1、EQUITY:AUTOS&AUTO PARTSChina Auto/EVGlobal Markets Research25 November 2024EV players to further gain share in 2025Competition remains the key theme,from mass market,intelligent vehicle and PHEV/EREV anglesContinuing growth in 2025F for PV market;EV to further take share2024 YTD auto shipments in th

2、e China market have been higher than our previous estimates,helped by the governments trade-in subsidy policy.While expecting some front-loaded demand to shift from 1Q25 into 4Q24,we see potentially some further policy stimulus for the auto market in 2025F(such as a follow-up policy for trade-ins).H

3、ence,we are a bit optimistic for the entire market demand looking into 2025 and believe further demand growth can be achieved.Meanwhile,as EV players have been gaining pricing power,we expect them to be more active in grabbing shares from ICE car players,riding on this market trend.We raise our FY24

4、-26F China PV retail forecasts by 4%each and now expect 3.9%y-y growth in FY24F and 2.1%y-y growth each in FY25F/26F.We now forecast 22.5mn/23.0mn PV retail sales,excluding minivans in 2024F/25F.We revise down our export forecasts by 2-5%for FY24-26F with a cautious view on the overseas market.Our e

5、xpectation for China PV wholesales is generally unchanged,at+1%for FY24F and-2%for FY26F,vs our prior estimates.For the EV market,we revise up our EV retail penetration forecasts for FY24-26F by 4.2-6.5pp,and now expect PV EV penetration to reach 47.7%/57.2%/61.9%in FY24F/25F/26F.Within this,we beli

6、eve PHEVs/EREVs will continue to outperform BEVs and estimate 10.8mn/13.3mn total EV retail sales in 2024F/25F.BYD(1211 HK,Buy)remains our top pick within the sector,considering its leading position in the China market with its unique business model.Meanwhile,other active EV players within the EV se