1、ab2 September 2025Global ResearchEuropean Economic PerspectivesFrance:Getting ready for the confidence vote-Q&A The confidence vote and beyondPolitical uncertainty resurfaced last week with Prime Minister Franois Bayrous surprise announcement of a vote of confidence for 8 September in response to ri

2、sing opposition against his plans for a tighter 2026 budget(for more details see our note France:Political uncertainty around the budget-again!).In this note we discuss the main client questions we have received over the last week,what comes next,review what to watch ahead of the confidence vote and

3、 include the views of our bank analysts.Q1:Which majorities are needed for the vote of confidence to pass?According to Art.49(1)of the Constitution,PM Bayrou requires a simple majority of the votes cast(not of all members of parliament)for the confidence vote to pass(see here).This differs from Art.

4、49(2)or(3)where the absolute majority of members of parliament voting in favour of a no confidence vote is required.This majority will be difficult to obtain given the fragmentation of parliament after the legislative elections in June 2024.The current parliament is split with three blocks(Figure 11

5、):the centre-right block(led by Macrons Ensemble party but also including Les Rpublicains);the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire(including the far-left La France Insoumise and the Socialists);and the far-right(led by Rassemblement Nationale).PM Bayrou is leading a minority government supported by th

6、e centre-right block,accounting for 210 of the 577 seats in parliament.The opposition parties have all announced they will not vote in favour of the government on 8 September.Even in the event the Socialists(66 seats)chose to abstain from the vote,the supporting parties would fall short of a relativ