新兴市场中的货币政策传导：传统的担忧新颖的证据.pdf

1、Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets:Proverbial Concerns,Novel EvidenceAriadne Checo,Francesco Grigoli,and Damiano SandriIMF Annual Research Conference November 15th2024The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS or the IMF.2Research questionHow

2、much traction does monetary policy(MP)have in emerging market economies(EMEs)?Context Major progress in the assessment of MP transmission in advanced economies(AEs)Evidence about transmission in EMEs is much more limitedFocusing on EMEs is especially important given proverbial concerns about MP tran

3、smission Limited financial market development Currency mismatches Limited institutional credibility 3EMEs sensitivity to global financial conditionsThe literature on the global financial cycle casts further doubts on MP traction in EMEs EMEs are highly sensitive to US monetary policy,even under flex

4、 exchange rates (Rey,2015;Dedola et al 2017;Iacoviello and Navarro,2019;Kalemli-zcan,2019;Miranda-Agrippino and Rey,2020)EME bond yields rise after a US MP tightening despite EMEs tend to loosen MP (De Leo,Gopinath and Kalemli-zcan,2022;Degasperi,Hong and Ricco,2020)Does this imply impaired transmis

5、sion?Not necessarily4Global spillovers do not necessarily imply impaired MP transmission in EMEsUS MP tightening may destabilize EMEs Traditional view:EME exchange rate depreciations should boost external demand(Mundell,1963;Fleming,1962;Obstfeld and Rogoff,1995)Yet,effects could be muted under doll

6、ar pricing (Gopinath,Boz,Casas,Dez,Gourinchas and Plagborg-Mller,2020)and even turn contractionary under FX mismatches and shallow financial markets(Aghion,Bacchetta,and Banerjee,2001;Cavallino and Sandri,2023)But MP easing in EMEs may still retain expansionary effects through domestic demand(Gourin