1、7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on:11/09/2025 16:03:06 GMTDistributed on:11/09/2025 16:03:06 GMT11 September 2025Deutsche BankResearch Europe North America TMT Semicap Equipment Industry Global semicaps Date Industry Update The competitiveness of Chinese semicapsTaking stock of Chinese s

2、emicap competition ahead of SEMICON WestAfter Applied sounded a note of caution on its China business,we thought that it would be a good moment to check in on the status of Chinese semicaps,especially with SEMICON West just around the corner(we have an extensive schedule of investor meetings if inte

3、rested to join us).Overall,we would say there is insufficient attention on this topic into 2026-30.For example,there are four Chinese semicaps that should generate greater than US$1bn in sales in 2026,namely Naura,Amec,Piotech and ACM Research.Those four players alone point to a domestic penetration

4、 of 25-30%within the 2026 China WFE spend wallet of$28bn.However,ex litho and metrology where China clearly lags,that suggests a penetration rate closer to 40%with strong in-roads made into deposition,etch and clean equipment.Huawei-tied startups like SiCarrier and Leadmicro are increasingly importa

5、nt too given that they have benefited significantly from Big Fund III.Figure 1:Big 5 Chinese listed semicaps:sales growth set to be 25-30%CAGRSource:Bloomberg Finance LP,as of September 10th 2025Huawei-tied startups appear to be gaining prominencePerhaps counter-intuitively,as China pivots its spend

6、 more forcibly away from analog/power towards the leading-edge(=28nm),we sense it is actually more likely that the spend will migrate faster from Western players to the Chinese in light Robert SandersResearch Analyst+44-20-754-58394Melissa WeathersResearch Analyst+1-212-250-2134Apoorva KumarResearch