摩根士丹利:中国在线垂直领域研究:首选BOSS直聘与满帮-250910(英文版)(36页).pdf

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摩根士丹利:中国在线垂直领域研究:首选BOSS直聘与满帮-250910(英文版)(36页).pdf

1、M IdeaChina Online Verticals|Asia PacificPrefer BZ and YMM in Online VerticalsMorgan Stanley Asia Limited+Eddy Wang,CFAEquity Analyst Eddy.W +852 2239-7339 Kathy ZhuResearch Associate Kathy.Z +852 3963-2618 Gary YuEquity Analyst Gary.Y +852 2848-6918 China Internet and Other ServicesAsia PacificIndu

2、stry ViewAttractive Whats Changed Kanzhun Ltd(BZ.O)FromToPrice TargetUS$24.00US$27.00Full Truck Alliance Co.Ltd(YMM.N)FromToPrice TargetUS$14.00US$16.00KE Holdings Inc(BEKE.N)FromToPrice TargetUS$22.00US$23.00Autohome Inc(ATHM.N)FromToPrice TargetUS$25.00US$27.00We like BZ for its improving revenue

3、and cash billings growth in 2H25,and YMM for its 30%+transaction services revenue growth in 2H25/2026.Compared with historical average levels,both companies 2026e P/Es still have room to re-rate.Preference order:BZ=YMM BEKE ATHM.BZ:We forecast BZs revenue and cash billing growth to accelerate in 2H2

4、5 vs.1H25 (i.e.,revenue growth of 15%YoY in 2H25 vs.11%in 1H25,and cash billings growth of 15%YoY in 2H25 vs.6%YoY in 1H25),implying an improving trend of recruitment demand on its platform.In addition,monthly iOS grossing declined YoY in September-December 2024,forming an easy base for the high-fre

5、quency grossing trend in the rest of 2025.Trading at 19x 2026e P/E a 25%discount to 1SD below the 24x average since 2023 we believe there is room for re-rating given its improving fundamentals in 2H25 and onwards.YMM:We believe recent concerns about freight brokerage and credit solutions businesses

6、adjustments have been mostly priced in,both financially and sentimentally.We forecast YMMs transaction services revenue growth to remain strong at 37%and 35%YoY in 3Q and 4Q25.Looking into 2026,we forecast transaction services revenue to grow 36%YoY and OP to grow 24%YoY.Trading at 18x 2026e P/E(bel

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