韩国央行：2026韩国经济展望报告（2月版）（英文版）（57页）.pdf

1、Korea Economic OutlookGrowth Rebounds to 2%Amid Sectoral Imbalance2026.2 This report is the English version of the“Korea Economic Outlook”published on March 6,2026.Please contact the Research Department at the email address below if you have any questions regarding the contents or would like to requ

2、est permission in advance for reproducing or copying the contents of this report for commercial purposes.Please credit the source when quoting,reproducing,or copying the contents of this report for non-commercial purposes.Research Department,Business Cycle Team,Bank of Korea econtrendbok.or.kr Conte

3、nts Executive Summary Macroeconomic Conditions and Outlook 1.Domestic and International Economic Conditions Global Economy Koreas Economy Main Premises of the Baseline Outlook 2.Macroeconomic Outlook for Korea Economic Growth Current Account Prices Employment 3.Risk Assessment Key Risks to the Outlo

4、ok Distribution of Growth Projections by Market Participants Scenario Analysis 1 1 13 19 20 20 30 32 34 37 37 37 38 AI Technology Advances and Semiconductor Outlook Consumption Momentum Indicator Adjusted for Business Day Effects and Weather Conditions 4 22 Box Quarterly Forecasts for the One-Year-A

5、head Horizon 39 i Executive Summary The Korean economy is projected to expand by 2.0%in 2026,underpinned by the strengthened semiconductor cycle upturn and a stronger-than-expected global economic backdrop,despite the impact of U.S.tariffs and a sluggish recovery in construction investment.CPI infla

6、tion is expected at 2.2%,slightly above the previous forecast,as cost increases in certain items,such as electronic devices and insurance premiums,have added to inflationary pressures,while demand-side pressures remain subdued.(%,%p)2024 20251)2026e)1)2027e)1)GDP growth rate 2.0 1.0()2.0(+0.2)1.8(-0