光学光电子行业深度：海外观察系列三美股激光雷达隐喻-220530（25页）.pdf

1、Equity Research Industry Research Optical Optoelectronics Optical Optoelectronics Industry Research 1 / 25 东吴证券东吴证券（香港香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 Overseas Observation Series 3: The metaphors from the U.S. lidar stocks Outperform (Maintain) Investment Thesis The U.S. lidar manufacturers went

2、 public successively since 2020. We view them as pioneering benchmarks for Chinas lidar industry research. We picked five companies that went public in the early days as benchmarks: Velodyne (mechanical route), Ouster (hybrid solid-state route), Luminar, Aeva and Innoviz (pure solid-state route). Th

3、e profit and cash flow of each company has not turned positive yet. The five companies revenues initially divided and market values varied widely. Luminar ranks the first among these five in term of market value. The company generated $32 million revenue and -$238 million profits in 2021. Technical

4、route, product positioning, financial data and stock performance of the U.S. lidar manufacturers are key factors to pay attention to. Metaphor 1: Demand potential of lidar is huge in the long-run, but in the short term, we would suggest investors to follow domestic lidar installation volumes. Lidar

5、provides safety redundancy in intelligent driving as the core sensor, contributing to an inelastic demand. Lidar can fill the gaps of cameras and millimeter-wave radar regarding reaction speed, application scenarios, and detail processing. Multi-sensor fusion becomes the future trend. 2022 is the fi

6、rst year of domestic lidar installations. With the launch of key models such as NIO ET7, Ideal L9, and Xiaopeng G9, we expect sales volume of models equipped with lidar to exceed 200,000 in 2022. Although lidar market in domestic passenger car is still small in 2022 (260 million dollars based on our