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波士顿:对华贸易限制如何结束美国在半导体领域的领导地位(英文版)(42页).pdf

上传人: 孔明 编号:17637 2020-08-21 42页 612.84KB

1、 1 BCG | HOW TRADE RESTRICTIONS WITH CHINA COULD END US LEADERSHIP IN SEMICONDUCTORS ABOUT THIS REPORT To assess how ongoing US-China trade frictions may affect the US semiconductor industry, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) commissioned Boston Consulting Group to conduct an independent

2、study. The work included detailed modeling of the global demand and supply dynamics across end application markets and semiconductor product categories. BCG is wholly responsible for the analysis and conclusions that appear in this report. ABOUT BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP Boston Consulting Group (BCG)

3、is a leading global management consulting firm, with offices in over 50 countries. BCG partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963. Today, we hel

4、p clients with total transformationinspiring complex change, enabling organizations to grow, building competitive advantage, and driving bottom-line impact. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Antonio VarasAntonio Varas is a managing director and senior partner in the Silicon Valley office of Boston Consulting Group

5、and is a core member of its Technology, Media China could attain leadership in the long term. As experience in communications network equipment and other tech sectors has shown, once the US loses its global leadership position, this dynamic effectively reverses the industrys virtuous innovation cycl

6、e and throws US companies into a downward spiral of rapidly declining competitiveness and shrinking market share and margins. Lower R adaptive processing for multiple antennas and frequencies, for robust battlefield communication and radar systems Directed energy Advanced imagers, optoelectronic tec

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本文由波士顿咨询集团撰写,探讨了中美贸易摩擦对美国半导体产业的影响。主要观点如下: 1. 半导体产业对美国至关重要,它推动了信息通信技术革命,对经济增长和国家安全至关重要。 2. 2018年,中国占全球半导体需求的23%,预计到2025年,中国半导体自给率将提高到25-40%,这将减少美国在全球市场的份额2-5个百分点。 3. 如果美国维持当前对中国的技术出口限制,美国半导体公司可能会失去全球市场份额的8个百分点,收入下降16%。如果完全禁止向中国销售,美国公司可能会失去全球市场份额的18个百分点,收入下降37%。 4. 这些收入下降将不可避免地导致美国半导体行业大幅削减研发和资本支出,并可能失去15,000至40,000个高技能工作岗位。 5. 长期来看,中国可能取代美国成为全球半导体领导者,这将逆转行业的创新循环,削弱美国公司的竞争力。 6. 为避免这些负面结果,政策制定者需要找到同时解决国家安全关切和保持美国半导体公司全球市场准入的解决方案。
美国半导体行业面临哪些挑战? 中美贸易摩擦如何影响美国半导体行业? 如何确保美国半导体行业的持续领先地位?
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