巴克莱Barclays:德国住宅房地产行业研究:基本面叙事强劲但股价承压;低现金流或是症结-250915(英文版)(31页).pdf

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巴克莱Barclays:德国住宅房地产行业研究:基本面叙事强劲但股价承压;低现金流或是症结-250915(英文版)(31页).pdf

1、Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider thisreport as on

2、ly a single factor in making their investment decision.This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on

3、page 21.German residential real estateA simple story that isnt working.Why?In German resi,we see a compelling top-down narrative withbuilt-in multi-year rental growth.But shares continue tounderperform and investor engagement has reduced.Why?We think low cash flow is the issue as companies complicat

4、ethe situation with non-standard KPIs.An apparently appealing top-down thesis that isnt working:In theory,German residentialshould be a simple,appealing investment:1)regulation has meant in-place rents are well belowmarket levels,and there are many years of rental growth to look forward to(as regula

5、tions limitannual rent increases)which should provide some confidence in the stability of the top-line;and 2)there is a broadly positive supply:demand dynamic(albeit not in all sub-markets)thatshould support further market rental growth.These factors havent been producing theexpected outcome as shar

6、es continue to underperform.We believe this underperformancestems from an underlying low free cash flow(AFFO)that is difficult to solve.Reported grossyields are too low,and,as we have previously highlighted,the high cost of operation severelyimpacts cash flows(see Why German residential should have

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