1、ab29 August 2025Global ResearchLynas Rare EarthsGo Your Own WayThematic accelerating but valuation to backfillWe remain positive on the long-term ex-China rare earths thematic(and upgrade our LT NdPr price from$75 to$100/kg)but have more questions than answers when it comes to LYCs 2030 strategy ann

2、ouncement and equity raise.The FY25 result was of secondary importance today(with revenue and ending cash pre-reported);A$101m EBITDA was in-line(UBSe:$107m)but NPAT$8m(UBSe:$43m)missed on higher D&A from LYCs increased asset base.In addition to updating our LT price forecast,we also upgrade sho

3、rt-term prices,which together with other modelling changes sees us increase our PT by 23%to$15.10/sh.However,with LYC already up 130%YTD,we downgrade our rating on valuation to Neutral.More lines needed in LYCs spreadsheetThe market will need more granularity and data points on each of three key pro

4、ceeds in LYCs Towards 2030 Strategy,but on our understanding of each:1)Add Resource and Scale(A$150m):will be for Mt Weld and conversion of carbonatite from resource to reserve,etc.,while the remainder will be on development of the Malaysia clay MOU and a movement towards a definitive agreement,2)In

5、creasing downstream capacity(A$310m):looks high when considering recent separation capacity and with first DyTb extraction announced and completed within the pre-existing FY25 capex envelope,3)Expanding the ex-China metal and magnet supply chain(A$200m):in-line with recent initiatives further down t

6、he value chain and their MOU w JS Link,though again details on how LYC will exactly engage downstream remain to be finalised and hard to properly attribute value to.Modelling changesIn addition to modelling for todays equity raise,we make numerous modelling changes including:1)lifting LT NdPr price