1、EQUITY:TECHNOLOGYAsia EV batteriesGlobal Markets Research20 November 20242025F:resetting playing field and expectationsPotential landscape changes pose risks and opportunities for China and Korea Battery industry expectations are being reset,levelling playing field for allWith the new US Presidents

2、transition team reportedly planning to remove the USD7,500 electric vehicle(EV)tax credit(news),we see the likelihood of a change in the US carbon emissions/new energy vehicle policies.In our scenario analysis(Fig.1),we discuss the nine major policy/industry developments(e.g.,stricter EU carbon emis

3、sion norms from 2025,the US possible removal of IRA 30D/45W tax credits,lithium price recovery,import tariff hikes of upto 45.3%for China EVs in the EU,and strong ESS market growth).We highlight that the potential policy changes from the US/EU i.e.,higher tariff for Chinese EVs,batteries may not be

4、so negative for China,if the US decides to remove subsidy benefits for battery companies.Chinas cost-competitive batteries along with functional EVs are its distinctive strength,while Korea/Japan,despite being equipped with high-energy-density NCMs and long-standing relationships with Western EV OEM

5、s,may have to redesign their US investment strategies if the US downgrades IRA benefits for them.The potential opportunities for all the three countries should be a phase-out of less competitive companies,as evident in news of NorthVolt filing for bankruptcy protection in the US(not confirmed by the

6、 company;link)as the EV market faces oversupply.Our 2024-26F outlook:(1)global EV/PHEV sales growth of 20%p.a.,(2)new ESS catalyst,and(3)lithium price bottoming out in 1H25FNomuras auto team forecasts global BEV/PHEV shipments growth of 21.0%/20.8%/19.6%(y-y)to 15.7/18.9/22.6mn units in 2024F/25F/26