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全球市场概览.pdf

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1、Copyright 2013 AgResource Company.All Rights Reserved.vCopyright 2025 AgResource Company.All Rights Reserved.Copyright 2013 AgResource Company.All Rights Reserved.vCopyright 2025 AgResource Company.All Rights Reserved.2025KARA LEEEMCEECopyright 2013 AgResource Company.All Rights Reserved.vCopyright

2、2025 AgResource Company.All Rights Reserved.Copyright 2013 AgResource Company.All Rights Reserved.vCopyright 2025 AgResource Company.All Rights Reserved.2025DAN BASSEGLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEWCopyright 2013 AgResource Company.All Rights Reserved.vCopyright 2025 AgResource Company.All Rights Reserved.Two

3、 Sides of the Fence in AgricultureDaniel Basse,President AgResource Chicago ILCopyright 2013 AgResource Company.All Rights Reserved.vCopyright 2025 AgResource Company.All Rights Reserved.The Push for Protein;Two Sides of the Fence World Geopolitics are fast changing,with the power centers in Washing

4、ton and Beijing.The world is now a duopoly of geopolitical/economic influence.The US is trying to realign world trade flows and assure itself of trade opportunities through tariffs.The question is:Can the US ensure improved ag exports through tariffs to battle cheaper grain/oilseeds from South Ameri

5、ca and the Black Sea?World Grain farmers are economically struggling as profit margins fall amid sinking grain prices while costs(seed/equipment/land cost)stay elevated.Northern Hemisphere farmers are beginning to harvest record-large crops,with fresh demand drivers needed to alter prevailing bearis

6、h trends.Unless the Trump Administration mandates E15,the struggle of grain farmers will persist.The year ahead will be difficult for the grain farmer/banker as financial stress builds.Protein Producers:Cattle,Pork and Dairy Industries benefit from near insatiable demand.Rapidly rising US disposable

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根据报告的内容,全文主要围绕农业经济和国际贸易展开,以下为关键点: 1. 地缘政治变化:世界正变为美中双极地缘经济影响格局,美国通过关税调整贸易流。 2. 农业经济困境:全球谷物农民利润下降,成本高企,需新需求驱动。 3. 蛋白质生产:牛肉、猪肉和乳制品行业因需求旺盛而受益,美国牛肉价格创纪录。 4. 贸易问题:贸易是农业面临的最大问题,美国农业收入受贸易政策影响。 5. 美国农业收入:2025年预计为1801亿美元,其中31亿美元为灾害援助。 6. 贸易赤字:美国年度贸易赤字高达1400亿美元,关税收入43-48亿美元。 7. 地缘政治格局变化:从冷战后的单极世界到现在的美中大国竞争。 8. 中国经济:食品消费停滞,玉米进口减少,对美农产品需求放缓。 9. 粮食生产趋势:全球小麦产量下降,非洲和印度成为增长故事。 10. 美国农业:成为全球粮食储备库,玉米库存增加,价格可能下降。
中美博弈下的挑战" 需求驱动下的牛市" 政策与天气的双重影响"
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