巴克莱Barclays:美国机械与建筑行业研究:网络搜索趋势揭示市场与宏观环境分化-250912(英文版)(24页).pdf

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巴克莱Barclays:美国机械与建筑行业研究:网络搜索趋势揭示市场与宏观环境分化-250912(英文版)(24页).pdf

1、Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider thisreport as on

2、ly a single factor in making their investment decision.Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 19.U.S.Machinery&ConstructionSearch Trends Underscore MixedMarkets&Macros in Machinery&Construction1)Rentals search interest decent in Jul/Aug while“jobs”moresubdued.2

3、)“Highway work”searches improved in Q3.VMC/MLM have public led 2H volume guides.3)Trucks/Agstable y/y;reflective of market challenges.4)Inflation trendsin-line y/y.“price increases”spiked in July,for 1 month only.Search trends for truck and ag are negative while construction/rentals/infrastructure h

4、adsome strength in/around July.Internet search trend isnt proprietary,nor complex,but a semi-long history and changes vs.seasonal periods could be useful.Ag is like last year with tractor,combine,and dealer searches at the mid/low end of prior years.Trucks search interest has beennegative for 2+year

5、s and not too dissimilar in Ag.Construction was mixed with potentialstrength in rental related searches in the summer but lower construction jobs searches whichcould be a function of immigration policy(less hopping).Highway work is more positive in thesummer consistent with 2H projections.AI and tar

6、iff relate searches have increased(notsurprisingly),while inflation trends run like 2024 levels but searches for“price increases”and“stagflation”are beginning to elevate and/or be more volatile than historical trends.The end of2025-beginning of 2026 should be a key sign for these variablesAgricultur

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