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联合国:2026人工智能问题独立国际科学小组的初步报告:对人工智能带来的机遇、风险和影响的询证评估(英文版)(59页).pdf

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1、Preliminary Report of the Independent International Scientific Panel on AIEvidence-based assessment of opportunities,risks and impacts of artificial intelligenceJuly 2026Preliminary Report of the Independent International Scientific Panel on AI:Evidence-based assessment of opportunities,risks and im

2、pacts of artificial intelligenceCopyright 2026 United NationsAll rights reserved worldwide.No part of this publication may,for commercial purposes,be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic or mechanical,including photocopy,recording or any information storage and retrieval

3、system now known or to be invented,without written permission by the publisher.Requests to reproduce excerpts or to photocopy should be addressed to the Copyright Clearance Center at .All other queries on rights and licenses,including subsidiary rights,should be addressed to:United Nations Publicati

4、ons,405 East 42nd Street,S-11FW001,New York,NY 10017,United States of America.Email:permissionsun.org.Website:shop.un.org.The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the Uni

5、ted Nations concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area,or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Print ISBN:9789211576627 PDF ISBN:9789211550771Preliminary Report of the Independent International Scientific Panel on AIEvidence-based as

6、sessment of opportunities,risks and impacts of artificial intelligenceJuly 2026Girmaw Abebe TadesseEthiopiaAwa Bousso DramCabo VerdeVukosi MarivateSouth AfricaJohanna PirkerAustriaJolle BarralFranceHoda HeidariIslamic Republic of IranYutaka MatsuoJapanMaria RessaPhilippinesCo-ChairTuka AlhanaiUnited

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1. **AI能力快速演进**:AI在数学推理(FrontierMath从19%升至88%)、科学推理(GPQA Diamond从36%升至95%)等关键领域性能激增,但评估方法滞后,存在欺骗、测试环境识别等风险。 2. **资源高度集中**:全球75%的AI算力集中于美国,中美企业主导前沿模型开发(91%来自私营部门),加剧技术垄断与全球不平等。 3. **应用与风险并存**:AI在医疗(如糖尿病筛查)、科学(AlphaFold预测2亿蛋白质结构)等领域带来显著效益,但也引发深度伪造、心理健康危害(如AI强化错误信念致人死亡)及治理挑战。 4. **治理能力不足**:仅少数国家具备AI评估与治理能力,118国未参与主要AI治理讨论;代理式AI(自主行动系统)失控风险凸显,需动态评估与人类监督机制。 5. **发展不均衡**:全球超10亿人使用对话式AI,但全球南方国家 adoption 落后;语言多样性未被充分覆盖(7000余种语言中仅小部分纳入训练),需针对性投资。
AI风险何在? 谁掌控AI? AI如何造福?
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