美团-精耕细作时代论美团的模式韧性与空间-220803（37页）.pdf

1、Meituan(3690 HK)Equity ResearchCompany ResearchSoftware Service(HS)1/37 东吴证券（香港）东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 Resilience&prospect of Meituans business model,in the era of intensive and meticulous execution Buy(Maintain)Forecast&Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue(RMB mn)179,128 228,

2、546 288,768 337,702 Growth(YoY%)56%28%26%17%Non-GAAP Net profit(RMB mn)-15,574-8,402 7,474 15,060 Growth(YoY%)-102%Non-GAAP EPS(RMB)-2.55-1.36 1.21 2.44 P/E(X)-139 69 Investment Thesis The inflection of regulatory reset in Chinas internet sector has been clear since 2022.Among all companies whose va

3、luations awaiting to be upgraded,we favor Meituan for its stronger resilience from robust core business to offset headwinds and visible growth potential.To fully reveal Meituans value,this report attempts to answer two frequently raised questions:1)Why Meituan is barely challenged by new competitors

4、 and is more resilient after becoming leading company of service e-commerce,while the conventional e-commerce market can still be disturbed by new entrants?Will Meituan be threatened by new players in the future?2)How large is the growth potential of Meituans core business?Resilience:different infor

5、mation and logistics characteristics lead to different levels of resilience for leading companies between service e-commerce and conventional e-commerce market.1)Information flow:significant differences in the attributes of transmitted information.Service information is harder to collect than produc

6、t information as its more non-standard and regional,and this will bring notable first-mover advantage and user exclusivity to service e-commerce firms under the UGC mode.Meanwhile,as consumers are prone to make immediate purchase after receiving the information,leaders in conventional e-commerce are