【中国银河】全球大类资产配置周观察：美联储进入降息通道，全球央行政策路径分化-250921（12页）.pdf

1、?全球大类资产配置周观察 2025?09?21?l?季?FOMC?25?4.00%?4.25%?8?l?1?季?3689?/?2?季?口?l?季?季?季?口?况?10?口?径?l?季?季?l?季?盎?l?杨超(?010-8092-7696*?yangchao_?S0130522030004?2025-09-19?绩?绩?9?2025-09-09?冀?2025-09-09?2025-09-08?A?2025-09-08?2025?2025-09-02?2025?9?2025-09-01?A?2025-08-20?编?2025-08-06?2025-07-31?8?绩+?2025-07-31?7?

2、9?2025-07-30?7?A?2025-07-22?2025-07-16?A?2025-07-15?2025?A?2025-06-26?2025?绩?1?Catalog?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?2?2025?9?15?9?19?9?FOMC?25?4.00%?4.25%?Jackson Hole?8?扩?季?25BP?季?季?口?扩?季?况?扩?季?盎?A?10?8.00BP?2.34%?2.21%?SHFE?2.09%?COMEX?1.25%?500?1.22%?10?1.19BP?1.14%?DCE?1.13%?1.05%?COMEX?0.90%?S

3、ENSEX30?0.88%?225?0.62%?0.59%?STOXX?0.56%?CAC40?0.36%?0.21%?0.09%?0.03%?0.06%?0.24%?CBOT?0.24%?DAX?0.25%?0.48%?LME?0.50%?NYMEX WTI?0.53%?LME?0.71%?100?0.72%?NYMEX?0.78%?0.96%?1.30%?CBOT?1.34%?ICE?1.40%?CBOT?1.94%?LME?1.98%?3?1?2025?9?12?2025?9?19?BP?%?Wind?季?季?3689?/?季径?季?3684?季?季?季?10?口?扩?2?扩?3?500

4、?COMEX?Wind?Wind?-4-2024681010?SHFE?COMEX?50010?DCE?COMEX?SENSEX30?225?STOXX?CAC40?CBOT?DAX?LME?NYMEX WTI?LME?100NYMEX?CBOT?ICE?CBOT?LME?（%）（BP）-200-1000100200300-1001020302024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-09?（吨）（吨）190024002900340039001020304050602023-12-2920

5、24-02-292024-04-302024-06-302024-08-312024-10-312024-12-312025-02-282025-04-302025-06-302025-08-31?500?(VIX)?(?):COMEX?/?4?季?季?始?;?扩?季?扩?扩?4?5?API?EIA?扩?Wind?Wind?季?季?扩?季径?口?扩?10?12?-50501502503504505506502025-01-012025-01-222025-02-122025-03-052025-03-262025-04-162025-05-072025-05-282025-06-182025-

6、07-092025-07-302025-08-202025-09-10?（1985-2019年=100）-1500-1000-500050010002025-07-042025-07-112025-07-182025-07-252025-08-012025-08-082025-08-152025-08-222025-08-292025-09-052025-09-12?:API?:?:?:EIA?:?:?（万桶）?5?6?7?Wind?Wind?季?季?口?况?径?扩?口?季?季?10?口?径?8?9?Wind?Wind?3.23.43.63.84.04.24.44.64.85.05.22024