1、North America Equity Research25 August 2025J P M O R G A NFood Producers&RetailersThomas Palmer,CFA AC(1-212)622-Elsa H Evans(1-212)622-Brandon Cohen(1-212)622-Christopher Horvers,CFA AC(1-212)622-Christian Carlino,CFA(1-212)622-Barath Rao(1-212)622-Jolie Wasserman(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LL

2、CIn this note,we analyze important trends for US food retailers via Numerator,an alternative data provider that sources first-party consumer information.We have found Numerator to be helpful in demonstrating the“why”behind key trends(for example,it can show key sales growth drivers such as household

3、s and purchase frequency).Below,please find charts and tables that illustrate many deep-dive,Numerator-generated statistics.HighlightsIn terms of projected units,the following departments have performed the best lately:Deli/Prepared,Alcohol,Herbs/Spices,Meat,and Non-alcoholic Beverages.The following

4、 were the softest:Packaged Bakery,Baking&Cooking,Canned,Shelf Stable Meals,and Breakfast.See Figure 4.Buy rates for all income groups sequentially worsened in July,but low-income consumers continued to outpace both middle-and high-income consumers.See Figure 6.Trader Joes,Costco(COST Chris Horvers),

5、Sprouts(SFM Tom Palmer),and Dollar General(DG Matt Boss)grew the fastest in terms of projected food/beverage sales in July.None of our tracked retailers saw declines this month,but Target(TGT-Horvers),Kroger(KR-Palmer),and Ahold(AD-Borja Olcese)grew the slowest within Numerator.See Figure 15.DG(Boss

6、),Whole Foods(AMZN-Doug Anmuth),and SFM(Palmer)saw the largest year-over-year increases in$s per Unit in July(See Figure 28).These three retailers also saw the largest declines in Units per Trip(See Figure 30).Household growth has averaged 30%for Sprouts(SFM-Palmer)over the last eight months,but the