摩根士丹利:携程集团(TCOM.US)-美股公司研究:暑期淡季不淡 目标价上调至83美元-250828(英文版)(12页).pdf

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摩根士丹利:携程集团(TCOM.US)-美股公司研究:暑期淡季不淡 目标价上调至83美元-250828(英文版)(12页).pdf

1、M IdeaRelated reports:T Group Ltd:2Q25 all round beat;New repurchase program of US$5bn(27 Aug 2025)Domestic business solid growth outlook of high single digits to 10%in 3Q:This points to the top end of the previous expectations range.Despite the weak domestic summer airline data,TCOM observed very s

2、olid leisure travel volume,partly offset by a slight decline of hotel/transportation pricing.The gap of strong hotel volume growth vs.weak airline pax comes from fast-rising short-haul and self-driving travel demand,which has been a consistent post-Covid trend.TCOM raised take rate slightly for low-

3、star hotels,in line with OTA peers.TCOM has yet to see real intensifying of competition despite the noise in the market,and we believe the strong 3Q domestic outlook is a good proof point.Outbound travel:Management expects low teens revenue growth in 3Q.This is slightly shy of previously expected mi

4、d-teens growth,likely owing to lower transportation pricing(still 5%higher than 2019s level).Overseas business sustains high growth:The increased marketing intensity is bearing fruit and T is on track to grow at 50%+from a much higher base,driving overall international business growth at 30%+YoY.For

5、 2026,management believes T can improve OPM(via higher market share and more existing users contribution),but is not sure about the impact of mix on group OPM.3Q non-GAAP OPM guidance of 32%looks in line(2ppt lower YoY,similar to previous pattern,reflecting the high investment in overseas markets).U

6、S$5bn new share buyback is a major positive surprise:Compared with market expectation of a US$2bn buyback(vs.US$3bn cash proceeds from selling down MMYT),TCOM announced a US$5bn buyback,a big upgrade of its shareholder return.For the buybacks pace,management committed to at least offsetting the annu

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