil fuels,jeopardizing the ability to achieve the Paris Climate Accords 1.5C pathway.Most industrial processes require heat at specific levels and lots of it.Demand for industrial heat is expected to grow by 34tween 2019 and 2040,with low and medium temperature heat the fastest growing segments.FIG.3This rise in demand coincides with economic and population growth and a push by countries around the world to achieve energy independence,driven by economic forces and national security concerns.This rush towards self-sufficiency has sometimes been pursued at the expense of decarbonization progress,threatening global efforts to reduce emissions.On a per country basis,industrial emissions have more than doubled in non-OECD countries since 2000,while they have fallen by 16%in OECD countries over the same period.9 CO2 emissions in non-OECD countries have risen 3%per year on average,while slightly declining in the industrialized world.These trends present both challenges and opportunities.5 Developing nations or developing economies are a proxy for non-OECD countries 6 Roland Berger estimate based on a 2016 baseline from the PBL Netherland Environmental Assessment Agency 7 Energy Information Agency 2021 International Energy Outlook;non-OECD countries are a proxy for developing economies 8 Power Infrastructure Needs for Economywide Decarbonization(c2es.org)9 Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research 2022 Report https:/edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2022FIGURE 3Global industrial energy and heat demand,2019 TWhSource:RC2ES Center for Climate and Energy Solutions,International Energy Agency,Roland BergerNote:Figure based on IEA New Policies scenario from WEO 20172019204023,61131,66711,33313,4175,194400C7,6947,08310,556 18% 48% 49% 34%9 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageDECARBONIZATION CHALLENGESSuccessfully decarbonizing industry is expensive and requires technologies that can firm renewables and service a broad range of temperature requirements.While technologies are constantly advancing,meeting these temperature demands is a key challenge.As shown in Figure 4,temperature requirements vary across and within industrial sectors,even in individual plants.While some lower temperature requirements can already be met by electrification using renewables,meeting the very high temperature needs of,for example,the steel and cement industry through electrification is extremely challenging.FIG.4As well as satisfying temperature demands,decarbonization alternatives require often-risk-averse plant managers to embrace new technologies that are only now starting to gain commercial traction.Few proven solutions to electrify industrial processes have emerged and there has been a lack of scale to commercialize them(resulting in cost barriers).In addition,implementing decarbonized solutions is a CFO-level decision for industrial firms,many of whom are highly sensitive to cost pressures because they operate in commodity-reliant industries.They are also used to operating in a climate of where industrial energy is very cheap,simple and efficient.FIGURE 4Industrial temperature requirements,Germany00C150-500CFood&beverageWoodMachinery manufacturingMetal constructionPaperOthersRubber&plasticsChemicalsCement and non-metalsSteel and metals0 0%Source:Bundesverband Geothermie,Roland Berger10 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageINDUSTRIAL DECARBONIZATION APPROACHESSuccessfully decarbonizing the energy sources and production processes of industry is not just good for the sector itself,it also has a knock-on effect on the wider economy.It reduces the embodied carbon of industrial products while also cutting the impact of pollutants on nearby communities and ecosystems.For example,as shown in Figure 5,decarbonizing cement reduces the embodied carbon of the downstream products that use it as an input.This also effects bottom lines.Embodied carbon reductions could enable early decarbonization movers to capitalize on green willingness-to-pay premiums on their products.Such premiums are gaining traction due to both end-consumer pull towards sustainability and government policy on the carbon footprints of produced goods.This downstream interest in the carbon intensity of upstream production is demonstrated by the rise of environmental declarations about goods and services.FIG.5Decarbonization also offers social benefits.For example,the reduction of non-GHG emissions from industrial plants,such as particulate matter,ozone and heavy metals that impact local air and water quality,can lead to health improvements for communities living close by to these facilities.In addition,a transition to sustainable operations can extend the useful lives of such facilities,helping to preserve jobs.Source:Roland BergerFIGURE 5Example downstream embodied carbon reductions in decarbonized cement productionDecarbonizing cement production.Reduces the embodied carbon of cement used in.Residential buildingsIndustrial waterNon-residential buildingsSewerageRoadsHarbors and airportsAgriculture,forestry,and fisheriesRailways and telecommunication11 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageHowever,change will not come about by itself.Achieving these decarbonization goals will require both new policy and market willingness to implement new production processes.EXAMPLE APPROACHESA growing number of industrial companies large and small around the world are already proactively undertaking decarbonization initiatives,or will soon be mandated to as governments roll out strict decarbonization standards,carbon taxes or equivalent cap-and-trade mechanisms and/or subsidies for clean energy technologies.One such example is the European Unions Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.It aims to protect early industrial decarbonization adopters in the bloc by imposing a carbon tax based on the embodied carbon in imported commodity materials.Another example is Australias Safeguard Mechanism,which was implemented in July 2023.It specifically requires industrial facilities to reduce their emissions below a baseline,or acquire carbon credits.The policy targets emissions-intensive operations and organizations10 that emit over 100,000 tons11 of CO2 per year.In terms of subsidies,the United States and European Union are advancing substantial tax credits and subsidies through the Inflation Reduction Act and the Green Deal Industrial Plan,respectively.The EUs Net Zero Industry Act,which stems from the Green Deal Industrial Plan,identifies goals for net-zero industrial capacity and aims to create a regulatory framework to speed its deployment.Companies themselves either as a matter of corporate strategy or due to investor/public pressure have also taken voluntary action.For example,as of June 2023,more than 1,300 large industrial companies around the world have committed to meaningful emissions reductions by setting a Science Based Target(SBTi).12 FIG.610 For example,mining,oil and gas production,manufacturing,transport,waste facilities.11 “Tons”refers to metric tons(1,000 kg);this applies to all further mentions of“tons”12 Science Based Targets Initiative global partnership that provides guidance and a pathway for the private sector to set science-based emissions-reduction targets12 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageFIGURE 6Number of companies with a Science Based Target12 by typeCumulative corporate sustainability targets set in line with the 2015 Paris AgreementSource:SBTI,Roland BergerIndustrialsOther playersYTD 20231138761974039802,0413,0132016201720182019202020212022By Sector#of companies with targets set51835861734438791,302620411112305371,1621,71113 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageSource:LDES Council,Roland BergerFIGURE 7Announced support for LDES in indicative countriesCountries(Ordered by USD)USDDetails2.0 bnChileEnergy storage,incl.LDES1.16 bnHungaryEnergy storage,incl.LDES500 mUnited StatesLDES-specific350 mSpainLDES-specific220 mCanadaEnergy storage,incl.LDES37 mUnited KingdomLDES-specific14 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage00Chapter start page lorem ipsum dolor setIlias sapienihitat la qui acessi incit,tores ea cum est haruptatem quostiaeprae et maximus.Xeria qui tenis asimpor entisti sciditis nulpa quibusa picaepudit voluptatiis maio blabo.Nam restiis moluptiis ut offic te volut asped qui delique con et,se aut verchit fugia sitium ellessi sequis int ideleni aerum,sincta ped mi,comnimus et ipsant anima pos ilis delecturio.Soles moloris accullor sunt.Evenecus aut omnihicae vellendis invendae maione nonet doloremqui qui doluptior alignat empeliquo min nonsed utatatet untis rere nonectem rerferu mquat.Litat.Asit ullabor escienimus qui odi doluptat.Rum faccus,que plicabo rionect isimagnati adia dolorer ibuscii scidend electuria as si aut estem asint.Te voluptaturis el mos aut et optassint.Nam,odit omnis utate ex et omnissit volupta quam doluptate ped que la sitatem.Ga.Luptat labor aut mos ab iliquiassin esequat qui imperum rerovid quias ea voluptas nim am quod quisiti ut landae et voluptatem reritatur?Ovit poriatur min estibus molore cullam,simi,qui de dit,sunt eaque venditaecta nus et reped quiatia nate natiust otatibus,ipidus,quis dolorem con est,sinctio nserionem etur?Atumquatum solupic temquias ad quistibus esequam volorum et mo volupta con nonsed magnihita inus ut volluptibus erferio dolorum quibus eosa evenis doluptate es reratint et aut exerum nimus.Et expliquid quam eveliti nvendenditis vendelit rectium re volupta tibusam nonsequam dolorecto beatemporio.Rae que nonserfercid ut aruptaquid maxime delluptatem est lit labo.Parunti assinis doluptatet facienis molupta speriore veribus.Ga.Ita con prae rent volupis as et quia velibus sum atur,ut et ipsam in et aut as dolo mint dolo consequaest,velecea quamus volorru pturias ellibustio.Itas iliquam dernatur,voluptam repero ducias id magni inimporae aut intis doloris quis eium eos maio.Catiust fugiam ilibeaqui tecuptatur mi,sitatur,unt et,to mo bea nonsequ aectibu sandusanti.Litat.Asit ullabor escienimus qui odi doluptat.Rum faccus,que plicabo rionect isimagnati adia dolorer ibuscii scidend electuria as si aut estem asint.Te voluptaturis.Net Zero Industry:Methodology overview02INTRODUCTIONLDES uses specialized technologies to store and discharge electric and thermal energy over durations ranging from eight to 100 hours or more.These technologies can be grouped into four principal LDES technology families:electrochemical,chemical,thermal and mechanical.Each one has its own application sweet spot,in terms of duration,power and cycling requirements.See Figure 8 for a detailed description.We have created case studies specific to each family to demonstrate their value for real-world applications.We assessed how LDES could complement other technologies in decarbonizing and the economic attractiveness of doing so.15 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageChemicalOBJECTIVESThe objectives of this study were to understand:1)how LDES can be applied to decarbonize different industrial applications around the world;2)the economic attractiveness of doing so;3)how LDES could complement other technologies addressing the same task;and 4)to identify if there are policy/regulatory actions which could accelerate the application of LDES-based decarbonization.The study uses case studies and assumptions to provide an assessment of the benefits that LDES technologies offer industrial users.It also provides information on the requirements of LDES and its current and expected capabilities.FOCUS AREASThe study focuses on LDES opportunities across a representative sample of industries and geographies that characterize global industrial heat,electric,and process energy needs.The sample prioritizes the five highest-emitting segments in traditional industry,as shown in FIG.9.1313 While typically not categorized as belonging to industrial emissions,Appendix 1 also highlights data centers as an example of how LDES can support decarbonization of electric loads that require uninterrupted 24/7 baseload electricityFIGURE 8Long Duration Energy Storage categoriesSource:LDES Council,Roland Berger DescriptionAdvantagesTypesEnergy storage systems generating electrical energy from chemical reactionsSolutions stocking thermal energy by heating or cooling a storage mediumChemical energy storage systems store electricity through the creation of chemical bondsSolutions that store energy as a kinetic,gravitational potential or compression/pressure medium Flow Metal anode Non-metal Chemical Storage Sensible heat Latent heat Thermochemical Green hydrogen Methane Ammonia Methanol Compressed air energy storage Liquid air energy storage Pumped hydro storage Gravity based storage Liquid CO2 Flexibility Declining long-term costs Wide operating range Potential range of footprint and RTE with relative higher C-rates Technology options either have inexpensive materials or require less expensive materials than LiB No degradation Cycling throughout the day Modular options available No degradation Proven via established technologies(pumped hydro)Considered safe Attractive economicsElectrochemicalThermalMechanical16 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage36.2%Industrial65.8%Non-industrial10.2ment3.4%Food and tobacco2.4%Non-ferrous metals1.7%Machinery2.0%Paper,pulp&printing19.7%Chemical&petrochemical24.5%Iron&Steel36.1%Other industrialCurrent LDES technologies can be applied to both on-and off-grid industry;and electric and heat applications.The opportunities offered by LDES can be grouped into three categories described in Figure 10,which are used to structure the subsequent chapters of this report(FIG.10).Off-grid electric:Remote industrial applications that are not connected to the grid,where LDES can enable the transition from fossil fuels to intermittent renewable generation.(Case study:Mining)Easy-to-electrify heat:Industrial sectors with heat requirements that can be electrified using existing technologies.(Case studies:Chemicals,Food)Hard-to-electrify heat:Sectors where electrification is currently limited by process requirements,such as,the need for high temperatures(1,000C)or radiative heat.(Case studies:Steel,Cement)FIGURE 9Global greenhouse gas emissions by sector and industrial segment,2016Source:Our World In Data,IEA,Roland BergerGlobal emissions by sector%Five highest-emitting segments Focus segments for report2/3 of industrial emissions are from heatGlobal industrial process and energy emissions14 Data center emissions are not included in global industrial process emissions17 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageFIGURE 10Categorization of industrial sectors by dimension as examined in this report15Source:Roland BergerMETHODOLOGYThe first step of the analysis involved characterizing the prioritized industrial segments.This included establishing electricity and heat needs,operating constraints and considerations,energy market and regulatory conditions,and sustainability goals for each industry using published research and expert interviews.To account for geographic variations,selected segments were examined across eight countries Germany,the United Kingdom,South Africa,the United Arab Emirates,India,Australia,Chile,and the United States.These were selected based on their respective industrial footprint,current and future energy mix,and commercial strategies of LDES technology providers.The findings are laid out in the Global Relevance sections of the applicable chapters.FIG.11Off GridElectricityHeatEasyHardOn GridChapter 3Off-grid electric16MiningData centersFood and ChemicalsSteel and CementAppendix 1Grid-connected electric15 Off Grid heat is a viable application;however,it is not examined in this reportLDES technologies evaluated by caseElectrochemicalThermalChemicalMechanical16 Focus in Chapter 3 is primary extraction,not mineral processing17 Heat required by Alumina industry sector relates to Chapter 4 Easy-to-electrify heatIndustry segments highlighted below were selected to be representative of each category for case studies;in the real world,industry segments may have energy demands that do not match this categorizationChapter 4Easy-to-electrify heat17Chapter 5Hard-to-electrify heat18 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageFor each industry segment,one country was then selected for a case study.The choice was based on the prominence of the industry in the country,the countrys global share of that industry,and the countrys decarbonization targets.From this,more detailed information on specific LDES applications across each of the three focus sectors was gathered.Publicly available LDES technology costs(and cost declines through 2040)and performance parameters were then validated based on LDES Council member review and input.Leading decarbonization alternatives were also identified and their costs and performance parameters collected.FIG.12Next,a technoeconomic analysis was conducted to determine each decarbonization solutions economic attractiveness from the standpoint of project economics and carbon reductions.This United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomSouth AfricaIndiaUAEAustraliaChileFIGURE 11Focus countriesSource:Roland Berger19 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageSource:Roland BergerFIGURE 12LDES can be part of a larger portfolio of industrial decarbonization technologies,including boilers,heat pumps and SMRsElectric Boiler Low capital costs Limited applicability due to operational temperature range of 100C-500CHydrogen Boiler Economic feasibility dependent on access to large supply of green hydrogen at low costElectric Heat Pump Higher capital costs than LDES Limited applicability due to operational temperature range of 100C-150CLi-Ion Battery Weaker cost position compared to LDES due to augmentation and oversizing costs stemming from degradation Supply chain risks and environmental impacts from mining relating to rare earth mineral componentsSmall Modular Reactor Commercialization expected in the 2030s Feasibility challenges due to regulatory,siting,and potential customer acceptance complaintsThe diversity and adaptability of LDES technologies allow them to complement the options in the table abovewas done by comparing each segments status quo costs and emissions.All case studies in this report represent a 99 %reduction of status quo emissions(scope of emissions specified by case).18 Each solutions current and future economic attractiveness over a 20-year period was then analyzed for all the representative geographies,using project start years of 2023,2030,and 2040.The technoeconomic analysis yielded a cost of abatement by solution for each of the three time periods,representative segments,and geographies.FIG.13Variations in the findings for the eight countries reflect differences in:input retail and wholesale electric prices;PPA prices;REC prices;grid emissions factors;solar and wind generation profiles and costs(capital and operating);fuel prices(diesel,natural gas,green hydrogen,nuclear);outage frequency and durations:subsidies;and carbon prices.All of these inputs were forecasted to 206019.The results of the analysis underlined the critical role of a number of variables,including the evolution of electricity markets and policy regimes 18 It is important to note that the marginal cost of abating e.g.,the first 5%of emissions is significantly lower than the marginal cost of abating the last 5%of emissions 19 Reflecting 20-year period analyzed from a project start in 204020 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storagecould alter the cost of abatement in the future.We also performed sensitivities on a selected set of these variables for each case to reflect how potential scenarios could alter analysis results.See Appendix 2 for further detail on the techno-economic analysis methodology and inputs.FIGURE 13Simplified schematic of modelNote:See Appendix 2 for details on variables considered in analysis and for detailed model schematicLong Duration Energy Storage solutionCurrent state energy solutionCustomer energy requirementsTechnoeconomic analysisCost of abatementSource:Roland BergerCountry-specific energy attributes21 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageOff-grid electric KEY FINDINGSThe off-grid industrial segment presents an immediately attractive application for LDES due to the cost advantage of renewables over fossil fuels1.LDES technologies support electrification and decarbonization of off-grid sites,such as mines,by enabling them to shift from fossil fuels to renewables,while maintaining reliable supply2.There are few current alternatives to LDES for decarbonizing and maintaining reliability off-grid;LDES is cheaper than lithium-ion storage,depending on site conditions and performance needs3.The business case for switching to off-grid LDES is already very attractive in several mining regions,especially where fuel prices are high and where solar and wind resources are abundant0322 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageOVERVIEW AND APPLICATIONSOff-grid refers to facilities that are not connected to a central power grid,and instead rely on power generated locally.Industrial off-grid applications are most common in the mining sector.They are also found in oil and gas exploration and extraction,and remote agricultural facilities such as dairy farms.LDES technologies support electrification and decarbonization of off-grid facilities by enabling them to switch from fossil fuels to a reliable,renewables-powered supply.When paired with renewables,LDES enables full decarbonization of electricity supply,an important goal of many companies.Decarbonization of electricity supply also allows off-grid facilities to decarbonize vehicles through electrification.The mining industry is the biggest potential user of off-grid LDES,with many attractive applications.For example,renewables-based LDES is capable of powering equipment and vehicles involved in processes such as comminution,digging,drilling,blasting,and ventilation,replacing diesel fuel and power generated from natural gas.Specific applications vary according to the quality of renewable resources.FIG.14While electric mining vehicles and equipment are nascent,they are already available and are near parity with diesel counterparts.The rapid scaling of electric mining vehicles production,as well as cost declines,are expected over time.VALUE PROPOSITION AND FEASIBILITYThe economics of fully decarbonizing an off-grid site with LDES plus renewables are already very attractive due to the relative cost of renewables compared to diesel.The use of liquid fuel is not only expensive but also highly carbon intensive.For example,diesel has an emissions rate of approximately 75 kg CO2 per mmbtu,about 150%the emissions rate of natural gas and 80%the emissions rate of coal.FIGURE 14LDES solution for off grid electric(mining)Source:Roland BergerFrom:280k tons CO2 per yearTo:Net zeroDiesel generatorDieselLDESMine operationsMine operationsRenewable energyVehicles/machineryElectrified vehicles/machinery23 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageThis does not include the additional emissions resulting from fuel deliveries,which can be on a daily or weekly basis.The case for LDES should become even more financially attractive into the future,given the expected increases in diesel prices and anticipated improvements in LDES costs and performance.An off-grid mine in Australia,for example,might expect to incur USD 3 billion in opex over 20 years,use 28 million gallons of diesel per year,and emit 300 k tons CO2 per year.However,given a diesel price of USD 6 per gallon,attractive renewable resources,and a mining operation that can be adapted to electrified transport and processing equipment,the mine could save 76%on its opex with a switch to renewable generation and LDES.Averaging across all electric LDES technologies,it could achieve full decarbonization at a savings-not a cost-of USD 609 per ton of CO2 abated.Electric LDES technologies therefore support a strong case for use as electrification and decarbonization tools,and are the most economic option today.They are better suited to long-duration applications(8 hours)than,for example,lithium-ion cells,and are more economically attractive than lithium-ion by avoiding additional costs associated with oversizing and augmentation.A typical LDES resource duty cycle for the off grid mine is illustrated in the figure below.The resource is able to charge during the day and support night time mine operations with LDES and wind energy.FIG.15Small modular reactors(SMR)have a role to play in electrifi-cation and decarbonization,but are not yet available(expected in the 2030s).In addition,SMRs may not be feasible at all locations due to regulatory,siting,and customer acceptance constraints.FIGURE 15Indicative daily(July)energy production and LDES dispatch for off-grid mining,AustraliaEnergyEnergyCurtailmentCombined solar and wind output MWLoad MWLDES balance MWh HrRenewables output and demand MWLDES state of charge MWh150700125650100600755505050025450400123456789101112131415161718192021222324Source:Roland Berger24 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageGLOBAL RELEVANCECountries with sizable off-grid mining industries present the best off-grid opportunities for LDES.These include Australia,Canada,and countries in South America and Africa,like Chile and South Africa.The economics of LDES for off-grid power applications are globally favorable,with the case varying according to local fossil fuel costs,renewable costs and resources,and carbon taxes or policy support.For example,for every dollar of carbon tax,the cost of abatement reduces by a dollar per ton of CO2.ENABLERSLDES is already an economically attractive decarbonization solution for off-grid industry.However,subsidies can complicate the case for or against it.In some countries,there may be countervailing price signals such as subsidies or other support for fossil-fuel-driven equipment.As the case for LDES is strongly tied to fossil fuel prices,fossil fuel subsidies weaken the case;conversely,carbon taxes or subsidies for decarbonization bolster the case.Electrifying power from diesel generators and diesel vehicles/machinery(off grid)The case:Off-grid mine in Western Australia.Brownfield development of renewables plus LDES for decarbonization of all energy consumption.Status quo:The mine uses 28 million gallons of diesel p.a.to fuel vehicles(40%)and generate power(60%,or 33 MWe).Diesel price starts at USD 6/gallon and escalates over time.The mine is expected to incur USD 3 billion in opex and emit 5.6 million tons of CO2 over 20 years.See Appendix 4 for details.LDES solution:Vehicles are electrified and power decarbonized through 210-230 MWe renewables and 27-54 MWe of 24-hour LDES(dependent on the LDES technology).LDES enables 10ditional fuel switching compared to renewables only as LDES allows time-shifting of renewables to periods when solar and wind generation drops off.Emissions abatement:The mine is able to abate 99%of emissions,equaling 5.6 million tons of CO2 over 20 years(or 279k tons CO2 p.a.).Economics:LDES supports electrification and decarbonization of the mine,resulting in a 76%reduction in opex.The saving from mechanical-only LDES technologies is USD 594/ton CO2.The highest value comes from switching from expensive diesel to renewables LDES-only contribution is USD 54/ton CO2Outlook:Net savings improve by 40%through 2040,driven by rising diesel price and declining LDES costsGeographies:Renewables LDES helps to decarbonize off-grid mining profitably in each of the analyzed countries,with economics varying based on:Fuel cost differences(primary driver)Carbon taxes Renewables costs and resourcesCASE STUDY:MINING25 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageAlternatives:Electric LDES technologies support a strong electrification and decarbonization case and are the most economic options explored that are currently available.In 2023,lithium-ion is less economically attractive than all LDES technologies,with a 6%higher cost of decarbonizationFIGURE 16Case study:Off-grid mining,Australia renewable energy and electric LDES solution,2030 Real 2023 USD/ton CO2 abatedSource:Roland BergerElectrificationLDESLDES only is USD 54 per tonRenewable energy600500400300200100-1000-200EVs CAPEX144 OPEX (incl.diesel gen.,ICE,EV)17RE CAPEXNegative discounted cash flowPositive discounted cash flowTotal discounted cash flow20 Diesel fuel used for both ICE vehicles and diesel generator;diesel savings attributed to each technology based on%of load met directly by each technology69RE OPEX3 Diesel expense from RE19738LDES CAPEX27LDES OPEX2 Diesel expense from LDES2083Total NPV59426 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageEasy-to-electrify heat04KEY FINDINGSLDES is an economically attractive solution for industrial firms seeking to decarbonize heat or improve the reliability of their electric supply1.In heat applications,LDES makes the most sense where temperatures between 150C and 500C are required2.The business case for LDES is most attractive in places where customers are exposed to high and volatile electricity prices(such as Germany),and where reliability of supply is a challenge(such as South Africa)3.The case for LDES is expected to improve through 2040 due to the falling cost of LDES solutions,increasing price volatility and deterioration in grid reliability 4.Key enablers are long-term contracts which enable the amortization of investments over 15-30 years and market/regulatory encouragement of industry to procure 24/7 renewablesDriving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage27 OVERVIEW AND APPLICATIONSEasy-to-electrify heat includes a wide range of sectors with heat requirements that can be electrified using existing technologies(for example,electric boilers and heat pumps).Processes in these sectors typically utilize heat in the form of steam or hot air,with temperature requirements between 100C and 500C.Half of global industrial heat production falls within the Easy-to-electrify segment.Higher-temperature sectors such as steel and cement make up the remaining 50%(see Chapter 6).Facilities that fall within the this segment need not only fossil fuels to supply heat(for example,natural gas boilers),but also electricity from the grid to supply adjacent manufacturing processes,control systems,HVAC,21 and lighting.This means that heat demand usually goes hand-in-hand with electricity demand,which also needs to be decarbonized.In many sectors requiring process heat,reliability is vital.However,costs relating to both lost inventory and lost production,but also damaged equipment22 yield a very high value of lost load(VOLL)in these sectors.This increases significantly at longer durations.Thermal LDES,in conjunction with complementary technologies such as e-boilers,enables electrification of low-to-medium temperature heat(100C to 500C),facilitates decarbonization of electricity supply,and ensures reliability of supply.For this analysis,thermal LDES was coupled with an e-boiler,though in some cases LDES technologies are capable of providing heat without one.23 FIG.1721 Heating,Ventilation,and Air Conditioning systems 22 For example,if an outage were to cause a chemical to cool and solidify inside piping and cause permanent damage 23 Meaning,in this analysis,thermal LDES has a 1-to-1 charge-discharge ratio;in some cases,thermal LDES technologies can be configured with higher charge-discharge ratios,e.g.,2-to-1 or 3-to-1;see Figure 21 for a thermal LDES standalone 3-to-1 charge-discharge ratio configuration that incurs a 15%higher capexFIGURE 17LDES solution for easy to electrify heat(food/chemicals)24,25From:150 to 220k tons of CO2 per yearTo:Net ZeroNatural gas boilerIndustrial process heatIndustrial process heatRenewable EnergyMedium-pressure steamMedium-pressure steamElectric boilerLDES24 This case is relevant to the digestion process in alumina refineries25 This schematic is not relevant for the thermal LDES standalone 3-to-1 charge-discharge ratio configuration presented in Figure 2128 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageThis is especially the case when temperatures outside the operational range of high-temperature heat pumps(100-150C)are required.Both e-boilers and electric heat pumps are readily available.Due to the high lost load costs,there is potential for a complementary relationship between on-site thermal energy storage technologies and front-of-the-meter,100 hour electric LDES technologies in a scenario where grid outages become more frequent and longer in duration due to climate change and aging infrastructure.VALUE PROPOSITION AND FEASIBILITYThe economics of solutions leveraging LDES to electrify processes are primarily contingent on electricity costs price volatility and availability of dynamic price signals and avoided lost load costs.In many applications,LDES can enable electrification of low-to-medium temperature steam and hot air at lower cost than other alternatives.Additionally,in many applications,LDES solutions are ready to be implemented sooner than other technologies.LDES improves electrification economics by decreasing the cost of abatement by 10%to 20%compared to a scenario where LDES is not utilized.Project economics are most sensitive to four key variables:lost load cost savings(related to outage count and duration);natural gas prices;carbon taxes;and bill savings(tied to grid volatility).Increasing any of these variables would enhance LDES feasibility in the future,reducing cost of abatement by 10-65%.SMRs could be a feasible alternative for this segment in the future,assuming the technology achieves anticipated cost reductions and commercialization timelines.Nearer term,however,thermal energy storage technologies appear to be the most feasible and cost-effective solution for decarbonized heat in the Easy-to-electrify heat segment with their capability to both provide heat and firm intermittent renewables supply.GLOBAL RELEVANCELDES presents economically attractive opportunities in countries with industry that requires low-to-medium temperature heat,albeit still with a cost of abatement to overcome.This includes low-to-medium temperature heat demand in,for example,chemical,food,paper,and several other industrial segments highlighted in Figure 9.These segments total energy demand(including electricity and heat)account for up to 41%of global industrial emissions.In particular,LDES improves the economics through avoided lost load costs in regions with very long outages(for example,countries with unreliable grids like South Africa)of storing electricity/heat for up to 100 hours.LDES economics are also strong in regions where the technology can mitigate high carbon taxes and high natural gas prices,and where LDES maximizes bill savings due to high and volatile power prices.High natural gas prices and carbon taxes along with comparatively low electricity prices in the UK make electrification there particularly economically attractive,for example.The countrys high electricity price volatility and the potential for high bill savings add to LDESs economic attractiveness.Access to wholesale instead of retail electric prices lowers the final cost of abatement by 60%to 186 dollars per ton of carbon abated,see Figure 18.This is because higher volatility for wholesale versus retail prices enables the LDES resource to provide greater value through taking advantage of time-based arbitrage of wholesale power prices.29 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageEconomics of electrification with LDES are sensitive to natural gas prices due to avoided natural gas expenses.At a natural gas price of 10 dollars per mmbtu,final cost of abatement for a thermal LDES standalone configuration is 95 dollars per ton of carbon abated.However,at a 75%higher natural gas price of 18 dollars per mmbtu,the result is instead a savings of 13 dollars per ton of carbon abated.For details,see Figure 19.ENABLERSCosts of switching energy and aversion to change will prove key barriers to LDES.This is especially the case in regions where electrification will prove expensive due to the relatively high cost of electricity compared to conventional fuels,and where infrastructure upgrade costs are elevated.In some industries,industrial producers may be able to pass on the increased cost of decarbonizing via electrification to their customers who are willing to pay a green premium.Obviously,establishing the equivalent of a carbon tax would also provide a similar incentive for decarbonization.Additionally,policy that establishes dynamic price signals is a key enabler to improve LDES economics(critical to bill savings).FIGURE 18Cost of abatement sensitivity on wholesale electricity market access Food,United States26Source:Roland BergerSource:Roland BergerUSD/ton of CO2Without wholesale electric market access With wholesale electric market access479186-61%USD/ton of CO295USD 10 per mmbtu28USD 18 per mmbtu28-13-108FIGURE 19Cost of abatement sensitivity on natural gas price Chemicals,Germany2726 Overall cost of abatement figures shown here relate to Figure 22 and Figure 2327 Overall cost of abatement figures shown here relate to Figure 2128 USD per mmbtu natural gas prices are 2023 starting points,escalated over timeCost of abatement figures shown here relate to thermal LDES standalone system with 3-to-1 charge-discharge ratio depicted in Figure 21.Higher charge capacity enables system to provide higher electricity bill savings than a 1-to-1 configuration(paired-with an e-boiler)due to greater opportunity for time-based arbitrage of wholesale power prices.As a result of reduced electricity bills and a 75%increase in natural gas prices,this case results in a savings per ton of carbon abated.30 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageElectrifying thermal energy for medium-temperature steam from a natural gas boiler(grid connected)The case:Brownfield development of an e-boiler paired with thermal LDES29 to serve the heat needs of a chemicals plant in Germany with 400C,200 bar steam demand.Status quo:The plant produces steam using a natural gas boiler(100 MWt demand).See Appendix 4 for details.LDES solution:Steam production is electrified with an 100 MWt e-boiler,with a 100 MWt,24-hour thermal LDES to provide reliability and electricity load shifting.Storage of heat yields the highest savings for facilities electrifying heat via electric boilers,as opposed to storage of power only(prior to producing heat).Emissions abatement:The plant is able to abate 100%of scope 1 emissions related to heat demand,equal to 3 million tons of CO2 over 20 years(or 154k tons CO2 p.a.).Economics:LDES supports electrification and decarbonization of the chemical plant.The result is a 30%increase in opex.The cost of abatement using only an e-boiler is USD 240/ton CO2 abated,but LDES reduces that cost by USD 31/ton CO2.The largest cost contributor is the higher cost of electricity relative to natural gas USD 144/ton CO2 carbon tax savings mitigate some of the costs associated with electrification By shifting electric load,LDES helps reduce the electricity bill by USD 141/ton CO2(28%savings).It also allows the plant to avoid USD 13/ton CO2 lost load costs associated with grid outages(VOLL:USD 5/kWh).Higher charge capacity of 3-to-1 system depicted in Figure 2129 enables system to provide higher electricity bill savings than a 1-to-1 configuration(paired with an e-boiler),incurring a capex that is only 15%higher.Due to greater opportunity for time-based arbitrage of wholesale power prices using higher charge capacity,bill savings rise to USD 261/ton CO2(51%savings).Outlook:The costs of electrification with LDES improve by 13%through 2040,as fuel prices and carbon taxes escalate and as LDES costs decline.The benefit from thermal LDES load-shifting also improves as LDES technology costs decline,the technology scales and electricity prices become more volatile.Geographies:The highest LDES-related savings occur in countries with unreliable grids,volatile electricity prices(wholesale or large differentials in TOU utility rates),high natural gas prices,and high carbon prices.Of the countries assessed for this report,LDES leads to the highest bill savings in Germany and the United States,where customers are exposed to wholesale price volatility and time-of-use rates respectively In the United Arab Emirates,by contrast,there are no bills savings due to very little arbitrage opportunity in electric rates CASE STUDY:CHEMICALS29 Figure 20 shows thermal LDES paired with an e-boiler and Figure 21 shows thermal LDES standalone,relating to sensitivity shown in Figure 19.Thermal LDES system shown in Figure 20 has a 1-to-1 charge-discharge ratio while system shown in Figure 21 has a 3-to-1 charge-discharge ratio31 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage Electricity price volatility is often found in countries with higher renewables penetration,evidenced by higher price volatility in Germany and the United States compared to the United Arab Emirates and South Africa Alternatives:Thermal LDES supporting an e-boiler is currently one of the most economic options for decarbonizing medium-temperature steam.Depending on gas and electricity prices,a TES(without an e-boiler)could even be a better economic option than staying on gas,even without a carbon tax.FIGURE 20Case study:Chemicals,Germany e-boiler vs.e-boiler and thermal LDES,2030 Real 2023 USD/ton CO2 abatedE-boiler Thermal LDESLDES only is USD 31 per tonE-boiler only-150-50-200-250-300-1000-550-500-450-400-3505121441444136240115E-boiler CAPEX Electricity bill Value of lost load Natural Gas savings Carbon Tax OPEXTotal NPV Value of lost loadLDES CAPEX OPEX Electricity billTotal NPVNegative discounted cash flowPositive discounted cash flowTotal discounted cash flow914113209Source:Roland Berger32 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage Green hydrogen boilers are not currently economically feasible due to high green hydrogen prices in Germany(7 USD/kg).However,these are expected to improve dramatically SMRs are economically competitive but not yet commercially available,and subject to regulatory,siting and customer acceptance constraints Other alternatives,including CCUS and lithium-ion batteries,can contribute to decarbonization but face feasibility and supply chain challengesNegative discounted cash flowPositive discounted cash flowTotal discounted cash flowFIGURE 21Case study:Chemicals,Germany thermal LDES standalone,203030 Real 2023 USD/ton CO2 abatedSource:Roland BergerTotal NPV OPEX Value of lost load Electricity billLDES CAPEX Natural Gas savingsElectricity bill savings Carbon TaxLDES only for entire project is USD(95)per tonThermal LDES standalone-150-50-200-250-300-1000-550-650-500-600-450-400-35095003151213214426114430 Relates to sensitivity shown in Figure 1931 Delta OPEX value rounded from USD(0.084)per ton to 0,meaning there was a small net spend on OPEX relative to status quo33 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageElectrifying thermal energy for low-temperature steam from a natural gas boiler(grid connected)The case:The electricity and heat demand(and scope 1,2 emissions)at a food plant in California32,United States,with low-temperature,low-pressure steam demand.Brownfield development of an e-boiler with thermal LDES.Status quo:The plant sources electricity from the grid(38 MWe)and produces steam using a natural gas boiler(68 MWt).See Appendix 4 for details.LDES solution:Steam production is electrified with a 68 MWt e-boiler and a 68 MWt,24-hour thermal LDES to provide reliability and electricity load shifting.For facilities electrifying heat via e-boilers,storage of heat yields the highest savings,as opposed to storage of power only(prior to producing heat).Emissions abatement:The plant is able to abate 100%of scope 1 and 2 emissions related to heat and electricity demand,equaling 4.4 million tons of CO2 over 20 years(or 220k tons CO2 p.a.).Economics:LDES supports electrification and decarbonization of the food plant.The result is a 110%increase in opex.The cost of abatement is USD 582/ton CO2 abated,but LDES reduces that cost by USD 103/ton CO2.The largest cost contributor is the higher cost of electricity relative to natural gas USD 33/ton CO2 carbon tax savings do not cover the additional costs By shifting electricity load,LDES helps reduce the electricity bill by USD 115/ton CO2(19%savings)and allows the plant to avoid USD 26/ton CO2 lost load costs associated with grid outagesOutlook:The costs of electrification improve by 11%through 2040,as fuel prices and carbon taxes rise.The benefit from thermal LDES load-shifting also improves as LDES technology costs decline,the technology scales and electricity prices become more volatile.Geographies:The highest LDES-related savings occur in countries with unreliable grids,volatile electricity prices(wholesale or large deltas in TOU utility rates),high natural gas prices,and high carbon prices.LDES offers the highest bill savings in Germany and the United States,where customers are exposed to wholesale price volatility and time-of-use rates In the United Arab Emirates,by contrast,there are no bill savings due to very little arbitrage opportunity in electricity rates Alternatives:Thermal LDES supporting an e-boiler is currently one of the most economic options for decarbonizing low-temperature steam where electric heat pumps are not feasible.Standalone e-heat pumps have the strongest economics in geographies with climates that impair the performance of heat pumps(for example,cold weather climates);electric boilers paired with LDES represent the next best alternative Other alternatives,as described in the chemicals case study,also exist but face cost,feasibility or commercialization challengesCASE STUDY:FOOD32 As a result of this case being in California,cost of abatement is higher than in other locations(California has among the highest electricity costs in the United States)34 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageFIGURE 22Case study:Food,United States e-boiler vs.e-boiler and thermal LDES,utility tariff,2030 Real 2023 USD/ton CO2 abatedE-boiler Thermal LDESLDES only is USD 103 per tonE-boiler only-150-50-200-250-300-1000-550-650-500-600-450-400-3502 OPEX592 Electricity bill3E-boiler CAPEX29 Natural Gas savings33 Carbon Tax34LDES CAPEX OPEX Electricity bill Value of lost load17 Value of lost load35REC expenseTotal NPV582Total NPV411526479Source:Roland BergerNegative discounted cash flowPositive discounted cash flowTotal discounted cash flow35 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage33 Delta OPEX value rounded from USD(0.038)per ton to 0,meaning there was a small net spend on OPEX relative to status quoFIGURE 23Case study:Food,United States thermal LDES standalone,utility tariff,2030 Real 2023 USD/ton CO2 abatedLDES only for entire project is USD 479 per tonThermal LDES standalone-150-50-200-250-300-1000-550-650-700-500-600-450-400-350 OPEX59239 Electricity bill115 Natural Gas savings9 Carbon TaxLDES CAPEX Electricity bill savings Value of lost load35REC expenseTotal NPV2933479Source:Roland BergerNegative discounted cash flowPositive discounted cash flowTotal discounted cash flow033Figure 23 presents a sensitivity to the e-boiler and thermal LDES case presented in Figure 22.In this case we can see that,holding all other assumptions and inputs constant,the cost of abatement from a 3-1 thermal LDES configuration at tariffed electric rates is unchanged due to a lack of price signals,lack of energy price volatility.36 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageFIGURE 24Food,United States e-boiler vs.e-boiler and thermal LDES,wholesale tariff 203034 Real 2023 USD/ton CO2 abatedE-boiler Thermal LDESLDES only is USD 24 per tonE-boiler only-80-40-20-100-120-140-600-240-280-220-260-200-180-1602542933217321034E-boiler CAPEX Electricity bill Value of lost load Natural Gas savings Carbon Tax OPEXTotal NPV Value of lost loadLDES CAPEX OPEX Electricity billTotal NPV43626186Source:Roland BergerNegative discounted cash flowPositive discounted cash flowTotal discounted cash flow34 Relates to sensitivity shown in Figure 1837 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage35 Delta OPEX value rounded from USD(0.038)per ton to 0,meaning there was a small net spend on OPEX relative to status quoFIGURE 25Case study:Food,United States thermal LDES standalone,wholesale tariff,2030 Real 2023 USD/ton CO2 abatedLDES only for entire project is USD 128 per tonThermal LDES standalone-150-50-200-250-1000-300 OPEX25439 Electricity bill94 Natural Gas savings9 Carbon TaxLDES CAPEX Electricity bill savings Value of lost load0REC expenseTotal NPV29128Source:Roland Berger03533Figure 25 presents a sensitivity to the e-boiler and thermal LDES case presented in Figure 24.In this case we can see that,holding all other assumptions and inputs constant,a 3-1 thermal LDES configuration reduces the cost of abatement by another USD 58 per ton of CO2.Negative discounted cash flowPositive discounted cash flowTotal discounted cash flow38 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage05KEY FINDINGSLDES can already support partial abatement in high-emitting and hard-to-abate industrial sectors such as steel and cement,and has the potential to support net-zero energy1.The large,high-emitting steel and cement sectors are considered hard-to-electrify due to their high temperature requirements(1,000C),the need for radiative heat and integration requirements2.While cost barriers exist,medium-term opportunities for thermal LDES technologies could result in a significant reduction of global emissions3.Longer-term opportunities for LDES applications require technical improvements and greater scalability but could support complete fuel switching as they focus on the most energy-and emissions-intensive processesHard-to-electrify heatLDES offers game-changing longer-term opportunities in steel and cement 39 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageOVERVIEW AND APPLICATIONSTogether,the steel and cement sectors account for 7%of global emissions(25%and 10%of global industrial emissions,respectively),making them a policymaker focus.The sectors are hard-to-electrify,meaning they cannot readily be electrified due to high temperature requirements(1,000C),the need for radiative heat and process integration requirements.High costs and a potential lack of scalability across steel and cement plants are another barrier.Current LDES technologies can contribute to limited decarbonization of steel and cement in the medium term(the next five years)through waste heat recovery and preheating36.However,they have far greater decarbonization potential in the long run(10 years )as costs decline and integration barriers are reduced.LDES could ultimately support full energy decarbonization of cement through the electrification of kilns.36 For example,inlet material for steelFIGURE 26Overview of potential LDES applications in existing steel-making routes(simplified)Source:Roland BergerSinter plantIron orePrimary routeSecondary route37 By-product off gases(coke oven gas,blast furnace gas,basic oxygen furnace gas)are released as part of the chemical process in steel manufacturing and contribute a large portion of steel-making CO2 emissionsCoalCoke plantCokeBlast furnaceBOFPig ironScrapScrapO2Crude steelCrude steelScrapPellet plantIron sinter/pelletsElectricityHeat supplement with hot gas in existing blast furnace Thermal LDES converts grid electricity to heat and/or stores heat,blown as hot gas into blast furnaceWaste heat recycling waste heat from by-product off gases37 recovered,stored in Thermal LDES,recycled for other operational processesHeat supply for other processes not directly related to steel-making-Thermal LDES converts grid electricity to heat to supply non-steel-making processes,e.g.,moving steel with steam drives,melting,shapingHeat supply for other processes not directly related to steel-making Thermal LDES converts grid electricity to heat to supply non-steel-making processes,e.g.,moving steel with steam drives,melting,shapingLDES applicationWaste heat recycling waste heat from by-product off gases37 recovered,stored in Thermal LDES,recycled for other operational processesEAF40 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageSTEEL:VALUE PROPOSITION AND FEASIBILITYThermal LDES could support incremental abatement in both major steel-making routes the primary route using blast furnaces(BOF),which accounts for 75%of total steel production,and the secondary route using electric arc furnaces(EAF).Applications in the“hard-to-electrify”steel-making process are in early pilot or conceptual phase,with commercialization expected in the 2030s.They include waste heat recovery and supplementing heat supply with hot gas.Thermal LDES can also support electrification of lower-temperature heat applications(as discussed in Chapter 4)outside of core steel-making.FIG.26LDES technologies also offer attractive solutions in driving partial decarbonization of the steel-making processes beyond the two routes.Depending on the decarbonization pathway,they can continue to provide supplemental heat in furnaces,recycle waste heat and supply heat for other processes.Several other decarbonization technologies exist in this segment.The two main alternative pathways to decarbonize steel production are CCUS for BOF or direct reduced iron(DRI).The DRI process uses natural gas or hydrogen to reduce iron ore pellets to direct reduced iron(or sponge iron)which is then fed into an electric arc furnace.Most technologies in these areas,including the use of hydrogen,are not well developed but have considerable potential.For example,CCUS systems can capture steel plant emissions and inject CO2 into the ground.However,they cannot achieve full decarbonization as the CCUS process captures most(90%)but not all CO2 emissions.FIGURE 27Overview of potential LDES applications in a decarbonized steel-making route(simplified)Source:Subject-matter experts:industry and LDES;academic studies;Roland Berger38 By-product off gases(coke oven gas,blast furnace gas,basic oxygen furnace gas)are released as part of the chemical process in steel manufacturing and contribute a large portion of steel-making CO2 emissionsLDES applicationGreen electricityIron orePellet plantIron ore pelletsShaft furnaceSponge ironEAFCarbonSlag,CO2Liquid steelElectrolyzerGreen energyO2H2H2OScrapWaste heat recycling waste heat from by-product off gases38 recovered,stored in Thermal LDES,recycled for other operational processesHeat supplement with hot gas in existing shaft furnace Thermal LDES converts electricity to heat and/or stores heat,blown as hot gas into blast furnaceHeat supply for other processes not directly related to steel-making Thermal LDES converts grid electricity to heat to supply for non-steel-making processes,e.g.,moving steel with steam drives,melting,shapingOne alternative reduction process:H2-based direct reduced iron Shaft furnace route41 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageSTEEL APPLICATIONSWaste heat recovery:LDES solution:Waste heat is recovered,stored in thermal LDES and recycled for other lower-temperature applications such as preheating scrap(reduces the level of heat required for scrap melting in the electric arc furnace).Waste heat recovery eliminates some emissions and can generate electricity for the plant.Emission and economic impact:Thermal LDES offers an attractive opportunity as the steel-making process is extremely demanding regarding the amount and temperature of required heat,and that up to 50%of input energy could be lost during the process.An early-stage project by Tata Steel demonstrates that“a 500 MWht thermal LDES can yield annual savings of 2.3 million GJ of natural gas and 130,000 tons39 of emitted CO2.”40 Outlook:Steel-makers are already working with thermal LDES providers on early stage pilots and demonstrations through 2030 for waste heat recovery;scaling of waste heat recovery technology likely to occur post 2030.Preheating processes using thermal LDES:LDES solution:Thermal LDES converts electricity to heat and then stores this heat before blowing it directly into the blast furnace.Emission and economic impact:The blast furnace operation accounts for 60-75%of emissions in the overall steel-making process.Heat from thermal LDES can reduce use of fuel and emissions incrementally(total achievable reduction of less than 5%),limited by minimum required levels of coke and coal reductant for chemical reactions.Outlook:As LDES technologies will need to be capable of reaching extremely high temperatures,demonstrations and pilots will likely only be ready in the medium term,with commercialization in the next 10 years.the shaft furnace and supply heat for non-core steel-making processes.FIG.27STEEL:OUTLOOK FOR LDES TECHNOLOGIESAs well as standalone use,LDES can improve the economic performance of complementary decarbonization technologies if integrated into steel plant design.For example,LDES can play a significant,complementary role in the green hydrogen-based DRI process.Here,thermal LDES has the potential to recover waste heat for other operations,supplement heat with hot gas in 39 Annual CO2 emissions at the facility are approximately 12.6 million tons per year.40 https:/www.process- Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage80Slcination process34%Fossil fuelsPreheater/pre-calciner and kiln produce clinkerFIGURE 28Overview of potential LDES applications in cementSource:Desk research,Roland BergerCEMENT:VALUE PROPOSITION AND FEASIBILITYLike steel,cement decarbonization is challenging due to the need for extremely high production temperatures,and the energy-intensive calcination process(which contributes more than 50%of cement emissions).41 For example,limestone,clay,iron ore and fly ash need to be heated to more than 1,400C in a kiln to produce clinker,which is mixed with limestone and gypsum to produce ground cement.LDES applications in the sector require technical improvement to meet these challenges.However,they have enormous potential as they focus on the most energy-and emission-intensive parts of the process the preheater/pre-calciner and kiln(FIG.28).LDES technologies can also support decarbonization of process heat by providing supplemental heat or electrification of cement kilns.Beyond cement,LDES providers are also exploring other rapidly growing,high-temperature materials-processing segments such as lithium and bauxite ore processing.5%30%3,7511006Raw material preparation into raw millCement production from clinker and final logisticsTotalEnergy MJ/tCO2 kg/tThermal LDES to provide hot gas in existing kilnThermal LDES to provide hot gas in pre-calcinerWaste heat recyclingEnergy stored for e-Kilns41 Calcination process discussed in this section is relevant to alumina refining sector43 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageCEMENT APPLICATIONSWaste heat recovery:LDES solution:Waste heat is recovered,stored in thermal LDES and recycled for other,lower temperature applications or electricity generation.Similar to steel,this application could reduce incremental emissions in the process.Emission and economic impact:Cement production is also a heat-and emission-intensive process,hence waste heat recovery is a promising opportunity for thermal LDES.The impact of this application will vary by plant and by country,as waste heat recovery infrastructure advances and mandates are different across cement-producing countries.Outlook:LDES providers are conducting early pilots and demonstrations through 2030.Hot gas supply in existing kiln and pre-calciner:LDES solution:Thermal LDES converts electricity to heat,stores heat and then blows it as hot gas into a kiln or pre-calciner.Emission and economic impact:If commercialized,this application could be extremely impactful as the kiln and pre-calciner consume 80%of total cement process energy requirements,and account for 87%of total process emissions.Outlook:This application has a medium-term potential for use in pre-calciners and long-term for use in kilns.For kilns:Considerable technological improvement is required to meet the extremely high heat requirements in the kiln.With most LDES players still discussing and examining the application with cement producers,commercial implementation will most likely occur beyond the current decade.For pre-calciners:The lower temperature of required heat(900C)in this application is achievable in the medium term,with a commercial timeline of post 2030.Pilots can be done in with necessary technology and plant integration.Energy storage for e-kiln:LDES solution:LDES technologies store grid electricity to operate electric kilns.Emission and economic impact:This technology can provide zero-emission process heat for kilns and other applications in the materials processing industry up to 1,400-1,500C.Outlook:This application is still largely in the conceptual phase.Significant development will be required to make this technology viable in the long term due to the extremely high energy requirement of electric kilns.44 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageGLOBAL RELEVANCEGlobal steel and cement production is geographically widespread.The top 5 steel producers by production volume are China,India,Japan,the United States,and Russia.The top 5 cement producers are China,India,Vietnam,the United States,and Turkey.Propensity to decarbonize,as well as baseline emissions,vary across countries.Steel and cement emissions impact embodied carbon across the global economy.ENABLERSKey enablers in the segment are mainly policy based.Policies such as carbon pricing and greenhouse gas targets can incentivize or otherwise require cement and steel makers to decarbonize.The commoditized nature of products from these sectors therefore make it important to financially support decarbonization and/or implement carbon border adjustment mechanisms.In addition,as electrification in these sectors increases,it will be important to highlight the need to shift electricity loads and ensure electricity grids can handle the dramatically increased electrical loads through dynamic pricing and network planning.Players in the sectors will look to a suite of technologies,including LDES,to achieve these goals,and will likely require policy-based support to implement them.Specific policy for LDES technologies for high-temperature cement and steel will therefore also need to be developed.Sandboxes and R&D support can enable early demonstrations of both LDES and complementary technologies such as e-kilns.In addition to policy,there is a need to communicate and demonstrate the LDES value proposition to industry,through early engagement and partnerships.Shared learnings within industry can help to accelerate decarbonization and the role of LDES.45 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageSupporting policy mechanismsPolicy solutions for LDES need to encourage adoption and competitiveness06KEY FINDINGSLong duration energy storage technologies require policy support to ensure that industrial users capture the full value of these resources1.The appropriate policy solution for LDES technologies to decarbonize industry varies by industry sector.Solutions fall into three categories:long-term market signals;revenue mechanisms;and technology support and enabling measures2.Off-grid applications are already cost effective and require the least support relative to other applications3.On-grid heat applications that can be electrified today and hard-to-electrify sectors require policies that incentivize industrial customers to electrify their fossil-fueled heat processes and ensure that electric grids can support larger electricity loadsDriving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage46 POLICY SOLUTIONSAccelerating the adoption of LDES technologies for industrial decarbonization requires a broad range of policy solutions.To reflect this,the Long Duration Energy Storage Council has developed a policy framework.It consists of three policy enabling tiers covering long-term market signals,revenue mechanisms and direct technology support and enabling measures.FIG.29Each of the three policy enablers contains a subset of levers that will support industrial decarbonization applications.Their relative importance to individual sectors and regions depends on decarbonization ambitions,market conditions,barriers to adoption and technology readiness.FIG.30FIGURE 29Overview of LDES policy framework42Source:LDES CouncilLong-term market signalsInform the trajectory of the energy systemCarbon pricing&green-house gas reduction targetsProcurement targetsGrid planningRenewable energy targetsPhase-out of fossil fuel subsidiesStorage capacity targetsRevenue mechanismsCap and floorCapacity marketNodal&location pricingRegulated asset baseHourly energy attribute certificates24/7 clean PPAContract for differenceLong term bilateral contract for balancing/ancillary servicesEnhance the viability of projectsTechnology support and enabling measuresGrants and incentivesInvestment de-risk mechanismsSandboxesMarket rulesTargeted tendersTechnology standardsCreate pathways for access and uptake42 For further detail,see LDES Councils“Journey to Net Zero”report:https:/ Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageOFF-GRID ELECTRICLDES is already an economically attractive decarbonization solution for off-grid industry that faces few barriers.Savings are achieved by substituting renewables and LDES technologies for diesel fuel.Policy support in this sector should therefore be related to long-term market signals,specifically to eliminate government support for fossil fuels.Fossil fuel subsidies undermine the case for LDES because the cost-benefit analysis is highly sensitive to the price of diesel.GRID-CONNECTED ELECTRICThe most important levers for on-grid electricity applications are revenue mechanisms,as well as technology support and enabling mechanisms.Grid-connected electricity customers already respond to long-term price signals for the lowest cost electricity they can find.However,policy support is still needed to ensure access to cheap,decarbonized electricity,which is where nodal and locational pricing can be helpful.FIGURE 30Relative importance of LDES policy enablers by sectorSource:Roland BergerLong-term market signalsRevenue mechanismsTechnology supportDetailLDES policy enablersOff-grid electric Elimination of government support for fossil fuels Fossil fuel support undermines decarbonization and LDES economicsHard-to-electrify heat Support enabling development and demonstration of LDES technologies for high-temperature processesGrid-connected electric Wholesale market access with nodal&locational pricing Contract for differences renewable PPAs Market revenue streams to improve LDES economicsEasy-to-electrify heat Transparent electricity price signals for load shifting Contract for differences renewable PPAs Emissions reduction mandates and carbon prices Market revenue streams to improve LDES economics Grid planning to support large,newly-electrified loadsRelative importanceHighLow48 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageEASY-TO-ELECTRIFY HEAT AND HARD-TO-ELECTRIFY HEATPolicy support could be most impactful in enabling LDES to support heat decarbonization.Policies can address industrial customers propensity to electrify process heat and ensure that electric grids can handle the dramatically increased electrical loads from these processes.First,industrial customers need to be motivated to decarbonize,they need transparent electricity price signals to demonstrate the value of load shifting to customers,and they need proof that LDES solutions are a feasible replacement to their incumbent(and trusted)fossil-fueled processes.Policies to support the above include carbon pricing and greenhouse gas targets,nodal and locational pricing and sandboxes,or pilots and demonstrations.Given the price pressure due to the commodity nature of their products,they will also need contracts for differences,to ensure they are made whole for differences between renewable PPA and wholesale energy prices.Policies will also need to encourage electric utilities and transmission operators to prepare for electrification of large industrial loads.They will need better grid planning to ensure adequate network capacity and to integrate the required amount of carbon-free electricity so that industrial customers are assured of reliable supply.43 Hard-to-electrify heat will also require technology support in the form of sandboxes and standards,given that LDES technologies for high-temperature cement and steel will need to be developed,demonstrated and implemented.43 LDES technologies can also support transmission network planning by reducing peak demand from large industrial load on the electric grid49 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageAppendixDriving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage50 OVERVIEW AND APPLICATIONSLDES technologies support decarbonization of already electrified grid-connected facilities in two ways.First,by providing reliability,and second,by time-shifting renewable generation to enable a decarbonized electricity supply(and even a true 24/7 decarbonized electricity supply)44,potentially also creating bill savings by capturing differences in hourly electricity prices(time-based arbitrage).This includes support for grid-connected facilities that are“islanded,”which means they can turn their grid connection on or off,functioning as microgrids.Data centers are a prime example of such electrified grid-connected facilities.They range in size from localized“edge”data centers with small electricity demands(100s of kWe)to hyperscale data centers with massive electricity demands(100s of MWe).Due to corporate commitments,data center providers will increasingly aim to not only satisfy decarbonized electricity demand but also meet true 24/7 time-matched decarbonized electricity demand.Data center deployments and their corresponding electricity load are expected to drastically rise to support increasing data traffic from cloud computing,5G communications,and artificial intelligence.Overall,data centers are expected to consume nearly 1,000 TWhe by 2025,a figure which is expected to triple by 2030.This trend will be especially pronounced in developing economies as they have been slower to adopt computing relative to industrialized economies.FIG.31Appendix A:Data centersKEY MESSAGE AND SUMMARYLDES enables data centers to optimize their use of renewable energy and enhance reliability1.LDES technologies enable high load factor,grid-connected electric industrial facilities,specifically data centers,to decarbonize their electricity supply2.When LDES is deployed in this manner,such facilities also benefit from improved reliability,whose value would otherwise not be enough to justify LDES capital costs3.In geographies with very low cost renewable electricity,LDES is the lowest-cost option for firm,decarbonized electricity at data centers 44 The heat demand sectors highlighted in Chapter 4 that have already electrified operations fall into this category.Data centers are also included in it and present large,high load factor electricity demands along as well as having extremely high uptime requirements.This means they place a very high value on reliability of supply.51 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageFIGURE 31Overview of data center infrastructureSource:Roland BergerServersEngines of the data center includes the processing and memory used to run the applicationsNetworksIncludes the cabling,switches,routers and firewalls that connect the servers to each other and to the outside worldSecurity systemsIncludes environmental control systems like fire suppression,ventilation and cooling systemsUPS45 transition systemsUPS systems are short-term energy storage devices that are used to ensure uninterrupted data center operationBackup power generatorsProvide an emergency or alternative power source when the main power source is interruptedMedia storageSoftware designed storage technologiesUtilityGeneratorTransfer switchUPS45CoolingCritical IT loadOther loadsComponentDATA CENTER INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEWDescriptionPotential LDES applications ArchitectureSupport45 Uninterruptible Power Supply52 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageToday,data centers ensure reliability using diesel generators,presenting an opportunity for LDES to store cheap renewables power and discharge when required.VALUE PROPOSITION AND FEASIBILITYThe ability of LDES to support decarbonization of grid-connected facilities depends on the availability of cheap renewables and required transmission infrastructure.In the case of reliability,the economics are not yet attractive.Generation for reliability has a very low capacity factor(for example,1pacity factor for a facility facing eight 10-hour outages per year).Given this,the volume of avoided diesel expense(purely for reliability)is lower than LDES capital costs and the costs associated with charging the LDES system with green power.Renewable diesel and green H2(fuel cell)are technically lower-cost decarbonization alternatives for reliability only.However,both currently face feasibility roadblocks:they are scarce(due to competition with higher value transportation applications)and come at a significant price premium.LDES is economic for decarbonization of electricity supply,provided renewable electricity prices result in savings high enough to offset LDES capital costs.In summary,LDES is the lowest cost decarbonized solution today.However,LDES paired with renewable power faces a future threat from SMRs given their ability to provide reliable carbon-free on-site power(although SMRs face feasibility challenges,as mentioned earlier in this report).If already installed,then the reliability benefits of LDES are a bonus and enable full decarbonization(assuming grid outages occur).GLOBAL RELEVANCEIn places where renewables costs are low,LDES is the lowest cost of abatement option overall.Data center providers already site facilities in locations with lower power prices,meaning the attractiveness of LDES to support decarbonization of electricity supply and reliability is particularly relevant.ENABLERSLDES adoption will be in large part driven by market influences,with many data center providers having made aggressive decarbonization commitments that necessitate LDES.Additionally,increased regulation for high data center reliability in light of growing risks to grid reliability would drive LDES deployment at data centers.Policy restricting data center deployment could pose a potential risk by limiting data centers from being established in areas with low-cost renewables.53 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageRoland Berger developed an analytical model that estimated the impact LDES technologies can have on off-grid and process heating applications.At a high level,the tool estimates customers status quo energy costs and emissions levels and compares them against energy costs and emissions levels after integrating LDES.For Chapter 3,the comparison is between the cost and emissions from using diesel for plant operations and equipment,and renewable generation firmed by LDES.For Chapter 4,the comparison is between the cost and emissions of natural gas-fueled process heating,and an electrified solution supported by LDES.Roland Berger ascribed a positive cost of abatement when the cost to decarbonize is greater than the status quo,and a negative cost of abatement when the opposite is true.ANALYTICAL OVERVIEWThe analytical model used for this report evaluated customer energy needs,customer energy costs and billing factors,and the potential financial and emissions impact of utilizing LDES technologies by simulating the operation of these resources based on their unique operating parameters.FIG.32Appendix B:Analytical approachFIGURE 32Detailed schematic of analytical modelTechnoeconomic analysisLong Duration Energy Storage solutionTechnoeconomic analysisCustomer energy requirementsTechnoeconomic analysisCost of abatementSource:Roland Berger54 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storage1.Customer energy requirementsThe tool incorporates inputs and assumptions related to customer energy needs including the following:Load shape Baseline demand in MW Annual energy consumption(in gallons of diesel fuel,MCF of natural gas or MWH)Required service level/load factor2.Current state energy solution:Chapter 3 Generator type and heat rate Chapter 4 Boiler type and efficiency Other fossil-fueled processes or equipment,for example,ICE trucks that can be electrified3.Country-specific energy attributes:Retail/wholesale electricity rates(including transmission fees)PPA prices,REC prices Grid emissions factors Solar and wind generation profiles and costs(capital and operating)Fuel prices(diesel,natural gas,green hydrogen,nuclear)Outage frequency and durations Carbon prices 4.Long Duration Energy Storage solution:Financial metrics-Capital cost-Operating costs Operating parameters-Depth of discharge-MWH duration-MW power-Charge-discharge ratio-Round Trip Efficiency-Degradation-Useful life5.Technoeconomic analysis Compared the status quo customer energy demand,emissions and cost to the decarbonized solution supported by LDES 6.Cost of abatement Calculated in USD/ton of CO2 All facilities seek to fully decarbonize(99 %reduction of scope 1 and 2 emissions)-The analysis assumes carbon accounting on a total annual basis as opposed to being time-matched Alternatives analyzed relate to the decarbonization of electric and heat demand for specific processes All projects are assumed to be brownfield,meaning the costs for existing status quo technologies are sunkAs described in Chapter 2,variations across countries depicted in this report reflect differences in country-specific:Retail and wholesale electric prices PPA prices REC prices Grid emissions factors Solar and wind generation profiles and costs (capital and operating)Fuel prices(diesel,natural gas,green hydrogen,nuclear)Outage frequency and durations Subsidies Carbon prices.55 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageMETHODOLOGICAL DETAILThe main assumption for this report is that facilities fully decarbonize their Scope 1 and 2 emissions.The analysis also assumes that carbon is accounted for on an annual basis,which means it is not time-matched.An assumption underlying this entire analysis is that facilities are fully 100carbonizing scope 1 and 2 emissions.Decarbonization analysis assumes carbon accounting on a total annual basis as opposed to being time-matched.This is key as there is a significant cost difference between fully decarbonizing and partially decarbonizing,e.g.,90%.The incremental cost of decarbonizing the last,e.g.,10%of emissions is significantly higher than the e.g.,first 10%.The analysis highlights decarbonization via one primary pathway for each solution,meaning accomplishing e.g.,90carbonization via procurement of renewables and decarbonizing the remaining 10%with hydrogen or other zero carbon fuels was not modeled.Thus,decarbonization via electrification and procurement of zero carbon electricity was the pathway modeled for LDES solutions.Electrification of mining operations is highlighted in the case in Chapter 3 and decarbonization of heat(and power)is highlighted in the case in Chapter 4.All projects are assumed to be brownfield,meaning the costs for existing status quo technologies are sunk.Moreover the alternative technologies modeled relate to the specific electricity and heat requirements of the existing brownfield processes and costs relating to retrofitting these existing processes and not operations as a whole are accounted for.Technologies were sized with respect to each facilitys electric and heat demand.LDES in particular was sized based on relative economics of LDES capex and opex with respect to reliability needs and cost of renewables(either procured via PPAs or RECs or via onsite renewables incurring capex and opex).For the off-grid case study in Chapter 3,LDES(and onsite renewables)were sized to yield the lowest combined capital and operating costs while meeting the facilitys electric demand.As highlighted in the previous paragraphsFor on-grid(Chapter 4),LDES was sized to yield the highest possible electricity bill savings relative to its capital and operating costs.In the aforementioned Chapter 4,a sensitivity on thermal LDES configuration with respect to charge-discharge ratio was conducted by evaluating the economics of a 3-to-1 standalone thermal LDES system,see Figure 21.Electricity expenses in this chapter stemmed from either utility rates and REC prices collected for each geography or historical wholesale power prices and PPA prices.PPA were assumed to be renewable PPAs with a contract for differences,pay-as-produced structure.This PPA structure was selected as it allows the offtaker to take on the most price risk and,thus,have the greatest opportunity to generate savings via price arbitrage enabled by LDES.Once technologies are appropriately sized and all variables above including costs are accounted for,the decarbonized solutions were compared to the status quo via discounted cash flows(DCF).This approach accounts for all technical and economic parameters impacting the 20-year cost of energy supply for each facility and enables a like-for-like comparison between different decarbonization technologies.These DCFs were unlevered and pre-tax and were calculated on a 2023 real USD basis using a weighted average cost of capital(WACC)of 7.5%.46 As mentioned in Chapter 2,each solutions current and future economic viability was analyzed by 46 10%WACC assumed;functionally,this WACC represents the cost of debt given DCFs were unlevered;2.5%subtracted from 10%to remove the effect of inflation(DCFs calculated on a 2023 real USD basis)56 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy Storagelooking across a 20-year period with project start years in 2023,2030,and 2040 across all geographies.Three DCFs were calculated for each combination of solution,year,and country:one for the facilitys status quo,one for the decarbonized solution at that facility,and one for the delta between the status quo and solution(status quo subtracted from solution).The delta between the two respective DCFs yielded a cost of decarbonization in absolute real USD terms.This cost of decarbonization was then divided by the NPV of CO2 emissions,yielding a cost of abatement in real USD/ton CO2.DCF line items included both annualized expenses fuel expense,electricity expense,lost load expense,emissions,carbon tax expense(calculated based on scope 1 emissions only),and technology opex and a capex for new technologies in year 0.As highlighted in Chapter 2,variations across countries depicted in this report reflect differences in country-specific input retail and wholesale electric prices,PPA prices,REC prices,grid emissions factors,solar and wind generation profiles and costs(capital and operating),fuel prices(diesel,natural gas,green hydrogen,nuclear),outage frequency and durations,subsidies,and carbon prices.CALCULATION OF ADDRESSABLE EMISSIONSThe addressable emissions for LDES were calculated using data from the European Unions Emissions Database for Atmospheric Research,International Energy Agency,Germanys Federal Geothermal Association(Bundesverband Geothermie),and Energy Innovation and Policy,the San Francisco climate research firm,and Roland Berger.The Emissions Database for Atmospheric Research provided estimates of total global industrial emissions.The International Energy Agency provided estimates on the share of emissions by industrial sector.Data detailing process heat requirements for these sectors were provided by Germanys Federal Geothermal Association and Energy Innovation and Policy.The specific calculation started with total global industrial emissions which were then allocated to specific sectors.Emissions were allocate further based on process heat temperature requirements provided by the Federal Geothermal Association and Energy Innovation and Policy.Addressable emissions include all electric consumption as well as processes requiring temperatures of 500 C and below.57 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageTechnical assumptions for LDES technologies were sourced from publicly available databases and Roland Berger proprietary data,and were validated by LDES Council members who provided their own benchmarks.Roland Berger modeled the performance of LDES technologies within the families outlined below,whose specific values for capacity,round trip efficiency and cost have been aggregated to ensure confidentiality and non-attribution.Price assumptions for other technologies evaluated in this report are listed in Figure 33:Appendix C:Technologies Technical and cost assumptionsFIGURE 33Technology input assumptionsTechnical assumptions47 Cost assumptions shown here correspond to a 24-hour duration 48 Capital cost-Unit for corresponding technology indicates whether Fixed OPEX is in USD/kWe or USD/kWtSource:PNNL,NREL,Expert interviews,Roland BergerCost assumptions47EfficiencyRTE%Technology90%-96%LDES Thermal50%-80%LDES Mechanical60%-85%LDES ElectrochemicalCapital cost20302040UnitOperating cost USD/kW48-year20232030204050-10030-48USD/kWht13131150-6150-61USD/kWhe161616206-252165-201USD/kWhe22201857-6938-46USD/kWhe20171330%-50%LDES Chemical58 Driving to Net Zero Industry Through Long Duration Energy StorageAppendix D:Case study approach and status quo assumptionsCase studies are intended to reflec
2023-12-22
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Agrivoltaics:Solar Farming for a Greener FutureAlexis PascarisNational Renewable Energy LaboratoryEN.
2023-12-22
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WMO-No.1356WEATHER CLIMATE WATERState of the Climate in the South-West Pacific2023BWMO-No.1356 World Meteorological Organization,2024The right of publication in print,electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO.Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization,provided that the complete source is clearly indicated.Editorial correspondence and requests to publish,reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to:Chair,Publications BoardWorld Meteorological Organization(WMO)7 bis,avenue de la Paix P.O.Box 2300 Tel.: 41(0)22 730 84 03CH-1211 Geneva 2,Switzerland Email:publicationswmo.intISBN 978-92-63-11356-9 Cover illustration:Atafu atoll,a group of 52 coral islets within Tokelau in the South Pacific Ocean.Credit:NASA Johnson Space Center.Key messages page:Beautiful morning view,Indonesia.Panorama.Landscape:paddy fields with beautiful colour and sky.Natural light.Generative AI.Source:iStockNOTEThe designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area,or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members.iContentsKey messages.iiForeword.iiiPreface.ivGlobal climate context.1Regional climate.2Major climate drivers.2Temperature.3Precipitation.4Cryosphere .5Sea-surface temperature.5Ocean heat content.7Sea level.8Extreme events.9Tropical cyclones.9Heavy precipitation and flooding.10Drought and wildfires.11Extreme heat .11Marine heatwaves.12Climate-related impacts andrisks .13Affected population and damage.13Status of early warning systems in the South-West Pacific.14Early warnings and anticipatory action in the South-West Pacific .15Challenges and opportunities.15Datasets and methods.18List of contributors.21Endnotes.22We need your feedbackThis year,the WMO team has launched a process to gather feedback on the State of the Climate reports and areas for improvement.Once you have finished reading the publication,we ask that you kindly give us your feedback by responding to this short survey.Your input is highly appreciated.Key messagesThe year 2023 was substantially warmer than the previous several years in the South-West Pacific region,with the elevated temperatures associated with the transition from La Nia to El Nio conditions.The mean annual temperature for the region was 0.29 C 0.26 C0.33C above the average for the 19912020 reference period,making the year one of the three warmest on record,depending on the dataset considered.Over the first four months of the year,rainfall was above average for much of the Maritime Continent,Australia,Papua New Guinea,and the Pacific Islands,in line with typical La Nia conditions.Conversely,in the last four months of the year,rainfall was below average for much of these regions.The central Pacific Islands experienced a drier-than-average start to 2023 but received an above-average amount of rainfall in the latter part of the year,consistent with typical El Nio conditions.The most prominent and persistent marine heatwave in 2023 occurred in a large area around New Zealand.This heatwave was categorized as extreme and lasted approximately six months.Sea levels continued to rise at rates higher than the global mean in several parts of the region.The South-West Pacific region is extremely prone to disasters associated with hydrometeorological hazards,especially storms and floods.Overall,34 reported hydrometeorological hazard events in 2023 led to over 200 fatalities and impacted more than 25 million people.From 21 to 27 July,Typhoon Doksuri severely impacted the South-East Asia region.Doksuri brought heavy rainfall to the Philippines,displacing approximately 1 200 people before making landfall on 26 July.After landfall,Doksuri resulted in widespread devastation to the country,claiming at least 45 lives and displacing almost 313 000 people.In August,the deadliest single wildfire of the year globally occurred in Hawaii.Atleast 100 deaths were reported,the most in a wildfire in the United States of America in more than 100 years.Approximately 95%of WMO Members in WMO Regional Association V(South-West Pacific)provide climate predictions to support disaster risk reduction activities.However,climate projections and tailored products are provided by fewer than 70%of Members in the region.These services in particular are needed to inform risk management and adaptation to and mitigation of climate change and its impacts.iiiClimate change has become a global crisis and is the defining challenge that humanity currently faces.Communities,economies and ecosystems throughout the South-West Pacific region are significantly affected by its cascading impacts.It is increasingly evident that we are fast running out of time to turn the tide.The report on the State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2023 provides details regarding temperature,precipitation,tropical cyclones,extreme events,and their socioeconomic impacts.The transition from La Nia to El Nio conditions in the course of 2023 influenced weather and climate patterns in the region.However,although the 2023/2024 El Nio event is ending;climate change continues to accelerate.Sea-level rise is above the global average in many parts of the region,disrupting economies,displacing communities and threatening the very existence of small island developing States(SIDS).In March 2022,United Nations Secretary-General Antnio Guterres,launched the“Early Warnings for All”initiative with the goal of ensuring that every person on Earth is safeguarded by early warning systems.This initiative underscores the urgency of protecting vulnerable communities worldwide,particularly in SIDS,where the need for early warning systems is critical.SIDS face many challenges exacerbated by climate change.Early warning systems serve as a lifeline for SIDS,providing timely and accurate information to governments,communities,and other stakeholders.These systems play a crucial role in saving lives and mitigating the socioeconomic impacts of disasters by facilitating proactive measures such as evacuation plans,resource allocation,and infrastructure reinforcement.However,despite their critical importance,early warning systems are only available in one third of SIDS globally.This disparity underscores why WMO and its partners are spearheading concerted action to bridge the gap in early warning infrastructures and services.WMO remains steadfast in its commitment to monitoring the climate system and providing authoritative information to leaders and the public alike.Through robust collaboration across the United Nations family and with partners and donors,we are empowered to deliver impactful services grounded in reliable information.The spirit of collaboration and partnership has been instrumental in the creation of reports such as this one.I extend my sincere gratitude to our Members,our sister United Nations agencies,and all the experts from both the South-West Pacific region and around the world for their invaluable contributions to the scientific coordination and authorship of this report.Foreword(Prof.Celeste Saulo)Secretary-General,WMOiv(Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana)Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of ESCAPPrefaceThe impact of increased atmospheric,land and ocean heat was evident as severe heatwaves swept through the South-West Pacific region in 2023.While droughts affected the largest number of people,floods and storms compounded their impacts and were primarily responsible for the resulting fatalities and economic costs.An early warning system is one of the most effective ways to reduce mortality and economic losses from natural hazards.A 24-hour warning of an incoming storm or heatwave can potentially reduce damages by up to 30 per cent.An analysis of the status of early warning systems reveals that there is a critical gap in knowledge and understanding of disaster risks.Addressing this gap is key to implementing the Global Executive Action Plan on Early Warnings for All in this subregion.The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP)has responded by configuring the Risk and Resilience Portal to deepen knowledge of risks,especially in hotspots where risks are intensifying under various warming scenarios.Another important aspect of a people-centred early warning system is the need to incorporate sector-specific forecasts that translate expected impacts on the ground into early warnings and anticipatory action.This is highlighted,for example,in the case of the Anticipatory Action Protocol for Agricultural Drought in Timor-Leste,presented in the current report.The 2023 edition of the ESCAP Asia-Pacific Disaster Report underscores that the region has a narrow window to increase its resilience and protect its hard-won development gains from the socioeconomic impacts of climate change.In the absence of immediate action,temperature rises of 1.5 C and 2 C will cause disaster risk to outpace resilience beyond the limits of feasible adaptation and imperil sustainable development.In this context,the State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2023 report is timely as it unpacks the interconnection between climate indicators and the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)and helps bridge gaps between science and policy.ESCAP and WMO,working in partnership,will continue to invest in raising climate ambition and accelerating the implementation of policy actions.This includes working together to bring early warnings to all in the region so that no one is left behind as our climate change crisis continues to evolve.1The global annual mean near-surface temperature in 2023 was 1.45C 0.12C above the 18501900 pre-industrial average.The year 2023 was the warmest year on record according to six globally averaged datasets.1 The nine years 2015 to 2023 were the nine warmest years on record in all six datasets.2Atmospheric concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases reached new record observed highs in 2022,the latest year for which consolidated global figures are available,with levels of carbon dioxide(CO2)at 417.9 0.2 parts per million(ppm),methane(CH4)at 1932 2 parts per billion(ppb)and nitrous oxide(N2O)at 335.8 0.1 ppb,respectively 150%,264%and 124%of pre-industrial(before 1750)levels(Figure1).Real-time data from specific locations,including Mauna Loa3(Hawaii,United States of America)and Kennaook/Cape Grim4(Tasmania,Australia)indicate that levels of CO2,CH4 and N2O continued to increase in 2023.Over the past two decades,the ocean warming rate has increased;the ocean heat content in 2023 was the highest on record.Ocean warming and accelerated loss of ice mass from the ice sheets contributed to the rise of the global mean sea level by 4.77mm per year between 2014 and 2023,reaching a new record high in 2023.Between 1960 and 2021,the ocean absorbed about 25%of annual anthropogenic CO2 emitted into the atmosphere;5 CO2 reacts with seawater and lowers its pH.The limited number of long-term observations in the open ocean have shown a decline in pH,with a reduction of the average global surface ocean pH of 0.0170.027pH units per decade since the late 1980s.6 This process,known as ocean acidification,affects many organisms and ecosystem services7 and threatens food security by endangering fisheries and aquaculture.Global climate context(a)Carbon dioxide concentration(b)Methane concentration(c)Nitrous oxide concentration(d)Carbon dioxide growth rate(e)Methane growth rate(f)Nitrous oxide growth rateppmppbppbppm/yearppb/yearppb/year 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 5 0 5 10 15 20 0 1 2 3 4 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 300 310 320 330 340 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 340 360 380 400 420YearYearYearYearYearYearFigure 1.Top row:Monthly globally averaged mole fraction(measure of atmospheric concentration),from1984 to 2022,of(a)CO2 in parts per million,(b)CH4 in parts per billion and(c)N2O in parts per billion.Bottom row:Growth rates representing increases in successive annual means of mole fractions for (d)CO2 in parts per million per year,(e)CH4 in parts per billion per year and(f)N2O in parts per billion peryear.2The following sections analyse key climate indicators in the South-West Pacific region8 during 2023.One important indicator,surface temperature,is described in terms of anomalies,or departures from a reference period.For global mean surface temperature,the Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)9 uses the reference period 18501900 for calculating anomalies in relation to pre-industrial levels.However,this pre-industrial reference period cannot be used in all regions of the world as a baseline for calculating regional anomalies due to insufficient data for calculating region-specific averages prior to 1900.Instead,the 19912020 climatological standard normal is used for computing anomalies in temperature and other indicators.Regional temperature anomalies can also be expressed relative to the WMO reference period for climate change assessment,19611990.In the present report,exceptions to the use of these baseline periods for the calculation of anomalies,where they occur,are explicitly noted.MAJOR CLIMATE DRIVERSThe climate in the South-West Pacific region is influenced by a number of drivers of regional climate variability,10 including the El NioSouthern Oscillation(ENSO).ENSO strongly influences the climate over most of the tropical Pacific,as well as many other parts of the world.The Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)strongly influences the climate over the tropical Indian Ocean and adjacent countries,particularly Australia and Indonesia.The MaddenJulian Oscillation(MJO)influences intraseasonal climate variability in tropical areas,with active phases increasing the chances of heavy rainfall and tropical cyclone formation in the affected longitudes,while the Southern Annular Mode(SAM)impacts the southern hemisphere extratropics.After three consecutive years of La Nia,which ended in early 2023,the tropical Pacific Ocean began experiencing El Nio conditions in the 2023 boreal summer.However,the atmosphere was slower to respond,and it was not until early September that El Nio conditions were well established in both the atmosphere and the ocean.The El Nio event contributed to above-average rainfall along the equatorial tropical Pacific area as well as below-average rainfall over much of the off-equatorial South Pacific.A strong positive IOD was present in the second half of 2023;the longer-than-usual duration of this event was associated with the active ElNio.The SAM was positive in early 2023,then generally negative between the austral autumn and winter,before transitioning to positive in late 2023.There were a number of active phases of the MJO,which are associated with increased rainfall and a higher risk of tropical cyclone formation.A notably strong MJO was present in the western Pacific during the first quarter of 2023,coinciding with Severe Tropical Cyclone Judy and Severe Tropical Cyclone Kevin over the western South Pacific.The MJO was active near the Maritime Continent and into the western Pacific during September,coinciding with multiple typhoons and tropical storms over the North-West Pacific basin.Regional climate3TEMPERATUREThe annual mean surface temperature averaged over both land and ocean areas in 2023 in the South-West Pacific region ranked between the first and third warmest on record,depending on the dataset considered.It was 0.29C 0.26C0.33C above the 19912020 average and 0.62C 0.49C0.68C above the 19611990 average11(Figure2).2023 was substantially warmer than the previous several years in the region,largely as a result of the transition from LaNia to ElNio conditions.ElNio years are typically warmer than the preceding non-ElNio years in the South-West Pacific region.Temperatures in 2023 were higher than normal in many areas of the region.The most significant warmth was over an area extending from south-east Australia to east of New Zealand(Figure3).The central and eastern equatorial Pacific were also warmer,reflecting ElNio conditions in the second half of the year.Across these areas,temperatures were generally0.5C to 1.0C above the 19912020 average.New Zealand had its second warmest year on record,with an average temperature of 0.87C above the 19912020 average.Negative temperature anomalies were seen over a part of northern Australia and the eastern part of the tropical Indian Ocean,consistent with the positive IOD in the second half of 2023.5.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.25 0 0.25 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 CFigure 3.Annual near-surface temperature anomalies(C,difference from the 19912020 average)for 2023.Data shown are the median of the following six datasets:Berkeley Earth,ERA5,GISTEMP,HadCRUT5,JRA-55,NOAAGlobalTemp.Figure 2.Annual regional mean land and ocean temperature for WMO Region V,South-West Pacific(C,difference from the 19912020 average)from 1900 to 2023.Source:Data are from thefollowing six datasets:Berkeley Earth,ERA5,GISTEMP,HadCRUT5,JRA-55,NOAAGlobalTemp.1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Year 0.50.00.51.01.5CHadCRUT5(19002023)NOAAGlobalTemp(19002023)GISTEMP(19002023)Berkeley Earth(19002023)JRA-55(19582023)ERA5(19792023)4PRECIPITATIONPrecipitation is a key climate parameter,closely related to indispensable resources for human activities such as water for drinking and domestic purposes,agriculture,and hydropower.Italso drives major climatic events such as droughts and floods.Rainfall patterns in the South-West Pacific region are largely influenced by the ENSO state,which transitioned from La Nia at the beginning of 2023 to El Nio in the second half of the year.Over the first four months of 2023,rainfall was above average for much of the Maritime Continent,Australia,Papua New Guinea,and Pacific Islands including Vanuatu and Niue,in line with a typical La Nia.Conversely,in the last four months of the year,rainfall was below average for much of these areas.The central Pacific Islands,including Kiribati,Tuvalu,Nauru,and the northern Cook Islands,experienced a drier start to the year,followed by above-average rainfall in the latter part of the year,also in line with the ENSO conditions.In 2023,the largest precipitation deficits(measured as a percentage of the average)were observed in the Hawaiian Islands and south-western Australia(Figure4).Other areas with below-average rainfall amounts were New Caledonia,Tuvalu,parts of Fiji,Tonga and the Cook Islands,parts of northern Australia,Tasmania,the southern South Island of New Zealand,some areas in the Greater Sunda Islands(Indonesia)and parts of Luzon(Philippines).Based on time series analyses(not shown),it was unusually dry(below the 10th percentile)in southern Borneo,south-west and East Australia(around Brisbane)and some central Pacific islands.Above-normal precipitation amounts were recorded around the Solomon Sea,the Solomon Islands,Vanuatu,Samoa,Niue,the Line Islands,the southern Philippines,northern Borneo,the Malay Peninsula,Sumatra,large parts of New Zealand,and northern Central Australia.0 40 80 120 160 200%Figure 4.Precipitation anomalies for 2023,expressed as a percentage of the 19912020 averageSource:Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC),Deutscher Wetterdienst(DWD),Germany5CRYOSPHERESnow is rare or unknown at low elevations over most of the region;however,snow and ice occur in some mountain areas.There are glaciers in the mountains of New Zealand,mostly on the South Island,and on the highest peaks of the western part of the island of New Guinea.There is significant seasonal snow cover in the highland areas of New Zealand and southern Australia.New Zealands seasonal snow is monitored via twelve National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research(NIWA)snow and ice monitoring sites.Data from these sites show that the average and maximum snow depths were almost universally below average12 in 2023.Winter maximum depths were between 36%and 96%of the climatological values.Both the maximum and average snow depths followed a general latitudinal trend,with sites further north recording lower percentages of the climatological values.The Ivory Glacier(West Coast,1390m elevation)had the lowest fraction of average snow depth,at only 15%of its climatological average.At Mueller Hut(Canterbury,1818m elevation),snow depths were at record-low levels for most of the season and melt out(no snow remaining)occurred on 3December2023,one month earlier than average(and the earliest on record for this site).In Australia,mountain snowpacks were generally below average.There was a near-average start to the season,with the longest-running snow depth measurement site,Spencers Creek(near Perisher Valley in New South Wales,1830m elevation),reaching a depth of 1.31m on 13July,which proved to be its seasonal peak.Snow depths at this location remained between 1m and 1.3m until mid-September before the snow rapidly melted during near-record temperatures in the second half of the month,with the last snow gone by 10October.The peak depth was about 30low average,and both the seasonal peak and the melting date were abnormally early.There were also few significant low-elevation snowfalls,although an unusual early-season event brought snow on 7May to an elevation above 700m in north-eastern Victoria and south-eastern New South Wales.On 19December,a kona low system(a subtropical cyclone that occurs during the cool season in the north central Pacific)brought blizzard-like conditions to the higher elevations in Hawaii.The summit of Mauna Kea reported 3m snow drifts and gusts over 160km per hour.SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURESea-surface temperature(SST)is an important physical indicator for Earths climate system.Changes in SST play a critical role for the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere as they can trigger the transfer of energy,momentum and gases(including water vapour evaporating and ocean uptake/release of greenhouse gases)between the two Earth system components.13 SST is an essential parameter in weather and climate prediction and is impor-tant for the study of marine ecosystems.14 While the global mean SST is increasing,there is variability around this average,with different regions and locations experiencing different responses.These responses vary in terms of both trend and variance on different timescales and are linked to climate modes(such as ENSO)and ocean dynamics,such as ocean fronts,eddies,coastal upwelling and exchanges between the coastal shelf and the open ocean.15Over the period 19812023,for which observation data from satellites are available,nearly the entire South-West Pacific region shows ocean surface warming,reaching rates of more than 0.4C per decade north-east of New Zealand,south of Australia and at the northern 6margin of this area(Figure5(a).This is about three times faster than the global surface ocean warming rate.For comparison,global mean SST has increased over recent decades at a rate of 0.15C 0.01C per decade.16In 2023,all subregions,except for the area west of Indonesia,experienced warm anomalies reaching sup to 0.5C(Figure5(b),Box(3).Warming rates comparable to or exceeding the global mean rates prevailed in all sub-areas except for the central Pacific zone,where changes in sea-surface temperature are known to be dominated by ENSO.Figure 5.(a)Sea-surface temperature trend (in C per decade)over the period 19822023.(b)Area-averaged time series of SST anomalies(C)relative to the 19822022 reference period for the four areas indicated in 5(a).The linear trend over the full period is indicated as a dashed line Source:Derived from the Copernicus Marine Service remote sensing products available at https:/doi.org/10.48670/moi-00168(for 19822022)and https:/doi.org/10.48670/moi-00165(for 2023)LatitudeLongitude(a)SST(C)0.50.00.5SST(C)SST(C)(b)C/decade10 N10 S30 S50 S80 E 120 E 180 140 W0.40.30.20.10.00.10.20.30.4Year1)2)3)4)198220182002199819941986199020142010200620221)198220182002199819941986199020142010200620222)198220182002199819941986199020142010200620223)198220182002199819941986199020142010200620224)Trend:0.18 0.05 C/decadeTrend:0.05 0.11 C/decadeTrend:0.12 0.06 C/decade0.50.00.5Trend:0.14 0.06 C/decade0.50.00.50.50.00.5SST(C)7OCEAN HEAT CONTENTDue to emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases resulting from human activities,the global ocean has warmed.It has taken up more than 90%of the excess heat in the climate system,making climate change irreversible on centennial to millennial timescales.17 Ocean warming contributes about 40%of the observed global mean sea-level rise through the thermal expansion of seawater.18 It is altering ocean currents,indirectly altering storm tracks19 and increasing ocean stratification,20 which can lead to changes in marine ecosystems.Most of the areas in the South-West Pacific show upper-ocean(0700m)warming since 1993.Warming is particularly strong,with rates exceeding 23 times the global average warming rates,in the Solomon Sea and east of the Solomon Islands;in the Arafura,Banda and Timor Seas;east of the Philippines;along the southern coast of Indonesia and in the Tasman Sea(Figure6(a).The latter sub-area witnessed a high upper-ocean heat content during 2023(Figure6(b),Box4),matching the record high set in 2022.In addition,upper-ocean warming in the region is strongly affected by natural variability.For example,in the tropical Pacific,the average upper-ocean warming is dominated by natural variability(for example,ENSO)whereby large amounts of heat are redistributed from the sur-face down to deeper layers of the ocean,and from the tropics to the subtropics.214)19942018200219982014201020062022199420182002199820142010200620223)199420182002199820142010200620222)LatitudeLongitude(a)02(b)10 N10 S30 S50 S80 E 120 E 180 140 W432101234Year1)2)3)4)Trend:0.5 1.1 W/m2Trend:0.5 0.5 W/m2Trend:0.7 0.4 W/m2Trend:1.1 0.3 W/m2(W/m2)199420182002199820142010200620221)OHC(J/m2)OHC(J/m2)OHC(J/m2)OHC(J/m2)1e91e91e91e9010101Figure 6.(a)Ocean heat content(OHC)trend(units:watts per square metre,W/m2)over the period 19932023,integrated from the surface down to700mdepth.Ocean warming rates in areas with water shallower than 300m have been masked in white due to product limitations.(b)Area-averaged time series of upper 700m OHC anomalies relative tothe 20052022 reference period(joules per square meter(J/m2)for the four areas indicated in 6(a).Thelinear trend over the full period is indicated as adashed line.Source:Derived from the in situ-based Copernicus Marine Service product available at https:/doi.org/10.48670/moi-00052.8SEA LEVELIn 2023,the sea level continued to rise globally and regionally as shown by high precision satellite altimetry measurements.The average global mean sea level rise(GMSL)was 3.4mm /-0.3mm/year over the January 1993 to May 2023 period.However,the rate of rise is not the same everywhere.Figure7 shows the sea-level trend over the January 1993May 2023 period as measured by satellite altimeters.In the South-West Pacific region,the sea-level rise of the last three decades exceeds the global mean sea-level rise.Altimetry-based sea-level time series from January 1993 to May 2023 have been averaged over two areas within the region(Figure7,bottom left and bottom right).The mean rate of sea-level rise in both areas is significantly higher than the global mean(4.52mm /-0.25mm/year in area 1 and 4.13mm /-0.08mm/year in area 2).The sea-level time series in area 1(Figure7,bottom left)displays strong inter-annual variability,mostly driven by ENSO(see the strong sea-level drops in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016).Sea-level rise is more regular in area 2 except for a steep increase around 1998.Figure7.Altimetry-based coastal sea-level time series(m)from January 1993 to May 2023 for the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans.The map(top)shows the annual mean sea-level trend and location of areas summarized in the plots at the bottom left and bottom right.The transition from green to yellow corresponds to the 3.4mm per year overall trend in global mean sea-level rise.The plots show mean sea-level anomalies(blue)and estimated trend(orange line)for the South-East Asia and southern Oceania regions,respectively.Source:Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S)https:/climate.copernicus.eu/sea-level,and Laboratory of Space Geophysical and Oceanographic Studies(LEGOS),FranceLongitude120 E 180 120 WLatitude60 N50 N20 N020 S40 S60 SSea-level trend from January 1993 to May 20231215.012.510.07.55.02.50.02.55.0mm/yrGMSL3.41992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024Year 15010050050100Sea level(mm)Sea-level anomalies Trend:4.52 0.24 mm/yr Sea-level anomalies in area 11992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024Year 1201008060402002040Sea level(mm)Sea-level anomalies in area 2Sea-level anomalies Trend:4.13 0.08 mm/yr 9TROPICAL CYCLONESThe South-West Pacific encompasses the Australian and South Pacific tropical cyclone areas(covering the southern hemisphere from 90E eastward to 120W,up to the equator)as well as part of the western and central North Pacific areas.In this region,the 2022/2023 tropical cyclone season was below average in terms of the total number of tropical cyclones that formed in both the South Pacific and Australian basins,although several of the storms which did form were severe.Over the South Pacific area,there were four named storms,including three which were considered severe tropical cyclones(category3 or above):Tropical Cyclones Gabrielle,Kevin and Judy,which all developed during February 2023.The Australian area had six named storms over the season,including five which were considered severe tropical cyclones;of these,Tropical Cyclones Darian,Herman and Ilsa reached category5 during December 2022,March 2023,and April 2023,respectively.It was the first season since 1998/1999 which recorded at least three category5 systems in the Australian area.The pattern of tropical cyclone activity in the southern hemisphere was somewhat atypical of LaNia conditions,which typically result in increased tropical cyclone activity in the western South Pacific close to Australia and decreased activity further east.LaNia also often increases tropical cyclone numbers in the eastern Indian Ocean off the Australian coast when compared to either an El Nio or ENSO-neutral conditions(although there is a high level of variability from year to year),but that increase was also absent during the 2022/2023 season.In the South-West Pacific,the most significant cyclones of 2023 were those which formed during February over the South Pacific area.Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle brought significant rainfall,causing major impacts to the eastern North Island of New Zealand during its post-tropical phase(see Heavy Precipitation and Flooding below).22 Severe Tropical Cyclones Kevin and Judy were notable for making landfall on the island nation of Vanuatu within 48 hours of each other in March,causing more than 80%of the population to experience winds above 88km/h(above a category2 system),23 with the eye of Judy passing directly over the capital,Port Vila.Cyclone Lola,which made landfall on Vanuatu on 24October,affected 91000people in Malampa,Penama,Shefa and Torba provinces;as a result,the Government of Vanuatu declared a six-month state of emergency in these provinces.Overall,the western North Pacific had a below-average total number of tropical cyclones in 2023,although the number of intense cyclones was near average.The most significant event of 2023 in the northern hemisphere part of the region was Typhoon Doksuri(known as Egay in the Philippines).From 21 to 27July,Doksuri severely impacted the South-East Asia sub-region.Doksuri brought heavy rainfall to the Philippines before making landfall on 26July,displacing approximately 1200 people.24 After landfall,Doksuri resulted in widespread devastation to the country,claiming at least 45 lives and displacing almost 313000 people.25 The Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management(AHA Centre)and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council(NDRRMC)of the Philippines responded quickly to the disaster,dispatching vital supplies to impacted areas,including water filtration systems,shelter repair kits,and personal hygiene kits.To lessen the effects of such catastrophic weather events,improved disaster planning and resilient infrastructure are essential,as demonstrated by the response efforts.26In Fiji,on 12November,before the arrival of gale force winds from Severe Tropical Cyclone Mal,various parts of the country experienced continuous rains.RKS Lodoni,in the Central Division,recorded its highest November 24-hour rainfall,178mm,since automatic weather station(AWS)observations started in September 2013.This heavy rainfall led to flash flooding in low-lying areas,causing several bridges and crossings in the Central and Eastern Divisions to close and become inaccessible.From 13 to 16November,Mal brought fresh to strong Extreme events10winds,which affected most parts of the country,with near gale force winds impacting the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups,western Viti Levu,Kadavu and the nearby smaller islands.Vulnerable infrastructures,livestock,and agriculture were damaged.These events underscore the importance of robust disaster risk management strategies and resilient infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.27HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND FLOODINGThe North Island of New Zealand suffered under repeated extreme rainfall and flooding events in January and February.The most significant was on 13 to 14February,when Cyclone Gabrielle passed just east of the North Island as a post-tropical system.Daily rainfalls exceeded 500mm in parts of the eastern North Island.Extreme flooding occurred in the Gisborne and Hawkes Bay areas,and Northland,Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula were also badly affected.A more localized event on 27 to 28January brought record rainfalls to the Auckland area.Eleven deaths were reported as a result of Gabrielle and four from the Auckland floods,with total economic losses from the two events estimated at US$5.3 to US$8.6 billion,28 by far the costliest non-earthquake natural disaster ever recorded in New Zealand.Parts of northern Australia experienced major flooding during the early months of 2023.The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Ellie,which made landfall on 22December2022 in the western Northern Territory,brought major flooding to the Kimberley area of northern Western Australia and adjacent parts of the Northern Territory in late December and early January.The Fitzroy River at Fitzroy Crossing exceeded its previous record level by more than a metre,and the main road bridge was destroyed,severing the only road links between the east Kimberley area and areas further south and west for several months.A second major flood affected the far north-west of Queensland and the eastern Northern Territory in early March.The Gregory River reached record levels,and the town of Burketown was evacuated,although it ultimately escaped full inundation.Several Indigenous communities were also evacuated for extended periods.At the start of the 2023/2024 season,Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall on 13December near Wujal Wujal,north of Cairns,as a category2 system.This marked the earliest landfall of a cyclone-intensity storm on the east coast in the satellite era.Jasper then stalled for several days,resulting in exceptionally heavy rainfall and severe flooding in the area.Whyanbeel Valley received 2085.8mm of rain over the six days from 14 to 19December,including 699.8mm on 18December,while Mossman South received 714.0mm the same day,an Australian record for December.In January,a wet spell occurred in Malaysia.Several stations broke their records of daily or monthly totals.Floods were reported from six states,and more than 22000 people were evacuated.29Heavy precipitation,favoured by the prevailing LaNia conditions in the first months of 2023,caused numerous flash flood events in Indonesia.In March 2023,Indonesia faced a devastating landslide triggered by intense rainfall in the Serasan District(Natuna Regency,northern Riau Islands).The toll on residents was severe,with 54lives lost and more than 2800 people affected.30 Authorities in charge of the disaster relief effort attributed the incident to high-intensity rainfall and unstable soil conditions.Severe weather conditions hindered rescue and relief efforts,blocking roads and disrupting telecommunications networks.31 The landslide in Indonesia underscores the critical need for robust disaster preparedness and resilient infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of such natural hazards.11DROUGHT AND WILDFIRESThe transition from La Nia to ElNio resulted in changes in the drought situation in the equatorial Pacific.LaNia conditions influenced the spatial distribution of rain in the first months of 2023,while ElNio prevailed in the second half of the year.Even though the rainfall deficit was smaller than in the previous year,some islands in the Pacific had their second consecutive year with drier-than-usual conditions.These included the Hawaiian Islands,Tuvalu,Kiribati,the Republic of the Marshall Islands and French Polynesia,as well as parts of New Zealands South Island and Tasmania.Some areas in south-west Australia also had their second consecutive year of drier-than-normal conditions.ElNio conditions led to the drought easing in these areas but intensifying in Indonesia,where the August to November period was dry in many parts of the country.Rice planting was delayed for the 2024 harvest in Indonesia,particularly in Java,where the wet season began later than usual.During the September to November period,the area planted with rice was 54%smaller than it was for the same period in 2022.Authorities declared a drought emergency in Bali in October.Wildfire activity in Indonesia was higher than it had been in the previous three years but well below that experienced during the 2015/2016 ElNio.Much of Australia outside the tropics had average to below-average rainfall in 2023 after widespread wet conditions in 2021 and 2022,and winter crop production is forecast to be slightly below the 10-year average and 33%lower than the record high levels in 2022.TheAugust to October period was especially dry;averaged over the continent,this period was the countrys driest three-month period on record,although rainfall returned to average or above-average levels in November.Several large wildfires were reported in the interior of Australia.Fires to the east and west of Tennant Creek,in Australias Northern Territory,burned a total of over 13 million hectares,mostly in very sparsely populated areas.32 Very large fires in interior Australia are typical of post-La Nia periods because La Nia-related precipitation excess causes abnormal vegetation growth,resulting in increased fuel loads.Major wildfires occurred in a number of locations in late October and early November in inland parts of southern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales,in areas which had been especially dry.Extremely large fires also occurred during spring in the central Northern Territory following heavy grass growth during and after the very wet 2022/2023 monsoon season.In August,the deadliest single wildfire of the year globally occurred in Hawaii,on the western side of the island of Maui.Extreme fire weather conditions,with low humidity and strong,gusty winds driven by a pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the north and the circulation of Hurricane Dora well to the south combined with pre-existing drought to favour the development and rapid spread of intense fires.The worst affected area was around the town of Lahaina,which was largely destroyed,with over 2200 structures lost.At least 100 deaths were reported,33 the most in a wildfire in the United States of America in more than 100 years.Wildfires of such intensity and speed of movement are extremely rare in the tropics.Drought had redeveloped from May onwards over much of Hawaii after temporarily easing earlier in the year,with most of the state in severe to extreme drought as of the end of November.EXTREME HEATA major and prolonged heatwave affected much of South-East Asia in April and May.Although its most significant impacts were further north,the heatwave extended into the South-West Pacific region.Singapore experienced high temperatures,with the years highest maximum temperature of 37.0C at Ang Mo Kio on 13May matching the national record set in 1983.12Many high temperature extremes occurred throughout the year at island locations in the tropical Pacific,driven by high SSTs.With La Nia having a cooling influence over much of the continent,heat extremes were limited over Australia during the 2022/2023 summer,although significant heat extremes occurred in parts of the country during spring,particularly in the southern half of Western Australia,where many monthly records were set during September,October and November.Summer temperatures in New Zealand were well above average;the season was marked more by persistent warmth than by individual extremes,but some records were set on the west coast of the South Island,including at Greymouth(30.9C on 8 January)and Milford Sound(29.4C on 4 February).MARINE HEATWAVESAnalogous to heatwaves on land,marine heatwaves are prolonged periods of extreme heat that affect the ocean and can have a range of consequences for marine life and dependent communities.Marine heatwaves have become more frequent over the twentieth and twen-ty-first centuries;satellite retrievals of SSTs are used to monitor them.They are categorized as moderate when the SST is above the 90th percentile of the climatological distribution for five days or longer;the subsequent categories are defined with respect to the difference between the SST and the climatological distribution average:strong,severe or extreme,if that difference is,respectively,more than two,three or four times the difference between the 90th percentile and the climatological distribution average.34In 2023,the most prominent and persistent marine heatwaves occurred in a large area around New Zealand,affecting the Tasman Sea and the ocean area east of New Zealand up to about 150W.This marine heatwave was extreme and lasted about six months(Figure8).The emergence of the 2023 El Nio is also visible in the evaluation of marine heatwaves in the eastern Pacific Ocean.Signatures of the persistent severe to extreme marine heatwave observed in 2022 south of Papua New Guinea in the Solomon and Coral Seas were still evident in 2023,but at lower categories(strong to severe),with less extension and for a shorter duration(about two months).Longitude90 E 120 E 150 E 180 150 W 120 WLatitude(a)(b)LatitudeLongitudeNo MHW Moderate Strong Severe Extreme Category0 30 60 90 120 150 180Day10 N10 S30 S50 S90 E 120 E 150 E 180 150 W 120 W10 N10 S30 S50 SFigure8.(a)Maximum categories of marine heatwaves,and(b)maximum duration of marine heatwaves in 2023.The colours in(a)indicate the highest category of marine heatwave for the year 2023 at each grid point,and the colours in(b)indicate the duration of the marine heatwave at the highest level for each grid point.Source:Mercator Ocean International,France,derived from the Copernicus Marine Service remote sensing products available at https:/doi.org/10.48670/moi-00168(for 19822022)and https:/doi.org/10.48670/moi-00165(for 2023)13AFFECTED POPULATION AND DAMAGEIn 2023,a total of 34 hydrometeorological hazard events were reported in the South-West Pacific according to the International Disaster Database(EM-DAT),35 of which over 90%were flood and storm events.These reported hydrometeorological hazard events resulted in over 200 fatalities,most of which were associated with floods,storms,and landslides(Figure9).Over 25 million people were directly affected by these hazards,and they caused total economic damage of close to US$4.4 billion.Floods were the leading cause of death,whereas drought was the natural hazard type that affected the greatest number of people.Storms were the hazard type that caused the greatest economic damage,followed by floods.In March,a landslide triggered by flooding in north-western Indonesia resulted in 54 fatalities,more than 2800displaced people36 and 27 buried houses.37 This disaster event caused the greatest number of fatalities in the South-West Pacific in 2023,highlighting the importance of understanding the multiple and cascading impacts of natural hazard events.Figure9.Overview of 2023 disasters in the South-West Pacific region.Note:The economic damages resulting from some disasters are not presented in the diagram due to data unavailability.Only cases reported in EM-DAT are considered in the diagram.Source:United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP)calculations based on EM-DAT data,accessed on 8 January 2024Climate-related impacts andrisks Flood47%Storm44%Landslide6%Drought3%Reported casesFlood41%Storm32%Landslide27athsPeople afectedFlood14%Storm14%Drought72onomic damageFlood43%Storm57STATUS OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS IN THE SOUTH-WEST PACIFICAccording to the Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2023 report,only half of the worlds countries are covered by an early warning system.Even in places where early warning systems exist,varying levels of maturity are seen across the four multi-hazard early warning system pillars of disaster risk knowledge,observations and forecasting,warning and dissemination,and preparedness to respond.38In the South-West Pacific region,13 countries(59%)reported on the status of their early warning system in the Sendai Framework Monitor(Figure10).The average of the composite score for Target G of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 20152030(IndicatorG-1,which measures the overall progress towards having a multi-hazard early warning system)was 0.57out of 1.It is of note that out of the 13 reporting countries,over 60%(eight countries)reported on all four key indicators(Indicators G-2 to G-5).These indicators are used to understand the comprehensiveness of each of the four pillars of an early warning system.The pillar which is the strongest is observations and forecasting;of the 12 countries which reported on this indicator,the average score was 0.83.The second-strongest pillar is warning and dissemination;of the 10 countries which reported on this indicator,the average score was 0.78.The pillar which most needs strengthening is disaster risk knowledge;only nine countries reported on this indicator,and the average score was 0.43,significantly lower Figure10.Sendai Target G scores of countries in the South-West Pacific region as of 2023,as reported by the countries themselves through the Sendai MonitorSource:United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR)0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00Composite scorePillar 1:Risk knowledgePillar 2:Observations and forecastingPillar 3:Warning and disseminationPillar 4:Preparedness to respondTuvaluNauruNew ZealandFijiVanuatuPhilippinesIndonesiaMalaysiaSolomon IslandsSamoaMicronesia,FederatedStates ofKiribatiAustraliaTarget G scores of countries in South-West Pacific region15than the average score for the other pillars.Ten countries reported on the remaining pillar,preparedness to respond,and the average score was 0.67.Based on the reporting,there is much room for improvement,especially with respect to disaster risk knowledge.It should also be noted that monitoring and progress reporting will be greatly improved if more countries report on all four indicators.EARLY WARNINGS AND ANTICIPATORY ACTION INTHESOUTH-WESTPACIFICWMO and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR)are co-leading the Early Warnings for All(EW4All)initiative to ensure that everyone on Earth is protected by early warnings by 2027.The EW4All Executive Action Plan39 was launched by United Nations Secretary-General Antnio Guterres at the twenty-seventh session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(COP27)in Sharm-El-Sheikh,Egypt in November 2022.Given the high benefits relative to costs and the high visibility of the EW4All initiative,early warnings and anticipatory action have been gaining momentum in the South-West Pacific region.One demonstrative case during 2023 was in Timor-Leste,where to address the growing agricultural drought,the government and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO)developed the Anticipatory Action Protocol for Agricultural Drought,which outlines the step-by-step process of connecting information from the Combined Drought Index(CDI)to anticipatory activities that will mitigate the expected impacts.The first phase of activities focused on communicating early warnings to drought-vulnerable communities and training to enhance their capacity for anticipatory drought management,including implementing community-specific anticipatory action plans tailored to individual villages.These plans were developed in partnership with local communities,and the activities in the plans included repairs to existing water-access systems,installing pumps and wa-ter-harvesting measures,expanding facilities for water storage,diversifying food production,cash-for-work schemes,and the allocation of multi-purpose cash through adaptive social protection measures for the most vulnerable households.Moving forward,customizing impact-based forecasting to meet sector needs,including developing and refining specific thresholds,is critical to improving the accuracy of the CDI model and to developing a more targeted approach to anticipatory action.CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIESBetween 1970 and 2021,about 1500 disasters due to weather,climate and water extremes were reported in the South-West Pacific.They resulted in approximately 67000 deaths and US$185.8billion in economic losses.Tropical cyclones were the leading cause of reported weather-and climate-related deaths.40 In March 2023,two tropical cyclones,Judy and Kevin hit Vanuatu,bringing destructive hurricane-force winds,heavy rainfall,thunderstorms,and rough seas.As a result,the homes of 19152 households were damaged,and 185000 people experienced disruptions to healthcare services.41 These figures highlight the critical importance 16of disaster risk reduction initiatives in the region.Data gathered from 22 Members in the South-West Pacific region through the WMO climate services checklist show that about 95%of Members provide climate predictions to support disaster risk reduction(Figure11).However,more can be done with regard to providing tailored products and climate projections for disaster risk reduction efforts.National Meteorological and Hydrological Services play a crucial role in delivering these products and services,yet at present,they are provided by fewer than 70%of WMO Members in the region.WMO Members in the South-West Pacific region have assessed their level of engagement with disaster risk reduction stakeholders using a scale from 1 to 6,where 1 represents“initial engagement”,and 6 represents“full engagement”.According to the available data,the average score across the region is 3.3,indicating that most of the engagement is in the initial stages.42 This suggests that the focus is primarily on identifying needs(between 1 and 3 on the scale),rather than on providing tailored products and services to address the requirements of the disaster risk reduction community(between 4 and 6 on the scale).There is an urgent need to advance efforts to provide these tailored products and services in order to effectively mitigate disaster risks and adapt to climate change.Furthermore,based on information from international financing sources for disaster-related activities in the Pacific between 2012 and 2020,data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)Creditor Reporting System(CRS)reveals that disaster risk reduction-related official development assistance(ODA)has fluctuated over the past decade,averaging around US$46 million per year.43 In the region,the majority of the funding,approximately 86%,is channelled through project-based interventions facilitated primarily Figure11.Percentage of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs)providing climate services fordisaster risk reduction Data servicesTailored productsNoYesNo data ClimatemonitoringClimate analysis and diagnosticsClimatepredictionsClimate changeprojections95hd%5%52%0%0%0%0%5%4by multilateral and bilateral donor organizations.Direct budget support and sector budget support each account for only 1%of the climate finance.44 The amount of climate finance mobilized in the Pacific has increased in recent years,in line with the rollout of the Green Climate Fund(GCF)and other flows from multilateral and bilateral development partners.45To ensure the success of the EW4ALL initiative in the South-West Pacific region,the WMO Regional Conference of Regional Association V(South-West Pacific)held in September 2022 recommended that consideration be given to establishing a special task group to analyse the current status of and critical gaps regarding early warning systems and that an initial action plan be developed in order to enable the regional association to move forward.In addition,the Weather Ready Pacific(WRP)Programme was endorsed by Pacific Leaders in 2021,and its implementation plan was adopted at the Pacific Island Forum(PIF)Leaders Meeting in November 2023.Pacific ministers responsible for Meteorological Services,at the Sixth Pacific Meteorological Council meeting in August 2023,concluded in the Namaka Declaration that“WRP will be the key vehicle for EW4All delivery in the Pacific”.Members and partners are now defining how EW4All can complement and supplement what is being taken forward under WRP to ensure that Pacific early warning systems are multi-hazard,people-centred,and end-to-end.18TEMPERATURE DATASix datasets(cited below)were used in the calculation of regional temperature.Regional mean temperature anomalies were calculated relative to 19611990 and 19912020 baselines using the following steps:1.Read the gridded dataset;2.Regrid the data to 1 latitude 1 longitude resolution.If the gridded data are higher resolution,take a mean of the grid boxes within each 1 1 grid box.If the gridded data are lower resolution,copy the low-resolution grid box value into each 1 1 grid box that falls inside the low-resolution grid box;3.For each month,calculate the regional area average using only those 1 1 grid boxes whose centres fall within the region;4.For each year,take the mean of the monthly area averages to obtain an annual area average;5.Calculate the mean of the annual area averages over the periods 19611990 and 19912020;6.Subtract the 30-year period average from each year.The following six datasets were used:Berkeley Earth:Rohde,R.A.;Hausfather,Z.The Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean Temperature Record.Earth System Science Data 2020,12,34693479.https:/doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3469-2020.The data are available here.ERA5:Hersbach,H.;Bell,B.;Berrisford,P.et al.ERA5 Monthly Averaged Data on Single Levels from 1940 to Present;Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S)Climate Data Store(CDS),2023.https:/doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7.GISTEMP v4:GISTEMP Team,2022:GISS Surface Temperature Analysis(GISTEMP),version 4.NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,https:/data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.Lenssen,N.;Schmidt,G.;Hansen,J.et al.Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2019,124,63076326.https:/doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029522.The data are available here.HadCRUT.5.0.2.0:Morice,C.P.;Kennedy,J.J.;Rayner,N.A.et al.An Updated Assessment of Near-Surface Temperature Change From 1850:The HadCRUT5 Data Set.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2021,126,e2019JD032361.https:/doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032361.HadCRUT.5.0.2.0 data were obtained from http:/www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5 on 17 January 2024 and are British Crown Copyright,Met Office 2024,provided under an Open Government Licence,http:/www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/.JRA-55:Kobayashi,S.;Ota,Y.;Harada,Y.et al.The JRA-55 Reanalysis:General Specifications and Basic Characteristics.Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan.Ser.II 2015,93,548.https:/doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001.The data are available here.NOAA Interim:Vose,R.S.;Huang,B.;Yin,X.et al.Implementing Full Spatial Coverage in NOAAs Global Temperature Analysis.Geophysical Research Letters 2021,48,e2020GL090873.https:/doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090873.Datasets and methods19PRECIPITATION DATAThe following Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC)datasets were used in the analysis:First Guess Monthly,https:/doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FG_M_100 Monitoring Product(Version 2022),https:/doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/MP_M_V2022_100 Full Data Monthly(Version 2022),https:/doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V2022_100 Precipitation Climatology(Version 2022),https:/doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/CLIM_M_V2022_100 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DATAData are from the in situ-based product Multi Observation Global Ocean 3D Temperature Salinity Height Geostrophic Current and MLD,downloaded from Copernicus Marine Service.SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATAData are from the Copernicus Marine Service remote sensing products Global Ocean OSTIA Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Reprocessed for 19822021 and Global Ocean OSTIA Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis for 2022,downloaded from the Copernicus Marine Service.SEA LEVEL DATARegional sea-level trends are based on gridded C3S altimetry data,averaged from 50km offshore to the coast,by the Laboratory of Space Geophysical and Oceanographic Studies(LEGOS).EXTREME EVENTS DATAMeteorological characteristics and statistics are based on reports from WMO Members in Regional Association V(South-West Pacific).Associated socioeconomic impacts are based on reports from WMO Members,EM-DAT data(see below)and reports from United Nations organizations.EM-DAT DATAEM-DAT data(www.emdat.be)were used for historical climate impact calculations.EM-DAT is a global database on natural and technological disasters,containing essential core data on the occurrence and effects of more than 21 000 disasters in the world from 1900 to the present.EM-DAT is maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters(CRED)at the School of Public Health of the Universit catholique de Louvain,located in Brussels,Belgium.The indicators used for mortality,number of people affected and economic damage were total deaths,number affected and total damages(in thousands of US dollars),respectively.20CLIMATE SERVICESWMO analysis of nationally determined contributionsChecklist for Climate Services Implementation(Members climate services capacities,based on responses to this Checklist,can be viewed here)WMO Hydrology Survey,20202020 State of Climate Services:Risk Information and Early Warning Systems(WMO-No.1252)2021 State of Climate Services:Water(WMO-No.1278)21CONTRIBUTING EXPERTS(IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER BY SURNAME)Gregor Macara(lead author,New Zealand),Soomi Hong(lead author,United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP),Sanjay Srivastava(lead author,ESCAP),Blair Trewin(co-lead author,Australia),Thea Turkington(co-lead author,Singapore),Rusali Agrawal(ESCAP),Rachel Allen(World Food Programme(WFP),Nurizana Amir Aziz(Malaysia),Omar Baddour(WMO),Arieta Daphen Baleisolomone(Fiji),Joseph Basconcillo(Philippines),Jessica Blunden(United States of America),Anny Cazenave(Laboratory of Space Geophysical and Oceanographic Studies(LEGOS),Elise Chandler(Australia),Xuan Che(United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR),Sarah Diouf(WMO),Ahmad Fairudz(Malaysia),Atsushi Goto(WMO),Veronica Grasso(WMO),Flora Gues(Mercator Ocean International),Peer Hechler(WMO),Christopher Hewitt(WMO),Erkin Isaev(Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO),Zaridah Mohd Jalal(Malaysia),Catherine Jones(FAO),Animesh Kumar(UNDRR),Konamauri Lenny(Solomon Islands),Lancelot Leclercq(LEGOS),Jacqueline Lim(Singapore),Jochen Luther(WMO),Amirui Nizam Marodzi(Malaysia),Nakiete Msemo(WMO),Arona Ngari(Cook Islands),Claire Ransom(WMO),Karina von Schuckmann(Mercator Ocean International),Jose Alvaro Silva(WMO),Ana Liza Solis(Philippines),Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan(Indonesia),Jothiganesh Sundaram(WFP),Tessa Tafua(WMO),Henry Taiki(WMO),Naina Tanwar(ESCAP),Markus Ziese(Germany)EXPERT TEAM ON CLIMATE MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT(REVIEWERS)John Kennedy(lead,United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland),Jessica Blunden(co-lead,USA),Randall S.Cerveny(USA),Ladislaus Benedict Changa(United Republic of Tanzania),Liudmila Kolomeets(Russian Federation),Renata Libonati(Brazil),Atsushi Minami(Japan),Awatif Ebrahim Mostafa(Egypt),Serhat Sensoy(Trkiye),Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan(Indonesia),Jose Luis Stella(Argentina),Blair Trewin(Australia),Freja Vamborg(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),Zhiwei Zhu(China)CONTRIBUTING ORGANIZATIONSFAO,LEGOS,Mercator Ocean International,ESCAP,UNDRR,WFP,WMOCONTRIBUTING WMO MEMBERS(IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)Australia,Cook Islands,Fiji,Indonesia,Malaysia,New Zealand,Philippines,Singapore,Solomon Islands,USAList of contributors221 Data are from the following datasets:Berkeley Earth,ERA5,GISTEMP v4,HadCRUT.5.0.1.0,JRA-55,NOAAGlobalTemp v5.For details regarding these,see the datasets and methods section in the State of the Global Climate 2023(WMO-No.1347).2 World Meteorological Organization(WMO).State of the Global Climate 2023(WMO-No.1347).Geneva,2024.3 http:/www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/mlo.html4 https:/www.csiro.au/greenhouse-gases/5 Friedlingstein,P.;OSullivan,M.;Jones,M.W.et al.Global Carbon Budget 2022,Earth System Science Data,14.48114900.https:/doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022.6 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Summary for Policymakers.In IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate;Prtner,H.-O.;Roberts,D.C.;Masson-Delmotte,V.et al.,Eds.;Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,UK and New York,USA,2019.https:/www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2022/03/01_SROCC_SPM_FINAL.pdf.7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate;Prtner,H.-O.;Roberts,D.C.;Masson-Delmotte,V.et al.,Eds.;Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,UK and New York,USA,2019.https:/www.ipcc.ch/srocc/.8 The South-West Pacific(WMO Regional Association V)is a vast region composed of:Australia,Brunei Darussalam,Cook Islands,Federated States of Micronesia,Fiji,French Polynesia,Indonesia,Kiribati,Malaysia,Nauru,New Caledonia,New Zealand,Niue,Papua New Guinea,Philippines,Samoa,Singapore,Solomon Islands,Timor-Leste,Tonga,Tuvalu and Vanuatu.9 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;Masson-Delmotte,V.;Zhai,P.;Pirani,A.et al.,Eds.;Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,UK and New York,USA,2021.https:/www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/.10 Further information on the climate drivers described in this section is available through the Australian Bureau of Meteorology at http:/www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/.11 Only five datasets where all the data were available were used in the assessment relative to 19611990.12 New Zealand snow depths are expressed with respect to the average of all years of available data,starting in 2010 at most locations.13 Gulev,S.K.;Thorne,P.W.;Ahn,J.et al.Changing State of the Climate System.In:Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;Masson-Delmotte,V.;Zhai,P.;Pirani,A.et al.Eds.;Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,UK and New York,USA,2021.https:/www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/.14 See,for example,Bindoff,N.L.;Cheung,W.W.L.;Kairo,J.G.et al.Changing Ocean,Marine Ecosystems,and Dependent Communities.In IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate;Prtner,H.-O.;Roberts,D.C.;Masson-Delmotte,V.et al.Eds.;Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,UK,and New York,USA,2019.https:/www.ipcc.ch/srocc/.15 Deser,C.;Alexander,M.A.;Xie,S.-P.et al.Sea Surface Temperature Variability:Patterns and Mechanisms.Annual Review of Marine Science 2010,2,115143.https:/www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453.16 Copernicus Marine Service(CMEMS),Ocean Monitoring Indicator Framework.https:/marine.copernicus.eu/access-data/ocean-monitoring-indicators/global-ocean-sea-surface-temperature-time-series-and-trend.17 von Schuckmann,K.;Cheng,L.;Palmer,M.D.et al.Heat Stored in the Earth System:Where Does the Energy Go?Earth System Science Data 2020,12(3),20132041.https:/doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020.18 WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group.Global Sea-Level Budget 1993Present.Earth System Science Data 2018,10(3),15511590.https:/doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018.19 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Global warming of 1.5C.An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5C Above Pre-industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways,in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change,Sustainable Development,and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty;Masson-Delmotte,V.;Zhai,P.;Prtner,H.O.et al.,Eds.;Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,UK andNew York,USA,2018.https:/www.ipcc.ch/sr15/.Endnotes2320 Li,G.;Cheng,L.;Zhu,J.et al.Increasing Ocean Stratification over the Past Half-century.Nature Climate Change 2020,10,11161123.https:/doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00918-2.21 Cheng,L.;Trenberth,K.E.;Fasullo,J.T.et al.Evolution of Ocean Heat Content Related to ENSO.Journal of Climate 2019,32(12),35293556.https:/doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0607.1.22 World Meteorological Organization(WMO).Significant Weather and Climate Events in 2023;WMO,2023.https:/wmo.int/sites/default/files/2023-12/Supplement.pdf.23 https:/reliefweb.int/report/vanuatu/vanuatu-tropical-cyclones-judy-update-and-kevin-gdacs-jtwc-vmgd-media-echo-daily-flash-06-march-202324 https:/reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-taiwan-china-tropical-cyclone-doksuri-gdacs-jtwc-pagasa-adinet-echo-daily-flash-24-july-2023.25 https:/reliefweb.int/disaster/tc-2023-000121-chn,with additional information from EM-DAT(http:/www.emdat.be)26 https:/reliefweb.int/disaster/tc-2023-000121-chn27 Council for International Development.End of South Pacific Cyclone Season Report 20222023;Council for International Development,2023.https:/reliefweb.int/report/vanuatu/end-south-pacific-cyclone-season-report-2022-2023.28 New Zealand Treasury.Impacts from the North Island Weather Events;New Zealand Treasury,2023.https:/www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2023-04/impacts-from-the-north-island-weather-events.pdf.29 https:/ Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management(AHA Centre).ASEAN Disaster Information Network(ADINet).Indonesia,Landslides in Natuna Regency(Riau Islands);AHA Centre,2023.https:/adinet.ahacentre.org/report/indonesia-landslides-in-natuna-regency-riau-islands-20230306.31 Davies,R.Indonesia Heavy Rain Triggers Deadly Landslides in Riau Islands;FloodList,2023.https:/ https:/ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)National Centers for Environmental Information(NCEI).U.S.Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters;NOAA NCEI,2024.https:/www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events/US/2023?disasters=wildfire.34 Hobday,A.J.;Oliver,E.C.J.;Sen Gupta,A.et al.Categorizing and Naming Marine Heatwaves.Oceanography 2018,31(2),162173.https:/www.jstor.org/stable/26542662.35 https:/www.emdat.be/Note:Only meteorological,hydrological,and climatological hazards are included.36 https:/adinet.ahacentre.org/report/indonesia-landslides-in-natuna-regency-riau-islands-2023030637 https:/reliefweb.int/report/indonesia/indonesia-landslide-update-bmkg-bnpb-echo-daily-flash-09-march-202338 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR);World Meteorological Organization(WMO).Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2023;UNDRR:Geneva,2023.https:/www.undrr.org/reports/global-status-MHEWS-2023#download.39 World Meteorological Organization(WMO).Early Warnings for All.The UN Global Early Warning Initiative for the Implementation of Climate Adaptation.Executive Action Plan 2023-2027;WMO:Geneva,2022.40 World Meteorological Organization(WMO).Economic Costs of Weather-related Disasters Soars but Early Warnings Save Lives Press release.22May2023.41 https:/reliefweb.int/report/world/pacific-islands-ifrc-network-mid-year-report-january-june-2023-19-december-202342 World Meteorological Organization(WMO).2023 State of Climate Services:Health(WMO-No.1335).Geneva,2023.2443 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR).Disaster Risk Reduction Financing in Asia and the Pacific:Scoping Study for the Midterm Review of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 20152030;UNDRR,2023.https:/www.undrr.org/publication/disaster-risk-reduction-financing-asia-and-pacific-scoping-study-midterm-review-sendai44 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR).Disaster Risk Reduction Financing in Asia and the Pacific:Scoping Study for the Midterm Review of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 20152030;UNDRR,2023.https:/www.undrr.org/publication/disaster-risk-reduction-financing-asia-and-pacific-scoping-study-midterm-review-sendai45 United Nations Development Programme(UNDP).Climate Finance Effectiveness in the Pacific:Are We on the Right Track?Discussion Paper;UNDP,2021.UNDP-Climate-Finance-Effectiveness-in-the-Pacific-Disussion-Paper.pdf.For more information,please contact:World Meteorological Organization7 bis,avenue de la Paix P.O.Box 2300 CH 1211 Geneva 2 SwitzerlandStrategic Communications Office Cabinet Office of the Secretary-GeneralTel: 41(0)22 730 83 14 Fax: 41(0)22 730 80 27Email:communicationswmo.int wmo.intJN 24831
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