巴克莱Barclays:IT硬件与通信设备行业研究:服务器模型更新;AI热潮持续;传统服务器复苏温和-250917(英文版)(21页).pdf

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巴克莱Barclays:IT硬件与通信设备行业研究:服务器模型更新;AI热潮持续;传统服务器复苏温和-250917(英文版)(21页).pdf

1、Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider thisreport as on

2、ly a single factor in making their investment decision.Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 10.IT Hardware and Communications EquipmentServer Model Update:AI BoomContinues,Traditional RecoveryMore ModestWe update our detailed Server model following recent res

3、ultsand industry conversations,and introduce CY27 estimates.Slower-than-expected enterprise server recovery temperingour CY25 estimates.CY26 estimates tick higher on continuedAI strength and enterprise recovery acceleration.Following recent results and industry conversations,we adjust our AI and Tra

4、ditional serverestimates for CY25/26 and introduce our CY27 forecast.We raised our CY25 AI estimates,largelydue to our white box assumptions(inclusive of NVDA).We also updated our DELL model(raisingAI server estimates into FY27-28),given positive capex commentary from some of the companyscustomer ba

5、se.We took down our CY25 Traditional estimates,given our analysis and commentary from HPE/DELL this earnings cycle.Although we believe enterprise server recovery remains in motion,tariffs and macro uncertainty are pressuring the degree of the acceleration we previouslyexpected.However,we expect Ente

6、rprise growth to push into next year with the gains expectedin CY25 to flow through in CY26-27.As a reminder,our server model includes AI vs Traditional server splits where we break outrevenues,units,and ASPs in more detail for both portions of the market.Our model also adjustsup for GPUs on consign

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