决策的艺术、科学与心理学.pdf

1、The Art,Science and Psychology of Decision Making Hannes Ricklefs Head of Architecture“Decision making is arguably the most important job of the senior executive and one of the easiest to get wrong!”HBR-What You Dont know about Making Decisions D.Garvin and M.RobertoWhy?We take the least productive

2、approach:advocacyInstead?From advocacy to inquirySo what is going on?Importance of Process“Process,Analysis and Industry variables explain decision-making effectiveness”Lovallo&Olivier-The case for behavioural strategy-201039%8%53%Quality of ProcessQuantity of AnalysisIndustry VariablesAdding Option

3、s“83 decisions by executive board over 18 month in medium sized EU firm”Gemunden&Hauschild-19852 Options3 OptionsPoor83%26%Satisfactory16%41%Very good0%33%TeamOrganisationIndividualThe Art of Decision MakingDataProcessReasoningScience Psychology MeEducation BSc Computer Science MSc Computer Animatio

4、nGardeningFrame of referenceEducation&Work Family&FriendLife EventsInterest&Hobbies&PassionMethods to understand differences:CliftonStrength,TetraMapping,Functional Fluency,Myres-Briggs,Enneagram,etc.Spontaneous,positive,possibilities,inspire,fun future,colourful,variety (Easily distracted,too casua

5、l,neglects practicality)Caring,considerate,consistent,loyal,feeling,patience,harmony&flow (Hesitant,neglects objectives,sensitivity)Decisive,facts,bold,confident,goals,control,achievement,winning (Too demanding,neglects feelings,blunt)Orderly,focused,logical solutions,accuracy,quality (Critical,negl

6、ects big picture,too particular)Know your team to know what you might trip into 831410Transactional analysisBe Perfect Please Others Hurry Up Be Strong Try HardPACPACEgo States Drivers I am OK You are OKOK CorralI am not OK You are not OKI am OK You are not OKI am not OK You are OKOriginated by Eric