1、7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on:21/08/2025 09:03:11 GMTDistributed on:21/08/2025 09:03:11 GMT21 August 2025Deutsche BankResearch North America United States Industrials Airfreight&Surface Transportation Industry Freight for Thought Date Industry Update Short-cycle industrials vs trans

2、ports,whos right?Recall Dow TheoryThe 10%year-to-date decline in transportation stocks stands in stark contrast to the S&P 500s 10%gain and the SPWs 5%increase.Among industrials,the XLI is up 14.5%YTD,better than the broader market,led by A&D(up 35%),but also short-cycle levered spaces,like machiner

3、y(up 15%).CAT and DE are up 15%.URI is up 30%.Multis are having a good year as well,with short-cycle bell-weather names like PH up 16%YTD(vs.a 10%move in peers),and also leading the charge QTD,up 5%.QTD,our stocks are flat versus the S&P up 4%and the SPW up 2.5%.This divergence raises a fundamental

4、question:can a short-cycle industrial recovery materialize without the participation of the transportation sector?Figure 1:YTD stock performance of short cycle names compared to transports and the broader market.Transports,-9.5%CAT,13.8%DE,15.5%URI,30.0%PH,17.0%SPW,6.4%SPX,9.0%XLI,14.9%TRAN,0.0%-30%

5、-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Dec-24Jan-25Jan-25Jan-25Jan-25Feb-25Feb-25Feb-25Feb-25Mar-25Mar-25Mar-25Mar-25Apr-25Apr-25Apr-25Apr-25Apr-25May-25May-25May-25May-25Jun-25Jun-25Jun-25Jun-25Jul-25Jul-25Jul-25Jul-25Jul-25Aug-25Aug-25Aug-25Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,Deutsche BankWe dont think so.but we also thin

6、k Transportation may be more“right”in the Richa Harnain,CFAResearch Analyst+1-212-250-6285Megan MakiniResearch Associate+1-212-250-1458Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with compani