【研报】化工行业：燃料油出口退税政策获批中国炼厂的大机会-20200223[30页].pdf

1、 / 2020122 1 1218 2 IMO 2020 IMO 2020 IMO 2020 3 EPS PE 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 4.78 0.49 0.53 0.54 9.76 9.02 8.85 5.38 0.30 0.33 0.36 17.93 16.30 14.94 16.34 1.42 1.82 2.08 11.51 8.98 7.86 10.91 0.43 0.86 1.11 25.37 12.69 9.83 14.09 1.45 1.68 1.97 9.72 8.39 7.15 -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 2

2、019/2 2019/3 2019/4 2019/5 2019/6 2019/7 2019/8 2019/9 2019/10 2019/11 2019/12 2020/1 % 1M 3M 12M -4.08% 10.81% 13.69% -2.21% 5.64% -8.44% 355 33871 25186 13.87 1.52 48806 1816 % 49.99 2020 2019-11-22 2019-11-03 PTAVS PTA 2019-11-01 2020-02-23 2 / 30 1. IMO 2020“” . 4 1.1. IMO 2020. 4 1.1.1.IMO . 4

3、1.1.2.IMO 2020 . 4 1.1.3.IMO 2020 . 6 2. IMO 2020 . 8 2.1. or . 10 2.1.1.17% . 10 2.1.2.LSFOV .S.MGO . 12 2.1.3.LNG. 14 2.2. . 14 2.2.1. 14 2.2.2. 17 2.2.3. 19 2.3. IMO 2020 . 21 2.3.1. 21 2.3.2. . 22 3. . 24 3.1. . 24 3.1.1.“”“” . 24 3.1.2. . 25 3.2. . 26 3.3. 20202000 . 27 3.3.1.20201815. 27 3.3.2

4、. 28 3 / 30 1IMO . 5 2201670% . 8 3. 9 42016 . 9 5. 11 6 . 12 72013/2019/2019 . 13 82019Q4HSFO V.S. LSFO/LSMGO. 13 92018. 13 102018 . 13 11. 15 12 . 15 132020-2024. 19 14. 20 15 CLGLC LSFO . 21 16 IMO 2020 . 22 17 . 24 182017 . 24 19 . 26 1. 4 2. 6 3 . 10 40.5%. 16 50.5%-2.0% . 16 62.0%. 17 72017-20

5、20 . 18 8 . 20 9. 20 10 . 25 11 . 27 4 / 30 1. IMO 2020 1.1. 1.1.1. IMO IMO 195916 2080IMO 1999IMO MEPC 1.1.2. IMO 2020 MEPC 1988 MARPOL73/781997 2005519 2006 MARPOL“” 4 1 2006519 5744.82005/33/EC 1999/32/EC2006811 1.5% 20057MARPOL 73/78 624 5744.854830 200711222005/33/EC1999/32/EC 2007811 20103MARP

6、OL 73/7820128 1 1%201511 5 / 30 0.1%200 50201111 MARPOL 73/7813201611 20106201411 1IMO 20161027IMOMEPC70 2020110.5%m/m 201810MEPC 73 2020110.5%m/m 0.1%m/m202031 A. B. C. D. IMO 2020 MARPOLVI136 98% 6 / 30 2 2012-01-01 3.5% 2020-01-01 0.5% 2010-07-01 1.0% 2015-01-01 0.1% 2012-08-01 1.0% 2015-01-01 0.