1、0China Economic Quarterly Q1Q2 2025(Combined Issue)1In BriefPart 1:Economic Update Mapping a Distorted LandscapeChinas economy recorded solid growth in the first half of 2025,with GDP growing 5.3%year-on-year,exceeding the official target despite mounting global headwinds.The resilience was underpin

2、ned by robust manufacturing and a strengthening services sector.Buoyant exports helped sustain economic momentum.While shipments to the US declined,strong growth in ASEAN,Africa,and Latin America helped offset the shortfall.However,this strength may be partially driven by front-loading ahead of anti

3、cipated tariff hikes,suggesting a potential pullback in the second half.The new US tariffs on transhipped goods add further uncertainty.Their impact will hinge on enforcement specifics and the definition of transshipment,but could ripple through Chinas indirect export routes and third-country trade

4、flows.Domestic consumption received a boost from the trade-in programme,but the momentum is showing signs of fading amid cautious household sentiment.Continued support will be needed to sustain the recovery.Investment was subdued in the first half of 2025.Real estate remained a drag on growth,while

5、private investment softness likely reflects delayed business decisions amid heightened uncertainty.China Economic Quarterly H1 2025 2Part 2:Special Topic Chinas Consumption OutlookChinas consumer market has grown into the worlds second-largest,but recent data reveals a slowdown in momentum.Retail sa

6、les growth has softened,and consumer sentiment remains subdued,weighed down by housing market stress and global uncertainty.Structurally,consumption remains underweight in Chinas GDP mix.Household spending accounts for just 40%of GDPfar below levels seen in developed economieshighlighting both the c