1、 DRAFT REPORTOFFICIAL SENSITIVENOT FOR SHARINGGlobal Trade Outlook June 2025 DBT Global Trade Outlook|2CONTENTS DBT Global Trade Outlook|3 -DBT Global Trade Outlook|4FOREWORD This edition of the Global Trade Outlook was written during a period of significant uncertainty.Global trade is entering a ne

2、w phase,where geopolitical,geoeconomic and technological shocks are reshaping the international order.The recent shocks felt by the world trading system have further complicated the global trade landscape.At the same time,the UKs trade prospects have been lifted by securing a free trade agreement wi

3、th India,establishing the US UK Economic Prosperity Deal(EPD),and the new Strategic Partnership with the EU.This moment of rapid change is a challenging context to undertake the types of forecasting found in the Global Trade Outlook but it is also exactly the moment that calls for the far sighted po

4、licy analysis it offers.If our Trade Strategy is,in part,a guide for how we will approach trade during this period of uncertainty,then the Global Trade Outlook is our reflection of what certainties remain and what they mean for growth.While the global economy is always shaped by short term shocks an

5、d shifts,the long term outlook is more fundamentally a product of people,technology and global connectivity which we seek to capture in this edition of the Outlook.Compared to today,the global economy the Outlook foresees in 2050 is populated by 1.5 billion additional people,with demographic dividen

6、ds in some countries sitting alongside ageing and shrinking populations in others.It is an economy in which technological progress lifts economies,and trade helps spread the best ideas widely for the benefit of all.And it is an economy in which growth is increasingly widely spread,helping emerging e