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麦肯锡(McKinsey):中国和世界:在不断变化的关系中发挥作用(英文版)(168页).pdf

上传人: Me****y 编号:16339 2020-08-01 168页 8.23MB

1、China and the world Inside the dynamics of a changing relationship July 2019 McKinsey Global Institute Since its founding in 1990, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has sought to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. As the business and economics research arm of McKinsey i

2、t is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. For further information about MGI and to download reports, please visit China and the world: Inside the dynamics of a changing relationship Authors Jonathan Woetzel, Shanghai Jeongmin Seong, Shanghai Nick Leung, Hong Kong Joe N

3、gai, Hong Kong James Manyika, San Francisco Anu Madgavkar, Mumbai Susan Lund, Washington, DC Andrey Mironenko, Sydney July 2019 The relationship between China and the rest of the world appears to be entering a new phase. Chinas economic miracle was fueled by industry and investment, but today domest

4、ic consumption is the main driving force of growth. The country is becoming less exposed in economic terms to the rest of the world. However, reflecting Chinas rise to being the worlds second-largest economy and its leading trading nation, the rest of the world is becoming more exposed to China. The

5、se shifts have been accompanied by trade tensions and rising protectionism in many countries, raising the question whether we have reached a point of peak integration between China and the world. In this report, we look at the extent of Chinas global scale and integration, and highlight the findings

6、 of the new McKinsey Global Institute China-World Exposure Index. We examine the exposure of sectors and countries to the China-world relationship, with particular emphasis on the technology and consumer sectors. Finally, we simulate what value might be at stake for China and the rest of the world f

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本文主要探讨了中国与世界经济关系的动态变化。主要观点如下: 1. 中国已成为全球规模的经济体,但在全球一体化方面仍有提升空间。中国是全球最大的商品贸易国,但大多数中国企业的收入仍主要来自国内市场。 2. 中国与世界经济关系正在发生变化。根据麦肯锡全球研究院的中国-世界曝光指数,中国对世界的曝光度在下降,而世界对中国的曝光度在上升。这反映了中国的经济重心正在向国内消费转移。 3. 中国在技术价值链上高度全球化。在81项技术中,90%以上遵循全球标准。尽管中国玩家在某些领域快速增长,但仍依赖进口关键组件,如电动汽车的功率电子和机器人的减速齿轮。 4. 中国消费市场迅速扩张,为国内外企业提供了巨大机会。到2030年,58%的中国家庭可能进入“中产阶级”或更高阶层。 5. 模拟显示,2040年,中国与世界在五个领域的更少或更多参与可能涉及22至37万亿美元的经济价值。 6. 企业可能需要调整策略,以应对中国与世界关系变化带来的不确定性。
中国与世界关系如何变化? 中国技术价值链如何融入全球? 中国消费市场对全球有何影响?
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