杰富瑞Jefferies:亚太(除日本外)替代能源行业研究:韩国电动车产业链调研 – 重新聚焦ESS作为下一增长曲线-250915(英文版)(16页).pdf

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杰富瑞Jefferies:亚太(除日本外)替代能源行业研究:韩国电动车产业链调研 – 重新聚焦ESS作为下一增长曲线-250915(英文版)(16页).pdf

1、ASIA-PACIFIC excl.Japan|AlternativeEnergyEquity ResearchSeptember 15,2025 JohnsonWan*|Equity Analyst852 3743 8083|ShuhangJiang*|Equity Analyst852 3767 1137|KellyZou*|Equity Analyst852 3767 1116|Korea EV Trip Takeaways-Refocusing onESS as the next LifelineWe met with 7 major KR companies in the EV su

2、pply chain last weekincluding a factory visit to Hyundai Motors Asan Plant.The focus for Koreancompanies was clearly US as they stand to benefit from US re-shoringpolicies that are not welcoming to China supply chains.In non-US markets,China players continue to take share such as in Europe as they o

3、utperformin technology&cost control.Buy CATL and Sunwoda as likely winners inthe global battery revolution.Geographical Bifurcation:Korea All-in US,while China takes EU.As CN producers offer bettervalue for money,KR Battery Makers(BM)are losing m/s in EU to the Chinese.This also hasa knock-on effect

4、 on KR material players,e.g.Ecopro revised down volume guidance from+40%to+30%YoY as their key customer Samsung-SDI has lost shr.The focus for the Koreansremain to be the US market,as they benefit from the AMPC and non-PFE requirement whichexcludes China players.According to OBBBA,the threshold for

5、minimum%of cost comingfrom non-PFE increases from 60%in 2026 to 85%in 2030 for battery component.AMPC is thekey to cost competitiveness for US local production,e.g.for SK On,US sales enjoys the bestmargin across regions exactly due to AMPC.KR BM shift to ESS in the US.US EV demand is expected to slo

6、w down as OBBBA removesthe USD7,500 IRA credit by Sep 30,2025.As a result,automakers will likely offer additionalincentives to offset this impending loss,on top of US tariffs as indicated by KIA.The focuscontinues to be Hybrid as KIA expects 100%yoy vol increase 2H25 in hybrids,so EVs will bedelayed

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