1、ECONOMIC AND STEEL MARKET OUTLOOKQ3 REPORTData up to,and including,Q1 202520252026September 2025economic and steel market outlook 2025-2026third quarter report3EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe current trend in EU apparent steel consumption,despite two modest consecutive rebounds over the last two quarters drive

2、n by comparison with very low volumes recorded a year earlier continues to reflect weak demand conditions.These conditions originated in the second quarter of 2022 due to war-related disruptions,coupled with unprecedented increases in energy prices and production costs.This negative cycle has persis

3、ted until the third quarter of 2024,mainly as a result of growing global economic uncertainty,higher interest rates before eight policy rate cuts were implemented-overall manufacturing weakness,and growing uncertainty surrounding U.S.tariffs.The consequences of the conflict in Ukraine and the energy

4、 shock on steel-using industries,along with worsened overall economic outlook,triggered a severe recession(-8%)already in 2022.These protracted downside factors further impacted apparent steel consumption,resulting in two other consecutive annual drops in 2023 and 2024(-6%and-1.1%,respectively).In 2

5、025,contrary to earlier expectations of a more favourable industrial outlook and improving steel demand,apparent steel consumption is set to decline again,albeit more moderately than previously foreseen(-0.2%,formerly-0.9%).This will be driven by the expectedalbeit difficult to quantifyimpact of U.S

6、.tariffs and the resulting uncertainty and trade-related disruptions.In 2026,apparent steel consumption is projected to finally recover(+3.1%,previously set at+3.4%),conditional on a positive evolution of the industrial outlook and an easing of global tensions,both of which remain unpredictable at t