Race and Immigration Zoltan Hajnal.pdf

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1、Zoltan HajnalIMMIGRATION AND WHITE BACKLASHIMMIGRATION IS TRANSFORMING AMERICALarge scale immigrationImmigrants and their children represent a quarter of the populationRacial changeLatinos replace blacks as largest minorityWhites will lose their majority status by 2050THIS DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATION

2、 RAISES BOTH HOPES AND FEARSImmigrants could fill a vital economic role,enrich culture,lead to greater acceptance of diversity,diminished role for race/ethnicityBut transformation also raises fears about jobs,welfare,and culture,could heighten racial/ethnic tensions,lead to backlashIS IMMIGRATION TR

3、ANSFORMING OUR POLITICS?If immigration and racial change raise fears about jobs,welfare,and cultureIf immigration and race are being infused into debates about policy and parties.The result could be a broad conservative backlash among whitesTHE LOGIC IN SHORTWhites see that America is changingMany b

4、elieve that immigration is driving negative changesThe Republican Party offers much stronger opposition to immigrationFor many,this is a powerful motivation to defect to the Republican Party VIEWS OF IMMIGRANTS AND WHITE PARTISAN CHOICETHE ESTIMATED EFFECT OF IMMIGRATION ON WHITE PARTISANSHIP 33.544

5、.55Predicted Partisanship-3-2-1012Anti-Immigrant Views -Pro-Immigrant ViewsConfidence IntervalPredicted ValuesParty IdentificationIS IMMIGRATION LEADING TO GREATER WHITE SUPPORT FOR REPUBLICANS OVER TIME?MORE EVIDENCE THAT IMMIGRATION MATTERSIndividual Americans with more negative views on immigrati

6、on today are more likely to shift to the Republican Party tomorrowNational media coverage of immigration in predicts future shifts in the partisan balance of power across the countryStates with more Latinos tend to have less generous polici