【招银国际】China Economy: Exports rebounded with headwinds ahead-250808（8页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 8 Aug 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Economic Perspectives-Exports rebounded with headwinds ahead Exports r

2、ebounded with headwinds ahead Chinas exports notably beat expectations despite further contraction in exports to the US,as ASEAN and Africa made up for 129%of the US loss since Apr.Exports of motor vehicles and chips remained strong while ships,personal computers and cell phones softened.Imports reb

3、ounded thanks to robust AI-related demand,as imports volume of copper ore,copper products and integrated circuits further picked up.Soybean imports from the US also quickly rebounded in May and June after the sharp decline in Apr,reflecting the steady progress in US-CN trade negotiations.However,we

4、see more headwinds in 2H25 to curb Chinas exports:1)payback effect from export front-loading;2)potential 25%secondary tariffs as Russian oil purchaser;3)effective tariffs have increased further after the trade deal,weighing on global demand and supply chain;and 4)40%tariff on export re-routing and s

5、uspension of the de minimis exemption has closed most of the loopholes to circumvent tariff.Looking forward,we expect Chinas export growth to decelerate from 5.9%in 2024 to 2%in 2025 while import growth may mildly slow down from 1.1%to 0.5%.USD/RMB rates may appreciate from the current 7.15 to 7.1 b

6、y year end.Exports edged up as exports to ASEAN and Africa compensated the US loss.Exports bounced up to 7.2%(all on a YoY basis unless specified)in July from 5.9%in June,beating market expectation of 5.8%.Exports to the US further slumped to-21.7%in July from-16.1%in June,as the impact of the tarif