【招银国际】Broad economic slowdown-250916（8页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 16 Sep 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Economic Perspectives-Broad economic slowdown Broad economic slowdown

2、Economic activities have slowed for two straight months below market expectations in Aug,underscoring rising downside risks for growth in 2H25.Property sales seem to have stabilized at the cyclical trough,as sales of new and second-hand housing moderately rebounded in early Sep.Retail sales further

3、softened as impacts from trade-in subsidies eased.The anti-involution campaign drove another month of contraction in fixed asset investment,which is negative for short-term growth yet positive for medium-term economic rebalancing.Industrial output moderated amid falling delivery value of exports.The

4、 weakening economy may drive policymakers to ramp up policy support in 4Q25,and we expect a further 10bps LPR cut and 50bps RRR cut and expanding fiscal support to households and consumers.Property sector has stabilized at a cyclical trough.The decline of gross floor area(GFA)sold for commodity buil

5、dings edged down to-4.7%in 8M25 from-4%in 7M25 according to NBS.Contraction of residential housing starts stayed unchanged at-18.3%in 8M25,back to the level in 2003-04,which should support a supply-demand rebalancing in 2026-27.For new housing sales,according to Wind,in the first half of Sep,the rec

6、overy rate compared to 2018-2019 edged down to 37.7%from 38.7%in Aug,stabilizing at around 37%since July,which is also the historic low last seen in Sep 2024.Sales YoY in 30 major cities rebounded to 15.5%from-9.2%in Aug driven by the 43.6%surge in tier-3 cities.Second-hand housing sales also mildly