1、M IdeaTesla Inc|North AmericaElons Comp Package Hold My Honey Deuce Wanted to share some initial thoughts following the detailed disclosure of a proposed long term compensation package for Tesla CEO Elon Musk that we feel is consequential to the investment thesis.1.Puts to bed concerns over Elons lo

2、ng term commitment to Tesla.As Tesla gets more involved in commercializing sensitive dual-purpose physical AI,Elon Musk has expressed his desire to hold at least a blocking minority(25%-type stake)in the company to have some say in a potential change of control.For the past couple of years,some inve

3、stors have voiced concerns about Musks commitment to Tesla and questioned whether his other companies like xAI and SpaceX might take his time and focus away from Tesla.In our view,on the eve of scaling physical AI and advanced AI-enabled manufacturing on US shores,we believe Elon Musk has an incenti

4、ve to focus on Tesla more than ever.At the same time,there is no clear near-term succession plan at this time.2.Performance targets appear achievable over a 10 year view.Performance targets for vehicle deliveries,FSD subscriptions and Robotaxis in operation are generally in line with MS forecasts fr

5、om 2029 through 2036(see below).We forecast TSLA core Adj.EBITDA to grow from approximately$12bn in FY25 to just over$70bn by 2030 but note that this excludes robotaxi and Optimus.We do forecast Tesla Network Services(installed base/recurring profit)EBITDA to eclipse$100bn by 2040 and Tesla Robotaxi

6、 EBITDA to reach$180bn in that same year.However,the target of$400bn of Adj.EBITDA within 10 years is materially more aggressive than our auto/network services+energy+robotaxi forecasts and would imply substantial contributions from Optimus and other AI robot end markets currently not in our forecas