1、Global InternetOnline Advertising-Market OverweightMETA PLATFORMS INC.(META)April 21,2025META:Tactical OP.Not All Revenue is Made in China-Quantifying The Temu+China Impact The Wolfe ByteWe are leaning into META shares as our NT long trading call.We view the recentunderperformance due to macro+Temu&

2、China-related fears as a buying oppty 98%.However,we think METAs auction densityand second-price mechanics are underappreciated,and our analysis points to onlyLSD%headwind to FY25 revenue-please refer to Exhibits 3&4 within the reportfor a breakdown in ramifications from Temu,ex.Temu China-based adv

3、ertisers,andU.S.advertisers with China exposure.Valuation has become increasingly attractive with shares now trading at 3-turn discount to 5-year median multiple of 20 x.We dont viewMETAs FY22 trough multiple as appropriate given IDFA impacts+Reels revenuedisplacement,but we note GOOGL bottomed at 1

4、5.5x EPS.We believe a premiumto Google multiple is justified given product catalysts,cleaner AI story,and lowerregulatory risk.ESTIMATESDECEMBER FYE($)2024A2025E2026ERevenues(MM)FY164,500A185,709E211,657EGAAPEBIT(MM)FY69,380A73,348E86,543EEBIT Margin42.2%39.5%40.9%EV/EBIT17.85x16.89x14.31xSource:Com

5、pany Documents,Wolfe Research,FactSetNumbers may not add up due to rounding;Fiscal Year Ends DecemberRating:OutperformPrice:$484.66Price Target:$640%Upside:32.1%View META ModelView Comp Table Company Information52-Week Range$430-$737Market Cap.(MM)$1,061,356Enterprise Value(MM)$1,238,502Shares Out.(

6、MM)2,189.9Avg.Value Traded(MM)$7,337.22Price to Earnings20 xSI%of Float1.2%FCF Yield4.1%EV/EBITDA10.8xFCF/Share$20.05 800750700650600550500450400May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25METASource:FactSetPriced as of 04/21/25 Shweta K415-878-6425View Shwetas Research K