1、RMB MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCHSouth AfricaRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary LimitedAndrea Masia Economist+27 11 282 1593RMB Morgan Stanley is a member of the JSE Limited and A2X(Pty)Ltd.For important disclosures,refer to the Disclosures Section,located at the end of this report.South Africa Economics Anch

2、oring Expectations:The Roadmap Toward 3%In our Roadmap to 3%publication we shared our formal views on the inflation target debate in South Africa,providing an in-depth analysis that supports the proposal to reduce the target to 3%.We showed transition costs,economic implications,and fiscal impacts o

3、f this policy change.This presentation extracts only the key charts from that document in slide deck format.August 26,2025 08:53 AM GMTRMB M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C HSouth Africa EconomicsAnchoring Expectations:The Roadmap Toward 3%2Andrea Masia,+27 11 282 1593,Research overviewSource:

4、RMB Morgan Stanley ResearchTopicKey FindingsReport OverviewWe investigate the proposal to reduce South Africas inflation target from 3-6%range to a point target of 3%,examining transition costs,economic implications,and fiscal impactsOptimal Inflation RateWelfare analysis indicates optimal inflation

5、 rate for South Africa falls within 2-4%range,with economic benefits from targeting the lower endTransition CostsSacrifice ratios(growth foregone to reduce inflation by 1pp)estimated between 0.6-1.4%of GDP,comparable to several SARB and IMF estimatesCentral Bank CredibilitySARB has built substantial

6、 credibility over two decades,creating favorable conditions for successful target reduction;higher credibility regimes deliver lower sacrifice ratiosEconomic BenefitsLow inflation tends to be less volatile,reduces risk premia,results in lower borrowing costs for public and private sectors,protects p