瑞银UBS:康宁公司(GLW.US)-美股公司研究:光学业务超规模增长 上调至买入-250829(英文版)(28页).pdf

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瑞银UBS:康宁公司(GLW.US)-美股公司研究:光学业务超规模增长 上调至买入-250829(英文版)(28页).pdf

1、ab2 September 2025Global ResearchCorning IncHyperscaling Optical growth;U/G to BuyGrowth is not stopping here;higher confidence in GLW plansWe upgrade GLW to Buy as we see ongoing AI-driven fiber growth continuing to exceed market expectations,driving sustainable higher growth and re-rating in the s

2、tock.We believe consensus is not modeling the full GLW fiber content uplift in AI datacenter as fiber density increases,outpacing hyperscaler capex growth in 2027-2029e.We expect Optical to deliver a 27%sales CAGR through 2027(2027e 18%above cons),driving much of our 13%GLW sales CAGR over this peri

3、od.Our updated adj EPS forecasts reflect 2026/2027e Y/Y growth of 24%/20%(6%/13%above consensus),and we now see a sustainable 20%CAGR through 2029.With adj EPS growing at a structurally higher rate of 20%vs MSD%historically,we see a re-rating in the stock as sustainable,and expect the stock to compo

4、und with continued earnings growth.Fiber TAM continues to expandOur build out of GPU/Server content indicates that data center builds are requiring 4-16x more fiber content,further increasing as we move towards next generation processors.GLW is signing contracts with companies to connect datacenters

5、 within campus and long distances.Longer term,co-packaged optics(CPO)start to open up another 2-3x content uplift.GLW is the leading producer of fiber optics and also has an competitive moat on the leading edge where new GLW innovations cram 40-80%more cabling into existing infrastructure.Our unique

6、 analysis of datacenter capex+density supports our forecast for a 24%CAGR in GLW Optical segment revenues through 2029.Optical profits are now 40%of GLW(growing to 50%)from 15%a decade ago,making Optical growth a much larger driver(Display now much smaller at 35%from 60%).More Glass;More CorningBeyo

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