1、ab14 August 2025Global ResearchEuropean PharmaceuticalsESC 2025 Preview-major catalyst for AstraZenecaP3 data for baxdrostat in hypertension is important for AZNResults from the P3 BaxHTN study of baxdrostat in patients with uncontrolled or resistant hypertension will be presented at the European So

2、ciety of Cardiology(ESC)meeting on Aug 30th.The P3 BaxHTN readout has been somewhat overshadowed by the sector headwinds(most favoured nation pricing and US tariffs),and the upcoming P3 AVANZAR readout for Dato-DXd in 1L NSCLC(expected 1H26).However,as we have previously outlined(here),we view baxdr

3、ostat as an important product for AstraZeneca with multi-bn peak year sales potential.We currently forecast c.60%probability of$4bn peak sales for baxdrostat across all indications($3bn in resistant/uncontrolled hypertension at 60%POS).This accounts for 1.1%of NPV.What does baxdrostat need to show a

4、t ESC?We know from the announcement of positive high-level results from the BaxHTN study,that baxdrostat at two doses(2mg and 1mg)demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful reduction in mean seated systolic blood pressure(SBP)compared with placebo at 12 weeks.As discussed in

5、more detail within the note,the efficacy and safety results will be compared to the P3 results for Mineralys aldosterone synthase inhibitor lorundrostat.In our view,it will be important to show broadly similar reductions in blood pressure and on safety it will be important to show similar or lower r

6、ates of hyperkalemia.Recall that in the Launch-HTN study of lorundrostat in patients with uncontrolled or resistant hypertension,lorundrostat 50mg once daily achieving a 9.1mmHg placebo-adjusted reduction in automated office systolic blood pressure(AOBP)at week 6(p.0001)and an 11.7 mmHg placebo-adju