1、Allianz Research16 September 2025Agentic AI:The self-driving economy?2Allianz ResearchContent Page 3Executive SummaryPage 7-8In tech we trust:Economic opportunity and social costs of agentic AIPage 9-14 From co-pilot to autopilot:Substitutability of labor for AI capital Page 4-6 The rise of agentic

2、AI Page 15 New tools,new policies:policy levers that matter for demandPage 16Annex16 September 2025 Agentic AI capable of autonomous decision-making and executing complex tasks without human intervention marks a significant leap in artificial intelligence,with the potential to profoundly reshape eco

3、nomies and labor markets across the globe.The economic promise is considerable,with projected global gains of USD2.6-4.4trn over the next two to five years,driven by productivity and innovation.But the key question is whether this productivity growth will come at the cost of widespread unemployment.

4、Historically,the labor share of national income remained relatively stable throughout most of the postwar period,suggesting that technological advancements complemented rather than replaced labor.In recent years,however,this trend has shifted downward,raising concerns about the increasing substituta

5、bility of labor with AI systems.Compared to earlier AI technologies,including generative AI,agentic AI poses a greater risk to employment,with recent estimates suggesting that up to 60%of jobs in advanced economies and 40%of global employment could be either augmented or automated by AI.The scale of

6、 this disruption could mirror the transformative effects of the Industrial Revolution,fundamentally challenging existing models of labor,income distribution and economic growth.To assess the relationship between labor and capital,we analyze labor demand across several countries.While in Germany,Spai